Bleacher Report - Articles by Kanka

Notre Dame Football Preview: Washington State

Kanka — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:58:00 -0400

Washington State Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

No. 34 Logwone Mitz is listed as Washington State's new starting running back. That's a bit of a surprise, considering his 2.9 yards per carry average is a step back from the 3.3 YPC of the guy he replaced, No. 31 Dwight Tardy.

But the 229-pound Mitz, 204-pound Tardy, and 197-pound No. 32 Carl Winston each bring something different to the table, so look for a mix of all three backs. Mitz is averaging five carries and 16 yards per game, Tardy eight for 26.6, and Winston seven for 34.7.

Washington State does not employ a fullback, and quarterback No. 10 Jeff Tuel, does not run much unless it's backwards (the Cougars are giving up five sacks per game). However, a handful of Washington State receivers have recorded carries with varying success, so that is something to look out for.

Notre Dame's run defense is still a work in progress, giving up 127 yards per game. Safeties Kyle McCarthy and Harrison Smith lead the team in tackles, but linebackers Brian Smith and Manti Te'o are quickly gaining on them. Te'o has been especially impressive, leading the team in tackles ever since he was inserted into the starting lineup.

Also gaining on the leaders is defensive end Kapron Lewis-Moore, who's quietly putting together a solid season with 28 tackles, five for a loss.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Washington State Run Defense

Armando Allen continues to pace the Irish run game, averaging 17 carries and 85.7 yards per game. Robert Hughes has been solid in his own right, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and matching Allen's team lead with three rushing touchdowns.

If all goes well for the Irish Jonas Gray and Theo Riddick will be fighting for carries late in the game. As a sign of the vast improvement in the offensive line, Gray and fullback James Aldridge are the only Irish runners averaging less than four yards per carry this year. Of course, it won't take much for Gray to reach that mark, as he's already at 3.8 YPC.

Washington State's run defense is, bluntly, awful. Per game, the team is giving up 215.4 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Per carry, they're giving up 5.8 yards. It's hard to get the ball back when an opponent can pick up first downs in just two rushing attempts.

Predictably, the leading tacklers on this team are its safeties, No. 21 Chima Nwachukwu (55) and No. 26 Xavier Hicks. Unfortunately for the Cougars, linebacker No. 46 Louis Bland—who is third on the team with 42 tackles and tied for first with 4.0 tackles for a loss—is not on the depth chart after suffering a knee injury.

Washington State Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Freshman Jeff Tuel has been a pleasant surpise for the Cougars. In four games, he's completed 61.4 percent of his passes with an efficiency rating of 132.7. He's averaging 165.5 yards per game with four touchdowns to three interceptions. On the average day, Tuel will attempt 22 passes and complete 13 or 14 of them.

Washington State runs a base 1 RB/1 TE/3 WR set, so it's no surprise that Jeff Tuel's top four targets this year have been receivers. No. 84 Jared Karstetter. No. 1 Gino Simone, No. 2 Daniel Blackledge, and No. 12 Jeffrey Solomon are each averaging multiple catches per game. Karstetter is leading the way with 48.1 yards per game and three touchdown catches.

Like many teams trying to find an identity with their passing game, Washington State has a slew of players averaging one catch per game. Notable are running back Dwight Tardy, tight end No. 14 Tony Thompson, and receiver No. 80 Johnny Forzani, who has a 99-yard touchdown to his credit this year.

Notre Dame needed to make some changes to its secondary, and last week it did. This week they become official on the depth chart. Kyle McCarthy, leading the team with five interceptions, moves from strong safety to free safety. Sergio Brown moves from nickelback to strong safety. Jamoris Slaughter, who struggled to break into the rotation at corner, will split time with Brown at safety, like the two did against Boston College.

Meanwhile, Harrison Smith is now the "OR" starter at SAM linebacker behind Darius Fleming. To me, that means he'll continue the role he played against BC as a hybrid linebacker/nickelback on passing downs.

With Washington State using at least three receivers, the Irish will have to counter with that nickel look quite a bit. Hopefully, Notre Dame will continue what it did last week and sub in a talented corner for Harrison Smith when needed.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Washington State Pass Defense

Jimmy Clausen. Jimmy Clausen. Jimmy Clausen.

Clausen continues to impress, even if his average has dipped just below 300 yards per game. On a typical Saturday, Clausen will complete 21 of 33 passes (65.2 percent) for 292.9 yards and at least two touchdowns.

Clausen's favorite target by far is Golden Tate. Tate has not only kept his quarterback in the Heisman race, he's also starting to garner some attention for himself. Golden is averaging seven catches, 121 yards and a touchdown per game.

Coming in a distant second is Kyle Rudolph, whose production has taken a hit in October for a number of reasons. Rudolph is still averaging 41 yards and at least three catches per game. Robby Parris, Duval Kamara, and Armando Allen are each averaging at least two catches per game.

Notre Dame's receiving corps have really shown its depth, even with Rudolph's struggles, the injuries to Parris and Michael Floyd and the lingering effects of Shaq Evans's injuries. John Goodman has begun to establish himself as a reliable option on the outside, and Roby Toma has played his way into the mix at slot receiver.

Washington State's pass defense looks downright respectable compared to its run defense. The Cougars are giving up 284.1 yards per game in the air and have surrendered 13 passing touchdowns in seven games.

The Cougars have struggled to get to the quarterback, recording only seven sacks in as many contests. Ends No. 89 Travis Long and No. 96 Casey Hamlett lead the way with two apiece. WSU has had some success in the interception game, recording eight picks. Backup WILL linebacker No. 13 Myron Beck has two interceptions, including one that he ran back for a 67-yard touchdown.

Special Teams

Washington State kicker No. 18 Nico Grasu has struggled this year, converting only six of his 10 field goal attempts. He did convert on a 44-yarder against Stanford, though. For the Irish, Nick Tausch has now made 12 straight after missing the first attempt of his career.

No. 8 Reid Forrest punts for the Cougars. Forrest is a dark horse for team MVP, as he's averaging 43.8 yards per punt with a long of 65. Eight of his 49 punts have gone for 50 yards or more. Washington State's punt coverage team is giving up 12.2 yards per return. Ben Turk has struggled as Notre Dame's punter, and he's now listed as the "OR" option with Eric Maust on the depth chart. Turk is averaging just 35.7 yards per kick, compared to 39.8 for Maust. On top of that, it doesn't help that the Irish punt coverage team is giving up 17.7 yards per return.

Dwight Tardy and Carl Winston are the WSU kick returners. Tardy is averaging 18.6 yards per return with a long of 38. Winston is averaging 14.8 yards per return with a long of 24. David Ruffer has been impressive as the Irish kickoff specialist. He's averaging 62.2 yards per kick. But Notre Dame's kickoff team is surrendering 20.5 yards per return, giving opponents an average start on the 28.

Theo Riddick has become the primary kick returner for Notre Dame. He's averaging 23.8 yards per return with a long of 38. Nico Grasu also kicks off for the Cougars. He's averaging 59.6 yards per kick with three touchbacks in 12 tries. But Grasu's effort is somewhat wasted by a WSU kick coverage team giving up 26.9 yards per return. From that, Washington State opponents are getting an average start on the 35 yard line.

Jeffrey Solomon returns punts for Washington State. He's averaging a mere 6.4 yards per return with a long of 21. Golden Tate is Notre Dame's punt returner. He's now averaging 7.8 yards per return, with a long of 23.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Jonas Gray, Theo Riddick, Sergio Brown, Harrison Smith, Ben Turk, Golden Tate

Prediction

Notre Dame 40, Washington State 15

Notre Dame Football Preview: Boston College

Kanka — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:28:00 -0400

Boston College Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

The Boston College offense is heavily run-oriented this year, averaging nearly 37 carries per game to 25 pass attempts. The workhorse of the Eagles run game is No. 2 Montel Harris . Harris is averaging 21 carries and 108 yards per game. He's also averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has 10 touchdowns on the season.

Harris is spelled by No. 29 Rolandan Finch and the diminuitive No. 1 Josh Haden . Haden is averaging eight carries and 30 yards per game, while Finch is averaging five carries and 22 yards per.

BC's starting quarterback, No. 15 Dave Schinskie , is not a threat with his legs. However, his backups No. 7 Justin Tuggle and No. 16 Mike Marscovetra are, so look for them to be sprinkled into the game against the Irish. Outside of Tuggle, Marscovetra, and the running backs, no Eagle has recorded a carry. But that doesn't mean BC won't pull out all the stops for this game.

Notre Dame's run defense plays right into Boston College's strengths. An inexperienced front seven for the Irish has given up 136.5 yards per game on the ground this year. All five of Notre Dame's starting defensive backs (counting nickel Sergio Brown ) are among the top nine in tackles for the Irish. Kyle McCarthy leads the team with 54 tackles, 18 more than his nearest competition (fellow safety Harrison Smith ), and 20 more than any member of the front seven (linebacker Brian Smith ).

The Irish have been getting into the backfield, registering 40 tackles for loss in six games, but at this point most Irish fans would settle for more tackles within three yards of the line of scrimmage.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Boston College Run Defense

The Irish ground game has vastly improve this year, thanks largely to the hard, downhill running of Armando Allen and Robert Hughes . Allen is averaging 16 carries and 83 yards per game, while Hughes is adding six carries for 29 yards. Both are right around 5.0 yards per carry.

Not to be outdone, Golden Tate is averaging two carries and 16 yards per game, for 7.0 yards per carry. Jonas Gray , Theo Riddick , Dayne Crist , James Aldridge , and LepreCat-QB-of-the-week John Goodman have also made positive contributions to the Irish running game.

Boston College is giving up 117 yards per game on the ground. That's not a good number, but certainly not a bad one either. Freshman linebacker No. 40 Luke Kuechly leads BC with 69 tackles, more than double anyone else on the team. So look for the Irish to run their base counter plays quite a bit to keep this freshman off balance (and to simply keep him away from the play). Kuechly is also second on the team with six tackles for loss. The Eagles are averaging seven TFL per game, so they like to spend time in opponents' backfields.

Boston College Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

BC's primary quarterback is Dave Schinskie. As a freshman, he's lucky to be able to rely on a solid running game to relieve pressure. As a passer, Schinskie is completing 53.9 percent of his attempts. In an average game, Schinskie will connect on nine of 16 passes for 116 yards. In seven games, Schinskie has nine touchdowns against four interceptions.

Justin Tuggle has struggled as a passer, completing only 13 of his 37 pass attempts with three interceptions to counter four touchdowns. Mike Marscovetra has been slightly more successful in limited action, completing 13 of 20 attempts for two touchdowns and no interceptions.

BC's primary target in the passing game is senior wideout No. 18 Rich Gunnell . Gunnell is averaging three catches and 37 yards per game. If stats are any indicator, No. 10 Colin Lamond is the deep threat to Gunnell's possesion receiver. Lamond is averaging just over two catches per game, but for 53 yards per contest. Lamond also leads the team with four touchdowns. Tight end No. 81 Chris Pantale is averaging close to two catches per game, and he's joined by a slew of players averaging around one catch per game.

It will be interesting to see how the Irish pass defense—surrendering 283 yards per game—will play Boston College and their young quarterbacks. BC runs a base two WR/one RB/one TE offense with either a fullback or a second tight end. They have a variety of players who have caught passes this year, but in essence only two or three primary receivers. With the extra blockers the Eagles keeps in for the run game, it may be most beneficial for the Irish to blanket BC's top two receivers, try their best to get a pass rush with the front four, and accept whatever short checkdowns Schinskie et al. choose to take.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Boston College Pass Defense

Heisman talk aside, Jimmy Clausen has been virtually unstoppable this year. Clausen is a far cry from the nervous mess who threw four picks in last year's BC contest. The Irish QB is now completing close to 65 percent of his passes, with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions in six games. On an average day, Clausen will complete 20 of 32 passes for 301 yards.

Golden Tate has willingly and capably stepped into the role of primary receiver following Michael Floyd 's injury. Tate is averaging close to six catches, 120 yards, and one touchdown per game. Kyle Rudolph , handcuffed in the USC game due to a need for extra blockers, is still averaging four catches and 46 yards per game.

Robby Parris was the surprise hero of the USC game, with nine catches for 92 yards. But an awkward landing ended his afternoon. The good news is that Parris's status has gradually been improving from out to doubtful to questionable over the course of this week. Even if he doesn't see action in this game, don't be surprised if Parris is playing in San Antonio next week.

In Parris's absence, look for Duval Kamara or Shaq Evans to step up. Both are averaging one catch and 12 yards per game, but have the ability to do more. The running backs may also become more involved in the passing game. In six contests, Armando Allen, Robert Hughes, and Jonas Gray have combined for 21 catches.

Like Boston College's run defense, their pass defense has been decent but not great. The Eagles are giving up 212.1 passing yards per game. Despite the team's abililty to get into the backfield against the run, they only have 10 sacks on the year. Lineman No. 96 Kaleb Ramsey has two sacks, and eight other Eagles have single talleys in that category. BC has pulled in seven interceptions, led by free safety No. 45 Wes Davis and linebacker No. 26 Dominick LeGrande with two apiece.

Special Teams

Senior No. 83 Steve Aponavicius is back as BC's kicker, and he's converted all six of his field goal tries thus far. His longest has been for only 37 yards, but something still needs to be said for consistency. For the Irish, Nick Tausch has now made 10 straight after missing the first attempt of his career.

No. 46 Ryan Quigley is BC's punter. He's averaging "just" 40.9 yards per kick, but he does have a long of 58 and six total kicks of 50 yards or more. Quigley has also had plently of practice—his 45 punts work out to an average of more than six per game. Boston College's punt coverage team is giving up a very respectable 9.5 yards per return. Ben Turk is still Notre Dame's punter. After seven tries, his numbers are remarkably similar to Eric Maust 's—an average of 38.3 yards per with a long of 48.

Running back No. 6 Jeff Smith is BC's primary kick returner. He's averaging 21.6 yards per return with a long of 42. David Ruffer has taken over as the Irish kickoff specialist. He averaged 62.2 yards per kick in his four tries last week. Notre Dame's kickoff team is giving up a mediocre 20.1 yards per return, giving opponents an average start on the 27.

Theo Riddick has become the primary kick returner for Notre Dame. He's averaging 23.7 yards per return with a long of 38. Ryan Quigley also kicks off for the Eagles, and with good reason. He's averaging 61.2 yards per kick with three touchbacks in 37 tries. UW's kickoff coverage team is giving up 20.5 yards per return, for an average start on the 26 yard line.

Rich Gunnell returns punts for Boston College. In 10 tries, he's averaging a very good 14.6 yards per return, including a 56-yard touchdown. Maybe the "posession reciever" label was premature. Golden Tate is Notre Dame's punt returner. He's now averaging 7.8 yards per return, with a long of 23.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Jimmy Clausen, Duval Kamara, Harrison Smith, Kapron Lewis-Moore , David Ruffer, Ben Turk

Prediction

Notre Dame 32, Boston College 24

Notre Dame Football Preview: Washington

Kanka — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:51:22 -0400

Washington Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

Washington's leading rusher this year is running back #1 Chris Polk, averaging 21 carries and 79 yards per game. Quarterback #10 Jake Locker is also a threat with his legs, but perhaps not as much as opposing fans might expect. This year, Locker is averaging only eight carries and 18.5 yards per game. He does have two of the team's four rushing touchdowns on the year, though.

Washington's run game, averaging 108.2 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry, has been a pretty straightforward dose of Locker and Chris Polk. Outside of those two, wide receiver #82 Jordan Polk has one carry, and three backup tailbacks have split 13 carries.

Notre Dame's run defense—and its defense as a whole—has been a concern for the Irish faithful this year. ND is giving up 130.5 yards per game on the ground and 4.4 yards per carry. The problem isn't getting into the backfield, as the team is averaging close to seven tackles for loss per game. The problem is one of consistency—those TFL are often offset by significant runs.

The key for the Irish front seven is discipline. Locker may not be running much this year, but he still has the ability to. That means ends Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal have to keep contain on the outside and tackles Ian Williams and Ethan Johnson have to clog holes on the inside. Then, once they do, the linebackers have to finish the job.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Washington Run Defense

How much has Notre Dame's run blocking improved this year? Even Dayne Crist is averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Not only that, but of all Notre Dame Running backs (yes, Golden Tate included), only Jonas Gray has a YPC average that can't match Crist. Armando Allen started running with a purpose in week one, Robert Hughes picked up his slack against Purdue, and strong, purposeful running has become the motto of the Irish backfield.

Allen is expected to return this week, but James Aldridge isn't. Allen is averaging 20 carries and 109 yards per game. Gray and Hughes are both averaging five to six carries and 20-plus yards per game. Sprinkle in some Theo Riddick and Tate out of the Wild Leprechaun, and you have the makings of a team averaging 158 yards per game on the ground.

If Armando Allen has any consolation for missing the Purdue game, it's that he gets to return against a Washington run defense giving up 195.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. Surprisingly, the three starting linebackers still lead Washington in tackles. Notably, #9 Donald Butler leads the team with 38 tackles, 4.5 for a loss.

Washington Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Jake Locker has improved commendably this year, raising his completion percentage to 58.1 with six touchdowns to three interceptions. In an average game, Locker will complete 20 of 34 passes for 250 yards.

Locker's top target is freshman wideout #3 James Johnson, who's averaging five catches and 55 yards per game. Locker has also done a very good job of distributing the ball, as after Johnson come six players averaging at least two catches per game. They include tailbacks Chris Polk and #23 Johri Fogerson; receivers #15 Jermaine Kearse, #11 D'Andre Goodwin, and #9 Devin Aguilar; and tight end #80 Kavario Middleton.

Notre Dame's pass defense has been disappointing this season. Perhaps it's the schemes—blitzes mean no safety help, so the corners have to play loose, opting for the sure tackle instead of the pass breakup. That's a discussion for those who know more about football than I do. Coach Weis mentioned that the team mixed in more Cover 2 against Purdue, but the Boilers still had a very effective day in the air.

The Irish have managed just six sacks on 138 opponents' pass attempts, led by Darius Fleming with two. Notre Dame has also picked off five passes, led by Kyle McCarthy with three.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Washington Pass Defense

Whispers of "Jimmy Heisman" have begun as Jimmy Clausen has gutted his way through the last six quarters of football and still managed to look good doing it. When healthy, Clausen's average game consists of 19 completions on 29 attempts for 280 yards and at least two touchdowns.

Dayne Crist has also been reasonably effective, completing 57.1 percent of his passes for 61 yards.

Golden Tate is the new leading receiver for the Irish, averaging six catches and 89.5 yards per game. Next comes Kyle Rudolph with 4 catches and 53.5 yards per game. After the big guns, Armando Allen, Duval Kamara, Robby Parris, Jonas Gray, and Robert Hughes are all averaging at least one catch per game.

Washington's pass defense is giving up 183.5 yards per game. That number looks respectable at first, until you realize that opponents are attempting less than 25 passes per game thanks to UW's porous run defense. Multiply the Washington D's 7.7 yards given up per pass attempt by Notre Dame's 32 attempts per game, and the number jumps to 250 yards. Multiply Washington's 12.9 yards per completion by ND's 21.5 completions per game, and the number jumps to 277.

To make matters worse for Huskies fans, Washington has only recorded four sacks and two interceptions so far this year. No UW player has more than a single tally in either category.

Special Teams

#17 Erik Folk is in his first season kicking field goals for the Huskies. Folk's lone miss on the year is from 42 yards, but he did make a 46-yard kick against USC. For the Irish, Nick Tausch is now five of six on the year, with a long of 46.

Notre Dame faces another strong-legged punter this week in Washington's #46 Will Mahan. Mahan is averaging 42.7 yards per punt, with five of his 15 boots sailing 50 yards or more. His long is 61. In addition, Washington's punt coverage is giving up a modest 10.2 yards per return. After inconsistent play from Eric Maust, Ben Turk will get a try as the Irish punter this week. Notre Dame has only allowed two punt returns this year, but they've gone for a combined 49 yards.

Washington's primary kick returner is #28 Quinton Richardson, who is averaging 21.8 yards per return with a long of 35. Nick Tausch getting stronger by the week, now averaging 62.7 yards per kickoff. But the Irish kickoff team hasn't lived up to its past performance, giving up an average of 22.1 yards per return. That gives opponents an average start on the 28 yard line.

Theo Riddick has become the primary kick returner for Notre Dame. He's averaging 24.9 yards per return with a long of 38. Erik Folk also kicks off for the Huskies. He's averaging 56.5 yards per kick with one touchback in 19 tries. UW's kickoff coverage team is giving up 19.8 yards per return, for an average start on the 33 yard line.

Johri Fogerson returns punts for Washington. He's only had two chances so far this season, one going for 14 yards and the other for 23. Golden Tate is Notre Dame's punt returner. He's now averaging 9.2 yards per return, with a long of 23.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Jimmy Clausen, Armando Allen, Kerry Neal, Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ben Turk, Golden Tate

Prediction

Notre Dame 34, Washington 21

College Football Preview: Michigan State vs. Notre Dame

Kanka — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:21:50 -0400

Michigan State Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

In the 90's, Michigan State was Wide Receiver U.

This decade, their offense has become known for its steady stable of running backs. Even with the departure of Javon Ringer, MSU is still deep at the position. The starter is small redshirt freshman, No. 24 Caulton Ray, who is averaging 14 carries and 61 yards per game.

Ray also has the team's lone rushing touchdown on the year. He is complemented by several backups, notably No. 22 Larry Caper, who is averaging six to seven carries and 33.5 yards per game.

The Spartans are employing a dual quarterback system this year, and of the two, No. 7 Keith Nichol is the runner. Nichol has had moderate success on the ground, averaging three to four carries and 17.5 yards per game.

Ray is averaging 4.4 yards per carry for the Spartans, and Caper and Nichol are both above five yards per carry. Michigan State uses a fullback, but no Spartan fullback has carried the ball yet.

No. 82 Keshawn Martin has the team's lone carry made by a receiver, but don't rule out more by Martin and the other wideouts against Notre Dame. After two weeks of seeing variations on the veer option, Notre Dame will finally face a traditional pro-style offense.

That may be a blessing or a curse for a run defense that has been gashed to the tune of 171.5 yards per game so far. Leading tacklers for the team continue to be safeties Kyle McCarthy and Harrison Smith, followed by linebackers Brian Smith and Toryan Smith.

Injuries limited Toryan's playing time in the Michigan game, but he should be back to full strength now. He'll need another performance like the one he had against Nevada to keep these MSU rushers at bay. Toryan is leading the team in tackles for a loss with 3.5, followed by Brian Smith, and Darius Fleming with 2.0 apiece.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Michigan State Run Defense

Last week, the Irish faithful saw a running performance perhaps unprecedented in the Weis era. It wasn't just Armando Allen's final numbers on the day, it was the way he ran—fighting and pushing for every yard he could get and refusing to go down until gang-tackled.

Allen is the definite starter on this team, averaging 18 carries and 105.5 yards per game. Jonas Gray has established himself as the top backup, but it remains to be seen how a fumble in the Michigan game will affect the sophomore's psyche.

Gray is averaging six carries and 25 yards per game. Allen is averaging 5.9 yards per carry to Gray's 4.2. James Aldridge is doubtful for Saturday's game, which likely means more of Robert Hughes and Bobby Burger at fullback.

Hughes is averaging 3-4 carries and 10 yards per game, while Burger is used exclusively as a blocker—where he has excelled. MSU's run defense has been stout this year, holding opponents to 64.0 yards per game.

One may chalk that up to the quality of opponents the Spartans have faced thus far, but Michigan State has two things working in their favor.

One, they held all-everything quarterback Dan LeFevour to just 0.8 yards per carry last week. And two, MSU's early success against the run has always been a sign of things to come, especially against the Irish.

The star of Michigan State's defense is middle linebacker No. 53 Greg Jones. Jones is the only MSU player with multiple tackles for a loss (he has 4.0 on the year), and he has almost twice as many overall tackles as any other member of the team.

Michigan State has undersized defensive ends, mostly weighing in under 250 pounds. So if the Irish call for more outside runs this week, it not only keeps the ball carrier away from Greg Jones (at least momentarily), it also lets Paul Duncan and Sam Young impose their decided weight advantage on those MSU ends.

Michigan State Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Michigan State balances its effective running game with an efficient passing game. "Running quarterback" Keith Nichol has only completed 46.2 percent of his passes, but he does have three touchdowns.

Starter No. 8 Kirk Cousins meanwhile, has completed a Clausen-esque 65.7 percent of his passes with four touchdowns. On the average day, Cousins will complete 12 of 18 passes for 173.5 yards, while Nichol will complete 6 of 13 for 93 yards.

Neither quarterback has thrown an interception on the season.

If Michigan State is to win back the title of Wide Receiver U, it will be on the shoulders of senior wideout No. 25 Blair White. White is averaging eight catches, two touchdowns, and 133.5 yards per game.

Not to be forgotten is White's opposite number, No. 3 BJ Cunningham. Cunningham has two touchdown receptions of his own, and is averaging at least three catches and 58.5 yards per game.

A trio of tight ends—No. 83 Charlie Gantt, No. 88 Brian Linthicum, and No. 80 Dion Sims—each have three catches and one touchdown on the year, so Notre Dame will have to look out for these tall threats in the red zone.

Michigan State has seven passing touchdowns to only one on the ground, so it's time for Notre Dame's hyped secondary to put up or shut up.

The Irish are holding opponents to 197 passing yards per game, a respectable number. But it's the way that Notre Dame has done it that has caused some gnashing of teeth, as defensive backs seem to play soft in coverage to go for the sure tackle instead of trying to defend the pass itself.

Four Irish have registered sacks, including Brian and Toryan Smith, Darius Fleming, and John Ryan. Ryan has played well in 2009, hoping to erase his forgettable 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Michigan State Pass Defense

Jimmy Clausen is still an improved quarterback, even if he isn't going to hit on 90 percent of his passes every game. On an average day, the junior will connect on 20 of 30 passes for 325.5 yards and 3-4 touchdowns. Most importantly, Clausen has yet to throw a pass to the opposite jerseys this year.

Notre Dame's top receivers are Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, each of whom is averaging six catches per game. Tate is averaging 87 yards per game and has two touchdowns on the year. Floyd is averaging 160 yards per game and has four touchdowns on the year.

The sophomore Floyd should be good to go this weekend after a gash from the Big House warning track required 15 stitches.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph is averaging 3-4 catches and 33.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Armando Allen hasn't been as much of a factor in the passing game this year as he has in the past. But that's probably due to the increase in passes to Tate and Floyd more than anything else.

Allen is averaging 2-3 catches and 24.5 yards per game. Michigan State's pass defense is giving up 225 yards per game. But that number is a bit misleading, as the Spartans gave up only 98 passing yards to Montana State, but 352 to Central Michigan.

A number of Spartans have recorded a sack this year, including Greg Jones, defensive tackle No. 99 Jerel Worthy, and ends No. 58 Trevor Anderson, No. 89 Colin Neely, and No. 54 David Rolf. MSU's lone interception was scored by cornerback No. 9 Jeremy Ware.

Special Teams

No. 14 Brett Swenson is Michigan State's place-kicker for the fourth straight year, and for good reason. Swenson is perfect on the season, converting three field goals in the 30-39 yard range, plus one from 45 yards.

Freshman Nick Tausch missed from 28 yards in his first collegiate attempt last week, but went on to convert 34 and 42-yarders. MSU can be proud of its kickers, as Lou Groza candidate Brett Swenson is joined by Ray Guy candidate No. 18 Aaron Bates at punter.

Bates is certainly making his case for the award, as he's averaging 48.9 yards per punt on the season. Four of Bates's seven punts have gone for 50 or more yards, including his long of 57.

Michigan State is giving up 8.8 yards per punt return, a very respectable number. Notre Dame's Eric Maust is averaging 40.3 yards per punt with a long of 46, but has been inconsistent at times this year. Still, opponents have yet to be able to make a return on a Maust punt.

Michigan State's primary kick returner is No. 41 Glenn Winston, another member of their stable of running backs. Winston is averaging 23 yards per return with a long of 38. Nick Tausch is averaging 60.5 yards per kickoff, but the Irish kickoff team hasn't lived up to its past performance, giving up an average of 24.2 yards per return.

That gives opponents an average start on the 34 yard line. Theo Riddick and Barry Gallup have shared kick return duties for the Irish. Riddick has two returns, each for 23 yards. Gallup has one return for 52 yards and another for 25.

Kickoff duties for Michigan State have been split between Brett Swenson and No. 4 Dan Conroy. Both are averaging about 64 yards per kick, and Conroy has the lone touchback between them.

MSU is giving up 22.4 yards per kick return, leaving opponents with an average starting field position around the 28 yard line.

Keshawn Martin returns punts for the Spartans. He's averaging 12.2 yards per return with a long of 26. Golden Tate is Notre Dame's punt returner. He's only had one chance so far this year though, and it went for -2 yards.

Notre Dame Players to Watch:

Armando Allen, Michael Floyd, Toryan Smith, Brian Smith, Eric Maust, Barry Gallup

Prediction:

Notre Dame: 34, Michigan State: 23

Notre Dame Football 2009 Issue 2: Michigan

Kanka — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 07:34:00 -0400

Michigan Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

In the opener against Western Michigan, Wolverines quarterbacks kept the ball on 23 run attempts and handed off on 27. That's a pretty even mix, especially considering that 22 of those 23 keepers were made by freshmen quarterbacks No. 5 Tate Forcier and No. 16 Denard Robinson. Forcier, the starter, ran 11 times for 37 yards and Robinson 11 for 74 yards and a touchdown.

Only one carry came from a receiver, as No. 19 Kelvin Grady went for 11 yards. This is a contrast from the Florida and Missouri spreads, which liberally hand off to their slot receivers. However, it's possible that Michigan was simply saving those plays for bigger games—like this week's.

Running back No. 23 Carlos Brown had 10 carries for 54 yards, while fellow backs No. 20 Michael Shaw and No. 2 Vincent Smith had 7 for 34 and 6 for 23 respectively. So the Wolverines like to mix in all their capable backs.

Somewhat surprisingly, Michigan mainstay No. 24 Kevin Grady has essentially fallen to fourth string, seeing only two carries for seven yards. On one hand, it's not surprising to see the 230-lb. Grady passed over in favor of smaller, quicker backs in the spread offense. But on the other hand, Rich Rodriguez did have success with bruising fullbacks like Owen Schmitt at West Virginia.

Notre Dame's went the bend-don't-break route against Nevada's run game in Week One, giving up 153 rushing yards and letting safeties Kyle McCarthy and Harrison Smith lead the team in tackles. Middle linebacker Toryan Smith was right behind them, and he'll have another chance to play the role of run-stuffer against the Wolverines.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Michigan Run Defense

Armando Allen and Jonas Gray both had efficient games against Nevada, averaging 4.8 and 5.6 yards respectively. Allen ran 15 times for 72 yards, while Gray got his fair share of touches with 9 carries for 50 yards.

It will be interesting to see how Notre Dame handles the fullback situation with James Aldridge out. Aldridge ran rather effectively before leaving the Nevada game with a shoulder injury. Will Notre Dame turn the fullback role over to the untested Steve Paskorz? Will they give Robert Hughes a crash course at the position? Or will they scrap the fullback entirely in favor of one-back sets and formations using H-back Bobby Burger?

The Wolverines were in Western Michigan's backfield all day, holding the Broncos to just 38 rushing yards. Michigan returns four starters to its front seven, which runs a hybrid 3-4 defense with a linebacker that can also be used as a 4-3 defensive end.

The Michigan D is led by end No. 55 Brandon Graham and middle linebacker No. 45 Obi Ezeh. Graham was held in check by the Broncos, but Ezeh had a forced fumble and six tackles, one and a half for a loss. Outside linebacker No. 3 Stevie Brown and "Quick" linebacker No. 58 Brandon Herron combined for nine tackles in the game.

Michigan Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

For the most part, the spread is a fairly balanced offense. So, despite the fact that Tate Forcier was making his college debut, he still had 20 pass attempts. Forcier completed 13 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns, a pretty efficient day. Denard Robinson completed two of the four passes he attempted, for 18 yards. For the most part, it looks at this point like Forcier is the better overall quarterback, and track champion Robinson is just out for his running ability. But Robinson will try the occasional short pass to keep defenses in check.

Wideout No. 21 Junior Hemingway was Forcier's top target in week 1, hauling in five catches, two of them touchdowns, for 103 yards. Tight end No. 86 Kevin Koger, veteran receiver No. 13 Greg Mathews, and Kelvin Grady also had multiple catches. If one game is any indication, Hemingway will be the deep threat, with Koger, Matthews, and Grady playing safety valves for their young quarterback.

Notre Dame used a talented secondary and efficient blitzing to hold Nevada to an 18 percent success rate on third down and 153 passing yards overall. The Irish corners continue to play soft in man coverage, seemingly preferring a catch and a sure tackle to a big gain on an attempted (and failed) pass breakup. Like last week, Notre Dame's safeties and blitzers can't get too greedy and leave the corners out on islands too often.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Michigan Pass Defense

Jimmy Clausen has been near perfect in his last two starts against the WAC, and now he'll get to try his luck against the Big 10. In the season opener, Clausen was an efficient 15 for 18 for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Clausen will work to four primary targets this year, wideouts Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, tight end Kyle Rudolph, and back Armando Allen. Going against a tougher defense this week, Clausen's goal should be avoiding bad habits from last year, notably not forcing the ball to Kyle Rudolph in coverage.

Michigan's secondary is a cause for concern. Despite two interceptions, the Wolverines did allow Western Michigan to complete almost 60 percent of its passes for 263 yards. Corner No. 6 Donovan Warren had one of those interceptions, and also led Michigan with 6.5 tackles in the opener.

But don't assume that Michigan's thin secondary means that Notre Dame will come out in four- and five-wide sets. Against Nevada, the Irish mostly utilized traditional two- and three-wide sets to help protect Jimmy Clausen, and they still had success through the air.

Special Teams

After three years on the practice squad, No. 92 Jason Olesnavage has earned a spot as Michigan's starting placekicker. In the opener, Olesnavage hit from 44 yards in his only field goal attempt. Freshman Nick Tausch of Notre Dame did not attempt a field goal last week, but he did chip in all five extra point attempts.

To recap, Michigan's quarterback is 6'1", 188; its placekicker is 6'5", 213; and punter No. 41 Zoltan Mesko is 6'5", 231. Mesko punted five times in the Western Michigan game, a number that tarnishes Michigan's offensive numbers a bit. Of course, maybe the Wolverines just wanted to show off his powerful leg, one that averaged 47.2 yards per punt in the game with a long of 66. In the "it's only one game" category, Michigan gave up only 3 yards per punt return. Notre Dame's Eric Maust punted three times last week with a long of 43 yards and an average of 40.7. Nevada was not able to make a return.

Michigan's kick returners are backup receivers No. 22 Darryl Stonum and No. 9 Martavious Odoms. Each had one return for 20 yards last week. Nick Tausch averaged 58.5 yards per kick last week, even including a kick where he lost his footing. The Irish gave up 17.6 yards per return, giving opponents an average start around the 30.

Notre Dame's Theo Riddick had the team's lone kick return last week, for 23 yards. It remains to be seen who will replace James Aldridge next to Riddick this week.. Michigan returns kickoff specialist No. 43 Bryan Wright. Wright averaged 66.5 yards per kick with one touchback in Week One. Michigan gave up 22.2 yards per kick return. That's an average start on the 26 yard line.

Greg Mathews returns punts for the Wolverines. He's had two returns in 2009, one for zero yards and one for 16. Returning punts for the Irish will be either Golden Tate or Armando Allen. In Tate's lone chance last week, he had a -2 yard return.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Jimmy Clausen, Armando Allen, Toryan Smith, Brian Smith, Nick Tausch, Theo Riddick

Prediction

Notre Dame 21, Michigan 16

Notre Dame-Nevada: Irish Defense Looks to Stuff Tricky Wolf Pack Offense

Kanka — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 18:17:00 -0400

Nevada Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

Much has been made of quarterback #10 Colin Kaepernick's running ability and the 1298 rushing yards he accumulated in 2008. But while Kaepernick led the team in rushing touchdowns, he was only second on the team in yards to running back #34 Vai Taua.

Kaepernick and Taua run a two-man option rushing attack out of Nevada's pistol formation. Last year, Taua averaged 18 carries and 117 yards per game, while Kaepernick added 11 carries and 98 yards per game (sacks excluded).

The pistol is a one-back formation, and in fact Nevada does not list any fullbacks on its roster. Also, don't confuse the pistol with the spread attacks run at places like Florida or Missouri.

While the Wolf Pack will ocassionally hand the ball off to one of its three wideouts, receiver runs are not a primary part of its game. Last year, no Nevada wide receiver had more than seven rushes on the season.

Notre Dame's front seven returns only three starters this season. However, maybe that's a good thing, as the Irish run defense gave up 134 yards per game in 2008.

The line and linebackers are an exciting group of players, each with an interesting story to tell.

Brian Smith and Kerry Neal are now the steady leaders of the group. Ethan Johnson and Darius Fleming return after breakout freshman campaigns. Ian Williams and Toryan Smith are out for redemption. Kapron Lewis-Moore, Steve Filer, and Manti Te'o are itching to make an impact in their college debuts.

Defending the option calls for discipline on the outside and a good push on the inside. That will take patience from Lewis-Moore and converted defensive end Fleming. It will also be an excellent chance for Johnson to prove the move from end to defensive tackle was wise, and for Williams and Toryan Smith that they belong with the first team.

The option will also require run support from the safeties, and neither Kyle McCarthy nor Harrison Smith are afraid to mix it up in the box. How else would McCarthy lead the team in tackles in 2008 and Smith volunteer to play outside linebacker?

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Nevada Run Defense

Armando Allen is the number one back outright this year, and now it's his job to prove he earned that right. Allen averaged 10 carries per game and 4.4 yards per carry in 2008—numbers that Irish fans both hope will improve in 2009.

Backing up Allen will be sophomore Jonas Gray, who averaged 4.3 yards per carry in limited playing time last year, but who also had fumble trouble in his introduction to college ball. Behind Allen and Gray is Robert Hughes, who has fallen out of his coach's good graces for playing like a small back despite weighing in at 234 lbs.

James Aldridge has been moved to fullback, and it will be interesting to see how he is used this season. The fullback has not seen many touches in Notre Dame's offense these past few years, but that may simply be due to the fact that the Irish haven't had an offensive threat at that position.

Also, if Gray and Hughes falter early this year, don't be surprised to see Aldridge back in at tailback when Allen comes out of the game.

Now is the time for the Irish to improve their mediocre run game. Depth and experience are no longer issues at running back or along the offensive line, so if the talent is there, it's time for it to shine.

Nevada's front seven features three seniors and two juniors, and its defense as a whole held opponents to 3.1 yards per carry and 88 yards per game in 2008. Those are fairly impressive numbers, no matter who you're facing.

The Wolf Pack returns three players who had double-digit tackles for a loss in 2008. Most notable is sophomore SAM linebacker #52 James-Michael Johnson, who registered 12.5 TFL in his freshman campaign. Johnson will look to lead Nevada's linebacking corps, as he is the lone returning starter in that unit.

Nevada Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

For all that is made of Kaepernick's running ability, his passing also deserves some recognition. A 54.3 percent completion rate and 219 yards per game by themselves won't win a Heisman Trophy, but a 22 to seven touchdown-to-interception ratio is certainly impressive. On average in 2008, Kaepernick completed 16 of 29 passes per game.

Nevada primarily utilizes three wideouts, but of its top three receivers in 2008, only one returns in 2009.

Number 14 Chris Wellington averaged three catches and 48.6 yards per game while also grabbing six touchdowns on the year. Number 82 Tray Session only caught one pass in 2008, while #18 Brandon Wimberly will make his collegiate debut after redshirting last year.

Running back Taua averaged two catches and 18.7 yards per game in 2008, while tight end #85 Virgil Green—a returning starter—averaged one catch and 12.6 yards. In otherwords, Nevada will go to checkdown options on ocassion, but the three wide receivers are Kaepernick's main targets.

This season, Notre Dame will march out its most talented secondary in years.

Robert Blanton gets the nod at one starting cornerback position, while the other will be a gametime decision between Raeshon McNeil and Darrin Walls. The indecision there comes from limited practice time for Walls due to a mild hamstring injury, but either player can fill the role admirably, as can any of their backups.

As mentioned above, both safeties are more than willing to help in run support, but they can't get greedy, or else Nevada will burn them over the top.

It remains to be seen how effective Notre Dame's pass rush will be or how much pressure they'll try to get on Kaepernick. With an inexperienced front, the Irish may instead try to contain the run and let the defensive backs worry about the passing game.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Nevada Pass Defense

When Jimmy Clausen let go of the ball in 2008, it didn't hit the ground much. Clausen completed 60.9 percent of his passes last year (64.8 percent if you count his 17 interceptions).

So which quarterback will the Irish get this year? The mid-November Clausen who forced passes in triple coverage or the December version, who threw a "perfect game" in the Hawaii Bowl? The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.

Clausen's 2008 receivers can be divided into three tiers: those who caught four or more passes per game (Golden Tate, Allen, Michael Floyd), those who caught three per game (David Grimes), and those who caught one to two passes per game (Kyle Rudolph, Duval Kamara, Hughes, Robby Parris).

Two questions arise from this list. One: Who will move up to Grimes' tier? Rudolph, Kamara, and Parris are obvious choices, but don't count out any of the freshman, either.

Two: Who besides Allen will catch passes out of the backfield? Aldridge has only 11 career receptions, and Jonas Gray was not thrown to last year. Will one of them see more screens come their way in 2009 or will Hughes get to see the field just for this purpose?

The stars of Nevada's defense are its ends. Number 99 Kevin Basped had 18.5 TFL, 10 sacks, and three forced fumbles last year, while #55 Dontay Moch had 17.5, 11.5, and four. Both are back to lead a veteran defensive line this year.

It's a good thing Nevada has such great pass rushers, because when the opposing quarterback did get the ball off, the results weren't pretty. The Wolf Pack gave up 311 passing yards per game in 2008.

Its top two tacklers were both defensive backs, and only one of those two—free safety #49 Jonathon Amaya—returns this year. Amaya also led the Wolf Pack with four interceptions in 2008, followed by 2009's strong safety #25 Mo Harvey with three.

To prey on Nevada's defensive weaknesses, the Irish should employ a steady diet of screens (and draws) and deep passes. Fortunately, these are things the Irish excelled at in 2008. Notre Dame can also choose to spread Nevada's secondary thin with its bevy of talented receivers or aid Clausen and the line by keeping tight ends in to protect against the pass rush.

Special Teams

Nevada's placekicker is junior college transfer #46 Ricky Drake. Notre Dame's placekicker is freshman Nick Tausch, who won the job impressively in fall practice. Stats are not available for either player.

Number 48 Brad Langley returns as Nevada's punter. In 2008, he averaged 44.0 yards per punt with a long of 77. How do mid-majors continue to land strong legs like this? Or is it just the thin mountain air and turf fields? Last season, the Wolf Pack punt coverage team gave up 9.2 yards per return, a very respectable number.

Notre Dame returns punter Eric Maust as a scholarship player after averaging 41.1 yards per punt in 2008 with a long of 54. Last year, the Irish punt coverage team was outstanding, holding opponents to just six yards per punt return.

Nevada's kick returners are slated to be a combination of #24 Brandon Fragger, #5 Mike Ball, and Brandon Wimberley. Of the trio, only Fragger returned kicks in 2008, averaging 18.2 yards with a long of 26.

Nick Tausch will also kick off for the Irish. He has been praised not for his ability to boot the ball out of the endzone, but for his hang time, which allows Notre Dame's fantastic kick coverage team a chance to get down the field. Last year, that kick coverage team gave up just 16.5 yards per return.

Notre Dame's choices for kick returner may be a bit of a surprise. Aldridge and freshman halfback Theo Riddick start the year at that position. Last year, Aldridge returned one kick for 15 yards.

Behind Aldridge and Riddick on the depth chart are freshman Shaquelle Evans and senior Barry Gallup.

Nevada's kickoff specialist will be either Ricky Drake or sophomore #39 Nick Rhodes. Like Drake, Rhodes has yet to see field action for the Wolf Pack. In 2008, Nevada's kickoff coverage was pedestrian, giving up 26.1 yards per return.

The Wolf Pack have three players vying for punt return duty: #5 Thaddeus Brown, Taua, and #24 Khalid Wooten. None of the three returned punts in 2008.

Returning punts for the Irish will be either Tate or Allen. Tate averaged 8.3 yards per return in 2008, with a long of 42. Allen had an average of 9.4 with a long of just 22, but he did add a 96-yard kickoff return in the Hawaii Bowl.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Clausen, Allen, Toryan Smith, Lewis-Moore, Tausch, and Riddick.

Prediction

Notre Dame 38, Nevada 24.

DVD Review: 'Echoes Awakened'

Kanka — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 22:37:00 -0400

Echoes Awakened is the companion DVD to Jim Dent's new title Resurrection, about Ara Parsegian's first season at Notre Dame. The DVD has a great concept: Dent had already interviewed many key figures for his book, so why not put them in front of a camera and let them tell the story of 1964 themselves?

The DVD starts with an introduction by Lou Holtz. If you could only say two truths about Coach Holtz, they're these: he loves Our Lady's University and he can sell anything to anyone. Holtz's excitement is tangible as he explains why the 1964 season was one of the greatest moments in Notre Dame football history.

Player, coach, and media interviews are intertwined with narration by Brent Musberger. Say what you will about Musberger, but his voice has become one of the iconic sounds of college football, and that voice helps make this DVD.

Together, the likes of Nick Rassas, Tony Carey, Ara Parseghian, and others guide the viewer through the 1964 season, from the reorganization process that began with Parseghian's hiring to the heartbreaking loss to USC at the end of the year.

For those who have read Resurrection, it was nice to put current faces and voices to the names featured in the book, like Rassas, Carey, John Huarte, and Ken Maglicic. Huarte's forehead may be a little longer than it was 45 years ago, but the quarterback is still as handsome as his college days, with a golden voice to match. It's a wonder why he isn't a broadcaster these days.

Echoes also gives viewers a chance to hear from a few people who were perhaps overlooked in Resurrection, like center Norm Nicola and offensive coordinator Tom Pagna.

The DVD ends, like the 1964 season, on a bit of a sour note. Several players are still bitter over the shoddy refereeing in the USC game that they feel cost the Irish a National Championship. It's hard not to get caught up in their emotions, even all of these years later.

Echoes Awakened is the perfect companion DVD to Resurrection, and a great look at the 1964 for any fan of the Era of Ara.

Echoes Awakened is due out on DVD September 1 and is available in the Notre Dame Bookstore. Thank you to Thomas Dunne Books and St. Martin's Press for sending a review copy.

Book Review: 'Resurrection' by Jim Dent

Kanka — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 22:36:00 -0400

Inept coaching. An administration de-emphasizing football. Highly-touted recruits who didn't produce on the field. The team's best talent rotting on the bench. Dwindling fan support.

What has been true of the past decade of Irish football was true in the 1950s and early 60s, as Notre Dame followed Frank Leahy's tenure with a series of under qualified coaches and dismal records.

That is, until 1964, when the administration broke its tradition of hiring alumni of Irish descent and signed an Armenian Presbyterian to be there new head coach. If he could succeed and run a clean program at Northwestern, there's no reason why Ara Parseghian couldn't do it at Notre Dame.

Resurrection: The Miracle Season That Saved Notre Dame follows Parseghian and some of that rotting talent as they put together one of the most memorable years in Notre Dame's long history.

Resurrection follows the miracle theme by highlighting, among others, Tony Carey, All-American Nick Rassas, NFL legend Jack Snow, and Heisman Trophy winner John Huarte, all of whom rarely saw the field before Parseghian took over. Jim Dent, author of The Junction Boys, does a fantastic job of intertwining the players' and coaches' stories with the events of the day, like the mourning of JFK and the advent of the British Invasion.

If you're a fan of the Era of Ara like we are, there's no reason not to love this book (especially thanks to a cameo appearance by Coach Yonto that's sure to elicit a smile from those who knew him). In building a chronological library of Notre Dame football history, Resurrection picks up where Shake Down the Thunder and Leahy's Lads left off.

Resurrection is due out September 1 from St. Martin's Press and Thomas Dunne Books. Thanks to both for the advance copy.

Book Review: 'Rough & Tumble' by Mark Bavaro

Kanka — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 22:35:00 -0400

A true football novel can only be written by someone who played the game. Mark Bavaro makes that clear from the first chapter of his debut novel, Rough & Tumble. It's one thing to say a tight end ran a five-yard hitch to make a catch, it's quite another to spend two pages describing every little juke, maneuver, and evasion technique it took to slip past the defense to get in place to make the catch.

But Rough & Tumble isn't a dry, drawn-out story about play on the field. It's a fast, enthralling look at the full life of a football player—from the morning routine on the trainer's table, to the boredom of team meetings, to the cheap shots suffered on even the most basic of plays.

Bavaro's alter-ego Dom Fucillo must deal with a cast of characters that surely are already familiar to Giants fans—a hard-nosed head coach, a star linebacker who parties too hard, and an injured quarterback whose main concern is a future in broadcasting.

But those aren't Fucillo's only demons, as he also must deal with an estranged girlfriend, a faith that has become more superstition than religion, and injuries that could end his career at any moment.

If Bavaro deserves any criticism for Rough & Tumble, it's from his fine literary skills outshining the supposed lack of intelligence of his first-person narrator, Fucillo. Still, all of that is quickly lost in an entertaining and exciting story.

The paperback version of Rough & Tumble is available September 1 from St. Martin's Press and Thomas Dunne Books. Thank you to St. Martin's and Thomas Dunne for an advance copy.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Kicker and Punter

Kanka — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 18:20:00 -0400

Previously Covered
Quarterback
Halfback and Fullback
Wide Receiver
Tight End
Offensive Line
Defensive Line
Linebacker
Safety
Cornerback

Spotlight: Nick Tausch

	G	FG	PAT	Points
2008 (HS)	-	9-15	-	-

Also Returning: Ryan Burkhart, Eric Maust, Brandon Walker
Lost: Joe Bizjak (graduation)
Gained: David Ruffer (walk-on), Ben Turk (freshman)

Stepping onto campus this fall, Nick Tausch had a chance to be Notre Dame's kickoff specialist and possibly even their placekicker. Well, he's already won both jobs.

No, you won't see Tausch booming kickoffs out of the back of the end zone...yet, at least. Tausch won kickoff responsibilities based on hangtime.

Charlie Weis is a big fan of hangtime on kickoffs, and it's that philosophy that helped Notre Dame's kick coverage team hold opponents to the lowest return average in the nation last year (of course, players like Mike Anello, David Bruton, and Sergio Brown helped those numbers too).

Some Irish fans may think Tausch won the placekicking job by default, since his only competition was Brandon Walker. But bear in mind that after a rough start, Walker was very dependable down the stretch, at a time when the rest of the team was faltering.

Plus, Walker was 39 for 39 in PAT attempts last year, an impressive feat for a college kicker. So Tausch still had to show something to beat out the incumbent for his spot.

Eric Maust returns as Notre Dame's punter, with a respectable career average of 41 yards per punt. But Maust wasn't without consistency problems in 2008, so look for Ben Turk to push him for playing time.

Maust can forgo a fifth year of eligibility in 2010 to focus on a professional baseball career, so Coach Weis may want to get Turk some playing time this year in case the freshman is needed for full-time duty next season.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Cornerback

Kanka — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:50:00 -0400

Previously Covered
Quarterback
Halfback and Fullback
Wide Receiver
Tight End
Offensive Line
Defensive Line
Linebacker
Safety

Spotlight: Darrin Walls

	G	Tackles	INT	PBU
2007	12	32	1	9

Also Returning: Mike Anello, Robert Blanton, Gary Gray, Raeshon McNeil
Lost: Terrail Lambert, John Leonis (graduation)
Gained: Michael Garcia, Nick Lezynski, Andrew Plaska, Ryan Sheehan, Joshua Stull (walk-ons), Jamoris Slaughter (DNP as freshman), Kael Anderson, EJ Banks (freshmen)

Darrin Walls wasn't enrolled at Notre Dame in 2008. He's spent most of fall practice nursing injuries. Yet he still enters the season as a starting cornerback. That's just how good this kid is.

In recent years, if someone said that a player could walk right into Notre Dame's lineup at starting cornerback after missing all that time, an Irish fan would have just rolled their eyes and complained about the mediocrity at the position going back to Bob Davie's time (especially the "Heisman Makers" who were continually burned by Palmer, Leinart, et al).

But that's not the case this year. Notre Dame has a slew of talented corners this year, and for Walls to beat them out is more of a testament to his own talent than a knock on anyone else's.

Robert Blanton will start opposite Walls. Blanton earned that right after inspired, emotional play in the second half of 2008. Now, the playmaker—who recorded two interceptions and three tackles for loss as a freshman—will have to prove he has the discipline to be an every-down cover guy.

Obviously, the Notre Dame coaching staff has faith in him, otherwise they wouldn't be starting him in front of Raeshon McNeil or Gary Gray.

McNeil, seemingly forever in buddy Darrin Walls's shadow, quietly stepped up when Walls couldn't go last year, to the tune of 41 tackles and two interceptions of his own. Now, just as quietly, he will return to his role as a nickel or dime back.

Waiting in the wings are two more talented young players, Gary Gray and Jamoris Slaughter. Slaughter is listed as Walls's primary backup at right corner, while Gray is third left cornerback behind Blanton and McNeil.

Rounding out the depth chart are freshman EJ Banks and special teams ace Mike Anello. But with all the talent this unit provides, Anello probably won't see any defensive snaps until senior day.

Ironically, in a year when Notre Dame's secondary is the best in years, the Irish opponents have few—if any—household names at quarterback and wide receiver. The best quarterbacks Notre Dame will face—Nevada's Colin Kaepernick and Washington's Jake Locker—are known more for their running ability than their passing (although Kaepernick is somewhat of an underrated passer).

Michigan, Michigan State, and USC will trot out highly recruited wideouts, as usual, but each school will also be breaking in a new quarterback this season.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Safety

Kanka — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:12:00 -0400

Previously Covered

Quarterback
Halfback and Fullback
Wide Receiver
Tight End
Offensive Line
Defensive Line
Linebacker

Spotlight: Sergio Brown

	G	Tackles	INT	FF
2008	13	28	0	0

Also Returning: Chris Bathon, Leonard Gordon, Ray Herring, Kyle McCarthy

Lost: David Bruton, Jashaad Gaines (graduation)

Gained: Harrison Smith (position change—linebacker), Thomas Smith (walk-on), Dan McCarthy (DNP as freshman), Zeke Motta (freshman)

Last season Sergio Brown impressed everyone with his play—enough to work his way into the starting lineup. Brown especially left a lasting impression at the end of 2008, and it will be interesting to see how he will be used in 2009.

Will he remain at nickelback despite Notre Dame's abundance of talent at that position? Or will Harrison Smith slide down to linebacker during passing downs, despite the depth at that position as well? That remains to be seen, and all Brown can do is continue to practice and play well.

Speaking of Harrison Smith, the return to safety—his natural position—has been called "seamless" by head coach Charlie Weis. Between the inspired play of Brown and Smith, and 2008 team-leading tackler Kyle McCarthy, the safety position is at the heart of what is already considered the best Irish secondary since the Holtz years.

Behind Smith, Brown, and McCarthy are three talented players in their own right. Ray Herring (of recruiting blog fame) is back for his last hurrah, but he'll have to fight off both Dan McCarthy and Zeke Motta for playing time.

On a less serious note, putting names on the jerseys wouldn't be much help to the casual fan this year. The Irish project to have four Smiths starting on defense this year (Harrison at safety, and Scott, Toryan, and Brian at linebacker), with a fifth—walk-on safety Thomas—waiting on the sidelines.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Linebacker

Kanka — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 17:32:00 -0400

Previously Covered
Quarterback
Halfback and Fullback
Wide Receiver
Tight End
Offensive Line
Defensive Line

Spotlight: Toryan Smith

	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks
2008	10	18	0	0

Also Returning: Tom Burke, Steve Filer, Darius Fleming, Brian Smith, Scott Smith
Lost: Maurice Crum, Jr., Aaron Nagel, Steve Quinn, Kevin Smith, Kevin Washington (graduation), Kerry Neal, Martin Quintana, Kallen Wade (position change - defensive end), Harrison Smith (position change - safety)
Gained: Sean Oxley (walk-on), Anthony McDonald, David Posluszny (DNP as freshmen), Carlo Calabrese, Dan Fox, Manti Te'o (freshmen)

It seems like every year Toryan Smith enters fall practice as the starting middle linebacker, then loses his job before the leaves turn.

For Toryan, things must look especially bad this year, as the Irish come in with more talented linebackers than at any time during the senior's career.

If Toryan Smith wants to play as much as possible, he'll have to prove his worth as a run stopper. But even playing him on obvious rushing downs is no longer a given, as Brian Smith and Manti Te'o, the obvious choices to replace Toryan in the middle, already rival him in physical size.

Scott Smith enters with a similar story.

The senior has finally worked his way into the starting lineup, but he too will have to prove his worth as a run stopper to stay on the field.

There is already talk that Darius Fleming, who similarly does not have much of a size disadvantage compared to Scott Smith, is working his way into the starting SAM spot.

And hot on Fleming's heels is Steve Filer, to the point where both may see the field as outside linebackers at the same time.

Then there's the possibility of Fleming playing defensive end on passing downs, like he did as a freshman last year.

This is a talented and versatile linebacking group, a problem any defensive coordinator would love to have, especially a blitz-happy one like John Tenuta.

To recap, there's Toryan Smith at the MIKE; Brian Smith and Manti Te'o at the MIKE or WILL; Scott Smith at the SAM; Darius Fleming at the SAM, WILL, or defensive end; and Steve Filer at the SAM or WILL.

That's not bad for a group that "lost" nine players from the start of 2008, including two starters. Plus it's not couting newcomers David Posluszny and Carlo Calabrese, who have impressed so far in fall practice.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Defensive Line

Kanka — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 17:47:00 -0400

Previously Covered
Quarterback
Halfback and Fullback
Wide Receiver
Tight End
Offensive Line

Spotlight: Kerry Neal

	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks
2008	13	25	4.0	2.0

Also Returning: Ethan Johnson, Paddy Mullen, Andrew Nuss, Emeka Nwankwo, Martin Quintana, Morrice Richardson, John Ryan, Ian Williams
Lost: Dorian Inzunza, Pat Kuntz
Gained: Kallen Wade (position change - linebacker), Christopher Skubis (walk-on), Sean Cwynar, Kapron Lewis-Moore, Brandon Newman, Hafis Williams (DNP as freshmen), Tyler Stockton (freshman)

As Notre Dame transitions back into a 4-3 defense, each starter has a claim to the spotlight. Kapron Lewis-Moore did not play as a freshman, but a drastic bulking up (220-pounds as a freshman to 270 as a sophomore) and impressive displays in practice have made him a starting defensive end.

Ian Williams is looking to rebound from a disappointing sophomore season after a breakout freshman performance. Ethan Johnson moves from a 3-4 defensive end as a freshman to a 4-3 tackle as a sophomore.

And then there's Kerry Neal. Neal burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2007, playing opposite Brian Smith at outside linebacker. Neal's 2008 numbers were nearly identical to those he put up the previous season, which is disappointing considering the increased playing time.

Now, he will attempt to play defensive end, despite still playing at a linebacker's size (6'2", 250-pounds). Presumably, Ethan Johnson will slide over to defensive end on obvious rushing downs, but what does that mean for Neal? In other years, he may have slid back to outside linebacker. But as the Irish linebacking corps improves, Neal may find himself on the sidelines when the situation calls for a big stop on the ground.

While many eyes will be on Jimmy Clausen, or the offensive line, or the running game to make or break the season, it may be the defensive line that dictates how the season will play out. The Irish face a slew of productive and diverse rushing attacks this season. To prevail, Notre Dame will need to rely on defensive line starters that are talented but young, and backups that have failed to live up to the hype.

After the starting four, the depth chart is riddled with players who came in with rich accolades, but have yet to do much while wearing blue and gold. As their years of eligibility tick away or come to an end, names like Morrice Richardson, Emeka Nwankwo, Paddy Mullen (currently the fourth-string nose tackle as a senior), John Ryan, and Kallen Wade will need to prove their worth on the field, or give way to newcomers Sean Cwynar, Brandon Newman, Hafis Williams, and Tyler Stockton—all of whom are ready to produce this year.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Offensive Line

Kanka — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 16:58:00 -0400

Previously Covered
Quarterback
Halfback and Fullback
Wide Receiver
Tight End

Spotlight: Trevor Robinson

	G
2008	11

Also Returning: Braxston Cave, Taylor Dever, Paul Duncan, Andrew Nuss, Eric Olsen, Matt Romine, Chris Stewart, Jeff Tisak, Michael Turkovich, Dan Wenger, Sam Young
Lost: Thomas Bemenderfer, Jeff Tisak, Michael Turkovich (graduation)
Gained: Bill Flavin, Mike Hernandez (walk-ons), Lane Clelland, Mike Golic, Jr. (DNP as freshmen), Alex Bullard, Jordan Cowart, Tom Freeman, Zach Martin, Chris Watt (freshmen)

Notre Dame's troubled offensive line is out of excuses this year. They have depth, experience, and a new line coach in Frank "Don't Call Me Tom" Verducci. As for the spotlight player, Trevor Robinson: he originally earned the spotlight because his performance last year made him the first lineman off the bench in 2009, meaning he'd also be pushing to take someone's starting role. Well, it's still August and he's already done that. Robinson is currently listed as the starting right guard, pushing Chris Stewart to left guard, Eric Olsen to center, and Dan Wenger to the sidelines.

The current three-deep depth chart at offensive line should be a welcome sight to Irish fans for a number of reasons:
1. The fact that Notre Dame can actually list 15 different offensive linemen on their depth chart (16, really, since right guard is four-deep),
2. The fact that, outside of Robinson and Braxston Cave, the two-deep is comprised entirely of juniors and seniors, and
3. Only two true freshmen - Alex Bullard and Chris Watt - are needed to complete the three-deep. Of course, I'm sure it helps that Bullard and Watt already weigh in at at least 290 pounds.

Yes, Notre Dame's offensive line depth has finally started to stabilize. In addition to bringing in five freshmen, the Irish will also add the services of Lane Clelland and Mike Golic, who did not see the field as freshmen, and walk-ons Bill Flavin and Mike Hernandez. That's nine players, or almost two full lines! Hernandez is especially one to watch for, as the walk-on not only made the squad this fall, but he's also listed as co-third string right guard with freshman Chris Watt.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Tight End

Kanka — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 18:22:00 -0400

Previously Covered
Quarterback
Halfback and Fullback
Wide Receiver

Spotlight: Mike Ragone

	G	Rec	Yds	TD
2007	11	1	7	0

Also Returning: Kyle Rudolph
Lost: Kevin Brooks, Paul Kuppich, Luke Schmidt (graduation), Will Yeatman, Joseph Fauria (transfer)
Gained: Bobby Burger (walk-on), Tyler Eifert, Jake Golic (freshmen)

Nothing says "attrition" like the tight end position at Notre Dame. Just think how bad it would be if Notre Dame didn't have two starting tight ends in the NFL right now.

Fortunately, Mike Ragone's return from a knee injury will bring much-needed depth and experience to the position. Ragone is in the spotlight here, but Notre Dame fans will probably prefer it if opponents didn't pay attention to him. His main responsibility will be staying home as a pass blocker, freeing Kyle Rudolph to do damage as a receiver.

But speaking of Rudolph, don't count him out as a pass blocker. The sophomore has bulked up to 260 pounds, which should mean no more getting pushed around by linebackers on running plays. It's just one more step for Rudolph on his path to joining Anthony Fasano and John Carlson on Sundays.

Tyler Eifert and Jake Golic join the squad as freshman, and ideally they'll spend the year in the weight room (and the dining halls) to add bulk and preserve a year of eligibility.

But to keep Eifert and Golic off the field, Notre Dame will have to look at other options in short yardage situations. That could mean using extra offensive linemen as the Irish did in 2008, or it could mean turning to walk-on fullback/tight end Bobby Burger.

Even if he doesn't see the field, Burger is still an interesting story. Originally a defensive end at Dayton, he transferred to Notre Dame in the summer of 2008 but didn't plan to play football for the Irish—despite the fact his father was a guard for ND during the Devine years.

One year and a position change later, Burger joins the team as an H-Back. Oh, and playing football for the Irish isn't the only way Bobby plans to follow in the older Burger's footsteps—he also plans to become a medical doctor just like his dad.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Wide Receiver

Kanka — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 17:46:00 -0400

Previously Covered:
Quarterback
Halfback and Fullback

Spotlight: Robby Parris

	G	Rec	Yds	TD
2008	7	9	50	0

Also Returning: Brian Couglin, Michael Floyd, Dan Franco, Christopher Gurries, Duval Kamara, Kris Patterson, Golden Tate, Sam Vos, George West
Lost: David Grimes, Kris Patterson (graduation), Michael Garcia (position change - cornerback), Richard Jackson (transfer)
Gained: Barry Gallup, Jr. (position change—halfback), Derry Herlihy (walk-on), John Goodman, Deion Walker (DNP as freshmen), Shaquelle Evans, Roby Toma (freshman)

With all the talent on Notre Dame's roster, why give Robby Parris the spotlight? Quite simply, the Cleveland-area product has something to prove. Going into his final year of eligibility, Parris is hoping to prove that 2008 was a fluke, and that 2007 (when he was third on the team in catches and second in receiving yards) was a truer reflection of his talent.

After breakout seasons in 2008, Golden Tate and Michael Floyd have locked up starting spots on the Irish depth chart. But the third and fourth receiver spots are still in doubt. Veterans Parris and Duval Kamara appear to be the popular choices for those spots, but they'll have to battle bumps and bruises, a history of dropped passes, and a slew of untested players chomping at the bit.

John Goodman, Deion Walker, and Shaquelle Evans have yet to see a college field on game day, but all figure to make their debuts this year—and quite possibly replace Kamara and Parris on the depth chart.

In 2007, Notre Dame's wide receivers were nicknamed "the Smurfs" by their head coach, because of the short stature of the group. Now, the roster is littered with receivers 6'2" and above, and the lone remaining Smurfs, George West and Barry Gallup, will be lucky to play anything but special teams.

Meanwhile, freshman Smurf-in-training Roby Toma will likely spend the year off the field and in the weight room looking to add to his 5'9", 175-lbs. frame.

Last year, Notre Dame was forced to run multi-receiver sets a majority of the time because of the lack of depth at tight end. This year, they may run multi-receiver sets a majority of the time just to get their best talent on the field.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Halfback and Fullback

Kanka — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 18:30:00 -0400

Previously Covered
Quarterback

Spotlight: James Aldridge

	G	Att	Yds	TD
2008	12	91	357	3

Also Returning: Armando Allen, Jonas Gray, Robert Hughes, Steve Paskorz
Lost: Eras Noel, Nikolas Rodriguez, Asaph Schwapp (graduation), Barry Gallup, Jr. (position change - wide receiver)
Gained: Bobby Burger, Mike Narvaez (walk-ons), Theo Riddick, Cierre Wood (freshmen)

Charlie Weis' spotlight is on James Aldridge, and so is ours.

Facing a lack of depth at fullback, and a growing amount of talent at halfback, Coach Weis has asked Aldridge to become a blocker back in his senior year. Comparisons were quickly made to Rashon Powers-Neal, who had a very productive start to the 2005 season as a blocker, receiver, and short-yardage back.

Since then, Notre Dame has struggled to find any of those threats out of its backfield. Is Aldridge, a player with zero touchdowns coming into last year, and 11 career receptions, the answer? Only time will tell.

But who, if anyone, will line up in front of Aldridge on short-yardage situations? Outside of employing a walk-on, or stealing from an already-thin tight end corps, the choice seems to be converted linebacker Steve Paskorz.

Paskorz is already in his second year on the offensive side of the ball, and as Junior Jabbie proved, the move from defensive player to blocking back isn't an impossible task.

At halfback, Armando Allen has established himself as the starter. Allen's numbers may not be gaudy, but he does find a way to keep the ball moving down the field, both as a runner and as a pass catcher.

Behind Allen is classmate Robert Hughes, who enters 2009 at an impasse. Hughes is a big back who dances like a small back, and his approach brought little success in 2008. Challenged by his head coach to lose weight or start running like a bigger guy, Hughes has chosen the latter, and hopefully that will return him to the flashes of success he saw in 2007.

After Allen and Hughes are a trio of young, unproven backs.

Jonas Gray saw a good amount of garbage time in 2008, and responded with a few good runs, but also a few too many fumbles. Gray will need to learn to protect the football if he wants to make a case for future playing time ahead of freshmen Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood.

Notre Dame Football Position Preview: Quarterback

Kanka — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:42:00 -0400

This is the first in a series of previews of this year's Fighting Irish football team.

Spotlight: Jimmy Clausen

Height: 6'3"

Weight: 200 lbs.

G: 13

Comp.-Att.: 268-440

Yds.: 3172

TD: 25

INT: 17

Also Returning: Evan Sharpley, Brian Castello
Lost: Nick Lezynski (position change - cornerback), Nate Montana (transfer)
Gained: Dayne Crist (DNP as freshman), Matthew Mulvey (walk-on)

It's a do-or-die year for the quarterback maker, Charlie Weis, and his latest protege. Some consider Jimmy Clausen's performance against Hawaii the football version of a perfect game. But not every contest comes with a month to prepare and a poor pass defense. Clausen, despite popularity among his teammates, has yet to win over the Irish faithful. The Hawaii game may have started a turnaround, but those with longer memories recall a midseason slump by Clausen that was rash with poor decision making. (Hint: throwing the ball down the middle of the field and hoping Kyle Rudolph can outmuscle four defenders is not a good strategy.) Optimistic fans are quick to draw comparisons between the junior Clausen and Brady Quinn's breakout third season. If Clausen can repeat Quinn's success—and he has the weapons with which he can do it—fans will rally behind their blonde-haired hero and Robot Genius once again. If not, both Clausen and his head coach's time could be short in South Bend.

Evan Sharpley was drafted by the Seattle Mariners this past June, and has been tearing up the rookie leagues. Still, he was granted permission by the Mariners to return as a veteran backup to this year's Notre Dame squad. However, if all goes to plan—that is, if no one gets injured and Clausen doesn't give any reasons to be benched—Sharpley won't see any action until Senior Day. That's because Clausen's backup, Dayne Crist, is scheduled to get all the garbage minutes at quarterback. Hopefully, all of those minutes will be played with the Irish on the plus side of the scoreboard.

The Cleveland Indians Weekly Lineup Analysis

Kanka — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 17:34:00 -0400

Well, it hasn't exactly been weekly this season, but let's hope it is from here on out. To recap, we take the top-nine Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's "Lineup Analysis Tool" to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.

For This Week's Results, Click Here

This Week's Ideal Lineup:

Choo
Martinez
Cabrera
Hafner
Garko
Sizemore
Francisco
Peralta
Carroll

Theoretical Runs Per Game: 5.297

Theoretical Improvement

The Indians are currently scoring 4.938 runs per game, which isn't too bad in its own right. The ideal lineup is an improvement of 0.360 runs per game, or 58 runs over the course of a season.

That may not seem like much, but using the old saber-metric standby that 10 runs = 1 win, that's another 5-6 victories for the Tribe. Of course, they'd still be seven games back in the division.

Defensive Plausibility

Well, it's pretty much the same nine guys Cleveland trots out for every other game, so there are no problems here.

Fan Believability

It's hard to argue batting Hafner, Garko, Francisco, Peralta, and Carroll where they are. Choo's pretty realistic too, since he gets on base and runs relatively well (for this team at least).

But even in the midsts of a down season, fans would riot at Grady Sizemore hitting sixth. In addition, no coach on the hot seat would bat Victor Martinez second but Asdrubal Cabrera third.

My Take

It has been a while since I've done a lineup analysis. I'm happy how this turned out, because it gives me another chance to demonstrate how the lineup tool "envisions" each spot in the batting order. With a traditional lineup, the best on-base guy bats lead-off and the biggest masher hits cleanup. Shin-Soo Choo leads the team in on base percentage, while Travis Hafner leads the team in slugging.

The No. 2 hitter is supposed to be your best all-around hitter—good in both OBP and SLG, but one isn't drastically higher than the other. Check that one off with Victor Martinez.

The No. 5 guy is your second-best all-around hitter. To Nino's delight, I'm sure, that's Ryan Garko.

What's interesting is the No. 3 spot. Contrary to popular thought, this model normally puts a bad hitter there, just for lack of a better spot, and with the intent to space out the out-makers. But Asdrubal Cabrera is fifth on the team in OPS, so I'm not sure why he was placed there.

Your No. 9 guy isn't necessarily a good hitter, but it should be someone who can get on base. That's Jamey Carroll in a nutshell. The rest of the lineup, spots six through eight, are whoever's left in descending order of ability.

Random Indians Thought of the Week

This week, I have two thoughts about the Indians. However, they're not so random because they still pertain to this lineup analysis.

It's a small sample of only 20 at bats, but Josh Barfield is actually third on the team in OPS this year. I'll leave a lineup analysis that includes him as an exercise for the reader.

Also, coming into Thursday's game against the Blue Jays, Chris Gimenez had a higher OPS than Jhonny Peralta on the year, meaning I would have used Gimenez instead of Peralta in this week's analysis. Interestingly, both Barfield and Gimenez could replace Peralta at third to keep the lineup defensively plausible.

As it stands, Peralta, Gimenez, and Kelly Shoppach are all in a very close race for the ninth-best OPS on the team. In a year like this, I'm actually curious to see how Shoppach would fare at the hot corner.

Jhonny Peralta: Cold Like the Weather

Kanka — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 22:07:00 -0400

From Andy Castrovince's latest mailbag:

I'd be interested to see Jhonny Peralta's batting average in warm weather vs. cold weather. He was red hot down in Arizona this spring, but now he seems ice cold, much like the first six weeks of last season. Great Odin's raven, am I on to something here?
-- Tim R., San Diego

I'd love to help you find those numbers, but, much like the translation of the name for your hometown, scholars maintain that the ability to calculate such statistics was lost hundreds of years ago.

Actually, I asked hitting coach Derek Shelton and media relations director Bart Swain if they've ever heard of such a stat, and neither has. You'd really have to be the obsessive-compulsive type (even by baseball statistician standards) to calculate those numbers, especially when you consider the temperature at first pitch can take a drastic dip by the last pitch.

Well, when it comes to the Indians (and especially Peralta, apparently), I am that obsessive-compulsive baseball statistician. After reading the question, I immediately thought, "I bet Retrosheet tracks weather information. Sure enough, they do.

If you want me to bore you with the details, email me. Otherwise, let's skip to the pretty picture:

The short explanation is that I took Peralta's batting average (hits/at bats, obviously) for each gametime temperature reading. As you can see, there is an upward trend. Thoughts:

There's no context. Maybe all, or at least most, hitters follow the same trend. That would make this "revelation" meaningless.

Correlation is not causation. It's warm at midseason, when hitters are thought to be at their best, and when the ball is said to travel better. It's cold at the beginning of the season, when hitters aren't yet in "midseason form", and at the end, when fatigue starts to set in. So, again, maybe this is a trend for everyone and not just Jhonny.

I'd be interested to see weather-related trends for other statistics, starting with BABIP and OPS, and perhaps moving onto the more advanced stuff.

Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis

Kanka — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:27:00 -0400

Back again for its second season, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.

This Week's Results
Click Here

This Week's Ideal Lineup
Cabrera
Martinez
Garko
Hafner
Choo
Sizemore
Shoppach
Francisco
Peralta

Theoretical Runs Per Game
A whopping 6.524.

Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 5.368 runs per game, which is impressive in its own right. But the ideal lineup is an improvement of 1.156 runs per game, or 187 runs over the course of a season. That's an additional 18-19 runs.

Defensive Plausibility
This team isn't too bad defensively, except it lacks a third baseman. The best candidate appears to be Travis Hafner, who played 29 minor league games at the hot corner.

Fan Believability
Defensively, there's the issue with third base. Offensively, the lineup is very believable outside of Grady Sizemore getting bumped down to sixth. You might not readily think of Asdrubal Cabrera as a leadoff hitter and Jhonny Peralta as a ninth-place hitter, but of late the former has been surging and the latter has been struggling.

My Take
This again is a good example of how the lineup tool is supposed to work. The best overall hitter (in this case, Victor Martinez) is batting second, and the next best overall hitter (Shin-Soo Choo) is fifth.

The top OBP guy is hitting leadoff. Believe it or not, that's Asdrubal Cabrera, who was recently promoted to the number two spot in the lineup in real life.

Random Indians Thought of the Week
Don't judge Cliff Lee by his win total this season. He has more than a few things working against him. Not only is he due for some regression, but he also has people gunning for him as the reigning Cy Young Winner.

Plus, he'll be facing other teams' aces this year, whereas last year he was facing other teams' fifth starters. That means last year's 5-2 wins are this year's 2-1 losses. Oh, and he got "lucky" by facing an inordinate number of bad teams last year.

If anyone for the Indians can repeat Cliff Lee's performance this year, it's Aaron Laffey. Not only is Laffey off to a hot start, but he's also "pulling a Cliff Lee" by facing fourth and fifth starters, and so far facing poorer teams. (Two of his three starts this year have been against the Royals.)

Love and Sabermetrics on the Softball Diamond

Kanka — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 20:38:00 -0400

I jumped head first into managing a co-ed softball team during the summer of 2007. It was a memorable experience - especially since it introduced me to my soon-to-be-wife - and I've often thought about turning it into a book.

But I'd sat on that idea until recently, when Baseball Prospectus announced its BP Idol contest. Below is my entry, and hopefully an introduction to future posts about that fateful season.

It's the kind of thing that can only happen in an adult co-ed league. Four couples had gotten pregnant, meaning eight members of our team would be unavailable for the upcoming slow-pitch softball season—including our manager.

Our team was in danger of missing the season unless someone stepped up to manage. I knew I wanted to run a team someday, but I never imagined it could happen in only my third year in the league.

Still, for better or for worse, I accepted the challenge. The first step was to fill out the roster. I was lucky enough to have seven returning players, including myself. I was also lucky that these seven were hungry for playing time and (relatively) talented. More importantly, none of them was with child.

To complete the team, I called in every last favor I had, essentially digging up every high-school classmate still in the area. But even that wasn’t enough, as the league rules dictate that we needed an even number of men and women in the lineup at all times. Apparently I didn’t know that many girls.

So a coworker took the liberty of signing up not only herself, but her sister and a friend as well. Sure, the other girls had never played before, but at least we could all get a cheap laugh out of that, my coworker promised.

With a team together, it was time to pick a lineup. Unfortunately, we didn’t have much time to practice before the season, so my chances to evaluate the available talent were limited. Fortunately, this burgeoning stathead had some sabermetric tricks up his sleeve.

Without any statistics at the beginning of the season, I had to choose a batting order the traditional way. Our speedy, high energy guy would lead off. Of course, my decision was aided by his impassioned, two-page email to me explaining how hitting leadoff gets his juices flowing and can help spark the team.

Our lone power hitter would bat third, and our most consistent line drive hitter (a guy who was greatly underappreciated on our past teams) would hit fifth. League rules required us to alternate men and women in the lineup, so I essentially ordered the girls in descending order by my limited understanding of their abilities.

It just so happened that the girl who would be hitting second had a little speed, and the girl who would be hitting fourth had a little pop. To round out the lineup, and to avoid favoritism, I hit myself ninth and our lone unplaced guy seventh.

The next task was to configure our defense. Again, the league gave us a few guidelines. The pitcher and catcher had to be of opposite genders, and there had to be two guys and two girls each in the infield and outfield (with four total outfielders).

As a starting point, I did some research and created an initial defensive spectrum for slow-pitch softball:

C – RF – 2B – RC – 1B – LF – LC – 3B – SS – P

Yes, this was largely based on the pre-1920s spectrum found on Wikipedia. My main premise was that slow-pitch softball is dominated by pull-happy righties, so the four spots on the left side of the diamond are the most valuable.

Now, one could argue that catcher, right field, and second base are more valuable than where they are shown here. But the reality was that any alignment I put out on the field would have some holes, so I just tried to minimize the damage.

As for first base—well, in baseball first base is low on the defensive spectrum because it doesn’t take much skill. But in slow-pitch softball, especially with this team, the ability to consistently catch a thrown ball was not a skill that could be taken for granted.

The preliminary spectrum set, I did my best to break each position down into a skillset, evaluating my players’ range, glove skills, and arm. The arrangement I came up with looked good – at least on paper. Our best infielder went to short—nevermind that he was left-handed.

Of our two best women, one didn’t want to play outfield, so she went to third and the other to left. Our aforementioned speedy, high-energy guy ended up in left center while I manned right center. The remaining positions were filled by people who actually had experience at their respective spots, and for lack of a better options our slugger volunteered to pitch.

There may be no pride in taking a walk in slow-pitch softball, but this team needed all the help it could get—especially since a league rule gave guys two bases on a walk, intentional or not. (In addition, if a guy walked with two outs, the girl behind him had the option to take their normal at bat or also take a walk.)

Fortunately, that rule didn’t differentiate between guys who normally hit the ball 400 feet and guys who normally hit the ball 40. So I preached patience, and it showed off to some extent, as the leader board for walks was peppered with both men and women from my team.

A few weeks into the season, the league batting stats were passed out, and I eagerly dug in. I had been waiting for the stats not only to check my own performance, but to use them to better construct my batting order.

I planned to use Dave Pinto’s Lineup Analysis Tool, but I had to modify it to accommodate the guy/girl rule. It was nothing a little Perl hack couldn’t handle.

The end result still had the girls in descending order by OPS, but this time it was the slugger batting second and the speedster (who apparently struggled in the transition to slow-pitch) batting fourth.

For the guys, I found myself hitting leadoff, thanks in no small part to many dates at the batting cages with the then-right fielder (and my current fiancée). All the other guys slid down a spot.

Sure, it took some explaining and convincing, but I pulled it off. Our high-energy guy accepted the move to third, and our ego-driven slugger tolerated the move to fifth after a white lie about giving him more baserunners to drive in.

As the season wore on, and the losses piled up, several members of the team found they had more important things to do than play for a winless softball team with a megalomaniacal manager.

Late in the summer, we found ourselves playing with only nine people more often than not. That meant taking an out every turn through the lineup, a major blow for a team that already had trouble scoring runs. But perhaps more importantly, it meant one less fielder.

One time we faced the league’s juggernaut with only nine players. Knowing the opponents’ power-hitting potential, I pulled another trick out of my sleeve: the 3-4 defense. This wasn’t a Boudreau shift like many of the Major Leagues’ best lefties face today; it was four outfielders playing straight across with only three full-time infielders.

I was normally overmatched at shortstop, but such was our personnel that day that I tasked myself with cover both middle infield positions. I did a few leaps and spins around the keystone sack to make things look impressive, but all in all there was too much ground to cover for me to be effective.

As it turned out, though, the 3-4 defense was our best option against that team. Later that year, we again faced the juggernaut with only nine of our own players. On that 95-degree day, I made the mistake of going with three outfielders, thinking the three outfielders we had were good enough to cover that ground.

Three dehydrated outfielders and 30 runs (as of the time the scoreboard stopped counting) later, our winless team was handed what was perhaps the worst defeat in league history.

But we had fun. Oh, did we have fun! I haven’t been able to run my own team these past few seasons, but I’m still playing. I hope to make my triumphant return to managing in the summer of 2010. Hopefully the lessons I’ve learned will help the team win a few games. Or at least one.

Hey, we have to start somewhere.

American League Central Preview

Kanka — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 19:56:00 -0400

Cleveland Indians

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Grady Sizemore CF
Mark DeRosa 3B
Travis Hafner DH
Victor Martinez C
Jhonny Peralta SS
Shin-Soo Choo RF
Ryan Garko 1B
Ben Francisco RF
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B

Rotation
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Scott Lewis
Anthony Reyes
Jeremy Sowers
Aaron Laffey
Zach Jackson
Jake Westbrook

After a bittersweet 2007 and a disastrous 2008, the Indians are predicted to win the Central in 2009. That's thanks in no small part to their offense—one that scored 800 runs last year despite prolonged injuries to third and fourth hitters Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez.

Martinez is back, as is Hafner to an unknown extent, and they're joined by legit two-hole hitter Mark DeRosa. DeRosa and Kelly Shoppach give the Indians infield flexibility. DeRosa can play second or third (or outfield), which gives Cleveland the chance to decide what they want to do with Jhonny Peralta and Asdrubal Cabrera defensively.

For the time being, Peralta will remain at third and Cabrera at second, with DeRosa playing third. Meanwhile, Kelly Shoppach has proven himself to be an everyday catcher, even if he won't have a chance in that role this year. He will have plenty of chances to play though, and give Victor Martinez opportunities at first base and DH.

In the outfield, Grady Sizemore is joined by Ben Francisco and the emerging Shin-Soo Choo. To some, Francisco is just a placeholder until Matt LaPorta arrives, but Francisco is still a solid ballplayer in his own right.

On the bench, Jamey Carroll returns as a versatile utility infielder with good on base skills. Speaking of versatility, former up-and-coming second baseman Josh Barfield appears to have made the 2009 club out of spring training after adding third base and all three outfield spots to his repertoire. David Dellucci will fight for playing time in the outfield, but with guys like Choo, Francisco, LaPorta, Trevor Crowe, and Michael Brantley waiting in the wings (and Barfield, Carroll, and LaPorta's ability to play outfield), Dellucci's days in Cleveland may be numbered.

To some extent, Cleveland's starting rotation looks good on paper, but it relies on some faith and optimism. No one expects Cliff Lee to repeat his 2008 performance, but the hope is that he'll pitch at least as well as he did prior to his 2007 collapse. Fausto Carmona dominated in 2007, but then the league learned to be patient and ride out his control problems.

Now the ball's back in Carmona's court when it comes to making adjustments. Carl Pavano, it appears, is healthy again, and the Indians hope he can repeat the flashes of brilliance he showed with the Expos and Marlins. Rounding out the rotation are Scott Lewis and Anthony Reyes, two pleasant surprises in 2008 who look to repeat in 2009.
If they cannot, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Zach Jackson and a host of others are waiting in the wings. Jake Westbrook will also be a much needed shot in the arm when he returns from Tommy John rehab in June.

As Michael Taylor of Baseball Digest put it, "it's an odd year, so the Indians bullpen must be good. After a horrendous 2008, Cleveland made active strides to improve their bullpen, signing closer Kerry Wood and trading for setup man Joe Smith. Joining Wood and Smith are the two bright spots from 2008, bulldog interim closer Jensen Lewis and left setup maestro Rafael Perez. Rafael Betancourt is also back, and will look to rebound from arm troubles that limited his speed and effectiveness in 2008.

Detroit Tigers

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Curtis Granderson CF
Placido Polanco 2B
Carlos Guillen LF
Magglio Ordonez RF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Gary Sheffield DH
Gerald Laird C
Brandon Inge 3B
Adam Everett SS

Rotation
Justin Verlander
Edwin Jackson
Armando Galarraga
Jeremy Bonderman
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis

Detroit's projected lineup is an interesting mix of on base skills, power, and defense. The batting order breaks down pretty neatly that way too—the top three guys get on, the next three hit them in, and the final three are mostly there for defense. Of course, Carbera and Ordonez are quality on base guys too, and Laird is a fairly good hitting catcher. But it's not often you see an offense broken down so neatly.

Detroit's bench features the same familiar names Tigers fans are used to—Ramon Santiago in the infield, and Brent Clevlen, Ryan Raburn, Marcus Thames, and Clete Thomas in the outfield.

Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge give the Tigers some position flexibility, which may mean increased playing time for Marcus Thames. Of course, with Guillen moving to the outfield this year, it may mean plenty of playing time for one of the other outfield backups as a defensive replacements.

Inge, meanwhile, may not need to strap on the tools of ignorance this season, as Detroit has found a capable backup in Matt Treanor, husband of some Olympic volleyball player you may have heard of.

Baseball Prospectus expects fairly good things for Detroit's pitching staff, predicting they will lead the division with only 777 runs surrendered. But that may come as little comfort to Tigers fans. For starters, Detroit has taken Edwin Jackson—the odd man out in Tampa Bay's rotation—and made him their No. 2 starter. They're also expecting fairly big things from last year's surprise ace Armando Galarraga.

"Young veterans" Verlander and Bonderman have had their ups and downs, but they'll have to pitch well to get Detroit back in the playoffs.

When none of their young fireballers could hold down the closer's role, Detroit acquired experienced stopper Brandon Lyon. Lyon will be supported by two of those fireballers—Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, familiar face Bobby Seay, and young veteran Zach Miner.

Kansas City Royals

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Coco Crisp CF
David DeJesus LF
Mark Teahen 2B
Jose Guillen RF
Mike Jacobs 1B
Alex Gordon 3B
Billy Butler DH
Miguel Olivo C
Mike Aviles SS

Rotation
Gil Meche
Zack Greinke
Kyle Davies
Brian Bannister
Luke Hochevar
Horacio Ramirez
Sidney Ponson
John Bale

Yes, that's the Kansas City Royals that Baseball Prospectus has in first place, two games ahead of last year's division winner and tied with the team that took that division winner to a one-game playoff. The Royals are a team on the rise, but at the same time they seem to match every good move with a baffling one.

Good move: trading for Coco Crisp to move David DeJesus down toward the heart of the lineup and out of center field. Baffling move: trading for Mike Jacobs, a guy who hits for some power but who doesn't get on base and doesn't play good defense.

Good move: getting Mike Aviles and in the lineup.

Baffling move: trying Mark Teahen at second base, especially with the aforementioned poor fielding Jacobs at first. Of course, you do have to give the Royals credit for doing what it takes to put all their best bats on the field.

Bonus baffling move: signing Willie Bloomquist. Bloomquist plays at least average defense at every position, and he's a good piece to have on a contending ballclub. But a team like the Royals have much more important things to spend their money on. John Buck will back up Miguel Olivo, and the starting nod will probably go to whomever is hitting better at the time.

Tony Pena, Jr. was statistically the worst offensive player in baseball last season, and this year he'll fight to keep a job with the parent club. Maybe the Royals should think of moving him to pitcher. In one mound appearance last season, Pena threw in the low 90s with decent movement. Imagine how he'd do with the proper training and practice.

One of the big reasons for Kansas City's predicted success is its stockpile of young, talented pitching. Gil Meche was a baffling move ($55 million free agent signing) that turned into a brilliant move. Meche is joined in the rotation by homegrown talent in Zack Greinke and Luke Hochevar and crafty trade acquisition Brian Bannister.

Good move, bullpen addition: picking up Joakim Soria in the 2008 Rule V draft and making him a closer.

Baffling move, bullpen edition: throwing millions of dollars at Kyle Farnsworth. Sure he throws hard, but there's a reason why Major League hitters are the best in the world: they'll catch up to speed eventually. Fortunately, Kansas City does have some other versatile arms in their bullpen, including Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay, Joel Peralta, Robinson Tejada, Jamey Wright, Brandon Duckworth, and Doug Waechter.

Minnesota Twins

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Denard Span/Delmon Young LF
Carlos Gomez CF
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Mike Cuddyer/Denard Span RF
Jason Kubel DH
Joe Crede 3B
Alexi Casilla 2B
Nick Punto SS

Rotation
Francisco Liriano
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Glen Perkins
Nick Blackburn

The Twins have always been over-infatuated with slap hitters, but they've always seemed to make it work, especially in the Metrodome. It'll be interesting to see how playing time shakes down in the outfield, especially considering that to date, Denard Span is basically a better version of Carlos Gomez. Minnesota had been looking for a third baseman since the middle of last year, and they found one in Joe Crede. The Twins left side of the infield will rival Detroit's in terms of its defense first, offense second mentality. As always, the offense will revolve around Justin Morneau (this generation's Don Mattingly?) and Joe Mauer, and as always Minnesota's main concern will be keeping Mauer healthy.

If Mauer can't stay healthy, Mike Redmond has always been a capable backup. On the infield, the utility spots are up for grabs between Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert.

Minnesota has been a factory of young pitching talent for the past two decades. Even with Boof Bonser out for the season, the Twins still have a respectable rotation headlined by Francisco Liriano and featuring Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Nick Blackburn.

Joe Nathan is still one of the best closers in the business. As usual, he'll have a great supporting cast. Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are back, as is Craig Breslow, who pitched brilliantly for Minnesota after being released by division rival Cleveland.

Chicago White Sox

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Dewayne Wise CF
Chris Getz 2B
Carlos Quentin LF
Jermaine Dye RF
Jim Thome DH
Paul Konerko 1B
AJ Pierzynski C
Alexei Ramirez SS
Josh Fields 3B

Rotation
Mark Buehrle
John Danks
Gavin Floyd
Jose Contreras
Bartolo Colon
Clayton Richard
Jeffrey Marquez

As always, the computers hate the White Sox. Fortunately for Chicago, their combination of small ball and power hitting always seems to outperform the predictions (much as Minnesota's combination of small ball and speed normally does). Chicago's aging core of Dye, Thome, Konerko, and Pierzynski remains intact, with 2008 breakout stars Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez added to the mix. The question is whether this year's new faces—Wise, Getz, and Fields—will hit well enough to keep their spots.

If Wise, Getz, and Fields can't, the White Sox may not have anyone to replace them - unless they want to rush 2008 top draft pick Gordon Beckham to the majors. Outside of new pickup Wilson Betemit, most of Chicago's bench is comprised of players whose bats never developed enough to become everyday players. That mix includes Brent Lillibridge, Colorado castoff Jayson Nix, Jerry Owens, and Brian Anderson. (Arguably, Betemit may belong in this category as well.)

After trading away Javier Vazquez, questions begin to creep in concerning Chicago's starting rotation. Mark Buehrle is a stalwart ace. But behind him are too much youth in John Danks and Gavin Floyd, and not enough youth in Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon.

At least the back end of the bullpen won't be a question for the ChiSox. Bobby Jenks is back as the closer, with Octavio Dotel working the eighth and Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton, and DJ Carrasco leading into them.

National League Central Preview

Kanka — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 15:37:22 -0400

Chicago Cubs

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Alfonso Soriano LF
Ryan Theriot SS
Derrek Lee 1B
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Milton Bradley RF
Geovany Soto C
Mike Fontenot 2B
Kosuke Fukudome/Reed Johnson CF

Rotation
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Rich Harden
Sean Marshall
Aaron Heilman
Jeff Samardzija

The Cubs won 97 games last year, and they may have actually found a way to improve. The major addition is Milton Bradley. Bradley isn't capable of playing 162 games at DH, much less in the field, so Kosuke Fukodome and Reed Johnson will get their fair share of at-bats.

Still, the number of at-bats for each will be below 600, and in the end that reduced workload should pay off for the Cubs. There's still some debate about Alfonso Soriano's ideal location in the batting order, but at this point in his career, his own comfort level is just as important as anything else.

The loss of Mark DeRosa and Ronny Cedeno makes Chicago exceptionally thin on the infield, especially if Micah Hoffpauir is given a roster spot. Hoffpauir can only play first base and left field. That leaves the utility infield responsibility to Aaron Miles and/or Esteban German.

That's little comfort if Ryan Theriot or Mike Fontenot falter. In the outfield, Joey Gathright's speed will try to find some playing time, and at catcher, familiar faces Paul Bako and Koyie Hill will look to back up Geovany Soto.

The continuing theme of these previews is that two pitching aces equals playoff success. If all goes well for the Cubs, they'll have three in Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Harden. Ryan Dempster is a good complementary starter, leaving only the fifth spot in the rotation up for grabs. But there are more than a few capable candidates, including Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman, and Jeff Samardzija.

In the bullpen, the Cubs lost Kerry Wood and may have actually gotten better. Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg both have closing experience. Heilman, Samardzija, and Chad Gaudin are versatile players who can fill any role. And veterans Neal Cotts and Luis Vizcaino round out the staff.

Milwaukee Brewers

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rickie Weeks 2B
JJ Hardy SS
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Corey Hart RF
Bill Hall 3B
Mike Cameron CF
Jason Kendall C

Rotation
Yovani Gallardo
Dave Bush
Jeff Suppan
Manny Parra
Braden Looper
Seth McClung
Carlos Villanueva

The Brewers liked to bat the pitcher eighth at times, but you really can't blame them when they had CC Sabathia and Jason Kendall at the time. Kendall is back, but Sabathia isn't. Bill Hall and Mike Cameron may not be stellar hitters, but they're good role players in a lineup that features Hardy, Braun, Fielder, and Hart. Yes, I included JJ Hardy in that list—he doesn't get much hype, but he's a very good hitter for his position.

Milwaukee's bench is highlighted by Tony Gwynn, Jr. and the veteran Craig Counsell. But for a farm system that has produced (at the time) four quality infielders in Fielder, Weeks, Braun, and Hardy, the surprise is that their best third baseman and middle infielder may still be in the minors.

The third baseman is Mat Gamel, who may struggle to stay at that position, and the middle infielder is Alcides Escobar, a shortstop who may supplant Rickie Weeks and second base sooner rather than later. All this after trading away top first baseman Matt LaPorta, too.

Now, the rotation will be a question mark. Yovani Gallardo may have fallen off of a few radars due to injuries, but he's still a talented young pitcher. But relying on converted relievers (Looper and McClung) and some other retreads may not be enough to eclipse the Cubs in this division.

In the bullpen, the Brewers will rely on a bevy of veteran arms. But that's better than the the plan they employed in 2008, marching out a steady supply of post-steroids washups (Eric Gagne and Derrick Turnbow to name a pair). Trevor Hoffman becomes the Milwaukee closer, aided by David Riske, Jorge Julio, and Mark DiFelice.

St. Louis Cardinals

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Skip Schumaker 2B
Rick Ankiel CF
Albert Pujols 1B
Ryan Ludwick RF
Troy Glaus 3B
Khalil Greene SS
Yadier Molina C
Chris Duncan LF

Rotation
Adam Wainwright
Chris Carpenter
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel Pineiro
Brad Thompson

Outside of Albert Pujols, St. Louis' infield is a question mark. Troy Glaus is always an injury issue, and as it is he won't be ready until mid-April. At shortstop, the Cards acquired Khalil Greene, a record-setting hitter in college who hasn't been able to replicate that success in the majors.

Left without a second baseman, Skip Shumacher will try to climb the wrong way up the defensive ladder from outfield to the keystone sack. If Schumacher doesn't work out, St. Louis doesn't have many other options.

In the outfield, Ryan Ludwick will try to prove he's not a one-year wonder, aided by Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan, both of who had respectable years last season.

The top name on the bench is Colby Rasmus, Baseball America's top National League prospect. Rasmus's defense is ready to be an everyday center fielder, and the question is whether his bat is up to speed.

If not, he can still serve as a respectable defensive replacement at all three outfield spots. Meanwhile, backing up Yadier Molina is veteran National Leaguer Jason LaRue.

The Cardinals' pitching rotation may not feature any big names, but they did find success last season. If Chris Carpenter can return anywhere near is Cy Young form—and some think he can, that will only help this ballclub.

The rotation may have to carry the pitching staff, however, with all the questions in the bullpen. The closer spot is still up in the air, and may go to Ryan Franklin, Jason Motte, or Chris Perez. Also fighting for bullpen spots are veterans Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes.

Cincinnati Reds

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Willy Taveras CF
Chris Dickerson LF
Jay Bruce RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Joey Votto 1B
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Ramon Hernandez C
Alex Gonzalez SS

Rotation
Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Micah Owings
Homer Bailey
Ramon Ramirez
Daryl Thompson

Perhaps indicative of this club's manager, only three players in this lineup posted an OBP over .320 last year—Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and Chris Dickerson—and Dickerson did so in only 31 games. This team has talent with Bruce, Phillips, and even guys like Ramon Hernandez, but if that club keeps making outs, there's little hope for them.

The key name on Cincinnati's bench is Jeff Keppinger, who performed admirably at shortstop when Alex Gonzalez went down last year. Jerry Hairston, Jr. is a valuable piece who can play several positions.

Other names fighting for bench spots fit into the Dusty Baker mold well, sacrificing OBP for speed or pop. Those names include Norris Hopper, Jacque Jones, and Jonny Gomes.

Cincinnati's rotation has some talent, and that talent was somewhat masked by the team's overall poor performance last year. Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto all lost over 10 games, but posted ERAs under five.

Edinson Volquez had a spectacular season, going 17-6 with an ERA of 3.21. Even slight regression would still lead to a solid season for Volquez. The final spot in the rotation will go to one of a pair of guys who have trouble translating their talent into production in the majors.

Micah Owings, the PTBNL in the Adam Dunn trade, and Homer Bailey both come with tons of hype but few good results in the show.

The Reds' bullpen features three quality names with save experience. Francisco Cordero is the closer, supported by Arthur Rhodes and former Cincinnati closer David Weathers.

Houston Astros

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Michael Bourn CF
Kaz Matsui 2B
Miguel Tejada SS
Lance Berkman 1B
Carlos Lee LF
Hunter Pence RF
Ivan Rodriguez C
Geoff Blum 3B

Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Brandon Backe
Mike Hampton
Brian Moehler
Chris Sampson
Alberto Arias

Houston is returning six offensive starters from last year, and now adds Ivan Rodriguez. But Pudge isn't the offensive powerhouse he once was. Still, Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada, and Carlos Lee still are.

The main question in the lineup may be why Lance Berkman, who once patrolled center field for the Astros, is now at first base while Carlos Lee, never an asset on defense, is still in the outfield.

The bench consists largely of aging retreads, including Darrin Erstad, David Newhan, and Jason Michaels. Aaron Boone would be on that list if it wasn't for a heart condition that will force him to sit out 2009. The infield is thin, with starting third baseman Geoff Blum currently listed as the primary backup at second and third.

Houston's ace is Team USA's ace, Roy Oswalt. Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez had decent seasons in 2008, but the rest of the rotation is questionable. Mike Hampton was decent when healthy, and Brian Moehler had a solid season for a back-of-the-rotation starter. But Brandon Backe has a career ERA over five and Russ Ortiz didn't pitch in the Majors in 2008.

Houston has traditionally produced quality closers and setup men from their organization. This year, they'll use imports to man the back end of their bullpen. Jose Valverde will close, aided by veterans Geoff Geary, LaTroy Hawkins (Oswalt's WBC teammate), and Doug Brocail.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Nyjer Morgan LF
Freddy Sanchez 2B
Nate McLouth CF
Ryan Doumit C
Brandon Moss/Erin Hinske RF
Adam LaRoche 1B
Andy LaRoche 3B
Jack Wilson SS

Rotation
Paul Maholm
Ian Snell
Zach Duke
Russ Ohlendorf
Jeff Karstens
Virgil Vasquez
Phil Dumatrait

Last year, Pittsburgh made a statement that they want to be good in the future, instead of being perpetually mediocre in the present. Nate McLouth may not repeat his success from last year, but he's still established himself as a Major Leaguer.

In that way, he's followed in the footsteps of Freddy Sanchez. As a full time player, Ryan Doumit may be that man this year. Adam LaRoche is a steady hitter. While brother Andy's prospect status has lost some luster, he's still a few years away from his prime.

Pittsburgh has some decent talent in their starting rotation, even with Tom Gorzelanny back down in the minors. As with most teams with poor offenses, you can't judge the starting pitchers by their win-loss records. Look for a big year from Ian Snell after he proudly represented Puerto Rico, the homeland of his stepfather and his wife.

Pittsburgh's bullpen is highlighted by returning closer Matt Capps. Capps will be supported by John Grabow, Tyler Yates, Chris Bootcheck, Evan Meek, and Donald Veal, a rule V pickup from the Cubs organization. Oh, and there's also Rinku and Dinesh.

Stathead Bracketology

Kanka — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 13:49:55 -0400

I participate in two NCAA bracket competitions every year.

One (through this site) uses fairly straightforward scoring based on the round and nothing else. The other uses upset bonus points: When the lower seed wins, you get the normal points for the win (one for the first round, two for the second, etc.) plus bonus points worth the difference in the two seeds.

For example, for picking a 12-seed over a five-seed in the first round, you get one point for the win plus 12-5=7 bonus points, for eight points total.

Now, being statistically inclined, I wanted to use mathematical methods in each. Here's what I did.

Straightforward Scoring: The Pomeroy Ratings

For my straightforward bracket, I decided to employ the Pomeroy Ratings. I used the Fremeau Efficiency Index Ratingswith great success in our BCS Bowl Pick 'Em a few months ago, so I wanted to go with a similarly statistically-inclined system for the basketball pool.

I did it the simplest way possible, too. For each matchup, first round through final, I picked the team with the higher Pomeroy Rating.

(Note that the ratings are being continuously updated through the tournament, so the ratings as they are right now do not match what they were when I made my picks the day before the tournament started.)

Some notes:

Memphis is No. 1 in the ratings, and therefore my champion.

The ratings "predicted" Wisconsin's win over Florida State.

All of the six seeds were apparently undervalued by the selection committee. Going by the Pomeroy Ratings, all of the sixes except Marquette were expected to beat the three seeds in their respective brackets and advance to the Sweet 16.

West Virginia was in Pomeroy's top 10, which should have gotten them into Elite Eight. But I guess Dayton had something to say about that.

I did "cheat" and pick Cleveland State in the first round, since my dad was a two-time basketball letterman there. I'd be kicking myself this morning if I hadn't picked them.

My "straightforward bracket" can be found as a Google Doc here.

Upset Bracket: The Expected Value Method

Last year, I outlined a method for using expected values to make picks in a pool with upset points. Well, I'm happy to say that my method worked. Thanks to a bevy of first round upsets last year, I built a big lead and was able to withstand a single competitor to win the pool.

I did have to sweat out the last rounds as my bracket started to fall apart, but I was so far ahead that it didn't matter.

As with last year, I used a different method for each regional. Two were methods (b) and (c) from Part Two of last year's post. The other two were "controls." On one regional, I would pick only the top seeds for every game.

On the other, I would pick by feel. Actually, I even took the human element of "feel" out this year, instead picking by the Pomeroy method chosen above.

Thanks to the Pomeroy bracket I filled out first, I was able to pick and choose which method I would use on each regional. And I will admit that I did allow for the human element to creep in when making my decisions.

I used the two different expected value upset methods on the Midwest and South regionals. This mainly allowed me to advance West Virginia to the Elite Eight again (whoops), and pick Cleveland State in the first round.

I made the East my Pomeroy regional, mainly so I could take Wisconsin in the first round and put six seed UCLA in the Sweet 16. That left the West as my higher seeds only regional. Unfortunately, that means I won't have Memphis as my winner in this bracket, but maybe hedging my bets isn't a bad thing.

Once I got to the Final Four, where the seeds don't matter anymore, I went back to the Pomeroy Ratings to determine the final's participants and eventual winners.

First Round Results

My straightforward bracket isn't doing so hot, garnering only 23 of a possible 32 points, with one Elite Eight team (West Virginia) and one Sweet 16 team (Utah) down.

My bonus points bracket is doing fantastic, though, as it nailed all three 12 seed wins plus the Cleveland State upset. I am down an Elite Eight team in West Virginia, but the 57 points I did pick up should again give me a lead that's difficult to catch.

American League East Preview

Kanka — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 15:06:00 -0400

New York Yankees

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup

1. Johnny Damon, LF
2. Derek Jeter, SS
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Xavier Nady, RF
8. Robinson Cano, 2B
9. Brett Gardner/Nick Swisher/Melky Cabrera, CF

Rotation

CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Chien-Ming Wang
Andy Pettitte
Joba Chamberlain
Phillip Hughes
Alfredo Aceves
Ian Kennedy
Dan Giese

Sure, the lineup takes a hit with the loss of Alex Rodriguez. But an offense that was one of the best in 2008 shouldn't have any trouble going into 2009, with or without A-Rod.

Yes, I'll acknowledge that Damon, Jeter, Matsui, and Posada are all a year older, but they're still very effective hitters.

The open competition in center should only help the club, especially if Nick Swisher manages to fully bounce back from a down 2008. At the moment, he's a luxury the club can afford to trade, but they may want to wait until after the start of the season, so Swisher can bounce back and New York can sell high.

Utility infielder Cody Ransom, now 33, is expected to fill in at third to start the season, with help from former Royals shortstop Angel Berroa. Jose Molina, meanwhile, returns as the backup catcher.

A common theme in season previews is that it takes two aces to have any success in the postseason. With the addition of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, the Yankees now have three (and possibly four if Joba Chamberlain can live up to his hype).

Injuries will be a concern for Burnett, Wang, and the aging Pettitte. If any of the starters miss significant time, it will be up to guys like Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to live up to the expectations placed upon them.

Mariano Rivera is back as the closer, and he'll have a decent support staff even if JOba remains in the starting rotation.

Damaso Marte may be the only recognizable setup man, but he's not the only capable reliever the Yanks carry. Brian Bruney posted a 1.83 ERA in 2008, and Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez each came in under 4.00.

Boston Red Sox

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. J.D. Drew, RF
7. Jason Bay, LF
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Julio Lugo/Jed Lowrie, SS

Rotation

Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Tim Wakefield
Brad Penny
John Smoltz
Justin Masterson
David Pauley

It was addition by subtraction in 2008 for Boston, as they traded a disgruntled Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay and still made the Playoffs. This year, they'll see if that formula can carry them through an entire season. Early indications show that it can.

The Red Sox are strong (and virtually interchangeable) from lineup spots one through seven, but the last two places are question marks. Jason Varitek was re-signed by Boston for lack of a better option, but he'll need to hit much better than he did last year to keep his starting job. At shortstop, Jed Lowrie has essentially won the position by default after Julio Lugo injured his knee.

Josh Bard is back for his second try as Tim Wakefield's personal catcher. Bard was booed out of town last time, while his team captain remained surprisingly silent over Bard's knuckleball-handling troubles. If Bard can hit like he has over the past few years, he may just take the everyday job from Varitek.

In the outfield, Rocco Baldelli was added as a backup and spot starter. Mark Kotsay and Brad Wilkerson are also on the roster, but they may see more time at first base than in the outfield.

That leaves the infield, where depth was already an issue before the loss of Lugo (and before Pedroia was pulled from the WBC). It appears that a utility spot is up for grabs among a handful of non-roster invitees, including journeyman Nick Green.

Tampa Bay Rays

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup

1. Akinori Iwamura, 2B
2. Carl Crawford, LF
3. B.J. Upton, CF
4. Carlos Pena, 1B
5. Evan Longoria, 3B
6. Pat Burrell, DH
7. Dioner Navarro, C
8. Gabe Gross, RF
9. Jason Bartlett, SS

Rotation

Jamie Shields
Scott Kazmir
Matt Garza
Andy Sonnanstine
David Price
Mitch Talbot
Jeff Niemman
Jason Hammel

Yes, Baseball Prospectus expects the Rays to finish in third place in the East in 2009. But that doesn't mean their 2008 success was a fluke. The team is due for some regression, but BP still predicts them to win a whopping 95 games and finish just one game behind the wild card-winning Red Sox.

Part of the reason is that a majority of their core is still intact. Two revolving-door players in right field, Eric Hinske and Rocco Baldelli, are gone, but Gabe Gross is back. In addition, Gross will be challenged by young outfielder Matt Joyce, who was practically stolen from the Tigers in exchange for Edwin Jackson.

Speaking of steals, Tampa Bay also got a steal of a deal in picking up Pat Burrell on the cheap.

This lineup may not have the name recognition of New York's, but Baseball Prospectus actually predicts the Rays to outscore the Yankees this year. I wouldn't be surprisde if they gave Boston a run for their offensive money as well.

In addition to Matt Joyce, the Rays also have Gabe Kapler as an outfield option off the bench. Willy Aybar returns as the club's utility infielder, and Morgan Ensberg and Adam Kennedy will also battle for backup infield spots.

Last year, the Rays had the luxury of having too many capable starting pitchers. This year is no different.

Even after trading away Edwin Jackson, Tampa Bay still has to decide whether they want to move David Price to the rotation or keep him in the bullpen. Price, Baseball America's No. 2 overall prospect this year, was lights-out in last year's ALCS, earning an extended save in the game that sent Tampa Bay to the World Series.

Of course, the nice thing about the Price decision is that Tampa Bay also has a glut of talent in the bullpen. Troy Percival is back as the club's closer, aided by Chad Bradford, Dan Wheeler, JP Howell, Grant Balfour, and Brian Shouse. Former Cardinals closer Jason Isringhausen will also compete for a spot.

Baltimore Orioles

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup

1. Brian Roberts, 2B
2. Melvin Mora, 3B
3. Nick Markakis, RF
4. Aubrey Huff, 1B
5. Adam Jones, CF
6. Luke Scott, DH
7. Greg Zaun/Matt Wieters, C
8. Cesar Izturis, SS
9. Felix Pie, LF

Rotation

Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill
Adam Eaton
Danys Baez
Hayden Penn
David Pauley
Radhames Liz
Bradley Bergensen
Chris Waters
Dennis Sarfate
Brian Bass
Matt Albers

Baltimore's offense showed good improvement in 2008, and it should continue in '09.

The lineup starts off with solid professional hitters in Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora. Next come three unheralded stars in Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, and Adam Jones, all of whom outperformed their 2008 expectations.

Markakis became a legitimate star in 2008. Huff had always been a good hitter, but he was just phenomenal towards the end of last year. And who would have guessed that Seattle would regret trading a then-unpolished Adam Jones for Cy Young candidate Erik Bedard?

The bottom of the Orioles lineup still has questions, but one of them will be answered as soon as Matt Wieters makes his MLB debut. Baseball America considers Wieters the top prospect in all of baseball, and he's a great hitter regardless of position. He's enough to make this author regret joining an NL-only fantasy league this summer.

The Orioles have some recognizable and versatile veterans fighting for backup spots. Chris Gomez can play four positions (the four infield spots), Ryan Freel and Ty Wigginton can play five each (2B, 3B, LF, and RF for both; and CF for Freel, and 1B for Wigginton), and Jolbert Cabrera a staggering seven (everywhere except pitcher and catcher).

It's easy to say that Baltimore's starting pitching is its weak spot. An example that illustrates that perfectly: Up for a spot in the rotation is Danys Baez, who hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2007 and hasn't started since 2002.

If there's one good thing about Baltimore's pitching staff, it's that their bullpen seems to produce All-Star closers year after year. This season's edition still has current closer George Sherrill and former closer Chris Ray. Also providing relief for the Orioles are veterans Jamie Walker and Mark Hendrickson.

Toronto Blue Jays

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup

1. Aaron Hill/Joe Inglett, 2B
2. Adam Lind, LF
3. Alex Rios, RF
4. Vernon Wells, CF
5. Scott Rolen, 3B
6. Travis Snider, DH
7. Lyle Overbay, 1B
8. Rod Barajas, C
9. John McDonald/Marco Scutaro, SS

Rotation

Roy Halladay
Jesse Litsch
David Pursey
Casey Janssen
Scott Richmond
Matt Clement
Brett Cecil
Shaun Marcum
Dustin McGowan

I'm beginning with Toronto's starting pitching, because their rotation was arguably the best in the game in 2008 (despite widespread ignorance of this fact).

Unfortunately, they lost A.J. Burnett to free agency, and Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan begin the year injured. Marcum and McGowan were two big reasons for the rotation's success in 2008, and the Blue Jays will have trouble filling their spots. After all, they can only ride ace Roy Halladay so much, no matter how good he is.

One of the contenders for a rotation spot is Matt Clement, a poor man's Mark Prior who went from dominating Cubs starter to disabled has-been in less than a year.

Closing for Toronto is one of Baltimore's former stoppers, B.J. Ryan. Notable relievers include Jason Frasor, Jeremy Accardo, and swingman Brian Tallet. Matt Bush, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2004 draft as a shortstop by the Padres, will try to resurrect his career and make the roster as a relief pitcher.

As hard as it is for Toronto fans to think "what if" if their 2008 rotation was still intact, it's even harder when you see the pieces added to their batting order.

Sure, none of their middle infielders are much with the bat. But add Travis Snider to a lineup in which Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and Scott Rolen play at least 150 games, and you've a force to be reckoned with.

Of course, all three outfielders—Rios, Wells, and Adam Lind, have struggled to live up to unfair expectations. But even if they just ignore the critics and do what they're capable of doing, this lineup can win some ballgames.

Toronto is obviously deep when it comes to defensive middle infielders, as witnessed by the options in the starting lineup. They also have some choices on the corners, with Jose Bautista and Kevin Millar coming off the bench.

In addition, both Michael Barrett and Raul Chavez are more than capable as backup catchers. The depth problem comes in the outfield, where Travis Snider may have to play on days when Millar or even Lind DH.

National League East Preview

Kanka — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 16:55:00 -0400

New York Mets

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Luis Castillo 2B
Jose Reyes SS
David Wright 3B
Carlos Beltran CF
Carlos Delgado 1B
Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis LF
Ryan Church RF
Brian Schneider C

Rotation
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Freddy Garcia
Tim Redding
Livan Hernandez
Jon Niese
Nelson Figueroa
Brandon Knight

The Mets lineup didn't change much from last year, but then again ,it really didn't need to. Reyes, Wright, and Beltran are stars, and the rest are good to great complimentary players (despite what locals think about Luis Castillo).

Reyes and Castillo are about equal at getting on base, and if New York drops Reyes to second, it will be able to better take advantage of his power, especially compared to the punchless Castillo.

In addition to Murphy, Church, and Tatis likely sharing time in the outfield, the Mets have even more talented outfielders in Marlon Anderson and Jeremy Reed. On the infield, Alex Cora is a proven utility man and a capable emergency starter. Once again, Ramon Castro will relieve Schneider at catcher.

New York's starting rotation may be a bit short on household names, but it's not short on talent. Of course, top starters Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey have had their bumps and bruises, so that's something Mets fans will want to keep their eye on.

The much maligned New York bullpen should be helped by the move to Citi Field. Despite early reports that balls flew out of the new stadium, it is located just across the street from Shea and has bigger dimensions, so it should favor pitchers even more so than the original Mets home.

The Mets now have an embarrassment of riches in the bullpen after acquiring Francisco Rodriguez as their new closer and JJ Putz as K-Rod's top setup man. Putz had a tough 2008 due to injuries, but had he not been traded to the Mets, he likely would have been an elite closer again this year.

Rodriguez, Putz, Duaner Sanchez, and Pedro Feliciano should help the Mets avoid late game (and late season) collapses this year.

Philadelphia Phillies

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Raul Ibanez LF
Jayson Werth RF
Pedro Feliz 3B
Carlos Ruiz C

Rotation
Cole Hamels
Brett Myers
Jamie Moyer
Joe Blanton
JA Happ
Chan Ho Park
Kyle Kendrick
Carlos Carrasco

Well, it's hard to find fault in a team that won the World Series last year. Losing Pat Burrell in favor of Raul Ibanez was more of a downgrade that most people realize. But with the rest of Philadelphia's lineup, that shouldn't be an issue.

Like all good teams, the Phillies relied on key backups taking over if and when a starter faltered. Unfortunately for Philadelphia's opponents, that backup corps is as strong as ever.

Geoff Jenkins lost his starting job to Jayson Werth last year, and this year, he'll be Werth's backup. Greg Dobbs will once again back up the corner infield spots, with Eric Bruntlett up the middle.

Catcher was a weak spot for the Phillies in 2008 after Carlos Ruiz struggled at the plate. But in addition to Ruiz and Chris Coste, the Phillies also picked up Ronny Paulino from in-state rival Pittsburgh. But all three catchers are probably just keeping the seat warm until prospect Lou Marson is ready.

Philadelphia's fifth starter spot is still up for grabs. But you know you're in good shape when that's the only question your starting rotation has. Myers, Moyer, and Blanton aren't elite pitchers, but staff ace Cole Hamels certainly is.

The bad news is that Brad Lidge probably won't convert all of his save opportunities this year, like he did in 2008. The good news is that Lidge is back as one of the best closers in the game. The even better news is that Lidge also has a strong support staff, led by Ryan Madson, JC Romero, Chad Durbin, and Scott Eyre.

Atlanta Braves

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Yunel Escobar SS
Kelly Johnson 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Brian McCann C
Garret Anderson/Matt Diaz LF
Casey Kotchman 1B
Jeff Francoeur RF
Josh Anderson CF

Rotation
Derek Lowe
Javier Vazquez
Jair Jurrjens
Kenshin Kawakami
Jorge Campillo
Tom Glavine
Jo-Jo Reyes
Tommy Hanson
Charlie Morton
James Parr
Jeff Bennett

I'll be honest. I have no idea how this lineup will shake out. On top of not knowing who will bat where, there are also questions of who will actually be playing at any given time.

Garret Anderson may not hold up for a full 162 games. Josh Anderson is only holding onto his spot until top prospect Jordan Schafer is ready for the bigs. Jeff Francouer had enough trouble holding his starting spot last year, and questions remain this year. And that's just the outfield.

Fortunately, the Braves do have some decent backups. Matt Diaz was last year's starter in left field, and he'll likely see decent playing time on both corners this year. Gregor Blanco filled in for Francouer last year, and could do it again this year.

On the infield, Martin Prado put up good offensive numbers last year, and warrants playing time this year when he gets a chance. Of course, he'll also have to compete with proven infielder Omar Infante for the utility role.

As always, the Braves have put together a solid rotation. Tim Hudson is out with an arm injury, but in his stead, the Braves have acquired two very good starters—Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez.

Jair Jurrjens was a darkhorse rookie of the year candidate last year, and this year he returns as a capable number three starter. The Braves also have some decent pieces to fill the last few rotation spots, including Jo-Jo Reyes, Ken Kawakami, and a swan song from Tom Glavine.

The Braves may be headed for another third place finish in their division, but don't fault the rotation for them not finishing any higher.

The Atlanta bullpen may seem like a group of castoffs, but there is some decent talent there. Former Pirates closer Mike Gonzalez now assumes that role with the Braves. He'll be aided by Rafael Soriano, Manny Acosta, Boone Logan, and Buddy Carlyle.

Washington Nationals

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Christian Guzman SS
Elijah Dukes RF
Ryan Zimmerman 3B
Adam Dunn 1B
Lastings Milledge CF
Josh Willingham LF
Jesus Flores C
Anderson Hernandez 2B

Rotation
John Lannan
Scott Olsen
Daniel Cabrera
Shawn Hill
Jordan Zimmermann
Collin Balester
Shairon Martis
Jason Bergmann
Matt Chico
Garrett Mock
Tyler Clippard

The Nationals are an organization looking for respect. While their record in 2009 might not win them any, they have pieced together a respectable lineup and a respectable bench.

New to the DC are are Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham, two players who won't hit for a high average, but who will get on base and hit for power. They, along with previous acquisitions Christian Guzman, Elijah Dukes, and Lastings Milledge, will help compliment Washington's star-in-training Ryan Zimmerman.

And while the previously light-hitting Guzman probably won't match the batting numbers he reached in 2008, one of those other starters just might.

Like the Nationals lineup, the bench is full of recognizable names. While they may be castoffs from other organizations, they're also proven Major Leaguers, and many of them former starters.

Nick Johnson will try to stay healthy and fight for playing time. Ronnie Belliard and Kory Casto will back up the infield, and former Nationals starters Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena will do the same in the outfield. Kearns, Pena, and Dunn—reunited from their time in Cincinnati—will give this team some pop.

Over the past few years, the Nationals have had no trouble acquiring players with character issues, alleged or otherwise. This year is no different as they add starter Scott Olsen from the Marlins.

If players can Olsen and Elijah Dukes can contain their emotions, they will make the Nationals a better team.If instead, they feed off of each other's negativity, then I pit manager Manny Acta.

But outside of Scott Olsen and John Lannan, Washington is full of question marks in the starting rotation, none bigger than enigma Dnaiel Cabrera, who on any given night could strike out 15 and walk just as many.

The Nationals bullpen is highlighted by Team Canada member Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan has a thin bullpen behind him, composed primarily of fringe starters like Garrett Mock and Tyler Clippard.

Florida Marlins

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Hanley Ramirez SS
Jeremy Hermida RF/LF
Jorge Cantu 3B
Dan Uggla 2B
Gaby Sanchez 1B
Cody Ross LF/RF
John Baker C
Cameron Maybin CF

Rotation
Ricky Nolasco
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
Anibal Sanchez
Andrew Miller
Dan Meyer
Burke Badenhop
Ryan Tucker
Rick VandenHurk

Like the Braves, and even more so, I'm not sure how the Marlins lineup will look in 2009. If Cameron Maybin can stick in the leadoff spot, Florida will benefit from moving Hanley Ramirez to the three hole. But until then, the Fish will benefit from hitting Ramirez first, effectively giving their best player as many at bats as possible.

Like Washington's, Florida's lineup delivers some pop with Ramirez, Cantu, and Uggla, but it also has many question marks. Still, the Marlins have the ability to make games exciting.

Florida does have some capable backups, primarily on the infield corners. Both Wes Helms and former Angels super-prospect Dallas McPherson can play both third and first base. Alfredo Amezaga, meanwhile, can play anywhere on the diamond.

The Marlins rotation has some young talent that may still be a year or two away from being good. Ricky Nolasco wins the top rotation spot by default, more or less. Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller will be good, but may not be Major League good yet.

Anibal Sanchez has an MLB no hitter under his belt, but has been relatively silent outside of that one game. Dan Meyer was once thought to be one of the next big Oakland pitching prospects. Now he's just fighting for the fifth starter spot on a bad team.

Matt Lindstrom has been named Florida's closer after converting five of six opportunities in 2008. He'll be supported by Leo Nunez, Logan Kensing, and Taylor Tankersly, as well as Scott Proctor. Proctor was an interesting acquisition, as talented veteran middle relievers are often not a priority on a team like this.

American League West Preview

Kanka — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 16:53:00 -0500

Los Angeles Angels

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Chone Figgins 3B
Bobby Abreu LF
Kendry Morales 1B
Vlad Guerrero RF
Mike Napoli C
Juan Rivera DH
Torii Hunter CF
Howie Kendrick 2B
Erick Aybar SS

Rotation
John Lackey
Ervin Santana
Joe Saunders
Jered Weaver
Dustin Moseley
Nick Adenhart
Shane Loux
Anthony Ortega

As usual, the Angels lineup won't blow anyone away on paper. But once again, it's a solid collection of players that will win quite a few games.

With the loss of Mark Teixeira, Kendry Morales will be asked to step in at first base. The Cuban refugee's development has been slower than expected, so it will be interesting to see if he's finally ready for a full time spot in the majors.

The other addition for the Angels is Bobby Abreu. Abreu's defense may have worsened over the years, but he's still phenomenal at getting on base, and 20 home runs will be a good complement to what power players like Guerrero, Napoli, and Rivera bring to the table.

The Angels have always had a deep bench under Mike Sciocia, and this year is no different. Gary Matthews, Jr. and Reggie Willits can fill in at all three outfield spots. Macier Izturis will once again be the utility infielder. Rob Quinlan will backup both corner spots in the infield, and may find himself a starter if Morales falters again.

Meanwhile, Brandon Wood, LA's "other" shortstop prospect (after Erick Aybar), will try to find playing time at third and short. And Jeff Mathis should see decent playing time at catcher when Mike Napoli is called on to DH, or when Napoli simply needs a day off.

Ervin Santana looked like a bust in 2007. But he bounced back strong in 2008, giving Los Angeles their second legitimate ace with John Lackey. As I've mentioned before, having two aces is important to playoff success.

Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver would probably be No. 2 starters on some team, but in this deep rotation, they slide down to the third and fourth spots. The final rotation slot appears open to competition. After a rough introduction to the majors in 2008, top prospect Nick Adenhart will try to bounce back to take that spot in 2009.

In addition to a deep bench, the Angels have always had a deep bullpen. Gone is Francisco Rodriguez, but LA was quick to replace him with Brian Fuentes. Fuentes has an excellent veteran support staff in Scot Shields, Justin Speier, and Darren Oliver. However, at 34, Shields is the youngest of that group, so durability may be an issue.

Oakland Athletics

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Mark Ellis 2B
Bobby Crosby SS
Matt Holliday LF
Jason Giambi 1B
Jack Cust DH
Eric Chavez 3B
Kurt Suzuki C
Travis Buck RF
Ryan Sweeney CF

Rotation
Justin Duchscherer
Dana Eveland
Sean Gallagher
Dallas Braden
Gio Gonzalez
Josh Outman

Oakland's offense took two huge steps forward with the trade for Matt Holliday and the free agent signing of Jason Giambi. Holliday, Giambi, and Jack Cust are Billy Beane's dream players players that are on-base machines and hit for power. The questions come from the rest of the lineup.

Eric Chavez is a great player when healthy, but that "IF" gets larger and larger every year. Kurt Suzuki and Travis Buck are good on-base guys, but Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, and Travis Buck struggle at it. In Ellis's defense, at least, he's probably the best fielding second baseman in the game.

The bench features some no-names that began 2008 as starters, and would be again this year if not for the return of Chavez and the acquisitions of Holliday and Giambi. They are Darric Barton, Jack Hannahan, Rajai Davis, and former Cubs farmhand Eric Patterson.

The A's have always found a way to grow pitching talent, trade it away, then replace it with more talent. That needs to be the case again this year, after they traded away both Rich Harden and Joe Blanton during the 2008 season.

The player to watch is Gio Gonzalez, a former first round draft pick who has been traded three times in five professional seasons.

Oakland traded closer Huston Street to get Matt Holliday. Brad Ziegler ended the year as Oakland's closer, but this year, he will relinquish that role to Joey Devine. Devine will be supported by Ziegler and Russ Springer.

Texas Rangers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ian Kinsler 2B
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton CF
Nelson Cruz RF
Hank Blalock DH
David Murphy LF
Chris Davis 1B
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Elvis Andrus SS

Rotation
Kevin Millwood
Vincente Padilla
Scott Feldman
Matt Harrison
Brandom McCarthy
Dustin Nippert
Jason Jennings
Kason Gabbard
Luis Mendoza
Eric Hurley
Tommy Hunter
Warner Madrigal

The masthead on the Rangers website says they are "Built for Fun." That's an apt description, but perhaps a bit of a backhanded compliment. Texas has retooled its batting order, but again, has done little with its pitching.

New to the lineup this year is Nelson Cruz, who at 28 last year, wasn't considered a prospect, but who absolutely obliterated AAA pitching. Also new to the lineup is the organization's No. 1 prospect, Elvis Andrus, who will move Gold Glove shortstop Mike Young to third base. Third base was vacated by Hank Blalock due to injury issues. Blalock will take over the DH spot this year.

Texas went into the offseason with four MLB-ready catchers, but after trading Gerald Laird, they are left with three. All three are solid players, but each comes with the smallest of asterisks.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who looks to win the starting role, has always been an offense-first catcher, but now his offense looks a little suspect.

Taylor Teagarden, conversely, may be the best defensive catcher this organization has seen since Ivan Rodriguez, but only recently has his hitting been considered up to the task.

And Max Ramirez tore up the low minors, but was always a little old for his class.

The Texas bench also features Frank Catalanotto, who now looks to be a super sub, and Omar Vizquel, brought in to mentor Andrus.

As mentioned above, little was done to improve the Rangers' rotation. Like the last few years, it's Millwood, Padilla, and a bunch of question marks.

Frank Francisco has been promoted to closer after several years as a setup man for the Rangers. He'll be supported by a bevy of experienced bullpen arms, including CJ Wilson, Eddie Guardado, Brendan Donnelly, and Derrick Turnbow.

Seattle Mariners

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ichiro Suzuki RF
Jose Lopez/Ronny Cedeno 2B
Ken Griffey, Jr DH
Adrian Beltre 3B
Russell Branyan 1B
Kenji Johjima/Jeff Clement C
Endy Chavez/Waldimir Balentien LF
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Yuniesky Betancourt SS

Rotation
Felix Hernandez
Erik Bedard
Brandon Morrow
Carlos Silva
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Jarrod Washburn
Garrett Olson

The Mariners had a stunning fall from grace in 2008, but perhaps we should have seen it coming with an aging lineup and questions in the rotation. The lineup has been retooled with a combination of defense, youth, and power.

The defense comes from Ichiro and new acquisitions Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez. Individually each could claim the title as best center fielder (or best outfielder) in the game. Together, they'll help save quite a few hits for Mariners pitching, even if (in Gutierrez and Chavez' cases) they aren't offensive powerhouses.

The youth comes in the form of Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement. Both are known as plus bats and minus defenders. Some have suggested a combined Johjima/Clement and Chavez/Balentien platoon, wherein one day the poor hitting/good defensive catcher would play with the good hitting/poor fielding outfielder, and vice-versa, to offset all four players' deficiencies.

The power comes from scrap heap acquisition Russell Branyan and what the Seattle front office hopes to be the triumphant return of Ken Griffey Jr.

Seattle's rotation should improve significantly with the health of Erik Bedard. The continued development of Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith will help as well. Jarrod Washburn was 5-14 last year, but with an ERA under five, that record may have just been the result of being an unlucky player on a bad team.

After trading away JJ Putz, Seattle's closer position is still up for grabs. Among the contenders are Mark Lowe, Miguel Batista, Tyler Walker, David Aardsma, and Roy Corcoran. Lorain County's Ryan Feierabend was expected to be this year's long reliever. But unfortunately, he has been lost for the season with an elbow injury.

Cleveland Indians: WBC Rosters and Baseball America Top 100 Announced

Kanka — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 21:38:00 -0500

What a day—especially if you're a prospect nerd. On the same day the Indians held their first intrasquad game, the final World Baseball Classic rosters were announced, AND Baseball America released their top 100 prospects for 2009.

The Indians were represented well on both lists. The WBC will feature:

Grady Sizemore and Mark DeRosa on Team USA
Shin-Soo Choo playing for Korea
Rafael Perez pitching for the Dominican Republic
Prospects Damaso and Paolo Espino on the Panamanian team
Chen Lee and Sung-Wei Tseng wearing the uniforms of Chinese Taipei
Up-and-comer Nick Weglarz once again representing Team Canada

The US is only carrying four true outfielders, so I wouldn't be surprised if DeRosa saw some time in the outfield as well.

On Baseball America's list, Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta checked in consecutively at 26th and 27th. The aforementioned Nick Weglarz is 58th. And Adam Miller was 82nd. BA expects LaPorta and Miller to make their MLB debuts this year, with Santana and Weglarz hitting The Show in 2010.