Bleacher Report - Articles by Josh Lipman

Not a Homer Anymore: UNC and UConn Are the Nation's Best

Josh Lipman — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 19:01:46 -0400

Having picked the University of Pittsburgh as the National Champion, I can now admit that I am nothing more than a homer.

For that matter, anyone who picked a championship game other than UNC vs. UConn is nothing more than a homer, a casual sports fan, or an idealist—swept up by the enticing prospect that any team is capable of bringing the Championship home (the reason the tournament is so popular in the first place).

However, the fact of the matter is UNC and UConn are head and shoulders (literally: Tyler Hansborough and Hasheem Thabeet) above any other team in the (once) 64-team field.

What I realized with the Panther's heart-breaking loss to the Villanova Wildcats late last night (3:30 am for me in Budapest) is that it takes five great players to excel in the tournament and significant depth to win it.

Though I was bilked into believing a few gifted players supported by solid role players, combined with a little team chemistry would be enough, I was wrong. Though Pitt's "Big Three" (Levance Fields, Dejuan Blair and Sam Young) are as good as any in the country, the team, as a whole, is not. Where Pitt's role players, Brad Wannamaker; Tyrell Biggs; Gilbert Brown; Gary McGhee; and Jermaine Dixon, serve as effective parts to a well-oiled machine, UNC and UConn's role players are simply stars in waiting.

Nowadays, having mere working parts is not enough; a championship-caliber team must have star talent across the board, meaning talented players must be willing to lace up their role playing shoes—something that rarely happens these days.

However, two teams have been able to assemble such squads and will soon have a date with each other in the Big Dance, as a result. As much as anyone loves it when the lowly nerd is able to take the hot girl to prom, when two people are this beautiful, the underdog simply stands no chance.

With NBA-caliber players in Hansbrough and Ty Lawson leading the way, UNC has a glut of veritable stars filling not only roles (Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, and Tyler Zeller) but bench positions, too. With the scoring and play-making ability of established veteran talent like Wayne Ellington, Deon Thompson, and Marcus Ginyard enough to bolster any team, UNC is further blessed with blossoming youngsters in Ed Davis, Will Graves, and Larry Drew II. With an able bench constituting a formidable Big East team, the depth and breadth of UNC's talent is rare and undeniable.

The story is much the same with the University of Connecticut. Led by A.J. Price and Hasheem Thabeet, UConn posses yet another double-double threat in Jeff Adrien and an A.J. Price version 2.0 in young Kemba Walker. Like UNC, they have potential marquee players willing to play a role or come off the bench: Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson, Craig Austrie and Gavin Edwards.

The other common thread? Both teams have both great coaches and great recruiters (haha) in Jim Calhoun and Roy Williams.

While Michigan State, Villanova, and Oklahoma are great, formidable opponents, neither is as deep or as star-studded as these two powerhouses.

Once upon a time, I bet against both of these teams. Sorry, Blake Griffin, I'm not doing it again.

Final Prediction: 68-65 UNC over UConn—Hansbrough simply will not be denied.

Dinesh Patel, Rinku Singh: "Million Dollar Arms" Worth Way More

Josh Lipman — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:18:42 -0500

On Monday, Nov. 24, 2008, the Pittsburgh Pirates made their best baseball decision since plucking Roberto Clemente from the Brooklyn Dodgers in the Rule Five Draft in 1954.

And it might turn out to be even better than that.

In an unprecedented act of progressivism, the Buccos became the first MLB team ever to sign an Indian-born player. In fact, it is the first time in history an Indian-born player has signed a professional sports contract outside their home country, let alone in the U.S.

And it gets better. There are two of them.

Dinesh Patel (a 20-year-old righty) and Rinku Singh (a 19-year-old lefty) were rewarded for their prospect-like performances in India's first "Million Dollar Arm" challenge and their ensuing training with invitations to this year's Minor League Spring Training.

Though neither projects to be a future Hall of Famer, the two reportedly have some respectable stuff: "the 6'2" Singh throws 89-90 mph and has a split-finger changeup pitch, [while] the 5'11" Patel throws a circle change and can reach 91-92 mph with his heater." (from MLB.com).

But this signing means so much more than just the individual talents of Patel or Singh.

While it's not the first international (non-Americas) signing for the new management team of Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly, it's certain to be the most valuable.

Though the Buccos signed South African switch-hitting shortstop prospect Mpho Ngoepe earlier this year, it pales in comparison to what Huntington just pulled off.

Baseball fans everywhere—especially Pirates fans—have about 1,129,866,154 reasons to like this acquisition—one for every potential new fan. While it may take a while for baseball to catch on in India, if it ever does, the Pittsburgh Pirates are sure to be to the Indians as the New York Yankees are to the Japanese.

Not to mention it opens the floodgates for a virtually unlimited stream of potential talent, with the Pirates sure to be atop the list.

It will be some time before Patel and Singh make their major league debuts; but, if and when they do, it is absolutely critical that Pirates are fielding a competitive team if they have any hope of establishing a firm foothold in their new-found potential fan base.

But if they do ever successfully capture the hearts of the Indian people, the dividends will be plentiful in terms of both players and revenue.

It might even eventually lead to the Pirates becoming —GASP— a large market team!

Why the Strikeout Is Undervalued

Josh Lipman — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 04:36:07 -0500

I'm as much of a “Moneyballing Stat-Head” has the next guy, but for all the reasons the strikeout has recently been deemed a useless statistical metric (and there are many), here are six reasons a high strikeout rate makes for an attractive pitcher.

Why GMs want pitchers with high strikeout rates

1. Striking someone out means that the pitcher threw well enough, not only to get the batter out, but to make him miss the ball completely (in most cases). With a pitcher that throws lots of strikeouts comes a guy with pretty good stuff - or at least one who knows how to use his stuff effectively.

2. Strikeouts are like batting average. Just as there are better statistical metrics for a batter's offensive ability (OBP,SLG,etc...), there exist more accurate measures of a hurler's pitching ability (WHIP, HRs allowed, OOBP, etc...).

However, a high strikeout rate is akin to a high batting average in that it's a sign that a ballplayer will probably age well. Batters with a high OBP but a low average early in their career tend to have a drop off in production much earlier in their career (Jeremy Giambi) than someone with a high batting average to complement the high OBP (Jason Giambi).
Similarly, pitchers with high strikeout rates as compared to bases on balls (K/BB) (Greg Maddux) will most likely age better than a pitcher with a low K/BB ratio (Barry Zito).

It’s no guarantee, but it does give a pretty good indication.

3. Sure, groundouts and flyouts are great, but when there’s a man on third and less than two outs, nothing short of a pop out, line drive, or strikeout will do. Seeing that nobody wants to pitch for a line drive, hoping an infielder or shallow outfielder will catch it, the next best thing is to go for that strikeout. Without the strikeout ability, close games can easily be won on sacrifice flies, ground outs, base hits, or walks. 4. It’s demoralizing. Simple, but true, nonetheless. As a batter, what feels worse than lining out with the bases loaded or going 0-for-4 with four flyouts? Striking out with the bases loaded or going 0-for-4 with four strikeouts! How many times have you seen Joe “Big Game” Pitcher strike out that last guy to retire the side? Next time, instead of pumping your fist or listening to the roar of the crowd, watch the batter: the dejection is palpable.

5. It is a decent measurement of a relief pitcher. K/BB is considered one of the better metrics for a relief pitcher, given the anti-statistical environment in which they operate (short time frames, different lengths, certain types of batters, etc…). Other than “inherited runners stranded,” which is criticized for the lack of compensation for which base the runner(s) was actually on before the reliever came in, K/BB is probably the most widely used measurement not called WHIP, ERA or BAA.

6. Perhaps the most important of all, strikeouts are exciting. While the GM may not relish in the excitement the fans certainly do, and they’re the ones that pay to watch the game. Think about it, who would you rather watch: Clay Condrey or Kerry Wood (ERAs: 3.26, apiece)?

For that matter who does Condrey even play for?

If playing for the World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies doesn’t give him the same exposure as a Kerry Wood, I wonder what makes Wood so much more popular and electrifying...

Perhaps it has something to do with Condrey’s relatively mundane 4.43 K/9 compared to Wood’s superhuman 11.40 K/9?

Whether you’re a fan of the K or not, you must admit: it plays an important role in the game and how it’s played and analyzed.

If I Were The Pirates GM...

Josh Lipman — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:27:41 -0500

If I were the Pirates' GM, I'd have the most daunting task in the history of sports!

Nah, just kidding.

However, I would have an incredible challenge trying to put together a championship team in an organization with very little depth and minimal talent at the top, to boot.

In fact, one could argue that I should keep losing with my lovable yet low-salaried bunch, ensuring profits (assuming the team doesn't perform so horribly, as to prevent people from showing up), while stockpiling bunches of No. 1 picks, who will eventually explode onto the scene one right after another, bringing several championships back to the Steel City.

But, after 16 years, we can't wait any longer; we need to win now. Plus, I couldn't imagine the fans' reaction if our minor league affiliates, so flush with the hypothetical myriad of No. 1 picks, actually had a higher payroll than the big-league club.

Hey, it could happen; with the way we allocate money towards the draft, while trading away our high-priced vets, you just never know.

Anyway, as the new head honcho in the front office, I'd have one goal in building a playoff-caliber team this season, without sacrificing long-term success (Dave Littlefield) or bringing in high-priced vets (Dave Littlefield).

The key: finding under-valued, positionally-blocked, unneeded, unwanted or otherwise easily-acquired players with below-market values and bringing them to the 'Burgh, simply hoping that they suddenly put it all together (Kyle Lohse), stop being a head case (Jose Tabata, for now), benefit from a change of scenery (Oliver Perez, Aramis Ramirez) or bounce back from an exceptionally tough year—or two (Nick Swisher).

While the team has begun to accrue some nice organizational depth, do they really have the impact potential to bring home a championship? (see Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche, etc...)

Here's what I'd do:

Infield (Right Side)

I think we are well-heeled at this position with Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez at first and second base, respectively.

At their peak, they could perhaps be considered one of the best first-second tandems in the NL, exceeded only by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley of the Phillies and (maybe) the Mets' Carlos Delgado and Luis Castillo. Some day Cincinnatti's Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips may be better than all of the above.

I'd immediately sign both to 5-year extensions, as neither will have lower value than they do right now. Imagine the benefits of 2006-7 Freddy Sanchez and a second-half (insert year here) Adam LaRoche...

Infield (Left Side)

Jack Wilson is a great guy, don't get me wrong, but shortstop is one of the most key non-pitching positions on the field.

If you can get offensive production without sacrificing much defense (Jason Bartlett for the Rays), you have a significant advantage. While "Jack Flash" can turn a defensive gem as well as anyone in the game, his bat has just been too silent for too long to let him continue in the two-spot...Or has it?

Over the past three seasons:

	Avg.	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB
No. 2	0.283	0.318	0.398	0.716	1,366
No. 8	0.284	0.328	0.417	0.745	324

I believe this qualifies him as a pretty good eight-hole hitter. The World Series Champion Phillies had Pedro Feliz bat eighth, mostly. Though he has more power than Wilson, his career OPS stands at .719, while last season it was a mere .704.

At third base, we have so much potential but so few results (and many worries about rushing our players). With a smorgasbord of not-quite-major-league-ready talent at the hot corner, we have our main opportunity to splurge a little, while relegating Andy LaRaoche, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez to AAA, AA, and A, respectively.

After some delightful window shopping, we will acquire the $9 million man, Melvin Mora (yes, he waved the no-trade clause) from the Baltimore Orioles for catcher Ronny Paulino and a player to be named later. (The Sox wouldn't part with Kevin Youkillis, Colorado wanted too much for Garrett Atkins, and Eric Chavez's salary was a bit too big.

Outfield

We will send Brandon Moss to continue his development in the minors, instead inking Moises Alou to a two-year, $6 million contract.

Likewise, as we await the arrival of young phenom Andrew McCutchen, we quietly sign Rocco Baldelli to a two-year, $5.3 million contract. He will be slated for a platoon in center with the left-handed Nyjer Morgan.

In addition to taking advantage of their respective plate matchups (Morgan against right-handers OBP, SLG, AVG: .349, .385, .304; Baldelli against left-handers: .344, .475, .263), the platoon will give the "Woonsocket Rocket" the rest he needs to stay healthy, while not over-exposing either at the plate. Also, it allows for speed off the bench and a very capable fourth outfielder.

Then, we will move Nate McLouth to right field, in hopes that he has another good year at the plate, while his fine play of balls off the Clemente Wall will put him in line for another outstanding defensive season.

Catcher

Ryan Doumit will be signed to a 7-year, $30 million extension, a great deal for the both of us! We will also retain backup Robinson Diaz.

Bench

In addition to Diaz and one of Morgan/Baldelli, we'll bring back Craig Wilson and Jose Castillio on minor league contracts. We'll also ink third baseman Russell Branyan to a one-year $1.5 million contract, while Doug Mientkiewicz still dreams of that starting role somewhere.

Bullpen

Closer: Matt Capps (R)
Set-up: John Grabow (L)
Short: Doug Brocail (R) (one year, $2 million)
Short: Tyler Yates (R)
Middle: Sean Burnett/Craig Hansen (L/R) (whichever is less wild).
Long: Phil Dumatrait (L)

Rotation

Paul Maholm (L)
Ian Snell (R)
Tom Gorzelanny (L)
Zach Duke (L)
Randy Wolf (L) (two years, $5 million)

If it looks like we're just leaving one of the worst starting rotations intact, we are. Why should we tweak the rotation that much? They still have potential and that is what Joe Kerrigan is for.

Projected lineup

Nate Mclouth: One of the best lead-off hitters in the game
Morgan/Baldelli: Speed and high averages make them a good fit
Freddy Sanchez:While he certainly lacks the pop of a prototypical No. 3 hitter, he always excels in the three-spot. If he can hit in the low to mid .300s, I'll sacrifice the power.
Melvin Mora: Whoops, here comes the power (24 dingers, 29 doubles). His solid OBP (.355, lifetime) will help ensure there's men on for Alou, while his average and power will get Sanchez better pitches, not that he'd even need them.
Ryan Doumit: He adjusted well to his non-fastball vulnerabilities last year, but being sandwiched between Mora and LaRoche will let him see even more hittable pitches. His switch-hitting is valuable here, putting two righties or two lefties in a row.
Adam LaRoche: Perhaps not making him bat cleanup will take some pressure off and eliminate those slow first halves. He can easily move up as he heats up, perhaps switching with Sanchez.
Moises Alou: Not the Alou of old but Alou, nonetheless.
Jack Wilson: See above.
Pitcher: No need to bat the pitcher eighth in this lineup.

A versatile (five lefties or seven righties), yet balanced lineup, sporting good average and decent power (see above).

Projected record: 85-77 Wildcard, anyone?

Pirates Forecast: Analysis and Predictions

Josh Lipman — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 07:14:01 -0500

Predicting what the Pittsburgh Pirates will do in a given offseason has to be one of the hardest tasks in the world.

Granted, the Buccos are under a brand new management team, so we can suppose that they'll do what it takes to build a championship team. But, before the Coonely-Huntington era, our beloved Pirates were operating under perhaps the worst management team in all of professional sports: Kevin McClatchy and Dave Littlefield.

Since 2001, the Pirates fan base has been among the most confused and poorly treated in baseball. After a few losing seasons, we're told that we're in complete overhaul mode; be prepared for some drastic changes.

So what happens?

Over the next several years: we dump promising third baseman Aramis Ramirez for nearly nothing, then trade Brian Giles for two potential superstars in Jason Bay and Oliver Perez (Corey Stewart was in there, too). And then there was Jason Kendall; inked, to a huge, long-term contract as a future franchise cornerstone, he was then shipped off to Oakland for high-priced veterans Arthur Rhodes and Mark Redman.

Then, while rebuilding again in 2006, the Pirates decided to spend millions of dollars upgrading the team with over-priced free agents Jeromy Burnitz and Joe Randa (who soon lost his job to Freddy Sanchez).

Amid a midseason slump, Burnitz, in fact, commented on the state of the '06 Pirates, "I'm Joe High-Paid Free Agent. That, in and of itself, should tell you the big picture that the team's in."

Oh, and who can forget, amidst our last rebuilding process in 2007, the $10 million acquisition of Matt Morris?

So when I'm told we're in "rebuilding mode," forgive me if I'm confused as to what that actually means.

With a 16th consecutive losing season under the collective belt of the Bucco faithful, one can only hope the new management will begin to address our long-term needs, once and for all.

Pirates outlook for 2009 and this off season

Outfield

One of the few areas of depth in the organization, the Pirates should be well- positioned over the next few years with Brandon Moss, Andrew McCutchen, and Nate McLouth expected to comprise a promising young outfield.

In fact, with the likes of Nyjer Morgan, Jose Tabata, Robbie Grossman, Jamie Romak and Steve Pearce all at various stages of development, the Pirates will have a steady stream of outfield talent for the next few years and, perhaps, can deal from a position of strength.

However, few of the aforementioned have established themselves enough to command anything of significance in return, and those who have—McLouth and (to a lesser extent) Morgan—are both young, talented and cheap enough that they'll probably be around for a while.

Prediction: No trades this off season. McLouth signs a long-term deal and Morgan takes Jason Michael’s vacated spot as a primary fourth outfielder.

First Base

Seeing that Adam LaRoche is the only major league-caliber first baseman in the system (Pearce is close, but he's probably more suited for a super backup role, long term), he'll definitely be staying in a Pirates uniform for at least one more season.

Despite his supernaturally-slow first halves and his relatively high salary (probably $6.5-7.5 million after arbitration), his promising potential and his high value as a left-handed power hitter in PNC Park mean he might even be around a lot longer than ’08-‘09.

Prediction: No trade this off season. LaRoche may be approached about a long-term deal, before he starts to put it all together. Breakout season, anyone?

Second Base

The 2008 version of Freddy Sanchez was a far cry from the 2007 NL Batting Champ we all knew and loved.

Despite a chronically-ailing shoulder that the Pirates brass feel will sufficiently heal this off season, many in the Pirates community have called for a trade—especially given his hefty price tag. Sanchez’s recently-signed contract runs through 2009 with a club option for 2010 and is worth up to $18.9 million, after which he’ll be eligible for free agency, basically guaranteeing he signs elsewhere.

With prospect Shelby Ford waiting in the wings, it would be reasonable to expect the fan favorite to be in another uniform by spring training. While I think he’s a likely trade candidate, he shouldn’t be traded this off season.

Huntington and Coonley have repeatedly emphasized their mantra of getting full value in return. Now that Freddy’s stock is down, they’d be hard-pressed to find a buyer willing to part with prospects a 2007-esque Sanchez would command.

I think Sanchez will bounce back nicely in ’09, but could be traded nearer the deadline, with teams feeling the pressure of the playoff race.

Prediction: No trade this off season, though he could be traded at the ’09 trading deadline.

Likely Destinations: Arizona comes to mind, especially if neither David Eckstein nor Orlando Hudson returns. However, the Pirates will be looking to pull in a nice cache of prospects (especially power pitching prospects) that the D-Backs may not be willing to part with given the recent depletion their system has endured.

Shortstop

Oh, the king of them all… Jack Wilson’s name has been floating around in trade rumors for most of the past two seasons. The supposed inevitability of a trade was so certain that Jack received a raucous standing ovation during his last home at-bat this season, showing the fans’ appreciation for his dedication and hard-nosed play in Pittsburgh.

With all the community ties he’s built and with the lack of a suitable replacement anywhere in the Pirates farm system, a Wilson trade is sure to be unpopular, to say the least.

While his salary is somewhat high (for a Pirate), there aren’t many cheap, capable shortstops readily available to replace him. Add to that the noticeable improvement of the Pirates defense when he’s playing, and…

Prediction: No trade this off season! Don’t get me wrong—he’s still one of the most likely to be traded, I just don’t think the Pirates will find a team willing to give up the right value in return. Nonetheless, if an appropriate trade presents itself, don’t be surprised to see Wilson in a different uniform next season.

Personally, I think he’ll end up with the Dodgers, if they can’t bring back Furcal. If they do, I don’t see him going anywhere until perhaps mid-season.

Third Base

By far, third base has the most organizational depth of any of the infield positions. With Andy LaRoche somewhat major-league ready and Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez maybe a year away, there seems to be a bit of a logjam at the third base position.

While no starting role is guaranteed (a la Huntington), no one is ready to push LaRoche for the right to man the hot corner on opening day.

Prediction: Two scenarios...

A—The Pirates bring in a one-year 3B (Doug Mientkiewicz, Rich Aurillia, Russell Branyan, Mike Lamb) to allow the others to develop. Management certainly won’t rush Alvarez so he could be in the minors through 2010, allowing Walker and LaRoche to develop more, then battle it out in late ’09 or ‘10, at which point a position change or trade will be in order.

B—More likely in my opinion: LaRoche gets the job opening day and retains it throughout the season. Then, in ’10, his development at that point will predicate a trade or a trip back to the minors. As for Neil Walker, he may be traded for a prospect at another position sometime this off season.

One thing is for sure: this murky situation will be resolved by midseason.

Catcher

Ryan Doumit is the Pirates’ starting catcher and will be, for at least a few more seasons. Ronny Paulino, on the other hand, has greatly fallen out of favor with management since exploding two seasons ago and probably won’t see much time outside AAA Indy, given Diaz’s suitability as a backup.

Prediction: Doumit gets approached about a long-term deal and Paulino is dealt for pitching prospect. Don’t be surprised to see Paulino in Houston or Cincinnati, despite being in the Buccos’ division.

I’ll add my thoughts about the pitching staff in a separate article. I didn’t realize how long this one was going to be. Comments Welcome :)