Bleacher Report - Articles by RJ Bell

NBA Referees 25-0 Against Las Vegas - David Stern Says No Problem

RJ Bell — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 06:27:03 -0400

Las Vegas, Nevada (10/2/2008) - The results of an investigation ordered by NBA commissioner David Stern have concluded that Tim Donaghy did not affect the outcome of games, and that referee Scott Foster was not involved in any misconduct. These claims run contrary to some extremely damning statistics reported by RJ Bell of Pregame.com:

The first 15 games of the 2006-07 season refereed by Tim Donaghy that had big enough betting to move the point spread by at least 1.5 points were UNDEFEATED against Las Vegas - meaning that the big-money gamblers won 15 of 15 times on his games.

The odds of that happening randomly are 32,768 to 1.

"To conclude Donaghy did not fix the games you have to believe that a person troubled enough to provide inside information to criminals was able to referee games in which he had a financial interest without any bias. Plus, you have to believe that information alone allowed big bettors to beat Las Vegas 15 straight times," said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

Donaghy called Foster 134 times from October 2006 through April 2007. The investigation was satisfied with the reason behind the calls being friendship between the men, even though, according to Fox Sports, the calls "stopped abruptly" when Donaghy is believed to have stopped gambling.

During the 2006-07 period under investigation, TEN games refereed by Scott Foster had lopsided enough betting on one team to move the point spread by at least 2 points; those ten teams were UNDEFEATED against Vegas, meaning that the big-money gamblers won a perfect 10 of 10 times on Foster's games.

The odds of that happening randomly are greater than 1000 to 1 against!

Combined, the two questionable referees had big line moves in 13% of their games. A random sample of the first 100 NBA games of December 2007 resulted in only 6% of games having a line move of 2 points or more.

RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: "Donaghy and Foster's games had big line moves over double as often as a random sample of NBA games."

RJ Bells reporting on this story has been cited by over 100 national media outlets.

RJ Bell is available for any follow-up questions at rjbell@pregame.com

See what the sports betting forums are saying about the scandal.

Overrated? Underrated? Odds on College Football's National Championship

RJ Bell — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 02:41:08 -0400

True Vegas Odds
August 26, 2008

Know more than the next guy: Sports facts backed by math!

This is the first in a weekly column in which I will break down and explain the meaning of actual odds from Las Vegas. Every guy in a bar has opinions; Vegas, though, is willing to back its opinion with millions of dollars—and that's an opinion worth taking seriously!

Misconceptions are widespread about the true meaning of sports betting odds. Our goal will be to cut through the clutter, and get to the truth.

College football starts this week, so our first look will be at the odds to win the 2009 National Championship.

To start, here are the Top 10 teams with the best chance to win it all, according to Vegas:

USC Trojans: 12.5%
Ohio State Buckeyes: 11.5%
Georgia Bulldogs: 9.5%
Florida Gators: 9%
Oklahoma Sooners: 8%
Missouri Tigers: 3.5%
West Virginia Mountaineers: 3.5%
LSU Tigers: 2.5%
Texas Longhorns: 2.5%
Clemson Tigers: 2.5%

Coin-Flip Debate of the Week:

Who has a better chance to win it all: These top five teams (USC, Ohio St., Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma) or every other team in the nation? Vegas says the odds are almost exactly even (50.5 percent against 49.5 percent)! Who would you take?

Overrated Team:

Kansas, ranked No. 13 in the USA Today poll, but only given the 25th best chance to win it all (less than 1 percent chance).

Underrated Team:

Florida State, unranked in the USA Today poll, yet given the 17th best chance to win it all by Vegas.

Should Cinderella Buy a Dress?

For those hoping against hope for your underdog team to win it all, it's interesting to note that Vegas says only 19 teams have better than a 100-to-1 shot to be National Champions.

Wins, losses, and injuries will change the NCAA Football odds each week. I'll be checking in all season with the most interesting adjustments. Next week, True Vegas Odds will breakdown Super Bowl XLIII.

Talk sports betting at PregameForums.

Breaking betting news at Pregame Wire.

Winners delivered by FreePicksByEmail.com

Questions? You can email me personally at: RJBell@pregame.com

Tim Donaghy Fallout: How Did His Bets Do?

RJ Bell — Sun, 18 May 2008 15:31:25 -0400

NBA ref Tim Donaghy bet on the games he officiated, but numbers suggest he didn't stop there.

Las Vegas, Nevada (5/18/08) - As further information is released on the Tim Donaghy sports gambling scandal, the more incriminating the facts become. Asst. U.S. Attorney Jeffrey Goldberg said in a letter filed Friday in Brooklyn Federal Court that former NBA referee Donaghy bet on about 14 games that he officiated during the 2006-07 season.

Now here's an eye-popping fact: The first 15 games of the 2006-07 refereed by Tim Donaghy that had significant enough betting to move the point spread by 1.5 points or more were PERFECT against Vegas - meaning that the big money gamblers won a 15 of 15 times on his games. The odds of that happening are 32,768 to 1.

Tim Donaghy's officiating-style statistically changed during the 2005-06 and '06-07 seasons. During the two years before (i.e., '03-04 and '04-05) he called fewer fouls than the typical NBA referee (his games scoring more than Las Vegas expected 44 percent of the time). During his last two seasons he called more fouls than average (his games scoring more than Las Vegas expected 57 percent of the time).

The odds of this change happening randomly are 19-to-1.

Now consider what must be believed in order to conclude that Tim Donaghy did not fix the games that he both officiated and bet on:

1) First, that a person troubled enough to provide inside information to criminals was able to referee games in which he had a financial interest in the outcome without any bias.

2) We also must believe that information alone allowed big bettors to beat Las Vegas 15 straight times.

3) And finally, we must believe that Donaghy becoming a much more active referee his final two years is a mere coincidence, rather than evidence of an effort to increase his influence on games.

Keep in mind that a single call can affect the outcome of a pro basketball game. During the '06-07 season alone, 13 games refereed by Tim Donaghy fell within A SINGLE POINT of the Las Vegas betting line. In his final two seasons as a referee, the winner of 14 NBA games refereed by Donaghy was decided by two points or less.

Over 50 BILLION dollars is gambled on the NBA each season. If not a single call was affected by Donaghy's bets, then we have the whole story. But if calls were affected, the true story is one of game-fixing, and thus much bigger.

My reporting on this matter from sports information site Pregame.com has been widely reported in the national media, but no one seems able to answer why we are not getting the answers about what really happened.