Bleacher Report - Articles by Adnan Tezer

NFL: Liver's Week 12 Picks

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:50:14 -0500

As last week showed, it only gets tougher to pick these damn games as the season goes along. Despite being 3—7 through the Thursday night and Sunday morning games, the Liver rebounded nicely to win the last six games including the Sunday (thank you Jay Cutler) and Monday night game (thank you Kris Brown) to finish a respectable but not great (by this year’s standards) 9—7 for the week.

Anyone that had Kansas City beating Pittsburgh has my eternal respect but I don’t think there were too many of you.

Hopefully the Liver gets his Ace Rothstein groove back this weekend.

F.Y.I. For those who haven’t seen the ESPN Sunday NFL Countdown commercial with Snoop Dogg and Mike Ditka; check it out on YouTube. CLASSIC .

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record—9—7

2009 record against the spread—100—59—1 (.625)

Sunday, November 29

Washington at Philadelphia (—9)

I have to admit it; Jason Campbell is not a bad QB. The offense just can’t score points. When you’re missing key players like Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley that’s to be expected. I hate taking Filthy laying this many points with Andy Reid lurking the sidelines ready to call a bad timeout or throw a blatantly idiotic challenge flag when it comes down to the last three minutes of the game but the Redskins just can’t score enough points. Pick—Filthy

Tampa Bay at Atlanta ( —12)

Atlanta’s season is pretty much done after last week. Tampa Bay looked like the Tampa Bay from earlier in the year against the Saints last week. Still, that’s a lot to lay on this Falcons team right now. Pick—Tampa Bay

Miami at Buffalo (+3)

Ricky Williams looked like he was back in Austin running for the Longhorns last Thursday night against the Panthers. Losing Ronnie Brown will still cost this team but not today. Pick—Miami

Carolina at N.Y. Jets (—3)

The Jets are awful right now and the Panthers, although they regressed against the Dolphins, are coming in off of 10 days rest. How are the Jets going to stop the Panthers running game? Pick—Carolina

Indianapolis at Houston (+3 ½)

Poor Houston. How many game have they blown this season? Indy continues to win by the skin of Peyton Manning’s teeth despite their secondary issues. I picked them to lose last week and I’m picking them to lose this week. This is the only early game worth a watching by the way. Pick—Houston

Seattle at St. Louis (+3)

Great…another NFC West game. What a thrilling contest this one should be. No Marc Bulger for St. Louis means Kyle Boller? Oh no. Then again that offense is one—dimensional anyway. All you have to do is hand the ball off to Steven Jackson and try to make a hole for him. Pick—St. Louis

Cleveland at Cincinnati (—14)

The Browns explode for 37 and STILL can’t win? The Bengals will wipe away the vomit in their mouth from the give—away loss against the Raiders last week. If they can’t wipe the field with these Browns, then they have a problem. Pick—Cincinnati

Chicago at Minnesota (—10 ½)

Jay Cutler is overthrowing WIDE OPEN RECEIVERS . Why is it that guy has the permanent facial expression of a five—star career drunkard? Pick—Minnesota

Arizona at Tennessee (—3)

Who’s betting against the Titans and Vince Young right now? Kurt Warner is iffy with his concussion problems, which means that Matt Leinart could see some playing time. I think I’m going to refer to the 2009 NFL season as “The Year of the Concussion” what with all the players getting knocked out and the talk about concussion education. Try saying “concussion education” five times fast. Pick—Tennessee

Jacksonville at San Francisco (—3 ½)

That’s too high a line for this 49’rs team. Jacksonville is the better team with the better running game right now. Alex Smith is great at throwing touchdowns WHEN THE GAME IS OVER AND ALL IT DOES IS F*** WITH THE LIVER TAKING THE PACKERS LAYING SIX AND A HALF . Too bad he can’t do that when the game is in the first half. Pick—Jacksonville

Kansas City at San Diego (-14)

Kansas City has a TWO GAME WINNING STREAK? It won’t get to three against a rolling Chargers team but they’ve been improving as the season has gone on. Pick: Kansas City

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+3)

The Liver’s roommate Chris, a Steelers fan, had this to say after the overtime loss in Arrowhead; “You know how you like to throw things at the T.V. and f**k up the apartment when you watch Cowboys games? That’s how I feel about this Steelers team. They’re not making the playoffs. And Mike Tomlin is just another George Seifert.” I know I sound like a broken record here but Roethlisberger is questionable with concussion problems. Think the Ravens defense will be looking to knock him around if he plays? I know Baltimore hasn’t beaten a good team this year, expect for MAYBE the Broncos, but I just don’t trust this Steelers team right now. Pick: Baltimore

Monday, November 30

New England at New Orleans (-3)

You don’t think the Pats are going into this looking to end the Saints perfect season? New Orleans has been more or less slumming the last MONTH and will have to play UP to their competition here. That crowd should be a huge factor here though and New Orleans has one of the best home field advantages in football. Pick: New England

Liver's NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Picks

Adnan Tezer — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 23:17:56 -0500

Thanksgiving Day games are notoriously tough to pick because of the short week. Plus, none of these games looks very interesting on paper. Still, what else are you going to do on Thanksgiving besides drink, eat, and watch football? Sex, anyone?

Here’s to an Aggie slaughter at the hands of the Liver’s beloved Longhorns today. Then, it’s the Big 12 title game against Nebraska, and a national championship matchup in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 7 against the winner of the SEC Championship game. At least one of my football teams is a championship contender.

Happy Thanksgiving all; drink, eat, and love your neighbor 'til it hurts. Excuse me while I go watch Casino right now.

Of course, it goes without saying that the following picks against the spread are for recreational use only . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 9-7

2009 record against the spread: 100-59-1 (.625)

Thursday, Nov. 26

Green Bay at Detroit (+10½)

Green Bay has gotten back into the mix for the NFC Wild Card the last two weeks, and shouldn’t get tripped up here. The Lions enjoyed a rare win in a wild finish to their game with the Browns but, in true Lions fashion, even in a win they lose. Stafford is highly unlikely to play after suffering the dislocated left shoulder at the end of the game, and Calvin Johnson is also banged up.

Stafford's injury means Daunte Culpepper will likely be taking the snaps for Detroit. Anyone that actually watches this game as opposed to just having it on in the background as they cook, drink, and socialize has to be either a Green Bay or Detroit fan, or a gambling junkie like the Liver.

Then again, maybe you just don’t like your relatives and in-laws, so you revert to give-up mode, eat and drink heavily while pretending you care about this pointless game as a means of avoiding them.

Did I mention that I had degrees in psychology and sociology? Think Roger Goodell wishes the Lions would forfeit their Thanksgiving Day spot?

Pick: Green Bay

Oakland at Dallas (-13½)

Looks like a slightly different Raiders team with Bruce Gradkowski in at QB. Then again, anyone is an upgrade over JaMarcus Russell.

It was ugly to be sure, but the Cowboys got the win against the Redskins with just one good offensive drive. The Dallas offense is having serious issues right now while the defense has been the only constant with the team since early in the season.

I thought running the ball might be the answer for the Cowboys, but even that couldn’t generate points. It just seems like several key offensive players—Tony Romo, Marion Barber, and Felix Jones—are banged up and not playing anywhere near what they should be.

This is typically where the Dallas Cowboys of the past few years have peaked, unfortunately, and this is another game that could go either way.

The Cowboys could blow the Raiders away, or the Raiders, who have some confidence right now, could make this a game. Then again, maybe the Raiders are so satisfied at winning against Cincinnati that they just mail it in Thursday after having to travel on a short week.

Sooner or later, the Cowboys offense is going to get back to scoring points right? And it’s the F-ing Raiders! How the hell is it possible that the Cowboys are favored by nearly the exact number of points that the offense has scored the last two weeks combined ? And, why the hell am I laying it? Only God can protect my TV, my remote, and my sliding glass door if Dallas blows this.

Pick: Dallas

NY Giants at Denver (+7)

Denver is in free-fall right now. Either its offense is turning the ball over, or its defense is getting gashed against the run. It's difficult to play on a short week, especially for the road team, but this Broncos team is imploding right before our eyes.

Of course, the Giants had to go to overtime to beat a lackluster Falcons team, and had to travel to Denver. Never underestimate the wear and tear for the road teams in these Thanksgiving games.

This Broncos team has to show some heart at home doesn’t it? As long as Chris Simms is nowhere near that field…

Pick: Denver

Liver's 2009 NFL Week 11 Picks

Adnan Tezer — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:18:57 -0500

I’m still in disbelief over Sunday night. DISBELIEF . Call it happy disbelief though.

Seeing the great Bill Beliprick make mistake after mistake at the end of the fourth quarter, whether it was poor timeout management or the soon-to-be infamous going for it on fourth and two, was GLORIOUS .

Great call, Belichick. Just goes to show you that sometimes, bad things do happen to assholes.

Way to boost the confidence of your defense too. I’m sure they felt empowered by your lack of faith in them. Even Darth Vader finds your lack of faith disturbing.

Some defensive guru he is. The last three years, his defense has blown it at the most crucial moments, whether it was the 2007 AFC Championship Game or Super Bowl XLII. Couldn’t have happened to a better guy.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 10-5

2009 record against the spread: 91-52-1 (.632)

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8 ½)

I think Dick Jauron got off easy. He might have had to stick around for this game and watch Maurice Jones-Drew run all over his team.

Jacksonville can’t afford to blow this if they hope to move up the wild card chain in the AFC. That's a LOT of points to lay on the Jags though. Pick: Buffalo

Indianapolis at Baltimore (+1 ½)

I must have walked away from that Colts/Pats game at least three times in the second half to smoke a cigarette thinking “It’s over. There’s no way the Colts come back and win. Not unless the Patriots completely melt down and choke it away. And that never happens with the Patriots.”

I guess I forgot the 2007 AFC Championship game and the fact that Peyton Manning has a hard-on for night games.

I’m not quite sure if the better team won, strangely enough. The Colts CLEARLY have secondary issues, as the Patriots offense showed.

Joe Flacco has the ability to expose it. The crowd should be fired up as few if any have forgotten about the Colts leaving Baltimore like thieves in the night. The Colts have to lose some time right? I think the Ravens get the job done here. Pick: Baltimore

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-6 ½)

Both of these teams come in desperate for a win. The Giants, despite having a bye week, stayed in the NFC East race with both the Eagles and Cowboys losing last week.

Atlanta has been a huge disappointment so far with Matt Ryan having a serious case of the sophomore slump. Michael Turner’s status for this game is very doubtful with a sprained ankle.

That’s a shame for the Falcons, because he had just regained his 2008 form before suffering the injury last weekend. If Ryan can attack a still banged up Giants secondary, the Falcons can hang around but they would have to play error free, something they’ve been unable to do recently.

As bad as the Giants looked before the bye, it’s hard to see them losing a fifth straight game. Whoever loses here can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. Pick: New York

Washington at Dallas (-11)

I’m going to try and NOT be a knee-jerk Cowboys fan BUT , after the debacle in Lambeau, this game just became a lot more important for Dallas as they begin their Thanksgiving week of two games in five days.

The Redskins raised some eyebrows in beating a fading Broncos team but should expect a better Dallas team then the one that nearly got shut out against Green Bay last Sunday.

The Cowboys suffered some key injuries last week in the loss as right tackle Marc Colombo is likely out for the season and safety Ken Hamlin is out for two to four weeks.

Can Roy Williams be any more useless than what he’s shown so far? He looks like he’s confused every time a ball goes his way. Great trade there, Jerry.

Felix Jones CLEARLY has not recovered from his early season injury and needs to be featured more. Then again, when you rush the ball only 14 times, no running back is going to look good. Another great Jason Garrett moment in the sun.

Cowboys/Redskins may not have the luster it once had, but it’s still one of the great blood hatred rivalries in the NFL.

If the Cowboys can expose the weak offensive line of the Redskins and keep Ladell Betts in check they should have an easy time here. Then again, this is the Dallas Cowboys and nothing is what it seems. Pick: Washington

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+10)

With Cincinnati in the driver’s seat in the AFC North, the Steelers have to win games like this in order to claim a wild card spot. This shouldn’t be a problem for them, even with Polamalu and his troublesome left knee likely out for this one. Pick: Pittsburgh

Cleveland at Detroit (-3 ½)

If nobody cares or comes to watch, do they still have to play the game? Maybe LeBron could help the Browns out. They couldn’t be any worse. Pick: Detroit

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+11)
I know New Orleans is 9-0 but when you have to struggle the way they did to beat the Rams, something’s amiss.

Yet, they’ve shown that they can screw around for three quarters and still win. Tampa Bay is at least competitive with Josh Freeman in there, which is an improvement for them. Pick: Tampa Bay

San Francisco at Green Bay (-6 ½)

Green Bay is alive for now in the NFC wild card race as their shutdown of the Cowboys offense demonstrated last week.

San Francisco’s unimpressive win last Thursday did nothing to sway my feelings about their offense. If Green Bay can do HALF of what they did to a superior Dallas offense, they could crush the 49ers here.

Then again, San Francisco has a coach who actually inspires his players, unlike Dallas. If they had a consistent pass rush, they could knock Aaron Rodgers around a little.

On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers is so bad at taking unnecessary sacks that even YOU could probably get a piece of him. Pick: Green Bay

Seattle at Minnesota (-10 ½)

You’d think that Minnesota could win this on cruise control, but the Seahawks have shown heart despite their poor record and can put up some points.

This was one of the toughest games to pick this weekend, but I see the Minnesota pass rush just beating the hell out of Matt Hasselbeck.

Then you have the fact that the Minnesota defense is prone to taking fourth quarters off and you could go the other way. Tough decision. Pick: Minnesota

Arizona at St. Louis (+9)

Arizona is on the road, correct? Then they should have no problem here, right? Maybe not as the Rams gave the Saints all they could handle and Steven Jackson is admirably giving it his all despite his efforts being wasted on a bad team.

St. Louis isn't the sorry piece of shit we saw earlier in the year. They're still a bad team but at least they've shown signs of improving. Pick: St. Louis

San Diego at Denver (+3)

What a difference a month makes. Denver was on top of the world and San Diego was crumbling. You can reverse that now.

Granted, the Chargers haven’t been exactly beating what anyone would call great teams but they’re winning and that offense is nearly impossible to stop through the air.

Didn’t think this Broncos team would fade like last year’s, but it’s happening and San Diego can take control of the AFC West with the win here.

If the Chargers can run the ball, they can take advantage of a sagging Broncos run defense that has given up at least 120 yards on the ground in each of their three losses coming into this game.

Kyle Orton’s status is still questionable, which means that Chris Simms would be starting if he can’t go. Simply put, if Chris Simms starts for Denver, the Chargers have already won.

That's coming from a Longhorn who's seen what Chris Simms does to important football games up close. Pick: San Diego

Cincinnati at Oakland (+9 ½)

Mark it down; the Bengals are for real in the AFC. I thought they’d be in the game but I didn’t think they could shut down the Steelers in the red zone like they did.

The question is: can they avoid the classic let down game here against a clearly inferior opponent? That win over the Steelers was the biggest win that franchise has had in years. It’s natural to take a team like the Raiders for granted.

You would think if that defense could put pressure on Big Ben last week, they should be able to destroy Bruce Gradkowski who’ll be starting for Oakland.

With Cedric Benson and his injured hip flexor doubtful, I wonder how well the Bengals will be able to run the ball, which has been the key ingredient to their offensive success.

I don’t think Oakland wins, but for some reason I see them hanging around. This was the other tough game of the week for me to pick. Pick: Oakland

N.Y. Jets at New England (-10 ½)

I’m sure the Jets wished the Patriots had salted that game away last Sunday night because they’re going to get a SUPREMELY PISSED OFF Patriots team not only looking to wash away that loss to the Colts but to avenge the earlier loss to the Jets way back in Week 2 when the Jets and Rex Ryan were puffing out their chests.

If the Patriots were laying 20 here, I’d take it. Maybe that hot dog Sanchez ate at Oakland four weeks ago took away his Sanchize powers.

Look for Rex Ryan to REALLY cry on the sideline as this game progresses. I see a Belichick run-up-the-score special here. Pick: New England

Philadelphia at Chicago (+3)

Another game with two disappointing teams needing a win. Jay Cutler is so much fun to hate, it’s almost unfair. I’m sure most of teammates echo that hatred right now.

Next to Mike Vick’s return, has there been a bigger bag of nothing then Jay Cutler and the Bears this season? Jake Delhomme LAUGHS at Jay Cutler. Look for the Chicago fans to be booing early and often in this game.

Last week might have marked the end of Brian Westbrook’s career. If he cares about functioning properly later in life, he’ll retire. The Eagles have to find their running game without him. Pick: Filthy

Monday, Nov. 23

Tennessee at Houston (-4 ½)
As a Longhorn, I couldn't be happier for Vince Young right now. The Titans look like a completely different team and they’re 3-0 with him starting after the 0-6 start with Kerry Collins.

That should take care of the “Should the Titans resign him in the off season?” question. That being said, this is going to be a tough one for them, especially the secondary, as they go up against a rested Texans team that just scores points.

Then again, the Texans will have a hard time slowing down Chris Johnson. Tennessee is 5-2 at Houston and this game might feature another hand gesture to the Houston fans by one-time Houston Oilers owner Bud Adams. Pick: Tennessee

Liver's 2009 NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Pick

Adnan Tezer — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:17:33 -0500

At least this should be a better game then last Thursday’s 10-6 dud between the 49ers and Bears.

Of course it goes without saying that the following pick AGAINST THE SPREAD is for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's pick.

Last week’s record: 10-5

2009 record against the spread: 91-52-1 (.632)

Thursday, November 19

Miami at Carolina (-3)
Carolina looks like a different team compared to the one that started out 0-3 with Jake Delhomme throwing picks coming off the team bus. Despite both being questionable for the game, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have found their ground game after a slow start. Unfortunately for Miami, their leading rusher, and wild cat instigator, Ronnie Brown is out for the rest of the season with a right foot injury. That means A LOT of Ricky Williams for the Dolphins in this game. Both teams should have beaten New Orleans in their respective games and are very similar right now in regards to their rushing attack. Carolina, however, has found their air attack of late. Miami has won only once on the road this year and is not good having to play from behind. Pick: Carolina

Liver's 2009 NFL Week Ten Picks

Adnan Tezer — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:48:14 -0500

Just to let all of my faithful constituents know; the Liver picks for the rest of the season will be coming in either late Fridays, or early Saturdays. The picks have been good this year, but even the Liver needs a third job in this shitty California economy.

I suppose I can KIND OF understand where the NFL got off fining Ochocinco for his attempted "bribe" of an official with a $1 bill over the weekend, but $20,000? And Tommie Harris only gets fined $7,500 for punching Cardinals offensive lineman Deuce Lutui last weekend? Great double standard there Roger Goodell and Ray Anderson.

Of course, it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 10-3

2009 record against the spread: 81-47-1 (.627)

Sunday, November 15

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (minus-7)

Yes, the Steelers looked dominant against a Broncos team that we can all say now has been exposed by bullish defenses that smack them around, and jam their receivers while laying back and saying, “Please throw on us Kyle Orton.” This Bengals team also beat the Steelers earlier in the season. Yes, I know there was no Troy Polamalu, and he clearly makes a difference on that defense.

Bengals win this game, and they are in total control of the AFC North, and 4-0 against the Steelers and Ravens. If the Cedric Benson that’s shown up this season continues his play here, the Bengals will be in position to win, granted they don’t play into the hands of this Steelers defense.

Hard to bet against the Steelers winning a game like this at home, but I think the Bengals keep this one under the seven. Meanwhile, watch as Ochocinco whips out a rare $2 bill while blowing his nose on the sideline, and gets fined $40,000 next week.

Pick: Cincinnati

Denver at Washington (plus-3.5)

The love affair is over for Denver, as has been demonstrated over the last two weeks. Punch them in the mouth and dare Kyle Orton to throw on you. And the Cowboys lost to THAT TEAM ? Meanwhile, Washington’s season goes from bad to worse as Redskins fans demand Daniel Snyder’s head on a stick.

Pick: Denver

Buffalo at Tennessee (minus-7)

Not a pretty game to watch, but Vince Young is back and that means the Titans are competitive and more often then not, will have a chance to win. He doesn’t have great numbers, but he wins more then he loses.

Pick: Tennessee

Atlanta at Carolina (plus-1.5)

Carolina has been running the ball well, yet still pissed away a win against the Saints last weekend. If Jake Delhomme can take care of the ball, they can put a scare into some teams. Atlanta needs to get on a win streak if they hope to get a wild card spot. Michael Turner needs to keep running the ball well for Matt Ryan to cut down on his picks.

Pick: Atlanta

Detroit at Minnesota (minus-16.5)

Damn that’s a lot of points, but have you seen Matt Stafford lately?

Pick: Minnesota

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (minus-7)

So Jacksonville is 4-4? Go figure. The Jets come off their bye and need to get back to their early season form when their defense was mauling people. That defense, however, is beat up, and may have peaked a little early.

Pick: Jacksonville

Tampa Bay at Miami (minus-9.5)

Thank you very F***ING much Tampa for ruining my weekend. True, I only lost three games last weekend, but that Tampa Bay/Green Bay game was a lock dammit! Now I suppose we should call him the great Josh Freeman?

Miami played well against the Patriots, but lost to the better team. They’re not a bad team despite the 3-5 record. Bottom line is, Miami runs the ball extremely well and Tampa Bay couldn’t stop (insert name of any dead relative, or celebrity you like here).

Pick: Miami

New Orleans at St. Louis (plus-13.5)

Just what I love to see; another insanely high line. Just call me Mr. Chalk this weekend.

Pick: New Orleans

Kansas City at Oakland (minus-2)

Not even the fans of these teams want to watch this crap. And Oakland is favored? This could quite possibly the worst game played in the NFL this season until Week 16 when Oakland plays Cleveland.

When describing how I felt about picking the Thursday night “thriller” between Chicago and San Francisco, I used the words of Sheriff Kimbel in Young Guns II when asked to go after Billy the Kid, "I'd rather drink turpentine and piss on a brushfire.” It goes DOUBLE here. I HATE PICKING THIS GAME .

Pick: Kansas City

Philadelphia at San Diego (minus-1)

After last week’s Sunday night game, I think Andy Reid made Wade Phillips look like a Rhodes Scholar when it came to clock management and challenges. Now I know why so many Filthy fans are convinced they’ll never win a Super Bowl with him as head coach. San Diego can score with anyone in the league right now, and their defense made some key stops last week against the Giants.

Pick: San Diego

Dallas at Green Bay (plus-3)

This is an excellent opportunity, as is the rest of the month for the Cowboys to put some real distance between them, and the Eagles in the NFC East race. This is the season for the Packers. I just don’t think they are a good team, which last week’s loss to Tampa Bay made painfully clear. Their offensive line sucks, Aaron Rodgers gives up too many bad sacks, and their defense can’t contain anyone good. Aaron Kampman is also probably out with a concussion. There’s simply no excuse for the Cowboys not to be 9-2 at the end of this month with Washington and Oakland waiting.

Pick: Dallas

Seattle at Arizona (minus-9)

Why is it Arizona plays better on the road then at home? If they can’t beat this sad sack of a Seattle team, they don’t deserve to win that shitty NFC West division. Wait a minute; come to think of it, NO ONE DESERVES TO WIN THAT SHITTY DIVISION .

Pick: Arizona

New England at Indianapolis (-3)

Yeah, this might be an important game to watch. Outside of Steelers-Bengals, this is the game to watch this Sunday. The best test for either of these teams so far this year with the winner likely rolling to the AFC Championship. I just think the Patriots are the healthier, better team right now.

The Colts are banged up, especially in the secondary, and it showed against the Texans last week. If any team is going to exploit their injuries, it has to be the Patriots. Then again, Peyton Manning doesn’t lose often in night games. Another tough call here.

Pick: New England

Monday, November 16

Baltimore at Cleveland (+10 ½)

Couldn’t ESPN rerun an old NFL Draft instead of this? They might actually get some people to watch. I think it’s safe to say that this Browns team has completely revolted against Eric Mangini, AND HE’S HALFWAY THROUGH HIS FIRST SEASON . Anyone want to take odds he’s fired after the Browns season finale? God I can't wait for that Oakland/Cleveland thriller in Week 16.

Pick: Baltimore

Liver's 2009 NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Pick

Adnan Tezer — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:21:31 -0500

I think I just fell in love with Elizabeth Lambert over the weekend. Any girl that can play dirty like that is welcome to hang out with The Liver ANY TIME .

Of course, it goes without saying that the following pick AGAINST THE SPREAD is for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY .

Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's pick.

Last week’s record: 10-3

2009 record against the spread: 81-47-1 (.627)

Thursday, Nov. 12

Chicago at San Francisco (-3)

It still feels too early for this, but...welcome to Thursday Night Football! And you get...two teams that are fading early that need a win badly. Unfortunately ALL of the Thursday night games this season SUCK HARD .

San Francisco has lost four straight while Chicago comes in off another blowout loss, this time at the hands of Arizona. Neither one of these teams is very good right now, although Chicago was actually expected to at least be a playoff contender.

The Bears might have a shot IF they could get their dormant running game going, but that’s been nonexistent thanks to Matt Forte’s inability to duplicate what he did his rookie year and the offensive line not providing enough holes. Glad to see that money the Bears threw at Jay Cutler is paying off.

San Francisco at least plays with some heart, something the Bears have been lacking all year.

My thoughts of picking this game echo those of Sheriff Kimbel in Young Guns II when asked to go after Billy the Kid: "I'd rather drink turpentine and piss on a brushfire." But I HAVE to pick one of these dogs, as people's mortgages are riding on these picks, so...

Pick: San Francisco

Liver's 2009 NFL Week Nine Picks

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:12:28 -0500

Why is it that most of life’s problems CAN be solved with money?

If you’re having emotional problems, you can afford therapy. If you’re having romantic problems, you can rent a hooker.

If you’re having physical problems, you hire a trainer and get in shape.

If I EVER meet the asshole that said, “Money can’t buy happiness,” I’m gonna break my empty bottle of Glenlivet over his throat.

Then again, if you’re a gambling junkie AND you have money, you can always afford ONE more game.

Speaking of hookers, Dallas police said this week that they expect the number of prostitutes in the region to sharply rise for this February's NBA All-Star game and again for the 2011 Super Bowl XLV, both of which will be held at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. Whatever helps the economy, I say.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY .

Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 9-4

2009 record against the spread: 71-44-1 (.612)

Sunday, November 8

Washington at Atlanta (-10)
Expect Atlanta to break their two-game skid against this poor excuse of a Redskins team and reestablish themselves in the NFC wild card hunt. I see this being a thorough destruction by an angry Falcons team. Pick: Atlanta

Arizona at Chicago (-3)
Can you think of two more inconsistent teams in the NFC that play great one week then look terrible the next? Chicago comes off an easy win against the Browns. What win against the Browns isn’t?

Meanwhile, Arizona is coming off an ugly loss to a bad Carolina team that saw Kurt Warner throw five picks. Whichever team can establish a run game here probably wins. Arizona has actually played better on the road (3-0) then at home (1-3) this year. Pick: Arizona

Baltimore at Cincinnati (+3)
The time is now for the Bengals who are coming off a bye. They can put a stranglehold on the AFC North with wins against division rivals Baltimore this weekend and then the Steelers next week.

Wins over both would give them season sweeps over both teams and give them tie-breaker edges as well. Baltimore comes off a dominating win over Denver and needs this game in order to stay close to the Bengals and Steelers.

If Cedric Benson can duplicate what he did to the Ravens defense in their earlier meeting back in Week 5, the Bengals should be in good shape.

The Ravens should be confident going into this game but Cincinnati GETTING points at home seems too good to pass up. Pick: Cincinnati

Kansas City at Jacksonville (-7)
This should be a superb waste of time. Kansas City is awful and Jacksonville is mediocre at best.

Maybe Jack Del Rio should put another tree trunk and axe in the Jags locker room. Then again, it didn’t help much last season.

Matt Cassel might have some time to throw on the Jags shaky pass rush. Pick: Kansas City

Miami at New England (-10½)
With the Jets and Bills floundering right now, this is an excellent chance for the Dolphins to get back into the AFC wild card race. The Wild Cat was brought out against the Patriots early last season and has been hard to stop since.

It’s tough not to go with the Patriots after a bye though. Still, I see Miami keeping SOMEWHAT close here. Pick: Miami

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (+10)
Tampa Bay is now the worst team in the NFL as the Rams got their first and, most likely, only victory against the Lions last week. There will be some interest in how rookie QB Josh Freeman performs in his first start for the Bucs.

Meanwhile, the Packers can only play for the wild card after officially being knocked out of the NFC North last week by the Vikings. That pass protection for Aaron Rodgers is an insult and he could start showing signs of the weekly beatings he takes before long.

Still, he has played his best against the worst teams on the Packers schedule. Add the rookie QB starting his first game and I gotta lay these points. Pick: Green Bay

Houston at Indianapolis (-9)
If Houston is to be taken seriously, they have to win this game otherwise the AFC South crown will belong to the Colts.

The Texans, however, have only beaten the Colts once in franchise history having lost 13 of 14 all-time match-ups to their divisional rival. With Owen Daniels out, expect the Colts to zero in on Andre Johnson and not allow him to beat them on the corners.

November just might be the toughest month of the season for the 2009 Colts where they have two games against the Texans in three weeks. This just might be the biggest game in the history of the Texans.

The Colts defense is slowly starting to resemble the M.A.S.H. unit that is the Giants defense and sooner or later, they’re gonna get exposed. I like Houston here to make this a game. Pick: Houston

Detroit at Seattle (-10)
Seattle is pretty banged up but a Lions team coming to visit should help them feel better for this week anyway. The Lions took a step backward last week in that pathetic showing against the Rams.

I know laying 10 on Seattle sounds like a lot but this is still the Lions and the Seahawks actually play like a team with a pulse at home. Pick: Seattle

Carolina at New Orleans (-14 ½)
This could easily be a trap game for the Saints but I think they’re focused enough not to go to sleep on this bad Panthers team with Jake Delhomme and his walking turnover bit.

I know the Panthers played well last week but that wasn’t against what is looking to be the best team in football right now. Still for some reason…Pick: Carolina

San Diego at N.Y. Giants (-5)
Talk about two teams that need a win badly. The 5-0 start for the Giants seems like another year ago now. Their injured secondary has been getting lit up the last three weeks and the pass rush has been ineffective to put it mildly.

Eli Manning has also looked bad the last three weeks and one has to wonder whether that foot and heel is more of a problem for him then he’s admitting.

Phillip Rivers is exactly the QB that the Giants don’t want to see right now. He could make it four weeks in a row of beat downs for that secondary. The Giants do still have a great running game and that should be what keeps them in the game.

The Chargers can’t run the ball, but it might not even matter here if they can keep the Giants secondary on their heels. Pick: San Diego

Tennessee at San Francisco (-4)
Not so bad for Vince Young last week? The Titans recipe for success will always be the running game and Vince Young can at least keep defenses scrambling with his athletic ability.

The 49’ers had that game in Indianapolis but let it slip away in the fourth quarter. They should prove to be a much better opponent than what the Titans faced last week but their offense could be hindered by the loss of left tackle Joe Staley for six weeks. Pick: San Francisco

Dallas at Philadelphia (-3)

Dallas and Filthy both come in at 5-2 and atop the NFC East with the Giants sliding back the last three weeks. Dallas has looked strong during their three game win streak but Filthy is a notoriously tough place for the Cowboys to play in. Also, their wins have come against Kansas City, Atlanta and Seattle.

The only good team you take from that mix is Atlanta and they are clearly having problems right now. If Filthy can duplicate the pass rush they sent out against Eli Manning last week, Tony Romo might be in for a long night.

He has been great over the last three weeks at limiting his turnovers and will need to continue his strong play here if the Cowboys are to pull off the road win. Dallas’ shaky secondary could see some problems in the form of Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson.

If LeSean McCoy’s flu keeps him out of the game, the Cowboys should be able to control a running game that would feature Brian Westbrook coming off a concussion.

That, combined with their dominance in the run game with their three-headed attack should keep the blitz-happy Filthy defense on the field for long drives. Turnovers will also be a factor here as the Eagles are plus-12 in turnover ratio. The Cowboys are minus-1.

Football becomes a lot easier when you’re creating turnovers. Bottom line is that this is still one of the most hostile places for the Cowboys to play at and Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have pretty much owned the Cowboys during their reign at Filthy. I hope I’m wrong but…Pick: Filthy

Monday, November 9

Pittsburgh at Denver (+3)
Pittsburgh comes in rested off a bye and riding a four game win streak. The Broncos tasted defeat for the first time last week against Baltimore and were dominated. It doesn’t get easier for them here.

The Ravens might have exposed the Broncos defense when it comes to out-muscling them. You’d expect the hard hitting Steelers defense to follow along with that trend.

This is a huge test for this young Broncos team and Josh McDaniels as we see how they deal with their first adversity of the season. I just think that the Steelers are starting to roll right now. Pick: Pittsburgh

Liver's 2009 NFL Week 8 Picks

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 20:35:11 -0400

It’s a shame that Tim Donaghy’s book isn’t going to be published, but that shouldn’t stop you from seeking out leaked excerpts on the web.

I guess David Stern should be glad that, for now, the vast public won’t get to read about how NBA refs let personal vendettas against players, coaches and owners affect how they call games and how they deliberately give preference to teams that they perceive that the league wants to see win.

I said it before and I’ll say it again; the NBA refs have ruined, along with the constant tweaking of the rules, what once was the greatest game in America. Hope you’re enjoying yourself Stern because your league and its product are a joke.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 6-6-1

2009 record against the spread: 62-40-1 (.602)

Sunday, November 1

Cleveland at Chicago (-13 ½)
What the hell was that against Cincinnati? The Bears were dominated in every facet of the game and were never even remotely in it. Jay Cutler is a walking turnover right now and Matt Forte hasn’t had a decent game on the ground yet. That would be too many points to lay on them right now if it WASN’T Cleveland they were playing. Pick: Chicago

Seattle at Dallas (-9 ½)
The Cowboys had their first complete game of the season last week as they showed that they can beat a good team by knocking out the Falcons. The defense was hungry, Romo didn’t turn the ball over, and Miles Austin had his second-straight monster game. This is a game that they should win easily as they go up against an injury riddled Seahawks team that has been awful on the road. No Walter Jones means the newly minted $78 million DeMarcus Ware should run rampant in the Seahawks backfield and knock Matt Hasselbeck around. The Cowboys have shown, unfortunately, that they can be their own worst enemy with careless penalties. If the Cowboys can carry over their momentum, they can make quick work of Seattle. Pick: Dallas

Houston at Buffalo (+3 ½)
Houston has shown some signs of the team that many predicted would be a wild card team. If this is the year for them to make the postseason for the first time in team history, they have to beat a hapless Bills team on offense that will start Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for the second straight week. The Bills have won two in a row but one of those was against an inept Jets team that gave the game away and the other was against a bad Carolina team that turns the ball over too much. With a win, the Texans would be 5-3 for the first time in team history. Pick: Houston

Denver at Baltimore (-3 ½)
Both teams come off a bye. Denver is the shock of the league right now at 6-0 and should be ready for a tough road test against a Ravens team that has lost three straight and is reeling. Amazingly the problem for the Ravens lately has been its defense not the offense. With Pittsburgh and Cincinnati battling it out for the AFC North title, the Ravens can’t afford a fourth straight loss or their wild card hopes could be in jeopardy. For some reason, I see the Broncos getting their first loss of the season here. Pick: Baltimore

Miami at N.Y. Jets (-3 ½)
The Jets had an easy win over Oakland last weekend to end its three-game skid and look to redeem themselves against Miami for their prior Monday night loss. The Dolphins could still have the loss against the Saints on their mind after they seemed to have the game in hand last Sunday. The wildcat gave the Jets fits earlier this year so this should be a test of whether Rex Ryan can adjust to their multiple formations. All he needs to do is look at how Gregg Williams attacked it in the second half of the Saints/Dolphins team. Not having Kris Jenkins will hurt the Jets though. Look for the Dolphins to try and blitz Mark Sanchez into fumbling the hot dog, I mean football. Pick: Miami

San Francisco at Indianapolis (-12)
Alex Smith showed something in the second half of the Texans game last weekend and nearly pulled off the comeback. He’s been rewarded by being named the starter for this game. The Colts are rolling right now and would need to completely overlook the 49’ers to lose this game. If Frank Gore can get going and expose the Colts’ Achilles heel, stopping the run, the 49’ers can hang around for a while. Vernon Davis has been a monster and look for the Colts to zero in on him and make him a non-factor. Pick: San Francisco

St. Louis at Detroit (off)
How’s this for a game between two powerhouses? St. Louis has lost 17 games in a row dating back to last season, and is 2-21 since the start of the 2008 season. The Lions lost all 16 games last season and are 1-21 since the start of 2008. That should be 2-21 for the Lions after this game IF they have Stafford and Johnson back after they’ve had a bye to get healthy. The line being off is due to their uncertain playing status although both are likely to play. Pick: Detroit

Minnesota at Green Bay (-3)
The Favre Bowl II is upon us. Maybe you didn’t know but Brett Favre is making his return to Lambeau Field in a Vikings jersey. The Vikings finally lost last week and it was a Favre interception that did them in. Packers and Jets fans know that feeling well. Favre threw the ball 51 times which means that they relied too heavily on the pass and not on a more balanced attack with the run. They need to get back to pounding the ball with Adrian Peterson. Aaron Rodgers had better prey that Jared Allen breaks a leg or he could be looking at another long day running for his life. The Packers went a whole game without giving up a sack last week. Of course, they were playing the Browns. Pick: Green Bay

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (+1)
Neither team has looked great the last two weeks. The Giants have lost two in a row and Eli Manning’s play has been sloppy. The banged up pass defense has been gashed the last two games and DeSean Jackson could add to their miseries. Filthy beat the hapless Redskins Monday night but will need to play better against the Giants. Brian Westbrook might not play because of a concussion he suffered Monday night. Pick: New York

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3)
So now Vince Young gets a start? When we last saw the Titans they had basically quit in New England to the tune of 59-0. They might have a chance to get a win against a Jacksonville team that relies heavily on the run. Tennessee’s pass defense might be the worst in the league but they have been good at stopping the run and Jacksonville isn’t what you’d call a team that likes to air it out. Pick: Tennessee

Oakland at San Diego (-16 ½)
That Monday night game between these two to open the season seems like a long time ago. That Oakland team actually looked like they might be able to win some games on defense. Meanwhile the San Diego team that we saw that night has stayed the same; great offense through the air, no running game and mediocre defense. San Diego had an easy time against Kansas City last week and should have no problem here despite their deficiencies. Still, that’s a lot to lay on the Chargers. Pick: Oakland

Carolina at Arizona (-10)
This could be a trap game for a Cardinals team that is riding high with a three-game win streak after a solid win over the Giants last Sunday night. With San Francisco going against the Colts this weekend, the Cardinals need to put some distance between the two teams in the always boring NFC West. Meanwhile, Jake Delhomme continues to start for the Panthers despite the fact that he throws picks coming off the bus. He needs to get Steve Smith involved early if the Panthers hope to be competitive in this game. Pick: Arizona

Monday, November 2

Atlanta at New Orleans (-10)
New Orleans can wrap up the NFC South with a win here. Their comeback against the Dolphins was nothing short of astounding and the one aspect (DEFENSE ) that they needed improvement on over the off-season has been their calling card this season. The Saints already have 72 points off turnovers this season and lead the NFL in takeaways. The Falcons need this game desperately after their loss against Dallas last week and that desperation could play into the hands of the Saints, who have looked unbeatable at home this season. If they can’t get their dormant running game going, which was their specialty last season; they don’t have a chance here. Is Michael Turner really the same guy who rushed for almost 1,700 yards last season? Pick: Atlanta

Liver's 2009 NFL Week Seven Picks

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 21:02:44 -0400

The Liver is still rejoicing after the Longhorns’ 16-13 victory over Oklahoma last Saturday. How many millions has Sam Bradford cost himself now?

What is it with ESPN and these sexual indiscretions with female staffers? First it was Harold Reynolds then Woody Paige and now 46-year-old Steve Phillips and his affair with a 22-year-old dumpy ESPN production assistant that has turned into his own personal Fatal Attraction . He couldn’t do any better than that?

The spurned, chunky lover did a full-on Glenn Close complete with stalking phone calls and text messages to Phillips’ wife, and Facebook messages to his son. This culminated in her leaving a written letter to Phillips’ wife on her front door detailing the entire affair and crashing her car into a pole after Phillips’ wife came home to find her on her property. No bunny boiling in the pot? No kidnapping his son and taking him on a roller coaster?

Phillips must be a compete idiot considering that this isn’t his first time on this horse. When he was the GM of the N.Y. Mets in the 90s, he copped to having multiple affairs. Doesn’t he know by now that there is NO PRIVACY when it comes to these things?

These days, even if you’re a minor celebrity, you can’t get away with ANYTHING in the world of Facebook and Twitter. There HAS TO BE something in the water there in Bristol, Connecticut.

I don’t know why but I’m rooting for Bobby Bowden to end his tenure at Florida State on his own terms and not have to deal with all the crap that he’s had to over the last couple of weeks. I know they’re not a top 10 program anymore but I think 33 years on the job earns you the right to go out when you want to.

As if you needed more evidence as to why NOT to work with your wife. L.A. Dodgers owner and chairman Frank McCourt fired his wife Jamie as CEO of the team yesterday. By the way, the McCourts are also going through an already ugly divorce where both sides are fighting for control of the team. Isn’t marriage a beating enough without having to see your spouse on a daily basis?

Governator Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill yesterday allowing the construction of a 75,000 seat stadium in the L.A. area for a potential NFL team to hang its hat on. Don’t waste your time breaking ground on it, the people of L.A. will NEVER pay for it. That’s why the NFL will NEVER come back to L.A. No one cares enough in this town about the NFL to help foot the bill for a new stadium.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 6-8

2009 record against the spread: 56-34, .622

Sunday, October 25

San Diego at Kansas City (+4 ½)
You can go ahead and call it a season for the 2009 Chargers. The offense is solid through the air but the running game is awful and the defense is getting worse each game. They would need another late-season Broncos collapse to get back in the AFC West race and I don’t see that happening with the 2009 Broncos team.

The running game, which is tied for last in the NFL, has allowed teams to pressure and blitz Phillip Rivers late in games. Kansas City is coming off its first win and might be able to capitalize on an inconsistent Chargers defense that is fading late in games. Pick: Kansas City

Green Bay at Cleveland (+7)
Green Bay still has pass protection problems as last week’s five sacks indicated. Luckily they’re going up against a Cleveland team that has the 32nd ranked defense and the 31’st ranked offense in the NFL. Pick: Green Bay

Minnesota at Pittsburgh (-4)
This is shaping up to be the game of the weekend as the undefeated Vikings pay a visit to the Steelers. The Vikings defense forgot there were four quarters in the game last weekend and nearly gave away the game to the Ravens. The Steelers still have problems putting teams away as they showed last week against the Browns. Four turnovers don’t help either.

The Steelers will need to be flawless to beat the Vikings here. If the Vikings can continue to mix the run with the pass effectively they should come out with an impressive road win. Both of these defenses have given up large numbers of points in the fourth quarter. Pick: Minnesota

Chicago at Cincinnati (PK)
Losing Antwan Odom for the year could have a huge impact on that Bengals defense. Cedric Benson will no doubt have revenge on his mind as he faces his former team that he says blackballed him, yet everything they said about him was true.

He HAD been arrested for two alcohol related incidents before he was cut, HAD a poor work ethic AND performed poorly on the field. As Clifford Worley (Dennis Hopper) says in True Romance , “Now, if that’s a fact, tell me, am I lying?”

The Bears lost another game last week that they had control of and red zone turnovers are a huge problem for them. They must get Matt Forte and the running game going to keep the pressure off of Jay Cutler. Pick: Chicago

Indianapolis at St. Louis (+13)
Look for Peyton Manning to continue his hot streak against the win-less Rams. He should have no problems carving up another poor secondary. I know the Colts will be 6-0 after this game but I’m still not sure just how good they are. They’re not going to be truly challenged until the Patriots come to visit on November 15. Pick: Indy

New England at Tampa Bay (+14 ½) (in London)
I’d like to know how this constitutes as a home game for the Bucs considering that this game is in LONDON . What is the point in having these games there anyway? Oh, I forgot; Roger Goodell thinks that the NFL can travel overseas.

NO ONE overseas cares about the NFL. It’s the other football they care about. The Pats had a 2007 flashback last week as they rolled the Titans 59-0 and could have a similar output here. Pick: New England

San Francisco at Houston (-3)
San Francisco has had two weeks to think about that thrashing they took at the hands of the Falcons. The defense is still stingy but the 29th ranked offense needs a spark. Given that, it’s no surprise that this game will see the unveiling of Michael Crabtree after his lengthy holdout.

He just might have a decent debut considering that the Texans can score with anyone but can’t stop anyone consistently. The 49’rs should benefit from Frank Gore’s return. Pick: Houston

N.Y. Jets at Oakland (+7)
This game might actually be worth a watch. Don’t hear so much trash from Jets fans or Rex Ryan lately. Maybe that has to do with Mark Sanchez playing like a rookie the last three weeks or the defense collapsing late in games.

Oakland comes in high off their upset win over Filthy last week and if the Jets defense can’t get to JaMarcus Russell early, the Jets could be looking at a four game losing streak. This game also features two head coaches in Rex Ryan and Tom Cable who look like they would be happier starting drunken fistfights in a bar. We all know Cable's in for that. Pick: N.Y.

Buffalo at Carolina (-7)
Interested in two teams going nowhere fast? Then enjoy this waste of time. The Bills won a game against the Jets last week that NO TEAM deserved to win while the Panthers barely beat a win-less Bucs team while still turning over the ball at an alarming rate. Think I’ll pull an H.I. McDonnough for this game and “slip out with the boys and knock back a couple of Coca Colas.” Pick: Carolina

Atlanta at Dallas (-4)
Atlanta is looking strong after their win over the Bears last week and could roll up the points against a Cowboys secondary that is ranked 26th in the league. The Cowboys front seven have to get in Matt Ryan’s face early and often or this could get ugly. The Cowboys got some vital players back over the bye including Roy Williams and Felix Jones.

This should be a battle of running games. If the Cowboys can get their running game back to what it was early in the season with Jones, Barber and Choice running strong, they have a chance here as long as Tony Romo plays error free and the Dallas receivers can make some plays.

If the Falcons can get Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood going and improve on their 24th ranked rushing offense; that takes pressure off of Matt Ryan. I can’t believe in Dallas until they actually beat a good team. Pick: Atlanta

New Orleans at Miami (+7)
This should be an excellent test for the Saints defense as they face a wild cat heavy Dolphins offense and strong running game. They’ve feasted on opposing QBs so far this season and Chad Henne will have to play smart in order to avoid falling on that list. Pick: Miami

Arizona at N.Y. Giants (-7)
Looks like the injuries finally caught up to the Giants secondary last weekend. The run game never got much of a chance against the Saints because they were down double digits most of the game. Remarkably, the Cardinals are ranked number one in the NFL against the run giving up only 59.6 yards a game. They haven’t faced a physical, run-heavy team like the Giants though.

Arizona has gotten wins over the Texans and Seahawks the last two weeks and is on a good roll offensively. Whether or not they can keep that up against a Giants team looking for a reprieve after last week’s Saints beating is another thing. Pick: Arizona

Monday, October 26

Philadelphia at Washington (+7)
The Sherm Lewis era begins in Washington. Sorry, but a 67-year-old guy calling your offensive plays that was calling bingo numbers at a Detroit retirement home a week earlier and has been out of the NFL for five years doesn’t exactly light my fire. The Eagles are under pressure after that embarrassing loss to the Raiders last week and could feast on a dying Redskins offense.

The Redskins do, however, have the fifth ranked defense in the NFL that is third against the pass. If the Redskins’ pass rush can duplicate Oakland’s game plan and pressure McNabb all game long, then they have a chance. Filthy’s defense is ranked fourth overall in the league so this game might actually be an ugly, grind-it-out, low scoring affair. Take the under. Pick: Filthy

Liver's 2009 NFL Week Six Picks

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 19:25:41 -0400

It finally rained here in Los Angeles over the week. Maybe that will put out all these goddamn fires. If only a rain could come and wash away the mess that is the state economy. That would alleviate countless ulcers and have many here seeing God in the clouds.

Texas/OU pregame celebrations have already commenced for the Liver and he is about to board his flying saucer of a balloon to fly over the Cotton Bowl.

I think I’ve already passed my season limit of taking double digit favorites and we’re not even to Week Seven yet.

Of course, it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Isiah Thomas, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 11-3

2009 record against the spread: 50-26, .657

Sunday, Oct. 18

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-3)
The game of the weekend by far. Two of the three undefeated NFC teams go at it in what may be a preview of the conference championship. The Saints are fresh off a bye and will need to focus on stopping the Giants' powerful running game. Gregg Williams will no doubt bring pressure on Eli Manning and try to make his life miserable in the pocket. The Giants' injured secondary just might have met its match in the high octane Saints' offensive attack that has looked unstoppable at times, especially at home. Pick: New York

Kansas City at Washington (-6 ½)
Also known as Jim Zorn’s last stand. Kansas City should’ve won against the Cowboys last weekend but missed their chance. It might have a hangover effect in this game if they get off to a slow start against a troubled Redskins team that is literally playing for their coach’s job. If Kansas City can exploit the weak and injured Redskins' offensive line, they’ll be in the game. Washington isn’t good enough to be a six-plus point favorite over anybody. Pick: Kansas City

St. Louis at Jacksonville (-10)
I know I picked Seattle to beat Jacksonville last weekend but NO ONE saw that 41-0 destruction coming. Whatever ails the Jaguars should be fixed here against a Rams team that took the mantle of Worst Team in the NFL away from the Browns last weekend. If the Rams had the weapons they could exploit a Jags' pass defense that is ranked 30th in the league. Looks like Rush Limbaugh’s bid to buy the team didn’t even last a week. What a surprise. Who figured there would be a public outcry against Rush Limbaugh buying an NFL team what with his spotless past? Pick: Jacksonville

Detroit at Green Bay (-13 ½)
Green Bay is coming off their bye, but will their offensive line problems still linger? Detroit was competitive against Pittsburgh but still has a ways to go on defense. Matt Stafford’s status is uncertain for this game as is Calvin Johnson's, which means that neither will play. If Detroit can put pressure on the shaky Packers' offensive line, they might be able to make this a ballgame. I want to take Detroit here, but without their two best offensive weapons, I must gamble on the side of caution. Pick: Green Bay

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)
Don’t expect the Browns to add to their win streak here. Derek Anderson is not going to beat this team going 2-for-17-for-23 yards. The Steelers have owned this team since 2003, winning 11 in a row and nothing should change in this matchup. The Steelers have had problems putting teams away late in games this year, but there is nothing to indicate that the Browns can even score on them. This isn’t the Buffalo Bills. Pick: Pittsburgh

Houston at Cincinnati (-5)
The Texans followed their pattern last week of lose-win, lose-win, and continue to be the definition of mediocrity. The Bengals pulled out another last minute fourth quarter win and will have to be careful of a letdown here. Much of the Bengals' success has come on the ground with Cedric Benson reviving what had been a bust of a career. The Texans have had problems with strong running teams, so look for the Bengals to pound away with the run game. Still, the Texans can put up points. Pick: Houston

Baltimore at Minnesota (-3)
Baltimore has lost two straight heart breakers, and late penalties have been a factor in both losses. The defense gave up their first 100-yard rusher since Dec. 10, 2006 as Cedric Benson ran wild against them. It doesn’t get any easier as they face Adrian Peterson and the undefeated Vikings. Still, this looks to be one of the better matchups of the weekend. Pick: Minnesota

Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3 ½)
Carolina finally got its first win of the season last weekend and needs to capitalize on a weak Tampa Bay secondary early. Carolina would be wise to use their power tandem of Williams and Stewart heavily against a Tampa Bay run defense that is giving up 153 yards on the ground per game. Pick: Tampa Bay

Arizona at Seattle (-3)
Take the over on this one. Both teams have had shown flashes of excellent play, and in this crappy NFC West division, especially with the 49ers getting drilled last weekend, you’re never out of it. Seattle looked dominant against the Jags last weekend, and the Cardinals held off a late Texans' rally. This is going to come down to which defense can make a play in the end. The Seahawks seem to have the defensive edge, particularly when it comes to rushing the passer. The Seahawks are tied for fourth in the NFL with 14 sacks and have the ability to knock Kurt Warner around before he has time to find his receivers. Pick: Seattle

Philadelphia at Oakland (+14)
This should be over in the first quarter much like the Giants/Raiders game from last weekend. Philly is healthy and starting to hit its stride while the Raiders play with less heart each weekend. JaMarcus Russell is an embarrassment to the QB position. It doesn’t even look like he cares anymore. Pick: Filthy

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-10)
The Jets are facing adversity for the first time under the new Sanchez/Ryan regime, after losing their last two games. They need to capitalize on an anemic Bills' offense that could only score three points against Cleveland last week. The blitz happy Jets' defense should dominate this game. Much like the Redskins, this Bills team is playing for Dick Jauron’s job. Rumors have already begun circulating that there could be a Baby Drop to the Bears trade in the works. Pick: New York

Tennessee at New England (-9 ½)
Vince Young finally got some time under center last week, and with the Titans 0-5 now, there’s no reason he shouldn’t start the rest of the way. New England is coming off a tough OT loss in Denver and Tom Brady should find the injured Titans' secondary, which is giving up more yards through the air than any team not named the Arizona Cardinals, easy targets. Pick: New England

Chicago at Atlanta (-3)
Atlanta comes off a statement game where they tore the 49’rs to pieces while the Bears are rested coming off their bye. With the Vikings looking unbeatable and in control of the NFC North, the Bears will need every win they can get if they hope to get a wild card spot. Atlanta found their run game last weekend and should continue to pound the ball away with Michael Turner. Pick: Atlanta

Monday, Oct. 19

Denver at San Diego (-4)
I think we can all say after last Sunday’s win against the Patriots, that the Broncos are for real. They’ll be tested here in a game that could decide the AFC West early. San Diego, at 2-2 and coming off a bye that saw their GM criticize the defense, needs this game in the worst way or things could completely unravel. Look for Denver to blitz Philip Rivers heavily as the Chargers are a throw-first team since their running game has been nonexistent so far this season. Pick: Denver

Liver's 2009 NFL Week Five Picks

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:41:34 -0400

Now that the Dallas Cowboys season is over, the Liver has to wonder now if he wants them to completely go in the toilet so that one Wade Phillips will be exorcised from the franchise like a bad demon. Now if Jerry Jones could just realize that the way he is running this organization is part of the reason why it hasn’t won a playoff game in 13 years.

Why so glum at 2-2 you ask? Because this team just isn’t consistent enough. They make too many mental mistakes and commit too many penalties.

Because the Cowboys already trail the Giants by two games in the NFC East and they still must make a trip to New York in December. December also includes road trips to New Orleans and Washington, and home games against San Diego and Philadelphia.

Last weekend’s kick in the nuts against the Broncos was just more evidence that the 2009 Dallas Cowboys aren’t even waiting for December to do their annual swoon. The offense can’t score points and the defense is good until when it counts in the fourth quarter. They only led a winless Carolina team by six points late in the fourth quarter and could have lost that game had Jake Delhomme not given Terence Newman six points.

They led a Denver team in the fourth quarter that couldn’t get out of its own way on offense up until an improbable 51-yard Brandon Marshall TD that displayed some of the poorest give up tackling you’ll ever see courtesy of the Cowboys secondary.

Tony Romo continues to show why he can’t be depended on to be this team’s leader as he reverts to his old form of turning over the ball at the worst times every other week. A Romo fumble gift-wrapped seven of the Broncos 17 points and another interception recovered by Champ Bailey at the Broncos six cost the Cowboys three if not seven points. As Coach Tony D’Amato says that’s “the f***ing difference between WINNING and LOSING between LIVING and DYING!”

I won’t bother to go into the horseshit holding call on Martellus Bennett early in the fourth quarter that wiped out a 21-yard Tashard Choice run to the Denver 40 OR the final play of the game where Champ Bailey hooked his right arm around Sam Hurd’s waist so he could reach with the left over Hurd’s shoulder to knock away what would’ve been the game tying TD.

It seems that the NFL is interested in rivaling the NBA for poor officiating but I guess it could be worse. Your team could be playing against Mr. GQ QB and the Patriots who will most likely get EVERY borderline roughing the QB penalty known to man this season.

The Cowboys had every opportunity to put away a Denver team that isn’t nearly as good as their undefeated record would indicate and couldn’t. Not having their home run hitter Felix Jones didn’t help nor did Jason Garrett’s idiotic abandonment of the run in the second half as the Cowboys ran the ball 7 TIMES while leading for most of it. And that’s not taking away anything from a Denver defense that has gotten a superb makeover by Mike Nolan.

The Cowboys offensive line gave up five sacks and Romo got his ass kicked all over the field. Maybe that explains why the majority of his passes as the game progressed were too high and off the mark. I don’t think Roy Williams liked him very much this week. I probably wouldn’t like my QB either if he led me into a hit that nearly gutted me like a fresh Thanksgiving turkey waiting to be devoured by a band of homeless people.

It’s hard to say which is more troubling; the Cowboys offense or defense. After four games Tony Romo has four TDs and four INTs. Incidentally, three of those TDs came courtesy of a winless Tampa Bay team that is lucky to know what zip code their own stadium is in. That’s two games in a row with no TDs for Romo.

In a way, I feel bad for him. He is possibly, the most talked about, under the microscope professional Dallas sports athlete I have ever seen. In this day and age where ANYONE can purport to be a sports expert, WHICH I DO NOT, and You Tube, blog and publish their opinions just about anywhere; high-profile athletes are under the microscope more than ever. I’m just an asshole who keeps a bottle of Glenlivet next to my bed so I can have breakfast in bed when I wake up.

His story was impossible not to like at the beginning. An undrafted QB who had been holding a clipboard since 2003 comes off the bench in 2006 and leads the Dallas Cowboys to early success and is, literally, an overnight sensation. With the odds stacked against him, only the most ardent of Cowboys haters could not like him. But with that early success came Hollywood girlfriends, numerous commercials and big pay days; all without winning a Super Bowl much less a playoff game.

Now three years later and numerous big game (see the month of December) failures, Romo’s play has regressed so badly that he’s a merely an average QB at this point. Over the off season, Jerry Jones purged the team of trouble elements (Baby Drop) that might have kept Romo from taking a more vocal leadership on the team. He even infamously coined the phrase “Romo-friendly” when describing what the offense would be like this season. It has been anything but so far.

Had he kept a lower profile, he probably wouldn’t be as dissected and controversial as he is across the country. And by lower profile I mean not getting up on the stage during rock shows in L.A. and singing “Don’t Stop Believing,” judging beauty pageants or showing up at the Liver’s beloved Casa Vega in Sherman Oaks, California with Jessica Simpson while your team is having OTAs in preparation for the upcoming season.

Yes, the Liver did see both up close but did not ask for autographs nor pester them. When you live in Los Angeles, seeing celebrities gets old after the first month. To be honest, if the Liver had asked Romo a question it would’ve gone along the lines of “What the hell happened in Filthy last year?”

Say what you will about Tom Brady but he’s earned the right to date, impregnate and marry actresses and supermodels. He’s got three rings. Romo likes being a celebrity, he’s embraced it from the moment he became a public figure, and this is the price he has to pay when he is the starting QB of the Dallas Cowboys who is the highest paid player on the team and is playing the way he’s playing right now.

I’m not blaming all of this on him; the Cowboys blitz pickup seems to be kindred spirits with Green Bay’s right now. That could also explain why Romo was possibly confused as to whether third and goal in his mind was really fourth and goal at the end of the game. There’s the aforementioned Jason Garrett play calling which makes me wonder if he’s having a few drinks during the game. With your offense in scoring position and Jason Witten, arguably your best offensive player on the field, you call two throws to SAM HURD who’s being covered by one of the best corners in the game in Champ Bailey?

I could also remind you all that Wade Phillips claimed not to know that Marion Barber’s quad tightened up in the second half and couldn’t play but then that would be reminding you that you get wet when you jump into a large body of water.

Right; next thing you’ll tell me David Letterman has had sex with girls that worked on his show. You mean celebrities, even ones that look like David Letterman, can have sex with anyone they want just because they’re celebrities? You mean that Southern California has been on fire for the last two months and no amount of firefighters can put it out?

Thank God for the Texas Longhorns. Only eight more days until I see Sooner blood washing over the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

You’ll probably notice that this could be one of the worst weeks of the season game-wise. By my count there are only three games this weekend (Cincinnati/Baltimore, Atlanta/San Francisco, New England/Denver) that hold ANY interest whatsoever. Always remember Coughlin’s Law; Anything else is always something better.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Isiah Thomas, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 6-8

2009 record against the spread: 39-23

F.Y.I. The Liver incorrectly gave himself a push for the September 20 game between Oakland and Kansas City. Kansas City was laying 3 at home and the Liver took Oakland plus the points. Oakland won 13-10 so the supposed push was actually a win.

Sunday, October 11

Minnesota at St. Louis (+10)
Must be nice to be a Minnesota fan at the Metrodome this past weekend. The Vikings win the Brett Favre Bowl I Monday night then the Twins win their division the next night. The Vikings looked very impressive in their win over the Packers and right now, look to be the best in the NFC next to the Giants and the Saints. If that pass rush and offensive line continues to dominate like they have, they just might be THE best in the NFC. They could win this game with Favre playing blindfolded.

More bad news for the Rams; Rush Limbaugh is part of a group along with Dave Checketts that is bidding to buy the team away from current ownership.

Here’s the part that should really disgust you; Rush Limbaugh can actually afford to buy an NFL team. Thanks to all the conservative assholes out there who listen to his show and have helped line his pockets with that kind of insane cash. But on the bright side, at least Rush will be able to help himself to all the Demerol and painkillers he wants for free. Guess the Rams won’t be drafting any black QBs anytime soon. If Rush buys the team, will the Rams be the first modern NFL team to field an all white boy unit? Pick: Minnesota

Pittsburgh at Detroit (+10 ½)
As if being a Detroit sports fan hasn’t been difficult enough over the past year, they had to endure an epic collapse by the Tigers Tuesday night. Now the Lions have to face a re energized Steelers team. Pittsburgh nearly blew a 28-0 lead but closed out a defensively challenged Chargers team 38-28 Sunday night and, for that night anyway, found their dormant running game in the form of Rashard Mendenhall. They should find it again against a Lions team that still has a long ways to go on defense. The Lions brass would be wise to let Matt Stafford, who is already nursing an injury, sit this one out as he could be put as Sensei Kreese would say “out of commission” by the Steelers pass rush. Pick: Pittsburgh

Dallas at Kansas City (+8)
If Dallas loses this game, Wade Phillips shouldn’t even bother coming back to Dallas on the flight. Then again this is a team that is winless and we all Dallas can beat those teams. It’s just the ones with SOME talent that they can’t close out in the end. No Felix Jones again and Roy Williams and his HURTING rib cage will probably not be much of a factor but it shouldn’t mater against this utter mess of a team across the board. The Chiefs have the lowest third down conversion rate in the NFL. Anyone want to take odds on how long it takes for Todd Haley to piss everyone on this team off? Looks like firing your offensive coordinator the week before the season starts really fires a team up. Kansas City, Buffalo and Tampa Bay are a combined 1-11. Still, this game worries me. Playing in Arrowhead is never easy and this could be the dreaded “statement” game for the Chiefs. Pick: Kansas City

Oakland at N.Y. Giants (-15)
Eli Manning’s recently diagnosed plantar fasciitis could have far reaching effects later on in the season but that foot would have to fall off for the Giants to lose to this pathetic Raiders offense that hasn’t scored a TD in two weeks. Even if Manning doesn’t play and David Carr is asked to run the offense, they should still steamroll this Oakland team. Pick: New York

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-15)
Donovan McNabb returns after missing two games and should find it quite enjoyable against a winless Tampa Bay team that will be lucky to win two games this year. Look for Michael Vick to freak his teammates out when he starts barking in the huddle. Taking two home teams laying 15 points each? Priceless. Pick: Filthy

Cleveland at Buffalo (-6)
So it looks like the Dog Pound and the rest of Cleveland won’t have Braylon Edwards and his drops to kick around anymore. They had their chances to win last week in overtime against Cincinnati but couldn’t pull it out. They may have a shot here against a Buffalo offense that is struggling to score points. How’s that new offensive coordinator thing working out again? If Cleveland wins this game, look for Baby Drop to have his first meltdown of the season and Dick Jauron to be fired. Pick: Cleveland

Washington at Carolina (-3 ½)
You keep thinking that this Panthers team has to get better considering that this same team won 12 games a year ago. They can’t be THAT bad, can they? The Redskins should be a good remedy for them. Look for Carolina to get their first win and force Jim Zorn to adjust the typeface on his resume. Pick: Carolina

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-8 ½)
FINALLY…a game worth your time. Who would’ve thought you’d say that about ANY Bengals game this season? The Ravens will be seething after their heartbreaking loss against the Pats last weekend and the Bengals could see the worst of it. The Ravens need to get back to the run and avoid the drops and penalties which cost them the win last weekend. The Bengals passing game has been suspect the last 2 weeks, despite winning both games, and has to improve to come out with the upset here. Pick: Cincinnati

Atlanta at San Francisco (-2 ½)
Another game worthy of interest. Michael Crabtree finally signed a six year contract with 49’rs this week. I’m sure it had nothing to do with their 3-1 record and control of the NFC West. The real surprise is that M.C. Hammer had a hand in the negotiations. Has Crabtree familiarized himself with Hammer’s financial past? I know that when I sign my first big contract I want a guy who was so irresponsible with his $30 million that he was bankrupt inside of 10 years.

Then again, given the M.C. Hammer/Deion Sanders/Eugene Parker connection, maybe it isn’t so strange. Deion has been “mentoring” Crabtree over the last year acting as a go-between for Crabtree and his agent Eugene Parker who just happens to be Deion’s agent. Hammer and Sanders have been friends for years and this could’ve been Deion’s way of throwing his buddy a much-needed bone of good publicity. Very shady dealings going on there. Just ask Dez Bryant.

Next thing you’re gonna tell me, President Obama is going to hire Hammer as his new economic advisor. Atlanta is coming off a bye and will find it difficult to establish the run against a tough 49’rs run defense. That means Matt Ryan will have to make plays through the air and attack the 49’rs secondary which is no slouch either. Pick: S.F.

Houston at Arizona (-5 ½)
Arizona and Kurt Warner come off a much needed bye week and find a shaky Texans defense waiting for them. Look for Houston to follow their pattern of lose/win, lose/win. However, there should be no shortage of points scored in this game. Take the over here if you can. Pick: Arizona

New England at Denver (+3 ½)
This could possibly be the most intriguing game of the weekend. Not because it’s the mind numbing 4-0 Broncos and Josh McDaniels going against his old Patriots team that is 3-1 and improving each week. The intrigue will be in seeing GQ QB wear one of his wife’s pink dresses during the game; remember the NFL is trying to raise awareness for breast cancer this month.

After seeing what constitutes as roughing the Brady last week against the Ravens, that’s all that remains for the NFL to do in order to make its point that GOD FORBID any mean old defender touch a hair on poor Tom’s chinny old chin. Guess we all know by now which position sells this league don’t we? Too bad because Mike Nolan’s defense can get after the QB, just ask one Tony Romo. It should be an incredibly physical game notwithstanding as both teams hit and tackle well. I’m gonna take a chance on the Broncos here. They’ve earned it. Pick: Denver

Jacksonville at Seattle (PK)
Jacksonville has rebounded from an 0-2 start with two straight wins over divisional opponents and is showing some signs of life in the running game. Seattle gets Matt Hasselbeck back (try saying that five times in a row) but the shaky offensive line, minus Walter Jones, might have him back on the sidelines sooner rather than later. For some reason, the smart money is on the Seahawks. Pick: Seattle

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+3 ½)
Think NBC wishes they had a season-long ability to flex games? The Colts look better each week and are the best in the AFC right now while the 0-4 Titans get worse every week. How bad is bad for the Titans? Vince Young is taking snaps on the sideline. Never thought in a million years that mentioning Vince Young would be synonymous with desperation but it is. It’s hard to believe that this uninspired team is coached by the great Jeff Fisher. I want to take the Titans here to cover but they’ve shown nothing this season to warrant it. The Colts also get Dwight Freeney back ahead of schedule and Bob Sanders is close to returning. That could make this team nearly unbeatable. Pick: Indy

Monday, October 12

N.Y. Jets at Miami (+1 ½)
So all it takes to get the hell out of Cleveland is to complain about staph infections or punch out one of Baby Bron’s buddies. Look for Brady Quinn to get into a bar brawl this coming weekend. Either way, Braylon Edwards just got a new lease on life as he goes to a much better team. The question is whether or not he’ll be suspended for his fracas over the weekend. Mark Sanchez got his first dose of reality last week and it could continue against Joey Porter and Jason Taylor coming off the edges. The Wildcat didn’t confuse Rex Ryan when he was with Baltimore last year and the Ravens beat the hell out of Miami in the playoffs. Whether he has the personnel in New York to combat it is another thing. Pick: Miami

Liver's Super Bowl Pick: Giants to Cover, Patriots to Win

Adnan Tezer — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 03:58:47 -0500

I have to be honest: I hate both teams for different reasons so finding a team to root for will be a challenge.

Either way, by the end of the night I’m going to be drunk and depressed so what the hell difference does it make?

Of course it goes without saying that the following pick against the spread is for recreational use only. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Roger Goodell and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Overall 2007 Playoff Record: 5-4-1

Sunday, February 3, 2008

Super Bowl XLII

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants (+12)

The Giants are coming in with confidence after nailing both Dallas and Green Bay on the road. No doubt their narrow loss to the Patriots in Week 17 provided this team with an energy boost that you don’t see often. Three road playoff games, three wins. That’s impressive and, OH GOD, I’m actually going to give Eli Manning some credit.Their pass rush, which led the NFL in sacks, got to Brady in their regular season game by rushing four and leaving seven in coverage.

They will no doubt try and duplicate their performance from that game. On offense, the Giants can beat you by running or passing, and Eli Manning has not made a costly mistake yet in the playoffs.

Then you have the undefeated Patriots. My feelings towards their coach is often lamented and is now legendary Bleacher Report lore. I don’t care for Belichick much. Love them or hate them, you gotta respect them, and certainly Vegas has with the one-sided point spread. How effective will a dinged up Giants’ secondary be dealing with Randy Moss and Wes Welker?

In the end, the game will come down to Tom Brady’s injured ankle. If it’s a non issue and the offensive line protects him, then the Patriots will win easily. If the Giants can knock him around a little, they have the arrogance and the talent to keep it close into the fourth quarter. Honestly though, how can you not pick the Patriots to win?

Pick: Giants to cover, but Patriots straight up.

Liver's 10 Most Annoying Super Bowl Party Guests

Adnan Tezer — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 12:44:05 -0500

It would seem it’s goodbye for another off-season, dear readers. How we all made it this far is anyone’s guess.

With a pitiful regular season, wagering wise, down the toilet, the Liver made up a little ground with the playoffs but, ultimately, not enough for him to avoid watching the Super Bowl from the window of a Best Buy somewhere.

Instead of getting into the game itself, which, let’s be honest, is usually an anticlimactic disappointment, I feel it necessary to warn you fans of the ten most annoying Super Bowl guests one can encounter on Super Bowl Sunday.

First, as many of you reading this will probably attest, it gives one migraines to watch a game with a bunch of people who, for the most part, haven’t bothered to watch ONE GAME all year. Super Bowl Sunday, for real football fans, is like New Year’s Eve for alcoholics. All the amateurs are running around like they know what they’re doing or saying and consequently ruin the experience for the real fan or alcoholic.

Here's the list of the top ten most annoying Super Bowl party guests:

The so-called fan, usually a woman, who has NO CLUE what’s happening and proceeds to bombard you with brilliant queries such as: “Why don’t they score more?”, “Why don’t they kick more?”, “What is the QB doing behind the big fat guy at the line?”, and my favorite…”Why is it only the QB can throw the ball?”
Another female party guest, sorry ladies, but it’s true, that has to dress so provocatively, get so drunk and be way too flirty that her boyfriend/husband is eyeballing every other straight guy present. He will probably pick a fight with some guy before the evening’s out. This usually happens at halftime.
Fans, and here I mean guys, that claim to be big fans of one of the teams playing, but that you can expose inside of 5 minutes of serious football talk for being the bandwagon bastard that he is. Usually, this happens during the National Anthem. Typically such a moron will throw out brilliant coaching strategies for his team like, “How bout a QB sneak?” on third and ten from inside their own five. You can spot them by noticing each guy that has a BRAND NEW JERSEY of his QB that has never been worn. The more worn out the jersey is, the better chance you have of finding a real football fan.
That girl, sorry again ladies, that is there just for the betting grids and gambling action and spends the entire game TALKING! What is she saying? “I know nothing about this game, but I always pick winners.” Typically this is when I say, “Then move to Vegas or shut the fuck up.”
The couple that gets into a fight over how drunk the man is. If I wanted drama, I’d watch network television. The girl retreats to a gaggle of girls to spout off while the drunk puts his arm around you and points out that: a) Women suck; and b) He’s going to be having sex by himself tonight after the game. Typically, he’ll then ask if you want to do a shot with him, then go puke in the bushes or in someone’s drink.
The couple that brings their infant child to the party and thinks it’s cute to watch him/her crawl up to the TV screen. They then take pictures WHILE THE GAME IS GOING ON. This is then followed by, “Who wants to help us change little INSERT NAME HERE’S diaper.
The overly drugged out guy or girl that tries to “pump everyone up” by slipping Ecstasy in their drinks. If I wanted to roll, I’d still be going to raves.
The fan that relives his high school football days in graphic detail WHILE THE GAME IS GOING ON and makes you realize that there are a lot of Uncle Ricos out there in the world.
Guys with rally caps on. It was old in college.
The fan that triumphantly announces at halftime, with the score tied 21-21, “We’re winning this game.” Notice how few women are around this guy.
Dishonorable Mention (Haven’t encountered this guy yet but I’m sure I will this year.) The so-called Boston sports fan who loves all Boston teams (must be rough), yet has NO connection whatsoever to the region, either by birth OR family. Typically, when you ask them how long they’ve been Boston-crazy, the answer in years is in single digits. Funny how that time frame matches the Patriots and the Red Sox winning multiple championships. This guy will end up with my boot up his ass and a well-deserved exit from the premises.

Liver's 2008 NFL Playoff Picks: Conference Championship Games

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 02:05:48 -0500

Monday January 14, 7:36 A.M. Lew Sterrett Correctional Facility:

First of all, I’d like to thank the girl I went to the game with for bailing me out although I’m still not sure what happened. This much I do know: the Cowboys blew it..plain and simple. And to the f***ing Giants and Eli Manning of all teams. As for what happened after, as Michael J. Fox said in Bright Lights, Big City, “the terrain isn’t entirely unfamiliar although the details are fuzzy.”

I do know that I went downtown for a consolation drink, then went Mel Gibson/Joe Pesci on some Giants fan’s head and it mysteriously got rammed between a car door and the car..REPEATEDLY and VIGOROUSLY. How it happened, police are still investigating.

Thank god this season is just about over. I’m getting too old for this. Then again, my new girlfriend seems pretty loyal and was even turned on by the minor display of childish violence. Maybe I won after all? Better make this quick. I’m due in court for these pesky assault charges. Seems my Giants friend hasn’t completely recovered from his coma.

I have a bad feeling these games are going to be blowouts and therefore VERY boring.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks against the spread are for recreational use only. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Roger Goodell and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 3-1

Overall 2007 Playoff Record: 5-2-1

San Diego (+14) at New England

The Chargers shocked everyone by going into Indy and beating the Colts. What made it even more impressive was how banged up they were. Their magical season ends in New England, though. Rivers, Tomlinson and Gates are ALL banged up. They would need to be 150 percent to beat the Patriots in Foxboro. True the Chargers are a different team than the one that was beaten down in week two by New England. Yet, the questions remain as it does for every team that plays the Pats…how do you stop them through the air and how do you match points? With as many injured starters as the Chargers have, I don’t see how they can last four quarters with the Patriots.

Pick: New England

New York Giants (+7) at Green Bay

I’ll admit even though I picked the Giants to cover the spread, I didn’t think they’d beat Dallas. Forgive me if I’m still traumatized. That being said, I can’t emphasize this enough: take all the money you have and put it on Green Bay. Eli Manning already has his “I don’t play well in bad weather” excuse built-in and I feel that the Giants used up all the energy they had against Dallas. I just think Green Bay is a better and healthier team that is going to pounce on the Giants and make them wish they never made the trip to Lambeau.

Pick: Green Bay

Liver's 2008 NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 02:59:56 -0500

This is bar none, or in my case, bar full, the BEST weekend of the playoffs.

All four games should be entertaining through the fourth quarter—at least. Strange how history says that at least one or two teams will get drilled here.

In any event, the beer and whiskey will be flowing...and all will be right with the world. I'll be tailgating at Texas Stadium at noon and trying to nail every girl I can before kickoff.

If only every weekend could be like this one.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Roger Goodell, and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 2-1-1

Saturday, January 12th

Seattle (+8) at Green Bay

Mike Holmgren and Matt Hasselbeck return to their former home—and site of the infamous “We want the ball and we’re gonna score” bit Hasselbeck threw out the last time these two teams met in the playoffs.

I think we all remember how that turned out.

Ironically, with two of the NFL's better offenses squaring up here, defense will decide the winner. Seattle’s D was menacing against the Redskins last week, but I doubt they’ll have the same success against the Packers.

Plus, the Seahawks are a bad road team.

Pick: Green Bay

Jacksonville (+13) at New England

This is a much tougher game for the Pats than the spread would indicate—and is the dream matchup for those wanting to see New England tested.

David Garrard didn’t play especially well last week, but his 4th-and-2 scramble at the end of the game will live in playoff lore.

The Pats only weakness?

Stopping the run.

The Jags greatest strength, outside of their defense?

The running duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.

The key matchup, though, will be the Pats passing game against the Jags secondary. In the end, I don’t see the Jags being able to match the Pats point for point.

Pick: Jacksonville

Sunday, January 13th

Do you like your Manning in the morning or the afternoon?

San Diego (+8 1⁄2) at Indianapolis

A rematch of one of the most whacked-out games of the year, from Week 10, when the Chargers BARELY beat the Colts and forced Peyton Manning into SIX INTs.

While it’s doubtful that Manning will play that badly again, the Chargers have always feasted on Peyton with a vicious pass rush.

But it's hard to believe the Chargers defense will post a repeat performance of that earlier game.

Remember that the Colts were banged up...and were still within an Adam Vinatieri chip shot of winning it outright.

The Colts will load up the box with Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders, thus daring the inconsistent Philip Rivers to throw the ball against a superb Indy secondary. If Rivers doesn't have Antonio Gates at his disposal, it could be a long day for the Chargers.

Pick: Indy

N.Y. Giants (+7 1⁄2) at Dallas

I’m trying to enjoy this week. I really am.

My team is in a divisional playoff game at home, and is the No. 1 seed in its conference. Most fans dream of this.

That said...this game worries the piss out of me AND my friends who are Cowboys fans.

My friend Brian from Austin said it best in a text message he sent me a few days ago.

“Cowboys don’t act like they care. Romo and Jessica in Cancun. Witten muttering that hopefully they won’t lose. Don’t like it. Winners don’t say that shit.”

Amen, my friend.

If the 'Boys do lose—BELIEVE ME, Romo will be hung up on a cross for taking that ill-timed vacation.

You don’t see Tom Brady or Peyton Manning taking vacations right now, do you?

The Cowboys finished December at 2-2—and it would've been 1-3 had the Lions just fallen on a fumble. That’s another December collapse in my mind. This team hasn’t looked sharp since the second half of the Green Bay game on November 29th.

As for Sunday's game—the Cowboys' hopes rest with Terrell Owens. I feel a Ferris Bueller moment coming on...

The question isn’t, “Will T.O. play?” The question is “How healthy will he be?”

With T.O. fully healthy, the Cowboys offense is as good as any in the league. Without him, they have trouble scoring TDs—and will be in serious trouble.

Terry Glenn and center Andre Gurode are also expected to play, so the Cowboys will have their full team ready. Where their heads are is another matter.

This will be the third time these two teams have seen each other this season, which also makes me nervous, because of the old football maxim, “It’s tough to beat a team three times in the same year.”

I'm trying to channel the Titans from 1999, when they beat the Jags three times, including in the AFC Championship game.

The Cowboys won the two regular-season matchups by a combined 21 points, but were fully healthy then. What's more, both games were close late in the fourth, so the scores are deceiving.

The Giants have been playing their best ball as of late, and thoroughly took apart the Bucs in the Wild Card round. New York is 8-1 on the road this year, with the lone loss coming at Dallas in Week One.

Clearly, the Giants aren't intimidated by road games.

The New York pass rush is among the best in the league, and their game plan will be to get to Romo early and often. These teams know and hate each other, so expect some hard hits...and maybe a late shot or two.

If the good Eli Manning shows up as he did in the last three quarters against Tampa, this game will go down to the wire. If the real Eli Manning shows up and throws his customary two picks, the Cowboys should have enough to get their first playoff win in 11 years.

Oh—and that Romo guy might want to get his head out of his ass and show up too.

The only thing that can save the 'Boys is the restoration of their once-dominant offense. This is one of the most difficult games I’ve ever handicapped, but...

Pick: N.Y. Giants

Liver's 2008 NFL Playoff Picks: Wild Card Round

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 02:44:06 -0500

Does anybody really follow through on their New Year’s resolutions?

I say every year that I’m gonna cut back on the boozing and whoring...but that doesn’t last very long.

Maybe you have to really WANT to lose weight or stop drinking in order to do so.

At least the Orange Bowl was somewhat entertaining. Can’t say that for the rest of the meaningless, money-grubbing bowl games.

Are we all ready for Roger Clemens on 60 Minutes this Sunday?

“Yes I took a shot in the butt...BUT it was only B-12.”

See, I know what he’s going to say before he even says it.

Let’s see if I can manage a better playoff performance than the regular season debacle I just wrapped up.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Roger Goodell, and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Saturday, January 5th

Washington (+3 1⁄2) at Seattle

Washington has been on an emotional high the last month, but it ends in Seattle.

The Sean Taylor tragedy has unified the team—and with Joe Gibbs’ guidance, they arrive streaking into the playoffs. QB Todd Collins has revitalized a dormant career by playing error-free football.

Unfortunately, this game is where missing Taylor, Carlos Rogers, Jon Jansen, Randy Thomas, and Rocky McIntosh will hurt the most.

Seattle has struggled of late, but the Seahawks play best at home. Qwest Field remains one of the toughest stadiums in football.

Having home-field advantage can be sometimes overrated—but in this case it will be enough, provided the Seahawks don’t turn the ball over. The holdovers from the Super Bowl run can get the job done.

Against the Spread Pick: Seattle

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (+2)

Funny, but Jacksonville looks more like Pittsburgh than Pittsburgh does.

They Jags are playing as well as any AFC team not named the Patriots or Colts—and are doing it on offense, defense, and special teams. They led the AFC in rushing and were second overall in the NFL—which translates into long, clock-controlling drives.

I know it’s asking a lot for one team to go into another's house and beat them twice in less than a month, but the Steelers are banged up on the offensive line, at QB, and in the running game—and have played their worst football of the year in the last month.

No Willie Parker means not much consistency on the ground—and no, I don’t count Najeh “I’ll take a dump in a girl’s closet” Davenport as consistent.

The only tangible advantages that Pittsburgh has over Jacksonville are playoff experience and an NFL-leading defense. They won’t be enough.

Against the Spread Pick: Jacksonville

Sunday, January 6th

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Tampa Bay

The Bucs have been sitting players the last few weeks, while the Giants put forth a valiant effort against the Pats in their final regular-season game.

The Giants have some serious injury issues to deal with (e.g. no Jeremy Shockey), while the Bucs are relatively healthy except for Jeff Garcia.

This game will come down to QB play—and while I think the Giants are capable of winning, Garcia doesn’t make the mistakes that Eli Manning does.

As soon as the Giants lost the lead against the Pats on Saturday, I thought, "Here comes the INT"—and gee, what happened?

Manning has 20 INTs and five fumbles on the year—and Tampa Bay's D allowed the fewest yards and points in the NFC.

But even for all of that, I still think the Giants are the better team, with better playmakers on offense and a better pass rush. And in today’s NFL, a great offense is better than a great defense.

Add to that Garcia's health woes and my complete lack of respect for Tampa and...

Against the Spread Pick: Giants

Tennessee (+9) at San Diego

When Kerry Collins stepped in for Vince Young Sunday night, the Tennessee offense actually looked somewhat crisp.

That said, the Amazing Vince is the heart of that team—and his absence this weekend would eliminate any chance the Titans have at an upset.

The Chargers are playing their best ball of the season. San Diego led the NFL with 48 takeaways, and got eight combined TDs from defense and special teams.

Still, the McFly factor of Norv Turner makes me nervous. That and the fact that Philip Rivers isn’t playing well.

The QB threw for fewer than 200 yards in 10 games, and the Chargers finished 26th in the league in passing. Aside from LT, no playmakers have emerged here—not Chris Chambers, not Antonio Gates.

If the Amazing Vince were healthy, I'd be all over the Titans to win. He ALWAYS comes to play in big games. But since he’s hurt, this becomes the Chargers' game to lose.

The Titans don’t have a receiver in the TOP 40—so you figure it out.

Then again, don’t discount the immaturity of the Chargers players. That immaturity cost them against the Pats last year.

Shawne Merriman will be looking for revenge after accusing Jeff Fisher of ordering his players to take him out in a game three weeks ago. If Merriman can’t control his emotions, the Chargers will have another disappointing playoff exit.

These teams went to overtime in their first meeting.

Against the Spread Pick: Tennessee

Cowboys-Redskins: Skinned Alive

Adnan Tezer — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 04:02:59 -0500

It isn’t often that I agree with ANYTHING Roy Williams says, but he summed up this debacle perfectly.

“We didn’t even show up on the field, point blank,” Williams said. “We showed up physically, but mentally and everything else, we weren’t there.”

The Dallas Cowboys, who had nothing to play for Sunday, got steamrolled 27-6 by the Washington Redskins, who DID have something to play for, in front of a wet and fired-up FedEx Field crowd.

By winning the game, the Redskins qualified for the final playoff spot in the NFC. Quite honestly, this was the most uninspired game the Cowboys have played since they sleepwalked through the 2005 season finale against the Rams, before which the Cowboys had discovered that their slim playoff hopes had disintegrated.

That game too was “meaningless.”

Yes the starters only played a half and a series, but there was no excuse for this garbage. The rain caused problems for Tony Romo in his limited playing time, as he couldn’t throw the wet ball well with grip gloves.

Romo finished with 86 yards on 7-16 passing with one INT and no TDs.

Brad Johnson got off his rocker and played the majority of the second half, finishing with 79 yards on 7-11 passing with no TDs and no INTs.

The running game was NULL AND VOID. How many yards on the ground? Try ONE.

ONE YARD ON THE GROUND.

Granted, there was no Terrell Owens, no Terrence Newman, no Andre Gurode, and no Jay Ratliff. Owens and Newman are two of the five most important players on the team. So to say that the Cowboys didn’t have their full complement of players is stating the obvious.

The Cowboys offense without T.O is COMPLETELY different than when he's in there.

For the fourth week in a row, the O looked sluggish, gaining a season-low 146 yards. They were 0-11 on third downs and managed just two Nick Folk field goals.

That said, one can’t judge this team on this performance, as this was an offense with no adrenaline facing a Redskins defense that was out for blood.

Todd Collins continued his hot play for the Redskins, finishing with 244 yards on 22-31 passing with one TD and no INTs. The Dallas defense’s 19-game streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher ended, as Clinton Portis finished with 104 yards and two TDs on 25 carries.

The Redskins dominated the game from beginning to end. even with the limited Dallas starters in the game.

I know that there are those who will say that this is an overreaction—and I pray to God that they're right.

Many have said to enjoy a great season and not to worry over the next two weeks as the Cowboys are still considered the team to beat in the NFC. I'll be the happiest person alive if I’m wrong about this.

Yes, the Cowboys finished the regular season at 13-3 and have home field throughout the NFC playoffs, which is beyond what any rational fan could have possibly dreamed of. The Redskins played like a team in the playoffs, which is what this game was to them. They had to win. The Cowboys didn’t.

But this game chilled me as I watched the Cowboys come out with NO PASSION and NO EMOTION. This raises some serious questions—not just about the Cowboys offense, which has gone in the tank in December, but about the team itself.

Again, it must be emphasized that there was nothing to gain for the Cowboys here, but to throw out such a listless, gutless performance is troubling—especially against your most hated rival and divisional opponent.

The Cowboys as a team are playing their worst football at the most important time, a common theme for this team the last few years. Their offense has managed just 32 points in their last three games. They were lucky to beat Detroit earlier in the month, mailed in performances against the Eagles and Redskins, and barely escaped against a bad Carolina team.

With their first playoff game set for Sunday January 13th at Texas Stadium, this team has a lot of soul-searching to do over the next two weeks—and must not come out with this kind of shameful, embarrassing effort.

If they do, it will be another quick playoff exit for a franchise that hasn't won a playoff game in 11 seasons.

Then again, maybe I’m just being paranoid over a meaningless regular season game. It wouldn’t be the first time—and it sure as hell won’t be the last time.

Liver's Week 17 NFL Picks: Cowboys to Cover Against the Redskins

Adnan Tezer — Fri, 28 Dec 2007 02:45:25 -0500

Is there anything lousier than the last weekend of the NFL season?

Just about everything’s been wrapped up...and unfortunately even the games involving Wild Card teams trying to get in with a win (Dallas v. Washington and Tennessee v. Indy) involve division winners (Dallas and Indy) that will likely sit key players, as they have nothing to play for.

The result, of course, is that the Skins and Titans will likely have an easy time getting in—which no doubt infuriates football purists and the other teams chasing the final spots.

Not that the rest of the season's picks have been anything to write home about—but this could be the worst week of the year. None of these games will be worth much of a damn...except for the outrageous, drug-iduced, preseason-type spreads.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Bobby Petrino, Bud Selig, Roger Clemens, Tony Romo, Jessica Simpson, Roger Goodell, and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

This will be a nightmare weekend for everyone. If I even sniff .500, I'll call it a success.

Last week against the spread: 9-7

2007 record against the spread: 107-123-10

Saturday, December 29th

New England at N.Y. Giants (+14 1⁄2)

What a game this might have been. Unfortunately, New England’s perfect season will come cheaply against a Giants team that will be resting most of its players.

Why else do you think Giants fans are selling off their tickets?

This does bring up an interesting debate: Do the Giants owe it to themselves to rest their players...or should they fight to prevent 16-0?

Pick: Giants

Sunday, December 30th

Cincinnati at Miami (+3)

Yawn. Could this be the end of Marvin Lewis and Chad Johnson in Cincinnati?

Pick: Cincinnati

Jacksonville (+6 1⁄2) at Houston

I can’t wait to see Jacksonville in the playoffs. The Jags are playing ridiculously good football right now.

Pick: Jacksonville

Detroit (+3 1⁄2) at Green Bay

Dear Brett Favre,

Thank you for playing like crap when you needed to win.

With the way the Packers play in cold weather, maybe they DON’T want to play in Lambeau on January 20th. Then again, Brett is 0-9 at Texas Stadium.

There I go, thinking ahead. Dammit.

Pick: Green Bay

San Francisco (+10) at Cleveland

Poor Cleveland. They had their shot and they blew it.

Pick: Cleveland

New Orleans at Chicago (+2)

Dear Kyle Orton,

Thank you for that win against the Packers last weekend. Even with your "Duh" face, you managed to do a wonderful deed for the Cowboys.

Pick: Chicago

Buffalo (+7 1⁄2) at Philadelphia

See my S.F./Cleveland blurb and insert Buffalo for Cleveland.

Is this the last time Donovan McNabb throws for the Eagles?

Pick: Buffalo

Seattle (+3) at Atlanta

How the hell did Seattle lose to the Panthers two weeks ago?

Pick: Seattle

Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3)

For some reason, I want no part of Tampa Bay in the playoffs. Jeff Garcia has eaten the Cowboys alive in the past, and that defense is stout.

Pick: Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+3 1⁄2)

This could be the last time we see this Ravens team as it is. Probably a good thing.

Pick: Baltimore

Kansas City (+6) at N.Y. Jets

Watch Chad Pennington and Damon Huard in their last games for their respective teams.

Get me a drink...NOW!

Pick: Kansas City

San Diego at Oakland (+8)

What do you know—Lane Kiffin decides to take off the training wheels and start JaMarcus Russell.

Pick: Oakland

Minnesota at Denver (+3)

Minnesota had their chance but couldn’t beat the Pigs. Now they need help from the Cowboys...but it’s doubtful they’re going to get it.

Pick: Minnesota

St. Louis (+6) at Arizona

Good God. Make it a White Russian.

Pick: Arizona

Dallas (+9) at Washington

This is a tough one.

Part of me agrees that Wade Phillips should rest his players and not take a chance with a fluky injury. But something about the Pigs' getting into the playoffs with a win over Dallas makes me sicker than drinking booze off a bar mat.

The stakes for Washington make me wish that the Cowboys would play this game to win.

Phillips says the Cowboys will bring everything they have, and I like that mentality. Nothing's better than beating the Pigs—even if you have nothing to gain.

But Vegas obviously thinks that isn’t happening, so who the hell am I to question them?

Pick: Dallas

Tennessee at Indianapolis (+ 6 1⁄2)

Again, it’s tough for teams fighting for the last AFC playoff spot to watch Tennessee win by default, as the Colts will be sitting their starters.

I understand teams have the right to sit starters, but when the other team needs a win, you'd think that they should at least have to earn it.

But who am I to question anything or anybody? Got to hand it to the Amazing Vince. The Titans were dead in the water three weeks ago. With a win here, they’re in the playoffs.

Pick: Tennessee