Bleacher Report - Articles by Ryan Fay

Six Months Later, Mariners 2008 Draft Pick Josh Fields Remains Unsigned

Ryan Fay — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 05:44:51 -0500

The Seattle Mariners drafted Josh Fields with the 20th pick in the 2008 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft.

That was back on June 5th. Over six months later, Fields remains unsigned and is one of just three first rounders who have not signed.

The Washington Nationals didn't sign Aaron Crow, the ninth pick in the draft; the two sides couldn't agree on the financial terms of a contract. Crow will likely end up playing in the Independent Leagues before re-entering the draft next year. The Nationals will receive the 10th pick as compensation.

The Yankees took Gerrit Cole with the 28th pick but Cole opted to attend UCLA. Cole won't be draft eligible again until after his junior season at UCLA. As compensation, the Yankees will be awarded the 29th pick in the draft.

Crow and Cole had to sign by August 15th. Fields, as a college senior, wasn't subjected to that deadline and can sign right up until the 2009 draft.

Fields was originally drafted 69th overall by the Atlanta Braves in 2007. But he struggled in his junior season at Georgia, especially with his control and his velocity, and opted against signing with the Braves. He returned to school and hoped to improve his draft stock.

And he did.

He was selected 49 spots higher in 2008, thanks to a big senior season at Georgia, where he allowed just 12 hits in 32.2 innings while walking 18 and striking out 56.

Fields can enter a game and dominate. He has a mid-to-high 90's fastball and a wicked low 80's curve. But his control can elude him, and at 6'0"/183 lbs, isn't a physically imposing presence.

Fields is viewed as a guy who is close to the majors as well as someone who could eventually be a closer. Some analysts said if any of the '08 draftees could make it to the big leagues before the year was out, it would have been Fields.

Obviously, that didn't happen. So why is Fields still unsigned?

He's a Scott Boras client and there's reportedly a $500,000 difference between Fields and his representation and the Mariners.

While Fields was a consensus first round talent, very few thought the Mariners would have taken him.

Why would a team going nowhere spend a first round pick on a quick-moving relief pitcher? It didn't make much sense.

Detroit and Milwaukee were more popular landing spots for Fields, largely because both did (and still do) need relief help. Detroit picked Ryan Perry, another college reliever who could move fast, one pick after Seattle nabbed Fields. Milwaukee selected catcher Brett Lawrie with the 16th pick.

More importantly, much of the regime in charge for Seattle at the time, including general manager Bill Bavasi, have been canned.

Back in June, Rotoworld speculated that "the staff in Seattle knows it's running out of time and Fields will be ready to help earlier than practically anyone else left on the board."

It's possible that the new members of the front office realized that Fields wasn't the right pick for the organization, given its bleak short term outlook.

If they don't sign Fields, the Mariners would receive the 21st pick in the 2009 draft as compensation.

Detroit Tigers' Top-Five Prospects For 2009

Ryan Fay — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 09:41:47 -0500

Detroit Tigers' Top-Five Prospects For 2009

1. Rick Porcello, RHP, 12/27/1988

Porcello, a native of New Jersey, was viewed as one of the best talents in the 2007 draft.

Represented by Scott Boras, Porcello had high contract demands and it resulted in him falling to the 27th pick. He ended up signing a $7 million Major League contract and bypassed a chance to play at the college level for North Carolina, where he had signed a letter of intent.

Porcello spent all of last season with High-A Lakeland and had an impressive showing for a 19-year-old at that level: 125 IP, 116 H, 33 BB, 72 K.

The strikeout rate was disappointing, but he had a 65% groundball rate, which led the league. A high groundball rate is important because it means fewer homeruns and extra base hits, which in turn, leads to fewer runs allowed.

Porcello, who features a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a changeup, a slider, and a curve, has the potential to be an ace.

He should begin next year with AA-Erie. He could get a cup of coffee late in the season and should continue to move quickly for a high school product.

2. Ryan Perry, RHP, 2/13/1987

A product of the University of Arizona, Perry was picked 21st in last June's draft and could be fast tracked to the majors.

He managed to squeeze in 13.2 IP at the end of the season between the GCL Tigers and Lakeland. He allowed 15 hits and seven walks while striking out 12.

Perry can throw his fastball anywhere between 93 and 98 MPH, but he also has a good change and a good slider.

Opinion was split as far as what role Perry would assume—starter or reliever. He pitched exclusively out of the pen at the end of the year and it's expected that it's the role he'll be in as a major leaguer.

He has future closer written all over him, and that's a good thing since the Tigers are in dire need of one. Fernando Rodney isn't the answer and Joel Zumaya can't stay healthy.

Perry likely will begin 2009 in AA but may not need much more time in the minors before he's in the Tigers bullpen.

3. Wilkin Ramirez, OF, 10/25/1985

Ramirez was always a guy thought to have a lot of tools, but he never stayed healthy and never really produced when he was.

Last year, he finally did both.

In 433 AB for Erie, he hit .303 and showcased an intriguing blend of power and speed. He hit 24 doubles, seven triples, and 19 long balls and complemented it by going 26-for-38 in stolen base attempts.

The 19 homers were sixth-best in the league while the 26 steals were tied for second best.

He didn't walk that much—just 43 times—and he struck out too often, tying for the league lead with 138.

Those kinds of problems quickly ended a mid season promotion to AAA-Toledo, where he went 3-for-36 with one walk and 11 K's. He went back down to Erie but continued to hit the rest of the way.

Look for Ramirez to give AAA another shot to open 2009. Barring another collapse, he'll debut in Motown sometime during the year and could contend for a starting corner outfield spot in 2010.

4. Brandon Hamilton, RHP, 12/25/1988

A supplemental first round pick in 2007, Hamilton has one of the highest upsides of any pitcher in the organization.

He began 2008 with Low-A West Michigan, but had a rough go of it. In 32.1 IP, he surrendered 34 hits and 28 walks while striking out 22.

He was demoted to the Gulf Coast League and found things a bit easier. He pitched 38 innings, allowing 27 hits and 13 walks. He fanned 43.

It's likely that Hamilton was simply wasn't ready for the assignment to West Michigan. Since he performed well in the GCL, I'd expect him to be given another test in West Michigan to start 2009.

He has a low 90s fastball and a power curve that some say rivals the one Porcello has. His command needs work and he needs to develop a third pitch, but he has toyed with a changeup in the past.

Born on Christmas day, Hamilton could eventually be a real gift to the organization. His ceiling is quite high, though he's a long way from reaching it.

5. Casey Crosby, LHP, 9/17/88

Like Porcello, Crosby fell in the draft due to a high price tag. He slipped to the fifth round, but eventually signed for $748,500, the equivalent of first round money.

He underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after the draft and didn't make his professional debut until the final weeks of this past season.

There's not much on the numbers front to go on with Crosby, who only threw 4.2 innings in the summer for the GCL Tigers.

Scouting wise, there's a lot to love. At 6'5"/205 lbs, he has a prototypical power pitcher's build. He has a mid 90s fastball, but his breaking pitches, his command, and his mechanics need a lot of work.

Still, lefthanders with that combination of size and heat are hard to come by and if everything else comes together, he could become a front of the rotation pitcher.

Crosby has only been a full-time pitcher since 2006, so between that and the Tommy John surgery, he's especially raw for a 20-year-old pitcher.

Prior to becoming a full-time pitcher, he spent time in center field and was an All-State wide receiver on his high school's football team.

The Tigers will be patient with Crosby. Depending on how he looks in the spring, he could open 2009 with West Michigan or he could be held back until the short season leagues begin their seasons in June.

Vazquez Trade Shakes Up Farm

Ryan Fay — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 08:19:16 -0500

When the Chicago White Sox traded Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to Atlanta last night, it forced an update of my two-day-old White Sox top 5 prospect list.

In return for Vazquez and Logan, the White Sox received prospects Tyler Flowers, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez.

Flowers, a 22-year-old catcher, becomes the No. 3 prospect for the White Sox, behind Gordon Beckham and Aaron Poreda.

Flowers was a popular breakout candidate before the season and fulfilled those expectations.

He spent 2008 with Myrtle Beach of the High-A Carolina League. In 413 at bats (122 games), he hit .288 with 32 doubles, a triple, and 17 home runs.

He picked up league-leading 98 walks to go along with 102 strikeouts, a .427 OBP and a .494 SLG. The OBP ranked second in the league while the SLG ranked fifth.

Flowers further improved his stock with an outstanding showing in the Arizona Fall League, where he slugged 12 homers in only 75 AB while hitting .387.

The downside to Flowers is that he's not a strong bet to stay behind the plate. He's 6'4"/245 lbs and is more likely to end up at first base down the road.

Look for Flowers to begin 2009 with AA-Birmingham.

None of the other prospects Chicago received would crack the top five, but Lillibridge, 25, would likely make the list if it was expanded to ten.

He had a miserable season last year, posting a .638 OPS in 355 AB for AAA-Richmond and he hit .220 in 80 AB for Atlanta.

He's better than what he showed last year and should compete with Chris Getz, Jayson Nix, and Wilson Betemit for the second base job. Lillibridge can play short as well.

UPDATED WHITE SOX TOP 5 PROSPECT LIST

1. Gordon Beckham

2. Aaron Poreda

3. Tyler Flowers

4. Dayan Viciedo

5. Brandon Allen

Getz drops off the top five.

Cleveland Indians Top Five Prospects For 2009

Ryan Fay — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 10:03:13 -0500

Cleveland Indians Top-Five Prospects for 2009

1. Matt LaPorta, OF/1B, 1/8/1985

LaPorta was drafted seventh overall by Milwaukee in 2007, but was shipped to Cleveland this past summer as part of the deal that sent CC Sabathia to Milwaukee.

LaPorta had been mashing in the minors prior to his trade to Cleveland.

In 2007, he put up a .304/.369/.696/ line in 118 at bats between R-Helena and A-West Virginia.

He picked up where he left off to begin 2008, going .288/.402/.576 in 302 AB for AA-Huntsville. LaPorta showed a good eye at the plate—45 walks against 63 strikeouts—and exhibited quite a bit of power, clubbing 23 doubles and 20 homers.

But LaPorta struggled to duplicate that success in 60 AB for Cleveland's AA team, hitting just .233/.299/.350.

He also struggled in the Venezuelan Winter League, striking out 22 times in 67 at bats while hitting .164/.250/.299.

Right now, treat his struggles as a blip on the radar. LaPorta is still a premium prospect that figures to be Cleveland's long term answer at either first base or at one of the corner outfield spots.

Look for LaPorta to begin 2009 back in AA. If he gets back on track, he'll advance to AAA and could debut late in the season.

2. Carlos Santana, C, 4/8/1986

Santana was acquired in July when Cleveland traded Casey Blake to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Through his first four seasons in the minor leagues, Santana didn't appear to be anything special. In 700 AB entering 2008, he hit just .259/.357/.406, including a .223/.318/.370 line in 2007.

But this past season was a different story.

He began the year with High-A Inland Empire and he tore through the league. In 350 at bats, he had a .323/.431/.563 line and demonstrated outstanding patience at the plate, collecting 69 walks while fanning only 59 times. The power was there as well—34 doubles and 14 long balls.

After the trade to Cleveland, he was assigned to their High-A affiliate in Kinston and continued to put up big numbers, hitting .352/.452/.590 in 113 AB. The power (12 XBH) and patience (20 BB, 24 K) held up well.

The success earned him a cup of coffee with AA-Akron, where he went 1-for-8.

Santana will have to prove that his breakout wasn't an aberration, but the stats don't suggest that it was. He'll likely begin the year with Akron and could earn a September call-up with another productive season.

He's projected to be Cleveland's long term catcher. Current starter Victor Martinez is signed through 2009 with a club option for 2010, coinciding well with Santana's arrival.

3. Beau Mills, 1B/DH, 8/15/1986

Mills was selected with the 13th pick in the 2007 draft.

After a mediocre pro debut that year, Mills enjoyed a solid 2008 season.

He spent the entire year with High-A Kinston, and in 482 AB, he hit .293/.373/.506. He smacked 34 doubles and hit 21 homers with a BB/K of 51/105.

Mills struggled at the start of the year, hitting .212 with a 698 OPS in April. But picked it from the rest of the way. His OPS rose each month: 698-856-874-918-982.

There's no question that hitting is what will get Mills to the majors. On top of his good year in 2008, Mills hit an NAIA record 38 home runs in 2006 while playing for Lewis-Clark State.

Mills' biggest fault is his defense, which is said to be well below-average. He was drafted as a third baseman, but that experiment quickly ended and he spent this past year as a first baseman, where he reportedly wasn't much better.

He should begin 2009 with Akron and profiles best as a designated hitter at the major league level. He could debut in September.

4. Nick Weglarz, OF, 12/16/1987

This native of Ontario, Canada was a third rounder in 2005 and has advanced well for his age.

He played exclusively for Kinston in 2008 and had a line of .272/.396/.432 in 375 AB (105 games). He had 35 XBH (20 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR) though his overall power output took a step back from 2007 levels. He also went 9-for-14 in stolen base attempts.

His 828 OPS ranked eighth in the league and the seven ahead of him were at least 13 months older than he was.

Weglarz' best asset may be his patience at the plate. He drew 71 walks in only 105 games, fourth most in the entire Carolina League and the three ahead of him played in at least 12 more games.

In 2007, he struck out 129 times in 125 games. Last year, while playing at a higher level, he only fanned just 78 times in 105 games.

Weglarz, a former member of the Canadian National Team, figures to return to Kinston to begin 2009. But a fast start could earn him a promotion to Akron.

Weglarz could arrive in Cleveland in mid-to-late 2010, and while he may not hit for a great average, he should get on-base at a high clip with good power numbers to boot.

5. David Huff, LHP, 8/22/1984

Huff was drafted out of UCLA and went 39th overall in the 2006 draft.

He split last season between Akron and AAA-Buffalo. He appeared in 27 games—26 starts—and racked up a career-high 146.1 innings. He gave up just 112 hits and 29 walks while striking out 143—all outstanding ratios.

Huff did miss a sizable chunk of 2007 with a sore elbow, but there was no indication it caused any problems last year and he appears to be healthy.

Huff profiles as a No. 3 starter at the major league level. He doesn't light up the radar gun—his fastball tops out around 90. But it plays up due to his command, which ranks with just about anyone in the system and he has several offerings at his disposal.

Besides the fastball, his best pitch is a changeup that elicits swings-and-misses. He'll also throw a slider and a curve.

He should have a chance to break camp in the big league rotation. If he doesn't, he'll head back to Buffalo and will be among the first names called when a need arises.

He's a better bet than guys like Scott Lewis, Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey.

NOTE: Only players with no more than 130 AB/50 IP in the majors qualify for this list.

Chicago White Sox Top-Five Prospects for 2009

Ryan Fay — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 10:39:11 -0500

DECEMBER 3RD UPDATE: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/88688-vazquez-trade-shakes-up-farm

Chicago White Sox 2009 Top-Five Prospects

1. Gordon Beckham, 2B/SS, 9/16/1986

A poor 2007 season left the White Sox with the eighth pick in the 2008 draft and they used it to select Beckham, an offensive-minded middle infielder out of the University of Georgia.

Beckham had a fine professional debut. For Low-A Kannapolis, he hit .310/.365/.500 in 58 at bats and followed that up with a .394/.468/.652 line in 66 AB while playing in the Arizona Fall League.

Beckham is expected to be a quick mover. The most optimistic estimates have him appearing in Chicago in mid-2009. The more cautious pundits expect Beckham to debut in 2010.

Beckham was drafted as a shortstop, but it's debatable if he stays there long term. Others see him eventually moving to second base—with Alexei Ramirez, Chicago's second baseman last season, playing shortstop.

Beckham has the potential to be an impact player in the majors and is seen as a relatively low-risk prospect, but one with a relatively high ceiling.

2. Aaron Poreda, LHP, 10/1/1986

Lefthanders who can consistently reach the mid-to-upper 90's usually don't fall to the 25th pick in the draft, but that's what happened to Poreda in 2007.

Poreda, who was raw for a college product, has a great fastball, but lacks secondary stuff and some believe his ultimate role will be out of the bullpen.

The 6'6" lefty split last season between High-A Winston-Salem and AA-Birmingham. He made 27 starts and threw 161 innings, allowing 148 hits and 40 walks. He struck out 118.

Poreda spent time in the Arizona Fall League and appeared in 10 games—all out of the bullpen. He didn't allow a run in eight of those games, but coughed up eight runs in the other two games.

The bullpen stint in the AFL could suggest the White Sox are rethinking Poreda's role and a move to the pen would get him to the majors faster.

Incumbent big-league closer Bobby Jenks is reportedly on the trade block, so this is a situation worth watching in the coming months.

Regardless of his role, Poreda should be in the majors by the middle of the 2010 season. If he's coming out of the bullpen, he could appear in 2009.

3. Dayan Viciedo, 3B, 3/10/1989

Viciedo defected from Cuba earlier this year and has agreed to a five-year major league deal with Chicago. The deal is believed to be worth $11 million.

Viciedo's presence gives Chicago three Cuban born players—the other two being Jose Contreras and Ramirez.

Viciedo is regarded as one of the top prospects in Cuba and hit .337 with 14 homers as a 16-year-old playing at the top level in the country.

There's a belief that he could begin next season at the hot corner for Chicago.

Last year's starter, Joe Crede, won't be back. Josh Fields, formerly one of the better prospects in the organization, has seemingly fallen out of favor. Wilson Betemit, acquired in the trade that sent Nick Swisher to the Yankees, could be an option at third as well.

Viciedo could also end up in right field. His body has gotten bigger over the years and a move to the outfield might be necessary.

Jermaine Dye has been Chicago's right fielder for the last several seasons and his name has been thrown around in trade talks this winter.

Viciedo's agent Jaime Torres said in a recent Chicago Sun-Times article that "scouts have told me that there's no reason that he shouldn't be hitting 35-40 home runs a year."

4. Brandon Allen, 1B, 2/12/1986

Allen has been slow to develop since being drafted out of high school in 2004, but he's come on in the last couple years.

A hulking presence at 6'2" and 235 pounds, Allen had a breakout season in 2008, spending time with Winston-Salem and Birmingham.

In 472 at bats, he ripped 32 doubles and clubbed 29 homers while hitting a combined .278 with 60 walks and 124 K.

For a big man, he showed surprising speed, legging out six triples and going 17-for-21 in stolen base attempts.

He's shown an improving eye at the plate—in 44 fewer AB in 2008, he drew 21 more walks than he did in 2007 and he played in higher levels last year.

Allen will likely spend 2009 with AAA-Charlotte and could be an option at 1B/DH in 2010.

Paul Konerko and Jim Thome currently man those spots—the former being signed through 2010 and the latter through 2009.

5. Chris Getz, 2B, 8/30/1983

Getz was drafted in the fifth round in the 2005 draft and has little left to prove in the minors.

Getz spent all of last season with Charlotte and hit .306 with a line of .366/.448/.814. He collected 36 extra base hits and went 11-for-15 in stolen base attempts.

He made his big league debut in August and collected a pair of hits in seven at bats the rest of the way.

His best asset is his strike zone discipline. He struck out just 53 times last year and only 142 times in 1,428 career minor league AB. Last year was the first time he ended a season with more strikeouts (53) than walks (41).

With Ramirez moving to short, Getz might challenge Betemit and Jayson Nix for the second base job. He could end up being a stop gap until Beckham is ready.

Getz isn't a big upside guy, but should be at least a long term utility guy.

NOTE: Only players with no more than 130 AB/50 IP in the majors qualify for this list.

Toronto Blue Jays Top-Five Prospects for 2009

Ryan Fay — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 06:11:09 -0500

Having a strong minor-league system can fuel an organization for years to come. Quality young talent can propel an organization to new heights—see the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.

This time, we'll look at the Toronto Blue Jays, one of many teams who will have to contend with the young talent the Rays have groomed.

The Jays haven't made the playoffs since capturing the 1993 World Series, but they have shown an ability to turn prospects into big contributors at the major league level. They drafted Roy Halladay, the 2003 American League Cy Young winner, as well as Vernon Wells, a two-time All Star.

Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Top-Five Prospects

1. Travis Snider, OF, 2/2/1988 - Snider, the 14th overall pick in the 2006 draft, is one of just 11 players from the first round of that draft to have already cracked the majors.

He did so on August 29th and ended up hitting .301/.338/.466 in 73 at-bats.

It was a rapid rise through the system for Snider, who began the year with High-A Dunedin before advancing to AA-New Hampshire, AAA-Syracuse and eventually Toronto.

Hitting isn't Snider's problem—through 1138 AB in the minors, he's compiled a line of .299/.375/.513.

Striking out is his problem. In those 1138 AB, a stretch of 305 games, Snider has struck out 330 times, including 154 times in 487 AB (133 games) in the minors last year.

Snider is likely headed to Las Vegas, Toronto's new AAA affiliate, to begin 2009. He'll work on cutting back on the strikeouts, the biggest mark against him.

Vernon Wells and Alexis Rios are locked up long term in Toronto, so Snider could end up in left field, though he could be an option at designated hitter. He'll be back in Toronto before too long.

2. J.P. Arencibia, C, 1/5/1986 - A standout at Tennessee, Arencibia followed Snider in the first round a year later, going 21st overall in the 2007 draft.

Arencibia's best asset is his bat. It was his calling card in the draft, and between Dunedin and New Hampshire this past season, he hit .298/.322/.527, including 36 doubles and 27 homeruns.

Patience is a virtue, and one Arencibia seems to lack. He walked just 18 times in 510 at bats last year, an abysmal rate, and one that was even worse while he was with New Hampshire. He also struck out 101 times on the year.

He's probably ticketed for Las Vegas to begin 2009, but could debut in Toronto later in the year. There's nobody blocking him at the major league level.

3. Brett Cecil, LHP, 7/2/1986 - Cecil was primarily a reliever during his days at Maryland, but the Jays have used him as a starter since taking him 37th overall in the 2007 draft.

He's made them look smart. Cecil is knocking on the door of the major leagues after a 2008 season that included stops in Dunedin, New Hampshire, and Syracuse.

Cecil made 28 starts, accumulating 118.2 innings. He allowed 100 hits, walked 41, and struck out 128—more than a batter per inning at each level. His usually good control wavered a bit in Syracuse, where he walked 16 in 30 innings.

He's been a consistently good performer in the minor leagues and will have a chance enter 2009 with a rotation spot in Toronto—especially if A.J Burnett leaves via free agency. Either way, he's about ready.

4. David Cooper, 1B, 2/12/1987 - The UC Berkeley product was nabbed with the 17th pick in last year's draft and figures to be a fast mover.

In less than half a season, Cooper made it up to Dunedin, and overall, he put together a line of .333/.399/.502 in 273 AB, spread pretty evenly between NYP-Auburn, Low-A Lansing, and Dunedin.

He's a good bet to begin the year in AA and could debut in Toronto late in the year.

Cooper has been compared to the player he figures to replace in Toronto, Lyle Overbay, who is signed through 2010.

While not the traditional masher you'd expect to see at first base, Cooper makes up for it by hitting for average and getting on base at a high clip. He should hit a lot of doubles as well.

5. Justin Jackson, SS, 12/11/1988 - Unlike Cooper, Jackson won't be someone who shoots through the system.

A supplemental first rounder in 2007, he's supposed to be known for his defense, but he committed 26 errors last year, one behind the team lead.

His hitting needs a lot of work, too. In 121 games (454 AB) last year, he struggled for hit for average (.238) and had problems making contact (154 strikeouts). Despite the strikeouts, he showed decent patience by drawing 62 walks, most on the team.

He didn't hit for much power, going deep just seven times, but he was second on the team with 26 doubles.

He did show speed -- Jackson was 17 for 25 in stolen base attempts and he legged out six triples.

Jackson has a lot of potential, and at 19, has plenty of time to fulfill it. He's very raw and should be back in Lansing next year. He didn't do anything to show he's ready for the next level.

What he's done to date won't generate a lot of excitement, but what he could do, will. Jackson has one of the highest ceilings in the system, but is among the least likely to reach it.

NOTE: Only players with no more than 130 AB/50 IP in the majors qualify for this list.

Tampa Bay Rays Top-Five Prospects for 2009

Ryan Fay — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:53:16 -0500

Having a strong minor-league system can fuel an organization for years to come. Quality young talent can propel an organization to new heights—see the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.

And it's those Rays who are the subject of this edition of the top five series. As a team with limited financial muscle, the Rays are forced to develop their own talent. Over the years, it's something they have done very well. It paid off in 2008 as several key players from their farm system were key contributors in their World Series run. James Shields and Evan Longoria are two of many examples.

Tampa Bay Ray 2009 Top-Five Prospects

1. David Price, LHP, 8/26/1985 - Price, the top pick in the 2007 draft, is the best pitching prospect in baseball.

Lefthanders with his size and stuff don't grow on trees. He's 6'6" and backs it up with a mid 90's fastball, as well as a slider and a change.

Price had a rapid ascent to the majors—he began the year making his professional debut with High-A Vero Beach. By the end of the season, he was a key cog in the bullpen during Tampa's playoff run.

Overall, he threw 123.2 IP in 2008, allowing 92 hits and 32 walks. He struck out 121, nearly a batter an inning.

He has the potential to be as good—or even better—than any of Tampa's current starters. Considering who they have, that's quite a compliment, but one well deserved.

Price is likely to begin 2009 in the big league rotation, possibly at the expense of Edwin Jackson, who could be shifted to the bullpen or traded.

2. Tim Beckham, SS, 1/27/1990 - After taking Price first overall in 2007, the Rays took Beckham with the top pick in 2008. Beckham was one of a handful of players who were considered to be the best player available in the draft.

His professional debut was shaky. Between R-Princeton and NYP-Hudson Valley, he hit .246/.309/.350 in 183 AB.

It's far from panic time—Beckham is an exciting talent, but one that's several years away from breaking into the majors.

He's an up-the-middle player that's loaded with tools and potential. Opinions vary, but some evaluators believe he could end up hitting 20 homers and stealing 40 bases on an annual basis in the majors.

That's worth waiting for.

3. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, 4/8/1987 - A fourth rounder in 2005, Hellickson has performed well at every stop he's made in his minor league career.

Last season, he set a career high with 27 starts and 152 innings pitched. In the previous three seasons, he threw a total of 195, so it was an important step forward after a few injuries raised durability issues.

He split the year between Vero Beach and AA-Montgomery and continued to show impeccable control (20 walks) and an ability to strike batters out (162).

His BAA rose by .068 in AA and he allowed more than twice as many homers, despite pitching roughly the same number of innings as he did for Vero Beach.

Hellickson could open 2009 with AAA-Durham and he'll have plenty of time to get ready as the Tampa rotation will be very hard for anyone to crack.

He profiles as a middle of the rotation option.

4. Wade Davis, RHP, 9/7/1985 - The native of Lake Whales, Florida was drafted in the third round of the 2004 draft. He's been consistently ranked among the best prospects in the organization since and did little to change that in 2008.

He made stops in Montgomery and AAA-Durham last season. He made 28 starts and threw 160.2 innings, giving up 144 hits and 66 walks while striking out 136.

It was the first time since his debut season in 2004 that he ended with fewer strikeouts than innings pitched, but his rate was still strong.

His best assets are low-to-mid 90's fastball and a hard curve, but he'll need throw more strikes. He walked 24 in 53 innings for Durham, nearly a batter every other inning.

He'll return to Durham in 2009 and work on throwing more strikes. If he can do that, he'll be ready for Tampa, but again, breaking into their rotation won't be easy.

He could be tried out in the bullpen, an area Tampa figures to have openings in.

5. Nick Barnese, RHP, 1/11/1989 - Barnese was nabbed in the third round of the 2007 draft and backed out of a commitment with Cal State Fullerton so he could sign with Tampa.

So far, it's looking like the right decision.

Barnese, who hails from Simi Valley, California, opened eyes with a strong debut for Princeton. In 36.1 innings, he allowed 30 hits, walked only four, and struck out 37.

Barnese has a fastball that can reach 93 MPH and spent this season with Hudson Valley. In 13 starts totaling 66 innings, he gave up 52 hits and 24 walks. He struck out 84, nearly a third of all of the batters he faced.

He walked a greater percentage of hitters in 2008, but also struck them out at a higher clip.

Barnese has done a good job at keeping the ball in the yard. In 102.1 professional innings, he's surrendered just two homers - one in each season.

After spending his first two seasons in short season ball, look for him to begin 2009 with Low-A Bowling Green. A full season assignment will give a better idea of how good he might be.

NOTE: Only players with no more than 130 AB/50 IP in the majors qualify for this list.

New York Yankees Top Five Prospects for 2009

Ryan Fay — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 12:14:27 -0500

Having a strong minor-league system can fuel an organization for years to come. Quality young talent can propel an organization to new heights—see the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.

This time, we'll look at the five best prospects in the New York Yankees minor-league system. The Yankees used their minor league pipeline to supply themselves with several players who were integral to their 1990s dominance.

Players like Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, and Mariano Rivera were developed by the Yankees and each were vital to the team winning four of five World Series between 1996 and 2000.

New York Yankees 2009 Top-Five Prospects

1. Jesus Montero, C, 11/28/1989 - Montero, signed out of Venezuela in 2006, is an imposing figure. The soon-to-be 19-year-old clocks in at 6'4"/225lbs, but it's that size that have many believing that his future is somewhere other than behind the plate, possibly at first base or designated hitter. He might become too big to catch, if he hasn't already.

Montero showed promise while playing in the Gulf Coast League in 2007, but he really emerged in 2008. Over 525 at-bats for Low-A Charleston, he hit .325 with a .376 on base percentage and a .491 slugging percentage. He smacked 34 doubles, drilled 17 home runs, walked 37 times, and struck out 83 times.

He was especially good after the All Star break, raising his average from .309 to .344, his OPS from 801 to 944, and he hit three more homers in 31 fewer at-bats. He also showed an improving eye at the plate, picking up nine more walks in those 31 fewer at bats.

We may not have seen the best of Montero yet, but those in the Florida State League might, as that's where he'll likely begin 2009 while playing for the High-A Tampa. He's still two or three years away from the Bronx.

2. Zach McAllister, RHP, 12/8/1987 - The Chillicothe, IL native was selected in the third round of the 2006 draft and has gradually picked up steam as time has gone on.

He split last season between Charleston and Tampa and was impressive at both stops. Between the two, he made 25 appearances (24 starts), threw 151 innings and surrendered 133 hits. More impressive was the fact that he walked just 21 batters all year—outstanding control for a 20 year old pitcher. He also struck out 115, but he struck them out at a lesser rate for Tampa.

McAllister isn't going to blow the ball by you, but he knows what he's doing out there and won't put himself into trouble. Look for him to start 2009 in AA-Trenton and eventually develop into a strong middle of the rotation pitcher. He won't be an ace, but he'll be better than someone who just eats innings.

3. Austin Jackson, OF, 2/1/1987 - Jackson was drafted in the eighth round of the 2005 draft and bypassed a basketball scholarship from Georgia Tech so he could sign with Yankees for $800,000.

Jackson is one of the most athletic prospects in the Yankees system, has good speed, and he's a plus in the outfield with good range and a good arm.

He spent the entire season playing for Trenton and had a respectable season: .285, 33 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 56 BB, 113 K, 19 SB, .354 OBP/.419 SLG.

Jackson's a good prospect, but not the great one some think he is. I'm not especially wowed by his AA numbers and his big 67 game stretch with Tampa in 2007 seems like a bit of an outlier. In those 67 games—spanning 238 at-bats—he hit .345/.398/.566 with 31 XBH. That's a level he hadn't approached before and hasn't since.

He's a good bet to start 2009 in AAA-Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and could see time in the Bronx later in the season. With Damon and Matsui aging, and with Melky Cabrera not proving to be much of an answer, Jackson has a chance to claim a starting job in the next year or two. He's not likely to become a true impact player, but rather a solid everyday guy.

4. Dellin Betances, RHP, 3/23/1988 - Betances is a native of Brooklyn, NY and was chosen in the eighth round of the 2006 draft. The first thing that stands out about him is his size—he's 6'8" and weighs 245 pounds—and he backs it up with a mid-90s fastball, as well as a curveball.

Betances has battled injuries in each of the last two seasons—an inflamed pitching elbow in 2007 and an undisclosed ailment that knocked him out for nearly a month early in the 2008 season.

But he finished 2008 strong and managed to throw 122 innings on the year, 115.1 for Charleston and the rest while rehabbing with the Gulf Coast League Yankees. He limited opposing batters to a .208 BAA, walked 59, and struck out 135.

Betances seemed to take a step forward after the All Star break. Before it, he had a 40/64 BB/K in 55 innings. After it, he had a 19/71 BB/K in 60.1 innings. Notice the major drop in walks while keeping an excellent strikeout rate. Betances could have a breakout season in 2009 if he can maintain that progress.

The biggest thing he needs to do is put together an injury-free season. He's likely join the Tampa Yankees for 2009, but is at least a couple years away from being a factor for the Yankees.

5. Mark Melancon, RHP, 3/28/1985 - After going to the Yankees in the ninth round of the 2006 draft, the Arizona product missed all of the 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery.

He's hardly missed a beat. His fastball remains in the low-to-mid-90s and he complements it with a power curve that ranks among the best in the organization.

Melancon began the season with Tampa and ended it in AAA, an impressive rise through the minors. All told, he got into 44 games, tossed 95 innings, allowed 69 hits, 22 walks, and fanned 89. Great numbers and even better was the fact he was healthy enough to throw 95 innings.

He has a chance to open 2009 with the Yankees and could quickly stabilize their middle relief corps. He has the potential to be the Yankees closer after Rivera retires, but Rivera has two years left on the three year contract extension he signed after the 2007 season.

NOTE: Only players with no more than 130 AB/50 IP in the majors qualify for this list.

Boston Red Sox's Top-Five Prospects for 2009

Ryan Fay — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 05:29:07 -0500

Having a strong minor-league system can fuel an organization for years to come. Quality young talent can propel an organization to new heights—see the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.

This time, we'll look at the five best prospects in the Boston Red Sox minor-league system. The Red Sox are consistently among the best teams in baseball and captured the World Series in 2004 and 2007.

They spend with the best of them, but they also develop their own talent. Players such as 2008 American League MVP Dustin Pedroia were drafted and groomed by the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 2009 Top-Five Prospects

1. Michael Bowden, RHP, 9/9/86 - Bowden, a 6'3" righthander from Winfield, IL, is nearly ready for the major leagues. Bowden reached three different levels this year, AA, AAA, and a spot start in the majors.

Overall, he pitched 149.1 innings, surrendered 119 hits, walked 30, and struck out 133. There's little to critique when it comes to numbers like that, and he did a good job keeping the ball in the park as well, serving up just 10 long balls all year.

Bowden, the 47th selection in the 2005 draft, is likely set for a return engagement with Pawtucket, but is capable of helping the Red Sox should a need arise. The parent club already has four starters under contract for 2009—Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Tim Wakefield.

They figure to be big players in the free-agent market, and Clay Buchholz is in the picture as well. Bowden's not far off, but it might be tough to break in.

2. Lars Anderson, 1B, 9/25/1987 - Boston selected Anderson in the 18th round of the 2006 draft, but the sweet swinging lefty has far exceeded the expectations of a typical 18th rounder.

Anderson had a tremendous season in 2008—in 439 at-bats at High-A Lancaster and Double A-Portland, he hit a combined .317 with 18 homers, 32 doubles, a .417 on-base percentage and a .517 slugging percentage.

The on-base and slugging percentages were even higher at Portland, .436 and .526 respectively, though his strikeout rate increased as well.

Anderson should return to Portland to begin for 2009, but will likely see a bump to AAA-Pawtucket sometime during the year. Current first baseman Kevin Youkilis is under control through 2010, possibly paving the way for Anderson to have the job in 2011.

3. Daniel Bard, RHP, 6/25/1985 - The hard throwing UNC product was brought into the fold after being taken 20th overall in the 2006 draft. He was drafted as a starter, but a disastrous 2007 season turned him into a reliever. That season, Bard walked 78 (against 47 strikeouts) in 75 innings and accumulated a 7.08 ERA.

Realizing that wasn't working, Bard was shifted to the 'pen for 2008 and the results were night and day.

Between Low-A Greenville and Portland, Bard hurled 77 innings, held opponents to a .158 BAA, walked 30 and struck out 107. His cumlative ERA was just 1.51. His walk rate went up quite a bit for Portland - 26 in 49.2 innings after just 4 in 28 innings for Greenville - but it's still an improvement over his 2007 levels.

Bard likely has shown enough to be promoted to Pawtucket to begin 2009, and if he can avoid excessive walks, a late 2009 debut could be in the works. He has the stuff to close, but with Jonathan Papelbon around, it won't happen in Beantown.

4. Josh Reddick, OF, 2/9/1987 - A native of Savannah, GA, Reddick was taken in the 17th round of the 2006 draft.

He had a fine debut for Greenville in 2007 (369 AB, .306, 18 HR, 17 2B, 883 OPS) and followed that up with another solid, albeit brief, showing in Greenville to begin 2008. It earned him a promotion to Lancaster, where he hit .343 in 312 AB with 17 HR, 11 2B, 8 3B, and a 968 OPS.

He showed enough in Lancaster that Boston bumped him to Portland, but it's there that Reddick experienced his first struggles as a professional. He hit just .214/.290/.436 in 117 AB and never got on track. Reddick also struggled in the Arizona Fall League, striking out 36 times in 95 AB with a line of .189/.210/.389.

Reddick can be too aggressive and could stand to draw more walks after walking just 39 times in 429 combined regular season AB. He'll return to Portland for 2009 and hope to regain the form that proved to be successful in Greenville and Lancaster.

Jason Bay is signed through 2009, J.D Drew through 2011, and Jacoby Ellsbury beyond that. He'll be ready sooner, but his best chance for a starting job might come after Drew's contract is up. Reddick has the potential to be a solid starting outfielder at the major league level.

5. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, 2/1/1990 - After spending 2007 with Boston's Dominican Summer League team, Pimentel, who hails from San Cristobal, quickly made his mark in the United States.

Pitching for Lowell of the New York Penn League, he made 13 appearances (11 starts) and racked up 63 innings. He gave up 51 hits (7 HR), walked 17, and fanned 61.

At 6'3"/186lbs, Pimentel has a good frame for a pitcher, and at 18, may not be done growing. His fastball resides in the low 90s and he also features a curve, a sinker, and a changeup.

Pimentel is likely ticketed for a full season in Greenville in 2009 and will probably be on a strict innings cap for the season. Pimentel, who was signed when he was 16, is a long ways off, but he is one Boston's most intriguing pitching prospects and bears watching next season. Boston can afford to be patient.

NOTE: Only players with no more than 130 AB/50 IP in the majors qualify for this list.

Baltimore Orioles' Top-Five Prospects for 2009

Ryan Fay — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 11:58:09 -0500

Having a strong minor-league system can fuel an organization for years to come. Quality young talent can propel an organization to new heights—see the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.

This time, we'll look at the five best prospects in the Baltimore Orioles' minor-league system. The Orioles are a once-proud franchise that has fallen on hard times in the last decade. Luckily for them, they have some potential difference makers in the pipeline. And since they're in the highly competitive American League East, they'll need them.

Baltimore Orioles' 2009 Top-Five Prospects

1. Matt Wieters, C, 5/21/86- The best hitting prospect in baseball.

He hit a combined .355 between High A-Frederick and AA-Bowie and showed a tremendous mix of power (27 HR, 22 2B) and patience (82 BB vs 76 K).

And that was his professional debut.

There's not many negatives with Wieters, the fifth-overall pick in the 2007 draft. The former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket will likely make his big league debut in 2009 and eventually become a franchise-caliber player.

Wieters looks like as sure of a thing as a prospect can be as well as somebody who could make an immediate impact upon arriving in the majors.

2. Chris Tillman, RHP, 4/15/88 - Tillman, tall and lanky at 6'5"/195lbs, was acquired last winter in the Erik Bedard trade and had little trouble adjusting to life in the Orioles system. Even though he was young for AA, Tillman dominated anyway.

He held opposing batters to a .227 average and struck out 154 in only 135 innings. He could stand to cut down on the walks (65), but after overpowering AA hitters, Tillman seems ready to open 2009 in AAA.

It's an imposing challenge for a 21-year-old pitcher, but Tillman doesn't have a lot left to prove in AA. Depending how quickly he adjusts, he could debut in Baltimore sometime in 2009, potentially towards the end of the season. There's not much blocking him.

3. Brian Matusz, LHP, 2/11/87 - Matusz, a San Diego State product, was the third overall selection in last season's draft, and the first pitcher drafted.

He signed too late to debut during the minor-league season but has looked strong in the Arizona Fall League.

In 22 innings, he's allowed 20 hits and five walks but has also fanned 27. He's given up a homer in five of his six appearances, but that's not a concern yet.

He doesn't have an overpowering fastball, but it sits in the low 90s and is complemented by an impressive array of offspeed offerings.

He'll likely begin 2009 with Frederick but could be moved aggressively, possibly debuting in Baltimore late in 2009 or early in 2010.

4. Jake Arrieta, RHP, 3/6/86- At one time, Arrieta was projected to be a top 10 pick in the 2007 draft. A poor spring for Texas Christian University plus hefty contract demands saw him tumble to the fifth round.

Baltimore is glad he did.

Arrieta has a mid-90s fastball and he used it en route to a .199 BAA and 120 punchouts in 113 innings for Frederick.

He was away from Frederick for a few weeks while he was on the 2008 USA Olympic baseball team—Arrieta threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball against China. His breaking pitches all have the potential to be good, but they all need work.

He also needs to reduce the free passes—he walked 51 in those 113 innings.

Arrieta should begin 2009 with Bowie and could surface in Baltimore at some point in 2010.

5. Brandon Erbe, P, 12/25/87- Erbe was a darling among prospectors after his breakout 2006 season, but a disappointing 2007 campaign for Frederick left many unsure what to make of him.

Erbe repeated the league in 2008 and rebounded nicely, throwing 150 innings, allowing 120 hits, and posting a strong 50/151 BB/K.

He had a 4.48 ERA (down from 6.34 in 2007) and while he allowed a few too many home runs, the other ratios were encouraging.

After spending two years in Frederick, look for Erbe to be tested with AA in 2009. At 21, he'd still be young for the level.

NOTE: Only players with no more than 130 AB/50 IP in the majors qualify for this list.

Merkin Valdez, Hong-Chih Kuo, Edwin Jackson: Three Future Closers?

Ryan Fay — Thu, 08 May 2008 07:42:28 -0400

Finding the next great thing is always a fun endeavor.

With that in mind, let's look at a few non-closers who could excel in a closers role, if given a chance.

Merkin Valdez, San Francisco Giants

By now, Merkin Valdez was supposed to be the ace of the Giants' pitching staff and one of the better pitchers in the league.

Things haven't worked out as planned.

Valdez struggled to develop the breaking pitches needed to survive as a starter, and worse yet, he needed Tommy John surgery after the 2006 season.

The Giants still think highly of Valdez. They carried him on their opening day roster this year even though he didn't throw a single pitch at any level in 2007 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Giants either had to carry Valdez from the get-go this year or risk losing him through waivers.

They know he has an arm that's too good to give away, and so far Valdez has validated their confidence in him. In 15.2 innings, Valdez has allowed two runs on 12 hits. He's walked six and has struck out 13.

Valdez, 26, has retained his electric stuff. His fastball has averaged 95.8 MPH this year and there's more in the tank if need be. He's also mixed in a few change-ups and sliders.

Current Giants closer Brian Wilson isn't in any immediate danger of losing his job, but he hasn't been lights out either. He's blown two saves, has a 3.86 ERA, and a 1.570 WHIP.

Over the course of a season, those types of numbers won't provide a lot of job security on a team that figures to win few games to begin with.

If Wilson is ever yanked from the closers role, Giants manager Bruce Bochy suggested Valdez could be the guy to replace him.

"That's where I see him eventually, possibly sooner rather than later, the guy helping out in later innings," he told the San Francisco Chronicle, last month.

Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kuo is a survivor. At 28, he's already had a pair of Tommy John surgeries. It hasn't had an ill-effect on his stuff as he's racked up 33 strikeouts in just 24.1 innings this season.

Kuo fits the mold of many closers. He brings the heat—mid-90s with ease—and has never been good enough to stick as a starter.

He's already been in and out of the rotation this season, but has been lethal out of the pen, including a three-and-two-thirds of an inning stint earlier this week, in which Kuo struck out eight of the 13 hitters he faced.

With his stuff and his penchant for striking hitters out (141 in 119 career big league innings), it's easy to see Kuo closing.

What's not easy is seeing him doing it for the Dodgers, who currently have 38-year-old Takashi Saito cemented in the role. Saito has converted 89.4 percent of his saves in his Dodger career and is in no danger of losing his job.

Since he's 38, Saito is on the tail end of his career, but it's assumed that Jonathan Broxton will take over for Saito when the day comes.

Broxton has been one of the National League's best eighth inning relievers over the past couple seasons, though he has blown 11 saves in his career while converting just five.

Edwin Jackson, Tampa Bay Rays

Jackson—like Valdez—was supposed to be fronting a major league rotation.

While Valdez battled injuries, Jackson has battled ineffectiveness. The 24-year-old has a 5.57 ERA in over 300 major league innings. This year is no different as Jackson has had a mix of great starts and clunkers and it has added up to a 4.98 ERA and a 1.490 WHIP.

With his chances at excelling in the rotation looking increasingly slim, why not try him in the bullpen with the goal of grooming him to replace 39-year-old Troy Percival in a year or two?

The Rays lack a closer in waiting, and they have several top pitching prospects to find room for in the next few seasons. There's only so many rotation spots to fill, especially with Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza entrenched in theirs.

Jackson has two pitches—a mid 90s fastball and a wicked slider. If he's able to stop worrying about developing a better third offering, he can focus on the two good ones he already has.

If he can improve his control, he has the stuff to be a good closer.

These three pitchers all have the important intangibles that are required to be a stand-out closer at the major league level. Only time will tell if that's what they become.

Walk This Way: Chicago Cubs Send Rich Hill to AAA

Ryan Fay — Sat, 03 May 2008 09:00:21 -0400

Rich Hill is breaking a lot of hearts this year.

Many fantasy owners expected the 28-year-old lefty to be a key piece of their rotation. But those expectations have been dashed so far. Hill has lost his ability to throw strikes and has walked 19 in 18.2 innings.

The bottom dropped out last night when he lasted just 0.2 innings due to four walks. Cubs manager Lou Piniella pulled the plug on Hill at that point and now the Cubs have done the same, sending their troubled starter back to AAA Iowa.

"I think he’ll go down to Iowa, get a few starts and I think you’ll see him back here pitching well for us," Piniella told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.

Hill was seemingly primed for another strong season this year. Almost all of his statistical indicators improved in 2007. He was striking out more hitters per nine innings while walking fewer batters — a clear sign of growth.

It resulted in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.90. Anything over 2.00 is good, and Hill was approaching 3.00. He was also allowing fewer homers per nine innings and he saw his ERA dip slightly as well.

Those positive trends make this sudden collapse perplexing. He was a very good starting pitcher last year, and he didn't have problems with walks last season. Hill walked 63 in 195 innings last year and no more than 12 in any month.

According to data on fangraphs.com, he threw almost two strikes for every ball in 2007. This year, he's thrown 159 balls and 194 strikes - a ratio that would spell trouble for any pitcher.

Even Piniella is surprised by the turn of events Hill has endured this year.

"So it’s very surprising to me...because last year he was the best strike-thrower we had," Piniella said in a recent interview with the Chicago Tribune.

Everyone says spring training stats don't matter, but Hill's spring now looks like it should have raised red flags. He walked 15 in 17 innings this spring, which mirrors what he's done since in the regular season.

Hill did have problems with walks early in his minor league career, but that can be expected for young pitchers at that stage in their careers.

Since then, Hill seemed to tighten his control, walking only 35 in 165 innings at AAA during 2005 and 2006.

There could be a number of causes of his current problems. He could be pitching through a hidden injury. His mechanics could be off, which would explain the lack of control and finish on his pitches.

It could also be something psychological. We've seen it before with the likes of Mark Wohlers and in the more distant past, Steve Blass.

Regardless of what's plaguing Hill, his fantasy owners have been devastated by his performance — or lack thereof — this season.

Owners in shallow one-year leagues might consider cutting bait if viable options are sitting in the free-agent pool. Those in keeper or dynasty leagues must hold out hope that his trip back to the minors cures him. Chances are, he's an important part of your long-term rotation in keeper or dynasty leagues.

In the meantime, the Cubs have tabbed Jon Lieber to replace Hill in the rotation. Sean Gallagher has been promoted from AAA to take Lieber's spot in the bullpen. Lieber can be a servicable stop-gap for the Cubs, but he is best left to those in deep leagues.

Gallagher would have been the more intriguing option from a fantasy perspective. In five starts spanning 29 innings at AAA, he had a 3.10 ERA and only allowed 21 hits and sported a 9/30 BB/K ratio.

Baked Zito? The Fall Of Barry Zito

Ryan Fay — Fri, 02 May 2008 13:13:49 -0400

This isn't what the San Francisco Giants had in mind.

When the Giants forked over $126 million for seven seasons of Barry Zito, they were hoping they landed a staff anchor for years to come. A proven and durable lefty - the type of pitcher that can hold up well into their 30's.

Instead, the Giants have been saddled with something more closely resembling a horse that ought to be sent to the glue factory.

Zito, 29, has appeared in 40 games (39 starts) for the Giants. He's totaled 225 innings and has surrendered 223 hits. That's not a bad hits-to-innings ratio, but Zito has a 98/142 BB/K in those 225 innings.

Generally, a pitcher should strike out two men for every man he walks, but Zito only registers 1.44 whiffs for every walk. Worse yet, he has an 11-19 record and a 4.93 in his time with the Giants.

Zito's decline pre-dates his time with the Giants. His K/9 rate has dipped every year since 2004, going from 6.89 in 04 to 6.74 in 05, 6.15 in 06, 6.00 in 07, and 3.45 so far in 2008. This is an important trend because it shows that Zito gradually lost his ability to dominate opposing hitters.

One reason why is that Zito doesn't throw as hard as he used to. When he won a Cy Young for Oakland in 2002, Zito's fastball sat between 88-92 MPH. That enabled him to set up his curveball, which was regarded as one of the best in the game.

Zito's fastball velocity has been dipping for a few seasons and now his average heater clocks in at 83.7 MPH according to data on fangraphs.com. Now that he isn't throwing his fastball as hard, it drastically reduces the effectiveness of his curveball.

According a report on The Sports Xchange, Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti doesn't have a lot of hope for Zito regaining his velocity.

"No... unless he has an operation, unless he does a Rod Beck and puts on 20 or 30 pounds and throws harder. But how can you throw harder? I've never seen it other than somebody getting hurt and getting a new arm."

Velocity isn't everything. Pitchers can be effective pitching in the low-to-mid 80's like Zito has been - see the likes of Greg Maddux, Jamie Moyer, and Mark Buehrle. But when you pitch at those speeds, you need to have control and command of your pitches.

You can be wild at 95, but not so much at 85. Zito's problem is that he isn't - and never has been - a big strike thrower. He walked between 80 and 99 batters every season between 2001 and 2007.

If Zito is going to fix whatever ails him, he's going to need to re-invent himself as a pitcher. That doesn't happen overnight and the Giants have sent the lefty to the bullpen this week.

Zito still is 29, so you can't write him off all together yet. However, given the fact that his decline has been brewing for years, there isn't a lot of reason to be optimistic either.

Future Finds: 5 Under-The-Radar Hitting Prospects

Ryan Fay — Thu, 01 May 2008 20:23:35 -0400

One of the best times of the year for fans who follow prospects comes during the winter, when Baseball America rolls out their list of the top 100 prospects in baseball. The lists are not an exact science, and no matter how hard someone tries, the highly volatile nature of prospects means you can never be exactly right.

Now that the minor league season is underway, it's time to check in with some prospects who might thrust themselves into the discussion of the better ones in the minors. This time, we'll look at five under-the-radar hitting prospects who, in the next couple years, could catapult themselves into Baseball America's list of the top 100 prospects in the game. The only qualifications are that they haven't already appeared on a Baseball America top 100 list or among Baseball America's list of the top 10 prospects in their respective organization.

Last time, we looked at five under-the-radar pitching prospects: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/19107-Future-Finds---5-Under-The-Radar-Pitching-Prospects

Onto the hitters:

Danny Carroll, 6'1/175, 1/6/1989, Throws R, Bats R, Organization: Seattle Mariners

The California native was taken in the third round last year by the Mariners and is off to a solid start in his pro career.

Carroll hit .323 in 201 AB in the Arizona League last summer and is currently hitting .339 in the Midwest League. One thing he hasn't done in his young pro career is hit one out of the park. Carroll doesn't project to have much power, but he's expected to hit for a high average, get on base, steal some bases, and score a lot of runs.

Carroll is a very instinctive player for a 19 year old and already has above average pitch recognition, something many players his age don't have.
He's at least a few seasons away, but if all breaks right, he could be something along the lines of a Jacoby Ellsbury type.

Cody Johnson, 6'4/195, 8/18/1988, Throws R, Bats L, Organization: Atlanta Braves

Johnson, a 2006 first rounder for the Braves, has the type of bat that could one day hit 30-40 homers in the big leagues. In 118 minor league games, Johnson has hit 23 homers along with 30 doubles and six triples. He's also shown off speed with 10 steals.

The power is there in a big way, but Johnson simply strikes out too often. In the same 122 games, he's struck out 164 times. He's walked 48 times. Johnson will need to cut down on the strikeouts if he wants to fulfill the lofty promise that he has. Otherwise, he might never get out of the minors. More advanced pitchers will eat him alive if he can't tighten up his plate discipline. Age is on his side – he's still a teenager until the tail end of the minor league season this year.

Andrew Lambo, 6'3/190, 8/11/1988, Throws L, Bats L, Organization: LA Dodgers

Hitting isn't Lambo's problem. It's off-the-field issues that have plagued him and its largely why he lasted until the fourth round in last June's draft.

"He's at his second high school after being kicked out of the first school, and he turned off scouts with his immaturity in numerous interviews this spring," Baseball America noted prior to the 2007 MLB Draft.

Lambo has been problem-free in his pro career so far and his bat hasn't let up either. In 54 games in the Gulf Coast League last year, Lambo hit .343 with a .440 OBP and a .519 slugging percentage. He smacked 15 doubles, legged out a triple, and went yard a handful of times. He also showed good plate discipline, walking 29 times against 34 strikeouts.

Moving up to the pitcher-friendly Midwest League this year, Lambo's plate discipline has slipped, as he's struck out 27 times in 24 games while walking just nine times. The rest of his game remains in tact - he has 9 doubles, a triple, and three home runs. Overall, he's batting .279 with a .344 OBP and a strong .512 SLG %.

As long as Lambo stays out of trouble, there's no reason to think he can't keep maturing as a hitter.

Pablo Sandoval, 5'11/245, 8/11/1986, Throws R, Bats S, Organization: San Francisco Giants

Pablo Sandoval is a bit of a post-hype sleeper. Sandoval came to prominence back in 2006 when he played in the Futures Game, a midseason showcase of some of the best prospects in baseball. He hasn't done anything of note since and consequently has fallen off many prospect lists.

Back in the California League to start 2008, Sandoval is trying to re-enter the prospect scene. After 90 at bats, he's at .444/.495/.867 - good enough for a 1.362 OPS. Those are the kinds of numbers Giants fans have been used to seeing from Barry Bonds. Sandoval has smashed 15 doubles along with one triple and seven homers. He has a respectable 9 walks against 14 strikeouts.

Those kind of numbers are virtually impossible to maintain, so expect Sandoval to come back to earth in the near future. However, he has a chance to be a switch-hitting catcher with power and is well worth watching. He might not be too far away from a promotion to Double A, where we'll get a better idea of his potential.

Mike Stanton, 6'5/205, 11/8/1989, Throws R, Bats R, Organization: Florida Marlins

Not to be confused with long-time reliever Mike Stanton, this Mike Stanton was a second round pick last year by the Marlins. Not surprisingly, with his imposing 6'5/205 frame, Stanton could have been a walk on USC's vaunted football team.

The Marlins should be glad he stuck to baseball. While he's extremely raw, he'll also be 18 years old all season and has plenty of time to develop. Right now, his biggest weakness is strike zone judgment. He's walked 7 times with 34 strikeouts in 93 at bats while playing for Greensboro of the South Atlantic League. At the same time, he's shown potential with 7 doubles, a triple, 3 homers, and a steal so far in 2008. Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook says his ceiling is as high any position player in the Marlins' system – a system that includes Cameron Maybin.

Patience will be required with Stanton, who according to Project Prospect, is the fourth youngest player in Low-A ball. He won't develop quickly and is several years from the majors. The payoff, however, could be huge. He could be one of those boom or bust prospects.

Future Finds: 5 Under-The-Radar Pitching Prospects

Ryan Fay — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 06:09:17 -0400

Now that the minor league season is underway, it's time to check in with some prospects who might thrust themselves into the discussion of the better ones in the minors. This time, we'll look at five under-the-radar pitching prospects who, in the next couple years, could catapult themselves into Baseball America's list of the top 100 prospects in the game. The only qualifications are that they haven't already appeared on a Baseball America top 100 list or among Baseball America's list of the top 10 prospects in their respective organization.

Jhoulys Chacin, 1/7/88, 6'1/168, Bats R, Throws R, Organization: Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have had considerable success with Latin America players in recent years. Pitchers like Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales were highly regarded pitching prospects who played integral roles in Colorado's surprise run to the World Series in 2007. Could Chacin be next?

Currently pitching for Asheville in the South Atlantic League, Chacin, who was signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2004, is off to a flying start. He has a 1.40 ERA after four starts that span 25.2 innings. He's only allowed 14 hits while walking nine and striking out 22. He's picking off where he left off last year, when he had an impressive 16 start stint in the Pioneer League. There, he threw 92 innings, allowing 85 hits and 26 hits. He fanned 77 and had a 3.13 ERA.

"He has an overpowering fastball and a good change and had excellent command of both pitches," Asheville manager Joe Mikulik told milb.com earlier this month. "He threw 91 pitches and his 89th touched 94 mph. Pretty impressive."

Mikulik added: ""He's very coachable and mature beyond his age," Mikulik said. "It's a pleasure to watch him pitch. He's got a great future."

A future that might have him among the top 100 prospects in baseball sooner rather than later.

Kelvin De La Cruz, 1/8/88, 6'5/187, Bats L, Throws L, Organization: Cleveland Indians

With C.C Sabathia likely leaving for greener pastures come winter, the Indians need to continue to develop young (and affordable) pitching in hopes of finding future building blocks for their rotation.

De La Cruz, who was born in La Vega, Dominican Republic, could be one of them.

It's easy to get excited about this lefty. At 6'5, he has the height that could make him an intimidating presence down the line – especially if he fills out his 187 pound frame. Like Chacin, De La Cruz has four starts in the young season, also while throwing in the South Atlantic League. He's racked up 19.2 innings, allowing 18 hits, 9 walks and striking out 18. He was solid in the NY Penn League last season, giving up just 41 hits in 54 innings while striking out 53. Control has been an issue - he walked 34 in those 54 innings last year and has 9 in 19 innings this year. Given the fact he's only 20, there's plenty of time to iron his control out.

"Kelvin De La Cruz has really looked good and thrown the ball well. A 19-year old 6'5" left-handed pitcher who throws 93 MPH is really fun to watch," Indians farm director Ross Atkins recently told theclevelandfan.com.

To see a clip of De La Cruz in action, click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_9Av-y3TmA

Jairo Heredia, 10/8/1989, 6'1/190, Bats R, Throws R, Organization: NY Yankees

The Yankees have found themselves blessed with a tremendous crop of young pitchers, most notably Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy. Someday, Heredia could find himself mentioned in the same breath.

Heredia, signed as a non-drafted free agent two summers ago, is pitching for Charleston in the South Atlantic League. What makes Heredia impressive is that he's currently the youngest pitcher in the league, competing against players up to several years older than he is. That has proved to be no challenge to date, as the native of the Dominican Republic has struck out 22 batters in only 20.2 innings while amassing a 3.48 ERA. He's allowing less than a hit per inning (19) and has handed out seven free passes. He's surrendered 4 homers on the year – too many for only 20 innings – but this may be a fluke as he only allowed 4 in 46.1 innings last year in the Gulf Coast League.

Trevor Reckling, 5/22/1989, 6'2/205, Bats L, Throws L, Organization: LA Angels

Trevor Reckling wasn't a big name entering the 2007 MLB Draft and ended up falling into the Angels' lap in the eighth round. So far, the New Jersey product been as good as some first round picks. In his pro debut last summer in the Arizona League, the 18 year old walked 7 men in 36 innings while striking out 55. He allowed 33 hits and it all resulted in a 2.75 ERA. After a rough debut in the Midwest League this year, he's settled back down in his subsequent two starts, allowing two runs in 10 innings along with 6 hits, 5 walks and 9 whiffs.

Reckling's fastball resides in the upper 80s, but it can touch the low 90's and could add velocity as he matures. His specialty, however, is a terrific curveball that could be his ticket the majors.

Eddie Bane, the director of scouting for the Angels, had this to say about Reckling last fall in an interview at theangelswin.com: "Trevor Reckling is a HS lefty that we got because of the hard work of Greg Mohrhardt and Mike Silvestri. That being said, I would have been extremely unhappy if we did not sign this young man. He has a legit Zito type curve and he is striking out everybody in Arizona. We are happy with Trevor."

Dae-Eun Rhee, 3/23/1989, 6'2/190, Bats L, Throws R, Organization: Chicago Cubs

This Korean native hopes to end the Cubs' poor luck with his fellow countrymen. The Cubs had previously invested heavily into the likes of first baseman Hee-Seop Choi and pitcher Jae-Kuk Ryu. Neither have amounted to anything, but Rhee is off to a good start.

Rhee, signed last July, is playing for Peoria in the Midwest League where he's the youngest pitcher on his team. He's started 3 games, totaling 16 innings while allowing 8 hits and a quartet of walks. He's also struck out 15. According to Baseball America, Rhee "opened eyes" during his stint in the instructional leagues last summer. He already throws 90-94 and has an exceptional change-up that "dives like a splitter."

Pitchers often are ruined by injuries, but this may not be an issue for Rhee, who Baseball America notes has a "balanced delivery that bodes well for his future health."After dealing with chronically injured pitchers like Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, that's music to the Cubs' ears.