Bleacher Report - Articles by Casey Greer

Justin Forsett's Coming Out Party Overdue as Seahawks' Season Expires

Casey Greer — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:18:57 -0500

As the Seahawks' Week 10 loss to the Arizona Cardinals came to an end, two significant aspects of their season may have ended also: the Seahawks' chances to contend in 2009, and Julius Jones’ apparent strangle-hold on the starting running back position.

With Julius Jones shelved with what appears to be a fairly serious set of complications following a broken rib, chances are we’ll see a lot more of Justin Forsett.

Forsett made the most of his first significant regular action, rushing for 123 yards on 17 carries with a touchdown, and also hauling in five receptions for 26 yards. Many thought that the diminutive second-year back would be an effective rusher, given his impressive preseason showing in 2008 that earned the former seventh-round pick a spot on the roster.

I’ve spent the last few weeks at bars, at work, or anywhere else where people want to talk Seahawks football (apart from Bleacher Report, as a fried hard drive has kept me off the keyboard as of late), explaining why Forsett was a better option than Jones and Edgerrin James.

And after two years of struggling to manufacture a running game from an anemic combination of Jones, T.J. Duckett, and James, perhaps the most valid remaining question is: What the hell took so long?

In all fairness, Forsett’s been only an average kick returner, and probably doesn’t profile as a “feature back” in the traditional sense of the term, but he’s more explosive than the latter trio, and deserves some time in the backfield.

Forsett had no carries in 2008, and was actually signed off of the team’s practice squad by the Indianapolis Colts, only to be cut and return to Seattle. Going into 2009, Forsett was slotted to be the third down back in a trio that included both James and Jones, and has been successful in that role. Though he’d only amassed 20 carries before Sunday’s game, but also caught 16 balls.

Several mock draft websites have some combination of C.J. Spiller and Jahvid Best being taken by Seattle with one of its two first round picks this offseason.

Spiller is a hyper-athetic back from Clemson, and fits the mold of several backs that have succeeded in a zone-blocking scheme. Similarly, Best is very athletic, and already plays in a zone-blocking scheme at the University of California.

On the surface, the drafting of either would make a ton of sense, but why rule out the present backup?

In Spiller and Best the team would essentially be drafting running backs in the same mold as Forsett, albeit at a much higher price tag. In Best, however, they’d be drafting a running back coming off a concussion, who has been less productive in the same college system.

The zone-blocking scheme, like all successful schemes in professional football, allows for imperfection at a position. That means that a team can be lacking in elite talent at the position, but still manage to produce. In this case, much like rush linebackers in blitz-heavy 3-4 schemes, zone blocking schemes don’t require elite talent at the running back position.

With that comes a reduced cost at the position. The Seahawks should be able to draft players with specific skill sets, rather than complete skill sets, in order to maintain production at the position. Then, when the player in question comes to the end of his rookie contract, he’s either traded (like Clinton Portis), or released (like Selvin Young).

The shelf lives of running backs are probably the shortest of any position in the NFL. So a rookie contract, especially one signed by a first round draftee (normally 4-6 years), typically ends at the downside of a running back’s career.

The Seahawks' season—or at least the part of their season during which they had a realistic shot at contending for a division title—is likely over. And while it’s unfortunate that Jones' career with the Seahawks could end as a result of an injury, it’s probably better for the team.

The 'Hawks need a plan going into 2010, and they need to establish future players at several positions on their offense. At the absolute least, if Forsett implodes over the next seven weeks, the Seahawks will have a better idea of what they need at the position going into the draft.

Sam Bradford Could be a Bargain for the Seahawks in 2010 Offseason

Casey Greer — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 19:55:52 -0400

Though the Seahawks will have Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, and presumably Mike Teel on the roster at the quarterback position, it has been widely speculated that the team will use a high pick next year to grab a quarterback.

The team has struggled in the last two seasons with Seneca Wallace under center in Hasselbeck’s extended absences, and a few weeks ago, I called for the team to sign Jeff Garcia to be the backup to Hasselbeck.

But next year, it’s possible that Jake Locker, Colt McCoy, Jimmy Clausen, and Jevan Snead could make up the top tier of quarterbacks available in the draft, and with two first round picks, the Seahawks are in excellent position to take a stab at one of those guys in the first round.

However, Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford, who has recently seen his draft stock plummet as a result of two shoulder injuries, may be a suitable bargain for the team.

Quarterbacks taken at the top of the draft are paid at an astronomical level. Matt Stafford received a six-year, $72 million contract before playing a snap in the NFL.

For some perspective, the extension that Hasselbeck signed in 2005 was worth $47 million of six years.

With uncertainty in labor talks, it’s been speculated that in 2011 there will be a salary slotting system for draftees, making top picks, especially mistakes at the top of the first round more affordable.

But the Seahawks may need to act in an uncapped year.

Bradford will undergo surgery on his shoulder, which he sprained in the season opener against BYU, and re-aggravated the injury in his return against the Texas Longhorns. However, he’s already stated that barring a setback in the rehabilitation of his shoulder, he’ll be entering the NFL draft.

With four quarterbacks potentially slotted ahead of Bradford, there’s a distinct possibility that the signal-caller falls to the beginning of the second round, or the back of the first round, where the Seahawks will likely hold two picks (Denver’s first-rounder and Seattle’s natural second-rounder).

Pat White was the only quarterback taken in the second round of the 2009 draft. He signed a four-year deal worth $4.5 million with $2.5 million in guarantees, a far cry from Stafford’s monstrous contract.

Bradford’s mobility, accurate arm, and adequate size make him an ideal fit for the West Coast offense. However, he’s been criticized for putting up numbers behind one of college football’s best offensive lines, which protected him very well in 2008.

Doubters undoubtedly didn’t see anything in 2009 that make them believe that Bradford can deal with pressure in the pocket; rather, it's quite the opposite. Bradford will have to learn to keep himself out of harm’s way, especially in an offense which relies on a quarterback’s mobility within the pocket as essentially an extra blocker.

But with Hasselbeck under center in 2010, Bradford would be allowed the luxury of spending an entire year on the sidelines, being mentored by Hasselbeck, who was once a quarterback in need of tutelage himself.

In recent years, some quarterbacks have slid in drafts to positions much lower than they expected to be drafted. Unfortunately for the drafting team, without a slotting system they’ve had to pay a contract somewhere between the going rate at the position they were drafted, and the rate at the higher position they expected to be drafted at.

Brady Quinn signed a five-year, $9.25 million contract, but the contract included large performance-based escalators, which appear less likely to be reached upon his benching, but could have made the contract worth close to $30 million.

Coming off of a shoulder injury though, the Seahawks may be able to get creative with the language in the contract in order to minimize the risk of signing Bradford.

All things considered, it would be a major coup for the Seahawks to be able to draft a player in the second round that went into the season as the consensus top quarterback available.

Kenji Johjima's Exit Opens Many Doors For Seattle Mariners

Casey Greer — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 07:14:03 -0400

When Kenji Johjima opted out of his contract, it was very obvious that the Mariners had ultimately experienced addition by subtraction.

Johjima is a good teammate by most accounts, though his pitchers were frustrated by his pitch selection approach behind the plate. He was also a pretty good offensive player, though he’d regressed considerably in the past two seasons.

But by losing the weight of Johjima’s two years and $16 million, the team has more financial freedom than they had just last week. They can now likely go out and replace Johjima’s 2008 salary with Russell Branyan, and be in the same position as they were two days ago in terms of 2010 salary commitments, but with the slugger on board.

Also, presuming Johjima doesn’t have a burning fire in his heart to destroy the Mariners, he may be one of the best ambassadors the team could ask for in Japan. Johjima was a much-celebrated star in Japan, and while he didn’t achieve the same stardom in the United States, an amicable exit should speak volumes in terms of the Mariners standing among Japanese free agents.

Since Johjima came to the United States the Mariners have been mentioned as serious candidates for top Japanese free agents like Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kosuke Fukudome, and Hiroki Kuroda. They’ve lost out on each of those free agents, though it is unclear perhaps if they lost out as a result of lack of interest or if finances and team interest played a larger role.

If it was a result of lack of interest, Johjima may be able to woo some free agents west upon their departure from Japan.

Yu Darvish is primed to be the top free agent to come to the Major Leagues since Matsuzaka. Though he’s battled shoulder and back pain throughout the 2009 season with the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, and is in no hurry to come to the United States, if he does he’ll still probably surpass Matsuzaka’s $100-plus million commitment for five years of service.

Even if the Darvish idea is far-fetched, and Branyan chooses to leave for more money or a change of scenery, the Mariners have a lot of financial flexibility moving forward.

The team may be looking for a longer term solution at both shortstop and third base, where Jack Wilson, Jack Hannahan, and Bill Hall could spend time next year (assuming Wilson’s option is exercised). But with their added flexibility, the team may be able to make a run at Chone Figgins, who can play just about any position besides pitcher and catcher.

Figgins figures to cash in a long term deal, though, and perhaps he’s too expensive for the Mariners taste.

When Jeff Clement was pulled from the lineup Mariner blogs started buzzing about a possible trade for Tampa Bay Rays farmhand Reid Brignac. Brignac is a left-handed hitting shortstop with an impressive frame, improving defensive skills and power potential. Most importantly, Brignac will likely be able to stick at shortstop for a half-dozen years or so.

But shortstops like that don’t grow on trees, nor are they acquired at bargain price tags.

The Rays face some tough financial decisions this offseason. Most notably, the team is likely looking to move the $9 million salary that is owed to Pat Burrell in 2010, to the point that they’ve reportedly discussed a swap of Burrell for trouble Cubs outfielder Milton Bradley.

They’ve also got a log-jam in the infield. Between Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist, the team may have struck gold on two late-20s players for their middle-infield. Evan Longoria, perhaps the team’s best offensive player, is well-rooted at third base, where he excels both with the bat and the glove.

And while a trade that included Carlos Pena, the Rays first baseman, who makes $10.25 million in 2010 would be more favorable than one with Burrell, it would be far less likely.

With Brignac on board, it may negate any need to retain Wilson, which would again save the team nearly $8 million. So realistically, if a trade like that occurred, the Mariners could have improved their offense at shortstop without sacrificing a ton of defense, while bringing on Burrell, who struggled to adjust to the American league last season after spending the rest of his career playing for the Philadelphia Phillies. If Burrell was even an equal to Ken Griffey Jr. or Mike Sweeney, he’d be an essential wash in terms of salary when paired with Brignac.

Brignac may be worth more in the trade market than the Mariners are willing to spend. He’s got very little major league service time, which means he’ll be under team control for quite a while, something which has gained value in recent years.

There are other, less expensive options that could improve the Mariners though.

There was speculation that the Mariners would trade for J.J. Hardy last year, the Brewers defensively-gifted shortstop. Hardy was amidst a down year, and his heir apparent Alcides Escobar figured to take his spot if Hardy was traded. The Brewers sought pitching in return, and after falling out of contention before the trade deadline, talks calmed down considerably. But there has been speculation that Hardy could be moved this offseason.

Unlike Brignac, Hardy is only under team control for one more season, and would probably be traded in conjunction with signing a contract extension.

Another option is Felix Pie. While fans may like to see Michael Saunders be given a chance to start in left field, Pie may be a better option now and moving forward. Pie is the fourth outfielder in Baltimore, an outfield which already forced Luke Scott into the designated hitter position.

Pie doesn’t figure to beat out Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, or Nick Markakis for an outfield spot, and unless the team chooses to move Scott to first base in the wake of a potential Aubrey Huff departure, Pie probably won’t be the team’s designated hitter.

The Orioles have flirted with a trade that involved Brian Roberts for some time now. Roberts is entering the second year of a four-year, $40 million contract and apart from an club option with a $1 million buyout for Melvin Mora, is the team’s only long-term commitment to a player over 30 years old.

Pie posted a .266/.326/.437 line last year in 281 plate appearances, and a 15.6 UZR/150 in left field and a 5.6 UZR/150 in center field.

Pie is under team control through 2013.

Regardless of how they use the flexibility, the Mariners caught a huge break when Johjima left, and added another dimension to what should be an exciting offseason.

Hasselbeck/Garcia '09: Seattle Seahawks Should Sign the Veteran QB

Casey Greer — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 07:46:59 -0400

When Matt Hasselbeck returned from injury on Sunday the Seahawks offense was markedly better. Hasselbeck didn’t throw an exorbitant amount of passes for a ton of yards, though he threw four touchdowns.

But the offense looked crisp.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh showed why the team broke the bank to bring him in. Finally, for the first time since Joe Jurevicius last stepped on the field turf at Qwest Field, the team has a physical receiver, and with Hasselbeck under center they have someone who knows how to capitalize on his physicality.

But truthfully, the thing I noticed most watching Hasselbeck on Sunday wasn’t actually related to what happened on the field that day, but rather what didn’t.

Seneca Wallace didn’t start, and after two weeks of Wallace, which preceded a near-healthy Hasselbeck start, one thing was blatantly obvious: Wallace is not an NFL-caliber quarterback.

Wallace is a product of the Mike Holmgren era. Holmgren was notoriously loyal to his draftees—Koren Robinson ring a bell? But his loyalty to Wallace was baffling. Wallace didn’t show the arm strength or accuracy to succeed in anything but a pared down version of Holmgren’s offense, and at his best, his legs could make up for an offensive line that has spent a large portion of the past three years undermanned or injured.

Holmgren was as devout a West Coast offense (WCO) purveyor as there was this side of Andy Reid. The offense values mobility (not scrambling ability), as it allows the quarterback to buy back some of the time that a sub-par offensive line will sell and make a quick throw.

Last year it was tough to distinguish ability between Wallace and Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck was dinged up and had the worst season of his career, barely completing half of his passes (52.2 percent), throwing two interceptions for every touchdown (10 INTs./5 TDs.), and averaging a sub-pedestrian 5.8 yards per pass attempt.

In his absence, Wallace improved on Hasselbeck’s numbers. He completed 58.3 percent of his passes, threw 11 touchdowns compared to three interceptions, and averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Wallace’s higher completion percentage is very much responsible for numbers that looked a lot better, as the diminutive quarterback averaged only 10.9 yards per completion, compared to 11.2 yards per completion from Hasselbeck.

Reality is a harsh pill to swallow. Holmgren swore by Wallace as his backup, but Holmgren’s playing golf right now (or so I assume, a golf course seems like the best place for the legendary coach to keep his yelling voice and red face intact).

I’m tired of phrases like “quarterback of the future,” or “project quarterback.” Wallace is almost 30 years old, he’s losing athleticism, and he’s still the same under-6'0", weak-armed signal caller he was when he came out of college.

Most of all, I hate the word grooming.

Wallace isn’t the past, present, or future of the Seahawks quarterback position. At least not a good Seahawks team, as we’ve seen the past two seasons.

The Seahawks have teased fans with the occasional snap where Wallace lines up wide. His versatility is almost unmatched, and at the very least he keeps defenses honest.

However, the sixth week of the season is a really bad time to realize that a backup quarterback isn’t up to par.

Enter Jeff Garcia.

Garcia would make a ton of sense in any other season, but Garcia made two Pro Bowls under Knapp when the two were in San Francisco.

And now, if he were to find the field at some point, he’d be doing so without the destructive presence of Terrell Owens in the huddle.

Matt Hasselbeck has struggled to stay healthy, and while rib and knee injuries are concerning, they’re also reparable. However injuries to his back mean that his future could be defined by its brevity if he takes another big hit, and with Walter Jones on the sidelines, and the team shuffling lineman around for the second straight season, the team needs a backup plan.

The NFC West is within reach, as per usual. But the team will not win it with Wallace under center, and it would be unwise to count on Hasselbeck, who is still sporting a broken rib underneath extra padding, to play the rest of the schedule.

It’s not often that a team can add a quarterback who is highly familiar with their offense, with postseason experience, and remaining productivity this late in the season.

Garcia would likely come cheap, after being cut twice in a matter of months. The Seahawks would be fools to move forward without Garcia.

Ugly Truth: The Reality of a Felix Hernandez Extension

Casey Greer — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 06:51:02 -0400

For many Mariners fans, signing Felix Hernandez to a contract extension is the top priority of the 2009 off-season. Hernandez figures to receive a large raise in arbitration, and he will be free to become a free agent following the 2011 off-season.

While he’s undoubtedly one of baseball’s most promising young pitchers, and a strong 2009 campaign, which has him in the hunt for the Cy Young award, has established him as a proverbial “legitimate ace,” it could ultimately be in the team’s best interest to part ways with the 23-year-old flame thrower.

While pitchers, especially power pitchers, are a volatile commodity, they are something of a necessity for success.

Especially in a post-season setting, a starting pitcher represents perhaps the greatest individual influence on a team’s victory in a single game of any position in sports.

But recent history indicates that there may be a limit to the salary that should be allocated to a player that only influences a little more than 20 percent of team games, and an even lower percentage of exclusively defensive innings.

Hernandez figures to sign an extension of unprecedented proportions. There hasn’t been a pitcher with a similar pedigree, at a similar age, with similar talent who became a free agent.

Last off-season, CC Sabathia cashed in on the largest long-term contract ever given to a pitcher. Sabathia’s contract totaled seven years and $161 million.

It paid him $14 million this year in salary, and a $9 million signing bonus, totaling $23 million and will pay him $23 million annually for the remainder of the contract.

Using that as a guide, if Hernandez reaches free agency without an extension, combined with his age, he could very conceivably be looking at a contract that pays him over $25 million per season, perhaps longer than Sabathia’s contract.

Dave Cameron of USS Mariner and Fangraphs wrote an interesting piece describing a discount the Mariners may receive in signing Hernandez this off-season, offering financial security for Hernandez by buying out his arbitration years and taking away any risk of Hernandez losing money following an injury.

While that sounds great, the operative word is injury. Pitchers get injured frequently by nature, and a long-term contract could mean that the Mariners must assume responsibility for an injured Hernandez for several seasons.

Cameron’s work, and other work at websites like Fangraphs are at the forefront of the evolution and mainstream exposure of sabermetrics and statistical analysis.

Among those is a dollar value based on a players statistics which contribute to statistics like “runs above replacement level,” and “wins above replacement level players.”

This year there are 11 pitchers who have been worth more than $25 million so far this year, there were eight last year, four in 2007, two in 2006, one in 2005, one in 2004, none in 2003, and one in 2002.

Those eight years represent a reasonable expectation for the length of a Hernandez extension, and also conveniently coincide with the first year where dollar value is available on Fangraphs.

It is worth noting that the stats are based on annual league-wide salary figures compared to wins, and as salaries increase league-wide, wins, and especially wins above replacement level, become more expensive and thus more valuable.

However, the more accurate, economically unbiased statistic would be wins above replacement level (WAR). Ubaldo Jimenez is the last of the players who are $25 million or more this season, worth exactly $25 million to this point, sporting 5.6 WAR. That divides down to about a $4.5 million value per WAR.

Setting the baseline at 5.6 WAR, there will be increased pitchers above the threshold for value, as WAR is unaffected by league wide salaries.

However, considering the frugal off-season the league experienced last off-season and the league getting closer to the end of the monster contracts that littered the late 90’s and early 2000’s, it’s actually possible that the value of a single WAR could stay pretty steady.

The objective of signing a player to a long-term deal is that he’ll ultimately produce year-to-year contributions that exceed the value of the contract paid as the value of contracts rise.

There were eight players who accrued 5.6 or more WAR last year: CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Ervin Santana, and A.J. Burnett.

None of those players played on a World Series team. Only Sabathia and Santana played on playoff teams, the Brewers and Angels respectively, each of whom suffered a first-round exit from the post-season.

The duo made $11 million and $420,000 respectively last season.

2007: Sabathia (2), Webb (2), Halladay (2), Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, Joe Blanton and John Lackey.

Beckett played for the 2007 World Series Champs, the Boston Red Sox, while Webb, Sabathia and Lackey all played on postseason teams.

Beckett made $6.7 million, Webb made $4.5 million, Sabathia made $8.8 million, and Lackey made $5.8 million.

2006: Halladay (3), Webb (3), Lackey (2), Johan Santana, Jeremy Bonderman, John Smoltz, and Roy Oswalt.

Bonderman played for the A.L. champion Detroit Tigers, Santana for the first-round-losing Twins, and none of the others played for playoff teams.

Santana made $8.75 million and Bonderman made $2.3 million.

2005: Lackey (3), Santana (2), Oswalt (2), Chris Carpenter, Mark Buehrle, Dontrelle Willis, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, and Andy Pettitte.

Buehrle played for the World Series Champion Chicago White Sox, Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt played for their opponent, the Houston Astros.

Lackey and Carpenter played for playoff teams, the Angels and Cardinals respectively. Martinez, Santana and Willis all missed the playoffs.

Buehrle made $6 million. Clemens made $18 million, Pettitte made $8.5 million, and Oswalt made $5.9 million. Lackey made league minimum, $440,000, and Carpenter made $2 million.

2004: Santana (3), Clemens (2), Martinez (2), Oswalt (2), Randy Johnson, Ben Sheets, Curt Schilling, Jason Schmidt, and Brad Radke.

Schilling and Martinez played for the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. Clemens and Oswalt made the playoffs with the Astros. Santana and Radke played in the post-season with the Twins.

Schilling made $12 million, Martinez made $17.5 million. Clemens made $5 million, Oswalt made $3.3 million. Santana made $1.6 million, Radke made $10.8 million.

2003: Halladay (4), Martinez (3), Schilling (2), Schmidt (2), Mark Prior, Esteban Loaiza, Mike Mussina, Tim Hudson, Javier Vasquez, and Kevin Brown.

Mussina pitched for the American League Champion Yankees. Martinez became the catalyst for Grady Little’s firing in Boston that post-season.

Schmidt played in the post-season with the Giants. Hudson pitched the A’s to the post-season. Prior pitched the Cubs to another chapter in the team’s curse.

Mussina made $12 million in 2003. Martinez made $15.5 million. Schmidt made $5.9 million. Hudson made $1.6 million. Prior made $1.5 million.

2002: Halladay (5), Oswalt (3), Schilling (3), Martinez (3), Johnson (2), and Derek Lowe.

Of this group, only Johnson and Schilling pitched in the postseason, both for the Diamondbacks, a first-round loss.

Johnson made $13.4 million and Schilling made $10 million again.

There are a variety of single appearance pitchers, and also a handful who made it multiple times.

However, among the multiple appearances there are five pitchers (Webb, Santana, Martinez, Oswalt, and Lackey) who have since suffered career-threatening or altering injuries in the middle of their prime.

That doesn’t include Mark Prior, whose shoulder has become exhibit A for scapula-loading mechanics and their perils, or Ben Sheets, who remains a free agent.

It also doesn’t include Chris Carpenter, who only appeared once, but will appear again this year, and has had his best seasons since recovering from reconstructive elbow surgery.

Three pitchers (Clemens, Pettitte, and Brown) were implicated in the Mitchell Report.

There were five teams possessing pitchers who accrued 5.6 or more WAR in a season and appeared in the World Series.

Both Boston and New York account for significantly different economic settings than the one the Mariners are in, and they can afford to overpay for WAR, and thus afford the inherent risk in large contracts given to pitchers.

The Tigers, White Sox, and Astros got to their World Series in very different ways in terms of pitcher acquisition.

The Tigers traded for Jeremy Bonderman early in his career. The White Sox drafted Mark Buehrle.

But while the Astros drafted Roy Oswalt, they bought their appearance with high-dollar signings of Clemens and Pettitte. The team has since experienced extreme financial problems.

Perhaps the best-case scenario for individual performance would be if Hernandez pitched as consistently as Roy Halladay, who is amidst his sixth season of the past eight with 5.6 WAR or greater.

However, despite a reasonable salary compared to production, Halladay’s salary represents a very large portion of the Blue Jays non-Vernon Wells and formerly non-Alex Rios salary.

Huge payrolls like those of the Yankees and Red Sox represent a disproportionate amount of the value assigned to WAR, and the teams have financial resources that aren’t available to many other teams.

Halladay’s a hell of a pitcher, no doubt, but not trading him at this year’s deadline is nothing short of disastrous. The last eight years have been a transition from a steroid-laden era to one less fraught with PEDs. The result has been that pitchers who earn high WAR have become less necessary to building a championship team.

The Blue Jays are probably the best economic parallel to the Mariners that exists. Both teams face significant challenges based on geography.

The Mariners are in the relative “middle of nowhere,” while the Blue Jays location, Canada, gives them tax hurdles when signing or re-signing free agents.

There was an offer reportedly made to the Mariners that would have sent Clay Buchholz and Adrian Gonzalez to Seattle, with the Mariners trading Hernandez to Boston and Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont, and Carlos Triunfel to the Padres.

Buchholz has been a 1.7 WAR pitcher this season, Gonzalez a 6.1 WAR first baseman. Hernandez has pitched his way to 6.5 WAR this season, while Morrow has pitched to -0.1 WAR, and Aumont and Triunfel are both prospects with question marks and a less than ideal fit in the philosophy of the present regime.

Morrow is under team control until 2012, Hernandez until 2011.

Conversely, Buchholz is under team control until 2013, and figures to improve on his modest WAR, while Gonzalez is under contract until 2011 with the final year being a team option at $5.5 million, far less than Hernandez figures to receive in the final year of team control via arbitration.

Gonzalez is the ultimate fit for Safeco Field. He fields pretty well, but has a power left-handed bat, strikes out about at the league average, and walks almost two percent more often than league average.

The team would have acquired a net gain in terms of WAR, and ultimately two players whose future trade values could have a ceiling just below that of Hernandez.

That however, only deals in the literal, Major League talent realm. The Red Sox also reportedly made a list of eight of their top prospects and told the Mariners to pick any five to make a deal work.

By not trading Halladay this season, a year and a half removed from his free agency, they’ve likely cut his trade value in half.

The Mariners could do the same if they don’t move quickly on Hernandez.

If they can keep him at a reasonable price, the Mariners should absolutely extend Hernandez, but it seems more likely they’ll have to break the bank.

In today’s economic climate, “breaking the bank” has become less a proverbial figure of speech, rather a more literal prophecy complete with subprime mortgages and rehab loans.

Brandon Morrow Should Be in the Seattle Mariners Bullpen

Casey Greer — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 05:21:14 -0400

Brandon Morrow should be kept around in the 2009 MLB off-season to be groomed as the team’s future closer.

Morrow has been the subject of fan dismay for the past few seasons. After being drafted a handful of spots ahead of 2008 Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, then bouncing between the bullpen and the starting rotation—by both his own and the front office’s volition—he’s become a target for frustration.

I even wrote an article early in the season, claiming that he’d started his own clock on his departure upon re-joining the bullpen.

That still stands true.

Blogs and traditional journalism outlets have called for an off-season trade. Morrow may still have value disproportionate to the results he’s produced, based solely on his immense physical talent.

Morrow sports a mid-90s fastball, and developing off-speed pitches. Though he’s exiting his traditional prospect years, baseball traditionalists will note that most pitchers don’t reach their athletic prime until their late-20s or even their early-30s in some cases.

But it would be a huge mistake if the Mariners traded him this off-season for something comparable to his present value.

The mishandling of Morrow is something that has not gone understated, but is perhaps underestimated.

I’m not a proponent for the closer position. I think that the undue pressure is put on single players at the end of the game, and that the most important outs of a game are quite frequently before the final inning.

Baseball has become a game of specialization and if the ninth inning is considered the most important, it seems hypocritical to leave swap pitchers for handedness match-ups in earlier innings, but to remain a slave to convention come the end of the game.

But the Mariners are running out of time to maximize Morrow’s value.

I also don’t buy into the idea of a closer needing a “special mentality.” But while I think that the “special mentality” is an overvalued asset, I respect its existence.

I also recognize that my opinion doesn’t matter, and that the value of a position is dictated by the market.

The same market netted the Mariners Franklin Gutierrez among other players this off-season, when the team traded J.J. Putz and others to the New York Mets in a three-team deal that also involved the Cleveland Indians.

Morrow has struggled in an attempted conversion to a starter, but there is reason to believe that he could return to form in the bullpen.

The team has David Aardsma in the closer role presently, and in 2008 they drafted Joshua Fields, the top reliever in the 2008 draft, a closer from the University of Georgia.

Aardsma should be a great example of the randomness of “creating” a closer. Typically great closers are failed starting pitchers: Dennis Eckersley, John Smoltz, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, and Eric Gagne come to mind.

As starters, in the latter three would have had very little value on the free agent or trade market, but as closers they were or are extremely valuable.

But Aardsma is going to become more expensive soon, and if he can reel off another season or two of solid relief work, he could be very valuable in a trade.

As Morrow approaches his arbitration years, the team could conceivably risk repeating the situation that the Mariners were in when Joel Pineiro entered the 2006 off-season recovering from an elbow injury.

Pineiro, amidst his arbitration years, was non-tendered, as he’d reached such a level of compensation that the team couldn’t justify keeping him considering the obvious risk for re-injury, delayed rehab, or decreased effectiveness.

The team was ultimately right, but it marked the third of a trio of formerly untouchable prospects: Pineiro, Gil Meche, and Ryan Anderson who would ultimately see their Mariners careers reduced in some way due to injury.

The logic, at least in the case of Morrow, is that while two years ago his value may have been at its peak, that doesn’t mean it can’t rise from the valley it is in.

And ultimately the potential return on Morrow, even if he leaves with no compensation, is probably more valuable than any prospect he’d be traded for right now.

If all goes well, he’d eventually be replaced by Joshua Fields, as the Mariners continue to cycle through relief pitchers, exploiting a flaw in the market valuation of closers.

Hyperize or Conspire: Is Kevin Durant Sending Seattle a Message in New Nike Ad?

Casey Greer — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 08:24:15 -0400

Unresolved bitterness? Check.

Misplaced anger? Check.

Hope for the future? Fading.

Those are the symptoms of the basketball-neglected former-Seattle-Sonics fans. I have all of them; however, I couldn’t help but notice a few things in a recent Nike commercial that caught my eye.

First, the commercial features two former Sonics stars: Rashard Lewis and Kevin Durant. The two both played portions of their amateur ball in Texas, so perhaps they know each other, but maybe there is more to this.

Is Nike taunting Sonics fans?

It’s possible, but unlikely. However, what went under-spoken during a year of turmoil in the stomachs of fans, in arbitration hearings, and in Olympia, the state’s capitol, is that perhaps Durant wasn’t so excited to see two All-Star caliber veterans traded upon his arrival.

Lewis and Durant could have been a dynamic (albeit redundant) duo, but General Manager Sam Presti opted to let Lewis walk. He’d later trade Ray Allen, effectively cutting the legs out from under any potential playoff hopes the team might have had with the addition for Durant.

Maybe Durant wasn't all that stoked to head to Oklahoma City. Maybe he wasn't excited about the way it happened, and that his name would be forever associated with a traitorous franchise.

Maybe Durant liked Seattle. He does still own a home here.

Put on your tin foil hat and take a look at the video.

At 0:59, Durant appears, sitting on the rim of a basketball hoop, sporting a curiously green jersey.

The video cuts away, and just before it returns to Durant, we hear him rapping. Then something even more curious happens, Durant’s rap alias “Velvet Hoop” is displayed—over his jersey—in gold.

For the first time in over a year, Durant’s name, however unofficial, in gold, has been placed on a green jersey.

In fact, every other player in the commercial has their rap name displayed in white.

About 1:06, Durant—erm—Hoop raps “What’s the temperature Sam, 80 degrees.”

Best I can tell, the commercial filmed sometime between early and mid-July, and no later than July 22. There were two days before July 22, in Seattle, with temperature highs of 80 degrees. If one allows room for artistic license, Seattle spent most of the beginning of July in the high-70s and low-80s.

Oklahoma City by contrast, spent most of the beginning of the month in the mid-high-90s or low 100s.

A subliminal message to Presti?

Maybe Durant isn’t just a capitalist, but loves the game of basketball. He certainly appreciates the city he was drafted into.

About 2:12 into the commercial, there's a scene of Durant sitting on a couch while Lewis raps.

Perhaps this is the Sonics equivalent to the scene in Happy Gilmore when we see Chubbs, his caddy, in heaven. He has his hand and he’s made peace with the alligator that took it.

The way things should have been.

Maybe Seattle will watch Durant play his home games in Seattle again.

Maybe I’m grasping at straws, just something to ponder on.

Check out more of Casey's work and more at 5th Quarter Sports

M's Offseason Targets | Willie Harris: The Budget Friendly Chone Figgins

Casey Greer — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 07:45:27 -0400

Mariners fans know Chone Figgins well. He’s a utility man on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, a guy the Mariners fans assume the team would have coveted this offseason, though the recent trade for Bill Hall seems to have calmed that notion.

Figgins is also a free agent at the end of the season.

The team now has three guys who can legitimately combine to back up any position on the field that isn’t catcher or pitcher: Hall, Ryan Langerhans and Jack Hannahan.

Each is pretty decent at one position at least. Both Hall and Hannahan figure to make up a righty-lefty platoon at third base next season, and each could feasibly cover shortstop or second base were an injury to occur. Likewise, Langerhans plays a solid outfield, and could play every day defensively at any position in the outfield.

That doesn’t mean, however, that Figgins, or rather another utility man is off the Mariners radar.

Unlike most utility guys, Figgins intrigue comes more from his offensive prowess than his defense. His defense is adequate, but far from great, but his value comes as a rare third baseman that leads off.

He also walks a lot, something not typically associated with slap-hitting leadoff hitters, or scrappy utility infielders. He’s walked 76 times this year, despite only 32 extra base hits.

But versatility with offensive prowess comes at a higher price tag as the league begins to shift into statistically driven scouting and personnel management.

Figgins will probably command something like a four year, $40 million contract in the offseason. He’ll be 32 years old, and has lost a step or two since stealing 62 bases, hitting 10 triples, and scoring 113 runs in 2005.

Also, the Angels may drive the price tag for Figgins up in order to keep him away from a division rival.

There is however, a cheaper option out there.

In many ways Willie Harris is the anti-Russell-Branyan. He’s six inches shorter than Branyan, and per questionable media guide listings on both players weights, Harris is 20 lbs lighter. Harris doesn’t possess a ton of power, while Branyan’s game is almost all power.

However, in terms of low-risk acquisitions that make a ton of sense, they may as well be twins.

Harris was once an anticipated prospect for the Orioles, but after 25 big league plate appearances, he was traded to the White Sox for Chris Singleton, who two years prior had finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting.

In Chicago he bounced around the field, playing multiple positions. He eventually bounced his way out of Chicago.

He signed as a free agent with Boston, where he played 47 games, mainly as a pinch hitter and defensive replacement, and after being designated for assignment mid-season, he found himself unemployed again.

The following offseason he signed with the Athletics, but before playing a game at the Major League level, he was traded to the Braves, oddly enough, for Ryan Langerhans.

He’d posted a .236/.306/.292 line to that point in his career.

And then things started to turn around.

Harris posted a .270/.349/.392 season in 2007, in 371 plate appearance, second-most in his career to that point. He started most of the year, and played the outfield almost exclusively.

The vast improvement wasn’t enough for a return invitation, but was good enough to get a look from the Washington Nationals, his fifth team.

In Washington he posted a .251/.344/.417 line in 2008, again starting most of his games. After hitting seven homeruns in parts of seven seasons, he hit 14 last year in 424 plate appearances.

Then this year, between acquisitions of Adam Dunn and later Nyjer Morgan, Harris was once again relegated to the bench. He’s posted a .218/.346/.355 line in 256 plate appearances this season, his worst statistical season in three years.

But in nearly half of his games (47 of 99), he’s entered the game as a substitute, typically a pinch hitter.

Harris has played six positions in his career. Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) proponents will notice that he’s got a positive or neutral rating at five of six positions. However, he’s played less than 100 innings at third base, shortstop, and in right field.

His only negative position, second base, is the position by which he originally made the big leagues. He’s posted a -1.3 UZR/150 there, compared to Jose Lopez’s 0.2 UZR/150, not a huge difference.

On offense however, Harris is pretty interesting.

For years Mariners fans, front office members, and media have been waiting for Lopez to “get it.” Well, since being designated for assignment by the Red Sox, it appears that Harris may have “gotten it.”

Since then he’s boosted his numbers to .251/.346/.396.

But in each season, not unlike most major leaguers, he’s performed much better as a starter than a substitute.

And even much of his disastrous 2009 can be attributed to bad luck.

Despite a .255 BABIP this season (league average is .298), he’s improved his line drive percentage, walk percentage, and strikeout percentage almost annually since being demoted.

He’s hitting offspeed pitches better, and has improved his home run percentage also.

But as Dave Cameron pointed out in a fascinating article about Jose Lopez earlier this week, not all homeruns are created equal.

The crux of the article is that while homeruns display the result of power, homerun distant is a better indicator of future power.

The article points out that Lopez hasn’t hit a homerun to the opposite field all season, or a homerun farther than 400 feet.

This is a chart of Harris’ 14 homeruns in 2008.

Notably, three of Harris’ homeruns traveled more than 400 feet, one was to left field, one to dead center, and a wider spread across the right field bleachers.

Conventional wisdom alone dictates that an everyday player should perform at a higher level than a pinch hitter.

Harris is no exception, but future return may actually be projectable for the average, non-SABR-headed fan.

American League splits this season (thus negating pitchers) show greater performance from starters compared to subs of approximate margins of: 15.6 percent for batting average, six percent for on base percentage, and 19 percent for slugging percentage.

Add in a generally unquantifiable, potential mental comfort that Harris may receive as a near everyday player as the lefty in a lefty-righty platoon (in this case at second base) and the team may see a significant offensive improvement. Lopez hits worse against righties than lefties, and has an offensive skillset that drastically contrasts the ballpark he plays in.

Guys who walk have become the equivalent to a “doubles hitter” in the 1990s or a “stolen base threat” in the 1980s.

Even in a rough 2009 season, Harris has walked 14.1 percent of his plate appearances, compared to 13.9 percent for Figgins, who is walking more frequently than ever before in his career, and 3.5 percent for Lopez, who is walking at nearly the lowest rate of his career.

Harris would have to come in a trade, but makes only $1.5 million next year, the final year of a two year, $3.5 million contract.

Lopez makes $2.3 million next year, and Figgins figures to make much more than that upon signing his first free agent contract.

He's not as young as Lopez, but he's exactly five months younger than Figgins.

Additionally, while the Mariners would have to trade to acquire Harris, they’d likely have to give up a prospect of less value than the first round pick they’d surrender signing Figgins, who is a type A free agent.

Seattle Mariners May Be Better Off Not Signing Dustin Ackley

Casey Greer — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 17:53:20 -0400

The Seattle Mariners have fallen victim to a recent Seattle trend, struggling to sign top pick Dustin Ackley.

Ackley, unquestionably the most polished college hitter in the 2009 draft, has asked for a bonus similar to that of Mark Teixeira, under the guidance of Scott Boras.

Boras is widely considered the most powerful agent in baseball. Despite a chink in his armor when Alex Rodriguez fired him, he represents each of the drafts top three picks: Stephen Strasburg, Dustin Ackley, and Donovan Tate respectively.

Tate, a high school outfielder picked by the San Diego Padres, are reported close to a $6.5 million deal.

But Ackley’s demands are going to be closer to $10 million.

The Mariners have apparently requested a physical from Ackley, which could make the article irrelevant come tomorrow’s deadline.

But I think that a compelling case could be made that the Mariners may benefit by not signing Ackley.

Corey Brock opined that Strasburg may ultimately end up a San Diego Padre, but the Mariners could ruin those plans.

Strasburg, perhaps the best pitching prospect in the history of the game, appears far apart in negotiations with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals reportedly offered Strasburg a record-setting contract, but little progress appears to have been made.

Strasburg and Boras came into the negotiation process asking for upwards of $50 million, citing the contract signed by Daisuke Matsuzaka upon his entry into Major League Baseball.

It appears more and more likely that Strasburg won’t sign with the Nationals. While the team will hold the top two picks in next years draft, assuming they continue their league-worst pace. However, according to MLB rules they must receive permission from a player they drafted in the previous draft in order to draft him again.

So if the Mariners don’t sign Ackley, they would receive either the second or third pick in next year’s draft. But if the Nationals held the top two picks the Mariners would find themselves in the situation they should have set themselves up for in 2008, in position to draft Strasburg.

But one in the hand is typically worth two in the bush, and if the Nationals sign Strasburg, with a possible top pick next year they could load up on a battery of “super-prospects,” as Bryce Harper, perhaps the best catching prospect ever, intends to enter next year’s draft.

So inherently, the Mariners run the risk entering next year’s draft, assuming they didn’t sign Ackley, with the second-overall selection and nobody to take. The Nationals, or whoever held the top pick, would be expected to take Harper, and it’s likely that Ackley wouldn’t grant the Mariners permission to draft him again.

So what exactly is Ackley to the Mariners?

Ackley played first base in college, but it is well documented that he likely profiles as a left fielder, center fielder, or to a far lesser extent a second baseman.

The Mariners presently have their top MLB-ready prospect, Michael Saunders, penciled into the lineup in left field. Franklin Gutierrez appears to be the team’s center fielder of the future, and Ichiro Suzuki is all but certain to remain in right field.

Barring an offseason trade of Saunders or Gutierrez, it’s likely that Ackley would have to either return to first if Russell Branyan or Ken Griffey Jr. left (in which case Branyan would likely DH) in the offseason, or wait it out in the minors.

That is a somewhat counterintuitive way to handle the team’s second-overall pick, taken in large part due to his potential to fast-track his way to the bigs.

A large portion of the Mariner faithful would like to see Ackley take over the full time starting job at second base. Comparisons to Chase Utley have been made, if Ackley were able to successfully transition to the middle infield, which may be as prohibitive as they are hyperbolic.

Jack Zduriencik has committed to defense, opting for Jack Hannahan, Jack Wilson, Ryan Langerhans and Josh Wilson as part and full time replacements at positions of need over the season. Why would his philosophy be any different at second base?

Zduriencik is on record as stating that the team views Ackley as an outfielder also.

Ackley profiles as a guy who has gap power, a solid hitting approach, and plus speed.

Presently accepted wisdom, perpetuated by statisticians, is that it is much easier and less expensive to turn a good hitter into a power hitter than a power hitter into a good hitter.

However, many of the same examples used as success stories (Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Larry Bigbie, etc.) have also been implicated as performance enhancing drug users.

As baseball takes measures to crawl out of the hole the Steroid Era dug for it, success stories like the aforementioned could be less frequent.

If Ackley doesn’t increase his power dramatically he probably tops out somewhere between Jacque Jones and Darin Erstad.

Solid contributors? Sure.

Can’t miss talents? I don’t think so.

Ackley was the second-overall pick as much by attrition as ability. He’s the product of a very middling draft class where somebody had to go second. He’s a very good prospect, but certainly not an irreplaceable talent.

A lot has been made of the draft pick compensation system in the past few years, and while the value of the two picks is frequently overstated, and baseball may have the least reliable draft among the three major American sports, the Mariners did also draft a shortstop, Nick Franklin, who figures to have gap power and a solid glove.

Ultimately, if Strasburg doesn’t sign, the Mariners would have the opportunity to evaluate him against polished hitters.

Strasburg would likely join an independent league, where many players, former pros included, end up because they can’t hit breaking balls. Strasburg won’t be able to live solely on his triple-digit heater, at least in theory.

If the Mariners are going to handout a double-digit signing bonus, why not wait, and do it for someone who deserves it according to historical precedent?

If Ackley signs, he should be welcomed with open arms, but if he doesn’t, it may ultimately be in the team’s best interest.

Seattle Mariners: The Doug Fister Experience

Casey Greer — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 09:13:41 -0400

When Doug Fister toed the rubber at Safeco Field, t-shirt makers, and to a lesser extent fans, were waiting in anticipation.

He pitched six innings, allowing a hit, four walks, and no runs. But who cares?

In the back of every mature, refined, sophisticated male’s brain remains at least a shred of our adolescence, specifically, the shred that used to chuckle internally during sex education.

For the last couple of days there has been an outpouring of puns and double entendres by Mariner fans.

It’s been a long time since a player received so much interest simply based on his name. Not even “The Hyphen” (aka Ryan Rowland-Smith) can top Fister’s tongue-in-cheek hype.

And the hype should be embraced.

Every baseball city has stars. Hell, even the hapless Pittsburgh Pirates have stars, though they seem to be changing area codes frequently lately (Go Andrew McCutchen!).

But great baseball cities have cult heroes.

I grew up a devout Mariners fan, and a passive Cubs fan. I also grew up in a time where most swearing was not broadcast on cable television, and a time when the Mariners traded for Tim Belcher.

And Seattle fans used to chant for Steve Scheffler, an awful center, at the end of Sonics blowouts, as his entry into the game assured its finality.

We have embraced the underdog before.

In 2004, a few months after I read Moneyball, the Mariners hired Bill Bavasi. I almost denounced the Mariners. I hadn’t bought memorabilia since then, until this year, when the Ken Griffey Jr. signing inspired repeal to my boycott.

Now FX allows the word “shit,” and the Mariners are trotting out a Fister.

And the Sonics and finality have a newer, gloomier relationship.

I never stopped buying memorabilia entirely. Rather, I replaced the teal next to my blue with red.

What I found is that at the very least, Cubs fans with t-shirt presses are more creative than Mariner fans.

There are shirts celebrating Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot, who combine as the “silent T’s.”

Theriot, whose name spells “The Riot” with proper—or improper punctuation—is a widely celebrated figure among north side t-shirt makers.

From Ron Santo to Carlos Zambrano, from Kosuke Fukudome to Derek Lee, from Lou Piniella to Harry Caray if they play their home games in Wrigley, chances are somebody has, or plans to make a shirt.

If they play their games for a National League Central Division rival, Cubs shirts may make news.

So what is available for Mariners fans?

When Griffey made his Safeco Field return in 2007 I scoured the Internet for a unique shirt.

I found a veritable catalog of Griffey jerseys, some female shirts from the 90’s that said Mrs. Griffey (not my style, not that there’s anything wrong with that), and a vintage “The Kid” shirt on eBay for nearly $100.

My fruitless search ended when I was unable to find a shirt of any kind that wasn’t some sort of officially licensed item.

I can see the shirt now, a silhouette of an umpire punching out a batter, No. 58 on the back with Fister above.

Or if you’re more of a realist, and understand that Fister’s heavy sinker (which feels dirty to type) is more of a contact-oriented, groundball-inducing pitch, perhaps the image of player swinging at a pitch on his hands with the slogan “You got Fistered” is more to your liking.

Regardless, this is all for naught if Fister isn’t a successful big leaguer.

While a recent trend has serious statistical analysis of minor league numbers as precursors for big league success or failure, Fister’s best projection may be unfairly quantified using those means.

Fister is a not a strikeout pitcher, but a control pitcher with a command pitcher ceiling. Think somewhere between Carlos Silva and Derek Lowe.

The Tacoma Rainiers, the Mariners' Triple A affiliate, have spent a large portion of the 2009 season fielding the professional baseball equivalent to a keg league softball defense.

Mike Carp is hardly a wizard of glove work at first base, and Mike Morse played more than 15 games at each of the other three infield positons.

Chris Shelton has played 65 games at third base in Tacoma, and committed 17 errors. All advanced metrics aside, one of every nine balls hit to Shelton at third has resulted in an error.

Even Brian Lahair, part of the Mariners remaining ensemble of low-ceiling, minor league, average-fielding-at-best 1b/DH’s has played 54 games in left field.

By contrast, the Mariners presently field perhaps the most formidable left-side of a defensive infield in baseball, with Jack Wilson and Adrian Beltre manning shortstop and third base respectively.

Baseball sense aside, Jack Zduriencik has made it clear that he’s in Seattle to win a championship. Lip service or not, that's pleasant to hear, but for now, I’d just settle for a t-shirt.

Hit the Road Jack: Jack Wilson Could Still Be On the Move

Casey Greer — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 07:46:38 -0400

The Mariners new shortstop Jack Wilson may not be in blue and teal for long, even though Friday’s non-waiver trade deadline passed.

Jon Heyman wrote a piece a few days ago about the players that may or may not make it through waivers before Aug. 31, the waiver trade deadline, but led with a very interesting notion; that this year’s July 31 deadline could have been the softest in baseball’s history.

Economic conditions have prevented teams from spending. The same conditions are responsible for some odd, clear salary-dump trades throughout the first two-thirds of the season. Those same conditions will likely lead to some very intriguing names being available in the coming weeks.

I was very critical of the trade for Wilson. I think that the team overpaid for Wilson, and put a disproportionate value on defense, all while shipping a solid defensive shortstop, though one with a worse bat, Ronny Cedeno, as part of the package.

While Jack Zduriencik has praised Wilson publicly, implicating Wilson’s future role with the team, in the same article I pointed out that he isn’t always upfront with his plans (scroll to the bottom).

The positive, and undoubtedly the reason that the Pirates were able to obtain so many players in exchange for Wilson and Snell, is that the team sent a little more than $3.3 million to the Mariners with the duo, meaning the Mariners only incur $800,000 in additional expenses.

When paired with the departure of $3.8 million in remaining salary in the Jarrod Washburn trade, from a financial standpoint, the deadline wasn’t too shabby.

But the distinction between expenses and debts is perhaps the most aspect of Wilson’s future, or lack thereof in Seattle.

A common misconception, if only for the ease of explanation, is that teams who receive salary supplementation as part of trade only owe a player a portion of his remaining salary.

In reality, the Mariners owe Wilson the rest of his salary, he won’t be receiving two paychecks. However, if all of the money acquired in the deal is thrown into the same pot, it is essentially allocated to pay Wilson’s contract.

When a waiver team claims a player placed on waivers, they claim him for his entire remaining contract. In Wilson’s case, they’d be claiming between $1.39 million and $2.23 million, depending on when he’s claimed.

That type of price tag on a mid-lease rental would be cause for pause in a normal year, and the perception league wide that this year’s deadline may produce trades of much more valuable make it even more likely that Wilson would go unclaimed on the waiver wire.

If Wilson is claimed on waivers, the Mariners may negotiate a trade with the team that claimed him, pull him back off of waivers, or let him leave with no compensation.

Though the latter option isn’t palatable, because the money received in the trade isn’t necessary allocated for Wilson’s contract, they could use it to further the stalled negotiations with Dustin Ackley.

If he clears waivers, the Mariners are free to discuss a trade with any team, provided the players the Mariners receive in return are not on the other team’s 40-man roster or have cleared waivers.

There is also very recent precedent for compensation that the Mariners may expect in exchange for the shortstop.

Last year the Toronto Blue Jays traded David Eckstein to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Aug. 31. In exchange, the Blue Jays received Chad Beck, a then 23-year-old Single-A righty who had bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation.

Eckstein, for all intents and purposes, is a poor man’s version of Wilson, in terms of trade value. He’s a near-equal hitter, though with less power. He’s a good defender, but not as good as Wilson.

He was also a year older than Wilson is now, and presuming the Mariners send a portion of the money they got in the Wilson trade along with the shortstop, Wilson may be less expensive.

The Red Sox inquired about Wilson while he was still a Pirate. However, with a less prohibitive cost, the Mariners may have more suitors.

I predict that the Tigers, Yankees, Rays, Mets, Brewers, and Angels may also be interested, as well as any team who suffers an injury at the shortstop position.

Perhaps I’m grasping at straws. But Zduriencik has proven to be something of a magician. He presents a content demeanor, but has made some very definitive, swift roster moves, and the Wilson trade notwithstanding, they make both future, statistical, and baseball sense.

He doesn’t leak much to the media, but that doesn’t stop anyone from speculating.

However, a deadline haul that includes two C-level prospects or a B-level prospect along with Luke French, Ian Snell, Mauricio Robles, Robert Manuel and theoretically over $6 million in financial relief, in exchange for Cedeno, Jeff Clement, Jarrod Washburn, Wladimir Balentien and three low-ceiling minor leaguers is more appealing that one that includes Wilson.

Snell of a Start: Ian Snell Impresses in Seattle Mariners Debut

Casey Greer — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 00:09:05 -0400

When Ian Snell stepped to the mound on Sunday, it was perhaps the most important start of his career.

After coming to Seattle from Pittsburgh, a franchise that hasn't had a winning season since 1992, Snell was pitching his first August start for a contender in his career.

But more importantly, his six-inning performance could be a very good momentum builder as the season comes to a close.

The Mariners lost, but Snell left with the game tied at two. While it won't go down as a win on his record, he showed things unseen by Mariners right-handed pitchers not named Felix Hernandez.

While Snell doesn't have incredible control, he showed tremendous command, causing fastballs to miss bats. He pitched like a starting pitcher, only reaching back when necessary, and keeping his emotions under control.

Apart from a line-drive double, Snell's only two significant blemishes were two mistakes for which he paid, home runs by David Murphy and Michael Young, though Young's home run would have probably been an out in Safeco Field.

So what should be taken from this outing? A single start is the definition of a small sample size, and extreme reactions are the definition of a hyperbole, but Snell has always had the potential to pitch this way.

He ran his fastball up to 95 mph, another positive sign, as his fastball velocity has slowly decreased since 2006.

Snell worked inside and outside, high and low, and had a very professional outing.

Another thing that Snell may benefit from—much in the same way Hernandez has—is the excellent game calling of catchers who aren't Kenji Johjima.

Snell pitched a lot of games to Ronny Paulino, some of his best. Perhaps Paulino's departure from Pittsburgh is to blame for Snell struggles.

Johnson appears to have handled Mariners pitchers so well that he's been given the nickname Sarah in USS Mariner comment threads, referring to this Catcher’s ERA (CERA) and lack of offensive prowess.

Jack Zduriencik has shown the ability to be a master of reclamation projects. Russell Branyan, despite recent struggles, is having the best season of his career while David Aardsma, once a bust, has become a bullpen stud.

There are reclamation stories on several pitching staffs throughout the majors. Typically, they are guys who have recovered from injuries.

So is Snell Chris Carpenter? Probably Not.

Edwin Jackson? Maybe.

At the very least, in an odd semi-buy trade that brought the Mariners two big league talents, it's nice to see the younger of the two contributing early.

The Mariners replaced the depth in their starting rotation with a big-league ready depth, and we'll get to see Luke French later this week.

Though the deadline was disappointing for many Mariners fans, today was a positive sign for the future.

Seattle Mariners Notes: Washburn, Branyan, and The Trade Deadline

Casey Greer — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 14:50:10 -0400

As the trade deadline approaches this post may become irrelevant quickly, as the trade deadline will come and go as I’m on my way to the ocean.

I’d just like to update and offer my opinion of the Mariners news and rumors.

Jarrod Washburn to Detroit for Luke French and Mauricio Robles

The deal has been reported as either two or three pitching prospects for Washburn at this point.

The Mariners actually appear to have gained as a result of holding onto Washburn for another year.

Scott is a fly-ball prone lefty. Though he's posted good numbers this year, his rookie season, his fly ball propensity from the left side is part of a redundant element the Mariners have in their rotation.

While Scott has a projectable frame, (6’4”, 220 lbs), Robles is less projectable (5’10”, 160 lbs). But Robles has posted more than a strikeout per inning in split time between Single-A and Advanced-A ball.

Zduriencik’s back

After an awful trade for Jack Wilson (and Ian Snell, the good part of the deal), Z came back and made a trade that made sense.

Wilson could still get flipped for somebody, anybody would be good, as the only way to make his acquisition a coup—if he’s not traded—is to not pay him $8.4 million next year. Otherwise, they’ve traded several prospects for an overpaid, aging shortstop.

Snell offers a very good contrast to the rest of the Mariners young pitcher’s, apart from Felix Hernandez and Brandon Morrow, as he’s right handed.

Bullpen pieces

A lot of teams appear to be seeking bullpen help, which the Mariners have.

David Aardsma will be arbitration eligible after this year, and will certainly be looking at a raise, though in his first year of arbitration it may be a fairly modest increase.

Mark Lowe has the type of physical tools, an electrifying fastball and good slider, that team’s may view as a future-closer repertoire. Between injuries and inconsistency, he hasn’t put it all together, but a team may fall in love with his stuff.

Miguel Batista drew interest earlier in the year, but it may have cooled. The Mariners may have to assume most of Batista’s salary to recoup on any of his salary in a trade.

Branyan Dilemma

Branyan’s a mid-30’s successful reclamation project, but a reclamation project none-the-less.

He’s due for a huge pay increase next year, and even in an optimist’s world, has three or four more productive seasons left in his body.

The Mariners may have missed out on the market for a bat, as the Pirates got Tim Alderson for Freddy Sanchez, which would have been a great addition to the Mariners.

However, the Red Sox appear interested in acquiring Victor Martinez, and after the PR dilemma that is David Ortiz’s leaked positive test, they may be concerned about his already reduced production.

The rumor is Clay Bucholz will go to Seattle as part three-team Martinez trade, is Wilson the piece from the third team?

After two clunkers, Zduriencik returned in a big way in his acquisitions from Jarrod Washburn. This year’s deadline is easily the most anticipated in the past half decade, but with some high-paid, injury-prone veterans, the Mariners may be able to make significant moves before the waiver deadline also.

Seattle Mariners Trades: Sell the Farm To Flip Wilson?

Casey Greer — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 07:27:58 -0400

When the Mariners traded Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Clement, and three prospects to the Pirates for Jack Wilson and Ian Snell, Mariners fans couldn’t help but be disappointed.

There is more than one way to stop a sinking ship, depending on the size of the hole. A pinhole may be stopped by a piece of gum. Albeit not a permanent solution, it can get the job done in a pinch.

The permanent solution, however, is not a bigger, more expensive, older piece of gum.

The Mariners shortstop position has been one of massive debate in the past few years. Yuniesky Betancourt regressed from the second-coming of Omar Vizquel in the eyes of some, to the Cuban answer to Chuck Knoblauch.

But even on Knoblauch’s worst day, he wasn’t the sole problem for his team.

Truth be told, micro-analysis of the shortstop position didn’t begin when Betancourt put on a few pounds, starting swinging at what seemed like every pitch, and seemed to forget where he was on occasion.

In reality, it began when Carlos Guillen was traded to the Detroit Tigers for Ramon Santiago before the 2004 season.

In a move made as a clear cleansing of the clubhouse, as the team wanted to separate Freddy Garcia and Guillen, they traded Guillen for a prospect nearly four years his junior, but one who didn’t have the offensive prowess that Guillen had.

After parts of two seasons and 27 games as a Mariner, Santiago would return to Detroit where both he and Guillen still play.

Since then the Mariners have trotted Rich Aurilia, Jose Lopez, Betancourt, Mike Morse, Cedeno, and now Wilson out to the position, all with some degree of seriousness as to their future at the position.

They also traded Asdrubal Cabrera and Luis Valbuena to the Indians, though that was during the perceived dark ages of Mariners personnel moves.

Not long ago, I pledged my undying trust for Jack Zduriencik. He was a half-dozen major moves into his tenure as general manager. Without exception, each move had either panned out or made absolute sense.

Since then, he designated Wladimir Balentien for assignment, opting instead to hang on to Chris Shelton, who personifies a flash in the pan.

I speculated that somewhere lurking was Ramon Santiago’s distant relative, who unknowingly was destined not to contribute to the Mariners future success.

Welcome to Seattle Robert Manuel, may your mid-80s fastballs miss bats, find gloves, or at least avoid causing brain injuries to fans seated in the left-field bleachers.

Balentien is reunited with Bill Bavasi, who undoubtedly teamed with Walt Jocketty, the Cincinnati Reds' new general manager to make a low-cost, savvy (ugh), low-risk, potentially-high-reward move for a semi-contending team.

Needless to say, my confidence in Zduriencik is shaken, if only a little bit.

There are a ton of clear-cut negatives in the Pirates trade: Wilson's old, plays only one position, didn’t hit in the National League (Poor man’s Jeff Cirillo? Double ugh), and has an $8.4 million option for next year.

Snell’s a potential head case, has only one year that profiles as a mid-rotation starter, is short for a right-handed pitcher, and doesn’t have electrifying stuff.

That said, both players present very different positives.

Snell has posted good numbers since requesting a demotion to Triple-A, though his numbers are far less impressive without his seven-inning, 17 strikeout performance to begin his Triple-A tenure.

Also, while Snell’s stuff may not be electrifying, it is certainly possible that even if he fails to become a decent starter in Seattle, he could be a late-inning reliever. With as many closers as there are that seem to be fabricated from team’s heaps of scrap metal, Snell may find himself a valuable trade piece once again down the road.

And while the duo makes a lot of combined money in 2010, the Mariners will only pay each $400,000 this year.

Which is a proper transition into Wilson’s positives, which are undoubtedly more immediate, but perhaps for different reasons.

The acquisition of Wilson doesn’t make sense.

The team was a day removed from being “ready to sell,” and went out and acquired expensive veteran talent.

The Mariners entered the offseason with question marks at shortstop, left field, first base, center field, designated hitter, closer, and in their rotation.

But the budget conscious Zduriencik opted for either cheap or young options at those positions, also trading away and allowing to leave some of the team’s higher paid players.

So why an $8 million defensive specialist shortstop?

Zduriencik is a proponent for solid defense, sure, but trading away what he did to acquire a shortstop on the wrong side of 30, with an $8.4 million option and a snowball’s chance in hell of garnering draft pick compensation upon becoming a free agent? Something’s fishy.

The Mariners weren’t the only team interested in Wilson. The Red Sox were also in discussions with the Pirates on the shortstop, as the team has struggled to replace an injured Jed Lowrie.

One of their failed options at the position, Julio Lugo, was recently traded to the St. Louis Cardinals, with the Red Sox assuming all of his remaining salary.

Surely, in any talks with the Pirates the remaining salary due to Wilson was prohibitive to some extent.

But $400,000 left on an essentially expiring contract is a much more attractive package, both for the trading and receiving team.

But Jack said...

"This was an opportunity for us to acquire a veteran shortstop, a former All-Star player, with leadership qualities and above-average defensive skills," said Zduriencik in a press conference. "As we move forward over the next few years it is nice to know that we have solidified the shortstop position."

Take it for what it’s worth, but in a May interview with John Hickey, formerly of the now-defunct Seattle PI, now of the Seattle Post Globe, Zduriencik said this of a certain recently-departed Mariners outfielder:

"He has surprised me. I didn’t think we had a player as good as he as shown himself to be. He plays good left field, and he hits. It didn’t help at the beginning that he was late. But he came in that first day, and he was all business and ready to go.”

Maybe I’m peaking under the wool Zduriencik has pulled over our eyes, at least I hope so.

Casey at the Bat | M's Deadline Dilemma Part 5: Meltdown To Liquidation

Casey Greer — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 09:58:12 -0400

I’ve spent the last eight hours trying to figure out how to phrase thorough beating the Mariners have received in their last four games, and keep coming back to crappy Eminem songs. I know more of them than I’m proud of, though I’ve boycotted him since the pseudo-political "Eminem Show."

Having submitted to my own past demons, I’ve decided that his appearance on Obie Trice’s “S—t hits the fan,” as an ode to the challenge that Jack Zduriencik presently faces, is perhaps best fits the article, and hopefully having made my decision, I can move on from one sell out, to a potential liquidation.

The Mariners have been outscored 42-10 in their past four games. To make matters worse, the presently ace-shopping Blue Jays put King Felix in shackles.

Hernandez had been brilliant for his last eleven starts. He’d pitched at least seven innings in all but one start, when he pitched six-and-two-thirds innings.

He hadn’t given up more than three earned runs in any start, dating back to May 19, and only gave up three earned runs in a game once during that stretch.

Hernandez gave up two homeruns on Monday, equaling the total homeruns allowed since May 19. All of that while only striking out 10 or more batters once, when he struck out 10 on May 24.

Hernandez carried the Mariners. He was the stopper at the end of losing streaks, and finally showed off the stuff that the rest of the league has been raving about since he came into the league.

But the Mariners have been walking a tight rope since the season began.

An overachieving, lucky bullpen, paired with an almost luckier rotation of fill-ins, as Erik Bedard and Brandon Morrow both spent time out of the rotation for very different reasons, carried the Mariners to a 2007-esque late-July above-.500 record.

But luck runs out, timely hitting shows up late, and without a realistic option on the trade market to cure the team’s woes (apart from Adrian Gonzalez, who “isn’t” on the market, and carries a “Bedard-like” price tag), Mariners fans and analysts have begun to sway to the dark side.

Jarrod Washburn is the team’s most obvious trade piece. He’s amidst perhaps his best season as a pro, and though some of his non-traditional statistics have been similar to previous, less-successful years, there are logical, tangible explanations to his success.

Last season the Mariners mulled over, and ultimately didn’t acquire two mediocre outfielders (Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner) and a bad left-handed pitcher (Kei Igawa). Now, presumably with an additional player, the Mariners may be in line to acquire J.J. Hardy, a defensive stud shortstop with an average bat, some power, and a decent plate approach.

A year ago I wanted to crucify Lee Pelakoudas for not unloading Washburn, and now it appears that hanging on to Washburn may have been the best move in the era between Pat Gillick and Zduriencik.

But if Washburn goes it would ultimately mean that 2009 is something of a concession. While Hardy could improve the team this year, and would almost certainly improve them next year, the team’s playoff chances are very slim.

That said, there are a few other players I think should be dangled, if not to simply see what they’re worth.

Jose Lopez doesn’t fit the team’s new philosophy. He’s a free-swinging player who was billed as the “A-Rod replacement,” and while that projection was unfair, Lopez has only met the low to moderate end of his potential.

He’ll probably have to move to third base in the next few years, his second position change as a pro, as age will diminish his already suspect range.

And the Mariners farm system is thick with infielders stuck between positions. Matt Tuiasosopo is playing third after being drafted as a shortstop, while Carlos Triunfel will likely make a transition from shortstop to either the hot corner or second base. There is even a possibility, albeit remote, that Dustin Ackley, the team’s second-overall pick moves to second base.

The Giants may be interest in Lopez. They’ve coveted a bat since essentially the onset of the season, and appear to prefer that the bat be right-handed.

The team has Pablo Sandoval at third base presently, but if “Kung Fu Panda” doesn’t start to shed some pounds, he may find all nearly-250-lbs of his odd body type across the diamond.

The Giants have expressed interest in Freddy Sanchez, but Sanchez doesn’t have nearly the power that Lopez does and comes at a much higher price tag. By trading for Sanchez as the Giants would almost assuredly be on the hook for his $8.1 million option, an option vested by plate appearances.

Brandon Morrow has been a frustrating figure for Mariners fans since the team drafted him.

Local sentiment had the majority of Mariners fans rooting for the team to pick Tim Lincecum, and after being proven right, following Lincecum’s immediate success, fans have been very outspoken about the mistake.

That’s not Morrow’s fault, nor was the awful handling he received under the previous regime, but it is nobody’s job to make up for that to Morrow. There may be a solution though, that can help both parties.

The Padres have been hunting for young, promising starting pitchers since the offseason. In a vetoed trade of Jake Peavy to the White Sox the Pads would have acquired two of the White Sox top pitching prospects. But Morrow may ultimately be a greater coup for the Padres than either White Sox farm hand would have been.

Morrow grew up in California, and while it’s hard to quantify the affect pitching closer to home would have for him, it’s possible he’d develop faster and better in his home state.

His pitching style, which lends itself to strikeouts, may be better suited in the National League, where he’d face a pitcher twice a game. Petco Park is also something of a power-pitcher’s heaven.

The Mariners have a slew of extra pieces in their farm system, led by Greg Halman.

The Pittsburgh Pirates appear to be one of few teams remaining who use “tools and potential” as their overwhelming primary method of scouting. They’ve also unloaded their entire outfield in the past few months.

About a month ago the team sent Ian Snell to triple A at the pitcher’s request. Since the demotion, the both the Pirates and Snell have shared publicly their distaste for eachother.

Snell may be had for Wladimir Balentien, if Balentien isn’t part of another trade. The value for Snell isn’t clear, the Pirates claim they won’t give him away, but also deemed offering nearly the same amount of money to Jack Wilson and Sanchez over the next two years as the duo will make next year “negotiations.”

Regardless of the players traded, this may be the most fluid deadline the Mariners have seen in some time, and the first in even longer that didn’t start with the fans saying “don’t bleep this up,” and end with the fans saying “they really bleeped that up.”

Casey at the Bat | M's Deadline Dilemma Part 4: Another Bavasi Fall Guy

Casey Greer — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 09:16:36 -0400

Wladimir Balentien has been designated for assignment (DFA), and the Mariners have decided that they’ll allow Michael Saunders learn to hit at the big league level at the expense of their once-promising prospect in Balentien.

And the while the Mariners blogosphere rejoiced, I’m more skeptical.

Balentien was unfairly given the pressure of being the “remaining hope,” as the team traded Adam Jones to Baltimore in exchange for Erik Bedard. The former teammates were considered good hitting prospects, though Jones possessed better defensive potential and a full set of potential tools he’s presently displaying at an All Star caliber in Baltimore.

In DFAing Balentien, the Mariners have imposed a 10 day deadline to trade the outfielder. They were probably dead-set on trading him, and it won’t be an issue, as the MLB trade deadline is five days away.

But I think they DFAed the wrong guy.

When Endy Chavez went down with an injury, Wladimir Balentien was anointed the every day starter. I wrote a column stating that it was time for Balentien to realize his potential, or leave. Little did I know that he’d be given six games to do that.

Balentien is something of a defensive liability, and would have to prove his worth with his bat, in all likelihood.

In the six games that Balentien started after Chavez’s injury he went 6-23 with two home runs and a walk. That’s good for a .261/.292/.522 clip. The small sample size, though damaging to the credibility of the numbers, was not Balentien’s fault.

Two days after Balentien’s final game as the team’s “every day starter,” the team traded for Ryan Langerhans.

Langerhans has been generally productive, though a recent slump may indicate why he was relegated to the minors in Washington, but Langerhans is ultimately not the player who pushed Balentien out the door.

The team has just regained the need for a fifth starter, as off days and the All Star break allowed them to pitch four starters on full rest since the break. The Mariners DFAed Roy Corcoran, a mediocre bullpen arm to make room for Ryan Rowland-Smith.

But neither Rowland-Smith nor Roy Corcoran is to blame either.

The Mariners called up Michael Saunders, their top big-league ready prospect to the bigs, but Saunders isn’t to blame for Balentien’s departure either.

Rather the team let Balentien go in exchange for an older hitter in the middle of a massive regression. A hitter who will fill in for the team’s best power hitter this season, Russell Branyan, and Ken Griffey Jr. when the duo sits against lefties.

The Mariners recently brought Chris Shelton to the big leagues. Like Balentien, Shelton’s career splits defy conventional wisdom, a right-handed hitter who hits better against right-handed pitching during his career than he does against lefties.

The Mariners seem prepared to allow Branyan to take nearly all of the at bats at first base, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher the Mariners are facing, at least for as long as he’s a Mariner.

The problem is that Griffey has also done his job to defy conventional wisdom. He’s hit .241/.369/.630 against lefties, including six of his 10 home runs, compared to just .203/.315/.310 against righties, all in just over a quarter the amount of plate appearances.

And while Shelton’s career .255/.348/.389 line against lefties are only eclipsed by Russell Branyan’s career lefty split numbers in slugging, this year Branyan’s been far better against lefties than Shelton’s .184/.273/.245 2008 splits against lefties in 57 plate appearances for the Rangers last season.

And besides, don't they already have that guy in Mike Sweeney?

This move smacks of house cleaning. It smacks of remodeling. And while those are typically positive terms when spoken about a team coming off a last place, 100-loss season, this isn’t simply vacuuming, dusting, and updating a few outdated appliances.

This is like organizational genocide, singling out every prospect once-touted by former Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi, and eliminating them. But contrary to local belief, Bavasi was not Fidel Castro, just bad at his job.

Is youth occasionally overvalued? Sure.

Is potential occasionally damning? Probably.

Is pride occasionally overwhelming? Absolutely.

I’ve been a very vocal proponent of Jack Zduriencik in his brief time in Seattle. A few weeks ago, I essentially devoted my undying trust in the Mariners general manager. But in this case, I think Z was dead wrong.

I’ve been a quiet proponent for the Mariners conceding defeat in 2009. They weren’t supposed to be good, and the team would be doing the fans a disservice by making a play for instant, minimal gratification.

A first round playoff exit isn’t worth as much as the prospects that could be gained by ditching a few extra parts.

But I don’t think that the white flag should have been waived with a 25-year-old power-hitter with potential as the proverbial emblem.

Maybe Balentien will net Ian Snell, or join the rest of his “Mariners Lite” teammates in
Kansas City or Cleveland.

But maybe, somewhere, Ramon Santiago’s distant relative is crouched, prepared to impart his non-contributions on the Mariners as the team has cut any leverage they had out from under themselves.

Balentien is the unfortunate product of Bavasi’s prospect mismanagement. He wasn’t a big-league-caliber hitter when he was originally called up, and struggled to adjust to major league breaking balls.

If that doesn’t sound like what the team did to Michael Saunders simultaneous to Balentien’s designation, regardless of results, then I don’t know what does.

Ultimately, Balentien isn’t a part of the team’s future plans, but pushing him out by way of Chris Shelton is a lateral move at best, and potentially a downgrade.

Casey at the Bat | M's Deadline Dilemma Part 3: Behind On the Power Bill

Casey Greer — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 07:38:38 -0400

This installment of the Mariners deadline dilemmas will chronicle the Mariners lack of and need for offensive production. The team’s most obvious, glaring deficiency is that of an established, complete hitter.

From the beginning of the season, the Mariners have set themselves at an essentially unavoidable disadvantage. In the past I’ve stated frequently that there are four premium offensive positions in the American League: first base, designated hitter, left field, and right field.

At every other position, while there are players who break the rule, there is generally less offensive production. Typically also, above-average offensive players at non-premium positions get paid like premium players, Adrian Beltre for example, who was paid on his monstrous 2003 season.

I’ve defended Beltre however, as the runs he’s prevented have made up for many of the runs he’s failed to produce, and he’s about an average offensive third baseman. Scott Rolen is widely considered the best all-around third baseman of his generation, but Beltre has been on par with him offensively in recent years, and probably better defensively.

That stated, the Mariners are, and will continue to be hamstrung by their loyalties to Ken Griffey Jr. and Ichiro Suzuki.

I’m one of the supporters of keeping Griffey in the starting lineup. Quite frankly, this was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and I want to see my hero swing the bat as much as I can, first-round playoff appearance and subsequent exit be damned.

I’ve resigned myself to the idea that Ichiro will finish his career as a Mariner, as a right fielder, as a leadoff hitter, and overpaid; all things I think the Mariners should have been able to avoid.

With two positions taken up by an unproductive hall-of-fame plaque and an out-of-position slap-hitter, the two remaining positions are also presently filled by players with some serious flaws.

Russell Branyan strikes out to much, and appears headed for a regression to mean. He’s been the team’s most productive hitter, and deserves to keep his job for the rest of this season if he remains a Mariner, but he’s not the hitter I’m writing about.

Ryan Langerhans has cooled from a hot start, and will likely end the year around .250/.350/.380. Not awful, but certainly not the middle-of-the-order masher this team needs.

But is that masher available?

Perhaps the best hitter who would conventionally be on the market is Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres have held strong, claiming the slugger isn’t available, but that doesn’t stem from sense, rather the tough sell of allowing Trevor Hoffman to walk, actively shopping Jake Peavy, and trading the team’s best hitter all in the same calendar year.

If Gonzalez is available it would probably take a package akin to what the Braves gave up for Mark Teixeira. They gave up, among other prospects, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Elvis Andrus, both of whom presently start for the Rangers.

The Mariners equivalent would probably be something along the lines of Jeff Clement and Carlos Triunfel, a hefty haul for a guy who struggled in his short time in the American League.

As always, however, there are some bargains available.

I’ve mentioned Luke Scott in the past. He’s the left-handed fourth-outfielder and designated hitter in Baltimore, and is 31-years old. Scott has hit in both leagues, though each place he’s played, Houston and Baltimore, play their home games in band boxes.

That said, even a portion of Scott’s .294/.378/.571 line in 2009 would be an upgrade in left field in Seattle.

Though Scott is 31, he’s under team control through 2012, and makes only $2.4 million this year. That would work for and against the Mariners, as he’s relatively inexpensive. But the Orioles and other teams understand the value that carries, and the Mariners may have to send more to Baltimore than they would for a comparable player past his arbitration years.

The Mariners have expressed some interest in Josh Willingham. Unlike Scott, Willingham is right handed, but possesses a fairly similar skillset. At 30-years-old Willingham walks enough, hits for some power (.268/.367/.480 for his career), and gets hit by a lot of pitches (51 times in the last four years, 10 in 246 plate appearances this year).

Willingham is under team control through 2011.

The problem is that Willingham has never hit in the American League. There is a Nationals outfielder however, who makes a lot of sense for the Mariners, and his name isn’t Adam Dunn. Check back on Friday.

Another name that has been mentioned is Matt Holliday. Holliday represents essentially the same set of skills and flaws as Willingham, especially having struggled to some extent since leaving the light air in Colorado for the American League.

All at a higher price tag.

Also like Willingham though, Holliday has a teammate who may make more sense for the M’s.

Jack Cust always seemed like a guy destined to play for the A’s. He walks a ton, play average to below-average defense in the outfield, and hits the ball a ton. Like former-turned-current A’s slugger Jason Giambi, Cust has been tied to performance enhancing drugs.

Cust was mentioned in the Mitchell Report, and after denying allegations has strung together a couple of productive years.

Cust is under team control until 2011, and makes $2.8 million this year. He’s 30-years old and boasts a .240/.372/.465 career line. Those numbers aren’t incredibly impressive, but over Cust’s career he’s walked 17.3 percent of his at bats.

The Mariners attempted to employ a “three-center-fielder” outfield this year. While Cust plays a respectable left field according to fielding metrics, he may be a better example of the flaws of metrics than respectability.

Ultimately he’d be relegated to the designated hitter role, where he’s spent most of his time in Oakland, as he hasn’t played first base in the majors and only played 17 games there in the minor leagues.

In 2009 he’d make an excellent power option for the Mariners from the left hand side, but they may have to give up Brandon Morrow or another young pitcher with upside to get him.

Casey at the Bat | M's Deadline Dilemma Part 2: Bedard and Washburn

Casey Greer — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 10:40:52 -0400

With the Mariners remaining four games out of first place in the American League West, there is little change to their potential as buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, but that shouldn’t stop speculation about the two most important opportunities for the Mariners to build toward the future: Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn.

Washburn and Bedard have done a lot to affect their value this season, though they both started at opposite ends of the spectrum, they’ve barreled closer to a collision in the middle as the 2009 season has worn on.

Bedard had to prove that he was able to stay healthy this season for the Mariners to see a rise in his value, and he didn’t do that. Bedard is making his third start today since coming off the disabled list, where he spent a month.

His velocity has been good, pitching in the low-to-mid 90s and though his command has been spotty the action on his off speed pitches has been adequate. He remains plagued by his inability to go deep into games, a product of his command and tendency to pitch for strikeouts rather than quick outs.

Washburn by contrast has been a surprisingly successful pitcher this year. After three seasons where his ERA was in the mid-four range, and his WHIP over 1.350 each season, he’s found a groove. The hard luck loser in recent years has remained a victim of little run support, but sports an ERA under three and a WHIP of 1.086.

Washburn has averaged about six-and-two-thirds innings per game, and despite being on pace to give up more homeruns than last season he’s reduced his opponents slugging percentage to .355, down from .463 last season.

Much of the decrease has been done by virtue of giving up less hits than innings pitched, at least to this point of the season, for the first time since 2003. However, as I’ve written about twice this season, a lot of credit may belong to the team’s two-thirds new outfield.

Considering that the team is in a playoff push, trading 40 percent of their starting rotation may seem asinine. However, though both pitchers’ pasts give them limited value, though for different reasons, they almost assuredly hold more value to at least a couple of teams than they do for the Mariners.

The Mariners, mostly because of Jack Zduriencik’s dealing in the offseason, have a surplus of starting pitching. While they don’t possess a Rick Porcello, Clay Bucholz, Madison Bumgarner type of arm in their farm system, they’ve got a glut of major-league-ready lefties in Ryan Rowland-Smith, Jason Vargas and Garrett Olson, each of whom probably profiles as a mid-late rotation starter.

While Vargas has been impressive in bursts this year, previous to unraveling in the wet, light air in Denver, he’s probably got the lowest ceiling of the three.

Rowland-Smith was impressive last season in a brief stint as a starter, and his return to the Mariners rotation, likely to occur later this month, is much anticipated.

Olson on the other hand, has been unimpressive to some, but shown massive improvement upon deeper examination of his statistics to this point in the season. Olson, barring a trade, will likely be the topic of an entire column.

Each young pitcher is under team control beyond 2009, all at a far lower cost than Bedard and Washburn, each of whom is a free agent after this year.

Both have expressed their liking for Seattle at some point during this season, and though a trade would be unfortunate for each, their impending free agency doesn’t preclude a return, presuming their sentiments are genuine.

But each pitcher’s value is unclear.

U.S.S. Mariner presented a strong argument for trading both for J.J. Hardy, a well-rounded, mid-20s shortstop for the Milwaukee Brewers.

The problem of course is allocating salaries. The chances of the Brewers taking on the remaining nearly $8 million left for the two combined is unlikely. Also, considering that the Milwaukee Brewers are eager to bring Alcides Escobar to the big leagues, Hardy’s departure may be expedited to the point where the Mariners may be able to underpay for him.

By contrast, the Phillies are so desperate for starting pitching in the wake of the struggles of Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, and an injury to Brett Myers, they signed Pedro Martinez. They appear to be the front runners to acquire Roy Halladay, who will likely be the trade market’s compass.

Last year the team expressed interest in Erik Bedard, who could remain the second best pitcher on the market despite his injuries.

Last year, following the CC Sabathia trade, the Oakland Athletics were able to pull a pretty decent haul from the Chicago Cubs for Rich Harden. Though Harden was amidst perhaps his best season as a professional, he was similarly injury-prone and was in the middle of a similarly short-outing laden season.

The A’s acquired Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Josh Phelps, and Eric Patterson from the Cubs, also giving up Chad Gaudin, a mid-20s pitcher who has bounced between starting and relieving in seven seasons and split among five teams, presently the San Diego Padres.

But Harden was younger and made less money than Bedard.

Bedard could be viewed as a No. 2 starter in a pretty bare market though, and could be coveted by the Cardinals, Brewers, Rays, Reds, and Mets by my estimation.

Washburn’s value, similar to the valuation of Russell Branyan that I discussed earlier this week, is undoubtedly higher among traditional, tools and scouting based front offices.

Last year the Yankees and Twins expressed interest in the lefty. The Yankees ultimately came closest to acquiring the lefty.

They haggled over outfielders Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and left handed pitcher Kei Igawa. While Igawa’s career as a major league pitcher appears to be close to over, both Gardner and Cabrera have posted respectable seasons, though Cabrera’s power numbers have been aided by the new, homer-happy Yankee Stadium, where he’s hit seven of his eight home runs.

However, unknown at the time, was that the Mariners would acquire one of the top young outfielders in baseball in Franklin Gutierrez.

The Yankees have since signed Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, and would likely have little to no interest in Washburn at this point, but the Twins may remain a viable destination.

Considering that both Bedard and Washburn will likely fall out of the Type A category for free agents, and while each may fall into the Type B category, the team would be irresponsible to offer Washburn arbitration, which they’d have to do to garner compensation, and the modest compensation for Type B free agents likely doesn’t match what the Mariners could get for Bedard in a trade.

Casey at the Bat | M's Deadline Dilemma Part 1: Russell Branyan

Casey Greer — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 05:59:50 -0400

The Mariners are in a precarious situation. They are four games over .500 and four games out of first place in the American League West. It has put them into the gray area of teams that are neither buyers nor sellers approaching the trade deadline.

The Mariners have several players for whom they are at risk or receiving no compensation if the player is to leave, and have reached the peak of their trade value in all likelihood.

They also have players who are young, and in the years where their potential, however unfulfilled, has kept their trade value at a high point.

They also face a dilemma when targeting players. Young, pre-free-agency players will require the M’s to give up a lot more compensation than a proverbial “rent-a-player,” while many such players can be had for little compensation in an uncertain economy.

Local outlets have called for the Mariners to be both buyers and sellers, a team that essentially shuffles players around, adding to roster turnover, and risking a compromise in chemistry.

The Mariners owe the unquantifiable attribute a lot of their success, but the team has several positions where it can make tangible improvements.

So with Jack Zduriencik approaching his first trade deadline as a general manager, each installment of “Casey at the Bat” from now until the trade deadline will profile a possible Mariners trade piece or target and offer some insight as to what they are worth, who may want them, and what the Mariners should do, beginning with Russell Branyan.

Branyan has been a surprise contributor this season. While his career splits showed that he could be a valuable platoon player against right-handed pitchers, he’s surpassed almost anyone’s wildest, most optimistic expectations.

Branyan made a pretty solid case for himself as an American League All-Star, though he didn’t make the team, with his .280/.382/.573 line in the first half. Most surprising, is that he has ultimately received almost all of the at-bats at first base, even against lefties, and been fairly productive.

But things have begun to turn south for the talented lefty. Back spasms have slowed his legs, and while they may be partially responsible for slowing his bat, it is entirely possible that the slugger is making a slow decent back to earth.

Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a statistic often used to forecast a player going into the future, usually over a short period of time.

The statistic doesn’t include homeruns or strikeouts, but rather is used to quantify balls that the opposing defense can affect.

While player’s batting averages may fluctuate some .100 points during their career, typically, their BABIP is more steady.

When players are hitting significantly above their career average BABIP, they are considered to be having lucky seasons.

Branyan’s career BABIP is .306, and his 2009 BABIP is .337.

He’s struck out less often, hit home runs more often, and walked more often this year than his career averages would indicate.

That is reason enough to believe that the second half could bring Branyan back down to his career line, a far less impressive .236/.334/.496.

Add in a rough June and July, and the regression seems inevitable. If the aforementioned is the sole method for determining a regression, M’s fans better get the same booing lungs ready as Branyan takes the same meteoric nosedive as the last first baseman the Mariners signed from Milwaukee by way of Cleveland.

But before the hatches are battened down, there are a few other philosophies to consider when describing Branyan’s success.

Those who believe in positional comfortability on defense, or steady playing time as contributors to offensive consistency will say that his time at first base has led to his atypical mid-30’s surge.

Others who believe that batting order position has been a huge factor in Branyan’s success. Most of his recent struggles occurred beginning the same day he was moved into the No. 2 spot in the batting order.

But even by conventional thinking there is explanations for Branyan’s potential regression, led by the idea that he’s simply not that good.

He’s never produced like this for this period of time, and there have been several scouts and general managers who saw fit to trade Branyan, or allow him to leave via free agency, were they all wrong?

And truth be told, while not generally well received before allegations surface, these types of rags to riches stories have had the rags and riches replaced by needles and veins far too frequently in recent memory to create solid footing for even the most starry eyed optimist to stand on.

All that said, if the Mariners are open to dealing Branyan, there will be suitors. Branyan’s $1.4 million salary could make him the most valuable of all rent-a-players. The teams that I assume will be interested are the Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Marlins, Mets, Braves, and Giants, though many of those teams have caveats to acquiring Branyan.

The Red Sox would be interested in Branyan in light of the struggles of David Ortiz, but Ortiz bounced back pretty well to have a very good June (.320/.409/.653). However Big Papi is struggling in July, and the Red Sox may just be looking for insurance.

Branyan can play a respectable first base, an ugly but honest third base, and could probably play left field if called upon. Also, Theo Epstein will be well aware of Branyan’s potential regression and the Mariners would likely receive less compensation as a result.

The Rays would likely balk at the chance to receive a mid-30s non-compensation player for whom they’d have to give up a valuable young player.

The Tigers have mostly bullpen arms in their farm system, something the present front office regime may stay away from trading for.

The Marlins, like the Rays, are in no financial position to be taking on non-compensation players for valuable trade pieces; though they’ve proven to be aggressive in years they think they are contenders.

The Braves would probably be an ideal fit, with a straight-across trade for Casey Kotchman, or some sort of Branyan+ arrangement that would bring Kotchman to Seattle.

Kotchman’s probably never going to be a great offensive first baseman, and has limited value, but he’s one of two pieces the Braves got in the Mark Teixeira trade. Albeit unfair, he carries added burden for any team trying to trade for him.

The Mets have been weary of making trades, and expect Carlos Delgado to return in August. If Delgado suffers a setback in the next two weeks, the Mets may become serious contenders for Branyan’s services, but if not, Branyan and Delgado are essential clones, though Delgado is better.

The Giants only caveat is that their preference for a bat would that it is right handed. But at the price they’d likely be able to get Branyan for, and the financial price they’d pay him the rest of the year, beggars can’t be choosers.

So what exactly could the Mariners expect to receive for Branyan?

Branyan is an odd trade piece. He’s one team falling in love with his bat away from being dealt for way more than he’s worth, as has been the case in the past for flash-in-the-pan power hitters.

Jose Guillen was once traded for Aaron Harang and two throw-ins, all while hitting .337/.385/.629 in Cincinnati in 2003. He was traded after 349 plate appearances, a number he hadn’t accumulated since 1998.

Is there an Aaron Harang out there?

Branyan’s significantly older than Guillen was, but considering that Clay Bucholz and Michael Bowden, both Red Sox farm hands have both been critical of the organization during the season, perhaps they’ve lost enough favor with the team to warrant a trade.

Rick Porcello, the Tigers only true blue-chip prospect, won’t be wearing a Seattle uniform unless the name coming back in return is Felix Hernandez.

I’d guess the Mariners, if Branyan is traded, are likely to receive two mid-grade prospects or a solid, Major-League-ready prospect.

To make a trade like that they’d likely have to cross the frugal Rays and Marlins off the list. Also gone are the Red Sox, who place a heavy emphasis on statistical evaluation and will properly assess Branyan’s value.

With the remaining teams, the Mariners may look to receive:

Mets: Reese Havens, SS or Ruben Tejada, SS/Greg Veloz, 2b assuming the Mets are interested

Tigers: Jeff Larish, 1b or Alex Avila, C/Casper Wells, OF

Braves: Yunel Escobar, SS or Kala Kaaihue, 1b/Edgar Osuna, LHP. Braves valuation of Escobar seems to have changed dramatically since this offseason, another Yuniesky Betacourt?

Giants: Travis Ishikawa, 1b, the Giants have a bevy of power arms, I won’t begin to predict who the Mariners may pull from their pitching-heavy farm system.

Ultimately, the Mariners must decide if keeping Branyan, arguably their best hitter this season, is more valuable than trading him. He won’t garner compensation in the off-season, and they’ll have to either let him walk or overpay him.

They must decide if a potential run to the playoffs is worth losing out on building toward the future, as Branyan was once the equivalent to buying a foreclosed mansion, but have the Mariners made that house a home? Or are they looking to flip it for a large profit and move forward?

Zduriencik hasn’t been shy in making non-PR-friendly moves, Branyan may be his ultimate test.

Casey at the Bat | M's Should Use All Star Break To Fix Broken Offense

Casey Greer — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:13:11 -0400

The Mariners are headed into the All Star break with their heads high, after taking three of four from the division rival Texas Rangers. In doing so, they’ve shown that they can compete with the top teams in the AL West, already 7-6 against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

But while the players take a break, the front office should not.

The Mariners are not a team guaranteed a postseason slot. Actually, there is a lot more explanations for why the team shouldn’t be where they are right now than explanations for their success.

The Seattle media and citizen journalists have been adamant that the Mariners can be both buyers and sellers at the trade deadline. There recent buys, Jack Hannahan and Ryan Langerhans, have been savvy, low cost acquisitions.

Likewise, the trade of Yuniesky Betancourt was an absolute fleecing of the Kansas City Royals.

But the Mariners have several players, in many cases new players, who should be flipped for more modest gains.

Garrett Olson was a highly sought after prospect this offseason. The Padres wanted him as part of a package that could have sent Jake Peavy out of town, and his trade to the Cubs seemed to be the green light for a Peavy trade.

The trade ultimately didn’t happen, and Peavy is on the shelf with a torn ankle tendon. Putting together a package for Peavy would be near-impossible, and likely irresponsible, but the Padres have other players the Mariners may value as well as a glut of left-handed starters that the Padres may covet.

So, how bad do they want Olson?

The Padres have two first base prospects, Kyle Blanks and Allan Dykstra, that could offer M’s fans an interesting insight into the front office.

Blanks is a monstrous slugger and a switch hitter. He’d be more expensive to acquire in terms of prospects and doesn’t walk a ton.

Dykstra, on the other hand, compares more to Russell Branyan. He’s a first baseman who played a bad third base in college. He’s got holes in his swing, but holds the ACC record for walks coming out of Wake Forest.

He’s the guy I wanted the Mariners to pick last year.

Dykstra’s not exactly tearing up a ball, but his .208/.397/.348 line is highlighted by 67 walks.

Olson alone may be enough to get Dykstra as the Padres are very well stocked at first base with Adrian Gonzalez at the big league level, and neither Dykstra or Blanks can play another position in the bigs.

Then there is Jeff Clement.

Clement has lost his spot as the organization’s catcher of the future, with a likely platoon of Adam Moore and Rob Johnson going forward for now. The team also drafted a catcher in the first round.

The Boston Red Sox may have found their replacement for the struggling David Ortiz in—well—Ortiz himself. However, they have been in search of a backup and eventual replacement for Jason Varitek, a hole Clement may be able to fill.

The Red Sox have a trio of pitchers: Justin Masterson, Clay Bucholz, and Michael Bowden, who may be on the move this season.

Masterson can’t seem to find a spot in the Red Sox rotation, but his heavy fastball may look nice as a means to break up the Mariners' left-handed starters in 2009.

Bowden and Bucholz, the “Ryan Anderson and Gil Meche” of the Red Sox pitching trio, have both struggled to stay in the majors. Bowden has had a few cups of coffee in the bigs, while Bucholz rode a strong finish to the 2007 season into a rough 2008.

Bucholz is back in the majors, but perhaps to showcase himself for a possible trade of Roy Halladay to Boston.

That’s all a nice segue to the Mariners' opportunity to buy on some actual big leaguers.

The only pitcher on the market that may make sense for the Mariners to look at is Roy Halladay, and I’d be a proponent for an attempted acquisition.

The team may not have the prospects to trade for Halladay, but they shouldn’t be hesitant as a result of the Erik Bedard trade.

Trading for Bedard, though similar, was vastly different. Halladay is almost assured to be a Type A free agent, and a former Cy Young winner. He’s perhaps the best pitcher in baseball, and would be proof positive for Felix Hernandez that his slider doesn’t need to take place of the knuckle-curve he threw in 2007.

Halladay has been nothing but stellar since becoming an elite pitcher, and eats innings like he’s starving.

But, in all likelihood, another team will be able to offer a better package of prospects, so speculation about Halladay may be farfetched and a waste of time.

The team could still use a bat though.

The unfortunate truth is that the Mariners will likely have to either give up on a promising player or replace a legend to do so.

There are four premier offensive positions in the major leagues: first base, left field, right field, and designated hitter. Those positions are presently patrolled by: Russell Branyan, Ichiro Suzuki, Ryan Langerhans, and Ken Griffey Jr.

While I think that Branyan will have a serious regression in the second half of the season based on his BABIP numbers and career trends in late months and seasons with a lot of plate appearances, I recognize that the team likely has no plans to move him, unless of course they fall out of contention.

I’ve been a long time critic of Ichiro.

I think he’s overrated and a legacy-first player. He’s got a ton of talent, and is the best singles hitter in baseball. The problem is that being the best singles hitter is similar to being the best free throw shooter in basketball, or the best field goal kicker in football.

While Ichiro’s contributions to the team are valuable, his position, salary, and production don’t match up.

That stated, he’s a fixture on this team, and his aforementioned salary will probably be on the Mariners' books for the duration of Ichiro’s career.

However, it is the same loyalty that new Mariners fans have to Ichiro that I have to Griffey. He’s the poster boy of my youth, the kid, and I’d be personally offended if he was replaced this season.

I don’t think I’m alone in that feeling, nor do I think I’m treading on ground that hasn’t been considered by Jack Zduriencik.

So that means that the player that the Mariners acquire will likely have to be able to play the outfield. Other positions of need, namely third base and shortstop, come at a higher price tag both in terms of financial and personnel compensation.

The M’s could take a look at Luke Scott.

He’s the odd-man-out of the Baltimore Orioles' young outfield. He’s always had some power, boasting an ISO around .240 most of his career, and he can play both corner outfield positions.

His walks are about where the team will eventually draw their baseline for corner outfielders.

The Mariners could continue the league’s harvesting of the Pittsburgh Pirates outfield and take a flyer on Delwyn Young. Young’s been a disappointing prospect, but he’s a switch hitter with some power, and could be another reclamation project on a team already filled with never-were’s producing like still-are’s.

But I think the Mariners should choose to eat some crow, and re-acquire Shin-Soo Choo. Choo struggled as a Mariner, but has gone to Cleveland and produced to the tune of .301/.395/.504.

Choo bats left-handed and can play both corner outfield positions. However, the team will have to pay a much higher price than the original trade that sent Choo to the tribe, which brought Ben Broussard to Cleveland.

Apart creating and odd, anti-2007 asymmetry, which saw the Mariners acquire the Cleveland platoon of Eduardo Perez and Broussard at first base, the team could instead start Cleveland’s 2008 right field platoon every day.

Casey at the Bat | Betancourt's Departure Addition By Subtraction

Casey Greer — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 00:20:37 -0400

For the last few weeks Mariners fans have been all-but-rioting in an effort to get Yuniesky Betancourt out of town. Those people got their wish as the Kansas City Royals traded two minor leaguers to the Mariners in exchange for the enigmatic shortstop.

This is another move in a long line of the Royals acquiring unwanted Mariners, but unlike Gil Meche, Jose Guillen and Willie Bloomquist, Betancourt was traded. The two prospects the Mariners got back, Daniel Cortes and Derrick Saito appear to be future bullpen arms, though Cortes could develop into a starter.

Cortes sounds a lot like Bobby Jenks, who was the subject of an ESPN article when I was in high school. Jenks had a troubled past, a dominating fastball, and a curveball that came out of nowhere to be good, despite poor technique in throwing it.

Jenks actually spent almost his entire minor league career attempting to start, with most of his relief appearances in the minors coming in 2005, the year he’d make his White Sox debut. His problem was that he couldn’t find the strikezone consistently, averaging six walks per nine innings.

Jenks never found control in the minors, and ultimately became the White Sox closer.

Cortes has a checkered past, caught urinating on a fence in public in Arkansas a few weeks ago, but most alarmingly, he was stabbed eight times in a bowling alley parking lot in 2005. The story goes that Cortes was a hero of sorts, attempting to break up a fight between co-workers and gang members, but it seems that trouble tends to find those looking for it.

In that incident however, Cortes was stabbed in his pitching arm, so perhaps control issues may have something to do with his recovery, and his ceiling is higher than it appears.

Either that, or he becomes a viable candidate to replace David Aardsma when the Mariners current closer inevitably prices himself out of a Mariners uniform.

Saito is probably a situational lefty at his peak. He’s short (5’9” tall), and though he appears to have good command he’ll probably have trouble getting right handed batters out at the big league level. He’s got an impressive skill set but his size is very limiting.

The true value in this trade, though the haul was impressive enough, is that it clears up the middle infield. For months there has been speculation about Betancourt’s future by the media, poking and prodding by the coaching staff, all-but-ultimatums from the front office, and that stuff can stop.

Ronny Cedeno will be the team’s starting shortstop until further notice. There is no incumbent in the minor leagues, and while Chris Woodward can play the position, he’s never been any team’s first choice as a long term solution at the position.

Jose Lopez is likely to remain a second base for the rest of the season at least. Though he may be best suited as a third baseman going forward, a mid-season transition seams counter-intuitive.

And with Franklin Gutierrez showing tangible change to go with improved production, the team is clearly able to afford to give up on Betancourt’s offensive potential and keep their heads above water.

But this realistically allows the team to make offensive improvements to their infield without having to shuffle multiple players out of position or put young players on waivers, neither of which are smart baseball moves.

The Mariners have the Pirates top scout scouting their games. Hopefully the team isn’t looking to acquire Jack Wilson, who probably wouldn’t be a huge upgrade by any measure, but Freddy Sanchez offers in interesting option.

Sanchez, a contact hitting second baseman does everything essentially that makes me think that Ichiro is overrated.

He doesn’t walk, doesn’t hit for power, but unlike Ichiro, he doesn’t play a premium offensive position.

Sanchez makes a lot of money, and since his potential departure from Pittsburgh is likely a salary dump, chances are the Mariners won’t be able to get the Pirates to take on much salary, but may not have to give up a lot of very good prospects.

He has however, played most of his professional career with the haphazardly-run Pittsburgh Pirates, and if he’s able to step into a scenario where plate discipline is an emphasis, perhaps he can adapt and perform.

The Mariners have a slew of prospects which don’t fit their present philosophy, potential laden athletes without refined skills, the type of prospects the Pirates love.

Also, the Pirates have a very good pitching prospect, 26-year-old Ian Snell who they seem to have every intention to sell low on. Snell has a physical skill set and track record that could lend themselves to future success, but probably not in a Pirates uniform.

Would a package of Greg Halman, Mark Lowe and Prentice Redman be enough to bring Snell and Sanchez to Seattle? I don’t know, but it is something that is much easier to explore without Betancourt acting as the elephant in the room.

Casey at the Bat | Zduriencik is Seattle's Jack of All Trades (and Signings)

Casey Greer — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 22:22:08 -0400

The Mariners just reached the halfway point of their season. After 81 games, though, the Mariners are overachieving compared to historic trends, and are a much improved ballclub compared to 2008.

When the team hired Jack Zduriencik this offseason, they clearly believed he’d give the team the best chance for long-term success, but little did they know how fast he could turn Bill Bavasi’s mess into trade value and a team in contention.

It appears, at least for now, that everything Zduriencik puts his hands on turns to gold—from failed starters, jettisoned relievers, situational journeymen to defensive specialists. He’s gotten immediate returns on most of his offseason acquisition, all while perpetuating the team’s new personality:patience.

Zduriencik has effectively replaced broken parts on last year’s team with low-cost replacements, but replacements who fit the team’s new mold.

In Russell Branyan, he saw an everyday bat—Branyan is perhaps the most notable non-All-Star Mariner.

In Franklin Gutierrez he saw a fourth outfielder—relegated to right field in Cleveland where center is roamed by Grady Sizemore—as a starting center fielder, and one who has power and walk potential.

He brought in a committee of power arms to compete for the closer job. Though Brandon Morrow initially took the role, David Aardsma separated himself from the pack.

All of Aardsma’s success comes on the heels of the team trading former injury-plagued closer J.J. Putz Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed to New York; and Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Gutierrez, Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas and a few prospects.

The Mariners let Raul Ibanez sign with the Phillies. However, because he was a Type A free agent, the Mariners received two draft picks as compensation.

With those picks they passed on prospects with higher ceilings or college resumes for high schoolers who, though less experienced, have complete skillsets and low bust potential.

He brought in Mike Sweeney and Ken Griffey Jr., both of whom may not fit the team’s view for the future, but who have brought valuable veteran leadership to the team this year—all at relatively inexpensive price tags.

Most of the signings were made to facilitate future success. But those trades and signings, even when compared to the established veterans the Mariners let go, have outperformed last year’s production from those players.

While the hitter production appears to be less, the departed Mariners numbers are heavily aided by Raul Ibanez’s amazing year.

Of the present Mariners acquired this year to receive 100 or more plate appearances, only Ronny Cedeno has a lower OPS than anybody not on the list of departed Mariners apart from Ibanez.

Ryan Langerhans, who the Mariners acquired for Mike Morse has a career .718 OPS—which, if he reproduced, would also put him second on the list.

But the most notable departure this offseason, at least as it appeared before this season, was Putz.

Putz was sent to New York, where the Mets expected him to handle the eighth inning and set the table for single-season saves record holder Francisco Rodriguez. Injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued the already injury-prone Putz’s 2009 season, and he’s struggled to return to his 2007 form.

Also sent in that trade was Jeremy Reed, seemingly a logical choice to replace the injured Carlos Beltran. But Reed has bounced around the outfield and played four games at first base to find time in the lineup for the injury beleaguered Mets.

Win-Loss record isn’t a great measure of relievers.

But Zduriencik essentially acquired two members of the team’s starting rotation, a starting left fielder and center fielder, a solid contributing reliever, and the team’s present shortstop—in the wake of Yuniesky Betancourt’s pulled hamstring.

All of this was gained for an oft-injured closer, a soft-hitting infield prospect, an unfulfilled talent in the outfield, and a solid young reliever in Green.

It has been quite some time since I’ve personally felt trust—better phrased as faith—in a general manager, but Zduriencik has instilled that faith in even myself the harshest of critics.

I’ve offered opinions as to whether the Mariners should trade Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Adrian Beltre and several other players on the team. While those opinions won’t change, Zduriencik’s track record, albeit short, is a great one to this point.

Check out more of Casey's work at 5th Quarter Sports

Casey at the Bat | Pimentel Signing a Good One For M's

Casey Greer — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:19:35 -0400

The Mariners signed Guillermo Pimentel on Thursday, effectively stealing him from the Rangers , it may have proved that the Mariners aren’t committed, at least not to the hell or high water extent that the previous members of front office were, to their own specialized recipe for success, defense in this case.

Actually, perhaps the proper characterization is that the team has actually acquired a philosophy and stopped hiding from the evolution of baseball scouting.

Because you see, philosophy isn’t black and white by definition. The Mariners have shown adaptability this year, and an apparent shift in organizational emphasis. The previous regime seemed committed to using veterans, often high priced, generally with power and little regard for the strike zone in the batter’s box, or gimmicks on the mound.

Between Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Silva, Erik Bedard, and Kenji Johjima nearly every paradigm for success in the early 1900’s is represented.

When they decided to start Endy Chavez and employ three centerfielders in their outfield, I was skeptical. While Chavez is an interesting player at the plate, he’s far from what this team needed more of, soft hitting speedsters.

But the extra balls he got to that Raul Ibanez wouldn’t have helped make up for Ibanez departure. But Chavez got hurt, and the Mariners seemed to have no choice but to play Wladimir Balentien, a product of the Bill Bavasi regime.

They acquired Ryan Langerhans, a patient lefty with some power, some range in the outfield, and a solid contact bat. Langerhans will probably be absent from every All Star game for the rest of his career, but an Ibanez like career at the plate isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

The team has since replaced Chavez’s defensive prowess at a minimal cost and another position. Chris Woodward playing third should help to spare the team some losses defensively while Adrian Beltre recovers.

But Beltre wasn’t hitting, and at least for now, Woodward is. So the team’s added offense with minimal loss on defense in Langerhans, and Woodward’s task to maintain the poor hitting from Beltre up until his injury, it is possible that the team is a better overall team, despite no long-term answer for Beltre’s loss.

Then, by bringing Pimentel on board, the team made it clear that while a solid defense is a nice luxury, it is far from the sole contributor to overall success.

Bleeding Blue and Teal noted an article from Prospect Insider which criticized teams for spending less money during the draft in order to sign apparently more risky international prospects. I take issue however, with the notion that these players are more risky.

While conventional wisdom and individual anecdotes note that cultural differences could cause less players to achieve their potential from the international pool.

Players are younger coming from the international ranks, and athletic projections are also on the plates of international scouts. It’s hard to tell what a 16-year-old will look like in the bigs.

But from 2001-03, a range of draftees drafted between 6-8 years ago, there have been 47 first round and sandwich round draftees who haven’t stepped on a major league field, let alone contributed.

Dozens of others took a cup of coffee or disappointing tenure and either returned to the minors, or continue to disappoint at the big league level.

Besides, there wasn’t a surplus of power left-handed bats in this year’s draft. Dustin Ackley aside, there wasn’t a lefty with a set position and a good plate approach available. Actually, Ackley’s only included because I assume that he’ll be able to make the transition to either left or center field, though he played first base last season after Tommy John surgery.

However, Ackley’s signing bonus will probably be at least three times that of Pimentel.

Spending $2 million on an unproven commodity is far from ideal, but in this case, the Mariners were able to add somebody unique to their farm system. Something that they didn’t have an opportunity to acquire elsewhere.

Check out more of Casey's work, an MLB trade tracker and much more at 5th quarter sports.

Casey at the Bat | Hot Corner Replacements Following Morse Trade

Casey Greer — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 16:49:49 -0400

As the week ended, I’d planned on writing a column about how Jarrod Washburn should have never left Los Angeles for a Mariners uniform.

The Dodgers are overstocked with corner outfielders, and the Mariners were in need of a corner outfielder.

Then, Adrian Beltre’s imminent surgery was announced and the shift focused from replacing the slap-hitting Endy Chavez as decent-hitting Beltre's substitute. While Beltre hasn’t hit great this year, he has been probably an above-average major league offensive third baseman during his Mariners career and probably in the top five defensively.

After Saturday’s game, there was speculation on the radio about who should replace Beltre. The fan opinion seemed to be split between Mike Morse and Russell Branyan. Then Morse was traded to Washington for Ryan Langerhans.

There is nothing I can say that the guys at USS Mariner didn’t say before the trade happened about how well Langerhans fits on this roster.

However, while the subtraction of Morse comes at an inconvenient time, it may ultimately be the only residual value from the Freddy Garcia trade, which brought Miguel Olivo, Jeremy Reed, and Morse to Seattle.

I truly believe that Langerhans will supplant Wladimir Balentien in the Mariners starting lineup, and if he’s somewhat productive, he could end up in the two-hole.

Last season with the Nats, Langerhans posted a .380 OBP in 139 plate appearances. His 25 walks in that amount of time would place him third on the Mariners this season, just ahead of Franklin Gutierrez, who has 23 walks in 262 plate appearances.

Langerhans’ .162 ISO would rank him fourth among Mariners starters, just behind Jose Lopez. Note, however, that Lopez has a .290 OBP.

But Langerhans can’t play third base, and the Mariners need at least a two-month solution. Had the Beltre surgery happened earlier, the M’s may have looked to trade for Mark DeRosa, who, upon Beltre’s return, could move to shortstop, second base, or left field.

DeRosa is in St. Louis now, but the Mariners may be smart to look for another versatile defensive player with at least an average bat. Ideally, at least in my opinion, the player used to replace Beltre in the short term should be able to replace Yuniesky Betancourt or start elsewhere for the long term.

The Mariners best options at third base, at least this season, should be able to play other positions.

Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians

Peralta plays for the same team that just traded DeRosa. He’s a decent-fielding shortstop with some pop. He has hit 20 or more home runs in three of the past four seasons, and he hit 42 doubles last season.

Peralta has average patience at the plate with a career OBP about .068 higher than his BA.

In Peralta’s career he’s played 37 games at third base with an RF/9 of 2.79 and a fielding percentage of .978, both above league average.

Peralta is in the final year of his contract with the Indians, but the team has a $7 million option at the end of the season. Posting his lowest slugging percentage of the last four years, Peralta has also been criticized for his weight and may ultimately end up at third base anyways.

Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals

Teahen was somewhat famous before ever lacing up his cleats at the big league level, simply because of his mention in Moneyball.

Though most of the players the A’s drafted in that legendary draft have scuffled some in the bigs, Teahen has been generally consistent. A career .270/.333/.425 hitter, he’s been close to those numbers for his entire career.

Teahen doesn't have Beltre's defensive ability, and he is best suited to play in outfield long term. However, he won’t embarrass the club for six to eight weeks, and his left-handed bat could be more productive than Beltre has been.

Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles

Mora has been a jack-of-all-trades throughout his career, playing every position but pitcher and catcher. The 37-year-old has been planted at third base all season in 2009, as age has robbed him of some of his athletic ability.

Mora is something of an inconsistent glove man, but still has some range to make plays in the hole. However, he’s a decent hitter, and his $9 million may make the compensation to acquire him very little.

The Mariners may be able to trade Jarrod Washburn or Miguel Batista and someone like Denny Stark for Mora.

He’s not as athletic or as good a hitter as he was in the past, but Mora was the original version of Chone Figgins, which brings us to…

Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Figgins is a kind of the anti-Ichiro. Ichiro doesn’t walk, and only wants to play right field, despite his team friendly posturing previous to this season. By contrast, Figgins has played six positions throughout his career.

Ichiro only wants to bat leadoff. Figgins has started games at seven different spots in the batting order over his career.

Figgins would be an ideal replacement for Beltre, as no matter what happened between now and Beltre’s return, Figgins would always have a place in the starting lineup, barring injury.

The problem of course is that Figgins plays for a division rival, one which is currently in first place in the American League West.

Figgins will be a free agent at the end of the year, and while the Mariners are sure to be interested in him in the offseason, their glut of starting pitching may make a 2009 arrival possible.

The Angels have only two starters with an ERA under five. They’ve started 12 pitchers this season and have gotten worse-than-expected production from John Lackey and Ervin Santana, both of whom were injured to begin the season.

The Angels can replace Figgins with Maicer Izturis, another player the Mariners may target if a trade within the division is possible.

Check out more of Casey's work and other talented writers at 5th Quarter Sports

Forever a Bridesmaid? Cavaliers Whiff on the Bouquet in Another Bad Offseason

Casey Greer — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 12:11:28 -0400

By trading for Shaquille O’Neal, the Cleveland Cavaliers have once again put a band-aid on a bleeding wound.

Since LeBron James was drafted by the team, they’ve tried to “give him Scottie Pippen.” The way they’ve gone about it though, has been the equivalent of putting a body kit on a Pontiac Fiero and calling it a Ferrari.

Then, when the team drafted a developmental shooting guard from Congo, Christian Eyenga, who is more experienced playing small forward in a league most of us have never heard of, in the first round, with Jeff Pendergraph, Chase Budinger, and Nick Calathes still on the board, it only got worse.

With all the trades that occurred on draft night, they couldn’t trade up for Wayne Ellington? Darren Collison? Austin Daye?

The Cavaliers are built as though their front office compiles scouting reports by playing basketball video games and makes trades based on a player’s fantasy value.

The Cavs brass has paraded aging veterans, one-dimensional scorers, and hybrid tweeners through the team’s starting lineup, all in an effort to find Robin to James’ Batman.

But even without Robin, Batman has his butler, Alfred Pennyworth.

At the risk of detouring too far away from sports, the beauty of Alfred, at least in modern Batman adaptations, is that he is simply a butler. It doesn’t matter if Batman spent the night fighting crime or partying, Wayne Manor was always spotless and food was always served.

The Cavs' only adequately sized 2 or 3, apart from James, who can knock down a three pointer is Wally Szczerbiak. But Szczerbiak is a rough read on an average crossover away from ankle surgery, and he’s already a sub-par defender.

The team now has two centers with no mobility. At least O’Neal can play defense and pass out of the post, but did the Cavs really need another person to draw defensive attention to the key?

In Mo Williams, Delonte West, and Daniel Gibson, the team has three point guards who are suspect passers. Neither Williams nor West are true point guards, and while Gibson is a good defender, he’s too small to guard anybody but the opposing team’s point guard.

The Cavs have nobody to defend the opposition’s wings but James himself. If James is going to remain healthy and productive on the offensive end of the floor, he’ll need someone to take pressure off of him on occasion on the defensive end.

Between Larry Hughes, Ben Wallace, Ricky Davis, Zydrunas Ilgauskus, Flip Murray, Drew Gooden, Daniel Gibson, Delonte West, and Mo Williams, James hasn’t had a sidekick with a complete skill set and true position at any point in his career.

Hughes is a shooting guard who doesn’t shoot well. In an effort to rush success, an effort that would make Dr. Frankenstein proud, the Cavs attempted to play Hughes as a point guard, where he’s poorly suited.

Wallace is a center who can’t score and one who was nearing the end of his career when the Chicago Bulls signed him, even closer when the Cavs traded for him. His offensive “game” is better suited in Pheonix, where he’ll probably never shoot the ball from outside the key.

Davis has the size, athletic ability and skills to be a shooting guard. However, he’s got serious motivational issues and is selfish with the ball in his hands.

Ilgauskus is a very good finesse center. He’s a poor defender though, and not very athletic, allowing more athletic centers to embarrass him. He’s a bad passer, even for a big man, and is not as good a rebounder as he should be for his size.

Murray is a talented scorer. He has a solid first step and handles the ball well. However, he’s undersized to play shooting guard, doesn’t pass the ball, and plays defense like a cat chasing a laser pointer.

Delonte West is probably more talented than he’s given credit for. He’s not an awful backup combo guard, but as a backup is where undersized combo guards are best suited.

Mo Williams is a score-first point guard. He’s not a great passer, and is undersized. He can be neutralized with a properly sized average defender with quickness.

Williams is the present side kick, but on his best day he’s a poor man’s Gilbert Arenas.

Arenas, also a shoot-first point guard, simply doesn’t possess the complete skillset to fulfill all of the duties of his position.

The Cavs have attempted to sprint their way to a championship. They’ve tried to make their team, their star, and their city as marketable as possible. All of this has come at the detriment of long term team success.

With James, the Cavaliers will be a perennial playoff contender. Without help, they’ll be a perennial disappointment.

James is constantly compared to Michael Jordan. But Jordan had a slew of contributors with defined roles. Though Scotty Pippen was one of the NBA’s top 50 players—at least in the eyes of the voters, it was guys like Steve Kerr, Horace Grant, B.J. Armstrong, Dennis Rodman, Toni Kukoc, John Paxson, and Luc Longley that helped the team sustain success.

Apart from Rodman, none of those players offer any threat to take up space with a plaque bearing their name in the Basketball Hall of Fame.

But role players need a role, not just minutes or shots.

Each one had a defined role, and fulfilled every aspect of that role to a necessary extent.

Not every king needs a prince, but every successful government needs dukes and lords, or at least their modern equivalent.

Granted, the business model of the pre-lockout Bulls dynasty was quite impossible in today’s NBA, but that seems like all the more reason to pick players with an actual position, with a tangible ability to contribute, not just a lot of potential to be very good.

Imagine if the Red Sox acquired Ryan Howard to play shortstop, simply because he’s a better offensive player than the team’s other shortstops.

Imagine if the Bears decided that they’d convert a cornerback into a wide receiver to give them an explosive offensive threat—whoops, sorry Devin Hester. Hello mediocrity.

At least the team found a player with a position in the second-round. Danny Green is a small forward and won’t be mistaken for anything else.

But therein lies the problem: What position is James? Is he a shooting guard or small forward?

The team mixes and matches James wherever it is convenient. It isn’t atypical for a team to ask a player, even their star player, to man a different position for a stretch of a game, or perhaps a few games during a season. But James has played different positions for full seasons at a time.

Take a look at the last two NBA champions.

The Celtics threw together a team of All-Stars, but those All-Stars: Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, all have a position of their own. Both Pierce and Garnett were asked to play multiple positions early in their careers with limited team success.

In Los Angeles the structure is the same, essentially. The team could use improvement at the point guard position for the long term, but roles are defined from top to bottom in the starting lineup.

Maybe O'Neal's $20 million coming off the cap will bring Robin, or Pippen, or whoever you want to call him to Cleveland after next season, one of the most anticipated offseasons in NBA history.

The team has only $35 million committed in that offseason to present players. But is this front office really equipped to make the right decision when the time comes?

Greatness is a terrific spectacle, but even the greatest need facilitators to achieve elite success.

Casey at the Bat | Endy Out, Step It Up Wlad...Or Else

Casey Greer — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 19:32:39 -0400

When Endy Chavez and Yuniesky Betancourt collided in shallow left field, I had one reaction: “Endy’s career is over.”

Then, when he was rolling over on the grass holding his knee, I felt bad for prophesying the eventual end to his career. He’s a slap-hitting, speed-oriented outfielder, and serious knee injury is the equivalent to a motorcycle with a flat tire.

The injury is unfortunate, but it may ultimately lead to the Mariners having a more potent offense. Wladimir Balentien has significantly more power-potential than Chavez, and while he doesn’t have the range in left field that Chavez has, he’s far from a statue in the outfield.

Balentien hasn’t ever had a full-time opportunity this long as a major leaguer, but appears to be the heir apparent in left field.

He’s been assured the left field spot by Don Wakamatsu, but that may not be long lived.

If Balentien isn’t able to produce offensively, or becomes a defensive liability, the Mariners have a couple of potential replacements for him.

I’m a big believer in development via competition, and either way, Balentien or another player, this has potential to be a positive for the Mariners.

As part of the J.J. Putz trade, the Mariners acquired Mike Carp. There has been a groundswell of support to bring the overlooked first baseman to the big league club. He’s here now as a result of injuries and a rough streak of family issues for Mariners position players, but could be here to stay.

Though Carp has played 465 minor league games at first base, he’s also played 56 in left field. He isn’t an ideal option defensively, but if his bat makes up for his legs in the outfield, he could be on Balentien’s heels.

Carp is left-handed and walks a lot, which may make him a strong candidate to take over in left.

Like Carp, Michael Saunders is left-handed and walks. He’s one of the Mariners top prospects and hits for about as much power as Carp. He’s an outfielder by trade, so theoretically he’d be less of a liability than Carp.

The Mariners have shown reluctance to bring Saunders up, but his major league chances may improve greatly if Carp and Balentien struggle.

If Balentien, Carp, and Saunders aren’t options for whatever reason, the Mariners may look to trade for a left fielder, and could get creative at that point.

On Friday, I detailed some of the potential trade targets the Mariners may go after, using their surplus of left-handed starters as bait. The best player named was Carl Crawford. However, there are a few new, interesting names that could pop up on radars.

Lance Berkman hasn’t played outfield in two season, but at one time the hefty lefty played all three outfield positions. Injuries and weight issues have jettisoned him to first base, but in the right circumstance, he may patrol the outfield grass again.

Berkman is hitting .241/.378/.487 this year, and while those numbers aren’t among his most impressive, he’d have the second-highest OPS on the Mariners.

Astros owner Drayton McLane has become notorious for thinking that his team remains in contention for too long. The Astros could use help in their starting rotation, and may gladly trade Berkman for Jarrod Washburn and a middling prospect in order to relieve their budget.

The Twins have received inconsistent starts from most of their starting rotation all year. Francisco Liriano has struggled continuing his return from Tommy John surgery, and the rest of the youngsters, apart from Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey, have been inconsistent.

As much as it seems the team has tried to replace Michael Cuddyer, no matter where he’s played (six positions, not including DH). At one time he was the team’s full-time third baseman, and has played a ton of right field.

He’s hitting .275/.355/.509 this year with a .864 OPS. A guy who hits, walks, and can play all over the diamond would be an absolute coup, and give the Mariners a ton of flexibility going forward.

In Friday’s column, I mentioned Hideki Matsui, an aging Japanese slugger from the Yankees. But the Yankees may have another outfielder that the Mariners may be interested in.

Nick Swisher has never lived up to the billing he received in Moneyball, but he’d add much needed pop and plate discipline to the Mariners lineup. Despite his continued mediocre batting average, his .886 OPS would be second on the Mariners, in large part due to his 46 walks, which would lead the Mariners by a long shot.

I wish Endy Chavez a speedy recovery and hopefully a continued career. However, I’ve never been a proponent of his production, and actually think that his injury will help the Mariners offense.

Happy Father’s Day to my own dad, and all of the other Dads out there.

Casey at the Bat | Lefty Starter Surplus Could and Should Bring a Bat

Casey Greer — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 20:49:39 -0400

To begin this column, I’d like to extend a heartfelt sympathy to Russell Branyan, Jose Lopez and Rob Johnson, who have all been impacted by family illness or death in recent days.

In my last column about the Mariners, I detailed how Erik Bedard may have vaulted into the top spot in terms of trade commodities in the starting rotation. He subsequently went on the 15-day disabled list, but before that, Griffin Cooper used an interesting word to describe the Mariners pitching rotation; abundance.

With the untradeable arm of Carlos Silva included, the Mariners have received starts from nine different players this season.

Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner Mike Salk has gone into detail this week on 710 ESPN – Seattle as to his belief that the Mariners could be both buyers and sellers approaching the trade deadline.

They way they would do this, in all likelihood, would be to trade from a surplus. The Mariners have a bunch of left-handed starting pitching, an overvalued commodity, but a market that the Mariners may be able to take advantage of without giving up on this season.

Jack Zduriencik has proven something of a master of “buying low,” netting Jason Vargas and Garrett Olson, two of the Mariners starters, and Russell Branyan all for peanuts, comparably speaking.

It remains to be seen though, if he’s able to take his own commodities (which appears to be his view of players), separate emotion, pride, and unfounded hope, and flip them for another substantial gain.

If Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Ryan Rowland-Smith all get healthy soon, the Mariners may face tough decisions as to who to remove from the rotation, or the big club entirely.

But Bedard’s stock is volatile. He’s injury-prone, atypical, and surely has different valuations by different clubs around the league. He’s not included on this list, because a trade of Bedard would likely signal a surrender in 2009, while a trade of another, lesser starter may not.

Jason Vargas has pitched very well this season, and apart from the rough fifth inning in Colorado last week, which didn’t turn south until the rain hit, he’s been stellar as a starter. Going into that start, Vargas had improved on his career average BABIP against, but not by an unsustainable margin, and he has seen modest gains in nearly every other contemporary pitching evaluation statistic.

Garrett Olson on the other hand, has a .150 BABIP against paired with an ERA over four and a something of statistical oddity, a .198 BAA. Batters are batting at a higher average than BABIP because Olson has given up eight home runs (which don’t count toward BABIP), and is surrendering a .277 ISO. Assuming Olson can’t hold opposing batters below the Mendoza line for the entire season, in all likelihood, his production will recede.

A lot has been made about Jarrod Washburn’s two-seam fastball and an altered pitching approach. A traditionally fly-ball-oriented pitcher, Washburns groundball-fly ball ratios are on par with his career averages. I attribute much of Washburn’s success to the Chavez-Gutierrez-Suzuki outfield which covers a lot of ground.

Here’s an interesting set of statistics.

Chavez-Gutierrez-Suzuki Combined Outfield

7.85 RF/9

League Average Combine Outfield

7.01 RF/9

2008 Mariners Combine Outfield

6.87 RF/9

(Baseball Reference displays different numbers, but doesn’t account for innings played by Wladimir Balentien in 2008)

League Average Combined Outfield

7.09 RF/9

The Mariners make essentially one more out in the outfield per nine innings this season that last, but compared to league averages, they’ve picked up even more.

The Mariners have an almost league average GB/FB ratio. League average is .76 and the Mariners are at .75. However Vargas, Olson, and Washburn have .67, .51, and .63 ratios respectively. The trio throws significantly more fly balls than league average.

Considering that, it’s conceivable that each pitcher may actually allow the outfield to make close to another quarter out per nine innings on average than the team’s combined pitching staff.

Going to another team, Washburn, Vargas and Olson would be sure to see drops in production, despite their improved 2009 campaigns.

The market for the three isn’t established, there hasn’t been a major trade to this point in the baseball season. This economic situation is unprecedented in this era of baseball, and it really isn’t clear what effect it will have on the trade market, apart from teams being hesitant to add salary. We may see some NBA-like salary dumps, or some very lopsided on-field trades made for financial reasons.

Here are some possibilities for the Mariners:

Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Ethier’s left handed bat would be a welcome addition in left field. He’s got some pop (11 home runs this season) and he walks a lot. He’s got some speed, though he doesn’t steal a lot of bases. He could be the answer in the two hole that would move Branyan to the three hole, where his abilities would be better-utilized.

The Dodgers aren’t exactly reeling from the losses of Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, boasting the best record in baseball, but that doesn’t mean that their pieced-together rotation will hold up all season. The Dodgers barely dodged an ugly arbitration hearing with Ethier last year, and will be facing the same dilemma this offseason.

The Dodgers have four outfielders and little financial flexibility. Vargas or Olson would probably be the ideal fits here, though the dodgers may be reluctant to add a lefty to a rotation which follows Chad Billingsley with Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw.

Kelly Johnson, 2b and/or Jeff Francoeur, OF, Atlanta Braves

The Braves have two under-performing players in their mid-20s, both of whom are in the midst of their arbitration years: Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur. While Francoeur has struggled this season, he’s put up numbers very similar to Franklin Gutierrez, and if he were part of the compensation in a Jarrod Washburn trade, he could be a major coup for the Mariners.

Johnson is a left-handed batting second baseman who walks. The Mariners may not want to replace Jose Lopez, who has come on strong of late and been the hero in most clutch situations this year, but Johnson can also play left field if necessary.

If the two were traded for Washburn and Jeff Clement, both teams could benefit. Washburn may not see a major drop off in the pitcher-friendly confines in Atlanta, and the Braves would be able to unload two under-performers. The Mariners may have to eat some of Washburn’s remaining salary, as there is a $3 million gap between Washburn’s salary and the combined salary of Johnson and Francoeur.

Clement would add depth to the Braves behind both Brian McCann and Casey Kotchman, and may be able to play some left field if necessary.

Hideki Matsui, OF, New York Yankees

The Yankees shouldn’t be looking to add anyone who pitches fly balls in their new wind-tunnel of a stadium; but the team may become desperate as the trade deadline approaches. The Bombers give up more than five runs per game and it appears that Chien-Ming Wong’s days in the starting rotation may be over.

Matsui is a shell of his former self, and makes $13 million this year, but his .816 OPS would be good for third on this Mariners club, and his 10 homeruns would tie him for second. Unlike plugging Francoeur or Ethier into the outfield, if the Mariners decided to play Matsui in left they’d lose a good deal of range relative to Endy Chavez, but the offensive upgrade may make up for it.

Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Trading for Crawford may be wishful thinking. He’s one of the best young players in baseball, but the ever-frugal Rays will have to pay Crawford more than they may be able to afford. Crawford has $18.25 million worth of club options in the next two seasons.

The Mariners may have to give up one of Olson and Vargas, as well as Jeff Clement and/or David Aardsma to make a trade like this happen, maybe more.

Crawford is 27 years old, and is on pace for nearly 100 stolen bases this season, is not a bad offensive threat either. He’s got a .817 OPS, and with moderate power would be an ideal fit in the two hole.

Michael Vick and Donte' Stallworth: Injustice Served

Casey Greer — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 08:04:54 -0400

Less than one month after Michael Vick was released from Leavenworth, a military penitentiary, after 19 months served, Donte' Stallworth began a 30-day jail sentence.

Almost a year ago I wrote an article about how Josh Hamilton and Ricky Williams were so differently characterized by the media despite their very similar pasts. The point I attempted to make was that while Williams has been rightfully vilified and deserves no sympathy, Hamilton has been unduly celebrated.

Another injustice occurred when Stallworth was sentenced, but unlike the comparison of Williams to Hamilton, the centerpiece of the injustice is not race, but species.

During Vick’s legal process, there was something of a racial uproar, and while I feel that there was a cultural bias, I don’t think that race was the culprit.

I recently visited a good friend of mine in Atlanta. He owns two pit bulls. At the end of a beverage-heavy night, he, I, and a few of his friends were all talking in his back yard. I asked if any of them had been to a dog fight. They all said no. I asked if they’ve heard of any dog fights, and the answers became a lot less negative.

Truth be told, whether it is crawfish or coffee beans, hula skirts or halter tops, marijuana or methamphetamines, there are simply things that go on in regions of this country, right and wrong, that the rest of the country simply won’t understand.

When Vick called his acts a “mistake” he was criticized. He attempted to pass a despicable lifestyle off with the same term of remorse as one would use when waking up late for work or parking illegally.

Vick was wrong, he’s a criminal, and he was given a sentence that, at least to some extent, fit the crime.

If we are in fact from whence we came, be it the product of poverty or prosperity, is persecution the mandatory reaction to the exposure of origin?

When Vick was suspected of animal cruelty, the hyper-liberal Northwest (where I’m from) had convicted him in their own minds already. It wasn’t because he was black, but because animals have grown to have more rights in the public conscience than humans, which is the crux of the problem.

We have become desensitized to human death and suffering in this country. From Darfur to Honduras, from Italy to Iraq, news stories have become a fashion statement, a status symbol, a beacon for hipness.

Recovery is no longer measured in quality of life, but pallet quantities of aid supplies and measurements cease when a newer, sexier, trendier plight is established.

Vick killed dogs, he fought dogs, he tortured dogs, and he facilitated the same heinous acts even when his hands weren’t bloody.

He’s been in the news for the better part of two years as a result.

Stallworth killed a human being. A man’s life ended because Stallworth, knowingly impaired, got behind the wheel of a car. A man with a family, a history, a past, no longer has a life because of Stallworth. Stallworth was sentenced to one twenty-third the sentence that Vick got.

But human death is boring and overplayed.

Stallworth’s accident was a display of bad judgment, but he wasn’t playing with his stereo or text messaging—he was drunk. He didn’t make a mistake; he made a decision, or more accurately, multiple decisions. Multiple bad decisions.

Somehow, Stallworth has come out of this case looking like a decent guy. He didn’t flee the scene, he expressed remorse, and he’s reached out to the family of the deceased. However, that does not excuse the action that led to his remorse.

Acting properly after the incident doesn’t absolve sin.

Perhaps, though, familiarity is what has led to our leniency. Each of us probably knows someone who has, or have ourselves, driven impaired in the last week, month, or year.

Driving intoxicated has become as much a laughing as a legal matter. A DUI is often met with the same reaction as a speeding ticket: “It sucks he got caught.”

As part of Stallworth’s plea agreement, he agreed to pay $2,500 to Mothers Against Drunk Driving. He reached a financial settlement with the family of the deceased, avoiding a civil suit.

Remorse isn’t reincarnation or revival, and reconciliation shouldn’t be measured in dollar figures, though it often is.

But dogs don’t have bank accounts.

That doesn’t mean, however, that Vick hasn’t suffered financially.

Vick filed for bankruptcy, was released from a contract worth more than $100 million, and has lost two years in his chosen profession directly from his athletic prime.

People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) has been at the forefront of Vick critics. They’ve demonstrated at hearings, and organized a campaign for Vick to educate people on animal rights upon his release from prison.

But like many activists groups, they’ve leapt the murky moat between motivation and agenda.

PETA works toward equality between human and animal rights, but when did equality become a relative term?

For that matter, when did ethics become a catch phrase?

Human lives have inherited a monetary value, effectively cheapening their inherent value. But when did humane and humanity lose their first five letters?

Perhaps sports are a poor outlet and a bad parallel for societal woes, but it appears that the judicial system is trading human lives for animal lives at pennies on the dollar.

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Casey at the Bat | Jake Peavy Injury Could Benefit Seattle Mariners

Casey Greer — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 18:08:07 -0400

A partial tear in Jake Peavy’s ankle ligament may cause experts to shred their perception of the starting pitcher trade market as the baseball season nears the trade deadline, and it’s possible that the Mariners could become the beneficiary.

Peavy’s injury, initially expected to keep the righty out for a month, could keep him out for 8-12 weeks according to recent reports.

The injury to Peavy bumped Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn up a spot each on the list of prospective trade commodities, but it may have moved Bedard into the top spot among starting pitchers.

This July was expected to be one of the most fruitful trade markets in the history of baseball in terms of top-of-the-rotation pitchers.

Erik Bedard was near the top of a list that could include guys like Cliff Lee, Brad Penny, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Roy Oswalt, and Brandon Webb.

But each of the other players has significant caveats that could get in the way of them being traded in a traditional deadline deal.

Halladay and Penny both play for present contenders. Halladay has become the face of the Blue Jays franchise, so even if the Blue Jays drop out of the AL East race, J.P. Ricciardi’s hesitance to talk trade with the former Cy Young Award winner may prove genuine.

Penny plays for the Red Sox, who will likely look to move the righty for a shortstop or designated hitter at the major league level, rather than a bunch of prospects.

Lee won last year’s Cy Young award, and plays on a team that should be better than they are. While his 3.17 ERA remains impressive, batters are hitting .048 points higher against him and slugging .054 higher this season.

His value may not be at its peak, and many teams may use the 2008 season may be viewed as an aberration, not a trend.

Webb has been sidelined by a shoulder injury most of this season, and has a relatively inexpensive club option next season ($8.5 million). Those two factors could make him more valuable for the Diamondbacks to hang onto than to trade.

Greinke plays on a team that has spent the better part of two decades—erm – controlling payroll. However, the team has shown willingness to spend money in the past few years, inking Gil Meche and Jose Guillen to large contracts.

Greinke’s only 25 years old, and signed to a four-year, $38 million extension, meaning he won’t break the Royals bank in the next few years.

Perhaps the most comparable, least obstructed pitcher that could be available is Oswalt. He is 31, and has been generally consistent throughout his career.

But Oswalt is a favorite of Astros owner Drayton McLane, which could make his perceived value higher than his market value, and is owed $45 million over the next three years. His 2009 salary, $14 million, is nearly double that of Bedard.

So it is entirely possible that Bedard will be the most sought-after trade piece to solidify a team’s starting rotation. If he does slide into the top spot, it’s possible that an offer akin to the four-player offer from the White Sox to the Padres could come the Mariners way.

The Padres agreed to the deal, but Peavy vetoed it under his no-trade clause.

Bedard’s only real caveat is team success. If the Mariners are in contention, he simply might not be available. Perhaps another caveat, though not unique on the aforementioned list of starters, is his potential Type A free agent status.

That will mean that his perceived value is that of at least equal compensation as a first round pick and a pick in the Compensatory A round.

The Mariners rotation is actually crowded right now, a nice problem to have. With Ryan Rowland-Smith still on the disabled list, Brandon Morrow likely headed to Triple A to stretch his arm out, and Carlos Silva still on the disabled list, the team could legitimately have eight starters for five spots heading into the trade deadline.

Bedard is a good pitcher, but he’s not irreplaceably talented.

Even if the Mariners are successful, and contending for an AL West title, they may be forced to entertain an offer like the one the White Sox and Padres agreed to.

That offer would have sent four minor leaguers to the Padres, including Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard, ranked as the team’s second- and third-best prospects by Baseball America respectively.

The Mariners appear committed to rebuilding, and unless they can sign Bedard to an extension by the trade deadline, whether buyers or sellers, it may be responsible for the team to sell high on Bedard.

Casey at the Bat | Predictions, Playoffs, Ackley

Casey Greer — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:58:16 -0400

I’m no Nostradamus. Hell, I’m not even in Miss Cleo. I am to baseball psychics and prognostication what the guy who guesses weights is to the carnival. I take an educated guess, throw a dart in the dark, and hope that the result is in some way flattering.

My claim to fame is guessing that Barry Bonds would one day hold the home run record in the middle of the 1998 season, and then calling him a steroid user before the BALCO scandal. That’s it.

However, in the 2009 season, I’ve caught lightning in a bottle.

During spring training, before this column was called Casey at the Bat, before the Seattle tag had featured columns, I criticized Brandon Morrow’s decision to re-enter the bullpen. A little over two months later, the former top pick has plans to return to the starting rotation.

A week later I detailed how Jarrod Washburn may benefit from Franklin Gutierrez playing center field. Washburn has pitched his way to a 3.07 ERA with a 1.194 WHIP.

Two weeks after that, I explained that the Mariners should think about beginning negotiations with Erik Bedard. I explained that last year was probably something of a culture shock for the Canadian. About a week ago he professed his like for the city of Seattle.

In an early May article I detailed the Mariners marathon victory over the Oakland Athletics. In that article I stated that Jason Vargas had “rotation worthy stuff,” a month later he has a 2.35 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP.

On May 8 I predicted an “injury” for Carlos Silva. Albeit “apparently” a more “serious injury,” Silva went on the DL two days later.

In mid May, I plagiarized, well, the entire Seattle sports media. I wrote, “Yuniesky Betancourt shouldn’t be allowed to continue playing shortstop, or batting, if he’s going to treat the position like a T-Ball game. Betancourt has played well the last few games, but if he reverts back to his 'filling his baseball glove with dirt' ways, he should be benched in favor of Cedeno.” Betancourt is now alternating half-weeks off with Cedeno.

Then, I offered a statistical analysis of Felix Hernandez’s entire career as a starter including the catchers he’s thrown to, and how Kenji Johjima has consistently caught the worst games of any catcher. Johjima got hurt, and since then Felix has reeled off four starts with a 2-0 record, a 0.94 ERA, and a 1.151 WHIP. If you read the article, just wait, there is a “Put Guillermo Quiroz in Felix’s Hip Pocket” column on the way.

Five days later, in a far less heroic effort, I projected Rich Poythress as a guy the Mariners may target in the draft. They took him with their 51st pick.

Then my crowning prediction came true. Two days after that, I wrote a column about how Russell Branyan was being grossly under-utilized in the five hole. Two days later Branyan dug in batting second. Branyan’s remained consistent, hitting .310/.417/.655, but the Mariners are 6-2 in that time period.

Nine predictions. Nine more than I got correct last season. But screw Kenny Rogers (the singer, not the pitcher), I don’t know when to fold ‘em, and I don’t care when it is time to hold ‘em. I’m ready to let it ride.

This column isn’t meant to toot my own horn. Believe me, I’m an awful prognosticator of any subject. Work with me here though—The Mariners are going to make the playoffs.

Sure they just cracked .500. Sure the Rangers have looked very good this season. Sure, even the Angels are getting healthier after starting their season with a beat up team. The pitching probably can’t keep this up, and the team may not be able to afford any premium player trades this year.

The Mariners need two bats in my prediction to become a serious playoff contender. With the loyalties held to certain players (Griffey, Ichiro) and the difficulty to upgrade at certain positions (Beltre, Lopez, Gutierrez), the Mariners are left with very few options in terms of acquirable talent and playing time.

However, I think that there are two hitters in the organization that could make the difference.

I’ve been a long time critic of Ichiro. I’ve said he’s immensely more valuable in center field, and if he’s going to be billed as the team’s top hitter, he shouldn’t be batting leadoff. If Ichiro moved to the two hole and Branyan move to the three hole, I believe that the Mariners would score more runs, period.

Then there’s Dustin Ackley. The Mariners drafted the lefty second-overall a few days ago. Though he’s not an excellent power hitter, he’s one of the more advanced bats the draft has seen in quite some time.

There are two caveats with Ackley, one, he’s a Scott Boras client, so his signability is inherently questionable, and two, he’ll need some time in the minors before the Mariners will call him up.

There are however, some rays of hope in both departments.

With the Brewers, Jack Zduriencik was responsible for drafting several top ten picks. Prince Fielder, Mark Rogers, and Matt LaPorta signed in June. Fielder and LaPorta are Boras clients.

Rickie Weeks, not a Boras client, signed in August, but made his major league debut a month later. That was on a bad Brewers team, but Weeks wasn’t as advanced as an amateur as Ackley.

Zduriencik hasn’t necessarily been instrumental in the signing of all of those players, but at the very least he doesn’t come with the same Boras baggage as the previous Mariners general managers.

Call it wishful thinking, or call it dementia, but if the baseball gods are shining on me for once, I owe it to all Mariners fans to make this prediction, however misguided.