Bleacher Report - Articles by Brad Carroll

World Cup Qualifying: Gap Narrows Between Serbia and France In Group 7

Brad Carroll — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:12:04 -0400

The gap between France and Serbia on the Group Seven table has narrowed to just four points after Serbia failed to achieve the anticipated win in the match between these two contenders that took place yesterday (September 9).

France are playing well below the standard that they should be and will need to lift in their two remaining matches if they are going to prevail.

But both matches are easy home games and wins can be expected. The next match for France will be against the Faroe Islands on October 10 and then they will play against Austria on October 14.

Just as France are playing woefully at the moment, the Faroe Islands team is playing in the best form in years, so the task ahead for France is much tougher in reality than the FIFA standings would show.

Austria too, are capable of making things tough for France. They have shown improvement in recent matches, and have only to hope that France's long slump continues.

Serbia's remaining matches will be against Romania and Lithuania, and they will only need to win one of these matches to shut the door on France. If both matches end in draws then they should still qualify even if France wins both of their remaining matches.

Serbia are currently in the more favorable position, although on paper France does appear to have easier matches ahead.

World Cup Qualifying: Clean Sweep For England, Two Fight for Group Six Crumbs

Brad Carroll — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:32:03 -0400

England has enjoyed a fantastic run of success in this World Cup qualifying stage, joining the Netherlands and Spain as guaranteed starters after reaching the magic total of 24 points. It is now impossible for any other team in Group Six to overtake.

The moment of triumph for England came courtesy of a 5-1 victory over Croatia yesterday (September 9).

There is now a battle between Croatia and Ukraine for the vital 2nd place slot. Whichever of these teams manage to finish 2nd will have another chance to qualify for the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

Croatia are currently ahead of Ukraine by two points but with only one match remaining (an away game against Kazakhstan) they can only pick up a maximum of three more points, which would take their total to 20.

If by some chance Croatia should lose this match, then Ukraine has the opportunity to get in front, needing only a win over Andorra in the October 14 match to make it happen. If Croatia draw with Kazakhstan then Ukraine would also need to get at least a draw against England to remain in contention.

But if Croatia does beat Kazakhstan this would mean that Ukraine would need to win both of the remaining matches, which would give them a boost of six points taking their total to 21, getting them across the line by the barest margin.

The most likely scenario is that Ukraine will beat Andorra easily and then either lose or draw to England. Croatia should technically be expected to either win or draw against Kazakhstan, but as it is an away game in a potentially hostile environment it may be a wise move to refrain from betting on the outcome of this one.

World Cup Qualifying: Spain Still Dominating Group Five

Brad Carroll — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 13:45:03 -0400

Nobody could have failed to predict that Spain would finish at the top of their group in this round of World Cup qualifying matches.

Now that they have won eight of eight, the only thing left to speculate about is who will finish second.

That is a battle that can only be fought between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey. Belgium is currently in fourth place with seven points, and a win in their two remaining matches would only be sufficient to move them (at best) into third place with 13 points.

Effectively, this means that the most important game in deciding the outcome of the battle for second place is the one which will take place between Belgium and Turkey on Oct. 10.

If Turkey can win that match, then they have a really good chance to clinch second place on the table, as their only remaining match will be a home game against Armenia. We have all seen that Turkey is capable of playing a good game when they are fired up and it is not unrealistic to expect that they can give Belgium a tough match.

For Bosnia-Herzegovina, the news is not so good. They are ahead of Turkey by four points, so if Turkey does win the next two matches, they will get in front. Bosnia-Herzegovina must either win at least one of the two remaining matches that they have or get a draw in both (the points would then be level with Turkey, but they would advance due to the goal ratio).

The situation for this team is more difficult, as their next match is an away game against Estonia (they should be able to win this based on statistics, but it is far from certain), and then a home game against Spain.

In part then, the fate of Bosnia-Herzegovina depends firstly on the outcome of Belgium v. Turkey, and secondly on whether Spain brings their best squad in the final showdown.

Spain could very well take the attitude that they have nothing to do and take it easy. On the other hand, the pride of making a clean sweep could be a motivator that sees them attempt to do just that very thing.

World Cup Qualifying: Germany and Russia Safely Holding Group Four

Brad Carroll — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:26:25 -0400

Germany managed to regain their lead of the Group Four table after scoring a comfortable, albeit predictable, 4-0 home win over Azerbaijan.

The margin between first and second place in this group is just a single point, and both Russia and Germany are well ahead of the pack.

Russia now have a chance to gain the advantage in the crucial home game against Germany, Oct. 10. If they can manage to win the match, then they could possibly win the group, especially if Germany's performance against Finland is below par.

The final match for Russia will be an away game against Azerbaijan. Their path is just marginally harder than Germany's, but Russia are still a huge danger to Germany at the moment, and the Oct. 10 game could well be the decider.

No matter what, both teams are expected to qualify, regardless of whether they finish in first or second place. It is simply a matter that the team that finishes second in this group will have so much more work to do in order to get there.

World Cup Qualifying: Slovakia Still Has a Comfortable Lead In Group 3

Brad Carroll — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:01:44 -0400

Northern Ireland has never had a better opportunity, but they completely squandered it by losing their home match today (September 9) to current group leader Slovakia.

This group has been very difficult to make predictions for, but Slovakia has managed to hold off the challengers and looks almost certain to clinch victory provided that they beat Slovenia (and even that may not be absolutely required).

Slovenia are currently five points behind the leader and their next match after Slovakia will be an away game against San Marino, a team that has lost all nine of their matches so far and has a goal deficit of -43.

So there is an almost certain chance that Slovenia can make up at least three more points there, and if they do happen to win against Slovakia it would put them in the lead by a margin of one point.

In that case, it will be absolutely essential for Slovakia to at least draw with Poland. Doing so should be enough to ensure that Slovakia achieves qualification unless Slovenia absolutely hammers San Marino.

A win over Poland would totally seal the deal, but as it will be an away game against a fairly competitive team, they may struggle.

The best thing for Slovakia, then, is to ensure that they defeat Slovenia and that will take most of the pressure off their shoulders.

World Cup Qualifying: Latvia's Hope Remains Alive In Group Two

Brad Carroll — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 19:18:55 -0400

Things have gone almost perfectly for Latvia this week, thanks in no small part to their sensational 2-2 draw with Switzerland today (September 9th).

The only thing that could have made things sweeter would have been if Greece and Switzerland had drawn last Saturday (instead, Switzerland won, putting them three points clear of the field at the moment).

For Greece, the news has all been bad. Their loss to Switzerland pushed them off the top perch, and then by failing to make good on their promising start against Moldova today they have set things up a little too well for their main rivals.

Greece now hang on precariously to second place, with just one goal separating them from Latvia. But the road ahead for Latvia will still be difficult, and the Greeks still have an excellent chance to finish with the consolation prize at least.

Both Switzerland and Greece are reasonably certain to earn at least another three points each, since they are both scheduled to play against Luxembourg. Based on today's match, where Israel defeated Luxembourg by seven goals to nil, it is hard to imagine either the Swiss or the Greeks failing to get the job done there.

This means that for Latvia the next match is vital. If they can manage to win this away game against Greece, then they have a chance to momentarily overtake them.

Then if they can also win the home game against Moldova, they will hang on and remain in contention, although the only way that they can actually win the group now is in the extremely unlikely event that Switzerland lose or draw with Luxembourg.

The only way that Israel can make it into first place is if they win both of the next two matches and Switzerland lose both of their matches, while both Greece and Latvia would have to fail to win any of their matches.

This seems a rather far-fetched scenario, although second place is still a possibility if enough things can go right for them.

At the moment, Switzerland should probably be very narrow favorites to win the group simply because they only have to maintain their existing lead. They key game for Switzerland will be the home game against Israel.

There is much less pressure on Switzerland now. Provided that they do not make too many mistakes, they just need to defeat Luxembourg (which should not be a problem) and then would be left needing, possibly, just a draw with Israel, depending on what happens with Greece and Latvia.

It is a close contest but Switzerland are favourites, while the major battle appears to be the one for second place. Greece have the slight edge at the moment, because of their fixture with Luxembourg (where they should pick up another three points) but if they lose to Latvia then their fate hinges on the outcome of Latvia v Moldova.

World Cup Qualifying: Denmark Retain Narrow Lead In Group One

Brad Carroll — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:30:10 -0400

Denmark have managed to retain their lead in Group One of the first round of European Qualifiers for the 2010 World Cup, despite only managing two draws from their two latest qualifying games.

Firstly Denmark could only manage a draw in their home game clash against Portugal on September 5th, and then, surprisingly, did not appear to show any signs of improvement against a much less-fancied Albanian team today (September 9), as they drew once more.

A couple of months back when I wrote up my predictions for these matches, Denmark were in a much better position, being three points clear of Hungary and they appeared to have a relatively easy path by comparison.

At that time I predicted that Denmark would beat Albania, but would only really need to if any other team in the group also managed to get a win or two.

Hungary needed to, at least, get draws in order to stay in contention but they have now lost twice in succession. In their match against Sweden on Saturday, defeat came courtesy of a show-stopping last minute goal from Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Then today they were edged out by Portugal, whose victory has seen them rise to third place in the Group Table.

Hungary are just behind, level on points but with a slightly unfavourable goal ratio. It must be very frustrating for the Hungarian team to be in fourth place despite having achieved more wins than Portugal in the qualifying stage.

These losses have allowed Sweden to move to within two points of the leader, and should they prevail against Denmark next month then they will guarantee their place at the World Cup, while Denmark would then need to fight their way through the next stage in order to stay in contention.

It was absolutely crucial for Denmark to win today's game against Albania and they failed to do that. Now they have two matches ahead against strong opponents, firstly against Sweden on October 10th, and then against Hungary on October 14th. The one positive factor for Denmark is that both matches will be home games for them.

The crucial factor for Denmark's hopes may come down to whether the Hungarian team are demoralized after their "fall from grace" or whether they are determined to play with spirit and salvage some pride, though they have little realistic hope of actually making it through to qualification now.

But the real problem for Denmark is that Sweden's last match will be a home game against Albania and they have always been expected to win that one.

If Denmark can beat Sweden then they will be completely safe. If the result is a draw then Denmark are in serious danger, while a loss would be an unmitigated disaster. In that case the only chance that Denmark have to stay in front, is in the unlikely scenario of Sweden losing the home game to Albania.

This is how it works mathematically:

If Denmark beats Sweden then their lead increases 21-15 and they are safe, as in that case Sweden can only get a maximum of six points (taking their total to 18), and neither Portugal nor Hungary can score any more than 19 points, requiring one or the other team to win both of their remaining matches.

If the result between Denmark and Sweden is a draw, then for the moment the status quo is maintained, as Denmark will still be three points ahead (19-16), but it could then possibly become essential to defeat Hungary.

The only thing that can change that is if Portugal and Hungary draw against each other, which would mean that neither of those teams would have any chance of ousting Denmark from the top spot.

And finally a loss to Sweden would mean that Sweden draw level with Denmark to 18-18 with one apparently easy match still ahead of them, while Denmark would face Hungary in their final qualifying match.

Currently it is very close, but the Swedes are looking in a more promising position at the moment. If Denmark had defeated Albania then everything would be so different.

Now the results are going to really matter, and none more so than the outcome of Denmark v Sweden on October 10th. You won't want to miss that one if you're hoping to see either of these teams go through.

LA Galaxy Fans: Don't Blame David Beckham

Brad Carroll — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 05:46:23 -0400

LA Galaxy fans are angry that David Beckham accepted an offer to play with AC Milan while still under contract to Galaxy, and rightly so. After all, Beckham's contract with Galaxy is valued at $250 million, and nobody likes the idea that they've thrown away good money on a lemon.

But let's keep things in perspective. Who is really to blame for this situation? Can we legitimately hold it against the player simply because some idiot lawyer forgot to build an exclusivity clause into the contract?

Beckham is indeed one of the greatest non-Brazilian players in the game, and that status should be respected. He is a player that every team wants to have, and many are willing to pay large sums for the privilege. So why should he be vilified just for doing what anybody else in the same position would do?

The problem is that Beckham is the only target that the public really can visibly and publicly direct their anger at, however misdirected that anger may be. The real culprits for the fiasco are those sitting in the ivory tower hiding behind the camouflage afforded by their business suits.

Fans who question where Beckham's loyalty lies have only to look at which color shirt he wore when LA Galaxy played against AC Milan.

As Beckham once said to Michael Parkinson during an interview, every time he goes onto the field, he only has one thing on his mind—to play the best game that he can.

Considering how successful he has been and continues to be, it is remarkable that he doesn't have the prima donna attitude common to many other elite players.

In general he is able to absorb the abuse and jeers of the crowd. It's not that he is indifferent to the fans—far from it—it is just that he is so intensely focused on his game.

But every now and then, somebody will cross the line of decency. Instead of just heckling the man himself, they start insulting (and sometimes even threatening) his wife and children.

That kind of thing is clearly unacceptable and I'm always amazed that other people in the crowd don't whop the guy's ass for behaving like that. It is on those kind of occasions that Beckham's cool exterior breaks down a little.

But even then he tries to take the diplomatic approach. He simply tries to impart a little reason to the offender, and remind them that it is just a game of football and not a major World War.

Such was the case when a disgruntled fan got himself arrested at the Home Depot stadium. After hurling abuse at Beckham that just cut a little too close to the quick to be ignored, Beckham did something that he is renowned for doing on the other side of pond when fans go a little bit berko.

According to Beckham's recollection of the incident, he said something to the spectator along the lines of "You need to calm down and come shake my hand," which is all very well in England but quite a different thing in America.

There are lot of crazy people in America who will do much more than just shake your hand if given half a chance.

When the spectator actually did jump the fence (and I have little doubt that his intentions were probably perfectly benign) he was promptly restrained by the more situationally-aware security guards.

The man has now been charged with trespass, and I can't help but feel that David Beckham is partly responsible for this because he let himself forget about where he was. But that doesn't mean that the spectator should have lost his common sense.

No matter how angry you may feel about Beckham's situation, you would probably benefit greatly from taking a rational look at things and ask yourself if you honestly would not do the same thing if you were in his shoes.

And while you're at it, don't forget to send a letter to the management of the LA Galaxy soccer club telling them how you feel about their stupidity. After all, if you're going to get angry, you might as well ensure that you're directing that anger at the right people.

Michael Owen Shines as Manchester United Win Second Match Against Malaysia XI

Brad Carroll — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:43:53 -0400

Michael Owen has gotten off to a good start in his Manchester United career, having played a prominent role in the two matches against Malaysia this week.

The second of these games wasn't even supposed to be played, but due to interference on the part of a terrorist group, Manchester United's planned tour of Indonesia has had to be postponed.

As a result, Malaysian football fans were treated to a second opportunity to watch their national team play against the EPL champions, although nobody could be pleased about the circumstances by which this opportunity presented itself.

Nonetheless both teams once again provided solid entertainment for the spectators. The Malaysian team in particular did a good job, as they had played a very hard game in the first match and they could have been excused a loss by a greater margin this time.

Instead they played with the same tenacity and courage that they exhibited in the first match. Unfortunately the chances just weren't there this time, as the Manchester United team lived up to its reputation. Teamwork and unity were clearly on display in this game and it made a big difference to the result.

Manchester United jumped away quickly with a close-range goal from Federico Macheda approximately ten minutes in. Not more than three minutes later, Owen kicked in the second goal, taking advantage of a momentary blunder by the defenders.

The Malaysians did not become discouraged, and as the game wore on they seemed to gain in confidence and began to apply more pressure. In the end Manchester United were a much better team today, thanks mainly to their more united playing style, but also perhaps aided to some extent by the physical toll exacted on their opponents in the first match.

As for the terrorists, their cowardly and shameful acts have achieved nothing more than to reinforce long-standing prejudices and misconceptions about the religion that these misguided fools claim to represent, and to further damage the reputation of Indonesia.

It is very important to point out that the vast majority of Indonesians would not have supported these lunatic actions which have caused so much harm to their country. Each time something like this happens, the ordinary citizens of Indonesia are harmed by it, and it achieves nothing in terms of influencing Western politics.

So, please stop blowing things up. It is totally pointless.

Fortunately for all concerned, Manchester United have not been scared away from touring Indonesia in the future, although just when that will be remains to be seen.

Certainly the enthusiasm of the Indonesian people for the game is every bit as strong as that of the Malaysians, as reports have indicated that more than 70,000 tickets were sold for the cancelled match. We can only hope it will not be too long before they get another chance.

Amazing Goal by Amri Yahya Not Enough for Malaysia vs Manchester United

Brad Carroll — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 15:16:39 -0400

There are certain moments in life which will become forever etched in your memory. These are typically described as, "Where were you when..." moments.

Often these moments are connected with some sort of tragedy, especially anything to do with a celebrity death. But occasionally they are associated with triumph, such as when Secretariat won the Belmont and clinched the Triple Crown.

It's a tragic irony that for at least one such moment, possibly the most glorious event to have ever taken place in the history of the world (well, yes, OK that may be a slight exaggeration), the answer for many people will be: "At home, in bed, fast asleep."

What I am talking about, of course, is the magnificent goal scored by Amri Yahyah of Malaysia during the 45th minute of his teams' valiant struggle against Manchester United.

That shot is something I can barely do justice in describing. The best advice I can offer is to search YouTube for a replay, because it was a goal that just has to be seen to be believed.

Yahya intercepted an airborne football and controlled it expertly, flicking the ball so rapidly off his boot in a graceful overhead arc that Edwin van der Sar was caught totally unprepared.

That goal was so expertly placed that anyone familiar with the usual standard of football played by the Malaysian team might have considered it to be a fluke.

But a second very impressive goal, also from Amri Yahyah, during the second half sent out the message loud and clear—it is time to consider Malaysia in a new light.

Some people have scoffed at the effort and voiced their (quite unasked for) opinion that "it was only a friendly," like that somehow diminishes the sheer brilliance of these two individual pieces of play.

"Friendly" or not, it was clear that both teams were there to play a match. This was not the usual bunch of second-stringers that Manchester United normally sends out against an "inferior" opponent.

It was a team that included Giggs, Rooney, Van der Sar, and of course Nani, who so recently boasted that he could replace Cristiano Ronaldo and is still obviously not close to doing so yet, despite a quite tidy looking goal he scored midway through the first half.

If only Malaysia could produce the same high standard of play consistently, we could enjoy seeing them play more often in international competition instead of them being always pocketed away in the AFC.

To be fair to Manchester United, I have first hand experience of the Malaysian climate and I can definitely say that I hardly envy anyone who would have to run around for 90+ minutes in those conditions, especially a team more naturally acclimatized to playing during the chilly English winter.

Yayah scored his second goal of the match when Ben Foster, replacing Van der Sar, was caught miles out of his territory. Trying to stop the ball with his foot, he misjudged it and was forced to chase it. Yahyah was a good 30 yards behind but reacted quickly, outsprinting the goalkeeper and snapped a goal just as both players crashed to the ground.

That effort brought the score to 2-2 and raised hopes that Malaysia might actually have a genuine chance of staging an upset. It was certainly far from the "six or seven goal victory" that one commentator smugly predicted for Manchester United (not before the match, mind you, but shortly after Malaysia's first goal was scored).

Michael Owen, making his first appearance here in the red jersey, dashed those hopes with a lazy little instep kick that trickled past the goalkeeper (who fell) and then went on to beat a lone defender directly in front of goal who actually looked like he had every opportunity to stop the ball. But that player stumbled and Manchester United claimed victory.

It may not have made a lot of difference because if Owen hadn't scored it looked very likely that a penalty would have been awarded against the Malaysian side, as Mohd Farizal brought Ryan Giggs down well inside the box only a split second before the winning goal went in. It's very unlikely that Giggs would have missed a penalty.

No matter what, it was a very entertaining match, and due to the forced cancellation of Manchester United's planned tour of Indonesia (due to the recent terrorist attacks), a rematch with Malaysia is scheduled to be played tonight (Monday, 20 July 2009).

We can only hope that this match will be every bit as spectacular and enjoyable as the previous one, and maybe even just a little bit sweeter from the point-of-view of Malaysian fans.

I highly doubt, however, that we will see anybody eclipse that first goal from Amri Yahyah. That would be almost too sweet to contemplate. So for this match, you've been warned—stay awake! You won't want to miss a second of it.

Notes (added July 21): I have been totally overwhelmed by the unexpected popularity of this article and I'd just like to thank everyone who dropped in to read it. If you enjoyed this article, here are some links to other articles that I think you may also enjoy:

Malay Mail article: Five Minutes With Mohd Amri Yahya
KodeeXII article: ManUtd vs Malaysia XI: Amri Yahya Scores a Brace Against MU

2010 World Cup: Turkey Not Done Yet

Brad Carroll — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 16:26:02 -0400

Before the start of the 2008 European Championship, many people expected Turkey to be roasted, carved up, and sauced!

It is not a team that has traditionally commanded respect at the top levels of world football. But the squad that Fatih Tehrim brought to Euro 2008 put a massive scare into some of the best teams in Europe as they climbed upward through the ranks, wrongly considered in every match to be the underdogs.

They started their winning streak with a narrow win over Switzerland, which is nothing special in itself, but that team subsequently went on to defeat Portugal by two goals.

Turkey's next victim was the Czech Republic, whom they defeated 3-2 in a classic battle. That effort was good enough that Turkish fans began to feel the first stirrings of hope. Even I got caught up in the hype myself when Turkey reached the quarterfinals (see Croatians Salivate As Turkey Comes To The Table).

The arrogance of the Slavan Bilic in declaring that his team was naturally superior to Turkey made the result of that match all the more sweet. The effort was not without cost, however.

With his team now seriously depleted due to injuries and suspensions, everyone was starting to wonder if Tehrim would even be able to put together a complete side to face Germany in the all-important semifinal clash.

But once again the Turkish team surprised everyone with their determination. Undaunted by the odds against them and the legacy of history, the Turks played what was undoubtedly their finest game of the tournament.

Turkey dominated the start of the match, and it was Uğur Boral who kicked the first goal, getting Turkey away to an early lead. Just a few minutes later, Bastien Schweinsteiger leveled the score, but it was clearly the Turkish team that had control of the half, with 15 shots at goal compared to just three from the Germans.

Late in the second half, the game took another gut-wrenching turn as Miroslav Klose headed in another goal for Germany. Then it was Semih Şentürk's turn to be the hero, as, with only four minutes remaining, he kicked in the equalizer.

For this game to have come down to a shootout would have been a glorious achievement no matter which way the cards fell, but sadly it was not to be. In the very last minute of regulation time, Philip Lahm kicked in Germany's third goal, effectively sealing the fate of his opponents.

While they may not have achieved the ultimate prize, there is one thing that nobody can deny: Turkey had proved once and for all that they are not chicken.

Now the Turks are faced with what appears to be another impossible task, as they attempt to qualify for a "second-chance" berth in the European stage of World Cup qualifications. It is impossible for them to get ahead of Spain now, but they are only two wins behind Bosnia-Herzegovina.

If Turkey can win their remaining matches, there is still a hope for them to pull ahead on points. To do that, of course, they must hope that Bosnia-Herzegovina lose at least two matches.

As usual, the Turkish team are facing what looks—on paper at least—to be an impossible task. But they have shown time and again that they are masters of rising to the occasion.

I guess I will be as surprised as anyone to see them actually take to the field in South Africa next year, but I know I am not alone in hoping that they will.

Horse Racing Disaster Narrowly Averted in Scotland

Brad Carroll — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 14:58:54 -0400

Heavy rainfall led to a near-tragedy on Monday at the Ayr racecourse in Scotland. Struggling to maintain their footing in the heavy going, no less than seven horses fell at the home turn in the third race on the program.

The drama occurred as the two leading horses began to slide in the mud that had been stirred up during the earlier races. As those two horses began to come down, five of the following group met the same fate as their jockeys attempted to swerve around the danger only to find that the horses could not respond in the slick surface conditions.

Miraculously despite this being one of the most dramatic racing incidents to have ever taken place at the track, none of the horses were injured. All recovered quickly and simply resumed running. Five other horses also completed the race without incident.

It was only jockey Joe Fanning who was unlucky enough not to come through the ordeal unscathed. He is likely to be sidelined for some time after falling from All The Red and breaking his collar bone.

Sensibly, the stewards decided not to take any further risk with the safety of horses and riders, as they cancelled the rest of the day's races.

Thoughts On Banning Jumps Racing

Brad Carroll — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:45:58 -0400

Warning: This article is not intended for closed-minded people who have already made up their minds about the issue and are not prepared to budge from their position. It contains scientific analysis, conjecture and pure speculation.

Sub-Warning: At just over 5000 words, this is one of the longest articles you will find on this site.

Before reading any further, please take a moment to study the picture that accompanies this article. What do you notice? If you said "Three horses completing a jumping race without their jockeys," then you can move to the head of the class.

This picture really is worth a thousand words.

As a horse trainer, I have devoted a significant amount of my life to trying to "get inside the horses head" and understand what motivates these wonderful animals. I would not dare to suggest that I have completely cracked the code, but I can honestly say that I have made some significant progress.

Some of the things I have learned include:

Horses are naturally nervous and fearful creatures. This is a good thing, because it helps them to survive in the wild, where allowing something unfamiliar to get too close to you can easily result in death.
Horses have natural curiosity. This is a powerful instinct in the horse, and it can be observed by the fact that when a horse is frightened by something and runs away, he will nearly always return to investigate the thing which frightened him (unless it gives pursuit). Native Americans in the days of the "Old West" exploited this trait to catch wild mustangs.
Most horses are speed addicts. I don't mean they like going to rave parties. I mean that when given an opportunity to run, they enjoy it, and the faster they are allowed to go, the more they enjoy it.
All horses are inherently lazy and will not do anything unless sufficiently motivated to do it. For example I could put a stallion in a paddock and he is not likely to jump over the fence unless there is something on the other side that he wants badly enough (like a mare or some very enticing food) to encourage him to do it, or there is a predator chasing him and he is in fear for his life.

Now there are a few things about these statements that could need clarification. For example, you might ask: "Brad, if most horses naturally like to run fast, then why do jockeys carry whips?"

Well to answer that, I will first say that I wish they did not carry them, and secondly that although what most people are focusing on in a race is the finish where they see jockeys going nuts doing everything possible to urge their mounts on, what the uninformed spectator may not notice is the fact that for most of the race, most of the jockeys are trying to hold their horses back and stop them from going at full speed (which is what the horse really wants to do).

The basic principle is to hold onto that potential for a full speed effort for as long as possible. Then when the jockey decides it is the right moment, or simply becomes too fatigued to hold the horse back any longer, all that stored up potential is unleashed and if everything goes according to plan then the horse has enough stamina left to sustain that momentum all the way to the finish line.

All that arm flapping, cursing, shouting and whipping is not intended to make the horse run (because he already wants to do that), but to encourage him to run faster than the horse next to him which is also receiving the same treatment!

Having said that, I am not really a great fan of the whip, and I do not employ jockeys who seem tempted to use it inappropriately (at least on the field -- I don't care what they get up to in their bedrooms).

Another very obvious question is: "If horses are speed addicts as you say, then doesn't this statement contradict the fact that they are inherently lazy?"

Well, it may seem that way, but it is not really quite as simple as that. You will rarely see an older horse running around for no reason. They will do it, but usually when you're not around to witness it. Younger horses, on the other hand, simply can't help themselves.

The young of all high-level mammals indulge in play behavior. Play helps the animal to develop essential skills that it will need when it matures. This is why kittens play by chasing things and pouncing, and puppies play by seizing things in their teeth and shaking them. Human children throw things and fight each other, essential skills for our cave-dwelling ancestors.

For a horse, the most essential survival skill is to run. Thus, running for the horse is a form of play, and of course play is something we do for fun, something enjoyable. And that is why when you see a group of young horses or lambs in a field, you will often have the pleasure of seeing them race each other.

And so it is the case that just as human athletes get to "be a kid for a bit longer" by being allowed to play their sports as adults, so to is it the case for racehorses. Their "job" is to do something that they would normally do for play. The only difference is that they are doing this on somebody else's schedule rather than their own.

But even that last point I just made is not really controversial, because this fits in with a horses instinctive behavior. All horses understand the necessity of obeying the leader of the herd, and when humans do their job properly, horses will regard humans as defacto leaders. So in a wild herd, if the leader suddenly decided it was time to go for a run, then the herd will do so, regardless of whether they had other plans for the day. Being asked to race is not greatly different to that.

Now the point I am getting to via this long and winding path is that the horses you see in the picture would not be jumping over that hurdle if they did not want to. There is nobody on their backs forcing them to run and jump.

Yes, it could be argued that they are completing the race out of habit, but that is a hollow argument. The horse is quite aware that the rider is no longer present, and in fact some horses will go to quite extraordinary lengths to try and arrange such a situation!

The truth is that these horses are continuing to race because they enjoy it. Just as humans enjoy physical activity once they are made to get up off their lazy backsides and do something, so too do horses. And if anyone doubts the truth of this, then there is absolutely no question that when the three horses picture above reach the home stretch, they will begin to race each other in earnest.

But how do they know where the end of the race is?

Well, if you have ever watched a greyhound race then you will know that the dogs do not have jockeys on their backs urging them on. It is a simple matter of dogs running around an oval shaped track, chasing a mechanical lure.

What is surprising about the way these races are run is that not all of the dogs will be running at their top speed, which is what would happen in a situation with wild dogs chasing a real rabbit. They would all be trying equally to be the one to catch it.

Some of the dogs are behaving just like horses with human riders, saving their top speed potential for use later in the race. But this is the thing.... why would they do that, and how do they know when it is time to make their move? And how can I even suggest such a ridiculous sounding thing?

The only thing I can say in defense of the theory is that if you watch enough greyhound races you will notice that many dogs that win with a come-from-behind effort will get their nose in front at just the right moment to win the race, winning by the barest of margins.

This happens with amazing frequency, and can involve closely fought-out finishes with three or more dogs all swooping at the same moment to try and overtake the leader. It seems very unlikely to me that this would happen under natural conditions.

I believe that dogs learn through experience where the winning post is, and their desire to get to it first has nothing to do with the lure. The lure plays a part in getting the dog to the top of the stretch, but once the winning post is in sight, I believe that the lure takes on a secondary importance.

Each dog has to learn the technique that will help it to get across the line first and that can only be done through experience. But once they have perfected it, they will often use consistent tactics from race to race, which seems to confirm the theory.

But we still have not gotten to what is so good about being first across the line that will give the dog an incentive to try. Nobody can know for sure at the moment exactly what the reason is, but I believe it may be linked to the flash of the photo finish camera.

Something about that sudden flash of very intense light may stimulate some pleasure center in the dog's brain. If you have ever seen a child mesmerized by flashing lights or wondered why ever so many animals become roadkill victims as they stand in the road staring fixedly at the headlights swooping toward them, you are seeing this principle in action.

Here is an experiment you can try. Find an incandescent light bulb ( fluorescent lights are not intense enough), plug it in and switch it on. Look at it for about ten seconds while blinking rapidly, then look away and shut your eyes. You should notice a strange effect where you see a glowing shape moving across your eyeball toward your nose and then jumping back to the edge again to start over. It will do this for some time.

There is a very complicated scientific explanation for how this works, which deals with stuff like rods and cones and something called "visual purple", but I won't weigh you down with all that here. If anybody is interested in the details I would be happy to discuss it with them later (drop me a note and I'll get back to you).

Anyway, the effect that you get is slightly similar to what you get if you spin around with your eyes shut and then open them, but nowhere near as intense, of course. You may have noticed that children love to do this! Why? I suppose for the same reason that some adults like to drink alcohol.

It is almost like there is some part of us that is aware we do not belong in this rigid and harsh reality; that yearns to be free in a fluid soup of universal energy. The urge to slightly disengage our physical control mechanisms seems to be very strong amongst humans, and there are indications that other animals may share this trait with us.

Getting back to the point, we have established that in some way or another greyhounds know where the winning post is with some degree of accuracy based on how experienced they are, and that (whether my theory is correct or not) there is at least something which is giving them incentive to try and cross the line ahead of the other dogs and that this does not seem to be entirely related to the lure that is being chased.

I know how silly all of this sounds, and I am sure I am going to get laughed at for these suggestions, but can you honestly think of a better explanation for why a dog will put on a sudden burst of speed in the last 30 yards of a race? I don't think it is sufficient to say that it is simply a case of the leader slowing down, because there is clear evidence that the dogs which are following speed up, and not only do they do that, but they often do it at precisely the right moment.

Brief sensory overload is known to induce a sense of euphoria and calm (hypnotists have been using this method to put people into a quick trance, and it is the principle employed by "envangelists" to make people appear to swoon during healing sessions (which I believe to be simply a form of hypnosis which is even more effective because it is combined with strong faith)).

Sustained sensory overload can be very harmful, even leading to death. But for some reason, in small doses, we seem to derive some pleasure or benefit from the momentary disengagement of the conscious mind. If you know what a flashbang is, then you already have at least some familiarity with my subject matter here.

Thus in the case of the racing greyhound who crosses the line ahead of the pack we have the combination of the smell of the lure and the other dogs (who are all perspiring and exhaling stinky dogfood breath!) combined with the roar of the crowd and a brief over-exposure of the visual purple of the retina courtesy of the flash from the photo finish camera. A nice little cocktail to induce momentary sensory overload!

I don't think horses have the same motive, but it is certainly possible. There are some very big differences between dogs and horses.

A training technique that horses respond very well to is "pressure and release". This means that some stimuli is applied ("pressure"), and when the horse responds to this in a desirable way, the stimuli is discontinued ("release").

For example, suppose a horse and trainer are together in an enclosed circular corral of about 50 feet in diameter. If the trainer waves a plastic bag at the horse, then the predictable equine response is that the horse will be frightened and will run away (he can only run a short distance because of the enclosed space, but his instinct is telling him to run a long way, and unable to overcome this instinct he will gallop around in circles at the perimeter of the yard).

If the trainer just waved the bag once, then the horse would be unlikely to learn anything except that it was smart to run away from a frightening new object. If the experiment were repeated again a few times, the horse might develop a life-long fear of plastic bags!

But if instead the trainer continues to wave the plastic bag even after the horse has run off, then the horse will come to notice that running away has had no effect on getting him away from the frightening object (since he can only go in circles and remains exactly the same distance away from the object at all times) and he will notice that the object has thus far not hurt him, even though in the horse's mind it is "following" him.

At this point the horse's curiosity starts to kick in, and the urge to investigate will start to get the better of it. It will also be getting a bit tired from running around in circles, and since it is by nature a very lazy creature, it will want to stop. And so as soon as the fearful tension in the horse dissipates (evident by a change in the horse's posture, from a high head carriage to a low one, often mistaken for "submission" by ever-so-haughty humans), the trainer stops waving the bag.

Each time the experiment is repeated, it will take fewer laps for the horse to relax. The reward for the horse is that the pressure is released (bag stops being waved) and the horse eventually gets to the point where it is so accustomed to the bag that it does not run from it all unless the bag is waved with exceptional vigor (in which case he is not running from the stimulus at all, but the energy behind the stimulus, which the horse interprets as a message in horse-language from the alpha member of the herd (of two) that it should get out of the human's personal space).

What this has to do with racing is that there is a similar "pressure and release" situation that the horse experiences during the running of a race. After having been restrained for so long by the jockey from doing what it is naturally inclined to do (gallop flat out), it suddenly finds itself being asked to do just that. This is the first phase of reward for the horse -- the release from the pressure of being restrained.

However intense the pleasure derived from this sudden freedom may be, it is fleeting. The horse is finally being allowed to run fast at a time when it is least inclined to do so. As fatigue begins to set in, the horse will think about slowing down.

When the jockey notices this subtle change come over the horse, this is the moment (if he is any good at his job) that he will begin to encourage the horse to go beyond what it naturally feels capable of doing.

The horse's body is saying "stop" but the rider is saying "go" with great urgency. So conditioned is the horse by nature and nurture to obey the commands of the dominant partner (since in the horse's mind survival is linked to this), that unless the horse is overwhelmingly exhausted it will respond by going beyond the limitations that the body is trying to impose, running with renewed energy or what we might call "second wind".

Throughout all of this, the horse's heart is beating at nearly 300bpm, or almost five times per second, circulating a huge volume of blood around the horse's body. Mixed into this blood is a potent chemical cocktail of cortisol, adrenalin, endorphins, and other substances.

When the volume of "feel bad" chemicals, such as cortisol and lactic acid, reaches a certain level (in excess of 4mmol per litre of blood, if you want me to be specific) then there is a certain mounting sensation of unpleasantness which can even be translated to pain. Once this reaches a critical threshold that unpleasantness is at its maximum, a phenomenon that human athletes call "hitting the wall".

In response to this, the body responds by pumping out significantly more "feel good" chemicals, since by this time the brain has finally become convinced that the animal is in survival mode. When the volume of happy juice in the blood stream exceeds the volume of the unpleasant stuff, the horse will experience the phenomenon that is known as a "runner's high".

This is the second phase of reward for the horse, a (temporary) release from the pressure of physical pain and exhaustion, combined with a pleasurable sensation that many human athletes have likened to the experience of orgasm (I can think of more pleasant ways to achieve this feeling than by running for ten miles, but "to each his own").

The effect is only temporary however, and as it wears off the horse is still aware of the vigorous urging of the rider on its back. This constant stream of communication also amounts to a form of pressure, much in the same way as if your boss keeps coming up to you every five minutes to ask if the Dobson Report is ready yet.

Horses are not great at logical reasoning. No horse has yet graduated from a bona fide University, a feat that even Kermit The Frog has achieved.

But horses do have:

Excellent spatial memory, and
Excellent sensorial memory

There are important evolutionary reasons for why the horse has developed these traits, but I won't go into detail on these reasons here (again, you are welcome to contact me for more information).

The important thing to know is that the horse is able to recollect how it felt at some particular moment and where it happened. So, for example, if a horse gets injured while being loaded into a starting gate, it will be much more difficult to load the horse in the future because the horse has associated the painful injury with the gate.

The third and final reward phase for the horse at the end of a race is when the pressure from the jockey is released. This occurs at the moment the horse passes the winning post or just a fraction of a second afterwards.

So in the horse's mind, that pressure/release reward is associated with the winning post, since this is the object that they see just before the reward is bestowed. This creates a desire in the horse to reach that object or place more quickly, in order to receive the reward more quickly.

Anyone who has ever sat on the back of a steeplechase horse can tell you that the horses really seem to enjoy jumping. Now, I can't say that I can see anything particularly fun about the activity itself (but who knows?), however I do think that these horses get even more out of their races than do horses that race on the flat.

Each time that a horse approaches a jump, the jockey increases the pressure slightly (via the bit and his own body posture) to help set the horse up for the jump. Then as the jump is executed, the jockey removes all pressure completely, striving to allow the horse to complete the jump as freely and comfortably as possible. It is only once the horse has landed and begins to gallop off again that restraining pressure is reapplied.

In consequence, every jump that the horse completes is associated with a pressure/release reward, and it would appear that horses look forward to the jump because they have come to see it as a form of reward.

Contrary to popular opinion, jumps races are also much less physically stressful for the horse. Studies have shown that horses are much more likely to suffer internal bleeding attacks during flat races than during jumping races, and amongst endurance horses such attacks are virtually unheard of.

It is not the distance or the physical exertion of a race that does the damage, but the high speed. Sprinters, in consequence, are more likely to sustain such damage than stayers.

More horses die competing in flat races than in jumping races, but this is simply because there are vastly more flat races. In terms of per-capita deaths, jumps racing is clearly the more dangerous sport, but this should not surprise anyone.

Obviously any sport that involves clearing obstacles is going to be significantly more dangerous than a sport that just involves running around. Human athletes who compete in track hurdle races probably suffer more injuries than their flat racing counterparts, too.

But just because there is greater potential for danger in the sport does not mean by itself that the sport should be banned. There are many other factors than simple mortality and/or injury rates which should be considered.

Firstly, of course, there is the fact that as I have shown above, even though horses would not be present at the racecourse without human involvement, most of them do not compete unwillingly. Running, jumping and even racing are natural activities for a horse and horses enjoy them.

Even the "rough and tumble" of the horses bumping against each other during the running does not normally cause any great mental distress to the horse because it is no more than they would experience running in a herd of wild horses on the move.

Horses can and do willingly complete races in the absence of any form of coercion on the part of a human rider. We can therefore discount the idea that horses are being made to race against their will (even in those cases where it could be true that they are being made to race unwillingly, they will perform so poorly that it will artificially shorten their racing career anyway).

Furthermore, however many deaths may result from competition in jumping races, it stands as a fact that only a minority of those who compete will sustain a serious injury. The number of horses that die in jumping races are less than one percent of those who compete (statistics from one racing district put the number at about one fatality for every 139 starters).

While this is an unfortunate statistic, compare it with the alternative. If there were no jumping races then the mortality rate for these horses would be very close to 100 percent.

There are far more horses bred each year than the industry can sustain. Since there are not enough people with the money, facilities or inclination to take these horses in, many of them end up getting sold for meat.

I know it will bother some people when I say this, but I think it is unfortunate that any animals are killed for meat. But the idea of killing horses in this way seems particularly barbaric. It is not so much the killing itself that is the issue, but the inhumane treatment that animals receive at the hands of those who are employed in the industry.

Logic dictates that the longer an owner keeps a horse, and the more success and enjoyment that the horse brings to the owner, the less likely it is that the horse will meet such a fate, even after it has retired from racing.

Jumping races therefore can extend the lifespan for horses that do not make the grade as flat racehorses, and may even save them from befalling a horrific fate that is so much worse than a relatively quick death resulting from an activity that they enjoy. Even the pain of injury is lessened by the cocktail of endorphins already present in the bloodstream at the time of the accident and the shock of the fall.

In the unfortunate circumstances where horses have fallen and are unable to get up, there are measures in place to provide assistance, and, if necessary, euthanasia, to the horse as quickly as possible. This is always done by qualified people who genuinely have the welfare of the horse at heart. Compared to the treatment that horses receive at slaughterhouses, this is a much more dignified and humane way to end the animal's life.

It just seems more horrible because it is happening right out in public where people can see it, rather than happening on private property where there are no witnesses present to ensure that the animals are treated in a relatively humane manner.

Therefore a decision to ban jumps racing would be an ultimately cruel and evil act, unless a viable alternative is proposed that will help horses to avoid meeting an untimely end at the hands of a slaughterman. Banning the automobile would be a good step in that direction, and would solve some major environmental problems at the same time!

Those who are activists working to have racing banned may not be aware that they are advocating and fighting for cruelty. Meanwhile they are ignoring the true atrocities taking place all around them.

Now, having said all this, there are a number of things that could be done to make the racing industry safer and would help to lessen the number of serious injuries sustained by horses and humans involved in the sport.

For various reasons, mainly economic and political, industry bodies have largely been unwilling to implement rules and conditions that could help to solve some of these problems.

Horses that fall in jumping races typically do so due to one of the following three reasons:

Racing over distances that they have not been adequately trained to race over, and consequently when they become fatigued they become uncoordinated and make mistakes
The rider (and occasionally the horse) loses situational awareness and makes the jump incorrectly, or fails to avoid an obstacle (such as another horse).
The horse or rider becomes distracted by something just before or during the jump, such as a protesting activist, and being thus distracted does not execute the jump correctly.

I believe that the order I have listed these reasons in is the correct order. The vast majority of accidents could be avoided if trainers knew what they were doing. Unfortunately most trainers are still using methods handed down from their great-grandfathers (or somebody's great-grandfather, anyway).

If I expect a horse to race over two miles, I will have trained it to go four miles, or even eight. Horses just should not be at that stage of exhaustion that they cannot put their feet down in a co-ordinated way, or that they cannot propel themselves into a jump properly.

The cardiovascular system of the horse should be healthy and well-conditioned, so that the risk of internal bleeding is minimal. And riders should be "tuned in" enough to the horse that they can detect when the horse is about to falter, and can therefore take preventative action.

Penalties for riders who pull up horses that are subsequently found to have no physical sign of injury are too severe. This could mean that riders are less willing to err on the side of caution.

It is clear that there are many problems in the sport of jumps racing, and these are problems that will be difficult to solve. Solutions are not easy to implement and may be costly.

But however imperfect the current system may be, it is still far better to allow things to continue as they are than to needlessly condemn millions of horses to an untimely and cruel death by banning the very sport that is keeping them alive and well-cared-for.

Thanks for your company. I hope that I have managed to stimulate some thought on this very serious issue, and that you have gained some useful knowledge or entertainment from reading the thoughts I have shared with you today.

Please feel free to add a comment if you would like to share your own thoughts, opinions, or feedback. All comments are welcome, but polite comments (even if they disagree with what I have said here) are more likely to receive a response.

How the 2010 FIFA World Cup Is Shaping Up (Part Four of Four: July 2009)

Brad Carroll — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:52:50 -0400

Now that the Confederations Cup is safely tucked away in Brazil, we can once again turn our attention to the real contest. The qualifying rounds for the 2010 FIFA World Cup are still being played out, but here is a brief rundown on who's shaping up as the likely field and what we can probably expect to see.

This is part four of a four-part series. On this page, the main contenders from the American Confederations (CONCACAF and CONMEBOL) are discussed. To see predictions for the other confederations, please use the links in the following table of contents.

Contents
Part One - Africa Part Two - Asia and Oceania Part Three - Europe Part Four - The Americas (this page)

5. CONCACAF

a. Costa Rica (to qualify)

The Ticos have done well to win all but one of their Round Four matches to date. Now they are almost ready for a second successive attempt at the World Cup. In 2006 they did not get past the Group Stage, but they did manage to score goals against Germany and Poland, so they must be rated as having at least some hope of scoring some more.

Where their team has been let down previously is in defense, as they conceded more goals than they scored. Hopefully this has been tightened up and Costa Rica is ready to put on an improved performance.

b. United States of America (to qualify)

The U.S. soccer team has rarely attracted a lot of attention in the past. Even getting a draw with Italy in the 2006 World Cup did not seem to make much of an impression, despite the fact that Italy went on to win the Cup.

That has all changed now. Just a couple of days ago they fought out a tough final with Brazil in the Confederations Cup, adding to their list of recent achievements.

Given a relatively good draw, the U.S. could certainly progress to at least the second stage, if not further. It all depends on how commercially intelligent the FIFA management are when they work out how to set up the groups.

The longer that the U.S. stays in contention, the more revenue it will generate for FIFA and other interested parties. This could be worth billions, but they'll need to do for the U.S. what they did for Spain in 2006. Shouldn't be too hard to arrange!

c. Honduras (to qualify)

Well, this was a genuine surprise. Mexico expected to be in the final three, but instead we have Honduras looking like a contender.

For the benefit of the very young and those with foggy memories, Honduras won the CONCACAF Championship in 1981, and then played some great-looking (but unsuccessful) football in the 1982 World Cup, where they managed to get two draws before being gunned down by Yugoslavia (not literally, of course!).

Having said that, did you hear the warning shot? I'm referring of course, to the performance of Honduras during the 2001 Copa América, in which they played all the way to the semifinal. Along the way, they knocked Brazil out with a 2-0 victory, before being defeated by Colombia just one match shy of the final.

d. Mexico (to qualify)

This is touch and go for the moment. Mexico has dragged its feet this year, and will need to improve sharply if it's going to be ready for another crack at the big time.

Mexico was knocked out in the second stage in 2006, but the team was lucky to make it that far. Angola held them to a 0-0 draw, and Portugal defeated them 2-1. It was only a win over relative underdogs, Iran, that kept them in. It was Argentina that ended the run, although the margin was very close, and considering the quality of the opponent, it was not a bad effort.

The only thing we know at the moment is that they will be playing against Ecuador. If the match is played in Quito, then Mexico's chances are significantly reduced.

Definitely have to consider Mexico as a real outsider for now.

6. CONMEBOL

a. Brazil (over-qualified)

You knew these guys were going to be here, didn't you? There is nothing really that I could say that you would not already know. Brazil is simply the best, always has been, and probably always will be.

Brazil is set to play against Argentina (expect a win or draw), Chile (expect a win), Bolivia (expect a huge win—they have something to prove against Bolivia), and Venezuela (expect a win). If that all works out as I expect, they should end up with 39 points, well clear of any challengers.

We must keep in mind that Brazil has had an extraordinary number of draws recently, and nearly stumbled into another one against South Africa.

b. Chile (to qualify)

These guys are currently riding shotgun. So far they've had wins over Bolivia, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela. Predictably, they got served by both Argentina and Brazil, and they've also suffered losses to Paraguay (who are doing a great job at the moment) and Ecuador. Both matches against Uruguay have ended in a draw.

Chile now has assignments against Venezuela (expect a win), Brazil (expect a loss), Colombia (expect a loss), and Ecuador (expect a win). If that all works out as I expect, they should end up on 32 points.

c. Paraguay (to qualify)

I have never seen Paraguay play as well it's playing at the moment. In recent times they have defeated Brazil by 2-0, the only team to have beaten them in the past 18 matches. They also notched up a 5-1 win against Ecuador, and have held Argentina to a 1-1 draw.

Paraguay are now hovering just below Chile and just above Argentina. The competition at the top is very tight.

Upcoming matches include Bolivia (expect a win), Argentina (expect a loss, unless Argentina are still fizzing), Venezuela (expect a win), and Colombia (strong chance of a win). If all that goes as expected, then Paraguay should end up with 33 points, which could be enough to move them into second place.

d. Argentina (to qualify)

Strange to see Argentina so far down the list. Not sure what has happened to cause such a big reversal in their form. They started out well with good wins over Chile, Venezuela and Bolivia. Then a loss to Colombia was the start of a series of winless matches that was not broken until they picked up a narrow win over Uruguay.

Chile proved too good in their home match against Argentina, and then the Argentinians rallied back with a great 4-0 trouncing of Venezuela. Then came a great shock—Bolivia triumphs by 6-1 (by far the best we have seen from Bolivia recently, and also the worst we have seen from Argentina). Maradona even acknowledged this, saying: "We have to give merit to Bolivia who were better than us in every part of the field."

Maradona was a great player for Argentina, and it was sad to see him fall from grace so dramatically. He has done well to reconstruct himself, and there is no doubting his passion and enthusiasm for Argentinian football. These performances must be raising questions in some people's minds, however, as to whether he is being inspirational enough to the team at present.

Argentina came back to score revenge against Colombia, taking them by 1-0, but were then defeated by Ecuador 2-0.

Future assignments do not look encouraging either. The next match is a home game against Brazil (anything could happen), then they play Paraguay (should win, far from certain), Peru (expect a win), and Uruguay (could win).

Just assuming that they are in good form for these matches, getting all four wins would give them a total of 31 points, which is only going to be enough if the other teams do not perform as well as they are expected to.

Still, Argentina does not need to finish on top here, they just need to hold onto fourth place.

e. Ecuador (to qualify)

It would be great to see Ecuador in another World Cup. They played some entertaining matches last time. Even if they stay in fifth spot, they will still have a chance. It will just mean that they need to defeat Mexico in the playoff.

Best results to date have been wins over Peru, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina. Ecuador has also managed to get draws with Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay.

The worrying problem for Ecuador is that so far in their preliminary matches they have a much better record in home games (their sole away win was against Peru, and that was by a narrow margin). Not that there is anything particularly new in this revelation, but it is relevant because three of Ecuador's scheduled matches are away games.

Assignments include Colombia (expect a loss), Bolivia (possible loss or draw), Uruguay (expect a win), and Chile (expect a loss). If all of these matches go as predicted, Ecuador can expect to pick up another four points, giving them a total of 24.

With Uruguay nipping at Ecuador's heels for the fifth place spot, it will help Ecuador a great deal to exceed my expectations.

Epilogue

Well, that's the end of this four part series. Thanks for your company. I am aware that there are some quite controversial predictions in here, and everyone will have divergent opinions. Please keep in mind that there are still many months to go before the final field is announced, and long range forecasting is always going to be an inexact science.

Feel free to add a comment if you'd like to share your own opinion or predictions on what will happen. Whether your own team manages to stand or fall, hopefully we can all look forward to another exciting and entertaining tournament in South Africa in 2010.

[End of part four]

How the 2010 FIFA World Cup Is Shaping Up (Part Three of Four: July 2009)

Brad Carroll — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:47:31 -0400

This is part three of a four part series. On this page, the main contenders from the European Confederation are discussed. To see predictions for the other confederations, please use the links in the following table of contents.

Contents
Part One - Africa Part Two - Asia and Oceania Part Three - Europe (this page) Part Four - The Americas

4. UEFA

a. Denmark and/or Hungary (to qualify)

Denmark is looking lean and mean to win this qualification round, and Hungary looks...well...hungry for success. With more than half the matches already played in the round, the early favorites Portugal and Sweden are struggling to get into contention.

Denmark looks to has a great chance of retaining the lead. They have won five of the six matches, and obtained a draw in the other. They are three points clear of Hungary and have a very healthy goal ratio of 13:2.

The next match for Denmark is a tough one, as it faces Portugal. But the match will take place in Copenhagen, which may help their chances. Even if they don't get through that match without a problem, their next opponent will be Albania. That match should supply another win for Denmark, and the remaining matches are both home games against Sweden and Hungary.

Winning these matches will only be necessary if the other teams also get wins. Otherwise it is sufficient to simply not lose any matches.

Hungary is only one win behind the leaders, but they still have to face Portugal twice, plus there will be a match against Sweden and Denmark. Its path is more difficult, but achievable if Denmark stumbles too many times.

Portugal has a lot of ground to make up, and would need to win at least three of its remaining matches, while also hoping that Denmark does not win any more matches. If Hungary wins two matches, it will also make things very difficult for Portugal.

It's not impossible, but the Portuguese team will have a lot of pressure throughout the rest of the remaining matches, and they only have to lose one match to be out of contention for the top spot unless Denmark fails to win a single match (unlikely) or Hungary fails to win twice.

Sweden is level with Portugal on points, but their goal ratio is 6:2 compared with 8:4 (strange, considering that Portugal is regarded as a strong defensive team and Sweden is regarded as an attacking team). Sweden's path is just as difficult, if not more so.

b. Greece or Switzerland (to qualify).

One of these two should make it through, but I don't think both will, unless Round Two is kind to them. They have had the good fortune to be drawn together in a very weak group, so each is helping the other to survive in a strange kind of symbiosis.

The two teams are dead level on points, with Greece being ahead due to their better goal ratio. I believe Greece has the edge here. Switzerland can struggle at times.

Nipping at the heels of the leaders is Latvia who have an excellent chance of knocking at least one of them off the perch, but they can't afford to lose any more games, and must win at least two, while hoping their opponents do not win. They are not in a great position, but it is certainly not over for them yet.

Israel is too far behind. To catch up they would need to win at least three matches and this does not seem very likely. They would also need for the other teams ahead of them not to make any upward progress. If Israel only wins two matches, then they cannot get to the top position no matter what else happens.

Moldova of course, is already out of contention. Luxembourg would need an absolute miracle.

c. Slovakia (to qualify)

I was tempted to just chicken out of this one and put "anyone from Group Three except San Marino", but it looks like Slovakia should be able to hold on here. Poland is a big danger, and Northern Ireland are amazingly in second place and trailing by just two points.

This could be a big year for Northern Ireland if they can keep it going and hold off the challenge from Poland.

Czech Republic and Slovenia are just behind Poland on eight points each. Both are good enough to score wins in this group, but they will need a ton of luck to make it through to qualification.

It would take a minimum of four straight wins and for all of the higher teams to draw against each other or lose to San Marino. It is putting it mildly to say that such circumstances would be very difficult to arrange.

d. Germany and Russia (to qualify)

Hard to imagine either of these teams failing to get through. Whoever finishes second in this group should be able to win a spot in Round Two. Both teams are two wins ahead of the next contender, Finland, and they have much better goal ratios.

The only possible way for Finland to get past one of these teams is in the very unlikely event that Germany loses a match against Azerbaijan, or that Russia loses to Azerbaijan, Wales, or Liechtenstein.

If neither of these things happen, then the outcome of Germany v. Russia has no effect on Finland's chances and even its match against Germany won't make a difference. The only change that the game can make, unless the unexpected happens (as described above), is to allow Russia to move into first place.

None of the remaining teams in this group can qualify, no matter what the outcome of any matches are (unless Germany and Russia fail to win a single match, and Wales wins all their own matches, and Finland does not win all of their matches).

The calculations behind these predictions are too complex to include here, so I will just have to ask you to trust that I have crunched the numbers. It has taken me 13 hours just to get this far into my analysis, so I'm not skimping here!

e. Spain (to qualify)

Unless Spain fails to win at least two of its four remaining matches and Bosnia-Herzegovina win all of their remaining matches, there is no way for Spain to be knocked out of the top spot.

Provided that Spain wins two matches, it will take its tally from 18 to 24, a target that can only be reached by Bosnia-Herzegovina at 12 points (and with four more wins they would also be on 24 points). Even then, they need to make up the difference in the goal ratio in order to move ahead of Spain.

Turkey remains in contention, currently in third place on eight points. They can only get into first place in the unlikely event that Spain does not win any more than one match and Turkey wins every match (four wins would take their total to 22, putting them one ahead of Spain if that team only win one match).

Second place is a more viable option for Turkey and their prospects are boosted by the fact that they already have their hardest matches behind them. They are the only team that does not face Spain in the matches that are left.

The math here is very simple. If Bosnia-Herzegovina does not win any more matches, then Turkey only needs to win two in order to pull ahead of them. If Bosnia-Herzegovina wins one match, Turkey will need to win three. And if Bosnia-Herzegovina wins more than one match then, to have any hope at all, Turkey must win all four.

Belgium is in a similar position to Turkey but disadvantaged, firstly because they will have to play against Spain, and secondly because they are trailing by one further point.

f. England (to qualify)

England exited from the 2006 World Cup after failing to break down the Portuguese defense in the third Quarterfinal match. They are firmly on track for another tilt, and only need to beat one of their three remaining opponents to make sure they get the chance.

A solitary win would lift England's total from 21 points to 24, and since all the other contenders can only achieve a maximum score of 23 points, England would then be certain of qualification.

If England does not win any more matches, then either Croatia or Ukraine (or both) can get ahead by winning all four of their matches. Belarus also would need to win at least four matches out of the five they have remaining. In doing so, they would knock both Ukraine and Croatia out of contention for a place.

If Belarus wins four matches, then their total points would be level with England's at 21 and the decision would come down to the goal ratio. But England seems perfectly safe as things stand at the moment.

In fact, it is not really necessary at all for England to win. All they have to do is not lose any matches. Three draw results would also bring their total to the magic number 24, and as a consequence this would be a big help to Belarus in their quest for second place because it would mean that both Ukraine and Croatia could then only obtain a maximum of 21, while the maximum possible score for Belarus would be 22.

Currently, the chaser with the best chance to graduate is Ukraine, as they have two upcoming matches against Andorra, but Croatia and Belarus must play against each other twice before taking on England and Kazakhstan.

g. Serbia and/or France (to qualify)

Serbia has a good lead in Group Seven. They are eight points clear of France and have a very healthy goal ratio of 15:5, which none of the other teams are even close to.

In the 2006 World Cup, I wrote on my forecast site that I did not think much of Serbia's chances, mainly due to its poor performance in the qualifying rounds. That prediction turned out to be true, as they lost all three of their Round 1 matches and failed to progress any further in the competition.

Their last World Cup match against Côte d'Ivoire saw a big improvement, with the Serbian team scoring two goals in the first half. Côte d'Ivoire did to Serbia what Brazil did to the U.S. in the Confederations Cup, staging a second half comeback to win by 3-2.

Serbia has three fairly easy assignments ahead of them. Home games against France and Romania—which they are expected to win—followed by an away game against Lithuania. Thus, I believe they will pick up at least another six points, bringing their final total to a minimum of 24.

France, in theory can top this score by one point, but in order to do so they must defeat Serbia. They are the only team apart from Serbia that still has the potential to score more than 20 points.

Lithuania are in third place with nine points, but can only score another nine, and this would only help them to equal Serbia's current score. Therefore, only if Serbia loses all of its remaining games does Lithuania has any chance at all, and even then they would need to be ahead on the goal ratio.

Austria and Romania, each with seven points and four matches left to play, are able to score a maximum total of 19. To stay clear of these threats, Serbia only needs to win one match (which would give them 21).

If Serbia can manage two wins and a draw, then even France can't catch them. France still has the potential to do some serious damage, and with two scheduled matches against the Faroe Islands, they should be able to bring their total up to at least 16 points, but are expected to do a lot better than that.

Serbia and France are the two most likely to take out the quinella here.

h. Italy (to qualify)

Italy could be expected to be doing a little better than this. Draws with Ireland and Bulgaria have prevented Italy from making a clean sweep. Ireland now sits just one point behind the "World Champions".

Ireland has a very good chance to pick up at least another six points from their three remaining matches, which would give them a total of 19, and a win or draw over Italy would see them looking very good indeed.

Italy, however, is aleady a point ahead and have four matches left to play, so in theory they should still finish on top. They should have at least six points coming to them, if not many more.

But the Irish should not abandon hope! It's still possible that Italy will stumble, or that somehow Ireland can even pick up the full nine points available to them. Unlikely, but not impossible. Should Ireland only make into second place, however, its prospects of qualifying diminish rapidly.

The only other team in this group with any sort of a chance is Bulgaria. Bulgaria's prospects can be summed up by the simple fact that if either Italy or Ireland wins two more matches, then Bulgaria cannot finish on top. Also, if Ireland wins just one match, Bulgaria will need to win three just to get ahead of Ireland.

It is not totally impossible for Cyprus, Montenegro, or Georgia to qualify in theory, but it is totally impossible in reality, so not really worth considering.

i. Netherlands (qualified)

There is not much to be said about the final group. The Netherlands, clear of the nearest competition by a full 14 points, have already qualified. All that is left for Scotland, Macedonia, Iceland, and Norway to fight for is second place, but even if they make it that far, it is highly unlikely for any of these teams to make further progress.

Holland showed incredible form in Euro 2008, while not at all showing their best in the 2006 World Cup. They've been given a very easy ride in this year, and hopefully it hasn't spoiled them.

This team currently looks like the most likely to be standing opposite Brazil on the day of the World Cup Final.

[End of part three. Please click here to continue.]

How The 2010 FIFA World Cup Is Shaping Up (Part 2 Of 4: July 2009)

Brad Carroll — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:40:35 -0400

Now that the Confederations Cup is safely tucked away in Brazil, we can once again turn our attention to the real contest. The qualifying rounds for the 2010 FIFA World Cup are still being played out, but here is a brief run-down on who are shaping up as the likely field and what we can probably expect to see.

This is part two of a four part series. On this page, the main contenders from the Asian Confederation are discussed. To see predictions for the other confederations, please use the links in the following table of contents.

Contents
Part One - Africa Part Two - Asia and Oceania (this page) Part Three - Europe Part Four - The Americas

2. AFC

a. Australia (qualified)

The Australians thrived under the guidance of Guus Hiddink to qualify for the 2006 World Cup, breaking a 32 year drought. Once they made it in, they stunned the critics with their gritty determination that helped them to stage some dramatic upsets.

Trailing to Japan by one goal after 84 minutes in their opening match, Tim Cahill came onto the field as a substitute and almost immediately scored Australia's first ever World Cup goal, levelling the score. Amazingly in the 89th minute he struck again, with a pinball style effort that had the Japanese goal keeper (Kawaguchi) completely stumped.

Three minutes later John Aloisi slotted in the third goal for Australia, helping his team to stage one of the most thrilling comebacks ever witnessed in a World Cup match, the only time in history that any team has scored three goals from the 84th minute.

They then managed to shut Brazil out for 49 minutes, but eventually were worn down and lost the match by two goals. This effort was followed by a 2-2 draw with Croatia, enabling Australia to make it through to the R16 on points.

Australia's exit from the World Cup was marred by controversy, with a questionable penalty awarded to Italy (who subsequently went on to win the Cup) with only six seconds remaining on the clock. Video evidence appears to show that Fabio Grosso took a dive, and while the Australians were unlikely to make it through to the Quarter Finals, they did not deserve to go out in this unpalatable fashion.

b. Japan (qualified)

Former Brazilian superstar Zico took over command of the Japanese team from Philippe Troussier, helping them to qualify for a third successive World Cup bid in 2006. Despite having such a talented coach, their best result was a 0-0 draw with Croatia, and they failed to make it into the R16.

Now they have qualified again (second in Group 1, behind Australia), this time under the guidance of Japanese coach Takeshi Okada, who was appointed when Ivan Osim had to retire due to health reasons.

Japan are still a force within the Asian Confederation, but they are expected to struggle in this class. It is worth remembering that they progressed into the second stage in 2002 after some excellent performances against Belgium (2-2), Russia (1-0), and Tunisia (2-0).

But that eight years is a big gap, their showing in 2006 was not great, and they only finished second in their qualifying round. Definitely an outsider at the moment.

c. South Korea (qualified)

South Korea have qualified for their eighth attempt at the World Cup after finishing at the top of Group 2, the only team in that group to remain undefeated after eight matches in Round 4.

The best standing they have achieved in previous World Cups was fourth in 2002, as the host nation. In 2006 they defeated Togo 2-1, then achieved a 1-1 draw with France (who were the eventual tournament runners-up). Despite this good start, a subsequent loss to Switzerland put them behind France by a margin of only one point. France went on to the next round, while South Korea were sent home.

With luck in the draw, South Korea have the potential to get through to the second round, but their current game standard is roughly equivalent to that of Japan, and consequently also considered an outsider in this competition.

d. North Korea (qualified)

This is the first time North Korea has qualified for a World Cup since their effort to reach the Quarter Finals in 1966. Of course that achievement has absolutely nothing to do with the current team.

North Korea finished in second place of the Group 2 table, with a record of 3-3-2 from eight matches, and a goal ratio of 5:12 (which is not very good). What the North Koreans may lack in football skill, they more than make up for with patriotism and aggression.

They are highly unlikely to get through to the next stage.

e. Saudi Arabia (to qualify)

Saudi Arabia finished third in Group 2 and should be able to defeat Bahrain in their playoff decider. After getting through that match, they will not find a strong opponent in New Zealand and are expected to secure their berth in their fifth World Cup attempt.

From their previous attempts, Saudi Arabia have only made it past the first stage once, in 1994, when they recorded narrow victories over Morocco and Belgium. These were their only World Cup match wins, and their best other efforts were 2-2 draws with South Africa (1998) and Tunisia (2006).

Although they do not usually do well in World Cup competition, they always provide an entertaining match, and whenever they fail to qualify they will be sorely missed.

3. OFC

a. New Zealand (to qualify)

This is an easy one. As expected, New Zealand finished at the top of the OFC table, but will now have to face either Saudi Arabia or Bahrain in a playoff to decide who will go through to the World Cup. New Zealand are not expected to prevail, but if they do, then they are not expected to do any better at the World Cup than they did in the Confederations Cup. In other words, they have no chance.

[End of part two. Please click here to continue.]

How The 2010 FIFA World Cup Is Shaping Up (Part 1 Of 4: July 2009)

Brad Carroll — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:33:14 -0400

Now that the Confederations Cup is safely tucked away in Brazil, we can once again turn our attention to the real contest. The qualifying rounds for the 2010 FIFA World Cup are still being played out, but here is a brief run-down on who are shaping up as the likely field and what we can probably expect to see.

This is part one of a four part series. On this page, the main contenders from the African Confederation are discussed. To see predictions for the other confederations, please use the links in the following table of contents.

Contents
Part One - Africa (this page) Part Two - Asia and Oceania Part Three - Europe Part Four - The Americas

1. CAF

a. South Africa (qualified as host)

As the host nation, South Africa are the only team not required to qualify through the playoff system. The world has been stunned by their big improvement in the last two matches they played in the Confederations Cup against two of the biggest teams in world football (Brazil and Spain).

If they can hold onto that form, then South Africa's prospects are looking much brighter than they were just a few days ago. Based on their recent showings, they could possibly qualify for R16, but to progress beyond that will require consistency and perhaps a bit of luck with the draw.

The passionate support from the home crowd should help to boost their confidence, but it must be remembered that it could also place a lot of pressure on their shoulders. They did not let the pressure get to them in the match against Spain, so it's unlikely that they will get jittery in the early stages.

b. Gabon or Cameroon (to qualify)

Gabon currently are sitting in first place in the Group A table, and are in with an excellent chance of success in their bid to qualify for the first time. Ironically it is the team currently in last place that has the best chance of knocking Gabon off their perch.

Cameroon have yet to post a win in Round 4, but they had an excellent record in Round 3 and have a chance to bounce back. In order to overtake Gabon, however, they will need to win at least one of the two matches in September. They then need to hope for Gabon not to defeat Morocco and Togo for a second time in this round.

If Gabon win both matches against Cameroon, or get a draw in both matches, and then win any of the remaining ones, then Cameroon's hopes are almost sunk.

Cameroon should not be underestimated, because they still have the potential to win all four of their remaining matches, but even if they do manage to do this, Gabon only need to win two in order to ensure they remain on top.

c. Nigeria or Tunisia (to qualify)

Tunisia are currently at the top of the Group B table, but I am tipping that Nigeria will steal the qualification out from under the Tunisian's noses. Both teams have a proud tradition in the World Cup (Tunisia finished 9th in 1978 and have qualified for the past three World Cups, while Nigeria finished 9th in 1994 and have qualified three times).

My confidence in Nigeria is based on their better record in Round 3. The Nigerians should be able to beat Mozambique and Kenya, which means if they at least manage a draw against Tunisia and then Tunisia subsequently lose either of their remaining matches, Nigeria will come out on top.

If Nigeria can beat Tunisia then the deal is sealed, so that match on September 6th is of the utmost importance, and because it is a home game for Nigeria their prospects look a little brighter.

d. Algeria (to qualify)

This is one of the hardest groups to pick a winner from, but Algeria is the only team in Group C that has not lost a game in Round 4.

Egypt were very impressive in Round 3 and played a great match against Brazil in the Confederations Cup. Even their shock loss to the US was not the disgrace that many people labeled it as, since that team eventually were runners-up to Brazil in a closely contested final.

With only one point from three matches, however, Egypt has a huge amount of ground to make up, especially since their goal ratio is currently at 2:4.

Rwanda are also trailing with only one point, but are ahead of Egypt in the tables because their 0:1 goal ratio is a smaller deficit. Their prospects for qualification do not look at all bright.

Zambia are currently in the best position to push Algeria out, as they have four points and a goal ratio of 2:3. They will find it hard to get past Algeria, however, who have seven points, and a ratio of 5:1, with three matches left to play.

e. Ghana (to qualify)

Ghana are undefeated in Round 4 after three matches and look almost certain to qualify for the second successive time. In 2006 they made it through to the R16 thanks to excellent wins over the Czech Republic (2-0) and USA (2-1). They then had the misfortune to be drawn against Brazil immediately after they moved up to the next level. With better luck in the draw, they could again be a contender to make the Quarter Finals.

f. Côte d'Ivoire (to qualify)

Côte d'Ivoire (or "The Ivory Coast") are the leaders of Group E, and amazingly their strongest rivals at the moment are Burkina Faso. Côte d'Ivoire has nine points and a goal ratio of 10:3, while Burkina Faso is in second place with six points and a ratio of 5:4.

Côte d'Ivoire had a horror draw in in the first round of the 2006 World Cup, but performed well scoring goals against Argentina and the Netherlands, and beating Serbia and Montenegro 3-2 after trailing in the first half.

[End of part one. Please click here to continue.]

Confederations Cup Final: Triumph Veiled in Tragedy

Brad Carroll — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 08:13:38 -0400

Brazilian fans have every reason to smile today, but even they would probably not have been too disappointed to see the United States finally win a major title.

For fans of the US team, this was a match that took them to the heights of joy and the depths of despair in a way that no soccer game has ever done before.

But hidden inside the tragedy of this loss, there is also a glimmer of triumph. The United States did, after all, give the Brazilians something to chase.

To put Brazil down by two goals before half time, while simultaneously shutting them out, is a very rare achievement indeed.

In the end, of course, the better team won. This is no more than anybody expected, but still for a moment it was tempting to forget history and dare to dream.

Like so many teams that have faced Brazil in previous finals, the hopes and dreams were dashed upon the rocks to sink into oblivion.

Yet now is not a time to go into mourning, for Americans can look forward to the future with hope and optimism.

There is no shame in losing to Brazil; they are not considered to be the best team in the world for no reason. Over many decades, since at least the reign of Vincente Feola as national coach (a man so relaxed about his team's ability he would even fall asleep during matches!), Brazil has been consistently amongst the top five teams.

From 92 World Cup matches, Brazil have lost just 14 of them, and have been World Champion five times from 18 attempts. They have also won three of their six Confederations Cup attempts, and finished second to Mexico in 1999.

The United States has now faced Brazil 13 times, and have lost 11 times. Without a doubt, even taking into account the one time that the US has beaten Brazil, this Confederations Cup final was the strongest game they have ever played against the team universally regarded as the giants of world football.

The game started normally enough. A whistle was blown, the ball was kicked off, and two groups of men ran around chasing after it. Then suddenly the standard script wasn't being followed any more.

It was Clint Dempsey, a player from the American team, who fired the first shot, and this after only two minutes of play.

It was a sign that the Americans were going to try and emulate the Egyptian tactic of catching Brazil on the hop, running the ball down the field quickly before their opponents even had a chance to realize what had happened.

But, as the saying goes, "haste makes waste." In his rush to deliver an unexpected surprise to the Brazilian team, he didn't take enough time to aim his kick and it went astray.

With the ball back in play, Maicon took it out to the right flank and sent it on to Kaka, who brought it back into the American danger zone, but Onyewu did his little teleport trick and opted to put the ball over the side line.

Maicon took the ball again and Jay Demerit deflected it over his own backline to give the Brazilians an opportunity for a corner kick. The corner was not well executed and Jozy Altidore was able to use his head to clear the ball from danger.

Moments later Maicon had another go, and this time it was Dempsey who conceded the corner kick. Kaka managed to get his head under it, but couldn't get a solid contact, sending the ball wide of the target.

An effort from André Santos hit the post. Had that shot been just a fraction more accurate, it could have changed everything.

Over to Jonathan Spector, who ran the ball down the Brazilians' right flank to find Dempsey clear of any threatening defenders, and Dempsey made the most of the opportunity, booting the ball toward the goal. Julio Cesar could not reach it in time, perhaps because he was weighed down by all the sweaters he was wearing.

Déjà vu. Just hours earlier the other underdog team, South Africa, had struck the first blow against Spain. Now here was the US team sending a similar message to Brazil: "We are here to play, and we're playing to win!"

The Brazilians took notice. A flurry of shots from Maicon, Robinho and Felipe Melo were unleashed at the American goal, but Tim Howard was able to deflect them all.

Somewhere in the middle of all this action, Carlos Bocanegra earned himself a yellow card when he decided to give Kaka a little cuddle.

The booking is hard to understand, because it was outstanding sportsmanship for him to congratulate his opponent before the match was even half over.

Onyewu and Demerit earned their stripes too, keeping the worst of the Brazilian offensive onslaught under control.

Maicon's unsuccessful attempt resulted in yet another corner kick for Brazil, with Robinho making a mess of it, turning over possession to the American side.

Donovan and Davies were the dynamic duo here, putting on a bit of a sprint and flicking the ball to each other in good fashion. Landon Donovan absolutely hammered it from close quarters, Cesar again being caught short.

This was literally the shot that was heard (or at least seen) around the world. Who could believe it? The US had scored two power-goals in the first half, with the Brazilians so far unable to reply. It's a wonder Bob Bradley wasn't seen doing cartwheels on the sideline!

Howard starred again with a good save against an attempt from André Santos, who had fired the shot with great accuracy from the far left side of the box.

Luis Fabiano then goofed twice, missing with an easy shot and then messing up what should have been a very opportunistic free kick. Perhaps this was an indication that the pressure was beginning to have an effect on Brazil.

A bit of to-and-fro, with the ball coming back to Robinho on the left of the box. Some nifty footwork here from Robinho as he outfoxes Spector, curving a nice strong shot from a tricky angle, but to no avail as Howard manages yet again to stop the ball from doing any damage.

During the last few minutes of the half Onyewu stuck to his task, playing a major role in frustrating many of the Brazilian advances.

Unless somebody blabs, we shall never know just what it was that Dunga said to his jolted team during the break to revive their morale. Whatever it was, it did the trick, as Brazil came back onto the field showing none of the strain they had endured during the first half.

Right from the moment of the kickoff they were looking sharp and ready. This was not a team who were ready to go belly up!

Inside the first minute Maicon had edged a pretty little kick to Fabiano who employed great control and precision, taking just enough time to set up the shot.

This came in the shape of a low, fast, and deadly accurate kick that Howard had no chance of stopping. It was a classic goal, characteristic of Brazil, and a much better display than they had put on in the first half.

This also marked the first serious mistake from the American defenders. Still floating on the air of success from the first half and with confidence sky-high, they had momentarily let their guard down.

Fabiano had been able to slip through the defenses and was unpressured. He could take all the time he needed. You simply cannot give a Brazilian player such a gift and expect it not to come at great cost to you.

It was a major turning point. Brazil had regained confidence and the Americans were beginning to lose it. Perhaps more than anything the second half was memorable for the huge number of free kicks that were given away, some of them needlessly.

With the US still unable to regain ground, Gilberto Silva and Lúcio fired off shots in quick succession following a corner, neither player doing damage, but the slow reactions from the American players were a bit worrying at this point.

Brazil was now clearly dominating the play and it looked like it was just a matter of time before the scores would be leveled.

It very nearly happened on the stroke of the hour, as Brazil were robbed of a goal that was rightfully theirs, Howard fumbling a save but the referee failing to notice that the ball had traveled across the line.

Brazil made many more rushes during the next few minutes, with Onyewu doing most of the work in shutting them down.

A brief moment of respite for the US team as Davies gains possession and gets the ball over to Donovan, but the shot is blocked by Cesar. Clark takes the ball and threads it through the defense, but Dempsey can't convert and it goes to a corner which proves fruitless.

Dunga now apparently decides to break his resolution not to substitute players, so Elano and Alves come onto the field in place of Santos and Ramires.

Almost immediately, they make their presence felt, but the long stretch on the bench has meant they are not warmed up enough to cause any trouble.

The rhythm of the game is beginning to change now. Everything has slowed down and there is a sense that the Brazilians are controlling the play. The Americans are still (unfairly) ahead by a goal, but those earlier efforts have come at a cost.

It reminded me of Lion Heart's run in the 2004 Kentucky Derby; it is really difficult to break from the gate with that kind of furious tempo and hope to sustain it indefinitely. Eventually, something's gotta give.

Howard puts a good stop on a shot from Fabiano who has for once managed to slip past the ever-vigilant Onyewu. Alves drills a miss from the left side of the box, and then it is Melo's turn to shoot it wide.

They could be doing a little better, the shots are too rushed. Melo probably should not have taken the shot but he had nobody to send it to.

Kaka now comes down the left with as good an impersonation of Usain Bolt as I have seen, leaving Spector in his wake, puffing like a locomotive engine.

Clearly, it is the beginning of the end for the American team who have done so well to set up the early pace.

Today, the track is favoring the back-runners, as we saw in the earlier game between Spain and South Africa. The stayers have the edge over the squibs.

Kaka doesn't set the ball perfectly but it lands at Robinho's feet, who duly slams it into the bar. Fabiano catches the rebound with his head and it goes over the line and into the net, levelling the score.

If that theory about a butterfly flapping its wings in the rainforest is correct, then the collective groan that went up all across the United States at that moment is sure to have caused an avalanche somewhere.

It was an opportuntity to gain some empathic insight into how the South Africans were feeling. But this was even worse.

Nothing can describe that sinking feeling that settles in your gut when you realize that a team has simply run itself into the ground and will need to rely on pure luck to get back in front.

The sight of Jonathan Spector huffing, puffing, fading away behind Kaka said it all. The US team was virtually spent, with at least 17 minutes left on the clock.

Still they fought on. Bob Bradley decided to bring Altidore and Feilhaber off the ground (why not Spector?), putting in Bornstein and Kljestan to take their place. It's worth mentioning at this point that Benny Feilhaber had thus far given a good account of himself as a replacement for Michael Bradley, who had to sit out this match due to suspension.

Kaka looked set to menace again, but his shot went wide. Perhaps his little sprint had taken a bit of his edge off too. A little time passes, then Donovan gives the ball a little too gently to Cesar, who has no trouble in collecting it.

Bradley's decision to bring on Bornstein nearly pays off when, with his fresh legs and untroubled lungs, he gets the ball a medium distance out from goal, tries to cross it to Dempsey but gets blocked, then regains possession, only to put in a panicky shot that is way off target.

Now Kaka and Robinho are singing the same familiar duet in the American zone, but Robinho places his shot too high.

Then it was the US team's turn to get robbed as Davies is roughed up in the penalty area but does not receive his due. Did this referee miss an appointment with his optometrist? This is his second major mistake inside 45 minutes!

Back to the play and the Brazilians have yet again taken control. The ball comes back to Howard's end*, courtesy of Alves and Fabiano. They don't put it through, but DeMerit makes a good block that unfortunately goes on to concede a corner.

Eleano takes the corner kick and it is a massive boot that goes clear across the face of the goal, and Lúcio gets his head under the ball sending it into the net. One disaster after another for the Americans! How could things get any worse than this?

Taking a lesson from the South African match, the US team keep plugging away. They are not about to give up too easily, as there are still a few minutes left in which to hope for a miracle.

Ricardo Clark is brought off the ground, with Conor Casey coming on to replace him. Lúcio concedes a corner to the opposition and Donovan takes it. It is a very good kick and Onyewu gets under it, but his header goes too high. Onyewu's disappointment is plain to see, but it was a good attempt.

Kaka and Alves again threaten with shots, but they are not good ones. We go into injury time and the Brazilians very smartly decide to turn it into a game of keepings-off.

The strategy works and the Americans cannot effectively regain possession. Brazil has squeezed over the line, coming back from a two-goal deficit to win by one.

Interestingly, it is the same scoreline that we saw in Spain vs. South Africa, 3-2. This game has been every bit as intense, if not more so.

If it was any other team that had done this, we'd be stunned. Because this was Brazil, nobody is going to be floored by the result. It's almost expected that they will do something extraordinary, and when they do, it is never considered a big deal.

It is only on the occasions when they don't seem to be pulling their weight, such as in their match against South Africa, that anybody makes a fuss. Such is the burden of being great.

Bob Bradley has done a remarkable job of reinventing his team. Tactics have improved and while their style of play could never be described as graceful or elegant, they are gaining skills and experience with each match.

No doubt the EPL experience of Tim Howard (Manchester Utd and Everton), Oguchi Onyewu (Newcastle), and Fulham team mates Carlos Bocanegra and Clint Dempsey is helping the team as well, since there could be no better learning environment than the top division of English soccer.

Brazil won today because they outlasted their opponent. The clever strategy of shuffling the ball around at the end was also brilliant, and shows the benefit of experience.

They were not about to make the same mistake that Spain did and allow the opportunity of a last-second goal. Once it was clear that they could win, they made sure of it.

Now we can look forward to the World Cup and see what the US team will produce. They will have gained confidence from their performances against Egypt, Spain, and now Brazil.

Now that they have proved to themselves that they can play a good game of soccer, and now that they have seen that even giants can stumble, further improvement can be expected.

Time now for a new dream.

* Sorry for making all these silly little word play jokes throughout the story. It was just too much of a temptation to resist.

Confederations Cup Final: South African Form Boosts US Hopes

Brad Carroll — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:59:25 -0400

The fact that South Africa managed to hold their form against Spain adds more substance to the meaning of the less-than-perfect performance from Brazil when they played against South Africa in the second semifinal match.

Still expected to face an uphill battle in their bid to win their first major non-regional international title, the United States team can draw some encouragement and inspiration from the form shown in the third-place playoff game.

Confederations Cup: South Africa Put Up a Strong Fight Against Spain

Brad Carroll — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 11:32:53 -0400

For the second time in a row, South Africa have put in a determined effort against a seemingly stronger opponent. This time, it almost paid off.

I must admit that I did not think they had the attacking strength to make a real match of it, and that Spain would not have a difficult time in winning. Like many others, I was in for a surprise.

A strong first half from the South-African team looked certain to set them on the path to victory. The main difference here was a much more determined attacking effort than they had shown in the previous game, with five shots in the half, all on-target.

Spain only managed one shot, courtesy of David Villa. This came very early in the match, just a few minutes after the kick off, and it was well-saved by Itumeleng Khune.

The Spaniards regrouped in the second half and showed much better form, but still, despite taking many more shots than the South Africans, they could not get the ball into the net.

Meanwhile, the South African team were struggling to gain possession, and no shots were being fired at their end. But then, in the 73rd minute, an excellent pass from Siphiwe Tshabalala connected with Katlego Mphela who put it through to put the first score on the board.

Pandemonium! South Africa were actually ahead! This was incredible stuff, and the game had suddenly become intensely interesting. Spain were now looking straight down the barrel of potentially losing a second straight match to a team that nearly everyone thought would be easily contained.

It's true that by this point the South Africans had only fired a single shot in the second half, but if that shot connects and does the job, then that is what counts.

Unfortunately, that looked like it would be South Africa's last opportunity to make Iker Casillas jump. From that point on, with less than 15 minutes left on the clock, the Spaniards were desperate to prevent any similar incidents.

Bernard Parker tried to break through the line for another attempt, but was ruled offside. The desperation of the Spanish team was beginning to show when Raúl Albiol was carded for his not-too-gentle treatment of Tsepo Peter Masilela, giving away a free kick and losing even more precious time.

And then, suddenly, for South Africa the fairytale came to an end. Daniel Güiza found himself with the ball inside the penalty box and used the opportunity to level the score.

The agony for the South Africans at this moment must have been immense, but still they could cling to the hope of salvaging a draw, or maybe getting another chance to score themselves, even with under five minutes left to play.

But that hope was soon shattered as South Africa was dealt yet another punishing blow by Daniel Güiza less than a minute later, this time with a long kick from the left flank that Khune could not manage to stop.

It looked like there was no coming back from this point, but suddenly there was more drama at the last moment. Katlego Mphela managed to catch Casillas by surprise and took the game into extra time with his equalizer.

Xavi Alonso came to the rescue of Spain, converting a free kick after Kagisho Evidence Dikgacoi committed a foul against Llorente. The final score was 3-2, with Spain once again victorious.

Both teams must have learned some valuable lessons from this match. Most importantly, the promising start from South Africa in the early part of the game must give them some encouragement as they prepare for their much bigger assignment next year.

Confederations Cup Final: Slim Hope For US To Beat Brazil

Brad Carroll — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 17:53:32 -0400

The 2009 Confederations Cup has, as usual, been a roller coaster ride of triumph and despair. Before the competition started, almost everyone would have expected to see Brazil make the final. Very few would have expected the US to get there.

The US team has really improved and many people have underestimated its ability. Of its last 15 serious international matches, it has won 11. Even though most of the teams they played against in those matches are not considered to be top quality, it is still impressive form.

So far at the Confederations Cup, the United States has played four matches, winning two and losing two. Brazil, on the other hand, remain the only team not to have suffered a loss.

The American tactical game has improved greatly, as demonstrated by their victories over Egypt and Spain. The goal scored against Italy came from a penalty, and they lost that match, but it must be considered that Ricardo Clark was red-carded well before the end of the first half and the result may have been much better if this had not happened.

But as encouraging as these signs are, we must now consider the opposition that they will face in their bid to win the tournament.

The Brazilian team has not recently been playing to the standard that most people have come to expect, but it still has an unblemished record at the Confederations Cup this year. Only one team has managed to score against them (Egypt), and it has, as you may expect, scored more goals than any other team (11).

Their tournament goal average is 2.75 compared with only 1.50 for the Americans. In their past 18 international matches, they have only lost once (to Paraguay by two goals in an away match). In 12 of those matches they achieved a clean sheet result.

But uncharacteristically they scored fewer than two goals in seven of those matches, and had six draws (four of them scoreless). Of course this must be offset by the fact that seven other matches were won by a margin of three or more goals.

Their overall ratio of Goals For and Against is 35:9 (from 18). For comparison, the United States has a ratio of 31:14 (from 15), but keep in mind that the standard of competition in the CONMEBOL region is generally considered to be stronger than CONCACAF.

More specifically in the Confederations Cup the ratios are 11:3 compared to 6:6. Three of the goals scored against the US were kicked by Brazilians.

The tactics employed by the US team in their victory over Spain are unlikely to work against Brazil. The Americans will have to try something different because the Brazilians do not mind if you run at them, in fact they thrive on that.

The Brazilians are very accurate with their kicking and this enables them to set up long passes and force their opponents to chase, and of course their ability to convert corner kicks and score long range goals is legendary.

If anyone can stand up to them, Tim Howard is the man. He has managed to keep a clean sheet in nine of the past 15 internationals (60 percent), and the only teams to have scored more than two goals against him in a single match are Brazil, Italy and Costa Rica.

Of course it is the fact that Brazil is one of those teams that managed to get the ball past him that is a major concern. He has managed to stop most of the other teams he has played against, but he could not stop Brazil the other day.

Some small amount of encouragement can be drawn from the fact that Brazil did not show up well against South Africa in their semifinal clash, but history has shown that Brazil can run hot and cold, seeming to be in poor form one day and then bouncing back to their most devastating in the next match.

So, all things considered, the US only has a slim hope against Brazil, but this is better than none at all. All that this team need is to hope Brazil can be caught on an off day, when they are running cold. Then, if the US can muster a good enough attack, they need to get the ball past Julio Cesar.

So far the team that has done the best job of doing just that is Egypt, so I expect Bob Bradley will try a similar style of play for his team. We should see a lot of fast, aggressive passing combined with a concentrated effort to not allow the Brazilians an opportunity to relax and push the ball around as they would like to.

In the end, it probably will not be enough, but we have about 90 minutes to find out. Don't miss it!

Prediction: Brazil will win again, but probably not by such a large margin this time.

Confederations Cup Spain-South Africa: Third Place Contest No Contest

Brad Carroll — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 18:58:41 -0400

Recently I have been accused of being disrespectful in my comments regarding the South African team. I don't really agree with that view, because in my opinion I have always given them praise where it is due.

Unfortunately, I am undoubtedly about to make a whole lot of people angry all over again. I'd really rather not, but I don't have a choice.

Well, I suppose I could always not write anything at all, but that would be giving in to pressure, and I'm too stubborn to let myself be intimidated by a misguided minority.

In my articles I always try to entertain my readers, but I draw the line at merely saying what people want to hear. Whatever else may be said (and believe me, a lot has been said) about my work, it is always honest and I don't pull any punches.

So, sadly, I must once again predict that South Africa will be beaten. I don't say this with any measure of scorn. They played a good, solid game against Brazil, but unfortunately it just was not good enough to get them over the line.

Nonetheless, it was a meritorious effort and fully deserving of the highest praise.

Here, though, they are taking on Spain.

It would be easy to jump on the bandwagon with all the optimists and declare that South Africa has a strong chance to win here because Spain is coming into the match off a loss to the US and South Africa played their best game of the tournament last night.

But every hard statistic points solidly in the other direction.

spacer	Spain	South Africa
FIFA Rank	1	72
2009 Conf Cup WLD	3-0-1	1-1-2
2009 Conf Cup GF	8	2
2009 Conf Cup GA	2	3
Shots Attempted	58	45
Accuracy (SA/GF)	13.8%	4.4%
Scoring Players	4	1
Best Result	5-0 v NZ	2-0 v NZ
Worst Result	0-2 v USA	0-2 v Spain
Overall Record
WC Matches P/W	49/22	6/1
CC Matches P/W	4/3	6/1
EC or ANC P/W	30/13 (2)	28/13 (1)
1st Class Players*	23	4
* "First class players" means those who play for a major European club during the normal football season (eg. Premier League in England, Scotland, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, or Portugal).

Now, of course, every game is unique and many factors can affect the result, including penalties and red cards, etc. Even simple luck can make a difference.

But when it comes to predicting the outcome of a match, we can't take any of those factors into account. The only guide we can rely on is past history and any special piece of news that comes our way, such as information that a player has been injured and will not make an appearance.

And so, based on past history, current form, and what is known about the players who are expected to take the field, there can only be one possible prediction.

Spain should win this easily, at least if they care at all about claiming third place.

Strange things have indeed happened in third place games in past Confederations Cups, notably Australia defeating Brazil (2001) and Turkey beating Colombia in 2003.

Considering that Spain will have felt the hurt of their first loss since Nov. 2006, I expect they will be out to salvage their pride and will put in a genuine effort. If this is the case, then they should be not be any more troubled by their opponent than they were last time these two teams met.

Confederations Cup Brazil-South Africa: Hollow Victory

Brad Carroll — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:27:59 -0400

For a world still reeling in shock from the result of the first semifinal between USA and Spain, the disgraceful effort put in by Brazil against South Africa was almost too much to bear.

Even as I write, the tremors have still not quite subsided.

Unfortunately there are no pills that can effectively get rid of the bitter aftertaste of knowing you have watched a match in which the better team has shown no sign that they have been putting in their strongest effort.

I don't want to be responsible for starting any conspiracy-theory style rumors, but this was a match in which Brazil were heading toward their third goalless draw against a clearly inferior opponent.

The other two were both home games, and the opponents were Bolivia and Colombia, either of which could be expected to play well against South Africa.

It was only a free kick awarded with just a couple of minutes left on the clock that broke the stalemate. This was put in the net by Daniel Alves, who had come onto the ground just minutes earlier as a substitute for Andre Santos.

Crazy theories notwithstanding, there can be no doubt that the game we saw was not the one we had paid to see.

To the credit of the South Africans, they played to at least their usual standard, which means the best that they are able to perform. Sadly, the same cannot truthfully be said of the Brazilian team.

When the final whistle blew, the score was 1-0. The only sight which was not unusual was the Brazilian team celebrating, while their opponents were left to trudge sadly off the field.

The hopes and dreams of the South African team may have been shredded, but at least they can hold their heads up proudly and know that they fought hard and were not intimidated by the reputation of their opponent.

How could the Brazilians celebrate this hollow victory?

It would have been far more appropriate for them to have gone around the stands and personally apologized to each and every football fan who had paid good money to see a real football game between Brazil and South Africa rather than the sorry excuse for a football game that we did see.

If the effort from the Brazilian team in this match was honestly the best they could muster, then this should be very heartening to the US team. Never has there been more promise of the United States lifting a major international trophy.

This Brazilian team seems to run hot and cold. Bob Bradley and his team will be hoping the heat stays off.

Dunga, meanwhile, will need to examine this match closely and figure out just where his team went wrong today.

If he fails, then the final match on Sunday is one you cannot afford to miss.

Confederations Cup: US Defense Force Key to Victory Against Spain

Brad Carroll — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:58:48 -0400

Altidore and Dempsey are rightfully receiving accolades for their performance in the amazing victory against Spain.

But it was the efforts of the defenders, and Oguchi Onyewu in particular, that provided the cement on which the foundation of victory was built. These men, too, should get their due.

Following the precedent established by Russia in the Euro 2008 semifinal, the US team made a concentrated effort to frustrate the usual Spanish tactics of running the ball up the middle for a connection with Villa, Xavi, or Torres.

While the execution of the strategy was not quite as perfect as the Russian example (Spain managed to send off 29 shots in this match, with eight on target), the Americans still played a better game simply because they remembered that they were supposed to be trying to get the ball themselves and not just block the Spaniards.

They also had the situational awareness to realize that they were the American team and not Brazil, so the passing between American players was crisp and efficient (rather than elegant and showy), and in fact quite similar to the style of play that the Turkish team had employed during Euro 2008.

So maybe the "surprise strategy" that Bob Bradley had hinted at before the game was actually a hybrid between the Russian and Turkish playing styles that had propelled those two underdog teams so much further than anyone expected in the European Championship.

On the rare occasions when the Spaniards managed to break through the defensive line, Onyewu somehow managed to put himself in the perfect position to intercept the ball and clear it from the danger zone. I swear, the man must be able to teleport.

About midway through the first half, the Spanish rallied and were looking dangerous. But they just could not sustain the momentum and whatever short-lived morale boost they had was quickly broken down when just a couple of minutes later Jozy Altidore hammered through the first goal for the Americans.

This was the real turning point of the match, as Spain never fully recovered from the sudden shock of seeing the ball hit the back of their net. Sure, they managed to look dangerous on a few occasions during the remainder of the match, but the shots were always off target, cleared (by you know who) or saved by Tim Howard.

Howard wasn't getting a lot of opportunity to exercise during the later stages of the game, and I'm sure there must have been a few occasions when he would have even forgotten what the ball looked like, but when the time came to step up and do his job he did that more than adequately.

That was especially true just after the start of the second half when Villa was able to get clear of his minders and fire off the most lethal looking shot to have come from the Spanish team during this match. Howard managed to launch himself in what looked an impossible distance and pulled off a fingertip deflection that even Buffon would have been impressed by.

Meanwhile at the other end of the ground, the American team had clearly taken the initiative, as the Spanish were either demoralized or simply worn down. This was the start of the real attacking phase for the Americans and it was relentless.

The pay-off came in the 74th minute when Donovan booted yet another of those crisp, clinical passes to find Dempsey in just the right place to put the ball into the net.

That effectively was the true end of the match, as the only other event of real significance that followed was the red card awarded to Michael Bradley when there were only a handful of minutes left in the game.

That was an odd call to go straight for the red, but effectively it made the victory even sweeter for the Americans. Not only did the USA beat the so-called "best team in the world", but they did it with one man off the field in the last seven minutes.

While obviously congratulations are in order for Dempsey for winning the Man of the Match award, I can't help but feel that Onyewu was more deserving of the title on this occasion.

Confederations Cup Shock: U.S. Trumps Spain

Brad Carroll — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 21:03:50 -0400

There is only one possible way to sum up the match between Spain and USA to do justice to the significance of what happened. Here are a few scenarios of what could have been:

The U.S. don't get their asses handed to them by Spain? Possible.

The U.S. fight determinedly and manage to keep the game scoreless? Maybe, if they really concentrate.

The U.S. owns Spain, with a 2-0 trouncing? Priceless.

There is no denying it. This was one of those MasterCard moments. The USA has reached the final of the Confederations Cup. I'm finally able to type, but my lower jaw still cannot meet the upper one.

I'm sure the result was not a good one for most of those who were inclined to have a bet, but for the game of soccer the result could not have been better. Maybe now Americans will understand the magic. Can anybody put a price on that?

I know this article is not up to my usual standard, I apologize for that, but I'm still in shock. It's a wonder I can say anything.

So, now, the question is can these plucky Americans do it again? Will they bring this standard of play to Brazil and will even that be enough? A few days ago, such a question might have brought a patronizing pat on the head and a sympathetic smile. But now...maybe the term "American Dreamer" is not quite so apt.

Bob Bradley has earned his wings. The world has turned and things are very different to the way they were just 24 hours ago. Now the USA have made it into the Confederations Cup final, and the Spaniards are off to Bible study.

"Eh? Bible study?"

Well, sure. It's obvious they need to go over the bit about how Goliath should never underestimate David.

Confederations Cup Warfare: USA Looks for Tactical Edge Against Spain

Brad Carroll — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:14:57 -0400

Even though the Spanish-American War of 1898 only lasted four months, it was a bitter and bloody struggle in which thousands of men were killed and wounded, with many thousands more falling victim to disease.

The sequel will be showing on a screen near you in just a few hours' time, and it is expected to last just a little over 90 minutes (it is hoped there will be less violence this time around).

At first glance, it seems an unfair fight. The Spanish have all the heavy artillery, and their battle-hardened veterans have recently emerged triumphant from a tough European Championship campaign that has prepared them well for their Confederations Cup appearance. So far in the competition, no team has been able to hold them down.

But Americans are renowned for their courage and determination in battle, so even if they may not have the firepower to evenly match their opponents, we can expect to witness a strong fight from a team that has played some decent soccer in their recent matches.

By comparison, Spain have had a relatively easy path into the finals, while the USA have had to face off against Brazil, Egypt, and Italy. Still, there can be no denying that the USA faces a huge task in attempting to topple the European champions.

The key to victory appears to lie in following the example set by Russia during their match against Spain in Euro 2008. In that game, the Russians managed to shut down Spain during the first half by keeping up a steady and frustrating pressure on David Villa and Fernando Torres. Their fatal mistake was to play too defensively and also forgetting that there is more to the Spanish team than just these two magnificent players.

If the Americans can manage a similar effort in denying Spain the opportunity to bring their strongest firepower to bear, then they have a slim hope. But they must follow through with a relentless and accurate attacking game, avoiding the mistakes of the Russian example.

Spain, too, will need to concentrate. In the game against Russia, they had a tendency during the first half to lose their cool (no doubt as a result of Russia's defensive smothering). Consequently, when they did take shots, there was an edge of panic and inaccuracy to them.

It was not until Xavi Hernández managed to snap one through early in the second half that the tide of morale turned and the Spanish returned to their sensational best.

The Americans claim they are confident. Coach Bob Bradley has hinted that his team may pull a tactical surprise. It will need to be a good one!

Spain really do deserve to be a hot favorite to win this match, although the logic of bookmakers to set the market at exactly the same prices (at the time of writing) to those seen in the Brazil versus South Africa game is puzzling, to say the least. This game is nowhere near the walkover result that the other one will be.

All things considered, it looks almost certain that hopes and dreams alone will not be enough to change the expected outcome.

Prediction: Spain to win by one or two goals (but the Americans will make them earn those goals the hard way).

Confederations Cup: Brazil Have No Hope (of Losing to South Africa!)

Brad Carroll — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:58:23 -0400

No matter which way you look at it, there can scarcely be a question that tomorrow's Confederations Cup match between Brazil and host nation South Africa will be a one-sided affair. In fact, the two teams are so clearly mismatched that the likely outcome could potentially be considered boring by some.

Thus it has been a surreal experience to read some of the unrealistically flattering comments that key Brazilian personnel have directed at their hosts, including a quote from coach Dunga, featured on the FIFA official website, in which it was stated "South Africa are an emerging team, but we know they will give us a difficult test."

Sure this sort of comment can be considered an attempt at sportsmanship or simply being "polite" to the hosts—and indeed it has even come to be expected in recent times —but in this particular case it comes across as false modesty.

I believe that undermines the respect that we can attribute to such comments, and consequently the sincerity of those who make them.

Not that I mean to question Dunga's integrity, but how can we be expected to believe there is any real concern in the Brazilian camp (who have thus far scored 10 goals against the likes of Italy, Egypt, and USA) for the prospects of a side such as South Africa, who only qualified as they are the host nation and have thus far achieved a win over lowly New Zealand and a stale draw against Iraq.

Considering that Australia's exit from the Oceania contest meant an automatic promotion to the number one slot for New Zealand and that Iraq prevailed in one of the world's weakest football confederations, it is hard to understand the basis for any flattering comments with regard to South Africa's prospects against Brazil in the semi-final.

It is admirable, of course, that South Africa have made it this far and they deserve praise for the effort. Perhaps the most flattering thing we can honestly say is that it was remarkable that they managed to keep Spain's winning margin to only two goals.

But if Brazil were to lose this match, I dare say it would be virtually impossible for Dunga to return to his homeland, at least if he hopes to keep his hide intact.

The Brazilians did make a few tactical mistakes in their opening match against Egypt, when they were caught flat-footed twice in succession by the unexpected (and thoroughly brilliant) lightning-play tactics of their opponents, but we can expect that such embarrassing mistakes will not be repeated any time soon.

Which is why I feel that I can confidently predict that there is no hope for the Brazilians... to lose!

Prediction: Brazil to win by at least two goals.

Campeonato Paulista: Undermanned Oeste Defeat Guarani by Two

Brad Carroll — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 13:55:15 -0400

Oeste managed their first Paulista-A win since Feb. 8, defeating the relegation-zoned Guarani despite taking a red card midway through the second half.

Paulo Ramos ("Dédé") stepped out of his usual defensive role to score the first goal for Oeste after just 14 minutes. Caique Silva Rocha ("Caique") put away the second goal not long after.

Leandro Rodrigues da Silva ("Love") provided an opportunity for the home side to fight back by getting himself sent off. Embarrassingly enough for Guarani, they could not break through even with an advantage and plenty of time left to play.

Oeste are now 12th on the table, having won just three of their 14 games this season. Guarani have not won a Paulista-A match since January and are currently placed 19th in a field of 20.

São Paulo Maul Mirassol in Five-Goal Walkover

Brad Carroll — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 01:05:14 -0400

Former Fenerbahçe striker, Washington Stecanela Cerqueira ("Washington") was the star of the show, scoring three goals in São Paulo's 5-0 trouncing of Mirassol.

This performance now takes his 2009 Paulista-A record to eight goals from nine appearances, and sees São Paulo safely at the No. 3 slot on the table, while Mirassol is floundering in 14th position.

The first goal of the match was scored by Humberlito Borges Teixeira ("Borges") in the 38th minute, with Washington sending in his first just five minutes later.

Having conceded two goals before the break, the prognosis was grim for Mirassol who were facing their third straight loss and have yet to post a win from five matches in the Paulista-A series this year.

Things only got worse in the second half, when a red card in the 58th minute resulted in a 11/10 mismatch. Jorge Wágner was quick to capitalize for the home side, booting in a goal only moments later.

From then on, all the visitors could do was try and limit the damage. They did well to hold on for as long as they did, but in the end Washington hammered home another two goals in the closing stages and sealed Mirassol's fate.

This can only be seen as a serious blow to their morale, and Mirassol will need to find some way to overcome this in time for tomorrow's game against Paulista.

São Paulo will face Marília tomorrow, and can expect no more difficulty from this opponent than they faced from Mirassol.

Bayern Munich Return to Form: Embarrassing Slump Ended

Brad Carroll — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 12:32:41 -0400

"Never a dull moment" is a term that can rarely be (truthfully) applied to a soccer match. Yesterday's must-win contest between Bayern Munich and Hannover 1896 was a clear exception to the rule.

A team with a long-standing history of success, Bayern Munich suddenly found themselves struggling in the unfamiliar territory of the middle of the points table following a series of mediocre results, having won only two of their past six Bundesliga matches.

Adding insult to injury, they were displaced from the German Cup competition by Bayer Leverkusen (currently 8th on the Bundesliga table) at their most recent start.

Ominously, Hannover 1896 defeated Bayer Leverkusen last week. This success gave them some hope, but the Hannover team were also hungry for a win for a different reason. Their losing streak of six games as the away team desperately needed to be broken.

It took just 15 minutes for Jiji Stajner to boost the 96er's confidence with a snap across the goal face sneaking past Michael Rensing to land in the bottom right corner of the net. This took Stajner's record to six goals from 17 matches for 2008/09.

But it was all for nothing, as Daniel van Buyten put through an equalizer just five minutes later. And then the slaughter began!

Before half-time, Bayern Munich had hammered in another two goals, one from Miroslav Klose in the 25th minute and a classy left-footed tip by Hamit Altintop as he took the ball on the rebound from Klose's noggin.

The second half only brought more punishment to the visitors, as Lucas Podolski converted a corner kick with his head, followed not long after by Martin Demichelis who did pretty much the same thing.

The final score was 5-1, and the result was enough to propel Bayern Munich from fifth place to second on the points table, just behind Hertha Berlin who now lead by four points.