Bleacher Report - Articles by Todd Y

Should Minaya Be Fired? A Look at His Track Record

Todd Y — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 20:06:16 -0400

"Ownership is not happy with the direction of the team,'' chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon said before the game against Colorado.

That kind of statement from the team owner would have most GMs in baseball polishing their resume and deleting the porn off their office computer. But Mets GM Omar Minaya may have more job security than most GMs in his spot, considering he hasn't even begun a three-year contract extension he signed last winter.

The New York media is calling for Minaya's head as the team is in the midst of a disappointing season and after Minaya botched his second firing in as many years (remember the late night Willie Randolph debacle?).

But should Minaya be fired? Or should he just focus on his job running the team and leave the press conferences to PR man Jay Horowitz?

I looked at Omar's run since joining the Mets as GM on September 30, 2004. I graded each move as a win, a loss, or even. Here are the results:

1.) Deal RP Mike Stantan to the Yankees for RP Felix Heredia. Stanton was horrible, Heredia got hurt. Result: Even

2.) Signed free agent SP Pedro Martinez. The Mets overpaid, and Pedro broke down after only one good year for the Mets. Result: Loss

3.) Signed free agent OF Carlos Beltran. Beltran is one of the most complete players in the game. Well worth $18 million a year. Result: Win

4.) Omar's first draft for the Mets was big win, despite not having a second or third round pick. He chose SP Mike Pelfrey in the first round, then snagged SP Jon Niese in the seventh round, and RP Bobby Parnell in ninth round. He also stole catching prospect Josh Thole in the 13th round. Result: Big Win

5.) Traded OF Mike Cameron to the Padres for OF Xavier Nady. Cameron wasn't happy having to play RF in New York, and the Mets got younger. Result: Win

6.) Traded 1B Mike Jacobs and minor league SP Yusmerio Petit to Florida for Carlos Delgado. Result: A Big Win - Jacobs is a borderline major leaguer, and Petit won one game for Florida.

7.) Signed free agent RP Billy Wagner. This one could go either way, but signing a 34- year-old pitcher to a four-year deal just isn't smart, and Wagner did what you would expect - he got hurt halfway through the deal. The $10 million the Mets have wasted on Wagner this season could have been well used. Result: Loss

8.) Traded SP Gaby Hernandez to Florida for C Paul LoDuca. LoDuca did a good job for the Mets, and Hernandez has yet to smell the big leagues. Result: Win

9.) Signed 1B Julio Franco to a two-year deal. What a surprise - signing a 47-year-old player to a multi-year deal didn't work out. Result - Loss

10.) Signed free agents Chad Bradford and Endy Chavez. These signings really had a lot to do with the Mets making the playoffs in '06. Bradford was amazing in the pen down the stretch in '06, and Chavez seemed to always be in the middle of late inning heroics off the bench. The Catch. That's all I have to say. Result - Win

11.) Traded Jae Seo to the Dodgers for Duanar Sanchez. A smart move by Minaya selling high on Seo. Seo was 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 2005, but anyone watching knew that was a mirage. Minaya turned Seo into a solid reliever in Sanchez, who was one of the best relievers in baseball the first half of 2006 before he got hurt. Result: Win

12.) Traded SP Kris Benson to the Orioles for SP John Maine and RP Jorge Julio. A smart, long-term move. Benson and his hot wife just didn't fit in New York, and Maine has been productive in his time with the Mets. The Orioles paid $15 million for Benson's 11 wins for them. Result: Win

13.) Mets traded RP Jorge Julio to the DBacks for SP Orlando Hernandez. To get something worthwhile for Julio is automatically a win. Result: Win

14.) The 2006 draft was not so successful as the first one for Minaya. With no first round pick, Kevin Mulvey was the Mets first pick in round two. He was a part of the Johan Santana deal, so he was solid, but the rest of the draft has produced nothing with the exception of MR Joe Smith (since dealt in the JJ Putz deal), and the big question mark 1B Daniel Murphy. Result: Loss (but could change if Murphy pans out)

15.) Traded 2B Kaz Matsui to the Rockies for UTIL Eli Marrero. Matsui was run out of town, but I was never sure why. He never lived up to the hype, but he was still a solid 2B. He hit .345 for the Rockies in 2006, while Marrero was released in August. Result: Loss

16.) Traded OF Xavier Nady to the Pirates for RP Roberto Hernadez and SP Oliver Perez. After Sanchez went down, Omar had hours before the trade deadline to fill his hole in the pen. He did pretty well for himself, getting a solid RP and Ollie as a throw-in who ended up throwing huge innings in the playoffs. Result: Big Win

17.) Traded RP Heath Bell and RP Royce Ring to the Padres for RP Jon Adkins and OF Ben Johnson. This was a head scratcher from the beginning. Why trade a pitcher that throws 98 MPH? Bell is an All-Star closer for the Padres, and the Mets never got anything from their end of the deal. Result: Big Loss

18.) Signed free agent OF Moises Alou to a two-year deal. This rivals the Franco signing on the head Geritol scale. Omar signed the 40-year-old, brittle OF to a multi-year deal and then was presumably surprised when he managed only 87 games the first year, and 15 the second year. Result: Loss

19.) Traded RP Henry Owens and RP Matt Lindstrom to the Marlins for SP Jason Vargas and RP Adam Bostick. Can you imagine if the Mets paired Bell and Lindstrom in their bullpen now? Scary. Result: Definite Loss

20.) Signed free agent RP Scott Schoenweis to a three-year deal. Schoenweis did exactly what you could expect from him during his time with the Mets - got lefties out and got ripped by righties. The problem is that Omar gave him so much money, there were heightened, and unreasonable expectations. Omar eventually had to pay Arizona to take Schoenweiss. Result: Loss

21.) The 2007 draft does not look good so far. Eddie Kunz has not developed as hoped, Nathan Nineyard has already washed out, and the only hope seems to be in 1B Lucas Duda, who is probably fifth on the organizational depth chart at the position. Result: Loss

22.) Traded Drew Butera to the Twins for 2B Luis Castillo. Got a starter for nothing. Good deal. Result: Win

23.) Traded OF Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for C Brian Schnieder and OF Ryan Church. This deal was criticized when it was originally made, but the Mets got two part-time starters for a guy who hasn't contributed anything but heartburn to his managers. Result: Win

24.) Traded minor leaguers Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Geurrera, and Phillip Humber and OF Carlos Gomez to the Twins for SP Johan Santana. No debate needed here. You can argue about the contract the Mets gave Johan, but the trade was big win. Only Gomez has stuck so far in the majors, and he is nothing special so far. Result: Win

25.) Traded SS Anderson Hernandez to the Nationals for RP Luis Ayala. The Mets were so desperate for relief help, they dealt a useful defensive minded infielder for a reliever with a 5.77 ERA (and then made him their closer!). It says something that the Mets actually considered Ayala an upgrade. And Hernandez could have been an invaluable player this season when Jose Reyes went down. Result: Loss

So what's the totals?

Wins - 13

Loss - 11

Even - 1

I stopped at the end of the 2008 season, because it really is too early to tell on the moves made since then.

But his track record is very interesting in one manner- the great majority of his bad decisions happened during the offseason after the 2006 season. He had four loser decisions, and then followed that up with a bad draft in June.

Before and since he has done a remarkable job.

If I were Jeff Wilpon, Omar would continue to be my man running the Mets. I just wouldn't let him fire anyone.

Roy Halladay: Is He, Or Any Pitcher, Worth It?

Todd Y — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 11:39:48 -0400

As the "Roy Halladay sweepstakes" drag on, the question about whether to deal four or five top prospects for one player keeps coming up. The Phillies in particular seem to be playing hokey-pokey with J.A. Happ.

Is it a good idea to trade top notch prospects for a potential Hall of Famer? Well, I decided to look at history to see what it can tell us.

Obviously, it is rare that a former Cy Young winner gets dealt, but it has happened often enough to give us a track record: (note that I did not include 'rent-a-player' deadline deals).

1989: The Twins trade Frank Viola to the New York Mets for Rick Aguilera, David West, Kevin Tapani, Tim Drummond and Jack Savage.

Mets: Viola went 38-33 in 2 1/2 years with the Mets, winning 20 games in '90 but the Mets didn't make the playoffs in his time there.

Twins: Aguilera collected 275 saves over eight seasons with the Twins, with 3 All-Star appearances

Tapani was a solid ML pitcher, going 75-73 in six seasons with the Twins
The others didn't amount to much, but the Twins got a top of the rotation starter and a closer out of the deal.

Advantage - Prospects

1991: The Mets tried again to nail down an ace by sending Gregg Jefferies, Kevin McReynolds, and Keith Miller to the Royals for Bret Saberhagen

Mets: Saberhagen went 29-22 in 3 1/2 injury plagued years with the Mets

Royals: Jefferies played just one year with the Royals before being dumped for nothing.
McReynolds hit .246 with 24 HR's in two seasons.
Miller played parts of four seasons with the Royals, none of them really productive.

Advantage: Prospects (only because Saberhagen was one of the highest paid players in baseball in his unproductive time with the Mets).

1995: The Royals trade David Cone to the Blue Jays for Chris Stynes, David Sinnes, and Tony Medranno. The Jays then flip Cone at the trading deadline to the Yankees for Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis, and Mike Gordon.

Yankees: Cone went 18-8, 3.57 ERA in '95, winning 54 games over 5 1/2 seasons with the Yankees, four ending in championships.

Interestingly, NONE of the six prospects that went to the Royals and Jays became even decent major leaguers. Stynes had one decent year with the Reds, but that was it.

Advantage: Cy Young Pitcher

1997: The Expos trade Pedro Martinez, a 25-year-old Cy Young Award Winner, to the Red Sox for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas

Boston: Martinez: 117-37 in seven seasons with the Sox.

Montreal: Pavano went 24-37 with an ERA over 5 in 4 1/2 years with the Expos.
Armas had a slightly better career ERA of 4.37, mostly with the Expos.

Advantage: Huge Advantage for the Cy Young Pitcher. The age of Martinez when the deal was made really should be looked at as the key reason for the success of the deal.

2005: The Diamondbacks deal Randy Johnson to the Yankees for Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey, and Dionnar Navarro.

Yankees: Johnson went a disappointing 34-19, 4.5 ERA in two seasons with the Yankees.

DBacks: Vazquez spent one season with the DBacks, going 11-15, with a 4.42 ERA, before being dealt for Chris Young, who has been up and down for Arizona, and El Duque. Navarro would have been a good pick-up, but the DBacks dealt him for a washed up Shawn Green.

Advantage: Prospects. Considering the Yankees lost both playoff series that Johnson pitched, and he had a 6.92 ERA for them, I would give the advantage to the DBacks for spinning Vazquez off for a top prospect.

2008: The Twins deal Johan Santana to the Mets for Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Gurrera and Phillip Humber.

Mets: Santana has been a little bit of a disappointment so far, going just 27-15 in his time with the Mets.

Twins: Gomez has been the only one to produce so far. Humber was DFA'd, Mulvey has spent a brief time in the major league bullpen, and Guerrera has struggled in the minors.

Advantage: Too early to tell. I would expect the Twins to come out ahead on this, simply because Santana seems to already be on the downside of his career, and the Mets are committed to pay him $98 million beyond 2009.

So what does history tell us? The Martinez deal aside (how often do 25-year-old Cy Young winners go on the market?), trading a bevy of prospects for a veteran pitcher is a very shaky proposition. The deal the Mets made for the 27-year-old Saberhagen should have been a no-brainer, but he got hurt.

You never know when a pitcher is going to go down, and you also never really know which top prospect is going to develop (remember that David West was the key player in the Viola deal, not Aguilera or Tapani).

When you can acquire a top pitcher for one or two prospects, then it probably is a good deal. But when you give up four or five young players for that one arm, you're probably going to end up on the short end of the stick.

Teams looking to acquire the 32-year-old Halladay should be wary of meeting that large of a price tag.

Now This Is The Worst Team Money Can Buy

Todd Y — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 23:36:15 -0400

During the Mets' 11-0 loss to Atlanta on Friday, announcer Gary Cohen brought up the Mets team in 1993 that lost 103 ballgames. I was curious so I took a look at that team.

You know what I found?

That team was better than the team the Mets put on the field everyday now.

Now, not just better. Much better.

You don't believe me? Look at the middle of that lineup -

Eddie Murray

Bobby Bonilla

Jeff Kent

That trio combined for 82 homeruns among themselves. To put it in other terms, 30 more than the 2009 team has done total. The rest of the lineup was punchless, but with just those three they are already better than the '09 group.

What about the pitching?

That team boasted a rotation whose highest ERA was 4.48. The other four starters were all under four. The bullpen is the only area I would take the 2009 version of the Mets since Johhny Franco had a horrible year, and then got hurt to boot.

So what's my point? Simple.

The Mets are horrible. They are a 100-loss team over the course of a season. You can't blame the players - they aren't very good. You can't blame Jerry Manuel because nobody could win with the team he has to run out there every day. The '93 Mets tried changing managers by firing Art Howe after 38 ballgames. But the great Dallas Green went on to win 37 percent of his games as manager.

The Mets can expect to continue to play Washington National-like ball until September. By then, the DL All-Stars should be back and in something close to game shape. But in the intervening 42 ballgames, playing up to expectations for the Mets should be something like a 15-27 record. This would put the Mets at 57-74 and playing out the string.

I have resolved to stop getting upset at the bad play. Mets' fans just have to accept for the short term that this is the team we have - a team that makes us long for the days of Ryan Thompson, Tim Bogar and Mauro Gozzo. When the highlight of the season was Anthony Young breaking up his 27 game losing streak. Sad that the '09 Mets don't even that kind of guy to root for.

Why The Mets Are Flawed and How to Fix It

Todd Y — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:23:20 -0400

A lot has been made of the Mets' new ballpark and how that should influence how the team is constructed. But I'm here to tell you that those arguments are idiotic.

Citifield is obviously a pitcher's park. Hitting is not a pleasant experience there. Unless you are facing Tim Redding. But guess what? Shea was a pitcher's park too! The Mets have been flawed from the get go, built in fantasy GM fashion that has no possibility of succeeding long term. All the Met organization has had to do is look at the teams that have been successful in the past for their model.

Met teams that made at least the NLCS:

1969—second in team ERA, next to LAST in OPS+, first in Def Efficiency

1973—third in team ERA, next to last in OPS+, third in Def Efficiency

1986—first in team ERA, first in OPS+, fourth in Def Efficiency (what a team that was!)

1988—first in team ERA, first in OPS+, ninth in Def Efficiency (how did that team lose?)

1999—fourth in team ERA, second in OPS+, second in Def Efficiency

2000—third in team ERA, sixth in OPS+, fourth in Def Efficiency

2006—third in team ERA, secnd in OPS+, second in Def Efficiency

ALL of these teams were built around pitching and defense, with varying offensive success. Now, compare that to the way this team is buil:

2008—eleventh in team ERA, third in OPS+, third in Def Efficiency

2009—ninth in team ERA, eighth in OPS, eighth in Def Efficiency

Quite simply, the Mets pitching is just not good enough. Both the lineup and the pitching staff are built the same way—top heavy. A few stars, and then league average players to fill in the rest of the team. The Mets, with a $150 million payroll, should not have planned on starting Ryan Church and Daniel Murphy in the outfield, or Tim Redding and Livan Hernandez in the rotation.

Winning teams not only have stars, they have depth. Look at the Dodgers. Their bench consists of Mark Loretta, Juan Pierre, Brad Ausmus. Their number eight hitter last night was Matt Kemp—who would lead the Mets in homeruns and RBI's.

So how do you fix it? Simple really—make the pitching and defense the strengths of the team. And it really won't take too much to make it happen. The Mets have somewhere around $30mm to spend and are not losing anyone of significance beyond Carlos Delgado. So I would:

1.) Sign Nick Johnson to play 1B. Est. cost - $11 million a year. Perfect for the Mets—solid OBP and defense.

2.) Sign any of Rick Ankiel, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Randy Winn to play LF/RF. Obviously varying costs here, but the idea is to get a number five hitter who can play pretty good defense.

3.) Sign one of the Molinas to catch. I would actually prefer Jose because of his defense, but Bengie wouldn't be bad either.

4.) Trade for Cliff Lee. This is the most important. I would give up any of the pitching prospects for him, so I can imagine a deal of Niese, Holt and Marte for Lee. Remember, that other than Pelfrey, the last Met pitching prospect to develop in New York was Bobby Jones in 1994!

And the Yankees aren't any better. They have Wang, but then you go back to Pettite in 1995. Pitchers just don't get the opportunity to develop in New York for whatever reason. So the Mets would be smart to deal their pitching prospects for a guy who has already proven himself.

So the 2010 Mets would be -

Rotation:

Santana

Lee

Pelfrey

Ollie

Maine

Lineup:

Reyes

Johnson

Wright

Beltran

Winn/Holliday

Martinez

Molina

Castillo

The bench would have Church, Santos, Murphy and Cora on it—solid ML players who can step in and start without the team skipping a beat.

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. If Omar and his cronies don't learn quickly that Met teams have to be built around pitching and defense to win, he will follow in the footsteps of immortals such as Steve Phillips and Al Harazin.

How To Build a Winning Bullpen

Todd Y — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 17:02:02 -0400

In the dog days of August, it becomes very obvious which teams are pretenders and which ones are contenders.

A lot of that comes down to the effectiveness of their bullpen.

The length of the season, the humidity of August—which makes the ball fly out of parks—and the demanding schedule all conspire to overwork even the best of the 'pens.

ESPN recently ranked the top-10 bullpens in baseball, and I thought it would be interesting to look at how you build a successful pen.

Do you bring in dynamic young players? Or do you sign the wily, experienced veteran? Do you skimp on the 'pen, or do you allocate large amounts of money to build it?

1.) LA Angels

Rodriguez (26-years old) amateur free agent

Speier (34) free agent

Shields (32) drafted in the 38th round

Oliver (37) free agent

Arredondo (24) amateur free agent

Loux (28) minor-league free agent

Total Cost - $22 million

2.) Chicago Cubs

Wood (31) drafted in the first round

Marmol (25) amateur free agent

Howry (34) free agent

Wuertz (29) drafted in the 11th round

Cotts (28) trade

Gaudin (25) trade

Samardzija (23) drafted in the fifth round

Total Cost - $12 million

3.) Philadelphia Phillies

Lidge (31) trade

Romero (32) free agent

Madson (27) drafted in the ninth round

Durbin (30) free agent

Condrey (32) free agent

Gordon (41) free agent

Total Cost - $20 million

4.) Arizona Diamondbacks

Lyon (28) trade

Qualls (29) trade

Pena (26) amateur free agent

Cruz (29) trade

Slaten (28) drafted in the 17th round

Rauch (29) trade

Total Cost - $10 million

5) Chicago White Sox

Jenks (27) claimed off waivers from the Angels

Dotel (34) free agent

Thornton (31) trade

Logan (23) drafted in the 20th round

Linebrink (31) free agent

Carrasco (31) free agent

Total cost - $13 million

Your thoughts? Pretty cheap, huh?

A lot of the relievers were acquired off the scrap heap from other teams and were guys that were not highly sought after.

None of these teams wasted high draft choices to build a 'pen. It's interesting that one of the worst 'pens in baseball, the New York Mets, is comprised of not one, but two first-round picks, plus a third rounder, and then a highly-paid free agent closer.

Brad Lidge is the only closer on this list who makes real money, and its only $6 million this year. Kerry Wood is the only first-round pick.

What we learn?

1.) Don't waste high picks on relievers

2.) Younger closers are better

3.) Younger relievers overall are better. Count—Five of 30 players are over 32.

4.) Be cheap. There is no reason to spend $25-35 million on your 'pen.

5.) You really can look at a team's 'pen to evaluate the effectiveness of the scouts and general manager. Look at some of the deals here: Bobby Jenks claimed off waivers?! Matt Thornton was drafted in the first round by Seattle, and then dealt to the Sox for Joe Borchard.

That says a lot about both teams. Houston gave up Brad Lidge, who is perfect as a closer this year, for Michael Bourn, who is hitting .233 with four home runs.

6.) The old idea that spending big money on set-up men is a waste actually doesn't hold a lot of truth here. Arizona is the only team that doesn't have at least one $3-6 million set-up man.

7.) The all-important lefty specialist isn't so important. Out of the five teams, there is only one lefty specialist. Only Neil Cotts would qualify as a lefty specialist (Romero was one, but has 'graduated' into a true set-up role). The other teams don't have one, or have used players interchangeably in that role.

Interesting, but no holy grail. You have to be smart, have a good scouting system, and get some luck to build a strong 'pen. But throwing money or high draft picks at the problem only makes things worse because then you are stuck with the guys you bring in.

The New York Mets: Looking Ahead To '09

Todd Y — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 07:35:43 -0400

At 40-42, and signs that the firing of Willie Randolph hasn't had any magical effect on the team, it makes sense to start looking ahead to next year for Met fans.

Regardless of the poor play of the Braves and Phillies, the Mets are nothing more than an average team as currently constructed. They are sixth in the league in runs scored and eighth in team ERA —a middle of the pack team with a top of the line payroll.

But there is some light at the end of the tunnel, and that lies in the contracts that come off the books after this season. Check the money freed up at the end of the year:

Carlos Delgado - $12mm (+$4mm paid by Florida)

Moises Alou - $7.5mm

Orlando Hernandez - $6.5mm

Pedro Martinez - $11.5mm

Oliver Perez - $6.5mm

Jorge Sosa - $2mm

Total - $46mm

Since the team is also moving into a new stadium, there shouldn't be any reason to cut payroll, in fact that gives the team the very real option of boosting their current payroll. So, where does that money get spent?

Needs:

1.) #2 Starting Pitcher

The Mets need a starter to slot in between Johan Santana and John Maine. I can't see the Mets bringing in another $20mm a year pitcher like Sabathia, so they will look at the choices a step below that. Available options: AJ Burnett, Ben Sheets, Jon Garland, and possibly re-signing Perez. Another option is Japanese import Hu Darvish, but again he cost more than the Mets are willing to spend.

2.) First Base or Left Field

The question the Mets will have to answer for themselves after the season is, "Is Fernando Martinez ready for the big leagues?" Martinez, the 19 year old top prospect, is currently hitting .299/.335/.443 at AA. If the Mets decide he is ready, the left field job is his. If he needs another year, which he probably does, the Mets will need a short term answer in left, plus someone at first.

It's doubtful the Mets will give the first base job to a minor leaguer (Mike Carp or Nick Evans), and neither is considered a top prospect. Available options are slim at first base where Mark Teixeira is really the only top of the line option. There's very little doubt the Mets will in the running for him, but if they lose out, the Mets will have to look at other options like converting a veteran 3rd baseman such as Joe Crede or Adrian Beltre into a first baseman.

Left field offers some better options, so the Mets may take the stance of signing an OF, and then converting someone into a first baseman when Martinez is ready (or giving Martinez a first baseman's mitt). Milton Bradley, Adam Dunn (who can already play 1B), Wily Mo Pena, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu are all good options for the Mets.

3.) Bench

The Mets have been hamstrung by an ineffective and short bench this year and GM Omar Minaya has to do a better job of building the bench. OF backups Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson are already under contract, along with backup catcher Ramon Castro, so the IF is where the Mets can improve the bench. Someone like Aaron Miles, Mark Loretta, or Tadihito Iguchi would be a good fit.

Omar Minaya has had two bad offseasons in a row, despite the Santana deal. This offseason is going to be crucial not only to the team's success, but to his ability to keep his job.

The Mets can re-load and once again be a top contender when they open Citifield in '09, but for that to happen Omar has to learn from his mistakes and stop relying on aging veterans.

Smart free agent signings such as the 29-year-old Jon Garland, the 31-year-old Milton Bradley or 29-year-old Adam Dunn will prepare the team for another run at the division title. Now, if they could just find someone to take on the contract of Luis Castillo.

Fix Jose Reyes, and Fix the New York Mets

Todd Y — Sun, 25 May 2008 13:50:43 -0400

The saying around the Mets the last few years has been "As Jose Reyes goes, so goes the Mets." This is one of the few truisms that actually proves to be true. Take a look at the striking difference in Reyes in wins over losses during the last season and a half:

Reyes -

'08 -

In wins - 1.013 OPS

In losses - .507

'07 -

In wins - .892 OPS

In losses - .633

This huge differential is not true for the Mets' other big hitters. For example, David Wright's numbers were very consistent last year: 1.002 OPS in wins versus a .915 OPS in losses.

The reason observers have pounced on this without even quoting the numbers is that Reyes really is the engine that drives the Mets offense. Who else on the whole team has the energy, enthusiasm and spark to lead the team through a mid-season series in Florida? Nobody.

The rest of the team is made of "professional" ballplayers who show little or no emotion and just go out there and do their jobs. Reyes is not only the most talented player on the team, but he is the one guy that offers something that can't be measured by stats: a charisma that is catching.

So for the Mets to break out of the rut they are in, someone, somehow must "fix" Reyes. So what is wrong with him?

In 2006, he was arguably the best player in the league, hitting .300/19/81, and he continued that barrage the first half of '07 (.307/4/35). He was actually very consistently productive in that time period. But since then Reyes has dive bombed to .251/8/22 in the second half of last season, and only .272/4/20 so far this year.

So what changed? Was the change really related to Willie Randolph benching him for not running out a ground ball? That has been bandied about in the NY media repeatedly over the last year. But I think the change was related to something else that happened around mid-year and has been largely overlooked.

The Mets fired hitting coach Rick Down on July 7, 2007, and replaced him with the great role model of Rickey Henderson! Howard Johnson actually took over as hitting coach, with Rickey becoming the new first base coach, and HoJo has continued to act as hitting coach this season, even after the Mets' slide last season.

Look at Reyes' numbers last year by month -

April -.356

May - .266

June - .330

July - .265

August - .272

September - .205

I think what happened to Reyes in July was simple: he just went into a slump, similar to what happened in May. But the difference was that in May, he had a professional hitting coach to help him work his way out of it. Remember, Down is the coach who helped Reyes improve his walk totals from 27 in 2005 to 47 in just the first half of 2007! Down has been coaching since 1977, so he has over 30 years experience. Compare that to HoJo's run of five years of minor league coaching, and you start to wonder what exactly the Mets were thinking making the move in the first place.

The solution to the Mets' problems does not lie with only firing Willie Randolph. The Mets need a new direction from the top, so firing Willie is probably a good start. But to help Reyes get back on track, and help the Mets start winning games again, the Mets need to hire a real, professional hitting coach. Only then will the last year be put behind them.