Bleacher Report - Articles by James Doker

One Month In, We Can Finally Start Résumé-Ranking (A Post-September Top 25)

James Doker — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 12:48:37 -0400

There are a lot of ways to go about ranking teams in a top-25 ballot.

There are standings, in which teams are ordered solely on win-loss record and other pre-determined statistics. This is used within conferences and in almost every other sport.

But FBS football is a different animal, since great disparity in schedule strength can leave a 12-0 team to be walloped by a 10-2 team (see Georgia - Hawaii, 1/1/2008).

Some people like to think of their ranking as a power poll, where teams are ranked based on who the author thinks would beat whom. Such a poll, by definition, disregards records in favor of a vague idea of one team being "better" by some immeasurable quality known only to the ranker. Websites like ESPN tend to do these for every sport.

Others try to predict the final poll positions of teams once the season is over. This type necessarily uses unknown future results, schedule strength, and author opinion, making it even less useful than a power poll. This is really more relevant for those trying to make predictions, especially during the preseason.

Finally, there is résumé ranking, wherein the ballotter places teams based on whom they have beaten and to whom they have lost, plus the relative strength of those wins. Résumé ranking is an attempt at using human interpretive skills to decifer the actual on-field results of teams.

Résumé rankers try to form their polls with as little bias as possible, often leading to absurd-looking polls in the early season. Notable résumé rankers include Blogpoll voters Dr. Saturday, Rakes of Mallow, and Saurian Sagacity. These pollers might get ridiculed during the first few weeks, but their ranking method is the best way to avoid common biases.

Most top 25 polls are some sort of amalgamation of the previous rankings. Unfortunately, as college football fans have seen yearly, voters in the two main polls tend to build each list based on the previous week's. This may be easier, but it puts teams that start the season lower at a disadvantage (see Auburn, 2004).

With all that said, the whole point of this article is to publish my own ballot for the Bleacher Report Top 25. As you probably figured, this ballot uses the résumé method. I'm starting the ranking only after a month of games have been played. We're finally starting to see what teams are really made of, but the first BCS poll is yet to be released.

Still, there are still plenty of question-marks across the country. This ballot is ripe for criticism, but at least every ranking has some tangible justification (which is more than I can say about most polls).

Each team has a one-sentence explanation for their position:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Their Clemson and Georgia games are easily the best combo of wins so far.

2. Oklahoma Sooners

Haven't been tested yet, but also haven't played anyone expected to test them.

3. LSU Tigers

LSU has the second-best win (after Bama-UGA) of the undefeated teams by beating Auburn.

4. Penn State Nittany Lions

Their domination of Oregon State is what puts the Lions ahead of Missouri, though each team bested Illinois in similar fashion.

5. Missouri Tigers

We'll know more about them after they finally start conference play; the Illinois win doesn't tell much yet.

6. Boise State Broncos

The win at Autzen is better than anything that the undefeated teams below them have.

7. South Florida Bulls

They beat Kansas and blew out NC State, but looked like a different team against in-state puffballs UCF and FIU.

8. BYU Cougars

Stellar so far, but that domination of UCLA is losing its luster by the week.

9. Texas Longhorns

Sure the Horns have looked good, but they need a real win to do any climbing.

10. Utah Utes

Undefeated with a win over Michigan keeps them in the top ten for now, but the big-name one-loss teams are breathing down their neck.

11. USC Trojans

They have the best win of any one-loss team, but not many chances to prove themselves over the rest of the season.

12. Vanderbilt Commodores

Undefeated, with wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina is better than the rest of the SEC East.

13. Georgia Bulldogs

The aura is gone, but they could easily shoot back up the polls by winning out in their miserably hard schedule.

14. Florida Gators

The Gators have a week to recover against Arkansas before a make-or-break home game against LSU.

15. Ohio State Buckeyes

The jury is out until the Wells-and-Pryor version of the Buckeyes gets to play against a real opponent.

16. Auburn Tigers

Their win against Tennessee Saturday was more damning than their earlier loss to LSU was.

17. Ball State Cardinals

Wins over Indiana and Navy put them in front of the second tier of undefeated teams (but still behind the elite mid-majors).

18. UConn Huskies

They definitely aren't sexy, but until they lose a game they've got enough cred to be ranked.

19. Oklahoma State Cowboys

It's hard to believe that wins over Washington State and Troy look better than anything TTU's got.

20. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Against a completely empty schedule, the Red Raiders have done everything asked of them; unfortunately, that still gives them roughly zero credibility.

21. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Their schedule thus far packs even less punch than TTU's, and even if they stay undefeated they won't have any meaningful victories.

22. Oregon Ducks

I think these guys could score with a crash-test dummy behind center (and they may have to, with the QB injuries they've endured).

23. Wisconsin Badgers

Still seem like a strong team, but that Michigan loss is definitely cause for concern with Ohio State looming next.

24. Virginia Tech Hokies

The nonconference win over Nebraska is the only thing pushing the Hokies above the rest of their conference.

25. UNC Tar Heels

This could easily have been Maryland, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, or Florida State; the ACC is way too tough to call right now.

Let the second-guessing commence, and remember that you can submit your own B/R Top 25 ballot by adding "College Football" to your Lineup.

The Current Top 21 College Football FBS Multi-School Nicknames

James Doker — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 15:33:30 -0400

The battle between college mascots is always raging.

Every fan has their own way of ranking them, and every ranking system inherently has some sort of bias. No one can pretend to be totally impartial in such a subjective ranking, so how can we come up with a fair list of the top 21 nicknames?

Win-loss records, of course.

That's right: Using the most comprehensive list I could find, I compiled a list of every mascot that represents more than one FBS college football team. If there's only one team with the nickname, then it's clearly not cool enough to make this list.

I have compiled the win-loss records of each mascot's teams (using this invaluable resource) and used them to rank the top 21 multi-school college football nicknames. Why 21? Because that's how many there are.

Some mascots had many more schools than others, but I've eliminated any of that bias by ranking based on win percentage.

Also, in grouping nicknames I was fairly lenient. In some cases there were slight spelling or coloration differences, but I let those slide.

Without further ado, here's the countdown.

21. Rebels: .208 (5-19)

Ole Miss Rebels: 3-9

UNLV Rebels: 2-10

Apparently the teams from Mississippi and UNLV are rebelling against winning records.

20. Aggies: .342 (13-25)

New Mexico State Aggies: 4-9

Texas A&M Aggies: 7-6

Utah State Aggies: 2-10

I don't think I'd necessarily recognize an Aggie if I saw one in real life, but apparently one of their traits is being mediocre at football.

19. Huskies: .396 (15-23)

Connecticut Huskies: 9-4

Northern Illinois Huskies: 2-10

Washington Huskies: 4-9

While UConn has been stepping their game up lately, Northern Illinois and Washington have devolved enough that the collective Huskies are still bottom-feeders.

18. Bears: .400 (10-15)

Baylor Bears: 3-9

California Golden Bears: 7-6

It's too bad that Cal will forever be tied to dead-weight Baylor—no matter how good the gilded subspecies gets, the Texas variety will bring down the whole family.

17. Owls: .405 (15-22)

Rice Owls: 3-9

Florida Atlantic Owls: 8-5

Temple Owls: 4-8

A year or two ago, these teams were about as scary as their namesakes. Now that FAU has turned around and Temple is on their way up, the Owls are looking a little wiser.

16. Wolfpack: .440 (11-14)

Nevada Wolf Pack: 6-7

NC State Wolfpack: 5-7

With matching seven-loss seasons, apparently these Wolves were staying packed together in '08.

14. (tie) Spartans: .480 (12-13)

San Jose State Spartans: 5-7

Michigan State Spartans: 7-6

Unlike in ancient Mediterranea, the Spartans aren't exactly terrifying warriors on the gridiron.

14. (tie) Cowboys .480 (12-13)

Oklahoma State Cowboys: 7-6

Wyoming Cowboys: 5-7

Maybe these schools fare better at rodeo competitions.

13. Wildcats: .490 (24-25)

Arizona Wildcats: 5-7

Kansas State Wildcats: 5-7

Kentucky Wildcats: 8-5

Northwestern Wildcats: 6-6

The first of our four-team mascots, Wildcats seem destined for mediocrity. They have the closest record to even on wins and losses of the lot, and none of them seem likely to break that mold in football anytime soon. Basketball, however, is a different story.

12. Cardinals: .520 (13-12)

Ball State Cardinals: 7-6

Louisville Cardinals: 6-6

Not a very scary nickname, but at least the birds from Louisville have teeth.

11. Knights: .538 (21-18)

Army Black Knights: 3-9

Central Florida Knights: 10-4

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 8-5

Apparently just plain Knights aren't exciting enough, so you've got to add a color in there. These teams all seem to be on their way up, so the Knights may be getting more courageous in the next few seasons.

9. (tie) Raiders: .560 (14-11)

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 5-7

Texas Tech Red Raiders: 9-4

Apparently red is the color you want if you're a raider. Black and silver apparently aren't that great either.

9. (tie) Bulls: .560 (14-11)

Buffalo Bulls: 5-7

South Florida Bulls: 9-4

Another nickname seemingly on the rise. Texas isn't the only school yelling "Hook 'Em" anymore.

8. Eagles: .564 (22-17)

Eastern Michigan Eagles: 4-8

Boston College Eagles: 11-3

Southern Miss Golden Eagles: 7-6

Boston College is soaring, but Eagles aren't even the best bird mascot.

7. Hurricane(s): .577 (15-11)

Miami (FL) Hurricanes: 5-7

Tulsa Golden Hurricane: 10-4

While one team is plural and the other is singular (and Golden—apparently anything can be golden and become a nickname), they're still too alike to leave apart. I don't imagine they'll be invited to play each other in the Sugar Bowl anytime soon.

6. Broncos: .600 (15-10)

Boise State Broncos: 10-3

Western Michigan Broncos: 5-7

Apparently these horses aren't ready to be tamed by the poor Cowboys up above at No. 13.

5. Bulldogs: .647 (33-18)

Fresno State Bulldogs: 9-4

Georgia Bulldogs: 11-2

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 5-7

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 8-5

Another four-team nickname, the Bulldogs had a pretty good season altogether last year. The only Bulldogs with a losing record were the closest team to beating Hawaii—until Georgia blasted them (incidentally, both games were in Louisiana).

4. Falcons: .654 (17-9)

Air Force Falcons: 9-4

Bowling Green Falcons: 8-5

The Falcons are the champions of the feathered division of mascots. Apparently all it takes to make the top three nicknames is to not have a particularly terrible team.

3. Cougars: .667 (24-12)

BYU Cougars: 11-2

Houston Cougars: 8-5

Washington State Cougars: 5-7

Cougars are often a forgotten mascot (thanks to Lew for pointing out my oversight of the Cougs in the original article), but they come in surprisingly high in the list. Alas, they're still only second in the Feline division.

2. Tigers: .731 (49-18)

Auburn Tigers: 9-4

Clemson Tigers: 9-4

LSU Tigers: 12-2

Memphis Tigers: 7-6

Missouri Tigers: 12-2

The Tigers, although not the top mascot percentage-wise, blew away the competition in terms of total wins. Not surprising, since they also had more teams than any other nickname.

1. Trojans: .760 (19-6)

Southern California Trojans: 11-2

Troy Trojans: 8-4

With the run of success that USC has had this decade, it shouldn't be surprising to find them atop yet another poll. Though not the case in ancient Mediterranea, the men of Troy are victorious.

There you have it folks. Interestingly, the Trojans and Tigers are atop the list, with the Bulldogs also in the top five. Apparently those mascots are giving their teams some pretty good mojo.

It's particularly impressive that all five Tigers teams had winning records. They look to continue their run in 2008, with four teams already in the AP preseason top 10. They could very well take the top spot by the end of the coming football season.

Remember: Just like all aspects of college football, nickname superiority is cyclical—the ones who are on top right now might not be there next year.

If you're planning on starting your own football team, consider this list when choosing your nickname. Some are clearly more proven winners than others.

College Football: Ten Predictions for 2008 That I Wish I Wasn't Making

James Doker — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 13:07:49 -0400

Everyone loves predictions.

Before the season starts, when every team has the same clean white slate, the prognosticators abound—and why shouldn't they? Half the fun of predictions is being blatantly optimistic towards your own team and overlooking any other less-than-pleasant possibilities.

If you're right, you get to show off to everyone that you called it first. If you're wrong—well, nobody but you will remember the predictions anyway. The hard part is separating what we want to happen from what we think will happen.

With that in mind, here are a list of ten predictions for 2008 that I wish I wasn't making. This way if I'm right I can gloat, and if I'm wrong I'll be too busy cheering to notice.

The following go against my hopes and dreams for 2008.

10. Last year's trend of weekly major upsets will end.

Last season, several different factors made for an exciting year full of almost weekly upsets in the top five. Most of the traditional title contenders had slight flaws or question marks, many non-traditional teams started hot, and a few early upsets forced shake-ups in the polls.

Oklahoma, Ohio State, Florida, and LSU had new starters at quarterback (some more experienced than others). Oregon, USC, and West Virginia each looked like legitimate national title contenders, but injuries to their starting QBs derailed their chances.

Cal, Boston College, South Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky each had no more than one loss at the midpoint of the season. All five were in the AP top 10 during week eight, and all but BC would fall out of the rankings within five weeks.

Those teams skyrocketed through the rankings because of top preseason teams' upsets. Once these early climbers reached the top and started losing, those losses were then considered upsets, even though the teams would later be proven overrated.

The flukey nature of all of those factors will not continue into 2008. From the first weekend, when Appalachian State bows out quietly at LSU, it will be clear that the heavy favorites from each conference won't slip up nearly as much as in 2007.

A few marquee match-ups between heavyweights, and some not-so-surprising upsets between ranked teams, will determine the pecking order in 2008.

For example:

9. Ohio State will beat Southern Cal in L.A.

Thanks to consistent recruiting, USC is once again going to have one of the nation's most talented rosters. And while OSU has reputation issues after two straight title-game debacles, those are about the only issues they have.

Each team's coaches are among the best in the game, so it's hard to pick an edge from that. Talent, likewise, is probably a wash. Experience, however, plays a much bigger role earlier in the season, and Ohio State has a decided edge there.

The key match-up is that OSU has arguably the best returning defense in the country, and USC is breaking in a new starter at quarterback. Look for Mark Sanchez to get knocked around and make some mistakes upon which the Buckeyes will capitalize.

The game will be close, but OSU will go home happy.

8. The Rose Bowl will again be a disappointing match-up.

It seems almost a foregone conclusion that the winner of the OSU-USC game will make it to the BCS Championship game. There's even the possibility that the loser could.

Either way, that leaves the Rose Bowl missing at least one of its conference champs for the tie-in, likely giving that conference's second-place team a berth (à la Illinois last season). Needless to say, a match-up like that won't get anyone's blood pumping, and TV ratings will once again be low.

On the off chance that both Ohio State and USC win their conferences but fail to make the BCS Championship game, the Rose Bowl would be a rematch of the two. Unless the first game is an instant classic, few people (certainly not the players) will want to see it replayed.

7. Notre Dame will get to a bowl game.

The 2007 season was a perfect storm of problems for Notre Dame. Losses of key players all over the field paired with a murderous schedule to do in the Domers.

As has been clearly documented, Notre Dame started an injured true freshman quarterback behind a green offensive line. Inexperience at skill positions cost them dearly.

The Irish have replaced a small senior class with a heralded crop of recruits, and their schedule is considerably easier in 2008. The young players from 2007 will be bigger, stronger, and more experienced.

Unfortunately, they're still led by Charlie Weis, whose best game was a close loss to USC in 2005. Opinions of the coach have crept back to earth since they reached dizzying heights after that game.

Still, the Fighting Irish should be able to overcome Weis and gain eligibility to a mid-range bowl game (which they will then, of course, lose).

6. Joe Paterno will retire, but Bobby Bowden will not.

All signs seemingly point to this being JoePa's last season in State College.

He's been battling Bobby Bowden for tops on the all-time major college wins list for several years now, and some people suspect the two friends to be waiting each other out. Paterno is only one win behind Bowden following the 2007 season.

It seems unlikely that either head coach would weigh the wins record more than other factors, especially since both men seem more than comfortable in their own skin. Both have dismissed the record as unimportant and not something they worry about.

Talk from around Penn State and its recruits is feeding rumors of impending retirement (as outlined by the Sunday Morning Quarterback). While JoePa has earned the right to stick around as long as he wants, mounting pressure may give him the nudge necessary to walk away under his own power.

The Nittany Lions are poised to have a better season than floundering Florida State, and Paterno will retire the winningest coach in major college history. Unfortunately, Bowden will coach at least one year longer, and re-take the top spot on the list.

5. The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will not be a matchup of unbeaten teams.

Many fans and pundits have tagged 2008's Florida-Georgia game as one of the season's biggest match-ups. Both teams are gracing the top five in preseason polls, and each has been ranked number one by at least two sources.

The meeting is November first, which means they'll have played a lot of games by the time they meet. While it's certainly possible that one team will come in unscathed, it's a good bet that they'll have at least one loss between them.

Each team seems to have two big tests before they meet. Florida heads up to Tennessee, where the Vols always play them tough, and hosts defending champ LSU in the Swamp.

Georgia travels to Arizona State in an exciting non-conference game and visits LSU a week before meeting the Gators. The Dawgs also have games against South Carolina, Alabama, and Tennessee before the showdown in Jacksonville.

The most likely loss is probably UGA at LSU, but Tennessee has a good chance against Florida, too.

Gators and Bulldogs fans can take solace in the fact that, even with a previous loss, a win here would vault them back into the SEC and national championship races.

4. Tim Tebow will not win the Heisman Trophy.

There are several reasons he won't win, but the biggest may just be the fact that he already won. Call it Tebow Fatigue.

The voters will be looking for any other deserving candidates, while the media will tire of endless spots about the quarterback. ESPN will be looking for new supermen to harp on all season long, so Tebow won't be the only superstar in the spotlight.

Moreover, it's unlikely that he'll have stats as unbelievable as the ones from last season. With a much stronger stable of running backs in spring star Chris Rainey, USC transfer Emmanuel Moody, and returning Kestahn Moore and Mon Williams, Tebow will have fewer chances to score on the ground.

Teammate Percy Harvin is likely to garner some votes of his own, taking away more support from Tebow. Because Heisman voting goes by region, Knowshon Moreno and even Matthew Stafford could keep the Southeast from going completely to Tebow.

One more good reason: Heisman Pundit says so.

3. There will be minimal BCS controversy.

The 1999, 2002, and 2005 seasons ended with exactly two undefeated major-conference teams. That's every three years, and 2005 was three years ago.

Simply noticing a pattern like that doesn't guarantee anything for the next season, but college football is a very cyclic sport by nature. Analysis of the past ten years shows that for every apocalypse-level BCS finish, there is a season that wraps itself up neatly with a bow.

The 2007 season, as explained in No. 10 above, was full of uncertainty about its best teams, but 2008 will be different. Each conference has one or two teams heavily favored as the clear frontrunner, and there are about five teams from which the national champion will almost certainly come.

Between those teams, there are a handful of elimination games that will help clearly define the rankings far better than in 2007.

Additionally, this season will end with one clear choice from outside the six power conferences. If it's BYU, as so many predict, they might not even be the last-picked team for a BCS bowl thanks to their hefty fan base.

Most notably from the BCS world, though is that...

2. There will be two major undefeated teams at the end of the season.

Taking a look at which conferences are likely to have champions without a loss narrows things down quickly.

Either Ohio State or Southern Cal pick up an L, thanks to their early-season encounter. It's a pretty safe bet they'll win their respective conferences, so that rules out one conference champ right there.

Few would predict an undefeated team from the ACC or Big East in what is perceived as a down year for each. West Virginia and Clemson seem the most likely picks to win, but both have plenty of question marks and enough challengers that they'll each almost certainly pick up a setback along the way.

That leaves the SEC and Big 12. The overly simple statement that "the SEC is so tough that any team can beat any other team at any time" can easily be applied to the Big 12 as well.

The two conferences seem to stack up pretty similarly, particularly at the top. Oklahoma and Missouri are garnering attention similar to that of Florida and Georgia, and each conference has a few quality sleepers lurking just behind the front-runners.

Florida and Georgia both have formidable schedules, including their armageddon in Jacksonville, so finishing undefeated would seem considerably harder for either of them. The best bet for an undefeated team is Oklahoma, on the assumption that Texas will take a step back and Texas Tech will fail to take a step forward.

Many people forget that the Sooners finished with as good an argument as Georgia and USC for inclusion in the BCS Championship. Though they dropped the ball in the Fiesta Bowl, they return an amazing amount of talent from last season.

Those hoping that the BCS will move closer to demolition thanks to yet another messy finish will be sorely disappointed—even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Two undefeated title participants leads us to the final undesirable conclusion:

1. Ohio State will play in the BCS Championship Game for the third straight year (but an SEC team will not).

Not only is this squad Jim Tressel's best yet, they won't have to play against a team from that conference down south this time.

Oklahoma will run the table in the Big 12 and be the last hurdle to OSU's eventual championship. The match-up will pit two coaches with eerily similar records against each other in a game of two teams looking to end losing streaks in BCS games.

The Buckeyes will silence critics from all around the country (except of course the SEC) and dispel the demons of the last two BCS title games.

So there you have them, ten predictions for 2008. Here's hoping I'm wrong.