Bleacher Report - Articles by Tom Haberstroh

10 Reasons Why Hank Steinbrenner Shouldn't Be Believed

Tom Haberstroh — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:55:32 -0400

Surprise, surprise. Hank Steinbrenner opens his mouth yet again. Mr. Pride Power Pinstripes begs for your mercy as the Yankees find themselves 8.5 games back behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.

Steinbrenner hypocritically says he's not "writing off the season," even though he has already looked to '09 by predicting that the Yankees "will win it next year."

What Hank Steinbrenner wants is for every Yankee fan to feel that the 2008 season was lost on the unluckiness of devastating injuries. Chalk it up to chance.

This statement tries to shield both the good and the bad contributions of the team because Steinbrenner wants you to believe that no one should be held accountable for the 2008 season. Of course, he forgets to mention that every team faces injuries to their stars, even those in his own division. It's part of the game.

Management prepares for each season with the expectation that they will face a lot of injuries to their team. This is why they have a strong bench of capable players that can step right in and perform. Additionally, having a strong minor-league system of young, talented players will be an asset to the major-league club when injuries inevitably arise.

The Yankees are fully capable of winning more games than they have, but the bottom line is that some key players have underperformed.

Don't offer the slightest impression of pity to Steinbrenner. His Yankees are absolutely capable of winning ballgames. Here are 10 things that Hank should remember.

1. They're getting an unlikely career year of out Johnny Damon.

I don't think anyone saw J.D. bouncing back this year to the level he has. At leadoff, Damon is batting an AL-best .325 and getting on base at almost a .400 clip. He's everything the Yankees could ask for at the top of the lineup. Writing off the 2008 season would undoubtedly overlook Damon's contributions. Imagine where they'd be without him.

2. A-Rod got hurt? David Ortiz did, too, and for a larger amount of time.

Rodriguez has missed 20 games this year due to injury; which is a lot of games but not irrecoverably long. The Red Sox, who lead the Yankees by four games, lost their best hitter David Ortiz for 50 games, which is more than double the length of A-Rod's absence. You don't see the Red Sox whining and making excuses about injuries.

3. Xavier Nady is better than Hideki Matsui.

Unfortunately, the Brett Gardner Era didn't survive past the trade deadline. The Yankees dealt for Pittsburgh outfielder Xavier Nady to replace Matsui's bat in the lineup and upgrade their fielding.

Much like the Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez, Xavier Nady is a much better bet going forward than Hideki Matsui. Even though Matsui had a good start to the season, Nady's numbers beat Matsui's across the board, and Nady is five years younger.

Nady should supplant Matsui as the Yankees' future left fielder and Matsui should be delegated to designated hitter. From here on out, expect 34-year-old Hideki Matsui's production to drop and his injury rate to rise.

4. The bullpen is very weak.

By moving Joba into the rotation and trading Farnsworth for a catcher, the Yankees forced young, unproven relievers to pick up the slack and get the ball to Mariano Rivera. Let's not forget that Edwar Ramirez had a 8.14 ERA last year, and Jose Veras hasn't posted an ERA under 4.00 in his career until this year.

The Yankees front office assumed Damaso Marte would come in and replace Farnsworth, but he certainly isn't the answer as he's allowed nine runs in seven-and-one-third innings and almost two baserunners an inning.

Was Hank Steinbrenner really expecting these guys to be an integral part of a World Series bullpen? This isn't about injuries. It's about poor management.

5. The Joba Tug of War.

You really can't expect a 22-year old to be pulled from the starting rotation to relief and then back into the starting rotation and remain healthy. Whether it's Steinbrenner or Cashman to blame, moving Joba into the rotation during the midseason was a huge risk. Risky decisions do have a pitfall: failure. If anyone is to blame for this injury, it's the front office.

6. Ivan Rodriguez isn't a slouch.

It's not the end of the world when surefire Hall of Famer Pudge Rodriguez calls games for your team. Using the injury-excuse doesn't work when you have Pudge behind the plate. He's not the same hitter as he was when he was a Ranger, but no one should be sorry for the Yankees with him behind the plate

7. Melky Cabrera is a minor leaguer.

Say hello to the worst hitting center fielder in the league. How this guy gets a free pass, I have no idea. His hitting line is .243/.297/.338 and his OPS ranks 32nd out of 33 qualified outfielders.

He makes an out over 70 percent of the time he steps up to the plate and has only 21 extra-base hits in over 400 at-bats. He doesn't steal bases, he doesn't hit the ball, he doesn't hit for power, and he doesn't get on base. There's no valid reason he should be in the majors.

8. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes weren't good bets in the first place.

Young pitchers get hurt, a lot. Relying on 22-year old Phil Hughes and 23-year old Ian Kennedy to be a big part of your starting rotation isn't a good idea. Having no backup plan is an even worse idea. Signing Sidney Ponson and Victor Zambrano doesn't count as having a plan.

9. The Payroll.

With a $209 million payroll, you should be allocating some money to a bench, in case players get injured. There are no excuses when your resources are that vast.

10. Gasp—what about Derek Jeter?

On any normal year, I'd expect an uproar if I called out Jeter for the Yankees' bad season. But this year, I think Yankee fans know it but don't want to admit it. You cannot overlook the fact that your captain and most famous player on the team is having the worst season of his career.

His numbers are well below his career levels, and although he's been nicked around this year, he has never been one to blame injury, like Hank has.

Cano and Abreu have certainly had their struggles, but no one is as important as Derek Jeter, who bats before the meat of the lineup.

Baseball's Biggest Non-Stories Heading Into the Second Half

Tom Haberstroh — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 20:11:00 -0400

Here are the baseball stories that you won’t find on the sports-media headlines because...well, probably because Ted Thompson, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers aren’t involved.

The A’s Can Catch the Angels

Many people point to the Harden trade as a signal that Billy Beane has thrown in the towel for the 2008 season.

I see it differently. So should you.

Beane astutely understood that Rich Harden’s market value had reached its peak after a blistering first half. Over 13 starts, he had a 2.34 ERA and struck out 92 batters in 77 innings. For comparison, Harden had made 13 starts combined, during the 2006 and 2007 seasons.

Injuries were the only thing holding Harden from becoming a top-10 starter in baseball. The A’s brass must have been anticipating this moment to deal for years.

Much like he unloaded Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton in the winter of 2004, Billy Beane received a package of prospects for the long haul. Consider Sean Gallagher the Danny Haren of this bundle.

Just 22-years old, Gallagher sports an impressive 4.25 ERA in his debut season. Looking back at Danny Haren’s first season in the majors, we see that he had a 5.08 ERA in 72-2/3 innings when he was just 22-years old. We all know how he turned out.

Another piece of the Harden trade, Matt Murton, has already proved he can hit in the bigs, despite falling out of the Cubs' good graces. Murton’s career .810 OPS should serve well in left field, and he will push Jack Cust to the designated-hitter role, where he belongs.

It will be a tough road to the playoffs, as he A’s find themselves six games back behind the Angels and 6.5 games back in the Wild Card.

However, the A’s have a lot to be excited about.

The A’s have allowed the fewest runs in the majors and 31 fewer than the next best team. So if they had a surplus of anything, it was quality pitching. Their huge run differential (+65) and their Pythagorean W-L record indicate that the A’s should be four games better rather than 51-44.

The Angels, on the other hand, have played way over their heads, with a Pythagorean W-L of 50-45 and have a run differential of just +21.

Chalk it up to a spell of unluckiness that the A’s aren’t ahead of the Angels right now. Don’t be surprised if they switch spots in the near future. I know Billy won’t be.

Not a Dominant Team in Baseball

If you listened to New York sports radio for a few minutes these days, you’d probably think that the Mets are on pace to win 115 games and the Yankees were destined to be delegated to the Independent League.

Not so. In fact, the Mets are merely one game ahead of the Yankees and faring no better than the Brewers or the A’s.

There’s no parity in baseball you say?

The Yankees have the same record as the Marlins, who have spent less on their roster than the Yankees have on Giambi this year. The second highest payroll belongs to the Mets, and they have a worse record than the second lowest spending team, the Tampa Bay Rays.

No team in baseball is projected to win 100 games this year, and the NL West’s division leader isn’t above .500. Not only that, in five out of the six divisions, the lead is less than two games.

The tight competition should make teams yearn for four Wild Card spots in October. And as we all know, there’s only ONE OCTOBER!

Derek Jeter Is Having His Worst Season

Hank Steinbrenner’s mouth has started several controversies this year, but let me mention something he probably refuses to admit: Jeter has been mediocre this season.

Why hasn't anyone brought up the fact that a player who is making $21.6 million this year has a worse OPS than Ryan Theriot?

Derek Jeter is batting .284 /.345/.395 (or a .740 OPS) while the league average is .745. He’s never batted below .290 in a season.

It’s his worst hitting first-half performance since he sported a .730 OPS in the first half of the 1996 season, his first full season in the majors. To make matters worse, fellow New York shortstop Jose Reyes is posting better numbers across the board than “Jetes”.

Don’t think Jeter’s contributions can be measured solely by his bat? Well, Eric Hinske’s six stolen bases thwarts Derek Jeter’s total. Yes, Eric Hinske.

For all the troubles the third-place Yankees have had this season, you’d think that Jeter’s ineptitude would be talked about more often.

Jeter’s Not Alone

A.L. shortstops have been absolutely terrible this year. Sure, Miguel Tejada, Nomar Garciaparra, and Alex Rodriguez are no longer star shortstops in the American League, but their replacements are pathetic.

Consider these factoids.

All-Star Michael Young is the only A.L. regular shortstop with a batting average higher than .285. The five regular shortstops in the AL East have a combined 13 HRs or the same as J.J. Hardy of the Milwaukee Brewers. Freddie Bynum and Tony Pena Jr. have amassed 293 at-bats this season.

I still cannot wrap my head around the fact that teams continue to allow Freddie Bynum and Tony Pena Jr. to step into the batters box. I’m serious. I’ve thought about this for a long time.

A.L. Shortstops Are Not Alone

The American League may have snagged their 12th straight All-Star Game victory, but they should feel very lucky.

American League hitting, as a whole, hasn’t been this bad in about 15 years. Runs, hits, and home-run rates are all much lower than they have been. A.L. teams haven’t hit this badly (9.1 hits per game) since 1992 when they compiled a paltry 8.9 H/G. They also haven’t had this low of a home-run rate (0.96) since 1993, when A.L. teams hit 0.92 home runs a game.

Is better pitching to blame?

New Era of Elite Starting Pitchers

Even though the All-Star Game is not the best measuring stick for the best players in the game, it does serve as a barometer of whom the fans, coaches, and players feel deserves a spot.

This All-Star Game may be the sign of younger things to come. For the first time, the names John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Curt Schilling were not on the roll for the All-Star Game—ironic, given the Hall of Fame ceremony before the game.

Just to illustrate how young the starters elected to the All-Star Game are, none of the top-20 active wins leaders were in this All-Star Game, and only Roy Halladay and Carlos Zambrano are listed in the top 50.

The Infamous Omar Minaya Trade

Just before the All-Star break in 2002, the Montreal Expos found themselves in the middle of the NL Wild-Card race. Knowing that it may be the last time they might have the chance to make the playoffs, then-GM Omar Minaya executed a steal of a trade with the Cleveland Indians.

Minaya sent a few minor-league prospects along with Lee Stevens for one of the game's top pitchers, Bartolo Colon.

And by steal, I mean for Indians GM Mark Shapiro. The Expos finished a game out of the Wild Card that year. Oh, and those prospects were Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips.

The Upton Brothers Are Actually Identical Twins

You might not find this as cool as I do, but here you go anyway. B.J. Upton’s OPS is .787. His younger brother Justin has a .786 OPS. Maybe Justin hasn’t developed his old-man strength yet?

MLB: Year of the No. 1 Draft Picks

Tom Haberstroh — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 21:16:00 -0400

The MLB draft receives substantially less attention than any of the four major sports. It's understandable, since baseball draftees have a much longer road to the big stage and less publicity coming out of high school and college.

However, the No. 1 picks in baseball are undoubtedly more successful than the NFL and NBA.

Here's baseball's top resume:

2001 #1 pick Joe Mauer leads the AL in batting average at .335.
2000 #1 pick Adrian Gonzalez leads the NL in RBI and stands tied for third in the NL with 20 home runs.
1999 #1 pick Josh Hamilton leads the AL in HR and RBI, while ranking 5th in OPS and 7th in batting average
1998 #1 pick Pat Burrell is second in the NL in walks, fifth in OPS and seventh in home runs.
1993 #1 pick Alex Rodriguez is runner-up for the AL batting title and third in OPS.
1990 #1 pick Chipper Jones leads the NL in hitting and OBP and second in OPS.
1987 #1 pick Ken Griffey Jr. hit his 600th home run earlier this year and leads all active players in career home runs.

Oh, and 2005 #1 pick Justin Upton is third in the NL in strikeouts. The NBA has Allen Iverson and LeBron James, the NFL has Peyton and Eli Manning, but these #1's are out of their league. Are top picks in baseball simply more likely to be sure-fire stars than football and basketball?

Sidney Ponson Returns—He's Baaack

Tom Haberstroh — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 18:47:00 -0400

I guess the Yankees needed an answer to the Red Sox signing Bartolo Colon.

The rotund Sidney Ponson has rejoined the Yankees after he was released by the Rangers just two days ago. I really thought that Yankees were a well-run franchise, but this is pushing it.

There are only two plausible explanations for inking him to a deal: he has a respectable 3.88 ERA in nine starts and he has averaged over six innings per start. But that's about it.

Lets look a little closer. He's really a hitter's dream, as he has posted WHIPs of 1.46, 1.88, 1.69, 1.73, and 1.55 the last five seasons. He has the seventh worst strikeout rate in the majors among starters with at least 40 innings pitched.

It's not like he's pitched against formidable teams either. The best offense he's faced is the Minnesota Twins who are 14th in the majors in runs per game. Every other offense is average at best (OAK, TB, CLE, HOU, SEA and KC).

Moreover, the Yankees couldn't possibly think that his 2006 stint in the Bronx instilled any confidence that he's still a serviceable major league pitcher. In three starts, he allowed 16 runs and 24 base runners in 12 innings. After the third start, the Yankees released him—for good reason.

The best part is that the Rangers released Ponson for disciplinary reasons. It had nothing to do with his on-field performance. I really can't see why the Yankees actually want this guy in their rotation.

Dusty Baker Needs His Head Checked

Tom Haberstroh — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 21:30:00 -0400

If, for some terribly unfortunate reason, my GM signed Corey Patterson to play for my team, I wouldn't start him. Maybe an occasional pinch-run, but that's about it.

He's just a bad hitter. Of players with at least 150 plate appearances this season, Corey Patterson has the worst on-base percentage in the league (emphasis very much mine).

So, what does Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker do with him?

Bat him leadoff.

Mind you, he's batting in front of guys like Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Adam Dunn, and Ken Griffey Jr. Mind you, he's gotten on base 30 times in 131 plate appearances out of the leadoff position. Mind you, he's failed to get on base 77 percent of the time for them. Mind you, that's terrible.

I'm pointing to my head and pointing to you, Dusty. Mind. You.

The "Top Three/Bottom Three" Phenomenon

Tom Haberstroh — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 18:56:00 -0400

Who needs $200 million anyway?

As I write this, the three lowest-payroll teams in baseball (Marlins, Rays, and A's) have a better record than the top three payrolls (Yankees, Mets, and Tigers).

The Marlins continue to exceed expectations. They're three games back in the NL East and six games over .500. In the offseason, they unloaded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, in an effort to cut a third of their payroll, to a league-low $21 million.

For what its worth, the Yankees are paying Alex Rodriguez $28 million this year, and they find themselves with a worse record than the Marlins.

The Marlins have received huge contributions from unlikely guys, like second baseman Dan Uggla (156 OPS+), third baseman Jorge Cantu (121 OPS+), and outfielder Cody Ross (.503 SLG). None of those three are making more than $500,000 this year.

Cantu has replaced Cabrera at third, and he has hit more home runs and has a higher OPS than his predecessor so far this season. You didn't need me to tell you that he's making a fraction of what Cabrera makes.

And what about Andrew Miller? The 23-year old has a 2.77 ERA in his last nine starts, and he has been one of the best starting pitchers in the National League during the months of May and June. Again, you didn't need me to tell you that he makes a fraction of what Dontrelle Willis makes.

Once again, the Marlins seem to time the right moment to sell-high on their big players and find cheap, young players to fill in. I commented on Rich Lederer's recent column over at The Baseball Analysts and pointed out the 'Top Three/Bottom Three' phenomenon.

Rich responded with "just as practice doesn't make perfect...perfect practice makes perfect, spending does not equal success...only wise spending equals success."

I totally agree.

Now, let's just see if this can hold up throughout the rest of the season.

Run Rates and Base Moods: Ellsbury's a Happy Guy, Schneider's Not

Tom Haberstroh — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:39:00 -0400

Earlier today, my brother said to me, "Look at Rickie Weeks, he has more runs than hits! When was the last time someone this far into the season had more runs than hits?"

I didn't have to go back at all to find the answer. This year, Jacoby Ellsbury has 19 runs and only 16 hits. Interestingly enough, teammate Dustin Pedroia has the second most hits in the league (32) yet he only has 13 runs. The two guys who hit in front of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz have very different scoring ratios. How weird is that?

Speed, outs circumstance, and batting trends of the following batters are some of the variables that can cause the wide discrepancy. Additionally, there has only been about 20 games this season these samples are relatively small.

Nonetheless, it is still fun to analyze. To see who scores at the highest/lowest rate every time they get on base (which I called the Run Ratio), I chose to include the top 80 players in OBP that have at least 50 plate appearances so far this season. These guys would have more to complain about than those who do not get on-base well.

Most Frustrated Base Runners

Player	Team	Run Rate
Brian Schneider	NTM	4.3%
Troy Glaus	STL	15.6%
Billy Butler	KAN	18.8%
Luke Scott	BAL	19.4%
Hideki Matsui	NYY	20.6%
Lyle Overbay	TOR	21.9%
Brad Hawpe	COL	22.6%
Nick Johnson	WAS	22.6%
Sean Casey	BOS	22.7%
Milton Bradley	TEX	23.5%

Poor Brian Schneider. He doesn't have any extra base hits yet so he doesn't have too much to gripe about. Still, he's only touched the plate once this year in the 23 times he's gotten to first. And, THEN, he has to sprint to throw on the catcher's pads for the next inning. You gotta feel for the guy.

The biggest surprise when I ran the study was that Chone Figgins finds himself 12th on this list. He's lead off every game for the Angels this year and has a .469 OBP. The slumps of #3 hitter Gary Matthews Jr and #5 hitter Garret Anderson has a lot to do with it. He is 7 for 10 on the basepaths and is the only one in the top 15 that has more than one stolen base. Speed truly does not belong on this list and neither do leadoff hitters. Figgins is both.

For what it's worth, Dustin Pedroia ranks 27th on this list and has the worst Run Rate of any eligible second baseman.

Most Satisfied Base Runners

Player	Team	Run Rate
Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	61.29%
Conor Jackson	ARI	59.38%
Mark Reynolds	ARI	59.38%
Carlos Quentin	CHW	55.56%
Ryan Church	NYM	54.84%
Lance Berkman	HOU	52.94%
Ryan Ludwick	STL	50.00%
Aramis Ramirez	CHC	50.00%
Eric Hinske	TAM	50.00%
Derrek Lee	CHC	48.72%

The Mets and Cardinals are the only teams that have players on both lists. Ryan Church bats either 2nd, 6th, and 7th whereas Schneider has only bat in front of the pitcher and Jose Reyes. Ludwick, Glaus and Rick Ankiel rotate in and out of the 4th and 5th spots in the line up so Glaus' lack of speed could be a huge factor.

And there's Jacoby at the top of the list. I wouldn't call him lucky since he's so fast. I doubt Jacoby can keep this rate up but he has as good of a chance as any with his speed, place in the lineup, and on-base skills. It's more fun to think that he's just that much faster than Pedroia.

Atop the NL East: Florida Marlins Doing It Again

Tom Haberstroh — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 19:20:00 -0400

The Marlins are the youngest team in baseball and they're the cheapest team in baseball. Five of the six pitchers who've started a game have yet to celebrate their 26th birthday. Four of the those starters are making about the league minimum. 12 of their 14 position players make less than a million dollars. In Saturday's win over the Washington Nationals, none of their starters were older than 29 years old or made more than $500,000.

And they lead the NL East.

Let's go back to October of 2003. Remember when the Marlins shocked everybody and won that World Series over the Yankees? Despite having the sixth smallest payroll in the league, that team was stacked. Do the names Miguel Cabrera, Derrek Lee, Pudge Rodriguez, AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis, Mike Lowell, Ugueth Urbina, and Juan Pierre ring a bell?

After they carried Beckett off the field in 2003, they held a fire sale on the shores of South Beach. The Marlins management let many sign for more money elsewhere or they parlayed them into young, cheap prospects.

Several key players this year were pieces of those trades. Most will remember that phenom Hanley Ramirez was shipped over in the trade with the Red Sox that involved Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.

However, few will remember that Renyel Pinto, who has a 0.69 ERA and five holds in 13 innings of relief this year, was part of the bundle in the Juan Pierre trade. He's just 25 years old, has a 3.11 ERA in 101.3 innings in his time with the Marlins, and averages just about a strikeout per inning. And his last name is Pinto.

In a very controversial move, the Marlins swapped Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera for six prospects including lefty starter Andrew Miller and top prospect Cameron Maybin among others. Even though he sports a 9.68 ERA, the 23-year old Miller has struck out 18 batters in 17.2 innings this year and remains a big-time prospect. Maybin is OPSing .900 in Double-A Carolina and will be ripe for a call up later in the season. He's just 21 by the way. Also in the deal, Burke Badenhop has started two games this year and Mike Rabelo is a fairly regular catcher for the big league club.

In Detroit, Dontrelle Willis is on the DL after just two starts while Miguel Cabrera has gotten off to a lukewarm start. Juan Pierre is fighting for playing time in Los Angeles and batting .282/.300/.333. In Boston, Mike Lowell is on the DL. Josh Beckett started the year off on the DL. So they trade Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, and Juan Pierre and they receive several quality starting pitchers, a star shortstop, a big-league catcher, a top setup man, a top prospect, and other quality prospects to boot.

Yeah, I'd say the Marlins pretty frugal-- and good.

Detroit Tigers Struggle with Pitching

Tom Haberstroh — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 17:14:00 -0400

A lot of been said about the troubles of the Detroit Tigers lineup this year. Some baseball analysts even predicted they'd score 1000 runs this year. They'll need to score about 6.5 runs per game in order to do that. They're averaging just over 4 runs per game as is.

But the real reason that they've started out 6-13 this year is the struggles of the pitching staff. They've allowed 117 runs in their first 19 games. The last time they did that was in 7 years ago when the went 66-96.

Nate Robertson's loss to the Blue Jays today runs up the Starters ERA to 6.10. Compared to the ERA of the bullpen (4.95), it is clear that the starting pitching needs to be much improved.

Dontrelle Willis will most likely need a couple of rehab starts before he rejoins the starting rotation, so you can expect Galarraga to stick in the rotation for the time being. Nate Robertson, however, has recently complained of soreness in his lat muscle and gave up 5 runs today. Don't be surprised if Robertson is put on the DL and replaced by Triple-A pitcher Virgil Vasquez. Look for Verlander and Rogers to rebound.