Bleacher Report - Articles by WhatIfSports.com

Week 12 Fantasy Football Projections

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:04:10 -0500

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com's Fantasy Football.

Each regular season game is simulated 10,001 times. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday each week. Information on scoring appears at the bottom of this article.

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Patriots	24.2
2.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Lions	23.9
3.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	Texans	22.2
4.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	Seahawks	20.3
5.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	Saints	20.1
6.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Lions	19.8
7.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Chiefs	19.6
8.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Jets	19.5
9.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Bills	19.2
10.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	Cardinals	19.2
11.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	Bears	18.9
12.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Steelers	18.9
13.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Broncos	18.9
14.	Brett Favre	QB	Vikings	Bears	18.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Steelers	18.4
16.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	Rams	18.3
17.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Redskins	18.3
18.	Jason Snelling	RB	Falcons	Buccaneers	18.0
19.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	Ravens	17.4
20.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	Colts	16.7
21.	Daunte Culpepper	QB	Lions	Packers	16.5
22.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Titans	16.5
23.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	49ers	16.4
24.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	Jaguars	16.4
25.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Buccaneers	16.3
26.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Redskins	15.8
27.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	Browns	15.8
28.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	49ers	15.5
29.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Vikings	15.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Raiders	14.8
31.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Jaguars	14.6
32.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Packers	14.2
33.	Josh Freeman	QB	Buccaneers	Falcons	14.1
34.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Titans	13.9
35.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Giants	13.8
36.	Kyle Boller	QB	Rams	Seahawks	13.7
37.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	Texans	13.6
38.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	Browns	13.5
39.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	Eagles	13.3
40.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	Ravens	13.3
41.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Raiders	13.0
42.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	Panthers	12.9
43.	Vince Young	QB	Titans	Cardinals	12.9
44.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	Saints	12.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	Chargers	12.7
46.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	Bills	Dolphins	12.6
47.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	Panthers	12.3
48.	Justin Forsett	RB	Seahawks	Rams	12.3
49.	Brady Quinn	QB	Browns	Bengals	12.3
50.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	Saints	12.1
51.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	Chargers	12.1
52.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	Texans	12.0
53.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	Bears	12.0
54.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Chiefs	11.9
55.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	Dolphins	11.9
56.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	Ravens	11.7
57.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Vikings	11.6
58.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Giants	11.5
59.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Jaguars	11.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	Giants	11.5
61.	Bruce Gradkowski	QB	Raiders	Cowboys	11.3
62.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Jets	11.3
63.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	Broncos	11.3
64.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	Texans	11.1
65.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Bills	11.1
66.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	Colts	11.0
67.	Chris Chambers	WR	Chiefs	Chargers	10.9
68.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	Colts	10.9
69.	Rock Cartwright	RB	Redskins	Eagles	10.8
70.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Chiefs	10.8
71.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Patriots	10.7
72.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Patriots	10.6
73.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Patriots	10.6
74.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	Rams	10.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	Saints	10.5
76.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Lions	10.5
77.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	Browns	10.5
78.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Titans	10.4
79.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	Titans	10.3
80.	Calvin Johnson	WR	Lions	Packers	10.3
81.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Chiefs	10.3
82.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Redskins	10.2
83.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	Rams	10.2
84.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	Panthers	10.1
85.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Chiefs	10.0
86.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Broncos	9.9
87.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	49ers	9.8
88.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Buccaneers	9.8
89.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	Bengals	9.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Broncos	9.7
91.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	Bengals	9.5
92.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Jets	9.4
93.	Jermichael Finley	TE	Packers	Lions	9.4
94.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	Dolphins	9.3
95.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Bills	9.3
96.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Raiders	9.3
97.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Steelers	9.3
98.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Lions	9.2
99.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	Cardinals	9.2
100.	Carnell Williams	RB	Buccaneers	Falcons	9.2
101.	John Carney	K	Saints	Patriots	9.2
102.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	Ravens	9.2
103.	Bengals	DEF		Browns	9.2
104.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	Bears	9.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Chris Jennings	RB	Browns	Bengals	9.0
106.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	Saints	9.0
107.	Bernard Scott	RB	Bengals	Browns	9.0
108.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Broncos	9.0
109.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Jets	8.9
110.	Mario Manningham	WR	Giants	Broncos	8.8
111.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	Texans	8.8
112.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	Ravens	8.7
113.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	Rams	8.7
114.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Jets	8.6
115.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Lions	8.6
116.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Buccaneers	8.6
117.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Patriots	8.5
118.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	Browns	8.4
119.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Redskins	8.4
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	Bears	8.4
121.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Giants	8.3
122.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	Saints	8.3
123.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	Texans	8.3
124.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Packers	8.2
125.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	Seahawks	8.2
126.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	Vikings	8.2
127.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Patriots	8.1
128.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	Rams	8.1
129.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	Falcons	8.0
130.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	Chiefs	8.0
131.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Raiders	8.0
132.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	Eagles	8.0
133.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	Jaguars	8.0
134.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Titans	8.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Redskins	7.9
136.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Buccaneers	7.9
137.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	Dolphins	7.7
138.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Raiders	7.5
139.	Lex Hilliard	RB	Dolphins	Bills	7.5
140.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	Dolphins	7.5
141.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Titans	7.5
142.	Vikings	DEF		Bears	7.5
143.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	Colts	7.5
144.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	Ravens	7.4
145.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	Bills	7.3
146.	Darren McFadden	RB	Raiders	Cowboys	7.2
147.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	Panthers	7.1
148.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Vikings	7.1
149.	Chester Taylor	RB	Vikings	Bears	7.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Vikings	7.1
151.	Billy Cundiff	K	Ravens	Steelers	7.0
152.	Chargers	DEF		Chiefs	7.0
153.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Giants	6.9
154.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	Cowboys	6.8
155.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	Cowboys	6.8
156.	Dolphins	DEF		Bills	6.8
157.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Vikings	6.8
158.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	Chargers	6.8
159.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Broncos	6.7
160.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	Seahawks	6.7
161.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Buccaneers	6.7
162.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	49ers	6.7
163.	Brandon Gibson	WR	Rams	Seahawks	6.7
164.	Connor Barth	K	Buccaneers	Falcons	6.6
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	Falcons	6.6
166.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	Panthers	6.6
167.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	Cardinals	6.6
168.	David Thomas	TE	Saints	Patriots	6.5
169.	Kevin Boss	TE	Giants	Broncos	6.5
170.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	49ers	6.4
171.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	Eagles	6.3
172.	Donald Brown	RB	Colts	Texans	6.2
173.	Eagles	DEF		Redskins	6.2
174.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	Cowboys	6.1
175.	Panthers	DEF		Jets	6.1
176.	Visanthe Shiancoe	TE	Vikings	Bears	6.0
177.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Raiders	6.0
178.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Redskins	6.0
179.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Jaguars	6.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Brandon Jackson	RB	Packers	Lions	6.0
181.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	Giants	5.9
182.	Falcons	DEF		Buccaneers	5.9
183.	Cowboys	DEF		Raiders	5.9
184.	Jaguars	DEF		49ers	5.8
185.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	Cowboys	5.8
186.	Ravens	DEF		Steelers	5.8
187.	Laveranues Coles	WR	Bengals	Browns	5.8
188.	Titans	DEF		Cardinals	5.7
189.	Earnest Graham	RB	Buccaneers	Falcons	5.7
190.	Roy Williams	WR	Cowboys	Raiders	5.7
191.	Steelers	DEF		Ravens	5.6
192.	Leonard Weaver	RB	Eagles	Redskins	5.6
193.	Colts	DEF		Texans	5.5
194.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	Dolphins	5.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Andre Caldwell	WR	Bengals	Browns	5.5
196.	Brian Leonard	RB	Bengals	Browns	5.5
197.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Steelers	5.4
198.	Bryant Johnson	WR	Lions	Packers	5.4
199.	Quinton Ganther	RB	Redskins	Eagles	5.4
200.	Lance Long	WR	Chiefs	Chargers	5.4

*The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TE, all TDs are six points, each 25 yards passing are one point, interceptions are minus-two points, fumbles lost are minus-two points, each 10 yards receiving are one point, and two-point conversions are two points. For kickers, all extra points are one point and all field goals are at least three points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards. Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not included in overall rankings) earn one point for each solo tackle, one point for each sack, two points for each interception and six points for each touchdown. Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions, and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please Note

These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete against others in the SimLeagues.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Week 12 NFL Power Rankings: Chargers Move into Top Five

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:01:08 -0500

All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	87.1	33.6	19.2
2.	Indianapolis Colts	84.9	29.4	16.4
3.	Minnesota Vikings	77.4	28.6	19.2
4.	New England Patriots	69.8	27.7	20.2
5.	San Diego Chargers	64.0	25.5	20.1
6.	Cincinnati Bengals	59.7	23.6	20.2
7.	Pittsburgh Steelers	60.1	25.8	22.6
8.	Tennessee Titans	59.7	23.2	20.0
9.	Arizona Cardinals	58.1	24.8	21.8
10.	Philadelphia Eagles	57.9	24.9	22.3
11.	Dallas Cowboys	56.8	24.4	22.7
12.	Houston Texans	50.5	24.0	24.0
13.	Baltimore Ravens	55.0	24.0	21.8
14.	Green Bay Packers	53.5	26.3	25.2
15.	San Francisco 49ers	53.0	22.2	21.9
16.	Jacksonville Jaguars	51.0	23.1	22.0
	Team	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	New York Giants	56.5	25.9	24.1
18.	Miami Dolphins	47.7	22.1	22.9
19.	New York Jets	43.1	21.5	24.0
20.	Oakland Raiders	42.6	20.5	23.7
21.	Carolina Panthers	41.7	22.0	24.9
22.	Chicago Bears	40.4	20.1	23.4
23.	Denver Broncos	38.2	19.9	24.1
24.	Atlanta Falcons	38.1	20.3	24.2
25.	St. Louis Rams	37.3	21.9	26.7
26.	Seattle Seahawks	37.2	20.5	25.2
27.	Washington Redskins	36.2	19.2	24.3
28.	Kansas City Chiefs	36.0	18.9	23.5
29.	Detroit Lions	31.7	20.7	27.3
30.	Buffalo Bills	31.6	19.2	24.6
31.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	22.6	18.2	28.1
32.	Cleveland Browns	20.5	17.6	29.0

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Week 12 NFL Picks from WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:43:46 -0500

Last week, our picks were 92.3 percent accurate against the spread to keep us above 60 percent ATS—with a 73 percent success rate on our "lock of the week"—and just under 70 percent (69.4 percent) straight-up for the season. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 4 New England 24 @ No. 1 New Orleans 33
Another week, another huge quarterback battle.

Two weeks after Bill Belichick made the call of the year to help Peyton Manning and the Colts beat Tom Brady and the Patriots to help Indianapolis remain undefeated, the Patriots find themselves in a nearly identical situation.

This time, Brady and the Pats get their shot against Drew Brees and the perfect 10-0 New Orleans Saints.

New England, 7-3, rebounded from the debacle against the Colts with a 17-point victory over the New York Jets on Sunday. The Patriots have won four of their last five games and their schedule will only get easier from here on out.

With Brady back at the helm after missing all but a few minutes of last season, they boast one of the top offenses in the league in both passing and scoring. New England's signal-caller has thrown 20 touchdowns and just six interceptions and is averaging an impressive 7.7 yards per pass attempt.

Brady is one of five quarterbacks in the league to have a rating of 100 or higher for the season. New England's rushing attack has left something to be desired. No running back has eclipsed the 500-yard mark 10 games into the season and No. 1 back Laurence Maroney is averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. The team itself is averaging exactly 4.0, but that hasn't hindered a highly productive offense from averaging 5.9 yards per offensive play.

The Patriots' defense seems to mirror its offense, stopping the pass at one of the highest rates in the NFL but struggling more against the run. That fact should come into play this week as the Saints bring a varied and dangerous offense. New England has allowed less than 2,000 passing yards all season and opponents are averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt against them. Against the run, however, the Patriots are allowing nearly 4.5 yards per touch.

Brees is one of just a few quarterbacks to have outplayed Brady to this point. New Orleans boasts the top offense in the league and it bounced back from a close call against St. Louis by thrashing Tampa Bay on Sunday. This week's game is the Saints' toughest hurdle standing between them and a perfect regular season.

The Saints have more offensive weapons than any other team in the league this season. With Brees at the helm, they don't have quite as many passing yards as Brady and the Pats, but they aren’t far behind and they're actually averaging more yards per attempt, at 8.6.

And whereas New England has zero backs with 500 yards at this point, New Orleans has two and a third dynamic playmaker who averages 5.0 yards per carry. Mike Bell has seen the most carries, but is averaging the lowest yardage of the bunch at 4.5 yards per carry. Pierre Thomas also has more than 500 yards and averages an impressive 5.6 yards per touch. Reggie Bush, who wasn't able to play last week due to injury, is the third of the three-headed monster. Together, the rushing attack averages 4.8 yards per carry for an offense that averages an impressive 6.4 yards per snap.

Defensively, the Saints' numbers are nearly identical to those of the Patriots. New Orleans is allowing just 6.2 yards per pass attempt, but will see one of its toughest challenges of the season this week. The Saints will likely have the most success if they try to keep Brady and the Pats one-dimensional, and they could do that by continuing to stifle the New England’s run-game. But they haven't exactly been dominant against the run, giving up 4.6 yards per carry.

But let's be honest. For the second time in three weeks, all eyes will be on Brady in another quarterback battle. And for the second time in that span, Brady loses out. And this time, a fourth-quarter, fourth-down call won't likely factor into the outcome.

In 10,001 simulations (view predicted boxscore ), Brees and the Saints take care of Brady and the Pats 69.9 percent of the time of an average final score of 33-24. With New Orleans giving three points, they cover the spread 66.8 percent of the time. The total, at 55.5, is a much weaker play as the teams make the over at a 52.9 percent clip.

The Saints' rushing attack seems to make the difference as two different backs each average a touchdown in 50 percent of the simulations. Brees also tops Brady in both yardage and touchdowns.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 12
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Kansas City Chiefs	13.8	14	Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers	86.2	29	Simulate Game
Chicago Bears	14.0	16	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Vikings	86.0	30	Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns	14.5	13	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals	85.5	27	Simulate Game
Washington Redskins	26.5	17	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	73.5	26	Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders	27.7	15	Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys	72.3	25	Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	28.1	18	Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons	71.9	28	Simulate Game
New England Patriots	30.1	24	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	69.9	33	Simulate Game
Jacksonville Jaguars	44.5	18	Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers	55.5	22	Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals	46.3	21	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	53.7	24	Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks	47.4	22	Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams	52.6	25	Simulate Game
Pittsburgh Steelers	48.4	21	Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens	51.6	24	Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers	58.8	23	Boxscore
@ New York Jets	41.2	22	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	64.8	23	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	35.2	20	Simulate Game
New York Giants	69.1	27	Boxscore
@ Denver Broncos	30.9	23	Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers	69.4	29	Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions	30.6	24	Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts	75.0	27	Boxscore
@ Houston Texans	25.0	20	Simulate Game

Other Notable Games in Week 12

Broncos-Giants

In a battle of teams fighting to keep their status as playoff contenders, the New York Giants—fresh off finally winning again—travel to face the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are hoping to follow the Giants' lead by ending a month-long skid. The Giants win back-to-back games 69.1 percent of the time, but by less than a touchdown, making the Broncos plus-6.5 look pretty good at 59 percent.

Baltimore and injury-riddled Pittsburgh square off in a game that could end up playing a huge role in sorting out the playoff picture as well. The two teams will have to meet again in a few weeks, but could have the closest game this week as the host Ravens win just 51.6 percent of the time by just a field goal.

Other Notes from Week 12

Brady Quinn finally had the monster game that Browns fans have been waiting for since he was drafted. Then again, it did come against the Lions and somehow Cleveland still found a way to lose. The former Notre Dame quarterback likely returns to his struggling ways against the Cincinnati Bengals as he averages less than 200 yards per game over 10,000 simulations an likely matches his touchdown passes with picks.

Miami running back Ricky Williams couldn't have been bigger while stepping up in relief of the injured Ronnie Brown. Williams put the Dolphins on his back, scoring twice on the ground and once through the air to single-handedly beat Carolina. Expect another big game from him as he averages well over 100 yards and scores a touchdown.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 13 College Football Conference Rankings

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:38:19 -0500

WhatIfSports.com utilizes the results of the weekly college football power rankings to rank all 12 DI FBS conferences, including the independents. Conferences are ordered by winning percentage against other conferences in the over 700,000 simulated games. For more inforamtion, check out this week's college football power rankings.

Conferences Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Conference	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Big East	67.0	31.1	19.5
2.	SEC	64.2	30.1	19.4
3.	Pac-10	60.0	27.8	21.7
4.	Big 12	57.6	25.5	20.4
5.	Big Ten	57.2	25.1	20.8
6.	ACC	55.5	25.4	21.8
7.	Mountain West	47.2	23.0	24.3
8.	WAC	46.1	25.2	28.6
9.	C-USA	38.8	20.2	27.7
10.	Independents	35.3	18.6	29.2
11.	MAC	31.6	16.5	28.7
12.	Sun Belt	31.4	17.4	29.8

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Week 13 College Football Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:36:31 -0500

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams. We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

Most Notable Storyline

Does the Mountain West Conference deserve to be a Bowl Championship Series automatic-qualifying conference?

It's becoming a yearly question and seemingly every year the league's argument becomes more viable and it's a debate worth looking at again as we reach the penultimate week of the college football season.

The MWC still ranks well below the six BCS qualifiers in our weekly conference power rankings , but only the Pac-10, with four, has more teams ranked in the top 20 of this week's team power rankings than the Mountain West, with three.

TCU obviously holds down the highest spot and even though the Horned Frogs drop a spot this week, they still sit just behind Texas and win nearly 97 percent of their 100 games against every other FBS school.

The Utah Utes , who have lost only to TCU and Oregon, jump two spots this week after knocking off San Diego State. Utah is beating 81.5 percent of all its FBS opponents.

And BYU, which plummeted last week after narrowly escaping then-winless New Mexico, saw its stock rise after the Cougars scored a big victory over Air Force and the Lobos got their first win of the season. BYU jumps 11 spots to 16th and is also winning four out of every five games against other FBS schools.

But the argument comes in whether top to bottom, the MWC stacks up with the nation's elite conferences. Right now, that doesn't seem to be the case. In fact, its bottom five teams rank 87th or worse out of 120 teams. And while there are three league teams in the top 20, there are four in the bottom 20.

Wyoming lost to TCU this week, but that didn’t have an effect on its ranking as the Cowboys sit 87th. San Diego State was knocked out of bowl contention, but actually moved up despite its loss coming in at No. 101.

UNLV, which fired coach Mike Sanford last week, will see him coach the Rebels' final game this week, was idle and fell three spots to 107. Colorado State lost its eighth consecutive game and drops nine more spots to 109 and New Mexico, which beat the Rams for its first victory of the year, jumps four spots to 112.

Biggest Gains

UCF backed up its victory over Houston two weeks ago, proving it was no fluke, by dismantling Tulane 49-0 this time around. The shutout is good enough to move the Knights up 18 spots right to the middle of the pack in the FBS. UCF, which has won four of its last five, is now winning 49 percent of its games will all other FBS teams.

Volatile South Florida and North Carolina each picked up wins and each move up 16 spots this week. Penn State bounces back, rebounding 13 spots and the Texas Tech , which crushed Oklahoma, moves up 14.

Biggest Losses

It was a topsy-turvy week for teams called Knights. Just when Rutgers once again started looking legitimate,winning seven of eight games, the Scarlet Knights were handed their ugliest loss of the season at Syracuse. It cost them much of the progress they had made in the power rankings as they freefall 24 spots to 41st. They are now winning just 64.3 percent of their games.

Oklahoma State continued to prove the theory winning doesn't mean you're moving up. The Cowboys played without standout quarterback Zac Robinson and narrowly escaped hapless Colorado and fall 14 spots. Wisconsin ,which seemed destined for another 10-win season, might not get there after a loss to Northwestern. The Badgers dip 14 spots as well and Stanford ,which looked like the hottest team in the country, now becomes one of the coldest in terms of power ranking, slides slipping 12 spots.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Florida Gators	-	98.3	51.4	7.9
2.	Texas Longhorns	+1	97.2	46.9	7.6
3.	TCU Horned Frogs	-1	96.9	50.5	9.5
4.	Alabama Crimson Tide	-	96.9	47.1	6.9
5.	Cincinnati Bearcats	-	92.9	48.9	14.9
6.	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	+1	91.4	51.2	19.1
7.	Boise State Broncos	-1	90.0	44.9	14.4
8.	Ohio State Buckeyes	+2	88.2	35.9	10.9
9.	Pittsburgh Panthers	-	87.6	41.7	15.0
10.	Penn State Nittany Lions	+13	87.5	37.3	13.7
11.	Virginia Tech Hokies	+1	85.4	39.2	15.3
12.	Oregon Ducks	-1	85.4	38.6	13.7
13.	Clemson Tigers	+6	82.0	34.9	14.8
14.	Utah Utes	+2	81.5	33.9	16.4
15.	Texas Tech Red Raiders	+14	80.9	34.1	15.7
16.	Brigham Young Cougars	+11	80.9	36.0	18.2
17.	Oregon State Beavers	-4	80.8	34.8	15.4
18.	Mississippi Rebels	+6	79.1	35.2	17.7
19.	Arizona Wildcats	+2	78.2	33.4	17.1
20.	Stanford Cardinal	-12	77.9	39.4	21.4
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
21.	California Golden Bears	+10	77.4	36.0	17.9
22.	USC Trojans	-	77.3	36.0	18.6
23.	Iowa Hawkeyes	-3	77.3	27.5	12.9
24.	Nebraska Cornhuskers	+2	77.1	29.0	13.3
25.	West Virginia Mountaineers	-	76.2	34.2	17.1
26.	Houston Cougars	+2	75.3	39.5	25.2
27.	LSU Tigers	-9	75.1	28.3	14.6
28.	Wisconsin Badgers	-14	74.8	32.5	18.2
29.	Oklahoma State Cowboys	-14	74.4	30.3	17.0
30.	Nevada Wolf Pack	+3	72.8	35.5	21.7
31.	South Florida Bulls	+16	72.7	34.7	21.8
32.	North Carolina Tar Heels	+16	69.8	21.9	13.7
33.	Connecticut Huskies	+6	68.4	30.3	18.9
34.	Temple Owls	+8	68.1	30.1	19.0
35.	Air Force Falcons	-5	67.8	27.5	18.4
36.	Missouri Tigers	+2	67.6	27.5	18.5
37.	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	+7	65.8	28.9	20.9
38.	Arkansas Razorbacks	-3	65.6	35.6	24.8
39.	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	-2	65.4	28.2	19.4
40.	Auburn Tigers	-4	64.5	31.7	22.1
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
41.	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	-24	64.3	25.0	18.7
42.	Central Michigan Chippewas	+13	62.7	27.8	20.5
43.	Georgia Bulldogs	-11	61.5	29.4	22.5
44.	South Carolina Gamecocks	-4	60.8	23.3	18.3
45.	Oklahoma Sooners	-11	59.9	23.6	19.4
46.	Florida State Seminoles	+4	59.8	32.8	27.9
47.	Michigan State Spartans	-6	59.5	29.4	23.7
48.	Tennessee Volunteers	-2	59.1	24.9	19.3
49.	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-6	58.3	29.0	25.2
50.	Fresno State Bulldogs	-5	55.9	32.4	28.8
51.	Troy Trojans	+2	55.8	27.8	24.9
52.	Idaho Vandals	-	55.0	30.5	27.7
53.	Purdue Boilermakers	+6	54.0	23.9	22.0
54.	Boston College Eagles	-3	53.9	20.3	18.8
55.	Texas A&M Aggies	+9	52.5	24.4	23.7
56.	Kansas State Wildcats	-	51.9	23.5	22.5
57.	East Carolina Pirates	+13	51.5	22.4	21.3
58.	Northwestern Wildcats	+10	51.4	21.3	22.2
59.	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	-2	51.1	22.7	22.7
60.	Kentucky Wildcats	+12	49.1	22.2	23.0
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
61.	UCF Knights	+18	49.0	18.8	20.2
62.	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	-	48.1	22.9	24.7
63.	Hawaii Warriors	-5	47.5	26.0	28.0
64.	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	+17	47.5	21.1	23.3
65.	Northern Illinois Huskies	-16	46.2	21.9	24.4
66.	Navy Midshipmen	-5	45.3	21.1	24.5
67.	Buffalo Bulls	+10	45.0	21.7	24.6
68.	Illinois Fighting Illini	-2	43.9	21.5	25.6
69.	Utah State Aggies	-15	43.3	23.4	28.6
70.	Arizona State Sun Devils	+3	43.2	16.8	21.5
71.	UAB Blazers	-11	43.1	24.9	27.6
72.	North Carolina State Wolfpack	-9	43.0	19.6	25.1
73.	UCLA Bruins	+9	43.0	17.7	22.7
74.	Ohio Bobcats	+2	43.0	17.1	21.7
75.	Southern Methodist Mustangs	-10	40.7	20.3	25.4
76.	Mississippi State Bulldogs	-2	40.3	21.0	26.7
77.	Syracuse Orange	+7	39.0	16.3	22.9
78.	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	+12	37.8	18.0	26.5
79.	Marshall Thundering Herd	+15	37.3	17.3	25.5
80.	Baylor Bears	-13	37.2	17.3	25.2
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
81.	Michigan Wolverines	-12	37.1	18.8	26.8
82.	Kansas Jayhawks	-4	36.3	18.6	25.8
83.	Toledo Rockets	+2	34.6	20.3	29.2
84.	Louisville Cardinals	+9	34.3	17.3	26.7
85.	UTEP Miners	+4	32.3	20.0	30.6
86.	Washington Huskies	+2	31.5	18.3	28.8
87.	Wyoming Cowboys	-	30.9	15.4	26.7
88.	Colorado Buffaloes	+15	30.7	15.2	25.8
89.	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-6	30.2	13.0	24.5
90.	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	-19	28.0	17.7	30.5
91.	Army Black Knights	+8	27.4	13.7	26.7
92.	Kent State Golden Flashes	-6	27.0	12.7	26.2
93.	Duke Blue Devils	+2	26.6	14.0	27.2
94.	Indiana Hoosiers	-19	25.8	15.1	28.8
95.	Arkansas State Red Wolves	-3	25.6	14.0	28.8
96.	Iowa State Cyclones	-5	25.3	15.9	30.6
97.	Western Michigan Broncos	-1	23.2	14.5	30.9
98.	Florida Atlantic Owls	-18	22.9	18.4	35.2
99.	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	-1	21.8	13.2	30.2
100.	Maryland Terrapins	+9	20.8	12.2	29.2
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
101.	San Diego State Aztecs	+6	20.7	10.9	28.7
102.	Vanderbilt Commodores	-5	20.3	11.2	29.6
103.	North Texas Mean Green	-2	19.5	14.7	35.2
104.	Virginia Cavaliers	+4	19.3	7.8	26.0
105.	Memphis Tigers	-	18.1	13.1	33.2
106.	Ball State Cardinals	-4	17.9	12.4	32.3
107.	UNLV Rebels	-3	17.5	14.5	35.5
108.	Bowling Green Falcons	-2	17.1	11.3	31.9
109.	Colorado State Rams	-9	16.7	10.0	31.7
110.	Rice Owls	+5	15.4	11.3	35.1
111.	Akron Zips	+2	14.4	10.7	33.8
112.	New Mexico Lobos	+4	11.5	8.4	33.4
113.	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	-1	10.0	10.6	40.6
114.	Tulane Green Wave	-4	8.6	8.2	36.5
115.	Miami (OH) RedHawks	-4	7.9	7.2	36.1
116.	Florida International Golden Panthers	-2	6.9	7.3	38.3
117.	San Jose State Spartans	+1	6.2	8.2	41.6
118.	New Mexico State Aggies	-1	5.8	7.7	40.3
119.	Washington State Cougars	-	5.4	6.9	40.2
120.	Eastern Michigan Eagles	-	4.0	6.6	42.3

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 13 College Football Picks

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:33:23 -0500

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football D-I FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, is located here.

The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 30 Nevada 33 @ No. 7 Boise State 45

The Boise State Broncos almost surely aren't going to be playing for a national championship. They might even get shut out of a Bowl Championship Series bowl game. They won't have to worry about either of those things if they can't finish off their unbeaten season.

Just two more hurdles stand in Boise State's way of a perfect 12-0 season. Unluckily for the Broncos, this week's just happens to be their toughest opponent in weeks: a record-setting offense and a Nevada team that has won eight games in a row and will be looking for a perfect season of its own—in Western Athletic Conference, play that is.

Which unbeaten season remains intact over the final week?

Boise State took care of business against Utah State on Friday and has now won five straight games by double digits. The Broncos have scored at least 45 points in eight of 11 games and scored 81 combined in the three games they didn't reach 45.

Sophomore quarterback Kellen Moore has been about as good as any signal caller in the country, completing two-thirds of his passes for nearly 2,800 yards, 33 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. Gaining 8.33 yards per pass attempt, the Broncos' passing game ranks in the top 10 in the nation.

Their ground game, mostly behind feature back Jeremy Avery and goal-line threat Doug Martin, isn't far behind. They pick up 5.22 yards per carry, giving them one of the country's most prolific offenses at 6.66 yards per play.

We know the Broncos can play offense, but will they be able to stop—or at least slow down—another one of the nation's most dynamic offensive units?

Nevada specializes in its ground attack, and the Broncos are run-of-the-mill at stopping the run. Opponents average 3.80 yards per carry against Boise State. That said, after giving up more than 300 yards rushing against Fresno State, they held five opponents under 100 yards on the ground before giving up 209 to Idaho.

Against the pass, the Broncos are amongst the nation's best in terms of interceptions. They are one of just 16 teams giving up fewer than six yards per pass attempt.

After losing three consecutive non-conference games to start the season, the Wolf Pack has bounced back in a big way, and they rolled New Mexico State last week for their eighth consecutive victory. A victory at Boise State would give them a perfect 8-0 league season and the WAC championship.

They'll try to get there by using their stunningly successful ground attack, which has seen Nevada become the first team in NCAA history to post three 1,000-yard rushers in one season.

Vai Taua leads the way with 1,185 yards and is followed closely by quarterback Colin Kaepernick and Luke Lippincott. None of them average less than 7.7 yards per carry, and the team nearly averages that same number, making the Wolf Pack far and away the best rushing offense in the nation.

Kaepernick hasn't been bad through the air when they've needed to go that route either. They rank outside the top 100 in terms of passing yards per game but still average a respectable 7.32 yards per pass attempt.

But can Nevada slow down Boise's offense in what figures to be a track meet? For as good as the Wolf Pack has been on the ground offensively, they've been pretty good at stopping opponents. Nevada gives up just 3.53 yards per carry.

The Broncos should, however, be able to have their way through the air. Nevada ranks second-to-last amongst 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams against the pass in terms of yards per game and are in the bottom five in yards per attempt, giving up 8.85 yards.

Both teams have phenomenal offenses that should be able to find the gaps in each team's defense, but who does it better? Well, which school from a non-BCS conference school has done it better than just about any other since the BCS' inception?

Boise State takes care of Nevada, capturing the WAC championship and keeping its dream season alive. In 10,001 simulations, the Broncos move to 11-0 79.5 percent of the time and by an average final score of 45-33.

Other Notable Games in Week 13

Here's what we already know: Ohio State has won the Big Ten; Florida and Alabama will play for the SEC championship; Nebraska and Texas will do the same in the Big 12; Clemson and Georgia Tech will battle for the ACC crown; and TCU has already won the Mountain West Conference. We also know that Oregon and Oregon State will vie for the Pac-10 title, but that won't come until next week.

All of that means that there isn't a whole lot on the line this week.

Outside of the WAC, the biggest game comes from the Big East, where Pittsburgh travels to West Virginia. The Panthers are hoping to remain unbeaten in conference play heading into next week's game with Cincinnati and do so 57.6 percent of the time by a score of 29-27. The Bearcats move to 11-0 86.1 percent of the time against Illinois.

As for the other unbeatens: Florida takes care of Florida State at an 82.5 percent clip; Alabama heads into the aforementioned title game with the Gators unbeaten 86.8 percent of the time at Auburn; Texas closes out a perfect regular season 94.7 percent of the time at Texas A&M; and TCU cruises to 12-0 95 percent of the time against one-win New Mexico.

In total, there is a 44.1 percent chance that all six current FBS undefeated teams win this week. In other words, there is a 55.9 percent chance that at least one undefeated team loses.

In the preseason, we had Oklahoma and Oklahoma State squaring off in our predicted Game of the Week. But with Sam Bradford out and only the Cowboys clinging to BCS hopes, that game skipped the back seat and went straight to the trunk. Oklahoma State does win that matchup 63.6 percent of the time.

In the Charlie Weis Watch—presumably for one more week—Notre Dame loses at Stanford 71.5 percent of the time by two scores.

To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

College Football Week 13
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Georgia Bulldogs	14.6	22
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	85.4	38
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	68.9	23
@ Duke Blue Devils	31.1	18
Boston College Eagles	80.1	21
@ Maryland Terrapins	19.9	14
North Carolina Tar Heels	86.8	23
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	13.2	10
Virginia Tech Hokies	94.7	32
@ Virginia Cavaliers	5.3	14
Illinois Fighting Illini	13.9	24
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	86.1	40
Syracuse Orange	22.5	14
@ Connecticut Huskies	77.5	28
Pittsburgh Panthers	57.6	29
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	42.4	27
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	66.9	21
@ Louisville Cardinals	33.1	19
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	66.9	30
@ South Florida Bulls	33.1	25
Northern Illinois Huskies	17.9	17
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	82.1	30
Eastern Michigan Eagles	27.2	12
@ Akron Zips	72.8	22
Ball State Cardinals	37.7	16
@ Western Michigan Broncos	62.3	23
Toledo Rockets	61.6	24
@ Bowling Green Falcons	38.4	22
Buffalo Bulls	68.2	21
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	31.8	16
Temple Owls	72.8	24
@ Ohio Bobcats	27.2	17
UCLA Bruins	19.9	18
@ USC Trojans	80.1	30
Washington State Cougars	27.8	14
@ Washington Huskies	72.2	24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	28.5	26
@ Stanford Cardinal	71.5	37
Arizona Wildcats	84.8	26
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	15.2	16
Florida State Seminoles	17.2	22
@ Florida Gators	82.8	37
Arkansas Razorbacks	33.8	21
@ LSU Tigers	66.2	28
Tennessee Volunteers	60.3	22
@ Kentucky Wildcats	39.7	19
Clemson Tigers	74.8	24
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	25.2	17
Alabama Crimson Tide	86.8	30
@ Auburn Tigers	13.2	16
Mississippi Rebels	90.1	36
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	9.9	18
Nevada Wolf Pack	20.5	33
@ Boise State Broncos	79.5	45
Utah State Aggies	24.5	27
@ Idaho Vandals	75.5	37
New Mexico State Aggies	45.7	14
@ San Jose State Spartans	54.3	17
Navy Midshipmen	76.2	33
@ Hawaii Warriors	23.8	23
Oklahoma State Cowboys	63.6	23
@ Oklahoma Sooners	36.4	21
Missouri Tigers	82.1	34
@ Kansas Jayhawks	17.9	24
Nebraska Cornhuskers	90.7	28
@ Colorado Buffaloes	9.3	13
Texas Longhorns	94.7	36
@ Texas A&M Aggies	5.3	13
Texas Tech Red Raiders	95.0	37
@ Baylor Bears	5.0	15
Rice Owls	5.0	18
@ Houston Cougars	95.0	47
Tulane Green Wave	6.6	13
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	93.4	33
Memphis Tigers	34.4	21
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	65.6	27
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	59.6	28
@ East Carolina Pirates	40.4	28
UCF Knights	60.3	26
@ UAB Blazers	39.7	24
Marshall Thundering Herd	77.5	26
@ UTEP Miners	22.5	18
New Mexico Lobos	5.0	8
@ TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	45
Utah Utes	45.7	27
@ Brigham Young Cougars	54.3	29
San Diego State Aztecs	49.0	18
@ UNLV Rebels	51.0	20
Wyoming Cowboys	64.2	19
@ Colorado State Rams	35.8	16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	17.2	17
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	82.8	35
North Texas Mean Green	38.4	16
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	61.6	25
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	44.4	19
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	55.6	22
Troy Trojans	92.7	32
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	7.3	15

Ever wanted to be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling—it is all under your control. Start at D-III and try to work your way up to winning the D-I championship at your favorite school.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

16-0: Colts Vs Saints

WhatIfSports.com — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:11:17 -0500

The New Orleans Saints needed to hold on against one of the NFL's worst teams. The Indianapolis Colts took advantage of a gift from one of the game's best.

The league's two remaining undefeated teams each avoided their closest scares of the season in Week 10. Will it be the closest the Saints and Colts come to losing this year? Which remaining week presents the biggest hurdle? Is there any chance we see two undefeated teams in one season?

With seven weeks remaining, we try to tackle all of those questions.

The St. Louis Rams seemed like the least likely team to give New Orleans fits. After all, the Saints had won six of their eight games by two scores or more. But the Rams held tough and were only defeated when Marc Bulger’s last-ditch heave went unrewarded.

Now the Saints, who have tied a franchise record with nine straight victories, are seven weeks away from a perfect season.

The good news for Drew Brees and New Orleans is that they face four teams that currently have losing records. The bad news is that they've still got New England (the team that had Indianapolis beat last week until a late-game blunder) still on the schedule.

Based on 10,001 simulations of each game left on the NFL schedule (see below), the Saints have an 89 percent chance of setting a franchise record with a 10-0 start against Tampa Bay this weekend, but there's little doubt that their stiffest remaining test will come in Week 12 against the Patriots.

New Orleans gets New England at home and, according to our current numbers, the Saints take down the Patriots nearly two-thirds of the time and by about a touchdown.

If New Orleans makes it past New England, it will almost certainly get by Washington to go 12-0 in Week 13. Then it's on to back-to-back weeks against NFC playoff contenders. Still, at this point, they win three of every four matchups at Atlanta and hosting Dallas, beating each team by about a touchdown as well.

And if they get through that gauntlet, they could be smooth-sailing to 16-0 with a better than 80 percent chance of taking down Tampa Bay again,and Carolina to close out the season.

The Saints never have lower than a 65 percent chance of losing any individual game. But winning all seven of those in a row is another thing. While favored in every game, New Orleans has just a 22.0 percent chance to duplicate New England's 2007 feat and finish the regular season unblemished.

With regards to the individual statistics we project as part of our fantasy football analysis , Drew Brees finishes the rest of the season with 2,021 passing yards, 17 TDs and six INTs to give him a season total of 4,580 yards, 38 TDs and 15 INTs. The team scores 229 points and allows 142 to finish the year averaging exactly 35 points a game and giving up 21.8 a contest.

New Orleans Projected Results in Remaining Games:

Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
11	@Tampa Bay Buccaneers	89	33-18
12	New England Patriots	66	32-25
13	@Washington Redskins	89	32-17
14	@Atlanta Falcons	76	30-23
15	Dallas Cowboys	76	34-22
16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	89	36-15
17	@Carolina Panthers	82	32-22

The Patriots had the Colts dead to rights on Sunday. And if not for the fourth-down decision heard round the world, Indianapolis might not even be included in this discussion. Instead, Peyton Manning took advantage of New England's turnover on downs and turned it into a 9-0 start.

The toughest part of the Colts' challenge of getting to 16-0 might really be getting to 12-0. And they face their toughest remaining hurdle right away this week as they travel to Baltimore. The Ravens are 5-4 and trying to find themselves after a strong start.

Based on 10,001 simulations of each game left on the NFL schedule (see below), Indianapolis wins 65 percent of the time by an average of five points.

If the Colts can get by the Ravens, they get another road test at Houston where they win 74 percent of the time and by just six points. Then they'll host the up-and-coming Tennessee Titans, where they win 75 percent of the time.

The difficulty of Indianapolis' schedule certainly comes in the next three weeks. If the Colts can survive three more games, they could be in the clear.

With the Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills on the slate over the final five weeks, the Colts are not projected to lose more than 20 percent of the time in 10,001 computer simulations against each of those teams.

While that daunting three-week stretch looks brutal, Indianapolis actually has a better chance of going 16-0 than New Orleans, by mere percentage points.

The Colts never have lower than a 69 percent chance to win any of their remaining games individually, but putting a seven-game streak on top of the nine-game roll they've already put together only occurs 22.2 percent of the time (just slightly more likely than the Saints).

According to our fantasy football projections , Peyton Manning finishes the rest of the season with 1,858 passing yards, 15 TDs and four INTs to give him a total of 4,730 yards, 45 TDs and 11 INTs. The team scores 202 points and allows 123 to finish the year averaging 28.4 points a game and giving up 16.6 a contest.

Indianapolis Projected Results in Remaining Games:

Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
11	@Baltimore Ravens	69	25-20
12	@Houston Texans	74	26-20
13	Tennessee Titans	75	28-19
14	Denver Broncos	88	30-15
15	@Jacksonville Jaguars	83	28-19
16	New York Jets	89	34-14
17	@Buffalo Bills	89	31-16

Never have two teams ever gone undefeated in the same season. Don't expect it to happen this season, either. But as with anything, there is a chance.

The Colts and Saints finish a combined 32-0 just 4.88 percent of the time. With each team having just over a one in five chance of ending the regular season without a loss, there is about a one in 20 chance that both teams do it.

Want to know where these teams rank in NFL history? Try our free NFL SimMatchup tool to play any current team against any team since 1940.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 11 NFL Fantasy Football Projections

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:04:21 -0500

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com's Fantasy Football .

Each regular season game is simulated 10,001 times. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday each week. Information on scoring appears at the bottom of this article.

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Buccaneers	24.7
2.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	Texans	22.1
3.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	Ravens	22.0
4.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	Jets	21.4
5.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	Chiefs	21.0
6.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Rams	20.6
7.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	Seahawks	20.4
8.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Broncos	20.3
9.	Brett Favre	QB	Vikings	Seahawks	20.0
10.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	49ers	19.9
11.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Bears	19.4
12.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	Bills	19.0
13.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	Cardinals	18.6
14.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Packers	18.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Jason Snelling	RB	Falcons	Giants	17.0
16.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Rams	16.3
17.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	Titans	16.3
18.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Colts	15.9
19.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Panthers	15.9
20.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	Raiders	15.8
21.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Eagles	15.8
22.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	Vikings	15.7
23.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Buccaneers	15.6
24.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Redskins	15.5
25.	Ladell Betts	RB	Redskins	Cowboys	15.5
26.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Bears	15.4
27.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Falcons	15.2
28.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Colts	14.9
29.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	Chiefs	14.9
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Giants	14.9
31.	Justin Forsett	RB	Seahawks	Vikings	14.8
32.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	Bills	14.8
33.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	Seahawks	14.7
34.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	Jets	14.3
35.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	Packers	14.3
36.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	Steelers	14.2
37.	Matthew Stafford	QB	Lions	Browns	14.1
38.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Eagles	13.9
39.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	Cowboys	13.8
40.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	Jets	13.7
41.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Browns	13.5
42.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Chargers	13.4
43.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	49ers	13.3
44.	Trent Edwards	QB	Bills	Jaguars	13.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	Patriots	13.2
46.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Chargers	13.2
47.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	Steelers	12.7
48.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	Patriots	12.6
49.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	Ravens	12.5
50.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Rams	12.4
51.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Dolphins	12.2
52.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	Raiders	12.2
53.	Josh Freeman	QB	Buccaneers	Saints	12.1
54.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Falcons	12.1
55.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	Titans	12.0
56.	Vince Young	QB	Titans	Texans	12.0
57.	Marc Bulger	QB	Rams	Cardinals	11.9
58.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Dolphins	11.8
59.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	Jets	11.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Brady Quinn	QB	Browns	Lions	11.7
61.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	Jets	11.7
62.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Rams	11.4
63.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Broncos	11.3
64.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Broncos	11.3
65.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	Raiders	11.2
66.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	Lions	11.2
67.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	Chiefs	11.2
68.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Panthers	11.2
69.	Carnell Williams	RB	Buccaneers	Saints	11.2
70.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Chargers	11.2
71.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	Ravens	11.0
72.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	Rams	11.0
73.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	Ravens	10.8
74.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	Jaguars	10.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Mewelde Moore	RB	Steelers	Chiefs	10.7
76.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	Chiefs	10.7
77.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Broncos	10.5
78.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Buccaneers	10.4
79.	Tashard Choice	RB	Cowboys	Redskins	10.4
80.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Giants	10.3
81.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Dolphins	10.1
82.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	Patriots	10.0
83.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	49ers	10.0
84.	Bengals	DEF		Raiders	9.9
85.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	Vikings	9.8
86.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Falcons	9.7
87.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	Texans	9.6
88.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	Raiders	9.5
89.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	Jets	9.4
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Redskins	9.4
91.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	Eagles	9.4
92.	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Chiefs	Steelers	9.3
93.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Broncos	9.3
94.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Bears	9.2
95.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	Buccaneers	9.2
96.	Ryan Moats	RB	Texans	Titans	9.1
97.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Bears	9.1
98.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Bears	9.1
99.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	Seahawks	9.0
100.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	Falcons	9.0
101.	John Carney	K	Saints	Buccaneers	9.0
102.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Redskins	9.0
103.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Rams	9.0
104.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	Ravens	8.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Browns	8.7
106.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Buccaneers	8.6
107.	Chris Jennings	RB	Browns	Lions	8.6
108.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	49ers	8.6
109.	Calvin Johnson	WR	Lions	Browns	8.6
110.	Chris Chambers	WR	Chiefs	Steelers	8.6
111.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	Chiefs	8.5
112.	Bernard Scott	RB	Bengals	Raiders	8.5
113.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Redskins	8.3
114.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	49ers	8.3
115.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Panthers	8.3
116.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Dolphins	8.3
117.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	Bills	8.3
118.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	Chiefs	8.1
119.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	Jaguars	8.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	Lions	8.0
121.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Buccaneers	7.9
122.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	Cardinals	7.9
123.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Packers	7.9
124.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	Bengals	7.9
125.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Dolphins	7.8
126.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	Bills	7.8
127.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Eagles	7.8
128.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	Titans	7.8
129.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	Patriots	7.6
130.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	Titans	7.6
131.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	Seahawks	7.6
132.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Packers	7.5
133.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	Panthers	7.5
134.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Falcons	7.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	Ravens	7.3
136.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	Jaguars	7.3
137.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	Jaguars	7.3
138.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Giants	7.2
139.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	Vikings	7.2
140.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	Saints	7.2
141.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	Vikings	7.2
142.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	Rams	7.2
143.	JaMarcus Russell	QB	Raiders	Bengals	7.2
144.	Eagles	DEF		Bears	7.1
145.	Phil Dawson	K	Browns	Lions	7.0
146.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Bears	6.9
147.	Muhsin Muhammad	WR	Panthers	Dolphins	6.9
148.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Eagles	6.9
149.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Giants	6.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Steven Hauschka	K	Ravens	Colts	6.8
151.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Falcons	6.8
152.	Brandon Gibson	WR	Rams	Cardinals	6.8
153.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	Bills	6.8
154.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	Texans	6.7
155.	Vikings	DEF		Seahawks	6.7
156.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	Jaguars	6.6
157.	Patriots	DEF		Jets	6.6
158.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	Cowboys	6.5
159.	Steelers	DEF		Chiefs	6.5
160.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Redskins	6.5
161.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Chargers	6.5
162.	Roy Williams	WR	Cowboys	Redskins	6.5
163.	Braylon Edwards	WR	Jets	Patriots	6.4
164.	Quinton Ganther	RB	Redskins	Cowboys	6.4
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Malcolm Floyd	WR	Chargers	Broncos	6.4
166.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Redskins	6.3
167.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Giants	6.3
168.	Maurice Morris	RB	Lions	Browns	6.3
169.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Buccaneers	6.2
170.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Eagles	6.2
171.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Colts	6.2
172.	Aaron Stecker	RB	Falcons	Giants	6.2
173.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	Packers	6.2
174.	Chester Taylor	RB	Vikings	Seahawks	6.2
175.	David Thomas	TE	Saints	Buccaneers	6.2
176.	Saints	DEF		Buccaneers	6.1
177.	Lions	DEF		Browns	6.1
178.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	Patriots	6.1
179.	Chargers	DEF		Broncos	6.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	Bengals	6.0
181.	Titans	DEF		Texans	6.0
182.	Fred Davis	TE	Redskins	Cowboys	5.9
183.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	Cowboys	5.9
184.	Tony Scheffler	TE	Broncos	Chargers	5.9
185.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	Steelers	5.9
186.	Donald Brown	RB	Colts	Ravens	5.8
187.	Le'Ron McClain	RB	Ravens	Colts	5.8
188.	Leonard Weaver	RB	Eagles	Bears	5.8
189.	Connor Barth	K	Buccaneers	Saints	5.8
190.	Cowboys	DEF		Redskins	5.8
191.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	Cardinals	5.7
192.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	Broncos	5.6
193.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	Chargers	5.6
194.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	Bengals	5.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Andre Caldwell	WR	Bengals	Raiders	5.5
196.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Colts	5.5
197.	Mario Manningham	WR	Giants	Falcons	5.5
198.	Panthers	DEF		Dolphins	5.5
199.	John Carlson	TE	Seahawks	Vikings	5.4
200.	Jaguars	DEF		Bills	5.3

For kickers, all extra points are one point and all field goals are at least three points, with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards.

Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not included in overall rankings) earn one point for each solo tackle, one point for each sack, two points for each interception, and six points for each touchdown.

Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions, and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules, or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete against others in the SimLeagues .

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 11 NFL Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:01:11 -0500

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

Most Notable Move:
Leaving points off the scoreboard didn't seem to hurt the Jacksonville Jaguars in the power rankings. As Jack Del Rio might say, it's all about the victory.

Maurice Jones-Drew downed the ball at the one-yard line, keeping the New York Jets from getting the ball back and winning the game on a field goal instead and it helps the Jaguars hop up seven more spots in this week's NFL power rankings.

It's been a topsy-turvy season in Jacksonville, where the Jags will shoot for their first true winning streak this weekend when they host the Bills. At 5-4, they're still very much in the playoff picture and they’ve won back-to-back games twice, but never three games in a row.

After being trounced by Tennessee in the Titans' first victory of the season, the Jaguars dropped all the way to 22nd. A close victory over Kansas City didn’t move them anywhere. But after eeking out another game against the Jets, it was time to move back up.

Jacksonville skips back up to right at the middle line, coming in at 15th this week. They win more than 5 percent more of the 100 games against every other NFL foe than they did last week and once again are beating more than half of their opponents.

And the Jaguars may only move up. Four of their last seven games come against teams that currently have losing records, including three of their next four. Their toughest game in the next month comes against Houston, currently 5-4.

Biggest Gains:
Jacksonville nearly took home top honors in terms of those moving up in the rankings. Instead, the honor went to the Green Bay Packers , which shook off back-to-back losses—one to their former Hall of Fame quarterback and one to winless Tampa Bay—to hold Dallas to just one touchdown. Green Bay jumps from 19th all the way back up to No. 11, beating NFL opponents 58.8 percent of the time.

Honorable mention goes to the Cincinnati Bengals , who can no longer be considered a surprise. After beating Pittsburgh, Cincinnati moves up four more spots and is now a top-three team in the NFL.

Biggest Losses:
The wait will continue for the Atlanta Falcons to take down a top-tier team. They're 5-4 but haven't beaten a team that currently has a winning record and failed to sweep Carolina last weekend. Atlanta once seemed like a playoff team, but they're now on the outside looking in, especially in our power rankings. Their third loss in four games drops them nine spots to No. 22, where they are beating just 45.4 percent of the time.

Dishonorable mention goes to the Philadelphia Eagles . Like Atlanta, the Eagles are still in the playoff race thanks to the jumbled mess in the NFC East, but Philly lost its second consecutive game and drops eight spots to No. 16, and is now winning barely winning half of their simulated games.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	-	79.9	33.0	21.8
2.	Indianapolis Colts	-	78.2	28.5	17.9
3.	Cincinnati Bengals	+4	73.6	24.2	15.8
4.	Minnesota Vikings	+1	70.8	28.3	21.2
5.	New England Patriots	-1	70.3	28.3	20.1
6.	Pittsburgh Steelers	-3	68.0	27.3	20.6
7.	San Diego Chargers	+2	62.1	25.7	20.9
8.	Baltimore Ravens	+4	61.2	24.6	20.8
9.	Tennessee Titans	+2	59.2	24.1	20.2
10.	Dallas Cowboys	-4	59.1	25.6	22.3
11.	Green Bay Packers	+8	58.8	25.0	21.8
12.	Arizona Cardinals	+3	55.1	24.5	22.5
13.	San Francisco 49ers	+3	54.6	22.7	20.8
14.	Denver Broncos	-4	53.7	22.4	21.7
15.	Jacksonville Jaguars	+7	51.7	24.5	24.1
16.	Philadelphia Eagles	-8	51.6	24.0	23.3

17.	Houston Texans	-3	50.8	22.3	22.0
18.	New York Jets	-1	50.1	23.4	23.4
19.	Miami Dolphins	-1	47.9	22.1	23.1
20.	New York Giants	+1	45.7	23.9	24.9
21.	Carolina Panthers	-1	45.7	22.6	24.0
22.	Atlanta Falcons	-9	45.4	22.1	23.8
23.	Seattle Seahawks	+1	43.0	22.8	25.0
24.	St. Louis Rams	+2	42.3	22.5	25.6
25.	Chicago Bears	-	34.7	19.3	24.6
26.	Buffalo Bills	-3	34.6	20.0	24.9
27.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+1	31.2	18.5	25.3
28.	Washington Redskins	+4	28.8	17.6	25.2
29.	Oakland Raiders	-2	25.2	16.8	26.7
30.	Kansas City Chiefs	-1	23.5	17.7	27.3
31.	Detroit Lions	-1	22.2	19.0	29.4
32.	Cleveland Browns	-	20.8	17.1	29.4

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 11 NFL Picks from WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:58:04 -0500

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, is located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 22 Atlanta 21 @ No. 20 New York Giants 24

At one point, it appeared you could pencil them into the NFC playoffs. Ten games, three combined victories, and a lot of erasing later, the New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons are clinging to postseason hopes.

Now they'll take a crack at each other with perhaps a wild card spot—and certainly with some semblance of pride—on the line.

The Giants rolled out to 5-0 behind a hot start from Eli Manning and steady play from an always ferocious defense. But four of those five wins came against the likes of the Washington Redskins, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Kansas City Chiefs.

Against playoff-caliber teams in New Orleans, Philadelphia, San Diego, and Arizona, Manning has slowed, and the Giants' defense has evaporated in an 0-4 start. They'll be looking to end that skid coming off a bye week.

Atlanta has almost equaled New York’s demise. Matt Ryan picked up where he left off and the Falcons started off 4-1, but those victories came over Miami, Carolina, San Francisco, and Chicago. They are 1-3 since then and have given up four touchdowns in all three of those losses. Their only victory came against Washington.

Who shakes the skid to put themselves back in the playoff picture?

Ryan certainly isn't enjoying the success of last year's rookie campaign, but whether or not this season will be deemed a sophomore slump is yet to be seen. He's still completing nearly 60 percent of his passes and is averaging 6.7 yards per attempt with tight end Tony Gonzalez added to his arsenal.

Many had predicted Michael Turner to falter this season after carrying so much of Atlanta's offensive load last year, but he's shaken all of those doubts to average 5.0 yards per carry, scoring 10 touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Turner could miss this week's game with a high ankle sprain.

Gonzalez wasn't Atlanta's only big-name addition in the offseason. The Falcons added linebacker Mike Peterson to try to bolster their defense, but that side of the ball ranks in the bottom fourth of the league in numerous categories and has given up 117 points in the last four games. Atlanta is giving up 4.6 yards per carry on the ground and 7.4 yards per pass through the air.

The Giants' defense has long been the team’s focal point, and with most of the questions surrounding the wide receiver position for the G-Men, the defense was supposed to carry them into the playoffs once again.

Some of their numbers don't look as bad as Atlanta's, but New York has given up 143 points during its four-game losing streak. The Giants allow 4.5 yards per carry, 6.7 yards per pass attempt, and 5.1 yards per play.

Manning is trying to prove he's worth the big-money deal he received from the Giants and has thus far passed that test by playing tough and producing. He averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt and has thrown nearly twice as many touchdowns as interceptions.

He could use a little more help on the ground. The two-headed monster of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw has scored just six touchdowns this season with Jacobs averaging just 4.1 yards per carry.

In the battle of two of the NFL's worst slumping teams, the host New York Giants re-energize their playoff hopes coming off the bye week 55 percent of the time and by an average score of 24-21, in 10,000 simulations.

Ryan and Manning produce eerily similar numbers, as do their teams in general. Behind a near 100-yard game from Jason Snelling, the Falcons actually outgain the Giants in terms of yards and first downs.

But Jacobs and Bradshaw each find the end zone about 50 percent of the time, and while Lawrence Tynes actually has a decent chance of missing a kick, his leg seems to be the difference as indicated by the average score.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Click on the Boxscore below to see the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 11
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Seattle Seahawks	16.2	18	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Vikings	83.8	32	Simulate Game
Washington Redskins	20.9	17	Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys	79.1	27	Simulate Game
New York Jets	24.0	19	Boxscore
@ New England Patriots	76.0	31	Simulate Game
Buffalo Bills	27.2	17	Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars	72.8	26	Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns	35.2	17	Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions	64.8	23	Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons	45.0	21	Boxscore
@ New York Giants	55.0	24	Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers	46.7	21	Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers	53.3	24	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	47.0	20	Boxscore
@ Carolina Panthers	53.0	22	Simulate Game
Tennessee Titans	64.5	23	Boxscore
@ Houston Texans	35.5	20	Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts	68.9	25	Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens	31.1	20	Simulate Game
San Diego Chargers	69.7	24	Boxscore
@ Denver Broncos	30.3	20	Simulate Game
Philadelphia Eagles	71.0	25	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	29.0	20	Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals	75.9	28	Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams	24.1	20	Simulate Game
Pittsburgh Steelers	80.5	29	Boxscore
@ Kansas City Chiefs	19.5	19	Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals	85.4	24	Boxscore
@ Oakland Raiders	14.6	12	Simulate Game
New Orleans Saints	89.1	33	Boxscore
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10.9	18	Simulate Game

Other Notable Games in Week 11

At one point it looked like the Denver Broncos might surprisingly run away with an AFC West title. That lead has evaporated, and the driver's seat of the division will be on the line this week when they host the San Diego Chargers.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers takes down whichever signal caller Denver throws his way, winning 69.7 percent of the time on the road and by a score of 24-20.

The NFL's unbeatens nearly stumbled last week, and the Colts could have their hands full again. Peyton Manning throws at least two touchdowns as Indianapolis wins, but just 68.9 percent of the time at Baltimore.

Drew Brees and New Orleans should have an easier go of things against Tampa Bay. The Saints keep their perfect run going 89.1 percent of the time and by more than two touchdowns.

Other Notable Names in Week 11

Kurt Warner has looked like his old MVP self the past two weeks, throwing for more than 600 yards and seven touchdowns while leading Arizona to a two-game lead in the NFC West. He should keep that run going against the St. Louis Rams, averaging two touchdowns and 270 yards in nearly 10,000 simulations while leading the Cardinals to victory more than 75 percent of the time.

Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew has at least one touchdown in each of his last four games, not eclipsing the 100-yard mark just once over that span when he ran for 97 yards against the Chiefs. He should keep that impressive streak going when the Jaguars host the Bills, as he averages over 100 yards and about one touchdown.

Sorry fantasy owners, no formula for finding out how often he downs the ball at the one.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Ruling the Buckeye State: Cincinnati or Ohio State?

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:25:32 -0500

We don't need a computer to determine Cincinnati's chances of making the Rose Bowl, so we likely won't get to see the Bearcats and Ohio State Buckeyes square off this season.

That won't stop us from seeing what would happen if they both found their way onto the same football field (or at least in our computers), to determine the best college football team in Ohio.

Thus, we take a look at what might happen in a 2009 Ohio Bowl.

Ohio State beat Iowa on Saturday to earn at least a share of the Big Ten title and a spot in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes are 9-2 with their only losses coming at home against USC and on the road at Purdue.

At the time, USC was considered one of, if not the most talented team in the country and Purdue was just a bad loss to a bad team. Terrell Pryor was hearing a lot of criticism and people were actually calling for Jim Tressel's head. However, now—behind that same Terrell Pryor and coach Tressel—they've won four games in a row and are bowling in roses.

Pryor is Ohio State's leading passer and rusher, throwing for nearly 1,800 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and rushing for 633 yards and seven more scores. The Buckeyes rushing numbers per game look good, but they’re only averaging a run-of-the-mill 4.65 yards per carry.

While their rushing attack may not be as good as its numbers, Ohio State's passing attack is probably a little better than some numbers show. The Buckeyes rank outside the top 100 in passing yards per game, but still average 7.37 yards per pass attempt.

But it's their defense that has really shouldered the load in leading the Buckeyes to another Big Ten title. There is nothing deceiving about the nation's fourth-ranked rushing defense, which is one of just 12 teams giving up fewer than three yards per carry.

There are even fewer teams in the country that give up fewer yards per attempt than Ohio State. It's allowing just 5.41 yards per passing attempt. The Buckeyes may not look as strong as in past seasons in which they have been included in BCS bowls, but make no joke, at 4.05 yards per play, their defense ranks amongst the best in the country.

But that defensive prowess will be stacked up against one of the nation's premier offensive teams. Cincinnati is 10-0 despite losing its starting quarterback and Heisman Trophy hopeful earlier this season. The Bearcats dominated the early part of the season, but have won their last two games by a combined three points, and scored a season-low 24 points against West Virginia on Friday.

Whether Tony Pike or Zach Collaros has been at quarterback hasn't really mattered all that much. When it comes down to it, the Bearcats have one of the nation's top offensive attacks either way. Only Nevada is averaging more yards per play in the country than Cincinnati's 7.45 yards per play, and the Bearcats are only losing that race by 0.01 yards per play.

With two quarterbacks that have played nearly equal time and both played on Friday, we use the average numbers of both of them and a passing offense that ranks third in the nation at 9.33 yards per passing attempt.

Lost in all of the Bearcats' passing accolades is their rushing offense. With Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey carrying the ball, Cincinnati averages 5.37 yards per carry.

On defense, Cincinnati has been no slouch, either. Despite entering the year with 10 new starters, the Bearcats rank right in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed per game, but give up fewer than 3.5 yards per carry. Through the air, the Bearcats have allowed just eight touchdowns all year.

They rank outside the top 40 in the country in passing yards per game as well, but they are only allowing 6.18 yards per pass attempt.

It's one of the nation's best offenses against one of the nation's stiffest defense. It's a run-of-the-mill offense against a run-of-the-mill defense. It's the battle for Ohio supremacy and arguably the nation's top offense wins out.

In 10,000 simulations between Ohio State and Cincinnati, the Bearcats win three-quarters of the time—75.2 percent to be exact—and by an average final score of 30-23.

With such a convincing victory, maybe the question shouldn't be which team is the best college team in Ohio, but which team (after the Bengals) is second best at any level in the state of Ohio (and if the Browns would finish fourth or worse in that debate).

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that.

From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Week 12 College Football Conference Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:08:27 -0500

Conferences Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Conference	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Big East	65.4	30.2	19.7
2.	SEC	65.2	29.5	19.2
3.	Pac-10	59.5	27.3	21.7
4.	Big 12	58.3	25.2	20.5
5.	Big Ten	57.5	25.1	20.3
6.	ACC	54.0	24.6	21.7
7.	Mountain West	47.5	25.8	27.6
8.	WAC	46.9	23.0	23.8
9.	C-USA	38.1	20.0	27.6
10.	Independents	36.6	19.3	29.1
11.	Sun Belt	32.2	17.5	29.3
12.	MAC	31.5	15.9	28.3

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 12 College Football Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:04:06 -0500

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic, and unbiased ranking of all teams.

We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games.

Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

Most Notable Storyline

With back-to-back victories over Oregon and USC, Stanford has exploded onto the national scene. After dominating USC, the Cardinal continued blasting its way up the rankings, leaping into the top 10 for the first time this season.

Nearly a month ago, heading into Week Eight of the college football season, Stanford simply helped fill in the middle of the pack, winning 65.1 percent of their 100 games against all other FBS opponents.

Two weeks later, as the Cardinal prepared for their big game with Oregon, they moved up 14 spots and were winning 71.2 percent of those games.

Two monumental games later and Toby Gerhart and Stanford are all the way up to eighth in the latest rankings. The Cardinal jumped 14 spots after beating the Ducks, and five more this week after whaling on the Trojans. Now eighth in the country, they beat FBS teams nearly 89 percent of the time.

Stanford is averaging 53 points per game over its last two outings. It piled up 469 total yards against USC, including 325 on the ground. The Cardinal racked up more than 500 yards against the Ducks, including 254 on the ground.

The offensive onslaught helped Stanford propel up the rankings and it now ranks sixth in scoring against FBS teams, outscoring opponents 46-17.

Biggest Gains

Just because the Big East race will be settled at the top by Cincinnati and Pittsburgh doesn't mean Rutgers is about to roll over from here on out.

The Scarlet Knights won their third game in a row last week, crushing South Florida 31-0. The shutout moves Rutgers up 17 spots in this week's rankings to 17th, as they now beat nearly 80 percent of all other FBS teams.

Florida Atlantic officially enjoys the biggest leap. The Owls avoided a three-game losing streak by beating Arkansas State and moving up 19 places this week to No. 80.

In other notable jumps, Wisconsin not only put Michigan's bowl hopes at risk, the Badgers moved up 10 more spots. And while going unnoticed around the country, the Badgers are now up to 14th in the latest rankings, ahead of Penn State and Iowa.

Ole Miss moves up 14 spots after stomping Tennessee, Oregon State leaps 13 spots back into the top 25, and Hawaii gains 15 spots to move back into the upper half of the FBS at No. 58.

Biggest Losses

South Florida's freefall continues. The Bulls were ranked as high as 11th earlier this season, but after an undefeated run to start the year, plummeted 36 spots in the last month.

Their latest loss, a shutout by Rutgers, drops them 22 spots, more than any other team this week. South Florida, now 47th in the country, beats FBC opponents just 58.9 percent of the time.

Winning doesn't always mean improvement in these rankings. Just ask BYU . The Cougars won their second straight game since losing to TCU at home, but drop 13 spots in the rankings this week after topping win-less New Mexico by less than a touchdown.

In other notable losses, 19 seems to be the magic number as Kansas State , Wake Forest, and Colorado all fall 19 spots. And Arizona and USC , each losers in Pac-10 play, each drop 12 spots to 21st and 22nd, respectively.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Florida Gators	-	98.7	50.7	7.8
2.	TCU Horned Frogs	-	97.2	51.5	9.2
3.	Texas Longhorns	-	96.5	43.9	7.0
4.	Alabama Crimson Tide	+1	95.4	44.2	8.2
5.	Cincinnati Bearcats	-1	94.2	49.0	14.3
6.	Boise State Broncos	-	93.0	45.9	13.2
7.	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	-	92.4	51.5	19.2
8.	Stanford Cardinal	+5	88.7	45.7	17.4
9.	Pittsburgh Panthers	-1	88.0	41.7	15.3
10.	Ohio State Buckeyes	+1	87.5	34.7	12.3
11.	Oregon Ducks	+4	85.2	36.6	14.5
12.	Virginia Tech Hokies	+11	82.5	34.8	16.0
13.	Oregon State Beavers	+13	82.1	34.9	16.0
14.	Wisconsin Badgers	+10	81.5	36.5	16.0
15.	Oklahoma State Cowboys	+1	81.2	35.8	16.0
16.	Utah Utes	-4	79.7	35.1	16.7
17.	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	+17	79.6	32.4	15.3
18.	LSU Tigers	-1	77.8	28.0	13.7
19.	Clemson Tigers	-	77.4	31.2	14.4
20.	Iowa Hawkeyes	-	77.2	28.0	13.6
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
21.	Arizona Wildcats	-12	76.7	33.3	17.1
22.	USC Trojans	-12	76.7	34.2	19.0
23.	Penn State Nittany Lions	-2	76.2	30.8	16.1
24.	Mississippi Rebels	+14	75.7	33.4	18.1
25.	West Virginia Mountaineers	+5	75.2	33.7	18.1
26.	Nebraska Cornhuskers	+3	74.9	27.7	14.5
27.	Brigham Young Cougars	-13	74.6	33.9	19.7
28.	Houston Cougars	-10	74.2	36.9	23.6
29.	Texas Tech Red Raiders	-2	72.5	28.5	17.4
30.	Air Force Falcons	+10	72.4	29.7	16.3
31.	California Golden Bears	+10	72.1	31.0	19.0
32.	Georgia Bulldogs	+10	70.0	29.8	19.9
33.	Nevada Wolf Pack	+6	69.6	34.5	22.4
34.	Oklahoma Sooners	+1	69.4	26.7	16.0
35.	Arkansas Razorbacks	-3	68.9	35.6	24.4
36.	Auburn Tigers	-3	66.8	31.1	21.5
37.	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	-15	66.0	28.6	19.2
38.	Missouri Tigers	+9	65.8	26.5	18.8
39.	Connecticut Huskies	+5	63.8	28.0	20.5
40.	South Carolina Gamecocks	+13	63.0	24.7	17.9
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
41.	Michigan State Spartans	+4	63.0	27.5	20.6
42.	Temple Owls	+12	62.9	25.9	17.8
43.	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-7	62.8	31.1	23.7
44.	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	+4	61.9	27.3	21.4
45.	Fresno State Bulldogs	-17	60.9	35.4	28.2
46.	Tennessee Volunteers	-15	59.9	24.7	19.2
47.	South Florida Bulls	-22	58.9	26.9	22.8
48.	North Carolina Tar Heels	+12	58.2	18.9	15.6
49.	Northern Illinois Huskies	+7	58.2	26.1	21.6
50.	Florida State Seminoles	+2	57.9	32.3	28.0
51.	Boston College Eagles	-1	56.5	21.6	18.5
52.	Idaho Vandals	-3	55.7	30.2	27.1
53.	Troy Trojans	-7	54.8	27.5	25.1
54.	Utah State Aggies	+13	54.7	27.2	25.0
55.	Central Michigan Chippewas	-	53.7	24.8	22.5
56.	Kansas State Wildcats	-19	53.1	23.7	22.0
57.	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	+4	51.9	23.0	22.7
58.	Hawaii Warriors	+15	51.3	27.4	27.0
59.	Purdue Boilermakers	-	51.1	22.6	22.1
60.	UAB Blazers	+9	51.1	28.1	26.6
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
61.	Navy Midshipmen	-3	50.6	23.4	23.1
62.	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	-19	49.3	23.0	23.8
63.	North Carolina State Wolfpack	-1	47.8	21.8	23.8
64.	Texas A&M Aggies	-13	45.6	23.1	25.0
65.	Southern Methodist Mustangs	+11	44.5	20.7	24.9
66.	Illinois Fighting Illini	+2	43.9	22.3	26.1
67.	Baylor Bears	-3	43.1	18.8	23.9
68.	Northwestern Wildcats	+4	42.9	18.6	23.1
69.	Michigan Wolverines	+2	42.9	21.8	26.2
70.	East Carolina Pirates	-	42.8	18.8	22.6
71.	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	-8	42.5	24.2	28.9
72.	Kentucky Wildcats	+5	42.2	19.4	24.1
73.	Arizona State Sun Devils	-16	41.8	16.8	20.7
74.	Mississippi State Bulldogs	-9	41.2	20.1	25.2
75.	Indiana Hoosiers	-	40.6	18.4	24.8
76.	Ohio Bobcats	+2	40.5	16.4	23.1
77.	Buffalo Bulls	+9	39.9	19.9	26.4
78.	Kansas Jayhawks	-12	39.4	19.4	26.2
79.	UCF Knights	+8	39.4	16.1	21.8
80.	Florida Atlantic Owls	+19	35.1	21.5	30.9
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
81.	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	-1	35.0	17.0	26.2
82.	UCLA Bruins	-	34.4	15.6	25.8
83.	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-9	34.3	16.0	24.9
84.	Syracuse Orange	+11	34.1	14.8	24.5
85.	Toledo Rockets	-6	32.8	19.3	28.8
86.	Kent State Golden Flashes	+2	32.3	13.8	23.4
87.	Wyoming Cowboys	+11	32.2	14.4	24.5
88.	Washington Huskies	-5	31.8	18.0	28.5
89.	UTEP Miners	+2	31.0	20.0	32.3
90.	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	+3	30.2	16.5	27.3
91.	Iowa State Cyclones	-6	29.7	17.4	29.2
92.	Arkansas State Red Wolves	-11	29.2	15.5	27.4
93.	Louisville Cardinals	-3	28.8	14.9	27.3
94.	Marshall Thundering Herd	-2	28.6	14.9	27.1
95.	Duke Blue Devils	-6	25.5	13.5	27.3
96.	Western Michigan Broncos	+1	24.7	14.3	30.4
97.	Vanderbilt Commodores	+7	23.2	11.9	29.9
98.	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	-4	22.6	12.9	29.8
99.	Army Black Knights	+4	22.0	11.9	29.2
100.	Colorado State Rams	+5	22.0	11.3	27.7
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
101.	North Texas Mean Green	+6	21.3	15.5	33.0
102.	Ball State Cardinals	-2	20.7	13.0	31.1
103.	Colorado Buffaloes	-19	19.0	9.2	27.2
104.	UNLV Rebels	-3	18.9	15.2	35.5
105.	Memphis Tigers	+1	18.5	12.9	31.9
106.	Bowling Green Falcons	+3	18.3	10.9	31.3
107.	San Diego State Aztecs	+1	17.4	10.4	30.1
108.	Virginia Cavaliers	-12	17.1	7.5	25.7
109.	Maryland Terrapins	-7	16.7	10.0	29.5
110.	Tulane Green Wave	+1	15.5	12.3	33.3
111.	Miami (OH) RedHawks	+1	11.5	8.0	34.1
112.	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	+1	10.8	10.6	40.4
113.	Akron Zips	-3	9.3	8.2	36.2
114.	Florida International Golden Panthers	+5	7.8	7.4	37.5
115.	Rice Owls	+3	7.5	8.1	36.8
116.	New Mexico Lobos	-2	7.3	6.1	34.8
117.	New Mexico State Aggies	-1	6.3	6.8	38.3
118.	San Jose State Spartans	-1	5.9	8.3	40.1
119.	Washington State Cougars	-4	4.9	7.3	39.5
120.	Eastern Michigan Eagles	-	4.9	6.6	41.4

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that.

From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling —it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 12 College Football Picks from WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:59:24 -0500

The Southeastern Conference championship game is set, but there is still some meaningful football to be played in the conference. The rest of the SEC race is anybody's guess.

The West Division picture should get a little clearer this weekend as two top 25 teams in our most recent power rankings—Ole Miss and LSU—meet in a battle of teams that were considered contenders to fight for spots in that title game at the start of the year.

The Tigers rebounded from a loss to Alabama on Saturday, but certainly didn't look dominating against Louisiana Tech. They've lost two of their last five games, with both of those losses coming against unbeaten teams (Florida and Alabama), but have suffered at different times during the season from unexpectedly close victories.

LSU relies on a balanced offense and has scored 14 touchdowns through the air and 14 on the ground. The Tigers' rushing attack hasn't opened any eyes as they average less than four yards per carry. They'll again be without starter Charles Scott, who broke his collarbone, but Keiland Williams filled in well against Louisiana Tech and is averaging more than five yards per carry this season.

The Tigers' passing offense has been even more mediocre. They rank outside the top 100 in passing yards per game and average less than seven yards per attempt.

LSU hasn't said yet whether quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who also missed Saturday’s game but did practice some last week, will return.

The Tigers have made it to 8-2 on the strength of their defense. On the ground, they give up just 3.39 yards per carry. Through the air, they allow just 5.78 yards per attempt and have picked off more passes (12) than they've allowed to find the end zone (10). LSU ranks 13th in the country, allowing less than 4.5 yards per play.

After making an abundance of noise to start the season, Mississippi fell out of the national picture with a loss to South Carolina and a drubbing by Alabama. They haven't put together three consecutive victories yet this season, though they will get another chance to do so against LSU.

Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead was once considered a potential Heisman candidate, but those hopes have fallen by the wayside as fast as the Rebels fell out of SEC contention. The Rebels average 7.27 yards per pass attempt, but Snead has thrown 14 interceptions on the year and completes just over 52 percent of his passes.

But it's the Rebels offense that has exploded onto the scene. Dexter McCluster ran roughshod over Tennessee on Saturday, running for 283 yards—more than 11 per carry—and four touchdowns in a blowout victory over the Vols.

On the season, Ole Miss is averaging almost five yards per rush as attention shifts from Snead and the pass attack to McCluster and the ground game.

The Rebels aren't far behind the Tigers in terms of rushing defense, allowing less than 3.8 yards per carry. Both teams have been especially stout against the run at the goal line. LSU has allowed an amazingly low three rushing touchdowns while opponents have found the end zone on the ground against Ole Miss just eight times.

The Rebels are equally good against the pass, allowing just seven passing touchdowns and just 5.76 yards per passing attempt.

LSU and Mississippi could get together for one of the best defensive slugfests of the season. Either way, the game should stay close with two teams that are giving up less than 16 points per game, each ranking in the top 12 in the nation in scoring defense.

Our computers expect at least one team to eclipse 20 points and it's the home team pulling off a minor upset. In 10,0000 computer simulations, McCluster and the Rebels finally put together an official winning streak with a 23-17 victory over the Tigers.

Ole Miss ties LSU in the SEC West by winning 63.7 percent of the time.

Other Notable Games in Week 12

With the season winding down, many of the top conference races are all but over at the top (see Ohio State, the SEC title game and Texas just waiting to pounce on whoever comes out of the Big 12 North).

The Pac-10 belonged in that category about this time every year as well...until now.

USC's back-to-back blowouts have the conference race fairly wide open heading into the final few weeks. Now, Oregon remains in the Pac-10 driver's seat, and stays there 65.2 percent of the time this week, edging Arizona 27-23.

Just about every other game this week has implications as well. Stanford continues its hot run 70.6 percent of the time against Cal, winning 38-28. And Oregon State remains in the hunt 95 percent of the time at Washington State.

The Big East remains exciting as well, though not so much this week. Both 10-0 Cincinnati and 9-1 Pittsburgh have this week off and then will play one more game before meeting up in what could be a monumental season finale.

While the Bearcats officially have a zero percent chance of losing their first game of the season this week, the five other unbeatens' chances of losing are (unofficially) nearly as low.

Every one of them has a 95 percent (or better) chance of remaining undefeated this weekend as Florida takes on Florida International, Alabama gets Chattanooga, Texas hosts Kansas and TCU and Boise State each go on the road, facing Wyoming and Utah State, respectively.

While last week there was about a 50 percent chance that one of the teams would get upset, this week there is only about a 20 percent chance that will happen.

Temple, one of the hottest teams in the nation given its eight-game winning streak, moves that to a nine-game stretch 81.1 percent of the time against Kent State.

Seriously, we are talking about Temple.

That probably says more about the week than the team, but congrats to Al Golden and the Owls on their winning streak.

And finally, our computer can't predict the percentage chance that Charlie Weis keeps his job at Notre Dame, but it can predict whether he can boost his chances by winning against Connecticut as the Golden Domers get ready for another close game.

Notre Dame edges UConn 31-27, winning 54.7 percent of the time.

To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

College Football Week 12
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
North Carolina State Wolfpack	5.5	13
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	94.5	38
Maryland Terrapins	9.5	18
@ Florida State Seminoles	90.5	35
Virginia Cavaliers	12.4	8
@ Clemson Tigers	87.6	28
Duke Blue Devils	15.4	18
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	84.6	32
North Carolina Tar Heels	55.2	18
@ Boston College Eagles	44.8	17
Louisville Cardinals	11.4	14
@ South Florida Bulls	88.6	30
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	91.5	29
@ Syracuse Orange	8.5	14
Minnesota Golden Gophers	9.0	8
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	91.0	24
Purdue Boilermakers	59.2	21
@ Indiana Hoosiers	40.8	18
Penn State Nittany Lions	76.1	27
@ Michigan State Spartans	23.9	20
Ohio State Buckeyes	80.6	27
@ Michigan Wolverines	19.4	16
Wisconsin Badgers	80.6	27
@ Northwestern Wildcats	19.4	17
Kent State Golden Flashes	18.9	12
@ Temple Owls	81.1	26
Eastern Michigan Eagles	19.4	15
@ Toledo Rockets	80.6	31
Akron Zips	38.3	14
@ Bowling Green Falcons	61.7	19
Northern Illinois Huskies	80.6	27
@ Ohio Bobcats	19.4	18
Buffalo Bulls	85.1	27
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	14.9	14
Central Michigan Chippewas	89.6	31
@ Ball State Cardinals	10.4	14
California Golden Bears	29.4	28
@ Stanford Cardinal	70.6	38
Arizona State Sun Devils	47.8	19
@ UCLA Bruins	52.2	22
Oregon Ducks	65.2	27
@ Arizona Wildcats	34.8	23
Oregon State Beavers	95.0	39
@ Washington State Cougars	5.0	10
Florida International Golden Panthers	5.0	5
@ Florida Gators	95.0	57
Chattanooga Mocs	5.0	4
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	95.0	54
Vanderbilt Commodores	13.9	11
@ Tennessee Volunteers	86.1	30
Kentucky Wildcats	17.4	13
@ Georgia Bulldogs	82.6	27
Mississippi State Bulldogs	23.9	22
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	76.1	34
LSU Tigers	36.3	17
@ Mississippi Rebels	63.7	23
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	20.4	24
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	79.6	37
Hawaii Warriors	91.0	37
@ San Jose State Spartans	9.0	19
Nevada Wolf Pack	95.0	48
@ New Mexico State Aggies	5.0	11
Boise State Broncos	95.0	46
@ Utah State Aggies	5.0	17
Connecticut Huskies	45.3	27
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	54.7	31
Kansas Jayhawks	5.0	8
@ Texas Longhorns	95.0	43
Colorado Buffaloes	5.0	12
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	95.0	37
Iowa State Cyclones	14.9	12
@ Missouri Tigers	85.1	26
Kansas State Wildcats	24.4	13
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	75.6	24
Baylor Bears	35.8	18
@ Texas A&M Aggies	64.2	24
Oklahoma Sooners	76.1	28
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	23.9	21
Memphis Tigers	7.5	23
@ Houston Cougars	92.5	45
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	23.4	22
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	76.6	33
Tulane Green Wave	27.4	15
@ UCF Knights	72.6	25
UAB Blazers	58.2	25
@ East Carolina Pirates	41.8	24
Southern Methodist Mustangs	66.7	21
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	33.3	17
UTEP Miners	86.1	31
@ Rice Owls	13.9	15
San Diego State Aztecs	5.0	11
@ Utah Utes	95.0	35
Air Force Falcons	42.3	24
@ Brigham Young Cougars	57.7	29
Colorado State Rams	78.1	22
@ New Mexico Lobos	21.9	13
TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	42
@ Wyoming Cowboys	5.0	7
Florida Atlantic Owls	21.4	22
@ Troy Trojans	78.6	35
Army Black Knights	29.4	16
@ North Texas Mean Green	70.6	24
Arkansas State Red Wolves	46.3	17
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	53.7	21
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	85.1	26
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	14.9	14

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Top NFL Rookies From WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:02:37 -0500

At the halfway point of the season there are still so many questions to be answered. Which teams will win certain divisions? Can anyone stop Peyton Manning? You can see our Week 10 picks for that answer. But one question we can answer has to do with rookies.

Back in April, we at WhatIfSports.com unveiled our top 100 impact rookies article which you can revisit here. This list was created with the help of our NFL simulation engine and other statistical analysis used for our preseason and weekly projections.

Now we have created a list of the top 50 rookies based on actual numbers for each player through Week 9, but ranked using the same grading system as our original article.

Unfortunately though, due to lack of the appropriate data at this point, offensive lineman cannot be fairly judged.

Here are some interesting notes regarding comparisons between our new top 50 list and original top 100.

Despite the fact that many analysts say wide receiver requires a very difficult transition from college to the NFL, 13 WRs made our new top 50, the most of any position. Eight are in the top 20, yet only Percy Harvin made the cut into top 10.
We ranked four QBs in our original top 100. With Josh Freeman's most recent start, three QBs are now in our top 50 and the fourth, Pat White, has been used sparingly in wildcat and spread formations.
Top 50 sorted by draft round: Eighteen first rounders, 10 second rounders, seven third rounders, six fourth rounders, two fifth rounders, one sixth rounder, four seventh rounders and two undrafted.
Of our original top 100 - five have been placed on season ending injured reserve (Bradley Fletcher, William Moore, Andre Brown, Stanley Armoux and Cornelius Ingram) and three have been cut (Stryker Sulak, Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith).
Our new top 50 does not include offensive linemen (nine were included in original top 50, 18 overall in the top 100).
Eighteen players in the top 50 were not ranked in our preseason top 100 (Mike Thomas, Sean Smith, Brian Hartline, Bradley Fletcher, Captain Munnerlyn, Pat McAfee, Bruce Johnson, Al Afalava, Glen Coffee, Roy Miller, Glover Quin, Sammie Stroughter, Jerraud Powers, Jacob Lacey, Johnny Knox, Mike Wallace, Mohamed Massaquoi and Derek Cox).
Including only players ranked in both lists: Louis Murphy has made the biggest jump from 82 to 17. Michael Crabtree has made the biggest fall from one to 44.
Derek Cox (9) is the highest ranked current rookie who was not originally ranked.
Of our new top 50, the Cowboys, Saints, Ravens, and Falcons do not have any rookies listed. Dallas drafted 12 players, but now, after cuts and placing guys on IR, have six active. The Falcons top two picks are on IR and the Ravens drafted an OL in the first round, so he does not qualify for the current list.
Teams that have the most rookies on the new list: Colts (5), Lions (4), Patriots (3), Eagles (3), Tampa Bay (3), Miami (3).

Dishonorable Mentions (notable players ranked in our top 100 who are no longer ranked):

21. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland Raiders

Darrius Heyward-Bey is part of the reason people believe WRs have such a tough transition from college to the NFL. Maybe it's the transition or maybe he is just not talented enough. Michael Crabtree has eclipsed Heyward-Bey in catches (14 to 5) just three games while DHB has played eight.

32. Tyson Jackson, DE, Kansas City Chiefs

The No. 3 overall pick has made about as much of an impact as current Chiefs and former LSU teammate Glenn Dorsey—who was the fifth overall pick a year ago. That impact is minimal.

Jackson ranks 36th among rookies with 10 solo tackles. He had only three through the first seven games—which was good enough to be tied with 49ers RB Glen Coffee for 65th among rookies—until a breakthrough performance in Week 9 in which he led the team with seven tackles. A few more games like this for Jackson will get him closer to our initial projections.

14. BJ Raji, DT, Green Bay Packers

Our initial projections did not really account for a Raji holdout or arriving at camp out of shape. The holdout and physical issues have slowed his progression and affected his playing time. Recently, Raji has gotten on the field and is finally starting to make a bit of an impact. It may take some time (a lot) for him to reach our initial rank of 14, but Raji is probably a few weeks away from cracking the top 50.

Honorable Mentions

44. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers

The Texas Tech product held out for 71 days and has played in just three games, but just based on his stats thus far, Crabtree still ranks in our top 50. Crabtree was our No. 1 impact rookie in our original projections and will not likely be No. 1 this year, but he has a chance to have a very fine season if he can, consistently, get the ball and shake defenders as he did so well in college.

41. Pat McAfee, P, Indianapolis Colts/ #39. Kevin Huber, P, Cincinnati Bengals

Punters can have impacts too—not just skill positions. Huber was the first punter drafted in April and remains in our top 50 while McAfee has impressed and is a new addition to the rankings. Both have reached 60 yard punts at some point this year. Huber has averaged 43.7 yards, and 13 down inside the 20. He is a significant contributor to the Bengals surprising success. McAfee has averaged 43.7 yards per punt.

33. Ryan Succop, K, Kansas City Chiefs

Mr. Irrelevant continues to remain relevant. Succop has been perfect on extra points so far, hit a 53-yard FG and missed just three FGs (78.6 percent to be accurate).

38. Bruce Johnson, CB, New York Giants/25. Jacob Lacey, CB, Indianapolis Colts

Both Johnson and Lacey were not drafted in April and now find themselves big time players on playoff contenders.

These two are meshed together because they are the only two guys who crack our top 50 who were not drafted and they have similar stats. Both have deflected six balls and returned an interception for a touchdown.

Both made the team and the lineup the same way too—injuries. Not saying they would not have ultimately earned their stripes, but injuries for the Giants and Colts secondaries played a big role in speeding up the development of Johnson and Lacey.

Here are 50-11 from the updated list:

50. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
49. Larry English, LB, San Diego Chargers
48. Macho Harris, FS, Philadelphia Eagles
47. Mike Thomas, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
46. Sean Smith, CB, Miami Dolphins
45. Brian Hartline, WR, Miami Dolphins
44. Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
43. Bradley Fletcher, CB, St. Louis Rams
42. Captain Munnerlyn, CB, Carolina Panthers
41. Pat McAfee, P, Indianapolis Colts
40. Rey Maualuga, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
39. Kevin Huber, PT, Cincinnati Bengals
38. Bruce Johnson, CB, New York Giants
37. Darius Butler, CB, New England Patriots
36. Sherrod Martin, CB, Carolina Panthers
35. Pat Chung, S, New England Patriots
34. Al Afalava, S, Chicago Bears
33. Ryan Succop, PK, Kansas City Chiefs
32. Glen Coffee, RB, San Francisco 49ers
31. Roy Miller, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts
29. Glover Quin, CB, Houston Texans
28. Sammie Stroughter, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts
26. Clay Matthews, LB, Green Bay Packers
25. Jacob Lacey, CB, Indianapolis Colts
24. Vontae Davis, CB, Miami Dolphins
23. Chris Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals
22. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit Lions
21. Jerraud Powers, CB, Indianapolis Colts
20. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
19. Johnny Knox, WR, Chicago Bears
18. Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
17. Louis Murphy, WR, Oakland Raiders
16. Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
15. Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
14. DeAndre Levy, LB, Detroit Lions
13. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cleveland Browns
12. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos
11. Brian Orakpo, DE, Washington Redskins

And now for the top 10:

10. LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

With Brian Westbrook banged up to start the season, McCoy has been asked to do a lot more early on than anyone probably expected. McCoy has 348 yards and two TDs on the ground—the second most yards among rookies. In last week's game, he had 18 touches for 115 yards.

Projected Final Stats: 768 total yards, 5 TDs

9. Derek Cox, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Cox has seemingly come out of nowhere and wasn't even ranked in our top 100 originally. He has two INTs and eight passes deflected - not bad for a third round pick out of William & Mary. Cox is also fourth on his team with 40 combined tackles.

Projected Final Stats: 72 total tackles, 4 INTs

8. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Stafford was the No.1 overall pick in April and, despite putting up Harrington-esque numbers, has still performed admirably. Recent rookie QBs don't make Stafford look like a great success, but guys like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and even Mark Sanchez have inherited good teams. Stafford inherits arguably the NFL's worst team of all time.

Stafford ranked second behind Crabtree and just above Sanchez in April. The rookie QB does not have a lot to work with and has missed one game due to injury, as has his number one weapon, Calvin Johnson.

The running game has also been non-existent all year as well. However, Stafford has led the Lions to one win—one more than last year—so he definitely deserves a spot in the top 10.

Projected Final Stats: 2,760 yards, 13 TDs, 22 INTs

7. Aaron Curry, LB, Seattle Seahawks

Curry has been a monster and a huge weapon for a Seahawks defense that has been banged up all year. He already has two sacks and two forced fumbles. Playing along side Lofa Tatupa helped for a while, but now with Tatupa out and Seattle struggling, Curry will have even more pressure on him the second half of the year.

Projected Final Stats: 86 total tackles, 4 sacks

6. Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Harvin is someone we couldn't quite figure out when we first did our projections. Despite being ranked fourth, Harvin was a WR and RB in our simulations and we also expected him to get some wildcat snaps. Well this was before the Vikings settled on a good quarterback.

That quarterback hasn't struggled like we did to find ways to best utilize Harvin who has become a top third-down target and is an excellent kick returner with his electrifying breakaway speed.

Projected Final Stats: 806 yards from scrimmage, 9 TDs

5. Louis Delmas, S, Detroit Lions

We had Delmas in our top 10 (No. 10) the first time around and now he is even higher. Not bad for the 33rd overall pick—the only one in our original top 10 not drafted in first round. Delmas has 1 sack and a fumble recovery for a TD along with third most tackles among rookies (37 solo).

Projected Final Stats: 87 total tackles, 3 INTs, 2 sacks

4. Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets

We have seen the best of Mark Sanchez; we have seen the worst of Mark Sanchez. Now its time to see a consistent Mark Sanchez. Sanchez has thrown 8 TD and 10 INT. The addition of Braylon Edwards and having a bye week this past week should give Sanchez a great opportunity to improve in the second half of the year.

Not having the ability to check down to Leon Washington (out for the year) will hurt, but Sanchez is well equipped with all the physical and mental tools to be an NFL QB. No matter what he does on the field, it's better than watching Sanchez eat hot dogs on the sidelines or pose like the "Hoff" in GQ magazine.

Projected Final Stats: 2,864 yards, 17 TDs, 18 INTs

3. James Laurinaitis, MLB, St. Louis Rams

Despite not yet getting his first sack, Laurinaitis has been one of the few bright spots on one of the NFL's worst teams. The former Buckeye with plenty of big game experience will be looked upon as a leader for year's to come in Steve Spagnuolo's defense. For now, Laurinaitis ranks in the top 30 in the NFL in tackles and second among rookies.

Projected Final Stats: 105 total tackles, 4 INTs, 1 sack

2. Jairus Byrd, FS, Buffalo Bills

Byrd was ranked No. 35 originally and wasn't expected to play much, but with an injury riddled secondary, Byrd has taken advantage of playing time to pick off seven passes and deflect another nine. The seven INTs are enough to have Byrd tied for the league lead with Darren Sharper.

Projected Final Stats: 40 total tackles, 10 INTs

1. Brian Cushing, OLB, Houston Texans

Cushing was the first USC linebacker off the board (with Clay Matthews, Rey Mauluga and Kaluka Maiava to follow). Cushing has certainly lived up to his draft position and has helped a resurgent Texans defense.

Cushing leads all rookies with 78 combined tackles and trails only Curtis Lofton among the entire NFL in tackles. Cushing has 22 more tackles than the next rookie. He has also recorded 1.5 sacks, two INT, a safety, eight passes deflected and two forced fumbles.

Projected Final Stats: 118 total tackles, 3 INTs, 4 sacks

Michael Schneid is the Marketing Director for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Mike can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:57:12 -0500

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic, and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams.

We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.

Most Notable Move

There was a point where the Tennessee Titans ranked amongst the worst three teams in the entire league. But after two consecutive victories with Vince Young at the helm, they're back in the top half of the league in the latest power rankings.

Tennessee dropped to No. 30 in the rankings after a 59-0 drubbing at the hands of New England dropped the Titans to an 0-6 mark. After losing three games by 13 total points to start the season, the Titans fell in their next three by 101.

After a bye week, coach Jeff Fisher and the Titans turned back to Young, their one-time starting quarterback who fell out of favor last season and suffered through issues both on and off the field. The former college star doesn't have any jaw-dropping numbers since his return, completing 27 of 37 passes for 297 yards and one touchdown, but the record of 2-0 speaks for itself.

Young has received plenty of help from running back Chris Johnson in the two-game stretch. Johnson has 49 carries for 363 yards and four touchdowns in victories over Jacksonville and San Francisco.

The latter helps them jump eight more spots this week up to No. 15 in the NFL. The Titans, just three weeks after being considered the third-worst team in football, now win 53.4 percent of their games when squaring off 100 times against every other NFL team.

They could move up more before they move down. The Titans host the hapless Buffalo Bills this season before what could be a good matchup with Houston, allowing Tennessee the chance to prove that it at least belongs in the middle of the pack.

Biggest Gains

The Titans officially make the biggest leap in this week's rankings, but the Arizona Cardinals were a close second, jumping to the head of the NFC West race and back into the top 12 with a victory over the Chicago Bears, as Kurt Warner threw five touchdown passes.

Arizona goes from a middle-of-the-run team back to the playoff picture, jumping seven spots to No. 11.

San Diego , which got a victory on the road against the New York Giants, jumps five spots and is back in the top 10.

Biggest Losses

The Green Bay Packers added insult to insult. One week after losing to former star quarterback Brett Favre, Green Bay faltered against then-winless Tampa Bay, falling to the Creamsicle-colored crew and dropping behind Minnesota by three games midway through the season.

The Packers drop nine spots and out of the top half of the league to No. 19 overall. They are now beating less than 50 percent of all other NFL teams.

San Francisco and Chicago , each reeling in their own way, drop five more spots.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (Everyone Plays Everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	-	81.3	30.8	18.5
2.	Indianapolis Colts	-	79.2	28.7	18.3
3.	Pittsburgh Steelers	-	78.2	29.1	18.1
4.	New England Patriots	+2	73.5	27.0	17.2
5.	Minnesota Vikings	-1	71.2	26.0	18.2
6.	Dallas Cowboys	-1	69.0	27.0	19.5
7.	Cincinnati Bengals	+2	67.7	23.7	17.5
8.	Philadelphia Eagles	-	61.8	24.7	20.9
9.	San Diego Chargers	+5	57.9	23.6	20.8
10.	Denver Broncos	-3	57.1	20.3	18.3
11.	Arizona Cardinals	+7	55.2	22.8	21.6
12.	Baltimore Ravens	-	54.7	22.2	20.7
13.	Atlanta Falcons	+3	54.1	22.3	20.8
14.	Houston Texans	+3	53.9	22.8	21.1
15.	Tennessee Titans	+8	53.4	22.9	20.9
16.	San Francisco 49ers	-5	52.2	22.3	21.3
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	New York Jets	-4	52.1	22.2	22.2
18.	Miami Dolphins	-3	51.2	22.3	21.7
19.	Green Bay Packers	-9	49.0	23.4	24.3
20.	Carolina Panthers	-1	48.6	23.0	23.1
21.	New York Giants	-	48.0	23.4	24.1
22.	Jacksonville Jaguars	-	46.3	23.7	25.1
23.	Buffalo Bills	+3	39.7	19.5	23.5
24.	Seattle Seahawks	-	39.2	20.5	24.2
25.	Chicago Bears	-5	34.4	19.5	24.7
26.	St. Louis Rams	-1	31.6	19.2	25.8
27.	Oakland Raiders	-	28.2	16.6	24.5
28.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+4	26.6	18.9	27.6
29.	Kansas City Chiefs	-1	24.5	17.8	28.4
30.	Detroit Lions	+1	22.6	17.6	28.7
31.	Washington Redskins	-1	20.0	17.2	28.5
32.	Cleveland Browns	-3	17.7	13.3	29.0

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

NFL Week 10 Fantasy Football Projections

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:06:56 -0500

This thorough analysis and statistical evaluation of every player and team in the NFL is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com's Fantasy Football . Each regular season game is simulated 10,001 times. This allows us to account for every player and statistical interaction in an NFL game. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday each week. Information on scoring appears at the bottom of this article.

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Rams	25.2
2.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Browns	21.7
3.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	Lions	21.5
4.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	Bills	20.3
5.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	Patriots	19.4
6.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	Colts	19.4
7.	Michael Turner	RB	Falcons	Panthers	18.9
8.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Cowboys	18.8
9.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Bears	18.6
10.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Browns	18.5
11.	Brett Favre	QB	Vikings	Lions	18.4
12.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Eagles	18.2
13.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	Jets	18.2
14.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	Bengals	18.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Chargers	18.0
16.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Seahawks	17.8
17.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	Cardinals	17.4
18.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Packers	16.9
19.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	49ers	16.6
20.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Rams	16.5
21.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	Saints	16.1
22.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Chargers	15.9
23.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	Raiders	15.9
24.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	Patriots	15.8
25.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Seahawks	15.6
26.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	Jaguars	15.4
27.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Packers	15.3
28.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	Jaguars	15.0
29.	Josh Freeman	QB	Buccaneers	Dolphins	14.9
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	Steelers	14.7
31.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Falcons	14.6
32.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Panthers	14.6
33.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Redskins	14.5
34.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Buccaneers	14.4
35.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	Bears	14.2
36.	Ronnie Brown	RB	Dolphins	Buccaneers	13.8
37.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	Jets	13.4
38.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	Bengals	13.4
39.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Cowboys	13.4
40.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Rams	13.3
41.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	Colts	13.3
42.	JaMarcus Russell	QB	Raiders	Chiefs	13.1
43.	Trent Edwards	QB	Bills	Titans	13.0
44.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	49ers	12.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Buccaneers	12.3
46.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	Titans	12.2
47.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	Steelers	11.8
48.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Seahawks	11.7
49.	Vince Young	QB	Titans	Bills	11.7
50.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	Patriots	11.6
51.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	Broncos	11.5
52.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	Bengals	11.5
53.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Eagles	11.4
54.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	Lions	11.4
55.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Redskins	11.4
56.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	Redskins	11.3
57.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Rams	11.2
58.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	Colts	11.1
59.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	Cardinals	10.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	Colts	10.5
61.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Packers	10.5
62.	Matthew Stafford	QB	Lions	Vikings	10.4
63.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	Steelers	10.3
64.	Darren McFadden	RB	Raiders	Chiefs	10.3
65.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	Raiders	10.2
66.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Bears	10.2
67.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	Patriots	10.2
68.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Chargers	9.9
69.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Chargers	9.8
70.	Shonn Greene	RB	Jets	Jaguars	9.8
71.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	49ers	9.7
72.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Cowboys	9.7
73.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Cowboys	9.6
74.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Falcons	9.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	John Carney	K	Saints	Rams	9.5
76.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	Jaguars	9.2
77.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	Cardinals	9.2
78.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	Lions	9.2
79.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	Bills	9.2
80.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Buccaneers	9.0
81.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Eagles	9.0
82.	Marc Bulger	QB	Rams	Saints	8.9
83.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Panthers	8.9
84.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Falcons	8.9
85.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	Chiefs	8.9
86.	Carnell Williams	RB	Buccaneers	Dolphins	8.8
87.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	Ravens	8.8
88.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Eagles	8.8
89.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Redskins	8.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	Broncos	8.7
91.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Vikings	8.7
92.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Falcons	8.7
93.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Chargers	8.6
94.	Le'Ron McClain	RB	Ravens	Browns	8.6
95.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	Cardinals	8.6
96.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	Titans	8.5
97.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Rams	8.5
98.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Seahawks	8.5
99.	Derek Anderson	QB	Browns	Ravens	8.4
100.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	Patriots	8.4
101.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	Rams	8.4
102.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	Colts	8.3
103.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Panthers	8.3
104.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Packers	8.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Seahawks	8.1
106.	Ladell Betts	RB	Redskins	Broncos	8.1
107.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	Chiefs	8.1
108.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Bears	8.1
109.	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Chiefs	Raiders	8.1
110.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	Jets	8.0
111.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	Bengals	8.0
112.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Packers	8.0
113.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Cowboys	7.9
114.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	49ers	7.9
115.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	Jets	7.9
116.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Panthers	7.8
117.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	Dolphins	7.8
118.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	Buccaneers	7.8
119.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Falcons	7.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	Bengals	7.7
121.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Browns	7.7
122.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	Jaguars	7.6
123.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Packers	7.6
124.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Redskins	7.6
125.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	Colts	7.5
126.	Chris Chambers	WR	Chiefs	Raiders	7.5
127.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	Titans	7.5
128.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	Patriots	7.4
129.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	Raiders	7.4
130.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	Lions	7.4
131.	Vikings	DEF		Lions	7.3
132.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Eagles	7.2
133.	Kolby Smith	RB	Chiefs	Raiders	7.2
134.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	Steelers	7.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Lions	Vikings	7.1
136.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	Seahawks	7.1
137.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	Titans	7.0
138.	Steven Hauschka	K	Ravens	Browns	7.0
139.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	Dolphins	6.9
140.	Lance Long	WR	Chiefs	Raiders	6.9
141.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	Eagles	6.9
142.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	Bengals	6.8
143.	Roy Williams	WR	Cowboys	Packers	6.8
144.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Vikings	6.7
145.	Braylon Edwards	WR	Jets	Jaguars	6.7
146.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	Saints	6.7
147.	Chad Simpson	RB	Colts	Patriots	6.7
148.	49ers	DEF		Bears	6.6
149.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	Ravens	6.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Ravens	DEF		Browns	6.5
151.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	Seahawks	6.5
152.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	Eagles	6.5
153.	Justin Gage	WR	Titans	Bills	6.5
154.	Saints	DEF		Rams	6.5
155.	Cardinals	DEF		Seahawks	6.4
156.	Maurice Morris	RB	Lions	Vikings	6.4
157.	Rashad Jennings	RB	Jaguars	Jets	6.3
158.	Calvin Johnson	WR	Lions	Vikings	6.2
159.	Todd Heap	TE	Ravens	Browns	6.2
160.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	49ers	6.2
161.	John Carlson	TE	Seahawks	Cardinals	6.2
162.	Broncos	DEF		Redskins	6.2
163.	Leonard Weaver	RB	Eagles	Chargers	6.1
164.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	Jaguars	6.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Dolphins	DEF		Buccaneers	6.1
166.	Eagles	DEF		Chargers	6.1
167.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	Saints	6.0
168.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	Jets	6.0
169.	Dantrell Savage	RB	Chiefs	Raiders	6.0
170.	Chargers	DEF		Eagles	5.9
171.	Titans	DEF		Bills	5.9
172.	Bengals	DEF		Steelers	5.9
173.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Chargers	5.8
174.	Steelers	DEF		Bengals	5.8
175.	Connor Barth	K	Buccaneers	Dolphins	5.8
176.	Cowboys	DEF		Packers	5.8
177.	Justin Forsett	RB	Seahawks	Cardinals	5.6
178.	Greg Camarillo	WR	Dolphins	Buccaneers	5.6
179.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	Cardinals	5.6
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Browns	5.5
181.	Louis Murphy	WR	Raiders	Chiefs	5.5
182.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Panthers	5.5
183.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	Broncos	5.4
184.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Rams	5.4
185.	Falcons	DEF		Panthers	5.3
186.	LenDale White	RB	Titans	Bills	5.3
187.	Chester Taylor	RB	Vikings	Lions	5.3
188.	Browns	DEF		Ravens	5.3
189.	Seahawks	DEF		Cardinals	5.3
190.	David Clowney	WR	Jets	Jaguars	5.2
191.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	Chiefs	5.2
192.	Mike Wallace	WR	Steelers	Bengals	5.2
193.	Jerome Harrison	RB	Browns	Ravens	5.2
194.	Antonio Bryant	WR	Buccaneers	Dolphins	5.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Sammie Stroughter	WR	Buccaneers	Dolphins	5.1
196.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	Chiefs	5.1
197.	Bears	DEF		49ers	5.1
198.	Benjamin Watson	TE	Patriots	Colts	5.1
199.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	Redskins	5.0
200.	Phil Dawson	K	Browns	Ravens	4.9

* The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs and TE, all TDs are 6 points , each 25 yards passing are 1 point , interceptions are -2 points , fumbles lost are -2 points , each ten yards receiving are 1 point and two-point conversions are 2 points . For kickers, all extra points are 1 point and all field goals are at least 3 points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards . Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not inlcuded in overall rankings) earn 1 point for each solo tackle , 1 point for each sack , 2 points for each interception and six points for each touchdown . Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete gainst others in the SimLeagues .

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 10 NFL Picks From WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:02:08 -0500

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 4 Patriots 25 @ No. 2 Colts 27
The Brady-Manning Bowl is back.

And it's much more intriguing now that it has both of its namesakes.

The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts have squared off eight times in the regular season and three times in the playoffs since Tom Brady took over as starting quarterback for the Patriots in 2001. Tom Brady is 5-2 during the season and 2-1 in the postseason, though Peyton Manning and the Colts topped New England when Brady was out for the duration of last season.

The Patriots and Colts have squared off six times since they were separated in divisional play and the teams have split evenly at 3-3 with five of those games being decided by one touchdown or less.

In 2009, with both teams atop their respective divisions and ranked in the top four in our most recent power rankings , it would be anything but surprising to see another close battle added to the burgeoning rivalry.

New England is 6-2 overall, but both of those losses have come on the road and they'll be away from home again on Sunday. But the Patriots bring one of the league's top aerial assaults with them to Indy. Brady and the Pats average 7.5 yards per pass attempt with wide receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker each already more than halfway to the 10,000-yard mark.

With an underachieving ground game, they've had to rely on that passing game. New England averages just 4.1 yards per carry and doesn't have a running back with more than 350 yards through eight games.

The defense has followed the offense's suit, stopping the pass with solid success but struggling more against the run. The Pats are allowing just 6.2 yards per pass attempt, but running backs are rushing for 4.5 yards per carry.

A +8 turnover ratio, however, has helped New England dominate time of possession as the Patriots offense is on the field for more than 34 minutes per game and runs about 10 more plays per game than opposing offenses.

Indianapolis remains of just two undefeated teams in the NFL as they escaped a scare from Houston, using a last-second missed field goal to move to 8-0. Somehow, despite their success up to this point, the Colts are even more unbalanced offensively than the Patriots.

Manning leads a passing attack that's even more prolific than Brady's, throwing for more than eight yards per attempt with both Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark topping the 700-yard mark. But their ground game ranks amongst the league's worst with starting running back Joseph Addai running for just 3.4 yards per carry and the Colts, as a team, averaging just 3.7.

Indy's defense is a little more balanced, but has been decimated by injuries, losing star safety Bob Sanders again and cornerback Kelvin Hayden out as well. Still, the Colts found a way past the Texans and now will try to shut down one of the league's most prolific offenses.

They are giving up just 5.8 yards per passing attempt and the key will probably be whether or not Indy's depleted secondary can keep that number low while using its backups against Brady and the Pats. The Colts also give up just 4.3 yards per carry and like the Patriots, hold a solid turnover margin (+7), though their quick-scoring offense actually has them losing the time of possession battle.

In the much-anticipated quarterback tussle, Manning edges Brady by as close a margin as the simulated score would indicate. In the predicted boxscore Colts' signal-caller averages about 16 more yards per game, though both players have about the same chance of throwing two touchdown passes and one interception.

Surprisingly, despite the struggles in the run game, it's the backs that have the best chance of finding the end zone. New England’s Laurence Maroney scores a touchdown just slightly more than Joseph Addai, but each of them average more touchdowns than anyone else on their team.

It all adds up to what should turn out to be the latest close matchup between Brady's Patriots and Manning's Colts. In 10,000 simulations , Indianapolis remains unbeaten 52 percent of the time by an average score of 27-25. Giving three points, Indianapolis beats the spread at less than a 48 percent clip and with the total at 49.5, the teams go over the total just less than 55 percent of the time.

Our Against the Spread "Lock of the Week" is 7-2 on the year and 23-5 all-time. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 10
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Detroit Lions	9.9	14	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Vikings	90.1	31	Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19.7	17	Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins	80.3	28	Simulate Game
Chicago Bears	31.8	18	Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers	68.2	25	Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals	32.1	16	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers	67.9	23	Simulate Game
Buffalo Bills	32.7	17	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	67.3	24	Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks	34.5	19	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	65.5	27	Simulate Game
Jacksonville Jaguars	40.2	21	Boxscore
@ New York Jets	59.8	27	Simulate Game
New England Patriots	48.0	25	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	52.0	27	Simulate Game
Kansas City Chiefs	49.6	21	Boxscore
@ Oakland Raiders	50.4	22	Simulate Game
Philadelphia Eagles	55.9	23	Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers	44.1	22	Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons	65.6	24	Boxscore
@ Carolina Panthers	34.4	20	Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys	69.7	27	Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers	30.3	22	Simulate Game
Denver Broncos	75.9	21	Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins	24.1	15	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	86.3	24	Boxscore
@ Cleveland Browns	13.7	13	Simulate Game
New Orleans Saints	92.2	33	Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams	7.8	17	Simulate Game

Other Notable Games in Week 10
San Diego and Philadelphia find themselves in the same position heading into the second halves of their season. Win this weekend and they could be atop their division heading into next week. Lose and they could fall behind by two games.

In a battle of teams still with a shot at winning their divisions, visiting Philadelphia ends the Chargers' three-game winning streak 59.9 percent of the time and by just a single point on average.

And the NFC West race could essentially come to an end this weekend when Seattle travels to Arizona. The Cardinals finally got their first home win last week against Chicago and now have a two-game lead over the Seahawks and the plummeting San Francisco 49ers, who have lost four straight games.

If the Cardinals win and the 49ers can't get back on track against Chicago, Arizona will hold a three-game lead in the division. If the Cards lose and San Francisco does end its skid, three teams will be within one game of each other. The Cardinals win 65.5 percent of the time and the 49ers win at a 68.2 percent clip.

Other Notable Names in Week 10
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger put together another stellar game against the Denver Broncos on Monday. Now he'll square off with Carson Palmer in a duel to see which team takes the outright lead in the AFC North. Roethlisberger and the Steelers win the team and individual battles. He throws for about 75 more yards than Palmer and almost twice as many touchdowns in a Pittsburgh win.

Atlanta running back Michael Turner had a huge game against Washington this past week and will now try to feast on the Carolina Panthers, who rank just 23rd in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Turner backs up last week's performance with another 100-yard game, finding the end zone more than once per game over 10,000 simulations.

BCS Busting: TCU Vs. Boise State

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:21:38 -0500

With two teams from non-BCS conference schools still unbeaten and the college football season winding down, it looks like another BCS buster will come into play.

Both TCU and Boise State enter this weekend 9-0 and rank in the top six in both the BCS and in our most recent power rankings , still hoping they can find their way into the national championship game.

They'll need some help to get there, but it's increasingly likely that either the Horned Frogs or the Broncos will earn a spot in a BCS bowl—and despite the fact that they both rank within their current rankings, the other will almost certainly be left out.

Which one will be left out?

We won't be able to find out which team is more worthy with a head-to-head matchup on the field before the bowls this season (TCU defeated Boise 17-16 in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl). But we can put the two teams up against each other in a computer simulation, and we did—10,000 times .

We will get to the results of the neutral field matchup, but let's first look in depth at the matchup.

Relatively untested since a 19-8 season-opening victory over Oregon, Boise State moved to 9-0 on Friday with a victory over Louisiana Tech by a score of 45-35. It was the Broncos' second-lowest margin of victory this season, but all signs point to Boise State running the table. Their toughest remaining test will likely be against Nevada on Nov. 27.

In fact, according to simulations of the rest of the season, Boise State has an 82.6 percent chance of remaining undefeated.

Led by quarterback Kellen Moore and running back Jeremy Avery, the Broncos have one of the top 20 offenses in the country. Against the 82nd-toughest schedule to date, they average more than 181 rushing yards per game, but more impressively, they pick up just under five yards per carry.

Moore has thrown for more than 2,200 yards with 27 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and Boise State averages 8.21 yards per pass attempt.

Defensively, the Broncos rank even higher. They give up just over 100 yards per game on the ground, though they allow 3.71 yards per carry. High-scoring games have led teams to go to the air more, and Boise State has passed that test with flying colors, allowing just 5.05 yards per pass attempt. Only Florida has a better number at 5.0.

TCU has passed every test that has come its way as well, earning non-conference road victories against Clemson and Virginia—teams in BCS conferences—and then adding a dominating 38-7 win at BYU during Mountain West Conference play.

Their toughest remaining hurdle to an undefeated season will likely come this week when the Horned Frogs host nationally ranked Utah (view our pick for that game). According to the simulated season, TCU has a 74.6 percent chance of finishing the regular season unbeaten.

TCU senior quarterback Andy Dalton has helped lead a well-balanced offensive attack that the Horned Frogs have sometimes lacked in previous bids to bust into the BCS. Facing the nation's 45th-toughest schedule to date, the Horned Frogs average more than 240 yards per game on the ground, but more impressively are one of few teams averaging more than five yards per rush.

TCU ranks just 66th in passing yards per game, mostly because they haven't had to rely on their aerial attack. When they do throw, the Horned Frogs are averaging an impressive 9.28 yards per pass attempt.

Their defensive presence has been much less surprising, as it has been a TCU mainstay. Not only are the Horned Frogs giving up less than 100 rushing yards per game, they give up less than three yards per carry. TCU also ranks right behind Boise State at third in the country, allowing just 5.15 yards per pass attempt.

But with all the impressive numbers, it's almost certain that—even if TCU and Boise State remain undefeated—only one team from a non-BCS automatic-qualifying conference will burst onto the BCS scene.

Based on the numbers and the teams' performances through nine games, TCU produces the best argument to be that team. In 10,000 simulations between the Horned Frogs and Broncos, the offenses come alive as TCU wins 73.7 percent of the time and by an average score of 34-26 .

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 11 College Football Rankings by WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:52:21 -0500

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams.

Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

Most Notable Storyline

Forget about The Big Three. If this week's simulations show anything, it's that there's still plenty of room for movement at the top of the power rankings.

Florida continues to hold down the top spot, but there's a new No. 2 and Alabama has now dropped all the way to No. 5 heading into Week 11 of the college football season.

The TCU Horned Frogs continue their run with one of the nation's best defenses, but have now added a balanced offensive attack that has helped them to a 9-0 start and a No.2 spot in the power rankings.

TCU beat up on San Diego State on Saturday, out gaining the Aztecs by nearly 300 yards of total offense and forcing four turnovers.

With another dominant performance, and perhaps their toughest test remaining in their quest for a perfect season coming this weekend, the Horned Frogs now beat 97.4 percent of all opponents in 100 simulations with each and every FBS team.

But TCU isn't the only program breaking up the three teams—Florida, Alabama and Texas—who are dominating national championship talk around the country.

Cincinnati survived a scare from Connecticut and has pushed beyond the Crimson Tide, taking over the No. 4 spot.

The Bearcats' offense, particularly their aerial assault, ranks amongst the nation's best. They racked up more than 700 yards of total offense against the Huskies and, despite their defense giving up more than 500, they're now beating FBS opponents 94.8 percent of the time, edging Alabama by a mere 0.1 percent.

Biggest Gains

There was much more movement in recent weeks towards the top of the rankings, including three teams in the top 25 that moved up a dozen spots or more.

Stanford toppled Oregon—a top-five team in our rankings a week ago—and jumps 14 spots from No. 27 to No. 13 this week as it prepares for another huge game with USC.

BYU went to Wyoming and completed decimated the Cowboys on both sides of the ball in a 5—0 rout, moving up 12 spots to No. 14.

And Wisconsin, one of the nation's quietest two—loss teams, edged Indiana on the road and jumps up 14 spots and back into the top 25.

Tulsa is actually the biggest jumper, despite losing to Houston. The 46—45 loss vaults Tulsa up 23 spots to No. 63 in the country. Both Baylor and Northwestern move up 19 spots, but remain in the bottom half of the rankings.

Biggest Losses

Four teams drop at least 20 spots, but none of them were bigger than Oklahoma, which was able to muster just three points in a 10—3 loss to Nebraska.

The Sooners climbed back into the top 10 despite entering last weekend with three losses, but all were single—digit losses to some of the nation's top teams. Another tight one costs the Sooners dearly as Oklahoma falls 26 spots from No. 9 to No. 35, and are now beating all other FBS opponents just 67.5 percent of the time.

Virginia, which wound up being crushed by Miami 52—17, is officially the biggest loser in the rankings, plummeting 28 spots to No. 96.

Kansas, which lost to rival Kansas State in the unpredictable and unimpressive Big 12 North, falls 26 spots to No. 66.

And Wyoming, crippled on their home field in their third shutout loss of the year, dips 23 spots and is teetering on falling out of the top 100.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Florida Gators	-	98.7	54.3	7.1
2.	TCU Horned Frogs	+1	97.4	51.7	8.8
3.	Texas Longhorns	-1	96.3	42.6	7.7
4.	Cincinnati Bearcats	+2	94.8	50.2	13.5
5.	Alabama Crimson Tide	-1	94.7	44.5	8.0
6.	Boise State Broncos	+1	91.8	42.7	13.1
7.	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	+3	91.7	48.8	18.9
8.	Pittsburgh Panthers	+5	88.5	41.1	15.2
9.	Arizona Wildcats	+6	85.2	38.1	15.6
10.	USC Trojans	+1	84.9	37.0	15.2
11.	Ohio State Buckeyes	+7	84.5	34.3	13.1
12.	Utah Utes	+7	83.9	35.9	15.7
13.	Stanford Cardinal	+14	82.7	42.0	19.9
14.	Brigham Young Cougars	+12	82.0	38.4	20.2
15.	Oregon Ducks	-10	81.6	34.3	15.5
16.	Oklahoma State Cowboys	+5	80.6	34.6	16.9
17.	LSU Tigers	-3	79.4	29.2	13.4
18.	Houston Cougars	-2	79.1	40.7	22.7
19.	Clemson Tigers	-2	78.3	31.3	14.2
20.	Iowa Hawkeyes	-12	77.7	27.9	13.0
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
21.	Penn State Nittany Lions	-9	77.4	31.2	15.3
22.	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	+7	77.0	33.7	16.7
23.	Virginia Tech Hokies	-	76.9	35.1	18.7
24.	Wisconsin Badgers	+14	75.5	33.4	17.9
25.	South Florida Bulls	-1	75.4	34.7	19.2
26.	Oregon State Beavers	+7	74.3	31.5	17.3
27.	Texas Tech Red Raiders	+8	73.3	30.0	18.0
28.	Fresno State Bulldogs	+4	72.4	37.5	24.1
29.	Nebraska Cornhuskers	+7	72.1	25.5	14.3
30.	West Virginia Mountaineers	-2	71.4	30.8	17.6
31.	Tennessee Volunteers	-	71.4	28.8	16.5
32.	Arkansas Razorbacks	+5	70.9	35.9	22.9
33.	Auburn Tigers	+9	69.9	32.9	20.5
34.	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	-	69.7	28.2	18.5
35.	Oklahoma Sooners	-26	67.5	22.5	14.5
36.	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-16	66.9	32.4	23.3
37.	Kansas State Wildcats	+13	66.8	28.7	18.8
38.	Mississippi Rebels	+1	66.6	29.6	20.1
39.	Nevada Wolf Pack	-14	66.1	33.2	23.3
40.	Air Force Falcons	+11	64.6	24.0	17.1
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
41.	California Golden Bears	-19	64.5	28.9	20.5
42.	Georgia Bulldogs	+14	61.3	26.6	21.0
43.	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	+12	61.2	25.8	20.6
44.	Connecticut Huskies	-3	61.0	27.5	21.3
45.	Michigan State Spartans	+4	60.6	27.0	21.4
46.	Troy Trojans	+7	60.5	27.7	21.6
47.	Missouri Tigers	-17	59.5	23.2	18.9
48.	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	-1	58.7	26.9	21.4
49.	Idaho Vandals	-4	58.0	30.8	26.9
50.	Boston College Eagles	-4	57.4	23.5	19.7
51.	Texas A&M Aggies	-3	55.9	25.6	23.0
52.	Florida State Seminoles	-8	55.8	29.8	27.0
53.	South Carolina Gamecocks	-10	54.2	22.1	19.9
54.	Temple Owls	-2	54.0	22.1	19.9
55.	Central Michigan Chippewas	+3	53.4	23.7	21.8
56.	Northern Illinois Huskies	+7	52.8	24.2	23.0
57.	Arizona State Sun Devils	-3	51.6	20.0	19.7
58.	Navy Midshipmen	+2	51.4	23.6	23.4
59.	Purdue Boilermakers	+5	51.3	22.2	21.8
60.	North Carolina Tar Heels	-1	50.8	15.6	16.1
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
61.	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	+1	50.8	22.4	21.4
62.	North Carolina State Wolfpack	+11	49.8	22.9	23.1
63.	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	+23	49.6	27.3	27.9
64.	Baylor Bears	+19	49.5	21.5	22.6
65.	Mississippi State Bulldogs	-4	48.1	22.1	23.5
66.	Kansas Jayhawks	-26	46.1	21.5	23.1
67.	Utah State Aggies	-10	45.5	25.0	27.6
68.	Illinois Fighting Illini	+10	44.8	23.2	25.9
69.	UAB Blazers	+15	43.4	25.1	27.5
70.	East Carolina Pirates	-5	43.2	18.8	23.0
71.	Michigan Wolverines	-1	42.0	21.3	26.5
72.	Northwestern Wildcats	+19	41.3	16.9	22.8
73.	Hawaii Warriors	+14	40.1	24.5	30.4
74.	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-5	40.0	17.6	25.1
75.	Indiana Hoosiers	-4	39.0	18.8	25.4
76.	Southern Methodist Mustangs	-	38.9	17.6	24.2
77.	Kentucky Wildcats	-3	37.8	17.7	25.1
78.	Ohio Bobcats	+4	37.8	15.2	22.9
79.	Toledo Rockets	+2	36.7	20.1	28.2
80.	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	+10	36.2	17.2	25.8
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
81.	Arkansas State Red Wolves	-9	36.2	17.3	25.0
82.	UCLA Bruins	-15	36.0	16.3	24.4
83.	Washington Huskies	+2	34.6	19.3	28.4
84.	Colorado Buffaloes	+5	33.9	16.1	24.7
85.	Iowa State Cyclones	-19	32.3	18.3	29.0
86.	Buffalo Bulls	-6	31.9	17.2	28.1
87.	UCF Knights	+6	31.2	13.8	24.0
88.	Kent State Golden Flashes	+7	30.8	13.6	23.8
89.	Duke Blue Devils	-10	30.2	14.6	25.4
90.	Louisville Cardinals	-2	30.2	16.3	27.9
91.	UTEP Miners	+8	29.8	19.2	31.9
92.	Marshall Thundering Herd	-	29.7	15.9	26.9
93.	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	-16	29.5	16.9	27.8
94.	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	-	28.6	15.7	29.1
95.	Syracuse Orange	+2	25.5	13.4	27.4
96.	Virginia Cavaliers	-28	24.9	9.1	23.5
97.	Western Michigan Broncos	+1	23.3	14.3	31.2
98.	Wyoming Cowboys	-23	22.7	10.9	27.3
99.	Florida Atlantic Owls	+2	22.4	17.7	36.1
100.	Ball State Cardinals	+6	20.6	13.4	31.4
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
101.	UNLV Rebels	+9	20.6	15.8	34.7
102.	Maryland Terrapins	+1	19.8	11.2	28.5
103.	Army Black Knights	+2	19.2	10.2	29.3
104.	Vanderbilt Commodores	-	18.5	11.3	30.1
105.	Colorado State Rams	-5	18.5	11.1	29.4
106.	Memphis Tigers	+1	17.3	13.2	33.1
107.	North Texas Mean Green	-5	17.0	13.1	35.6
108.	San Diego State Aztecs	-12	16.6	9.3	29.0
109.	Bowling Green Falcons	-	15.6	10.8	33.8
110.	Akron Zips	+1	15.3	10.4	31.5
111.	Tulane Green Wave	-3	14.2	11.9	33.5
112.	Miami (OH) RedHawks	+3	11.4	8.2	34.0
113.	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	-1	9.3	10.1	39.8
114.	New Mexico Lobos	-	8.7	6.4	34.4
115.	Washington State Cougars	+1	8.3	7.8	38.1
116.	New Mexico State Aggies	+2	7.7	7.3	38.4
117.	San Jose State Spartans	+3	6.1	7.6	40.8
118.	Rice Owls	-1	6.1	7.8	38.6
119.	Florida International Golden Panthers	-6	5.3	7.2	38.6
120.	Eastern Michigan Eagles	-1	4.0	6.1	42.1

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to game-planning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 11 College Football Conference Rankings

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:39:52 -0500

WhatIfSports.com utilizes the results of the weekly college football power rankings to rank all 12 D-I FBS conferences, including the independents.

Conferences are ordered by winning percentage against other conferences in the over 700,000 simulated games. For more information, check out this week's college football power rankings .

Conferences Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Conference	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Big East	64.6	30.3	20.1
2.	SEC	64.3	29.6	19.0
3.	Big 12	61.2	25.8	19.3
4.	Pac-10	60.4	27.5	21.4
5.	Big Ten	57.7	24.9	20.7
6.	ACC	56.2	25.1	21.0
7.	Mountain West	46.4	22.6	24.0
8.	WAC	46.1	25.1	28.0
9.	C-USA	36.8	19.9	27.9
10.	Independents	36.7	19.1	29.0
11.	Sun Belt	32.1	17.3	29.1
12.	MAC	29.8	15.3	28.6

With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 11 College Football Picks from WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:42 -0500

Each Monday morning, we preview every college football FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 20 Iowa, 15 @ No. 11 Ohio State 21

The Big Ten race was supposed to come down to one game.

It just wasn't this one.

Heading into the season, many thought that the Big Ten champion would be decided by Ohio State's trip to Penn State. Instead, that game—combined with a surprise—simply set up a different winner-take-all matchup one week later as Iowa travels to Ohio State with a trip to the Rose Bowl up for grabs.

The Hawkeyes were in the conference's driver's seat until this past weekend when their 13-game winning streak came to a screeching halt against Northwestern. The Wildcats knocked out Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi, ending the Hawkeyes' dreams of finding their way into the BCS title game.

Now they'll most probably need a victory this week to land spot in a BCS bowl game. And they'll likely have to do so without Stanzi. His numbers certainly weren't earth-shattering, but Stanzi had a knack for helping the Hawkeyes find a way to win.

Iowa will now look to James Vandenberg to jumpstart the Hawkeyes' offense. Against the 37th toughest schedule to-date, Iowa ranks near the bottom of the national rankings with just 3.4 yards per carry.

The Hawkeyes' passing marks are a little better at 7.5 yards per attempt, but they've thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns. Thus, for the Hawkeyes to succeed, the game will probably come down to how well Iowa can limit Ohio State quarterback Terrell Pryor and the Buckeyes offense. The Hawkeyes give up just over 3.5 yards per carry and rank among the best in the nation, allowing less than 5.5 yards per pass attempt.

While Iowa will try to bounce back from its first loss of the season, Ohio State is coming off its best victory of the year, a road win over Penn State that helped create this winner-take-all game.

Pryor has had an inconsistent season, but threw for two touchdowns and ran for another against the Nittany Lions. Playing against the 46th toughest schedule, Ohio State hasn't had quite the prolific ground game that it has brought to the table in the past, but the Buckeyes are still averaging 4.7 yards per carry and, while they rank in the 90's in passing yards per game, that statistic is a bit deceiving as they average 7.5 yards per attempt.

The Buckeyes really make their mark on defense. They rank third in the country in rushing defense, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry, and they rank fifth in the country through the air, allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.

In a battle of stiff defenses and top-20 teams in our most recent power rankings , it's no surprise that the total stays under 40 points in the Battle for the Big Ten. And in 10,000 simulations, the team that won that game that many thought would decide the league's race last week wins the game that will actually decide the champion this time around. The Buckeyes win exactly two-thirds of the time (66.7 percent) and by an average score of 21-15.

Other Notable Games in Week 11

One of the best games this week will be played under the Friday night lights as West Virginia travels to Cincinnati looking to shake up the BCS and Big East standings.

But the Bearcats remain undefeated in the country's most competitive conference 73.1 percent of the time, 33-24.

That game will kick off a monster weekend for the Big East, though we could be saying those same words every week from here on out. Pittsburgh goes out of conference for somewhat of a statement game, looking to take down Notre Dame. The Panthers move to 9-1 with a win more than 70 percent of the time and by a 10-point average advantage.

South Florida and Rutgers face off in a game where the loser can forget about the conference race. The Bulls take care of the Scarlet Knights on the road 61.7 percent of the time and by just two points.

Oregon suffered a setback against Stanford last weekend, but still sits in the Pac-10 driver's seat. That said, the race is still a bit of a mess.

The Ducks stay in the top spot 78.6 percent of the time this week, taking care of Arizona State by two touchdowns. Stanford, looking to spring its second consecutive upset, comes up just short as USC takes care of the Cardinal 61.2 percent of the time and by an average score of 33-29.

And Arizona, which has flown under the radar but could take the league by storm against Oregon next week, moves to 5-1 in conference by winning 82.1 percent of the time with an 11-point average victory over Cal.

And as we hit the final month of the season, we remain on undefeated watch, but with one less team to keep an eye on after Iowa's loss.

Perhaps the biggest game of the entire week in terms of the BCS picture will take place in Fort Worth, Texas, where Utah may have the best remaining shot of ending TCU's undefeated run.

The Horned Frogs remain the top BCS buster candidate by winning 76.1 percent of the time and by a score of 35-24.

In the SEC, Florida's run continues 86.1 percent of the time with a two-touchdown victory against South Carolina, and Alabama remains unbeaten 95.0 percent of the time at Mississippi State.

Boise State goes to 10-0 94.0 percent of the time against a bowl-eligible Idaho team. And Texas wins at Baylor 94.5 percent of the time.

This means that there is a 46.7 percent chance that all six remaining FBS unbeatens win this week.

Last week, we hit our "Lock of the Week" to improve our ATS record to 7-2 on the year in both the NFL and college football. To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

College Football Week 11
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Florida State Seminoles	43.3	25
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	56.7	29
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	68.2	21
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	31.8	16
Boston College Eagles	77.6	20
@ Virginia Cavaliers	22.4	12
Clemson Tigers	89.6	28
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	10.4	14
Virginia Tech Hokies	90.0	31
@ Maryland Terrapins	10.0	14
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	95.0	39
@ Duke Blue Devils	5.0	17
West Virginia Mountaineers	26.9	24
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	73.1	33
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	29.4	27
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	70.6	37
Syracuse Orange	38.3	15
@ Louisville Cardinals	61.7	21
South Florida Bulls	61.7	27
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	38.3	25
South Dakota State Jackrabbits	5.0	7
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	95.0	29
Indiana Hoosiers	17.9	18
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	82.1	32
Michigan Wolverines	24.9	20
@ Wisconsin Badgers	75.1	34
Iowa Hawkeyes	33.3	15
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	66.7	21
Northwestern Wildcats	39.8	18
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	60.2	23
Michigan State Spartans	64.7	24
@ Purdue Boilermakers	35.3	21
Ball State Cardinals	5.0	10
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	95.0	35
Toledo Rockets	26.9	19
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	73.1	30
Ohio Bobcats	62.7	24
@ Buffalo Bulls	37.3	20
Bowling Green Falcons	69.7	18
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	30.3	13
Temple Owls	90.5	27
@ Akron Zips	9.5	13
Western Michigan Broncos	91.5	32
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	8.5	15
Washington Huskies	15.9	18
@ Oregon State Beavers	84.1	34
Arizona State Sun Devils	21.4	14
@ Oregon Ducks	78.6	27
Stanford Cardinal	38.8	29
@ USC Trojans	61.2	33
Arizona Wildcats	82.1	32
@ California Golden Bears	17.9	21
UCLA Bruins	88.6	28
@ Washington State Cougars	11.4	14
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	5.0	9
@ LSU Tigers	95.0	33
Troy Trojans	23.9	26
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	76.1	37
Tennessee Volunteers	60.2	23
@ Mississippi Rebels	39.8	21
Auburn Tigers	60.7	28
@ Georgia Bulldogs	39.3	27
Kentucky Wildcats	73.1	22
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	26.9	14
Florida Gators	86.1	28
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	13.9	14
Alabama Crimson Tide	95.0	36
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	5.0	10
Idaho Vandals	6.0	21
@ Boise State Broncos	94.0	44
New Mexico State Aggies	9.5	14
@ Hawaii Warriors	90.5	38
San Jose State Spartans	20.9	18
@ Utah State Aggies	79.1	31
Fresno State Bulldogs	33.8	34
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	66.2	42
Delaware Blue Hens	5.0	9
@ Navy Midshipmen	95.0	38
Virginia Military Keydets	20.4	9
@ Army Black Knights	79.6	20
Texas Tech Red Raiders	30.8	21
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	69.2	28
Texas A&M Aggies	31.3	16
@ Oklahoma Sooners	68.7	23
Missouri Tigers	33.8	19
@ Kansas State Wildcats	66.2	26
Colorado Buffaloes	60.7	24
@ Iowa State Cyclones	39.3	22
Nebraska Cornhuskers	69.2	23
@ Kansas Jayhawks	30.8	17
Texas Longhorns	94.5	31
@ Baylor Bears	5.5	15
UTEP Miners	30.8	18
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	69.2	26
East Carolina Pirates	33.8	22
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	66.2	28
Tulane Green Wave	73.1	32
@ Rice Owls	26.9	26
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	89.6	31
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	10.4	15
UAB Blazers	90.0	33
@ Memphis Tigers	10.0	19
Houston Cougars	94.5	38
@ UCF Knights	5.5	20
UNLV Rebels	7.5	11
@ Air Force Falcons	92.5	31
Utah Utes	23.9	24
@ TCU Horned Frogs	76.1	35
Wyoming Cowboys	69.2	20
@ San Diego State Aztecs	30.8	17
Brigham Young Cougars	95.0	39
@ New Mexico Lobos	5.0	13
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	18.4	15
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	81.6	33
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	33.3	15
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	66.7	23
Arkansas State Red Wolves	75.6	27
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	24.4	20
North Texas Mean Green	80.6	25
@ Florida International Golden Panthers	19.4	15

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling—it is all under your control. Start at D-III and try to work your way up to winning the D-I championship at your favorite school.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Ranking the 2009 Yankees

WhatIfSports.com — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:11:36 -0500

The New York Yankees are the best team in baseball—for the 2009 season (as we predicted in our World Series Preview ). But is this one of the best teams in baseball history? Is it even one of the best teams in Yankees history? What about this decade?

This is where WhatIfSports steps in with the answers. As the 2009 MLB season comes to its end, we set out to rank all 27 previous Yankees World Series winners, as well as to order the 10 champions of the 2000s. To do this in as fair a manner as possible, in separate studies, we "played" all 27 Yankees teams against all of the other Yankees championship teams, and each of the most recent 10 champions against all of the other most recent champions in neutral ballparks 30 times each so that the Top-Three starting pitchers get 10 chances in every series. Teams are then ranked by winning percentage from those games.

Ranking the 27 Yankees World Series Champions

Rank	Season	Win %	WS MVP
1.	1927	59.5%	Babe Ruth*
2.	1939	58.2%	Charlie Keller*
3.	1998	55.4%	Scott Brosius
4.	1943	55.1%	Spud Chanlder*
5.	1961	55.1%	Whitey Ford
6.	1928	54.4%	Lou Gehrig*
7.	1937	53.8%	Lou Gehrig*
8.	1932	53.5%	Babe Ruth*
9.	1923	51.3%	Babe Ruth*
10.	1952	50.7%	Mickey Mantle*
11.	1953	50.3%	Billy Martin
12.	2009	50.2%	Hideki Matsui
13.	1950	50.0%	Gene Woodling*
14.	2000	49.1%	Derek Jeter
15.	1962	48.8%	Ralph Terry
16.	1978	48.8%	Bucky Dent
17.	1958	48.5%	Bob Turley
18.	1936	48.1%	Jake Powell*
19.	1941	48.1%	Charlie Keller*
20.	1947	47.8%	Joe DiMaggio*
21.	1999	46.9%	Mariano Rivera
22.	1956	46.3%	Don Larsen
23.	1938	45.6%	Bill Dickey*
24.	1951	45.3%	Phil Rizzuto*
25.	1949	45.3%	Jerry Coleman*
26.	1996	42.2%	John Wetteland
27.	1977	41.8%	Reggie Jackson

*MVP was not awarded at the time. It was chosen by WhatIfSports.com based on performance in that year's World Series.

The 2009 version is just better than the average Yankees World Series champion (winning just 50.2 percent of the time against the others). The team can be characterized by overall balance, yet lacking of dominating players like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Whitey Ford. It's probably not a surprise to many to see the 1927 "Murderers' Row" Yankees with career years out of Ruth, Gehrig, Tony Lazzeri, Earle Combs, Bob Meusel, Waite Hoyt, and Urban Shocker, atop this list, but it may be notable that the 1977 team ranks last. Reggie Jackson's World Series performance from 1977 is memorable, but the team's regular season was not exceptional. Among everyday players, just Reggie Jackson eclipsed an .850 OPS, and a pitching staff prone to giving up homeruns.

Ranking the World Series Champions of the 2000s

Rank	Team	Win %	WS MVP
1.	2004 Boston Red Sox	59.7%	Manny Ramirez
2.	2009 New York Yankees	58.2%	Hideki Matsui
3.	2008 Philadelphia Phillies	54.8%	Cole Hamels
4.	2000 New York Yankees	52.3%	Derek Jeter
5.	2007 Boston Red Sox	50.8%	Mike Lowell
6.	2003 Florida Marlins	48.6%	Josh Beckett
7.	2001 Arizona Diamondbacks	48.3%	Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson
8.	2002 Anaheim Angels	43.9%	Troy Glaus
9.	2005 Chicago White Sox	41.9%	Jermaine Dye
10.	2006 St. Louis Cardinals	41.6%	David Eckstein

The 2009 Yankees may only be the 12th best champion in franchise history, but they are the second-best since the turn of the millennium. This probably speaks more to the parity (or mediocrity) of the top teams in recent history, than to the dominance of this season's champion, or the 2004 Red Sox that rank first. In fact, the best world champion of the decade was a wild card team that had to battle back from a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS just to make the World Series.

And lastly, this Yankees team would rank 51st among the 105 World Series winners in Major League history. The 1975 Cincinnati Reds just edge the 1927 Yankees as the best champion all-time, while the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals are barely better the 1987 Minnesota Twins, who come in as the worst World Series winner ever.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in free mlb matchup analysis, and baseball sim leagues . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 9 Fantasy Football Projections From WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:33:29 -0500

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Buccaneers	23.7
2.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Panthers	23.6
3.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	Texans	22.9
4.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Cowboys	21.3
5.	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	Dolphins	20.1
6.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Buccaneers	19.7
7.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Giants	17.7
8.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Bengals	17.6
9.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Bengals	17.4
10.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Eagles	17.2
11.	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	Broncos	17.1
12.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	Lions	17.1
13.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	Colts	17.1
14.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	Chiefs	17.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Titans	16.9
16.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	49ers	16.9
17.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Panthers	16.7
18.	Michael Turner	RB	Falcons	Redskins	16.5
19.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Cardinals	15.8
20.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Bears	15.7
21.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Saints	15.7
22.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Redskins	15.2
23.	Carson Palmer	QB	Bengals	Ravens	15.0
24.	Matt Cassel	QB	Chiefs	Jaguars	15.0
25.	Ronnie Brown	RB	Dolphins	Patriots	14.9
26.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Cardinals	14.7
27.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	Texans	14.7
28.	Cedric Benson	RB	Bengals	Ravens	14.7
29.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	Titans	14.6
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	Chiefs	14.5
31.	Ryan Moats	RB	Texans	Colts	14.4
32.	Brian Westbrook	RB	Eagles	Cowboys	14.3
33.	Clinton Portis	RB	Redskins	Falcons	13.9
34.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	Lions	13.7
35.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Eagles	13.6
36.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Patriots	13.4
37.	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Steelers	Broncos	13.2
38.	Chad Ochocinco	WR	Bengals	Ravens	13.2
39.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	Texans	13.2
40.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Steelers	13.0
41.	Wes Welker	WR	Patriots	Dolphins	12.9
42.	Vince Young	QB	Titans	49ers	12.9
43.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Bears	12.7
44.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Panthers	12.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Chargers	12.3
46.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Giants	12.2
47.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Eagles	12.0
48.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	Colts	11.7
49.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Chargers	11.4
50.	Randy Moss	WR	Patriots	Dolphins	11.4
51.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Buccaneers	11.3
52.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Cowboys	11.3
53.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Steelers	11.1
54.	Kolby Smith	RB	Chiefs	Jaguars	10.6
55.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	Texans	10.6
56.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Buccaneers	10.4
57.	Josh Freeman	QB	Buccaneers	Packers	10.3
58.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Panthers	10.3
59.	Jason Campbell	QB	Redskins	Falcons	10.3
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Bears	10.2
61.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	Lions	10.2
62.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Chargers	10.2
63.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Redskins	10.1
64.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	Cardinals	10.1
65.	Matthew Stafford	QB	Lions	Seahawks	10.0
66.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Cowboys	9.8
67.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Saints	9.7
68.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Cowboys	9.5
69.	Hines Ward	WR	Steelers	Broncos	9.4
70.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Seahawks	9.4
71.	Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	Jaguars	9.4
72.	Sammy Morris	RB	Patriots	Dolphins	9.4
73.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Eagles	9.4
74.	Jeff Reed	K	Steelers	Broncos	9.3
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Patriots	9.3
76.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	Colts	9.3
77.	John Carney	K	Saints	Panthers	9.2
78.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Giants	9.2
79.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Giants	9.2
80.	Derrick Ward	RB	Buccaneers	Packers	9.2
81.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Giants	9.1
82.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Cardinals	9.1
83.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	Bears	9.0
84.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Saints	8.9
85.	Carnell Williams	RB	Buccaneers	Packers	8.9
86.	Shayne Graham	K	Bengals	Ravens	8.9
87.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Redskins	8.8
88.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	Texans	8.6
89.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Buccaneers	8.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	Colts	8.5
91.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	Lions	8.5
92.	Stephen Gostkowski	K	Patriots	Dolphins	8.5
93.	Laurence Maroney	RB	Patriots	Dolphins	8.5
94.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Patriots	8.4
95.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Saints	8.3
96.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	Texans	8.3
97.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Bears	8.2
98.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Cowboys	8.2
99.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Redskins	8.1
100.	Maurice Morris	RB	Lions	Seahawks	8.1
101.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Bengals	8.0
102.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Eagles	7.9
103.	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Chiefs	Jaguars	7.8
104.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Cowboys	7.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Redskins	7.6
106.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	Steelers	7.6
107.	Santana Moss	WR	Redskins	Falcons	7.5
108.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Saints	7.4
109.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	Lions	7.4
110.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Seahawks	7.4
111.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Chargers	7.4
112.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Panthers	7.4
113.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	Panthers	7.3
114.	Bears	DEF		Cardinals	7.3
115.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Eagles	7.3
116.	Calvin Johnson	WR	Lions	Seahawks	7.2
117.	Steven Hauschka	K	Ravens	Bengals	7.2
118.	John Carlson	TE	Seahawks	Lions	7.2
119.	Heath Miller	TE	Steelers	Broncos	7.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Packers	DEF		Buccaneers	7.1
121.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	Chiefs	7.1
122.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Titans	7.1
123.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	Titans	7.0
124.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Steelers	6.9
125.	Seahawks	DEF		Lions	6.8
126.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Bengals	6.8
127.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Titans	6.8
128.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Bears	6.8
129.	Johnny Knox	WR	Bears	Cardinals	6.7
130.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	49ers	6.6
131.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Chargers	6.6
132.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	Giants	6.5
133.	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers	Broncos	6.5
134.	Chargers	DEF		Giants	6.4
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	Saints	DEF		Panthers	6.3
136.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Panthers	6.3
137.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	Giants	6.3
138.	Falcons	DEF		Redskins	6.3
139.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	Chiefs	6.2
140.	Kevin Faulk	RB	Patriots	Dolphins	6.2
141.	Austin Collie	WR	Colts	Texans	6.2
142.	Mike Thomas	WR	Jaguars	Chiefs	6.1
143.	Ryan Succop	K	Chiefs	Jaguars	6.1
144.	Shaun Suisham	K	Redskins	Falcons	6.1
145.	Cardinals	DEF		Bears	6.1
146.	Kevin Walter	WR	Texans	Colts	6.0
147.	Andre Caldwell	WR	Bengals	Ravens	6.0
148.	Chad Simpson	RB	Colts	Texans	6.0
149.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	49ers	6.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Steelers	DEF		Broncos	5.8
151.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	Patriots	5.7
152.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Steelers	5.7
153.	Broncos	DEF		Steelers	5.6
154.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	Chargers	5.6
155.	Patrick Crayton	WR	Cowboys	Eagles	5.6
156.	Jaguars	DEF		Chiefs	5.6
157.	Lions	DEF		Seahawks	5.6
158.	Edgerrin James	RB	Seahawks	Lions	5.5
159.	Patriots	DEF		Dolphins	5.5
160.	Antonio Bryant	WR	Buccaneers	Packers	5.3
161.	Bryant Johnson	WR	Lions	Seahawks	5.3
162.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	Chiefs	5.2
163.	Bengals	DEF		Ravens	5.2
164.	Donald Lee	TE	Packers	Buccaneers	5.1
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Roy Williams	WR	Cowboys	Eagles	5.1
166.	49ers	DEF		Titans	5.1
167.	Kellen Winslow	TE	Buccaneers	Packers	5.1
168.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Cardinals	5.1
169.	Jabar Gaffney	WR	Broncos	Steelers	5.0
170.	Josh Morgan	WR	49ers	Titans	4.9
171.	Giants	DEF		Chargers	4.9
172.	Titans	DEF		49ers	4.9
173.	Kelley Washington	WR	Ravens	Bengals	4.8
174.	Mewelde Moore	RB	Steelers	Broncos	4.8
175.	Chris Henry	WR	Bengals	Ravens	4.8
176.	Lance Long	WR	Chiefs	Jaguars	4.8
177.	Colts	DEF		Texans	4.8
178.	Todd Heap	TE	Ravens	Bengals	4.7
179.	Tashard Choice	RB	Cowboys	Eagles	4.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Fred Davis	TE	Redskins	Falcons	4.7
181.	Isaac Bruce	WR	49ers	Titans	4.6
182.	Ravens	DEF		Bengals	4.6
183.	Mike Wallace	WR	Steelers	Broncos	4.6
184.	Kevin Boss	TE	Giants	Chargers	4.6
185.	Sammie Stroughter	WR	Buccaneers	Packers	4.6
186.	Bo Scaife	TE	Titans	49ers	4.4
187.	Shane Andrus	K	Buccaneers	Packers	4.4
188.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Cardinals	4.2
189.	Bobby Wade	WR	Chiefs	Jaguars	4.2
190.	Le'Ron McClain	RB	Ravens	Bengals	4.1
191.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	Steelers	4.1
192.	LenDale White	RB	Titans	49ers	4.0
193.	Eagles	DEF		Cowboys	4.0
194.	Jason Snelling	RB	Falcons	Redskins	4.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Redskins	DEF		Falcons	4.0
196.	Dolphins	DEF		Patriots	4.0
197.	Mark Bradley	WR	Chiefs	Jaguars	4.0
198.	Antwaan Randle El	WR	Redskins	Falcons	3.9
199.	Nate Washington	WR	Titans	49ers	3.9
200.	Chiefs	DEF		Jaguars	3.9

* The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs and TE, all TDs are 6 points , each 25 yards passing are 1 point , interceptions are -2 points , fumbles lost are -2 points , each ten yards receiving are 1 point and two-point conversions are 2 points . For kickers, all extra points are 1 point and all field goals are at least 3 points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards . Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not inlcuded in overall rankings) earn 1 point for each solo tackle , 1 point for each sack , 2 points for each interception and six points for each touchdown . Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete gainst others in the SimLeagues .

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

NFL Power Rankings: Week 9

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:27:18 -0500

Most Notable Move:

The Dallas Cowboys have fought their way back from pretender to contender. The next two weeks will play a huge role in deciding if they remain in that category.

Four weeks ago "America's Team" was 2-2, coming off a loss at Denver and many had already started writing the Cowboys off. Four weeks and three consecutive victories later and Dallas is back amongst the top five teams in the NFL, moving up four more spots this week to No. 5 in our Power Rankings.

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo threw for 256 more yards in a 38-17 victory over Seattle on Sunday and has now thrown for more than 900 yards over his past three games. The Cowboys offense now ranks in the top seven in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense and passing offense per game. They are averaging an eye-opening 6.6 yards per offensive play.

But a surge from the Cowboys' defense might be necessary to help them keep their contender status. They rank outside the top 20 in yards and passing yards allowed per game, though much of that has to do with the fact that opposing offenses are getting more snaps. Dallas is allowing 5.3 yards per play.

A two-game road stretch will now decide if the Cowboys will remain a top five team. They'll travel to No. 8 Philadelphia this week, a matchup that is nearly a coin flip after 10,000 simulations. And next week, they go to No. 10 Green Bay, which will also be fighting for a playoff spot.

As for right now, though, consider them a top contender as they continue moving up and now beat opposing NFL teams more than 71 percent of the time in 100 simulations against every other team in the league.

Biggest Gain:

It's no shock that the biggest gain comes from the biggest surprise of Week Eight. The fact that the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Giants wasn't the stunner, but the 40-17 trouncing that Philadelphia laid on New York certainly opened some eyes. And if computers had eyes, they would probably be open, too. Philly moves from middle-of-the-pack back to contender, jumping eight spots this week to No. 8.

Carolina, which beat Arizona on the road, moves up five spots. And Minnesota , leaps two more spots and is now a top-four team.

Biggest Loss:

Just as the Arizona Cardinals started to look legitimate themselves, they negated nearly all of their progress with a demoralizing 34-21 loss at home to the Panthers on Sunday. A Super Bowl team a year ago, the Cards would be in line to make another run if they could just win at home. They had won three consecutive games, all of them on the road, before last week, but lost again at home, falling to 0-3 there and dropping 11 spots in the power rankings to No. 18.

Four teams tie for the second biggest loss, just four spots—including previously undefeated Denver which drops to No. 7 and the hapless Detroit Lions, who once again are the second-worst team in the league.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	New Orleans Saints	-	88.9	36.3	18.4
2.	Indianapolis Colts	-	76.5	27.0	17.6
3.	Pittsburgh Steelers	+1	75.9	28.2	18.4
4.	Minnesota Vikings	+2	75.7	27.2	18.2
5.	Dallas Cowboys	+4	71.4	28.6	20.8
6.	New England Patriots	-1	69.0	26.6	19.5
7.	Denver Broncos	-4	67.6	21.3	15.3
8.	Philadelphia Eagles	+8	66.5	27.0	21.4
9.	Cincinnati Bengals	+1	66.0	24.7	18.7
10.	Green Bay Packers	-2	61.3	24.4	20.3
11.	San Francisco 49ers	+3	61.3	23.3	19.2
12.	Baltimore Ravens	-	60.7	24.1	19.9
13.	New York Jets	+2	59.9	24.8	20.0
14.	San Diego Chargers	-3	55.6	23.7	21.9
15.	Miami Dolphins	+2	54.5	21.7	19.9
16.	Atlanta Falcons	+3	53.4	22.0	21.0
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
17.	Houston Texans	-4	53.2	23.6	22.8
18.	Arizona Cardinals	-11	48.5	20.9	21.6
19.	Carolina Panthers	+5	47.5	22.7	23.3
20.	Chicago Bears	+1	45.9	21.3	22.3
21.	New York Giants	-3	41.1	20.1	23.0
22.	Jacksonville Jaguars	-2	40.3	21.7	24.7
23.	Tennessee Titans	+2	35.6	20.0	24.3
24.	Seattle Seahawks	-1	34.8	19.0	24.3
25.	St. Louis Rams	+1	29.8	19.1	26.4
26.	Buffalo Bills	-4	29.3	17.1	25.1
27.	Oakland Raiders	+2	29.0	16.9	25.4
28.	Kansas City Chiefs	+3	23.4	16.9	27.6
29.	Cleveland Browns	-1	21.2	16.5	27.7
30.	Washington Redskins	-	20.1	14.9	26.6
31.	Detroit Lions	-4	19.8	16.6	29.1
32.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	16.6	16.5	30.0

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

NFL Week Nine Picks from WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:22:19 -0500

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, are located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 12 Baltimore Ravens 20 at No. 9 Cincinnati Bengals 23
With three teams all within one game of the lead, only one other division in the NFL— the NFC East—i s as close going into Week Nine as the AFC North. Will the AFC North's top three teams go into Week 10 in the middle of the same battle? Or will we see some separation?

It all comes down to Sunday's matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals.

If the visiting Ravens win their second big game in a row, they'll find themselves in either a tie for first or second— depending on how Pittsburgh's game turns out. If the Bengals continue their successful season with another victory, they could take the outright lead in the North and put the Ravens two games out and in quite the predicament as the NFL nears its stretch run.

Cincinnati put itself in this position by taking down Baltimore four weeks ago with one of the Bengals' many late fourth-quarter rallies. Another close, heated battle on Sunday would be no surprise.

The Ravens snapped their three-game losing streak in dominating fashion against the Broncos last week, using the extra preparation of a bye week to hand Denver its first loss of the season, 30-7.

Baltimore is 4-3, but still has the league's fourth-best scoring offense at more than 28 points per game while playing against the fourth-toughest schedule to-date.

Led by Ray Rice, who ranks fifth among all running backs with at least 65 carries at 5.5 yards per rush, the Ravens are averaging 4.6 yards per carry as a team. And quarterback Joe Flacco is throwing for more than seven yards per attempt, a number that has helped Baltimore convert nearly 50 percent of its third down opportunities.

The Ravens defense isn't quite as stout as it has been in recent years and is giving up 5.3 yards per play. But Cincinnati will have to work hard to have another successful ground game against Ray Lewis and Baltimore, which is giving up just 3.5 yards per carry.

The Bengals are also coming off of their most impressive victory of the season. They had a bye last week, but decimated the Chicago Bears 45-10 one week earlier and are now 5-2 despite having played the third-hardest schedule in the NFL.

Cedric Benson and the Bengals are only rushing for 4.4 yards per carry, but their most recent meeting with Baltimore was one of the most successful for any back against the Ravens in recent memory. Quarterback Carson Palmer hasn't exactly been lights-out— averaging 7.1 yards per attempt— but has rebounded with a solid season and has been a key cog in clutch situations.

Cincinnati will also bring a stout rushing defense into this week as opponents are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry against the Bengals. Similarly, the Bengals struggle a little bit more against the pass, and this game could come down to how effective each teams' secondary is at shutting down Flacco or Palmer.

According to 10,001 simulations (View Predicted Boxscore) , Cincinnati may need another dramatic fourth quarter, but the Bengals create a slight amount of separation in the AFC North by topping the Ravens for the second time this season. They win 55.2 percent of the time, by an average score of 23-20.

Cincinnati is actually getting three points in Vegas, making a Bengals upset one of the strongest plays of the week (the Bengals cover 69.9 percent). The total, at 43.5, is much weaker and is virtually a tossup.

It looks like the Bengals' offensive playmakers give them the edge.

The Ravens average more rushing yards and more passing yards, but in more than half of the simulations, Benson comes close to rushing for 100 yards again, and scores a touchdown. So does wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, who could get to the 100-yard mark as well. In a tight game, the kicking game could almost certainly play a factor as well, and Shayne Graham averages nearly two field goals per game, while Ravens' kicker Steven Hauschka averages 1.5.

Cincinnati's offense needed a dominating performance to beat Baltimore by three the first time. It may not gain that offensive advantage again this time, but the result looks like more of the same.

Our Against the Spread "Lock of the Week" is 6-2 on the year and 22-5 all-time. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here. Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week Nine
Matchup	Win Percentage	Avg Score
Carolina Panthers	13.5	18	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	86.5	34	Simulate Game
Washington Redskins	20.1	14	Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons	79.9	26	Simulate Game
Detroit Lions	24.5	14	Boxscore
@ Seattle Seahawks	75.5	25	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	32.0	21	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	68.0	29	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	34.4	19	Boxscore
@ New England Patriots	65.6	27	Simulate Game
Tennessee Titans	34.9	17	Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers	65.1	23	Simulate Game
Kansas City Chiefs	37.1	18	Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars	62.9	24	Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals	41.7	19	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	58.3	23	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	44.8	20	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals	55.2	23	Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys	48.4	26	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	51.6	28	Simulate Game
Pittsburgh Steelers	64.1	21	Boxscore
@ Denver Broncos	35.9	18	Simulate Game
San Diego Chargers	67.5	21	Boxscore
@ New York Giants	32.5	18	Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers	85.0	28	Boxscore
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15.0	16	Simulate Game

Other Notable Games in Week Nine

As other divisions look to create more separation, the AFC West race may just get a little bit murkier. The New York Giants continue their freefall, losing their fourth game in a row 67.5 percent of the time as they host the San Diego Chargers this weekend. With a win San Diego could move within one game of the Denver Broncos, who drop their second consecutive game 64.1 percent of the time while hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The closest game of the week looks like it will take place in Philadelphia as the Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys. Philly has won two games in a row and Dallas has won three, but something will have to give in a game that is nearly a coin flip. The winner will take the outright lead in the NFC East and the Eagles do just that 51.6 percent of the time and by an avereage score of 28-26.

Other Notable Names in Week Nine

The changeup in Tennessee seemed to spark the Titans as Vince Young took over at quarterback and they went on to stomp on Jacksonville 30-13. Young's numbers certainly didn't jump off the page, but it was Tennessee's first victory of the season.

The Titans should get a stiffer test this week as they travel across the country to face the 49ers. San Francisco wins 65.1 percent of the time and by a score of 23-17 as Young averages about 152 passing yards and nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns. Tennessee running back Chris Johnson, last week's leading rusher, should get to triple digit rushing yards again.

Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning and New Orleans signal caller Drew Brees led the league in passing yards last week. Not coincidentally, the Colts and Saints are now the NFL's only remaining unbeaten teams. Brees and the Saints remain unbeaten 86.5 percent of the time while hosting Carolina, and Brees could very well eclipse 300 passing yards for the fifth time this year. Manning has a slightly lower chance to get to 300, but his team should remain undefeated as well, beating visiting Houston 68 percent of the time.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 10 College Football Conference Rankings

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:14:09 -0500

WhatIfSports.com utilizes the results of the weekly college football power rankings to rank all 12 D-I FBS conferences, including the independents.

Conferences are ordered by winning percentage against other conferences in the over 700,000 simulated games.

For more information, check out this week's college football power rankings .

Conferences Ranked by Winning Percentage (Everyone Plays Everyone 100 Times)

	Conference	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	SEC	64.1	29.2	18.9
2.	Big East	63.3	28.5	19.7
3.	Big 12	63.1	27.0	18.9
4.	Pac-10	61.8	28.4	21.1
5.	Big Ten	57.0	24.6	20.8
6.	ACC	55.8	24.8	21.0
7.	Mountain West	47.3	21.7	23.4
8.	WAC	46.3	24.6	26.9
9.	Independents	40.0	20.3	28.0
10.	C-USA	34.5	18.7	28.5
11.	Sun Belt	32.6	17.5	28.5
12.	MAC	29.0	15.0	28.7

With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week 10 College Football Rankings by WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:41:48 -0500

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic, and unbiased ranking of all teams.

We simulated every possible D-I FBS matchup 100 and used the winning percentages from 700,000-plus games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games.

Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

Most Notable Storyline

Week nine's two biggest games both turned into routs this past weekend. How did that affect the way the teams involved look in the latest power rankings?

They certainly move up, but perhaps none of them as far as you might have expected.

There may not have been a more stunning game this season than when Oregon thoroughly punished USC on Saturday, 47-20.

The Ducks, now arguably the hottest team in the land, move up three spots to No. 5 and are now beating all FBS opponents more than 94 percent of the time in 100 simulations against each team. Most notably, Oregon jumps Boise State, the only team that has beaten the Ducks this season.

The USC Trojans drop, but just seven spots to No. 11, where they are beating their opponents 87.1 percent of the time.

While the winner was perhaps less surprising, the score in Texas and Oklahoma State's showdown was certainly underwhelming considering the circumstances.

As a result of Texas' 41-14 thrashing, the Longhorns move up three spots and are now the second-ranked team in the country. Texas is easily the highest-scoring team in the simulations, scoring more than 51 points per game and is only 0.2 percentage points behind top-ranked Florida in terms of team winning percentage against all FBS teams.

The Cowboys tumble, but only dip 11 spots and are still in the top 25, with a 76.8 percent winning percentage, they fall to No. 21.

Biggest Gains

With a loss to Houston under its belt, a Conference USA championship might not be in the cards for SMU, but coach June Jones certainly has the Mustangs still trying to recover from the NCAA's "Death Penalty" sentence more than 20 years ago, on the right track.

A two-touchdown victory at Tulsa this weekend moves SMU to 3-1 in league play and 4-4 overall and the Mustangs jump 26 spots this week, the most of any team. SMU now ranks 76th in the country, beating FBS opponents nearly 38 percent of the time.

Minnesota is a close second to SMU, gaining 23 spots and moving up to No. 69 with a victory over Michigan State.

South Florida, which seemed to go into free fall when its undefeated start was followed by two consecutive losses, salvaged ground with a victory over West Virginia on Friday, regaining 19 spots from its previous drop and moving back into the top 25.

North Carolina, which made a statement on Thursday by taking down Virginia Tech, jumps 13 spots to 59th.

Biggest Losses

Central Michigan with just one loss, had flown under the radar this season, but had a chance to make a stand against a BCS foe in Boston College; instead, a 31-10 loss will likely relegate the Chippewas back to also-ran status for the remainder of this season.

Central Michigan also has the dubious honor this week of the biggest drop in the rankings, falling 24 spots as a result of that loss to 58th in the country.

Tulsa's home loss to SMU costs it 17 spots in the rankings, while Purdue,which looked like a completely different team against Wisconsin Saturday than it did in a victory over Ohio State,loses 15 spots to 64th.

Other notable BCS teams taking falls included Ole Miss, which drops 14 spots and West Virginia, which falls 13.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Florida Gators	-	97.7	45.6	6.5
2.	Texas Longhorns	+3	97.5	51.6	7.6
3.	TCU Horned Frogs	-	95.6	46.4	10.0
4.	Alabama Crimson Tide	-2	95.1	43.0	8.0
5.	Oregon Ducks	+3	94.6	44.5	8.4
6.	Cincinnati Bearcats	-	93.6	46.1	11.8
7.	Boise State Broncos	-	92.7	42.4	11.7
8.	Iowa Hawkeyes	+1	90.8	39.0	10.4
9.	Oklahoma Sooners	+2	90.1	37.4	11.6
10.	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	+4	89.4	47.6	20.0
11.	USC Trojans	-7	87.8	40.2	15.1
12.	Penn State Nittany Lions	-	86.1	34.7	13.1
13.	Pittsburgh Panthers	+4	85.8	38.8	15.6
14.	LSU Tigers	-1	85.4	32.0	12.1
15.	Arizona Wildcats	+4	82.4	36.4	16.5
16.	Houston Cougars	-	82.0	43.2	22.8
17.	Clemson Tigers	+3	81.2	29.5	12.1
18.	Ohio State Buckeyes	-	79.4	31.8	13.7
19.	Utah Utes	+2	78.8	32.7	15.4
20.	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	+2	77.4	38.4	21.5
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
21.	Oklahoma State Cowboys	-11	76.8	33.2	18.4
22.	California Golden Bears	+5	76.7	35.3	19.6
23.	Virginia Tech Hokies	-	75.4	33.4	19.7
24.	South Florida Bulls	+19	75.0	33.2	19.8
25.	Nevada Wolf Pack	-1	73.4	35.4	22.0
26.	Brigham Young Cougars	+2	71.4	33.0	21.7
27.	Stanford Cardinal	+8	71.2	35.1	22.6
28.	West Virginia Mountaineers	-13	70.8	31.2	18.3
29.	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	+4	69.6	29.4	19.3
30.	Missouri Tigers	+12	69.3	25.8	17.1
31.	Tennessee Volunteers	-2	69.0	25.1	14.8
32.	Fresno State Bulldogs	-6	68.3	35.0	23.5
33.	Oregon State Beavers	-1	68.2	28.8	20.3
34.	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	+11	66.6	27.9	18.4
35.	Texas Tech Red Raiders	+6	66.6	26.3	18.7
36.	Nebraska Cornhuskers	+3	66.1	25.0	16.8
37.	Arkansas Razorbacks	-	65.8	35.0	24.6
38.	Wisconsin Badgers	+9	64.7	27.1	19.3
39.	Mississippi Rebels	-14	63.2	26.9	19.9
40.	Kansas Jayhawks	+10	62.3	26.8	20.4
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
41.	Connecticut Huskies	-11	62.1	25.4	18.9
42.	Auburn Tigers	+11	62.0	28.8	21.5
43.	South Carolina Gamecocks	-5	61.2	24.0	18.0
44.	Florida State Seminoles	+2	61.0	31.1	25.4
45.	Idaho Vandals	-1	60.1	30.4	25.2
46.	Boston College Eagles	+11	60.0	22.7	18.6
47.	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	+9	59.5	26.1	21.3
48.	Texas A&M Aggies	+3	59.3	27.1	21.9
49.	Michigan State Spartans	-13	59.2	25.7	20.3
50.	Kansas State Wildcats	-10	58.6	24.1	20.1
51.	Air Force Falcons	-20	58.2	22.6	19.0
52.	Temple Owls	+2	57.9	23.4	18.5
53.	Troy Trojans	+5	56.8	25.9	22.5
54.	Arizona State Sun Devils	+6	55.3	20.0	18.8
55.	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	+10	54.2	23.6	21.7
56.	Georgia Bulldogs	-4	52.0	22.3	22.4
57.	Utah State Aggies	-2	51.5	25.3	24.8
58.	Central Michigan Chippewas	-24	51.4	23.3	22.2
59.	North Carolina Tar Heels	+13	51.0	17.5	17.6
60.	Navy Midshipmen	-12	50.5	21.6	22.8
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
61.	Mississippi State Bulldogs	+9	46.1	22.1	24.0
62.	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	-3	45.6	20.4	22.7
63.	Northern Illinois Huskies	+1	45.2	21.1	24.1
64.	Purdue Boilermakers	-15	44.8	19.7	22.9
65.	East Carolina Pirates	+14	44.1	19.0	22.4
66.	Iowa State Cyclones	-5	44.1	21.5	25.6
67.	UCLA Bruins	+7	42.6	17.7	22.3
68.	Virginia Cavaliers	-5	42.2	13.2	18.5
69.	Minnesota Golden Gophers	+23	41.3	20.3	25.0
70.	Michigan Wolverines	-8	40.9	20.6	26.1
71.	Indiana Hoosiers	+5	39.9	18.8	25.2
72.	Arkansas State Red Wolves	-1	39.6	18.2	24.4
73.	North Carolina State Wolfpack	+5	38.8	18.3	24.5
74.	Kentucky Wildcats	-7	38.1	18.5	25.1
75.	Wyoming Cowboys	+2	38.0	15.1	22.2
76.	Southern Methodist Mustangs	+26	37.9	16.8	24.8
77.	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	+11	37.8	18.9	26.4
78.	Illinois Fighting Illini	+17	37.1	19.9	28.4
79.	Duke Blue Devils	+1	36.4	16.8	25.1
80.	Buffalo Bulls	-5	36.3	18.5	26.5
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
81.	Toledo Rockets	-8	36.3	19.8	28.3
82.	Ohio Bobcats	-16	35.9	14.9	22.6
83.	Baylor Bears	-15	35.8	16.6	25.1
84.	UAB Blazers	+9	33.2	20.5	29.9
85.	Washington Huskies	-	32.9	18.5	29.0
86.	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	-17	32.2	20.8	30.5
87.	Hawaii Warriors	+9	30.9	19.9	31.4
88.	Louisville Cardinals	+12	30.5	17.4	28.5
89.	Colorado Buffaloes	-8	30.4	14.7	25.2
90.	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	+11	30.0	15.8	27.7
91.	Northwestern Wildcats	-5	29.9	15.1	26.4
92.	Marshall Thundering Herd	-2	29.6	16.1	27.6
93.	UCF Knights	-6	29.6	13.4	25.4
94.	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	-5	28.5	15.3	28.8
95.	Kent State Golden Flashes	+2	28.3	12.1	25.3
96.	San Diego State Aztecs	+3	28.2	12.6	23.9
97.	Syracuse Orange	-3	28.2	13.4	26.3
98.	Western Michigan Broncos	-16	28.0	15.1	29.3
99.	UTEP Miners	-1	26.7	17.8	31.6
100.	Colorado State Rams	+6	26.3	14.8	27.4
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
101.	Florida Atlantic Owls	-17	26.1	19.0	32.4
102.	North Texas Mean Green	-11	25.8	17.5	32.6
103.	Maryland Terrapins	-	24.6	11.9	27.1
104.	Vanderbilt Commodores	-21	24.4	12.1	28.2
105.	Army Black Knights	-	22.2	11.2	27.7
106.	Ball State Cardinals	+4	21.8	13.2	31.6
107.	Memphis Tigers	-3	18.4	12.6	33.1
108.	Tulane Green Wave	+3	15.0	10.8	33.8
109.	Bowling Green Falcons	-2	13.2	10.5	33.8
110.	UNLV Rebels	-1	12.5	11.0	36.8
111.	Akron Zips	-3	10.0	8.7	33.8
112.	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	-	9.7	10.2	40.1
113.	Florida International Golden Panthers	+3	8.2	8.1	36.7
114.	New Mexico Lobos	-1	7.9	6.7	33.8
115.	Miami (OH) RedHawks	-1	7.9	7.1	35.5
116.	Washington State Cougars	-1	6.0	7.6	38.2
117.	Rice Owls	+2	5.8	7.6	38.4
118.	New Mexico State Aggies	-	5.8	6.8	38.1
119.	Eastern Michigan Eagles	+1	5.2	6.9	41.2
120.	San Jose State Spartans	-3	5.0	7.4	39.0

Ever wanted to be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to game-planning and scheduling—it is all under your control. Start at D-III and try to work your way up to winning the D-I championship at your favorite school.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games.

With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

Week 10 College Football Picks From WhatIfSports.com

WhatIfSports.com — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:51:18 -0500

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: #14 LSU 14 @ #4 Alabama 22
Week 10 lacks the multitude of compelling matchups we've seen over the past few weeks. But one game should make up for it as it features two of the top 15 teams in our most recent power rankings and could play a large role in deciding who plays for the national championship.

For Alabama, it's a chance to stay undefeated against a ranked team and if the Tide can get past the toughest team left on its schedule, a date with Florida in the SEC Championship Game will be all but set in stone.

But LSU could jump back into the SEC title picture, getting another chance to take down an unbeaten league foe late in the season. A victory puts the Tigers in a tie with Bama in the SEC South standings and could set up a Tigers/Gators rematch.

With two of the top defenses in the country, it will likely be a low-scoring, one-possession game.

Alabama had a week off to recover from a near-upset against Tennessee two weeks ago. The Crimson Tide rank second in the country defensively in yards allowed per game, giving up 3.82, and are one of just four teams in the country giving up less than four. The Tide have given up just 19 points in their last three games combined and have held opponents under 10 points four different times this season. Bama ranks second in rushing offense, allowing just 2.23 yards per carry. And while they're 20th in the country in passing yards per game, they also rank in the top five in terms of passing yardage per attempt at just 5.20 yards. Paced by Mark Ingram, who has already eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark, the Tide's offense flies under the radar a bit. At 5.31 yards per carry, Alabama ranks in the top 10 there as well. And while Greg McElroy and the passing attack doesn't jump off the page, Bama is still averaging more than seven yards per attempt.

That offense will be matched up against a comparably solid LSU defense. The Tigers drubbed Tulane 42-0 on Saturday and have outscored opponents 73-10 in two games since losing to top-ranked Florida. The Tigers have allowed 10 points or less on five separate occasions this season. They're giving up just 3.21 yards per carry and 5.65 yards per pass attempt, combining to form a top-20 defense that's giving up just 4.36 yards per play. Like the Tide, the Tigers' defense doesn't have many individual standouts defensively - at least statistically - but units that strong aren't relying on individuals. On offense, it's all about balance for LSU. Jordan Jefferson has thrown for more than 1,400 yards and is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt this season, most of them going to Terrance Toliver or Brandon LaFell. But you have to search a bit to find the Tigers' rushing and passing offense when looking at the FBS statistics, and LSU will have a tall task getting that unit untracked against Bama's defense.

Alabama's strong play and undefeated mark to this season have seen them stretch their margin of victory just slightly compared to our preseason prediction, but the home-standing Tide are still the favorites. Once a six-point favorite, Alabama now wins this game by eight points, 22-14, and wins the matchups 66.2% of the time over 10,000 simulations.

Other Notable Games in Week 10
In the pre-season , we predicted that Penn State and Ohio State would play this week's Matchup of the Week, but instead of this game deciding the Big Ten champion, it will only decide which team remains in the race. With Iowa undefeated and out front, the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes - who each have one league loss - have taken a back seat. With Ohio State still on its schedule, Iowa will be looking for a Penn State victory, as a head-to-head victory over the Nittany Lions would put the Hawkeyes in great position to win the league. Ohio State had the advantage in the preseason, but host Penn State now wins 56.7% of the time and by a score of 23-17.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, the Hawkeyes remain undefeated more than 78% of the time, outscoring visiting Northwestern by 11 points. And Wisconsin, looking to move to 7-2, wins on the road at Indiana more than 88% of the time.

In the ACC, upstart Georgia Tech remains one of the hottest teams in the country by beating Wake Forest at an 81.1% clip. And Clemson - quietly moving up amongst the nation's best teams - takes care of Florida State 70.6%, but by single digits.

In the Big East - which moved ahead of the Big 12 to take the #2 spot in our most recent conference power rankings this week - Cincinnati remains unbeaten against Connecticut 75.1% of the time and by a score of 31-19. West Virginia rebounds from its loss to USF by beating Louisville 82.6% of the time and Pittsburgh moves to 8-1 95% of the time with a victory over Syracuse.

And the rest of the current undefeated teams - Florida, Texas, TCU and Boise State - are all virtual locks to remain that way going into Week 10. They all win their games the maximum 95% of the time.

To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week , as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

College Football Week 10
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	18.9	24
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	81.1	37
Virginia Cavaliers	26.4	13
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	73.6	23
Florida State Seminoles	29.4	19
@ Clemson Tigers	70.6	28
Duke Blue Devils	29.9	12
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	70.1	20
Maryland Terrapins	34.8	14
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	65.2	21
Syracuse Orange	5.0	10
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	95.0	35
Louisville Cardinals	17.4	14
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	82.6	31
Connecticut Huskies	24.9	19
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	75.1	31
Western Michigan Broncos	17.4	13
@ Michigan State Spartans	82.6	27
Northwestern Wildcats	21.4	15
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	78.6	26
Ohio State Buckeyes	43.3	17
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	56.7	23
Purdue Boilermakers	47.8	21
@ Michigan Wolverines	52.2	24
Illinois Fighting Illini	55.7	27
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	44.3	26
Wisconsin Badgers	88.1	28
@ Indiana Hoosiers	11.9	15
Eastern Michigan Eagles	10.4	12
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	89.6	32
Miami (OH) RedHawks	13.4	10
@ Temple Owls	86.6	26
Bowling Green Falcons	21.9	14
@ Buffalo Bulls	78.1	27
Kent State Golden Flashes	80.1	26
@ Akron Zips	19.9	17
Washington State Cougars	5.0	8
@ Arizona Wildcats	95.0	43
Oregon State Beavers	40.3	26
@ California Golden Bears	59.7	31
Washington Huskies	40.8	17
@ UCLA Bruins	59.2	22
USC Trojans	85.6	29
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	14.4	15
Oregon Ducks	90.0	34
@ Stanford Cardinal	10.0	18
Vanderbilt Commodores	5.0	8
@ Florida Gators	95.0	48
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles	5.0	7
@ Georgia Bulldogs	95.0	35
Eastern Kentucky Colonels	5.0	9
@ Kentucky Wildcats	95.0	31
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	5.0	8
@ Mississippi Rebels	95.0	41
Furman Paladins	5.0	9
@ Auburn Tigers	95.0	45
Memphis Tigers	5.0	9
@ Tennessee Volunteers	95.0	30
LSU Tigers	33.8	14
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	66.2	22
South Carolina Gamecocks	50.2	28
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	49.8	26
Utah State Aggies	43.3	26
@ Hawaii Warriors	56.7	31
Fresno State Bulldogs	63.2	36
@ Idaho Vandals	36.8	33
Nevada Wolf Pack	95.0	45
@ San Jose State Spartans	5.0	13
Boise State Broncos	95.0	42
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	5.0	14
Navy Midshipmen	22.9	23
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	77.1	35
Troy Trojans	95.0	33
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	5.0	12
UCF Knights	5.0	8
@ Texas Longhorns	95.0	37
Baylor Bears	16.4	14
@ Missouri Tigers	83.6	28
Kansas Jayhawks	73.1	26
@ Kansas State Wildcats	26.9	19
Texas A&M Aggies	78.1	27
@ Colorado Buffaloes	21.9	18
Oklahoma State Cowboys	80.6	34
@ Iowa State Cyclones	19.4	23
Oklahoma Sooners	86.1	25
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	13.9	14
Rice Owls	30.3	27
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	69.7	35
Florida Atlantic Owls	36.3	25
@ UAB Blazers	63.7	32
UTEP Miners	75.6	26
@ Tulane Green Wave	24.4	18
Virginia Tech Hokies	80.1	30
@ East Carolina Pirates	19.9	19
Houston Cougars	91.0	47
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	9.0	30
New Mexico Lobos	5.0	8
@ Utah Utes	95.0	36
Army Black Knights	32.3	14
@ Air Force Falcons	67.7	22
Colorado State Rams	70.1	23
@ UNLV Rebels	29.9	17
Brigham Young Cougars	88.1	31
@ Wyoming Cowboys	11.9	16
TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	43
@ San Diego State Aztecs	5.0	6
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	29.4	15
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	70.6	25
Florida International Golden Panthers	44.8	20
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	55.2	24
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	83.1	28
@ North Texas Mean Green	16.9	18

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to game planning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!

Week Eight Fantasy Football Projections

WhatIfSports.com — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:04:48 -0400

To view a pop-up with positional rankings, please click on one of the links below. Good luck this season!

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver	Tight End
Kicker	Team Defense	Individual Defense

	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
1.	Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	Raiders	22.1
2.	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	Vikings	20.8
3.	Kurt Warner	QB	Cardinals	Panthers	20.5
4.	Peyton Manning	QB	Colts	49ers	20.4
5.	Drew Brees	QB	Saints	Falcons	20.1
6.	Matt Schaub	QB	Texans	Bills	18.1
7.	Steven Jackson	RB	Rams	Lions	18.0
8.	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jaguars	Titans	17.7
9.	Jay Cutler	QB	Bears	Browns	17.5
10.	David Garrard	QB	Jaguars	Titans	17.5
11.	Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	Seahawks	17.3
12.	Adrian Peterson	RB	Vikings	Packers	16.8
13.	Chris Johnson	RB	Titans	Jaguars	16.1
14.	Ryan Grant	RB	Packers	Vikings	15.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
15.	Brett Favre	QB	Vikings	Packers	15.4
16.	Donovan McNabb	QB	Eagles	Giants	15.4
17.	Kyle Orton	QB	Broncos	Ravens	15.3
18.	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	Seahawks	Cowboys	15.1
19.	Joe Flacco	QB	Ravens	Broncos	14.8
20.	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	Browns	14.4
21.	Vince Young	QB	Titans	Jaguars	14.4
22.	LeSean McCoy	RB	Eagles	Giants	13.8
23.	Steve Slaton	RB	Texans	Bills	13.7
24.	Kevin Smith	RB	Lions	Rams	13.6
25.	Marion Barber	RB	Cowboys	Seahawks	13.4
26.	Marc Bulger	QB	Rams	Lions	13.3
27.	Ronnie Brown	RB	Dolphins	Jets	13.0
28.	Daunte Culpepper	QB	Lions	Rams	12.8
29.	Frank Gore	RB	49ers	Colts	12.8
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
30.	Eli Manning	QB	Giants	Eagles	12.8
31.	Ray Rice	RB	Ravens	Broncos	12.7
32.	Vincent Jackson	WR	Chargers	Raiders	12.7
33.	Matt Ryan	QB	Falcons	Saints	12.7
34.	Alex Smith	QB	49ers	Colts	12.5
35.	Mark Sanchez	QB	Jets	Dolphins	12.4
36.	Thomas Jones	RB	Jets	Dolphins	12.2
37.	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Panthers	Cardinals	12.1
38.	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Cardinals	Panthers	12.1
39.	Sidney Rice	WR	Vikings	Packers	12.0
40.	Reggie Wayne	WR	Colts	49ers	12.0
41.	Felix Jones	RB	Cowboys	Seahawks	11.7
42.	Darren Sproles	RB	Chargers	Raiders	11.4
43.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	Bills	Texans	11.4
44.	Marques Colston	WR	Saints	Falcons	11.4
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
45.	Donald Driver	WR	Packers	Vikings	11.4
46.	Ricky Williams	RB	Dolphins	Jets	11.3
47.	Miles Austin	WR	Cowboys	Seahawks	11.3
48.	Beanie Wells	RB	Cardinals	Panthers	11.3
49.	Antonio Gates	TE	Chargers	Raiders	11.2
50.	Brandon Jacobs	RB	Giants	Eagles	11.2
51.	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Broncos	Ravens	11.1
52.	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Chargers	Raiders	11.1
53.	Joseph Addai	RB	Colts	49ers	10.9
54.	Shonn Greene	RB	Jets	Dolphins	10.6
55.	Andre Johnson	WR	Texans	Bills	10.5
56.	DeSean Jackson	WR	Eagles	Giants	10.3
57.	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers	Vikings	10.2
58.	Justin Fargas	RB	Raiders	Chargers	10.0
59.	Chad Henne	QB	Dolphins	Jets	10.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
60.	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Bills	Texans	9.9
61.	Michael Turner	RB	Falcons	Saints	9.9
62.	Nate Kaeding	K	Chargers	Raiders	9.8
63.	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Giants	Eagles	9.7
64.	Brandon Marshall	WR	Broncos	Ravens	9.6
65.	Owen Daniels	TE	Texans	Bills	9.5
66.	Jake Delhomme	QB	Panthers	Cardinals	9.4
67.	Devin Hester	WR	Bears	Browns	9.4
68.	Tim Hightower	RB	Cardinals	Panthers	9.3
69.	Steve Smith	WR	Panthers	Cardinals	9.3
70.	John Carney	K	Saints	Falcons	9.3
71.	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	Jaguars	Titans	9.2
72.	Pierre Thomas	RB	Saints	Falcons	9.1
73.	Julius Jones	RB	Seahawks	Cowboys	9.1
74.	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers	Colts	9.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
75.	Neil Rackers	K	Cardinals	Panthers	9.0
76.	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Saints	Falcons	9.0
77.	JaMarcus Russell	QB	Raiders	Chargers	8.9
78.	Steve Smith	WR	Giants	Eagles	8.9
79.	Nick Folk	K	Cowboys	Seahawks	8.9
80.	Lee Evans	WR	Bills	Texans	8.9
81.	Jamal Lewis	RB	Browns	Bears	8.8
82.	Derek Anderson	QB	Browns	Bears	8.7
83.	Justin Forsett	RB	Seahawks	Cowboys	8.7
84.	Dallas Clark	TE	Colts	49ers	8.6
85.	Michael Bush	RB	Raiders	Chargers	8.5
86.	David Akers	K	Eagles	Giants	8.4
87.	Robbie Gould	K	Bears	Browns	8.3
88.	Mike Bell	RB	Saints	Falcons	8.3
89.	Matt Stover	K	Colts	49ers	8.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
90.	Torry Holt	WR	Jaguars	Titans	8.2
91.	Matt Prater	K	Broncos	Ravens	8.2
92.	Nate Burleson	WR	Seahawks	Cowboys	8.1
93.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	Seahawks	Cowboys	8.1
94.	Josh Scobee	K	Jaguars	Titans	8.1
95.	Rob Bironas	K	Titans	Jaguars	8.1
96.	Ryan Longwell	K	Vikings	Packers	7.9
97.	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints	Falcons	7.9
98.	Lawrence Tynes	K	Giants	Eagles	7.8
99.	Anquan Boldin	WR	Cardinals	Panthers	7.8
100.	Jason Hanson	K	Lions	Rams	7.8
101.	Correll Buckhalter	RB	Broncos	Ravens	7.7
102.	Kenny Britt	WR	Titans	Jaguars	7.7
103.	Kris Brown	K	Texans	Bills	7.7
104.	Josh Brown	K	Rams	Lions	7.7
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
105.	Mason Crosby	K	Packers	Vikings	7.7
106.	John Kasay	K	Panthers	Cardinals	7.6
107.	Roddy White	WR	Falcons	Saints	7.6
108.	Steve Breaston	WR	Cardinals	Panthers	7.4
109.	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Jets	Dolphins	7.4
110.	Jason Witten	TE	Cowboys	Seahawks	7.4
111.	Chargers	DEF		Raiders	7.4
112.	Cardinals	DEF		Panthers	7.3
113.	Joe Nedney	K	49ers	Colts	7.3
114.	Hakeem Nicks	WR	Giants	Eagles	7.3
115.	Mario Manningham	WR	Giants	Eagles	7.2
116.	Broncos	DEF		Ravens	7.1
117.	Dan Carpenter	K	Dolphins	Jets	7.1
118.	Devery Henderson	WR	Saints	Falcons	7.0
119.	Earl Bennett	WR	Bears	Browns	7.0
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
120.	Pierre Garcon	WR	Colts	49ers	7.0
121.	Jay Feely	K	Jets	Dolphins	6.9
122.	Steven Hauschka	K	Ravens	Broncos	6.9
123.	LenDale White	RB	Titans	Jaguars	6.9
124.	Jason Elam	K	Falcons	Saints	6.9
125.	David Clowney	WR	Jets	Dolphins	6.8
126.	Sebastian Janikowski	K	Raiders	Chargers	6.8
127.	Brent Celek	TE	Eagles	Giants	6.8
128.	Jason Snelling	RB	Falcons	Saints	6.7
129.	Browns	DEF		Bears	6.7
130.	Bills	DEF		Texans	6.7
131.	Nate Washington	WR	Titans	Jaguars	6.6
132.	Louis Murphy	WR	Raiders	Chargers	6.6
133.	Donnie Avery	WR	Rams	Lions	6.6
134.	Bears	DEF		Browns	6.5
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
135.	Tony Gonzalez	TE	Falcons	Saints	6.5
136.	Eagles	DEF		Giants	6.4
137.	Rian Lindell	K	Bills	Texans	6.4
138.	Cowboys	DEF		Seahawks	6.4
139.	Derrick Mason	WR	Ravens	Broncos	6.3
140.	John Carlson	TE	Seahawks	Cowboys	6.3
141.	Saints	DEF		Falcons	6.3
142.	Olindo Mare	K	Seahawks	Cowboys	6.3
143.	Donald Lee	TE	Packers	Vikings	6.2
144.	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	Browns	Bears	6.2
145.	Billy Cundiff	K	Browns	Bears	6.2
146.	Jerome Harrison	RB	Browns	Bears	6.2
147.	Bryant Johnson	WR	Lions	Rams	6.1
148.	Danny Amendola	WR	Rams	Lions	6.0
149.	Percy Harvin	WR	Vikings	Packers	5.9
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
150.	Texans	DEF		Bills	5.9
151.	Mark Clayton	WR	Ravens	Broncos	5.9
152.	Kevin Walter	WR	Texans	Bills	5.8
153.	Ravens	DEF		Broncos	5.8
154.	Josh Morgan	WR	49ers	Colts	5.7
155.	Todd Heap	TE	Ravens	Broncos	5.7
156.	Colts	DEF		49ers	5.7
157.	Dolphins	DEF		Jets	5.7
158.	Malcom Floyd	WR	Chargers	Raiders	5.6
159.	Jets	DEF		Dolphins	5.6
160.	Brian Hartline	WR	Dolphins	Jets	5.5
161.	Vikings	DEF		Packers	5.5
162.	Michael Jenkins	WR	Falcons	Saints	5.5
163.	Greg Olsen	TE	Bears	Browns	5.4
164.	Braylon Edwards	WR	Jets	Dolphins	5.3
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
165.	Austin Collie	WR	Colts	49ers	5.3
166.	Garrett Wolfe	RB	Bears	Browns	5.2
167.	Davone Bess	WR	Dolphins	Jets	5.2
168.	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	Giants	5.1
169.	Packers	DEF		Vikings	5.1
170.	Dennis Northcutt	WR	Lions	Rams	5.0
171.	Giants	DEF		Eagles	4.9
172.	Dustin Keller	TE	Jets	Dolphins	4.9
173.	Willis McGahee	RB	Ravens	Broncos	4.8
174.	Donald Brown	RB	Colts	49ers	4.7
175.	Zach Miller	TE	Raiders	Chargers	4.7
176.	Michael Crabtree	WR	49ers	Colts	4.7
177.	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Panthers	Cardinals	4.7
178.	Leonard Weaver	RB	Eagles	Giants	4.7
179.	Eddie Royal	WR	Broncos	Ravens	4.6
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
180.	Lions	DEF		Rams	4.6
181.	Terrell Owens	WR	Bills	Texans	4.6
182.	Fred Jackson	RB	Bills	Texans	4.5
183.	Jerome Felton	RB	Lions	Rams	4.5
184.	Eldra Buckley	RB	Eagles	Giants	4.4
185.	Greg Camarillo	WR	Dolphins	Jets	4.4
186.	Falcons	DEF		Saints	4.3
187.	Randy McMichael	TE	Rams	Lions	4.3
188.	Rams	DEF		Lions	4.3
189.	Jabar Gaffney	WR	Broncos	Ravens	4.3
190.	49ers	DEF		Colts	4.3
191.	Jaguars	DEF		Titans	4.2
192.	Johnny Knox	WR	Bears	Browns	4.2
193.	Muhsin Muhammad	WR	Panthers	Cardinals	4.2
194.	Keenan Burton	WR	Rams	Lions	4.2
	Name	Pos	Team	Opp	Points
195.	Tashard Choice	RB	Cowboys	Seahawks	4.2
196.	Raiders	DEF		Chargers	4.2
197.	Chris Brown	RB	Texans	Bills	4.2
198.	Panthers	DEF		Cardinals	4.1
199.	Greg Lewis	WR	Vikings	Packers	4.0
200.	Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Lions	Rams	4.0

* The individual players and defensive teams are ranked based entirely on projected full-season fantasy points using the FOX Fantasy Football default scoring where for QBs, RBs, WRs and TE, all TDs are six points , each 25 yards passing are one point , interceptions are -two points , fumbles lost are -two points , each ten yards receiving are one point and two-point conversions are two points . For kickers, all extra points are one point and all field goals are at least three points with an extra bonus point for field goals made over 40 yards and another bonus point for field goals made over 50 yards . Individual defensive players (linked to below, but not included in overall rankings) earn one point for each solo tackle , one point for each sack , two points for each interception and six points for each touchdown . Team defenses include special teams and are treated similarly for sacks, interceptions and touchdown returns, while a more complex system, based on the outcome of each individual game, is utilized for points allowed per game.

Please note: These overall fantasy rankings are based on total points earned for the season. They do not account for position scarcity, number of owners drafting and their drafting styles, roster restrictions, custom league scoring rules or other items that should be considered while drafting.

Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all-time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete against others in the SimLeagues .

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com . Thanks!