Bleacher Report - Articles by ACC SEC Blog

Georgia-Ga Tech Preview: Yellow Jackets Adjustments Are the Difference

ACC SEC Blog — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:05:53 -0500

This may be the most heated rivalry in the South—so much so that the schools can't even agree on the series record.

Georgia Tech says it is 59-39-5, while Georgia claims a 59-37-5 series lead, not counting Tech's victories in 1943 and 1944.

You can throw the series record out this year, as we find a role reversal with Georgia Tech's eyes set on a BCS bid while Georgia is fighting for a 7-5 season.

UGA head coach Mark Richt started out 7-0 against Tech after arriving in 2001, largely because of the Bulldogs' three straight losses to the Yellow Jackets.

Before last season though, Georgia Tech hired Paul Johnson to restore this game to rivalry status, and he did in year one, beating UGA in Athens. With Johnson's arrival, Georgia Tech is 19-5 in two seasons and favored over their in-state nemesis by a touchdown.

Things are not as rosy in Athens, where Richt and his staff have come under fire with two straight disappointing seasons.

Friendships are lost, families are divided, and coaches fired over Clean, Old Fashioned Hate.

Keys for Georgia Tech

1. Don't Beat Yourself

Georgia Tech's offense is on a roll and has largely avoided coughing the ball up this season. But the option is a high risk, high reward offense that can be slowed by turnovers. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt needs to continue his good decision-making this season and not give UGA any easy scoring chances.

The Bulldogs have only recovered one fumble this season, so they will have to reverse recent fortune. But Nesbitt is third in fumbles among active players.

I think defensive coordinator Willie Martinez has to force the ball out to the pitch, where turnovers are more likely.

2. Pass Defense

Despite the success on offense, Ga Tech's defense has left something to be desired with their pass defense ranking 78th nationally.

Star WR A.J. Green's status is doubtful, so guys like Mike Moore, Rantavious Wooten, and Orson Charles will need to step up and take advantage of a porous Jackets defense.

The Yellow Jackets' pass defense will be greatly aided if they can get pressure from the front four and especially from guys other than star DE Derrick Morgan. Georgia's offensive line has played pretty well in pass protection, allowing just one sack per game.

Keys for Georgia

1. Control the Clock

Georgia Tech leads the nation in time of possession, and that time on the field, combined with a punishing running game, wears opposing defenses out. Georgia has to establish a running game to hold on to the ball and keep it away from the explosive Yellow Jacket offense.

GT's key to holding on to the ball is their conversion rate on third down, ranking third nationally. UGA ranks 27th nationally in opponent third down conversions.

2. Pass Coverage

I know you are scratching your head, Georgia fans, but hear me out. Everyone knows Ga. Tech is going to run the ball, and UGA is going to try to load the box to stop it.

But when Nesbitt can consistently connect with his receivers downfield, especially Demaryius Thomas, this offense is nearly unstoppable.

For GT, they have to get the ball to the edge enough to keep those corners and safeties peeking into the backfield. Those DBs peeking is a reason why Nesbitt is second in the country in passes completed over 50 yards.

Prediction

Last year, Georgia Tech won the game by outscoring Georgia 33-14 in the second half and has never looked back.

I think this game goes back and forth in the first half, but in the second half Georgia Tech's offense makes the necessary adjustments, leaving Mark Richt, Willie Martinez, and the Georgia Bulldogs befuddled again.

Georgia Tech Wins
Georgia Tech Covers -7.5

You can check out this preview and other rivalry week previews at The ACC & SEC Blog .

Clemson-South Carolina Preview: Gamecocks Hope To Reverse Rivalry Trend

ACC SEC Blog — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 12:44:59 -0500

The Gamecocks and Tigers will tee it up for the 107th time on Saturday in the Battle For The Palmetto State.

There is no love lost between these two as was evidenced when I asked bloggers from both teams what this rivalry means.

Clemson would like their sixth win in a row this season and a seventh win in the last eight meetings between the two. But they also have an ACC Championship Game to look forward to next week.

South Carolina, on the other hand, is hoping to break a three-game losing streak this season and beat a potential conference champion and their archrival.

Keys for Clemson

1. Spiller Time

C.J. Spiller is the most dynamic player in college football, having scored running the ball, receiving the ball, returning the ball, and throwing the ball this season.

The Tigers have done a very good job at making sure he gets plenty of touches this season. That needs to continue on Saturday.

South Carolina must know where the Heisman candidate is at all times, especially coming out of the backfield on receptions.

The Gamecocks may just decide to kick the ball out of bounds too, instead of allowing a fourth return for touchdown by Spiller this season.

2. Pressure Garcia

Clemson's defense is at its best when it can rush the passer and allow ball-hawking safety DeAndre McDaniel to roam the secondary. McDaniel is second in the nation with eight interceptions.

If the interceptions weren't enough, the Tigers lead the ACC and rank 11th nationally with 33 sacks.

South Carolina's Stephen Garcia has really improved his pocket awareness this season, but he needs to be extra sharp on Saturday.

Getting the ball out of his hands quickly will be necessary, and preferably the ball is going to go to talented freshman Alshon Jeffery a lot.

Keys for South Carolina

1. Establish a Running Game

The reason here is two-fold: to keep the ball away from a Tiger team averaging 39 points per game over their past three with ball control, and to keep the "Bamberg Bookends" from pinning their ears back to rush Garcia.

The Gamecocks have not had much success running the ball this year, but Brian Maddox emerged in the Florida game as a potential threat with 82 rush yards.

For Clemson, if they stuff the run early, I can see where Steve Spurrier would go almost exclusively with the pass.

2. Eric Norwood

The senior from Acworth, Ga. is to South Carolina's defense what Spiller is to Clemson's offense. Norwood has come up big in the Gamecocks' wins this season and will need to again on Saturday.

The Tigers had trouble blocking another great pass rusher in Georgia Tech's Derrick Morgan this season.

Norwood would be greatly helped by a healthy Cliff Matthews on the other side to create their own pass rush tandem. Matthews' status was questionable early in the week.

Just like Spiller, QB Kyle Parker and the Clemson backs will need to know where Mr. Norwood is at all times since he lines out up at end and linebacker throughout the game.

Prediction

If I mention the words "Chicken Curse" to my South Carolina blogger brethren, they get upset. But it looks like it could be rearing its ugly head again this season.

The Gamecocks always have a tough time in November (probably due to their schedule of Tennessee, Florida, and Clemson rather than any "curse") and it looks like it is continuing this season.

Despite a hostile road crowd, I think Clemson's offensive talent and ball-hawking pass defense is too much for South Carolina.

Clemson Wins
Clemson Covers -3

You can check out this preview and many rivalry week previews at The ACC & SEC Blog

Tennessee-Kentucky Preview: Rich Brooks is Kentucky's Slump Buster

ACC SEC Blog — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 08:51:05 -0500

Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday 7:00PM ET TV: ESPNU

Line: Tennessee -3

The nations longest winning streak is put on the line when the Tennessee Volunteers try to take down the Kentucky Wildcats for a 25th straight time. The Vols have also won 26 straight season finales coming into this game.

But if Kentucky wins, it will not be the first streak they have broken this season. Just last week the Wildcats won at Georgia for the first time since 1977 and earlier this season won for the first time in 43 years at Auburn.

Tennessee bounced back nicely from the debacle in Oxford with a win over Vanderbilt last week. Lane Kiffin's offense has improved as the season has gone on with QB Jonathan Crompton leading the way. But the defense has not been as dominant as it was early on.

Kentucky is not really good or bad in any particular category, but they take care of the ball and don't beat themselves with penalties.

This one is a very close on to call. Tennessee has not played very well on the road this season, but you do have to consider their opponents were Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss.

I am going to go with the hot hand and Kentucky in this one though. I think Randall Cobb makes enough Dexter McCluster type plays to keep the Wildcats around and they capitalize on a late Vol mistake.

All streaks must come to an end.

Kentucky Wins
Kentucky Covers +3

You can check out this and other articles about the SEC at The ACC & SEC Blog .

ACC Predictions for Nov 28: Miami, UNC, VT, BC, Wake All Win

ACC SEC Blog — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:08:49 -0500

Before I get to the big games of the weekend where the ACC will take on the SEC, lets take a look at some of the undercard games in the conference.

Miami Hurricanes at South Florida Bulls
Saturday 3:30PM ET TV: ABC/ESPN

Line: Miami -1

An interesting note about this game is that it is off most boards; I had to dig to find a line on it.

Despite the close proximity, these teams will be meeting for just the second time ever on Saturday. Miami defeated USF in the only other meeting in 2005.

The Bulls have played much better at home this season, but those numbers are skewed with two contests coming against 1-AA competition early on.

Miami is playing better on both sides of the ball in their last three games after a brief mid season slump.

I like an improving Hurricanes run defense to slow down BJ Daniels and South Florida enough to gut out a win.

Miami Wins
Miami Covers -1

Virginia Tech Hokies at Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday 3:30PM ET TV: ABC/ESPN

Line: Va Tech -16

The swan song for Al Groh begins at 3:30 in Charlottesville when his Cavalier team takes on arch rival Virginia Tech. It is hard to imagine a scenario where the ninth year coach keeps his job unless he beats the Hokies for just the second time.

Now that I have basically told you I think Va Tech will win lets see if they will cover a pretty big spread of 16 points. Last season, UVA came into Blacksburg seven point underdogs and nearly pulled off the upset.

The problem this year is that UVA's offense and defense has gotten seemingly worse down the stretch.

Meanwhile, the Hokies have righted the ship on defense and have found a punishing offensive weapon in leading ACC rusher Ryan Williams.

I think the only way Virginia has a chance to keep this one close is to come out with something VT hasn't seen. Oh yeah, they did that last year with Vic Hall at QB.

Never mind, Virginia Tech rolls.

Virginia Tech Wins
Virginia Tech Covers -16

North Carolina Tar Heels at NC State Wolfpack
Saturday Noon ET TV: ESPN2

Line: UNC -5.5

The Tar Heels hope to break a two year losing streak against NC State, but continue their own streak of four straight wins. UNC has made an appearance back in some top 25 pools by pushing their record to 8-3.

Things could not be more opposite down the road in Raleigh where the Wolfpack are in a deep slide having lost six of their last seven.

The team that has won the rushing battle has won 16 of the last 17. This year the two are very close in rushing yards per game, but UNC has gotten better as the season has gone on while State has gotten worse.

Also, UNC's rush defense ranks at the top of the ACC allowing just 94 ypg on the ground.

I like North Carolina to exact revenge for the 31 point beat down they suffered last year by covering this 5.5 point spread.

North Carolina Wins
North Carolina Covers -5.5

Boston College Eagles at Maryland Terrapins
Saturday 3:30PM TV: ESPNU

Line: BC -6.5

Boston College hopes to stop their losing streak at one just like they have all year bouncing back after a loss. Maryland has not won since beating Atlantic Division champ Clemson back on October 3rd.

BC QB Dave Shinskie had a rough game last week, but just like his team he has bounced back the following week.

The Eagles don't have flashy statistics, but are winning by capitalizing on their opportunities. BC ranks second in the league in red zone offensive and defensive efficiency.

But I did see some improvement last week in Maryland who should have beaten FSU. And Boston College has not been the same team away from Chesnut Hill this season needing a late touchdown to over come Virginia for their only road win of the season.

I think BC pulls this one out, but closer than Vegas thinks.

Boston College Wins
Maryland Covers +6.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils
Saturday Noon ET TV: Raycom

Line: WF -4.5

Wake looks for their 10th straight win in this series when they travel to Durham to face the Blue Devils. After a fast start by Duke standards, David Cutcliffe's club has dropped their past three and is out of bowl contention.

The Deacons have had some close calls against them this season losing five games by three points or less.

I think this game goes right down to the wire with two senior QBs wrapping up their careers in what amounts to a bowl game for both teams.

I like Wake to come out on top and finally win a close one.

Wake Forest Wins
Duke Covers +4.5

This article and many others is at The ACC & SEC Blog

Auburn-Alabama Preview: Tide Defense Is Too Much for Tigers

ACC SEC Blog — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:16:21 -0500

Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers
Friday 2:30 PM ET TV: CBS

Line: Alabama -10

The Iron Bowl will be played for the 74th time, but this time on the Friday afternoon after Thanksgiving. Alabama leads the series 39-33-1 and won last year's contest 36-0, the largest margin of victory in 46 years.

Not much is different for Alabama this season as they are undefeated again with a rematch against Florida looming next week. But don't expect the Tide to overlook an improved Auburn team from a year ago.

Auburn is much better on offense this year largely due to the hiring of Gus Malzahn as the Offensive Coordinator.

But this game is going to swing with Alabama's defense which ranks first in total defense and rush defense in the SEC. Alabama's defense will be able to slow down the third ranked Auburn rushing attack and force Tiger QB Chris Todd to beat them. Oh yeah, Alabama is pretty good in pass defense as well.

Alabama runs away with this one in the second half, but don't expect a beating like last year.

Alabama Wins
Alabama Covers -10

This article and many others is at The ACC & SEC Blog

ACC Thoughts After Week 12: Pack Your Bags, Clemson Fans!

ACC SEC Blog — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 21:50:57 -0500

Another good week of football is wrapped up, but it is saddened by the realization that just two weeks remain in the regular season.

It was also a good week picking games again going 8-1 Straight Up and 6-3 Against The Spread.

My thoughts on the week that was in the ACC and around the nation.

Dabo Swinney went against the coaching grain by telling his team they were Atlantic Division champions before his team took the field. I don't have a problem with that because they would have heard when the score was announced during the game.

But admit it Clemson fans, you had to be worried at half time this team might blow this game and you wouldn't have been shocked.

CJ Spiller got a nice senior send off with the crowd chanting his name before a punt return. Spiller said one of referees came over and told him he got chills when that happened.

But what is a ref doing basically telling a player he admires him during the game? I am not saying this ref was going to give favorable calls to Clemson but his comments brings the conversation up.

Clemson and Georgia Tech are going to play in the ACC Championship Game, but would anyone want to play North Carolina right now?

The Heels defense was dominating forcing five interceptions and returning two plays for defensive touchdowns against Boston College.

Dave Shinskie's up and down season continued with four interceptions. Still, I think Frank Spaziani did a great job getting this team to the brink of a third straight ACC Championship Game.

The fact that Florida State needed a last second touchdown set up by a 48 yard punt return in longtime defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews final home game to beat a two win Maryland team shows just how far FSU has fallen.

But the Seminoles are bowl eligible for a 28th straight year, the longest streak in FBS.

Duke saw their bowl chances go down the drain by allowing Miami to score 24 straight points and win going away 34-16.

Tom O'Brien is not on the hot seat in Raleigh, but his seat is warm after another blowout loss. And up next is a hot, revenge minded Tar Heel team whom State bludgeoned last year in Chapel Hill.

And now some national thoughts...

Texas' Colt McCoy set the NCAA record for all time wins at 43 and did it with an extremely accurate arm within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Texas has exploded after the Oklahoma win, but who is hotter right now—a Colt McCoy led Texas offense or Colt McCoy's girlfriend ?

Somewhere Sammy Baugh is smiling with TCU's best start in 71 years. And somewhere an AD is looking up Gary Patterson's phone number.

Michigan's Tate Forcier threw four interceptions and added a fumble in the Wolverines sixth straight loss to Ohio State.

After the game Forcier texted the AP—"I lost that game". What is a college QB doing texting the AP, much less a true freshman? Rich Rod said the starting job is open in the off season. Maybe this will bring Forcier back to Earth.

I was rooting for Arizona against Oregon. I wanted to see the Wildcats in their first Rose Bowl ever. I like teams who have a chance to do something they have never done before.

But I didn't like the Arizona students crowding on the sideline as regulation wound down. You have been waiting for 100 years and you can't wait five more minutes until your team actually wins?

Stanford lost following their win over USC making the Cardinal the third team this season to lose the week following a win over the Trojans. What's your deal Stanford?

SEC Thoughts: Georgia Is Officially the Most-Disappointing Team

ACC SEC Blog — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 21:46:56 -0500

Another good week of college football is wrapped up and I'm saddened by the realization that just two weeks remain in the regular season.

It was also a good week picking games again. I went 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread.

Here are my thoughts on the week that was in the SEC and around the nation.

I really wanted to pick Kentucky for the win straight up (my numbers told me UK by two), but the Randall Cobb injury situation scared me off.

Turnovers killed Georgia again. UGA out gained Kentucky by 227 yards and threw for more yards (291) than the Wildcats had total.

You have to feel for a guy like Joe Cox who waited four years for his turn and then played so poorly on senior night. He finished with 12 for 30 passing and two interceptions.

Georgia has a highly touted freshman it is redshirting this season at QB. I would think Mark Richt would have learned his lesson with Knowshon Moreno and played the true freshman Aaron Murray if he was going to have a big impact on the season.

But it doesn't end with the QB and turnovers. Georgia's defense gave up more than 30 points to a team who had not scored that many on an SEC team all season.

You have to tip your cap to Rich Brooks. The man who proclaimed he was "still here" at the SEC Media Days a few years back has the Wildcats in line for a fourth straight bowl. The only coach other than Brooks to win three straight bowls at UK was Paul "Bear" Bryant.

Not bad company.

Brooks broke another Kentucky streak on Saturday winning in Athens for the first time since 1977.

Where does Georgia go from here? Probably to Shreveport or Memphis as it looks likely the Bulldogs will finish 6-6 barring an upset of Georgia Tech in Atlanta next Saturday.

Georgia has officially replaced Ole Miss as the owner of the most disappointing season in the SEC. This team has talent, so Richt has to answer some serious questions about his coaching staff after this season.

I love it when I nail close spreads . LSU fans hate it when their coach cannot manage the game clock inside of the 30 seconds.

You can read all you want about the game and its ending and draw your own conclusions. But I think Les Miles blew it when he waited 17 seconds to call time out after third down. But I also think a home clock operator would give LSU two seconds instead of one after Tolliver's catch (he was clearly on the ground at two).

Should Les Miles be on the hot seat? No, but maybe his offensive line coach should be after LSU put up just 40 yards rushing. You are telling me that mammoth line can't get two yards per attempt?

Florida and Alabama both won big. I wonder who got the jump on the SEC Championship Game preparation?

And now some national thoughts...

Texas' Colt McCoy set the NCAA record for all time wins at 43 and did it with an extremely accurate arm within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Texas has exploded after the Oklahoma win, but who is hotter right now: A Colt McCoy-led Texas offense or Colt McCoy's girlfriend ?

Somewhere Sammy Baugh is smiling with TCU's best start in 71 years. And somewhere an AD is looking up Gary Patterson's phone number.

Michigan's Tate Forcier threw four interceptions and added a fumble in the Wolverines sixth straight loss to Ohio State.

After the game Forcier texted to the AP "I lost that game". What is a college QB doing texting the AP, much less a true freshman? Rich Rod said the starting job is open in the offseason. Maybe this will bring Forcier back to Earth.

I was rooting for Arizona against Oregon. I wanted to see the Wildcats in their first Rose Bowl ever. I like teams who have a chance to do something they have never done before.

But I didn't like the Arizona students crowding on the sideline as regulation wound down. You have been waiting for 100 years and you can't wait five more minutes until your team actually wins?

Stanford lost following their win over USC making the Cardinal the third team this season to lose the week following a win over the Trojans.

What's your deal Stanford?

LSU-Ole Miss Preview: Don't Tell Them There Is Nothing To Play For

ACC SEC Blog — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:57:42 -0500

What some thought might be a game for the SEC West title has most likely turned into a game for the Capitol One Bowl.

LSU has two losses, albeit to the two top teams in the country, and is out of BCS bowl contention despite their lofty ranking. Ole Miss came crashing back to Earth in Columbia on a Thursday night in late September.

But there is still a lot of pride in this “rivalry” game (probably second biggest for both teams) and it is the CBS game of the week, so it is my SEC game of the week.

Last week was a good week going 11-1 straight up and 7-4-1 against the spread, including both games right involving these two teams.

Here are the areas where I think this game will swing.

Quarterback Play

It is really about which QB hurts their team less. I never thought I would say that about Jevan Snead at the beginning of the season, but he had a sub-par year by everyone’s standards not named Mr. and Mrs. Snead.

And for LSU, Jordan Jefferson looks like he will start after injuring an ankle two weeks ago and sitting out last week. Jefferson has been kind of a disappointment this year too after his play in the Chick Fil A Bowl. .

But if Jarrett Lee has to spell him, then this message really applies to the Tigers.

The Dexter McClusters

No I did not spell that wrong. I will get to that in a minute.

LSU’s defense has to know where Dexter McCluster is at all times. And Ole Miss has to have him involved a lot at all times. He is the best offensive weapon the Rebels have by far.

On LSU’s side their potential Dexter McCluster, Russell Shepard, has to get involved too. Its November, he isn’t a freshman anymore. Les Miles need to take the reins of this highly touted recruit from a year ago.

Emotion

Both of these teams have had disappointing years thus far, but are in relatively similar situations as last year when Ole Miss came into Baton Rouge and dominated the Tigers on their Senior Day.

Neither team is going to Atlanta nor are they going to a BCS bowl. The team that shows the most pride, especially on the line of scrimmage has a great chance to win this game..

Prediction

If Jefferson gets hurt again or is too gimpy to be effective it could be a long day for LSU. People have been down on Ole Miss this season, but this is the game last year where they caught the SEC’s attention and started on their march to 9 wins.

I think on a neutral field LSU may be the better team, but with the game in Oxford I give Ole Miss a slight, slight advantage. .

Ole Miss Wins
LSU Covers +4.5

ACC Conference Predictions for Nov. 21: No Pressure, Clemson

ACC SEC Blog — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:53:03 -0500

Five conference games to pick this week with the lead storyline being heavily favored Clemson hoping to finally wrap up an ACC Championship Game berth with a win over Virginia.

Elsewhere, Boston College is clinging to their title hopes and hoping for a UVA upset, but may have their hands full with a surging North Carolina team.

And could this be the last home game for Bobby Bowden at FSU?

The long time Seminole coach came out this week and said he has made up his mind about his future, but hasn't told anyone yet.

Last week was a good week for me, as I went 11-1 straight up and 7-4-1 against the spread. How do you think I will fare this week?

Virginia Cavaliers at Clemson Tigers

Saturday 3:30 PM TV: ABC/ESPN

Line: Clemson -21

Two teams headed in opposite directions will collide in Death Valley when Virginia tries to spoil Clemson’s Atlantic Division title party.

With a win, the Tigers will wrap up a berth in the ACC title game. I think Al Groh’s job security at UVA has already been decided, even if the Cavs can pull off an upset.

Clemson has really picked up steam after their bye week, especially on offense.

The Tigers are led by their Heisman candidate CJ Spiller, who is doing it all: running it, catching it, returning it, and last week even throwing for a touchdown.

I don’t see how Clemson can lose this game and since Tommy Bowden is no longer coaching, I don’t think they will.

Clemson Wins
Clemson Covers -21

Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday 12PM TV: Raycom

Line: FSU -19

People who don’t like good defense should like watching this game as these two teams rank at the bottom of the ACC in total defense.

But FSU does at least rank third in total offense while Maryland ranks 10th.

The Terps are having a very rough year all around and are plagued by turnovers and poor play in the red zone.

FSU surprised me last week with their execution on the ground in the upset win over Wake Forest.

But I think the Terps are able to move the ball in this game and keep them close enough to cover a big spread.

FSU Wins
Maryland Covers +19

North Carolina Tar Heels at Boston College Eagles

Saturday 12PM TV: ESPN2

Line: BC -3.5

UNC is the hot team coming into this game, but it is BC that still has title hopes as long as it finishes strong. Kind of the opposite of Maryland-FSU, as we have two of the top defenses in the conference going at it.

The Eagles have been a much better team at home than on the road this season, outscoring opponents by 20 points per game in Chesnut Hill.

First-year head coach Frank Spaziani deserves a lot of credit for having this team right back in the thick of things after two years of QB and coaching turmoil.

I was on the In The Bleachers podcast this week and picked the Heels, but after looking at the numbers some more, specifically how well BC has played at home, I gotta change my pick and go with BC to cover here.

Boston College Wins
Boston College Covers -3.5

Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes

Saturday 12PM TV: ESPNU

Line: Miami -20

If you like quarterbacks slinging the ball all over the field then make sure you tune into Duke against Miami on Saturday.

The Blue Devils rank first in the ACC in passing yards per game and Miami ranks fourth.

The Hurricanes' recent slide can be attributed to their turnover problems because of teams getting pressure on QB Jacory Harris.

I like Duke to keep this one close for a while, but Miami takes it in the second half.

Miami Wins
Duke Covers +20

NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Tech Hokies

Saturday 3:30PM TV: ESPNU

Line: VT -21

It is November and the Hokies are in an unfamiliar place, under the ACC radar.

With an ACC title essentially out of reach, Virginia Tech is focusing on getting the best possible bowl bid and that continues with a win over the howling Wolfpack of NC State.

Now the question is whether or not Va Tech can cover the spread. I think based on the way the Hokies have played at home and the way NC State has played on the road, VT will by a hair.

Virginia Tech Wins
Virginia Tech Covers -21

Georgia's Upset Alert and Other SEC Predictions for Nov. 21

ACC SEC Blog — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:48:20 -0500

Not the most exciting slate of SEC games this week, but the next seven days will be huge; so a "week off" might be a good thing.

Florida and Alabama have warmup games before their big rivalry rounds next week.

Speaking of rivalries, Tennessee will try to earn bowl eligibility by beating Vanderbilt this Saturday.

Georgia hopes to use the confidence gained from their win over Auburn to beat Kentucky and improve its bowl chances. Same goes for Arkansas who is hosting Mississippi State in Little Rock.

Last week was a good week for us, as we went 11-1 straight up and 7-4-1 against the spread.

Here's a rundown of this week's pivotal games.

Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs

Saturday 7:45PM ET TV: ESPN

Line: UGA -8

Two 6-4 teams who have had drastically different seasons meet in Athens in ESPN’s primetime game Saturday night.

The disappointing Bulldogs are coming off a big win over Auburn in a game that could have sent their season even further south.

Georgia’s big problem defensively has been the number of points allowed. The Bulldogs’ poor turnover margin was at the bottom of FBS before last week.

UK may or may not have Randall Cobb available. Last year, Cobb ran the option at QB and nearly led the Wildcats to a win in Lexington.

If he is available I think UK has a shot at the upset here.

Georgia Wins
Kentucky Covers +8

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday 12:20PM ET TV: SEC Network

Line: ARK -11

We have a clash of styles between MSU and Arkansas on Saturday. The Bulldogs want to run the ball and the Razorbacks would like to sling it all over the yard.

The Bulldog defense is starting to show some wear and tear giving up 230 rush yards per game over their last three contests.

The Bulldogs have never won in Little Rock or Fayetteville and I don’t think that trend will end this year.

The Razorbacks will blow this one open in the second half behind Ryan Mallet’s arm.

Arkansas Wins
Arkansas Covers -11

Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers

Saturday 7PM ET TV: ESPNU

Line: TENN -17

Lane Kiffin is glad last week is over. The Vols annually dominate the month of November but it does not look like that will be the case this season.

Vanderbilt has had some tough luck in 2009; or maybe just not the same luck they had in 2008.

With a win, Tennessee will become bowl eligible in their first year under Kiffin. Despite even more distractions this week, I think the Vols bounce back nicely.

The Vols like to run the ball and Vandy has not been very good at stopping the run this year; this could be a recipe for a blowout.

Tennessee Wins
Tennessee Covers -17

ACC Roundup After Week 9: One Team In, One To Go for ACC Title Game

ACC SEC Blog — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:34:28 -0500

Georgia Tech wins the Coastal Division by romping over Duke 49-10. The Blue Devils jumped out to an early 10-0 lead scoring on their first drive and taking advantage of a bad punt snap from the Yellow Jackets.

I am sure Ga. Tech fans did not hit the panic button, but some SI jinx mindset might have slipped in after Paul Johnson’s offense was profiled in this past week's issue.

This offense is not unstoppable, but you better have a really good defensive line and be able to tackle in space. Pressure from the line will render any offense incapable just like it would this one.

Miami was able to get that back in September and also caught the Jackets playing their third game in 13 days handing them their only loss of the season.

As to whom GT will play in the Championship Game is yet to be determined. Both Clemson and Boston College won on Saturday, but if the Tigers defeat Virginia at home next week they will be heading to Tampa.

Clemson jumped out early on NC State, but saw the Wolfpack creep back in before the Tigers blew the game open again in the fourth.

This is a different Clemson team this year and I fully expect them to take care of the business next week against Virginia.

After some early season troubles, Dabo is proving Clemson made good hire for at least the short term and maybe the long term too.

Speaking of BC, they needed a late drive to beat Virginia on the road and keep their title hopes alive. Behind closed doors though, I highly doubt the ACC office wants to see the Eagles in this game for a third straight year.

Do not put me in the camp of surprised spectators that North Carolina upset Miami . Something clicked in this UNC team a few weeks ago at Blacksburg and they have not looked back since.

QB TJ Yates is playing much better eliminating much of the poor decision-making that plagued him early on. And this defense is shaping into one of the nation’s best.

They put pressure on Miami’s Jacory Harris just like I thought they had to and forced four interceptions returning two for touchdowns.

Miami’s offensive line, a unit that played so well early in the season, is showing some wear. But I think more experience here and on the defensive side will lend the ‘Canes very well next year.

Is the end near for Ralph Friedgen at Maryland? The Fridge has already named his replacement and the big guy’s health is an ongoing concern. The 2-8 Terps look over matched on offense, which is very unusual for a Friedgen coached team.

And as right as I was about UNC, I was equally as wrong about E.J. Manual and the Seminoles this weekend. Manuel completed 15 of 20 passed for 200 yards as FSU broke a three game losing streak to Wake Forest.

The Seminoles are not going to let the NCAA’s longest bowl streak die easily.

And now some National thoughts…
Mack Brown knows exactly when to turn the volume up for his Texas Longhorns. They limped into the Oklahoma game, but won, and have blown their opponents out since.

TCU showed again why they deserve to be in the discussion for the BCS Championship if one of the top three falter. The Horned Frogs have blown through their MWC competition this year and have also beaten two BCS conference teams on the road.

I have not seen a USC team get dominated like that since the 90s. Stanford literally pushed the Trojans around up front, especially when the Cardinal had the ball.

I don’t know if recruiting has fallen off on both lines of scrimmage, but that should be priority No. 1 for Pete Carroll in the offseason.

Second priority has to be sticking it to Jim Harbaugh and Stanford next year for going for two to give them 50 on the scoreboard when the game was clearly out of reach.

Ohio State clinches the Big 10 title. Too bad they aren’t even the best team in their own state.

And Michigan looks like they are not going to go bowling for the second straight season after their sixth Big 10 loss in a row.

I still think Rich Rodriguez will get it together next season and compete for the Big 10 title, but that is probably the minimum requirement to keep him around at this point.

Picks:
Last Week: 11 – 1 Straight Up, 7-4-1 Against The Spread

My ACC & SEC Top 10

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Georgia Tech
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. Virginia Tech
7. Miami
8. Tennessee
9. North Carolina
10. Boston College

Miami-North Carolina Preview: Are the Hurricanes On Upset Alert?

ACC SEC Blog — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:14:36 -0500

Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels

Line: Miami -3

The Butch Davis Bowl takes place for the third time as Miami travels to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina.

North Carolina Head Coach Butch Davis used to be the head guy at Miami where he brought the Hurricanes back to national prominence. Current Miami head coach Randy Shannon is looking to do the same and has his team ranked in the top 25 at 7-2.

The Hurricanes need a win and a Georgia Tech loss to pull into a tie for the Coastal Division lead. The Tar Heels are looking to extend their winning streak to three games and improve their bowl position after a rough start to the season.

Davis has beaten his old team in the first two meetings since he took over at UNC. The winner of this game will likely move into one of the top four bowl spots while the loser could fall anywhere.

Keys To The Game

Can North Carolina Pressure Miami QB Jacory Harris?

The Tar Heels ranks fifth nationally in pass yards allowed. On the season they have 23 sacks led by Sophomore Robert Quinn with 10.

Meanwhile, Miami has given up 26 sacks on the season. Harris is great at finding receivers when given time, but he is not going to beat you with his feet scrambling so the Heels should come after him.

But if UNC cannot get to the Sophomore QB, then it will be a long day for their defense chasing the speedy Miami receivers around the field.

Can Miami Force UNC QB TJ Yates To Beat Them?

I am a big proponent of a defense making the opposing offense beat you “left-handed” by taking away their best weapon.

North Carolina is not gang busters by any means of offense, but they are considerably better running it than throwing it. The 109th rated pass offense is throwing it for just 153 yards per game.

If Miami cannot stop the run then it will allow UNC to chew clock and keep the ‘Canes potent offense on the sideline.

Prediction

I think UNC has turned the corner and is playing much closer to what most thought they would before the season.

This will be the best defense Miami has faced all year and I think they will have a tough time moving the ball consistently.

If UNC can limit the turnovers, especially on their side of the field, I think they have a great chance for the upset playing at home.

North Carolina Wins and Covers +3

Georgia-Auburn Preview: Which Beleaguered Defense Will Step Up?

ACC SEC Blog — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:00:59 -0500

The Deep South’s oldest rivalry renews for the 113th time as the Auburn Tigers travel to Athens to face the Georgia Bulldogs.

The Tigers lead the all-time series 53-51-8, but have lost the last three meetings.

For many years, the game was played off-campus in Atlanta’s Piedmont Park or in Columbus, Ga.

These schools are more like cousins than rivals, though. Both share the Battle Hymn of the Republic as a fight song (not the fight song), and both have hedges surrounding their fields.

But maybe the biggest similarity is from the coaching ranks, where both prominent coaches played for each other's respective teams. Longtime Georgia coach Vince Dooley lettered at Auburn while former Tiger head coach Pat Dye played at Georgia.

On paper, this one looks like an offensive shootout with two good offenses and two subpar defenses.

Stopping The Run?

I do not see either QB lighting it up through the air in this game, so I expect both teams to try and grind it out on the ground.

Auburn has been running the ball with ease all year, and recently, Georgia has turned to the running game too, averaging nearly 200 yards in their past three games.

The defense that can slow the opponent's running game down and force more passes on second and third downs will give their team a big advantage.

Red Zone Conversions

Both teams have done a good job of getting points on the board once they get inside the 20, but Auburn is doing a better job at getting touchdowns as opposed to field goals.

On the defensive side of the ball, Georgia has stopped the opposition one out of every seven times from even getting points and is also forcing a lot more teams to go for field goals than Auburn is.

The team that fails to convert in the red zone could be out of luck in a close game.

Turnovers

UGA is minus 16 (-1.78 per game) in turnover margin this year. They are a little bit better in their five wins with only a minus seven margin.

Auburn is plus four on the season but is trending negatively over the past five games at minus four.

The team that can reverse their turnover woes is likely to win the game.

Prediction

Both teams will be able to rush the ball with some success, but as the game goes on, I see Georgia’s defense coming up with more stops. In their past three games, they are giving up just 106 YPG compared to Auburn’s 143 yards of offense on the ground.

UGA has the better weapon in the red zone in 6’4” AJ Green, who is back this week after sitting out last week with an injury. Also, kicker Blair Walsh has shown good accuracy from long range.

The caveat to all of this is Georgia’s turnover problem that has yet to be solved, but Auburn has coughed up the ball a lot in SEC play too, so their season margin is a bit misleading.

I like Georgia to survive an offensive shootout and win at home, overcoming a tired Auburn team who is playing their 11th straight game of the year.

Georgia Wins and Covers -4.5

SEC Predictions For Nov. 14: Tennessee Not Focused, Miss. State Upset?

ACC SEC Blog — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:09:17 -0500

Despite the news out of Knoxville and waiting until the facts are clear, I am pressing on with some predictions for the SEC this weekend. Five conference games, including a big one in Athens, highlight the schedule this weekend.

Even with the two division races sewed up, some teams are still looking to qualify for bowl games.

Last week I was 10-0 SU and 5-4-1 ATS overall and 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the SEC.

Tennessee Volunteers at Ole Miss Rebels

Line: Ole Miss -4.5

I am sure Lane Kiffin loved being awakened from his sleep next to his beautiful wife to hear three of his players had been arrested last night. I am also going to guess that the focus of the Volunteer football team and coaching staff is now not 100 percent focused on Ole Miss like it should be.

But even before all that, I liked Ole Miss in this game because of how they have played at home and how UT has played on the road this season. Ole Miss is having a disappointing year, but it is not a bad year by Ole Miss standards and the Rebels should not be slighted for underachieving when looking at the spread.

Ole Miss Wins
Ole Miss Covers -4.5

Kentucky Wildcats at Vanderbilt Commodores

Line: Kentucky -3

Last year Vandy came into Lexington and beat Kentucky on their way to their first bowl game since the early 80s. Now it is payback time for Kentucky who will ride their underrated defense into Nashville.

Also, I like what UK is doing on offense now and wonder why they have not done it all year? But now they may switch back to Mike Hartline at QB this week if he is healthy.

Anyways, I like the Wildcats to take down a despondent Vanderbilt team.

Kentucky Wins
Kentucky Covers -3

Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks

Line: Florida -16

Brandon Spikes is sending the three Tennessee Vol players chocolates for taking him off the news. A simple eye gouging looks pretty tame right now in the SEC.

The end of the season is getting near and that must mean South Carolina is starting to play worse. The defense is banged up and not playing at the same level that got South Carolina fortune and glory in September.

Meanwhile, the Gators' defense has been lights out on the road this year giving up under 200 yards per game and 10 points. I think Florida wins and covers here after sleepwalking through the Vandy game.

Florida Wins
Florida Covers -16

La. Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigers

Line: LSU -24

La. Tech has been close in three straight games, but fallen short in all three most notably against Boise State last Friday. LSU is coming off a tough loss at Alabama last week.

The Tigers will win this one easily, but I do not think they cover. LSU will have a tough time getting up for La Tech who is sandwiched between arguably their two biggest rivals, Alabama and Ole Miss.

LSU Wins
La Tech Covers +24

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Line: Alabama -12

You have to like Dan Mullen's confidence by coming out and saying his Bulldogs will beat Alabama on Saturday night. I am sure Nick Saban took that comment at face value.

Davis Wade Stadium will be rocking like it was for Florida, but I don't know if they can count on two interception returns for touchdowns as Alabama might not pass the ball that many times. Miss State's defense is giving up 219 rush yards per game on the season.

I think the Tide run the ball down their throats, control the clock, and get out of Starkville with a win.

Alabama Wins
Alabama Covers -12

Clemson Calamity and Duke Downfall?: ACC Predictions for Nov. 14

ACC SEC Blog — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:52:47 -0500

The ACC is jam packed with six conference games this Saturday. Can Georgia Tech wrap up the Coastal Division against Duke? Will Clemson suffer a let down against NC State on the road. With QB Christian Ponder out, will FSU lose to Wake Forest for a fourth straight year? I give my insight and predictions for this week's game below.

Last week I was 10-0 SU and 5-4-1 ATS going 5-0 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in the ACC.

Clemson Tigers at NC State Wolfpack
Saturday 12PM
Line: Clemson -8

Clemson can take one more step towards an Atlantic Division title with a win over NC State in Raleigh. The Tigers went back and forth against FSU last week, but their defense and Heisman candidate CJ Spiller proved too much for the Seminoles.

The win was big because Clemson had the pressure squarely on their shoulders and came out and performed—something the Tigers have failed to do for many years.

Now comes the proverbial let down against a much lesser opponent, NC State. The Wolfpack got their first ACC win of the season over Maryland last weekend. NC State does not play much defense as it is giving up 435 yards per game over their past three. But their offense has come alive, especially through the air, throwing for over 1,000 yards in their last three.

The Wolfpack are a better team at home than on the road, but Clemson has too much offensive firepower for State to keep up. I like the Tigers here to get them one game closer to the ACC Championship.

Clemson Wins
Clemson Covers -8

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils
Saturday 12PM
Line: GT -12.5

Georgia Tech travels to Durham to face Duke where a win by the Yellow Jackets will clinch the Coastal Division for Paul Johnson's team. The Jackets had to escape Wake Forest in overtime last Saturday despite out gaining the Deacons by nearly 170 total yards. The win was the seventh in a row for Ga Tech and they have now moved up to number seven in the BCS ratings.

Duke's three game winning streak was snapped by North Carolina last week and the loss sent the Blue Devils into a tie for second with three Miami and Virginia Tech at two losses.

David Cutcliffe's club has made strides on offense this year, but the real improvement has been on the defensive side of the ball where they are giving up just 252 yards per game, including 116 on the ground over their past three games.

This is a good matchup for Duke because their offensive strength of passing the ball matches up well with GT's defensive weakness. Wake Forest ran for under 50 yards last week, but nearly won the game against GT.

Georgia Tech will be able to run the ball on Duke better than others have, but not at the same clip the Jackets have recently. I like Ga Tech to win, but Duke will make it closer than people expect.

Georgia Tech Wins
Duke Covers +12.5

Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Saturday 12PM
Line: Wake -5

Wake Forest will be going for their fourth straight win over Florida State on Saturday. Who would have ever have thought that could be a possibility?

But the Deacons must overcome two straight losses in the final moments to ranked teams in their last two games. Florida State's chances in this game took a hit when starting QB Christian Ponder was ruled out after separating his shoulder last week at Clemson.

Recently, FSU's offense has been lights out gaining over 450 yards per game over their past three mostly through the air throwing for 312. But that could change drastically with EJ Manuel now leading the 'Noles into Wake Forest. FSU has not shown much ability to run the ball consistently. A strong running game is a young QB's best friend.

Wake Forest has been about average in most everything this season suffering three very closes losses in the conference. I like QB Riley Skinner's decision making ability against a porous FSU defense.

The numbers tell me FSU will make this game very close, but those stats are based off a Ponder led offense. I will take Wake to win and cover the five points.

Wake Forest Wins
Wake Forest Covers -5

Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland Terrapins
Saturday 1PM
Line: Va Tech -18

Virginia Tech hopes to keep their ACC Championship hopes alive by taking care of business in College Park against a 2-7 Maryland team. The Hokies are coming off a 16-3 road win at East Carolina last Thursday, a game where freshman running back Ryan Williams tore the Pirates up for 179 yards on the ground.

Maryland lost to NC State last Saturday to extend their losing streak to four games and the pressure is mounting on Ralph Friedgen to step down as head coach.

What is most surprising about Maryland's struggles this year is that they are on the offensive side of the ball which you would not expect on a Friedgen team. Their defense has played fairly well as of late, especially on the ground where they are holding opponents to 75 per game over their past three.

The Hokies are getting better in the pass game, but prefer to keep it on the ground with Williams an QB Tyrod Taylor improvising.

I think the matchup here bodes well for Maryland, making this one closer than expected. I like the Terps to hold their own for three quarters and cover the spread.

Virginia Tech Wins
Maryland Covers +18

Boston College Eagles at Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday 3:30 PM
Line: BC -4

After leading the Coastal Division just two weeks ago, the Cavaliers ship is sinking faster than....Al Groh's coaching career. Virginia stayed with Miami for a half last week and then got their doors blown off by the Hurricanes in the second half.

Boston College is coming off a bye week and needs the win to stay in the Atlantic Division race.

If you were to segment the Cavs season into three parts, the first would be bad, the second would be good, and the third would be really bad. The fourth part of the season contains three games where UVA will be underdogs including this one.

UVA cannot run the ball with much success, nor can they throw with much success as of late putting a lot of pressure on their tired defense to keep them in games.

Now we are never really sure which BC offense will show up, but regardless the Eagles' defense is good enough to hold UVA to two touchdowns. I like Boston College to take this game and cover it by at least a touchdown.

Boston College Wins
Boston College Covers -4

Clemson vs. Florida State Preview: Dabo Swinney and the Tigers Are All In

ACC SEC Blog — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 23:55:41 -0500

The muddled ACC Atlantic may become a little clearer on Saturday night when Division leader Clemson welcomes FSU to Death Valley. The Seminoles have rebounded after some early season stumbles to stay in the Atlantic Division race.

Clemson has been in this situation before with all the marbles to play for, but they have to go all in by winning a division or conference title, which they have not done since the early 90s.

Here are three questions I think must be answered by the winning team.

1. Will CJ Spiller Have a Good Game Or a Great Game?

The senior Clemson running back is closing on the all time record for all-purpose yards with a potential Heisman season. The Tigers have finally unlocked the multiple ways in which Spiller can be used and it is really helping their offense.

To have a great game though, I think Spiller needs to be fed the ball in the running game and get a big chunk of his yards that way.

FSU has shown they will give up yards on the ground this season. If Clemson wants to win this game they have to stick with Spiller on the ground instead of going with the pass in short yardage situations.

2. Can Clemson Slow FSU’s Passing Attack?

The unstoppable force meets the immovable object when FSU’s pass offense meets Clemson’s pass defense. The Seminoles are averaging 344 yards passing per game over their past three contests.

But Clemson is giving up just 127 yards through the air over that same period. This battle will likely be decided by how much pressure Clemson’s D-line, especially their talented DE tandem, can put on FSU QB Christian Ponder.

3. How Much Home Cooking Does Clemson Get?

No, I am not talking about the refs. I am talking about the energy the crowd brings to Death Valley. It is one of the loudest venues in all of college football and if Clemson gets up early by two scores then it will be rocking. I don’t know if FSU can overcome that kind of deficit on the road in front of that crowd on a Saturday night.

Prediction

Year after year Clemson gets so close to that elusive ACC Championship Game and falls apart at some point in the season. Well the Tigers have already collapsed and come back from the dead to again lead their division.

I think with the way Clemson has played as of late achieving very good balance on offense, maintaining a high level of intensity on defense, and killing teams on kick returns with Spiller and Jacoby Ford, they will be too much at home for an improving Florida State to overcome.

I like Clemson to win and cover the nine point spread.

Clemson Wins
Clemson Covers -9

Alabama vs. LSU Preview: These Guys Just Don't Like Each Other

ACC SEC Blog — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 23:22:25 -0500

The SEC West will likely be decided in Tuscaloosa on Saturday when Alabama meets LSU. With a win, Alabama will clinch the SEC West and meet Florida in the SEC Championship Game. If LSU wins here they control their destiny to get to Atlanta.

These two teams have played some classics the last two years with the road team winning each time. In fact, the road team has a very good record in the series over the last 28 meetings, winning nearly 70 percent of the time.

And in case you have not heard, Alabama head coach Nick Saban used to coach at LSU. Throw it all in to a pot of gumbo and you have one of the best rivalries in the SEC.

Lets take a look at where I think this game will swing.

1. Can LSU Stop Alabama On First Down?

Alabama’s offense likes to run first, run second, and pass when necessary; that is not by choice. If the Tigers can keep Alabama in 2nd-and-8 or longer then Alabama will have to pass more to get first downs.

I will take this LSU secondary over the Alabama pass offense in obvious pass situations with the way the ‘Bama o-line has protected and Greg McElroy has thrown the ball as of late.

2. Can LSU Run The Ball?

Terrance Cody’s legend grew even larger than the 350ish lb DT has with his two blocked field goals to save the game against Tennessee. LSU has a big body running the ball in Charles Scott, but he needs his offensive line to move Alabama off the ball.

If the Tigers have to depend on Jordan Jefferson passing the ball, it will be a long day for the LSU offense.

3. Who Wins The Turnover Battle?

It sounds like coach speak, but when you have two teams with very equal talent, it levels the difference and can simply come down to turnovers. The past two games in this series have swung on turnovers.

It will come down to Jefferson and McElroy making smart decisions and runners holding onto the ball against fast and physical defenses.

Prediction

Alabama is coming off a bye week so they should be rested after looking a little sluggish in their previous two games. I think Alabama’s defense will make it very hard for LSU to get more than 21 points in this game.

The Tigers have just as much talent as the Tide on both sides of the ball. But even with the change at defensive coordinator from last season, I still do not feel LSU is performing up to their talent level on defense.

Mark Ingram slowly wears the Tigers down in the fourth quarter to seal the win for Alabama, but LSU covers the 7.5 spread.

Alabama Wins
LSU Covers +7.5

ACC Predictions for Nov. 7: Who's Going to Cover and Who's Not

ACC SEC Blog — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:48:21 -0500

The ACC has a good slate this weekend, loaded with five conference games. Clemson-Florida State headlines the action, but before we get to that game let's look at the rest of the action around the conference.

Last Week I was 4-2 ATS and 4-2 SU in my picks.

Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes

Line: Miami -14

The Cavaliers are coming off two straight division losses, but those two teams also lead the division (Ga Tech, Duke). Miami came from 13 down to beat Wake Forest, who was without their starting QB Riley Skinner late in the game.

UVA has played fairly well on the road this season, outgaining and outscoring their opponents. Although their last three games have not been great, I like Virginia to bounce back and make this one closer than expected.

Miami Wins

Virginia Covers +14

Maryland Terrapins at NC State Wolfpack

Line: NC State -6.5

You don’t want to miss this one, ACC fans, as the two bottom feeders in the Atlantic meet—and the Wolfpack have their best chance yet to get a conference win. But seriously, this has become a heated rivalry dating back to the Philip Rivers era in Raleigh, so I expect both teams to come out fired up regardless of their records.

The Wolfpack’s defense has played much worse than expected this season, but played reasonably well at home, allowing just 22 ppg and 261 ypg. Conversely, the Terps have really struggled away from College Park, giving up nearly 500 ypg and 37 ppg.

I like NC State to finally get an ACC win in convincing fashion over Maryland.

NC State Wins
NC State Covers -6.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Line: GT -16

Georgia Tech is just two conference wins away from clinching the Coastal Division, and is coming off an offensive explosion against Vanderbilt last week scoring 56 points. Wake Forest lost a heartbreaker to Miami, 28-27, and QB Riley Skinner’s playing status is questionable for this Saturday.

The Yellow Jackets have really got it going on offense as of late, averaging 358 rush yards and 39 points per game over their past three contests. The Deacs are giving up 234 rush yards per game on the road this season and have already lost to Navy, who runs an offense similar to GT.

The only thing that makes me nervous is the “trap game” aspect, but you would have thought that would have come last week against an out-of-conference opponent, and it did not. I like Georgia Tech to win this one going away.

Georgia Tech Wins

Georgia Tech Covers -16

Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels

Line: UNC -10

The Duke Blue Devils are just two wins away from being bowl-eligible, but even more importantly they control their destiny in the Coastal Division, with just one ACC loss. North Carolina is coming off an upset win at Virginia Tech last Thursday for their first conference win on the season.

The Blue Devils are red-hot as of late, outgaining their opponents by nearly 200 yards per game over their last three contests. They have also been very good at stopping the run, allowing just 99 ypg over that same span. If Duke wins, it would be for just the second time in 20 tries.

North Carolina has had a disappointing season thus far considering the talent they had coming back. A double-digit spread seems too much in a rivalry game that usually comes down to the end. I like UNC to pull out the victory, but see them winning by less than a touchdown.

North Carolina Wins

Duke Covers +10

SEC Predictions For November 7: Who's Going To Cover and Who's Not

ACC SEC Blog — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:45:00 -0500

The SEC slate is heavy with FCS schools this weekend, but we still have four intriguing conference games including LSU at Alabama. But before we get to the Tide and Tigers, lets look around the rest of the SEC.

Last week I was a promising 5-2 straight-up and 5-2 against the spread.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks

Line: Arkansas -7

Two likely bowl teams meet as South Carolina travels to Arkansas. The Gamecocks missed a golden opportunity last week to move up in the pantheon of teams in the SEC East by stumbling at Tennessee. Arkansas essentially had a bye week by scheduling winless Eastern Michigan.

The home field will play a big part in this game. South Carolina has really struggled away from Williams-Brice Stadium scoring just 16 points per game and rushing for only 88 yards. Meanwhile, the Hogs have run it up in Fayetteville this season where they are averaging 540 ypg on offense.

The Gamecocks defense has been stout on the road but has suffered from poor field position given to them by their offense and special teams.

I like Arkansas to take this one at home comfortably.

Arkansas Wins

Arkansas Covers -7

Memphis Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers

Line: Tenn -26

Memphis travels across the state to play Tennessee who is coming off a resounding Halloween night win over South Carolina. The Volunteers are pegged as 26-point favorites over the Tigers.

On the season, Memphis is giving up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. That stat dose not bode well against a run-first Tennessee team. Also, the Vols have steadily gained momentum in the passing game as well as the season has gone on.

I think this line is pretty much spot on, but I give the edge to UT because I think Lane Kiffin may pour it on late to further build his teams’ confidence.

Tennessee Wins

Tennessee Covers -26

Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators

Line: Florida -35

Eye Gate has been all the rage surrounding the Florida program this week with star LB Brandon Spikes initially suspended for half a game and now a full game this weekend.

Meanwhile, the Commodores come into town fresh off a loss at home to Georgia Tech whom they led early in the third quarter.

All this discussion around last week’s game makes me think Florida may not be entirely focused on Vandy. I think the ‘Dores make a game of it in the first half. Florida pulls away some in the second half, but not enough to cover five touchdowns.

Florida Wins

Vanderbilt Covers +35

Virginia Tech-East Carolina: Can Hokies Avoid Back-To-Back Losses?

ACC SEC Blog — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:04:33 -0500

The Hokies try to rebound after a stunning home loss last Thursday to North Carolina on the road against East Carolina. The Pirates beat Va. Tech last season in Charlotte after blocking a late punt. The loss prompted Frank Beamer to reconsider Tyrod Taylor’s redshirt a year ago.

This East Carolina team is not as good as last year’s, but is still a tough out under Skip Holtz. ECU has been very good at home this season out gaining their opponents by 85 yards per game. Their defense also plays much better at home giving up just 17 points and 83 yards rushing per contest.

Winning back to back Thursday games is tough, especially when the second one is on the road. Just ask Georgia Tech this year or Miami last year or North Carolina. Well, maybe not North Carolina.

Even with a bye week before UNC, I think Virginia Tech was still distracted from the Georgia Tech loss the previous week because all I read about surrounding the Hokies was the question of illegal blocks in that game, not about preparing for the Tar Heels.

I think Va Tech is more focused this week but has a tough task covering 13 points on the road against a BCS pest in East Carolina.

Va Tech Wins
East Carolina Covers +13

SEC Power Rankings After Week 9: Florida Clinches East, Moves To No. 1

ACC SEC Blog — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:50:52 -0500

Last week I was 5-2 SU in the SEC and 5-2 ATS. I missed badly on Auburn-Ole Miss but hit Florida-Georgia and GT-Vanderbilt , among others.

We have more controversy in the SEC after Eye Poke Gate in the WLOCP, as Florida LB Brandon Spikes is suspended for just a half against Vandy. But the big game this weekend is Alabama-LSU which should decide the West. Did Florida’s big win over UGA vault to back to number one?

1. Florida

Tim Tebow is now the SEC’s all time rushing touchdown leader (sort of) and Brandon Spikes is now the Dusty Rhodes of the SEC. I honestly don’t know which honor is better.

2. Alabama

Terrance Cody blocked six more field goals in practice this week. One was a crystal ball circa 2003 with LSU’s logo on it.

3. LSU

Tigers looked good against “in state rival” tune-up, I mean Tulane

4. Tennessee

Not to get all Heidi Klum on you, but the white helmet messed up the black and orange uniforms; maybe a black helmet with orange T. But Tennessee looked good on the field.

5. South Carolina

Gamecocks have still not found a running game five years into the Spurrier era.

6. Georgia

I never thought I would put Mark Richt and hot seat in the same sentence, but a loss to GT this year and it is a very real possibility.

7. Arkansas

That was a nice win. Maybe we can stop scheduling win less MAC teams now.

8. Auburn

Nice bounce back win for Auburn. I guess Ole Miss didn’t bring the blueprint to stop Auburn (tic).

9. Ole Miss

Good thing the tailgating is still top five in Oxford, because the team is far from it. Might be time take the redshirts off the Miss America’s for Houston Nutt.

10. Miss State

Dan Mullen is making Miss State interesting…and fast.

11. Kentucky

Rich Brooks is a good coach, but he is not getting Kentucky into the SEC Championship Game. I wonder how long the timeline is for Joker Phillips’ takeover.

12. Vanderbilt

The black sheep of the SEC lost to an ACC team by 25 points.

Tier I
Florida, Alabama

Tier II
LSU

Tier III
Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss State, Kentucky

Tier IV
Vanderbilt

Things I Learned This Weekend

It does not matter what uniforms Georgia wears, their talent and coaching is not going to change this year.

Florida’s defense will let them play with anyone in the country no matter what their offense is doing. And the offense was much better on Saturday

Tennessee’s defense, much like Florida’s, will let them play with anyone in the SEC as long as Monte Kiffin is around.

Dan Mullen is changing the mindset in Starkville to Yes, We Can.

Jevan Snead’s season has to be considered one of the most disappointing in recent memory.

Top Story Lines Heading Into Week 10

LSU and Alabama meet in an SEC Championship Game and therefore a BCS Championship Game elimination game.

The conspiracy theories will continue with star Florida LB getting just a half game suspension for his eye-poking incident on Saturday.

South Carolina travels to Arkansas in a game with bowl implications on the line. Winner could be playing on New Years Day, and the loser could be in Shreveport.

This is not the weekend ESPN paid billions of dollars to the SEC for with games like Tenn Tech at UGA, N. Arizona at Ole Miss, E. Kentucky at Kentucky, Furman at Auburn, and Memphis at Tennessee.

Southern and Massachusetts Top 10
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Georgia Tech
5. Clemson
6. Tennessee
7. Virginia Tech
8. Miami
9. South Carolina
10. Boston College

National Top 10
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Cincinnati
7. Boise State
8. Oregon
9. LSU
10. Georgia Tech

ACC Power Rankings After Week 9: Georgia Tech Remains Clear No. 1

ACC SEC Blog — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:41:17 -0500

Looking at my picks for last week , I went 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS. I hit Duke winning as underdogs to UVA and the GT cover of SEC opponent Vanderbilt, but missed out on the Central Michigan's upset of BC badly.

Georgia Tech leads the charge for the ACC once again, but who is on the Jackets' heels right now? Virginia Tech looked like they were still sulking their loss from a week ago in going down to North Carolina in a rare home loss on Thursday.

Miami came from 13 points down to beat Wake in Winston Salem and keep their ACC title hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils beat Virginia and with just one ACC loss still control their destiny in the Coastal Division.

1. Georgia Tech
Yellow Jackets are clearly the best team in the ACC right now.

2. Clemson
Tigers bandwagon is starting to fill up, but will it reach Tampa or breakdown in Pickens County this weekend?

3. Virginia Tech
Hokies can kiss their BCS at-large hopes goodbye with rare Thursday home loss.

4. Miami
Hurricanes catch a break in Winston-Salem and keep ACC title hopes alive.

5. Boston College
Eagles bounced back nicely with resounding win over MAC power Central Michigan.

6. Duke
Blue Devils control their own destiny in the Coastal Division just like everyone had predicted.

7. Florida State
Seminoles are doing their best to keep their bowl streak alive.

8. North Carolina
Tar Heels finally get a win in the ACC.

9. Virginia
Cavaliers continue free fall from top of Coastal Division with second straight loss to Duke.

10. Wake Forest
Deacons just aren’t getting the same bounces they have in the past.

11. Maryland
Terps had a bye week to prepare for NC State

12. NC State
Wolfpack have best chance for conference win against Maryland this week.

ACC Rankings by Tiers

Tier I
Georgia Tech

Tier II
Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami

Tier III
Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia

Tier IV
Maryland, NC State

Things We Learned Over the Weekend

When Georgia Tech’s offense gets going, it is nearly impossible to stop and there is no blueprint for it.

Virginia Tech this season is just an average ACC team when they are not focused.

Miami’s maturity was the difference against Wake. The Hurricanes lose that game a year ago.

You cannot blame FSU’s offense for their woes this season.

Duke can play with anyone in the ACC and will be a tough out for their four remaining opponents.

Top Story lines For Week 9

Georgia Tech tries to keep rolling against Wake Forest a team who has played GT’s offense three times in 13 months going 1-2 against Navy.

Virginia Tech has the dreaded back-to-back Thursday game on the road at East Carolina. With BCS hopes gone, how do the Hokies respond to an out-of-conference game?

Clemson hosts FSU in an Atlantic showdown with BC as a very interested observer.

Duke travels to North Carolina looking for just their second Victory Bell win in 20 years.

Maryland and NC State play for the Atlantic cellar. The Wolfpack are the only winless team in ACC play.

Southern Top 10
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Georgia Tech
5. Clemson
6. Tennessee
7. Virginia Tech
8. Miami
9. South Carolina
10. Boston College

National Top 10
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Cincinnati
7. Boise State
8. Oregon
9. LSU
10. Georgia Tech

Georgia-Florida Preview: Can The Bulldogs Dance On The Gators Again?

ACC SEC Blog — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 23:05:57 -0400

One of the greatest spectacles in all of college football convenes on Saturday afternoon when Georgia and Florida meet in Jacksonville. The No. 1 Gators come into this game stumbling a bit after three tough games against SEC West foes, but have survived all three to remain undefeated.

Georgia had a bye week last week, but is suffering through a disappointing 4-3 campaign thus far. Back to that bye week because the team with it has won the last 13 times. UGA had one before their 2007 win. Vegas has installed the Gators as a 14.5 point favorite after opening up at 16.

Three Keys For A Georgia Cover

1. Establish A Running Game

Even as disappointing as Florida's offense has been this season, I think Georgia's has been even more disappointing. A big reason for this is the lack of running game where the Bulldogs rank last in the SEC at 108 ypg. If UGA wants to pull off the upset they have to establish the run like they did on their first drive in 2007.

2. Pressure Tebow

The Gators offensive line has struggled the last two weeks allowing Arkansas and Miss State to hit the former Heisman Trophy winner plenty. That pressure created two turnovers that turned into two touchdowns for Miss State. Tebow is the type that never wants to give up on a play and UGA can force him into bad ones by getting in his face.

3. AJ Green Superstar

The sophomore wide receiver has to be the best player on the field. It will tough against two of the best corners in the country, but Green is probably the most talented receiver in the country. Green needs to have his best game of the season.

Three Keys for a Florida Cover

1. Hold Onto The Ball

The Gators have turned the ball over 13 times this season, including nine fumbles. Six of those turnovers have come in their last two ball games, arguably their two worst of the season. If Florida wins the turnover battle, I think they cruise. But if not then they give a talented UGA team a chance at the upset.

2. Move the Ball Vertically

Florida's lack of play makers on the outside has been much discussed and is still not solved. I expect UGA to come out stacking the box making Florida throw the ball deep.

If the Gators can then it is game over, but if they cannot they are forced to grind out drives where turnovers and field goals are more likely to happen. Deonte Thompson needs to step up for the Gators at wideout.

3. Get Up Early

Much has been discussed of Florida's recent dominance winning 16 out of the last 19. These two teams have relatively equal talent each year, but a big difference has been the confidence and intimidation Florida has brought ever since Spurrier arrived in 1990.

If Florida gets up early by two scores then I think doubt creeps into the Bulldogs' heads. If not, then a talented and hungry UGA team will hang around and you never know what the final quarter may bring.

Prediction

I think Florida's offense is ready to bounce back this week and plays better than it has as of late. I also think Georgia comes out playing much better off the bye week.

I really want to pick Georgia to cover this game and maybe even win it. The Gators are beat up physically while Georgia is rested.

Also, this season resembles 2007 for Georgia and this game is when they got it on track.

But I just can't do it. Florida's defense is too much for UGA to consistently move the ball. And unlike 2007, Tebow is relatively healthy. I like Florida to break this one open in the second half.

Florida Wins by 17
Florida Covers -14.5

Georgia Tech Hopes To Avoid Letdown Against Vanderbilt

ACC SEC Blog — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:59:56 -0400

Teams from the ACC and SEC match up on Saturday night when ACC leader Georgia Tech travels to Nashville to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Yellow Jackets have the ACC Coastal Division title in their sights, but cannot afford a letdown against a pesky Vandy team that nearly beat South Carolina last week.

The two head coaches have some history against each other competing for Southern Conference titles at Furman (Bobby Johnson) and Georgia Southern (Paul Johnson) in the late '90s and early '00s. Vegas has installed GT as 12-point favorites after opening at 13.5.

Three Keys For A Vanderbilt Cover

1. Stop The Option Inside Out

There is no blueprint for stopping this offense, but the teams that have the most success have stopped the run up the middle first and forced the pitch outside. The pitch forces the most errors for GT and bogs down its offense.

2. Get Some Offense

The anemic Commodores offense is averaging just 323 yards and 17 points per game on the season. It has gotten even worse as of late, with Vandy scoring 11 points per game over its last three games with under 300 yards of offense. The 'Dores have to be able to move the ball to keep with GT and cannot rely solely on special teams and defense to keep the game close.

3. Get Some Turnovers

When you are an overmatched opponent physically, you need something big to break your way, and that usually involves turnovers. A wet field and ball would help Vandy, as would forcing the pitch. See point one.

Three Keys for a Georgia Tech Cover

1. Control The Ball

Georgia Tech is tops in the nation in time of possession at nearly 35 minutes per game. It is hard for the other team to score when it does not have the ball. And if the opposition cannot score, it cannot win.

2. Cover Kicks

Vandy freshman Warren Norman has two kickoff returns for touchdown this season and averages nearly 30 yards per return. GT opponents have already taken one back this season and are getting nearly 25 yards per return. Also, GT has just one touchback this season.

3. Come Out With Energy

As I mentioned earlier, this game is a little different for Ga Tech because it is a non-conference game in the middle of the season against an SEC bottom-feeder. Also, the atmosphere is not going to be even close to what Miss State has especially if the weather is sour. The Yellow Jackets need to put this game away in the first half and not allow Vandy to gain confidence at home.

Prediction

Georgia Tech has really turned it up in its last three games, especially on offense, and if the Jackets keep executing teams will have a very tough time stopping them. But, if any coach is going to know GT's offense it is Bobby Johnson from his days at Furman.

However, Vandy simply does not have the players to line up man-for-man and beat Georgia Tech. The Commodores rank 87th nationally in stopping the run while GT is second in rush offense. Barring a loss of the turnover battle, I see Georgia Tech winning and covering

Georgia Tech by 14

Georgia Tech Covers -12

SEC Saturday Predictions: Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee Win

ACC SEC Blog — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 23:35:10 -0400

The SEC East will shake out considerably after this week with the top four teams squaring off against each other.

In the West, Ole Miss tries to stay on track facing a struggling Auburn team on the road. The East and West clash when Miss. State and Kentucky meet in Lexington. Arkansas steps out of conference to face winless Eastern Michigan.

Last week I was 6-0 SU and 0-1 ATS in the SEC. I am going to pick all the games ATS this week and hope my luck with the SEC continues.

Ole Miss at Auburn
Line: Miss -4

The panic button is being hit in Auburn right now after three straight losses and an offense losing its steam after a fast start. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is starting to hit their stride, winners of three of their last four.

Auburn is averaging half the points in their last three games as they were during their five game winning streak. But their defense is getting even worse allowing 32 over their last three. I don't think the Tigers are experienced or deep enough to overcome the negative energy surrounding the program right now.

Ole Miss by 13
Ole Miss Covers -4

Eastern Michigan at Arkansas
Line: Ark -38

The Eagles of Eastern Michigan are 0-7 on the season, but did run with Michigan down just 24-17 at the half. Arkansas should be over their sulking after the Florida loss as the SEC has all new officiating conflicts to worry about this week.

Neither defense is very good, but the Arkansas offense is definitely better. The Razorbacks should run away with this one, but I do not think they cover this massive spread.

Arkansas Wins by 35
Eastern Michigan Covers +38

Miss State at Kentucky
Line: UK -3.5

The Dan Mullen show goes to Lexington this week to face the resurgent Kentucky Wildcats. The Bulldogs have to be running low on energy after the effort expended against Florida last Saturday.

Miss State has played pretty well on the road this season beating Vandy and Middle Tennessee State. Kentucky has had trouble stopping the run and Miss State is averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground. I think this one comes down to the wire.

Kentucky Wins by 1
Miss State Covers +3.5

South Carolina at Tennessee
Line: Tenn -5.5

The two biggest mouths in the South meet in ESPN's Saturday Night game when Lane Kiffin's Volunteers meet Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks. Tennessee is coming off a gut wrenching loss to Alabama, missing three field goals. South Carolina struggled but beat Vanderbilt at home.

Tennessee has really turned up the defense lately giving up just 319 total yards over their last three. And QB Jonathan Crompton has picked up his game after a rocky start to the season.

Meanwhile South Carolina is still struggling on offense and relying heavily on their defense. I like the Volunteers at home with the confidence they brought back from Tuscaloosa.

Tennessee Wins by 10
Tennessee Covers -5.5

ACC Predictions October 24: Virginia Tech, FSU, Miami, and Duke Win

ACC SEC Blog — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 23:54:50 -0400

It is almost the weekend, so time for some predictions. I am going to switch it up a little a try and do every ACC game by the spread. Last week I was 3-3 SU, 0-1 ATS in the ACC while going 6-0 SU and 0-1 ATS in the SEC. See if my luck changes at all this week in the ACC.

Thursday, October 22

North Carolina at Virginia Tech
Line: VT - 16.5

Virginia Tech is coming off of a bye week, having lost to Georgia Tech the week before. With Miami's loss, the Hokies have to hope GT slips up, or else the Hokies can do no better than second in the Coastal. There has been a lot of talk surrounding the plays Frank Beamer submitted to the ACC about illegal and unsafe blocks in the GT. But I haven't seen a lot about the UNC game and its importance. This makes me think VT may not be as focused as it should be.

North Carolina played last Thursday and lost at home to FSU. It is very tough to do back-to-back Thursday night games—especially when the second one is on the road. The Heels have yet to play to their talent level this season.

Looking at the home and away stats it is pretty rough for UNC as compared to VT at home. But on the season it compares relatively favorable for the Heels, as do the last three games.

Normally, I would go blindly with the Hokies at home on a Thursday night, but Beamer is just 26-23 off a bye week coming into this season. Plus, I don't think the Hokies are as focused as they should be and UNC is due for a good game.

Virginia Tech 28 North Carolina 14
North Carolina Covers -16.5

Saturday, October 24

NC State at Florida State
Line: FSU -9

This line opened at -7.5 and has moved to 9. The Wolfpack are coming off a much needed bye week after three straight losses. Tom O'Brien has done fairly well off a bye week—at 15-9 in his career.

On the season, NC State's stats look good against FSU's, but the Wolfpack have not been near that level in their last three and especially in their two road games. The Seminoles should have renewed confidence after the come from behind win at UNC last Thursday.

Florida State 38 NC State 27
Florida State Covers -9

Central Michigan at Boston College
Line: BC -6

The Eagles are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame last week. Central Michigan beat Bowling Green last week. The Chippewas are 1-1 against BCS competition this year beating Michigan State in East Lansing on an onside kick recovery and losing at Arizona 19-6 to start the season.

The Eagles have been two different teams at home versus on the road this season furthering my argument that BC is a tough place to play . But BC is giving up more points than their opponents and 65 yards more per game in their last three games. Watch out for Central Michigan's QB Dan LeFevour who is as good of a dual threat QB in the nation.

Central Michigan 31 Boston College 28
Central Michigan Covers +6

Miami at Wake Forest
Line: Mia -7.5

The Hurricanes suffered a devastating loss last week against Clemson, probably dashing their ACC title hopes. This young team will need to bounce back quickly though against a cornered Wake team losers of two straight.

Miami's offense is getting better statistically as the season goes on. Wake has maintained an even keel on the road versus at home and recently as compared to the entire season. I like Wake to make this one close at home.

Miami 31 Wake Forest 24
Wake Forest Covers +7.5

Duke at Virginia
Line: Virginia -7

The Blue Devils have their first back-to-back ACC wins since 1994 and are going for a third straight to move one step closer to bowl eligibility. The Cavaliers ride atop the ACC Coastal is over after last week's defeat to Georgia Tech. Duke won this game handily last year in Durham—blowing it open in the second half to win 31-3.

Home field has not been nearly as kind to UVA as in the past, going just 1-3 thus far in 2009. Meanwhile, Duke has held its own on the road scoring 33 and giving up 30 per game. I really like the momentum Duke has right now and call for the upset!

Duke 28 Virginia 27
Duke Covers +7

Are the ACC's BCS Championship Hopes Already Dashed?

ACC SEC Blog — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:19:36 -0400

The ACC has not been eliminated from the BCS Championship competition, but it is on life support. A few weeks ago, the ACC looked like it had a shot with Virginia Tech, who rose all the way to No. 4 in the polls before suffering cardiac arrest in the second half against Georgia Tech.

Now the top-ranked team, Georgia Tech, stands at No. 11 in the latest BCS standing—with a mountain to climb to get to Pasadena. A combination of factors are working against the ACC getting to the BCS Championship game for the first time since 2000, including conference parity and the influence of preseason polls.

This season, like most in the ACC, has been filled with parity (or mediocrity depending on your view). The Coastal triumvirate of Georgia Tech, Miami, and Virginia Tech all beat each other on their home field, and the Atlantic has its usual three-way tiebreaker of .500 teams into late October.

Meanwhile, Florida and Alabama have emerged in the SEC unscathed, Texas has not lost yet, Iowa from the Big 10 is undefeated, and two BCS-busters (TCU and Boise State) are trying to take the same girl to the dance. The ACC has no one but themselves to blame for their situation, right?

Well, not completely. Even though the BCS rankings are released halfway through the season, they are weighted heavily from two human polls that are cast beginning in the preseason. And the preseason polls have not been kind to the ACC over the years.

But this year could have been different. The ACC started off with Virginia Tech ranked No. 7 in the preseason Coaches Poll with a showdown against No. 5 Alabama looming in the first week. But the Hokies promptly lost and were sent packing all the way to No. 15 in the Coaches Poll—worth one-third of the BCS rankings.

After just one week, the ACC's highest-ranked team was Georgia Tech at No. 13. Above the Yellow Jackets were four teams from the SEC, two teams from the Big 12, two from the Pac-10, two from the Big 10, and two from non-BCS conferences. Well, the Yellow Jackets promptly lost two weeks later at Miami, were sent out of the Coaches Poll and told not to let the door hit them on the way out.

The conference then rallied around media darling Miami, who was off to a 2-0 start with wins over Top 25 teams. The Hurricanes were supposed to be the bread and butter when they entered the ACC in 2004. Well, the Hurricanes ran into a deluge in Blacksburg and lost to the Hokies. With the win, the Hokies worked themselves back up to No. 6, but the eventual loss to Georgia Tech ended their chances.

The merry-go-round continues.

But even if the ACC had an "elite" team, would it sway the pollsters enough to put them in Pasadena? How would you feel if Ohio State or Oklahoma was in the BCS Championship game this year after numerous failures before?

The ACC, long a basketball-first conference, has not sniffed the BCS Championship game since 2000, when Florida State faced Oklahoma. Outside of Virginia Tech's win last year in the Orange Bowl, the ACC was 1-9 in BCS bowls, with the lone win coming 10 years ago.

Those 10 appearances were the minimum number of bids, as the champion getting a bid each year. Contrast that with the SEC's 17 BCS bowl appearances, and the Big 10—who leads all conferences with 19.

The ACC's best chance in 2009 is the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, currently 7-1 and ranked No. 11 in the most recent BCS standings. But history is not on the Yellow Jackets' side either ,as no team has made it to the BCS Championship game after being ranked lower than eighth with six weeks or less remaining.

It will be hard for the Jackets to make up ground, as they have largely finished the strength of the schedule. Only games against Vanderbilt, Duke, Wake Forest, and Georgia remain. Meanwhile, GT's neighbors in the standings all have a season-making game left. Oregon has a game with No. 4 USC, LSU plays Alabama, Iowa and Penn State have Ohio State remaining, and TCU faces Utah.

To add insult to injury, the Atlanta Journal Constitution thinks Georgia Tech can make it to the BCS Championship game in 12 easy steps—all they need are teams like Texas, Boise State, Cincinnati, Iowa, USC, Oregon, and TCU to lose.

And of course, Georgia Tech needs to win out and finish with a 12-win season—something they have never had.

Is it fair the ACC is the Rodney Dangerfield of the BCS? Yes and no The conference has not had a strong showing in previous BCS games, but the level of competition has risen significantly in recent years. With some more hype in the preseason, the ACC could be poised to return again to the BCS Championship game.

But for now, ACC fans, let's just enjoy the notoriety while it lasts and hope we can get some strong finishes this season. There is always next season.

SEC Power Rankings, Week Eight: Alabama, Florida Struggle But Stay On Top

ACC SEC Blog — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:27:04 -0400

Both Florida and Alabama survived scares from first-year coaches Saturday and cement their status at the top of the SEC. LSU bounced back to remain firmly in third. Tennessee showed a lot of fight and determination to break into my top five with a showdown looming against South Carolina this week.

Auburn continues its slide and Arkansas suffered a hangover from last week that traveled all the way to Oxford with them. It was pretty good week picking games, going 6-0 SU, but 0-1 ATS. How does the SEC stack up after Week Eight?

1. University of Terrance Cody's Forearm (Alabama)

Forget Ingram for Heisman, how about Terrance Cody for Heisman? He would have no problem with that dinner circuit. But seriously, Alabama has to find a passing game to win the national title.

2. Florida

I was going to put Florida No. 1 if they looked good against Miss State, but they did not. The offensive line is having issues on the interior, and a downfield threat has to yet to emerge.

3. LSU

The hat got back on the right track by beating up on Auburn. A new Saturday night winning streak begins.

4. South Carolina

What is it with South Carolina and Vanderbilt? The Gamecocks just cannot ever put these guys away.

5. Tennessee

The laughing at Lane Kiffin has gotten a lot quieter with Tennessee's performances against Alabama and Florida. But the anger is still pretty high in Gainesville, with Kiffin calling Alabama the No. 1 team in the nation by far. It's these kind of remarks that make the rivalries in the SEC the best.

6. Georgia

The Bulldogs have about the best situation they could hope for heading in to Jacksonville: Decided underdogs against a team who has struggled their last two weeks. And UGA played pretty well in the second half vs. Vandy and had a bye week to prep.

7. Ole Miss

Jevan Snead, is that you? We have been looking for you in Dallas since last January.

8. Kentucky

This team is getting better as the season goes on, and could be in line for their fourth bowl bid in a row.

9. Arkansas

I bet Bobby Petrino wishes the SEC would have not made such a big deal about the refs, because I think it distracted his players this week.

10. Auburn

Dennis Green is still standing at that podium.

11. Miss State

A valiant effort by Miss State against Florida, but they proved once again you cannot win in big time college football without a QB no matter what kind of offense you are running.

12. Vanderbilt

If you watched the Vandy-South Carolina game, it was a microcosm of Commodore football over the last 20 years—close counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, not SEC football.

Here is how I would rank the teams by groupings.

Tier I

Florida, Alabama

Tier II

LSU

Tier III

Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Kentucky

Tier IV

Arkansas, Auburn, Miss State

Tier V

Vanderbilt

Top Storylines for Week Nine

1. World Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
The last time Georgia beat Florida in 2007, the Bulldogs were coming off a bye week and had gotten blown out by Tennessee a few weeks earlier. I am not sayin', I'm just saying.

2. Lane Kiffin vs Steve Spurrier
The new big mouth in town meets the old big mouth as South Carolina travels to Knoxville for an important SEC East game. Kiffin has not been a favorite in the Palmetto State after telling prized recruit Alshon Jeffery if he went to South Carolina he would end up pumping gas for the rest of his life.

3. Auburn In A Slide
The Tigers started out 5-0 but have come back to Earth with a three game losing streak. Can they get it going against Ole Miss who looks they are after some early season stumbles?

After eight weeks of action, here is my Southern top 10 from the ACC and SEC.

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. LSU
4. Georgia Tech
5. Virginia Tech
6. South Carolina
7. Clemson
8. Miami
9. Tennessee
10. Georgia

My National Top 10

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. USC
5. Cincinnati
6. TCU
7. Iowa
8. Boise State
9. LSU
10. Georgia Tech

ACC Power Rankings After Week 8: Georgia Tech Just Keeps Rolling

ACC SEC Blog — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 11:42:35 -0400

Things are starting to shake out in the ACC Coastal Division as they become even more jumbled in the Atlantic Division after Week 8. Georgia Tech now sits atop the Coastal tiebreaker by virtue of their win over UVA and Clemson's win over Miami.

The Atlantic Division has three teams with two losses and three teams with three losses. But this side of the conference picked up two big road wins over the Coastal with FSU also taking down North Carolina.

Not a great week on picks for the ACC going 3-3 SU and 0-1 ATS.

1. Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets dominated Virginia, out-gaining the Hoo's 447 to 198. Then they became big Clemson fans as Georgia Tech now holds the Coastal lead by virtue of their tiebreaker over Virginia Tech.

2. Virginia Tech

Bye week to get ready for a down North Carolina this Thursday. Hokies know they have to win out to have a shot at another ACC title or BCS at-large bid.

3. Clemson

Kind of fitting that two Florida guys, CJ Spiller and Jacoby Ford, lifted Clemson to victory at Miami. The Tigers look like they are beginning their annual second half of the season rise.

4. Miami

The youth of the 'Canes finally caught up to them yesterday as Miami turned the ball over four times. Miami is better this year, but they have to show it coming back from adversity, something they failed to do late last year.

5. Boston College

The Eagles come up just short of a seventh straight win at Notre Dame. If this team had an average ACC quarterback I think they are the favorites in the Atlantic.

6. Florida State

The Seminoles showed a lot of fight coming back from 18 on the road last Thursday in Chapel Hill. There is still talent here enough to win the Division, but FSU cannot suffer any more lapses.

7. Virginia

The Dennis Green Award goes to Virginia this week.

8. North Carolina

North Carolina's defense really let them down on Thursday and their offense has been letting them down all year.

9. Duke

Duke gets back-to-back ACC wins for the first time since 1994 and needs just two more wins to become bowl eligible.

10. Wake Forest

Even great coaching cannot overcome mediocre talent every year. Navy did not throw the ball once in their 13-10 win over the Deacs. And bad news Wake fans, you face the same offense with better athletes in two weeks.

11. Maryland

How is the Maryland basketball team looking this season?

12. NC State

The Wolfpack's bye week could not have come at a better time. Just think, this team beat the second-best team in the Big East a few weeks ago.

Are the Techs clearly at the head of the conference? How much farther down are NC State and Maryland than everyone else? Here are my groupings for the ACC after Week 8.

Tier I

Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

Tier II

Clemson, Miami

Tier III

Boston College, Virginia, Florida State, North Carolina

Tier IV

Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, NC State

Three Storylines For Week 9

1. BCS Hopes
Georgia Tech is the front runner in the ACC now, but if Virginia Tech keeps winning, the conference could get two BCS bids for the first time ever.

2. Out of Conference
The ACC hopes to flex its muscle against weaker opponents out of conference. Georgia Tech travels to Vanderbilt, BC hosts Central Michigan, and Clemson hosts Coastal Carolina.

3. Bowl-Bound Blue Devils?
Duke hopes to make it three straight ACC wins when the travel to Charlottesville to face Virginia, who they stomped last year.

After eight weeks of action, here is my Southern Top 10 from the ACC and SEC.

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. LSU
4. Georgia Tech
5. Virginia Tech
6. South Carolina
7. Clemson
8. Miami
9. Tennessee
10. Georgia

My National Top 10:

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. USC
5. Cincinnati
6. TCU
7. Iowa
8. Boise State
9. LSU
10. Georgia Tech

Alabama-Tennessee Preview: Can The Volunteers Keep It Close?

ACC SEC Blog — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 00:33:58 -0400

What used to be the biggest rivalry in the SEC played on the third Saturday in October has fallen off the radar a little bit the last few years and will be played on the fourth Saturday in 2009. The Tennessee Vols are coming off a bye week where they smoked Georgia 45-19 the week before to get to 3-3. Alabama just keeps rolling with a victory over South Carolina last week to move to 7-0.

Vegas has installed the Tide as a 14 point favorite, but that has moved down from an opening of 16.5. Lets take a look at three questions for each team that will help us pick a winner.

Three Questions For Tennessee

1. Letting Loose

Urban Meyer was right. Tennessee played very tight to the vest against Florida hoping to keep it close and look for a late turnover that could win it. UT was running the ball down two scores with under five minutes left.

UT opened up the offense a lot more in their last SEC game blowing out UGA. Do the Vols open the playbook and go for the win or do they play conservative, try to stay in the game, and hope for a turnover late?

2. Crompton—Helpful or Hurtful

On the season, Tennessee starting QB Jonathan Crompton has respectable stats with 1210 yards and 13 touchdowns. But those stats are padded by games against Western Kentucky and Ohio. At times Crompton has been unbearable (UCLA). Last time out against UGA, he completed 20 of 27 for 310 yards and four touchdowns.

Can he have a similar performance against Alabama? I think he needs to for UT to pull off the upset.

3. Put the Brakes on Ingram

Alabama ranks ninth in the nation in rushing yards per game led by Heisman Candidate Mark Ingram. Last game against South Carolina, the sophomore ran for 246 yards on just 24 carries. Tennessee has a pretty good defense, but it has been better against the pass (ninth) than the run (32nd). Can Monte Kiffin get enough guys in the box to hold Ingram to under a 100 yards?

Three Questions For Alabama

1. Greg McElroy Better Play Better

After starting the season hot, the first year starter as cooled off considerably. Last week, McElroy threw for just 92 yards on 10 completions with two picks. He has good receivers in Julio Jones and Marquis Maze but has not been able to find them down field much of late. McElroy has to get in some kind of rhythm so that UT cannot just stack the box on Saturday.

2. Red Zone Woes

The Tide is having success in the red zone scoring on 86 percent of their attempts. But only half of their 31 conversions are for touchdowns. Conversely, Tennessee has allowed just 20 red zone trips and given up two touchdowns inside their 20.

3. Dominant Rush Defense

Alabama ranks third in the nation in rush defense giving up just 63 ypg on the ground. I know Tennessee wants to establish the run and get Crompton settled in with play action pass. If the Tide defense can stop the Vols running game then they can tee off on the passing game. If that is the case then watch out because this could turn into a blowout.

Prediction

I normally like teams coming out of bye week who played well going into it. Tennessee's offense has really picked up the last three games averaging 427 ypg, nearly 30 more than their season average. But the Vols defense is not nearly as dominating as it was early on giving up 347 per game over their last three.

The Tide defense just seems to get better and better each week and I think they really hamper this Tennessee offense and make them win through the air. A 2.5 point move in the line tells me a lot of money is getting put on UT. I am going to pick the other way and take Alabama.

Alabama 27, Tennessee 10
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