Bleacher Report - Articles by Evan Kulhawik

NFL Divisional Round Predictions: As Certain As North Carolina Going Undefeated

Evan Kulhawik — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:20:55 -0500

Picking games in the NFL postseason is as easy as eating soup with chopsticks. In the NFL, where teams are usually fairly evenly-matched, games can come down to one or two key plays. That is why it is so tough to predict what will happen.

However, I will try to do just that and tell you who will win this weekend.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ Tennessee Titans (13-3)

I think this is the game where the underdog has the best chance of winning. I don't see how the Titans will be able to score very much against the stout defensive unit of the Ravens.

Ed Reed has been a man possessed the past few weeks, and the linebacking corps led by Ray Lewis is as good as anyone stopping the run. The Titans offense relies heavily on the running game, and if the Ravens can bottle up Chris Johnson and "eat up" LenDale White (get it?), then the Titans will struggle mightily to score.

Kerry Collins cannot take apart the stellar Ravens' secondary without the aid of some running game.

On the other side of the coin, it should also be difficult for the Ravens to score. The Titans' defense is also spectacular, and they will certainly try to bottle up the run and force rookie Joe Flacco to beat them.

However, the injuries to Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch should affect their play.

Haynesworth has already stated he will need to wear a brace, so his mobility will not be 100 percent. The trio of Willis McGahee, Le'Ron McClain, and Ray Rice is very formidable, and usually one of them is due for a big day.

I expect this one to be very low-scoring, but I think the Ravens' offense is better than that of the Titans. Derrick Mason is a legitimate pass-catching threat, whereas the Titans do not really have anyone that can take over a game catching passes. I think the Ravens pull this one out, but barely.

Prediction: Ravens 17, Titans 13

Arizona Cardinals (9-7) @ Carolina Panthers (12-4)

If the Cardinals had to play in the Meadowlands, they would have no chance. The cold weather and winds there would make their high-octane passing game nearly obsolete.

However, this one is being played in North Carolina, where the weather should not be too bad. This one makes me a little nervous, as the Cardinals come into this one with no pressure. They have everything to play for and nothing to lose, and that is always a scary thing for the opponent.

However, the Panthers are clearly the better team. Their running game is extremely solid, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should be able to have big days. And as good as Larry Fitzgerald is for the Cardinals, Steve Smith is every bit as good for the Panthers.

John Fox is a good coach and will be prepared to stop the Cardinals' passing game. He will force the Cardinals to move the ball some on the ground, which they cannot do.

The Panthers, however, have a very well-balanced offense. They can move it by either running the ball (usually how they do it), or by passing (because Steve Smith is a monster).

I do like Kurt Warner better than Jake Delhomme, but it's not always about the quarterback. Delhomme's supporting cast is much better than that of Warner. I think the Cardinals will keep it close for a little while, but the Panthers will eventually pull away with their superior running attack.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Cardinals 20

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) @ New York Giants (12-4)

Why are the Eagles being picked to win this game so much? And why are the Giants (again) getting no respect? They won the Super Bowl last year and were predicted to not make the playoffs this year.

Wrong.

Now they are the No. 1 seed in the NFC, are playing at home in the divisional round, and they are still supposed to lose? What do the Giants have to do to get the credit they deserve?

There is no denying that the Eagles are the hottest team in the NFL now that the Colts have been knocked out. However, the win in Minnesota was far from convincing. This was a Vikings team that could barely beat the Giants' backups in Week 17, and the Eagles could barely do anything on offense.

If it wasn't for Tarvaris Jackson's pathetic pick-six, that game might have come down to the last play.

The Giants did lose to Philadelphia in Week 14, but Brandon Jacobs was injured in the game. Through 10 carries in that one, he had 52 yards, a very good number. Jacobs is back, and assuming he makes it through the whole game he is the key to the Giants' offense. I see Jacobs getting about 20-25 carries for 100-110 yards, and grinding away at the Eagles' defense.

This game will probably be close, and it will probably come down to the quarterbacks in the fourth quarter. Donovan McNabb did not play well last week, and his numbers were inflated because of the long screen pass where he did nothing. Otherwise, McNabb was erratic and although he made some good throws, he was not consistent.

Eli Manning proved last year he can play mistake-free football in the playoffs, and this is going to be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Giants 27, Eagles 17

San Diego Chargers (8-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

The Chargers proved last week what many people thought all year long: They have enough talent to beat anybody. The win over the Colts was a statement win, as they took out the NFL's hottest team, led by the league MVP.

Even though San Diego unfairly got a home game, they still showed their potential in winning that game. This week, though, they have to travel to Pittsburgh and go up against arguably the NFL's best defense in the Steelers.

The weather for Sunday in Pittsburgh is supposed to be a high of 25 degrees and a few snow showers. This is a huge advantage for the Steelers, and makes their home-field advantage even more useful.

This weather will be a far cry from beautiful San Diego, and it will make the air attacks of both teams harder to get going. However, this is exactly what Pittsburgh wants.

The Steelers pride themselves on running the ball, and conversely, stopping the run. They are very physical and usually win the battles in the trenches. The Chargers can usually run the ball well, but LaDainian Tomlinson probably will not play this weekend.

I think Darren Sproles is very good, but his style is not physical. Sproles is a finesse runner, and the team that wins on Sunday is going to be the team that is more physical.

The Steelers should win this game, as their defense should dominate like it usually does. The Steelers will also have the home crowd behind them, and the Chargers are tired after an overtime win last week. The Steelers are rested and ready to go to battle on Sunday.

I think the Steelers control this game from the start and win comfortably.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Chargers 13

NFL Wild-Card Playoff Predictions

Evan Kulhawik — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 19:15:12 -0500

The NFL playoffs are back. This has been one of the craziest and most wide-open seasons in recent memory, and predicting winners for the playoff matchups is almost a crap shoot.

In this crazy year, where 11-5 New England is staying home and 8-8 San Diego HOSTS 12-4 Indianapolis, anything is possible. For these first round matchups, it seems as though all the home teams are the underdogs. So, without further ado, here goes nothing...

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

This game has been bugging me for awhile. I definitely think the Falcons are the better team, but the Cardinals are home, where their run-and-shoot offense can flourish. Also, the Falcons are only 4-4 on the road this year.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have struggled mightily against teams outside of their division. My head is spinning just thinking about the trends that are going to be broken no matter who wins.

I have made up my mind, though, and I think the Cardinals will squeak the game out. Home-field advantage is huge in the playoffs (although the Giants would argue that), and the Cardinals can pass the ball well under the ideal weather conditions of University of Phoenix Stadium. I think it will be back-and-forth, but the Cardinals will pull it out in the end.

Prediction: Cardinals 28, Falcons 24

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) @ San Diego Chargers (8-8)

Because of the NFL's wacky (and stupid) playoff system, a .500 team will play a home game in the playoffs against the NFL's hottest team. On paper, the Chargers have a team that can match-up with anyone, but they have not shown it very much this year.

The Colts already beat the Chargers in San Diego this year, and I think history repeats itself. Peyton Manning has played extremely well in leading the Colts to a 12-4 record, despite the fact that Joseph Addai has done very little this season.

The Colts are the hottest team in the NFL, and in the playoffs, that is probably the most important thing. The game should be close since it is in San Diego, but the Colts are playing too well right now to bow out in the first round.

Prediction: Colts 24, Chargers 17

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)

This one is really confusing me. The Dolphins have played mistake-free football all year, and are the type of team that can surprise some people here in the playoffs. The wildcat offense can be extremely confusing for the opposition at times, and their running game is solid.

However, the Ravens have a tremendous defense, and their offense has been pretty good this year as well. Willis McGahee, Ray Rice, and Le'Ron McClain have all been up-and-down this year, but usually one of them is ready for a big day.

The home-field advantage means nothing here in terms of weather, so both teams can play straight-up. The one thing that scares me about the Dolphins though is that Chad Pennington has no arm strength.

The Ravens have trouble with long passes at times, but Pennington isn't the type of guy to challenge the defense vertically. The Ravens can bring eight to nine guys into the box and dare Pennington to throw long—which he can't. The Ravens' defense will dominate this game and the Ravens should be able to pull this one out.

Prediction: Ravens 17, Dolphins 10

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

The Eagles are the NFC's hottest team. They are looking eerily similar to the Giants of last year, as they have stormed into the playoffs as the six seed. Much like the Giants last year, the Eagles get a first-round matchup against a team they should beat.

However, the Eagles have laid plenty of eggs this year, and I am a little nervous about this one.

The Vikings are at home, in one of the loudest places in the league (The Metrodome). They also have Adrian Peterson, who can single-handedly take over a game and win it. The Vikings have played well at home this year, so that factor is in their favor.

However, as much as Donovan McNabb makes me nervous, Tarvaris Jackson is downright frightening.

Jackson can go from playing a great game, like he did a couple weeks ago, to playing solid football and not making mistakes, to playing atrocious football where he can lose a game by himself. Looking at this game though, I think the Eagles are being a little overrated because of their win last week. I think Tarvaris will play a decent game, and let AP take over.

I think the Vikings' home-field advantage will come through big-time.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Eagles 13

Open Forum: Which Sport Requires More Strategy: Baseball or Football?

Evan Kulhawik — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 11:50:37 -0400

I just heard a radio commercial that plays a lot now, and it was all about whether baseball or football required more strategy. It got me to thinking on the subject, and I still do not have a definitive answer.

There are so many factors in each sport that can sway the decision one way or another.

In baseball, there are a bevy of strategic moves. Pitching changes, pinch hitters, and defensive substitutions are all in-game adjustments to help bolster the squad on the field. But this is just the surface of the strategy involved in the sport.

Of course, stealing bases, bunting, and hitting-and-running are some of the moves that can change the course of a game. Successfully hit-and-run and an inning could be set up for scoring.

However, if the batter misses the pitch, the rally can be killed. Sacrifice bunting plays into this risk-reward factor as well: Give up the out and drive the run in later in the inning, and the manager looks like a genius.

Leave the runner stranded, and the manager will be second-guessed the next day on the local radio shows.

There are also special plays, like the squeeze bunt and what type of defense to play on a bunt. Does a team utilize the wheel play or a straight-up bunt defense?

Baseball, more than any other sport, causes second-guessing. Radio shows love baseball season: they can criticize managers for moves they made, if they indeed backfire.

Baseball strategy is all about the delicate balance between risky and overzealous; between conservative and stagnant.

In football, most of the strategy happens on the sidelines, where we can't see it. Baseball strategy can be seen clearly on the field, whereas in football, if a team scores on a long bomb, we have no idea if the offense knew what was coming, or they got lucky, until after the game is over.

In football, most of the strategy revolves around the type of offense and the type of defense. Does a defense usually run zone coverage? Do they double-team a certain player?

Do they play bump and run on first-and-10 a lot? Do they play a 4-3 formation on running plays usually and a 3-4 formation on passing down?

The offense can counteract this cat-and-mouse game as well. Maybe the defense likes to bump-and-run, so the offense sends a man in motion and on a fade pattern. Maybe the defense runs a zone on a certain down a lot, so the offense uses crossing routes and eats up the soft spots of the zone.

Maybe on second-and-seven, the defense is anticipating a pass, so the offense runs a draw play for big yardage.

The adjustments throughout a football game are endless. Teams adjust to their opponent's tendencies and try to take advantage of mismatches and certain schemes.

There are also other big decisions that can decide a game, like does a team take the 45 yard field goal attempt, or go for it on fourth-and-inches?

So my question is this: which sport, in your mind, takes more strategy? In other words, in which sport does strategy affect the outcome of games the most?

Fantasy Baseball: Trade Chipper? Fantasy Buy or Sell

Evan Kulhawik — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 06:17:26 -0400

Note: When I say buy, I mean that the player's value is at its lowest point and it is a good time to try and get them for little value.

Some players may be obvious names that people want on their team, but the point is to maximize trade value. A few buy/sells for fantasy baseball (I'll give you a batter, starter, and reliever for each)

Buy: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA, OF)

Vlad is not having a good year thus far. He homered Sunday, but came into the day batting just .251 with a mere 30 RBI. Vlad, a perennial source of Hulk-sized power numbers, has been a huge let down. He just came back after a few days off with an injury. Yet, now is the time to buy on the man with no conscience at the plate.

First of all, Vlad is Vlad. The past two years he has knocked in 116 runs (2006) and 125 runs (2007), and his average was at least .324 in both seasons. There are really no indicators for Vlad to fall off so fast. Even though he probably won't end up with his usual gaudy numbers, he is a good bet to catch fire soon. Vlad is far too good to bat .250 this year.

Buy: Erik Bedard (SEA, SP)

Yes, Bedard is highly renowned, just like Vlad, but he has had his struggles this year as well. Bedard's road ERA was 8.84 coming into his solid start at Fenway Sunday (5 innings, 1 ER).

Bedard's strikeout numbers are still solid (7.83 K/ 9 inn.), but he has walked 26 batters in just over 56 innings. This has inflated his WHIP a little bit, even though he has given up less than a hit per inning.

Bedard was supposed to be the ace for the M's this year, but he has not lived up to expectations.

Now may be a good time to swap for the Canadian.

His control has been solid the past few years, so a decrease in walks can be expected. When his walks subside, his WHIP will fall along with his ERA. He will not be a great source for wins because of the team he plays for, but he should improve the rest of this season.

Buy: Alex Hinshaw (SFG, RP)

Hinshaw has emerged into the Major Leagues relatively unknown. He has not carried a lot of hype like fellow youngsters Jay Bruce and Clayton Kershaw; however, Hinshaw has been exceptional.

Coming into Sunday, Hinshaw had gone 7.1 innings with a 2.45 ERA, 13 K's and just two BB's. Right now Brian Wilson is the clear closer in San Fran, but things can change quickly. The Giants are fading quickly in the NL and may end up moving Wilson.

Hinshaw is a good player to stash on the bench in deeper leagues and can rack up some nice numbers even if he's not closing.

Sell: Chipper Jones (ATL, 3B)

Chipper Jones is scorching hot. At around the 1/3 mark of this season, it is not out of the question that we see the first .400 season since Ted Williams batted .406.

So far this season, Chipper is at a robust .420. He is red hot from both sides of the plate and looks as good as he has ever looked in his career. Yet, if you have him on your fantasy team, you should trade him.

He has a small injury right now so it is probably best to wait until he comes back to try and shop him. But he has never batted above .337 in a full year (last year), and only broke .330 one other year.

It is not inconceivable that he crushes those numbers this year, but still, to ask anyone to bat .400 is extremely tough. If Chipper batted .380 for the year, which would be remarkable, he would bat .356 over the rest of the year (based on 600 AB).

.356 is still insane, but chances are he will cool off and go through a rough patch at some point. His value is as high as it has ever been in his career, maybe, so now is the best time to try and get what you can for Larry.

Sell: Todd Wellemeyer

This is another case where I would like to have him on my team, but his value has never been higher.

Wellemeyer has posted a 2.93 ERA to this point, with 62 K's and 25 BB's in 80 innings. I do not think Wellemeyer will be bad going forth, but he will definitely come back to Earth a little bit.

Last year he did post a 3.11 ERA in 63.2 innings, but that was only the second year he posted an ERA under five. Even if he has another year like last year where he does better than his career norms, he is still bound to cool off a bit.

Look for Wellemeyer to finish with an ERA around 3.30 with a WHIP around 1.25-1.30. If you would like to keep Wellemeyer, then that is fine and it looks like he will continue to do well, but to keep up this pace will be tough. Move him for a proven player or two if you can.

Sell: Brian Fuentes

Fuentes is doing nothing wrong, as he has posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with nine SV in 25.2 innings. He has also struck out 23 and walked only eight, so the numbers are there.

The reason to sell is based solely on what the Rockies may do with the former All-Star. It looks like if the Rockies continue to falter, then the Rox will try and move Fuentes to a team like the Yankees.

The Rockies have Taylor Buchholz ready to move into the closer role of the future if Colorado gets rid of Fuentes. So, although Fuentes has done a very nice job, and will probably continue to pitch well the rest of the year, he may be moved into a setup role, yielding him rather useless unless you are in a league with holds.

New York Yankees: Joba's Second Try A Huge Improvement

Evan Kulhawik — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 12:42:48 -0400

Whether moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation is a good move or not is now a moot point. The Yankees have made their decision, and they stand firm on their belief that Joba will be an ace in the starting rotation.

Joba's first go-round caused a lot of trouble for the Yanks, as it was apparent Joba's arm was not stretched out enough to carry far enough into a ballgame.

Joba was pulled after just 2.1 innings, and the Yankees bullpen felt the effects of his short start. The Yanks had to delve into a Joba-less bullpen early in the game, and the Bronx Bombers were set up for disaster.

Coming into today's tilt with the Royals, Joba was expected to throw between 70-80 pitches. Not only was Joba able to go deeper into the game this time, but he was much more effective.

In Joba's first start, it looked like he was carrying too much adrenaline into the start and was overthrowing. He threw a whopping 38 pitches in the first inning, and according to Joe Girardi, was one base-runner away from being pulled before he even got three outs.

This time around, on a scorching hot day in the Bronx, the mercury wasn't the only thing displaying heat. Joba was able to spot his pitches much better today, yet he still blew Jose Guillen away in the first inning with a 99 mph fastball.

In his first start, he struck out only three and walked four batters in his short stint. His command was on display today, as he struck out five and only walked one. Joba may have only given up one run today, if not for one hanging slider to Guillen (who has become a Yankee killer this series).

Regardless, Joba left with the Yanks trailing 3-2, and even though he could not win the game, he kept the Yankees in it.

He also left little strain on the bullpen, thanks in large part to Dan Giese. Giese was able to eat up 2.2 innings, while shutting down K.C. and picking up the win. The Yankees only had to use three relievers in Giese, Jose Veras, and Mariano Rivera.

Joba was able to do three things today: go deeper into the game, lift some of the stress off the bullpen, and keep the Yankees in the game. The last part is most important, because the Yankees offense eventually came through and led the team to a win.

It was a huge success today for the Yanks in stretching Joba out further, while still winning the game. I do not think stretching Joba out during the season was a good idea, but as long as they can continue winning while he develops, I have no problem watching it unfold.

It looks like the Yankees have a special player on their hands.