Bleacher Report - Articles by Matthew Goodman

Four Big Answers: Advice for a Fantasy Baseball Beginner

Matthew Goodman — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 14:58:28 -0400

Sara Hannon, a writer here at the Bleacher Report, posted a great article about four questions new fantasy players often have. As a long-time fantasy baseball player, I'd like to offer some friendly nuggets of advice that might help not only her, but many of you out there, surprise your more experienced friends with your fantasy acumen.

Question One: What's the best strategy?

The most common strategy is draft hitters early, closers late, and pitchers when they provide maximum value. This leads to many experts drafting around the average draft position, or ADP, quite often.

While any coherent, thoughtful strategy can win a league, I prefer the standard strategy because it takes advantage of several factors.

First, saves come into the league more than any other statistic. With a few specific exceptions such as Papelbon, K-rod, or Nathan, many teams have fluid closing situations or injury risks in their closer position.

A smart, active team can grab potential closers very late in the draft or off the waiver wire, essentially getting saves for little investment. This allows you to compete in saves without overpaying on draft day.

Second, pitching is more volatile than hitting. Part of this is due to the increased injury risk pitchers face and part is simply the nature of pitching. Pitchers get injured or endure bouts of ineffectiveness or bad luck with significant regularity.

There are very few pitchers who are reliable enough to take early in the draft. Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum are the two who jump to mind immediately, although Johan has had elbow problems and velocity loss in the past couple seasons.

Investing a huge amount of money or top draft pick on a pitcher is putting a lot of eggs in a very fragile basket.

Also, quality pitching comes into the league pretty often. Every year, there are guys who will surprise you with dramatic comebacks (Cliff Lee) or dominate right out of the minors (Tim Lincecum a couple years ago).

Active teams can scour the wire looking for bargains and often get great production at little cost by playing matchups.

Lastly, good hitting comes into the league very, very seldom. Puny contact hitters do not suddenly become sluggers and most breakout candidates get snapped up far too early or for way too much, like Justin Upton last year and possibly this year.

You cannot expect to be the team that gets a Ryan Braun or Carlos Pena off the waiver wire. It is wise to invest in reliable hitters early, while snapping up a few "lottery tickets" in the last couple rounds or for a dollar if possible.

Question Two: How far do you trust your instincts?

That's a tough question to answer because everyone has different predilections. Believing that Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Bay are going to have phenomenal years is not useful until you can translate that belief into quantifiable projections.

I would take a close look at the PECOTA projections for this year (subscriber only at baseballprospectus.com but totally worth it) and see if your projects seem reasonable. If they are on the high side, that's fine, trust your gut!

But here's the caveat: You should be trying to maximize value at every turn in the draft. So even if you think Jason Bay is worth of a second-round pick, you should note that his current average draft position (ADP) is 38th on ESPN.

As a rule, you should take a player as late as you possibly can to maximize your profit. If you take him round two, he HAS to have a huge year for you to break even. Note that you can only break even or lose value in this situation.

But if you can wait until round three and grab him, then you create a situation where he will most likely break even for you, and possibly even create excess value. That is how you win fantasy leagues.

Question Three: Do you nominate the player you want or nominate someone to make others spend their money?

This depends on who is in your league. If you know your opponents, then try to make them overpay for their favorite players.

For example, if one of your friends is a huge Yankees homer, nominate Derek Jeter early. He'll probably have, in his mind, plenty of money to spend to make sure Jeter is his.

Make sure he pays at least sticker price (that is, average draft price). If you get stuck with Jeter at less than that, well, now you have a bargain on your hands. It's win-win.

If you don't know your opponents, there are a couple strategies to take. Some try to nominate the guys they want early, believing that people will be loathe to overspend right away.

This is sometimes true but it can also be risky. Some avoid the players they want to try for a bargain later in the draft when people have less money to spend. Both can work but I usually try to nominate players who have big names but are, in my opinion, overrated.

That way, I can try to get people to overpay so I'll have a free hand later in the draft.

However, I usually don't go into a draft with any particular players I want. I have my projections and dollar amounts I'm willing to pay.

I never, ever go over my ceiling unless I have gotten outstanding bargains early in the draft and can afford to lock in production for an extra dollar or two.

Remember that you're not playing for sentimental value, you're playing to win. As far as fantasy goes, it doesn't matter what the name on the jersey says, what matters are the stats that the player puts up. Don't pay for a name; pay for stats.

Question Four: Homerism

Don't pay for a name; pay for stats. I know I just repeated myself, but it's equally relevant here. All of the players you named, with the exception of Drew, will likely be great this year.

But all that excellence is worthless if you overpaid and can't surround that core with complementary talent.

One of the great benefits of fantasy baseball is that it forces you to learn about players you normally would not care about.

It teaches you that the Pittsburgh Pirates aren't a complete black hole (Doumit and McClouth will be relevant), the Royals have some great young talent (Greinke, Soria, Butler, Gordon), and many of the Yankees are overrated (Jeter, Pettitte).

So take this as an opportunity to learn about new players and expand your range of baseball knowledge.

You can always cheer for your home team while watching them on TV. But it's the fantasy baseball fan's pleasure (and agony) of watching your home team play while secretly wishing that the other team's pitcher shuts them out for eight innings (only to have his bullpen blow the game).

I hope that this advice helps all of the budding fantasy players out there compete in their leagues. If any readers want fantasy advice, I'd be excited to write a fantasy mailbag once a week. So if you have any fantasy baseball questions, shoot me an email at: baseballmailbag@gmail.com

The World Baseball Classic: The Real World Championship

Matthew Goodman — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 13:24:21 -0400

During Sunday night's WBC semifinal between Japan and the United States, Joe Morgan (in his inimitable way), rambled for a while about the various reasons many American stars chose to forgo the Classic.

One he kept repeating was that American players felt it was more important to prepare for the MLB season so they can "win a world championship." Our team, hurt by injuries, didn't have a first baseman on the roster (we used Mark DeRosa at that position).

The US lost 9-4.

Last night, Korea and Japan put on a remarkable display of pitching, clutch hitting, and defense that truly lived up to its billing as the most important game of the WBC. Korean fans banged drums and smashed their Thunderstix together.

Japanese fans waved flags by the hundreds and screamed their support for their beloved team.

Each country showed off the prowess of their biggest stars, with the game finally ending as Yu Darvish, Japan's premiere pitching phenom, struck out the last batter to make sure Ichiro's clutch two-out RBI single held up for a 5-3 victory in 10 innings.

The Japanese players took a gigantic flag for a victory lap while their fans went absolutely berserk and confetti rained down from the sky. Japan had cemented itself as a global baseball powerhouse with its second dramatic WBC title.

Meanwhile, Manny Ramirez went hitless in a Grapefruit game after spending months quibbling with the Dodgers over a few million dollars.

During the WBC, American fans barely attended. American players said they felt like they were the visiting team on their own soil, in their own stadiums. Games televised in the US barely registered in the Nielsen ratings at all.

Team USA executives and management treated the tournament like an exhibition, making sure everyone got in their work and not even bothering to bring in bench players (like Grady Sizemore) to compensate for injuries.

At least most of the players, management, and fans agreed on something (for perhaps the first time in the history of baseball): they didn't care about the WBC at all.

And around the world, broadcasts brought in huge numbers, Super Bowl numbers, while foreign teams full of their countries' best players tried their damndest to win every game.

Now, I understand some of the complaints players and fans have had about the WBC. It interrupts spring training. Our players aren't in shape yet. It increases the risk of injury. Some players don't get enough playing time. Sure, all of those complaints have some merit.

But if we look around, we'd notice that we're just about the only ones complaining. Daisuke Matsuzaka looked outstanding throughout the tournament and shut down the US lineup with nasty stuff.

Ichiro was in absolutely spotless condition, as were the vast majority of Korean and Japanese players.

These guys aren't amateurs. They get paid, and paid quite well, to play baseball in their respective countries. But they were out there, putting it all on the line for a chance to represent their countries and entertain their fans.

They played with fire and passion. They played like they loved the game and their countries more than they loved their contracts and their individual teams. They played like it was for a world championship.

And they're right. It's ridiculous to call the World Series trophy a world championship. Maybe it was fifty years ago but those days are long gone. Baseball is more like soccer or basketball than American football, whether or we like it not.

It is played on every continent other than Antarctica (though it may be played there, I don't know), with high quality professional leagues throughout the world. And, as we have witnessed for a second time, the United States is not a dominating powerhouse.

It is one of many outstanding baseball nations, each with unique playing styles that make for great theater and incredibly baseball.

It's time to drop the act that we're the biggest, baddest baseball nation on Earth. Nobody believes that anymore, not after how we've struggled for two Classics in a row.

Character guys like Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis, David Wright, and Ryan Braun all played their butts off to try to win a true world championship and we didn't even bother to show up and watch.

Even our management blew off the tournament, as demonstrated by Davey Johnson's horrendous pitching management and various personnel decisions, like having Derek Jeter at shortstop and Jimmy Rollins at DH.

How do we expect to win if we're disrespecting our players by treating their commitment to play as a joke? How can you expect our best players to show up if that's how we're going to treat their best efforts?

So I offer a challenge to the players, management, and fans of American baseball. In 2013, no matter what the format for the WBC, let's take it seriously. Let's send our best players out there in outstanding shape, ready to play some serious baseball.

Let's support them by showing up to the games and showing the passion that so many foreign fans demonstrated game after game. Let's put our allegiances to our local teams aside and put our love of our country right out front.

In short, let's get ready, really ready, to win a true world championship. Because we already know that the other teams are going to do everything they can to win.

Marlins Grab Rhodes From Mariners

Matthew Goodman — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 07:14:51 -0400

In a relatively quiet move today, the Marlins acquired left-handed reliever Arthur Rhodes from the Mariners today in exchange for pitching prospect Gaby Hernandez.

Rhodes, 38, is having one of his best seasons in the majors, posting a 2.86 ERA with 26 SO over 22 innings. He is holding lefties to a .542 OPS while righties have a .598 OPS against him. He will shore up Florida's weakness against lefties to help them down the stretch run. Rhodes is getting paid near the league minimum.

Meanwhile, Gaby Hernandez, 22, is a right handed pitcher trying to salvage an injury-marred 2008. A former top prospect, Hernandez features a low 90s fastball that can touch 94, a plus curveball, and a changeup that flashes average to plus. He could be an asset for the Mariners in 2008 or 2009.

This is the right move for both teams; the Marlins have impressive pitching depth in the minor league system and the Mariners should continue to rebuild with an eye on 2010. Rhodes was having one of his best years, creating a prime sell-high situation. He should help the Marlins stay competitive as they fight with the Phillies and Mets for the NL East title, while Hernandez could play an important role in rejuvenating the Mariners' thin farm system.

Ken Griffey Jr. Heads To Chicago White Sox For Nick Masset and Danny Richar

Matthew Goodman — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 06:26:58 -0400

In a surprise move near the trading deadline, the Cincinnati Reds traded Ken Griffey Jr. to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for pitcher Nick Masset and infielder Danny Richar.

The two teams will split the remaining portion of Griffey's salary this year, along with the $4 million buyout next year. The deal is pending the commissioner's approval, which should come shortly.

From Cincinatti's perspective, the move is a salary dump, plain and simple. By getting rid of Griffey and unloading half of their remaining financial commitment to him, they save about $4 million.

Masset could be a decent reliever in the back end of the bullpen, but he lacks a true out-pitch and struggles with his command. Danny Richar can serve as a utility infielder, but he lacks the power and discipline to play every day. Neither player is a particularly outstanding commodity, but they may be relatively cost-effective for the next couple years.

For the White Sox, the move upgrades their offense. Paul Konerko's struggles (.661 OPS) have persisted, so anything they get from Griffey (.787 OPS) would be an upgrade. However, Griffey now lacks the bat speed to hit good fastballs; he may struggle with some of the power pitching in the American League. Also, he is a defensive liability. The White Sox will have a subpar defensive outfield, costing them runs on balls hit into the gaps.

This is a risk for the White Sox. Their outfield's defense is already a liability, and while the team ranks eighth in runs scored overall, their true strength is run prevention. The overall gain might be an additional win this season.

For the Reds, there is no real risk. They were not going to contend this year, so unloading the money for two potentially useful parts makes sense.

Ivan Rodriguez, Kyle Farnsworth Swapped

Matthew Goodman — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:05:51 -0400

This afternoon, the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees swapped catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez and right-handed reliever Kyle Farnsworth. For the Yankees, this move filled the void left by Jorge Posada's season ending surgery; for the Tigers, it shored up their beleaguered bullpen. This is a rare case of a seemingly even trade with both teams dealing from strength to fill a weakness.

From the Yankees' perspective, Pudge is an excellent upgrade from Jose Molina. While Rodriguez's defense has regressed in recent years, it is still good; he was +9 in 127 games last year with an RAA of 10.

This year, he is actually a bit better, with an RAA of eight in only 81 games this year (Molina has an RAA of 12 this year in 67 games). It appears Pudge's defense has stabilized for now and he should be a defensive asset for the rest of the year, if not as good as Molina.

Still, Pudge is by far the superior hitter, with an OPS of .755 compared to Molina's hideous .586. That difference should far eclipse the defensive differential. And while there have been reports of Tigers pitchers complaining about Pudge's callousness handling the pitching staff, it is unlikely to continue in New York. He will know that the New York media will be scrutinizing every move, so I expect him to be on his best behavior.

As for the Tigers, they gain some desperately needed stability for their bullpen. Todd Jones' ineffectiveness combined with the continued uncertainty over Joel Zumaya's effectiveness during his recovery created a need for a solid bullpen arm. Farnsworth should be solid with the Tigers, as he in the midst of a comeback year.

After two mediocre years with the Yankees, he finally harnessed his dominating stuff again, posting a DERA of 3.35 thus far. His strikeout rate has returned to its previously high levels (43 SO in 44.1 innings), leading to much more effective outings. He should provide quality relief in high leverage situations.

One possibly stumbling point is the effect of Joe Girardi upon Farnsworth. They have an outstanding relationship, as Girardi had caught Farnsworth in the past and made it a priority to straighten him out.

This was some excellent work by both front offices. Both teams were realistic about their needs and managed to craft a deal remarkable for its fairness. Teams in Detroit and New York should be happy about this win-win, as it enhances both teams' chances down the stretch.

ML's Top-Five Deals That Must Be Done Before the Deadline

Matthew Goodman — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 07:18:53 -0400

There are a million trade rumors floating around, as the deadline nears. Here are five trades that would happen in a perfect baseball world (or at least my perfect baseball world).

1) Jarrod Washburn to the Yankees

This one should be a no-brainer for the Mariners. They would save $13-$14 million between the next two years. That's money that could replenish their farm system, sign draft picks, or shore up their international operations.

Their organization has plenty of holes that need filling, and this money could go a long way. But apparently, Seattle management wants a solid prospect as well, a request that is utterly ridiculous. Here's hoping that they wisen up, unload Washburn, and turn the page on 2008.

2) Raul Ibanez to the Mets

This is another no-brainer for the Mariners. The Mets would like some outfield security in case some of their role players start slumping, and Ibanez is having another solid season (.810 OPS, right around his career average).

At the same time, he is set to become a free agent at the end of the year, so the best the Mariners could hope for would be to get some compensation picks. So why not unload Ibanez now for what you can get and save a couple million dollars from his salary?

As mentioned before, the Mariners could use the money to help their team in a plethora of ways. But then again, their management has proven its incompetence over the past few years so don't hold your breath.

3) Mark Teixeira to someone (Angels? Diamondbacks?)

With the injuries to Chipper Jones and Tim Hudson, the Braves' season is over. They may continue to lurk, as the Mets and Phillies duke it out, but it's highly unlikely that Atlanta is going to overcome both of those teams.

Atlanta has been talking to several teams, but they have asked quite a bit. The Diamondbacks aren't willing to part with Connor Jackson, and the Angels are never willing to part with anyone, so either team is unlikely.

But wouldn't it be refreshing to see the Angels actually step up at the trade deadline and really improve their team? They are the best team in a weak AL West, but the addition of Teixeira would make them serious contenders to win it all. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

4) Brian Fuentes to Philadelphia

The Rockies aren't ready to call it quits yet; they're only six games out in the pathetic NL West. But as bad as the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are, they should be able to patch it together enough for one of them to limp into the playoffs.

Since another miracle run is about as likely as Matt Holliday actually touching home plate on a head-first slide (yes, I'm still bitter), Colorado GM Dan O'Dowd should start unloading parts with an eye towards 2009.

Brian Fuentes has gotten a ton of attention from teams that need a good lefty in their bullpen. The Red Sox could use a lefty, since Okajima has predictably fallen back to earth. The Mets could certainly use a reliable reliever to help get to Wagner. But it is the Phillies who could use Fuentes the most.

Their entire pitching staff is a mess, but at least Fuentes would stabilize the back-end of the bullpen and serve as a dependable bridge to Lidge. They might have to unload a good prospect (Golson? Savery?) but their core of Utley, Howard, and Rollins isn't getting any younger.

Their pitching situation isn't likely to vastly improve in the next couple years, so this might be their best shot at winning.

5) Manny Ramirez to the Marlins

You're probably asking how can the Marlins afford Manny Ramirez. Well, they can't, but I don't care. I propose this trade solely because Manny Ramirez doesn't understand that he is incredibly lucky to be playing so many meaningful games at Fenway Park in front of thousands of screaming, enthusiastic fans.

If he doesn't care about it, then he should be stuck playing meaningless games to empty stadiums all year long.

Playing baseball is a privilege, Manny, not a right. And while I'm sure plenty of teams care more about your hitting skills than your temper tantrums, here's hoping that someday you will wake up and realize how incredibly lucky you are to be a star in MLB.

Is Brian Bannister Heading to the New York Yankees?

Matthew Goodman — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 02:52:36 -0400

Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star speculated about a possible deal Saturday that would send Brian Bannister to the Yankees and Melky Cabrera to the Royals. On its face, the deal seems logical. It would allow the Royals to shift David DeJesus out of center field and into left, where his mediocre defense wouldn't hurt them nearly as much.

To quantify the defensive gain, DeJesus had a minus-12 RAA (runs above average) rating last year in 152 games. Cabrera rated plus-15 in 120 games last year, leading to an overall gain of plus-27 net runs prevented, possibly more if Cabrera plays every day.

Mark Teahen would then shift to first, replacing Ross Gload. Replacing Gload would be merciful, to say the least, given that he is replacement-level offensively and defensively.

From the Yankees' standpoint, the trade makes less sense. While Melky has been terrible at the plate this year (.655 OPS), he is still playing above-average defense in center field.

Their other center-field options are less than remarkable. I'm sure Brett Gardner could play center, but he's even worse at hitting than Cabrera (.396 OPS in limited time).

While it's obvious that any center fielder would just be keeping the seat warm for Austin Jackson, the trade for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte made it obvious the Yankees are still engaged in "win-now" mode, so keeping an offensive black hole in center would not be a good idea.

Furthermore, Brian Bannister simply isn't that a good pitcher. Sure, he's fantastic to interview and knows more about statistics than most players. Unfortunately, that hasn't, and probably won't, translated into on-field success.

His stuff has always been fringy, and moving to the AL East will only make that more obvious. I'm not convinced that a guy with a DERA (defense-adjusted ERA) of 5.47 can survive the division.

In the end, I doubt this deal will happen. The Yankees have expressed interest in Greinke, and I'm sure that Dayton Moore has tried to steer the conversation to Bannister.

This trade would certainly help the Royals in the short term, but it probably wouldn't solve the Yankees' problems with the back end of their rotation. So I'd chalk this one up as a product of the deadline rumor mill and nothing more.

Yankees Grab Xavier Nady, Damaso Marte from Pirates

Matthew Goodman — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 18:52:12 -0400

Not content to simply beat the Red Sox in a 1-0 shutout at Fenway Friday night, the Yankees agreed to a deal with the Pirates that will send outfielder Xavier Nady and lefty pitcher Damaso Marte to the Bronx in exchange for minor-league outfielder Jose Tabata and pitchers Ross Ohlendorf, Daniel McCutcheon, and Jeff Karstens.

Both teams did quite well. Nady should provide some stability to the depleted Yankees outfield and help balance the lefty-heavy Bombers lineup. While he played right field for the Pirates, he can play a slightly below average left field, as well.

Nady is enjoying his best season in the majors, posting a line of .330/.383/.535 this year. This is unlikely to continue, since his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is an insane .363, an absolutely unsustainable number (his career BABIP is .317). Regardless, he should be a good substitute for the injured Hideki Matsui, and is not eligible for arbitration until the end of 2009.

Damaso Marte will immediately become the Yankees' lefty specialist, even though his splits have been better this year against righties than lefties (.255 batting average against for lefties, .200 for righties). He should be a good addition to an already solid bullpen.

As for the Pirates' end of the deal, it clearly centers around Jose Tabata. Tabata, 19, was a top prospect in the Yankees' farm system. He is a possible five-tool talent with exceptional bat speed. He flew through the Yankees' farm system until 2006, when he was hit on the hand by a pitch. His recovery from the injury has been slow, and his power never recovered. This year has reduced his value thanks to a less-than-impressive line of .248/.320/.310 at Double-A Trenton. However, he is very young for Double-A, and may still achieve his full potential as a star outfielder.

Ross Ohlendorf is another name of note. While he struggled in his debut with the Yankees this year (1-1, 6.53 ERA), he still possess a power arm. The Yankees used him as a reliever this year, but his recent return to starting in the minors might increase his value. The former centerpiece for the Randy Johnson deal may never reach his full potential, but he may become a valuable piece of the Pirates' bullpen or rotation in the near future.

McCutcheon, a 13th round selection, is a 25 year old right hander who could have some value for the Pirates. He works in the low 90s and features a nasty split-change. However, his development has taken longer than expected.

Darrell Rasner, 27, is a right hander with fringy stuff. He's a command and control guy who has struggled in his limited time in the majors (5-7, 4.83 ERA this year). However, he might fare better once he's out of the AL East.

Overall, a good trade for both sides. The Yankees shore up their outfield and grab a lefty reliever, while the Pirates get some prospects with significant upside in Tabata, Ohlendorf, and, to a lesser extent, McCutcheon.

Why Alexei Ramirez Isn't a Star

Matthew Goodman — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 04:47:23 -0400

Here in Chicago, there is a lot of talk about the "Cuban Missile," otherwise known as Alexei Ramirez, the second baseman for the White Sox. In a great piece in the Examiner, JJ Stankevitz discusses Ramirez's transition from an afterthought to an everyday player.

And while his growth has been remarkable, Ramirez is far from a star. He may have become overrated here in Chicago faster than Joey Chestnut can clean out your family barbecue.

Let's start with the fact that Ramirez is 26-years old. Since most baseball players hit their physical peak around age 27, there is not much more projection for him physically. He might gain a bit here and there with his peripheral skills, but it is unlikely that his core skills will improve significantly.

More troubling, his core skills seem to have some weaknesses that might become more obvious over time.

Much has been made of Ramirez's bat speed, and for good reason. His swing generates good power when he makes contact. This shows in the numbers, since he has eight HR and seven SB in 251 AB this year. Over a full season of about 600 at-bats, that's 19 HR and 17 SB. Plus, he comes into today's game with an avg. of .307. So far, so good.

The real red flags come up when you look at his peripheral stats. Even though JJ claims that Ramirez has to be aggressive to succeed, his OBP of .327 cannot be ignored because it points to larger problems.

Overall, his plate discipline is atrocious. His chase percentage (which means the percent of pitches he swings at that are outside of the strike zone) before two strikes is 25 percent (major-league average is 19 percent).

His chase percentage with two strikes is an incredible 52 percent (ML average is 38 percent). His chase percentage of non-competitive pitches, or pitches that are not even close to the strike zone, is 32 percent (ML average is 20 percent).

He cannot continue to hack away and expect to even maintain his current numbers. If he cannot learn to control the strike zone, pitchers will eat him up. It is not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

Outside of his coming offensive regression, there are signs that he is not a good defensive second baseman. While some believe that he is above average, the numbers don't support this.

So far this year, he has a RAA (Runs Above Average) of -9, meaning that his defense is nine runs below average this year. His RAR2 (Runs Above Replacement, adjusted for ballpark) is one, meaning that thus far, adjusted for ballpark, his defense has prevented precisely one more run than the worst defensive second baseman in the majors this year.

For comparison, the much maligned Dan Uggla has an RAA of nine and RAR2 of 27 this year.

So while White Sox fans are surely celebrating Juan Uribe's continued absence from the everyday lineup, and rightfully so, it is unlikely that Alexei Ramirez will be a long-term solution at second base.

He has certainly been a great story this year, but as pitchers start to exploit his lack of discipline, and his defensive shortcomings become more obvious, the bloom will come off the rose.

The "Cuban Missile" may need to be renamed the "Cuban Firework": a lot of sound and fury, but over in an instant.

Why Barry Bonds Should Be a New York Yankee

Matthew Goodman — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 03:56:08 -0400

I know what some of you are going to say already: Barry Bonds did steroids, he's a horrible person, the New York media is going to go crazy, etc.

But none of that really matters. None of that impacts anything on the field.

Yankees’ management owes it to the Bombers' fans to do everything within the rules to win. Right now, that means signing Barry Bonds, plugging him into left field, and ignoring the media. Here's why.

Hideki Matsui is likely out for the season, and it is obvious that Jorge Posada is not going to be at full strength until he gets surgery, either this year or next. That leaves the Yankees lineup a bit thinner than normal.

If you've been watching recently, they have been trotting out a lineup with Melky Cabrera, Justin Christian, and Jose Molina occupying the bottom three spots in the lineup. These are not good hitters.

I don't think I need to explain how bad Christian and Molina are at hitting. But as for those who think Melky can hit, here's a number: .654. That's his OPS this season.

He has a career OPS of .710. Those are, as one of my professors used to say, some ugly, ugly numbers. And while it won't be Melky that ends up benched, taking Justin Christian out of the equation would help provided depth and stability the lineup.

As for other options, trading for a rental doesn't seem likely to happen. The asking price for Matt Holliday is too high and ditto with Raul Ibanez. The Pirates want premium talent for Xavier Nady and ditto for Jason Bay.

In any case, as good as these guys are, they aren't Barry Bonds, at least not offensively. Plus, the Yankees have committed to their youth movement. Why lose prospects for a rental when you can just spend money? It is, after all, the Yankees way.

I want to break down exactly how good Barry Bonds is, just in case people don't realize how productive old "Giant Noggin" is, even in his advanced age. Last year, Barry Bonds posted an OPS+ of 170 in 126 games at AT&T Park, a field that had a HR factor of .808, good for 24th in the league in HR rates.

Yankee Stadium was seventh, with a HR factor of 1.153.

This article here at the Bleacher Report has a good discussion of exactly how hard it is to hit homers at AT&T Park. Moving Bonds to Yankees Stadium would be like putting Joel Zumaya in a grade-school dodgeball game.

There would be tears, but they wouldn't be his.

Least you think I would ignore his defensive impact, Bonds was only slightly below average in the field last year, with a FRAA (fielding runs above average) of -6.

Granted, he only played 94 games there, but his performance the year before was similar (99 games, -6).

Compare this to Manny Ramirez's spectacular defense of -13 runs in 112 games, and you start to realize that, while Bonds wasn't even average, he was better than Manny.

And if Manny is good enough to start in LF for the Red Sox, I figure that Bonds is fine for the Yankees. Plus, he won't assault the Yankees' employees. Probably.

So the on-field benefits are all there. But I know some of you still think it's a bad idea, and that the Yankees would be universally reviled for bringing back one of the game's worst characters.

Thing is, the people who would hate the Yankees for this move probably already hate the Yankees. Sure, Red Sox fans will boo and jeer and mock the "Evil Empire." But they're going to do that anyway.

My girlfriend (a devout Padres fan) will go on at length about how much she hates the Yankees and how they try to solve all of their problems with money. But she's going to do that anyway.

It doesn't matter to the Yankee haters what the Yankees do. They're going to hate them anyway, just for existing. So what do you do when faced with people who will hate you anyway? Just ignore them and do what needs to be done.

As for Yankee fans? They'll just enjoy winning. Because in the end, that's what fans love, and that's exactly what the Yankees will do with Barry Bonds.

Win.

Can the Mets Save Barry Zito? Fugeddaboutit!

Matthew Goodman — Thu, 01 May 2008 12:02:36 -0400

In a recent front page article here at the Bleacher report, George Fitzpatrick wondered if the Mets can save Barry Zito? He writes:

"Zito doesn't have those obvious reasons for decline [age, injuries] meaning his problems might be more subtle - his issues are probably mental or mechanical.

[snip]

And if Zito needs a change of scenery and a pitching coach that can fix his mechanics - there is a team that seems like the ideal fit. That team would be the New York Mets.

It sounds insane at first, but when you break it down, it makes plenty of sense for both Barry and the Mets. First of all, Zito would be reunited with Rick Peterson, his pitching coach during his best years in Oakland. I'm not about to call Peterson a miracle worker, and it's not like he can fix any pitcher in 10 minutes, but he has worked well with two other extreme flyball pitchers like Zito - John Maine (who wasn't even successful in AAA before being traded to the Mets) and Oliver Perez (who looked lost 2 years after a stellar 2004)."

I respectfully disagree. As I wrote in one of my blog posts about an April 16th game against the Diamondbacks, "Not so long ago, [Zito] was a Cy Young caliber pitcher. He was in the low 90's with his fastball, had good command, and could throw a devastating 12-6 curveball for strikes or bury it out of the zone at will. He also had a decent change-up."

Today, Barry Zito sits in the low to mid-80s with his fastball. It is relatively straight and he can't even command it well as evidenced by 15 walks in 28.2 innings this season. His curveball is still plus, with the good 12-6 action that was his calling card in his prime. However, both his curveball and change-up move a lot, making it hard for him to get called strikes early in the count. Plus, he leaves his change-up high in the zone, leading to some hard contact.

Since he can't command his fastball and it's incredibly hittable when it is in the zone, he essentially has no chance. He used to get ahead on hitters with the fastball early and then bury them with a curve. Now, he routinely falls behind and throws batting practice fastballs that get crushed.

Now, if Zito had an obvious mechanical flaw, there would be something to correct that might get him back on track. However, Zito's mechanics look fine to me. He stays balanced in his delivery, strides well to the plate, gathers his body underneath him, and firms up his front side just fine. His arm action looks clean. There simply isn't any life on the ball.

All of the mental games in the world can't fix a complete lack of stuff. Since mechanical problems can be ruled out, either he's injured or he's simply cooked. And I'm betting on cooked. John Maine and Oliver Perez could be fixed by Rick Peterson because they still had fantastic stuff. Barry Zito has no fastball, no command, and no chance. Unless Rick Peterson actually does have magical powers, then there's nothing he can do to help Barry Zito rise from the dead.

The Mets would be fools to take Zito unless the Giants eat 80% or more of his contract. Even then, he wouldn't fare any better in the NL East and its good hitting teams. Sure, the Mets need a fifth starter and Barry Zito can take the ball every 5th day. But unless you're willing to pay a premium to lose every fifth day, then there's no reason to get Zito. They could probably call up a fringe guy from AAA and throw him out there for the same results (and at a much lower cost).

Plus, that money would be better spent this off season or in the draft. There will be some good free agents on the market this year and the Mets have some needs. Carlos Delgado looks to be done so the Mets need a full time 1B. Mark Teixeira, anyone? With the extra millions they could save by avoiding Zito, the Mets could make a much stronger run at Big Teix-y.

So, as a fellow Mets fan, I beg you Omar Minaya: Stay away from Barry Zito.

Mad Max Scherzer: An Historic Debut and a Bright Future in Arizona

Matthew Goodman — Thu, 01 May 2008 10:05:06 -0400

I was going to write about a few of Arizona's prospects who recently broke in with the big league club, but after watching Max Scherzer destroy the Astros, I had to write about him alone.

For those who are not familiar with his repertoire, Scherzer exhibits a nasty, heavy fastball that sits at 93-96 MPH and touches 98. His fastball is reminiscent of Kevin Brown's in his prime; the ball simply explodes through the zone, forcing weak contact and getting lots of swings and misses.

Against Houston, he was working up and down in the zone, getting 94 MPH fastballs at the knees for strikes early, and then elevating later in the count while increasing his velocity. He also showed an average change-up at about 84-88 MPH and a show-me slider.

The major knocks on Scherzer are that he really only has one plus pitch (his fastball), along with a strange head-whack toward the end of his delivery. He jerks his head down and toward first base just before he releases the ball. The head-whack is a bit overstated, in my opinion.

This motion may put more strain on his shoulder long-term, since it's moving his body farther away from the ball's release point, but it doesn't seem to affect his control at all. He keeps his head facing toward the plate, unlike Hideki Okajima, and can command both sides of the plate.

Author's Note: After I wrote that paragraph, I looked through the tape again and found that his command wavered at times, but improved near the end of his outing.

He had quite a few players swinging at balls out of the zone, which shows how much movement his fastball has. However, he doesn't need to have pinpoint command. If he can keep his walks down, I think he'll be fine.

As for his line: 4.1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 7 K. Not bad, right?

This wasn't luck, either. He looked incredibly dominant. When he matched up against Lance Berkman, he got ahead with a fastball—a hard foul ball with a change-up—then blew Berkman away with two more fastballs (first one fouled off, the second one up and away).

Berkman looked off-balance and was late on most of the fastballs. He is an outstanding fastball hitter; this was just pure dominance from Scherzer.

I'm not sure if Scherzer can sustain this level of performance, unless he can refine his off-speed pitches more. He can't throw the slider or change-up for strikes consistently, which will make them less effective over time, particularly if his head-whack does actually cause control problems.

His repertoire might be better suited for a relief role as a dominant closer. I do want to see Arizona give him a chance as a starter, though. He maintained his velocity through the four innings of relief and he showed no control problems in the minors (33 K to 3 BB this year).

The skinny on this kid is that he is the real deal. He could be this year's Joba Chamberlain (for you fantasy guys) and possibly even more.

If you get a chance to watch him, pay attention to how his fastball dominates big-league hitters. It might make you giggle (I did), and it certainly provides more evidence that the Diamondbacks are going to be a quality team for years to come.

Give Ian Kennedy Time

Matthew Goodman — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 14:49:00 -0400

In response to some comments on a previous post, I'd like to talk about Ian Kennedy, the third Musketeer in the Hughes/Joba/Kennedy triumvirate. He has had a rough start to his season, with an 8.53 ERA, 0-2 record, an a horrible 17:15 BB:K ratio. Terrible numbers, to be sure. However, I think he's going to be just fine.

Kennedy's hallmark as a minor league pitcher was his impeccable command of his fastball. In 2007, his only full year in the minors, he posted the following numbers (spread across A+, AA, and AAA): 12-3 W-L, 146.1 innings, 1.91 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 6 HR allowed, 163 K, and 50 BB.

These are outstanding numbers, with consistent success at all three levels. He continued to do well at the major league level last year as well in a three game cameo at the end of the season (19 IP, 1.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15 SO, 9 BB).

This year, his command has been awful, as evidenced by his 17:15 BB:K ratio. So what is his problem and is it going to persist?

Looking at the Pitchf/x data (using Josh Kalk's excellent Pitchf/x tool), I spotted a few interesting things about Ian's pitching. First, a little information about his fastball. The most obvious thing that jumps out at me is that his command of it isn't quite as bad as previously indicated. He has 55 balls and 105 strikes (23 of those strikes being in play outs and 8 being hits). His other three pitches are also mediocre; if you combine his curveball, slider, and change-up, he registers 43 balls and 73 strikes (17 in play outs and 5 hits, all singles). So overall, his control isn't horrible, but it's not good either.

He's having trouble missing bats with his fastball (3.125% swing and miss but is doing ok with his other pitches (a combined 16.4% swing and miss). He's not Tim Lincecum but he's not horrible either. So what is his problem?

He's getting behind too many batters early in the count and walking too many guys. 29 of his at bats have ended in a hitter's count (any of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2). 34 have ended in a pitcher's count (0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2). 11 have ended in a neutral count (0-0, 1-1). Clearly, he's not getting ahead of hitters with any regularity. Hitters do much better against Kennedy after reaching hitter's counts and much worse when put into pitchers' counts. This is true for pretty much all pitchers and hitters. It is called count leverage. And once the count gets to three balls and any number of strikes, guys are teeing off on him to the tune of an OPS well over 1.200.

About 26% of at-bats against him reach a 3 ball count. Compare that to Brian Bannister (who is a somewhat similar pitcher, having decent stuff but great command and control) who only has 12.7% of at-bats reach 3 ball counts. Clearly, Kennedy needs to be more aggressive in the strike zone early in the count.

So what's the diagnosis? I believe that Kennedy will make the necessary adjustments to succeed. He proved that he has the ability to throw quality strikes in the minors and there is little reason to believe that this suddenly deserted him. Plus, he's already throwing strikes now when he's behind in the count. His fastball tails in on right handers pretty well so he can be aggressive with it early in the count.

If he takes a page out of the book that Maddux bequeathed to Brian Bannister and uses count leverage to his advantage, he should be fine.

The Beginning of Barry Zito's End

Matthew Goodman — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 14:26:00 -0400

So as I mentioned in my last post, Barry Zito is flat out awful. And as of yesterday, he's now awful in the Giants' bullpen. While I definitely think Zito shouldn't be in their rotation, the question now becomes: What value does he have in their bullpen?

The most obvious place for him would be as a long man or as a lefty specialist. We'll start with the latter first.

This year, Zito is slightly better against lefties than righties. But that's not saying much; righties have an OPS of .947 against him while lefties sport a nifty .810 OPS. Last year was slightly better, with the righty/lefty split at .723/.714. In 2006, it went the other way, with lefties actually having a higher OPS against him (.767) than righties (.754). These are not the numbers of a man who dominates like-handed batters. So this not a good place for him at all.

We've already seen how ineffective he is over several innings so he will probably be just as bad out of the bullpen. However, there is value in him eating up innings in blowouts. If the Giants are down 8-0 in the fifth, they're not coming back. Their offense just doesn't have that sort of ability to score runs. So Zito can provide value by soaking up innings (even if he's horrible in doing so), keeping their effective bullpen arms well-rested. It's not a glamorous role (and probably one any average AAA pitcher could manage) and definitely not worth $126 million, but it's something.