Bleacher Report - Articles by Mark Raines

2009 Cincinnati Bearcat Football Preview

Mark Raines — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:44:47 -0400

By my count five different teams have been picked to win the Big East Conference this year by various sources. People seem to think the Bearcats will finish anywhere from 1 to 5 in the league.

Coming off of their first Big East Championship (and first outright league title in decades) can the Bearcats repeat?

With the target on their backs and a defense that only returns one starter it would seem a tall order. In good news, however, Brian Kelly remains the coach of the Bearcats and the offense returns almost entirely intact...with all that in mind lets take a detailed look about what to expect this season.

On Defense:

The first thing everyone notices about this Bearcat defense is everything they lost. Gone are drafted secondary members Mike Mickens, DeAngelo Smith, and Brandon Underwood. Gone is Big East sack leader and second round draft pick Conner Barwin. Gone is All American Defensive Tackle Terrill Byrd.

All told the Bearcats lost 10 of 11 starters. Also missing is Bearcat defensive coordinator Joe Tressey with his 4-3 zone defense and in his place steps Bob Diaco with his aggressive 3-4. Truth be told this Cincinnati defense could not at first glance look any more different from the 2008 version that helped lead the Bearcats to a Big East Championship.

The good news is this may not be as bad as it appears. The Bearcats appear to have a big, strong, and fast defensive line. Every player returning contributed positively last season. By all accounts Derek Wolfe has been an imposing force throughout camp.

At 6'5 and over 300 pounds Wolfe offers a combination of size and skill that has been rarely seen on the Bearcat defensive line. He seems ideally situated to be a force at nose tackle.

Combined with other strong, athletic players like John Hughes, Rob Trigg, Ricardo Mathews, Alex Daniels and Dan Giordano I have little doubt the Bearcat defensive line will be able to occupy offensive lineman and allow the linebackers plenty of opportunities to make plays. Any added pressure these guys can put on the quarterback will be a complete bonus for the defense.

With the defensive lineman making life very difficult on opposing offenses it should free up space for the linebackers and safeties to make plays. The starting safeties for Cincinnati are ideally suited to do just that. Aaron Webster was great against the run last season. He was consistently in on tackles, delivering big hits, without allowing big yards.

When healthy, Bearcat coaches have been very impressed with the play of Drew Frey and I have little doubt he will be very solid in run defense.

Linebacker is a position with far more questions, but lets start with the good news. The outside linebacker position in the 3-4 defense seems like an ideal place to showcase the skills of Curtis Young. Young was somewhat limited in action last season playing behind all Big East defensive end Conner Barwin, but in that limited action he yielded four sacks and 8.5 tackles for a loss.

Young is the type of player who can line up with his hand on the ground at more of a defensive end position and can play straight up like a linebacker. I look for him to be disruptive in opposing backfields all season long.

Andre Revels becomes the full time starter for the first time in his career at middle linebacker. Revels has been solid essentially splitting time with Manalac 50-50 over the past two season.

The rest of the Bearcat linebacking corp does not lack for strength or athleticism.

Former quarterback Demetrius Jones may be the most athletic player on the Bearcat roster. Craig Carey and Marcus Waugh have also taken their abilities and moved to the defensive side of the football.

Players like Colin McCafferty, J.K. Schaffer, Robby Armstrong and Dorian Davis will get their chance to make plays. These linebackers probably have more athletic ability than last years and I think this will translate into players who perform strongly against the run all season.

Which brings me to the big question for the Bearcat defense... pass defense.

How well will these linebackers, playing in a completely new system and starting for the first time be able to understand and execute the pass defenses Bob Diaco asks them to play? If the Bearcat defense is going to struggle to me this is the obvious area that will give them problems.

Beyond the linebackers, will the Bearcats be able to adequately replace the contributions NFL bound Mickens, Smith and Underwood were able to give them?

I have a great deal of confidence in Dominique Battle because he was able to do it on the field late last season. Brad Jones has the experience and the size, but he has not been asked to be a full time corner before... will he be up to the task?

The Bearcats will need Battle, Jones and some of the other young cornerbacks like Reubon Johnson, MJ James, Chris Williams, and Camerron Cheetham to step up in a big way if they are going to repeat as Big East Champions.

All in all I feel very good about the Bearcat run defense and see some obvious questions when it comes to their pass defense. If the Bearcats can answer those concerns they can be every bit as good, if not better than last years championship squad.

On Offense:

There has never been a season where I have had more confidence about a Cincinnati Bearcat offense heading into week one. In Gino Guidugli's final season he had a completely new head coach who ran a different type of offense.

When Brian Kelly arrived he was trying to switch from power running to shotgun spread and was trying to do it with a relatively undistinguished transfer QB with pins in his arm.

Last season everyone was wondering would it be Mauk, Grutza, Pike or someone else leading the show? When Coach Kelly decided on Grutza everyone remembered his mediocre career as Dantonio's starter. Could Kelly turn him into a star?

Eventually Grutza went down and Pike took over leading Cincinnati to a Big East Championship. The great part about that was now Cincinnati fans have an idea of what they can get from Pike and the possibilities have us excited.

Not enough is being made of the fact that this is the first time Brian Kelly has known his quarterback going into the spring since he was coaching at Division II Grand Valley State.

Think about that for a second.

Think about how good Brian Kelly's offenses have looked at Central Michigan and now at Cincinnati and remember that he has done that without getting an entire offseason to really prepare one quarterback.

Tony Pike has been the guy all offseason. He has taken the first team reps, been able to continually up his connection with his receivers and running backs, enhance his feel for the offensive lineman and their protections, as well as really master the offense.

Last season because of all the injuries and uncertainties the Bearcats slowed things down. They did not get to the line as fast or change the pace like they had in Kelly's first season.

Now with Pike being the guy and being prepared all offseason I expect to see everything Kelly wants to throw out there this season. To me this is huge and the biggest story going into the season for Bearcat football. I just cannot imagine this offense not clicking on all cylinders.

This of course would be less relevant if the Bearcats had lost a bunch of players on offense, luckily that is not the case. Pike has back his entire left side of the offensive line to protect his blind side in Linkenbach and Kelce, as well as he gets his starting center back in Chris Jurek.

The Bearcats are replacing the right side of the line, but they are doing so with talent that saw plenty of action last season and have the potential to be very good. Alex Hoffman, C.J. Cobb, and Sam Griffen are expected to really solidify the offensive line.

The Bearcats have their top three running backs returning and fans expect to see more of play making type backs such as Isaiah Pead and Darrin Williams this season. Perhaps the deepest position on the Bearcat roster is wide receiver where they return first team all Big East wide receiver Mardy Gilyard as well as talented contributors Armon Binns, D.J. Woods, and Marcus Barnett.

With all of this talent back, an entire offseason working with Kelly, and the prospect of repeating as Big East Champions; I have little doubt Tony Pike will lead this offense to huge accomplishments this season. I really believe this will be the best Bearcat offense of the modern era.

On Special Teams:

You do not replace Kevin Huber. The man led the nation in net punting back to back seasons. I am not sure how often that happens but I am willing to bet it is incredibly rare. I have never seen a punter consistently put the ball inside the 10 or at the very least 20 as often as Huber did.

When the Bearcats were banged up it was Kevin Huber that allowed the Bearcats to play much more conservatively than I am sure Brian Kelly is used to or ideally wanted to. My hope is the Bearcats get solid punting. If they do that I really feel with the strong offense they can offset the loss of Kevin Huber. Still in close games against top notch defenses that is a worry.

Throwing out Huber, however, I am very confident in Bearcat special teams. Mardy Gilyard took two kickoffs back for touchdowns in 2008 and was one of the premier kickoff returners in the country. I think D.J. Woods has to potential to come into his own as a punt returner this year.

Jake Rodgers has gotten his share of grief as a Bearcat but his sophomore year was considerably better than his freshman year and when you look at the numbers he was very good. Now he has another year of experience.

He already has a huge leg (3-4 from 50+) and I really believe this is the year he puts it all together and becomes a huge weapon for the Bearcats (though ideally we will be scoring touchdowns not field goals).

Season Projections:

@ Rutgers, Monday September 7: Talk about an enormous way to open the season. This is a Labor Day conference game against two of the favorites to win the conference. This really is a game the Bearcats cannot afford to lose if they want to win the Conference.

Rutgers is returning a bunch on defense and their offensive line is completely intact from last year. They do, however, lose their quarterback and top two receivers. I really believe there is not a better time to catch Rutgers, because once they get their quarterback situation settled they are going to be as good as anyone in the league.

Rutgers has the advantage of playing all of the projected contenders at home (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and South Florida). If Cincinnati can win this game they will have a huge leg up on the other contenders who will have to go to Rutgers after they get their QB situation in order. Leaning Towards Win

Southeast Missouri State, Saturday September 12: The first home game of the year should be a route. WIN

@ Oregon State, Saturday September 19: A huge non-conference road trip where the Bearcats will really get the opportunity to represent the Big East. Two years ago the Bearcats absolutely abused the Beavers at Nippert.

Oregon State has one of the best running backs in the country in Jacquizz Rodgers. They return a good amount of starters from a team that tied for second in the Pac Ten. It is never easy to win in Corvallis...just ask Pete Carroll and USC who lost the last 2 times they went there(including last season).

I like the Bearcats' ability to stop the run, but this will be a very difficult road environment. Tossup

Fresno State, Saturday September 26: Fresno State is always a tough non-conference test for BCS teams. They seem to always come ready to play and have consistently competed for WAC titles.

This game is sandwiched in between a trip to the west coast and a traditional rivalry game so we have to hope the Bearcats remain focused. That being said I do not anticipate a loss. WIN

@Miami (OH), Saturday October 3: A rivalry that is going to be one-sided for a while. WIN

@ USF, Thursday October 15: The Bearcats are lucky in that they get their first bye week to prepare for a Thursday night game at league rival USF (USF also has a bye so it is not an advantage).

The Bearcats have owned the Bulls and particularly Matt Grothe the past few seasons, however, this game has an interesting twist with former Bearcat defensive coordinator Joe Tresey running the Bulls defense.

Tresey and his knowledge of the Bearcats and what they do scares me a bit, but in the end I still like this team to get the job done. Leaning Towards Bearcats

Louisville, Saturday October 24: Homecoming... I know it is a rivalry, but I expect Louisville to be really bad. WIN

@Syracuse, Saturday October 31: It is Syracuse...they are starting a Duke Flopper who has not played football in four years at quarterback... I have confidence. WIN

UCONN, Saturday November 7: Big revenge game for the Bearcats who absolutely fell apart last season in the forth quarter against UCONN. Last year was the first game where I have really questioned Kelly's strategy as he refused to run the ball even with Anderson looking awful.

UCONN is never an easy team to play. They are well coach and have plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I really do not think they have enough offense. WIN

West Virginia, Friday November 13: It is Friday the 13th and the Bearcats have a huge conference game against WVU. To me this is the game that really could decide the conference championship. West Virginia had owned the Bearcats in Big East play up until last season.

I personally believe that Brown is going to do a very good job running an offense that will be very balanced this year for the Mountaineers. Can the Bearcats beat the Mountaineers and repeat as Big East champions?

I think being at home gives the Bearcats a slight advantage... very slight. Leaning Towards Bearcats (barely)

Illinois, Friday November 27: The Bearcats get a week off to refocus after the WVU game. That is nice, because this is another great chance for the Big East to show what they have out of conference.

It is hard to know what to expect from Illinois. Last year they really struggled, two years ago they made the Rose Bowl. The talent is there, will they perform? I say not in a hostile Nippert. WIN

@Pittsburgh: I think the loss of McCoy hurts more than many believe. Pittsburgh has a very good defense, but to me not as dominate as some have made it out to be. I think the Bearcats are able to score enough to win while Pittsburgh struggles to run the football on the Bearcat defense.

This game scares me a bit because if Pittsburgh can get consistent production from the quarterback position they could be as good as anyone in the conference (and potentially a top 15 team). I, however, have not seen anything to really prove that will happen. WIN (but worries me a little)

Looking back at my projections I have seven solid wins for the Bearcats to go with one win that worries me a little, three leaning towards win and 1 true tossup. Of those five non wins I am going to assume the Bearcats lose no more than four and lose at least one.

With all that said my range for the Bearcats this season is 8-4 to 11-1. I am leaning towards the higher totals that fits with my projection that has many of the tossup type games as close Bearcat wins.

My projection is 10-2 with a 6-1 or 5-2 conference record. If we go 6-1 in conference I think we have a great shot at a Big East Championship. Looking at everything I still think the Bearcats have the best odds of any team in the conference to win the Big East. (Last year my projection was 11-2 and said if 1 of the wins was at WVU we'd be Big East Champions)...

So there you have it. Monday cannot get here soon enough. Still to come this week is my full Big East Preview... until then... OHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHH OH OH OH OH UC!!!

NCAA Tourney Opening Round Games I Am Looking Forward to

Mark Raines — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 13:47:00 -0400

Thursday

8 LSU vs. 9 Butler (Greensboro, 12:20pm)

I love how the NCAA committee gave no respect to the SEC...frankly, the SEC did not earn respect. I like this Butler team. They are young, but they have showed a lot of promise.

8 BYU vs. 9 Texas A&M (Philadelphia, 12:30 pm)

Another 8 vs. 9 matchup between a mid-major and power conference team. I like Texas A&M in this game, but I always like to see the non-power conference get a win, and BYU certainly has a solid squad.

5 Purdue vs. 12 Northern Iowa (Portland 2:30 pm)

The Missouri Valley has traditionally been a tough out in the NCAA tournament. Northern Iowa is not particularly athletic, but they play smart basketball and can shoot the ball.

As everyone knows by now, 12 seeds almost always beat a five seed at least once in the NCAA tournament. I do not think this is the matchup, not because Northern Iowa is not capable, but because Purdue is really playing well right now. Purdue with a healthy Robbie Hummel is a fine basketball team and can make a nice run.

7 California vs. 10 Maryland (Kansas City 2:55 pm)

Both of these teams have top-notch coaches. Maryland made the necessary run they needed late in the year to make the dance. On their best night the Terps are capable of beating anyone. Cal has been more consistent throughout the season...still, I like the ACC over the Pac-10 in this one.

4 Washington vs. 13 Mississippi State (Portland 5 pm)

With their backs to the wall, Mississippi State made it happen. They won four games in four days to earn their way into the Big Dance. My favorite part of March every year is almost every team in America gets to play until they lose, so in that sense the conference tournaments are an extension of the NCAA tournament...everyone is alive.

Anyone who has not seen Jarvis Varnado play is missing out. He reminds me of Kenyon Martin. Though he does not have the offensive skill Kenyon displayed, he is a better shot blocker...the best in the country.

7 Texas vs. 10 Minnesota (Greensboro 7:10 pm)

The first of the games featuring a mediocre Big Ten team. Minnesota has had their moments this year, but I do not think they are good enough to beat Texas when they play well.

7 Clemson vs. 10 Michigan (Kansas City 7:10 pm)

Clemson has been really falling apart down the stretch. I also have no confidence in any Clemson team to win anything. John Beilein is a heck of a coach. This is a game I think Michigan can win.

4 Gonzaga vs. 13 Akron (Portland 7:25 pm)

I think Gonzaga is capable of making a nice run this year, but I am always interested in seeing the Ohio teams. The MAC has not won an NCAA tournament game in years, I believe since Antonio Gates was killing it at Kent State. I expect that trend to continue.

6 UCLA vs. 11 VCU (Philadelphia 9:50 pm)

Two years ago Eric Maynor lit up Duke as VCU pulled a big first round upset (also as an 11 seed). Maynor is averaging 22 points per game in his senior campaign, and he is aided by sophomore big man Larry Sanders. VCU is certainly capable of a big upset.

5 Illinois vs. 12 Western Kentucky (Portland 9:55 pm)

Another possible 12/5 upset. Western Kentucky was in the Sweet 16 last season. They are probably not as good this time around, but Illinois has been a bit up and down. They will likely be without or at the very best with the limited services of their starting point guard. (And that concludes day one.)

Friday

8 Oklahoma State vs. 9 Tennessee (Dayton 12:25)

Another 8 vs. 9 battle, and this could be a high-scoring game. Both of these two teams like to run. Tennessee has been very inconsistent, but they have the talent to give teams trouble.

Quick tangent here...the sound at wherever I watch the games in Vegas needs to be on the Dayton Regional where Bill Raftery is doing color commentary. Raftery is the Babe Ruth of sports announcing: He defines the position.

Whether he’s telling you what defense a team is starting in (MAN TO MAN) or telling you how clutch a player is for making a huge play (ONIONS) or announcing a game as a Pitt player breaks the backboard (“Send it in Jerome!”), Raftery brings this flair to the job that is fun, but not over the top. Raftery understands the game but does not annoy you with his own personal agendas.

Bill Simmons can have Gus Johnson...I’ll take Bill Raftery every time.

3 Kansas vs. 14 North Dakota State (Minneapolis 12:30)

Two of the last three years Kansas has been eliminated in round one (by Bucknell and Bradley). North Dakota State is a great story, making the NCAA tournament in their first year of Division I college basketball. They redshirted this year’s senior class a few years back so they would be available for their first year in Division I. Ben Woodside is scoring over 22 per game and has gone for 60 this year.

I do not think North Dakota State will do it, but I am very intrigued by this game (particularly since Kansas has lost to Texas Tech and Baylor in the last two weeks).

6 Marquette vs. 11 Utah State (Boise 12:30)

People think Marquette is done without Dominic James. I know they have lost five of six, but those games were to one seeds and three seeds (yeah, every loss), and three were ridiculously close. I think they are getting their act together. I am anxious to see them come to play against Utah State (and in the next round I think their guards are too good to be bothered by the Missouri press).

I also do not know what it is about the Boise location, but it always seems to produce the best NCAA tournament early round games. I swear one of these years I am going to make a trip to Boise for the opening rounds.

6 Arizona State vs. 11 Temple (Miami 2:45 pm)

Another 6/11 game of intrigue. James Harden vs. Dionte Christmas will be a really good matchup.

6 West Virginia vs. 11 Dayton (Minneapolis 3 pm)

West Virginia has really been valued this year by guys like Ken Pomeroy who calculate offensive and defensive efficiency. They are one of six teams in the country to be in the top 20 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency (every champion since 2005 has had that trait).

Bob Huggins is 13-3 in his career in first round games and has not lost an opening round game as anything higher than an eight seed. I think WVU makes a statement here, and I look for them to make a run.

5 Utah vs. 12 Arizona (Miami 7:10 pm)

I think a five seed was very generous for Utah (I had them as a seven). Many people do not think Arizona earned their way in, but they have some big time quality victories. With Arizona it always depends on which team shows up. I think they have a great set to pull the “upset.”

7 Boston College vs. 10 USC (Minneapolis 7:20 pm)

Boston College is another team with some great wins and bad losses. The USC Trojans have been facing elimination since Pac-10 tournament play began. I like their chances to continue their run of success.

4 Xavier vs. 13 Portland State (Boise 7:25 pm)

Reading up on Portland State, they are a much more dangerous team for Xavier than I originally thought. I think they are going to really pressure Xavier’s point guards, which tends to result in turnovers for X. The key for Portland State will be hitting threes. Xavier has lost five of their last 10 and at times to teams not as good as Portland State. This could be another game where the magic of Boise shines through.

4 Wake Forest vs. 13 Cleveland State (Miami 9:40 pm)

I thought Wake Forest earned a three seed, but the committee thought differently. A three seed would have produced a much more favorable matchup. Cleveland State is very good, having already beaten Syracuse and played WVU pretty tough this season. If Wake Forest shows up and plays their best, they will win, but they have struggled against lesser teams from time to time this year.

8 Ohio State vs. 9 Siena (Dayton 9:40 pm)

Can Siena overcome the home court advantage that Ohio State will have? Siena is a very good basketball team that as a 13 seed last year was able to advance to the second round. This year they get a better matchup, but in a tougher venue. Ohio State seems to be playing their best basketball. I expect them to move on, but Siena should give them a fight.

5 Florida State vs. 12 Wisconsin (Boise 9:55 pm)

I think Florida State was very under-seeded. They are a really good team. The more I have looked at Wisconsin’s résumé, the less impressed I have been. Bo Ryan’s teams are always dangerous, but I think the Seminoles take care of business.

Most Likely First Round Upsets in order of likelihood...I think you will see four or five (11 seeds and below)

12 Arizona over 5 Utah
11 VCU over 6 UCLA
11 Temple over 6 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky over 5 Illinois
13 Mississippi State over 4 Washington
13 Cleveland State over 4 Wake Forest
11 Utah State over 6 Marquette
12 Wisconsin over 5 Florida State
14 North Dakota State over 3 Kansas
13 Akron over 4 Gonzaga
11 Dayton over 6 West Virginia

Sleeper Teams that can make the Sweet 16 and beyond, in order of likelihood (seeded six and below...I think there will be three to five)

West Virginia
Marquette
Texas
Western Kentucky
Michigan
Arizona
Clemson
Tennessee
Southern Cal
Boston College
Mississippi State
Maryland
VCU

Six Final Four Sleepers (Three seeds and Below)

Syracuse
Villanova
Purdue
West Virginia
Gonzaga
Florida State

My Final Four

Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Memphis

Championship

Pitt over U of L

Ranking the Bubble: Early Championship Week

Mark Raines — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 11:44:00 -0400

It is very difficult to predict what the NCAA Selection Committee will do, because their criteria seems to be very subjective. They do have a list of things they look at, but often to justify who gets in they stress different criteria.

My criteria for the ranking the teams on the bubble is basically as follows:

1. I don't want to rank who is the most talented or who I believe is the BEST team...I want to rank who has done the most to warrant a bid.

I value winning games against other tournament teams and winning games against other teams on the bubble. It is also important to prove you can win games away from home.

A team that has shown an ability to win games against multiple NCAA teams away from home will get favorable treatment. There is also a ton to be said for consistency.

A team like Maryland this season has two great wins (North Carolina and Michigan State), but a lot of bad losses. On Maryland’s best day, they are a tournament team, but their best days are few and far between.

2. I have one slight bias. I tend to favor Conference Champions from small conferences over teams from major conferences with a lacking resume. A team like George Mason a few years ago receives very few chances to play teams from the major conferences.

If they have shown they can compete with those teams AND been the dominant team in their conference I am inclined to give them the opportunity in the NCAA over teams like Florida and South Carolina from this year which yea have some good wins but has not really done quite enough with the opportunities they have been given.

This year, the Mountain West offers San Diego State and New Mexico who fit that mold. Another team like that is Creighton out of the Missouri Valley.

There are three conferences that I think will remain one bid leagues regardless of who wins their conference championship, but it is possible I could be wrong: the Southern Conference (likely Davidson), the MAAC (Siena), and the WAC (Utah State)...I think Siena is the most likely of that group to win an at large bid.

There are other conferences where we could see the at large pool shrink if there are some upsets, so those on the bubble will be pulling for the conference favorites: the Mountain West (BYU or Utah), the A10 (Dayton and Xavier), the WCC (Gonzaga), the Horizon (Butler) and Conference USA (root for Memphis).

Right now I have 21 teams competing for the last nine at-large spots. The number of at-large spots could shrink if there are upsets in the above conference tournaments. With all that in mind here is how I would rank the bubble right now.

Off the Bubble (earned their way in)

Boston College- Boston College finished with a winning record in the ACC, which should be good enough to get them in the NCAA tournament. BC has two of the best wins in the country having taken down both North Carolina and Duke so they have proven they can compete with anyone.

BC is 4-4 against the RPI top 50 with three of those wins coming against the RPI top 25.

Dayton- Their wins against Xavier and Marquette are excellent. Their RPI numbers say this is a tournament team. If the bubble field was stronger perhaps Dayton would sweat longer, but this team is in.

Dayton is 4-2 against the RPI top 50.

Ohio State- Their win against Northwestern to get to 10-8 in the Big Ten cemented their status as an NCAA tournament team. Ohio State has looked shaky at times, but boasts five wins over the RPI top 50. When you look at those victories in detail they are not spectacular.

They beat a Purdue team without Hummel at home, they swept bubble team Michigan, beat bubble team Minnesota and beat NCAA bound Butler. Still, the five wins and a bubble that has faded at the bottom will keep Ohio State in the dance.

BYU- 24-6, a first place finish in a pretty strong Mountain West conference and good wins over Utah, San Diego State and New Mexico will be enough. BYU sits at 22 in the RPI...only Missouri State in the committee’s inexplicable 2005 selections has missed the NCAA tournament with an RPI that low.

Texas A&M- They have exactly what the committee says they want from bubble teams good wins inside and outside of the conference. They have beaten LSU and Arizona in their non-conference slate and now have victories over Texas, Oklahoma State, and Missouri in Big 12 play.

Texas A&M is 4-5 against the RPI top 50.

Tennessee- Their computer numbers are too good and they played too good a schedule to not make the NCAA tournament. This is one of the more inconsistent teams in the country.

They lost this weekend to Alabama, were swept by Kentucky and lost to Ole Miss in conference play.

Their wins over Marquette, Georgetown and their sweep of SEC bubble teams South Carolina and Florida...combined with their No. 1 Strength of Schedule and good RPI numbers will keep them in the dance.

Arizona- It is strange to think a team that lost four of five down the stretch and only finished .500 in a mediocre conference is probably safely in the NCAA tournament, but that is exactly the case for the Wildcats.

Arizona is also only 2-9 outside of Tucson Arizona. To their credit the Wildcats have five top-50 victories including wins over Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Washington and UCLA. The strength of those wins will carry Arizona into the dance.

On the Good Side of the Bubble (In my opinion, for now)

Wisconsin- The Badgers have the best RPI of all the Big Ten teams on the massive Big Ten Bubble (by my count there are five and that does not include Ohio State, who some still consider a bubble team).

The Badgers have finished relatively strong (compared to the rest of the fading bubble) going 7-2 down the stretch. The Badgers swept two fellow bubble teams in Michigan and Penn State. They also have home victories over Illinois and Ohio State.

Oklahoma State- the Oklahoma State Cowboys will be one of the more interesting cases on selection Sunday. They have played one of the nation’s better schedules and have inflated RPI numbers as a result.

They own victories over bubble teams Siena and Rhode Island as well as conference foes Texas A&M and Texas. Still, the Cowboys are only 4-12 against the RPI top 50 including 0-5 against the RPI top 25.

In truth they have played a ton of very good teams but won a very small percentage of those games. I think the committee will reward them for playing a tough schedule and getting what wins they did get, particularly with the rest of the bubble fading.

Penn State- Because of a very poor non-conference schedule Penn State has the lowest RPI of all of the Big Ten bubble teams, but they have been one of the better performs and have the best wins.

The committee tends to reward road wins and the Nittany Lions have two enormous ones over Michigan State and Illinois. They have three other RPI top 50 wins beating Minnesota, Purdue and Michigan at home.

Those wins and a 10-8 record in the Big Ten probably have Penn State on the right side of the bubble on selection Sunday.

Michigan- Michigan got a very important victory this weekend over Minnesota to move to .500 in Big Ten play. That might have been necessary, but now their big wins really come into play.

Michigan played a difficult slate of non-conference games and came away with wins over UCLA and Duke. They also have victories over Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue. They have six victories over RPI top 50 teams, which is among the best for all of the teams on the bubble.

San Diego State- The Aztecs have probably become third in line for a bid out of the Mountain West Conference. A week ago I thought they were a long shot to make the NCAA’s, now I think they are going to be one of the last teams in.

They do seem to lack some big wins. They have beaten Utah, New Mexico and swept UNLV. An early loss in the Mountain West tournament would probably doom their chances.

Minnesota- Minnesota lost an opportunity to lock up a bid against Michigan on Saturday. The Golden Gophers still can make a compelling case with a great non-conference victory over potential No. 1 seed Louisville on a neutral court.

They have four other top-50 RPI wins over Illinois, Ohio State, and a sweep of Wisconsin.

A win over Northwestern in round one of the Big Ten tournament will likely be enough.

Providence- The more I look at Providence the more I think they lack an NCAA caliber resume. They did finish 10-8 in one of the toughest conferences you will ever see, and have two great wins beating a virtually lock for a No. 1 seed in Pitt and an immensely talented Syracuse team...but that is really the only meat on their resume.

Providence is only 2-8 against the top 50 and 6-12 against the top 100. To be fair to Providence many of those losses are to the brutal top of the Big East, which few teams could probably get many wins against.

To be a lock I think Providence is going to have to beat Cincinnati and Louisville in the Big East tournament (assuming Cincinnati gets by DePaul). A win over Cincinnati probably puts them teetering on the edge, dangerously close to not getting a bid.

Creighton- Creighton’s entire body of work is in place. Them staying in the tournament will largely depend on the performance of bubble teams around them like Providence, Minnesota, Miami (Fl), and Virginia Tech...as well as surviving the possibility of upsets in conferences like the Atlantic Ten, Mountain West, and Horizon.

Creighton won a very solid Missouri Valley conference and was red hot down the stretch. They are 3-2 against the RPI top 50, their best win being against Dayton. They have other solid wins over Northern Iowa and New Mexico.

They were 8-4 in road games this season and the committee loves true road wins. At 26-7 with an RPI of 39 I think they are sitting in fairly good position...their biggest issue is if some other teams play their way in they will be in trouble.

New Mexico- As of right now they are my last team in the NCAA tournament and I am not entirely comfortable with that. They finished with only three top-50 wins to four losses and have some less than desirable losses against Texas Tech, Central Florida, and Drake.

They did, however, win 10 of their last 12 including wins over Utah, BYU and San Diego State (all ahead of them in the pecking order). It should be noted that all three of those wins were at home. They still may need to beat Utah in the second round of the Mountain West tournament to make the NCAA’s.

On the Wrong Side of the Bubble (Once again in my opinion…for now)

UNLV- At some point a few great wins can only carry you so far and I think UNLV has finally reached that point. UNLV has a road victory over Big East champion Louisville, a sweep of NCAA bound BYU and a victory over Utah.

They, however, have some bad losses of late against RPI 107 Wyoming, 156 TCU, and 196 Colorado State. They finished fifth in the Mountain West (a conference that is not getting five teams and though I have four in right now I doubt they will get four by Sunday), were swept by fellow bubble team San Diego State and lost recently to New Mexico.

I think UNLV may need to make the finals (beating San Diego State and then BYU for a third time) to get a bid. Some great wins have carried UNLV for a while, but I do not think they will carry them in at this point.

Kansas State- The Wildcats are severely lacking in their out of conference resume. They are 7th in the Big 12 pecking order. They have wins over Texas, Texas A&M and Missouri (all tournament teams) but that is about it.

Their 10-7 record in the Big 12 is solid, but their 102 Strength of Schedule and 77 RPI is not. They have a first round bye in the Big 12...I think they will need to get to the finals to warrant a bid (they’d likely have to beat Texas and Kansas).

Virginia Tech- They have two premier road victories over Clemson and Wake Forest but after that their season was filled with a ton of heartbreak. They lost on a half court shot to Xavier, lost on a last second shot to Wisconsin and lost late to Georgia.

They have lost 6 of 7 to close the regular season and finished below .500 in the ACC. They are only 2-8 over the RPI top 50 and 6-11 vs. the RPI top 100. Virginia Tech does have a victory over Boston College and a road win over fellow bubble team Miami.

Their first round ACC game against the Miami Hurricanes is essentially an elimination game...the loser will not make the tournament. I then think they will have to beat North Carolina to make the tournament.

Miami (Florida)- They have a very similar resume to the Hokies. They finished 7-9 in the ACC with a sweep over Boston College to their credit.

The Hurricanes split with Maryland and have two very good victories over Wake Forest and Florida State. Miami is only 2-7 against the RPI top 50 and 7-10 vs. the top 100.

A loss in the first round to Virginia Tech and they are done…even with a win I think they will have to beat North Carolina to earn a bid.

St Mary’s- If St Mary’s fails to win the West Coast Conference tonight they will be a headache for the selection committee. I happen to believe they should not make the tournament. Their biggest problem is they only have two victories over potential NCAA tournament teams.

Their best wins are over San Diego State (a bubble team at best) and Utah State (another bubble team who I do not think will get in without an NCAA bid). All of their bad losses came when star Patty Mills was hurt, in fact they are 18-1 with Mills in the lineup.

Still, without the high-caliber wins, I still think it is automatic bid or bust for St Mary’s.

Northwestern- They played their way back on to the bubble by racking up some great wins. The Wildcats can claim road victories over Michigan State, and Purdue. They have other wins over Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.

They did very little to distinguish themselves out of conference, and finished below .500 in Big Ten play. They are out right now, but with a run to the Big Ten tournament finals...I think they still have an outside shot.

Rhode Island- The loss to Massachusetts probably killed their chances for an at-large birth. Rhode Island’s resume is better than you might think at first glance.

They have good wins over Temple and Virginia Commonwealth to go with victories over Penn State (likely NCAA team) and Dayton (an NCAA lock). They finished second in the Atlantic Ten.

If they can beat Dayton again and then make the A10 finals would that be enough? Maybe. I think the loss would have to be to Xavier and they would have to be competitive.

Temple- They have a solid RPI and finished in that 3-way tie for second in the Atlantic Ten. They have wins over Rhode Island, Penn State and Tennessee. If they can beat Xavier in the A10 tournament they will be in the conversation.

I still think Temple probably has to win the Atlantic Ten tournament to get a bid.

Maryland- At 65 they have the lowest RPI of all the ACC bubble teams. To get to 8-8 in ACC play all they had to do was beat Virginia...they failed. Maryland has two great wins against North Carolina and Michigan State. T

hey are 3-8 against the top 50 and split games with Miami (Florida) and Virginia Tech. Still Maryland only looks like a tournament team about 25 percent of the time. They have losses to Morgan State and Virginia.

They must beat NC State and Wake Forest to be considered for an at large bid.

South Carolina- About the only thing I can say for South Carolina is they finished 10-6 in the SEC East. They have one victory over the RPI top 50 and that is over the Florida Gators (49). They are 7-7 against the RPI top 100.

Other than Florida, their best win is probably Auburn followed by a sweep of quickly fading Kentucky. I just do not see how this team is NCAA worthy (as much as a would love to watch Downey in the dance).

About the best thing I can say for them vs. the other SEC bubble teams is that they did not lose to Georgia. If they beat LSU to make the SEC tournament finals maybe you can consider them, but even then I think their resume is very thin.

Florida- Another of the SEC bubble teams with incredibly meager resumes. Their game against Auburn in the second round of the SEC tournament will be an elimination game. Then they must at least beat Tennessee to be in consideration (I still think they may have to win the SEC tournament to earn a birth).

They have two top 50 victories over Washington on a neutral site and over South Carolina. They are only 2-7 on the road.

Auburn- Another team that may actually have to win the SEC to make it, but I will include them on the bubble. The Florida game will be an elimination game, then they have to beat Tennessee to be considered.

They did absolutely nothing in the non-conference (their best victory was against Virginia). They did, however, finish 8-1 down the stretch beating Tennessee and drilling LSU at home this weekend. I think the SEC is at best a three-team league, and could be a two-team league (though a surprise conference tournament champion for a second straight season would not surprise me at all).

Siena- They have great RPI numbers, but their best wins are over Niagara and Northern Iowa. They did their job of making the conference tournament finals, but I still think they need to beat Niagara tonight to go to the dance.

Off the Bubble...Must win their conference tournaments

Davidson
Utah State
Kentucky
Cincinnati
Georgetown
Notre Dame

Bubble Look: Cincinnati Vs. Kentucky

Mark Raines — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:52:00 -0500

I am still of the belief that Cincinnati makes the tournament if they can win their last two games and make the quarterfinals of the Big East (they'd have to likely beat DePaul and either Providence, Syracuse, or WVU to do that...the Providence game, if that happens, would likely be an elimination game).

I am still a little baffled by how anyone can distinguish between the résumés of say Kentucky and Cincinnati and put UK on top. The obvious answer is right now Kentucky beat four teams in most projected tournament brackets, while Cincinnati only beat two.

But let’s look closer, and the wins are not very different.

For both teams their best win is WVU, though it is a better win for UK because it is on a neutral site.

They both have sweeps against two fading teams who have played great schedules and have strong RPI numbers in Georgetown for UC and Tennessee for UK (I know Georgetown and Tennessee are on opposite sides of the bubble, but their profiles do not differ too much).

The Bearcats' win over UNLV on the road is a better win than Kentucky's home win over Florida.

The main difference in the teams is who they have lost to. Kentucky's worst losses are VMI, Ole Miss, Mississippi State (whom UC smoked), Vandy, and twice to a South Carolina team with one top 50 RPI win (Kentucky was smoked by South Carolina in their second meeting).

The Bearcats' two worst losses are getting swept by Providence, which is comparable to the sweep of UK by South Carolina. Other than that, their losses are to top 25 teams (and for the most part top 15): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, Xavier, Memphis, and Florida State. That is a murderers' row of games.

So UK and Cincinnati essentially have the same wins, but Kentucky has way worse losses. The quality of teams it has taken to beat Cincinnati this year is infinitely better than the teams it has taken to beat UK.

I know this is just one example...one side by side comparison, but to me it is a good one. In the end, every single Cincinnati loss could be to an NCAA team. How many bubble teams in the country can make that claim?

My First Analysis of the Bubble

Mark Raines — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 13:59:00 -0500

After Cincinnati get smoked yesterday I spent some time doing basic analysis of the bubble ( I don’t like getting too in depth until championship week).

I wanted to see who we are competing with for bids. I started off doing comparisons of basic numbers and wins and trying to rank teams 1 to 65 (I got to 60 when they started to be less relevant). Then I spent some time figuring out which are the 1 bid leagues and how many spots will be available to the other leagues.

My rankings are still in the early stages so I won’t share them…but I will show you my analysis of what I see the bubble being at this point.

Here are the teams I still think are fighting for at large births. Every team ahead I think has almost secured their spot in the field.

As of right now I have listed 20 teams competing for nine at larges spots. I have 19 conferences listed that I am pretty positive will be one bid leagues, no matter what. A 20th, the Missouri Valley I think has a good chance to be a one bid league but Creighton could steal a bid if they lose in the conference tournament finals.

There are three conferences I am assuming will be one bid leagues regardless of the conference tournament results that may not have been at various points in the year: the Southern Conference (likely Davidson), the MAAC (Sienna) and the WAC (Utah State)…I don’t see either of those three getting an at large bid.

There are conferences where we want to root for the teams already in the field, and potentially could be dangerous for teams stealing bids: the Mountain West (root for BYU, Utah or UNLV), the A10 (Root for Dayton and Xavier), the WCC (Root for Gonzaga), the Horizon (root for Butler) and Conference USA (root for Memphis).

I am willing to bet that one or two of those leagues will see upsets that shrink the at large pool. So keep that in mind…the nine spots that look available now could shrink and worst case scenario they could shrink by five (I think this is very unlikely).

The following teams are the 20 fighting for the nine spots available today. I have not done an in depth analysis but I do have some initial thoughts.

Texas A&M: Might need to beat Missouri or make a run in the Big 12 tournament. I like their chances because they have some good non-conference meat with wins over LSU and Arizona.

Oklahoma State: Really good computer numbers, but really only a few decent wins (Sienna is borderline, Texas A&M is bubble all over, and they beat a struggling Texas team at home)

Miami (fl): They should get to .500 in the ACC. They have some nice wins. I still think they’ll need 1 or 2 in the ACC tournament

VT: I don’t like their chances…They would be in now, but their schedule down the stretch is brutal…they almost have to beat either UNC at home or Florida State on the road. If they do either they will most like make it.

UNLV: Interesting case…they may finish as low as fifth in the Mountain West and yet they have some great wins on their resume. I think they may become mute because their conference tourney is in Vegas and I would bet on them.

Providence: I think they need to either beat Villanova or make the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament

Kentucky: A loss to Florida puts them firmly on the bubble. UK has some solid wins and the sweep of UT may help, but they have lost to some bad teams.

Michigan: Their great wins make them hard to ignore, but if they lose to Minnesota I think they are out.

Cincinnati: I am getting more and more confident that winning out and getting to the Big East quarterfinals will get UC in. A lot depends on what other teams do, but looking at what some others have left I still think we may be dancing. The other thing that would help tremendously is if UC gets those wins they’ll be 8-4 down the stretch…significantly better than most of their competition for bids.

Penn State: They have nothing out of conference but a lot in conference. If they win one of two I think they are in pretty good shape.

South Carolina: Killer loss to Vandy. They may need to beat Tennessee to get in.

Resume’s start getting weaker here.

Florida: Incredibly weak resume. If they lose to Kentucky they are done baring a run to the SEC tournament finals. A win against Kentucky keeps them alive.

Creighton: Hopefully they will just win the Missouri Valley tournament…but short of that they may need a run to the finals.

San Diego State: I think they are outside looking in, with little chance to play their way up. They have to win their last two (one is against UNLV) to have a shot.

Maryland: They have two great wins and not much else. I think they may have to beat Wake Forest or make a deep ACC run.

Georgetown: Great wins keep them in it, but they have to make a deep run in the Big East. I don’t know what to think about them…you don’t want them to steal a bid from UC, but it would be difficult to leave out a UC team that beat Georgetown twice if they made the tourney.

All of a sudden that would give Cincinnati tourney wins over WVU, UNLV, two over Georgetown and maybe one in the Big East tournament. That would be a damn good resume.

Rhode Island: Probably needs to win out and beat X or Dayton again in the A10 tournament.

Minnesota: I think they are done. I think they need to sweep this week and I don’t see it.

Notre Dame: Has a lot of work left to do in the Big East tournament

Kansas State: they are a long shot and need a deep run at this point.

Judging by all of this I think the top 11 has being in better shape than the bottom nine…I guess we will wait and see.

But of that top 11 right now there are nine spots available (I know someone like Lunardi has UC in their next four out, which may be true today, but I think Florida is hurting, I think SD State is hurting, I think Maryland must beat Wake…just judging by what is going to happen the rest of the year I still like where we are).

As I said I do not think the nine spots hold up, but I like our chances of getting one. Not all those teams up there are going to remain down the stretch. If UC takes care of business until the Big East quarterfinals and plays a good game in the quarters I would bet on them getting in. By then the sting of Syracuse will be long forgotten.

Why the Cincinnati Bearcats Should Still Have NCAA Aspirations

Mark Raines — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 11:32:56 -0500

The Power of Positive Thinking

There are 11 games left in the basketball season, and the Bearcats have officially matched their win total from last season. At this point it is really hard to project how the rest of the season will go, so I am not going to even try.

Last season the Bearcats got their 13th win on Feb. 20 and then went on to lose seven more times without picking up a win. This team is considerably better than that one, so I expect the season to go better this time around.

Instead of projecting, I want to look at what the Bearcats need to do to make the NCAA Tournament.

Many of you may be thinking that the NCAA tournament is out of reach this season, but we are the University of Cincinnati, and the NCAA tournament is exactly where our eyes should be fixed. I think there is a lot of confusion about what the selection committee looks for in terms of NCAA tournament teams, so let’s get out the myths right away.

1. The Selection Committee does not factor in conference affiliation. Playing in a better conference helps insofar as you have opportunities for more quality wins and play a better strength of schedule, but the committee does not count the number of teams in each conference when they are selecting the teams.

2. RPI is purely a grouping mechanism. It is used to get a feel for how many quality wins a team has. In the end it is supposed to come down to the most deserving teams based on their body of work. You will see teams with lower RPIs ahead of teams with higher RPIs all the time.

3. The other polls do not matter one bit. The committee does not look at them at all. They discuss the teams, who they have beat, and what they thought when they saw them play. In fact, when you start looking at seeding, you notice how little it really reflects the polls (though the polls generally get the top seeds close to right).

With all that said, it is time to evaluate the Bearcats to date in much the same way the committee will do come March. As of right now, the Bearcats sit at 59 in the RPI. This is not important in and of itself; what is important is who they beat and who they lost to.

Five of Cincinnati’s seven losses are to teams in the RPI top 25. Those losses are not really hurting the Bearcats. The Bearcats' other two losses are to Providence, a team ranked 65th in today’s RPI. These are the losses I worry about come Selection Sunday. Providence, in beating Cincinnati twice, would clearly get the nod if both were sitting on the bubble (though there is always the possibility both could get in).

The Bearcats have three solid wins to their credit. UNLV and UAB are both currently sitting in the top 50 RPI (43 and 45 respectively). The UNLV win could loom particularly large for the Bearcats because it will be a road win against a team that likely is going to finish on the good side of the bubble.

Mississippi State has a lower RPI, but if they could somehow win the SEC West, that could help the Bearcats. Both UAB and Mississippi State are likely to be sitting on the wrong side of the bubble come Selection Sunday (admittedly there is a lot of basketball to be played).

Here are the basic numbers you need to know about the Bearcats right now.

They are 0-5 against the RPI top 25.

2-0 against RPI 26-50.

1-2 against RPI 50-100 (both losses to Providence).

2-0 against 101-150.

And 7-0 against sub-150 RPI teams.

(This is another issue that hurts the Bearcats. The committee does not look positively when more than half of your nonconference wins are against teams with sub-150 RPIs. It should also be noted that the Bearcats only have 12 victories according to how the committee will evaluate because one of their wins was against a team not factored in the RPIs.)

All in all, the Bearcats are not in bad shape right now, but they are going to have to play significantly better basketball to make the Big Dance. I still think losing to Providence twice could loom large, but looking at the rest of the schedule, the Bearcats have plenty of opportunities to play their way into the dance.

I have bolded some games that are as close to must win games as you can have (they are St. John’s, @South Florida, and Seton Hall). For the Bearcats to be an NCAA team they almost certainly have to win those games. I think 4-4 in the other eight games will get the Bearcats into the NCAA tournament. That would put the Bearcats 20-11 overall and 10-8 in the Big East.

I think at 3-5 in those eight games the Bearcats would be left with some work to do in the Big East tournament, but could play their way in with a run to the semifinals (which would likely include winning three games).

Jan. 28: No. 23 Georgetown 7:30 PM ET

Feb. 1: at No. 21 Villanova 12:00 PM ET

Feb. 4: No. 22 Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET

Feb. 7: at No. 23 Georgetown 12:00 PM ET

Feb.: 11 St. John's 7:30 PM ET

Feb. 14: at No. 3 Pittsburgh 4:00 PM ET

Feb. 21: No. 7 Louisville 2:00 PM ET

Feb. 26: West Virginia 7:00 PM ET

Mar. 1: at No. 15 Syracuse 2:00 PM ET

Mar. 3: at South Florida 7:00 PM ET

Mar. 7: Seton Hall 12:00 PM ET

The question then becomes: Where do those wins come from? The two key four-game stretches are Georgetown/Villanova/Notre Dame/Georgetown and Pittsburgh/Louisville/West Virginia/Syracuse...at least on paper, the latter looks significantly harder.

If the Bearcats can somehow manage to go 3-1 in the next four games, it will be time for Bearcat fans to get excited. That is no doubt a tall order, but one that could really pay off huge.

If the Bearcats go 2-2 the next four games, I think things start to look a little more bleak, but there will still be hope. If the Bearcats go 1-3, I think you can close the door on an NCAA bid.

So let’s say the Bearcats win the next three games before losing to Georgetown on the road. They then manage to spoil Huggy Bear’s homecoming and take out the Mountaineers. That would give the Bearcats 5-6 top 50 RPI wins with two of those wins possibly being top 25 wins. It would give the Bearcats 20 wins and a winning record in the toughest conference in the nation. That is an NCAA tournament profile.

All in all, we are not in terrible shape. The chance will be there to play our way into the tournament over the course of the next few weeks. It is going to take significant improvement. It is going to take big-time efforts night in and night out, but it is very possible.

The next four games are enormous for this team. By the time they are through this stretch, we may start getting a pretty good idea of where the Bearcats are heading come March.

Cincinnati Bearcats Close In On Possible Big East Title

Mark Raines — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 07:07:19 -0500

Premature shouts of BCS filled the air Saturday night in Morgantown, West Virginia. DeAngelo Smith had just intercepted Pat White on forth and goal from at the two yard line, giving the Bearcats the ball back with roughly three minutes left.

At that point the Mountaineers were going to need a series of small miracles to have any shot at winning the game. Bearcat fans were filled with jubilation. High fives were in high demand, fans were hugging each other, and shouting at the top of their lungs…the cold was no longer even relevant.

Mountaineer fans piled out in droves. By the time I finished celebrating with the Bearcat faithful around me I noticed that the WVU fans I had been talking with throughout the game were long gone.

The Bearcats needed just one first down to ice the game. As I listened to the students shout “BCS, BCS,” I got a bad feeling in my stomach. The Bearcats still needed three victories to definitely win the conference, and heck they still had not closed out this one.

They ran the ball three times because the clock was their number one ally then lined up to punt the ball away. After a delay of game penalty Kevin Huber took a safety instead of punting out of his own end-zone. I turned to everyone around me and said “that just kept them alive, this could cost us.” (Well there may have been more profanity involved and I may have been yelling, but that is the gist of what I said)

The Bearcats had not allowed two touchdowns the entire game… West Virginia was not going to score two touchdowns in just over a minute…it just was not happening. Sure enough the Bearcats helped WVU out again by getting a personal foul penalty helping set up a quick touchdown and the Mountaineers converted the two point conversation.

West Virginia fans are now piling back into the stadium as everyone lines up for an onside kick with 18 seconds to play. I am covering my face in disbelief and shouting mercilessly at my friend (as if he had anything to do with the Bearcats taking a safety and the events unfolding as they had).

The onside kick was a high bouncer right to the Bearcats; it was one that should have been fairly easy to field and end the game. Instead Marcus Barnett and Mardy Gilyard jump into each other and the ball winds up in the hands of West Virginia.

17 seconds remain in the game and all the Bearcats have to do is make a tackle in bounds. As long as the pass does not go long and to the sidelines this game is still over. Inexplicably that is exactly what happens and West Virginia sets themselves up for a 52 yard field. My friend next to me says “He’s not going to make a 52 yarder,” but as soon as it came off his leg everyone in that stadium knew overtime was coming.

The West Virginiafans near the UC section rightfully started chanting “BCS, BCS!” The place was going crazy as piles of WVU fans continued to pour in. Every Bearcat fan around me was in absolute shock.

This was a game the Bearcats dominated throughout and because of missed opportunities and a series of small miracles it was now in overtime: how could they recover? And yet the Bearcat defense came up huge again holding WVU to three points after Terrill Byrd made another huge play getting a sack of Pat White.

And then the offense came out, an offense that had mustered up one first down the entire second half. They snapped the ball four times in overtime producing a 10 yard gain, an eight yard penalty, a six yard gain and a two yard touchdown pass…game over. Should we have expected anything else?

Bearcat fans stayed at the game for 25 minutes high fiving, hugging, and taking pictures. A big contingent walked out of the stadium shouting, “Ohhhh Ohhhh Ohhhh…Oh Oh Oh OH… UC!!!” I have never in my life been to a game where the spirits of the fans changed so quickly from high to low and back to high. It was a draining, but ultimately an amazing feeling.

It is impossible to undersell how good the Bearcat defense was on Saturday night. I lost count of the number of times they managed to stop the Mountaineers on second, third, forth and short.

They became the first team since 2001 to hold West Virginia under 100 yards rushing and only allowed one run the entire game of 10 yards or greater (a 15 yard run by Pat White in the first quarter). Terrill Byrd had his best game of the season absolutely blowing up the middle of the WVU line.

The rest of the defense was nearly as impressive. They made open field tackles, they ran down the very fast West Virginia skilled players and they forced turnovers.

Is this the biggest win in Bearcat history? Probably. However it is step one…the Bearcats have three huge games moving forward and they must continue to take care of business. Step two is this week at Louisville.

The Cardinals have won nine of the last 10 games against Cincinnati, however, they have been just dreadful the last two weeks. There is no reason the Cincinnati Bearcats cannot take care of business, particularly if the defense is as forceful as they were last Saturday.

Going into the season this game really worried me, right now it does not worry me nearly as much. I think the Bearcat defensive line will once again control the game. Louisville is very dependent on their freshman running back, Victor Anderson.

The Bearcats have continually shut down opposing running backs over the last three seasons. The most important thing for the Bearcats will be to protect the football. I truly believe they are going to have to beat themselves to lose this game.

I do not want to sound overconfident. I know there is plenty that can happen and the UCONN game is still fresh on my mind. I was frustrated at the premature “BCS” chants last week, because this team still has plenty of work to do.

Still, like other Bearcat fans I am starting to feel it. We all knew this could be a very special year going into the season. On Friday night the Bearcats will once again control their own destiny in their quest for a Big East Championship. The next step toward that end is taking back the Keg of Nails and beating Louisville.

If the Bearcats protect the ball and stop Victor Anderson I see know reason the large Bearcat contingent making the trip (come on Bearcat fans get down there) won’t be giving out hugs and high fives as Tony Pike takes a knee to end the game.

And if we are all lucky it will be without the near heart attack of this past weekend. A Big East Championship looms three games away and there ain’t no stopping them Cincinnati Bearcats.

Can Any Team in College Football Run the Table? Texas Sits First in Top 25

Mark Raines — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 18:53:00 -0400

It has been a few weeks since I gave a top 25 write-up. Since that time there have been numerous upsets: We have seen USC, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Auburn, LSU, South Florida, and many other teams falter.

As of right now, no more than three BCS conference teams will run the table (and really, I think Penn State is the only team with a good shot at doing so). This is shaping up to be a college football season very similar to last season.

For a hypothetical, what happens if everyone has two losses except an unbeaten Penn State and an unbeaten BYU? Does BYU get a shot at the National Title? Will that scenario convince the major conference that a playoff is indeed necessary?

1. Texas

If you beat number one, you have probably earned your spot at the top of the rankings. Colt McCoy should be the early Heisman trophy favorite. Yesterday against Oklahoma he completed 80 percent of his passes, took care of the football, and rallied the Longhorns from 11 down.

I do not think Texas can make it through a very difficult upcoming stretch unscathed. I think eventually their suspect passing defense will catch up to them, but this team has to be the favorite to win the Big 12 South right now and could definitely be in the national title game.

2. Alabama

They may have a more complete resume than Texas at this point in the season. The Crimson Tide defense has been absolutely killing opponents this season.

The more I look at Alabama’s schedule, the more I think they could make it to the SEC Championship without a loss. Every week is tough in the SEC, no doubt about that, but I am not sure the SEC is as dominant as we all thought it was going to be.

Tennessee, Auburn, and Mississippi State are all games the Tide should win. Next week against a pesky Ole Miss is a big test, and then there is the trip down to LSU on Nov. 8. I still do not think Alabama will run the table, but their schedule really does set up nicely for them down the stretch.

3. Penn State

Is Penn State the third best team in the country? I do not know. I do think Penn State is the major conference team most likely to run the table and reach the national title game. The game at Ohio State in two weeks promises to be enormous and likely will decide the Big Ten.

I know Penn State has had problems beating Michigan in recent years, but something tells me that game is going to get ugly next week. Penn State was incredibly impressive against Oregon State and Wisconsin and looked very impressive against Illinois as well. If Penn State runs the table and makes the National Title game, it will be well earned.

4. Oklahoma

I still think they are the best of the one-loss teams and probably the best team in the country, but they were exposed some against Texas. I know they were banged up on defense, but the Sooners have looked suspect against good passing attacks this year. In a conference with so many potent passing offenses, that could be a cause for concern.

The other area where Oklahoma has struggled this season is kickoff coverage. This loomed large yesterday as Texas really started to change the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown. The loss to Texas pretty much takes their destiny out of their hands.

5. USC

The Trojan defense has been a force since the Oregon State loss. They put on a clinic yesterday. In a very down Pac-10 conference, the Trojans are in prime position to run the table. They could be playing for a national title before it is all said and done.

6. Florida

Perhaps the most impressive team yesterday was the Florida Gators. Their offense made a very good LSU defense look stupid. I think Florida’s offense separates them from the rest of the SEC. If Florida plays like they did yesterday, they are going to be tough to beat.

7. Georgia

The Bulldogs were not very impressive against Tennessee yesterday. They will need to play better the rest of the way if they are going to win the SEC East.

8. Oklahoma State

Probably the biggest jumpers seeing as I had not ranked them in any polls I have done this season. Oklahoma State is unbeaten, and that road win against Missouri is about as good a win as a team can get.

The most impressive thing about that game was the way their defense forced the brilliant Tiger offense into so many bad plays (and held Missouri to their first three and out of the season). They are going to have to do more to stay up here, but at 6-0 with a win on the road against Missouri, they have earned a top 10 spot.

9. Texas Tech

Here is where I am starting to have some trouble grouping teams. Texas Tech was not that impressive against Nebraska yesterday, but for the most part I like this Red Raider team. They play better defense than they have in the past (not saying too much), and that offense is going to light people up week after week.

They play Texas A&M before getting games against Kansas and Texas. After that three-game stretch we will know much more.

10. Ohio State

I flat-out have not been impressed with Ohio State in any game this season, yet I still have them at number 10 because they always find a way to win games. Their defense had a great performance yesterday, but the Buckeye offense is far from potent.

Still, with the game against Penn State at home, I think Ohio State is going to have another shot at a Big Ten title.

11. Missouri

In the end they may be better than both Ohio State and Texas Tech, but I do not trust their defense. Until this week their offense had just been abusing teams. My biggest issue with Missouri is if an opposing defense can slow down their offense at all, the Tigers are very vulnerable.

12. LSU

I am not very confident in either of their quarterbacks. The defense got abused by the Florida Gators yesterday, but I think that probably has more to do with that Gator offense finally clicking than the LSU defense.

Bottom line, LSU is good enough to beat some people, and maybe good enough to win the West, but they have too many weaknesses to be considered an elite team.

13. BYU

The Cougars are a team I struggle to rank. They have looked impressive enough week in and week out for me to put them around 13, but I do not think I can rank them much higher unless they really look great against the likes of TCU and Utah.

I would love to see what they can do against top-notch competition (and good for them, they will go to a BCS bowl if they keep taking care of business).

14. South Florida

Their banged-up defense struggled to stop the Pittsburgh running game. They still have great balance on offense and can really get after the quarterback on defense. I think their win over Kansas is a very good win, and I think they have been impressive throughout the season.

15. Michigan State

They are just a solid football team. They run the ball and play very good defense. Fifteen might end up being a little high for them, but with solid wins over Notre Dame and Northwestern, this seems reasonable.

16. North Carolina

The Tar Heels got another big win, this time against Notre Dame. Their defense continues to make plays. Butch Davis has to be a favorite for coach of the year.

17. Virginia Tech

They have been an entirely different team with Taylor at the quarterback position. They have not been overly impressive but keep finding ways to win games. Another BCS bid and an ACC championship are very much in reach.

18. Kansas

Kansas has won the games they needed to win. They were impressive in the second half against Colorado. They have a hungry Oklahoma team this week followed by a date with Texas Tech...these are the regular season tests Kansas seemingly avoided last season and will tell us a lot.

19. Cincinnati

In six games, four different quarterbacks have seen the field. The Bearcats have continued to take care of business. This is the most talented team I can remember at UC, and they have continued to battle through adversity. The Bearcats get to the bye and now have an extra week to get healthy before heading to UConn.

Tony Pike should be back to lead the Cats into battle. The Bearcats still have the best receivers in the conference, they have a solid offensive line, and the running game has started to get going. The Bearcat defense has started to really put pressure on opposing teams, and UC certainly has no shortage of playmakers in the secondary.

All that combined with special teams units that are second to none, and this Bearcat team is more likely to move up than go down.

20. Boise State

Their BCS fate likely hinges on Utah and BYU both losing, but the Broncos are once again having a special season.

21. Utah

We are getting closer and closer to an undefeated battle between Utah and BYU with a conference title and BCS bid on the line. Either will be a well deserved representative from the Mountain West Conference, which has certainly looked like a BCS caliber league this season.

22. Wake Forest

I may be judging Wake Forest too harshly for their loss to Navy. Their other wins are certainly noteworthy. They have already beaten the preseason conference favorite and seem to have the upper hand in the ACC Atlantic.

23. Pittsburgh

I do not trust Pittsburgh, but if they play to their talent level they are definitely a top 25 team. They still have yet to demonstrate the consistency I think will be necessary for winning the Big East.

24. California

They have a really bad loss to Maryland and a really good win over Michigan State. I think they are the clear number two in the Pac-10 at this point, but at this point I am not sure how impressive being number two in the Pac-10 is.

25. Ball State

I will give the class of the MAC some love. They have looked impressive, and I do not particularly like my other options for this spot.

Best of the Rest (in no order): Tulsa, Florida State, Boston College, Notre Dame, Oregon, Vanderbilt

Why Is the Big East Still Lacking Respect?

Mark Raines — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:08:00 -0400

In the college football world, perception means far more than reality. As of this week, the Big East Conference is down to one ranked team in the Coaches' poll and two ranked teams in the AP poll. The perception is that the Big East is down and that there are not any really good teams in the conference.

As a fan of the Big East, there have been some disappointments this season.

West Virginia has been the bellwether program for the conference, but they have started off slow under the new regime. Rutgers has fallen about as far as a program could fall in two seasons, going from Big East contender in 2006 to a team that has yet to beat a single I-A opponent in 2008.

With the sudden drop of these two programs and Louisville’s fall last season, the general view is that the Big East ranks last when compared to the other BCS conferences.

When one takes the time to examine the accomplishments and failings of the Big East, ACC, and Pac-10, that perception does not hold up. There really has not been a major difference in the performances of these conferences—merely the perception.

In a sport dominated by polls, perception is far too often viewed as reality.

We can gain a better understanding of the perception vs. reality argument when we compare the two major BCS programs in Ohio.

This season Ohio State has beaten I-AA Youngstown State, while Cincinnati beat I-AA Eastern Kentucky. The Buckeyes trailed the MAC’s Ohio University in the fourth quarter before rallying to win, while the Bearcats trailed Akron in the fourth quarter before doing the same.

Cincinnati thumped the Miami RedHawks at home and Ohio State got by Minnesota. Ohio State played then No. 1-ranked USC on the road, and the game was over by mid-second quarter. The Bearcats played the currently No. 1-ranked Oklahoma Sooners in Norman and let the game get away from them over a five-minute stretch in the third quarter.

Up until this past weekend, these two teams had nearly identical resumes. They had not beaten anyone of any real significance and had been beaten solidly by top 10 teams (in UC’s case the team currently sitting No. 1 in the country).

If OSU had done exactly what Cincinnati did against Cincinnati’s schedule, they would more than likely have been ranked about where they are right now. However, because OSU has history and went to the national title game the last two years, they get more credit than a UC team that finished at No. 17 last season.

In Ohio State’s case, I think their ranking is fairly well earned. However, the larger point is that until last weekend’s trip to Camp Randall, they had not done anything particularly impressive this season. Their ranking was simply a product of perception.

I think it has been pretty obvious that the best conferences this season are the SEC and Big 12, in that order. After those two, the Big Ten has looked like a solid number three. However, among the Big East, ACC, Pac-10, and even the Mountain West, it has been far harder to see a distinct difference.

The Big East has two absolutely horrendous teams in Syracuse and Rutgers (well, Rutgers has been so far at least). That being said, the Pac-10 comes to the table with Washington, Washington State, and UCLA, another pretty awful combination of teams, while the ACC boasts Virginia, Duke, and North Carolina State.

The bottom of all three conferences...well, no world-beaters among that group.

These conferences are pretty similar among their top 70-75 percent (that’s top seven for the Pac-10, top nine for the ACC, and top six for the Big East).

The top six teams in the Big East have gone 23-8, winning 74 percent of their games. The top nine in the ACC have gone 34-12, winning an identical 74 percent of their games. Meanwhile, the top seven (70 percent) of the Pac-10 have gone 22-14, winning only 61 percent of their games.

When we look at these league records as an aggregate, it is clear they have been pretty similar.

According to the AP top 25, the ACC has three teams ranked (Virginia Tech, UNC, and Wake Forest), the Big East has two teams ranked (South Florida and Pittsburgh), and the Pac-10 has one team ranked (USC). Of these teams, South Florida, UNC, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh all have pretty compelling cases for their rankings.

Pittsburgh has a bad loss, but they have beaten Iowa and have a road win over USF. The Bulls have taken down Kansas, Central Florida, and pounded NC State.

North Carolina probably should have beaten Virginia Tech but has big victories over Rutgers and UConn to go with a win over the Miami Hurricanes. Virginia Tech has beaten Georgia Tech, UNC, and Nebraska, with their one loss coming to East Carolina.

I have a harder time justifying Wake Forest’s ranking because of their loss to Navy, but they too have some meat on their schedule so far.

Each one of these conferences has some good non-conference wins over BCS opponents. The best wins for the Big East Conference to date are over Kansas, Iowa, NC State, Virginia, Kansas State, and Baylor.

The best wins for the ACC are over Mississippi, UConn, Cal, Colorado, and Rutgers. The best wins for the Pac-10 are Ohio State and Virginia (both by USC), Tennessee (by an awful UCLA team), Purdue, and Michigan State.

Ignoring the bottom teams I already mentioned in these conferences, let's examine who the non-conference losses are to in each league. The Big East has lost to UNC, Oklahoma, Kentucky, East Carolina, and Colorado. The one really bad loss for the top teams in the league was Pitt losing to Bowling Green.

The ACC has losses to Alabama, South Florida, Florida, and USC, to go with bad losses to Navy and Middle Tennessee State. The Pac-10 has losses to BYU, Fresno State, UNLV, New Mexico, Maryland, TCU, Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia, and Utah.

In reality the Pac-10 has more questionable losses than the ACC or Big East. Really the only team who has carried the torch for the Pac-10 is USC.

Despite three straight BCS bowl wins over the SEC champ, the ACC champ, and the Big 12 champ; despite an 8-2 record the last two seasons in bowl games; despite regular season victories this season and last over Auburn, Oregon State, Kansas, Virginia, Kansas State, and Maryland, among others; the Big East is still not perceived like the other leagues.

The slip-ups by Big East teams get viewed in a more negative light than those of ACC and Pac-10 teams. The recent accomplishments of Big East teams are quickly dismissed or forgotten.

In reality no team in the Big East has yet to really show they are a top notch team, though there are some teams that have the potential to be there by season's end (South Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and I would never rule out WVU).

Though there is not that clear top team, the league is still solid and has been every bit the conference the Pac-10 and ACC have been this season.

People keep asking the question of whether or not the Big East can win a BCS bowl (the same question was asked the last three years and answered the same way each time...yes). The Big East has plenty of good teams, whether it is recognized nationally or not.

I would bet the farm that if you put BYU, Boise State, or Utah in this conference, they would lose two or three games. There is plenty of talent on the field every week.

In the battle to gain consistent respect and positive perception among the college football elite, the Big East is not there yet—despite the fact that the product on the field has been, is, and will continue to be fine. The Big East will have another solid year, another solid Bowl Season, and may even win another BCS Bowl.

So much of college football is perception-based and not reality-based—and to me the perception that the Big East is down this season continues to be overblown.

The Big East has done plenty to establish itself as a solid BCS conference, and by season's end there will be plenty of accomplished teams carrying the torch for the Big East Conference.

Boise State Rides Back into Latest Top 25

Mark Raines — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 20:57:00 -0400

Bearcatmark’s Week Four Top 25

1. Oklahoma

Their last non-conference loss at home was to...TCU. You can bet the Sooners will be ready for this game. The loss of DeMarcus Granger should not do much to derail the Oklahoma Sooners.

2. USC

As I look at USC’s schedule I am trying to decide who can challenge them at all this year...it’s a tough question. The Pac-10 is down, and Notre Dame is not that good. USC should be able to run the table. I think they certainly have the clearest path to the National Title.

3. Georgia

Good win at Arizona State. Last season the Pac-10 tried to make its case for being as good as the SEC. This season it’s not even close.

4. Florida

Once again the Gators proved to have Tennessee’s number. Florida started quickly and never gave Tennessee a chance to even be in the game. That is the sign of a very good team.

5. Missouri

Can anyone stop this offense?

6. Texas Tech

Or this one?

7. LSU

It is hard not to love Les Miles. The defending national champions got an enormous win on the road against a very game Auburn team. The Tigers get Alabama and Georgia at home this year, though they still must travel to “The Swamp” in three weeks. As far as the SEC goes, they passed the first major test in typical late-game, Les Miles fashion.

8. Wisconsin

The Badgers had a bye this week and now play @ Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, @ Iowa, and Illinois the next five weeks. I cannot imagine them getting through that stretch of games unscathed, but you may notice they get Ohio State, Penn State, and Illinois in Camp Randall. That is a huge advantage for the Badgers in the Big Ten race.

I think the Badgers are very good and a top 10 team. I do not think they are a BCS championship caliber team, but that schedule certainly sets up nicely.

9. Alabama

The Tide continue to roll on. They looked incredibly impressive this week and already made a good Clemson team look stupid. Georgia is going to have their hands full come Saturday.

10. Texas

The top 10 continues to be dominated by the Big 12 and SEC (four teams from each conference). It is really interesting reading all the articles on how the Big East, ACC, and Pac-10 are down this year. In truth all three conferences have not done near as well as they would like, but I think the bigger story is just how good the top half of the Big 12 and the SEC are this year. Both of those conferences are going to be fun to watch.

11. Auburn

I cannot fault them much for losing a competitive game against a big time LSU team. Even in defeat Auburn showed they are a borderline top 10 team this season.

12. Penn State

The Nittany Lions continue to look dominant. Much like Wisconsin, their next five games will tell the story of their season—but unlike Wisconsin, they have to hit the road against some really good teams. Over the next five games Penn State plays Illinois, @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin, Michigan, and @ Ohio State. I cannot see them making it through that stretch unbeaten.

13. South Florida

Though they are the highest ranked Big East team, the Bulls were sloppy this week against a bad Florida International team. They will need a better effort to beat NC State next week.

14. “One of the” Ohio State Universities (the one in Columbus for those of you keeping score at home)

If the Buckeyes could get steady quarterback play, I would feel a lot better about them. The top of the Big Ten looks fairly solid this season. I think the Buckeyes will lose one or two more before it is all said and done.

15. BYU

Maybe they should be higher—I don’t know. Talk about a team that is living up to the hype. The Cougars are not just beating teams—they are putting Nebraska of the 1990s beatings on teams. Since limping by Washington, they have won 59-0 against UCLA and 44-0 over Wyoming.

For BYU to get a BCS bid they will have to earn it, because in truth the Mountain West has been every bit as good as the Pac-10, Big East, and ACC this season (in fact the Mountain West stands 5-0 against the Pac-10). Utah, TCU, UNLV, and Air Force are all tough squads. BYU is going to have plenty of chances to keep on climbing.

16. Kansas

Recovered from their loss to South Florida nicely against Sam Houston State, but then again, they recovered against Sam Houston State. I am really anxious to see Kansas in the Colorado-Oklahoma-Texas Tech stretch that looms in a couple of weeks. The Jayhawks made a living by beating teams they were clearly better than last season...they were very consistent. We will get a better idea of what their level actually is this season.

17. Illinois

Second major test of the year is this Saturday night in Happy Valley. The defense had no hope of stopping Missouri, but that probably has more to do with how good Missouri is than anything else.

18. Wake Forest

Lee Corso picked Florida State to win an ACC game for the five millionth straight time this weekend. That method has certainly failed him the last few years, but I am sure he got a lot of mileage off of it throughout the '90s. Wake Forest did not let the Seminoles do anything on Saturday. I think that along with Clemson they are the favorites to win the ACC. Wake Forest has to be one of the most well-coached teams in America.

19. Boise State

The Broncos make their triumphant return to the top 25 this week after a big win at Oregon. Boise State controlled the game from start to finish, though they allowed a late Oregon rally to make the game closer. Ian Johnson is still a Bronco (I swear he has been at Boise State longer than Kevin Frey was at Xavier), and this year's Broncos may actually be a better passing team than two years ago when they beat Oklahoma.

20. Clemson

They were the preseason ACC favorite for a reason...the talent is there. Now the consistency—that is another question entirely.

21. Cincinnati

20-24! Tony Pike was sensational in his debut for the Bearcats in the least flashy of ways. Tony was just plain efficient: When a receiver was open, he generally hit him and hit him in stride. When on the field, the Bearcat offense was a machine against Miami. If they can get that kind of production from Tony Pike week in and week out, there is no reason the Bearcats cannot win the Big East.

22. East Carolina

Tough loss to North Carolina State, but that’s a rivalry game on the road. They stay in the top 25 on the strength of victories over WVU and VT.

23. Fresno State

The second WAC team in the top 25, their win over Rutgers is not looking like that much these days, but they also gave Wisconsin all they could handle.

24. Utah

They have three pretty good wins against UNLV, Michigan, and Air Force. That is enough to keep them in the top 25 for the time being.

25. Vanderbilt

A win over South Carolina and a road win against Ole Miss are good enough to get Vanderbilt in my top 25 for now. I was going to wait a week until they had played Auburn, but when comparing them to the long list of toss-up teams I have for the 25th spot, I just think their wins stand out more.

The Extras (almost there but not quite…in no order)

Virginia Tech

In my first draft I had them in the top 25, but as I compared them to others I just did not think they quite held up. The win on the road against the Tar Heels was very good, but I want to see a little more from this very young team before I move them forward. It is hard to know much about Virginia Tech because they lack experience.

UConn

I think they are too one-dimensional to be a real threat in the Big East. They smacked around Virginia one week and then let Baylor give them all they could handle the next. The defense is generally good, the running game is good, and they seem to always win the close ones, but I want to see them against better competition.

Ball State

They look like the class of the MAC. That offense is really good.

Michigan State

Nice win for Mark Dantonio against the Fighting Irish this weekend.

Kentucky

3-0 with a defense that looks much better. They’ll have plenty of chances to move up.

Louisville

The Louisville team we saw against Kansas State was a completely different team from the team we saw against Kentucky. It was like night and day. Everyone knows Louisville has the talent. Their game against UConn this week could be a big one in the Big East.

The Big East Is Wide Open, Can the Bearcats Win It?

Mark Raines — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 21:56:00 -0400

It is hard not to be a little pessimistic after the shellacking the Bearcats received at the hands of the Oklahoma Sooners. After all the Bearcats lost the game 52-26 and it took a late touchdown to make it that close.

The defense was caught off-guard by the speed and intensity of the Oklahoma Sooners scoring machine. They looked completely overmatched almost the entire game. The offense had its moments, but in the end still made costly mistakes when they could have gotten points.

And to top it all off, Dustin Grutza was knocked out with a broken ankle. I doubt Dustin will ever take another snap as the University of Cincinnati Football Quarterback.

So what did we learn at Oklahoma? Interestingly enough there were parts of that game that encouraged me. In fact, if the Bearcats made a few less errors, or a few more plays it is an entirely different ball game. A few plays in particular stick out in my mind:

1. The interception Grutza threw on first and goal. It was inexcusable. UC was going to get points, they were likely going to get a touchdown…do not force the ball into coverage on first down. Throw the ball away.

2. The personal foul on Dominick Goodman late in the half. UC completed a 42- yard pass putting them in field goal range (it was also a touchdown with a better pass but lets not get too picky). Goodman fumbled and the ball was recovered by the Sooners.

He committed a personal foul for hitting the Sooners player late. The fumble was reversed, but the personal foul took UC out of field goal range. From where the Bearcats would have been without the personal foul, they could have really put the pressure on Oklahoma and possibly tied it up before half time. Just an all around bad play when UC was trying to close the gap before the half.

3. The 43-yard pass to Ryan Broyles on 3rd and 9 after the Marty Gilyard runback. This was a devastating play and the point at which the game turned. The worst part of this play was the Bearcats hit Bradford for one of the few times that game and had double coverage on Broyles.

I was sure watching it live that UC would get the interception or at the very least knock it down and make OU punt to them with all the momentum in a one possession game. Instead Broyles makes a spectacular play (and the UC defenders make a poor play) and Oklahoma scores a TD a few plays later. That TD basically set up the next play which put the game out of reach.

4. The fake punt. I do not blame Coach Kelly in the least for this. The defense could not go right back on the field. They just were too gassed and were getting gashed all game long.

And if I asked the immortal Herm Edwards, “Why do you play?” He would calmly respond, “You play to win the game.” Honestly, it was open, it’s just for everything that Kevin Huber is to the Bearcats he is not one of the 35 quarterbacks on the roster. The pass was short, it was deflected and the game was effectively over.

You change those four plays above and we are looking at a completely different game…and you know what, this Oklahoma team might be the best team in the country.

So where does that leave the Bearcats? What do they need to do to become Big East Champions? The conference is wide open. West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Rutgers all appear very vulnerable. South Florida has looked great for stretches and very beatable during stretches. UC gets Pitt, South Florida and Rutgers at the Nip.

These are games they could win, maybe even should win. Over the next three weeks, before Big East play begins, there are a few questions I think we need to answer. If they are answered positively I think UC can be one of the favorites to win the Big East.

Can Tony Pike be an effective quarterback in Brian Kelly’s offense? Will Kelly try anyone else?

Of all the questions, I think this is the biggest. The Bearcats have a ton of weapons. I was very impressed with the offensive line against the Sooners. I thought for the most part they opened up holes and gave Grutza some time to throw the ball. The times they got beat seemed to be when we let the play clock run down to the end and they could time the blitz.

We already knew Goodman and Barnett were big time receivers, but Marty Gilyard has been unreal this season. He is explosive and can make plays in space. He is as good as any Bearcat I have seen since Ladarius Vann at turning a three yard pass into a 30-yard pass. I have been somewhat encouraged by the running game.

All in all I think that this offense needs a quarterback. Pike has all the physical tools. He is tall, has a big arm, and has reasonably good mobility; however, we have yet to seem him in game action with the first team. If Pike can deliver good passes on time and make good decisions the offense should continue to be explosive and put pressure on opposing teams.

If not Kelly will have to find an answer from somebody else and it is sounding like Demetrius Jones is next in line.

2. Are UC’s defensive ends good enough to consistently get pressure on the quarterback?

Against Oklahoma they got almost no pressure. A friend of mine kept pointing out to me that not only were they not getting pressure, but that they were not getting close. His contention was that even against a great offensive line they should be able to get some push, or not get driven back.

This is a big area of concern for the Bearcats. Last season the Hoke/Craig/Nelms combination wreaked havoc on opposing quarterbacks. This defensive line is untested and against the stiffest of competitions failed miserably.

Of course, OU was the stiffest of competition. That line was monstrous. I still believe Barwin could be a heck of an end. He was just too inexperienced going against too good of a defensive line.

The good news is our defensive ends will get to go against one on one blocking because teams will have to double team Byrd. Byrd was a monster against Oklahoma. I felt like as a defensive tackle he was in on an unreal number of plays while facing constant double teams.

Byrd had nine tackles, four of them solo, but he just seemed to be the only guy who was constantly disrupting what Oklahoma wanted to do. UC’s defensive ends are going to have to disrupt opposing offenses if the Bearcats are going to win the Big East.

3. Can we stop the pass over the middle?

I thought for the most part UC was ok on the edge against Oklahoma. Mickens got beat on a nice double move from Iglesias and UC allowed that awful jump ball completion to Broyles, but in general I thought the corners were ok.

The issue was UC got beat big down the middle. I though Manalac was out of position on pass plays all game long. Part of the problem was Oklahoma’s offense put a ton of pressure on UC and they were hardly ever set. They would be confused and out of position on multiple occasions as the ball was being snapped.

Still, I thought Manalac in particular did not get depth against the passing game and the safeties did not show much in terms of being in position to make plays. The hope has to be that Smith’s instincts will translate well to the free safety position, because the Bearcats need to get better down the middle.

4. Will someone please make a PAT, much less a field goal?

I do not think I need to delve into this one too much, but UC’s kicking game must improve. The rest of UC’s special teams should be very good. They get great punting from Huber, Rodgers has been driving the ball deep, the coverage has been alright, and Gilyard has looked spectacular in the return game. These all play to the Bearcat’s advantage. They just need someone to make a PAT.

Outlook:

Bearcat fans need to remember that we played Oklahoma in Norman two weeks ago, not Oregon State at the Nip. Oregon State finished third in the Pac Ten and was a borderline top 25 team last season.

This Oklahoma team may be the best in the country… they may even be the best team in the last few years. They have the best offensive line in college football, playmakers all over the field, and a Heisman contender at QB. They are going to destroy a bunch of teams during the course of the year.

At the same time they showed some of UC’s areas for concern and created another (with the injury to Grutza). The Bearcats have three games they should win before Big East play begins. I want to see these four areas move from areas of concerns to strengths. If that happens, the Bearcats will be in position to win the Big East and have a top ten type of season.

Remember there are a ton of players back from a Bearcat team that finished number 17 in the country and won 10 games. The Big East looks ripe for the taking. With steady quarterback play, a pass rush, consistent pass defense over the middle and an average kicking game the Bearcats can win the Big East. The next three weeks will give us an idea of where we are heading the rest of the way.

Scared Ohio State Buckeyes Pay Cincinnati Bearcats to Avoid Getting Hammered

Mark Raines — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 19:25:00 -0400

Here is how it happened:

After Maurice Clarrett shared with the world the crazy cheating that goes on in Columbus, the NCAA searched for evidence. Ohio State had become so good at covering up their tracks from years of boosters hiding their corruption in clever ways the NCAA was unable to find anything of substance.

Under normal circumstances, a player’s word about improper benefits would probably be enough, however Maurice Clarrett’s “unique” off-the-field incidents made him just a tad less trustworthy than O.J. Simpson.

With that in mind, the NCAA starting tapping the phones of all people involved with “one of the: Ohio State University Football teams (in this case the Columbus branch). They wanted to hear what they said, hoping to get leads, hoping they would slip up.

Courtesy of the fine people at the NCAA I have managed to piece together the conversations that led to “one of” the Ohio State Universities (the one in Columbus) paying the University of Cincinnati $1 million to move their 2012 meeting from Cincinnati to Columbus.

Their hope was to avoid the ass-beating that was bound to ensue. I doubt it will work, but here is how everything transpired.

A Worried Nancy Zimpher Calls Some Old Friends in Columbus:

Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee: NZ, to what do I owe this great pleasure?

Nancy: Gordo, it’s been too long. Honestly, I hate to call under this kind of circumstance, but I have been doing some thinking. You remember my original plan to sabotage UC sports?

Gordon: Yes, it’s been working wonders for the basketball program, but you’ve got some trouble brewing in football. Who would have thought that pushing Michigan State to hire Dantonio would have been the end?

I know you don’t know much about football, but how could you let them get Brian Kelly? Have you been pushing for him to take other jobs?

Nancy: So far I’ve pushed, but nothing's come. Nebraska wanted to talk to him among other schools. Brian seems intent on making this team a winner. That is why I am calling.

If Brian Kelly is the coach of the University of Cincinnati in 2012, I can conceive of no way the Buckeyes can get out of Cincinnati with a victory. You need to consider calling off the game.

Gordon: Is it that serious, NZ?

Nancy: I would not be telling you if it was not. The UC fans really want this game. They will probably outnumber you by a good amount at Paul Brown Stadium. By that time, they will have SEC-type speed…I think we both know how Ohio State tends to fare against the SEC.

Gordon: Sure we have had a “small” string of bad luck against that conference, but you cannot believe it will come to this. Nancy, other jobs will come up. You have to get Kelly out the door…start taking funds from the athletic department, delay the construction of a practice bubble, just get him out of the way by 2012.

Nancy: Kelly seems to be Bob Huggins 2.0. Everyone who is involved with the university in any way loves him. He owns this town. At the same time there has not been an inaccurate Sports Illustrated story to start lowering his credibility.

I do not think I can beat the guy. Short of him getting arrested, he is going to be at UC for a long time.

Gordon: You talked to the NCAA right? There is not a chance he is getting another season. This Bearcat team is a national title contender with Mauk at the QB.

Nancy: We do not have to worry about that. I have been assured that it will be a long, drawn-out process, but in the end Ben will not be granted another season. The NCAA figures if they wait a long time, he will not be able to sue, because there is no way he would play this season anyways.

Gordon: The NCAA knows how to handle all of its shit, doesn’t it?

Nancy: They are good, there is no doubt; maybe they’d give me some advice on how to get Coach Kelly out of here.

Gordon: That is a little risky, NZ. We cannot afford to have our plans revealed to the world. It would really put a black eye on both you and the Ohio State University.

Nancy: I understand, Gordo. Just cancel the game.

A confused Brian Kelly receives a call from Ohio State athletics:

Brian Kelly: Gene, I hear you needed to talk to me over a scheduling issue in 2012. What is that all about?

Gene Smith (OSU Athletic Director): Ohio State can no longer afford to play UC. Honestly, it’s simply a financial thing. We will make more money in a home game.

Brian: Gene, I hear the financial part and I know Ohio State is “constantly” strapped for cash in football, but you had a deal to come play us. UC has played more than our fair share in Columbus. The school understood it benefited them to do so, but part of the deal was for you to come back here again.

You have traveled to the little MAC schools in-state with no problem. Gene, we are going to have to hold you to the contract you signed. I expect a school of “integrity” like Ohio State would stay committed to its word.

Gene: Brian, I am truly sorry, but there is no way we can do it. We just make way more money for games in Columbus, even after whatever buyout we give you and whatever we pay the 1-AA School we choose for another guarantee game.

Brian: Gene, if it is finances you are worried about we can split the profit with you. Whatever profits are made down at PBS we’ll give you half. That also avoids you having to pay off another 1-AA team for a guarantee game in Columbus. You are sure to come out on top that way.

Gene: Our fans will not be happy. We just need more home games. Our fans will not be able to get tickets like last time. UC fans are going to get all the tickets.

Brian: Gene, I thought this was purely about finances. OK, what if we called it a neutral site game. We split the profits and the ticket distribution 50/50, right down the middle. If we do that the Buckeyes will certainly have at least as many fans as they had last time you came to Cincinnati…probably more.

Gene: I am sorry, Brian. There is just no way we can play this game.

Brian: Gene, let's play in Cleveland, or, Detroit, or in a parking lot somewhere. This is a game people want to see. It’s a game that can get national exposure. It would be a game between two BCS schools in the same conference.

Let’s look at the states around us: Louisville and Kentucky play, Michigan and Michigan State play, Purdue and Notre Dame play, Tennessee and Vanderbilt play, Illinois and Northwestern play. All of these BCS schools in the same state play each other. It provides great TV games.

I know your fans may not be excited for the game now, but if we started playing every year, they would look forward to the game. UK did not always want to play Louisville in basketball, but now it is a marquee, must-see game every year.

Our football program is going to be great some day, Gene. Let’s get this game going now, let’s start building the anticipation. Gameday is going to want to be at this game before it is all said and done.

Gene: Brian, we are the Ohio State University. We are not Michigan or Notre Dame. They can play other BCS teams in the state. We are better than the rest of the state and we get to dictate our games.

Brian: Gene, maybe a team like Notre Dame understands the value in promoting a regional non-conference rivalry. It can be a selling point down the road; it creates excitement for the games.

Gene: We are the Ohio State University.

Brian: I heard you the first time. You are one of the Ohio State Universities.

Gene: We are the Ohio State University.

Brian: Gene, I am going to give you a chance to save face. You do not want to look like you are ducking us and I want to build anticipation for this game. I want there to be pressure to play this game.

What if we were to come to OSU to play in 2012? It would be a home game for you, plus you could tell everyone it was purely financial and I’ll stay quiet about all the offers I made you hear today so you could fulfill your contract. I know I could get people all over asking you why OSU ducked UC if they knew the full truth.

However, I think when we go up there and play a great game people are going to want to see more. There will be pressure to continue the rivalry. So I am giving you this chance to save face.

Play us in Columbus. I will keep quiet. But mark my words…this game will be played annually some day, when OSU is wishing they were the program UC has become.

Gene: Not much of a choice there. I am not sure how I will explain this to the President, but we’ll see.

The UC vs. OSU football game scheduled for 2012 was officially moved back to Columbus. Coach Kelly kept his word and kept the entire conversation to himself. But who knows…maybe one day Coach Kelly will be right.

Maybe one day people will ask the question: Why do OSU and UC, two teams who consistently win BCS conference championships, not play each other every year?

And eventually maybe Kelly will get his wish and OSU will see the value in coming to Cincinnati to get their butts whooped every two years.

SEC, Big 12 Well-Represented in College Football Preseason Top 25

Mark Raines — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:29:00 -0400

I have agreed to submit a top 25 ballot every week for NCAAbbs. With a desire for openness in mind, I am going to post my top 25 every week so I can get some feedback and scrutiny. If you believe there was a gross omission, let me know (it is possible to forget someone unwillingly). If you disagree, make an argument. I’d like to hear thoughts one way or the other.

For my preseason poll, I really looked at last year's results and who each team has returning. I did not consider what they may do this season based on their schedule, nor what I think the poll will look like at the end of the season.

My main criterion was this: If these two teams met head to head on a neutral field, who would I pick to win? The team I would pick was ranked higher.

This will not be how I always conduct the poll. It will have more influence early in the season, but as I see more and more games and teams begin to prove themselves, I will factor results in. To me, what “I think” teams can do late in the season is less important than what teams did.

Since I am a Bearcat fan, let me use this example. If UC goes to Oklahoma and beats the Sooners, and then later in the season beats WVU, they will be rewarded for that. I may think both Oklahoma and WVU had off games and would bet on those teams on a neutral field, but I would use the actual results more so than my feeling on who would win. Beating good teams will weigh heavily in my poll.

With that in mind, here is my preseason top 25.

1. “One of the” Ohio State Universities...in the case the Columbus branch

I know everyone hates on Ohio State, and I hope I am very very wrong about them, but they are good. Really good. The defense is going to be stacked.

I know the last two National Title games made them look bad, and they have had some trouble against spread offenses, but this team is more experienced than anyone else in the country. They really do know how to win. James Laurinaitis is the best defensive player in the country.

On a neutral site I would not bet against them this season. I think they are the most proven team out of the entire top 25. (I also think the LSU game was closer than the score indicated, for what that is worth.)

2. USC

Makes for a great matchup early in the season, doesn’t it? They have so much talent. I just trust them more than the other teams.

3. Oklahoma

The WVU game from last year scares me a bit, but everyone looks dreadful against WVU's offense. They return 15 starters, including a QB that was a freshman last season and will surely be even better this year in Sam Bradford. Their offensive line is as good as there is in the country.

4. Georgia

Great season last year, and they return 17 starters this year. They seemingly have not been able to get over the hump in big games though. The thrashing they took from Tennessee last year scares me.

I do not know that they are much better than Florida, LSU, or Auburn. Honestly, I am just a little too skeptical of Georgia to put them any higher than four (still really high, and they will have plenty of chances to prove me wrong).

5. West Virginia

It’s always a question when a new coach takes over, but their offense is second to none, and I think they have enough back on defense to maintain their success.

6. Florida

I trust Urban Meyer. I love the offense, and I think the defense is ready to step up this year.

7. Missouri

A ton of experience back from a team that was oh so close to playing for the National Championship last year.

8. Auburn

They are always tough defensively. They return 17 starters. The QB position is a question mark, especially in a new system that will be more dependent on QB play. However, I think this is a sleeper National Title contender.

9. Texas Tech

19 starters back, a prolific offense, and they actually played defense last year.

10. LSU

Defending National Champs...they have enough talent to warrant top 10 consideration. There are, however, questions at the QB position. This makes four of the top 10 from the SEC and three for the Big 12. Those conferences are going to be very tough this season.

11. Virginia Tech

I like them more then Clemson. I think the offense will be better than last year, and the defense always seems to reload. There is a lot of talent in that secondary.

12. Arizona State

They were a tough one for me. They did not prove they could win away from home last season, which is worrisome. In the end, they return a bunch of talent, and Erickson always seems to get a ton out of his players.

13. Cincinnati

They finished 17th last year. I think this is the best team UC has ever had. QB questions are the only thing holding me back from predictions of a top 10 season. Their defense is as good as any, and they have the weapons on offense to compete. Kevin Huber and Jake Rodgers should continue to force teams to drive the ball a long way through great punting and deep kickoffs.

14. Clemson

A lot of people love Clemson. They have never convinced me.

15. Wisconsin

Someone has to be number two in the Big Ten.

16. South Florida

USF doesn’t have the questions at QB that UC has, but doesn’t have the weapons on offense or special teams either. Their defense is really good, but I also think UC’s secondary is superior. Ultimately that’s why they are a few spots below the Bearcats.

17. Kansas

They’ll have a better schedule to be judged against this season.

18. Tennessee

They looked great in beating Georgia and awful in getting thrashed by Florida. I tend to be optimistic about Tennessee, but it is hard to put them any higher at this point.

19. Illinois

They lose a bunch of starters but still have the talent to finish top three in the Big Ten.

20. Texas

They have a ton of talent but have an uphill battle in the loaded Big 12.

21. Oregon

As deep as the Pac-10 was last season, I do not think it’s as good this year.

22. Wake Forest

Look out Clemson: I really think Wake Forest can win the ACC Atlantic.

23. BYU

I am not being very friendly to the non-BCS teams. I considered a few and am sure Fresno State, Utah, TCU, and East Carolina will have ample opportunity to put themselves in the top 25. Right now, BYU is just the team I am most sure about.

24. Penn State

I think the Nittanys have a ton to prove and the talent to do it.

25. Rutgers

I like this Rutgers team more than most do. I think Pitt and Rutgers will do battle for fourth in the Big East. If I were ranking based on who would win at a neutral site, I would give Rutgers the edge.

Their biggest problem is they have to travel to WVU, Pitt, South Florida, and Cincinnati...ouch. They also have non-conference games against Fresno State and UNC. If Rutgers is going to be viewed as a top team this year, they are really going to have to earn it.

Other teams considered but missing (in no order): Utah, Fresno State, UCF, ECU, Pitt, Boston College, UCLA, South Carolina, and Michigan.

Ben Mauk Moves Out; Brett Favre Moves East

Mark Raines — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:20:00 -0400

(Bearcatmark tries to get you to the weekend)

Thank You, Ben Mauk

According to 1530 homer, Ben Mauk has officially been denied his sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA.

It's ridiculous that it took this long, but it was certainly a decision that should come as no surprise to anyone involved.

Ben Mauk gave UC one great year. He led our Bearcats to their first 10-win season since the 1960s.

He dealt with the frequent offensive line lapses (resulting from having to play in a completely different system) with great poise, continually evading pressure and making good decisions.

He provided the leadership from the quarterback position necessary to make UC a Big East contender and the No. 17 team in the country at season's end.

Thank you, Ben Mauk, for your time here at the University of Cincinnati. Now it’s time for Grutza to win us a Big East title.

Brett Favre Traded?

So I was scouring through all my favorite sports websites and noticed that Brett Favre has been traded. This may be news to everyone, because it has been largely ignored by the national media.

It was my understanding that Brett Favre had retired after a tremendous year, leading the Green Bay Packers to the brink of a Super Bowl berth. Apparently he decided recently that he wanted to come back.

Brett Favre has not missed a start since Lincoln was president, so maybe this development should not have been so shocking. It seems Brett Favre likes to play football.

One would think any reasonable team would jump at the chance to bring back their Hall of Fame quarterback, who nearly led his team to the Super Bowl the prior season, but the Packers have other plans.

The Packers seem to have everything in place to make another run this season, but have elected to put the ball in the hands of a young, unproven quarterback in the hopes of making a decision on whether he is the future of the franchise.

I do not really understand this… if you were that close to going to the Super Bowl last season…WHY RISK THIS SEASON? No one knows how large a window they have. This is the NFL after all. Not bringing Brett Favre back when he wants back is utter insanity.

The Jets traded a fourth-round pick for Brett Favre…kinda. The pick can actually go up to a first round pick if the Jets make the Super Bowl, Brett takes 80 percent of the snaps, George Bush finds Osama bin Laden, and Al Gore decides to shut down the three power plants he needs to provide electricity to his house.

I think the last two are possibilities, but for some reason I do not have as much confidence in the 4-12 Jets to turn it around and make a Super Bowl in the stacked AFC.

For now, lets watch Broadway Brett/Jet Favre/Jersey B(rett) try to lead the New York Brett’s to a .500 season. That seems a little more reasonable.

Adam Dunn Watch

Picture this, you get invited to the Playboy Mansion. You get to hang out in the grotto to party with Hef and all his honeys.

You come back, and your buddy asks you, “How was it?” and your response is “Well, there was free booze, I had access to pools, hot tubs, and the most beautiful women in the world were wearing practically nothing everywhere I went… BUT I didn’t have a chance with them, so it was not worth it.”

Yeah, that is crazy right…but it is basically the attitude of a large portion of Reds fans towards Adam Dunn.

“Yeah, Dunn hits 40 homeruns, scores 100 runs, and drives in 100 runs every year...plus he is in the top six in baseball in runs created over the last five years, BUT he strikes out too much and the Reds do not win with him.”

Ok it would be nice if Dunn struck out less, but at the end of the day he is still giving you top-of-the-line production when it comes to the most important part of being a hitter…PRODUCING RUNS.

As for the Reds not winning with him, well you may want to look at the lack of run production from the rest of the team, and maybe, just maybe the below average pitching. Just a thought.

So for this week's Dunn Watch lets reiterate what Dunn is doing so far this year:

32 HR, 74 RBI, .381 OBP, .540 SLG, 58 runs

Yeah, he’s good.

What to expect the rest of August

1. The University of Cincinnati Bearcat Football team will beat EKU to move to 1-0. (Duh)
2. The USA will win the medal count at the Olympics. (Duh 2)
3. The Cubs will end the month still in first place in the Central. (Duh 3)
4. Chad Johnson will continue to impress people at camp and will continue talking about having his best season ever. Fans will wear Chad Johnson jerseys and act like they never ragged on him a few months earlier.
5. Paul Daugherty will be replaced at the Cincinnati Enquirer by Joe Posnanski (please God, please).
6. New evidence will come out detailing Ohio State’s plot to destroy the University of Cincinnati forever and how it is backfiring to the point that they had to bail out on a football game in Cincinnati for fear of losing (more coming soon).
7. Adam Dunn will continue to be the most important hitter in the Reds lineup and continue to be underutilized by his manager (get him out of the No. 5 spot and into the No. 3 or 4).
8. I will unveil my preseason top 25 for college football, as well as my favorites to make it to the National Championship.
9. The NFL preseason will be as meaningless as it always is.
10. The United States will have at least two games decided by seven points or less in Olympic Basketball. Spain, Argentina and Greece are all capable of beating them. I think the United States will reclaim their gold medal, but they are going to have to fight to do so.