Bleacher Report - Articles by A-Train

2008-09 NBA Playoff Predictions: How the Lakers Will Win the NBA Title

A-Train — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 18:58:01 -0400

FIRST ROUND

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) over Detroit Pistons (8) 4-0: Joe "Teflon" Dumars took a gamble clearing Chauncey Billups' contract in exchange for Allen Iverson. Iverson proved to be a dud, Michael Curry made some boneheaded moves, and Rip Hamilton got hurt. Oh well. The Pistons are in excellent position to retool over the next two seasons and seriously contend for a title as soon as 2010-2011. For now, they're without a pulse. The Cavs will win this series walking.

Boston Celtics (2) over Chicago Bulls (7) 4-2: I wouldn't totally be surprised if this series went to seven games. The Celtics are much better than the often confused-looking Bulls, but certainly losing Kevin Garnett will affect their morale. At the end of the day, Paul Pierce will be the best player on the court and, if his play the past month—as well as in last season's Finals—is any indicator, the Bulls don't stand a chance. They'll make it closer than it should be, but Boston will move on.

Orlando Magic (3) over Philadelphia 76ers (6) 4-0: What a boring series. Really. Samuel Dalembert isn't 100 percent, and even if he were, it wouldn't matter. I like how Andre Iguodala has matured this season. But the Sixers just don't have enough to hang with Orlando.

Atlanta Hawks (4) over Miami Heat (5) 4-2: What Dwyane Wade did this season was out of this world—the Heat made a 28-win improvement—but the playoffs are an entirely different monster. I can't put my money on a team that features a collection of rookies—including one at point (Mario Chalmers)—especially when its best players (Wade, O'Neal, Haslem, and Moon) are currently banged up. The Hawks are 100 percent healthy and should take this series.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Los Angeles Lakers (1) over Utah Jazz (8) 4-1: I'd feel differently if the Jazz had home court advantage. But the reality is, they are atrocious on the road, where they are 32-50 over the past two seasons. I think they'll win a crowd-inspired Game 3 at home before bowing out.

New Orleans Hornets (7) over Denver Nuggets (2) 4-3: This will be a tough, ugly series that could involve a fight or two. Both teams are evenly matched, so I'm giving the nod to the Hornets because Chris Paul will be the best player on the court. David West is no joke and should match Carmelo Anthony's offensive production. The keys will be how Tyson Chandler defends the middle and whether or not Peja Stojakovic gets hot. Let us not forget James Posey either.

San Antonio Spurs (3) over Dallas Mavericks (6) 4-2: Dallas has been playing its best basketball of the season over the past month. Manu Ginobili is out of the picture. Still, the Mavericks have no answer for both Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Parker alone could average 30-plus points per game this series. And we all know, for as good as he is, Dirk Nowitzki remains gutless when it matters most.

Houston Rockets (5) over Portland Trail Blazers (4) 4-3: I know everyone is talking up the Blazers as this playoffs' sleeper, but the reality is they lack the experience to contend with the veteran-led Rockets. Outside of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, the Blazers don't have much scoring punch. And you can count on Ron Artest and Shane Battier severely limiting those guys. Yao Ming will be the difference-maker in the end in what will be a tough, close series.

SEMIFINALS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) over Atlanta Hawks (4) 4-2: This series will be all about tempo and who establishes/controls it. The Cavs want to walk it up and execute in the half court; the Hawks want to push it and run at every chance. The Hawks are long and quick enough to turn LeBron into a jump shooter, but Mo Williams will have a field day scoring on Mike Bibby. The key to this series will be the front line of Al Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams. If they can dominate the defensive glass and limit second-chance attempts, the Hawks can and will make this a very tight series.

Orlando Magic (3) over Boston Celtics (2) 4-2: This is where not having Posey becomes an issue. With him, the C's would be able to take at least one of Orlando's 6'10" shooters/slashers, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, out of the series. Without him, facing the Magic becomes a matchup nightmare. True, the Magic have no answer for Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Rajon Rondo, but it's a big man's game, and the Magic's advantage in the frontcourt is too great.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Los Angeles Lakers (1) over Houston Rockets (4) 4-1: I can't wait to see two of the game's best one-on-one defenders take turns guarding Kobe for a complete series. Kobe burned them both for 37 points on 14-23 shooting in a Lakers win at Houston in March. However, Artest shut him down in a January game—Kobe needed 32 shots to score 33 points—and limited him in two other meetings, including a Lakers win at Staples just two weeks ago. The Lakers are average—at best—defensively, but the Rockets lack the offense to exploit their weakness. Yao won't be a factor against Gasol and Bynum.

New Orleans Hornets (7) over San Antonio Sours (3) 4-2: At 100 percent last season, the Spurs needed seven games to close out the Hornets. This year, age and injuries take their toll. This San Antonio squad has been in a steady decline for two years now and, as great as Duncan and Parker are, the two of them can't do it alone. One team is going up and the other is going down. West and Paul, who both killed them last year, will only be tougher this time around.

CONFERENCE FINALS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) over Orlando Magic (3) 4-1: The three factors in this series will be defense, point guard play, and health. The Cavaliers are much better defensively. Williams will out-play Rafer Alston. If Lewis and Turkoglu's respective knee and ankle injuries haven't worsened by this point, they will in this series. The two forwards will have be that much better for the Magic to have a shot here. Don't count on it.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Los Angeles Lakers (1) over New Orleans Hornets (7) 4-2: If Chandler could somehow play like he did last season, I'd say the Hornets would have a shot at dethroning the Lakers. I don't see that happening and, ultimately, if the Lakers dominate the paint (they will), the series will be theirs with ease.

FINALS

Los Angeles Lakers (1) over Cleveland Cavaliers (1) 4-2: This may be LeBron's year as the best player in the game, but this is the Lakers' year as the best team in the league. The Lakers have a huge advantage in every aspect except for point guard and wherever the heck you want to categorize LeBron. Cancel LeBron and Kobe out of the equation, and look at these two teams.

Lakers: Gasol, Bynum, Lamar Odom, Trevor Ariza, Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic.

Cavaliers: Williams, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Sasha Pavlovic, Daniel Gibson, Joe Smith, Wally Szczerbiak.

Then factor in it's Mike Brown against Phil Jackson.

There's nothing left to say except for, "Congratulations to the Los Angeles Lakers for winning the 2008-09 NBA Championship."

LeBron James Will Never Play for the New York Knicks

A-Train — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 09:40:44 -0500

He loves New York City and its energy.

His favorite baseball team is the Yankees.

He’s friends with rap mogul Jay-Z, minority owner of the Brooklyn-bound New Jersey Nets.

He called Madison Square Garden the "Mecca" of all basketball arenas, and talked about how it's always a joy to play there. He added he liked the direction in which the Knicks organization was heading.

Meanwhile, he has done little to squash the rumors he’s planning to land in the Big Apple.

But does any of this mean LeBron James will be donning an orange and blue jersey two years from now?

Of course not. The reality is LeBron will never play for the Knicks.

Why should he? To pursue greater marketing exposure and the mega-millions in endorsement deals only Madison Avenue can offer? To some, that's a good enough reason alone. To others, however, the extra fame and fortune isn't worth being ring-less. Ask Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone, and Charles Barley—great players who will always serve as the posterchildren for "loser."

As crazy as this statement sounds, money is a bit overrated in the NBA right now. After all, with the game globalizing, a player can get his money anywhere.

Everyone seems to forget how Kobe Bryant wanted out of Hollywood at the start of last season because he felt his supporting cast was too weak to help him win a ring. Screw the money, Kobe basically said, knowing he needed to win a title without Shaquille O’Neal in order to really stand on his own.

It’s about winning. Heck, right before our eyes last June, we all witnessed perennial losers like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce go from "guys who get drafted in the first round of fantasy leagues" to "guys who get their jerseys hoisted to stadium rafters where legends live forever.”

No fame or fortune in the world can buy that. Tim Duncan knows it, he took a pay cut to help his team. LeBron knows it too. He is already filthy rich and will continue to be filthy rich, whether he's playing in Cleveland or Mexico. It's not about the money. It's about the chance to win.

So ask yourself this question: will the Knicks be one of the select few teams in position to seriously compete for a championship in 2011?

Of course not. So why would LeBron subject himself to taking a step back from a winning situation to a rebuilding one?

Mike D'Antoni, who is signed through 2012, has already proved his defense-ignorant brand of basketball isn't conducive to winning championships. Making matters worse, the Knicks roster currently doesn't have one player signed to play in 2010-2011 (Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries both have player options but chances are they will be long gone by then).

Teams don't leapfrog from bottom-dweller to champion. It will be years before the Knicks contend again. And people really believe LeBron, the best player in the game, will sign with them? Nuts.

Meanwhile, several rising teams will be in the position where they're one major piece away from contending for the crown. The Heat are run by someone who knows what he's doing—Pat Riley. They will have plenty of money to throw around. There's a good chance Dwyane Wade will re-sign. Michael Beasley will be under contract. Adding LeBron would immediately make this team one of the favorites.

The Hawks will have Josh Smith and Al Horford under contract. Find a solid coach, a pass-first point guard and add LeBron, and the recipe for a championship is there.

I could go on and on. Many teams will have the money and a young, talented nucleus in place. Portland, Indiana, Orlando, etc.

There are other factors to consider as well. Unlike cities such as Atlanta, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Miami, New York does not boast a community of young, black celebrities. Guys like Jay-Z and P-Diddy live in Northern New Jersey, and only navigate Manhattan in a discreet "secret entrance" type of way.

Meanwhile, South Beach is flooded with millionaires in LeBron's age group, with whom he shares interests. I think LeBron would rather kick it with Ludacris or Meagan Good than Jake Gyllenhaal or Gwyneth Paltrow.

Also, LeBron is a small-town guy. Making the leap from Cleveland to New York City is incredibly more drastic than, say, moving from Cleveland to Atlanta.

And let us not forget Cleveland, the city just up the road from Akron, where LeBron grew up. He is familiar with everything around him there. His family is there. The state has a history of idolizing its elite athletes in a way few other places can do.

Also, because of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Cavaliers can sign LeBron to the richest contract in sports.

Oh yeah, the team is also currently 15-3, looking incredible, and will only improve when Wally Szczerbiak’s contract is traded off in a deal for a significant piece (Brad Miller? Shawn Marion? Josh Howard?).

The only reason LeBron is entertaining the idea of playing elsewhere is because he wants to pressure Cavs management into committing itself to building a winner in Cleveland now. And should his bosses fail at doing that, then James will consider destinations like the ones mentioned above.

Either way, regardless of whether he stays or goes, the only way he's playing in New York City is as a member of the visiting team.

Three-Way Deal Brewing Between Clippers, Nuggets, and Knicks?

A-Train — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 11:00:56 -0400

Some people are going to call me crazy here—and maybe I am—but I'm increasingly feeling the New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Clippers—or two of the three—are soon to pull off a big deal that could involve names such as Allen Iverson, Stephon Marbury, Marcus Camby or David Lee.

Of course, I have no proof any deal is imminent; however, a look at each team's recent moves leaves a lot of head scratching and wondering.

The Nuggets have all but publicly said they plan to dismantle their team and start over. They traded their only good big man, Marcus Camby, to the Clippers for nothing—a future second round pick—and let quality back-up, fan favorite Eduardo Najera walk off without an offer.

Then they went out and signed wacko Chris Anderson and traded for Renaldo Balkman. Go to any Nuggets' message board online and you'll see many of their fans are pissed.

These moves leave the Nuggets with the following players under contract: Carmelo Anthony, Iverson, Chucky Atkins, Kenyon Martin, Nene, Steven Hunter, Linas Kleiza, Anderson, and Anthony Carter. Iverson, Atkins, Anderson and Carter are all free agents at year's end who are unlikely to return. J.R. Smith is a restricted free agent and Nuggets' brass has said they will match any offer.

Why would the Nuggets send off Camby for nothing when they know Martin and Nene will visit the IR as early as their next sudden movement? Since joining the Nuggets, Martin has only appeared in 49 percent of his team's games. Nene, in the past four seasons, has appeared in only 41 percent of the games. Making matters worse is the fact these guys might hold the two most untradeable contracts in the league.

Martin is owed roughly $45 million over the next three seasons. Nene is on the hook for four more years and $43 million. What's going on here? Do the Nuggets actually believe these guys are good enough to play big roles, and that they'll hold up physically?

The Clippers are also in a weird situation. Fans were psyched about a Baron Davis-Elton Brand combo, but that was before Brand left for greener pastures. Management responded by contacting the Knicks about adding Zach Randolph, a move that would make sense for both clubs. But as rumored, the Clips' offer of a second round pick wasn't good enough to convince Knicks' GM Donnie Walsh.

The Clippers then turned their attention to Denver and traded for Camby, a move that still doesn't make a lot of sense—a Camby-Chris Kaman pairing would be odd and this team has a greater need for a dynamic two-guard.

I wrote last Friday how I felt the Clippers might have made the Camby move—Camby, by the way, wants out of L.A.—to return to the Knicks with a different offer for Randolph and possibly others. I feel, without a doubt, the two teams are talking.

Adding to the situation now is the latest trade between the Nuggets and Knicks. The Knicks traded Balkman for nobodies Taureen Green, Bobby Jones, and a future second-rounder. It is expected both Green and Jones will be released. Certainly, this move wasn't about money because Balkman only makes $1.3 million. Apparently, the move was to create roster space. Roster space for what?

So within the past two and a half weeks, we've witnessed:

The Clippers make a trade offer to the Knicks for a player they covet.
The Clippers make a trade with the Nuggets for a player they don't need, but whom the Knicks do.
The Knicks make a small trade with the Nuggets just to create space.

Furthermore, when you look at the rosters of both teams and players' salaries, you can't help but notice that both Iverson and Marbury are both free-agents-to-be who will earn exactly the same dollar amount in salary—just under $21 million—next season. Hmm...

The Knicks need a defensive center that can rebound and run. The Clippers need a low-post scorer and a dynamic two-guard. The Nuggets need to shed payroll and get something for Iverson before he walks for nothing—a point guard would be ideal. Could a three-team deal be in the works?

The Nuggets could get Marbury (expiring contract and point guard—better fit with Carmelo), David Lee, Tim Thomas, a future first round pick (Knicks), and cash (from the Knicks—about $2.5 million).

The Clippers could get both Randolph (scoring forward they covet) and Jamal Crawford (dynamic two who would be entertaining alongside Davis).

The Knicks could get Camby (defensive center who rebounds and can run the floor), Iverson (expiring contract that would reinvigorate the fans in New York) and a future second round pick from the Nuggets.

The teams have been communicating and all of the details seem to indicate something of this nature is not only possible but brewing.