Bleacher Report - Articles by Daniel Chalmers

F1 German GP Preview: Can Red Bull Continue To Take the Fight to Brawn?

Daniel Chalmers — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:47:36 -0400

After a long three-week break, the F1 action returns this weekend to the Nurburgring for the German GP.

The Nurburgring isn’t the best circuit on the calendar, but it’s certainly far from being the worst. It suffers a bit because of the Nordschleife which is right next door. The Nordschleife is one of the greatest and most gruelling race tracks in the world. It is a massive 14 miles long. It still holds some races today, but is considered far too dangerous nowadays for Formula One cars.

The new modern Nurburgring circuit isn’t just a patch on the original. People would probably like the track more if there wasn’t such a great historic circuit over-shadowing it. Most of the drivers though do seem to like it.

“The Nurburgring is a great circuit. It’s got a variety of different corners—some quite tricky, technical sections that need a good flowing rhythm and some faster bends, where the car needs to be well set up,” said Heikki Kovalainen.

The range of corners at the Nurburgring makes setting up the cars quite tricky.

“It's a circuit with a bit of everything: fast corners, slow corners, chicanes and heavy braking areas. We therefore use a very typical set-up as we have to compromise through the speed range, as we do for most circuits,” explained Renault’s Pat Symonds.

German fans used to come to the German GP in their thousands to support Michael Schumacher. He may not be around anymore but currently a quarter of the F1 grid is German. Sebastien Vettel, Nico Rosberg (he’s half Finnish as well), Nick Heidfeld, Timo Glock and Adrian Sutil will all be hoping to thrill their home fans.

And this year for the first time since the great man himself retired, there is a genuine chance of a home winner.

Sebastien Vettel has been a sensation in F1 over the past 12 months, and his career is going from strength to strength, with three victories already to his name. His dominant win at Silverstone has made him a potential title challenger again. He is getting German fans excited about F1 again, and he is likely to attract the biggest crowd this weekend since Michael retired.

You can bet that Bernie Ecclestone can’t believe his luck that another potential German superstar has arrived on the scene so quickly. A win for Vettel would revitalise German interest.

Vettel will be under incredible pressure to win this weekend. To ensure he closes in on Button in the title race again, and to become a hero in Germany. Along with the inevitable suggestions that he is the next Schumacher too, he has a lot to live up to this weekend.

Can he handle these immense expectations? We have seen Vettel crack under the pressure a couple of times this season in Monaco and Turkey. The pressure on Button at his home grand prix was pretty tiny in comparison to what Sebastien faces this weekend.

However Vettel feels, being at home will help his victory chances.

“I'd say it's like a soccer match when you play on your home ground. You always give 100 percent, but in a home race you're even more motivated, because at home you feel comfortable,” explained Vettel.

His potential success this weekend will very much depend on how the Brawn GP/Red Bull battle shapes up.

This weekend, we will find out whether Red Bull’s obliteration of Brawn in Silverstone was just a flash in the pan. F1 fans are dying to know whether Brawn will dominate, or whether Red Bull can now push on for a serious assault on the title.

In Silverstone, the Brawn didn’t work well in high speed corners, and struggled in the cool conditions. This however suited the Red Bull’s characteristics perfectly.

The Nurburgring’s mix of different corners should give a better indication of where Brawn GP and Red Bull stand against each other. Brawn GP are sure the track will be much better suited to their car. Red Bull are confident that their upgrades are making a noticeable difference, and that they can be quick on any track from now on, not just tracks with quick segments. This weekend will tell us who is right, and how the rest of 2009 could turn out.

However looking at the forecast for this weekend it would be fair to say that it could be an advantage to Red Bull. The whole of the German GP weekend is set to be cool, with a threat of rain for the race. Red Bull has dominated both cool races so far this season, and with Brawn’s recent form in cooler temperatures, Red Bull will automatically become favourites.

How will the other German drivers fare this weekend?

Williams and Toyota are both in the chasing pack behind Red Bull and Brawn GP. Williams in particular have made a good improvement in the last few races, and have now started picking up consistent points. Nico Rosberg will be looking to achieve that again this weekend. Toyota had a rough spell after failing to win in Bahrain but have recovered after that disastrous race in Monaco.

Timo Glock however has only picked up one points finish in the last four races, so will be hoping that he can regain his form at his home circuit. Both are possible podium contenders should any of the Brawn or Red Bull drivers hit trouble.

Ferrari will also be hoping to be podium challengers, after Massa showed good pace on the way to a fourth place finish at Silverstone.

BMW Sauber’s season has been a disaster so far, considering they were planning on challenging for the title in 2009. They will be bringing some updates to their car this weekend. Nick Heidfeld will hope that this is enough to give him a chance of a points finish in his home race.

Force India has been making great strides recently, and is starting to become a solid midfield team. Fisichella finished a very respectable 10th at Silverstone. The team are getting closer to their first point of the season. Adrian Sutil will fancy his chances at snatching that point in front of his home fans.

Let’s not forget that it is also a home race for Mercedes.

Mclaren have struggled at the last two tracks because of their fast nature, which brings out the worse in this year’s challenger. They will be bringing a host of updates this weekend. The Nurburgring should suit them better too.

Renault are bringing modifications to their car as well. They really need them too, as their season appears to just be going backwards at the moment. A 2008 style turnaround looks very unlikely at present.

Toro Rosso has been struggling at the back for a few races now. They haven’t got the recent Red Bull updates on the car, and only have half the budget of their sister team. They may well be hoping that the Eifel Mountain’s micro climate waves its magic and brings some rain.

My prediction this weekend is for a Red Bull victory.

The predicted cool conditions are going to have a major impact on the result. Although I think it will be much closer than Silverstone was. There are more aspects of this track which will suit Brawn, unlike at Silverstone where nothing appeared to suit them.

There are three or four heavy braking zones, which will make the tyre warm-up issue less severe than at Silverstone, and there are more slower corners. I still fancy Red Bull to have the slight edge but Brawn will be far more competitive. I think Brawn would be ahead if the weather prediction was for boiling hot weather. Brawn will have to hope they get that in Hungary.

It should be a very fascinating and revealing weekend. A little bit of star dust (rain) would make it even better.

Will the German fans have something to cheer? And will the result spice up the championship fight?

My top-eight prediction...

1. Mark Webber

2. Jenson Button

3. Sebastien Vettel

4. Rubens Barrichello

5. Nico Rosberg

6. Nick Heidfeld

7. Jarno Trulli

8. Adrian Sutil

Visit www.YallaF1.com for more Daniel Chalmers content and other F1 features.

F1: Why Has the Pecking Order Changed So Dramatically in 2009?

Daniel Chalmers — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:52:40 -0400

Since Lotus won the world championship in 1978, Formula 1 has been dominated by four teams: McLaren, Williams, Ferrari or Benetton/Renault (Renault took over Benetton in 2002). These are the only teams to win the Constructor's Title.

However, the dominance from these four teams looks very likely to end in 2009. Brawn GP and Red Bull have rocked F1 and have become the top two teams, while everyone else playing catch up.

So what are the main factors behind the pecking order being turned on its head?

The main reason is undoubtedly 2009’s regulation changes which have been the biggest set of technical changes during the last 20 years.

The aerodynamics has changed drastically, slick tires have been re-introduced, KERs has been introduced and in—season testing banned, among other changes.

Basically these changes meant that Formula 1 pressed the reset button, and all the teams have to start from scratch on the same level.

Adapting to the new rules has been a massive learning curve, and a huge undertaking for all the teams. With such a big change, there were many different routes and directions teams could take with their 2009 challenger.

And whenever the rules are altered, there are always grey areas that clever engineers try to exploit. We have seen this in the past with the double diffuser saga.

“With such a big regulation change, it is quite interesting the different approaches that the teams have taken.” Red Bull boss Christian Horner explained before the season started.

He also spoke about his team’s different approach.

“His (Newey's) interpretation of the regulations has been slightly different to the other teams. The car looks fantastic, but the bottom line is how it runs on the track. We've got a good basis”

Many teams early on saw the changes as an important opportunity. As a result, a number of teams in 2008 opted to shift more of their focus onto the 2009 car.

For example, Honda (now Brawn GP) decided to focus solely on 2009 very early in 2008. As soon as Ross Brawn joined Honda in November 2007 he recognized 2009 as a massive opportunity. He knew the 2008 car would never be competitive.

“What is very important is 2009, because in 2009 there are new regulations," Ross Brawn said. "And that gives Honda a very strong opportunity to start with a blank sheet of paper. The difficulty during each season is that if you have a bad year then you have to do twice as much to catch up, because all the other teams are moving away from you. But in 2009 everyone is starting with new regulations.”

McLaren and Ferrari didn’t have the luxury of shifting most of their focus on 2009 because they spent their time involved in a tight championship battle down to the wire.

“We were fighting with McLaren until the end [in 2008] and we were fully concentrated on the fact that we wanted to win the title,” admits Ferrari boss Stefano Domenicali, talking to the BBC.

Domenicali added, “For me it is very clear that the teams that had the most time to develop the project have an advantage.”

Another aspect that has contributed towards the shape of the grid is the introduction of KERs. Teams who invested a lot of time and money on adapting the car to the system, making it reliable and gaining performance from it have lost out.

There has been more time to be won by ignoring KERs, concentrating on the aero and adapting to slicks.

The fact that BMW Sauber has ditched KERs for good is quite telling of the failure that KERs has been. BMW Sauber was the team that was most keen on its introduction to Formula 1.

“We have taken a decision just a few days ago to no more run KERS this year because we see a more promising alley in developing the aero," explained Mario Theissen.

Ferrari says the performance advantage of their KERs is only about 0.2 seconds a lap. For a system that is rumored to have cost 40 to 50 million pounds to develop (plus more costs to run), with the amount of time and work required to develop it 0.2 seconds is a poor return.

It has to be wondered how different the outcome would have been had Ferrari, McLaren, Renault, and BMW opted against KERs. What would the difference have been if all that time and money was invested on the new aero rules?

Chances are they could have been much closer to Red Bull and Brawn than they are now.

“I know that if you put that amount of money into the development of the car, then you would have been fast like Red Bull today!" Domenicali exclaimed at Silverstone. "It was millions of Euros."

KERs has turned out to be a bit of a white elephant.

A major problem for the teams who have dropped down the order this season has been the ban on in-season testing in 2009. The big teams may have state of the art wind tunnels and very accurate simulators, but there is nothing quite like testing new parts on the track.

The teams are now having to wait till Friday practice to see if their new developments are giving them any benefits.

Ferrari used to test extensively thanks to having their own private test track at their factory. Rubens Barrichello was recently quoted as saying that he used to be driving around the track at 9:30pm as it was getting dark. Ferrari can’t do that anymore.

The testing ban has prevented the likes of Ferrari and McLaren from catching up. The pecking order has stayed fairly stable as a result.

Finally let’s not forget the talent factor, which is crucial with such sweeping technical changes.

Considered by many as the two most talented engineers in F1, Ross Brawn and Adrian Newey have played a critical role in their team’s glory so far this season. They are both F1 legends!

Brawn played a major role in Ferrari’s dominant era of the 2000s and Benetton’s success in the mid—90s.

Adrian Newey dominated the 90s with Williams, and then with McLaren at the end of the decade.

Now, in 2009’s new look Formula 1 it is these two men that have come into their own and are competing against each other for the world title yet again!

In 2009, talent, knowledge, and experience has been far more important than having access to a large budget.

Brawn and Newey moved to teams that were a long way from being race winners, but they have used their magic touch and proven the brilliant talents they are, beating the teams that they previously won multiple championships with.

They saw how huge of an opportunity 2009 was and chose to make full use of it. When the Brawn and Red Bull cars were first launched, they looked the most impressive of the new look cars, and that has been reflected on the track. The influence of Brawn and Newey has been very clear to see.

On his BBC blog Webber had nothing but praise for Newey. “Adrian has an incredible knack of doing things that are before their time. That is what geniuses are like—they can see things that other people cannot see”

“He is very good at bringing the troops together and making sure we are working together as one,” said Button when talking to AUTOSPORT about Ross Brawn.

In conclusion, Brawn GP and Red Bull are at the front this year because they have simply adapted better than everyone else to the new regulations. It also helps that they have the best people in Ross Brawn and Adrian Newey. They have done a great job of understanding the new rules, and have chosen the right design paths.

Focusing efforts on the 2009 car early in 2008 was definitely a very shrewd move, particularly on Ross Brawn’s part. These rules have required an awful amount of time and hard work in order to get to grips with them.

The decision not to use KERs has also proved the correct one, as the teams that have used the system have got so little out of it.

When all of these factors are taken into consideration maybe it isn’t such a big surprise after all that Brawn and Red Bull are the pacesetters.

Visit www.YallaF1.com for more Daniel Chalmers content and other F1 features and news.

British GP Preview: What Will the Final Chapter at Silverstone Bring?

Daniel Chalmers — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 05:20:48 -0400

This weekend Formula One heads to Silverstone for the British GP, one of the event's most historic venues built on a former military airfield. Silverstone is famous for hosting the first ever F-One championship race back in 1950.

Unfortunately, this weekend the circuit will be hosting Formula One for the last time—for the time being anyway.

Next year the British GP moves to Donington Park. Even if the circuit isn’t ready in time, it’s more likely that the British GP will move to India, as opposed to returning to Silverstone. Bernie Ecclestone has had a much-publicised and ongoing feud with the circuit management for some time now.

Losing the race is a bit harsh on Silverstone. It may not boast the same scale of facilities as new venues such as Bahrain and China, but it’s nowhere near as bad as Interlagos in Brazil, for example.

Silverstone is a very fast and flowing circuit. The first sector, consisting of Copse, a blind sharp right bend taken almost flat-out, followed by quick direction changes in Maggots and Becketts, remains one of the most thrilling sequences of corners in motorsport. The drivers don’t even touch the brakes for nearly half a lap.

Lewis Hamilton is one of the many admirers of the Northamptonshire track.

“I love Silverstone—it’s an amazing place to drive," Hamilton said. "Copse, Becketts, and Bridge are all absolutely fantastic, flat-out corners that really show you the power and grip of a Formula One car. It’s a perfect place for the race, so let’s hope it’s not the last time we race at this track.”

Due to the fast nature of the track, and the aerodynamics on modern F-One cars, overtaking is quite difficult. If you can stick close through Becketts, then the end of the Hangar Straight still provides an opportunity. There is another opportunity at Vale.

British drivers have a rich history of success at their home race. The British GP has been won by a home hero 21 times (Stirling Moss and Tony Brooks won together in the 1957 race). Five of those victories were by the great Jim Clark. Moss, James Hunt, and Nigel Mansell are also amongst the names to have won at their home track.

Hamilton recently added himself to that illustrious list last season with a majestic wet weather drive when he won by over a minute.

The build-up to this year’s race shows you how much can change in just a year in Formula One. Last year, Hamilton was the main hope of a home winner in the British GP, whilst Jenson Button’s best hope was for a point or two. This season, it’s a role reversal.

So what are Button’s chances of becoming the 13th British driver to win the British GP—and putting one hand firmly on the world championship trophy?

Button is definitely the overwhelming favourite for victory after winning the Turkish GP far more comfortably than expected. The Brawn BGP001 worked extremely well last time out in Istanbul, so therefore it should be effective around Silverstone and its fast corners. The Brawn GP is the only car which has been consistently quick on all types of track configurations in 2009.

Ross Brawn has also confirmed that the team will be bringing more updates to the car. They have shown that they are more than a match for their nearest rivals in terms of development pace.

With the support of the passionate home fans, Button will be even more fired up, as he has always been very popular with the British fans, even through the toughest of times.

There is no doubt that Jenson really wants to win at home, as he did at Monaco and has been able to tick that off his wish list of achievements. Now he is at the next race, which he wants ticked off that list too.

Button’s main danger this weekend is that he pushes too hard for the win, rather than settling for good points if need be. Although a DNF wouldn’t be a huge disaster, it would put a noticeable dent in his established championship lead.

Silverstone is perhaps Rubens Barrichello’s best chance of challenging his teammate. Silverstone has always been traditionally one of Barrichello’s strongest circuits. Barrichello won brilliantly in 2003, fighting back with great overtaking moves after a safety car period lost him track position. He also out-qualified Michael Schumacher in 2000, 2004, and 2005.

This circuit suits Rubens' style of driving because it is less dependent on the brakes. If the Brazilian is to mount a championship fight back, then it will have to begin here. If Button can still beat him on one of his strongest tracks, then you sense that Rubens may not have any ammunition left, and his title aspirations will be finished.

Red Bull Racing were bitterly disappointed that they couldn’t match the Brawn Boys in Istanbul. The car should work very well in Silverstone, as it has more fast corners than Istanbul, which may see the Red Bull pair a bit closer to Brawn GP's outright pace.

“Our closest competitors are going to be good in the high-speed corners, so it will be an interesting weekend,” says Button, who is in the lead heading into the weekend.

However, if they are to have any hope of challenging Brawn, they will have to be aggressive and take risks, and not make any errors. At the moment, they look like the only team that can realistically prevent Brawn GP from winning races.

Mark Webber has been in good form of late, beating Sebastian Vettel in the last three races. At Silverstone last season, he planted the Red Bull on the front row of the grid. He will be one to watch this weekend.

Further back, there will be a tight battle for the rest of the points between Toyota, Williams, Ferrari, BMW Sauber, and Renault.

Toyota had a disaster in Monaco but fought back strongly in Istanbul. The car works much better at the tracks where aerodynamics play a larger part. Williams has started to pick up solid results lately and finally started to realise their potential. BMW Sauber have made a step forward thanks to the introduction of their new double diffuser. They will be fighting for solid points again this weekend.

Ferrari’s challenge in Istanbul was much tamer than what was expected. They were very close to the Brawns in Monaco, but that looks as if it might have been a one-off. In Istanbul, they were amongst the Toyotas and Williams, as opposed to the Red Bulls and the Brawns. At a similar circuit, the same can probably be expected this weekend.

Hamilton won’t be joining Button’s challenge for victory. McLaren Mercedes’ big step forward won’t be arriving till Germany. Silverstone looks like it will be another struggle on another circuit, which will expose the aerodynamic flaws of their car.

Force India will have an advantage for once this weekend, as their base is just over the road from the circuit, and the team has been improving, as Adrian Sutil managed to get into Q-Two in Istanbul. They comfortably beat the Toro Rossos in the race, who themselves will be hoping to fight back from a torrid weekend in Turkey.

What will the final chapter of Formula One at Silverstone bring? Can it have a dream ending with Button winning its swan song race, or will Barrichello or perhaps Red Bull Racing spoil the farewell party?

Is Vettel World Champion Material Or Is He Overhyped?

Daniel Chalmers — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 05:00:44 -0400

Young German Sebastian Vettel hasn’t been racing in F1 for two full seasons, but he has already made a massive impression on the scene. He has become extremely popular with the fans and media alike due to his endearing and bubbly personality, which stands him out from most other Formula 1 drivers.

“Dunno. Probably a nice girl...One with good character and intelligence. OK, with a nice arse as well!” said Vettel being his usual witty self, after being asked who he would like to share a lift with.

He has shown signs that he could be a future World Champion (maybe even this season if Jenson Button were to completely drop the ball). This boy is no ordinary 21-year-old.

Vettel excelled in the Formula BMW championship which he won in 2004, and then went on to win races in Formula Three in 2005. The year in which he drove an F-One car for the first time is when he tested for BMW Williams. Mario Theissen was impressed by his performance.

“Sebastian made a successful switch from around 220 bhp in Formula Three to almost four times that in a Formula One car. The whole team was pleased with him.”

2006 was when the F-One paddock really learnt of his talent behind the wheels of a Formula One car. Sebastian Vettel became BMW Sauber’s third driver. He became the youngest ever driver to take part in a Formula One weekend. He raised eyebrows when he topped his first session. To show that this wasn’t a one-time only situation, he followed it up by topping both Friday sessions at the next race weekend at Monza.

His F-One race debut came in 2007 when he replaced the injured Robert Kubica in the US GP. He qualified seventh and finished in eighth. This made him the youngest point’s scorer in the sport’s history. Later that season, he jumped ship to Toro Rosso to replace Scott Speed. Initially, he struggled to match teammate Tonio Liuzzi, but hit the headlines in the back-to-back Japan and Chinese weekends.

In Japan, he was running at the front in atrocious conditions when he hit Mark Webber behind the Safety Car. Vettel was destined for a podium finish if not more. He fought straight back from this disappointment to notch up fourth place in China, which was also affected by rain. These two races announced to the world that he was not just any other rookie, but rather that he had enormous potential.

2008 was Vettel’s first full season in Formula One which he embarked with Toro Rosso. His season started badly when he was involved in first lap collisions in each of the first four races. As the season progressed, and the Toro Rosso improved, Vettel’s season turned around. Becoming the youngest ever pole sitter and F-One winner in the Italian GP was the highlight of his coming of age year.

It rained all weekend long and Vettel dominated qualifying for the race. In the race, he drove away from Kovalainen and nobody could touch him. This was the performance of a driver well beyond his years.

“For sure the best day of my life," said Vettel after the race. "These pictures, these emotions—I will never forget."

“Sebastian proved today he can win races but he is going to win World Championships," claimed Gerhard Berger. "He is very good."

This was the weekend when the fans and media alike fell in love with the unassuming German kid, and his profile as a driver sky-rocketed. By the end of the season, he had scored 35 points and finished eighth in the Championship.

In 2008, it was confirmed that Vettel would replace the retiring David Coulthard in 2009 at Red Bull.

Until this point, Vettel had never been under huge pressure in F1. In a lower team, there isn’t as much pressure as there is in a top team.

If you are in the bottom half of the grid in a slower car, nobody cares. However, if you are at the front punching above your weight, you suddenly become a hero. It’s fair to say Vettel punched well above his weight in 2008, particularly in the last third of the season.

Vettel find himself under more pressure in 2009. Would he still be able to thrive when big results would always be expected? How would he fare against a much tougher teammate in Mark Webber?

So far, 2009 has been tougher for Sebastian, which has shown he still has quite the way to go. However, there are still those same signs, which show that he is a champion in the making.

He won the second race of his career in a soaking Chinese GP, in a very similar fashion to his victory at Monza. He dominated from the beginning, and never put a foot wrong in a drive, showing incredible maturity.

“For sure, in coming years, Seb is going to be one of the dominant drivers in F-One,” said Christian Horner, the team boss. "His qualifying record has been very strong and consistent. He has been on pole twice, and only qualified out of the top three once so far this season."

In the races, he hasn’t seen the results he should have. Bahrain and Spain were both races where he could have challenged for victory. On both of those occasions, he lost too much ground behind KER's cars. There wasn’t much he could do about that. He was more let down by poor team strategy.

“It was a shame that Felipe ran out of fuel, but obviously I was happier to pass him than I had been for the previous 63 laps stuck behind him,” said a frustrated Vettel after the Spanish GP.

In Monaco, he destroyed his tires very early on. After pushing too hard to try and recover lost ground, he went on to hit the barrier at St Devote.

Istanbul was another disappointing race. He knew he needed to create a gap to Jenson but made a mistake in turn nine on the first lap and Button got ahead and went off into the distance. His three stop strategy didn’t work and he ended up finishing behind Webber.

“It was my mistake," said Vettel. "It was extremely difficult there and I nearly did the same on the second lap.”

He is now 32 points behind Jenson Button in the title race and now has a very tall mountain to climb. It doesn’t help that Button has been perfect all season long, not putting a foot wrong.

Lewis Hamilton won the title in his second full season, but made many mistakes along the way. Had he been up against someone of Button’s current form, he may have ended up in a similar position.

It’s likely that there will be some who start criticizing Vettel after these recent errors, but it needs to be remembered that he is still only 21 years old. He has got at least another 10 to 15 years in F-One still. He has yet to reach his peak by some margin. He still has more learning and maturing to do. He will learn from these mistakes and become even stronger.

He has achieved an awful lot already in his short F-One career, starting further down the grid, as opposed to being put straight into a top car as Hamilton was.

It would be true to say that he has already achieved more than other champions at this time in their careers. Mika Hakkinen, for example, didn’t win his first race till his seventh season. Vettel has notched up two victories already.

Vettel is an incredible young driver with plenty of natural talent. If he can keep his feet on the ground while working hard on improving as a driver, then he has a great chance of winning titles. If he keeps that smile on his face and continues to make fans laugh, he will get plenty of support behind him.

A lot will also depend on whether he can stay in competitive cars. Making the right career moves will be critical for Vettel.

Why Jenson Button's Turkish Delight Was a Bitter Blow for His Rivals

Daniel Chalmers — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 11:51:59 -0400

The Turkish GP seemed to sum up 2009 so far. Jenson Button dominated and didn’t put a foot wrong. Red Bull missed their opportunity, and Rubens Barrichello had an unhappy race.

Button has now won six races, and has accumulated 61 points. Brawn has already reached 96 points. However, this recent win could well mean even more to Button and Brawn GP than the others\. It represents a huge killer blow, and disappointment to their nearest rivals, who thought they could win and spark a fight back.

The Turkish GP was marked as the crossroads for the season. If the likes of Red Bull wanted to challenge for the title, they simply had to end Brawn’s dominant spell this weekend on a circuit that perhaps suited the blue cars more than the virgin white ones.

A great challenge was expected from Red Bull whose car works very effectively in fast corners. Ferrari had been closing on Brawn in recent races, and with Felipe Massa’s great record at the track, a victory challenge was the least that was expected from them.

This was being billed as the race where Brawn’s winning run could be halted. Even Button conceded that he was going to face very stiff opposition. “I think that the Red Bulls should work quite well here. The car that they had in Barcelona, if they brought that here they would be competitive. We'll have to see if their diffuser makes a difference on this circuit,” surmised Button.

Button was expecting a big threat from Ferrari, saying, “The Ferraris will be quick here, too. I think they've made up ground at every race and they performed very well, especially in Monaco.” However Button dominated yet again with another flawless performance. Sebastien Vettel started on pole; however, he made an error on the first lap, letting Button into the lead.

The Brawn works best in the slower to medium corners, but not as immense in the super fast corners. This gave their rivals hope ahead of Istanbul as a track featuring fast corners. This hope proved false as Button gave a glowing assessment of his car’s performance, saying thst it was the best it had been so far in 2009.

“Thank you, you have built me an absolute monster of a car, thank you” was the message from an elated Jenson Button over the team radio as he crossed the line.

Brawn GP seemed to take another step forward this weekend, and showed that it was mighty on all track configurations. Their rivals were powerless to stop them despite their high expectations before the race Jenson Button now holds a massive 26 point lead over team mate Rubens Barrichello, and 32 points over Vettel.

Barrichello and Vettel face a “monster” task to make an impression on Button’s lead. After all, the Englishman could finish on the podium in every race from now on and still be crowned champion.

In the constructor’s championship Red Bull trail Brawn GP by 39.5 points. "It is going to be very difficult for us to make up the ground to Brawn” admitted Red Bull boss Christian Horner.

The bad news for Brawn GP’s nearest rivals is that Silverstone (up next) is similar to Istanbul with fast sections. The fact that the Brawn seemed to work so well in Istanbul, means that it will be very formidable around Silverstone. Hungary and the Nurburgring should suit the car better still.

Button will also have masses of support from his adoring home fans, which he has enjoyed even when he has had uncompetitive machinery. This year the atmosphere at Silverstone will be electric. If he wins there, then it has to be said that Vettel and Barrichello’s championship chances are as good as over.

When you watched their performances on Sunday, you sensed that they were so desperate to stop Jenson in his tracks; they tried too hard and failed. Vettel knew he had to push and create a gap. He went wide at turn turn, and when Jenson got past him, that was that.

Barrichello had a terrible start due to a problem with the clutch. He tried to battle through the field, but made a couple of desperate attempts on Heikki Kovalainen and Adrian Sutil.

The question now seems to be, "When Button will win the championship?" And can he become a record breaker in the process?

In 2004 Michael Schumacher won a record 13 times, and won seven of those races consecutively. He also scored a record 148 points. Ferrari also won 15 out of the 18 races, and scored 252 points.

What does Schumacher think of his potential record snatcher? “When Jenson arrived in F1 you could see straight away that he was highly talented. He was out-qualifying and sometimes outracing his teammate. If you see a driver (Ralf) who has some experience and a new kid comes in and straight away matches the pace, then you see that they are highly talented.”

Schumacher says the way Jenson is delivering this season shows that he is championship material. “When I saw that I could tell very clearly how good he was. He showed that when he has a package that is built around him with the ability he has then he can be absolutely top level.”

Button’s momentum is just getting bigger. Brawn GP has also proven that they have an impressive development rate, and remained ahead despite significant upgrades from their rivals.

Button’s points gap to Barrichello is now so large that, surely, Ross Brawn will now consider fully backing Button for the championship. If Button can win the next couple of races, there could come a point where some of their rivals decide to switch more of their focus to 2010. These factors should aid Button’s attempt to beat a couple of those records.

In this writer’s opinion, Button won’t quite exceed those records. He could get very close to the points record, though. Brawn GP isn’t as far ahead as Michael Schumacher’s 2002/2004 Ferraris were.

Red Bull should win races in the second half of the season. Brawn GP also aren’t as strong as Red Bull in the wet, and we have historically wet venues such as Belgium, Japan, and Brazil to come still.

Over ten wins is definitely possible. Jenson and Brawn GP certainly look to be heading towards one of the most successful seasons of recent times, unless we get a bizarre turn of events. Although this is unlikely, we all know in motorsport that anything is possible.

F1 Turkey 2009: Car Weights and Prediction

Daniel Chalmers — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:16:32 -0400

It was a fantastic qualifying session where the pole sitter changed 3 times. In the end it was a last gasp effort from Sebastien Vettel that clinched pole position.

The post quali car weights have been published.

1. Sebastian Vettel RBR Renault 649.5

2. Jenson Button Brawn Mercedes 655.5

3. Rubens Barrichello Brawn Mercedes 652.5

4. Mark Webber RBR Renault 656.0

5. Jarno Trulli Toyota 652.0

6. Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 658.0

7. Felipe Massa Ferrari 654.0

8. Fernando Alonso Renault 644.5

9. Nico Rosberg Williams Toyota 660.0

10. Robert Kubica BMW Sauber 664.0

11. Nick Heidfeld BMW Sauber 681.5*

12. Kazuki Nakajima Williams Toyota 680.4*

13. Timo Glock Toyota 689.0*

14. Heikki Kovalainen McLaren Mercedes 665.0*

15. Adrian Sutil Force India Mercedes 668.5*

16. Lewis Hamilton McLaren Mercedes 696.5*

17. Nelson Piquet Renault 689.6*

18. Sebastien Buemi STR Ferrari 686.5*

19. Giancarlo Fisichella Force India Mercedes 688.5*

20. Sebastien Bourdais STR Ferrari 701.0*

Sebastien Vettel will be pitting first on around lap 15/16. Rubens Barrichello is the lightest of the Brawn drivers and he will be in a lap later on lap 16/17.

Jenson Button is going 2 laps longer than Sebastien Vettel and will be in on lap 17/18. Mark Webber should also be pitting at around this time.

Furthur back Jarno Trulli will be paying his first visit to the pits around lap 16/17.

Ferrari isn’t heavier as might have been expected with their grid position. Felipe Massa will be on lap 16/17 and Raikkonen a couple of laps later on lap 18/19.

Sebastien Bourdais is the heaviest of all the runners with a weight of 701.0kg. This should take him to lap 35/36.

Summary of predicted pit stop patterns at the front

Vettel will pit first

Trulli, Barrichello, Massa - + 1 lap

Webber, Button - + 2 laps

Kimi Raikkonen + 3 laps

My predictions for the race tomorrow

The race looks like it will be a straight titanic duel between the Brawn GP and Red Bull drivers. Any of the top 4 drivers could potentially win the race. This is perhaps the first time we will see a straight fight between the two teams. In Bahrain and Spain it was actually quite close between them, but Vettel got stuck behind KERs cars.

There won’t be much difference between them. The Red Bull is mighty in the fast corners of which there are plenty in Istanbul. However the Brawn GP still looks after it’s tyres better. This is very important here particularly in turn 8, which puts plenty of load onto the tyres.

Overall over the long runs I would still back Brawn but not by much.

Brawn also has the tactical advantage with both drivers doing longer than Vettel. If Vettel is to win tomorrow he has to ensure he gets to turn 1 first, and push really hard to open up a gap.

If the race is tight as we expect it to be then factors like pit stop times and fitness will come into play. In the heat predicted, and the physical nature of the circuit the drivers will be pushed to the limit. By the end of the race the drivers will really be suffering, and that could affect laptimes. Button is one of the fittest drivers in the pit lane so that is likely to benefit him.

Could reliability also be an issue, particularly with the Brawns? In Bahrain the heat was a big headache, and if they are pushing hard in combat with the Red Bulls it could be an issue.

Also how will someone of Vettel’s inexperience cope in a close and intense battle for the lead? That will be a new experience for him. Both his race wins so far have been dominant wet weather performances.

Ferrari doesn’t look like they have the pace to challenge. Much was expected particularly from Massa. However they qualified 0.5 seconds off the pace with a similar race fuel to the Brawns and Red Bull. They are perhaps an outside bet for the podium but nothing more than that.

For the final points paying positions it will be a close battle between he likes of Glock, the BMW and William drivers, and maybe the Mclaren of Kovalainen too.

In conclusion it promises to be a very tight and fascinating race between the Brawns and Red Bulls. They will be in close company throughout. It will be small factors that decide the outcome. However tactically and race pace wise Brawn are ahead in my opinion, so I think they will end up edging the race, just as they over Ferrari in Monte-Carlo.

As for my race winner prediction I am going to stick my neck out and go for Rubens Barrichello. He starts on the clean side of the grid so I feel he could get Button into turn 1, and skip Vettel in during the pit stop phase.

Then he will hang onto victory. He is due a race win and I just have this gut feeling race day in Istanbul could be that day. His wise head and experience could be critical in this race, and he has been running well in practise.

My top 8 prediction

1. Rubens Barrichello

2. Jenson Button

3. Sebastien Vettel

4. Felipe Massa

5. Mark Webber

6. Kimi Raikkonen

7. Jarno Trulli

8. Heikki Kovalainen

F1: Why Button Deserves More Praise Than He Is Getting

Daniel Chalmers — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 06:31:26 -0400

So far 2009 has been one of Formula 1’s biggest ever fairytale stories for Jenson Button. In 2007 and 2008 he had terrible cars, which gave him absolutely no hope of battling at the front. Even the best drivers, including the likes of Fernando Alonso, wouldn’t have been able to extract much more from those two forgettable cars.

Over the winter Jenson Button had been none the wiser over whether he would be actually racing at all in 2009. He came so close to being placed on the Formula 1 scrapheap. Now six races into the 2009 season he has won 5 races and holds a 16 point lead over Rubens Barrichello in the drivers’ championship, and 28 points over Sebastien Vettel. Button has simply obliterated the opposition so far.

The Englishman showed signs throughout his F1 career that he was potentially a great driver. He has just never had the car he deserves until now. 2004 is the only season where he has consistently had a competitive car throughout. That season he finished on the podium 10 times. He finished best of the rest behind the Ferrari drivers. Their car was miles ahead of the opposition that year. Take Ferrari out of the equation and Button would have been world champion.

In the last third of the 2006 season, which included his first F1 win from 14th in the wet Hungarian GP, he scored more points than any other driver, including title contenders Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso.

He is acknowledged as one of the smoothest drivers in the field, Alain Prost like, which has been particularly useful this season with the return of slick tyres, which degrade very quickly, particularly the rears. His driving style is very easy on the tyres which has given him an advantage to many of the other drivers in 2009.

Button is one of the best wet weather drivers and has brilliant race craft. He is also a grafter, and this season he has been more dedicated than ever. He is also one of the fittest, if not the fittest driver on the grid. He recently participated in triathlons, and will contest the London triathlon in August.

Yet some sceptics remain and these will inevitably say that the only reason Button is winning races is because of the car that Ross Brawn has given him. Unfair we say.

Whilst it’s true that the BGP001 is a brilliant car, Button has extracted everything from it, and made the most of this near perfect scenario. Other drivers in F1 have failed to take their chance when they have had a quick car. Giancarlo Fisichella’s stint at Renault is a good recent example of this. He only won two races in the time that team mate Alonso won 14.

It’s also important to consider that apart from Melbourne, the Brawn GP has not actually been that far ahead. Since Australia the opposition have closed very quickly. At the start of the season the advantage Brawn GP had was around 0.6-0.8 seconds. That gap has been slashed to just a tenth or two. In qualifying especially they face very tough opposition.

In Melbourne Jenson just had to keep his head and not make any errors, and victory was his. It might have looked like an easy race, but the track was very slippery, and visibility was poor due to the twilight start time. The softest tyre compound in Australia was also a catastrophe. Whilst others struggled, Button dealt with the stint on these tyres with ease. He had better pace than the others, but it was a very mature drive for someone not use to driving at the front for ages.

His other race wins have all required Button magic to make them possible. They haven’t just been about keeping the car on the road. He has had to make things happen.

In Malaysia Button fell from 1st to 4th at the start, but recovered brilliantly. He was stuck behind the KERs car of Alonso. However he pulled off a brilliant opportunistic move on the corner before the long back straight, and held on as Alonso deployed his KERs to try and take the position back. He then reeled in and overtook Jarno Trulli.

Race leader Nico Rosberg then pitted, and Button did two incredible laps, and came out comfortably ahead of Rosberg. He then gained a full 8 seconds on him as the rain started to fall. As the rain got heavier he held on, as Glock put pressure on him. This was a masterful drive by Button in a car that had never been tested in the wet.

Bahrain was even more impressive. It was blistering hot in Bahrain and the Brawn GP car was struggling with overheating. Button could only qualify 4th, and he was surrounded by KERs cars. He would only be able to push in the race if he was in clean air. If he ended up having to follow someone he would have to hang back.

Button only lost out to Hamilton at the start, and managed to get ahead of Vettel. Button needed to clear Hamilton to have any chance of challenging for race victory. At the start of lap 2 Button took a brave lunge at Hamilton into Turn 1 and made it stick. He was now in clear air following the lighter Toyotas. He was now able to push and chase race victory.

Once the Toyotas came in he did some quick laps, and made the most of their wrong tyre choice for the middle stint, and cruised to victory. He maintained the gap and nursed his car to the finish. In Bahrain he pulled off what before the race looked like an unlikely result.

The key to his victories in Malaysia and Bahrain were pulling off a stunning moves on a KERs car. So far, drivers without the KERs system have found it next to impossible to pass cars that have the system on board. Button has broken this trend twice. Had he not gone for the move, he wouldn’t have won either of those races.

In Spain he struggled throughout the weekend, but got altogether when it mattered in the last moments of qualifying. Three stops was the ideal strategy, but due to traffic he switched to two stops. He managed to make it work by being brilliant on a heavy fuel load, and sublime on the stint with the harder tyres. He beat his disgruntled team mate by simply making more of his strategy than he did. Barrichello had no reason to moan.

In Monaco it was a last gasp qualifying lap again which put him on pole, after struggling with setup all weekend as he had been in Spain. The lap was crucial to his race as pole tends to be the favoured starting spot on the tight street circuit. Had either Ferrari or his team mate Barrichello qualified ahead of him winning the race wouldn’t have been possible. Overtaking on the streets of Monte-Carlo is as close to impossible as you can get.

It is indisputable that Button has simply been the best driver so far this season. He has shown glimpses throughout his career that he is a great driver, and now he is rubber stamping it. Ross Brawn recently compared Button to Michael Schumacher. On these performances so far it’s very hard to take issue with him.

Button has matched Schumacher who won 5 of his first 6 races in 2004, and the same with Nigel Mansell in 1992.

However in these two championships Schumacher and Mansell had a car with a much bigger advantage than Button’s Brawn. Mansell’s Williams was the most advanced F1 car ever at the time designed by Adrian Newey. At the start of the season it was nearly 2.0 seconds quicker than anything else (the current gap covering the entire 2009 grid is less than that!). Schumacher’s 2004 Ferrari was around a second quicker at the start of the season.

This makes Button’s great start even more outstanding and he deserves much more praise than he has received so far. We are witnessing a driver at his peak in a car that is up there with the great chassis of the modern Formula 1 era. History is being made every time they trun a wheel in anger,

Button’s career reminiscent to that of Mika Hakkinen’s. Both not getting the opportunity to seriously challenge for the title until later in their respective careers. When Hakkinen got the chance he took it with both hands, and was maybe unlucky not to have won a third title. Hakkinen is now remembered as one of the greats of Formula 1.

The same could and should very well apply to Jenson Button and really few on the grid deserve the glory more than him. We, who call ourselves fans and F1 followers, should also savour it now rather than in ten years time as people now do with Hakkinen.

Go to www.YallaF1.com for more Daniel Chalmers content and other F1 features

Turkey GP Preview: Can Massa Win for the Fourth Time in Istanbul?

Daniel Chalmers — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:55:23 -0400

This weekend, Formula One heads to Istanbul for the fifth Turkish GP, and Round Seven of the 2009 championship. Istanbul Park is yet another circuit designed by F1 designer Hermann Tilke. However this track is different from his others in that the drivers all seem to like it, and that it doesn’t have a gigantic pit straight.

Istanbul Park is acknowledged by drivers as the best out of the new modern tracks in Formula One. It runs in an anti-clockwise direction, and has a mix of fast and slow corners. There are also a lot of elevation changes throughout the lap which adds to the challenge and character of the circuit.

The best section by far, ask any of the current F1 boys, is turn eight, which is a long high speed triple apex corner. To add to the challenge it is blind and quite bumpy. This corner is up there with the finest in F1 including Eau Rouge at Spa and 130R at Suzuka. Drivers are subject to around 5g through here every lap.

Overtaking is difficult but not impossible. The best place is into turn 12 at the end of the long back straight. We have seen many out-braking moves there in the past. Turn One and turn nine also represent half chances.

The circuit is very demanding on the car and drivers. The anti-clockwise configuration makes life very hard for the driver’s neck muscles, as clockwise circuits dominate the calendar. Along with the high G forces in turn eight, and the heat expected at this time of the year, make this race one of the most physical on the calendar.

For the car the circuit is very punishing on the tyres. The tyres are worked extremely hard through the long turn eight. The heat and amount of time spent on full throttle makes life hard for the engines.

The brakes also take a battering due to several big braking zones in the lap. Setting up the car will be crucial to deal with the mix of corners. The drivers want a car that works well throughout the lap.

The big question this weekend again is can anybody stop Brawn GP and Jenson Button?

Englishman Jenson Button is on a role at the moment. He is driving brilliantly, extracting the maximum from his car and not putting a foot wrong.

He has made no major error to speak of so far this season Of course he does have the quickest and most robust car on the grid at the moment, but it is not fastest by an enormous margin. This makes his achievements so far quite remarkable. In F1, you have to seize the moment when it arrives and this is exactly what Button has done so far.

In Turkey, he perhaps faces his stiffest opposition so far this season and consequently the race has the potential to be the most open race so far.

Red Bull Racing struggled in Monaco on a track which did not suit the characteristics of their car. However, Istanbul is a fast track where aero efficiency plays a major role. The Red Bull duo should fly around here. Their new double-deck diffuser will also make a more noticeable difference here.

They will really fancy their chances of winning this weekend. It’s very important that they do start winning if they are to have any hope of catching Brawn GP in the championship. This race and the next one in Silverstone could critical to their season. A couple of wins, and a title challenge is on. No wins and their challenge could be all but over.

Ferrari are likely to also be a huge threat this weekend. After a terrible start to the season Ferrari have fought back brilliantly. Since the start of season they have gained around a second in performance.

In Monaco, their pace was very close to that of the Brawn GPs and were definitely the best of the rest. They were only 0.1 to 0.2 seconds behind. KERs should also be more useful in Turkey than in previous races, which will add to Ferrari’s victory chances.

Felipe Massa has won the last three Turkish GPs. He obviously knows his way around Istanbul Park better than anyone else. His maiden F1 victory was here in 2006 where he out-raced then championship contenders Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso. In 2007, he out-muscled his team mate Kimi Raikkonen in a straight duel.

Then in 2008 he claimed the hat-trick by beating Lewis Hamilton. Only a fool would rule out his chances of winning for an unprecedented fourth time in a row. He will be one to watch.

McLaren looked strong in Monaco but unfortunately Lewis Hamilton lost the opportunity for a great result, after he crashed at Mirabeau in qualifying. Hamilton will be seriously regretting missing that chance, as Istanbul will reveal the shortcomings of his McLaren just as Catalunya did.

McLaren 's aero efficiency is still poor. Small points are the best Hamilton can hope for this weekend.

BMW Sauber and Toyota both suffered horrendous weekends in Monte-Carlo, and they will want to quickly rectify that. BMW Sauber will be introducing their double diffuser this weekend. Ideally this will give between 0.5 seconds to 1.0 second per lap so they will definitely move up the order this weekend.

Toyota appears to have fallen back since the big upgrades came in Spain. Istanbul should suit their car better than Monaco did, but it’s hard to see them challenging for victory this weekend.

Williams have been the free practice champions this year, and in Monaco finally converted their Friday form to a points finish. They will be hoping for a similar showing this weekend.

Force India got both cars into Q2 in Monaco, which was a great achievement for the team. If they could do that on a standard track like Istanbul it would show tremendous progress. However that may be a tall order, as Toyota and BMW Sauber will not be as poor as they were in Monaco.

Toro Rosso should also be quite competitive too. Sebastien Bourdais will want to add to his hard fought point in Monaco, and banish rumours that he has fallen out with the team while Sébastien Buemi will work hard to erase memories of a rookie mistake at the principality.

Fernando Alonso is adamant that Renault will compete for wins later on in the season just like in 2008. But Renault is still a million miles away from the front. Points are the best Fernando can hope for right now.

The smart prediction is that this will be a very closely fought and exciting race weekend. Brawn GP will still be very strong due to their ability to look after their tyres better than anyone else.

On a track where tyre wear is high this makes them very competitive. However Ferrari and Red Bull look in great shape, and will be challenging closely for victory. Saturday afternoon qualifying, in particular, will be very tight.

Four or five drivers could win the 2009 Turkish GP which makes this the hardest race to predict so far this season.

Personally I am sticking my neck out and predicting that Brawn GP’s supremacy will be halted this weekend and that Felipe Massa’s Turkey dominance will continue.

My top 6 prediction

1. Felipe Massa

2. Sebastien Vettel

3. Jenson Button

4. Mark Webber

5. Rubens Barrichello

6. Robert Kubica

Go to www.YallaF1.com for more Daniel Chalmers content and other F1 features.

Monaco GP Preview: Can Anyone Stop Brawn GP?

Daniel Chalmers — Wed, 20 May 2009 13:13:43 -0400

This weekend, Formula One heads to the streets of Monte-Carlo, the golden ribbon event of the season: the Monaco Grand Prix. There is nothing quite like Monaco. It is the most glamorous and richest race on the calendar.

It is also the oldest race on the F1 calendar, and has existed since 1929. The race was the brain wave of Anthony Noghes, who was president of the Monegasque car club at the time, and has since witnessed some of the most dramatic races in the history of motorsport.

Fierce braking and acceleration are a major feature, and suit a lighter car, but the race distance is about 40 kilometres shorter than most, so drivers have less chance to capitalise.

More pertinently, it’s essential to qualify well because overtaking borders on the impossible, no matter how quick your car might be.

A little flexibility is required, Safety Cars are a tradition, but two-stop strategies are the norm. In 2008, though, Felipe Massa attempted a one-stopper...and would have won had the fluctuating weather not forced him to make a supplementary tyre change.

For the drivers it is the most challenging circuit on the calendar. The slow twisty streets of Monte-Carlo are extremely narrow, and surrounded by armco barriers throughout. There is absolutely nowhere on the track where the drivers can relax.

Mistakes here are punished very heavily. Any small error could mean contact with the barrier, which could result in retirement. To set a fast-lap time the drivers need to take risks, going as close to the walls as they dare, but without losing part of their car. Fortune favours the brave.

The drivers can make a decisive difference to the lap times, as opposed to circuits like Catalunya where it’s all about the car. Monaco separates the great drivers from the world class drivers. Some drivers say that winning the Monaco GP is equivalent to half a world championship. Ayrton Senna won the race an unprecedented 6 times.

Overtaking at Monaco is practically impossible, and the 2009 aero regulations won’t change that. The only half chance is coming out of the tunnel and into the tight chicane. Strategy plays a pivotal role in the race. The strategists on the pit wall will be worked very hard.

Therefore qualifying is absolutely critical. To have any chance of winning, starting at the front is essential. Four of out of the last five Monaco GP’s have been won from pole position.

Qualifying at Monaco under the current knockout system is challenging, as overcoming traffic is more difficult than at any other track. Due to the tightness of the current grid it will be harder still. We have already seen some major casualties in Q1 this season.

The likelihood is that this trend will continue, and you can bet we will see a couple of blocking penalties too. Qualifying could be quite dramatic.

Traffic will also play a major factor in the race itself. Lapping back markers in Monaco is notoriously tough. If the leaders are too cautious or nervous they could lose vital time.

Another feature of races at Monaco is the appearance of the Safety Car. Due to the tight confines of the track, the Safety Car is normally needed to clear the track if a car hits the wall. In fact it is a rare occurrence when a Safety Car is not needed during the race.

In terms of the cars, they are setup with as much down force as possible. However, a car lacking in aero efficiency isn’t a huge drawback, as there aren’t any quick corners.

Brawn GP survived the first set of major upgrades in Spain, and still look to be the team on top in F1 2009. But the question is can they be beaten?

Along with Red Bull, they have been the most consistent teams so far in 2009. They are the main challengers for victory this weekend. Brawn GP in particular will be strong yet again. Monaco’s characteristics should really suit their car.

The car has extremely good traction/exit speeds coming out of the slower corners. The car was quick through the third sector in Catalunya. This sector is made of slow and twisty corners similar to the whole of the Monaco lap.

Red Bull Racing on the other hand is best suited to the faster circuits. This is why the car was very fast in China. The car should also fare very well at tracks like Istanbul and Silverstone, which are coming up in the very near future.

Monaco may not be as strong for them, but their high level of mechanical grip should serve them well on the twisty track.

Red Bull’s victory chances this weekend perhaps depend on whether they can get their double diffuser ready in time. If they can, they could be right up there in the mix with Brawn GP.

Sebastien Vettel will be really desperate to beat Jenson Button this weekend. The gap in the championship between them is currently 18 points. He knows that potentially two big chances were lost in the last two races due to being stuck behind KERs cars, and losing too much time.

The more Button extends his gap the tougher he will become to catch. Button has simply driven faultlessly so far this season. He has a great car underneath him, from which he has extracted the maximum from it. Forty-one out of 45 points is incredible form, only just falling short of Schumacher’s start to the season in 2004 and Mansell’s in 1992.

Rubens Barrichello is another man who will be desperate to beat Button. Spain was his biggest chance so far to register a victory in 2009 but it fell away from him. He needs to start closing the gap to his team mate immediately, otherwise the team will be forced to focus more on the Englishman in terms of the championship.

The next two races are perhaps the crossroads in Barrichalleo's championship. If he can beat Button in Monaco, and again in Turkey it’s game on. On the other hand if he loses out to Button again in the next two rounds then his challenge could be over already.

However, in Monaco there is always a surprise due to the uniqueness of the circuit and Brawn GP's dominance is by no means a given. Who could cause an upset this weekend?

Lewis Hamilton has declared his "love" of Monaco, and has always excelled here. He could mix it near the front. Although repeating his win last season remains unlikely, a podium is possible.

Mclaren Mercedes should be much stronger than they were in Spain. Catalunya always shows up the cars that have major weaknesses, and that’s why Mclaren fell backwards. Monaco often hides the major issues that a poor car has. Even the dreadful 2007 Honda ran reasonably well in Monaco.

Ferrari made a very impressive step forward in Spain. It was practically a new car. They will fancy their chances of being reviving their season after the blunders in Barcelona. Although the team’s recent form at the principality has been woeful. They have only won one Monaco GP this decade, in 2001.

Toyota looked to have slipped back in Spain after the first round of upgrades. They will be looking to get back on track. Jarno Trulli has gone very well in Monte-Carlo in the past. He took a brilliant pole to flag victory in 2004 (his only F1 win so far) and put a Jordan on the front row in 2000

The nature of Monaco is such that there will be surprises come Sunday. Could among these be that: Nico Rosberg finally scores a decent result? Adrian Sutil, a Monaco specialist if there ever was one, repeat his antics of last year without Kimi Raikkonen interfering with his destiny?

And what if rain decides to unload on the principality? Plenty to look forward to this weekend so let the partying begin...

My top eight prediction

1. Jenson Button

2. Sebastien Vettel

3. Rubens Barrichello

4. Lewis Hamilton

5. Jarno Trulli

6. Mark Webber

7. Kimi Raikkonen

8. Nico Rosberg

How Did Rubens Barrichello Lose the Spanish GP?

Daniel Chalmers — Fri, 15 May 2009 09:27:02 -0400

The Spanish GP was yet another triumph for Jenson Button in 2009. However, this is a race which Rubens Barrichello knows should have won.

A change of strategy in Button’s race from three stops to two stops left the conspiracy theorists wondering whether there were team orders at play.

Rubens himself questioned the tactical decision. He also told reporters that he would leave if there was any “sniff” of Jenson being favoured over him.

So were there team orders?

Looking back at the lap times from the race it becomes evidently clear, that it was Ruben’s third stint that cost him race victory.

Brawn GP started the race intending to use a three-stop strategy for both drivers. Brawn GP’s simulations showed this to be the quicker option. Catalunya is one of the worst tracks for tyre degradation on the calendar.

Therefore, three stops becomes a feasible option with shorter stints, which is less demanding on the tyres. Michael Schumacher won the Spanish GP in 2004 making three pit stops.

It started well for Rubens. He made a great start and went around the outside of Jenson in a brave manoeuvre going into turn one. He then edged Button in the opening stint, with the gap between them hovering between 1.0-2.0 seconds

Jenson came in first. This was the point where Brawn GP switched him to two stops. To make a three-stop race work it is vital to have clear track throughout the entire race. The driver also has to be on the limit the whole time to make the most of the strategy.

Any time spent being held up by another car would destroy Jenson’s race. Had the team stuck to the original plan Jenson would have ended up being stuck behind the Williams of Nico Rosberg.

Rubens Barrichello pitted the next lap, and the team left on the originally planned three-stop strategy. As he took less fuel on board he was now comfortably ahead of Button on track. He now had to put the hammer down, and open up a gap.

In this part of the race he was doing a great job, and the plan was working. By the time Rubens pitted for the second time he was over 12.0 seconds ahead of Jenson. He was on target for victory at this point according to the simulations.

In the next phase of the race he now had to close in on Jenson. He could then leapfrog him in the final phase of pit stops. If he could perform as well as he had done in his second stint, then he would be the man standing in the middle of the podium.

This is where it all went wrong.

Instead of making the gap to Jenson smaller, it increased instead. Here is a chart of comparing the lap times of the two Brawn GP drivers in this deciding phase of the race. The quicker time of the pair on each lap is highlighted in bold.

Lap

Last 16 laps of Button’s second stint

Barrichello’s third stint

1'23.742

1'23.436
1'23.386
1'23.394
1'23.406
1'23.463
1'23.485
1'23.454
1'23.444
1'23.637
1'23.561
1'23.583
1'23.464
1'23.591
1'23.537
1'26.217 (in lap)

1'24.097
1'23.906

1'23.731
1'23.895
1'23.558
1'24.055
1'23.491
1'23.911

1'23.653
1'23.916
1'23.861
1'23.517
1'23.382
1'23.594
1'23.683
1'23.536

On most of these laps Jenson delivered a quicker time. The times were also super consistent.

The times are covered by no more than 0.1 or 0.2 seconds (excluding lap 33).

Barrichello’s times on the other hand were slower than Jenson’s apart from the odd exception.

What is also very noticeable is that his times were all over the place compared to Button’s.

There are a few big time differences between a few of those laps. For example on lap 38 he was over 0.5 seconds slower than on lap 39.

At the beginning of his third stint Rubens was 8.7 seconds behind Jenson. On 47 (the lap before Jenson came in for his last stop) that gap had grown to 12.1 seconds.

Barrichello went two laps longer than Jenson coming in on lap 50 for his final pit stop. When Barrichello exited the pits he emerged 7.1 seconds behind Button. He now had to deal with the chasing Mark Webber. At the chequered flag Rubens was 13.0 seconds behind Jenson.

Rubens Barrichello blamed this poor third stint on a bad set of tyres.

He just wasn’t able to deliver the times he needed in the third stint for whatever reason.

He explained after the race that he was surprised when he heard that Jenson had switched to two stops. Maybe when he found this out, the thought of team orders crept into his mind, which could have distracted him.

The drop in performance after he found out about Jenson’s tactical switch, suggests that this could have been the case.

There was certainly no intention of favouring Jenson. The reason for transferring Jenson over to two stops was a legitimate one. The team were still anticipating that Barrichello would come out on top, but it was going to be close.

Credit should be given to Jenson on his own performance. His pace on heavy fuel was stunning. He was struggling initially at the beginning of the weekend, but he altered his driving style to extract more speed.

Jenson Button actually thought he was at a disadvantage when he changed over to two stops. In the end he pulled off another brilliant and flawless performance. He beat Barrichello fair and square.

It’s too early in the season for team orders to be even considered. Yes, Jenson has clearly had an edge over Barrichello so far, but the gap between the pair isn’t as big the results suggest. This season just hasn’t quite gone Barrichello’s way so far.

He is only 14 points behind Jenson Button.

Although there is no doubt that he can’t let the gap grow much bigger. If the gap heads towards the 25 or 30 points mark, then there will be a time, when Ross Brawn will have to tell Rubens that he has to help Jenson. In that scenario that is common sense in this writer’s view.

The next few races are critical for Barrichello’s season. They will decide whether he becomes a title challenger or back to the dreaded role of No. 2.

Anything could happen. Button might swipe the barrier in Monaco, and Rubens could win. That would reduce the gap to just four points and it would be game on!

You can find more Daniel Chalmers content and other F1 stories on www.YallaF1.com

Car Weights and Race Prediction for F1 Spanish GP

Daniel Chalmers — Sat, 09 May 2009 14:16:50 -0400

Fuel weights

1. Jenson Button         Brawn Mercedes        646.0
2. Sebastian Vettel      RBR Renault           651.5
3. Rubens Barrichello    Brawn Mercedes        649.5
4. Felipe Massa          Ferrari               655.0
5. Mark Webber           RBR Renault           651.5
6. Timo Glock            Toyota                646.5
7. Jarno Trulli          Toyota                655.5
8. Fernando Alonso       Renault               645.0
9. Nico Rosberg          Williams Toyota       668.0
10. Robert Kubica         BMW Sauber            660.0
11. Kazuki Nakajima       Williams Toyota       676.6*
12. Nelson Piquet         Renault               677.4*
13. Nick Heidfeld         BMW Sauber            676.3*
14. Lewis Hamilton        McLaren Mercedes      683.0*
15. Sébastien Buemi       STR Ferrari           678.0*
16. Kimi Räikkönen        Ferrari               673.0*
17. Sébastien Bourdais    STR Ferrari           669.0*
18. Heikki Kovalainen     McLaren Mercedes      657.0*
19. Adrian Sutil          Force India Mercedes 675.0*
20. Giancarlo Fisichella Force India Mercedes 656.0*

* declared weight

Jenson Button did brilliantly to get pole position in the dying seconds of qualifying. He hadn’t been happy with the balance of the car so far this weekend. Despite this he put the lap together when it really mattered.

Rubens Barrichello will perhaps be disappointed that it wasn’t him on pole, as he was looking stronger than Jenson up to Q3. Sebastien Vettel continued his top 3 record in qualifying in 2009, which is very impressive.

The fuel weights have now been declared and are listed above

Overall the front runners are pretty much doing the same thing.

Jenson Button will be the first of those at the sharp end to pit and he will be in on lap 14/15. Sebastien Vettel has a couple more laps of fuel onboard, and he will visit the pits for the first time on lap 16/17.

Rubens Barrichello is in between this pair, and he will be in a lap after Jenson, but a lap before Vettel on lap 15/16.

Felipe Massa is the heaviest of the top 5, and he will run till lap 18/19. Mark Webber has exactly the same amount of fuel as Vettel. Obviously they won’t pit at the same time if they are close together on the track. Red Bull will decide who comes in first depending on how the first stint is unfolding.

Furthur back Alonso is the lightest of the top 10 and he will be on lap 13/14.

Lewis Hamilton is the heaviest of everyone and looks like he will be running a 1 stop race. He will be going beyond 30 laps in his first stint. Mclaren have been disappointing, and appear to have dropped back this weekend

From these weights Felipe Massa has to be my star of qualifying. He qualified 4^thamongst quicker cars, which had less fuel than him. Massa has three or four more laps of fuel on board than Jenson, and was only around 0.4 seconds slower than him. Fuel corrected it would have been quite close between the pair. This shows how good Massa is over a single lap, and how far Ferrari has come with these new upgrades.

Credit must be given to Jenson too who pulled off a stunning lap under immense pressure. He almost didn’t make it past the start line in time, after a mis-calculation during his out-lap. He was able to get his head straight again after that immediately.

Vettel did another brilliant job, and fuel corrected was right up there with Jenson too.

My prediction for tomorrow

Button has to be made favourite for this race. In Barcelona the driver on pole has won for the last eight seasons (which is a record). The Brawn GP has looked to have re-established its advantage over the long runs here.

This circuit is very hard on the tyres and this plays into Brawn’s favour, as their car is easy on its tyres. Over the race distance here Brawn GP are up to 0.5 seconds quicker per lap.

Brawn GP don’t enjoy this same advantage in qualifying, so all the more reason why a 1-3 on the grid was a fantastic result for them.

As long as Button gets away well he ought to be able to cruise to a comfortable race victory. Vettel does have a couple more laps of fuel onboard, but I don’t think Red Bull quite has enough race pace this weekend Once they have the new diffuser sorted I am sure they will have.

However we all know that Vettel can produce something special, so he will push Button very hard.

For me Massa is the joker in the pack for this race. He is starting 4^thand has KERs up his sleeve. It’s a very long run down to turn 1 so he has a great chance of having a go at Button at the start.

If Massa could get into the lead he has a genuine chance of winning the race. In Spain it’s impossible to overtake, and he can use KERs to defend down the pit straight. He would also have the tactical advantage with with more fuel than Jenson, so he could continue to stay in front after the pit stops.

It’s actually feasible that Massa could pull off a similar style of victory to Gilles Villeneuve’s Spanish GP win in 1981, where he held a train of cars behind him race long. Just like Massa now, Villeneuve was driving a Ferrari which wasn’t the quickest in the field. Maybe history really could repeat itself?

Barrichello is another potential threat to Button. We have seen in the long runs that Barrichello’s race pace is very strong. If he can get past Vettel early on, and move into 2^ndbehind Jenson, we could see a straight fight between the Brawns. That would be very interesting indeed.

Furthur back I expect a very tight and entertaining battle between Webber, the Toyotas, Alonso and Kubica for the lower points paying positions.

Kimi Raikkonen could also join in this tight scrap if he has a strong first couple of laps. That will be crucial if he is to have any chance of salvaging something from this weekend. It’s shocking to see that Ferrari made exactly the same error again!

In conclusion Jenson Button should win this race. As usual an awful lot depends on what happens at the start. Jenson’s dream ticket would be a clean start and Massa moving into 2^nd and blocking the others.

Massa making an electric start and moving into 1^stwould be difficult even with KERs onboard, but it can be done. Lets remember Rosberg managed that in Sepang without the KERs system. If this happened, Jenson’s life would be made much trickier in this race.

Spain doesn’t normally provide thrilling GPs, and I doubt this will change even with the new aero regulations.

It should still quite an intriguing race though. With all the big upgrades put on the cars for this race, we will learn the likely pecking order for the next quarter of the season.

If Brawn GP can triumph again tomorrow (regardless of everyone else’s efforts to usurp them with upgrades) then you would have to say, that they are starting to look very good for a fairytale championship win.

Of course in F1 anything can happen.

My top 8 prediction

1. Jenson Button

2. Felipe Massa

3. Sebastien Vettel

4. Rubens Barrichello

5. Timo Glock

6. Nico Rosberg

7. Mark Webber

8. Kimi Raikkonen

What Punishment Will McLaren Receive Over the "Lie-Gate" Affair?

Daniel Chalmers — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 06:42:09 -0400

Wednesday, 29 April could have a significant impact on McLaren’s 2009 season. It has already been a troubled start to the season. The car performance hasn’t been what McLaren were hoping for, plus there has been all the fallout from “Lie-Gate” in Melbourne.

McLaren have been called to the World Motor Sport Council (WMSC) to answer charges relating to this incident.

The WMSC have a range of different punishments which they could throw at McLaren. These start off with a basic reprimand/warning. They could choose to fine McLaren.

However, it could be more severe than that. The WMSC could choose take points off the team or ban them for a number of races. They could even ban them from the rest of the season altogether. That’s the worst-case scenario.

We also have to remember that it hasn't been that long since the “Spygate” scandal. This won’t help their cause.

Everyone who is part of the McLaren team is going to have their legs shaking till the final verdict is delivered. Fans worldwide will be holding their breath.

It is very important that the FIA hold their nerve and give the right punishment. Whatever punishment they give McLaren will set a precedent. If they decide to be hard on McLaren, it will set a very dangerous precedent if teams commit similar or worse offences in the future. They have to be consistent in their punishments.

It’s critical that the punishment they choose is in proportion and fits the crime that McLaren have committed. You get the feeling that the FIA realise the importance of getting this decision right.

Whilst it’s true that lying to the stewards is a serious offence, there are far worse offences. These include a driver deliberately ramming a rival off the track, ignoring a black flag, or having an illegal part on the car (which gives an advantage) and keeping it under wraps. These are just a few examples.

If the FIA were to give a season ban to McLaren over “Lie-Gate,” then what would they do if one of the above offences were committed in future? It would have to be a harsher punishment than the one they give to McLaren over Lie-Gate in order to be consistent and not come under immense scrutiny.

It would be like giving someone the death penalty for robbery, and then somebody afterwards committing a murder. What higher punishment would you be able to hand out then?

This is why the FIA risk going into murky waters if they opt to give McLaren the worst sanction possible. They have to tread carefully, no matter how tempted they are to punish McLaren heavily.

It can’t be forgotten that McLaren have already suffered punishment over this incident. McLaren were disqualified from the Australian GP, losing six points. Lewis Hamilton and the team have also suffered major dents in their reputation. This reputation is going to take a long time to recover. It might never recover.

Lewis’s career has been badly affected. A long-term employee of McLaren (Dave Ryan) has also lost his job as a result of Lie-Gate. It could be argued that there is no need to punish the team any further.

So what is going to be the outcome of this hearing?

An important factor that will go in McLaren’s favour is that Martin Whitmarsh very quickly apologised and admitted that McLaren were in the wrong.

Lewis Hamilton also made that emotional apology in front of the world’s media in Sepang. The FIA accepted this apology. From this acceptance of the apology, it seems likely that any punishment given is going to be aimed at just the team. Hamilton will very likely escape any sanction against him personally.

Lewis Hamilton has attracted many fans to the sport and is the one of the grid’s most exciting drivers. He is now one of F1’s star attractions. Bernie Ecclestone knows that if Hamilton wasn’t on the grid, it would be damaging for audience figures. Therefore his wallet would suffer in the process. His wallet has already taken a big battering after the recent divorce from his wife.

After Michael Schumacher’s incident with Jacques Villeneuve in 1997 at Jerez, there were calls for him to be excluded from the 1998 championship. However, Schumacher was the big star attraction at the time. He ended up being allowed to start the 1998 season from the start.

His presence resulted in a very exciting title battle with Mika Hakkinen. You can see why Bernie didn’t want him banned from races, or excluded from the championship. It’s a similar case here with Hamilton.

Martin Whitmarsh has also written an apology letter to the FIA. He has effectively pleaded guilty to all the charges facing McLaren. The fact that he has done this could certainly help reduce McLaren’s punishment.

In February 2008 the FIA were due to have an unprecedented meeting to decide the legality of McLaren’s 2008 entry as a result of “Spygate.” A letter from Martin Whitmarsh apologising for the Spygate scandal helped McLaren’s cause greatly.

After receipt of that letter that February meeting was soon abandoned. McLaren were then allowed to take part in the 2008 championship. McLaren agreed to go down a different route with the development of their brake system. This is an idea they admitted came from the infamous 780-page Ferrari document.

Therefore, I think the letter from Whitmarsh will make a big difference for McLaren again this time. He won’t be contesting any of the charges against the team. This in fact now makes the hearing a much simpler affair.

His guilty plea to all these charges has removed the need for much of the investigation. The FIA will now not need to hear any evidence from the key figures in Lie-Gate, including Dave Ryan and Lewis Hamilton. Martin Whitmarsh is now going to be entering the hearing alone.

McLaren should never have gotten themselves into this mess in the first place. However, they have reacted well to it in the aftermath and done everything possible to limit the damage. Pleading guilty to all the charges and accepting full responsibility could prove to be the right move. Certainly in everyday life pleading guilty to an offence can reduce the sentence that gets handed out.

The resignation of Ron Dennis has been seen as another factor that could help McLaren. The relationship between Max Mosley and Ron Dennis has been very frosty over the years. Dennis has already denied claims that his decision to resign has anything to do with “Lie-Gate,” although it’s very hard to imagine that the timing of the two events has just been a mere coincidence.

McLaren have also stated their intention to build bridges with the FIA, and improve their relationship. Under Martin Whitmarsh, McLaren now want to change as a team and alter their image. McLaren are going to become a different team to the one we got used to under Ron Dennis.

I am sure many think there will be a massive punishment, but in the end I don’t think it will be that severe.

Surely McLaren will get a sizeable fine. They are also likely to suffer a points deduction. This could range from anything between 20 and 50 points. A suspended race ban is also a possibility. This means that if McLaren do break the rules again, then they would definitely be faced with a race ban.

The absolute worst-case scenario I feel is that McLaren are excluded from the Constructors' Championship. This would be similar to 2007, but they were still allowed to enter races and score in the drivers' championship. There is an outside chance of them facing a two-race ban. I can’t see the outcome being worse than that.

Nevertheless, you can never quite tell what the FIA have up their sleeves. They have made some strange decisions in the past.

Let’s hope that for the sake of the 2009 campaign that the appropriate punishment is given, and that the line can be drawn under this affair. Let’s get back to the racing!

F1: Bahrain Talking Points

Daniel Chalmers — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 14:43:34 -0400

The Bahrain GP weekend was another intriguing F1 race weekend with plenty more talking points. Let’s look at the main points of this weekend’s action.

Button’s pass on Hamilton sets him up to win against the odds. Was it his best performance of the season so far?

Going into the race it wasn’t looking brilliant for Jenson. He had qualified fourth and was surrounded by KERS cars. To make matters worse, the Brawn GP was struggling badly with overheating. The temperature was three or four degrees higher than they could realistically cope with. The Brawn GP car wouldn’t be able to tolerate staying in another car’s turbulent air for too long.

The first couple of laps were going to be crucial if Jenson was going to have any chance of winning. Button got a decent start and was able to get ahead of Sebastien Vettel. Unfortunately, Hamilton pressed his KERS button halfway down the straight, and was able to get ahead. Button was also heavily challenged by the Ferraris but he managed to hold them off. That was critical.

Button was currently fourth behind Hamilton, and the two Toyotas were running away ahead. Button had to pass Hamilton. At the end of the first lap Hamilton made an error at turn 14. This allowed Button to get up right close. Button then nailed Hamilton in a very brave out-braking move into turn one. Had Button not made this move, he would have been stuck behind Hamilton for a long time. He would have then had to hang back so his car didn’t overheat.

However, now he had some clear track, and importantly clean air. He managed to keep the gap to the Toyotas stable. He was running longer and was able to leapfrog the pair of them at the pit stops.

As the Trulli train formed Button was able to get away and build a gap of around thirteen seconds, which he then maintained for the rest of the race.

It was a fantastic performance by Jenson Button. This was his best drive of the season. The car didn’t have the advantage it had at previous events. There was the overheating issue too, which Ross Brawn described before the race as "trouble." He had a lot of work to do at the start to make a victory challenge even possible. He pulled it off brilliantly.

Button has now extended his championship lead to 12 points, and is looking in brilliant shape.

Should Toyota have won their first race?

I think they should have, and they may well look back on this race with some regret. Toyota was very fast this weekend. They were comfortably the quickest in qualifying (and that’s even taking into account the fuel loads). They were also 1-2 in the fastest lap of the race charts. In terms of pace they had the edge on their closest rivals.

In the first stint they were dominating and looking in great shape. However, from the first stop onwards it started to go wrong and they fell backwards.

They decided to switch onto the harder tyre for their long middle stint, which proved to be the wrong move. Both Trulli and Glock struggled for performance on this tyre. Trulli held up Vettel and Hamilton, losing ground on Button with each passing lap. Glock struggled even more with the tyres and fell even further back. They should have put on the super-softs for this stint of the race.

Trulli was then on the right tyre for the last stint. However he then ended up being leapfrogged by Vettel, who was running longer than him in the second stint. If Trulli could have passed Vettel early on, he could have put pressure on Button (who was now doing his stint with the harder and slower tyre), and make him have to push and put his revs up higher. Jarno, however, never got close to attempting a move on the young German.

Trulli ended up with a podium at the end of the race, but it could have been a completely different story. Toyota lost out by being too conservative on their strategy. This is something that they have now conceded.

A key factor could have been Toyota’s lack of experience in racing at the front of the pack. Ross Brawn on the other hand has years of experience at calling the shots at the front. He hardly ever makes a strategic error. I think this is an important difference between the two teams. I am sure Toyota will have learned a lot from this race and their tactics will improve in future.

The team are looking in very good shape at the moment and they will get another opportunity to win soon.

Vettel was the pre-race favourite after the car weights were revealed. Why didn’t he win?

Vettel could have challenged for the win but didn’t end up in clean air when he needed to be. At the start he was overtaken by Hamilton, but wasn’t able to re-pass him quickly like Button was able to. Vettel couldn’t find a way past. Every time Vettel was getting close, Hamilton could defend with his KERS button. He ended spending the whole stint behind Lewis. This lost him over ten seconds.

In the second stint he then got stuck behind Jarno Trulli’s Toyota. At this point of the race Vettel was around one second faster than Jarno but couldn’t find a way through. This allowed Button to drive into the distance.

Vettel managed to leap into second place after the second round of pit stops but it was too late. He also had Jarno Trulli on the super-soft tyre right behind him, and therefore was now defending against him.

Being behind slower cars cost him the potential of challenging for a second successive victory, but second is still an extremely strong result. Maybe he should have tried a lunge into turn one, as Button did to Lewis with success early on in the race.

Could McLaren still win this championship?

It’s not impossible that McLaren could fight back and win a championship this season. The amount of progress that they have made since pre-season testing has been staggering. In the test in Spain they were over two seconds of the pace of Brawn GP.

However, McLaren have immense resources and personnel. If anyone can quickly cure their problems and close the gap it’s McLaren. Remember 2004 when McLaren came back to win at Spa after a dreadfully slow and unreliable start to the season.

Each weekend so far this season they have made strides forward. Hamilton did a great qualifying lap and was fifth on the grid on merit rather the result of a lighter fuel load. He qualified ahead of Barrichello with more fuel on board.

In the race he was able to keep up with the front runners, but fell back a bit in the last stint. Fourth was still a stunning result for the team. This a result which many would have regarded as impossible before the season began.

Perhaps the most impressive fact was Lewis’s position in the fastest laps of the race chart. His lap was less than 0.4 seconds slower than Trulli’s quickest lap. Both of their fastest laps were set towards the end of the first stint. That is now the gap Mclaren have between themselves and the front three of Red Bull, Toyota, and Brawn (who incidentally are now much more closely matched than at the start of 2009).

In Spain, McLaren will be bringing a substantial upgrade. A few weeks ago there were predictions from people inside the team, saying that the car would fly in Spain. That suggestion sounded crazy back then, but after seeing the progress the car is making, then maybe it’s not impossible.

McLaren will have keep control of their expectations as other teams including Ferrari and BMW Sauber are planning massive upgrades as well. Brawn GP are also introducing their first major season upgrade in Spain. Therefore, they can’t be too cocky.

Nobody is going to be standing still between now and Spain. Lewis admitted that there is even a chance of Mclaren falling backwards in Spain. It all depends on how good everyone else’s upgrades are. The order could look completely different in Spain, as the field is so tight. A few tenth’s worth of development will shuffle teams around.

Catalunya is a circuit where it’s important to have really good aerodynamic efficiency, and good tyre management. This is a very demanding circuit where cars with shortcomings are found out. If McLaren can show a good performance there, then signs could be very promising for the rest of the season.

I think McLaren will end up winning races this season, but I feel they will have to wait a bit longer. I can see them returning as regular front runners in the second half of the season.

In terms of the championship it could be too late by then. The gap could be too big to close down. Of course the other factor is what punishment McLaren receive from the WMSC on Wednesday.

Why were BMW Sauber down at the back of the field?

BMW Sauber probably had their worse race since starting out in 2006. Their race went downhill right front the start when they made contact with other cars on the first lap. Both cars lost some aerodynamic parts, and this affected their performance for the duration.

BMW Sauber seem to have gone backwards since the season began, as opposed to making some progress as Ferrari, Renault, and Mclaren have. For a team that were so bullish about their championship chances in 2009 it has been a very disappointing start.

It will feel even more disappointing to the team, since they shifted focus onto the 2009 car after their win in Canada last season. This was despite the fact Robert Kubica was leading the championship after that race.

Any hopes of Robert Kubica leading the championship at some point this season look pretty grim. They have pinned all their hopes on an upgrade in Spain, but everyone will have them. It will have to be a pretty spectacular upgrade if they want to challenge for this year’s title.

They may now regret that they didn’t push harder for the 2008 title. Then again they won’t have been expecting McLaren and Ferrari not to make so many errors in the second half of the season. However if you have any sniff at all of challenging for a title you should always try and push for it.

Instead they pinned 2009 as their major title challenge. Maybe 2008 could have been that year and it eluded them.

Have the teams running KERS lost out?

The three front runners: Brawn GP, Toyota, and Red Bull do not use KERS. The teams that have used the KERS system so far: McLaren, Ferrari, Renault, and BMW Sauber have all endured difficult starts to the season.

It seems that KERS hasn’t given the teams running it, as much of an advantage as predicted in the early stages. It’s useful at the start on tracks with a long run down to turn one. It has also proven to be very useful when defending a position, and occasionally when on the offence.

In terms of the overall lap time KERS hasn’t added that much. Maybe around 0.3 seconds per lap.

The teams operating KERS have spent millions and invested a huge amount of time in getting in the device to work in terms of performance, safety, and reliability. Also they have had to deal with the weight disadvantage. They are not as free to distribute the weight around the car.

The teams who opted not to run KERS have been more fully focused in adapting their cars to the new aerodynamic regulations. There has been more time to be won from adapting this approach. KERS hasnt taken up a large weight on their minds (quite literally).

Those teams who opted to run KERS haven’t spent as much time purely focusing on the aerodynamics, and have been building their car to accommodate KERS.

Toyota has been the most critical of KERS saying that at most tracks it won’t be much of an advantage. So far they look to be right. Many thought teams like Toyota would suffer in races because of not having KERS. It hasn’t worked out that way at all.

Building a car that doesn’t have to accommodate KERS, and focusing purely on the aero has proved the correct decision as it stands.

Will a KERS car win a race this season? I think Mclaren may win a few races later on in the season, but I don’t hold as much hope for the others.

Has overtaking improved?

Bahrain was the first “normal conditions” race. In Australia, the race was in the evening with cooler track temperatures. Also the super soft tyre there turned out to be a disaster. That had a major effect on spicing up that race. Sepang and Shanghai were both wet races.

Bahrain was then a true test of how much overtaking has improved. Overall, it didn’t turn out to be a race with much overtaking. On a track where its meant to be easy to overtake, that’s not good news. We saw quite a few battles in the early laps of the race, but that’s when the field was still bunched together after the start.

The new regulations were supposed to make the following time just one second. Vettel was much faster when he was following Hamilton and Trulli, but he never came close to overtaking them. The Trulli train made an unwelcome return.

The cars look as if they can follow each other a little bit more closely but not necessarily close enough to make overtaking easier. Overall I would say there has been a slight improvement in overtaking, but not the significant improvement fans were hoping. Most of the drivers have all commented that overtaking is still difficult. Timo Glock went as far as saying it was now even tougher.

Overtaking cars with KERS is near impossible if you don’t have the system yourself. A driver who has KERS can press the button when the car behind is in their slipstream and pull away. It’s vital not to end up behind a car that uses the system as some found out to their cost in the Bahrain GP. This is why Button’s move on Hamilton on lap two was so special, and critical to his race result.

A factor in Bahrain was that the slipstreams were very hot due to the conditions. Some drivers may have been holding back, due to overheating issues.

Therefore I think Spain may be the confirmation of whether the racing has improved or not. In Spain, we always tend to get dull races. If we see a few more moves than usual, then there has been a definite step forward. If we get the usual tedious Spanish GP then we know that not enough has been done to help address the overtaking issue. A re-think may be necessary.

Bahrain Grand Prix: Car Weights and Race Predictions

Daniel Chalmers — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 12:55:23 -0400

1. Trulli Toyota 648.5

2. Glock Toyota 643.0

3. Vettel Red Bull-Renault 659.0

4. Button Brawn-Mercedes 652.5

5. Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 652.5

6. Barrichello Brawn-Mercedes 649.0

7. Alonso Renault 650.5

8. Massa Ferrari 664.5

9. Rosberg Williams-Toyota 670.5

10. Raikkonen Ferrari 671.5

11. Kovalainen McLaren-Mercedes 678.5

12. Nakajima Williams-Toyota 680.9

13. Kubica BMW-Sauber 698.6

14. Heidfeld BMW-Sauber 696.3

15. Piquet Renault 677.6

16. Sutil Force India-Mercedes 679.0

17. Buemi Toro Rosso-Ferrari 678.5

18. Fisichella Force India-Mercedes 652.0

19. Webber Red Bull-Renault 656.0

20. Bourdais Toro Rosso-Ferrari 667.5

Finally the car weights are in and there are some very interesting conclusions. The Toyotas aren’t that much lighter as many were expecting. Sebastien Vettel is heavier than those around him so he is in a particularly strong position.

Timo Glock is the lightest of the front runners and he will come in around lap 12/13. Trulli has two laps more fuel and will be in on lap 14/15. Jenson Button will be in on lap 15/16. So this is only one lap after Trulli is due to stop.

This means that Trulli comfortably beat Button on merit, and not because of a much lighter fuel load. This just shows what a brilliant lap Trulli produced. It’s what we have come to expect from him.

Vettel is looking very good for the race. He has qualified third and he has about six laps more fuel than Glock and about three or four laps more fuel than pole sitter Trulli. He will be visiting the pits for the first time on lap 18/19.

Hamilton will also come in on lap 15/16. He got amongst the Brawn GPs on merit. He had more fuel on board than Barrichello who is behind him. McLaren has made a massive stride forward in the last few weeks.

Barrichello is down in sixthand only has 14/15 laps of fuel on board. Barrichello simply didn’t have a great lap at all. He has it all to do tommorrow.

Massa, Rosberg and Raikkonen are the heaviest men of the top 10, and will all be doing a long first stint beyond 20 laps.

The BMW Saubers are the heaviest cars on the grid and will be going beyond lap 30. They are surely on a one-stop strategy.

Summary of difference in laps of fuel between the front runners

Timo Glock is the lightest on fuel

Jarno Trulli + 2/3 laps

Rubens Barrichello + 2/3 laps

Jenson Button +3/4 laps

Lewis Hamilton + 3/4 laps

Sebastien Vettel +5/6 laps

My race predictions

Tommorrow is looking like it’s a very open race. Brawn GP are going to have work extremely hard if they want to win this race. In qualifying the fuel loads show that Brawn GP was beaten on pure pace.

Jarno Trulli beat Button by just over 0.6 seconds. Being one or 2 laps lighter doesn’t account for all that time difference. Brawn GP look like they have been overtaken in terms of one lap pace.

Toyota is just very quick this weekend. We hadn’t seen their full potential yet this season as they have had some penalties, and we have had two rain affected races. Today they have proven that they have a fast car.

Whether they can translate that to their maiden F1 win is a different matter.

Brawn GP’s long runs have looked very good, although their race pace isn’t as dominant as it was in Australia. They are able to look after their tyres, particularly the super-softs better than anybody else.

However, we now know that they can’t rely on having substantially more fuel to get ahead, so they are going to have to overtake cars if they want to win this race.

Their other main problem is that they are surrounded by cars with KERs. Off the line KERs will be a big advantage here, as it’s a much longer run down to turn 1 than in China last week.

This means by the end of lap one, Brawn could be as many as three or four positions down on where they started. This means that despite their likely superior race pace, they could well end up giving themselves far too much to do to win the race.

If they get stuck behind cars with KERs, it will be very tough to overtake them, as the boast button will be used in order to defend.

Vettel is my favourite for tommorrow’s race. The Red Bull looks to be working very well around Bahrain just as it did in China. He is also heavier than the Toyotas ahead of him, and the cars directly behind him.

If he gets a solid start and keeps Toyota in sight, then come the pit stops he has a great chance of leapfrogging them. He has shown how strong his race pace is so far this season. But like the Brawns, he too has be wary of the KERs cars.

Hamilton has got an outside chance of a podium tomorrow. The car looks much better this weekend, and he seems very positive and up for the fight. Fifth was a great result for him. He is the first of the KERs cars on the grid, and he will fancy his chances at getting amongst the front runners into turn 1.

I think this race will either be won by Timo Glock or Sebastien Vettel. Jarno Trulli’s race pace isn’t as strong as his one lap pace so I think he will start well but fall back as the race progesses. Vettel and Glock will take over the battle for the win. As Vettel is heavier than Glock, and has been looking strong all weekend I will back him for the victory. It will be very closely fought though.

Button could join this battle if he gets a good start and doesn’t lose too much time behind KERS cars. The first couple of laps tomorrow are going to be critical in how the battle for victory unfolds, and who is going to contest it.

I think we are in for a great race with lots of overtaking tomorrow, It could be the best so far this season. I am really looking forward to it!

Let’s hope we don’t get the sandstorm that is currently being predicted.

My top 8 predictions

1. Sebastien Vettel

2. Timo Glock

3. Jenson Button

4. Lewis Hamilton

5. Jarno Trulli

6. Rubens Barrichello

7. Heikki Kovalainen

8. Felipe Massa

Can Brawn GP Fight Back In the Bahrain Grand Prix?

Daniel Chalmers — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 05:34:39 -0400

For the second time already this season there are two races back to back. It’s been a fantastic season so far with three thrilling races. F1 2009 is providing us with plenty of surprises, and a completely different grid order.

This weekend Formula 1 goes to Bahrain, which is a track with different challenges and conditions, which should be the opposite of the cool and wet weather we saw in Shanghai.

Track History and Guide

Bahrain is another of F1’s modern facilities built by Hermann Tilke. The facilities here are state of the art and no expense has been spared. Bahrain signed the deal with Bernie to host the GP back in 2002.

The organisers then did a great job to build it in 2 years ready for the first race in 2004. All the organisers are extremely welcoming and provide exceptional hospitality for the F1 circus and all of the media.

Bahrain was the first F1 race to be held in the Middle East region. There were other countries from the same region hoping to brag that right, such as Egypt and Lebanon but Bahrain won the battle.

They have reaped the benefits since as they are now the centre of motorsport in the gulf and attract a host of other racing series including: Drag racing, GP2, Formula 3, GT Races and more recently the Australian V8 supercars.

Bahrain has been a relatively successful F1 event always providing interesting races, and in 2004 the track won the award for best-organized race of the year.

The track’s desert setting makes this track very unique. The sight of the track surrounded by sand makes it very nice to look it. The sand can be a problem but it is compacted down to minimize the amount of sand that comes onto the track.

This process costs the organisers thousands of pounds. However there is still always sand offline, so drivers will lose time if they lose their line in any of the corners.

The teams will be hoping that there won’t be a repeat of the sandstorms which struck in winter testing.

It is very hot in Bahrain but the humidity is nowhere near as bad as in Sepang. Therefore it is more bearable for the drivers.

The track itself is made out of 3 long straights, with a tight and twisty infield section in the middle. The track is also extremely wide.

The trickiest section on the circuit by far is turns 9 and 10. It starts off as a fast sweeping bend but suddenly gets tighter and tighter, and becomes a sharp left hand bend. It’s a very common site to see drivers lock-up and miss the apex here.

It’s important to brake accurately into turns 1, 4 and 13. It’s so easy to lock-up the brakes, and slide a little bit offline into the sand, which will lose the drivers time. On the plus side if you make a really bad error there is plenty of runoff.

The fact that the run-off areas are the size of football pitches is one of the biggest criticisms of the track. Many feel that drivers should be more heavily punished when they go off the track.

In terms of setup it’s important to achieve a good straight line speed down all the straights. The setup will need to be compromised slightly in order for the car to handle well in the twisty infield section of the track. Most time can be won in the slow corners. However engineers can’t focus on the infield section too much, otherwise speed will be lost down the long straights.

Bahrain is a big test on the cars. At the end of the each of the three long straights is a heavy braking zone. Time can be won and lost here. Therefore it’s crucial that the car’s brakes are working well. Over the race distance brake wear could be a big issue, so the drivers that don’t trash their brakes early on in the race will benefit later on.

Bahrain is also hard on the tyres. With the usual hot conditions the track temperature can go sky high. A boiling track will increase the rate of tyre wear. Drivers will have to look after their tyres well over the race stints. The heat also means keeping the cars as cool as possible will be another issue, just as it was in Sepang.

Bahrain is the one of the easiest tracks to overtake on in F1. With a slow corner leading onto the long pit straight, it is easy to stick to the car in front.

Then there is a heavy braking zone at the end. We will see plenty of moves there in the race.

Turn 4 is another heavy braking area after a long straight. Same applies to turn 14. So that’s at least 3 obvious places where passing is feasible.

Even in the last few seasons, where overtaking has been near impossible, we have still see overtaking at Bahrain. With the new 2009 aero regulations the racing should be even better.

We should see KERs being more of an advantage. With a much longer run down to turn 1 than in China, more metres can be gained off the line with the KERs system on board. Also the drivers with KERs will probably make full use of the system on the exits of all the corners leading onto a straight.

Overall Bahrain is a great track with the possibility of providing great wheel to wheel action. The main negatives are that the circuit lacks the atmosphere and soul of classic circuits such as Spa and Silverstone. The other big criticism as mentioned early is the huge areas of runoff, which arguably makes life too easy for the drivers than it should be.

Form Guide and Predictions?

Brawn GP started the season perfectly by dominating the first two races. However in China they suffered their first slight blip as Red Bull usurped them in the wet conditions. As Red Bull doesn’t yet have a new diffuser it was a particularly impressive victory for them. However a solid 3-4 finish still leaves Brawn GP dominating the standings, and is still very much the team to beat this weekend.

Jenson Button is also looking very strong in the drivers’ championship, having scored 21 points out of the first 25 available. That is great championship form. He is really stepping up to the plate now he finally has a great car.

He has beaten his team mate Rubens Barrichello in all three races so far. Barrichello has to up his game so that he doesn’t get stuck with the dreaded number 2 status again, that he suffered at Ferrari. It’s a very important weekend for the Brazilian.

Brawn GP still has the quickest car in dry conditions. In China Brawn GP were 1-2 in qualifying when you take the fuel loads into account and do the maths. Had the race been dry they would been able to demonstrate their superior race pace, as the car is very easy on its tyres. They ought to have won that race 1-2 once the strategies played out.

However in the wet conditions the Brawn wasn’t able to keep the heat in its tyres as well as the Red Bull did. This was key to how the Chinese GP unfolded. The wet weather demonstrated the team’s only real flaw so far.

This isn’t a huge surprise as the car had hardly done any running at all in the wet. Sepang was the only bit of wet running they have had. Jenson had that race won in the dry section of the race so the rain wasn’t a major issue there. They are still yet to find a good balance in the rain.

In Bahrain the expected hot temperatures should play into Brawn GP’s hands. The ability to look after the tyres in race stints will give them an advantage over their opponents in these tough conditions, particularly at the end of the stints. In dry race conditions Brawn GP’s advantage could still around 0.5 seconds per lap over their nearest rival.

In qualifying the gap isn’t as big. Red Bull, Toyota and Williams are all capable of threatening Brawn GP’s position on the front row of the grid. Any of their drivers could try and go light, or try a radical strategy so that they can try and mix it with the Brawns.

It will be interesting to see close Red Bull can be to Brawn GP in this race. However I don’t expect an even challenge between the pair until Red Bull get their new diffuser sorted out.

Toyota could play a major role this weekend. We have see glimpses of the pace that the car has. We haven’t really had a major indicator of where they are in race trim. In Australia they started at the back of the grid, and it has rained in the last two races.

Toyota was also one of the teams that came to Bahrain to do extensive testing. Therefore this may give them a bit of a head start. The design of the car was focused to be easy on its rear tyres, so this could also be play into their hands at Bahrain. They could be as big threat as Red Bull is to Brawn GP.

Williams too have shown some pace but haven’t yet utilised it. If they can get it together this weekend they there is no reason why they can’t join in the battle to catch Brawn GP.

Ferrari, Renault and BMW are all in need of a result this weekend. It’s been a terrible start to the season for all of them, especially as they were all touted as title contenders pre-season. Not much will change this weekend as a week between races isn’t enough time to put major upgrades on the car. All are just in need of getting some valuable points on the board.

Ferrari and BMW should be stronger this weekend. They both tested here along with Toyota in winter testing. Ferrari will be hoping that they can get their KERs system operating reliably again, as there is time to be gained from KERs around Bahrain. This group of teams will be hoping that they can start making in-roads on the group in front of them.

Mclaren have started to make improvements. In China the car looked much better than it did at the start of the season in Melbourne. The car now seems more driveable and Lewis seems happier. A solid double points finish in China was a great result for Mclaren.

I think their upward trend will continue in Bahrain. Another double points finish is a distinct possibility. Mclaren also appear to be the leader in terms of having the best KERs package so far this season.

It is reliable and is very well packaged so they don’t have a huge weight penalty because of it. They have made it work really well and appears to be giving them a useful advantage. The team are very happy with it. That’s at least one thing they nailed in 2009.

For all of these chasing teams this weekend is about getting as many points as possible. Spain is going to be pivotal for many down the pit lane. This is where we will be seeing huge upgrades, and possibly more “double decker” diffusers popping up. It’s a chance for teams like Ferrari and BMW to get back into the running in 2009.

Conclusion

It should be another exciting weekend at Bahrain with more great racing, and maybe a few more surprises throughout the grid. Brawn GP is most definitely the team to beat, unless we get a rare desert rain storm as the Moto GP riders suffered in Qatar a couple of weeks ago.

It will be a close battle between the chasing pack of Red Bull, Toyota and Williams. It will be interesting to see how hard they can fight Brawn GP. And could one of the underperforming giants behind go and join them?

Brawn should just edge this race but it won’t be easy at all.

My top 5 prediction

1. Button

2. Vettel

3. Trulli

4. Barrichello

5. Webber

The Big Talking Points After The Chinese GP Weekend

Daniel Chalmers — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:55:46 -0400

China produced another extremely exciting race with Red Bull winning their first ever race in Formula One. The rain, which was worse than predicted gave the drivers a real challenge. They really had to work for their money, which is what everyone wants to see.

We saw a few stunning performances, along with some error strewn races, too.

So let’s have a look at the main stories to take away from the Chinese GP weekend.

Exceptional performance from Red Bull and both their drivers.

This one-two finish for Red Bull was more than deserved. In the first two races, Red Bull threatened to deliver a great result but it just didn’t happen. The potential was there for all to see though.

Vettel was second in Melbourne, until the tangle with Robert Kubica. In Malaysia Webber said he could have won had the heavy rain and red flag not arrived when it did.

In China it all came together for the team. The team opted to go light in qualifying and Vettel grabbed pole position with Mark Webber third. In the race the car was in a class of its own, and both Vettel and Webber drove brilliantly. The Red Bull seems to work really well in the wet conditions.

The car was very well balanced, and kept its heat in the tyres more efficiently than anyone else. They were so fast that their light fuel load didn’t put them at a disadvantage at all.

Vettel’s move on Jenson Button for the lead after his final pit stop (and before Jenson’s last stop) demonstrated how much quicker Red Bull was.

At times Sebastien Vettel was over two seconds a lap quicker than his nearest opponents. Unlike most other drivers in the race he didn’t make a single error all afternoon. He made it look so simple, which the sign of a great driver.

He has a great feel for tricky conditions, just as he showed at Monza last season. This race has shown us that the victory in Monza wasn’t just a one-off. If anything this performance was even more impressive

He really is the real deal and surely a future world champion. The added pressure on him this season doesn’t seem to be getting to him at all. He also isn’t getting carried away with his success. He still has the same charming personality and has his feet firmly on the ground. He has the maturity of a driver well beyond his years.

Mark Webber will be disappointed not to have won the first race for the team. However, he still finished a very strong second, and is right up there with Vettel in the championship standings. Considering the tough winter that Mark Webber has had, he can still feel very proud.

If someone had told him after his accident (when he broke his leg) that he would get a second place within the first three races of 2009 he probably wouldn’t have believed them. Apparently he is still limping slightly when he isn’t in the car.

Red Bull will now be hoping they can get their new diffuser sorted out as soon as possible. Once they have got that sorted they will be a real force to be reckoned with.

Brawn GP still have the fastest car but China demonstrated their only major flaw

Red Bull may have dominated this week, but Brawn GP are still the quickest team on the grid. Fuel corrected Barrichello was actually the real star of qualifying. Button was second quickest when you took fuel loads into account, whereas the Red Bulls would only have been fourth and fifth.

In dry conditions Brawn GP’s race pace is also still stronger. The car is easy on it’s tyres so therefore is quick at the end of a race stint. Had the race have been dry Brawn GP ought to have cruised to another one-two, once the race strategies had played out.

However the race was wet and this changed things completely for Brawn GP. Brawn GP have hardly done any running with this car in the wet. This race shows that the car doesn’t work brilliantly in these conditions. The car had trouble keeping heat into it’s tyres, and that's why it struggled to keep the Red Bull cars in sight.

Brawn GP won in Malaysia mainly because Button had the race won before the storm arrived. In the wet they were then able to hold onto their position. Button had commented back then that the car was badly balanced in the wet.

Brawn GP will have to work on making sure the car works more effectively in the wet conditions in the future.

Finishing third and fourth,though is still a very useful result. Button has scored 21 points out of the first 25 available (not 30 due to half points in Sepang). Brawn GP are also still comfortably ahead in the Constructors championship. That is great championship form. If you had told Jenson last season that he would score 21 points (would have been 26 if it wasn't for the early red flag in Sepang) in the first three races of 2009 he probably would have fainted.

Again he beat Rubens Barrichello comfortably. He is now starting to establish a clear gap over Rubens. Rubens needs respond to his team mate or risk ending up in the same situation as he did at Ferrari.

Overall losing this race hasn’t done Brawn that much harm, especially as Red Bull had only scored one point before this race.

If it is hot and dry in Bahrain as you would expect then Brawn GP should be victorious again. However Red Bull are closing in.

Another nightmare for Ferrari, although Massa was one of the stars of the race

Unbelievably Ferrari have scored no points for the third race running. They were even slower here than they had been in Australia and Malaysia. Due to reliability problems with their KERs system, they opted not to run it in China. This lost them even more time.

However despite this Massa drove a fantastic race. He was storming his way through the field, and made mince meat of his own team mate. When the Safety Car came out he was sitting in a very strong position.

He could very well have challenged Button for the final podium place. Unfortunately reliability struck yet again, and Massa pulled out of the race with an electrical problem.

Kimi Raikkonen didn’t suffer reliability issues but failed to make an impression. His main highlight of the race was an ongoing battle with Lewis Hamilton.

Ferrari have now got to work extremely hard to solve their issues. If they don’t get some big results soon they may have to write off this season and start focusing on 2010. The atmosphere in the team seems very pessimistic and negative at the moment.

This is very unlike the Ferrari team we have seen in the past. Stefano Domenicali has to change this as a matter of urgency.

Ferrari have to get their KERs system working again, and get the new diffuser up and running as soon as possible. If Ferrari don’t produce something in Bahrain (where they tested extensively over the winter), and Spain (where all the teams bring major upgrades) then it’s very hard to see them bouncing back.

I think the loss of the dream team compromising of Michael Schumacher, Jean Todt, Ross Brawn and Rory Bryne is now really starting take it’s toll on the team. Who wouldn’t miss four people of that calibre? They are simply irreplaceable.

Ferrari simply haven’t done as good a job at adapting to the new 2009 rules as others have, with the added problem of decision making and reliability being very poor too.

Are Ferrari now sinking into oblivion? Or can the new-look team show their worth and fight back? The next few weeks are going to give us the answer.

Piquet Jnr and Nakajima are the front runners in the F1 sack race

Both drivers had a poor weekend in China. Piquet Jnr qualified 17th for the third time this season. He maybe didn’t have the new bits on the car that Alonso had, but the car is still quicker than 17th position. In the race he spent more time spinning than making his way through the field.

This is now three races where he has performed well below what should be expected of him. The question is how long are Renault going to persist with these poor performances?

Bahrain and Spain are going to be the two most important races of his career. By then he should have the new parts on his car. If he still can’t make it through the first stage of qualifying, and make an impact on the points, then its difficult to see him staying with the team for much longer.

If Renault did decide to let him go then it’s hard to see who would want to give him a second chance.

Nakajima had a similarly poor race full of errors. Normally these crazy races are the sort he excels in. He has shown in the past at how good he is at keeping his head, but in this race that didn’t happen. Nakajima also made an error and crashed heavily in Melbourne.

Qualifying has been the main weakness in his F1 career so far, and that weakness has remained. He has been nowhere near Rosberg in qualifying so far this season.

Like Piquet, Nakajima has a very important couple of races coming up. However he is part of William’s Toyota engine deal. He brings vital sponsorship to the team so his seat is still pretty safe for now despite a poor start to 2009.

McLaren pick up some useful points, but Kovalainen is their star

This weekend Mclaren looked in better shape. With new parts on including a new diffuser the car looked to be more drivable, and Lewis was the happiest he has been all season. He did very well to get the car to Q3 and eventually qualify ninth.

In the race he came through in sixth after a very eventful race. He approached the race in full attack and produced daring overtaking moves. This included overtaking Kimi Raikkonen numerous times.

On the other hand there were times when Lewis perhaps pushed a little bit too hard, and he went off the road three or four times. This current McLaren isn’t the same car he drove at Silverstone last season. This car is much harder to handle in wet conditions, and Lewis tried to extract as much out of the car as he possibly could and more.

The wet tyres also wore heavily on the Mclaren due to them doing a one stop race.

Kovalainen drove very well and for the first time in a while outshone Lewis Hamilton. He kept his car on the track throughout the race. He kept his head and ended up passing Lewis late on in the race, whilst on one of his off track excursions. Kovalainen then chased down Rubens Barrichello in the closing stages.

Whilst Kovalainen’s drive may not have been as exciting to watch as Lewis’s, he drove very maturely within the limits of the car and was consistent. Along with Vettel he was one of the only drivers not to go off the track, and he took full advantage of that. If you took the Red Bull drivers out of the equation Heikki would have been my star of the race.

Hats off to Buemi

Sebastien Buemi proved his doubters wrong again. In Sepang he had a difficult weekend when he started at the back of the grid. Here he fought back with a vengeance.

In qualifying he managed to sneak into Q3 with a great lap. In the race the tough conditions didn’t phase him and he took no prisoners. Just like in Melbourne he was battling with Ferraris.

The only error was touching the back of Vettel. He dropped back a bit after this incident but still finished the race with a championship point. Impressively this was his second points finish in his first three F1 outings.

At the moment the decision to put him in the car has proved to be a shrewed move, as opposed to a crazy move as deemed by many (including myself).

He is also putting his more experienced team mate into the shade. In China Bourdais wasn’t even able to get past the first part of qualifying.

Adrian Sutil suffers Deja-Vu

Adrian Sutil’s best drives in F1 have all come in wet conditions. This was another one of those races. During the safety car period he came into the pits and brimmed his car with fuel. This strategy worked very well and he fought his way through the field.

In the last part of the race he had got himself up into sixth place. He was fighting tooth and nail with both Mclarens, Glock, Heidfeld and Buemi.

Sadly like in Monaco there wasn’t to be a happy ending. He got caught out in the river heading down to turn six and hit the barriers. Race over.

If Adrian Sutil had got those three points Force India would have gone above Ferrari in the Constructors Championship!

Despite no points it proved again that Sutil does have talent, and he used this opportunity to remind the paddock of that.

Expected title contenders are not in the hunt

The amazing thing about this season so far is that we have title contenders that we never expected. It’s as if the grid has turned back to front almost. The new order we are seeing emerge in F1 is fascinating and great to see. It’s great to see different people at the front of the grid.

Here is a list of the five drivers who most people, would have probably expected to be contenders, before the main preseason tests started.

Lewis Hamilton

Fernando Alonso

Kimi Raikkonen

Felipe Massa

Robert Kubica

So far in 2009 Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso have been the only drivers of this five, who have actually scored any points at all. The odds on that happening before the season would have been extremely high.

Unless there is a dramatic turnaround it’s looking like none of these names are going to be serious contenders. Of course F1 can change quickly so don’t rule any of them out just yet. If there is going to be a big improvement it needs to come within the next couple of races otherwise it will be too late.

The Spanish GP is going to be vitally important for teams like McLaren, Ferrari, BMW and Renault. This is the traditional race where all the major upgrades arrive. If these teams don’t improve sufficiently at that race, then it’s hard to see them making a giant comeback in the title race.

The key championship contenders at the moment look to be Brawn GP and Red Bull. I think these two teams will battle each other hard throughout the season. Brawn GP have the quickest car at the moment, but Red Bull have some big developments to come including the new diffuser.

Ross Brawn has also promised a big upgrade for his team in Spain. They will not be standing still, and they have a big enough budget to develop the car till the end of the season.

Toyota and Williams have shown bursts of pace this season. I think both teams will win in 2009 but I not sure whether they are consistent enough to join Brawn GP and Red Bull in a championship bid.

Looking ahead to Bahrain

Bahrain will be very different to China. In China it was cool and wet. In Bahrain it’s going to be sunny and very hot. The demands will be completely different.

In the dry Brawn GP definitely still have the quickest car. They will become the team to beat once again unless we get a rare desert rain storm. It will be interesting to see how strongly Red Bull can challenge Brawn GP in dry conditions.

I think Toyota will also be very close challengers. Unlike Brawn and Red Bull, Toyota tested extensively in Bahrain during the winter. This could give them a small advantage.

Ferrari also tested in Bahrain so they should get their first points of the season.

This promises to be another great race but Brawn GP should just edge it and return to winning ways.

The first three races of F1 2009 have been quite spectacularly, and I can’t wait to see what happens in the fourth chapter in Bahrain this weekend.

2009 Chinese Grand Prix: Car Weights Analysis and Race Predictions

Daniel Chalmers — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 08:12:30 -0400

Yet again we witnessed another breathtaking qualifying session. This time though Brawn GP had to settle for P4 and P5, as Red Bull shocked everyone to claim their first pole position. Even more surprising was Alonso’s last lap, which put him onto the front row of the grid.

The weights for tomorrow’s race have been published.

1. Vettel 644.0kg

2. Alonso 637.0kg

3. Webber 646.5kg

4. Barichello 661.0kg

5. Button 659.0kg

6. Trulli 664.5kg

7. Rosberg 650.5kg

8. Raikkonen 673.5kg

9. Hamilton 679.0kg

10. Buemi 673.0kg

11. Heidfeld 679.0kg

12. Kovalainen 697.0kg

13. Massa 690.0kg

14. Glock 652.0kg

15. Nakajima 682.7kg

16. Bourdais 690.0kg

17. Piquet 697.9kg

18. Kubica 659.0kg

19. Sutil 648.0kg

20. Fisichella 679.5kg

Both Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello were a bit disappointed straight after qualifying. However having seen these fuel loads, they may now be much happier about their prospects for tommorrow’s race.

The two Red Bulls and Alonso in the Renault have clearly gone very light in order to get at the front of the grid.

There is also another possibility as to why they have gone light. The super soft tyre will wear very quickly in the race tomorrow. So the teams don’t want to have to spend too long on this tyre.

Therefore I think the front 3 drivers will start the race on the super soft, and get that stint of the race done and over with. I would be surprised if any of these three drivers start on the harder tyre. We will have to wait and see.

Most of the others look as if they will do two long stints on the harder tyre, and then a shorter stint on the super-soft tyre at the end.

Piquet and Bourdais look as if they could be one stopping tomorrow. I am surprised that anyone is thinking of going down that route. I think looking after the super-soft tyre for that many laps will prove extremely difficult, especially here in China.

So when will people be coming for their first stop?

Fernando Alonso is on an extremely short stint. He could be coming in as low as lap 10 or 11. Vettel is next with two more laps of fuel on board. Expect him in on lap 12 or 13. Mark Webber has another couple of laps more fuel on board taking him to around lap 14 or 15.

The Brawn GP cars are significantly heavier. Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello could be stopping as long as 10 laps after Fernando Alonso. Expect Jenson and Rubens to come in after around 20-22 laps. Jenson Button is the lighter of the pair once again. Therefore Rubens did very well to do a quicker lap than Jenson, despite being heavier on fuel.

Kovalainen, Massa, Bourdais and Piquet all have more than 30 laps of fuel in their cars. These will be the last guys to pit.

Certainly at the front these are the most varied fuel loads we have seen so far this season. It will be really interesting to see how this plays out.

Summary of fuel loads at the front

Alonso first to pit

Vettel + 2/3 laps

Webber +4/5 laps

Button + 9/10 laps

Barrichello +10/11 laps

Who is my star of qualifying?

My star of qualifying has to go to Sebastien Buemi. To get the Toro Rosso into the top 10 is a tremendous achievement. The lap he did at the end of Q2 must have been near perfect. This will be a huge boast to him and the team. They have put quite a heavy fuel load into his car. I think he is a contender for a point or two tomorrow. It’s worth noting that his more experienced team mate Bourdais, couldn’t make it past Q1.

Also a mention for pole sitter Sebastien Vettel. The fact that he was light does contribute heavily to his pole position. However he went out there, and delivered a perfect lap under immense pressure. He only gave himself one lap to get pole, which isn’t easy. He also only gave himself one lap in the other two sessions. A great performance!

My race prediction

I think this could be a really exciting race tomorrow. There is also the threat of rain to spice up the action even more.

For victory I can’t see beyond another Brawn GP triumph despite a different looking grid. I think the gap has been closed but over the race distance Brawn GP are still the pacesetters. Brawn GP’s race pace advantage has a lot to do with how well the car looks after its tyres over a long run.

This means that when the top 3 (Vettel, Alonso and Webber) all come in for their pit stops, Button and Barrichello should be able to bang in some scorching laps. Remember how good Button’s in-laps were in Sepang. They should then come out in front of the others. From that point onwards they should be able to dominate the race.

If the top 3 start on the super softs as I suspect they will, they will pull away for the first 3-4 laps. The performance will soon start to drop-off and Brawn GP will start to peg them. The Shanghai circuit is very abrasive, and the super-softs won’t last that long.

The risk the top 3 face is that when they pit early, they will come out in heavy traffic amongst the drivers going longer on fuel. This will only help Brawn GP further.

The only thing that could stop Brawn GP winning again is a similar scenario to Melbourne, where the safety car came into play. This means that the drivers who start the GP on the wrong tyre can suddenly come into play in the closing stages of the race. As there is acres of run-off space in China, it is very hard to see a safety car period occurring. This makes a repeat of this scenario unlikely.

Of course the possibility of rain may also threaten to de-rail their progress. But with Button’s great performance in Sepang in mind, even that may not usurp them.

The most important factor for Brawn GP tomorrow is that they get a clean start and don’t lose positions or a front wing. That would definitely make their life more difficult and the give the Red Bulls a chance.

It will be a close run thing between Barrichello and Button. Barrichello starts ahead of Button with a heavier fuel load, so if he can stay in front of Button early on he has the tactical advantage. This could prove critical.

He has looked strong all weekend, so I think he has a chance of breaking Button’s monopoly within the team so far. He needs to finish ahead tomorrow so that Button doesn’t quickly earn number 1 status within the team. That would be déjà-vu for Rubens after all those years alongside Michael Schumacher at Ferrari.

Elsewhere I think the battle behind the Brawns (persuming all goes to plan and they get ahead) will be very tight between the Red Bulls, Alonso, Trulli and maybe even Hamilton. Lewis looks much happier in the car this weekend. He has showed good race pace and race craft in both races so far. Also he is the highest qualifying KERs driver, so he will feature heavily on the first lap.

So in conclusion it will be a tougher race for the Brawns. Once the strategy plays out though, they ought to end up in front with a 1-2 barring any mishaps.

So here is my top-eight prediction for the race

1. Barrichello

2. Button

3. Trulli

4. Vettel

5. Webber

6. Hamilton

7. Alonso

8. Rosberg

Malaysia GP Preview: Will Brawn GP Dominate Again?

Daniel Chalmers — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:39:13 -0400

The teams and drivers have no time to relax as the F1 circus heads straight to Sepang, for the second round of the F1 2009 world championship.

Sepang has been on the F1 calendar since 1999, and is one of the most modern facilities on the calendar.

Sepang is very different from Melbourne, and it is here that we will really begin to see the true pecking order.

In the past the order has turned on its head in Sepang, 2007 is one of the best examples. In Australia Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen romped to an easy victory. In Malaysia, Mclaren turned the tables on Ferrari and utterly dominated to a 1-2 finish. In 2008 Lewis Hamilton eased to victory in Melbourne. However Ferrari then flourished in Sepang and Mclaren all of a sudden limped home well behind Kimi Raikkonen.

Melbourne is a temporary street circuit, whereas Sepang is a proper racing circuit with completely different tarmac to the public roads in Albert Park.

Sepang also has a wider variety of corners to challenge the teams and drivers. There is a mix of quick and slow corners, and there are also two long straights parallel to each other. Finding the right setup is usually a compromise, which will deliver speed throughout the lap.

One of the biggest features of Sepang is the heat and humidity. This makes the race a real marathon for the drivers. It can reach ridiculously hot temperatures inside the cockpit, and the drivers are wearing their full race suits and protective gear. Drivers lose a significant amount of weight over the course of the grand prix distance.

The drivers do have their water bottle. Unfortunately in this sheer heat the water will become warm like tea very quickly, and be of no aid to the drivers.

The drivers normally arrive in Malaysia as early as possible, to get themselves acclimated to these challenging conditions.

The heat also takes its toll on the machinery. Engines are worked very hard here. We have seen many engine blow-ups throughout the history of the Malaysian GP. Cooling is a major issue. We will see all the teams making alterations and putting as many vents and holes in the car as possible to let the air in to cool the cars down, particularly the engines.

Tyres are another major issue. These slick tyres seem to be very difficult to nurse. They wear extremely easily, particularly the softer tyre compounds. In Melbourne the super soft tyres lost performance very rapidly. In Sepang the two tyre compounds chosen by Bridgestone will be the soft tyre and the hard tyre. Even just looking after the hard tyre will be difficult. The soft tyre will no doubt end up being a nightmare to look after. Bridgestone have already warned the teams and drivers about this.

The ability for the car and driver to look after the tyres is going to be crucial this weekend. With such a hot air temperature, the track temperature will be roasting.

As an added problem Malaysia is well famed for its sudden heavy downpours. That could make the Sepang challenge tougher still.

At such a demanding track the best cars ought to really be able to flex their muscles, more than they did in Melbourne. On the other hand this track will demonstrate the cars that have major weaknesses, again more than in Melbourne.

The most important corners include turn 14 which leads onto the long back straight, and then the hairpin at the bottom of the back straight. This leads onto the equally long pit straight.

You want to get good speed out of both these corners so you achieve a good straight line speed. Time can also be won in the fiddly turns one and two, and a good run out of turn three heading towards turn four.

Sepang is a good track for overtaking. There are three places; you can have a go in the hairpin at the bottom of the back straight. You can also have a go down the pit straight. Throughout the years at Sepang we have seen cars side by side through turns one and two (as well as the odd tangle or two). If you get a good run out of turn two and through turn three, then turn four also presents an opportunity.

The new aero regulations seemed to work very effectively in Melbourne, which is a tricky track to overtake on. We should see even more great wheel to wheel battles here. This should also be the track where we see the true advantage of the KERs system.

Is there anything that could stop Brawn GP this weekend?

There is no doubt that Brawn GP is the form team at the moment. In Melbourne, they showed that their testing pace was real. In fact, they are perhaps even quicker than first anticipated. Jenson Button beat the first non Brawn GP car in qualifying by 0.6 seconds, and on heavier fuel. Fuel corrected Brawn GP were about 0.8-0.9 seconds quicker in qualifying trim alone.

In the race Jenson Button had plenty in hand. I don’t think we saw the true pace of Brawn GP in the race. The team have hinted that there is more to come.

At the moment they are a long way ahead of the pack. Sn such a demanding track as Sepang, Brawn GP ought to be able to extend their advantage. Brawn GP have high levels of down force, and importantly look after their tyres extremely well. This puts the team in a very strong position over the long race stints.

So what could prevent Brawn GP from taking another 1-2 finish?

Reliability will probably be the main concern. Brawn GP started pre-season testing very late so are potentially more vulnerable to the punishing nature of the Sepang track. Engines are the most at risk, but in Mercedes Brawn GP have one of the most reliable engines around. Therefore this might not end up being such an issue to worry about after all.

The other thing Brawn GP has to avoid is complacency. It would be very easy for the team to think they practically have the race in the bag, and for a few silly errors to creep in. However you can be sure Ross Brawn won’t let any of his team slip up, and they will be fully focused on the job.

The other big factor that could de-rail Brawn GP is the possibility of rain. When it rains really anything can happen, and a wet track reduces the advantage that the quickest cars have. The race will then be more down to the drivers, and we will see if F1’s wet weather specialists can join Brawn GP at the front.

However Brawn GP has two great wet weather drivers themselves. Button won his first GP in Hungary 2006 in the wet conditions, and Barrichello is also a wet weather expert. He put a Jordan on pole at a damp Spa in 1994. He took a Stewart to 2^nd place in a soaking Monaco in 1997. His first win like Jenson’s, had some rain in the mix too.

So even if it rains making life harder for Brawn GP, both Button and Barrichello have the necessary experience in those sorts of conditions to excel.

Brawn GP also don’t use the KERs system. On a track with longer straights, KERs is more likely to be an advantage at the start and during the race. What could pose Brawn GP a threat, is if a team like Ferrari (who have KERs) can qualify right behind them. This means that Ferrari could mix in with them down the long run to turn 1, and potentially get ahead. Jenson Button mentioned last weekend that overtaking a car that uses KERs would be quite difficult.

Who is leading the chasing pack?

The pack behind Brawn GP are very closely matched indeed. Only a few tenths at most separate the likes of Red Bull, Ferrari, BMW Sauber, Toyota, Williams, and Renault. It’s extremely difficult to predict.

Red Bull looked pretty impressive in Melbourne. Vettel was Button’s main challenger throughout the race. Over a single lap the car was particularly impressive. Newey’s beautiful machine really does have the pace to match.

Between all of the protests and penalties Toyota also demonstrated that their car was quick, especially in the race when Trulli drove from the back to third place. Williams also showed that their car had the potential to challenge near the front.

BMW Sauber and Ferrari were perhaps the main disappointments. Ferrari had a nightmare weekend in Melbourne. Their car was over 1.0 second off the pace in qualifying. The pace was better in the race but still not good enough. The management of the tyres wasn’t as good as we have come to expect from Ferrari.

I am sure they will be stronger in Malaysia. Ferrari has always gone well around here, and came back strongly here last season. Although it’s very difficult to see them repeating last season’s dominant performance.

BMW Sauber seemed to lack grip all weekend in Melbourne, but almost lucked into a victory challenge, by getting their tyre tactics right due to the timing of the safety car.

This group is so tight that any of them could emerge as Brawn GP’s main challenger. It may well come down to the driver who does the best job, as to which of them gets to the front of this group. Which one of these cars has the best tyre management will also play a vital role in the race.

My prediction is that is it will be Red Bull and Ferrari, who are at the front of this pack this weekend right behind Brawn GP.

If Ferrari can get closer to Brawn GP on the grid, and use their KERs system at the start to good effect, they could give them a good run for their money at least.

Each weekend it could change though, as we see different cars being better suited to different tracks. The development race could also go a long way in re-shifting the order of this tight group of cars.

And what of the others?

Mclaren, Force India and Toro Rosso all showed good pace too. It just shows how tight the F1 grid is at the moment, if every team on the grid can challenge to finish in the points paying positions.

Mclaren did better than many expected, but in Sepang the extent of their current weaknesses will really be shown. It is here that we will find out how far off the pace they really are. It could be a very tough weekend for Hamilton and Kovalainen.

What about the twilight start and rain factor?

The race starts later than usual heading towards the evening. So again light could well be an issue for the drivers as it was in Melbourne. Although it shouldn’t be as big an issue here, as there aren’t big trees closely surrounding the track, leaving dark shadows.

The main change that the alteration of the time slot will have is that rain is more likely. Very often in the evening, after a hot afternoon in Sepang, there is a huge thunderstorm.

This would make it very difficult for the drivers, and affect the visibility. When those dark storm clouds come over, the light changes drastically.

Driving in the wet is also far trickier this season, as the cars have less down force. The drivers will have to work even harder than normal to keep these cars on the track in the wet. Apparently the cars now look spectacular to watch on a wet track.

It really would be the best wet weather drivers who would come out on top. So these include the likes of Button and Barrichello as we saw earlier, and Alonso, Vettel, and Hamilton to name a few. Rain could in fact be Mclaren’s saviour.

If it does get too wet though expect the safety car to come out or even a red flag. If it rains as badly as it can do here, then it would be dangerous to let the race continue. That would cause an issue, as delays mean it could start to get dark. That is the risk that comes with starting the race later, for the benefit of the European TV audience.

Another thing to look out for this weekend is the time differential between the wet tyres (which are the same as last season’s) and the dry slick tyres is larger. The slicks are two seconds quicker than last season’s dry grooved tyres. This means that as the track dries out there is a bigger award for switching to dry tyres at the right time. On the other side of the coin more time will be lost if you make the switch at the wrong time.

This could play a massive part in who wins the race, if we get a drying out track at some point. After it rains here, the track dries very quickly due to the heat, so it’s a realistic possibility.

My race prediction

If the race stays dry than I can’t see beyond another victory for Brawn GP. However I do fancy a stronger challenge from one of the chasing pack. I think the strongest challenge will come from a Ferrari driver.

If it rains on the other hand, then it really could go a number of ways.

So here is my top 3 race order.

1. Button

2. Raikkonen

3. Barrichello

It should be another thrilling, and memorable weekend of F1 action.

To read about why Brawn GP have been successful click on the link below.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/148647-why-brawn-gps-success-isnt-a-surprise

Why Brawn GP's Success Isn't a Surprise

Daniel Chalmers — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 08:42:03 -0400

Leaving Australia there was no doubt who the weekend belonged to. Brawn GP confirmed that their winter test pace was real by dominating qualifying, and rounding it off with a 1-2 finish in the Grand Prix itself.

The scary thing is that Jenson didn’t even need to push 100 percent. The safety car period, and a fumbled second pit stop made it look closer than it actually was in reality. He had far more pace up his sleeve had he needed it

It will certainly go down as one of the greatest stories in F1 history. There was a real “feel good“ factor about this result just like there was in Monza in 2008, when Vettel won in the rain for Toro Rosso.

Many people in the F1 paddock have been left stunned at the pace of Brawn GP. However when we take an in-depth look at the team should we really be that surprised? Should we have perhaps have seen it coming instead?

Why have Brawn GP done so well?

There are a whole host of reasons as to why Brawn GP are so strong.

The main reason that stands out is the amount of time that has been spent working on this car. As soon as Ross Brawn came into the team (in November 2007) he decided that the 2008 car was slow. It had so many problems, that there was no point in trying to improve it. It was going to be virtually impossible to close the huge gap on Ferrari and Mclaren with this car.

With the unique opportunity that the huge 2009 regulation changes presented, Ross Brawn decided to waste no time whatsoever. The 2009 rules were like starting from a fresh piece paper. With the 2009 regulations the teams were starting again at the same level again. Think of it as pressing the reset button.

Brawn GP invested far more time on the 2009 car than any other team. They had at least a 6 month head start on all the other teams. Reports suggested that the team had up to 4 wind tunnels working overtime throughout 2008 just on the 2009 car.

With all this time that the team has had, has allowed them to put a lot of thought into this car. Just looking at the car, you can tell that it has been a long time in the making. You can see the sheer detail everywhere on the car. The front wing has lots of little details on it and the sidepods are beautifully sculpted.

The fresh 2009 rules ment there were many different development routes, which could have been taken. Ross Brawn, and his team of engineers have clearly gone down the right route. They have adapted to the new aerodynamic rules brilliantly, and have just done a better job than all the other teams.

Of course there is that controversial “double decker diffuser” that has come under scrutiny from the other teams. It’s extremely ingenious and well designed. It gives the car about 0.5 seconds worth of performance.

The teams that are complaining about this diffuser, are basically frustrated that they haven’t come up with the idea themselves. Brawn GP have been very innovative, and it has paid big dividends.

Along with Toyota and Williams (who also have a similarly designed diffuser) Brawn GP managed to find a loophole in the regulations and made the most of it superbly. It’s very unlikely that the protesting teams will win their battle on April 14th. Therefore the other teams are looking as if; they are going to have to make the change themselves, which will be mighty difficult for them.

Brawn GP also decided against using the KERs system. This has given the team more freedom in how they distribute the weight around the car. It was something less to worry about, and have to work around.

Clearly the car is working very well without it. However if the other teams start to make more use of the system, and gain more of an advantage from it, it could cause a problem for Brawn GP. However the team could run a version of the Mercedes KERs system later on in the season if they want to.

The budget that Brawn GP is working on is another significant factor. When Ross Brawn bought the team he was given 100 million pounds by Honda to keep the team alive for the 2009 season.

100 million pounds is the amount that Honda would have had to fork out, in order to close down the factory, and make all the staff (over 700 of them) redundant. This would obviously have made Honda look very bad, so decided that giving the same sum to Ross to keep the team alive was better for their reputation.

Brawn GP also received an advanced commercial payment from FOM boss Bernie Ecclestone. That makes a total of 140 million pounds, which for one season is a decent and workable budget. In 2007 the top spending teams spent in the region of 200 million pounds just to give a comparison.

Brawn GP are looking to agree a long term deal with Virgin to become a long-term sponsor. This could add even more funds to what is already a useful budget.

The team’s factory in Brackley boasts some of the finest facilities in F1. Their wind tunnels for example are state of the art, and up there with the best in F1.

During the winter whilst the media and fans alike speculated over the team’s future, Honda still gave the team money and support. Therefore they were able to carry on full pace with developing the car throughout this time, even in the knowledge they might never race the car. For all the workers to keep on working under those circumstances knowing their jobs were on the line is awe inspiring.

In Mercedes, Brawn GP have acquired one of the best, if not the best engine in F1. The Honda engine in comparison was weak and lacked power in recent seasons. Therefore having the Mercedes engine has been a substantial improvement on the power front.

The only downside was that the car had to be changed slightly, in order to accommodate it. However Ross Brawn and his team dealt with that with brilliant ease, and in super quick time which was deeply impressive. Clearly that necessary change didn’t slow the car down.

And of course the other main reason why the car is so quick is the man of the moment, Ross Brawn himself. After such glittering stints with Benetton and Ferrari, Brawn is considered to be one of the most talented men in the paddock. He has a great working knowledge of F1 cars, and is an exceptional team leader.

Thanks to his time with two top teams, he has acquired a huge amount of experience to draw back on. He knows exactly what it takes to win the championships.

The problem with the Honda team before Ross Brawn’s arrival was that individually everyone was doing a great job. However collectively as a team they weren’t effective. There was no leader making the important decisions.

There was a lack of direction. The factory overall was a confused environment. When everything came together at the end, it was a complete misguided mess.

Ross Brawn has changed that. He is now the one at the top calling all the shots, and he links all the departments together. He oversees the whole operation. All the talented individuals in the team now have direction, and know what they are doing.

Ross Brawn is now utilising the potential, and enormous talent this team has always had. His trackside operation is very strong too. He helps keep everyone calm and focused during the race weekend. This was definitely an important factor in Melbourne.

The team is now structured far better, and there are better systems in place within the team. It’s far more professional than it had been. Now there is a great end product coming out of the team. The money is being spent wisely and put into all the right places.

Ross Brawn is a very hard and strict person he needs to be. He pushes those around him very hard, but also keeps spirits high, and ensures that the factory has a great family atmosphere. This was a key strength at Ferrari had whilst he was there.

Everyone in the team knows how talented Ross Brawn is. They are all fully aware of his hugely successful career in F1, so are therefore able trust him, and are inspired by him.

Another positive element about Brawn GP is that fact that Ross Brawn is a hands-on boss. He isn’t like other team bosses who are spending most of their hours in their offices just doing paperwork. Ross Brawn is on the factory floor and working, and guiding all of engineers. He is the kind of team boss F1 used have all the way back in the seventies.

Nick Fry who is now the CEO of the team is now the man doing much of that paperwork, and dealing purely on the commercial side of the Brawn GP team. This is the sort of stuff that Ross Brawn’s talent would be wasted in doing. Whilst Nick Fry does all that Ross Brawn is with his team building and preparing the car.

I think this hierarchy at the top of Brawn GP works extremely well for them. All F1 teams should go down this route.

Yet another crucial factor is that it is Ross’s team. Therefore every single decision is his. The big issue when the team was owned by Honda was that there was too much control by the Japanese board.

They were interfering too much with the running of the team. They were just putting big money into the team, and hoping it would all work out. They weren’t there that it took more than huge splashes of cash to succeed in F1.

Throughout their time owning the team they made many bad management calls, which affected the team’s progress. One of them was sacking Geoff Willis, who was responsible for the quick and nimble 2004 challenger, and the 2006 car. As soon as he was sacked the team lost all the gains they had made, and built the catastrophic 2007 car.

Despite the five months of turmoil Honda’s exit caused the team, Brawn GP are much better off without them. Ross Brawn is free to run the team his way without his decisions being overruled or questioned.

Those five months have turned out to be a great character building test for the team, and they are now working with more spirit and determination than ever before. They are now an extremely happy and positive workforce. It’s a shame that over 250 jobs will have to be redundant. However that is a face across other F1 teams, not just Brawn GP.

Another great decision Ross Brawn made, was on his driver line-up. He could easily have hired Bruno Senna, and received a useful amount of sponsorship money as a result. However he decided that having an experienced driver in Rubens Barrichello was the right way to go. He knows all the tracks and he has the experience in race winning cars. He knows the game very well, having recently become the most experienced driver in F1 history

He is a safe pair of hands, and still very fast. Bruno Senna would have needed time to find his feet in F1. He would have needed time to get used to the car and learn all the tracks.

The team would have had to work extremely in order to extract the best from him. Rubens can also push Jenson very hard, which is very beneficial. All the extra media attention that would have come with the Senna name may have caused too big a distraction during a tough time for the team.

Can Brawn GP continue their success and mount a championship challenge?

Brawn GP have to be considered the favourites to land the title. At the moment their car is a long way ahead of everyone else’s. Their car is particularly good over the long runs as it looks after the slick tyres very efficiently. The car has very high levels of grip and downforce, and handles better than all the other cars. In Sepang the car should work even better than it did in Melbourne. Its here where will see how far ahead of the others they really are.

And as the team have a very useful budget, and state of the art facilities, there is no reason why they should lose out in the development race.

They are not the team with the most money, but Ross Brawn is very efficient operator, so that isn’t a big issue. Renault won their 2005 and 2006 championships using a far smaller budget than the likes of Mclaren and Ferrari at that time. Talent can make up for not having the biggest budget

However if Virgin decide to pour a substantial amount of money into the team, then that would certainly be a very useful bonus. Brawn GP could attract more sponsors in the near future too. At the moment sponsoring Brawn GP is a very good business proposition, even in this tough economic climate.

Brawn GP are at the front therefore the car is getting a huge amount of TV air time. They are also the team being featured most in the press at the moment due to their fantastic acheivement. There is no doubt that Richard Branson’s decision to sponsor the team is very clever, and timed to perfection.

Brawn GP are already well on their way with their big upgrade for the Spanish GP in May. There is no reason why they can’t stay in front all season long.

Eventually the other teams will create their own versions of the “double decker” diffuser, and will catch up. Meanwhile whilst Brawn GP are ahead they need to win as many races as they can, and hope to open a gap at the top of the championship table. Something which could work in the team’s favour is the close group featuring four or five teams right behind.

No team has yet stood out as the clear main challenger to the Brawn GP team. If these teams take it in turns to be Brawn GP’s closest challengers, then this could help them build up the points margin.

They have two drivers who are perfectly capable of delivering the title. Barrichello has the experience of driving a front running a car, and knows how to win races. Button is also very much at home in a fast car.

Whenever he has been given a quick car (the whole of 2004 and the second half of 2006) he has flown. His driving style is extremely smooth, which could be a huge bonus as on many tracks the slick tyres will need to be nursed, to get the most out of them.

A worse case scenario would be the double decker diffuser being banned at the court of appeal. But as mentioned earlier on, that is an unlikely outcome. The FIA and then the race stewards deemed it legal, so the protesting teams will find it hard to win their case.

Even if Brawn GP lost out in the appeal losing 0.5 seconds of performance may not even be enough to strip from of their place at the front of the grid, although it would make life harder admittedly

You can be sure though that Ross Brawn has a back-up plan just in case Brawn GP were to lose out on April 14. That’s the kind of guy he is.

The long term future of Brawn GP

This year the team are fine. They have a perfectly healthy budget to work with. Next season is an entirely different matter though. However if the team can get Richard Branson to invest heavily in them, and they can get a few more sponsors then the team will be in a reasonable position.

Remember that they could get a decent amount of prize money too, and the yearly dose of commercial money from Bernie Ecclestone.

Another crucial factor is the new 30 million pound budget cap for next season. No doubt Brawn GP will be one of the teams to sign up for this. I am sure a talented team being led by Ross Brawn could operate extremely well within a budget cap, and continue to be competitive in the years to come.

In conclusion when you study the Brawn GP team, it starts to become more and more apparent why the team is looking so strong at the moment. When you look at all the factors behind their success, it becomes less of a surprise than it might have seemed at first. Brawn GP deserves an enormous amount of credit.

A championship challenge is definitely on!

Ten Things We Learned in This Weekend's Aussie GP

Daniel Chalmers — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 09:13:35 -0400

This weekend was one of the most highly anticipated opening races in F1 history. With so many rule changes and the old pecking order being ripped up, there were so many questions coming into this race.

So what have we learnt from the Round 1 of the F1 season?

Brawn GP’s Pace is Real

Throughout winter testing, many held the view that Brawn GP were running underweight, and refused to believe how quick the car was.

This weekend confirmed that this is a very quick car, and Brawn GP have to be considered serious contenders for the 2009 World Championship.

Their one lap pace was particularly impressive. Jenson Button’s pole position lap was 0.6 quicker than the first non-Brawn GP car, and Button was on a fairly heavy fuel load.

In the race, I don’t think Brawn GP showed their true pace. The safety car made the race closer, and gave the advantage to the cars that started on the unfavourable super soft tyre. Also a fumbled second pit stop lost Jenson at least four or five seconds.

Despite these difficult moments, Button was calm and had the race perfectly under control. He dealt with the last stint on the super soft tyres with superb ease. I think he could have gone quicker if he needed to.

Rubens Barrichello also did very well to fight back to 2nd after a very poor getaway.

This 1-2 result for Brawn GP is an absolute fairytale, and shows that anything is possible when you put your mind to it.

It’s amazing that a team all but dead a few months ago, has come back to deliver this incredible result.

I think Brawn GP will be a long way ahead for the next few races.

McLaren’s Woes are Also Real

Mclaren’s poor pace over winter testing was another story, which fans were very sceptical about. Some suggested they were sandbagging and playing games. As a Mclaren fan, I was hoping the people who held these views would be proved right.

As it turned out in Australia, Mclaren has a lot of work to do if they want to be challenging for race victories later this season.

At the moment, the Mclaren is around 1.5 seconds off the pace of the Brawn GP cars. That is a huge chunk of time to make up, even for a team with the huge resources and brains of Mclaren.

Looking at the onboard shots of the Mclaren, it didn’t seem like too bad a car to drive. It seemed quite well balanced. The handling wasn’t as dreadful as a lot of other cars I have witnessed in F1. The drivers were able to hit the apexes on each corner.

The problem is that the car is lacking the downforce and speed. The car isn’t nailed to the track.

In a way, the fact that the car doesn’t handle too badly is a nightmare situation. If the car handles badly then it’s something the team can quickly rectify, and immediately gain a healthy chunk of time by doing so.

However, the handling isn’t the car’s biggest issue. The car is just slow and lacking downforce. It won’t be easy for Mclaren to find the time they need to gain on the frontrunners.

Some insiders at Mclaren say they have a huge upgrade planned for Spain (the 5th Round of the season), and that the car will fly there. I have my doubts whether that will happen. Let’s wait and see.

Hamilton Has Taken to the Challenge of Having a Slow Car Brilliantly

Everyone wondered how Lewis Hamilton would fare as soon as he was given a slow car. Throughout his racing career, even before Formula 1, he has been used to driving the best cars.

All great drivers in F1 history have pulled off great results in slow cars. We have all been eagerly waiting how Lewis would fare this weekend.

Overall he has been very positive weekend. He hasn’t walked around the paddock with his head down and looking miserable. He has done everything he can to encourage his team and kept their spirits up. He hasn’t constantly complained about his team as other drivers may have done. He has just jumped into the car and did the best he possibly could.

To finish third in the race coming from the back of the grid is an astonishing result. He pulled off a few great overtaking moves on cars faster than his (Piquet and Rosberg for example). He pushed hard every single lap and drove with great spirit.

Of course, the fact that Melbourne was a race of attrition did help him out, too. However, Lewis kept his head whilst others lost theirs. Most of the DNFs in the race were due to driver error rather than reliability.

Lewis maximised the situation in the race, and got the best result he could possibly have hoped for. Those six points will be very useful indeed. In my eyes, he drove like a champion in this race.

Ferrari Have Kept Their Weaknesses

This was a very bad weekend for Ferrari. Just like last season Ferrari scored nil points in Australia. Their biggest issue was in qualifying.

Despite the change in regulations, it seems that Ferrari still have trouble warming their tyres up for a single flying lap. In cooler conditions, as we had in Australia, this issue is even worse.

When you take fuel loads into account, Ferrari were more than 1.0 second off Brawn GP in qualifying.

In race trim their pace was better, but their ability to get tactical decisions wrong remained. Starting on the super-soft tyres turned out to be the wrong move, as was the decision to put Felipe Massa on a three stop strategy.

In the end, the safety car almost made that wrong tyre call the right one.

Kimi Raikkonen was suddenly on the right tyre when others had to use the super-soft. There was a chance that he could have charged to second, but he made a mistake and brushed the wall, ending his chances. Kimi Raikkonen’s attempt to impress backfired on him.

Massa was driving a very solid race, and he could have had a strong result in the end, but a reliabily issue ended his race.

In conclusion, Ferrari showed off all their biggest weaknesses from last season, all in the first race of the 2009 season.

I am sure they will bounce back in Sepang. The heat may well suit them much better. But it’s hard to see them repeating their dominance in last season’s race. They don’t have the quickest car by any stretch of the imagination at the moment.

There Seemed to be a Noticeable Improvement in the Amount of Overtaking

The racing was definitely much better in Melbourne than in recent seasons. There was far more wheel-to-wheel action and attempts at overtaking.

The two best moves of the race in my eyes were Nico Rosberg’s move on Kimi Raikkonen down into turn one. Turn one is a very difficult place to pass. Rosberg was extremely brave there.

Timo Glock’s daring move on Fernando Alonso around the outside of turn four was also excellent. To go around the outside of Fernando Alonso is an extremely brave thing to do.

These two examples are the kind of moves that we haven’t seen enough of in the past four or five years. Melbourne isn’t the best track for overtaking, which bodes well for Malaysia and Bahrain, which are two of the best overtaking tracks in F1.

The cars also seem to be able to follow each other closely and far more comfortably than before. Thanks to less turbulent air behind the cars there appeared to be less field spread, too. In the past, the field has spread extremely quickly. So this is an improvement, too.

However the Spanish and Hungarian GPs will be the biggest test in whether the new rules have worked or not.

I am sure that KERs, and the new tyre rules will also have had their part to play in more overtaking.

KERs Did Seem to Be an Advantage in the Race

In qualifying it didn’t seem that KERs gave much of an advantage at all. Out of the seven KERs cars, only two made it to Q3 (the two Ferraris). In the end in Q3, the Ferraris were more than 1.0 second off the pace.

In the race, it did prove quite useful. The two Ferraris got a brilliant start down into turn one and got straight into the action.

It also helped to get a slipstream on the cars that weren’t using the KERs system. It acted as a good form of defence, too, when a quicker car was behind.

Overall pace wise KERs wasn’t a big advantage in Melbourne. However, in Sepang and Bahrain, which both feature long straights, KERs could well be a better advantage pace wise.

It will be very interesting to see how the KER's teams fare at those two tracks. It’s doubtful that it will be enough to worry Brawn GP.

Buemi Proved He Wasn’t Such a Bad Choice for Toro Rosso After All

Many questioned Toro Rosso’s decision to hire Sebastien Buemi. Many thought that Red Bull were just desperate to run someone from their young driver programme, which apart from Vettel hasn’t delivered much successful talent. Many shared the view that a driver, who didn’t feature heavily in the GP2 title battle, should never have been promoted to F1.

I have been one of those people who had doubts over Buemi. I am happy to say that he proved many people wrong this weekend. He had a difficult day on Friday and was running about 2.0 seconds off the pace.

On Saturday, however, he out-qualified teammate Sebastien Bourdais by more than 0.5 seconds, which was very impressive.

In the race he was very calm. He was quick and made no mistakes. He drove a perfect race. He comfortably kept a much quicker Nico Rosberg behind him for a large number of laps. He even overtook a Ferrari.

To get a points finish on his debut in his car, which has had its teething problems so far, was extremely commendable.

Piquet Jnr Did Nothing to Show That He Deserves a Second Season in F1

Piquet Jnr had a very poor weekend. He failed to make it past Q1 just like he did on numerous occasions in 2008.

In the race he did show that had some solid pace, however, he ruined that with a silly mistake after the safety car came in. Whilst going wheel to wheel with Rosberg, he got carried away when he should have been careful (as the tyres were very cold), and got stuck in the gravel trap.

Piquet Jnr is under immense pressure in Sepang. If he delivers a similar performance, there is no doubt his place in the team will be under close scrutiny.

I don’t think race pace is the issue anymore. That seems okay now. The main problem is qualifying. He just doesn’t seem to get it together over one lap. It’s no good having good race pace if you start the race near the back of the grid.

The Stewards are Still Clueless

The stewards caused many moments of controversy in 2008, and unfortunately it doesn’t look like that situation will change in 2009. Their key race involvement was the Vettel/Kubica incident.

The pair collided when Kubica was going for P2 at turn three. Having watched the incident many times myself it looks that Kubica is more at fault. He got himself ahead of Vettel, but he gave him absolutely no room.

Vettel had nowhere else to go other than to hit Kubica. Vettel himself was perhaps a little bit too optimistic. He was perhaps better off just conceding the position.

At the end of the day, these were two young chargers who simply didn’t want to concede their position.

The 10 place drop penalty on Vettel was very harsh. He has already suffered enough punishment by losing the six points in this race. I don’t think he deserves more punishment in Malaysia, especially as in my view of the incident Kubica was more at fault.

I don’t think the stewards need to dish out 10 place penalties every time two cars collide. These drivers are racing each other hard, and sometimes they collide.

That’s racing!

Red Bull is the Top Non-Questionable Diffuser Car

Over the winter, Red Bull started testing well but then didn’t look spectacular in the Catalunya test. As it turns out, they did much of their testing on a high fuel load and weren’t doing single lap runs on low fuel.

Red Bull brought the car to Melbourne and it did extremely well. Vettel qualified third, and in the race he kept in touch with Jenson Button. He didn’t let Jenson drive into another postcode. His race pace was strong and consistent.

Such a shame he got involved in that incident with Kubica. A podium place for him and Red Bull would have been such a fantastic result.

If the diffusers on Brawn GP, Toyota, and Williams were to get banned, then Red Bull would be right there challenging for wins.

As it stands they are not that far off the ultimate pace at all. Excluding Brawn GP, Red Bull were the team that impressed me most in Melbourne.

Overall it has been an absolutely brilliant first weekend of the season. F1 2009 is looking in great shape at the moment.

Roll on Malaysia this weekend!

Car Weights Declared and My Race Prediction

Daniel Chalmers — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 09:34:58 -0400

Pos. Driver Car weight

1. Jenson Button           664.5kg
2. Rubens Barrichello      666.5kg
3. Sebastien Vettel        657kg
4. Robert Kubica           650kg
5. Nico Rosberg            657kg
6. Felipe Massa            654kg
7. Kimi Raikkonen          655.5kg
8. Mark Webber             662kg
9. Nick Heidfeld           691.5kg
10. Fernando Alonso         680.7kg
11. Kazuki Nakajima         685.3kg
12. Heikki Kovalainen       690.6kg
13. Sebastien Buemi         675.5kg
14. Nelson Piquet           694.1kg
15. Giancarlo Fisichella    689kg
16. Adrian Sutil            684.5kg
17. Sebastien Bourdais      662.5kg
18. Lewis Hamilton          655kg
19. Jarno Trulli            660kg
20. Timo Glock              670kg

Each car's minimum weight including the driver is 605kg, so anything over that is fuel load. (That includes the cars with the KERs system)

Each lap around Albert Park uses around 2.5kg of fuel.

Therefore we can see that Brawn GP are heavier than the cars behind them. Their qualifying pace is real. They didn’t go on a lighter fuel load. As you can see Button has 2.0kg less fuel than Barrichello.

Button was 3 tenths faster than Barrichello, with one lap less of fuel on board. Fuel corrected Button was still the quicker Brawn driver today. Both Brawn GP cars should be able to run for at least 20 laps in the race. I would estimate they will come in about laps 21 and 22.

Kubica is the lightest on the grid, so therefore his lap wasn't as impressive as we might have first thought. He could be stopping on as low as lap 15. So that’s at least 5 or 6 laps before the Brawn GP drivers come in to pit.

Vettel and Rosberg are between Kubica and Brawn GP in terms of fuel load. I reckon they will probably come in around lap 18/19. So they will come in around three or four laps before the Brawn GPs.

We can see that Ferrari may feel the need to be a bit worried about their pace. They were around 0.8 seconds off the pace of Button, and with a lighter fuel load than Vettel and Rosberg. So Ferrari were over a 1.0 second off the ultimate pace today, when you take fuel loads into account. That is extremely bad news for them.

I am sure they will be more competitive when it comes to the race, but they will struggle if they continue to be that poor in qualifying.

The Mclaren drivers are doing different strategies. Hamilton looks like he is just going to go for it, and is going light and aggressive. Kovalainen on the other hand looks much heavier, so could well be going for a one stop race.

It needs to be remembered that any safety car period will change the laps drivers come in on, as fuel can be saved during a safety car period.

Predictions for the race

Brawn GP are a long way ahead. They were comfortably quickest today, with heavier fuel onboard. Their long run pace in testing was even stronger than their one lap pace. So as long as they get through turn one unscathed, and don’t have any reliability gremlins, then they should have the race well under control.

The race is a battle between Button and Barrichello. It will be quite close. Barrichello’s long runs have been very competitive throughout winter testing, and slightly ahead of Button. Therefore he will give Button a big challenge.

Button is race favourite as he is the man on pole. Rubens does have one more lap of fuel on board though. He would need to be very close to Button to pass in the pits though, with just 1 lap extra. He does at least have the tactical advantage. He can opt to run longer in his second stint than Jenson if he wants, or do a short stint to get ahead of him at the second stop.

I think it will be a decent race between them, but Button should hold on for the victory.

Behind could be an extremely good scrap for the podium between Kubica, Vettel, Rosberg, the two Ferraris and Webber. It will come down to who has the best start, and who can look after their slick tyres best over the long stints.

I think for third place I will be placing my bet on Rosberg, and that would be a fantastic result for Williams.

Mclaren will have an uphill afternoon, and I can’t see them making that much progress unless we get a race of attrition, which is always a possibility in Melbourne. Maybe one point at the very best.

Toyota could have got a great result tomorrow, but a flexi-wing infringement has put both cars at the back of the grid. The best they can hope for is 1 or 2 points.

So my top five prediction for tomorrow:

1. Button

2. Barrichello

3. Rosberg

4. Raikkonen

5. Vettel

And what about the number of front wings that are left at turn one?

I think I will take a stab in the dark and go for three. I am sure the drivers will be fully aware that the new front wings are more vulnerable than last season. Therefore they won't take any stupid risks into turn one.

We could lose more front wings in failed overtaking moves during the race. The braking zones are extremely bumpy, so making a move stick won't be easy.

F1 2009 Australia GP Practice Times and Analysis

Daniel Chalmers — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 08:27:45 -0400

Free practice session one

1. ROSBERG Williams 1m26.687s

2. NAKAJIMA Williams 1m26.736s

3. RAIKKONEN Ferrari 1m26.750s

4. BARRICHELLO Brawn 1m27.226s

5. KOVALAINEN McLaren 1m27.453s

6. BUTTON Brawn 1m27.467s

7. MASSA Ferrari 1m27.642s

8. GLOCK Toyota 1m27.710s

9. SUTIL Force India 1m27.993s

10. ALONSO Renault 1m28.123s

11. HEIDFELD BMW 1m28.137s

12. TRULLI Toyota 1m28.142s

13. KUBICA BMW 1m28.511s

14. FISICHELLA Force India 1m28.603s

15. BUEMI Toro Rosso 1m28.785s

16. HAMILTON McLaren 1m29.042s

17. WEBBER Red Bull 1m29.081s

18. PIQUET Renault 1m29.461s

19. BOURDAIS Toro Rosso 1m29.499s

20. VETTEL Red Bull 1m32.784s

Free practice session two

1. ROSBERG Williams 1m26.053s

2. BARRICHELLO Brawn 1m26.157s

3. TRULLI Toyota 1m26.350s

4. WEBBER Red Bull 1m26.370s

5. BUTTON Brawn 1m26.374s

6. GLOCK Toyota 1m26.443s

7. NAKAJIMA Williams 1m26.560s

8. VETTEL Red Bull 1m26.740s

9. SUTIL Force India 1m27.040s

10. MASSA Ferrari 1m27.064s

11. RAIKKONEN Ferrari 1m27.204s

12. ALONSO Renault 1m27.232s

13. FISICHELLA Force India 1m27.282s

14. HEIDFELD BMW 1m27.317s

15. KUBICA BMW 1m27.398s

16. BOURDAIS Toro Rosso 1m27.479s

17. KOVALAINEN McLaren 1m27.802s

18. HAMILTON McLaren 1m27.813s

19. PIQUET Renault 1m27.828s

20. BUEMI Toro Rosso 1m28.076s

It's been a very interesting day in Melbourne. It was great to see all the cars in anger on the track for the first time. First impressions are that the new cars look great. You get used to them very quickly. I even started to get used to the sight of the Renault after a while.

Who’s hot and who’s not?

In terms of who impressed today, there is no doubt that the three teams with question marks over their diffuser, (Williams, Brawn GP and Toyota) all look in extremely good shape. All three of these teams have performed consistently well throughout the day.

Williams are probably the most pleasant surprise of Friday practise, as Nico Rosberg topped both sessions.

Throughout testing it looked as if they were going to be stuck in the midfield. However on their final day in Jerez they set a very fast time, the fastest time set in Jerez all winter. It looks as if they may have brought that form with them to Melbourne.

Let’s hope they can keep this pace up throughout the weekend.

Brawn GP I don't think have shown their true colours yet. I think they can go faster, and they are definitely still the team to beat this weekend.

It's very hard to assess where Ferrari are at the moment. When I was watching final practice the car looked difficult to keep under control, and towards the end of the long runs both Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen had a few wild moments.

I don't think they will be too far off the pace, but they are not the pacesetters here. That is for sure.

Force India looked pretty good, with Sutil managing ninth fastest in the afternoon session. I think they have a great chance of both cars making it to Q2, and maybe even sneaking one car into Q3.

The Mclaren collaboration is clearly working well for them, and have arrived in Melbourne better prepared than ever before.

The three teams who appear to be struggling at present are BMW Sauber, Mclaren and Toro Rosso. Toro Rosso haven't had that much time yet with their new car, and they have had a few teething problems so far.

They are also waiting for new parts for their car. I think they will struggle for the first two or three races of the season. They may be the team bringing up the rear to begin with.

BMW Sauber were having alot of grip problems. Both drivers were struggling, and couldn't get the car to work for them at all. They were complaining to their engineers on the radio, throughout the two sessions.

They have got work to do before final practice and qualifying. I am sure we will see them do better when it gets down to business, but they will be extremely disappointed so far. They never set the track on fire in winter testing.

Maybe this time they haven’t been sandbagging afterall. It’s too early to draw conclusions yet of course. It’s only been 2 practise sessions so far. Let’s see where they appear in qualifying tomorrow.

Mclaren do look quite poor, as winter testing has suggested. Hamilton couldn't get into the top 15 in either session, and said the car was bottoming out very badly. Both Mclaren drivers face a tough battle just to make it into the second part of qualifying.

I don't think it will be before we head back to Europe, that Mclaren start to make strides forward.

Bigger challenge for the drivers

Another thing was made very clear in practise today is that these cars are much harder to drive for the drivers. These cars have less downforce than last season. Therefore the car has less grip.

The cars are no longer nailed down to the track, like trains on rails, as they have been for the past few seasons. The cars are now far more jittery in the braking zones. Again that is a result of less downforce on the cars.

The cars are moving, and bouncing around much more, even more so on the bumpy parts of the track. You could see the driver’s heads bobbling around the cockpit.

All this has resulted in making the cars more spectacular and exciting to watch. Remember also that the drivers have two extra buttons on their steering wheel with the KERs system and the movable flap.

This adds even more to their workload. F1 2009 is a larger challenge for all the drivers. This is just as it should be.

Cool track temperature and tyre wear issues

Bridgestone have brought the super-soft and medium tyres compounds to the race. Thanks to the main events taking place in the evening (so that it is at a more sociable time for European viewers) the track temperatue is quite cool.

Obviously in the evening the air temperature starts to plummet. In turn this causes the track temperature to become lower as well.

During the second practice session (which started at 4.30 and finished at 6.oopm) there was a big dip in the track temperature throughout. This had a major impact on the lack of grip, that there was on the circuit.

Some teams struggled badly with this, BMW in particularly I feel.

It's possible that Bridgestone brought tyres expecting warmer temperatures, and have been caught out.

Another important point is that the slick tyres are wearing quite badly. This is making the cars harder to drive, as you get towards the end of a long run.

As I mentioned, in the second session we saw the Ferrari drivers struggling a bit and going off the road. Massa went off two times in one lap, towards the end of his stint.

The teams and drivers who can manage their tyres the best will give themselves a great chance on Sunday.

In terms of long runs, and looking after the tyres I think it is Brawn GP who are out in front, with Toyota best of the rest. We will see if it turns out that way on Sunday.

Is the amount of light going to be a problem in the race?

It seems that there is a chance that this may be an issue. The race will be finishing at dusk. Apparently a few drivers have commented that a few of the corners were quite dark, towards the end of the second practice session.

The shadows from the trees were getting bigger, and the sun was also lower in the sky and very bright.

Providing there are no red flags, or extended Safety Car periods there shouldn't be a problem. However it is cutting it very fine indeed.

Advantage for the KERs teams at the start?

That is certainly possible. There should be a noticeable speed differential between the KERs teams and non-KERs teams at the start.

My main worry is that 20 cars heading to head down to the turn one at a variety of different speeds may be a catalyst for incidents. I am sure a few of those bigger front wings may come off at turn one.

As they cover the front wheels, any really close wheel to wheel contact will result in those front wings coming off.

We are yet to see how big an advantage the KERs teams will have at a start. The extra weight that KERs puts onto their car may reduce some of this advantage.

However chances are, they will be considerably quicker off the line than the others. The start of Sunday's race will answer the question once and for all. It could be quite spectacular!

So overall it has been a fantastic day of practice in Melbourne. The first glimpse at F1 2009 has been very interesting, and I think we are in for a very enjoyable race weekend, and season.

I think Brawn GP will end up coming out on top. I think it will be their pace at the end of a long stint that wins it for them. That is why it seems their advantage lies at the moment.

Daniel's 2009 F1 Championship Preview and Final Predictions

Daniel Chalmers — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 14:33:13 -0400

It’s been a long wait, but the start of the 2009 season is finally upon us.

With all the huge regulation changes, and a big shake-up of the established order, 2009 is one of the most anticipated seasons for many years. There have never been so many unanswered questions before the start of a Formula 1 season. It has never been so hard to try and predict who is going to win the championship.

I am going to have a look at some of these questions and big debating points, and give my views on them.

A lot has been said about how the cars look after all the new technical regulations. What have been the main changes, and what is your opinion on the new look?

The main changes are that the front wing has been made lower and wider (the front now covers the tyres). The rear wing has been made taller and narrower. Also all the high bits of aero have also been banned (referred to as winglets). Also barge boards have been banned.

The diffuser has been made smaller and less powerful. And of course there is the re-introduction of slick tyres. There has also been the introduction of KERs, which we will get onto later.

Overall there has been a 50 percent reduction on aero downforce on the cars. Although teams have already gained part of this lost aero downforce back. F1 engineers are extremely clever like that.

There is also a movable flap on the front wing, which the drivers can adjust twice per lap.

Overall I think the cars look much better than they did last season. Without all the upper aero devices, the cars have much cleaner lines. It does take time to get used to the mis-matching front and rear wings, but I think all fans will get used to the cars very quickly.

Surely nobody can deny how stunning the Red Bull and Toro Rossos look? Admittedly the Renault is the ugly duckling of the bunch.

The other thing about these new rule changes, is that there is a much bigger variety of different car designs. Teams have opted to go down different routes. It’s nice to have a different variety of ideas on show.

We will see in Melbourne who exactly has been going down the right development route, and who hasn’t.

Last season if you painted all the cars all white, it would have been hard to tell, which car belonged to which team. This season the same task may be a bit easier (although telling the Toro Ross and Red Bull apart would still be very tough).

To KERs or not to KERs? That is the question

Ferrari, Renault, BMW Sauber and Mclaren look set to start the season with the system installed. Others may install it later on in the season. Brawn GP on the other hand has said that they won’t be using the system at all this season.

The problem with KERs is the extra weight it adds onto the car. This limits how teams can distribute the weight on the car. This is a problem, which Brawn GP won’t face. They will be free to distribute the weight across the car however they want, without the added headache of KERs.

Most of the drivers have been on a diet so that it takes away from the overall weight of the car, whilst they are inside them.

I think teams will use KERs at some tracks, but not at others. On fast tracks, with long straights, the extra straight line speed will become a big advantage. It will help towards lap times, and for overtaking.

At slow twisty tracks like Monaco and Hungary KERs probably won’t be as beneficial so the teams may decide not to use it at these tracks. It will be interesting to see if they do or not. Reliability could be a problem for the teams running KERs in the early part of the season.

We will soon see whether running KERs is an advantage, or whether running without it is an advantage. It could swing either way. Toyota are convinced they have made the right decision, by not starting the season with KERs. We will soon find out who is right. Surely if a team can get to full grips with the technology, and make the most out of it, then it is more likely to give a useful advantage than not.

Having half the grid on KERs, and the other half not is a really fascinating prospect.

These new regulations have been designed to increase the amount of overtaking. Will these new rules achieve that?

I think the answer to the question is yes and no. Clearly there will be more overtaking, but fans need to be realistic on what to expect. F1 isn’t going to suddenly turn in Moto GP or Touring Car racing. If fans tune into the Australian GP expecting that, then they will be very disappointed.

Overtaking will be easier, but it will still be extremely challenging. There will still be a lot of turbulent air when following the cars, and of course the track will still be much dirtier off line. That won’t change. And the streets of Monte-Carlo won’t suddenly get wider.

Last season you needed to be 2.0 seconds faster than the car in front to guarantee a pass. Now that looks set to be reduced to 1.0 second. So that is a 50% improvement which isn’t bad going.

I think on good overtaking tracks like Bahrain and Belgium, we will see a positive difference. However I don’t expect the racing to become much better at tracks like Monaco or Hungary.
The KERs system may well be a great extra aid in overtaking. Drivers will get 2 boasts per lap. If you are up against a car that doesn’t use the system, you will have a great chance of passing them. If both you and your opponent have the system, then the driver in front could utilise the system at the same time to defend.

In terms of overtaking KERs will definitely help at tracks with more than two overtaking places, like Bahrain for example.

Drivers only have two boasts per lap, so they can’t use it to defend at every overtaking chance. They will have to make do without it at some point. Again at Monaco and Hungary where it’s hard to overtake, it probably won’t be that much extra help.

The movable flap could prove to be useful. When you are following another driver through a fast corner you can adjust the flap so that can stick closer to them, and reduce the effect of understeer.

Then you may have a better chance of overtaking them down the straight that follows, because you will have been able to stay closer to them.

The KERs system and the movable flap may prove to be two very useful variables, when it comes to increasing overtaking.

Why have the rules shaken up the pecking order so much?

Over the past few years teams had just been evolving their cars from season to season. In stable regulations it was very hard make huge inroads on the advantage of the front teams. Everyone’s development rate is quite similar, so therefore there wasn’t much movement in the order of the teams.

With these vast rule changes it is like pressing the reset button. Everyone is building a new car from scratch. They are all starting at the same level.

This means that it has become perfectly possible for midfield teams to become front runners, and for front runners to sink into the midfield. From studying all the testing times this winter it looks like exactly that has happened.

Most experts expected the field to spread out, but it seems the opposite may have happened. Why is that and are you surprised?

I think most people based that theory on the last sweeping changes in 1998. Back then the cars became narrower, and we moved from slicks onto grooves. The field spread out in that season.

However this season we have a higher number of well funded teams on the grid. with bigger facilities and resources. The teams on the current grid that you would consider minnows (Toro Rosso and Force India) are extremely strong too. Force India has their collaboration with Mclaren, and Toro Rosso with Red Bull.

Back in 1998, you had a far bigger number of smaller privateer teams, with far lesser budgets, and facilities than many of the teams. Huge regulation changes would have really stretched them to the limit. That year the two biggest teams (Mclaren and Ferrari) surged ahead.

With all this in mind I had a feeling that the time covering the whole grid (2.0 seconds last season) would be maintained. It looks like to could be even closer than that. Maybe as little as 1.5 seconds.

What do you think is the current pecking order?

I would say that there is a front group consisting of Brawn GP, Ferrari, BMW Sauber and Toyota. Out of those four teams I think Brawn GP has the edge as it stands. Over a race distance they are particularly strong.

They may be as much as 0.5 seconds per lap quicker over a race distance. The second strongest team look to be Ferrari, with BMW Sauber and Toyota in very close company.

Then we have a big group consisting of all the other teams. Red Bull and Renault look to be the best of the rest. Williams did post a very fast time in Jerez , so they could be right up there with them too.

The team who are out of form look to be Mclaren. Where they slot into the pecking order is unclear. However even Lewis Hamilton has admitted that the team won’t be able to get points in Melbourne. It looks like at first they will be very lucky to be ahead of Force India and Toro Rosso.

With the grid so close together the development race will be very important. If a team can find a few tenths of a second then, it could jump them a long way up the grid. If could also decide which of the tight bunch at the front edges ahead as the season goes on.

With all the varied designs on car in 2009, different cars will work better at some tracks, but not as well at others. Some designs will work better in some weather conditions, but not as well in others.

Melbourne for example is a far different challenge to Catalunya and Jerez. We could be surprised by the pecking order we see this weekend.

Who do you think will win the Constructors Championship?

As the championship progresses, I think Ferrari and BMW Sauber will become the two teams to beat, and move clear from the rest.

Ferrari will have adapted very well to the new rules, and have two very strong drivers. The same applies to BMW Sauber, and they started focusing more on the 2009 season earlier on in 2008.

They are also a very good team reliably. They are very consistent, and their trackside operation, and tactics are also strong. They have shown that they don’t make many mistakes.

If they can keep those strengths, and build on their pace, then I think they will be the team that wins the Constructors Championship.

BMW may have only looked solid in testing, but they are known to sandbag in testing. I think they will fly right from the start of the season and maintain the pace throughout.
BMW Sauber has set big targets each season since they started in 2006.

They have achieved each one so far. They have done a brilliant job, and done things the way they should. They are a fine example to other manufacturers who want to come in, and achieve success in F1.

Who do you think will win the Drivers Championship?

It’s going to be a very close run thing, and a number of different drivers will win races in 2009. However I am expecting the real Kimi Raikkonen to return, and to edge the title fight.

He had a bad season last season because the Ferrari featured too much understeer, which Kimi hated. On the other hand the new cars will feature a big oversteer tendency, which Kimi will love. The Mclarens, which Kimi used to drive featured oversteer and he used to fly when he was driving for Mclaren.

When Kimi Raikkonen is at his absolute he can be unbelievably fast. I rate him as the most naturally talent drive on the grid.

If he can drive at his best in 2009, he won’t be easy to keep up with. Many say that Kimi isn’t motivated. I think he is very motivated, but that he just never shows it. On the inside he was very hungry, and eager to prove the critics wrong.

Who will be the surprise of the season?

Obviously Brawn GP are going to be the biggest surprise of the season. Their pace in testing was genuine. They will definitely win some races this season. Although I don’t think they will be able to maintain a season long title challenge, as I think the likes of Ferrari, and BMW Sauber will eventually come to the fore.

A few months ago, many people wondered whether this team would exist at all 2009. For the team to go onto the grid, and win races in 2009 would be something quite staggering.

I wonder if Honda are currently kicking themselves to selling the team when it looked like they may have finally built a fast car. Investing so much time (Honda started focusing on 2009 back in 2007) and money on the new car looks like it will pay off.

I also think Bourdais will surprise in the Toro Rosso. Vettel got all the headlines in 2009, but in the final third of the season Bourdais was very quick. He was unlucky not to get a few very big results, particularly in Spa, Monza, and Fuji.

He suffered bad luck on all three of those occasions. Bourdais never liked last year’s Toro Rosso, but he was very quick when he adapted to it.

These new F1 cars will be more similar to what he experienced in Champcar i.e. slick tyres, more emphasis on mechanical grip. I think he will thrive this season.

I don’t think many fans will be expecting much from Bourdais in 2009. I think he will surprise everyone. He is an outside bet for a few podiums I think.

Who will be the disappointment of the season?

Mclaren will be the ultimate disappointment of the season. They don’t look like they have got it together. They haven’t done as good a job at adapting to the new regulations, as some of the other teams have.

They pushed very hard at the end of last season to win the championship. Many other teams had already started focusing on the new 2009 rules very early on. It may be that Mclaren were too complacent in the development of the car.

Another possibility is that they have focused too much on making the car suit Lewis Hamilton’s style, and have caught themselves out.

It does look as if Mclaren have found the routes of their problems. However solving it will be very hard indeed. I am sure Mclaren will improve, and move up the grid. Mclaren are a very well resourced and clever team.

However when they do make their way back to the front, it may well be too late for them to challenge for the title. I do think we will see them win or two a race this season, but not in the early stages of the year.

It’s not a huge surprise that Mclaren are having a difficult time. They have been very inconsistent this decade, with a mix of very fast cars, and cars that have been off the pace. This season it looks set to be the latter.

I don’t think Lewis will disappoint though. He will still fight very hard, and pull of some great moves. It will be interesting to see how he gets on in a slower car. I think he will do very well, and still drag the car to some decent results.

If he can do that, he may finally win over some of his harshest critics.

It’s going to be an absolutely fantastic season!

http://danielchalmersonf1.wordpress.com/- My new web blog is now open (although very rough around the edges at the moment).

You can now also follow me on my new F1 Twitter updates service. I may consider doing live F1 race text commentaries if I get enough followers, and people interested. http://twitter.com/dchalmersonf1

My Top 5 Australian Grand Prixs

Daniel Chalmers — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 16:31:57 -0400

There have been some very memorable Australian GPs in the past. In this article, I guide you through my personal top 5 Australian GPs of all time.

5. 2002—Melbourne

2002 had a very nasty first lap incident where Ralf Schumacher took off the back of Rubens Barrichello’s Ferrari. Ralf was very lucky his car didn’t flip over, and he escaped the crash unharmed.

Schumacher got away badly from pole position, and Barrichello and Ralf got by. Barrichello moved across twice to stop Ralf from getting by him. Barrichello also braked earlier than Ralf was expecting, initiating the big accident.

This accident caused the midfield to trip over each other, meaning 11 cars were eliminated after the first lap.

Coulthard then led as Schumacher hounded Trulli. Trulli was holding on well, but he spun out and hit the wall. This brought out another Safety Car. As it came in, Coulthard mysteriously went off before turn 13. Montoya then had a great scrap with Michael Schumacher and managed to overtake him. However, as Schumacher’s tyres got up to temperature, he managed to re-pass Montoya for the lead. Schumacher then ran away into the distance, and won the race.

Due to the high level of attrition, debutant Mark Webber scored two points for Minardi at his home GP.

4. 2003—Melbourne

A little bit of rain at the beginning of the 2003 race saw a lot of great overtaking. The Michelin runners could run on a damp track with dry tyres, whereas the Bridgestone runners couldn’t. This led to a lot of excitement and changing of positions in the opening laps.

The Ferraris surged away on intermediate tyres, but Barrichello crashed heavily, followed by Ralph Firman the lap after, which brought out the safety sar. Montoya then built up a lead from Trulli, but a rear suspension failure from Webber brought out another safety car. Montoya had pitted before this period, so he was looking good. Raikkonen (who benefited from changing to dry tyres on the end of the formation lap) was in the lead, and had a great scrap with Schumacher. He was very resistant, and ruined Schumacher’s aggressive short stint strategy.

The two Mclarens were now leading on a one stop strategy. They then both pitted, and Montoya was back into the lead. Raikkonen and Schumacher had another aggressive battle, with Kimi coming out on top again, and Schumacher fell back. After this, Raikkonen incurred a penalty for speeding in the pit lane. Schumacher then had a bargeboard that started to come loose, and he had to have it removed.

Montoya looked set for victory, but a silly error allowed David Coulthard to come away with a somewhat fortunate victory. Raikkonen finished third and Schumacher fourth.

3. 1996—Melbourne

In the first race at Melbourne in 1996, Jacques Villeneuve, in his first ever F1 race for Williams, stuck it on pole ahead of teammate Damon Hill.

At the start, Jacques got away brilliantly, but Damon Hill didn’t, and he lost out to the two Ferraris. Further back heading towards turn three, Martin Brundle had a horrific accident, as he took off another car in a dramatic barrel roll, and landed upside down in the run-off area. The race was then stopped. Brundle got out of the car unscathed.

At the restart, Villeneuve and Hill both got a great start, and spent most of the race having a fierce private battle. The gap remained very small for long periods of the race. Jacque Villeneuve was leading all the way, and doing extremely well to withstand the intense pressure on his debut.

However, disaster struck for Villeneuve on lap 53. A reliability gremlin problem allowed Hill to pass him; Hill went onto win the race. However, Villeneuve was still able to limp home in second place.

2. 1994—Adelaide

This title decider was between two bitter rivals. Michael Schumacher and Damon Hill were both vying to win their first F1 title. As the F1 circus arrived to Adelaide to contest the finale, Schumacher held the championship lead by a single point. Hill had driven the race of his life in the previous round at a wet Suzuka. Nigel Mansell took pole position, with Schumacher and Hill right behind. Schumacher and Hill both passed Mansell at the start. It was looking good for Schumacher, but Hill was staying in very close company with him, but unable to get close enough to overtake him.

Lap 35 was the lap where it got really dramatic. Schumacher made an error, and his Benetton clipped the wall with Hill right behind him. Hill then saw an opportunity and dove in on the inside. Schumacher turned in on Hill, forcing the two to collide, sending Schumacher on a spectacular half barrel roll, and out of the race. Hill had damaged his wishbone, and had to pit to mend the damage. The Williams team tried to get Hill going again, with Hill praying and hoping in the cockpit that he would be able to get back out.

Schumacher, on the other hand, was still standing at the corner where he retired, waiting to see if Hill would come back around past where he was standing. It didn’t happen. Hill was out of the race. With Schumacher’s one-point lead going into the race, he won the championship. Half the race was still remaining. Mansell went on to win the race after passing Alesi for the lead. In the end, that wasn’t important, nor the main talking point after the race...

It was the controversial circumstances, in which Michael Schumacher became Germany’s first ever Formula 1 world champion, that was on everyone’s minds.

Was his move to take Hill out of the race deliberate? Did Schumacher just crack under pressure and make a mistake? If Hill had known Schumacher’s car was damaged, he could easily have overtaken him in the next corner. The events of this Grand Prix still cause huge debates amongst F1 fans 14 years after the race.

1. 1986—Adelaide

Three drivers went into the final race of the season with a chance of winning the title, Nelson Piquet and Nigel Mansell in the Williams, and Alain Prost in the Mclaren. Mansell was the man with the points advantage. Third place would be enough to seal his championship victory. After qualifying, all was well, as Mansell sealed pole position.

The start didn’t go well for Nigel, as Senna went on to lead in the first lap, with Piquet and Prost also passing Mansell. Piquet quickly passed Senna for the lead—not long after Rosberg took the lead—and went on to build a big margin.

Piquet spun out on lap 23 after being put under pressure by Prost and lost positions. He later got back past Mansell, after which Prost suffered a puncture. Rosberg then endured the same fate whilst comfortably leading, and was out of the race. Only 25 laps were remaining, and the title could still end up in either of the three contender’s hands.

Mansell was currently in championship winning position. All he had to do was keep position and not do anything stupid. Unfortunately, this message wasn’t passed to his left-rear tyre, when it blew up at 180mph on the straightaway in spectacular fashion. It was the third high profile tyre failure of the afternoon. It was heartbreak for the British fans, and Mansell’s title challenge was over.

It was left to Prost and Piquet to battle it out for the title in the remaining laps. After witnessing Mansell and Rosberg’s tyre failures, Williams brought Piquet in to change his tyres as a precaution.

Prost stayed out and risked it, and took the lead the race. Piquet pushed as hard as he possibly could to reel him back in, but he could only get within four seconds of Alain Prost. After probably the most eventful finale in F1 history, the title went to Prost.

With huge rule changes for 2009, and what looks like a big shake-up of the F1 pecking order, this weekend’s race may have a great chance to enter this top 5 list.

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Australian GP and World Championship Odds

Daniel Chalmers — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 12:25:29 -0400

There are some great betting opportunities this weekend. With so many rule changes in F1 this season, the first race of the season is a great chance to catch the bookmakers out.

Here is my guide to a few of the best value bets.

All odds are taken from William Hill

Qualifying - Pole Position

Jenson Button 4/1
Felipe Massa 5/1
Kimi Raikkonen 11/2
Fernando Alonso 11/2
Lewis Hamilton 7/1
Rubens Barrichello 7/1
Robert Kubica 8/1
Sebastien Vettel 20/1
Heikki Kovalainen 25/1
Nick Heidfeld 25/1
Timo Glock 25/1
Jarno Trulli 25/1
Nico Rosberg 33/1
Mark Webber 50/1
Nelson Piquet Jr 50/1
Kazuki Nakajima 66/1
Sebastien Bourdais 125/1
Sebastien Buemi 150/1
Giancarlo Fisichella 200/1
Adrian Sutil 200/1

The best value bet there has to be Jarno Trulli. Trulli is one of the best qualifiers in F1 (the best in my own opinion). He also has what looks like a very fast Toyota this season. If they are close to the front running pace, then I am sure Toyota will go aggressive, and go for pole posiition.

I am surprised that the odds on Trulli for pole position are so long.

As a big outside punt Webber is a possible bet at 50-1. We haven't see much from Red Bull over the last couple of tests, but I am sure it will be a be a very quick car in Melbourne.

Like Trulli, Webber is brilliant at putting a qualifying lap together, and I am sure that he will be well up for it at his home grand prix.

Out of the favourites Kubica isn't a bad bet at 8-1. BMW haven't been making the headlines during testing, but it is very well known that they often sandbag in testing and practise.

BMW looked much less competitive at this time last season, but Kubica came from nowhere to challenge for pole position, and almost got it. Same thing could easily happen this season, except with Kubica taking the pole position.

Race win

Jenson Button 3/1
Kimi Raikkonen 5/1
Felipe Massa 6/1
Fernando Alonso 6/1
Rubens Barrichello 6/1
Robert Kubica 7/1
Lewis Hamilton 8/1
Nick Heidfeld 25/1
Sebastien Vettel 25/1
Timo Glock 33/1
Jarno Trulli 33/1
Heikki Kovalainen 40/1
Mark Webber 50/1
Nico Rosberg 50/1
Nelson Piquet Jr 80/1
Kazuki Nakajima 100/1
Sebastien Bourdais 150/1
Sebastien Buemi 200/1
Adrian Sutil 250/1
Giancarlo Fisichella 250/1

The best value bet there has to be Nick Heidfeld. Nick Heidfeld is always extremely good in race conditions. His form in Melbourne has also been good in the last couple of seasons. He finished 2nd last season, and finished 4th in 2007.

And as I explained in the pole position section, I think BMW Sauber will show more pace in Melbourne than they showed in testing. I think Heidfeld will be very strong in 2009, and no reason why it can't start with a bang here.

The Toyotas again have very long odds despite the fact that on the long runs the Toyotas have been quick and consistent in this year's tests. They look to be one of the front runners.

Either Toyota driver stands a chance of winning the race. Their only possible disadvantage is some of the cars behind them will be using the KERs system. If I were to pick one of the drivers, I would go for Trulli. If he can start at the front, then he has a good chance of challenging for victory.

Brawn GP will probably be the team to beat in the race though. The last laps of their long runs in testing looked particularly strong in comparison to the others. At 6-1, Barrichello isn't a bad bet at all. Over the long runs in testing, he has been just as strong as Jenson, if not stronger. He has a great chance of winning the race.

Podium Finish

Jenson Button 4/6
Kimi Raikkonen EVS
Rubens Barrichello 5/4
Fernando Alonso 5/4
Felipe Massa 5/4
Robert Kubica 13/8
Lewis Hamilton 13/8
Sebastien Vettel 5/1
Nick Heidfeld 6/1
Jarno Trulli 8/1
Timo Glock 8/1
Heikki Kovalainen 8/1
Mark Webber 10/1
Nico Rosberg 10/1
Nelson Piquet Jr 16/1
Kazuki Nakajima 20/1
Sebastien Bourdais 33/1
Sebastien Buemi 40/1
Giancarlo Fisichella 50/1
Adrian Sutil 50/1

Again good odds on the Toyota drivers. Toyota should be strong in Melbourne, and even if they don't win the race they has to be a great chance of them finishing on the podium.

As a rank outsider, Bourdais wouldn't be a bad bet. The Australian GP can be a crazy race sometimes and Bourdais could take advantage of that. There is always at least one shock result in Melbourne.

He nearly finished in 4th last season, but reliability let him down. I think the F1 2009 spec cars will suit him far better, and he will be one of the stars of the season.

Nico Rosberg finished on the podium in Melbourne last season, and in the last test in Jerez the Williams looked quite quick. He is another who could spring a surprise in Melbourne.

My top betting tip for the race weekend

My best value bet this weekend is Jarno Trulli for pole position. The odds are great at 25/1, and there is genuine chance of it happening. Even if the Toyota isn't ultimately the quickest car, Jarno Trulli is so good over a single lap that he can make the difference, and Toyota have often gone aggressive in qualifying.

Go onto the next page to have a look at the world championship odds.

Constructors Championship

Ferrari 11/10
McLaren 7/2
BMW 4/1
Brawn GP (Formally Honda) 4/1
Renault 12/1
Red Bull Racing 20/1
Toyota 33/1
Williams 66/1
Toro Rosso 125/1
Force India 200/1

BMW Sauber are a very good bet. Last season showed that they are very consistent, and don't make many mistakes. On the other hand McLaren and Ferrari made many errors in 2008.

If they can make another step forward in terms of pace and they can maintain their other strengths, then are in a brilliant position to challenge for the constructors championship.

Toyota again are at very long odds and worth a punt in my opinion. The question mark will be whether they can maintain good pace throughout the season.

Driver's championship

Kimi Raikkonen 4/1
Fernando Alonso 9/2
Jenson Button 9/2
Lewis Hamilton 9/2
Felipe Massa 5/1
Robert Kubica 11/2
Rubens Barrichello 12/1
Sebastian Vettel 16/1
Nick Heidfeld 25/1
Heikki Kovalainen 40/1
Mark Webber 66/1
Jarno Trulli 66/1
Timo Glock 66/1
Nico Rosberg 80/1
Nelson Piquet Jnr 100/1
Kazuki Nakajima 125/1
Sebastien Buemi 200/1
Sebastien Bourdais 200/1
Giancarlo Fisichella 250/1
Adrian Sutil 250/1

Over the course of the full season Kimi Raikkonen and Robert Kubica are the two men to consider betting on. As I have explained elsewhere, I think the Raikkonen magic will return this season, as I think the new spec F1 cars will suit him. Ferrari looks to have created another car that will allow their drivers to challenge for the title.

Kubica is very consistent, doesn't make many errors, and doesn't crack under pressure. He has the abilities to win the championship. If the car is quick, then he will definitely be there.

If you are looking for outsiders again I point you in the direction of the Toyota drivers both at 66/1.

If Brawn GP can maintain their pace throughout the season, then Barrichello is good value at 12-1.

If you decide to bet on this weekend's race or the championship then good luck. But remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

F1 2009 Driver Form Guide: Part Two

Daniel Chalmers — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 10:31:01 -0400

Welcome to PART Two of my F1 2009 form guide.

If you haven't read PART One yet then click onto the link below:

F1 2009 Driver Form Guide: Part One

Sebastien Bourdais

Bourdais deserved more from last season. Once he adapted to the Toro Rosso he showed great speed. He should have got great results in Italy, Spa and Belgium but luck eluded him.

By the end of the season, he wasn’t actually that far away from Sebastien Vettel’s pace. In 2009, I am tipping him to be a major surprise.

In 2009, the car should really suit him. He will be driving on slick tyres which he drove on in Champcar.

Also in Champcar he was used to cars with more emphasis on mechanical grip. He has a very inexperienced team mate, so he will very much be the man the team relies on. He will show the F1 paddock in 2009 why he won four Champcar titles.

In Champcar, he also used the “the push to pass” button. If Toro Rosso use KERs this season, he may be well prepared on how to make the most of it. Expect a few podiums from Bourdais in 2009.

Sebastien Buemi

Buemi’s signature for Toro Rosso was quite a surprise. Buemi is extremely inexperienced and didn’t figure heavily in the GP2 title race. It’s true he won twice in GP2 in 2008. Although these both came in the sprint races, where he took advantage of the reverse grid system.

However, he seems very well grounded, and in no doubt how big his challenge is in 2009. He seems to be quite bright and intelligent, and willing to put as much work into it as it needs. He has already put a lot of miles in already.

Whilst he won’t have a brilliant season, I don’t think he will be a complete flop as some have already predicted. He will have a solid, but not spectacular, debut season. Whether it will be enough to convince the F1 paddock that he deserves to be around for many seasons to come remains to be seen.

Mark Webber

Mark Webber has always shown that he has great speed. However big results have never been forthcoming for him. Without some of the terrible bad luck he has endured, he may have won a race or two by now.

In qualifying, he is right up there with Trulli. His qualifying pace in poor machinery has always been magic. With the grid so tight, qualifying form really could be more critical than ever. Mark can benefit from that.

His race pace is also an area where has made big strides forward. If Red Bull gives him the car, then there is no doubt that he will perform. The F1 paddock has always been split down the middle on how good he is. This is Mark’s chance to prove all those sceptics wrong.

How his pace compares to Vettel will give us a great indication on how strong he really is once and for all.

Hopefully by the start of the season he will be fully recovered from his broken leg. Apparently he also his broke his shoulder in the bike crash. This may scupper him at the start of the season.

Sebastien Vettel

With his fantastic personality and surprise results in the final third of 2008, Vettel has become a firm favourite amongst F1 fans. He is already regarded as one of the best drivers in F1.

2009 though will show whether that last comment is accurate or not. It’s easy to pop up from nowhere and spring a shock when nobody expects you to. Life is far easier when there is no pressure on you for a result. Vettel’s 2009 challenge on the other hand couldn’t be more different.

Every weekend there will be great expectation on him to get a great result. He will be under pressure every race. He also is up against a very tough teammate, who will not be very easy to beat (and according to Vettel not very easy to understand either). He has never dealt with huge pressure, or faced negative media attention.

2009 will show just how good this guy is. Is he a cut above the rest just like Schumacher and Senna were back in their early career? Or is he just merely a decent driver? 2009 will answer tells is just how good this guy is.

I am sure Vettel will drive some more extraordinary races in 2009. However I also expect him to face a few reality checks, and that won’t do him any harm at all.

Nico Rosberg

This season is extremely important for Rosberg. He has to hope that Williams provide him with a great car. He needs to show the F1 paddock why he was one of the most talked about drivers in 2007.

In 2008, he started to fall off the radar of the big teams. However when the Williams was fast, he showed that he was very quick. In Singapore and Melbourne, when he got on to the podium, he was superb.

Clearly on a day he has a fast car he can deliver. If he gets a fast car in 2009, then he will show the other teams why he should still be on their radar. However if Williams has another poor season, and he isn’t able to get the results he deserves, he may regret not bashing Ron Dennis’s door down back at the end of 2007.

This season could well end up being critical, and decide where his F1 future takes him. Nico Rosberg’s career is currently at a crossroads.

Kazuki Nakajima

Nakajima has some of the makings of being a decent F1 driver. He is extremely intelligent. He doesn’t crack under pressure. Whenever there is a result to be had he goes and gets it.

He has shown that he is good at keeping his head when others are losing theirs. It’s fair to say that many people weren’t expecting much from him last season, but did deliver a few accomplished performances.

His raw pace is his biggest issue. If he can’t get himself sorted out in qualifying, then he could find himself near the back of the grid, therefore restricting the impact he can make in races.

The grid is that tight that lacking a few tenths over a single lap could cost a driver many positions on the grid. This is the huge risk Nakajima faces.

If he falls down that trap then 2009 may end up being a tough season for Kazuki. If he doesn’t find those extra tenths he is lacking, then his long term F1 future is in big doubt. His performance was satisfactory in 2008, but 2009 has to be much better. 2009 is a huge year for Nakajima.

Jenson Button

Jenson would have been far too good not to have been on the grid in 2009. He has so many skills. He is one of the smoothest drivers in F1. He is very good at overtaking. He is extremely good in the wet conditions.

He is great at leading and inspiring a team. He has also matured through his years in F1. The fact that he didn’t say a bad word about the team in the last couple of years speaks volumes about him.

After his career almost evaporated he now appreciates what he so nearly lost. For Jenson this is like a brand new start. He is now fully motivated again, and just wants to race more than ever.

If the Brawn GP car is as good as it’s cracked up to be then expect him to fly. Throughout Jenson’s career he has always excelled in great cars (like he got in 2004 and for a time in 2006).

His weakness in his F1 career has been making the most of cars with shortfalls (think back to last season and 2001 with Benetton). He could well win races this season. But does Jenson have the outright raw pace to beat the likes of Raikkonen, Alonso, Kubica and Hamilton in a straight championship fight? Let’s wait and see.

Rubens Barrichello

Rubens Barrichello is now the most experienced driver in F1 history, and the oldest driver on the current grid. However, despite taking part in so many races, Rubens still looks as motivated and enthusiastic as he did all those years ago. He seems to have a big smile on his face more than ever.

More importantly, he still has the speed. Even though his car last year was a complete dog, he still pulled out some great performances out of the bag. Rubens is a very adaptable driver. He will make the most out of any car that he is given. He has been great at pulling off shock results throughout his F1 career.

His continued dedication cannot be questioned either. He has gone on the “KERs diet,” along with a number of the drivers to ensure that he is at no weight disadvantage in 2009. If the Brawn GP is might quick Rubens could well show the paddock that the so called “old drivers “ can still win in F1.

It would also show that teams don’t need to search for the next Lewis Hamilton, in order to bring them success. Ross Brawn could have hired Bruno Senna this season. Instead he opted for an experienced driver with a proven pedigree.

It could well turn out to be one of the most inspired decisions made all season. Rubens still clearly has it. He will be one of the feel good factors of 2009.

Adrian Sutil

This season really is do or die for Adrian. It is clear that he is a talented driver. However he hasn’t shown this talent often enough. If it wasn’t for that superb drive in Monaco last season, he probably wouldn’t even be on the grid this season.

That one race showed that he is a talented driver. However he didn’t show anything else during the whole of 2008. His main issue is that he is a very aggressive driver. Therefore he is really hard on his tyres, compromising his race pace.

With the rear slicks tyres said to wear quite badly in race trim this issue won’t just disappear. Sutil has to change his driving style to be easier on his tyres.

At least a Force India capable of challenging for points will allow everyone to assess his talent more accurately. If he gets a couple of points finishes in 2009 then he has an F1 future.

Giancarlo Fisichella

Overall Giancarlo drove very well in 2008. He did the best with the machinery that he was given. Throughout his career Fisichella has driven some superb races in cars that are under par.

At Renault, Fisichella never got it together. This is probably because he doesn’t do very well under pressure. In a leading team the pressures is constantly on. At Force India there is no pressure on him to deliver results, because nobody expects it.

That’s the sort of situation Giancarlo thrives under. He is also very experienced now, and is good when it comes to car setup and development. I would say that when it comes to racing he is a good all rounder.

If Force India allows him to compete for points, then expect Fisi to deliver a few shock results in 2009.

F1 2009 Driver Form Guide: Part One

Daniel Chalmers — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 09:34:13 -0400

Welcome to the first part of my driver form guide. In these two articles, I will be sharing my forthright views on each driver on the 2009 grid.

Who are the championship contenders?

Who has a make or break season in 2009?

Who might spring a surprise or disappoint us?

Lewis Hamilton

Now that Lewis has won a world title some of the immense pressure is now lifted. No matter what happens now, he will always be referred to as a world champion. Had he lost last season’s title final, life would be feeling much tougher right now.

It is clear that Hamilton has enormous talent.

When he performs at his best he is one of the best out there, if not the best. However he still has many flaws. He makes silly errors, and can make life hard for himself. The pressure from outside can often get to him, and affect his driving.

In the future if he can cut all these flaws from his game, then more world titles will surely be won. At the moment though it’s looking like it could be a tough season for Lewis.

The Mclaren currently isn’t a front runner. On a positive note this is his key chance to prove the critics wrong. He can prove to them that his early success wasn’t just about having a quick car.

He can prove that he can drive a car further than it deserves to be, like all the greatest drivers in F1’s history. If he achieves that in 2009, his critics will have to start finally taking note.

If he struggles in a difficult car, it will only confirm their suspicions. This season will tell us plenty about Lewis’s ability, even if he is unable to defend his title. Can he battle hard from the midfield to score points? This is one of the most interesting sub plots of the 2009 season.

Heikki Kovalainen

This is without a doubt a make or break year for Heikki. Last season he underperformed. There is no doubt the talent is there, but he has to seriously up his game. He can’t afford to be threatened by who his team mate is. He has to dig deep, and fight harder than ever before in 2009.

He needs to ensure, that he stakes his claim within the team right from the start of the season. He simply has to make a much better start to the season than he did last year. He can’t let all the momentum run Lewis’s way early on.

He needs to show Mclaren that they have two exceptional drivers, not just one. One thing that may swing in Heikki’s favour is that he has had experience of driving a difficult car (with Renault in 2007).

This may give a Heikki a small advantage over Hamilton. If Heikki doesn’t perform in 2009 his Mclaren career will surely be over. He simply has to give Lewis something to think about. Nothing less will be sufficient.

Kimi Raikkonen

He is still one of the most naturally talented drivers on the grid. Last season he never got the car to his full liking, and Massa left him behind. On the rare occasions he did like the car, he demonstrated that he was still super fast (Magny-Cours and Spa).

Also you can’t be too shabby if you score 10 fastest laps in one season (that is now a record in F1)

2009 could be a completely different story. The cars in F1 2009 will have a big oversteer tendency. This should suit Kimi’s style right down to the ground. We may finally see that magic return again.

We may see the Kimi that overtook Fisichella for the lead on the last lap of the 2005 Japanese GP.

This is certainly a huge season for him. He can’t afford to let Massa get the better of him again, otherwise his career risks going into freefall. I think Raikkonen will feature heavily this season. He can prove to his critics that he deserves the world champion tag he won in 2007.

He is one of my favourites for the 2009 title.

Felipe Massa

He has improved heavily over the last year. He has become a much more complete package, and is now far more mature than he was. To challenge for the 2009 title he will have to improve even further still.

He is surely going be against a much stronger Raikkonen. He also has to adapt to the oversteer tendency these cars will have. He is more of an understeer driver, which was a much bigger feature on last year’s Ferrari. When everything is perfect, Massa is as fast as anyone.

But when something goes wrong the wheels can come off (think Silverstone in the rain). That’s what he has to avoid in 2009. He also needs to be able to win races from further back than the front row.

In 2009 starting from pole position, and scampering away in the race will not always be possible, due to the sheer competitiveness of the grid at present. I can’t help but feel that last season may have been his best chance for the title. Let’s wait and see.

Robert Kubica

Kubica is one of the most consistent drivers on the grid. He is also one of F1’s most dedicated drivers. He isn’t in F1 for the fame and the attention. He is very hungry and has only got eyes for that world title.

Nothing will stand in his way. He will do whatever it takes. He has lost a lot of weight over the winter, so that the weight of the KERs system doesn’t disadvantage him too much.

The title is all he wants right now, and he will push everyone around him to the limit to ensure he has a chance. If BMW give him a quick car then he will get himself right into the mix.

He rarely makes mistakes, and is calm under immense pressure. Kubica is going to be one of the main protagonists in this championship. He has one of my favourites for the title along with Kimi.

Nick Heidfeld

Heidfeld’s search for a 1st race win continues in 2009. He is still one of F1’s most underrated drivers. He is very quiet, and never puts himself into the limelight, but he is a very quick (hence the nickname Quick Nick).

His race pace, race craft and intelligence when it comes to races is first class. He very often makes a nuisance of himself, and sneaks himself a great result (he finished second four times in 2008).

His main issue is his pace over one lap. If he solves this issue in 2009, he could well be one to watch in 2009. If he gets his hands on a quick BMW, then surely that first win is just around the corner.

Fernando Alonso

Alonso is the most complete driver on the grid. His race laps are always super-consistent. If a car is two or three-tenths off the pace, he can very easily make up the difference by himself. He is a real fighter!

His car development skills are probably the best of anyone in the pit lane (he is adamant he brought 0.6 seconds to the 2007 Mclaren). If anyone gives Fernando an opportunity to get a race win he will be there. Singapore and Fuji in 2008 are proof of that.

He is rather like Michael Schumacher in that he wins all the races he should win, and wins some of the races he shouldn’t. If he has a quick Renault then he has to be considered a big favourite for the title. His hunger and motivation for F1 seems bigger than ever.

You can be sure he is very keen to get one over Mclaren. If Renault doesn’t give him the car he needs, then don’t expect him to be there in 2010.

Nelson Piquet Jnr

Make no mistake about it: Nelson Piquet is extremely lucky he has a seat in F1 in 2009. Last season’s performances were pretty poor apart from a few exceptions. From the flashes of speed he has shown, he clearly has some potential there.

Another important fact to note is that he has always done better in the second season in any series he has driven in.

He needs to be more confident in himself. The biggest hurdle for him is qualifying. With the grid so tight one or two tenths of a second, could make the difference between making it to the next session and being knocked out. He can’t afford to qualify a long way behind Alonso.

This season is very much make or break for young Nelson. Nobody expects him to give Alonso a hard time. But if he isn’t just behind or beating him on the odd occasion, it’s hard to see him having an F1 future beyond 2009. He could struggle again in 2009.

Jarno Trulli

In my eyes Trulli is the best qualifier in F1 today. His constant ability to drag a car to where it doesn’t deserve to be on the grid is absolutely amazing. Over a race distance his pace has always been questioned.

However last season showed that when he has a consistent car, that’s easy on it’s tyres, that he can replicate his one lap pace into race pace too. This season’s Toyota looks mighty quick and consistent.

If the 2009 Toyota is anywhere near the front, expect Trulli to be consistently in the hunt for pole position. And if can start at the front, in a car that he is happy with, there is no reason why he can’t add to his one career race victory.

Can he perform consistently enough race to race to be a championship contender? It’s possible. Trulli has waited a long time, but he could be an outside contender for this season’s title.

Timo Glock

In the first half of the season in 2008 it was looking like doom and gloom for Timo Glock. Every weekend Trulli was outqualifying him comfortably making the races difficult for Glock.

But he showed huge grit and determination, worked hard and turned it around by mid-season. In the second half of the season he was mightily impressive.

However beating Trulli in 2009 is still going be very tough. Glock has a good chance though of winning his first race in F1 though. That would be a great result, as after six or seven races in F1 it didn’t look like he would last long.

It should be a fruitful season for Glock. He has a good chance of a long-term future in the sport.

I will give my verdict on the other 10 drivers in Part Two of this article later on.

Daniel's F1 2009 Track Guide: The Second Half of the Season

Daniel Chalmers — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:31:58 -0400

Welcome to the second half of my F1 2009 track guide. Click on the link below if you haven't read the first half of my guide. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/140466-daniels-f1-2009-track-guide-the-first-half-of-the-season Just like in the first half, I will be pinpointing all the interesting features/corners, and overtaking opportunities. During the second half of the season we will be visiting some brilliant race tracks. These include the old classics like Spa, Monza and Suzuka. Also we will be going back to Singapore for the second night race, and the last race of the season takes F1 to yet another new location. I hope you enjoy the show.

Begin Slideshow

Daniel's F1 2009 Track Guide for the First Eight Courses

Daniel Chalmers — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 09:24:40 -0400

Welcome to the first half of my F1 2009 track guide. In this slideshow, I will be guiding you through all the tracks in the first half of the F1 2009 season (the first 8 races). I will be showing the most important and interesting corners/features on each track, along with pinpointing the best places to overtake. I will also have a little look back at a few of the most memorable moments on these circuits. And finally I will be giving each track an overall rating out of 10. So go and grab yourself a cup of tea or coffee and enjoy the show.

Begin Slideshow

Formula One Testing Analysis: Who's at the Front and Who's Suffering in 2009?

Daniel Chalmers — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 16:20:43 -0400

This week, all the F1 teams have been in Barcelona for the last major F1 test of the year. For many, it was their final chance to put miles on the car and learn about their 2009 package.

The Difficulty of Analysing Testing

When studying testing times, you have to take them with a pinch of salt; we won’t know until Melbourne what the real pecking order is. There are many different variables in testing, which can give a misleading picture of who is where.

For example, we don’t know what programmes the teams are working on. They might be working on a particular area of setup. They could just be testing the reliability of the car. They could be getting used to the tyres’ behaviour over a single lap or a race distance. They are learning as much as they can about their cars, as opposed to chasing that outright quick lap.

Importantly, we don’t know how much fuel the teams are carrying. This alone can make a huge difference to the lap times. Some teams opt to run light, whereas others always tend to run heavy in testing.

Track conditions also contribute to lap times. The track conditions change throughout the day. The race track is a living creature; it will normally get more rubber on it as the test day goes on. However, any precipitation will wash all that rubber away. The track will become “green,” and therefore much slower than it was previously.

Despite all of these variables, it’s still possible to see patterns that are forming. You can spot which teams look like they are in good shape and who may indeed struggle.

By the end of testing, you can get a rough idea of how the pecking order is looking. In the last test session, in particular, a clearer picture begins to emerge. At this point teams need to assess how fast their cars really are.

Also in this final week many teams will do simulations of the race weekend. This offers the best chance of comparing their performances.

Each season, though, there is always at least one team that doesn’t end up where testing suggests they should have.

Teams may run ultra light to attract sponsors or may run extremely heavy to hide their true speed. This is a term often referred to as “sandbagging.”

In 2001, Prost were setting very fast lap times, and even broke a lap record! Once the season started, they were nowhere near the front of the grid. At the time, Alain Prost’s team were struggling for funds, so they ran their car under the minimum required weight to set fast times and attract sponsors.

Quite a devious little plan!

Last season, BMW Sauber didn’t look too good for much of preseason testing. However, they caused a big shock when Robert Kubica came from nowhere to almost snatch pole position from Lewis Hamilton in Melbourne.

So the big question on every F1 fan’s lips is how is the current order looking as things currently stand?

The Grid Is Surprisingly Close!!

This has been one of the main stories of testing this season. All the rule changes have effectively meant that each team has started from a new sheet of paper. Many figures expected this would spread the grid out. Last season, the field spread came down to about two seconds. This is the closest it had been for many season, attributed to the fact that the rules had been stable for a few seasons up to that point.

Amazingly, despite the changes, the grid looks set to close up even more. During the tests, the field has been separated on average by 2.0 to 2.5 seconds. When you take into account that some teams would have been running high fuel programmes, and others low fuel programmes, then the field is likely to be even closer than that.

We won’t see how much time covers the entire field until we start qualifying in Melbourne. I would guess the field spread could well be as low as 1.5 seconds. This would be pretty astonishing.

So why is it so close?

Simply put, many teams have adapted to the rules well and created great cars. We also have to remember that there are a huge number of large manufacturer teams compared to years' past. These teams are extremely well-funded, and have top-range facilities in place. There are more teams with the power and capabilities to build a great F1 car.

Out of the current teams, Toro Rosso and Force India are the ones most likely to be classed as minnows. Toro Rosso is, technically speaking, a customer team of Red Bull, (who look as if they have a great car), and Force India has formed a technical collaboration with Mclaren. Thanks to this, both these teams are going to improve significantly as well, despite not being as well off as the teams above them.

Compare this to the last set of major rule changes in 1998. The field spread out then—which perhaps is why many expected the same to happen this time around—but the difference was there were far more lower funded teams with nowhere near the level of facilities that many teams have now. These teams included the likes of Minardi, Arrows, Stewart Ford, Tyrell, Prost, and Sauber.

Adapting to huge new rules stretched these small teams to the absolute limit. This is a big reason why the field of 1998 spread out. The situation in 2009 is very different with many more big teams on the grid, and the minnows well supported with partnerships with other teams. I bet Minardi and Arrows would have loved a technical collaboration with Mclaren or Ferrari back in their day.

This season, a bunch of very talented and well developed teams have had the chance to start fresh. Every team started the 2009 development at the same place: on the starting line.

In the last couple of seasons, most of the teams have matched each other in terms of development rate. The main problem for the likes of Red Bull and Toyota was that they started the season over a second behind Ferrari and Mclaren. With stable rule changes, it was always an impossible task to make big inroads into that lead. Starting from scratch, and at the same level as Ferrari and Mclaren, they have a chance to edge ahead if they adapt better to the 2009 rules.

Who Are Looking Like the Current Front Runners?

This is promising to be a fantastic season. Going to Melbourne, there are three or four teams who will be starting the weekend thinking they have a decent chance of winning the race.

Throughout testing, Ferrari, BMW, and Toyota have been extremely closely matched at the top of the timesheets. When they have been doing similar runs in testing this week, their times have evenly matched. They all look like fast, consistent cars.

In the Bahrain test, these three teams were always covered by just a couple of tenths. When they joined the other teams in Jerez and Barcelona, that theme continued. Except they have also been ahead of the other teams, too (with the possible exception of Brawn GP, which is explained in the next section).

Toyota has impressed me most in testing. They have clocked up a huge amount of mileage, and the car is extremely reliable. Jarno Trulli is very bullish about his chances in Melbourne. I think this could be Toyota’s big year...at long last. They look as if they are finally realising what it takes to be successful in Formula One.

Their team members have become more passionate about racing, rather than acting all corporate. I am sure this has made a substantial difference. If Toyota doesn’t win races this season, then they will be very disappointed. It could be a big year for Jarno Trulli and Timo Glock.

Ferrari, again, have built another fast car. However, their testing hasn’t been without reliability problems. They have had a couple of scares with their KERs (Kinetic Energy Recovery system) device. Ferrari has seemed pretty intent on using their device from the start, but they may have second thoughts about that before Melbourne. Leading 1-2 in Melbourne and then having a double car failure (like Mclaren suffered in the 1999 season opener) would be seriously gut wrenching.

Their other issue is that it still takes a long time to warm up the tyres. This is at its worst in cooler conditions. This means that like the last couple of seasons, they will be at a disadvantage to their main rivals in qualifying. As things stand, that could be very critical. With the front runners so closely packed, not having a great qualifying car could cost them far more than it did last season. They need to work on this. Historically, Ferrari’s race pace has always been their strong point compared with qualifying pace. This isn’t just a recent trend.

BMW also looked to have made the step forward to regular race win contenders. BMW gave up full development on their 2008 car pretty early on, and started to focus much more on the 2009 contender. They recognised that 2009 was a unique opportunity to gain on the front runners.

It looks like BMW Sauber may well have made the right decision here, despite Robert Kubica being unhappy that BMW didn’t focus more on his 2008 title challenge. Since BMW took over Sauber back in 2006, they have made a big step every year since then. They look set to take another big step forward for the fourth year running, which is deeply impressive. They are set to be championship contenders this season. The team have often sandbagged in the past in testing, so there is a chance they are even quicker than they're letting on.

Overall, out of these three leading teams, I would estimate that Ferrari has a tiny edge in terms of race pace. When it comes to qualifying trim, BMW and Toyota are probably ahead. Toyota won’t be using the KERs system until later in the season. We will see whether this proves to be an advantage or a disadvantage to them. It could swing either way.

Have Brawn GP Staked a Claim to Be Part of this Leading Group?

Brawn GP have been one of the stories of testing this week. The car has been extremely fast straight out of the box. Even better, the car has proved to be very reliable. Ross Brawn and his two drivers, Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello, must be feeling pretty ecstatic right now.

On Wednesday, Button set a low 1:19 and Barrichello on Thursdays managed to sneak into the 1:18s. Even if these laps are glory/sponsor seeking laps, these times are fast by anyone’s standards. They are quicker than the time set in Q2 of the Spanish GP last season. It’s obvious that Brawn GP have a very quick car on their hands. Not only do they look good in low fuel trim, but their long runs have been mighty as well.

Remember that this is the car Honda started building all the way back in 2007. They gave up completely on 2008 before the season even started. Ross Brawn focused entirely—and put a lot of Honda’s cash—into building this car. They have still been developing the car during the winter, even with all the uncertainty of the team’s future. Therefore, there was always a good chance this was going to be a very fast car, and it most certainly is.

A question mark will hang over whether they can keep up the development pace over the whole season. I think they have a good chance. Honda has given Ross Brawn 100 million pounds to keep the team alive, as opposed to having to pay that amount to make all the staff redundant. The team has also been around 40 to 50 million pounds in commercial, and TV revenue money from Bernie Ecclestone.

So for this season at least, Brawn GP have a very healthy budget on which to operate. I am sure Ross Brawn will make use of every penny. He is very talented and will run a very efficient operation. It will be very much like the Renault operation, who, despite having less funds than Mclaren and Ferrari, beat them both to consecutive championships back in 2005 and 2006.

Paul Murtagh and I said in our preview of Brawn GP that podiums and points were possible. I think that will definitely happen now. Not only that, but they have now got a genuine chance of winning in Melbourne. Some experts believe the Brawn GP car is the class of the field; even Felipe Massa admitted his Ferrari couldn’t do lap times as fast as Brawn has been producing. For Felipe Massa to actually come out and say that is quite a statement. Fernando Alonso has also come out, and said that Brawn GP’s pace is for real.

Brawn GP has most certainly been the biggest story in Barcelona this week. Whether they perform in Melbourne is an entirely different matter, but the signs look as if they could be on for a great start to the season. And as already touched on, it’s not as if they don’t have the funds this season, with the team still getting Honda money.

Just think: Not so long ago Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello’s careers were in grave danger. Now they both have a car, which has the potential to be at the front of the grid. It’s strange how quickly things can change in the world of Formula One.

And What of the Others and Mclaren?

Behind the potential quadruple of Ferrari, BMW Sauber, Toyota, and Brawn GP lie another tightly packed group. Renault, Red Bull, Williams, Force India, and Toro Rosso are the next group. Red Bull and Renault are currently the teams that look to be leading this group. However, they are not too far away from the lead group. So it's possible that they could catch up and have an impact on the season, albeit not at the start of the season.

I would certainly expect Renault and Alonso to improve by Melbourne and be in the mix. Red Bull is another who is capable of closing in on the front runners. They were low key in the Barcelona test, but in Jerez, Sebastien Vettel had a very fast qualifying simulation. That car clearly has pace. It’s possible that they have been running on heavy fuel in Barcelona, and therefore appear higher than expected in Melbourne. We will find out soon.

Force India looks much more competitive, thanks to the Mclaren Mercedes engine, gearbox, and hydraulics. Toro Rosso will also be competitive thanks to their partnership with Red Bull technologies. If Red Bull have a decent car, then it’s very likely Toro Rosso will too.

But the big question mark hangs over Mclaren. No doubt the biggest story is the performance of the Brawn GP car, but the next biggest story has to be the poor showing from Mclaren. For most of the week, Mclaren has been near the bottom of the timesheets. Mclaren is not a team that normally sandbags. The form that Mclaren have shown in preseason testing is the form that has been carried over into the season.

The main concern is with the rear of the car, which explains the regular use of the 2008 wing during testing. It seems that the figures from the wind tunnel don’t match with what the car is doing on the track. Basically, the car is not doing what Mclaren’s technology told them it should be doing. Fixing the problem is far from straightforward. Mclaren will have to use their team's genius (and maybe more) if they are going to be a threat in Melbourne.

Mclaren have one more test in Jerez next week, along with Brawn GP and Williams. If they don’t get their problems sorted there, they will be in big trouble. With no more testing for the whole season, it will become harder to rectify the issues with the car. They will have to rely on wind tunnel data and simulations, which appear to be what has misled them in the first place.

The next two weeks could be critical to Mclaren’s season. Many drivers on the grid are very bullish about their chances this season. Lewis Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen, on the other hand, have remained extremely quiet.

So why do Mclaren seem to be dropping the ball?

There could be a number of reasons. Mclaren were pushing very hard throughout the championship last season due to being in an intense battle with Ferrari. Other teams started focusing much earlier on the 2009 car, so therefore they may have spent more time on the 2009 car than Mclaren. Mclaren can’t really use this as an excuse, though. Ferrari has managed to produce a very good car, despite going down to the wire in the championship in 2008.

It could be that Mclaren has become a bit too overconfident. Have they pushed a bit too hard, and been too aggressive with the design of the car? It’s interesting that Mclaren’s main area of concern is with the rear of the car, as the rear of the car plays a key part in Lewis Hamilton’s driving style. He loves to hang the rear of the car out in corners. Mclaren has perhaps focused too much on giving Lewis a car that he can thrive in and are now falling flat on their faces because of it.

It should be remembered that in recent times, Mclaren hasn’t had a permanent place at the front of the grid. 2007 and 2008 was the first time Mclaren produced an excellent car for two seasons in a row (Mika Hakkinen’s had 1998 and 1999 successes). Between then and 2007-2008, there has been a pattern regarding Mclaren’s seasons. They had a good year, followed by an average year, then followed by a good year, and so on. These last two seasons gave some the impression that this pattern had been ironed out at Mclaren.

Maybe it hasn’t after all?

It’s certainly a bit too early to be conducting the post-mortem on Mclaren. The season hasn’t even started yet! But if Mclaren doesn’t find a sudden dramatic breakthrough in Jerez, then they will be stuck in the midfield with a mountain to climb.

Final Summary

All the evidence suggests that 2009 is going to be a very closely fought season.

The new 2009 rules l has shaken up the order, and breathed new life into Formula One. There has never so much excitement surrounding a F1 test as there has been in Barcelona this week.

The victory in Melbourne could go a number of ways. Here is a summary of where the teams look to be, having studied the testing times in great detail:

GROUP ONE

Ferrari, Brawn GP, BMW Sauber , Toyota (Covered by no more than 0.2-0.3 seconds. The order these 4 teams are in is very close to call)

(Gap of approximately 0.5-0.7 seconds here to the next group)

GROUP TWO

Renault

Red Bull

Williams

Toro Rosso

Force India

(This group of teams are covered by around 0.5-1.0 seconds. The order these teams are listed is potentially the order they are in at present. Mclaren fit in the middle of Group Two somewhere, but it's hard to determine where. They could be at the front of the group, or at the back of it).

Who’s the fastest out of Group One is a hotly debated point. Everyone seems to have a different opinion in which of those four teams has the slight edge.

Before the race in Melbourne, many teams will bring more upgrades to their car. Some of these may be quite innovative upgrades, which the teams have left off the car purposely until the first race. With the ban on testing starting after Melbourne, it gives less chance for rival teams to successfully copy them.

With the field so tightly packed, if a team can find a few tenths before Melbourne, it could move them significantly further up the grid. On the other hand, there is a chance of three or four teams from behind overtaking you if you don’t add more to your car.

In both Groups One and Two, I am sure there will be a team who will have edged ahead by Melbourne. The picture could, in fact, look very different to what it is now.

Saturday in Melbourne is looking spectacular at the minute.

Not long to go now!