Bleacher Report - Articles by Matt Moscardi

H-Y-P-E, Jets Jets Jets! Why the Jets are Undeserving of the New Hype (So Far)

Matt Moscardi — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 07:06:05 -0400

With Tom Brady collapsing into the annals of unfortunate knee-acronym casualties, there is a buzz that the AFC is open for the taking. The same buzz suggests a Favre-led New York Jets team may be the takers.

Pardon my insouciance, but really? One game does a season make?

Yes, the Indianapolis Colts fell to what will likely pan out to be a middling Chicago Bears team. Kudos to the Bears' resurgent defensive efforts, but the loss of Jeff Saturday and Peyton Manning's knee may have kept the Colts from posting the victory.

And let's face it, Marvin Harrison is not the dependable Marvin Harrison of 2006's Super Bowl year. He's the gun-toting, ball-dropping Marvin Harrison of late 2007.

Yes, San Diego crumbled in the face of what I believe will prove to be a tough-if-healthy Carolina Panthers team. But need I remind you that the Chargers are coached by Norv "I Can Still Lose Games After A 14-2 Year" Turner?

I can't, for the life of me, figure out how Turner continues to get hired, having never posted a playoff-caliber season and consistently doing his best to lose.

I expect a good deal of losses from a Chargers team that has, more or less, rested on the laurels of its past Martyball days. That said, the Chargers still have LaDainian Tomlinson, which is enough to keep them competitive all year.

So while I agree that there is more latitude in an aging AFC, the Jets are not the second coming. Not yet, anyway. They may be the second coming of the 2006, "Cover Your Eyes and Throw," Favre, but not the 2006, "How'd they go 10-6?" Jets.

1. The Jets defeated, at best, a marginal Dolphins team. The Dolphins went 1-15 last year. One and 15. In a league with as much parity as the NFL, going 1-15 is as hard as going 18-1.

While they made some improvements with the Bill Parcells recruits, Pennington included, they have a weak receiving-corps to compliment a below-average offensive line. Not to mention the loss of Jason Taylor means they have a weaker defense.

2. The Jets barely beat a marginal Dolphins team. Did anyone else hold their breath on the Favreian toss-up in the second quarter with seven minutes left on 4th-and-13?

Favre, under pressure, didn't look to the dump off, didn't look for the sidelines, and instead tossed up a prayer of a pass, hoping the right colored jersey came down with it. Doing it now, and the announcers get to say, "He's just having fun out there."

Do it all season, and the announcers get to say, "Another 20-pick season for the gun-slinger."

3. Favre was sacked three times, despite the addition of highly-paid captain, Alan Faneca. I don't think this will necessarily be the norm, but it does make you wonder how long it will take some of the new additions to totally gel.

The running game was successful, but if Favre keeps getting hit, injury is sure to follow.

4. The Dolphins almost won.

That's right, Pennington's last-second pass was just as Favreian, but not as lucky. One foot forward and it's a totally different headline. Not to mention Jake Long's multi-penalty, drive-killing afternoon.

I'm not saying the Jets can't be the team to beat. I'm just saying they're not.

The Patriots, Colts, and Chargers still have the chops to take it all in the AFC this year. Not to mention a Pittsburgh Steelers team that's strong, and maybe even a Denver Broncos team that's on the rise—still early on that one, too.

Incidentally, the Jets are favored by 1.5 points in Vegas this week over the Patriots. My money's on the Pats.

The NFL Bettor's Power Rankings

Matt Moscardi — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 04:58:36 -0400

For those of you who followed my articles and/or blog last year, I'm back with a venegence this year. After a major overhaul of my NFL statistics system, I've cracked the illustrious 60 percent win mark and am looking to see if I can keep it up.

This week will begin the weekly NFL Gambling Power Ranks, where I'll give you the team rankings and rank each game in terms of "best bets."

But before I get into the rank, I'll give the brief overview of how the rankings are formed. The three basic components for the power rankings are: performance, predictability, and importance.

The primary driver of the ranks, the performance-based metric, is "expected points." Based on the work of Football Outsiders, plus the addition of my own statistics, "expected points" represents the expected team performance against a league average opponent.

In the first few weeks, "expected points" (ExP) are weighted to a greater degree, and are lessened as statistics start accruing during the course of the season.

The second component is volatility (or "predictability"). What good is performance unless it's predictable? Using volatility algorithms from a career in finance, I've applied multiple volatile metrics to measure each team's predictability.

These don't really kick in until Week Three, as it's hard to measure volatility without data points, but as the season goes on, it gets much more useful.

The final component, and a new addition for me, is importance of the game. Last season, this was not a factor, and the ranks were skewed as a result.

A team with nothing on the line can afford to be more unpredictable in their performance. For instance, last year, Cleveland was on the cusp of making the playoffs. When I remove the game value from the equation, Cleveland's performances, despite the volatility, put them squarely in the mix with playoff contenders.

When I add in the game value, Cleveland's inability to perform when it mattered drops them back into the has been category.

All of these measures (and others) are used in determining the best bets every week. Without any more lip from me, here are the ranks and best bets:

Power Ranks		▲▼
1	PHI	▲1
2	GB	▲1
3	NE	▼2
4	SD
5	MIN
6	DAL	▲4
7	TB	▲1
8	IND	▼2
9	PIT	▲2
10	DEN	▲6
11	BAL	▲2
12	NYG
13	JAC	▼4
14	SEA	▼7
15	CAR	▼1
16	ARI	▲2
17	NO
18	CHI	▲1
19	TEN	▲2
20	NYJ	▲2
21	BUF	▲4
22	HOU	▼7
23	CIN	▼3
24	WAS	▼1
25	KC	▲1
26	CLE	▼2
27	MIA
28	DET
29	SF	▲2
30	ATL	▲2
31	OAK	▼2
32	STL	▼2

And this week's best bets:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd
1	NE	@ NYJ	+1.5
2	GB	@ DET	-3
3	TEN	@ CIN	+1
4	BAL	@ HOU	+4.5
5	NO	@ WAS	-1
6	PHI	@ DAL	+7
7	MIN	v. IND	+2
8	SD	@ DEN	-1.5
9	CHI	@ CAR	+3
10	OAK	@ KC	+4
11	BUF	@ JAC	+5.5
12	MIA	@ ARI	+6.5
13	TB	v. ATL	-7.5
14	SF	@ SEA	+7
15	CLE	v. PIT	+6.5
16	STL	v. NYG	+9

I love the NE pick, and I think there's a definite overreaction to Brady's (tragic—I am a Pats fan, after all) injury in Vegas. Not to mention the Jets BARELY beat last year's worst team.

I also love the GB pick, but I'm not in love with TEN. Kerry Collins is a little too cromagnum for my tastes, and I think Carson Palmer will be out to prove he's still got an ability to win, even with Senor Ocho Cinqo.

BAL is another good pick in my opinion, and as long as Flacco remains marginal, they should have a solid season ahead of them.

WAS is another team I just don't get, I think Jason Campbell is totally overrated, and Jim Zorn is totally confused. Big money has poured into PHI after the STL thrashing, but it'll be a tough contest in DAL.

I hate the MIN pick, and I think IND will crush them, but the stats do the picking, I just do the cringing.

Look for more commentary here and more articles on Bleacher Report to come.

Best of 2007: The Asterisk, and Why It’s Your Fault

Matt Moscardi — Fri, 28 Dec 2007 04:39:52 -0500

An NBA referee caught gambling on his games. Bill Belichick caught filming the Jets' defensive signals. The Mitchell Report highlighting rampant steroid use in MLB. Floyd Landis stripped of his 2006 Tour de France title. Marion Jones stripped of her Olympic gold medals.

The asterisk.

The papers splash “Scandal”, the talking heads on ESPN bark about morality, and holier-than-thou fans decry cheaters at every turn.

Even Congress, in the midst of two wars, healthcare failure, social security issues, infrastructure problems, and legal shenanigans, manages to make time to “clean up baseball.”

The players deny it, the coaches deny it, the clubs deny it, and the leagues claim they'll rectify the situation.

But has anyone really taken responsibility?

And in this litigious culture, don’t we need someone to blame?

More than anything, the sports scandals of 2007 have given fans cause to question the fruits of athletic labor. Barry Bonds will forever be hounded by allegations of steroid use. Every football fan that hates the Patriots now has an excuse as to why their team didn’t win.

There's that asterisk again. It’s the modern scarlet letter.

But underlying every cheat, every edge, every scandal is one thing:

You.

The fan. The rabid, headhunting, mob-loving fan.

Behind every shady injection, behind every winning edge, is the almighty dollar. As a financial analyst, it’s easy to understand why teams resort to cheating, if for no other reason than to level the playing field.

Follow the money. It goes from our wallets directly to the teams and leagues.

When we complain that “baseball has gotten boring,” they shorten fields and turn a blind eye to mysterious power surges. When we say “parity sucks,” they do anything to stay dominant.

Why?

Because otherwise we stop caring, or we stop watching, or we stop talking about them.

It’s business—you want the biggest, baddest, fastest, most compelling team. The players themselves are ultimately just very highly paid show horses—the real money is in the team and the league.

As a fan myself, I have to admit I'm the real reason behind this year’s biggest sports story. There would be no cheating if there were no money, and there would be no money if there were no fans.

The day ESPN stops making scandals important is the day scandals stop being important.

You don’t hear much about HGH use in Canadian curling, do you?

Matt Moscardi writes for the blog Mental Handicap, which takes hedge fund-like approach to NFL gambling.

NFL Week 17 Best Bets: What Has Vegas Been Smoking?

Matt Moscardi — Thu, 27 Dec 2007 12:46:58 -0500

Vegas has gone nuts. Abso-frikkin-nuts.

Indy +6.5 at home against Tennessee? Just because the Titans need the win? Really? I think Tom Moore could suit up and receive passes from Sorgi and they could STILL beat the Titans this week.

Don't forget, while the marquee players only play for a quarter or two, the real money players on the front lines almost never sit. That means even when they run with Kenton Keith, Indy will be running behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, no matter what Albert Haynesworth is doing.

Jacksonville +6? Seattle +2.5? And, on the flip side, Cleveland -9???? Giving nine points? Since Week 8, all but one of their games have been settled by less than 9. The one "blowout" win? They beat Houston by 10 in week 12. How likely is it that they win by 9 at this point? I would say pretty freaking unlikely. And so would the box.

Here are the early picks:

THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. TB +2.5 v. CAR @Home	40.5
2. SEA +2.5 v. ATL Away	40.5
3. CIN -2.5 v. MIA Away	38.5
4. GB -3.5 v. DET @Home	40.5
5. OAK +8 v. SD @Home	41.5
6. PIT +3.5 v. BAL Away	40.0
7. JAC +6 v. HOU Away - Bet Soon	42.5
8. SF +9 v. CLE Away - Bet Soon	40.5
9. NO -2 v. CHI Away	43.0
10. IND +6.5 v. TEN @Home	43.5
11. DEN +3 v. MIN @Home - Bet Soon	42.0
12. NYG +14 v. NE @Home - Bet Soon	45.0
13. BUF +7.5 v. PHI Away	43.5
14. DAL +9 v. WAS Away - Bet Soon	43.0
15. STL +6 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon	37.5
16. KC +6 v. NYJ Away - Bet Soon	39.0

I like that one-two punch in Seattle and TB—TB coming off an embarrassing loss (that won me some $$ last week) and Seattle coming off an even more embarrassing loss, despite not needing the W at all.

I know the Colts and Cowboys are lower conviction picks, but I can't help be drawn to those games that clearly feel like they were handicapped to reflect public sentiment more than team performance. Week 17 is an excellent week for arbitrage I think, as the "who will play" frenzy that factors into the spreads is often overwrought. In fact, if the Box were Vegas and ignored the statistics, here's how it would have handicapped this week:

	Vegas	Vegas
Fav	Guess	Actual	Dog
NE	-14	-14	NYG
PHI	-3.5	-7.5	BUF
GB	-5	-3.5	DET
NO	-4	-2	CHI
HOU	3	-6	JAC
CAR	4	-2.5	TB
CLE	-13	-9	SF
CIN	-6.5	-2.5	MIA
ATL	9.5	-2.5	SEA
WAS	9.5	-9	DAL
PIT	-8	3.5	BAL
ARI	-7	-6	STL
SD	-7	-8	OAK
MIN	-4	-3	DEN
NYJ	-3	-6	KC
TEN	10	-6.5	IND

There are some giant shifts there—owing entirely to public sentiment. If the spread was like the stock market, this is a nice bear market chance to make some money on quality teams that are undervalued because of mob mentality.