Bleacher Report - Articles by Clark Fosler

How Does Kansas City's Catching Stack up?

Clark Fosler — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 10:48:30 -0400

Today, we begin a series of columns in which I will examine the Royals versus their Central Division comrades on a position by position basis in an attempt to determine just how close (or how far) this team is from truly contending in the division.

We will start with the catchers and examine the offensive production each team enjoyed (or endured) in 2009:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
KC	.269	.309	.502	.811
CHI	.281	.322	.413	.735
CLE	.228	.333	.374	.707
DET	.215	.294	.326	.620
MIN	.337	.412	.510	.921

Obviously, Minnesota enjoys a huge advantage over the rest of the division as long as they have Joe Mauer catching for them (as an aside, given the premium position he plays, is Joe Mauer the best player in baseball right now?).

After the Twins, however, the Royals' catchers stack up fairly well against the rest of the division, especially with the departures of Victor Martinez from Cleveland and Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers. Let's take a look at a few more offensive numbers:

	wRC	2B	HR	BB	SO
KC	86	32	31	30	168
CHI	73	28	17	36	84
CLE	74	33	16	75	144
DET	50	29	9	53	117
MIN	126	35	23	81	79

Again, after Mauer and the Twins, the Royals catching trioka created more runs than anyone else in the division.

Yes, Olivo-Buck-Pena struck out at a tremendous rate and walked little, but they made up for it (at least partially) by showing more power than anyone that was not born and playing in Minnesota.

Catching is not all offense. In fact, it is probably the least offensively important position on the diamond.

While the above offensive numbers are for every player that put on the tools of ignorance for a given team in 2009 (and none of the games, by the way, wherein they played a different position), the defensive statistics below are for just the players who finished the season with a team and are likely to be contributors for that same team next year.

		Caught Stealing %	Wild Pitches+Passed Balls/Game
Olivo	KC	23.3%	.692
Buck	KC	16.3%	.417
Pena	KC	19.1%	.885
Pierzynski	CHI	16.8%	.416
Castro	CHI	11.5%	.245
Shoppach	CLE	21.0%	.442
Marson	CLE	40.0%	.146
Laird	DET	40.4%	.371
Avila	DET	26.7%	.528
Mauer	MIN	23.9%	.307

A quick look at the numbers reveal that both Miguel Olivo and Brayan Pena (albeit in limited duty) have some serious issues when it comes to blocking pitches.

Next to the White Sox, the trio of Royals catchers were the poorest at throwing out potential basestealers, although not by a dramatic amount. Still, coupled with the very high wild pitches-passed balls per game marks, Kansas City enjoyed less than stellar defense behind the plate in 2009.

The Conclusion

If the Royals had a slew of dynamic offensive forces in their lineup, then they could afford to dump Olivo and Buck and go out and sign an offensively-challenged catcher with a great defensive reputation.

However, we know that Kansas City does not enjoy such a luxury. Additionally, the options in the offseason are limited both by the free agent crop and by the financial situation of the organization.

It would be nice to have seen Brayan Pena catch 80 games this year and be able to make an educated guess as to whether he can improve enough behind the plate to be an everyday catcher, but that window of opportunity came and went.

In the end, the Royals can at least hang their hats on the fact that outside of Minnesota, no other team is particularly strong at catcher either.

In that respect, one can make the case that other areas might need more attention this offseason as Kansas City tries to get back into the American League Central conversation.

Trading Joakim Soria: Deal with Phillies Could Net Solid Haul for Royals

Clark Fosler — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:04:07 -0400

On Wednesday, I offered up the theory of trading Joakim Soria to build a better future base for the Kansas City Royals.

It could be sheer lunacy to consider moving either the second or third best player on the roster—one who is signed to a long-term deal for reasonable money and a player who, frankly, may not even be in his prime yet.

Some of you commented that while the theory might make at least some sense, you simply did not trust Dayton Moore to make the right call on the players to be received in return. I cannot argue with that trepidation, not even a little.

However, for fun, let's take Moore out of the equation and, using the three trades detailed on Wednesday as a guide, examine one potential trade option.

Those three trades we talked about involved a rehabbing Eric Gagne, free agent to be Jose Valverde, and George Sherrill. Without sounding too biased, Soria is better than any of those three at the point in time they were traded. He is in a better contract situation, has a better track record, and is pitching RIGHT NOW better than any of those three were.

That said, I think one can logically assume that Soria would net more in return than what the market granted for those three closers.

Okay, so who is the trading partner?

In looking around the league, I considered only teams that are going to make the playoffs or are in contention to do so this season (and hence might believe they are just "one player away" from making the playoffs next year).

Truthfully, there are a number of teams that might consider an upgrade at closer, and I intend to explore some others later, but one really screamed out to me: Philadelphia.

The Phillies' closer right now is Brad Lidge. He has a 7.48 earned run average and a WHIP of 1.861. While we in Kansas City fully understand how overvalued win-loss records are for pitchers, you have to put some stock in those numbers when a closer has ZERO wins and EIGHT losses.

Lidge has been bad enough for the Phils to start thinking about using Chan Ho Park to finish games.

Now, Philadelphia will make the playoffs and might win the Series anyway, but don't tell me they want to go into 2010 relying on Lidge...or Park...or anyone else. They are a team built to win now, next year, and the year after that.

They have three outfielders (Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino) who are all really good and two exceptional outfield prospects in the minors.

Anyone smell a match here?

Keeping in mind that Ibanez will someday show his age and that, as good as he is, Joakim Soria is "just a reliever," the Royals will not pry both Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown away from Philadelphia. They might be able to get one of them, however.

Both Brown (the preseason No. 1 prospect of the organization) and Taylor (preseason No. 6) are big, athletic outfielders with pop and tons of potential. At 21 years old, Brown went .299/.377/.504 split between High A and AA ball this year. Taylor, two years older, went .320/.395/.549 split between AA and AAA.

My guess is that Brown still remains the better prospect, so I would be happy to propose the Phillies send over Taylor as part of this deal. He might not be ready to play every day next spring but likely would be in the majors no later than next summer—at which point he would likely already be the team's best outfielder.

Along with Taylor, just for tradition's sake, the Phillies would send along outfielder John Mayberry Jr. He hit .200 in limited major league duty this year and just .256/.332/.456 in AAA action.

At age 25, the junior Mayberry is probably not a prospect any longer, but not so old to completely call him washed-up either. He would be a decent risk for an organization like the Royals without much potential help at the AAA level.

The haul of Taylor and Mayberry is still a little light (both in my opinion and based upon past trades), so let's throw 24-year-old pitcher Alexander Concepcion into the deal.

The right-hander compiled a 3.21 ERA split between AA and AAA this year, sporting a strikeout to walk ratio of over four to one at both levels. He is a control pitcher, not a strikeout guy, who has split time between the pen and starting.

Again, not a great prospect, but he has enough of a track record to be useful at the back of the rotation or in middle relief.

So the question is twofold: Is this a reasonably logical trade, and would you do it?

Fixing the Royals: Start with Trading Joakim Soria

Clark Fosler — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 10:47:14 -0400

Tuesday on SportsRadioKC, Craig and I discussed the idea of trading Royals' closer Joakim Soria.

As an aside, I assume at some point you will be able to access an archive of our show on that Web site. They are just getting started and do not have everything all "squared away" yet. Hopefully an archive will become available: It was simply one of the three best radio shows I have been involved in this season...of course, I've only been on three times, but still.

Until a few months ago, I would have called the idea of trading Soria simply ludicrous. After all, he is the team's second-best pitcher without a doubt, a premier closer in the league, and a young player signed to a very favorable long-term deal.

He is one of probably just three players on this team (Zack Greinke and Billy Butler are the others) that you could put on any roster in either league and they would be equally as valuable to another team as they are to the Royals.

After a little tidbit over at MLBTradeRumors mentioned that "baseball sources" believe the Royals could extract two or even three good young players in exchange for Soria, my opinion began to change.

If you discount Kila Kaaihue (because, after all, the organization certainly has), then the only possible offensive reinforcements in the high minors are Jordan Parraz (who has one season above A ball and can't stay healthy), Jeff Bianchi, and David Lough (both of whom have just half a season in AA on their resumes).

If there is an organization crying out for high-level offensive prospects, it is the Royals.

With little money to spend in free agency this offseason, Kansas City has very little hope of making the type of additions that will get them into contention for 2010. You can make a very real case that Joakim Soria is actually more valuable to a team in or on the verge of contending next year than he will be to the Royals.

Is this a chance for the Royals to infuse much needed offensive talent into their organization?

In the fantasy world that resides inside my head, this is a no-brainer. You trade Soria for a major league-ready outfielder and two top prospects who are likely to make the majors by next summer.

By next fall, the Royals have added three young regulars to its anemic lineup to team with budding star Billy Butler and ever-steady David DeJesus. Plus, with any luck, both Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer will have ended solid years in AA and be poised to join the big club by sometime in mid to late 2011.

Given the bevy of arms in the Royals organization—I can reel off five names that could be potential closers by 2011 without even dipping into the deep cache of young starters in A ball—would not the team be far better off under this scenario than it would hanging on to Soria and winning 75 games in 2010 instead of 68?

Of course, there are no other general managers in my head, so it makes it pretty easy to manufacture a deal that brings the Royals back to prominence. Given that, let's take a look at some past "closer deals" to see just what sort of return a team actually received.

Eric Gagne to the Red Sox—Summer 2007

At this point in his career, Gagne was coming off a lost year due to injury and had signed a one year deal with Rangers to prove he was healthy. Given that, he does not really compare with Soria, but he was still a once dominant closer who did have 16 saves and a 2.16 ERA for the Rangers at the time of the trade.

In return for Gagne, the Rangers received 17-year-old Engel Beltre, who was and still is considered a possible future star. At the time, Beltre was in the midst of just his second season of rookie ball.

Texas also received 25 year-old lefty Kason Gabbard, who had compiled a 3.64 ERA in 67 big league innings and had a 3.24 AAA earned run average on his ledger prior to being called up. At the time, Gabbard looked like a solid, if unspectacular starter.

Also included was the Red Sox's first-round pick from the 2003 draft, David Murphy. At the time, the 25-year-old outfielder had put up a AAA line of .280/.347/.423 in 100 games after posting a .766 OPS split between AA and AAA in 2006.

Since the trade, Murphy has put up a DeJesus-like .809 OPS in 266 games for Texas.

Jose Valverde to the Astros—Winter 2007

At the time of this trade, Valverde was 27 years old and coming off a 47 save-2.66 ERA season for Arizona.

In return, the Diamondbacks got 27-year-old utility man Chris Burke, a former No. 1 pick in the 2000 draft. Burke had compiled a .249/.319/.359 line over four seasons with the Astros, but could pretty much play anywhere. He has since become unemployable due to non-production, but at the time, I guess you could say he was kind of a "Willie Bloomquist type."

Also involved in the trade was Houston's then No. 5 prospect: 23-year-old right hander Juan Gutierrez.

He had sniffed 21 major league innings and posted a 4.15 ERA in 156 AAA innings in 2007. The year prior, Gutierrez had struck out a batter per inning in AA on his way to a 3.04 ERA in 104 innings of work.

At the time, there was an expectation that Gutierrez was either ready or nearly ready to take a spot squarely in the middle of the Diamondbacks' rotation.

The final piece of the trade was 28-year-old reliever Chad Qualls. A former second-round pick in 2000, Qualls had posted a 3.39 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 284 major league innings.

He was coming off a third straight good season—in fact, Chad's 2005 through 2007 run was one of the most consistent for a middle reliever I have ever run across—but had never closed.

It is noteworthy, however, in analyzing this trade, to remember that 2008 would be Valverde's final year before free agency and the Diamondbacks were not in a money spending mode. Without a doubt, that reduced the value they received in exchange for Jose.

George Sherrill to the Dodgers—Summer 2009

Okay, let's get one thing straight here: Joakim Soria is better than George Sherrill. Not only that, but the Dodgers were trading not for Sherrill the closer, but for Sherrill the set up guy.

That said, Baltimore still got the Dodgers' No. 8 prospect, Josh Bell, and 21-year-old right handed starter Steve Johnson.

Bell was in AA at the time of the trade and had slugged 43 extra base hits in 94 games on his way to a .296/.386/.497 line. Overall, the 22-year-old sported a career minor league OPS of .841.

While there is/was some debate about whether Josh can stick at third base defensively, he is viewed as a real possibility to be a middle of the order major league bat.

Johnson was not one of the Dodgers' prime pitching prospects, but he still had put up a 3.82 ERA in 97 Advanced A innings and struck out 15 batters in his first 11 innings of AA ball this past summer.

Next Time...

This column has gone on long enough for one day, but I think it gives us something to think about heading into the offseason. Next time, I will continue this line of thought/reasoning/outright lunacy and propose some possible trading partners and what they might reasonably offer in return.

Kansas City Loves Late-Summer Teases, Royal Fans Aren't Falling for It This Year

Clark Fosler — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:12:49 -0400

The Monsters of September, a.k.a the Kansas City Royals, rolled on again this weekend, taking two of three from the Chicago White Sox. They were fueled by a complete game shutout from struggling Luke Hochevar on Friday night and six more innings of domination on Sunday from Robinson Tejeda.

The weekend's results pushed Kansas City's September record to 11-7.

Now, we have all been fooled before: exactly one year before. Just last fall, the demoralized Royals team rallied in September to roll to an 18-8 record and seemingly put the team on the road to respectability.

This year's subsequent 60-88 record is proof to not be too enthralled with what happens in the season's final month.

While Royals fans have learned that lesson the hard way when it comes to a team's overall record, does one dare trust individual statistics in September as an indication of what the future holds? Or do we view September numbers with the same skepticism as most do when it comes to spring training performances?

This becomes a particularly relevant question when it comes to someone like Tejeda, who has only tossed 22.1 innings to the tune of a 0.81 earned run average this month over four starts.

Let's take a look back at some recent notable Septembers and the following year's result.

2007

Two years ago, Jimmy Gobble pitched 10 innings in September, struck out 12, and allowed just eight hits in posting an earned run average of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.90. The following season, Jimmy allowed a WHIP of 1.96 and an ERA of 8.81.

While Gobble's September was a false indicator, two other Royals pitchers had months that did actually indicate what we could expect out of them in 2008.

Zack Greinke, who had spent much of the season in the bullpen, was back in the rotation and posted a 2.33 ERA over 27 September innings, striking out 24 along the way. He came back in 2008 and threw over 200 innings with a 3.47 ERA.

Brian Bannister, by contrast, had a horrible September of 2007. After spending much of the season in the running for Rookie of the Year honors, Bannister collapsed in September, posting a 7.30 ERA over 25 innings during which he struck out just six batters. Brian's 2008 was little better as he struggled through 32 starts with an unsightly 5.76 ERA.

On the offensive side of the game, Tony Pena Jr. hit .333 in September of 2007 and surged to an .816 OPS for the month. Those number meant absolutely nothing as TPJ was the single worst offensive player in the game in 2008 as he noddled his way to a .398 OPS in 95 games of action.

David DeJesus had a dismal September that year, hitting just .193 and slugging a meager .313. Yet he came back in 2008 and had his best year (.307/.366/.452/.818).

2008

The poster child for September skepticism is pitcher Kyle Davies. It was just last September that Davies was brilliant (31.2 innings, 2.27 ERA, just 22 hits allowed). That performance earned him the No. 3 spot in the 2009 rotation even before spring training began. After a promising couple of starts early, Davies has since struggled to a 5.27 ERA over 22 starts in 2009.

Of course, Greinke also had a great September in 2008 (2.18 ERA over 33 innings) and parlayed that into being the best pitcher in baseball in 2009.

Offensively, as much as the Royals put stock in Davies' September, they seemed to give little credence to Ryan Shealy's seven home run month and .603 slugging percentage. Given little chance to earn a job in the spring (as the Royals had traded for Mike Jacobs over the winter), Shealy returned to Omaha, got hurt, and missed all of the season's final four months.

Mark Teahen teased us with a September batting line of .313/.340/.490/.830 but fell back in 2009 to what has become his standard level of performance: .274/.328/.411/.739.

However, Billy Butler's .738 September OPS of last season gave us little indication that Billy was about to whack over 70 extra base hits in 2009 and emerge as a legitimate middle of the order bat.

2009

If anything, the brief analysis above tells us that simply looking at the last month of the season is not enough to gauge the value of a given player in the coming year.

That said, here are some big September numbers to chew on:

Robinson Tejeda: 22.1 innings with a 0.81 ERA (just nine hits allowed)

Zack Greinke: 0.45 ERA over 20 innings (not really a surprise)

Kyle Davies: 1.06 ERA in 17 innings pitched with just 10 hits allowed. CAUTION: 14 walks versus just 10 strikeouts.

Willie Bloomquist: .396/.442/.500/.942—Trey Hillman and Dayton Moore are already finding an everyday 2010 spot for him.

Billy Butler: 1.051 OPS

Alberto Callaspo: 1.073 OPS

John Buck: 1.027 OPS

Miguel Olivo: 1.216 OPS

Reason for hope? Or just another tease? Time will tell.

Kansas City Royals' Bullpen Is the Real Cause of Disasterous 2009

Clark Fosler — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 10:01:42 -0400

A few days ago, we examined the effect or non-effect of injuries with relation to a rather pitiful Royals offensive effort this season. In doing so, it appeared that the Royals might have come up thirty or so runs short of what their reasonable expectations should have been entering the 2009 campaign.

That is a problem, but not enough of one to send a team that had dreams of at least playing .500 ball into the second worst team in all of baseball, even when you factor in that the underproducing lineup is also a poor defensive squad as well.

Given the recent injuries to Gil Meche and Brian Bannister and the descent into ineffectiveness by Luke Hochevar, one might find blame in the starting rotation. The Royals, however, have been in a death spiral since mid-May: long before the rotation came apart on them.

On July 6, Meche's earned run average stood at 4.14 and that includes a four game stretch that saw him give up 17 runs in 20 innings. Brian Bannister had an earned run average below four all the way up to his start on Aug. 12. Luke Hochevar had gone six or more innings in nine out of 10 starts spanning all of June and July.

Sure, Kyle Davies, after three good starts to begin the season, had gotten so bad that he was sent down at the end of June, but that still left the Royals with four pretty quality starters for much of the first half of 2009. Keep in mind, one of those four is simply the best pitcher in the game right now (a guy named Greinke, I believe).

While the rotation's collapse in August made a bad season really bad, we can hardly blame the starters for sending the team into a fight to reach .400 baseball.

That pretty much leaves us just one place to look, doesn't it? My guess is that most of you reading this already knew the Royals bullpen was bad, but let's just reinforce that feeling with some numbers:

The 5.06 earned run average by the Royals' pen (and that includes Joakim Soria's stats) is 12th in the American League.
Having converted just 29 of 50 save opportunities, the bullpen's save percentage of 58 percent is the worst in the league and nine points below the league average.
Royals' relievers have found themselves in 99 hold situations and been credited with just 45—worst total in the league.
They have allowed 46 percent of inherited runners to score. The next worst percentage in the league is 38 percent and the league average is 34 percent.
The Royals bullpen has the fewest wins in the league (14) and an overall record of 14-24.

Those of us in the statistical community certainly bristle at won-loss records as a reflection of pitching performance. However, check out the bullpen records of the seven teams in the AL in contention for the playoffs:

NYY: 38-15, converting 77% of saves

LAA: 26-20, converting 72% of saves

DET: 25-20, converting 62% of saves

TEX: 18-18, converting 78% of saves

BOS: 26-15, converting 71% of saves

MIN: 20-20, converting 74% of saves

CWS: 22-21, converting 66% of saves

By now, you can probably see where this column is headed and I must admit that during the offseason the idea of trading a relief pitcher for an everyday player was an idea I generally agree with. Although, having watched 2009 unfold, my stance is changing by the day.

Dayton Moore shipped off Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs, whose inability to do produce at the plate as a designated hitter is THE biggest downfall of the Royals' offense, and Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp, who predictably went down with injuries in mid-May.

How different would the Royals' season be if those two trades had not happened? Would a Royals team with Mitch Maier in center all year and Kila Kaaihue at designated hitter be any worse offensively?

If Nunez and Ramirez had been kept in the fold, would the Royals felt compelled to throw too much money and too many years at a reliever in Kyle Farnsworth who cannot perform in pressure situations? Plus, would the early season injury to closer Joakim Soria have sent the pen into complete disarray if both Nunez and Ramirez were there to temporarily fill the void?

Had Farnsworth not been signed, would the Dayton Moore have had enough money to sign Orlando Hudson to a one-year deal?

With Hudson in the fold, the Royals would have had added depth in the person of Alberto Callaspo to fill the void when Alex Gordon, Crisp and Jose Guillen all went down for extended periods of time with injuries. Heck, if Kaaihue struggled on a Jacobs-esque level, the Royals could have used the iron gloved Callaspo at designated hitter.

The simple fact is that, with all that went wrong in 2009 that made the Royals a below average team, it was the bullpen that made them just plain awful. The moves made by Dayton Moore (and let's not even get into the J.P. Howell for Joey Gathright trade of a few years back) are certainly defensible, but they all backfired horribly.

Sadly, it seems as though the Royals' front office has learned more about making excuses in 2009 then they have learned from their mistakes.

Kansas City's Poor Year Due to Shabby Trade and Broke Bats, Not Injury Wealth

Clark Fosler — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:44:42 -0400

Over the past few months, we have been treated to a number of interestingcomments from within the Royals' organization. The team's best hitter, Billy Butler, has been publicly criticized for a perceived lack of proficiency in turning the rare 3-6-3 double play.

The General Manager has said, outloud mind you, that he neither understands nor believes in any of the current defensive statistical measures.

After his team traded for a center fielder, the Royals' manager spent the bulk of said player's first few weeks with the team playing him in right field due to the size of center field in Kaufmann Stadium.

Through it all, fans of the team, and especially those who dare to criticize any aspect of the organization, have been told to "trust the process" and, on more than one occasion, dismissed as simply not understanding what is happening to the Royals.

A recurring theme from the hypersensitive, it's-not-our-fault, Royals is that injuries have derailed what was otherwise set up to be a promising season.

Well, to be fair, the Royals have suffered a number of injuries to key players and unlike a big market organization like the Angels (who have had more injuries to better players and are still going to make the playoffs), Kansas City simply cannot create the kind of depth to absorb an infestation of the injury bug.

There is some validity to that argument. Had the Royals stayed healthy this season, they would not be the second worst team in the league. However, they probably still would not be contending in even the weak American League Central, either, as the organization would lead you to believe.

Let's take a look at how this team shaped up on the first day of April this season, using runs created as our measuring stick.

PLAYER	2009 RUNS CREATED	2008 RUNS CREATED
BUCK	19	40
OLIVO	42	37
B.PENA	20
BUTLER	89	51
JACOBS	48	73
CALLASPO	76	28
AVILES	6	67
T. PENA	1	9
GORDON	13	79
TEAHEN	66	66
DEJESUS	79	85
CRISP	26	53
MAIER	35
GUILLEN	30	71
BLOOMQUIST	43	22

Without delving into the nuances of playing time, the opening day roster had created 681 runs in 2008. That is actually 10 runs less than the 2008 Royals scored. Now, without questions, there were expectations to do better than that. The question is: Were those logical expectations?

Let's start with the catching position.

In 2008, John Buck and Miguel Olivo essentially split time behind the plate (although Olivo did DH some) and between the two created 77 runs. The Royals handed Olivo the starting job, along with millions of dollars, in the offseason and has created 42 runs so far in 2009.

That pace is right in line with what Olivo has done throughout his career: 37 runs in 317 plate appearances in 2008, 43 in 469 in 2007 and 51 in 452 in 2006. Expecting Olivo to do anything more than he had done in the past would have been illogical: The Royals knew or should have known what they were getting from Miguel.

Although his playing time has been greatly reduced, John Buck has chipped in 19 runs this season, creating runs at the second highest rate of his career. That is not to say that Buck deserves more playing time, but simply to point out that he too has pretty much been exactly the player the team should have expected.

Now, we could through Brayan Pena into the mix with his 20 runs created in just 157 plate appearances. I am hesitant to do so, however, given that the general manager and manager both put off promoting and playing him as long as possible and, even now, refuse to just put Pena out there everyday and let him hit.

Even though he is not "part of the process," we will include Pena here, and we find that the catching position has created 72 runs so far in 2009 (that also deducts in a very rough fashion, games played by all three players at DH).

Essentially, the Royals got exactly the offense they should have expected from the catching position.

Moving onto first base, and ignoring the horrible loss of outs created by Billy Butler turning two less 3-6-3 double plays then the average first baseman (maybe), the Royals have seen Butler emerge as a legitimate offensive force and create 89 runs thus far in 2009.

That is 38 more runs in just 100 more plate appearances over what Billy accomplished in 2008.

Certainly the Royals expected Butler to take a step forward offensively in 2009, but could they have truly envisioned this leap? Without question, Kansas City has gotten more production at first base than they probably expected going into the season.

So catching was even and first base is a plus, what about second base?

Even though the Royals went out and signed gritty, gutty Willie Bloomquist to not one, but a two-year contract in the offseason, they entered the regular season with Mark Teahen playing second base.

Those plans were quickly derailed when Alex Gordon went down with a hip injury in April, moving Teahen over to third, and giving Alberto Callaspo a shot at everyday duty at the position.

All Callaspo has done is create 76 runs (third highest on the team) and do so at the second highest per game rate (only Butler is better). The runs created total is ten better than Teahen managed in all of 2008. Sure, Alberto is a horrific defender, but given that the club was willing to put Teahen, who had never played the position before, in that spot, they can hardly bemoan the defensive shortcomings.

Prior to the season, Kansas City put very little value on the defensive side of second base and ended up getting more runs out of the spot then they could have reasonably expected. Another gain over preseason expectations.

Now, we move to shortstop and, for once, we will not talk about the Yuniesky Betancourt trade. The reason is simple: if Mike Aviles had not been hurt, the Royals don't panic and make the trade for Betancourt.

Our examination today is whether management had the team on the right track in April or not and hence our focus is on Apr. 1, when Mike Aviles was coming off a fantastic rookie season that saw him create 67 runs in just 102 games.

No one expected Aviles to produce at the same level in 2009 as he did in 2008—his BABIP was simply too high to be sustainable—but it was reasonable to expect Mike to create at least as many runs, albeit in more games. As we know, Aviles played hurt for most of the first two months, created just six runs, and now is out until sometime next summer.

That was a crippling blow to be sure, as the Royals had Tony Pena Jr., who had created 9 runs in 235 plate appearances in 2008, and Willie Bloomquist, who really was not a shortstop, as Aviles' only back-ups.

While Bloomquist had his moments at the plate early in the season, the Royals have taken hit at this position (even if you want to include Betancourt's 16 runs created since joining the team) and likely are going to end up with about 30 less runs out of their shortstops then they anticipated in the spring.

Moving over to third base, Kansas City was expecting big things out of Alex Gordon in 2009. After producing 79 runs in 2008 and 70 in 2007, the organization was certain this was going to be Alex's breakout year. I will be honest and admit that I was right there with them.

Instead, Gordon went down with hip surgery in April, hurried back in late July and eventually struggled enough to get sent down to AAA in August. I'm trying to be fair here, so we'll skip the whole service time/free agency discussion that goes hand in hand with the demotion.

At any rate, the Royals had Mark Teahen to step in for Gordon in April and he gave them exactly the type of production the Royals should have anticipated. Through Sunday's game, Mark had created 66 runs: the exact number he provided in 2008.

Combined with the thirteen runs Gordon has created in limited duty, Kansas City is on pace to get virtually the same amount of runs out of third base in 2009 as they received in 2008. Certainly, the Royals expected more, but injuries did actually hurt them here.

Okay, let's stop for a moment and examine the infield as a whole. The Royals are certainly minus some expected runs at shortstop and a few more at third base, but without question are plus runs at second base and at first base, too.

Is it even? Probably not quite and Dayton Moore can certainly say with a straight face that injuries did curtail someof the expected infield production.

Was it such a hit, however, to cause this team to not only fall out of contention, but become simply awful? Not even close to that: What happened in the infield, given the production gained from Callaspo and Butler, might have cost the Royals a couple of wins overall at most.

Moving onto the outfield, we find old reliable David DeJesus in left field. We should all get off David's back, stop worrying about how much he smiles and the fact that he is not Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon and just respect him for being the one guy on the team that gives you better than league average every freaking year.

Thus far in 2009, DeJesus has created 79 runs. His totals from the previous four seasons are: 85, 84, 81, 76. DeJesus is what he is and the Royals got exactly that.

In the offseason, the Royals moved their best setup man in Ramon Ramirez to Boston in exchange for centerfielder Coco Crisp. They were hoping to get Coco circa 2005 when he created 97 runs and ignored the three seasons in between when Crisp created 53, 69 amnd 53 runs. I am not sure the odds were working in Dayton Moore's favor on this one.

Crisp was pretty decent until he went down for good with shoulder ailments after two months and 26 runs created. His spot in center was filled by a combination of Mitch Maier, Willie Bloomquist and now, begrudgingly, Josh Anderson. Doing a rough pro-ration of runs created by each while actually playing in center, the Royals' combined center fielders have created right at 64 runs thus far in 2009.

Was it realistic for the Royals to really expect much more than that out of Coco Crisp? Given the past three seasons of injuries and reduced production, I think not. Ignoring the defensive quotient (because, after all, the Royals pretty much do), Kansas City has still ended up with about what they should have expected offensively from the center field position.

When the Royals signed Jose Guillen to a three year deal prior to the 2008 season, they were looking for production along the lines of the 95 runs he created in 2007. Instead, they got a surly 71 runs out of Jose in 2008 and less than half that (30) in an injury plagued 2009.

The Royals expected something north of 71 runs in 2009 and while we can debate whether that was logical or not, we do know that they have not gotten even that many runs this year out of right field. With Bloomquist, Teahen and Maier all chipping in, you can edge the production from this position up to maybe 60 runs.

Expectation wise, the Royals' outfield is probably light about 25 runs in 2009.

Taking the infield and outfield combined, we find that injuries to Aviles, Gordon, Crisp and Guillen have likely cost the team somewhere between 30 to 35 runs throughout the course of the season. How many wins is that?

A bunch if you want to front load them all into Zack Greinke starts, not a whole lot if you put them into Sidney Ponson and, recently, Luke Hochevar starts.

Let's go back and add 30 runs to the 2008 total of 681. That total of 711 runs scored/created would still put the Royals in the bottom third of American League offenses and probably the bottom quarter.

That is putting a lot of pressure on Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, Joakim Soria and nine other guys whom you had no real reason to trust. Especially when you went into the season knowing that you were average or below average at all but two defensive positions.

But wait! What about the designated hitter? We have totally forgotten a critical offensive position in our discussion of offensive expectations! In fact, the Royals went out and traded their second best setup man to acquire just the guy to fill this void.

Mike Jacobs is the man in question. The Royals gave up promising Leo Nunez to get him. Paid $3 million to sign him pre-arbitration and shoved Ryan Shealy and Kila Kaaihue aside to put him on the roster.

So what did all that get the Royals? Forty-eight runs, 25 less than he created in 2008, but only ten less than he provided in 2007. Jacobs has not been hurt, nor has he crippled the team defensively as the Royals have had the good sense not to let him pick up his glove since April.

You want to make up the 30 runs injuries have cost you? There's the place to do it and you, Dayton Moore, went out and got the wrong guy and in doing so decimated your bridge to one of the best closers in the league.

In turn, that weakness caused your manager, who is no genius at handling pitchers to begin with, to push his starters deeper into games in hopes of getting just a few outs closer to Soria.

We will examine the injuries to the pitching staff and the effect it has on "The Process" on Thursday, but for now, we have shown that while injuries dinged the Royals' offense some this season, it was a bad trade and unrealistic expectations that hurt it more.

The Butler Did It: Kansas City Rising Star Billy Butler Is Clued in at the Plate

Clark Fosler — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 11:48:47 -0400

Sam Mellinger tweeted the other day that a baseball guy summed up the Royals rather accurately and succinctly: their good players aren't good enough.

That is a sentiment we have offered more than once on this site and on many others, too. David DeJesus could be a regular on a contender, but he cannot be your best or second best hitter. Same could be said for Alberto Callaspo (we'll ignore his defense for now) and maybe even Mark Teahen.

Since trading Carlos Beltran, the Royals have been without an offensive star. A supporting cast—sometimes not a very good cast at that—with no marquee name.

As bad as 2009 has been for the Kansas City Royals, two good things have happened: Zack Greinke has emerged as possibly the best starting pitcher in the league and Billy Butler has laid the groundwork to become an actual offensive force.

For the year, Butler's OPS+ of 122 ranks 30th in the American League. While that may sound (and is) rather modest, it is worth noting that only one player ranked above Butler is his age. At 23 years of age, Butler and Evan Longoria are the two youngest players in the top 30 and are, in fact, two years junior to Adam Lind: the next youngest player in the top 30.

While Billy's overall batting line of .302/.355/.486/.842 falls closer to the "solid" category than the "star" category, his post-All Star line of .321/.380/.549/.929 certainly has "star" written all over it. His post-All Star OPS ranks 12th in the American League.

For players 24 years of age and younger, it is Evan Longoria and Billy Butler and then a big gap down to Asdrubal Cabrera and Gordon Beckham. While Longoria certainly has received and earned more national recognition, the batting lines of the two players is remarkably comparable:

Butler: .302/.355/.486, 42 doubles, 17 home runs

Longoria: .281/.359/.541, 41 doubles, 30 home runs

I doubt that Billy will ever match Longoria's home run numbers, but he might well blow past the Rays' star in on-base percentage over the coming seasons.

When was the last time the Royals could lay claim to having one of the best players of any age group? Beltran is obviously the answer, so it has been almost six years.

Is it out of line to expect Butler second half numbers of this season to be his full season numbers for 2010? And probably with more power yet? I don't think so. In fact, I would be willing to bet on it.

Is Billy Butler becoming a star enough to make the Royals contenders? Nope, not even close.

Butler will be a hitting star, but he won't be Joe Mauer and even teamed with Morneau and Kubel, that is probably not enough to get the Twins into the playoffs. Still, one offensive star is closer to respectability than zero, so in that respect, Kansas City is one step closer to competing than they have been since 2003.

The Royals have a myriad of problems. They are poorly coached and managed. Their front office has bumbled their way through the season and spent the majority of the summer in "cover your *ss" mode instead of addressing the problems of the organization.

That said, Kansas City has Zack Greinke, Joakim Soria, and Billy Butler: three players that would play for every team in baseball. While that is not enough to compete in 2009 or 2010, it is progress.

Royals Are Laughingstocks Once More

Clark Fosler — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 10:44:59 -0400

When Dayton Moore was hired as general manager and David Glass decided it was okay to spend a little money, most of us were sure that the Royals were on the road back to respectability.

Bolstered by a "better than it really was" September, the Royals won more games in 2008 than they had since 2003 and finished out of last place for the first time since that magical '03 run, too.

There were legitimate thoughts of contending in 2009 from some, and certainly expectations of finishing around .500 from most.

A few of you sage commenters out there correctly projected that the Royals' 2008 campaign was skewed by an 18-8 September and forecasted a three or four game decline.

Did anyone expect the 2009 Kansas City Royals to be battling the Washington Nationals for title of the worst team in baseball?

Well, welcome to the last week in August, where the Royals are just three-and-a-half games out of having to negotiate with Bryce Harper next June.

This Royals team has managed to dig into rock bottom in spectacular fashion.

They traded their best setup man, Ramon Ramirez, for Coco Crisp, who gave the team six good weeks and is now out until midseason of 2010.

They traded their next best setup man, Leo Nunez, for a designated hitter in Mike Jacobs who might not be better than a guy the team already had in AAA (Kila Kaaihue) and has all of six more home runs than the team's leadoff hitter.

This is an organization that pinned its hopes on a second year shortstop in Mike Aviles, who, even before being injured, was a prime candidate for at least some regression.

The backup plan? Why Tony Pena Jr., of course!

When Aviles did finally go down (and drew the ire of the organization for hiding his injury and trying to play through it—hell, if Tony Pena Jr. was MY backup, I'd figure I needed to play at all costs, too) the organization panicked into trading an underachieving, yet high on potential pitching prospect for an overpaid, under-ranged shortstop long on reputation and short on production.

Along the way, the Royals have coddled their star closer to the point of making him irrelevant.

It should be noted that Trey Hillman has at last opted to salvage a few games by going outside the box and using Joakim Soria for multiple two-inning saves.

Yet, they also overused their staff leader, Gil Meche, to the point that he is a shell of the pitcher he had been the previous two seasons.

The fall back to baseball's laughingstock has included posting a sub-500 record in games started by the league's best pitcher (Zack Greinke), sending down third baseman Alex Gordon just last week after rushing him through his rehab from injury, (they had 30 days to play him in the minors and instead opted to bring him back two weeks early) and carrying 13 pitchers and three catchers on their 25-man roster.

This past weekend, the Royals suffered a sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, a team with no more money than the Royals, who happened to draft and develop the heart of their batting order.

We saw two different right fielders (Josh Anderson and Willie Bloomquist) misplay the team out of a victory and multiple bullpen meltdowns, highlighted by Kyle Farnsworth's actual incarnation on the mound.

All the while, this organization seems to be sailing serenely forward as if all is going according to plan.

They have used just 17 pitchers this season: none of them rookies, four of them (Jamey Wright, Horacio Ramirez, Sidney Ponson, and Bruce Chen) vagabond veterans. In fact, not one player has made his major league debut for the Royals this season.

This is an organization that seems to almost be afraid to "find out" about players.

They don't want to play speedy Josh Anderson in centerfield because "Kaufmann Stadium has a lot of area to cover." They don't want to give Brayan Pena three months to prove or disprove he can be a starting catcher because they want Miguel Olivo's "slug" in the lineup.

A call-up of Kila Kaaihue or Jordan Parraz (before he got hurt...again) would have necessitated exposing one of the teams' eight relievers to waivers.

Gasp! The horror!

Submarining reliever Chris Hayes or fireballing reliever Carlos Rosa or Chris Nicoll, Jason Godin, Victor Marte, or even Brandon Duckworth or Lenny DiNardo might help this wretched assembly of ineffectiveness that Kansas City calls a bullpen.

Instead, the Royals stay with the same group. I'm sure if Doug Waechter had not been injured, all would have been solved.

Trust me, I tried to "trust the process." I thought Ramirez for Crisp was a reasonable gamble, and even was not abhorred by the Nunez-for-Jacbos deal.

I was not against Gil Meche throwing 132 pitches—remember the last batter was a 10 pitch plate appearance—although the idea of tossing him 121 pitches after he claimed a dead arm on July 1 remains a criminal offense.

I believed in Juan Cruz, and thought he and Ron Mahay would be a capable setup tandem.

Well, I was wrong, but I'm willing to admit that.

By mid-June, I was thinking about changes that could be made to improve this team, if not for 2009, at least for 2010. It is easy for me to admit mistakes, given that my quotes don't get published in the newspaper and I don't have to sign the checks for said mistakes.

I get that it is hard, maybe counterproductive, for Dayton Moore and crew to say "Hey, we screwed up, we'll have to start over again."

My concern, however, is that they truly don't believe they have done anything wrong: That, if not for injuries, the Royals would be in contention.

That is the only reasoning I can see for this organization's complete lack of substantial movement, outside of acquiring Betancourt, as the season crumbled around them.

Die hard Royals fans know baseball and they continue to show up season after season. They follow the draft with great anticipation and many can name 30 or more of the players in the minor leagues.

They care, period.

The casual fans may have rightfully packed it in. The ones that remain, going to games, devouring every morsel of Royals' coverage, writing and commenting on blogs and forums: They get it. They know baseball, good and bad, and they know when they are being laughed at.

Thank you, Dayton Moore, David Glass, and Trey Hillman, you have led us back...all the way to 2004.

I bet Ruben Mateo and Abraham Nunez are waiting by the phone right now.

Is Alberto Callaspo the Royals' Best Trading Chip?

Clark Fosler — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 09:51:33 -0400

On Tuesday, I offered up the proposition that the current Royals roster simply was not good enough. After losing yesterday afternoon, making them 3-12 in Zack Greinke's last 15 starts, it only seems to reinforce my point.

Given that, I really don't think it is too early to start thinking about the offseason. It is certainly less frustrating than trying to analyze why this roster currently contains 13 pitchers and two backup catchers.

Going into this offseason, the Royals have truly three untouchable players: Zack Greinke, Joakim Soria and Billy Butler.

Sure, you can make a case for the exorbitant haul Greinke might net or that a losing team does not really need a great closer (although closers are seldom traded, by the way), but as an organization part of rebuilding is having something to build upon. Those three guys are pretty solid building blocks in my opinion.

After that, I have come around to the mindset that you hang onto Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar, also. While Meche has struggled with injuries, Bannister is a true No. 4 starter (which is not exactly an overwhelming compliment), and Hochevar will never leave up to his first overall pick projections, they still provide the Royals with the only segment of the team that can be considered at least league average—maybe even better than that.

So, at this point you might be saying "well, WHO is left to trade?" and you might be right, but I will make a case that there still are commodities that will return value on this roster. Today, my focus is not on David DeJesus and Mark Teahen, but instead on second baseman Alberto Callaspo.

Before the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks traded Felipe Lopez to the Brewers for Cole Gillespie, a AAA outfielder, and Roque Mercedes, a High-A ball pitcher. At 29 years old, Lopez is three years older than Callaspo and enjoying a fine season (310/373/425).

Those numbers are well above what Lopez has posted the past three seasons, however, when he threw up an OPS of .739, .659 and .730.

Felipe is also currently 6.7 runs above average in the field (courtesy Fangraphs.com). That fielding number is also out of character for Lopez. In 2006, he was 17.5 runs below average, 6.6 below average in 2007 and 7.7 below average in 2008.

Now, for reference, Alberto Callaspo is 11.5 runs below average in the field this season and posting a .781 OPS (297/349/432). I will admit to not having seen Lopez play all that much, but when you factor in the age difference and the similarity of both the offensive and defensive numbers, I think the Callaspo/Lopez comparison is defensible.

In an offseason trade, I am not sure you get two players back for Callaspo, so let's assume that the Royals can only get one and that they (for once) focus on getting some offense. That theory puts the focus on the type of player that Gillespie is.

At the time of the trade, Cole Gillespie was a 25 year old outfielder coming off a AA campaign that saw him hit 281/386/472/858. In his first year in AAA, Cole was hitting just 242/332/424 with 12 doubles, 5 triples and 7 home runs. Since the trade, by the way, Gillespie is posting a plus 900 OPS in AAA.

Overall, Gillespie projects as a solid everyday outfielder, but probably not as a star. However, the Brewers gave him up, plus Mercedes for a player in Lopez who can be lost to free agency this winter. The Royals would be offering a player with similar skills, three years younger, and under team control for four more seasons.

So, with that as a somewhat logical foundation, here are three trade possibilities:

HOUSTON - The Astros have 33 year old Kaz Matsui playing second and hitting poorly. He is owed $5 million in 2010 and I am not sure if Houston thinks it is contender next year or not, but I still think it is a possibility.

In return for Callaspo, I would target outfielder Brian Bogusevic. The 25 year old is a former pitcher who converted to outfield just a year ago. Brian hit the ground running and posted a AA line of 371/447/556 in 51 games last season. In AAA this year, Bogusevic has respectable if unspectacular line of 277/353/375.

The Royals would be taking a risk that Bogusevic, with just 172 games of hitting under his belt, is going to blossom like a Rick Ankiel and not crash and burn like a Mike Stodolka. Maybe this is a bit light for Callaspo, but then again, I would like to envision a production Bogusevic batting fifth in 2010 than watching Callaspo hit there again next year.

DETROIT - Yes, I know all about the 'don't trade within the division' logic, but come on: we are talking about Alberto Callaspo here. The Tigers have Placido Palanco at second, a marvelous fielder with an ever declining bat who is headed toward free agency.

The Tigers might be content to try to resign Palanco (hoping that the rest of their bats can carry him) or they might be willing to wait on Scott Sizemore or Cale Iorg.

However, this is a first place team that expects to be in first again next year. Callaspo for all his defensive problems (and maybe Jim Leyland thinks he can make him competent) brings a solid bat that would look pretty good batting seventh in Detroit.

In return, would the Royals think 24 year old Casper Wells be enough? Wells is a muscular athlete who slugged .589 in AA in 2008, but is currently hitting 252/366/483 in his first full season at that level this year. Wells is more of a'2011' type guy, but has some pretty interesting upside potential.

Possibly the Royals would need another player to make this deal work, but Wells would immediately become the organization's best outfield prospect (or second behind David Lough, at least).

NEW YORK METS - Speaking of teams that expect to contend, meet the Mets. Injuries have destroyed this team in 2009, but they also have some holes, too. New York also has 33 year old Luis Castillo playing second base and owe him $12 million over the next two seasons.

While Castillo has had something of resurgence at the plate (.402 on-base percentage, .770 OPS) it is worth noting that he has posted an OPS better than Callaspo's .781 just once in his career...and that was back in 2000. Luis is also on his way to posting his second consecutive below average fielding number (-7.7 thus far).

Okay, let me say that right here, I start to go into a little bit of flight of fancy, but I'm curious to see what others might think of this.

The Royals are on the hook for $12 million to Jose Guillen (all in 2010), the Mets are on the hook for $12 million to Castillo over 2010 and 2011. What would the response be if the Royals offered Callaspo (remember, he's cheap and under team control) and Jose Guillen for Luis Castillo and, wait for it, Fernando Martinez.

Martinez, all of 20 years old, hit a stunning .176 in 100 major league plate appearances so far in 2009, but did post a solid 290/337/540 line in AAA (at age 20 mind you). He has moved quickly, too quickly probably, through the Mets' system having never played more than 86 games at any one level.

He is either THE top prospect in the system or one of the top the Mets have.

Does New York bite on this offer, hoping that Guillen might have enough of a resurgence hitting sixth in their lineup to help them back into contention in 2010? Maybe not, probably not, actually—not even if Dayton Moore publicly apologizes to the Mets for sticking them with Ambiriox Burgos.

What if Kansas City picks up a third of Guillen's salary? What if they threw in a minor league pitcher? Who would it have to be and would you make that move under those conditions?

Now, you might be wondering why the focus of my proposed trade efforts is arguably the team's second best hitter.

Well, Callaspo falls into the precarious position that so many other Royals also do: Everyday players who are better supporting cast than offensive core players. He is the worst defender on a bad defensive club who happens to occupy a position for which one can actually see a successor on the horizon (Jeff Bianchi).

I believe Callaspo has more value to a good team than he will provide to the Royals over the next two or three seasons. That makes him the focus of my first offseason trade, but certainly not the last.

The Kansas City Royals' Season Turns More Blue Once You Look at a Stat or Two

Clark Fosler — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 13:29:07 -0400

While it would be inaccurate to call the 2009 Royals the worst team in history, you can make a very real argument that they might well be the most disappointing squad to wear blue.

While other teams can lay claim to this title (1986, 2004 come to mind and I remember 1979 being pretty upsetting, too), perhaps what makes this group move to the top of the list is managment's stubborn insistence that "everything is okay."

Trades? Yuniesky Betancourt is all we needed to do.

Shake-ups? Nope, can't take at-bats away from Willie Bloomqusit and Miguel Olivo.

The trust is, everything is NOT okay. Sure, this team has been struck by a bevy of injuries, but they hardly can fully explain this team's drop to next to last in baseball. Simply put, this team, as constructed, is not good enough.

Keep in mind, I say that coming from a rather optimistic perspective generally. I am a David DeJesus fan, believe Alex Gordon will still develop, and think maybe, just maybe, next year might be the year Mark Teahen reverts to 2006 form. Heck, I watch Ramon Colon take the mound and find myself saying, "you know, he might just develop into a pretty good setup guy."

My optimism is waning, at least for today. Especially after conducting the research we are about to delve into. Using OPS+, where 100 is considered league average, and limiting our research only to players with 200 or more plate appearances this season, let's compare the Royals' outfielders to the rest of the league.

Currently, the Royals trot out David DeJesus in left with an OPS+ of 97, Mark Teahen in right with an OPS+ of 99, and Willie Bloomquist in center with a stunning, gritty OPS+ of 74. You can throw in Mitch Maier's 83, the same mark posted by Jose Guillen. Yes, MITCH MAIER has an OPS+ equal to that of Jose Guillen.

If you think that is somewhat sub-standard, you are right. In fact, the Royals are the only team in the league without at least one outfielder above 100 and most teams have at least two. Let's run down the rest of the league.

Baltimore

You knew Nick Markakis was good (OPS+ 116), but did you realize that Luke Scott, Nolan Reimold, and Adam Jones all had above average numbers? Scott, who plays some first base, has an OPS+ of 122, Reimold's is 108, and Adam Jones (who you probably also knew as good) is posting a 109 mark. It would be a lot easier to trust the process if that was the Royals' outfield, wouldn't it?

Boston

Jason Bay has a robust 128 OPS+ and is going to get paid like it at the end of the year. For whatever reason, I have looked for reasons to dislike J.D. Drew his enitre career, but there he is with 100 games played and a 109 OPS+.

Jacoby Ellsbury has 53 steals in 61 attempts, which has to be considered when you see that his OPS+ is just 90. Factoring in age, speed and the fact that Ellsbury is a true centerfielder and I doubt that the Red Sox could find an everyday spot for any Royal outfielder.

Chicago

Jermaine Dye remains a man with a 119 OPS+, but the rest of the Sox outfield is really not that amazing. Scott Podsednik and Carlos Quentin both have 91 OPS+: that's a pretty good year for a guy like Podsednik and pretty awful for Quentin.

Two hundred and ten plate appearances for Brian Anderson (66 OPS+) was enough to send Kenny Williams out on a $60 million scavenger hunt for Alex Rios and his rather boring 92 OPS+. Chicago is the poster child for the theory that DeJesus and Teahen are good enough if Gordon and Butler turn into mashers.

Cleveland

Any one who thought Shin-Soo Choo would have a better mark than Grady Sizemore gets a gold star. Right now, Choo's 125 OPS+ is well above the dead on average of 100 that Sizemore carries (my kingdom for a player whose "off" year is league average!). Ben Francisco is holding his own with a 95.

Detroit

Speaking of off-years and league average, Curtis Granderson has an OPS+ of 108 and no one thinks he's playing very well. Marcus Thames checks in with a 107, and the disappointing Magglio Ordonez has just an 88 OPS+. You can throw Clete Thomas into the mix too, with an OPS+ of 92. I really do believe Jim Leyland is a genius, by the way.

Angels

Ever wonder why the Angels always have winning records? Check out this string of outfielders: Vlad Guerroro (112), Bobby Abreu (122), Torii Hunter (139) and Juan Rivera (122). Hmm...Abreu for $5 million or Jose Guillen for $12 million?

Minnesota

It's bad enough that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau lead the A.L. in OPS+, but then you add an outfield of Jason Kubel (149), Michael Cuddyer (123), and Denard Span (108). No wonder Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez don't get to play everyday.

New York

Oh what money can buy: Damon (127), Matsui (126), Swisher (122), and you can throw in Melky Cabrera (95 OPS+) and Brett Gardner (98). Yes, the Yankees' fifth best hitting outfielder would be the Royals' best.

Oakland

The A's had 10 players with 200 or more plate appearances, but three of them have been traded. Among that group was Matt Holliday (124 OPS+), leaving an outfield of Rajai Davis with a 116 OPS+, Jack Cust (96, and I'm using the term "outfielder" loosely here), and Ryan Sweeney (91). Kansas City stacks up pretty decently against this group, but then they aren't contending, either.

Seattle

I remember back in the Octavio Dotel trade sweepstake a resounding pooh-pooh of the idea of trading Dotel for Franklin Gutierrez. Thank goodness Kansas City didn't trade for a center fielder with an OPS+ of 111! He's joined by Ichiro's 127 OPS+ and, for lack of any other candidates with the required plate appearances, Ken Griffey Jr. and his 94 mark.

Tampa Bay

The Rays' outfield is not as good as you might have thought, at least by this statistical measurement. Carl Crawford has an excellent 119 OPS+, but Gabe Gross is just a tick above average with a 104 and B.J. Upton's 73 OPS+ puts him closer to Willie Bloomquist than league average. Again, if Alex Gordon was Evan Longoria....oh, nevermind.

Texas

Nelson Cruz passed through waivers last spring and now has an OPS+ of 127. He is joined by by David Murphy (106), Marlon Byrd (105), and a guy named Josh Hamilton with a disappointing OPS+ of "just" 94. You can make yourself feel worse and put Andruw Jones and his mark of 116 into the mix.

Toronto

With the departure of Rios, the Blue Jays have only two outfielders with more than 200 plate appearances: One they like, and one they wish would just go away. Adam Lind might be one of the better players no one has heard of with his OPS+ of 133, while Vernon Wells and his OPS+ of 83 might be one of the least productive "big" names this side of Jose Guillen.

This entire discussion pretty much leads us back to where we started. Guys like DeJesus and Teahen can be everyday players on good teams (or at least some good teams) if they have the proper surrounding cast.

Billy Butler is making strides to be an impact bat, but Alex Gordon's 2009 season is basically just a lost year. Without mashers in the middle of the lineup, the likes of DeJesus and Teahen and for GODSSAKE WILLIE BLOOMQUIST cannot make you a winning team.

So, Mr. Moore, this offseason are you going to "trust the process" or make the moves necessary to get the Royals out of the cellar and turn them into the perennial contender you promised.

Is There Any Help On The Horizon For Kansas City?

Clark Fosler — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 10:25:20 -0400

While the company line out of Kaufmann Stadium these days is 'trust the process', I put that sentiment in roughly the same category as:

David DeJesus is hurting the team because he smiles too much
Alex Gordon would be better if he showed more emotion
Willie Bloomquist is a gamer who helps the team despite his sub .700 OPS
Mike Jacobs is 'coming around'
Mark Teahen is a good defender

However, all that aside, our opinions really do not matter when it comes to the direction of the Kansas City Royals. Those who control the future of this organization currently believe in 'the process'.

Had it not been for numerous injuries and some bad luck, the powers that be truly think this team would be in the hunt for the AL Central. They also point to an ever improving farm system ready to push the Royals to the next level.

Well, if we trust the process, or are at least are curious about said process, then it probably is time to look at that farm system and see just where and when the help will come.

This will be a rough and tumble look at each position, who is the closest to helping and how much help they might bring.

CATCHER

The "help" is already on hand with switchhitting Brayan Pena on the major league roster and playing on a regular basis.

He has some limits defensively—notably blocking balls—but that seems to be one thing you can actually work on at the major league level.

If the answer is not Pena, then you are looking a long, long ways down the line: past J.R. House and John Suomi in AAA, past Cody Clark and Vance Wilson in AA and Ryan Eigsti in High A.

You are banking on Sean McCauley or Jose Bonilla or Salvador Perez in Low A ball. All three have "upside," none of the three is showing much this year after promising stints in rookie ball in 2008.

Bottom line, it's Brayan Pena or outside the organization until at least 2012.

While Brayan will never be an All-Star, he has a chance to be at least an average everyday catcher and maybe even better if he really can hit .300 over the course of a full season.

FIRST BASE/DH

I am putting these two positions together simply because Billy Butler has established himself as being one or the other for as far out in the future as you want to go.

He has gone from a singles hitter to ranking second in the league in doubles and beginning to turn some of that power potential into actual power.

Of course the obvious "help" is currently in AAA in the person of one Kila Kaaihue.

After a breakout 2008, Kila has not lit up the world, but still has a very good .261/.398/.453/.851 line.

Sure, we would like to see more power than his current 14 homers, but with more walks than strikeouts, I like the odds on Kila being able to post a major league on-base percentage north of .380.

If the Royals are willing to actually give him a chance, your help could be here, right now, or at least to start 2010.

I am split on whether Kila can hit with enough power in the majors to be a long term answer at this spot.

Right now, he falls into that "better than what the Royals have right now" trap, but, I think it's worth a shot for at least part of 2010.

After Kaaihue, the big name is Eric Hosmer now in High A, who is all potential and little results right now.

SECOND BASE/SHORTSTOP

I have combined these two simply because the primary prospect at both positions is Jeff Bianchi.

After some pretty unimpressive years in A ball, a finally healthy Bianchi has stepped forward with a line of .315/.366/.442/.808 split between Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas.

That has been impressive enough to jump the former second round pick in front of Mario Lisson (currently in AAA hitting some homers, but not much else) as most likely to succeed in the middle infield in the majors.

While it is hard to project Bianchi as a star, it is rather easy to see him becoming a young 'Mark Grudzielanek' type player with a touch more power.

The Royals are committed to Yunieksy Betancourt for better or worse and have an on-base machine who cannot field in Alberto Callaspo.

With Bianchi's major league arrival probably not coming any time before September of 2010, one of those will surely have worn out his welcome by then.

Behind Bianchi is Johnny Giavotella.

Giavotella, who started slowly in Wilmington, has steadily pushed his numbers north as the season has worn on (currently has a .741 OPS). A pure second baseman who is just okay defensively, Johnny is a good two years away from pushing onto the major league roster.

THIRD BASE

The discussion pretty much begins and ends with Mike Moustakas.

It comes to an end permanently if Alex Gordon ever realizes his number two overall pick potential.

Moustakas is having a "just okay" year at the plate, but Wilmington is an awful place to be a big time hitter. Mike is also struggling in the field and, still, in my mind at least, projects more at a corner outfield spot or even first base.

At minimum, Moustakas is looking at a late 2011 arrival in the bigs.

Like Hosmer, you hope for star potential, but projecting the type of major leaguer he will turn into is really a shot in the dark at this point.

OUTFIELD

Jordan Parraz has posted a combined .973 OPS between AA and AAA this year.

He is a swing first ask questions later kind of guy, which is okay when you are striking out just 43 times in 81 games. Those types of hitters sometimes become Mike Jacobs once you get to the majors (I don't mean that in a good way, either), but Parraz will be in position to give it a shot at the beginning of 2010.

He could become a Raul Ibanez type (albeit without quite as much power) or a Matt Diaz type or be a bust, ala Shane Costa.

Your next outfield help comes in the form of David Lough in AA. (No, I don't believe in Chris Lubanski and Jose Duarte crashed and burned in a limited AA stint earlier this year.)

Lough has a robust .321/.369/.479 line split between A and AA and, in a perfect world, could develop into an above average regular (think DeJesus with more pop).

You will most likely have to wait until late 2010 or early 2011 to find out.

After those two, you are looking at a whole bunch of speed, potential and youth, none of whom can even begin to be thought about until 2012...if then.

STARTING PITCHING

Everyone loves the Royals' pitching depth.

The problem is that depth is really deep in the minors.

With Dan Cortes gone to Seattle, the next truly impact help is in High A Wilmington.

No, Lenny DiNardo does not count as help under the definition of this article. Rowdy Hardy? C'mon. Blake Johnson? Doubtful. Julio Pimental? Hurt.

Wilmington currently boasts a staff that includes Mike Montgomery (2.19 ERA in 15 starts, both low and high A), Danny Duffy (3.51 ERA in 19 starts) and Danny Gutierrez (0 runs, 10K in 8 innings).

Gutierrez had a run-in with the organization over agents and rehab training, and essentially bought himself another summer in Delaware instead of basking in the Texas League sun.

If he gets back to form and in the right frame of mind, Gutierrez could shoot all the way to AAA by late 2010 and conceivably get a look at the majors sometime in 2011.

He could be a very good middle of the rotation starter.

Montgomery and Duffy, thus far, have all the looks of top of the rotation type starters who will likely get full years in both AA and AAA. That points those two towards major league debuts in late 2011 or early 2012.

Of course, the wild card is this year's number one pick Aaron Crow.

Without the hammer of the August 17th signing deadline (Crow and Tanner Scheppers of the Rangers are exempt from this deadline), negotiations might conclude later rather than sooner.

If Crow signs at some point this summer or early fall, he could spend one season in the minors and be ready to become a major league starter in 2011.

Projection?

Anywhere from a number two to a number four. If he's ready in April of 2011, I'll take either one.

RELIEF PITCHING

The Royals seem stocked in this area.

Carlos Rosa has come around after a slow start and should get a call to unveil his 97 mile per hour fastball in the majors any day now.

Also in AAA is submarining Chris Hayes who will certainly get a shot at the bullpen next spring.

The fastest mover in the 2007 draft class?

That would be Greg Holland, already in AAA after blowing through the lower levels in impressive fashion. He is another power reliever who might well get a look early next season, too.

Chris Nicoll also just got the callup to AAA and, given his age, will get a look next spring, too.

Frankly, all four of these guys might be a better bullpen arm than any of the four pitching in front of Joakim Soria for the Royals right now.

Keep in mind, that after this group, the organization has Henry Barrera, who was good enough to be protected from the Rule 5 draft last winter.

Barrera, who averaged over twelve strikeouts per nine innings in 2008, is just getting going this year after injury problems this spring.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

While writing each individual section, I found myself moderately encouraged by the help that might be arriving in the majors.

Once I stepped back and took a birds eye view, however, it is not really that exciting.

Between now and early 2011, there is not a single star player that would seem ready to emerge at the major league level.

The Royals might well be able to count on a solid everyday catcher in Brayan Pena and an upgrade at designated hitter (Kaaihue over Jacobs/Olivo).

They could get good everyday players in Bianchi and either Parraz or Lough, but then I consider David DeJesus a "good everyday player" and Mark Teahen an "acceptable everyday player."

Having five or six "good" or "solid" everyday players is fine if you have a couple of stars.

The Royals have zero "stars" right now and find themselves in the same position they were in 2005: waiting for Billy Butler and Alex Gordon to emerge as offensive forces.

Given that the GM back then was Allard Baird, you kind of wonder exactly what progress has been made, don't you?

While the relief corps seems on the verge of getting in-house reinforcements, the only near-term starting rotation help is a guy who is not even under contract and has thrown less than seventy competitive innings since June of 2008.

Stay the course, trust the process? Put me in the skeptical category.

Bruce Chen From Panama: Royals' Stopper

Clark Fosler — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 16:03:06 -0400

When your team needs a win, who else would you want on the mound except Bruce Chen?

It is a happy Friday, so we will ignore that Chen allowed 11 baserunners in less than seven innings and allowed just two runs despite only striking out four and getting just one double play. Maybe he was more lucky than good on Thursday night, but it worked out for a much needed win.

Okay, "much needed win" is kind of an overstatement. This team is locked in a downward spiral that the additions of Doug Waechter and Josh Anderson is probably not going to pull them out of. Not that I mind those additions, because, at this point, any change is a good change.

For the record, Chen has thrown 23.1 innings over his last four starts and allowed 30 hits, but just 10 earned runs for a 3.86 earned run average. He has walked six, struck out 19 and hit three batters just for good measure. That is a WHIP of 1.67, which is living pretty dangerously and probably a sign that the Royals should thank Bruce for his fine fill-in work and not press their luck once Gil Meche is ready to return next week.

Of course, this is OUR Kansas City Royals, and they are just as likely to sign Chen to an extension, as send him through waivers this month.

Sarcasm aside, Chen gave the Royals a far better start than that produced by Kyle Davies on Wednesday night. Davies was not only lit up on the mound, but bounced a potential pickoff play at second that was simply one of the four most horrendous throws I have seen in my life (the other three involved slow pitch softball, co-ed play, and a keg of beer).

Wednesday's outing begs the question (and I am hardly the first to come up with this): should the Royals try Davies as a reliever?

That is a somewhat treacherous proposition given Kyle's struggles with control, but opponents are hitting just .231 against him in the first inning of all his starts. They hit .268 in the second inning and .383 in the third.

Again, though, Davies has also walked 14 and struck out 10 in the first inning of his games, so that's a big concern. You wonder, however, if Kyle is focused on throwing his best stuff for one, maybe two innings, if he might be able to conquer that problem.

Just a thought and maybe worth trying since Davies continues to dominate AAA as a starter and struggle mightily in the majors.

Two positives to end the week with:

1. The Royals actually made the right move on Wednesday when they designated Ryan Freel for assignment and kept Mitch Maier on the team. While I think Maier is destined to be a fringe player, I know Freel is/was one.

2. Alex Gordon ACTUALLY MADE AN ADJUSTMENT! His is shortening his swing and keeping both hands on the bat and has been recently rewarded with five hits in two games (albeit two of them on the infield). After two years of a long, pretty swing that missed more often than hit, and murmers that Gordon was too stubborn to adjust his approach, we once again proudly proclaim "any change is good change."

Time for the Kansas City Royals To Move Forward

Clark Fosler — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:05:27 -0400

You know what's funny about Zack Greinke's outing yesterday? If you define it as 'Zack just didn't have it', you are a baseball man. If your analysis is that Zack's fastball was, on average, two miles per hour slower than normal (he topped 94 mph just once all day), then you are a stathead.

Yet, both are basically saying the exact same thing.

Not all that different than a sports radio host who expresses his opinion is 'doing his job', while a blogger who does the same is 'looking for attention.' The hypocrisy of it all and, specifically, the mindset that my-group-is-better-than-your-group and whoever disagrees with me is misinformed or, more probably, just plain stupid gets a little old once we hit the dog days of August.

It has to be getting old in the bowels of the Royals' organization where you just have to believe there are people, baseball men and statheads alike, wondering why this organization is so serenely going through the 2009 season as if all is well.

They hear the talk of defense and on-base percentage and see no on field implementation of those words.

You are walking along one day, trusting the process and believing that patience is the key (Dayton Moore's words, not mine), and all of sudden the organization panics into not only acquiring Yuniesky Betancourt, but overpaying to do so.

Don't you have to wonder if the Royals would be better off in 2010 if they had just bitten the bullet and played Willie Bloomquist and Luis Hernandez—there I said it: Luis Hernandez—at shortstop the remainder of the year?

The organization would then enter next spring with Dan Cortes still in the system, hopefully vying with Aaron Crow to the be the ace of the Omaha staff, with Jeff Bianchi playing shortstop behind them. All three just a couple of good months away from being on the major league squad.

Sure, that logic says that the Royals are unlikely to contend in 2010, but if the goal is to build something that lasts, then so be it.

The Royals gambled that they could contend in 2009 and were derailed by injuries to Aviles (who still, as bad as he was this season, has a higher OPS+ than Betancourt) and Crisp.

Mike Jacobs has been awful as have Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz. Alex Gordon missed half of what was supposed to be his breakout year and Jose Guillen was just as hobbled up as he was last year.

There has certainly been some bad fortune, not to mention bad moves. Admit it, get over it, stop worrying about what people are saying or writing about you, and get it right going forward.

Now, in case you were thinking this was just another negative rant by another one of those awful, terrible and lonely bloggers (and in some respects you are correct, but my mother thinks I'm a fine person) here are a few things I would do if the stars aligned and I was appointed general manager tomorrow morning:

The bullpen is a mess and has been a mess since mid-May. This is not an original thought (Rany has brought it up, as have others, and I tweeted (yes, tweeted) in late May that I though Northwest Arkansas had a better bullpen than Kansas City and I was not being sarcastic), but there is no reason not to bring up Carlos Rosa and Chris Hayes. One of the organization's curious moves this year was starting Hayes back in AA while the likes of Greg Atencio et al. occupied space in Omaha. If Hayes had started the year in Omaha, he would be in the majors already.
I designated Ron Mahay and Jamey Wright for assignment. One is 38, the other is 35 and neither is reliable enough to figure into the team's future plans. Maybe I get something for one of them (a Paulo Orlando type), maybe I don't. Chances are I don't care.
While we're at it, Doug Waechter just finished his essentially season long rehab assignment last night and basically has to come up. Hey, what's the harm? I return Roman Colon to Omaha. I'll be honest, I think Colon has an option left, but I'm not sure—presumably someone in the front office knows this and will tell me. At any rate, I don't know that anyone claims Colon if it turns out he does has to pass through waivers to be sent down.
In a minor league move, reliever Chris Nicoll is pushed up to Omaha. He was dazzling in AA last year and started off great at the same level again this season, but has slumped of late. Still, pretty much sink or swim time for the former third round pick and he joins already promoted Greg Holland as two young guys who could figure in the team's plans next spring.
I place Josh Anderson in centerfield and leave him there every single day. Acquired for $20,000, I'm willing to spend the next two months to find out if he can really play or not. There is no point in spending over two years, as the Royals did with Joey Gathright, determining if the guy can contribute. Fifty games down the stretch ought to do it.
Mike Jacobs is a good guy, a real professional and, let's face it, more miss than swing. Having already paid the bulk of his salary, the cost of just dropping him is minimal. While Kila Kaahuie is not lighting up AAA like he did last year, his on-base percentage is still north of .400. That's enough to give him two months of work as the club's designated hitter.
An obvious one here: when Gil Meche is ready, Bruce Chen is dispatched. I really do not care where he ends up as long as it is not in the Royals' bullpen.
I monitor the bullpen for another couple of weeks and if Robinson Tejeda continues to walk everyone he faces every other time he appears and John Bale continues to be what he has been, then I make the move to bring up Yash Yabuta and Brandon Duckworth to take their spots in the pen. Again, the logic is not so much that those two will be improvements, but I might was well find out once and for all. What's the worst that's going to happen given that the Royals already have the second worst record in baseball?
Come September, I make the move to bring up Jordan Parraz and Chris Lubanski and utilize them in a loose platoon in right field. Let's get an inkling THIS year of what these two might offer at the major league level. That will tell us what we need to do, besides jettison the broken down Jose Guillen, in the off-season with regard to our outfield situation.
Move No. 9 forces Mark Teahen to second base. Why? Well, exactly how many errors are you prepared to let Alberto Callaspo commit this year (he is at 15 and counting)? Secondly, if Teahen can look even a touch above awful at second it increases his off-season trade value. Maybe I end up keeping Mark, maybe I don't, but this gives me another option when it comes to Teahen.
The club has already made the move to give Brayan Pena more time behind the plate. I continue on that plan and, if Miguel Olivo and/or John Buck make it through waivers in August I continue to look to move them. Given Olivo's contract and his obvious faults (plus the fact that Buck would be an excellent BACKUP catcher), I would be tempted to take just about any deal that was offered.

Now, I know some of you reading this are saying 'what's the point?'. All eleven moves in combination very likely don't make the 2009 Royals any better and it is very possible that none of these really solve any problems for 2010. I cannot argue that point of view.

However, these moves do answer questions. Questions that the organization does not have to bother itself with during the offseason or waste spring training innings trying to figure out.

Is it giving up on 2009? You bet it is.

Then again, what exactly are the Royals 'giving up' at this point?

No Trade Too Small For The Kansas City Royals

Clark Fosler — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:17:04 -0400

"It's like teams are expecting us to just give away our players."

By now, a lot of you have probably seen or heard that comment attributed to an unnamed source in the Royals' front office. I am sure that statement was related with a good deal of disgust in the source's voice and certainly understand why.

However, let's get real, shall we? The Royals are 40-61 right now, 3-10 since the All-Star Break. Should anyone in the front office really be surprised that other teams are undervaluing their players? Or, as may actually be the case, that the Royals' front office is overvaluing their own?

Regardless of which, the Royals' front office should not spend the last six hours before the trading deadline under the impression that "giveaway" is a dirty word. Quite frankly, the one thing that Kansas City GM Dayton Moore has actually shown an ability to do is get something for nothing.

At the end of last season, southpaw Tyler Lumsden posted a 7.21 ERA in AAA, walking 18 more batters than he struck out. That came on the heels of a previous season ERA of 5.88 in which Lumsden allowed 141 hits in just 119 innings, plus 59 walks. Folks, that's the kind of pitching that gets you a job at Home Depot.

Despite that track record, Moore was able to ship Lumsden to Houston for outfielder Jordan Parraz, a 24-year-old with some decent numbers, but who had never seen a pitch above A ball. All Parraz has done this season is post an OPS of 1.005 at the AA level and earn a promotion—albeit after missing a month with an injury—to AAA.

I don't know if Parraz will ever translate those AA numbers into any sort of major league value. He may flame out in Omaha or linger on the fringes of the majors as a fourth/fifth outfielder (does anyone carry a fifth outfielder anymore?). It does not matter: Parraz has a better chance than Lumsden did at contributing in the majors.

Here's another case in point: Horacio Ramirez for Paulo Orlando.

In 2007, Ramirez posted a 7.16 ERA in 20 starts for Seattle, walking more than he struck out and allowing 139 hits in just 98 innings. The Royals picked him off the scrap heap and got 24 usable relief innings out of Horacio, which included an 11/1 strikeout to walk ratio, and smartly shipped him off to Chicago before the law of averages caught up with him. They did, by the way, as Ramirez allowed 24 hits and 11 runs in 13 innings for the Sox (8 walks vs. 2 strikeouts, by the way).

In return, Kansas City got an athletic 22-year-old outfielder who hit 20 doubles, 14 triples and 12 home runs, plus he stole 29 bases in 2008 at High A ball. Of course, Orlando struck out 116 times, too, and got off to a horrible start at the same level this season. Still, who would you rather have in the organization, Horacio Ramirez or Paulo Orlando?

Nevermind the fact that Moore obliterated his good move by resigning Ramirez to a ridiculous contract in the off-season. The initial move was a classic something for nothing.

That brings us to today and Ron Mahay. Now, I advocated trading Mahay at last year's trading deadline. At that point in time, the Royals had gotten an excellent half-season out of a 37-year-old pitcher. Of course, the lament at the time was that the value in return was not enough.

Well, here we are again, and Mahay's value is considerably lower than it was one year ago. He is 38-years-old, pitching on a team that is going nowhere, and likely will be out of baseball by the time the Royals are truly in contention. So what if you "give him away?"

Would you trade Mahay for a player with Jordan Parraz's track record as it stood at the end of 2008? How about Orlando's? Is it really a giveaway to make such a trade on the one in 10 chance that the non-prospect you get might end up being a major leaguer? Remember, in May of last year, Mike Aviles was a non-prospect and the year before that, so was Kila Kaahuie.

Where the Royals stand today, it seems logical to trade the likes of Mahay, John Bale and just about any reliever not named Soria for just about any minor leaguer other organizations might have given up on or maybe never believe in.

What's the point, you might ask? Well, what exactly is the point of having Mahay or Bale on this roster at this point in time?

Now, the something for nothing principal does not apply to many of the Royals mentioned in various rumors. If the organization cannot get some actual prospects for a Mark Teahen or a David DeJesus, then they might as well hang onto those two for now. If they cannot get a near major league ready position player for Brian Bannister, then keep him.

When it comes to aging middle relievers and, to some extent, hacking catchers (I'm looking at you Olivo and Buck), then making a move for something is not a trade just to be trading, but instead a decent gamble worth taking.

For Royals, Three Wins Out of Four Is No Reason to Stand Pat

Clark Fosler — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 11:31:56 -0400

The Royals picked up a nice 11-inning win last night in Baltimore to net their second straight win and third victory in the last four games.

The bullpen, which had been so horrible during a disasterous 1-8 homestand, had now thrown nine straight scoreless innings. Willie Bloomquist has set career highs in both steals (17) and home runs (3). Billy Butler continues to develop into a possible middle of the order bat and Alex Gordon is back.

Trust the process, right?

No way.

This is still a horrible defensive team—I think if you gave Frank White the time during a broadcast, he could point out a defensive lapse on EVERY batted ball. Despite the nine scoreless innings, the Royals might possess the must untrustworthy group of bullpen arms (excluding Joakim Soria) in the game, and something tells me that the return of Kyle Farnsworth and Doug Waechter is not exactly a cure.

Plus, more than any other factor, this is still an anemic offense. One that features Willie Bloomquist batting second and Mark Teahen batting fourth and a designated hitter platoon of Mike Jacobs and Miguel Olivo, both of whom have 89 strikeouts and just 59 hits.

This team needs help. More help than just waiting for Jose Guillen, Coco Crisp, and Mike Aviles to get healthy and Alex Gordon to get back in the groove.

Given the state of the Kansas City Royals, even minor moves can make a difference and sometimes those minor moves turn into major acquisitions over time. That brings us (at last!) to today's topic: WLADIMIR BALENTIEN.

The 25-year-old outfielder was designated for assignment by Seattle on July 25, meaning they have 10 days to try to do something with Balentien. This is a chance for the Royals to make a bargain basement deal on a power hitting outfielder. It is also a chance they had once before and neglected to do so.

On March 30, 2008, the Rangers designated outfielder Nelson Cruz for assignment (coincidentally the same day they also designated Robinson Tejeda for assignment). Certainly the end of March is a far better time for teams to try to move players with great talent, but unrealized potential, through the process and keep them in the system than the end of July, so perhaps we can grant a small sliver of forgiveness to the Royals for not pouncing on that opportunity. I distinctly remember at the time thinking this would be a good pickup for Kansas City and even offered up a trade for Cruz later that year in a what if you were the general manager column.

Back in March of 2008, Cruz had a 145 game major league resume that sported a batting line of .231/.282/.385 with an OPS+ of just 73. At age 27, Cruz had logged over 200 games at the AAA level and seemed to be on the road to becoming a career AAAA player. At that time, Nelson had a career minor league line of .291/.344/.513.

As we know, Cruz went on to obliterate AAA in 2008 to the tune of .341/.430/.693 and got a late season callup to Texas. All he did once back in the majors was hit .330/.421/.609, solidified himself as a 2009 regular and played in the All-Star Game this summer.

Now, back to the present. Wladimir Balentien just turned 25 years old and has logged 130 career major league appearances. In that time, he has hit an anemic .209/.260/.359 with an OPS+ of only 65. His career minor league batting line is .273/.345/.526, which includes 186 games at the AAA level.

The Cruz/Balentien comparison is interesting in that both were at roughly the same stages of their careers when designated for assignment. While Cruz was two, almost three, years older at the time of their DFA, he had also started his professional career two years later than Balentein. They had both been up and down between the majors and AAA, although Cruz had essentially an extra half season of AAA ball on his resume.

Let's compare a touch further.

In his first AAA experience of any note (second half of 2005), Nelson Cruz posted an OPS of .872. Balentien's first AAA exposure was a full season in 2007 where he posted an OPS of .871.

Cruz was back in AAA for the 2006 campaign and put up an OPS of .907 the second time around. Balentien's second season AAA OPS was .938. For the entire minor league careers (and keep in mind that includes Cruz's monster half season of AAA ball in 2008), Cruz has an overall OPS of .909, while Balentien's career minor league OPS is .871.

Given that Dayton Moore was willing to give up Daniel Cortes to acquire Yuniesky Betancourt, surely the two teams can reach some sort of accomodation to acquire Balentien as well. Truthfully, is their anyone on the AAA or AA rosters that would be off-limits at this point? Would it even take that much?

The Royals should acquire Balentien and put him in left field for every game the rest of the season. This would push David DeJesus to centerfield, and you could then move Willie Bloomquist to second base. Given what Jacobs and now Olivo are producing, or more accurately not producing, as designated hitters, I would put Alberto Callaspo at DH even if he is not a prototypical designated hitter type.

Under that scenario, the Royals are better. Perhaps they are not dramatically better and the possibility exists that they might not be improved by even one game. What's the risk, however? Does the organization care so much about finishing fourth instead of fifth in the AL Central that they will not allow themselves to take risks like Balentien?

Let's hope not.

Royals' Luke Hochevar Comes Into His Own

Clark Fosler — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 10:27:25 -0400

It is possible that Luke Hochevar is just on a hot streak—much as Kyle Davies was last September when many of us thought he might well have emerged as a true No. 3 starter for the Royals. After Saturday's 13 strikeout-no walk performance, however, it might also be safe to say that the former No. 1 overall pick is, at last, becoming a legitimate middle of the rotation starter.

Considering that over his last six starts, Hochevar has compiled a 3.44 earned run average while throwing at least six innings in each, striking out 38, and walking just eight, calling Hochevar a middle of the rotation guy might actually be understating his value. We will let the last two months of the season play out before officially ordaining Hochevar as a "legit No. 2" or, at least, a "solid No. 3," but for now you have to be impressed by what Hochevar has accomplished recently.

In his two starts since the All-Star Break, Hochevar has thrown 13.1 innings, allowing just 12 hits and four earned runs. The striking numbers, however, are the TWENTY-FOUR strikeouts and ZERO walks. Considering that he averaged less than six strikeouts per nine innings in both 2008 and 2009 (before the last two starts), those numbers are something to get excited about.

Given that the Rangers and Rays rank second and fourth in baseball in striking out, you can temper those numbers just a tad. However, it is worth noting that the Rays also rank second in walks and yet were not able to get to Luke for even one free pass. Besides, the Rangers are not striking out 13 times against just everyone.

The obvious question is: has there been a real change that has led to Hochevar's increased strikeouts? In checking the outstanding numbers provided by Fangraphs and Brook's Baseball, we can indeed some that, at least for the last two starts, Luke has had a different approach.

In 2008, Hochevar 59.2 percent of the pitches Hochevar threw were fastballs and in 2009 that percentage is virtually the same (59.9 percent). Almost 10 percent of the time in 2008, Hochevar threw a changeup, but that pitch has all but disappeared from his repetoire in 2009 with Luke tossing it just 2.2 percent of the time.

As a result of throwing fewer changeups, Hochevar is (rather obviously) throwing more sliders and curves. The percentages breakdown like this.

2008 Sliders—21.0%

2009 Sliders—25.9%

2008 Curves—9.5%

2009 Curves—12.1%

That only begins to tell the story, however. In his two post-break starts, Luke's pitch selections have skewed even further to the breaking pitches.

July 19th vs. Tampa Bay: 6.1IP, 7H, 2ER, 0BB, 9SO

Fastballs—47 (48.5%)

Sliders—35 (36.1%)

Curves—8 (8.2%)

Cutters—7 (7.2%)

July 25th vs. Texas: 7IP, 5H, 2ER, 0BB, 13SO

Fastballs—44 (39.3%)

Sliders—35 (31.3%)

Curves—30 (26.8%)

Cutters—3 (2.7%)

As an aside, I am not going to talk much about the cutters as I think the pitch data sometimes gets confused with cutters and regular fastballs. I can tell you that Hochevar's cutter percentage in both 2008 and 2009 is almost zero and it is possible that what is being counted as a cutter might just be a fastball with a bunch of movement.

What we can see from the above breakdowns is that Luke Hochevar has not thrown a changeup for two weeks and has now started to throw breaking pitches, not only when he used to throw changes, but also when he might have used his fastball in the past.

For some pitchers, this might be a warning sign: a signal that the hurler is trying to be "too cute" or "nibble." In the case of Hochevar, it might simply be a sign that he has gotten comfortable with his breaking stuff to the point that both slider and curve are legitimate "out" pitches.

As you can see from the above, Luke went to the curve often against the Rangers, but barely used it against the Rays. That two different approaches led to back-to-back high strikeout quality starts would seem to indicate that Hochevar is becoming a force to be reckoned with on the mound.

We will not have to wait long to find out if opposing hitters can catch up to the new and improved Luke Hochevar. His next start this Friday will be against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have already encountered the post-break Luke.

Will the Rays now look for more breaking stuff and force Hochevar back to more fastballs and the resulting consequence of having to rely on the Royals' awful defense? Or will the fact that Hochevar displayed just eight curves on July 19 give Luke the edge once more?

While Hochevar may spend his Kansas City career being known as "the guy we drafted instead of Tim Lincecum," a few more starts like the previous two will make that statement not quite as painful.

Does Dayton Moore Have the KC Royals on the Road to Oblivion?

Clark Fosler — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 13:47:23 -0400

From the Kansas City Star this morning:

Moore points to the club's 18-11 start, prior to the onset of injuries to several key players, as validation of the organization's approach.

"I go back to the same thing all of the time," he said. "If our processes were so poor, how were we able to put together a pretty good team in the off-season? We went through the process, and most people around baseball felt we were vastly improved.

"That's what we have tried to do in repairing some of the injuries that have occurred. That's all I can say."

I originally was going to write about the trade value of David DeJesus this morning, but the quote above and the rest of that story in The Star certainly made me believe that discussing trade values of any of the major players on the Royals' roster might just be a waste of time.

Sure, Dayton Moore's public comments could just be posturing to make the Royals appear to other teams as less desperate to make moves, but I think that is somewhat unlikely. Moore and the entire organization are in the bunker now: Their identities as elite 'baseball people' are tied to this team and they simply may not allow themselves to blow up this squad.

This is an organization that has seen its bullpen implode in spectacular fashion and do so while playing the Tampa Bay Rays whose closer is ex-Royal J.P. Howell. As Howell was saving three straight games against Kansas City, the player received in exchanged for him, Joey Gathright, was on the disabled list...for the Norfolk Tides.

Worse yet, as the Royals front office bemoaned the injuries that have struck this club—and there have been many without a doubt—they were getting swept by the Angels: A team that currently has Vladimir Guerroro and Torii Hunter on the disabled list and has played the better part of the season with three-fifths of its starting rotation out of action.

Sure, the Royals did trade one of their top minor league pitching prospects to Seattle for Yuniseky Betancourt, but that move was the result of last year's rookie phenom, Mike Aviles, going down with injury and likely out until the middle of next season. That, and the realization, even among those who were his biggest fans, that Tony Pena Jr. was, indeed, historically awful at the plate.

Such a trade was not a hit to the collective organizational ego so much as a 'look at what we were able to do!' sort of deal. Nevermind that the numbers say Betancourt's defense is in steep decline and that he may, now that Tony Pena Jr. is not a regular, be the worst offensive regular in the majors.

Okay, let me step away for a second and say, as a Royals' fan, that I hope this is one case where the baseball minds are correct and that the numbers are not giving a true picture of Yunieksy Betancourt.

I would LOVE to be wrong and delight in spending the next two and one-half seasons watching Betancourt play stellar defense and hit with some pop. If I'm writing a column in 2011 about how the Royals must resign Betancourt and move Jeff Bianchi (currently the AA shortstop) to second to get him in the lineup, then life will be good and I will happily admit being wrong back in those dark days of 2009.

Coming back to reality, the Betancourt may be it as far as major moves, if that even qualifies, this summer.

I fully expect something minor: a swap of relievers, maybe Carlos Rosa for a AA level position player, or possibly a trade of one of the team's three catchers for, well, something. Nothing, however, that could even tickle the boundaries of major.

Jose Guillen, with his unique combination of injuries, contract and attitude, is immovable. With Gil Meche battling injuries, Sidney Ponson being himself and Bruce Chen simply being a back of the rotation starter in AAA, the Royals seem less and less likely to move Brian Bannister.

Two months ago, a lot of teams might have had interest in pieces of the bullpen, but not even their manager wants them now. Mike Jacobs? C'mon, get serious.

That brings us back to the core group of David DeJesus, Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and, dare we say it, Alberto Callaspo. If you are not going to trade starting pitching or Joakim Soria, then there is your talent pool that might net something of worth in return.

Those guys, at least the first four, are not going anywhere: The Royals' brass has tied their success to those players being good enough to compete. Simply put, the Royals' like those guys way more than the other 29 teams do.

The funny thing about that is that, with the exception of Callaspo, none of those are 'Dayton Moore' guys. They were all inherited from the previous regime, as was Zack Greinke and, in a kind of weird way, Luke Hochevar.

In fact, of the core group that Dayton Moore seems to believe is so close to contending had it not been for injuries, bad luck and an apparent ill-timed misalignment of the planets and stars, only half are 'his' guys. Yet, I don't believe that Moore's ego will allow himself to recognize that this group probably is not good enough.

Moore has often remarked that you cannot assume that you are somehow smarter than the other 29 general managers in baseball. It strikes me that, this July, Mr. Moore might be wise to take his own advice.

Kansas Royals Blow Three Straight Leads As Joakim Soria Watches

Clark Fosler — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 13:52:00 -0400

"I'm right there with them," Hillman said. "I want Soria in the game, too. But I'm not going to sell my soul to the devil for a guy that's already had two major arm injuries in my estimation." - Royals.com.

That quote was offered after the Royals' Saturday night loss to Tampa Bay. As detailed by Craig yesterday, the entire series was a calamity of bullpen meltdowns—none of which included Joakim Soria. If you like sarcasm, you have to read Rany's column on Sunday—what makes it funny is that it comes perilously close to being plausible.

At any rate, the bottom line of the Tampa series was Trey Hillman's absolute refusal to use Joakim Soria for "more than four outs." Would this be a big deal if the setup men had managed to hold even one lead?

Maybe not, but the fact is that the rest of the bullpen blew three straight eighth inning leads coming out of the All-Star Break when fatigue was a factor for no one and gaining some momentum was imperative for a team teetering on the brink of falling into the "just plain awful" category.

Now, before we get into this too far, let me be clear that I am not advocating that Trey Hillman should have gone to Soria in all three games this past weekend. I am saying that he should have gone to him on Saturday, after the bullpen had collapsed on Friday and with Zack Greinke giving you a quality start. If not then, then for damn sure on Sunday after the bullpen had blown two straight leads and Soria was now sitting on a full week's rest.

Also, as Craig pointed out, with Sidney Ponson and Bruce Chen starting your next two games against the Angels, what are the odds that a closer will be needed anyway?

Getting back to our actual topic, one of the main arguments I have heard supporting Soria's non-use was that "closers pitch in the ninth inning, that's what closers are for and that's why they are called closers."

Listen, it is comments like that that make Dayton Moore think he can justify the Betancourt move by saying that "he has access to information most don't, such as next year's salary numbers, possible arbitration outcomes, status of prospects, the draft prospects over the next couple of years and the pending free agent crop," and think people will actually buy it.

Anyway, the Royals have used Joakim Soria in the eighth inning four times this season—twice when they were behind by four runs or more. Hillman went to Joakim on June 11th in the eighth in Cleveland and he gave blew the save. Soria was also called on to get four outs in Boston on July 9, this time coming through with the save.

In 2008, Soria pitched six times in the eighth inning, but only three of those appearances were in pressure situations. That is a total of five eighth inning "pressure situation" appearances over 86 appearances the last two seasons.

By contrast, the Yankees have gone to Mariano Rivera, who is fifteen years older than Soria, in the same situation six different times this season: five in save situations and once with the game tied.

In 2008, they used Rivera 11 times in the eighth inning: ten save situations and one tie game.

That is a total of sixteen eighth-inning pressure situation appearances in 103 appearances.

The Red Sox have used closer Jonathan Papelbon just three times in 8th inning pressure situations in 2009, but they went to him TWELVE times in 2008—nine of those in save situations and twice when they led by four runs. That is still a total of twelve 8th inning pressure situation appearances over 107 games the past two seasons.

Both New York and Boston have gone to their closers for more than the standard three out save at a much higher rate than the Royals have gone to Soria. Now, to be fair, you can make the argument that both teams have had eighth inning leads more often and to also be fair, it should be noted that the Angels have never used closer Brian Fuentes in the eighth and the Twins have gone to Joe Nathan just twice this season.

The point is not that you should always go to your closer in the eighth or even make a habit of it, but instead that teams actually do go to their closer in that inning on occasion.

I certainly believe that when your closer has not pitched in six days and your bullpen is in complete disarray, a Sunday afternoon eighth inning appearance is certainly in order.

Oh, but what about the injuries? My god! The injuries!

Yes, Joakim Soria had elbow surgery...in 2003. He also had shoulder trouble...in 2006. Of course, he also had some shoulder soreness—although no one could find any structural trouble whatsoever—this season, but that injury did not keep Trey Hillman from going to Soria in the eighth inning in just his third appearance back from the disabled list.

Nor, after he threw 21 pitches in that June 11 four out appearance did it keep Hillman from going back to Soria for 23 more pitches just two days later on June 13.

For that matter, the Royals went to Soria on three consecutive days in early July, with Joakim throwing 45 total pitches over three days (striking out six in three innings and walking none, by the way) and then, after two days rest, went to back to him for the dreaded EIGHTH INNING APPEARANCE.

Let us also keep in mind that Soria, given that he recently went through a stretch of one inning appearances that took 11, 15, 12 and 13 pitches total, is quite likely to get five outs in something less than 25 pitches. Does that really strike anyone as "overuse" or "risking injury?" Particularly when we are talking about one game, not a string of games?

Bottom line, the Royals are almost compelled to think outside the box. They simply have too many weaknesses to play the game by the book and hope to be better than the other team.

Does one game really matter? I don't know, but I would much rather have woken up Monday morning having won at least one game over the weekend instead of being swept at home.

Dayton Moore's Defining Moment

Clark Fosler — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 13:12:34 -0400

To the national media, the Royals' trade for Yuniesky Betancourt was a somewhat minor transaction: partly because of the two cities involved and partly because of the players involved.

To those of us who doggedly follow the Royals, however, this trade was a big, big deal, and one that was almost universally disparaged.

Craig did an excellent job of summing up what Betancourt has accomplished, or rather not accomplished, in his four seasons in the majors (look at it this way, Craig, you already have your Betancourt entry for the 2010 Annual written).

The rest of the unjournalistic bloggers and the highly-regarded journalistic columnists (and those who reside somewhere in between) supplied as many columns on the subject as any event in recent memory.

Now, lately, we are getting some 'settle down and let this trade play out' kind of talk.

The Border Patrol on 810 Radio ran down a list of minor league prospects that did NOT make it in an effort to calm the savages.

In some ways, however, the logic that is in support of trade is more damning than that used by those who are outraged by this deal.

Listen, when the main arguments supporting the trade are that "Betancourt is not horrible" and "Cortes probably was not that good," that's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

At any rate, this trade (be it good, bad, major or minor) will define the tenure of Dayton Moore as general manager of the Royals.

Allard Baird traded an All-Star in Jermaine Dye for shortstop Nefii Perez and pretty much forever set the floor for bad trades (although David Cone for Ed Hearn gives it a serious run for the money) and he rightfully never got out from under the shadow of that disaster.

Given that Yuniesky Betancourt is likely going to be the Royals shortstop for the next two seasons at least, Dayton Moore is going to be judged every day by this trade.

Quite frankly, if Cortes is in the Mariner rotation in 2011 while Betancourt is getting on base at a .290 clip with 25 errors, Moore will no longer be the general manager of this team.

You can trade relievers for injury risks (Crisp), windmills (Jacobs) and iron hands (Callaspo) for years and get away with it. Trade a future starter for a bad fielding, swing at all costs, attitude-laden shortstop and people (namely owners) will eventually say that's enough.

Now, it is possible that the Royals are right and everyone else is wrong on this (the law of averages dictate that this will eventually happen sometime).

Betancourt might wake up and realize the supposed potential that the organization claims is there. Maybe Willie Bloomquist is right in that Yuniesky just needs a wakeup call and either a gentle prod or full-blown kick in the you-know-what.

Betancourt could, maybe, just possibly, emerge as something of a poor man's Miguel Tejeda.

Dan Cortes might never make it to the majors or, if he does, never be a regular in anyone's rotation.

Derrick Saito is as likely to disappear into the morass of minor league middle relievers as he is to ever throw a pitch in Safeco Field.

If those two guys are non-factors from now until 2013, then this trade will fade out as not that big a deal.

After all, Betancourt is blocking no one—other than to steal some at-bats from Willie Bloomquist, which we can all live with.

Mike Aviles is likely out until early summer of next season and probably will reemerge (IF he reemerges) as a second baseman and not a shortstop.

Jeff Bianchi has been in AA for less than a month, and the next shortstop after that with any potential is still in rookie ball (Yowill Espinal or Deivy Batista, take your pick).

Still, if Cortes is a rotation regular and Betancourt is who the stats say he is, then Dayton Moore will never get out from under the shadow of this deal.

This is a deal frought with risk for the Royals and one, as Rany points out, that probably did not need to be made with such urgency.

Closer to the deadline, Betancourt might have come cheaper and in the interim, the Royals could have shopped Cortes as part of a package for something (anything?!) bigger and better.

Pitching, as we all know, is "the currency of baseball" and Dayton Moore spent some of his at the first shop he went into (kind of like my wife at The Plaza).

It was, without question, a bold move.

The problem is, bold moves are not always smart moves.

Does Mark Teahen Have Trade Value?

Clark Fosler — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:59:57 -0400

It is definitely trade rumor season—I even did my own little part by speculating that the Ryan Freel acquisition was a precursor to more moves by the Royals. Now, Bob Dutton at the Kansas City Star believes that move makes the Royals buyers, not sellers, but I still stand by my sentiment that there are moves yet to come.

While there has been talk swirling around Brian Bannister and even Gil Meche as of late, the primary rumor name on the offensive side of the ball has been Mark Teahen.

I have no idea if Kansas City is seriously shopping him or not, but he is an interesting discussion topic, given that three players with similar, but certainly not identical, skill sets have already been dealt. That gives us some idea of what the trade market actually might be—at least at this point in time.

Let’s break down the three deals:

Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals

At 34, Mark DeRosa is seven years older than Teahen and came into 2009 with 893 major league games and 2,650 at-bats under his belt. He sported a career line of .279/.348/.422 playing second, third and the outfield, and was right on target prior to his trade this season (.270/.342/.457).

DeRosa did not get regular playing time until 2006 and had three remarkably similar seasons:

2006: .296/.357/.456

2007: .293/.371/.420

2008: .285/.376/.481

Having hit a career-high 21 home runs in 2008 (along with 30 doubles), DeRosa is on his way to matching or surpassing that number with 13 homers already in 2009.

In return for DeRosa, the Indians received 23-year-old reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later. In Perez, you have a strikeout pitcher who saved seven games for the Cards in 2008 and struck out 42 hitters in 41.2 innings of major league work.

In the minors, Perez averaged 12 strikeouts per nine innings. He has a 9.8 K/9 mark in 67 innings of major league work. He could very well develop into a premier closer in the next couple of years, and at worst he probably profiles out to something like Juan Cruz. I think you could reasonably equate Perez’s current value to that of Leo Nunez or Ramon Ramirez.

The PTBNL is speculated to be another power reliever, possibly Jess Todd or Francisco Samuel. Todd was a second-round pick in 2007, is also 23 years old and is the closer for the Card’s AAA club in Memphis. He is currently sporting a 46/9 K/BB ratio over 37 innings of work after posting extremely good numbers as a starter across three different levels in 2008.

Todd destroys right-handed hitters with a cut fastball and excellent slider. Although their stuff is different, in "organizational stature" I would offer up Carlos Rosa as a comparison, although Todd has certainly enjoyed greater success this season in his move to the bullpen.

Samuel is 22 years old with a big fastball and nasty slider. He is operating at the High A level this year, having struck out 39 batters in 31 innings, but also walking 28. If Samuel can get at least some control (his career walk rate is almost one per inning) he will be virtually impossible to hit. I guess you could compare him to a Henry Barrera from the Royals system.

The Indians were after young, power arms for their bullpen and, if the PTBNL turns out to be Jess Todd, they got two major-league-ready ones.

Eric Hinske to the Yankees

Now, another "corner guy" who recently switched teams was 31-year-old Eric Hinske. A former rookie of the year winner, Hinske brought 957 games and 3,012 big league at-bats worth of experience to the Yankees.

His career line stands at .254/.337/.436 with 106 homers, but after smacking 20 home runs in 381 at-bats for the Rays in 2008, Hinske had a slugging percentage of just .368 in 106 at-bats for the Pirates prior to the trade.

In return, Pittsburgh netted two players currently in High A-ball, both of whom will turn 24 in August.

Eric Fryer is a catcher who slugged .506 in 2008 with 15 steals, but was slugging just .344 in 2009 with 11 steals through 59 games. Originally a tenth-round pick of Milwaukee in 2007, the Pirates will be Fryer’s third organization in three years. There are a lot of "Fryer types" in every organization, and the Royals have Ryan Eigsti and Joe Billick as examples.

The second player acquired was right-hander Casey Erickson who has 60 minor league games and 23 starts under his belt—all at A-ball or below. Over 182 innings, he has allowed 197 hits, walked 43 and struck out 169 on his way to a nice 3.07 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He is quite obviously old for his level. I might compare him in value to a Matt Kniginyzky or Edward Paulino of the Royals’ system.

Scott Hairston to Oakland

The final trade we will examine is that of Scott Hairston to Oakland in exchange for Ryan Webb, Craig Italiano, AND a PTBNL.

In Hairston, you have a 29-year-old, who has played some second and third but is mostly an outfielder at this point. Over 398 major league games, Scott has compiled a modest line of .257/.314/.470 with 51 homers, and has never appeared in more than 112 games in any one season.

In return, the Athletics gave up their 2004 fourth-round pick in right hander Ryan Webb. Added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this past offseason, Webb had converted almost exclusively to relief this season at AAA. He had thrown 44.2 innings, struck out 37, walked 15 and allowed 57 hits at the time of this trade.

Over his minor league career, Webb had thrown 550 innings with a 5.30 ERA, averaging 7.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. The Royals do not really have a comparable pitcher to Webb at the AAA level, but you can pretty much see what you are getting here.

Twenty-three year old Craig Italiano was a prospect after posting 1.16 ERA over 14 Low A-ball starts in 2008, but imploded to a 9.90 ERA upon his promotion to the High A level. Still at High A this season, Craig had 75 strikeouts in 76.2 innings, but had also been tagged for 40 walks and 83 hits on his way to a 5.63 ERA.

Keep in mind, however, that this is all in the California League, which is something other than "pitcher friendly." Although their styles are nothing alike, I might assign Italiano a value similar to Rowdy Hardy’s prior to the season.

Rumors are that the Player To Be Named Later will be "significant" in this deal, so it makes it even harder to evaluate, but the Padres certainly got more out this deal than the Pirates did out of the Hinske trade.

So, where does Mark Teahen fit into these scenarios? Let’s compare the career lines of the players:

DeRosa (34)—.279/.348/.422

Hinske (31)—.254/.337/.436

Hairston (29)—.257/.314/.470

Teahen (27)—.268/.332/.421

Looking at those numbers and, most importantly, the age of each player certainly gives Royals’ fans some hope that should Dayton Moore decide to pull the trigger on a Teahen trade that they might net more in return than any of the other three players.

Sure, DeRosa is the better player right now, but he is seven years old and more expensive than Teahen. He brought a major league reliever with upside and either another major league ready reliever or a power arm with a boatload of potential in return. Given that, would it be completely unrealistic to expect a nearly major league ready position player in return for Mark?

Perhaps that is wishful thinking, perhaps it is not. This time next month, we will know for sure.

Gil Meche Dominates Diamondbacks

Clark Fosler — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:45:34 -0400

The focus of this column today will be squarely on Gil Meche and the fantastic job he did last night in hurling a four-hit shutout, but I would be remiss if I didn't note just how poorly the Arizona Diamondbacks played last night.

To steal a quote from Nate Bukaty on this morning's show on WHB, "Arizona was charged with three errors last night and I don't think any of those were the three worst defensive plays they made."

A lost fly ball turned into a double, a dropped bloop fly (tough, but makeable play) for another double—Mike Jacobs must have good karma to be the beneficiary of both of those—and a cutoff throw that I'm pretty sure might have nailed a Royal runner at the plate.

Hey, the Royals have played enough of those games themselves to deserve being on the other side for a change.

None of that, however, should take anything away from the job Meche did last night.

Meche pitched a complete game only allowing four singles (two of the infield variety), one walk, and six strikeouts on his way to the shutout. It was a continuation of a dominant stretch of pitching that began on May 30 (his 11th start of the year) when Gil held the White Sox to two runs over seven innings. Since that game, Meche has thrown 29 innings, allowed just 19 hits, three runs, walked 11 and struck out 26 on his way to fashioning a 0.93 ERA.

Sound familiar?

In 2008, after struggling early, Meche started his 11th game on May 25 and from that point on threw 150.2 innings, allowing only 140 hits and 56 runs, walking 52 and fanning 140, with an ERA of 3.34. He pitched six innings or more in 19 of those 24 starts and NEVER pitched less than five innings over that stretch.

While 2007 did not follow the same pattern (3.10 ERA prior to start 11, 4.20 afterward), it appears that Gil might be settling in once more as the weather heats up and could very well be ready to give the Royals a devastating one-two punch at the top of the rotation.

Is that enough to run down the Tigers? Probably not, but it is enough to keep a .500 record in sight for this team.

Of course the rub of last night will be the pitch count: 132 in all.

As Royals fans, we have all become conditioned to see the dark lining of every silver cloud. Invariably, there will be some concern, maybe even angst, over the fact that Gil tossed those 132 pitches last night (only Roy Halladay has thrown more in one game this year—although it should be noted that at no point have I heard that Roy's arm has completely fallen off).

I have to tell you, pitch counts kind of bug me. On one hand, I pay a great deal of attention to them, if for no other reason that the bigger that number gets, the closer we get to seeing Trey Hillman make a bullpen decision. On the other hand, I actually despise those (both inside and outside the game) who are certain that 98 pitches never hurt anyone and 106 is a death sentence.

In the case of Meche in particular, pitch counts have less relevance than for anyone else on the Royals' staff. After last night, Gil has hurled over 1,300 innings in his career and 510.2 in two years and two-and-one-half months as a Royal.

This is not a fragile 23-year-old who has never touched triple digits in pitch counts, this is Gil freaking Meche.

Before last night, Meche had thrown 110 or more pitches 26 different times as a Royal. He had tossed 120 or more pitches four times prior to Tuesday evening. This is hardly uncharted territory.

Frankly, after Miguel Olivo threw out Gerardo Parra to end the eighth inning, Meche deserved the chance to go for the shutout, and standing at 110 pitches with just a slight decline in velocity after eight innings, there was no reason not to send him out for the ninth.

Had it not been for a 10-pitch Stephen Drew at-bat to end the game, the pitch count would have stayed in the low 120s—certainly no cause for alarm.

Now, those of you who watched the game on television, heard John Buck observe that "Gil is pretty much gassed" when Drew game to the plate.

Without a doubt, Meche was pitching more on adrenaline and experience than stuff at that point, but isn't that what being a staff leader is all about?

Is it a stretch to say that finishing off that game might have spoken volumes to the likes of Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies?

I think it does.

The ace of this pitching staff is certainly Zack Greinke.

The leader of this staff, without question, is Meche. Maybe it was just the Diamondbacks and just interleague play, but that was a big-time performance by Meche on Tuesday night.

At this point, would you expect anything less?

This Year, Next Year Or The Year After That For The Royals?

Clark Fosler — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:20:29 -0400

I analyze Gil Meche starts as much, maybe more than starts by Zack Greinke. Gil Meche is my favorite Royal right now and let me tell you, whoever that was wearing his jersey yesterday was NOT Gil Meche.

Actually, it was Gil Meche, but not the Gil Meche we have known for the past two seasons. It strikes me that Meche is simply out of sync: kind of like you get on a bad day on the golf course. You know your swing is wrong, but you can't get it fixed.

My guess is that over the course of worrying about his back, he is pitching with greater fatigue because of it that Meche has messed up his mechanics. I hope that is all that it is and not yet another closely guarded secret injury (Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman apparently have gone to the Kansas State Football School of Injury Non-Disclosure seminar). Just one simple thought (hand placement, foot landing, pressure on your big toe—I don't know, but Bob McClure surely does) might be all it takes for Meche to get back in the groove, assuming he really is healthy.

At any rate, the Royals wake up on the first morning after Memorial Day one game below .500, four games out of first in the AL Central, having lost 12 of their last 16 ballgames.

Do you find it interesting, by the way, that Brian Bannister has won as many starts in that stretch than the rest of the rotation combined?

Chances are that had I told you the Royals would be where they are right now, back on March 31, you would have taken that in a heartbeat. The problem is that the Royals surged out to an 18-11 start, got many fans all excited about something called the playoffs—which, as Royals fans, we are either totally unfamiliar with or have almost totally forgotten what they were.

It all begs the question: play for this year or next?

If you really believe the Royals can make a run at the playoffs in 2009, then you have to ask yourself a very simple question: is this team for real or just playing somewhat decently in a bad division? Basically, can you add to the current Royals squad to make a run at the post-season in 2009 and THEN take that same squad and make a run at the 2010 post-season as well?

If you answered yes, then one would be prudent to go out and offer a Dan Cortes for Jack Wilson (that is an entirely speculative statement based upon nothing. I don't know if Cortes is enough or if Wilson is really a good example, but it is a decent talking point).

In Wilson, the Royals would get quality above average defense at shortstop and at least some offense—although Jack is no run producing dynamo. Should you really believe you can make a run, the Royals probably need to overpay to get another bat.

I would hope, for one, that preferably gets Jose Guillen out of right field

Now, to do that means the Royals would have to eat a bunch of salary, give up some real prospects AND gamble that whomever you bring in (Matt Holliday?) both produces and can be locked up long term. Big gambles that if they turn into Juan Gonzalez could once again cripple the team's chances for the next couple of years.

Given that I now look at the Detroit Tigers and see a formidable opponent—frankly, if Dontrelle Willis is really back and Zumaya, too, I can see them simply running away from the entire division—the above scenarios, or derivations thereof, simply are too problematic.

The saner course of action would seem to be that the Royals grind along as is, which is probably good enough to stay within a few game either way of the .500 mark. Most of us thought this was a 77 to 84 win team and they really have done nothing to change that so far.

Teams that end up around .500 seldom do so by playing .500 ball all year. They are more likely to win six in a row, then lose 12 of 16, and come back to string together another five or six wins. It can make your stomach hurt and your hair fall out, but it is how .500 teams behave.

Now, if you are willing to muddle through 2009, better than some teams not as good as some others, then you assess your team and make some decisions. This is a bad defensive team and right now, it doesn't hit well enough. The pitching is probably okay, with bullpen arms to help as high as AA and a bunch of starting arms in A ball. At minimum, your pitching is good enough to address other issues.

The obvious place to look at with a critical eye is right field. Trading Jose Guillen for Jeff Franceour is not a good deal. Trading him for Gorkys Hernandez might be. Without a doubt, the Royals would have to eat some salary (something they seldom do) and I'm not sure if Guillen on his own is enough to get a decent prospect back anyway, but it is a starting point.

Maybe a good move would be that when Alex Gordon comes back, the Royals could try to move Mark Teahen at the deadline. Maybe another team jumps at one of the two catchers in John Buck or Miguel Olivo.

Whatever the deal, those are all moves you could make that would not significantly change the makeup of the Royals in 2010 and 2011 and hopefully make them better in those years. The risk is relatively low (Jose Guillen is not going to get any quicker, Mark Teahen might be okay, but never great, and Buck and Olivo are no all-stars), and even if you do have to package in some prospects, the Royals seem to have enough intriguing arms to move a couple and still have a good stock to push through the system.

If I were the GM, I would at least kick the tires on this plan of action.

The final possible move is a little more sinister and certainly a public relations nightmare at a time when interest in the Royals is starting to pick up. If your the Royals, you only resort to this option if you truly believe that Billy Butler and Alex Gordon will never become more than decent No. 6 and No. 7 hitters. If you believe that Mike Aviles is done, that Alberto Callaspo is a .285 hitter instead of a .325 hitter and David DeJesus is in decline.

If you believe all of that, or a fair portion thereof, then you get bold and make big, bold moves.

You work up a package around a Gordon or Butler, probably one that includes Cortes and others, and get big time, high risk/high reward, prospects in return. The Royals won't and probably should not do this, but it is something to consider if this team finds itself 10 games under .500 and sinking fast in July. As much as the Royals seem to have improved, the possibility remains that this current group may simply not be good enough.

I think from reading the above, you can get a pretty clear idea of the option I advocate, but to be honest, I cannot really rule out playing for this year, either, and even looking past next year to further into the future.

Analyzing the Kansas City Royals' Offense So Far

Clark Fosler — Tue, 12 May 2009 10:37:30 -0400

Zack Greinke has been a revelation thus far in 2009 and the rest of the Kansas City Royals pitching staff has been quite good also. As Greinke's 1-0 loss to the Angels last Saturday night illustrates, this Royals team will need to find some consistent offense if it hopes to contend. After starting the month of May by scoring forty-two runs in six games, Kansas City has since scored just seven in their last four contests. Let's take a look at how the current lineup grades out and what needs to happen for the Royals to get enough offense to support a pitching staff that has the second best earned run average in the American League.

Begin Slideshow

Kansas City Royals' Winter Roster Questions

Clark Fosler — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 10:29:42 -0500

Pretty much lost at the end of yesterday's KC Star article in which Dayton Moore proclaimed the Royals 'might be done' this off-season was a paragraph on the current 40 man roster setup.

Although the team has just 39 players on its 40-man roster right now, they have to activate from the 60-day disabled list five additional players no later than November 14th. By November 20th, the winter roster must be finalized in preparation for the Rule 5 draft. What's that mean? Well...

Let's start with the five players currently on the 60 day DL: Ryan Braun, Luke Hochevar, Luke Hudson, Carlos Rosa and Shane Costa.

Without question, the Royals will activate and keep on their 40-man both Hochevar and Rosa. Although that puts them one over the limit, that is not really a problem as the current 40-man roster has the likes of Jeff Fulchino and Josh Newman on it.

Luke Hudson is surely going to be cut loose and likely will make it back through to the minor league roster after going unclaimed.

Coming off of an injury himself, I would think Ryan Braun might be able to do the same—it's probably worth the risk to try that and save a roster spot.

Shane Costa's time has probably run with the Royals, but all things being equal he might be worth keeping on the 40 man roster over a Jason Smith.

Okay, let's say the Royals activate and keep Hochevar, Rosa and Costa, try to pass Braun and Hudson through waivers and then release Jeff Fulchino and Jason Smith to create space on the 40 man roster. They now have a full complement of forty, but the Rule 5 is looming.

The Star article listed 11 minor leaguers who it was reported the club was going to 'discuss' in regard to adding some of them to the roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

Four position players were listed, none of whom really seem to be guys that a team would draft and carry on their major league roster all year. The four: Chris Lubanski, Jose Duarte, Chris McConnell and Brian McFall. Duarte has upside, McConnell is a shortstop who can play defense, McFall has some pop and Lubanski was a first round pick.

None of that is enough to justify taking up a spot on some teams 25 man roster in 2009.

The pitchers listed, however, are a different deal. Royals' fans, more than anyone else, should know the value of a Rule 5 drafteee out of your bullpen. The team has benefited from past draftees such as Billy Brewer, D.J. Carrasco, Andrew Sisco and a guy named Soria, to name a few.

Given that, let's take a quick look at the pitchers in question.

Juan Abreu

As a 23-year-old, he was old for the Midwest League, but did strikeout 12.3 batters per nine innings after missing all of the 2007 season due to injury. Given his age and the ability to make people miss, a team might take a look at Abreu.

On the other hand, a 23-year-old with only 178 minor league career innings, none above Low A, may be too much of a reach for anyone. Probably the Royals just leave Abreu exposed and see what happens.

Greg Atencio

He's been in the organization since 2002, long enough that three of the cities he played in are no longer in the Royals' minor league system. He had a decent year in 2008 splitting time between AA and AAA, after having a pretty cruddy year in 2007 splitting time between AA and AAA. At 26 years old and sporting a career minor league ERA of 5.12, you kind of wonder why this guy's name comes up at all.

Henry Barrera

Picked in the 5th round of the 2004 draft, Barrera had three pretty non-descript seasons before striking out 12.17 batters per 9 innings this past season in High A Wilimington. With a WHIP of 1.23 and a better than 3 strikeouts to every one walk, the 22 year old looks exactly like the kind of guy that teams take a chance on in the Rule 5 draft.

Dusty Hughes

The 26 year old lefty had a very nice 2007 in AA, followed by a good Arizona Fall League. He came right back in 2008 and pitched extremely well for half a season in AA, then fell flat after being promoted to AAA. His strikeouts went down, his walks went up and his home run allowed rate nearly tripled. That enough information for you?

Blake Johnson

Part of the Odalis Perez trade, the former 2nd round pick of the Dodgers say his 2008 ERA go up by a run and a half over his numbers the previous season in Wilmington.

Still just 23 years old, Johnson is worth holding onto. However, the Royals likely do not have to protect him as minor league starters who project out as back of the rotation guys don't get their names called in the Rule 5.

Chris Nicoll

The Royals' 3rd round pick in 2005, Nicoll was outstanding in 2006, awful in 2007, and outstanding once more in 2008. After striking out 49 and walking only 15 in 43 innings for Wilmington, Nicoll was promoted to AA NW Arkansas and struck out 55 and walked 8 in 44 innings.

If the Royals don't protect him, someone WILL take him. As it stands, Kansas City almost certainly will add Nicoll to the 40 man roster and give him some shot to make the 2009 big league pen next spring.

Mario Santiago

As a starter, Santiago posted an ERA of 3.74 in 132 innings at Low A ball in 2007, then followed that up with an ERA of 3.43 in 142 innings in High A ball this past season. At 23 years of age, Mario has always been a touch old for the level he was at and has never been a strikeout pitcher (5.3 K/9 over his career). Worth hanging onto, not worth protecting and very unlikely to be picked by another team.

So, who do you like better, Chris Nicoll or Josh Newman?

Easy one: Newman released, Nicoll added to the 40 man roster.

Not quite as easy, but probably a move I would make is to also protect Henry Barrera. Doing that, might also be easy, if the Royals and Mark Grudzielanek move forward as expected and the veteran second baseman takes the free agency route.

If I were general manager, those are probably all the moves I make prior to November 20th. If the Royals wanted to create more space (to pick someone in the Rule 5 or protect a Blake Johnson), they still have the abysmal Tyler Lumsden on the 40 man roster, along with Brandon Duckworth, Neal Musser and Tony Pena Jr. Frankly, the roster maneuverings required prior to November 20th do not seem too hard to this writer.

Now, perhaps the better question might be this: given that Rafael Furcal might command $12 or $13 million per year, does it make sense for the Royals to think about retaining Mark Grudzielanek and let Mike Aviles play shortstop again in 2009?

Kansas City Royals Fans: Why All the Angst Over Mike Jacobs?

Clark Fosler — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 20:30:02 -0500

Yes, I believe there is a rather large amount of angst in Royals nation over the recent acquisition of Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins. There have been commenters to this site—good commenters who are genuinely upset about the trade. Columnists whom I respect and read often on other sites, be it local (Royals Review, Rany) or national (Keith Law), who have panned the deal.

To be honest, that Dayton Moore traded an oft-injured middle reliever for a player who at least has the potential to be an everyday player has caused so much consternation caught me by surprise. The concerns seem to fall into several categories:

1. Oh my, God! We traded away Leo Nunez!

To be fair, there has not been a lot of this, but I have read at least a handful of various discussion board posts that worry about the possibility of "Leo Nunez becoming great."

It is possible, given that Nunez has a lively, 95 mph fastball. It is also possible that Nunez, who has spent time on the disabled list in each of the last three seasons, might not throw 20 innings next year.

Let's be clear, if the criteria of a trade is that the Royals never trade away a player who gets better for someone else, then the Royals will never make a trade. Besides, opposing batters hit 100 points higher against Nunez after the break than they did before the All Star break.

2. Jacobs' power will not translate into home runs in Kaufmann Stadium.

I don't know, a pissed off, injury-riddled Jose Guillen hit 20 homers for the Royals last season, not far off his career average, so it is not like it is impossible to hit homers in Kansas City.

More importantly, did you realize that the left-handed hitting Jacobs played in a home park the last three years that was 345 feet down the right-field line? That's 15 feet further than Kaufmann.

In addition (and yes, I am aware that the fence falls away from 330 feet in a hurry), Dolphins Stadium was 385 feet to right-center (five feet less than Kaufmann) and essentially an identical 410 feet to dead center.

If nothing else, Jacobs will not step to the plate for the first time next April and think the fence is any farther away than usual.

3. Jacobs is in decline.

In terms of on-base percentage, yes. In terms of slugging, no. Combined into the old trusty OPS and Jacobs' 2008 mark of .813 is a career high...and 93 points higher than the combined first basemen for the Royals last season. Sure, that number is not all that great for first basemen, but the Royals did get him for a 150-pound relief pitcher.

Perhaps the most important thing to note is that after posting a batting-average-on-balls-in-play of .295 and .311 in his first two years with the Marlins, Jacobs' BABIP dropped to .260 in 2008. Assuming that number pushes back up to the league average of .300 next year, Jacobs could easily end up hitting .280 with a .325 on-base percentage.

4. Dayton Moore said the Royals would improve their OBP and Mike Jacobs is an OBP disaster.

Yes, he did, and yes, he is (but keep in mind what I just wrote above with regard to BABIP). If you read my series on on-base percentage two weeks ago, you will also know that Jacobs has never really shown an aptitude to be a big "on-base" guy and hence, as we learned, is not going to suddenly become Jim Thome. That said, if Jacobs can get back to a .320 on-base percentage and slug .510, the Royals are going to be an improved offensive team.

As for Moore, just because he wants (hell, NEEDS to) improve the club's on-base abilities does not mean that every move he makes has to address that situation, does it?

Oh, by the way, Royals' first basemen walked 38 times in 162 games last year, while Mike Jacobs walked 36 in 141 games...and hit 18 more home runs than the combined KC first sackers.

5. Mike Jacobs is a bad defensive first baseman.

Really?! A team that has finished above .500 once since 1994 is worried about defense at first base? Listen, Mike Jacobs may be a disaster at the plate next year and make us all start checking Leo Nunez's stats, but condemning this trade because Jacobs is a bad defender at the least important defensive position on the field is not all that logical. Besides, how much did playing a good defensive first baseman the past three years (two of Gload and one of Mientciwicz) help the team?

6. His power is a fluke.

Is not.

Okay, seriously, his 32 home runs is a dramatic improvement over 20 in 2006 and 17 in 2007, but Jacobs did miss a month with a bad wrist in 2007. Plus, almost every hitter I can think of that had wrist problems fought them all season and their numbers paid the price because of it. Note; that is not a scientific analysis, just my recollection of four or five guys (going back to Andres Galarragga) who had wrist injuries one season and, when finally healthy, jacked a bunch of homers the next.

7. Acquiring Jacobs means Dayton Moore is going to trade Billy Butler.

...or at least cut into his at-bats.

While it is no secret that some parts of the Royals' organization have become disillusioned with young Mr. Butler, I think the above may be a bit of conspiracy theory run wild. I mean, doesn't that premise imply that Moore must also prefer Ryan Shealy over Butler? I don't think any of us believe that is the case.

Assuming that Butler is on the move, then isn't this debate best saved for when we see who the Royals trade Butler for?

Frankly, I simply do not see this happening. At 22 years old, Butler simply cannot be that annoying. It would seem to me that Jacobs will play first, Butler will DH, and Ryan Shealy will get some at-bats spelling either or both...If he is on the roster at all in 2009.

In summary...

Unlike a lot of other writers, almost all of whom I respect, I actually like this trade. I don't think that Mike Jacobs will turn into Ryan Howard, nor do I think he, by himself, adds 10 wins to the team.

I fully admit that Mike Jacobs is probably as likely to go .220/.270/.430 as he is to go .285/.330/.550, but considering what the team gave up, isn't having a guy who at least might hit 30 homers worth the risk?

In the end, the Royals traded away Leo freaking Nunez, and the players most likely to be hurt by the move are named Gload, Shealy, and Kaaihue. So, why all the angst?

Marlins Act Swiftly, Trade Mike Jacobs to Royals

Clark Fosler — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 12:06:54 -0400

The Marlins didn't wait long to put their offseason plan in motion. Not even 24 hours after the Phillies won the World Series, Florida traded first baseman Mike Jacobs to the Kansas City Royals for relief pitcher Leo Nunez.

With his team's surplus of power and corner infielders and his salary expected to triple, and over a dozen more arbitration-eligible players to weed out in the coming months, Jacobs' dealing was imminent. In Kansas City, he'll re-join Miguel Olivo. In 2006, the pair combined to strike out 208 times.

I like the look of this Nunez kid. He's a very solid reliever who has an excellent track record. In the past two seasons, he had a 3.42 ERA, a 63:25 K:BB ratio and a WHIP near 1.20. He mixes a developing changeup with nasty high-90s heat. Oh, did I mention he's 24 years old? Although he won't take it over right away, if Matt Lindstrom struggles even the slightest bit, Nunez could find himself in the closer role before June is out.

With Jacobs out of the picture, Jorge Cantu will likely shift corners. A plus-three play differential at first taking over for a minus-27? No complaints here. Dallas McPherson (he of 42 home runs in the minors in 2008) will be the starting third baseman.

Bye, Jake. I'll miss your hair...and that's about it.

Kansas City Royals Do A Deal I Would Do

Clark Fosler — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:14:03 -0400

Like many of you, I was a little confused and not very excited about the recent Mike Jacobs talk, particularly when it seemed to be Carlos Rosa headed to Florida. However, with the talks now seeming to near fruition and the Royal headed to the Marlins appears to be reliever Leo Nunez, I am on the other side of the fence.

First off, I operate under these two general assumptions:

Always trade a relief pitcher for a starting pitcher (with a rare "elite closer" exception to this rule)
Always trade a pitcher for a regular player (again with a rare "top of the line" starter exception)

Based upon those two trading guidelines, exchanging Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs seems like a deal I would do.

Now, in Jacobs, you have a big time power guy with a low on-base percentage who will no doubt be hurt by playing in Kansas City. Mike is a pure, unadulterated hacker, posting less than 40 walks in each of the past two seasons.

His minor league on-base percentage was just .344, so they thought that he will become Adam Dunn in the next few years in unlikely. Still, he will knock some balls out of the park—he might have the kind of power that is unaffected by Kaufmann Stadium's spacious confines. If that is the case, Jacobs is better than Jose Guillen...or at least no worse.

The argument can be made that the Royals are crowded at first base already, so why add a low on-base lefty to the mix? Well, ARE they loaded? You have Ross Gload, a part-timer at best, who has collected an offensive number of at-bats at first base over the past two years. You have Ryan Shealy, who looked like the real deal...IN SEPTEMBER.

You have Kila Kaaihue, who had a monster minor-league season in 2008, which means he is either the second coming of Ryan Howard or the second coming of Brandon Berger.

In addition, the Royals have Billy Butler, who has yet to hit anywhere near as well as expected and may or may not be able to play the position defensively. The Royals have room for three of those guys, maybe even four if you count Gload as a backup outfielder.

In Nunez, you have a reliever who has had his moments but has never avoided injury AND been consistent for an entire year. Frankly, Leo was the Royals' fourth best reliever last year and, at times, was even further down the pecking order than that.

In my opinion, trading Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs is a low risk, low-cost insurance policy in case the September 2008 Ryan Shealy disappears and Kila Kaaihue hits .228 in Omaha next year. In the end, you have two questions to answer:

Mike Jacobs or Ross Gload?
Can you replace Leo Nunez in the bullpen?

If the answer is yes to both, then you make the deal. I think we all have an idea as to how Dayton Moore answered those, don't we?

An Honest-to-God Tribe Trade Rumor

Clark Fosler — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:20:10 -0400

No one will argue that opening day is the best baseball day of the year, but for me—and other Tribe fans who have played the "wait-'til-next-year" game all their lives—the start of the offseason trading season brings about almost as much anticipation.

That season got underway officially—and just a touch early today—with the Plain Dealer reporting talks between the Tribe and Royals involving 3B Mark Teahen.

According to the report by Paul Hoynes, the Royals need a CF. Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, and Trever Crowe were mentioned as possibilities.

With a glut of outfielders at the major and minor-league level, and Andy Marte as the only guy with a 3B officially next to his name on the Tribe's current roster, the gut reaction is to say this makes plenty of sense from the Tribe's point of view.

But let's look at a few things before we jump to any conclusions.

The Kansas City Royals Have Many Faults, Being Cheap Is Not One of Them

Clark Fosler — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 11:31:44 -0400

$55 million to sign Gil Meche in 2007. Another $36 million for Jose Guillen in 2008, and more money spent on signing their 2008 draft class than ANY other organization in baseball. Can we finally put to rest the "Kansas City never spends any money" whine?

Keep in mind, the Royals were on the table with Torii Hunter for $75 million before the Angels blew everyone away last offseason AND actually offered Andruw Jones (thank god he didn't take it!) more overall money than the Dodgers. You can certainly argue with how the Royals have spent or attempted to spend their money, but it is hard to make the argument that they aren't spending it.

Sure, the Royals will never battle the Red Sox and Yankees, dollar for dollar, in the open market, and they may struggle to even get into the top half of baseball in total overall salary, but the days of every move, however minor, being predicated on the monetary equation are gone. Kansas City may not be free spenders, but they certainly have made a move up to money managers as opposed to money mizers.

Even trades, however speculative or non-fact based they may be, seem to no longer be governed by the almighty dollar. The Royals might trade Zack Greinke, but it will be because they are getting major and multiple prospects in return.

They might be shopping Mark Teahen (if Dayton Moore is not, as he vehemently denied the recent rumors, then he should be), but it has little to do with Teahen being arbitration eligible and more to do with his uncertain performance.

All of the above does not mean that there will not be contract-driven trades in the future. Heck, even the Yankees and Sox make contract-driven trades. Let's play the example game: Assume for a moment that Billy Butler turns into the absolute masher we are all waiting for over the next couple of years. You know, a .900 OPS guy with 40 doubles and 25 homers.

Would the Royals be cheap to look at trading a one-dimensional star coming up on free agency for two A-level prospects, or would they be smart? Depending on what Billy weighs at age 26 and just what level he mashes at; a five-year, god-knows-how-much contract might be a logical, not cheap, thing to avoid.

Now, it is easier to spend money when you are seeing improvement and, more importantly, starting to win. What happens if the Royals post a 78-84 record in 2009? Will the Glass family have the stomach to stick in for more millions and more years? That is the, pardon the pun, million-dollar question, isn't it?

Kansas City Royals' Rumor Round-Up

Clark Fosler — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 19:17:30 -0400

The Hot Stove is starting to gather some warmth, as a couple of Royal trade rumors are kicking this winter off in style. And the World Series isn't even over yet!

The first rumor had the Royals involved in a deal for Florida's Mike Jacobs, which allegedly fell apart when the Marlins weren't happy with the medical results from the minor-league pitcher they were going to receive.

On one hand, it's easy to see why the Royals would be interested in Jacobs. He was part of that powerful Marlin infield—each regular hit more than 29 bombs—and Jacobs finished with a career-high 32.

There are a few things to like about Jacobs. For starters, he's young and cheap. He turns 28 next week and is arbitration eligible after making just a shade under $400,000 last year. Yes, that means he'll get a raise, but it should be a modest one. It also means he would be under the Royals control for at least the next three seasons.

The other thing to like (or love, if you're the Royals and need someone with power) is the fact the guy can hit some home runs. In his last full season in the minors in 2005, he hit 25 homers and slugged .589 for Double-A Binghamton in the Mets' organization.

Even after pretty much skipping Triple-A, the power has been been there for Jacobs. Here's his slugging percentage since he moved to Florida:

2006: .473
2007: .458
2008: .514

It should be noted that, in 2007, he played roughly 13 games with a broken thumb before he went on the DL in mid-May. Somehow, he still managed to slug .500 during that time, but it took a while to shake the rust off once he returned to the team for good at the end of June. Over the second half of '07, he hit 12 home runs and slugged .478.

I probably don't need to tell you this, but here are the slugging percentages for all Royal first basemen since that time:

2006: .423
2007: .415
2008: .396

Jacobs' power is legit, and it would be a significant upgrade over what the Royals have rolled out there over the last three years.

But...And there's always a but...His OBP kind of sucks. Well, not kind of. It really, really sucks. Sigh.

2006: .325
2007: .317
2008: .299

And for comparison sake, here's how Royal first basemen have done in OBP:

2006: .351
2007: .326
2008: .324

You just can't have everything, can you?

It presents a conundrum. The Royals have a problem getting on base. It cost their hitting coach his job and some players will bee on the move as well. Those are the facts.

Another fact is the Royals have no power in their lineup. Zero. Zilch. When Jose Guillen is your "big bopper" and he's hitting 20 home runs, that's a problem.

My gut reaction to this trade was one of relief when I heard it fell through. But that was mainly based on Jacobs' OBP. Looking a little closer at the numbers, he has some power that can truly help this team.

Then there's his defense, which is below average at first and the fact his splits are rather extreme.

Vs RHP: .257/.315/.542
Vs LHP: .218/.248/.429

It's an issue in that it makes him a less-than-complete player.

In my mind, he's probably not the ideal solution, but he's still a good one, with some value. If he's truly the best option, I hope the Royals and Marlins can get together and revisit this deal.

Then there was the rumbling Bob Dutton reported this weekend that the Royals are talking to the Indians about sending Mark Teahen to Cleveland. The names rumored to be on the short list include Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, and minor leaguer Trevor Crowe. It sounds like a straight up, one-for-one deal.

That means the question is: Which do you like?

Just looking at the two guys who have major-league service time, Francisco has hit for more power and has shown a greater ability to get on base. Last year was really the first full year where both players could be considered regulars, although Gutierrez came off the bench a little more. Francisco had 499 plate appearances and Gutierrez 440.

Francisco: .266/.332/.438
Gutierrez: .248/.307/.383

Gutierrez has more power than he showed last season, but for some reason wasn't hitting the ball out of the park. His FB rate was steady from '07 to '08, but his HR/FB rate fell from 16 percent in '07 to six percent last season. In the minors, he slugged .462 for his career but only hit more than 12 home runs in a full season one time—and that was back in 2003 in High-A. He's been more of the gap-to-gap type of hitter.

For his minor-league career, Francisco has slugged .459, nearly identical to Gutierrez. But unlike Gutierrez, Francisco is an extreme fly-ball hitter, putting the ball in the air almost 48 percent of the time. And with a HR/FB rate of nine percent, it's easy to see how he out-homered Gutierrez by a 15-to-eight mark.

Another factor here is age and service time. Francisco has just two years of service time compared to Gutierrez's three, but Francisco is just one year older.

That brings us to Crowe. He opened last season in Double-A and earned a promotion after he hit .323/.404/.485. In 35 games in Triple-A, he hit .274/.350/.486. Those are some tasty OBP numbers, but he's turning 25 next month, which makes him a shade on the elderly side to be getting his first taste of Triple-A. But he's a switch hitter with a little bit of speed, so you can see why GMDM may have an interest.

Hmmm.

The Indians have a log jam in the outfield thanks to the Sabathia deal that got them Matt LaPorta, and they have a need at third base. I shed no tears hearing the Teahen rumors. I'm more an more convinced that his great run in '06 was a fluke, and he is destined for a career as a versatile utility man.

Personally, of the three names mentioned, I would go with Francisco. A better walk rate and more home-run power tip the scales in his favor. How about you?

	wRC	2B	HR	BB	SO
KC	86	32	31	30	168
CHI	73	28	17	36	84
CLE	74	33	16	75	144
DET	50	29	9	53	117
MIN	126	35	23	81	79

	wRC	2B	HR	BB	SO
KC	86	32	31	30	168
CHI	73	28	17	36	84
CLE	74	33	16	75	144
DET	50	29	9	53	117
MIN	126	35	23	81	79

	wRC	2B	HR	BB	SO
KC	86	32	31	30	168
CHI	73	28	17	36	84
CLE	74	33	16	75	144
DET	50	29	9	53	117
MIN	126	35	23	81	79