Bleacher Report - Articles by Alex Walsh

Chicago Cubs Position Battle: Micah Hoffpauir or Derrek Lee?

Alex Walsh — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 16:12:00 -0400

It's early, but already there's been all kinds of press regarding Derrek Lee's slow start at first base.

Most Cubs fans know that Lee was at one point a very capable middle-of-the-order hitter. They fell in love in 2005, during a career year. Since then, the picture hasn't been nearly as pretty, as three-year declines in power are never a good sign.

To begin this season, Lee is hitting a paltry .217/.283/.348 through 11 games. Of course, this is an extremely small sample size. Furthermore, Lee's not alone in terms of slow-starting Cubs hitters. Free agent pick-up Milton Bradley and 2008 Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto have combined for only three hits so far.

But Bradley and Soto aren't as worrisome because they're aren't as high a risk to be in the declining portion of their professional careers. Bradley's numbers have continually been trending up over the past several years, and Soto is still a young dude. Neither of these hitters have three-year declines in power weighing them down at the plate.

Nor do they have 29-year-old lefty sluggers breathing down their necks.

Lee's hold on the starting first base job is being threatened by Micah Hoffpauir. Micah is 5-for-14 against righties this season, with two doubles to boot. His success against righties might force Lou Piniella to give some of Lee's at-bats to Hoffpauir when the team is facing a right-hander.

It's interesting to look at what a Lee-Hoffpauir platoon might be able to produce. Adding Lee's appearances against lefties to Hoffpauir's stats against right-handers generates a slash-line of roughly .421/.450/.526—an excellent line indeed.

If Lee's role in the offense is diminished anytime soon (either fewer at-bats, or a drop in the lineup), it will be interesting to see what Lou does with his lineups. A team that used just one left-handed bat in last year's NLDS will now be able to use up to four in a given lineup. Against righties, Lou may use something like:

Soriano-Fukudome-Bradley-Ramirez-Hoffpauir-Soto-Fontenot-Theriot-P

If Lee is dropped in the order against righties, it would seem to make sense for him to hit in the fifth spot, giving us a lineup of:

Soriano-Fukudome-Ramirez-Bradley-Lee-Fontenot-Soto-Theriot-P

We'll see what happens, I guess.

Despite Four Homers, Lilly Pitches Well

Alex Walsh — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 11:31:12 -0400

Considering Ted Lilly gave up four home runs last night, it's hard to categorize his start as a success. But putting Lilly's performance into context is crucial for understanding why the Bulldog's less-than-perfect stat line was exactly what the Cubs needed last night.

The Cubs pounded out an 11-6 win last night behind outstanding offensive performances from two left-handed hitters, Kosuke Fukudome and Mike Fontenot. Aramis Ramirez had an outstanding night as well. The balanced offensive attack was working at full capacity for at least one night.

While the offense certainly got the job done, it seems that many Cub fans are less impressed with the pitching of Ted Lilly.

Indeed, out of context, it wasn't a good start. Lilly gave up four home runs over five innings, and eight hits overall. He gave the Astros a good number of pitches to hit, and in some cases, they were able to knock the cover off the darned thing.

But you know what? That's exactly what Lilly was supposed to do.

Lilly used the large cushion afforded to him by his teammates to get through innings as quickly as possible. Although Lilly only pitched five innings, he needed just 73 pitches to do so. If that rate were to continue, Lilly would have been under 105 pitches through seven innings—a fine start indeed.

More importantly, of the 73 pitches Lilly threw, 50 were for strikes. Why is that number so crucial?

When you've got a big lead, the last thing you want to do is walk opposing hitters. Instead, a mindful pitcher will throw strikes, and force the opponent to put the ball in play. Sure, Lilly allowed four home runs, but because he didn't walk anyone, none of the home runs hurt him too badly individually; three were solo shots, and one was a two-run homer.

Of course, giving up four home runs is never in the game plan for a pitcher when he takes the mound. Lilly would have much rather won last night's game by a score of 11-0. Presumably, there are some adjustments Lilly needs to make going forward to limit the number of hits and long balls allowed. At the same time, Cubs fans need to recognize the context of Lilly's performance before completely throwing him under the bus.

It will be interesting to see how Lilly performs in his next start, which will almost certainly be closer than last night's game (although, who would complain about another 8-0 lead after two innings?). Because he's a fly ball pitcher, Ted will almost certainly give up another couple long fly balls, some of which may leave the yard. But a larger proportion of balls to strikes might force opponents to swing at more pitches out of the zone, increasing Lilly's strikeout numbers and keeping runs off the scoreboard.

Lilly's next start will likely come on April 13th, as the Cubs play their first game in Wrigley Field against the Colorado Rockies.

Chicago Cubs Should Stay the Course with Kosuke Fukudome

Alex Walsh — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 03:03:24 -0400

There was a bit of a surprise in store for the not-so-casual Cub fan at the end of the game on Monday night.

Lou's decision to send in Joey Gathright as a defensive replacement in the bottom of the ninth inning was a predictable one. But it was surprising to see who Gathright ended up replacing.

Going into this season the assumption was that, with a late lead, the Cubs would replace the infamously fragile Milton Bradley with a more defensively capable outfielder. Instead, on Monday night, Bradley was kept in the game.

Kosuke Fukudome, the man who posted one of the best defensive seasons in right field for the Chicago Cubs in recent memory, was benched.

The move had nothing to do with offense; the Cubs were in the bottom of the ninth inning away from home. Furthermore, if the Houston Astros were to make a comeback and tie the game up, Fukudome would be the next hitter due up.

The move is, unfortunately, understandable. Kosuke often looked lost in center field on Monday, lacking the "killer instinct" that his counterpart Bradley showed in a handful of outstanding plays. At the plate, he wasn't much better.

Of course, there's really only one way to solve this.

Lou has to keep Kosuke in the game.

There's still a really good chance that Fukudome can contribute this year. It's not that he's never played center before (he had tons of experience there in Japan), and it's not that he can't hit major league pitching (he had an outstanding first half last year). As far as this writer can tell, Kosuke is suffering from a lack of confidence.

The best remedy: Hit behind Soriano and in front of Lee. That way Fukudome will see lots of good pitches to hit, hopefully connect on a few of them, and get himself going. I imagine the defense will follow the offense in this case.

Give him a chance, Lou. I think this guy's still got something left.

Chad Gaudin May Not Fit in Cubs Pen

Alex Walsh — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 23:40:02 -0400

It appears the Cubs have a problem.

As the team decides on its 25-man roster for Opening Day 2009, several pitchers are making things tough on Chicago's management. Some of those pitchers, like the young David Patton and veteran Chad Fox, have been thoroughly impressive throughout the month of March.

Others have been flat out disappointing.

Angel Guzman, a talented pitcher, who has battled injuries throughout his professional career, can't quite seem to get it together. Jeff Samardzija, a fan favorite from 2008, has appeared hittable, and may benefit from more time in the minors.

And then there's Chad Gaudin.

Gaudin is currently sporting a 10.54 ERA this spring, with only nine strikeouts, and an equal number of walks, collected over 13.2 innings. His 20 hits allowed give him a WHIP well above 2.00.

Also noteworthy: the fact that Gaudin ended the 2008 season with 17 earned runs allowed over 15.2 innings.

Simply put, Chad's been bad.

Fortunately for the Cubs, it hasn't always been this way. Fans may recall Gaudin's July performance from this past year. During that time, Chad allowed only three earned runs over 14 innings, while posting a 1.00 WHIP and getting a strikeout per inning.

It's this previous success that will likely earn Gaudin a spot on the Cubs' Opening Day roster this year. There's also the added pressure from the fact that Gaudin is out of options, meaning he will immediately be made available to all major league teams if not kept on the Cubs' major league roster throughout this season.

If Gaudin is in fact listed on the 25-man roster, the Cubs will instead say goodbye to Guzman, who is also out of options. On the other hand, the Cubs may want to avoid the risk of Gaudin's underperforming in meaningful games, and attempt to package him with Guzman for prospects that could be stashed in the farm system.

If Gaudin fails to make the team, watch for Patton and Fox, who have earned a second look for 2009, to make some April appearances to try to prove their worth to the team. Behind those pitchers are Samardzija and Iowa prospect Kevin Hart, both high-potential strikeout machines who could contribute to the big league club in 2009.

This article is also featured at Bench Aaron Miles!, a Cubs blog run by Alex Walsh.

Chicago Cubs Preview: Predicting the Roster

Alex Walsh — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 20:57:21 -0400

Make no mistake: The Chicago Cubs of 2009 will most certainly be different from the 2008 team.

Gone are a pair of fan favorites in Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa. In their place, Kevin Gregg, Milton Bradley, and a number of other new faces will aim to buck the Cubbie trend of not winning the World Series.

Of course, for the Cubs to make any progress towards actually achieving their goal of world domination, they have to actually play some regular-season games.

Furthermore, before they get started on game No. 1 out of 162, they've gotta decide on who they'll put on the 25-man roster come Opening Day.

By my calculations, 19 of those 25 spots are already a done deal. For the sake of brevity, we'll list last names only, just so we can count to confirm. We've got: Soto, Lee, Fontenot, Ramirez, Theriot, Soriano, Fukudome, Bradley, Miles, Johnson, Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden, Marshall, Heilman, Cotts, Gregg, and Marmol.

Sweet Lou has said previously that he's afraid Larry Rothschild will punch him in the face if he carries any fewer than 12 pitchers, so we know what's left for Lou to decide upon this spring: He needs three more position players, and three more pitchers.

So who's it gonna be? Let's take a look at the "last six in" for the 2009 Chicago Cubs.

Koyie Hill, C - Hill has had an excellent spring with the bat, posting a .394/.444/.576 slash line. He's also a switch hitter, which will help Lou add balance to the line-up.
Micah Hoffpauir, 1B/OF - Hoffpauir is basically a younger, (slightly) slimmer Daryle Ward. Left-handed with power, he can spell Lee at first. Two major issues, though: lack of defensive versatility, and a propensity for striking out.
Joey Gathright, OF - Joey is a classic late-inning replacement outfielder. He'll provide solid defense in the field, as well as plus speed on the basepaths. Basically, a major-league ready Felix Pie.
Kevin Hart, RP - Since allowing four runs in one inning on March 8th against Texas, Hart has been dominant: 4.1 perfect innings, and eight strikeouts.
Luis Vizcaino, RP - Hasn't quite gotten going yet, but has quality major league experience all over his resume. He'll be an early-inning option against right-handers once the regular season starts.
Jason Waddell, RP - It's close between Waddell and Rule V pick David Patton. Both are young, and neither has pitched in the majors. But Waddell would be the second lefty in the 'pen. He's also a little older, and has some solid experience from the AA level.

Notable omissions from my 25-man roster would be two big-name pitchers: Chad Gaudin and Jeff Samardzija. I have substantial reasons for letting both guys start in Triple-A in 2009.

Samardzija needs to refine his entire repertoire. He's been exceedingly hittable this spring, giving up 15 hits in 10 innings. He's also walked four batters, along with just six strikeouts. He may very well be able to contribute later in the year, but to begin the season, Jeff should be working on his stuff in the minors.

Gaudin is in the same boat. He's given up the same number of hits as Samardzija, in fewer innings, with more walks, and fewer strikeouts. He may be useful yet, but at this point, he hasn't come anywhere near earning a spot on the major league roster.

So, there you have it: your Opening Day roster for the 2009 Chicago Cubs.

Any questions?

Alex Walsh is the creator of Bench Aaron Miles!, a blog that looks at position battles of the 2009 Chicago Cubs.

2008 NLDS Recap, L.A. Dodgers At Chicago Cubs: Facing The Facts

Alex Walsh — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 18:08:41 -0400

Let's talk facts.

Right now, the Cubs are losing Game 2, by a score of 6-0.
Tonight, five of those six runs allowed by the Cubs scored in the second inning, an inning that will go down as one of the worst in the storied history of this franchise.
The Cubs are cursed.

Whether you watched tonight's game or not, I think that's a list you can relate to.

If you weren't sitting there watching Game 2 of the 2008 NLDS, even if you didn't see it happen with your own eyes, you can at least believe it. Maybe you even expected it when you went to sleep last night--somehow, you knew the Cubs would screw this one up.

If you were watching, you would remember precisely what happened in the top of the second inning at Wrigley Field.

You'd have witnessed the hit-and-run. You'd have watched DeRosa's error. You'd have seen the error from our Gold Glove first baseman on the very next play.

If you were a Cubs fan, you would understand. But if you weren't, perhaps you'd need to hear it again, what everyone's been saying all year for so many years now, straight from One of Us:

The Cubs are cursed.

---

Coming into tonight's game, Game 2 of a five-game series, I was pumped up. Despite the loss in Game 1, as a Cubs fan I said to myself: if Big Z shows up and pitches well to start us off, we can win tonight.

I forgot to account for the past one-hundred years.

I forgot to consider the other aspects of the game that mattered just as much for the Cubs to have a chance in tonight's crucial matchup. Sure, pitching is important. But you've got to respond to good pitching with good defense. And you've got to support good pitching and defense with great hitting.

Despite what the final score (10-3, Dodgers) might suggest, in reality the pitching was there. Carlos Zambrano threw strikes (a vast improvement from last night's performance), and Dodger hitters kept rolling the ball right back to Cubs' infielders.

Unfortunately, the defense simply wasn't.

As for the hitting, it was never even close.

---

A week ago, things almost didn't make sense. As the regular season was coming to an end, the Chicago Cubs had somehow closed out the 2008 regular season with the best record in the National League. We had won the NL Central division, and we had clinched home field advantage for the first two rounds of the playoffs.

The Cubs' success over the course of six months had convinced many baseball fans that this was the best team in the league. This team had the best offense, arguably in all of baseball; on top of that, this was the deepest rotation in the NL.

Fans across the country were all saying the same thing—that this might be the best Cub team they've ever seen in their entire life.

Next thing you know, our Gold Glove first baseman was committing the second error of the second inning in Game 2, and in an instant, the series was lost.

As I write, edit, and publish this article, I realize the 2008 NL divisional series is not technically over. I realize the Cubs are headed to Los Angeles, and have one more game to play before this thing is really over.

But I also know the history behind the concept of coming back from down 0-2 in a five-game series. And believe me when I say, I know all about the professional sports franchise that calls itself the Chicago Cubs.

I know that the Cubs are cursed. And really, at this point, so should you.

2008 NLDS Preview, L.A. Dodgers at Chicago Cubs: The Pitching

Alex Walsh — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 17:29:23 -0400

Baseball fans are spoiled.

We get to watch our favorite teams play almost every day. Even on the off days, we can resort to cursing our most hated rivals into oblivion—there's always something going on. For most of the past half-year, we've really, truly been absolutely spoiled.

Now, the seasons of 21 teams are over. And for those of us with teams still playing for a World Championship (weird to hear from a Cub fan, I know!), we have no choice but to sit. And wait.

And wait.

And wait, as Monday becomes Tuesday, Tuesday becomes Wednesday, and Wednesday becomes a tripleheader of postseason baseball on Ted Turner's cable baby. For some—or, at least for me—it's a fairly agonizing ordeal in the meantime.

So what better way to pass the hours than with some good old-fashioned research and analysis?

Let's start where the ball starts—with the pitchers. And in this series, the first pitch will be thrown by a member of the Chicago Cubs' staff.

The Pitching - Chicago

As a staff, the Cubs are first in two very important pitching categories: strikeouts per nine innings and hits per nine innings. However, if they're tops at striking people out and not giving up a lot of hits, but fail to lead the league in ERA, there are really only two questions that need to be asked:

Do a lot of those hits go for extra bases?
Do they give up a lot of walks?

Turns out they're actually second in slugging percentage allowed (which measures extra base hits against), to another team that wears a lot of blue (we'll get to that later). So it must be the walks that are getting to them.

And it is.

The Cubs are last among NL playoff teams in walks per nine innings, and next to last among all playoff teams (Dice-K and the Sawx have the bottom spot locked up).

As for the Cubs' Game One starter, Ryan Dempster had a BB/9 of 3.31 this season. That puts him just under last year's league average. Of course, the Cubs will need better than league average this month to play deep into the postseason.

For Dempster to succeed on Wednesday, all he's gotta do is pitch like he did all year in 2008. Specifically, that means something like six or seven strikeouts, two or three walks, four or so hits scattered over seven innings pitched, and only half a home run.

I did say specifically.

We move on.

The Pitching - Los Angeles

The Dodgers' pitching staff also claims the league lead in a few crucial categories: team ERA, on-base percentage against, and slugging percentage against. However, while the Cubs' weakness lies in the base on balls, there doesn't seem to be anything in particular that the Dodgers are really bad at.

That translates to a tough time for Cub hitters over the course of the game.

Since there isn't really a weakness to talk about, let's get right into what the Cubs will need to do to score against Derek Lowe.

Since May, a month in which he was quite bad, Derek Lowe has given up four or more earned runs exactly four times. In those four starts, he walked only four batters, and gave up only three home runs. (Yeesh.) Looking at those numbers, the question remains: How did opponents score all those runs?

The answer: 37 hits, leading to 21 earned runs in 21 innings pitched. Only nine of those hits went for extra bases, so it's strings of singles that appear to be doing Derek in.

Lowe, a sinkerballer, needs the groundballs he induces from Cub hitters to find their way into defenders' gloves instead of the outfield grass. Limit the hits to limit the runs.

For the Cubs to score against Lowe, it appears they'll need to produce what every offense needs to win close games: productive outs and timely hits.

Although a home run here or there wouldn't hurt, either. Go Cubs.

This article is a continuation of a 2008 NLDS Preview that began on Monday, which can be read by following this link, here at Bleacher Report.

2008 NLDS Preview, LA Dodgers At Chicago Cubs: Can You Believe It?

Alex Walsh — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 08:32:00 -0400

I can't believe it.

I can't believe the Chicago Cubs will begin this postseason in the eyes of many sports fans as the favorites to make the World Series from the National League.

It's one thing to call the Cubs the best team in the National League, which at least in the eyes of this author, is simply fact. As they enter the postseason, the Cubs' only real "glaring weakness" is the issue of getting the ball from their starting pitchers (two of which are All-Stars) to their set-up man and closer (another pair of All-Stars themselves).

It's another thing to expect the Cubs to be in the World Series.

I mean, really? You're really going to ignore 63 years of failure? You're going to let ninety-something wins make you forget about years like 1969, and 1984, and 2003?

Yes, the Cubs are really, really good. But it's easy for many of these same sports fans, who have forgotten about things like Santo's black cat or the real perpetrator in 2003 (Alex Gonzalez, NOT Steve Bartman) to ignore the fact that facing these Cubs in each postseason series on the way there will be other really, really good teams.

Let's not look past the first of those teams, which as of today stands to be the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It's easy to guess what everyone will be saying about this LA team as the postseason begins. To put it one way, if the National League Division Series were to air on that station they used to call the Entertainment and Sports Programming Network, guys like Chris Berman would quite literally be constantly talking about one man in particular from the Dodgers' roster.

Manny Ramirez will almost certainly get all the attention of the press--he's the one name anybody knows from LA's team. What's interesting is the similar proportion of attention he's been getting from opposing managers while at the plate.

More often than any other player on the team, managers are refusing to pitch to Manny, and challenging other Dodger hitters to beat them instead. In 226 total plate appearances for the Dodgers thus far, Manny has been intentionally walked sixteen times. That's twice the number of intentional passes received by the next likely starter in their lineup, catcher Russell Martin—in roughly one-third the number of plate appearances. Martin has been intentionally passed only eight times in more than 640 plate appearances.

This statistic reflects what appears to be the dominant strategy in silencing the Dodger offense: don't let Manny beat you. Against a team that, on the season, ranks 12th in the National League in runs scored (and 3rd in their own division, arguably the worst in baseball, for that matter), this approach seems like it should work.

In stark contrast, the Cubs lead the National League in runs scored with 847. That's a difference of 150 runs scored on the season between these two teams.

The Dodgers' strength, however, is in their pitching and defense. They lead the National League in runs allowed, having only given up 644 on the year. The second place team in that respect?

The Chicago Cubs.

Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano both held the Dodger offense to one run while hosting the regular season series back in May. Those two are currently in line to start Games 1 and 2 of this NLDS in Chicago. Expect similarly low-scoring games in this series, with walks being a central issue to victory.

If the Cubs can draw the free pass and stretch out the opposing starter, and if Carlos Zambrano can limit his tendency to issue those free passes, the Cubs should be able to take this series and advance to the next round.

Perhaps then we'll talk about things like goats and what other things that have happened since the end of World War II—but not yet.

This 2008 NLDS Preview continues with an in-depth look at both teams' pitching staffs here, at the Bleacher Report.

Chicago Cubs Bullpen Takes Loss

Alex Walsh — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 19:04:01 -0400

The Cubs need to make a change in their bullpen soon. Tuesday night’s game in Tampa Bay should be proof enough of that.

With the game tied at one and Ryan Dempster's pitch count reaching 100 after just five innings, Lou Piniella was forced to make a difficult decision—who to call in from the 'pen so early in the game?

The Cubs certainly have a number of solid arms to choose from, but Chicago's Big Three should hardly be expected to handle four innings in the middle of the regular season.

Taking those three out of the equation left Lou with four choices to handle the sixth in the game that was then tied: Neal Cotts, Michael Wuertz, Scott Eyre, or Jon Lieber.

Lou went with Cotts, and soon regretted it.

Cotts was responsible for both of the runs scored by the Rays after Dempster left, including a first-pitch home run to Evan Longoria in the sixth.

He also opened the seventh with a two-base throwing error, allowing Akinori Iwamura, who eventually scored, to reach third base with no outs.

Even Cotts' outs were hit hard. He benefited from an outstanding play by Ryan Theriot on one ball, and a catch out in left from a ways back on the warning track for another.

Was Cotts the right choice for the inning, given the current make-up of the Cubs bullpen?

Yes.

It was too early for the Big Three; Eyre is the lefty specialist, not a middle-inning power reliever, and Lieber is the long man, for large leads or early departures by starters.

By deduction, then, the only other truly viable option was Michael Wuertz. And with a quick glance at Evan Longoria's lefty-right splits, it's easy to see why Lou brought in Cotts to start the inning.

Unfortunately for Cubs fans, Cotts failed.

Tuesday’s outing gives him a 4.91 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP on the season, not to mention a 1.83 WHIP in his past ten appearances.

These poor numbers seem to necessitate a change—either via acquisition, or with an in-house move. With neither Kevin Hart nor Sean Marshall looking particularly impressive out of the bullpen in limited action this year, most want the Cubs to move Cotts down to Iowa in exchange for Jose Ascanio, who, despite his handedness, managed to look decent in his limited time with the team.

If Ascanio doesn't succeed, perhaps we'll even see the Cubs' first draft pick of this year, RHP Andrew Cashner, get a shot in the majors later in the season.