Bleacher Report - Articles by OC Domer

You Are What Your Record Says You Are Charlie

OC Domer — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:12:39 -0500

After the Fighting Irish suffered their humiliating loss to Syracuse last November, I wrote that I was done defending Charlie Weis . My conclusion to that article was:

If it was my call, I'd give him another year, provided he could present a serious plan for addressing the team's glaring deficiencies (i.e., at the very least getting a new offensive line coach). After all, as ugly as it is, this team really is close to being 9-2 right now.

If Swarbrick decides to keep Weis I'll support him, if Charlie is let go I'd be okay with that too. However it goes, the Irish are my team, Notre Dame is my University, and I'll be sending in my Sorin Society donation at Christmas time.

But I'm done defending Charlie Weis. How can you defend the indefensible?

The Irish are my team. Notre Dame is my University. And I'll always support and cheer for my alma mater. But a year after the Syracuse disaster and one day after the second consecutive home loss to the Midshipmen of the U.S. Naval Academy, I have to say that if it was my call I'd give another coach a chance to lead Notre Dame's football program.

That was not easy for me to type, because unlike a lot of folks, I really like Charlie Weis. I find him a sympathetic figure on a personal level, and I think he is largely misunderstood.

Charlie is a real Notre Dame guy who understands the importance of bringing in athletes of real character who are committed to getting their Notre Dame degrees. He is an excellent recruiter. I hope that the next Head Football Coach at Notre Dame does as well as Coach Weis in these important areas.

Charlie is fond of quoting his coaching mentor, Bill Parcells. One of Coach Parcells' most well known maxims is that "you are what your record says you are." With three regular season games to play in the 2009 season, Charlie Weis is a mediocre head coach.

Through 59 games Charlie has 35 wins against 24 losses, for a 0.593 winning percentage. Just under 60% after almost five years.

He is 0-5 against USC.
He is 2-3 against Michigan
He is 1-2 against Boston College
He is 2-3 against Michigan State
He is 3-2 against Navy

But he has owned Stanford (4-0) and Purdue (4-1).

Under Charlie the Irish have played ranked opponents 15 times, and have gone 4-11 in those games. The last win over a ranked opponent was a 41-17 home win over #17 Penn State on September 9, 2006, when Notre Dame were ranked fourth. Since then the Irish have lost NINE straight games to ranked teams. Even against unranked teams, Charlie is only winning at a 70% clip (31-13).

Navy is not a bad football team. They very nearly beat Ohio State in Columbus earlier this season. Navy is a good football team.

But Notre Dame does not aspire to be competitive against good football teams. Notre Dame aspires, ultimately, to be great. Being a great football team means comfortably and consistently beating good football teams. It means being competitive with and winning your share of games against elite teams.

Under Coach Weis the Irish have never beaten an elite football team. Never. In 2009 his team has struggled mightily to win games against teams that would have to be considered "average". Last minute wins over Washington, Purdue, and Michigan State are exciting and show some character, but they are not enough.

Games against teams of that caliber should be boring workman-like wins, not nail-biters. They should be mere tune-ups to get the team ready to beat USC or win a BCS bowl game. This season Notre Dame has only beaten two teams convincingly (Nevada and Washington State), and those teams are truly among the weakest in the nation.

Is it fair that a decision to fire a coach should come down to a missed field goal that should have been an automatic three points? Or two missed field goals? Or a fumble at midfield on the opening drive? Or a fumble at the one-yard line as the team is about to score? Or a freak pass that bounces off the back of a receiver and is intercepted?

Is it fair that Coach Weis should lose his job when, arguably, it was really the defense that cost Notre Dame the game?

One could flip the questions around. Suppose the freshman kicker makes a couple of kicks and the Irish beat Navy by a point or by a touchdown. Does Notre Dame really want to be led by a head coach that is barely able to eke out close wins against Navy at home?

Not any more. It is clear to me that Charlie is an excellent quarterback coach and offensive coordinator. But it is equally clear that his teams too frequently show up on game day unprepared to play. Usually it's a question of emotions and intensity.

Sometimes (like Saturday) it is a matter of game plan and schematics. Against Navy our defensive coaches got worked by the Navy coaches. They absolutely schooled us. Ultimately, the head coach has to take responsibility for failures on both sides of the ball. Charlie has had five years to put a credible defensive staff together.

To his credit he has been willing to replace the weak links on his staff when it was obvious that it needed to be done. But waiting until the need for a new direction is obvious to a fan watching from Orange County is a failure to recognize problems quickly enough.

The defensive staff belongs to him, and the five years of mediocrity on defense belongs to him too. Being an offensive genius is not enough for a head coach. A head coach has to be accountable for what happens on both sides of the ball.

As for the offensive genius, what the heck is going on in the Red Zone? Against Navy the Irish scored just twice in six Red Zone chances, after moving up and down the field at will against the middies. Why is the offense stalling out inside the five yard line?

The bottom line is, despite some very impressive offensive production from Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate, and Michael Floyd, this team continues to perform well below the level expected of the Fighting Irish.

I suppose Charlie might still save his job. There are two ranked opponents left on the schedule (Pitt and Stanford), and the team knows by now that the head coach's job is on the line.

They might surprise us all and dominate those two teams and U-Conn, ending the regular season at 9-3. Despite everything, it'd be tough to fire a guy who has stocked the roster with talent and gone 9-3.

Assuming that doesn't happen, I would expect Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick to drop the hammer right after the Stanford game. Announce that a change will be made, ask Coach Weis to remain through the bowl game, and name the replacement coach quickly so that the new guy and his staff can begin working as quickly as possible to keep the committed recruits on board while finishing up a decent recruiting class.

If Charlie goes, I fully expect that we'll lose Jimmy Clausen to the NFL. He'll likely be in New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony and still might win the darn thing. He's rated very high by the scouts and would likely go very high in the NFL Draft.

As fun as it would be to stick around and throw the ball to Golden Tate and Michael Floyd for another year, the fact is that the offensive line will have to be largely re-tooled for next season and everyone would have to learn a new offensive system - one that might not be as pass-happy as the Weis system.

As for Coach Weis' successor, I am sure Jack Swarbrick has some excellent candidates in mind. The new guy will have to be proven head coach at the pro level or the Div-1A college level. Think Ara Parseghian, Frank Leahy, or Lou Holtz. Not Gerry Faust, Boob Davie, or Charlie Weis.

He must be a person who can be relied upon to uphold the high standards of the University of Notre Dame both on and off the field. He has to be a person of integrity who will be committed to bringing in players of character who are willing and able to perform in the classroom and earn their degrees.

I don't think Urban Liar or Nick Satan meet fit description. I would rather that Notre Dame football become a Division II program with integrity than see it sell its soul by bringing in a coach of that ilk. Yes, I am dead serious.

One of the things that makes me most proud to be a Domer is that I know that the kids we bring to South Bend are going to class and that they will leave Notre Dame after four years with a world class education and a meaningful degree.

I'll post later about who the next head coach should be. I haven't done my background research yet. But I'll admit that I've always like Jon Gruden.

I'll reiterate that I like Charlie Weis. He "gets" Notre Dame and has always acted with dignity and class in representing the University. I wish it had worked out better. But you are what your record says you are, and his record screams "mediocre."

Three Reasons Why Michigan's Cheating Scandal Is Serious

OC Domer — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:26:30 -0400

The big news in college football the past couple of days has been the report that coach Rich Rodriguez and the University of Michigan football program have been systematically cheating by mandating that players participate in football activities for hours well in excess of the daily and weekly limits set by NCAA rules.

It has been surprising to me that much of the early spin from the talking heads at places like ESPN has largely been of the "If you're not cheating, you're not trying" variety. Commentators are basically accusing the former and current Michigan football players of whining about the hard work required to play Division I football, even at a lesser program like Michigan's. (Cheap shot. Sorry. Not.)

Here, very quickly, is why I think the current scandal at U-M ought to be taken very seriously.

1. It's an integrity issue.

As an NCAA institution, Michigan has agreed to abide by a certain set of rules. If they knowingly and consistently break those rules, they are cheaters, and it is fair to call their integrity into question. If I were a U-M official, employee, alumnus, or student, I would probably not want my university's integrity ridiculed.

This doesn't appear to be an isolated incident either, as Dick Rod's integrity has been questioned since the day he left West Virginia for Michigan (and tried to renege on his contract buyout clause at WVU).

2. Competitive balance.

There's a group of football players at Western Michigan University who are getting ready to play the Wolverines this Saturday. The Broncos already have to contend with playing against a team full of superior athletes. Now they have to contend with playing a team full of superior athletes that is breaking the rules to gain an unfair competitive advantage.

That sucks for WMU, and it isn't fair to any team on Michigan's schedule (including Notre Dame).

Do you remember how OUTRAGEOUS steroid use was in baseball, because it created an unfair competitive advantage? How OUTRAGEOUS the New England Patriots' filming from the sidelines was because it created an unfair competitive advantage? Consistently getting more hours of supervised workouts or mandatory training or coaching sessions in each week is an unfair advantage every bit as serious as either of those situations.

3. These are STUDENT athletes.

At least they are supposed to be. Michigan has already been identified as one of the football factories that steers its players (mostly its black players) into worthless academic majors and then fails to graduate them.

They are already under criticism for sacrificing the education of their student athletes on the altar of football, so you would think that U-M administrators would be paying a little more attention to the academic progress of their student athletes.

Even at a school like Michigan, only a handful of players will ever play football professionally. The vast majority of student athletes will need to find another way to make a living, and they SHOULD be able to fall back on a Michigan education.

I have no doubt that Dick Rod and his assistant coaches go into the homes of their targeted high school recruits and sell the academic excellence of the University of Michigan. No doubt they promise these kids' moms and dads that their son will get a world-class education at U of M.

But if the football coaches are placing unreasonable and illegal demands on the students' time, it is clear that the coach and the University do not consider actual education to be a high priority—which is a moral problem as well as an integrity problem.

If these allegations about Coach Rodriguez and U of M prove to be true, I hope Dick Rod is humiliated and unceremoniously fired. Cheating should not be tolerated. Cheating that deprives student athletes of the opportunity to actually get the world-class education they have been promised should be punished.

Top 10 College Football Coaches

OC Domer — Fri, 08 May 2009 15:00:45 -0400

After doing a little research, here is what I have come up with as the Top 10 College Football Coaches:

Pete Carrol (USC)
Mark Richt (UGA)
Rich Rodriguez (UM)
Lane Kiffin (U. Tenn)
Steve Sarkisian (U. Wash)
Charlie Weis (ND)
Les Miles (LSU)
Bill Stewart (WVU)
Nick Saban ('Bama)
Urban Meyer (UF)

I have to admit, there a few surprises on this list, but you can't argue with the data. Maybe I need to be a little clearer.

I saw this article at fanblogs.com today about college football coaches on Twitter. They break it down by conference, but don't give us the really important stat: How many Twitter followers does each coach have? So I went and looked at each coaches' Twitter page and the list above is the Top 10 coaches by number of followers.

Is there any meaning to be derived from this ranking? Maybe a little. I think the list reflects at least three factors: (1) Personal popularity quotient of the individual coach (See "Pete Carroll"); (2) Degree to which the coach and his program embrace new technology for reaching out to fans (and recruits)(See UW's Steve Sarkisian) and (3) Intensity of the fan bases following each program (See all those SEC schools on the list).

To complete the exercise, here's the list again with hyperlinks to each coach's Twitter page and the number of followers for each coach:

Pete Carrol (USC)(17,393)
Mark Richt (UGA)(3,959)
Rich Rodriguez (UM)(3,953)
Lane Kiffin (U. Tenn)(3,651)
Steve Sarkisian (U. Wash)(3,301)
Charlie Weis (ND)(3,190)
Les Miles (LSU)(2,773)
Bill Stewart (WVU)(2,009)
Alabama ('Bama)(1,896)
Urban Meyer (UF)(1,729)

(Note 1: The Alabama Twitter feed isn't Nick Saban's. It's a collective feed for the staff as a group. If it was just a Nick Saban feed I would expect his ranking to go up).

(Note 2: If you actually have a full and rewarding life, don't start following football coaches, or especially football bloggers, on Twitter. Nothing good can come from it.)

Through Six: Notre Dame Midseason Progress Check

OC Domer — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 21:21:17 -0400

So where the heck are we? After six games last season, the Irish were sitting at a nightmarish 1-5, having slipped into the win column by beating a UCLA Bruin team that was down to their third-string QB in a game where Notre Dame was outgained 282 yards to 140. But we weren't really worried about style points at that juncture.

In 2008, after six games the Fighting Irish sit at a much-improved 4-2, but with the bitter aftertaste of a blown opportunity in Chapel Hill stinging on their tongues.

The Irish faithful are generally ecstatic over the dramatic improvement they have seen from this football team, most particularly in the passing game as the result of a maturing QB, an influx of talented young receivers, and quantum leaps in the pass blocking by the offensive line.

But I wanted to try to get a more concrete or objective look at how much this team has improved in the past year, and the midway point of the season seemed like a logical time to do it.

What I have done is compiled some statistics comparing the performance of the 2008 Fighting Irish through six games with the performance of the 2007 Fighting Irish through the first six games of last season. It's a little arbitrary.

Why not compare to the full season stats from 2007? Or just the stats from the common opponents from each season?

I guess I like the symmetry of looking at the stats from the midpoint of each season, which allows us to look at the progress over the course of a full year, rather than the progress over just a half-season, which we would have if we compared end-of-year 2007 stats against mid-year 2008 stats.

Of course, there are three types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. So take the following with a grain of salt, and know that I know they can be interpreted a lot of ways. Nonetheless, I still found it a very useful and somewhat surprising exercise.

Set out below are two charts. The first compares some key stats for the Notre Dame offense through six games in 2007 and through six games in 2008. Blue numbers in the differentials columns represent a positive trend from 2007 to 2008. Red numbers indicate a negative trend.

The second chart does the same thing looking at the performance of the Notre Dame defense. Blue is a good trend for the Irish, and red numbers are a negative trend.

To see the charts and read the analysis, click here.

Notre Dame's Young Playmakers Earning the Irish Some Respect

OC Domer — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 14:14:32 -0400

Before we move on to Stanford, I wanted to lay out very quickly my impressions following Saturday's encouraging win over Purdue.

I haven't gone back to dig out the stats to prove this point (I really need an intern here at OC Domer), but the game seemed to me to be the most balanced and complete overall game played by the Irish since playing Army on Nov. 18, 2006. You may need to go back further than that if you factor in the overall quality of the opponent, since Purdue in 2008 is better than Army of 2006.

The Irish had a terrific run/pass mix (40 rush, 39 pass) and were impressively effective in both modes (5.0 yards per rush, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 13.8 yards per pass completion). Notre Dame did not turn the ball over via fumble or interception, only allowed one quarterback sack, and went 3-of-4 in the red zone.

The Irish outplayed Purdue in both the punting game (net yards per punt: ND 42, PU 39.2) and the kicking game (net yards per kickoff: ND 51, PU 38.8) and won the field-position battle with an average starting field position (ASFP) of the 29-yard line compared to Purdue's ASFP of the 21-yard line.

The defense did give up some yards and a few points, but held Purdue's pass-happy attack to fewer total yards than the Irish (462 vs. 476) and scored a defensive touchdown on a Robert Blanton 47-yard interception return for a TD.

All in all, it was a very good day to be Irish.

There were four themes that popped into my head as I thought about the Purdue game: Playmakers, Youth, Respect, and Maturity. I'll hit briefly on each one.

To read the rest of this article, follow this link to the OC Domer blog!

Notre Dame Prepares To Pummel Purdue

OC Domer — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 18:14:13 -0400

Purdue. Harumph. I have to admit, as a die-hard Notre Dame fanatic I have trouble mustering a lot of emotion for the Purdue Boilermakers.

Traditionally being Notre Dame's third Big Televen opponent each season, they tend to get short shrift, passion wise. Michigan is first, and the passion, the intensity, the gravitas of those games is palpable. Michigan State is second, and the disdain and disrespect and active dislike is manifest. Purdue is third. Yawn.

Despite the historic nature of the series between these two teams, nobody (at least nobody on the Notre Dame side) cares that much about it. As an "in state rivalry" it's pretty tame.

The series has been lopsided (Notre Dame is 51-26-2 in the previous 79 games against PU), and the game rarely matches two highly ranked opponents. It's almost always the scrappy underdog Purdue Pete trying to derail the lofty ambitions of the favored Fighting Irish.

Coupled with Big Televen fatigue, this game often feels like playing basketball in the driveway against your younger brother. You play to win, and if you're paying attention and focus a little bit you almost always do win. But every once in a while you get lazy and he beats you, which means a lot more to him than it does to you. Good for you little fella—nice game.

To read the rest of this story visit the OC Domer blog!

OSU Stuns Trojans! No, Not That OSU

OC Domer — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 07:26:34 -0400

Well, once again a Pete Carroll Trojan team billed as the "Best Ever in the History of Football (Pro or College!)" loses to an unranked Pac-10 foe, probably because they started to believe the hype written about them in the Los Angeles Times and the Daily Trojan.

Notre Dame fans are, of course, devastated by the USC loss. Faced with a schedule that is much weaker than that of previous seasons, the Irish were counting on the significant boost in "strength of schedule" rating that a November win over an undefeated USC would have provided.

Crunching the numbers, the staff here at OC Domer have concluded that the USC loss to Oregon State probably puts Notre Dame's chances of playing in the National Championship game mathematically out of reach.

As for the Trojans, they fell prey to the same malady that besets many great, or nearly great, teams.

Coming out of the gate 2-0, winning a huge game on the national stage in week 2, teams are vulnerable to both complacency (overconfidence) and the natural letdown that follows an emotional high.

Being the best coach in the history of college football (ever!), you would have expected USC Coach Pete Carroll to see this coming, especially after watching the same phenomenon topple the Irish against Michigan State last Saturday.

But it seems that Pete and the Trojans are as human as Charlie Weis and the Irish, so both teams after three games sit at 2-1.

A couple of additional thoughts:

1. Mark Sanchez for Heisman! Not. Sanchez plays well within the USC system, just like Matt Leinart and J.D. Booty did.

But that system only requires the QB to take the snap, drop back in the pocket, eat a brown-bag lunch, read the sports section of the L.A. Times, and then heave the ball down the field to receivers running wide-freaking-open in the secondary.

But the system breaks down when the quarterback actually comes under a little pressure, or when an opponent actually covers the USC receivers as they run their routes.

We saw with Leinart, Booty, and now Sanchez that they are still good QBs, but they are very human when they have to deal with tight coverage and pressure like other quarterbacks who have mere mortals as teammates.

2. After USC annihilated that other OSU, Buckeye fans were left muttering about how the game would have been different if Beanie Wells had played.

They were generally shouted down by experts (i.e., the idiots on ESPN) who assured us that Beanie is good, but that the game wouldn't have been much different with him in it.

Watching freshman Beaver running back Jacquizz Rodgers gash and befuddle the USC defense to the tune of 186 yards and two touchdowns, I now wonder if Beanie might have made a bigger difference in the most recent Game of the Century.

Can The Irish Close Last Year's 17-Point Gap Versus Michigan State?

OC Domer — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 14:14:58 -0400

Oh man, I just had the strangest dream! I dreamed the Irish played Michigan, and used six UM turnovers to score 35 points and run the Wolverines out of Notre Dame stadium. Best. Dream. Ever!

What?! That really happened? Six days ago? And the Irish play Michigan State tomorrow? Boy, I sure hope the team has been more focused on the Spartans this week than I have, because I've just been wandering around with a stupid grin on my face since Saturday.

Riding a four-game winning streak, Notre Dame heads to butt-ugly Spartan Stadium to take on the 2-1 Spartans. Sparty dispatched Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic without much difficulty, and looked pretty good in their loss to the Cal Bears.

As most pre-season prognosticators anticipated, MSU figures to be the sternest early test for Notre Dame. Unlike the Wolverines, Michigan State is a veteran team with an excellent coach, a very good handle on their system, and a chip on their shoulder (that chip must get heavy after carrying it around for about 42 years).

The Spartans cannot be relied upon to give this game to the Irish. In order to come back to South Bend with a "W", Notre Dame is going to have to play hard and play well for 60 minutes and take the game away from MSU.

Can they do it? Yes they can. To read why follow this link to the OC Domer Blog!

OC Domer 2008 Notre Dame Football Preseason Spectacular

OC Domer — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 20:25:02 -0400

The time for annual “preseason” blog posts has just about run out, so I present the “OC Domer 2008 Notre Dame Football Preseason Spectacular.”

Of course, “spectacular” is a very subjective term. Very, very subjective. The plan is to bring you three preseason posts in one, because I’ve just run out of time to do each of them separately. The three posts are:

1. A quick review of my earlier post on the Top 10 Irish Lessons Learned from the 2007 football season to see if there is any evidence that Coach Weis and the 2008 Fighting Irish squad have taken those lessons to heart heading into this season.

2. A quick rundown of my general overall expectations for the Irish in 2008.

3. A quick look at each Notre Dame opponent, and how I think the Irish will fare against them this season.

Do I really think Notre Dame will finish the 2008 season 11-1? No. While I sincerely believe the Irish could, or even should, win each of their first 11 games, I also expect that a team as young as the Irish will have some untimely penalties and turnovers, or just come out flat, and let a couple of games get away from them.

Counting the likely loss to USC, I expect nine wins, give or take one. Of course, a lot has to go right for nine wins to happen. But after last year I figure the Irish are due a little luck.

Read the whole spectacular article at the OC Domer blog!

Forbes.com is Just Making Crap Up (More Cheap Shots and Lies about Charlie Weis)

OC Domer — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 07:11:40 -0400

So I fire up my e-mail this morning, and polluting my in-box is an "important message" from one of my USC buddies. The only thing in the e-mail is this link to a Forbes.com article naming the "The Best (And Worst) College Football Coaches For the Buck."

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that USC's Pete Carroll is listed as one of the "underpaid" coaches, and Notre Dame's Charlie Weis is listed as one of the "overpaid" coaches.

Of course, Forbes based its "determination" on Coach Weis' 10-year contract extension, "reportedly worth between $30 and $40 million over the length of the deal."

Here was my e-mail response to my buddy:

Steve,

Forbes has been making fools of themselves lately, publishing a bunch of embarrassing sports-related articles. The one that got the biggest splash was their proclamation that Nick Saban is the "most powerful coach in sports."

Not Pete Carroll. Or Charlie Weis. Or Joe Pa. Or Coach K or Phil Jackson or Joe Torre. Nick "Total Failure in Miami who is a Known Liar" Saban!

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0901/092.html

Thus, I take what Forbes has to say about college football not very seriously. The article you send is (1) yet another in a long line of cheap shots at CW, and (2) factually inaccurate.

People have been wildly overestimating CW's salary ever since he signed his "Monster" contract extension. University tax records for 2007 showed that CW was paid just $598,000 in salary to coach the Irish football team.

Incidentally, the University actually paid Ty Willingham $650,000 over the same period to NOT coach the Irish football team.

http://www.journalgazette.net/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080521/BLOGS02/126895704

Yes, last year was tough. But at $500K, Coach W is not overpaid.

It pains me a little to link to Mike Rothstein's work at the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, because he's an idiot sometimes, and I've called him out for it at OC Domer.

But his reporting on the Weis salary issue is right on the money and needs to get more play in order to debunk the widespread misinformation that is out there about Coach Weis.

I sure hope nobody is actually taking financial advice from those guys at Forbes.

[NOTE TO READERS: I'm doing the best I can with the formatting of this article. Bleacher Report is automatically inserting crap into the middle of the post that is screwing it up.]

Notre Dame Football: Schedule Points to Improved Irish In 2008 (Part 2)

OC Domer — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 09:15:26 -0400

The first post in this series examined the 2008 Notre Dame football schedule with a focus on new opponents for this season, and how they compared to the 2007 opponents that they replace.

To recap, the money paragraph in Part 1 was:

"Crunching some numbers, you see right away that Notre Dame is losing from its schedule five teams with an average final 2007 Sagarin rating of 53, and is picking up for 2008 five teams with an average 2007 Sagarin rating of 76.8 (let's call it 77). Thus, on average, the new opponents for 2008 are ranked 24 spots lower than the 2007 teams they replace."

Today's post takes a very rough look at the remaining teams on the Irish schedule: those teams that Notre Dame played in 2007 that they will also play in 2008. The goal is to get some idea about the relative strength of these "continuity" games in 2008 versus in 2007.

The basic method of comparison will be final 2007 rankings versus preseason 2008 rankings, although I may throw in some comments on an opponent's preseason 2007 rank or even rankings at the time they played the Irish when it seems especially pertinent.

The giant caveat, of course, is that comparing preseason predictions to end-of-year polling is a bit of an apples-to-oranges situation.

Lesser caveats (I wish I could use footnotes for all the caveats!) include the facts that (a) not all the pre-season predictions are in yet; (b) those predictions that are available don't necessarily agree with one another; and (c) postseason polls don't always agree with each other (for example, polls and computer rankings aren't always in sync, and even the various computer rankings can be wildly divergent).

I will be relying primarily on Athlon Sports for my 2008 preseason rankings. I like Athlon because they have a good reputation as being among the most accurate of the preseason magazines, and because they do us all the favor of ranking all the teams from 1 through 119. (Apologies to Michigan and Ohio State fans because Athlon doesn't include the Division I-AA teams in the national rankings.)

Services which offer only a "Top 25" ranking are not only lazy, but also not very helpful in looking at strength of schedule.

Also, my local Barnes & Noble had the Athlon National Edition on sale when I went shopping yesterday. I also picked up a copy of the 2008 College Preview magazine from ProFootballWeekly.com and CollegeFootballNews.com. I'll note the CFN rankings when they vary significantly from the Athlon predictions.

For the 2007 final rankings, my primary resource is Jeff Sagarin's final 2007 computer rankings, using his "predictor" column, which accounts for margin of victory. I've relied on Sagarin for years, and I think his is the best computer model available.

These rankings also have have the benefit of ranking all the teams, not just the Top 25 or so that we get from the AP or BCS polls. (Note to Michigan and Ohio State fans: Sagarin's rankings do include Div. I-AA teams, so you can track the strength of all your opponents.)

That's enough of the introduction already! How does the schedule look?

Michigan

The Wolverines are a bit of a mystery coming out of the blocks this season. They have lost nearly every skill position player of note on offense (including their top two quarterbacks), they lost their head coach, and the new coach had a rough go of it in recruiting this season and is installing an entirely new offensive system.

Rakes of Mallow has a very nice post on the parallels between the 2008 Wolverines and the 2007 Irish in this regard.

Added to all the turmoil is that 2007 Michigan, even WITH all their vaunted senior leadership (Hart, Henne, etc.), was a team that started the year 0-2 with an embarrassing loss to Div. I-AA Appalachian State (34-32) and a humbling beatdown by the Oregon Ducks (39-7), both before whipping the Irish 38-0 to start an eight-game winning streak and eventually defeating a strong Florida team in the Capital One Bowl, 41-35.

One has to figure that Michigan will start very slowly this season. But Notre Dame doesn't catch them until UM's third game of the year (which is exactly when the Wolverines got themselves straightened out last season).

As far as the numbers go, Michigan finished 2007 at No. 18 in the AP Poll and No. 24 in Sagarin's rankings. Athlon predicts them at No. 28 for 2008. Michigan has a lot of talent on the roster, and they may be at No. 28 by the end of the season, but they probably won't be even that good on September 13.

In any case, a 28th-ranked Wolverine squad has to be considered a "down" year and a nice break for Notre Dame. By contrast, UM was ranked No. 5 in both the AP and USA Today preseason polls last year.

Michigan State

Because of the general disdain that the entire staff here at OC Domer feels for the Spartans, I won't spend much time on them.

In 2007, MSU finished up at No. 39 in the Sagarin rankings, while Athlon has them at No. 49 in their preseason list. (Note that the Sporting News does have Sparty at No. 27, and CFN has them at No. 41.)

Expect Sparty to play over their heads as usual against the Irish, but 2008 doesn't look like an "up" year for MSU. Another break for ND.

Purdue

Despite flirting with greatness last season by starting the year 5-0 (capped by a win over ND, 33-19), Purdue struggled down the stretch and finished 8-5 and No. 54 in the Sagarin rankings. With experienced QB Curtis Painter returning, Athlon has them picking up right where they left off, at preseason No. 54.

Basically, Purdue looks to be Purdue again this year and will not cause the Irish any more trouble than usual. Given that Notre Dame actually outplayed the Boilermakers in the second half last year and had a serious chance to win that game despite some sloppy play, you have to like the Irish chances this year against PU.

Stanford

In what has to rank as one of the ugliest college football games ever played, Notre Dame beat Stanford 21-14 to close out their historically bad 2007 season. Stanford finished 2007 at No. 69 in Sagarin and opens 2008 at No. 74 in Athlon.

The bottom line is Stanford doesn't figure to be much better in '08, and the Irish do figure to be better. Advantage Notre Dame.

Boston College

I have a theory about sports. I call it the Cinderella theory. The OC Domer Cinderella Theory holds that teams can't have two "Cinderella" seasons in a row.

The clock has struck 12 on the Cinderella story of 2007. The Eagles had a nice run last year, starting 8-0, finishing 11-3, and coming close to both an appearance in the BCS Championship and a Heisman trophy. But the star QB (and almost everyone else on offense) is gone.

BC finished 2007 at No. 10 in the AP Poll and No. 30 in Sagarin. Athlon puts them at No. 44 for 2008. Clearly a step back for BC in '08, and a break for Notre Dame.

Navy

The Midshipmen made some history last year by defeating Notre Dame for the first time in my life. So what are they going to play for next year? Navy finished 2007 at No. 77 in Sagarin and open 2008 at No. 72 in Athlon. Notre Dame should avenge last year's loss and start another streak against the Middies this year.

Southern Cal

Notre Dame doesn't catch any breaks in this one. The Trojans have owned the Irish the past two seasons, and this year we play at their house, following a BYE for USC.

USC finished 2007 at No. 3 in the AP and No. 4 in Sagarin. They open 2008 at No. 4 in Athlon's rankings.

The biggest issue for USC is at QB, where new starter Mark Sanchez is unproven. But even if he stinks it up early in the year, the Trojans will have plenty of time to switch to former Arkansas QB Mitch Mustain and get him rolling before the matchup with the Irish in late November.

USC will be very good. The question is whether the Irish will have grown up enough by then to make a game of it.

Conclusion

Notre Dame's schedule looks very favorable for 2008. The new teams on the schedule for '08 are significantly weaker as a group than the teams they replace from the '07 schedule. Opponents that appear on both the '07 and '08 schedules as a group are expected to take a step back this year.

With the exception of USC, the teams that can usually be counted on to present the biggest challenges for Notre Dame (Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Boston College) all are widely expected to have "down" years in 2008.

As a young Irish team looks to take the step up to respectability in 2008, having a schedule that is much more manageable than last year's gives me some real hope.

Notre Dame Football: Schedule Points to Improved Irish in 2008 (Part 1)

OC Domer — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 12:56:16 -0400

I know that just a few days ago I was whining about how boring the summer is for college football bloggers ("summer" being defined as the period between the end of spring football and the beginning of fall practice). That's still true.

But this being a three-day holiday weekend dedicated to honoring those brave souls who choose to forge their own destinies without the safety net of an empire or a conference (Happy Independents' Day!), I had a little time on my hands to look forward to the 2008 college football season, particularly the prospects for the 2008 Fighting Irish. I decided to start with the 2008 schedule.

In my view, the schedule in 2008 should be a significant source of optimism and hope for Irish fans this year. There's a lot to write about, so this short post will be just the first of at least two preseason looks at the schedule with the OC Domer wide-angle lens.

What I mean is that these posts will be some rough-cut, big picture thoughts about our 2008 opponents, without getting into a lot of detail about matchups or in-depth opponent previews. Those will come as we get closer to kick-off. The most basic information provided by the schedule is (a) who we play, and (b) when we play them.

Today's post looks at who we play.

The 2008 schedule includes 12 opponents. Seven teams are squads the Irish played last year, and five teams were not on the 2007 schedule.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing for the Irish? I think it is a very, very good thing.

A quick comparison of the five 2007 opponents we dropped versus the five new opponents in 2008 reveals that the schedule changes are very favorable to Irish fortunes.

For the purposes of this quick-and-dirty review, I'm basing all comparisons on the final Jeff Sagarin rankings for the 2007 college football season, and I'm using Sagarin's "predictor" ranking (last column on his charts) because they factor in margin of victory and are therefore more accurate (if less politically correct).

The teams we played in 2007 but won't play in 2008 are Georgia Tech (L 33-3), Penn State (L 31-10), UCLA (W 20-6), Air Force (L 41-24), and Duke (W 28-7). The teams we pick up 2008 are San Diego State, North Carolina, Washington, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse.

If each of these groups of five teams are listed from best to worst using the latest Sagarin ratings, and the two lists are compared side-by-side, you get this:

1. Drop: Penn State (25), Gain: Washington (44)

2. Drop: UCLA (27), Gain: Pittsburgh (61)

3. Drop: USAFA (51), Gain: North Carolina (65)

4. Drop: G-Tech (57), Gain: SDSU (89)

5. Drop: Duke (105), Gain: Syracuse (125)

Crunching some numbers, you see right away that Notre Dame is losing from its schedule five teams with an average final 2007 Sagarin rating of 53, while picking up for 2008 five teams with an average 2007 Sagarin rating of 76.8 (let's call it 77).

Thus, on average, the new opponents for 2008 are ranked 24 spots lower than the 2007 teams they replace.

Now I will admit there is a part of me, as a very proud Irish fan, that is mildly ashamed to be analyzing how much easier our 2008 schedule is than our 2007 schedule. Tradition dictates that Notre Dame should be playing one of the toughest schedules in the country every year, taking on all comers.

The fact that I even researched how Duke stacks up against Syracuse as an opponent pains me a bit. But Notre Dame lost nine games last year, and those nine losses were not even close (except for Navy). The average margin of defeat in those nine games was 21 points.

Desperate times calling for desperate measures, I do care that Syracuse ended 2007 ranked No. 125 to Duke's No. 105.

But the bigger news is at the top of the lists. Instead of playing a 25th-ranked Penn State team that beat the Irish by 21 points last season, Notre Dame plays the Washington Huskies, ranked No. 44. That's a nice trade, and one that you have to feel gives the Irish a chance to pick up a win based on scheduling alone.

Likewise, the Irish drop the 27th-ranked UCLA Bruins and instead pick up the 61st-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers. Yes, Notre Dame beat the Bruins last year, but UCLA had some significant injury problems (especially at QB) that greatly aided the Irish cause. You have to believe that playing Pitt provides a better chance of victory than would playing UCLA again.

Losing USAFA and picking up UNC is basically a wash, except that Air Force's option offense has long given the Irish defense fits, and playing San Diego State is a huge "upgrade" over playing Georgia Tech.

Notre Dame notched two wins and three losses against the five listed 2007 opponents. It would be bitterly disappointing if an Irish squad that is even moderately better in 2008 doesn't go 5-0 against the five new teams on the schedule.

Hello, Missy Conboy: Notre Dame's Interim Athletic Director

OC Domer — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 08:18:50 -0400

Where the heck have I been? As I sat down to the computer with my usual Sunday breakfast - toasted sesame seed bagel (with butter) and a Diet Pepsi - I clicked on my gmail to see what was up and BLAM! Notre Dame Athletic Director Kevin White is leaving Notre Dame for Duke. No matter how you slice your bagel, that's big news.

Rabid Notre Dame football fans have been banging on Kevin White for years about the recent inability of the football team to win a National Championship (or even a bowl game). They have also been very critical of the perceived commercialization of the athletic department generally and the football program in particular. If you have ever spent time trolling Notre Dame message boards like UHND.com and NDNation.com you know that hardcore Irish fans have been living in perpetual fear that White would be installing a "jumbotron" in Notre Dame stadium that would detract from the traditional Notre Dame stadium experience by running a continuous stream of tacky commercials for South Bend used car lots and the like. I must admit the persistent jumbotron rumors actually had me a little worried. I am among those that like the old school football experience that is an afternoon in the "House that Rock Built." If we just do away with TV timeouts it would be perfect.

I've always been a little ambivalent about Kevin White as AD. The hiring of Bob Davie as football coach when Lou Holtz left was, in my mind, the moment when the wheels began falling off the Notre Dame football wagon. Holtz was a top-tier Division I football coach (and a National Championship winner), while Davie was a long-time assistant with no head coaching experience and, we would learn later, no real understanding of or love for the Notre Dame way. Davie was a horrible hire, and the football program has yet to recover. But Kevin White didn't hire Bob Davie, he inherited him. Much is made of the Davie contract extension that White engineered, but that was really just a re-working of Davie's contract so that he could be more easily fired later (which he was). The George O'Leary fiasco was White's aborted baby, although O'Leary must bear much of the blame for that. It's too bad that situation wasn't handled better, because O'Leary has shown since then that he's a heck of a football coach. The Willingham hire didn't turn out well, although at the time I applauded it along with most everyone else. White did oust Willingham after just three years, despite the PR storm that he knew would ensue, although he only did it after he was basically left no choice by influential alumni and a new Administration. And White hired Charlie Weis. Urban Meyer has done well at Florida, but count OC Domer as among those who are glad we didn't bring Urban Liar to Notre Dame.

So Kevin White's handling of the football program has been a bit ham-fisted at times. If that was all there was to the AD job, I'd have been calling for his head too. But football is just one program in the athletic department, and I think White has done a very good job with the balance of Notre Dame's athletic programs. Football aside, I don't think a serious argument can be made that the overall quality of the Irish sports program isn't significantly better today than it was when Kevin White took over. From program facilities, to athletic talent level, to coaching level, to coaches salaries, to overall competitiveness, Notre Dame athletics has seen significant improvement under White's direction. Kevin White was appointed AD at Notre Dame on March 13, 2000. Over the five years prior to White's hiring (94-95 through 99-00), Notre Dame had averaged a 20th place finish in the NACDA Directors' Cup standings, which award points throughout the year to each school based upon how how well their sports teams finished the season. They're probably going to have to re-name the award for Stanford University pretty soon, since Stanford has won the Cup for 13 straight years. During White's eight seasons at the helm (00-01 through 07-08; ND is 15th in the 2008 standings through May 29th), Notre Dame has averaged a 14th place finish. That's a significant improvement, and that's why I have been pretty much neutral on White's performance as AD.

But eight years is probably long enough to accomplish what you can accomplish anywhere as an Athletic Director, so it's probably as good a time as any for White to move on and for Notre Dame to bring in some new blood. I have no idea who might get the job on a permanent basis, but right now the job belongs to Missy Conboy, former Notre Dame basketball player (Class of 1982), who went on to get her law degree from the University of Kansas in 1985. She has worked for the Irish athletic department since 1987. There's a really nice profile of her on the Notre Dame website. It's clear that she's a Domer through-and-through. A true Domer with a law degree, hustle, drive, and plenty of experience. That sounds like a pretty good fit to me. While I would expect the Administration to bring in an experienced AD eventually, I wouldn't mind if Missy is allowed to carry the interim job for a while. I think she'll do a great job.