Bleacher Report - Articles by Jonathan Slotter

NFL Week Five Power Rankings: Mardi Gras In October?

Jonathan Slotter — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 10:16:41 -0400

Team who gained the most spots: Jacksonville, jumping from 23 to 17th.

Team who fell the most spots: a three way tie between the Chargers, Cowboys, and Bills who all fell five spots.

Game I can’t wait to see next week: Bengals Ravens. The Bengals could make a serious statement if they pull this one off, but even if they keep it close it gives them confidence. A very watchable game is the Cards-Texans, just like some Big XII football.

1. (1) New York Giants—Dominated most of the game against the Chiefs. Steve Smith has really turned into a top, consistent receiver in the league. The defense got constant pressure as Cassel completed under 50 percent of his passes.

2. (7) New Orleans Saints—Defense really took it to the Jets while the offense was missing for most of the game. Defense coming up big though has to be comforting as the Saints are becoming more and more of a force.

3. (5) Indianapolis Colts—Dominated the Seahawks from start to finish. Peyton Manning and Co. continue to tear defenses to shreds. The defense is also playing up to par. When both are clicking they could be the best team in the NFL.

4. (6) New England Patriots—The Patriots look like the Pats of old. Wes Welker made Brady’s life much easier, throwing for 258 yards. The running game was enough and the defense did what it had to do to win.

5. (4) Minnesota Vikings—Played a great game against a good Packers team. Defensive line was outstanding, Favre had his best game in years, and wasn’t asked to do much. This play calling looks like a recipe for success.

6. (3) Baltimore Ravens—Not to be outdone by Tom Brady, Flacco had himself a game, throwing for 264 yards. Ray Rice also put in over 100 yards. They played a tough game but just didn’t have enough at the end. If the game is in Baltimore the game might be different. The defense though has to help out Flacco and Co.

7. (2) New York Jets—Mark Sanchez finally looked like a rookie, but the defense also made Drew Brees look human also. Under 200 yards and no offense. If Sanchez doesn’t make those mistakes the game is much closer. The Jets are still a team to be feared.

8. (9) Philadelphia Eagles—What better schedule could you have over the next three weeks? Bucs, Raiders, Redskins. Someone should pick up the Eagles defense quickly.

9. (8) Atlanta Falcons—Look to rebound after the bye week from the Patriots defeat. 49ers will be stingy and Ryan needs to find Gonzales.

10. (10) Chicago Bears—After keeping the Lions in the game for the first half, the defense allowed only three points in the second. Jay Cutler looked good, but Matt Forte stole the show with his 121 yards. The defense needs to play more like the second half though if they are going to compete in the loaded North.

11. (12) Cincinnati Bengals—The Bengals tried to give the Browns the game, but came out with the win in last second overtime fashion. Palmer continued to look good and Cedric Benson has continued to be a nice surprise. The defense can’t fall asleep in the second half of games though. However, a win is a win.

12. (15) Denver Broncos—A big statement game for the Broncos showing everyone they are a legit 4-0 team. I’m not quite sold but the next two weeks should tell us more (Pats and Chargers).

13. (13) San Francisco 49ers—No Gore, no problem. Blitz the Rams 35-0 and continue to play solid, disciplined football under Mike Singletary. Beating the Falcons will go a long way in gaining respect in the league and beating a team outside of the NFC West.

14. (17) Pittsburgh Steelers—After bolting out of the gate against the Chargers, Pittsburgh fell asleep in the fourth quarter and that has to be concerning. Rashad Mendenhall provides a huge spark and just what the Steelers run game needs.

15. (16) Green Bay Packers—Despite getting beaten they looked good, despite the offensive lines struggles. Aaron Rogers is a warrior. The running game needs to pick it up though.

16. (11) San Diego Chargers—After not realizing they had a game until about two minutes left in the third, in typical Charger fashion, had a great fourth quarter but came up short. With the emergence of the Broncos the Chargers will actually have a race this year so they better wake up soon.

17. (23) Jacksonville Jaguars—After the Cardinals disaster the Jags have come out on fire the last few weeks. Could be a dark horse in the AFC South and David Garrard has played excellent in both games. However the defense and MJD are the key for a successful season.

18. (21) Houston Texans—Another good game for Matt Schaub, and also exercising some demons after the Raiders ruined their possibility for finishing with a winning record for first time in franchise history. Next games against the Cardinals and Bengals should tell us how good the defense is.

19. (14) Dallas Cowboys—What can we say about the Cowboys? The offense can’t score, the running game is non existent and the defense made Kyle Orton look pretty good. Lucky for the Cowboys the Chiefs are up next.

20. (20) Arizona Cardinals—Can the Cardinals win a home game? Next week against the Texans is a must win and getting pressure on the QB is a must.

21. (24) Miami Dolphins—Housing the Bills 38-10 is just what the Dolphins and Henne needed. Ronnie Brown looked good and so did the defense. After the Colts game the Dolphins deserved this game.

22. (25) Carolina Panthers—Looking to get their season on track, maybe an early bye week will be good for them to get them started.

23. (18) Seattle Seahawks—The Seahawks looked like last years Seahawks as the defense failed to get it done. The Colts got 431 yards of offense. Wallace had an efficient game but the running game really has to get started if the Seahawks want to contend in the West.

24. (19) Buffalo Bills—The Bills looked awful and that Patriots game is still looking more and more like a mirage. Owens ended his games without a catch at one. And the Dolphins ran 24 more plays than the Bills.

25. (26) Detroit Lions—The Lions played like well the Lions. Good in the first half bad in the second. Stafford to Johnson is becoming a routine, but they were both banged up at the end of the game which could be a concern. The running game has to come back if they are wanting to win more games. And the defense has to, well, get in someone’s way, at the very least.

26. (30) Washington Redskins—Get a must win against the Bucs. Zorn is safe for another week. Portis getting more touches has to be a good sign as it will make things easier for Campbell to get the ball to his receivers and Cooley.

27. (22) Tennessee Titans—In a must win game they come out flat. The Titans could start for 0-6 as the next two opponents (Colts and Patriots) don’t make it any easier. Jeff Fisher has his hands full.

28. (27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers—They tried so hard to end Zorn’s tenure, but couldn’t quite get it done. Josh Johnson provides some interesting looks for the Bucs offense. I don’t think they will be favored in any game the rest of the year.

29. (28) Oakland Raiders—The Raiders are, well, the Raiders. They need a new quarterback, a running game, a defense, and some receivers. They battle the Chiefs in the AFC west basement.

30. (30) Kansas City Chiefs—The Chiefs were over-matched, but they continued to fight and play hard. Got some points whenever backup David Carr came up into the game. Larry Johnson getting back into the game is also big for the Chiefs. He can provide life to the offense.

31. (32) Cleveland Browns—The Browns played much better than last week and came up with just a little short of stopping themselves from getting 16 losses. Derek Anderson played decent and Jerome Harrison had a huge day rushing for over 140 yards. Perhaps this will give them a chance for the rest of the season.

32. (31) St. Louis Rams—As soon as they get out of the 32 spot, they want right back. They hardly showed up against the 49ers, but what can you expect with Kyle Boller as QB. The defense allowing a Gore-less Niners 35 points though is inexplicable.

Week Three Power Rankings: Purple Reign

Jonathan Slotter — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 10:16:15 -0400

Team who gained the most spots: Cincinnati Bengals—jumped from 21 to 12.

Team who lost the most spots: Pittsburgh Steelers—fell from 6 to 17.

Team who I have yet to figure out: The Arizona Cardinals—lost two home games and looked bad; went to the East Coast at a functional 10 o'clock in the morning start and looked great.

Game I can’t wait for next week: Green Bay-Minnesota. Need I say more? I’m always up for a little Brett Favre revenge, as in Green Bay getting revenge.

1. (1) New York Giants

Giants take it to the lowly Buccaneers. Defense held the Bucs to five first downs and only 86 total yards. Won’t get another true test for their defense until week six against the Saints. 226 rushing yards will help out Eli Manning as well.

2. (2) New York Jets

Jets played a tough game against a feisty, desperate Titans team. Despite a second quarter where they only gained three total yards, defense played well enough to keep them in it. Held Kerry Collins to 15-of-37 passing. Mark Sanchez continues to shine.

3. (8) Baltimore Ravens

Beat down a Browns team who has no identity or continuity. It didn’t matter who played QB; they intercepted both of them. Holding the Browns to 186 yards a game, but next week should show people who they really are, traveling to the Patriots, who looked good.

4. (3) Minnesota Vikings

A good win for the Vikings and their worries about Brett Favre. Throwing 46 times and only rushing Adrian Peterson 19 times is concerning. Sticking to their game plan would have helped a lot in this game. Defense held the 49ers in check. No Frank Gore did help.

5. (7) Indianapolis Colts

Colts took it to the Cardinals, racking up 505 yards of offense and forcing two red zone turnovers. Peyton Manning was near perfect, and both Joseph Addai and Donald Brown looked solid. Look to do more of the same against the Seahawks.

6. (9) New England Patriots

Back to the Patriots of old it appears, racking up 445 yards of offense and shutting down a solid Falcon team. Tom Brady looked back on track, and this is the exact momentum they needed going into the Ravens game. Wes Welker needs to come back, and Randy Moss looked excellent.

7. (5) New Orleans Saints

Despite the score, didn’t pummel the Bills. Drew Brees had a modest 172 yards, but Pierre Thomas had 126 on the ground. Reggie Bush also chimed in with 60. If the running game gets going, they won't be stopped.

8. (4) Atlanta Falcons

Falcons looked like they could do nothing against the Patriots. There seems to be a theme: Shut down Tony Gonzalez, and you shut down the Falcons offense. Because the game got away from them in the second half, Michael Turner only got 15 carries. Need to give him the ball more in the future, however. 49ers, Bears, and Cowboys should tell us whether this team was a fluke or not.

9. (10) Philadelphia Eagles

Good news: Kevin Kolb looked good, but it was, of course, the Chiefs. Donovan McNabb should be back after the bye week, and we will see if they can live up to expectations. Also, we will see how they work Michael Vick into the contest.

10. (11) Chicago Bears

It's all okay in Chicago after Jay Cutler again makes magic with a 38-yard TD pass to Devin Hester to win the game. The defense did what it had to do to win the game. After the Lions next week, the game against the Falcons should be a classic.

11. (12) San Diego Chargers

Not a convincing win against Miami, but still better than how they usually start. Philip Rivers made some amazing throws. However, better red zone scoring is needed. Need to average more than 2.5 yards a carry if they want to go to a Super Bowl.

12. (21) Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals never cease to amaze me. After what seemed to be a season filled with turmoil and bad luck, they have turned it around in their favor. Carson Palmer looks to be back in form, the defense is doing enough, and Cedric Benson seems to have revitalized his career. Browns and Ravens up next means they could make some nice headway in the AFC North.

13. (13) San Francisco 49ers

A tough loss for the Niners, but the biggest lost might have been Frank Gore. Backup Glen Coffee only averaged 2.2 yards per carry, although the Vikings have a good rush defense. Good signs from Vernon Davis, but you have to be worried about Shaun Hill trying to win you games.

14. (14) Dallas Cowboys

Struggled mightily against the Panthers until Jake Delhomme realized he was Jake Delhomme. Play calling was horrendous as multiple goal line situations were blown. Felix Jones looked excellent until he got hurt.

15. (23) Denver Broncos

The Broncos dominated the Raiders in every aspect of the game. Only 137 total yards, 42 of those passing. Kyle Orton didn’t make any mistakes against a solid defense. Clearly the most surprising 3-0 team, but with the Cowboys, Patriots, and Chargers next, this could change quickly.

16. (19) Green Bay Packers

Packers dominate a lesser opponent, which is exactly what you need after a loss like that to the Bengals. Aaron Rodgers only had to endure two sacks this weekend. Big game next week against Brett Favre and company.

17. (6) Pittsburgh Steelers

Could it get worse for the Steelers? Without Troy Polamalu they are struggling. They did find a running game though as Willie Parker had 93 yards. They did, however, have 100 more total yards than the Bengals. Next week against the Chargers won’t be easier.

18. (20) Seattle Seahawks

Lost a tough game to the Bears, but I have to question the play calling. Why are they throwing the ball 44 times? Defense has to step up if they want to compete. Colts, Jaguars, and Cards could be a tough stretch for them if Matt Hasselbeck isn’t back.

19. (18) Buffalo Bills

Kept it close with the Saints until the fourth quarter. Run defense was atrocious, but they held Drew Brees in check. TO needs to make plays as long as Marshawn “Money” Lynch is out. However, Fred Jackson has done an adequate job.

20. (17) Arizona Cardinals

Despite the score being 31-10, the game was much closer than it looked. Two red zone turnovers, one on a missed defensive holding call, and it was actually a game. Allowing 500 yards of offense needs to be fixed as the defensive line got no push. The bye week should serve them well.

21. (15) Houston Texans

Matt Schaub had another great game; however, the defense failed to show up. Allowing MJD to finally get going is fair, but allowing 214 yards to David Garrard is terrible. Next week is really a must win for the Texans if they want to live up to expectations.

22. (16) Tennessee Titans

The Titans can’t catch a break. A slow start on both sides of the ball had them doomed, losing all three of their games by seven points or less. It doesn’t get any easier with Jacksonville, the Colts, and the Patriots up next. Rough start for a good team.

23. (30) Jacksonville Jaguars

After getting rolled by the Cardinals, the Jaguars bounced back with a nice win. The offense finally got off the schnide, but the defense is going to need to play better because the offense can’t do that week in and week out.

24. (25) Miami Dolphins

Dolphins lose another close game to a good team. Chad Pennington is out for the season in what was perhaps the biggest loss of the day though. With Chad Henne at the helm, I would like to see the Wildcat brought to a whole new level. Maybe 25 plays a game. That would be fun.

25. (26) Carolina Panthers

Hung in there with the Cowboys in Dallas. Jake Delhomme has yet to get back on track. If the Panthers want any chance of winning, Steve Smith has to get the ball in his hands. Running game also needs to help out.

26. (31) Detroit Lions

The biggest, and only, win since 2007, the Lions playing hard finally held up for a whole game. The defense did what it had to win the game, and Matt Stafford took a lot of strides forward. Kevin Smith looked excellent and will need more of that to keep the pressure off of Stafford.

27. (27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Looked pitiful against the G-Men. Hopefully Josh Johnson can provide a spark at the QB position with his legs. Allowing 226 rushing yards is a problem. Maybe they can get their first win against the Redskins and make it a recurring theme.

28. (24) Oakland Raiders

Gave up 372 yards to the Kyle Orton-led Broncos. JaMarcus Russell still is making too many mistakes, and the defense is going to need to play better if the Raiders want any chance to win. Darren McFadden ran the ball well and needs more chances to shine.

29. (29) Kansas City Chiefs

Allowed Kevin Kolb 327 yards of passing, but Matt Cassel was good and didn’t make any mistakes despite the Chiefs' play. Larry Johnson needs to average more than two yards a carry to help him out though.

30. (22) Washington Redskins

Prediction: Jim Zorn will get fired this week. What can you say about the Redskins? They are in a downward spiral. It has to go back to play-calling; giving the ball to Clinton Portis only 12 times is unexplainable.

31. (32) St. Louis Rams

What else could go wrong for the Rams? Kyle Boller is their new starting quarterback, and they gave up 402 yards to the Packers. Steven Jackson did have 117 yards though, and they move out of our bottom spot. That’s good news.

32. (28) Cleveland Browns

What can you say about the Browns? They have outdone themselves once again. Brady Quinn looked bad, and Derek Anderson looked much worse. And only 23 carries for a team that has no consistent quarterback play. Have to question every level of the Browns organization on this one.

Seneca Wallace Should Have a Starting Job Somewhere

Jonathan Slotter — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 11:27:37 -0400

Matt Hasselbeck gets hurt and again and the Seattle Seahawks will call on Seneca Wallace to save the day.

The team has tried to make him a receiver for years, but he has resisted this idea. Some people might say that’s selfish, but I think he's right.

Wallace is the best backup quarterback in the league.

Now, there are some other solid back up quarterbacks that have done a good job—Billy Volek, Sage Rosenfels, even Todd Collins. But Seneca is better than any of these guys. Let's take a look at some stats:

Comp%/Yds/TD/INT/RTG

Wallace 58.8/2974/23/13/83.0

Volek 59.7/3515/26/14/84.9

Rosenfels 62.5/4156/30/29/81.2

Collins 56.7/4355/22/19/76.2

Now, someone might look at Volek and say he is arguably better. But, again, I will beg to differ.

A) Volek hasn’t taken a snap since 2007.

He had one good year in 2004, when he started 10 games for the Titans. Volek posted 2,486 yards, 18 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a QB rating of 87.1 that year.

But that was five years ago, can anyone really expect him to be the same?

B) Wallace has taken snaps in each of the past five years.

Last year, with a terrible offense, he posted 1,532 yards, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions in 10 games.

When he gets reps, he doesn’t make mistakes.

Also, he has the ability to scramble and improvise—something most teams lack at the quarterback position. Because of this, Wallace is clearly the best backup in the game.

Now, on to a more interesting argument.

I believe Wallace could start for more than 50 percent of teams in the NFL.

Obviously there are the untouchables—Brees, Brady, P. Manning, E. Manning, Warner, Rivers, Palmer, Cutler, Roethlisberger, and Rogers.

Let's look at the rest of the teams, however.

Atlanta—Matt Ryan: He wouldn’t start here.

Ryan is a fabulous player and had a QB rating of 87.1 last year. This year, it looks like it's going to be higher with the addition of Tony Gonzalez.

Baltimore—Joe Flacco: Now, I will get some grief here, but Wallace is BETTER than Flacco.

He has a career rating of 80.3, throws way too many interceptions, and doesn’t play well against good defenses. He is off to a decent start this year, but I would take Wallace over Flacco, despite Flacco’s upside.

Buffalo—Trent Edwards: He has a career 81.2 QB rating, but just 22 touchdowns compared to 19 interceptions.

Wallace makes less mistakes despite a lower completion percentage. His ability to scramble is also huge. I take Wallace over Edwards.

Carolina—Jake Delhomme: This really shouldn’t be an argument, but Delhomme actually does have good numbers.

In big games, he is truly awful though. Delhomme has thrown way too many interceptions of late and is 34 years old. Wallace would run that offense well. I take Wallace over Delhomme.

Cleveland—Brady Quinn: Both Quinn and Derek Anderson lack consistency and have terrible completion percentages. They throw too many interceptions despite some good numbers.

I would need more time for Quinn to make a fair judgment, but as of now, I take Wallace over either Quinn or Anderson.

Dallas—Tony Romo: After Sunday night's game, I would think Cowboys' fans would take Wallace over Romo despite his career 94.2 passer rating and 80 touchdowns to 49 interceptions.

Despite his failure in big games, I take Romo over Wallace.

Denver—Kyle Orton: Orton knows how to win, but lacks a big arm and throws too many interceptions.

He has yet to move the Broncos offense effectively and has a career 72.4 passer rating and 32 touchdowns to 27 interceptions. I take Wallace over Orton.

Detroit—Matthew Stafford: Now, I know nobody would fair well with the Lions, but the Seahawks were pretty bad on offense last year and Wallace did just fine.

Stafford needs more time in the NFL, but right now, I would take Wallace over Stafford.

Houston—Matt Schaub: He is a career 86.9 passer rating with 34 touchdowns and 26 interceptions. Despite his good rating, he is far too inconsistent, but does have flashes of brilliance (see the Titans game).

But consistency is the name of the game and so this is a coin flip. I would take Wallace, but I couldn’t blame people for going the other way.

Jacksonville—David Garrard: Garrard has a career 84.8 rating with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He makes good decisions, but is very inaccurate sometimes with only a 52 percent completion percentage.

In my eyes, Wallace is a better, more mobile version of Garrard. Thus, I take Wallace.

Kansas City—Matt Cassel: Moved from probably the best backup into a very tough situation in Kansas City. Last year, Cassel wowed everyone with his 89.4 passer rating and 21 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions.

This might be the system, but I think Cassel is a legit quarterback, and has a good coordinator to help him develop. I take Cassel over Wallace.

Miami—Chad Pennington: Could you imagine Wallace in the Wildcat Offense, considering he has played some receiver? How deadly!

This alone gives him an edge over Pennington. Wallace is a more athletic version of Pennington and brings much of his good decision-making, poise, and savvy. I take Wallace over Pennington.

Minnesota—Brett Favre: Because of Favre’s bad decision-making, I have to put him here and not as a lock. Despite that, he is a future Hall-of-Famer and brings lots of experience and wisdom to the Vikings.

If he continues managing the game like he has done, then I take Favre over Wallace. But if he ends up like the Favre of the second half of last year, I might have to change my mind.

NY Jets—Mark Sanchez: It looks like Rex Ryan picked the right man for the job—Sanchez has a 91.3 rating in his first two games

However, it is much too early to tell whether or not this can be sustained. Let this be an undecided based on inconclusive evidence.

Oakland—JaMarcus Russell: Now, this makes too much sense. Russell has a career 70.8 passer rating and has started off this year terribly.

He has 16 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, a terrible completion percentage, and is not accurate enough on his deep balls. Wallace would be perfect for this West Coast Offense.

San Francisco—Shaun Hill: Hill is 9-3 as a starter, doesn’t make mistakes, and is crafty.

Wallace is much of the same, but is better and more mobile. They have almost identical stats, but the mobility factor puts Wallace over the top. He is perfect for the West Coast.

Seattle—Matt Hasselbeck: He has all the accolades, experience, and a great stat line: 84.2 rating, 150 touchdowns to 96 interceptions.

But Hasselbeck is going to be 34 soon, he can’t stay healthy, and doesn’t have a strong arm. In my opinion, the Seahawks are better when Wallace plays. Last year, and apparently this year, will help prove my point.

St. Louis—Mark Bulger: Bulger has a career 85.2 rating, but is having a rough year. Who can blame him? The Rams are terrible.

He hasn’t had a passer rating above 71 in his last two years, though, and I think his prime years are done. Wallace has proven his numbers and is still in the prime of his career, not even 30, and hasn’t taken many hits. I would take Wallace over Bulger.

Tampa Bay—Byron Leftwich: I am a big Leftwich fan, and he hasn’t gotten his fair share most of the time. He has a career 80.3 passer rating and has played well this year.

His career stats of 58 touchdowns to 40 interceptions is also pretty good. I think this one is a wash—Leftwich brings more of an arm, Wallace is more accurate. Depending on what they are looking for either could start.

Washington—Jason Campbell: Now this one makes the MOST sense out of any team.

Wallace is literally the version of Campbell that they want him to become.

He doesn’t have as good of an arm, but is more mobile and is just flat-out better than Campbell. Get owner Daniel Snyder to trade for Wallace right now. A 9-7 win over the Rams is embarrassing. I take Wallace.

Tallying it up, I have Wallace starting for 14 teams. Pretty close to my prediction.

How does someone so good get stuck as a backup and people like Tarvaris Jackson, Chris Simms, Quincy Carter, Josh McCown, Tim Rattay, Kyle Boller, Brody Croyle, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Hensen, etc., get chances to start?

It has always boggled my mind.

Regardless, someone should take a chance on Wallace. He could turn your season around, as he is a very good starter in my mind.

NFL Week Two Power Rankings: Its A New York State Of Mind

Jonathan Slotter — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 10:36:45 -0400

NFL Power Ranking Week 2

Last week in parenthesis

Best 0-2 Team: Tennessee Titans

Worst 2-0 Team: Denver Broncos

Team who gained the most positions: New York Jets, 11. Beating the Patriots will do that for a team.

Team who lost the most positions: Green Bay Packers, 9. Losing to the Bengals at home will do that for a team.

Team I have yet to figure out: The Bengals. When Chad Ochocinco is motivated they seem to win. Perhaps every team should have a scoring ritual that he can mimic.

On to the Rankings:

1. (6) New York Giants – Running defense struggled, pass defense was excellent. Eli conducted another game winning drive and the Giants spoil Jerry Jones' night. Any road win in the NFC East is tough.

2. (13) New York Jets – The Jets now look like a serious contender in the AFC after two great performances. Their defense looks unstoppable, Sanchez has played not terrible, but made plays when he has had to, and the running game is excellent. Perhaps they can challenge the Steelers.

3. (4) Minnesota Vikings – Struggled against the Lions but put it together in the second half and Peterson ran wild. Their offensive line needs to protect Favre better or his games started streak will be snapped.

4. (8) Atlanta Falcons – Not a great game against Carolina, but everyone in front of them loses so they move up. Their offense looks good, but defense has to step up, especially if they are going to beat the Saints.

5. (14) New Orleans Saints – A good win against a pretty good Eagles team, but with no McNabb. Regardless, I am starting to believe they can compete, despite their defense being pretty bad. Drew Brees might have a better year than last year, which is scary.

6. (1) Pittsburgh Steelers – Lost a tough game to the Bears. Defense wasn’t the same without Polamalu but was still pretty decent. Need to find a running game if they want to defend their Super Bowl title.

7. (11) Indianapolis Colts – Move up by default of not losing their games. Have not looked impressive in first two games, but the offense is coming around. Defense couldn’t bottle up the Wildcat, how will they fair against the Cards next week?

8. (12) Baltimore Ravens – Defense was lacking against the Chargers but helped them to field goals in the red zone and made enough plays to win. Flacco looked great. If that offense continues and the defense plays like its supposed to they could be a front runner in the AFC.

9. (2) New England Patriots – After two lackluster performances, the Pats have to be wondering. Welker not playing hurt Brady tremendously, and Brady does not look to be in rhythm yet, especially with Galloway. Defense did its part today however.

10. (3) Philadelphia Eagles – Defense was atrocious against the Saints, not that any defense might fair to well. Need to get more pressure on Brees, but I believe with McNabb that the Eagles win the game.

11. (15) Chicago Bears – Cutler avenges his last weeks performance by constructing a game wining drive. Still doesn’t look like the Pro Bowler we know but is getting closer to that form. Defense played scrappy with Urlacher missing.

12. (5) San Diego Chargers – Defense looked terrible in an outing against the Ravens. On the flip side, offense did amazing against a solid Ravens D. Need to score in the red zone if they aspire to reach the Super Bowl.

13. (16) San Francisco 49ers – Another solid, balanced performance. Injury to Gore is concerning. Shaun Hill improves to 9-3 as a starter.

14. (9) Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo struggled, but the running game was excellent. Defense needs to step it up a notch if they want to win the NFC, especially in the loaded NFC East. No one hit the scoreboard, that’s also a plus.

15. (20) Houston Texans – As bad as the Texans played against the Jets, they played this good against the Titans. Their defense needs some work allowing Chris Johnson to beat them in every way, but a win against Tennessee for Houston fans is always so sweet.

16. (7) Tennessee Titans – A surprise 0-2 start for the Titans. They have had some tough games, but the defense really needs some work. The lack of pass rush against the Texans was surprising, especially after the Jets gave them a blue print last week.

17. (21) Arizona Cardinals – Got their “Can’t win on the East Coast” off of their back. The offense was crisp, the defense was active, and was the normal Arizona Cardinals we are used to seeing.

18. (18) Buffalo Bills – Beat a less talented Buccaneers team. Should have won by more. Defense stepped up when it needed and Trent Edwards continues to play excellent minus that one interception.

19. (10) Green Bay Packers – Losing to the Bengals? Pretty bad. Their defense looked terrible and their offense was out of sink, and failed to shred the Bengals defense. I’m not sure who the Packers are yet, especially after last weeks outing.

20. (17) Seattle Seahawks - Had a reality check after dismantling the Rams. Hassleback is hurt and their defense needs a lot of work. Allowing 207 yards to one player is just frightening.

21. (30) Cincinnati Bengals – As bad as last week was, this week was just as good. They brought their bad karma into Green Bay and turned it around. The offense looked great against an above average defense and the defense did enough to win the game.

22. (19) Washington Redskins – Did not play well against the terrible Rams. Defense bottled up Jackson but the offense has to come around to compete with any of the teams in the NFC East. The running game has to step up.

23. (27) Denver Broncos – The Broncos are 2-0, but much with smoke and mirrors. A miracle the first week and the Browns in week 2. I will wait until they play a good team to reserve judgment. Although they did play well against the Browns.

24. (23) Oakland Raiders – Beat the lowly Chiefs. The defense was great, but the running game has to be better because Russell is just not where he needs to bet yet. They are moving in the right direction I believe.

25. (22) Miami Dolphins– Did everything they could do to win the game, but their defense failed them. I’m not sure how you lose the game when you have 45 minutes in time of possession. Wildcat looked back to normal form, but need to find a way to make Pat White plays more productive. Defense needs to not let big plays happen.

26. (28) Carolina Panthers – Jake Delhomme redeemed himself after his last two games. Defense needs to step up if the Panthers want to compete. 0-2 start is not a good sign in the loaded NFC South.

27. (23) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Played hard again, but this year is going to be tough. Defense allowed Fred Jackson to run all over them. Offense is going to have to carry them much of the way.

28. (24) Cleveland Browns – Defense was atrocious against the Broncos and the offense wasn’t much better. Braylon Edwards had a good game though.

29. (29) Kansas City Chiefs – Played hard against the Raiders in a classic defensive struggle. Cassel needs to play better if they are to win any games this year. Defense played well against the Raiders run.

30. (26) Jacksonville Jaguars – Let the Cardinals run all over them and the 31-17 score was a favorable final score. Garrard didn’t make any mistakes, but the defense allowed the highest passing percentage in one game in NFL History.

31. (31) Detroit Lions – Played an excellent first half against the Vikings, but then realized they were the Lions. Fans hope to see more of Stafford to Johnson in the future.

32. (32) St. Louis Rams – Also played well enough to move up, but couldn’t make any plays at the end of the game to win. Offense is atrocious, Bulger needs to step up his game.

Arizona Cardinals: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Against The 49ers

Jonathan Slotter — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 15:02:38 -0400

The Arizona Cardinals got off to a slow start and continued to get nothing going as they lost to the San Francisco 49ers to open the season last night. On a night of reward and recognition, it looked like the Cardinals were caught up in their own headlines.

It looked like they expected to win, like they had deserved it.

Despite their run last season, many critics were skeptical of the Cards coming into last night's game, and the Cards did nothing to silence these critics. No doubt missing Steve Breaston hurt them, but this is no excuse for their lack of intensity on the offensive end.

There was no sense of urgency as the Cards failed to get a big play, nothing over the 25 yard mark the entire game. Larry Fitzgerald didn't get going until the second half, and he still only ended up with 71 yards. The coverage on him was excellent all night. Anquan Boldin only recorded two catches for 19 yards. Not exactly stunning numbers. With this preface let's look at the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

The Good

Tim Hightower had an excellent night receiving the ball, with 12 catches for 121 yards. The 49ers were blitzing all night, and Hightower caught many screen and slip passes that were the most effective plays for the Cardinals.

The defense played great. With the offense sputtering all night, the defense made many strong efforts. Calais Campbell had six tackles, a pass deflection, and was in Hill's face all night long.

Darnell Docket was perhaps the player of the game, with two tackles, a sack, and heavy pressure all game long. Antrell Rolle provided solid coverage and pressure, forcing a fumble at the end of the first half.

Karlos Dansby started out wonderful, offering six tackles, including one for a loss, and played great in coverage. His fellow linebacker Gerald Hayes had 10 tackles, with four for a loss. Adrian Wilson also played excellent, being his aggressive, pro bowl self, but only had two tackles.

Chris Beanie Wells provided a spark running the ball, averaging 4.1 yards per carry and looked very slim, quick, and decisive, despite missing most of training camp. If he can provide a solid rushing combo with Hightower, the offense should start to click soon.

The third quarter was also solid, holding the 49ers to four total yards, and coming back to take the lead 16-13.

The Bad

The Cardinals offense was dismal in about every way imaginable. Kurt Warner was pressured all night and indecisive with the ball. Fitzgerald and Boldin could not get open for most of the night, and when they did, it was not for any big gains. The play calling looked timid and passive all night, even when the Cards faithful (seems like a bit of an oxymoron) needed something to get off their feet and scream.

The defensive pass rush was nonexistent, unless they brought heavy blitzes with Hayes, Dansby, or the safties. The push on running plays was good, but Campbell must step up on the other side so that the Cards can play a little more conservatively, especially on third and fourth downs.

Bryant McFadden. He was supposed to be a solid pickup for the Cards, but he allowed the one thing the Cards just cannot afford to give up: a big play. He got beat on a double move by Issac Bruce that put the 49ers up 13-3. He also got beat on a few other plays, but kept the damage to a minimum. He has to step up, because DRC was playing excellent on the other side of him.

The Ugly

One of the ugliest things I saw from the game were Tim Hightower's rushes. He averaged 1.9 yards per rush and failed to get back to the line of scrimmage numerous times. He has to be able to provide an adequate punch on the ground until Chris Wells gets fully acclimated with the system.

The lack of effort and excitement was the other. The offense was complacent and acted like they were supposed to win. What made the Cardinals so exciting in the post season was the energy they brought to the field, how the offense sparked the defense and vice versa. This did not happen yesterday, and HAS to happen in order for the Cards to have a successful season.

Maybe this is the kick in the butt they needed to jump start their season. We shall see next week against Jacksonville.

Three People Who Need to Step Up If The Cardinals Are To Contend

Jonathan Slotter — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 19:53:29 -0400

After the most successful season in Arizona Cardinals history, the Cardinals look to repeat as not only NFC West champs, but NFC champs in general. However a few departures have left some holes in the Cardinals starting lineups and some key people must fill in to be able to give the Cards a chance to contend with the big boys once again.

We all know about Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Karlos Dansby, Adrian Wilson, DRC, and Antrell Rolle, but who are some other X-Factors who are going to have to play a key role for the Cardinals in 2009.

1. Tim Hightower

The departure of Edgerrin James leaves a whole in the running back department for Arizona. They drafted Chris "Beanie" Wells to help mitigate some of this loss, but because he is injury prone it is looking like Hightower will have to carry the majority of the load.

Here are the stats from last year:

att/ yds/ td/ avg

James: 133/ 514/ 3/ 3.9

Hightower: 143/ 399/ 10/ 2.8

The stat that REALLY jumps off the page for me is Hightower's 2.8 yards per carry. He will have to improve this to James' 3.9 if he is going to be at all effective this upcoming season. One thing that you have to like is 10 touchdowns. He can punch it in when he is near the goal line, which should help the Cards if they struggle near the goal line again.

If he gets close to Edge's 3.9 yds per carry, lets say 3.3, keeps his 10 touchdowns, and gets about 250 carries here is what his stats would look like:

250/ 825/ 10/ 3.3

This is a good line that will definitely help the cards win, take pressure off the passing game, open things up for Boldin and Fitzgerald, and give time for Chris Wells to develop.

2. Calais Campbell

Campbell will be in his third year in the league and will have some big shoes to fill, after the departure of Antonio Smith. Smith played a critical role in the Cardinals super bowl run, creating pressure in pass defense and help filling up gaps in the running game.

Last year Smith had four sacks, 41 tackles, and two forced fumbles. He could have a career year for Houston, being on the other side of Mario Williams (who wouldn't want to do that). Campbell is a younger, more monstrous (6'7" 290 lbs) version of Smith who has a lot of potential and talent but needs to utilize it this year in a big way.

With more playing time Campbell could get around 50 tackles and five or six sacks, compared to his 28 and zero sacks from a year ago. With Darnell Dockett on the other side he will have plenty of one on one's to do damage. All the experts predict him to have a good year, the Cardinals faithful should he more than fills in for Smith.

3. Bryant McFadden

After letting their second and third corners go Bryant McFadden was a solid pickup for the Cards. He will be asked to be the final piece of a strong secondary, already featuring Adrian Wilson, Dominique Rogers Cromartie, and Antrell Rolle. The Cards also lack depth in the corner back position so McFadden will need to play big.

Last year with the Steelers McFadden recorded 41 tackles, two interceptions, and eight pass deflections in 10 games. The Cardinals will be counting on him to play all 16 games. If he can solidify the corner spot then the front seven can focus on stopping the run, where the Cardinals are a little thin, which would help immensely.

If the Cardinals can stop the run and make people throw into the strength of their defense, it can cause turnovers, play loose and cause momentum shifts. This can lead to a very successful year for the Arizona Cardinals. And if they are successful again, these three players will have to play a critical role in this success.

If The Rays Do a Few Things, 2010 Could Be Special

Jonathan Slotter — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 22:24:49 -0400

I have thrown in the towel for this year. Four straight games of having the lead or being tied going into the eighth inning, and also seven times during the past three weeks. My heart just can't take it anymore.

So what do I have to write about? Next year, of course.

The Rays never played up to potential, and nothing exemplified this more than their pitching, both starting and relief (relief more of late). The hitting was good, but was not as clutch as it was in the past. Perhaps tied for most important, though, was the defense, as Tampa fell to 11th in fielding percentage. If the Rays can fix these things I believe they can compete for another AL East crown.

Here are some issues that the Rays need to get a handle on during the offseason in order to get back on track:

1. Sign Back Bartlett, Crawford, Niemann, and Aki

For those of you who aren't aware of the payroll situation for Tampa, here is a look. The Rays will clear $8 million with Kazmir being traded to the Angles, $4.45 million with Troy Percival not being welcomed back, perhaps $2.1 million if they do not resign Dioner Navarro, and most likely $3.7 million for not resigning Chad Bradford. This adds up to about $16 million being freed up.

Bartlett is heading into arbitration (I'm not sure how that works) and will most likely get a hefty raise. He earned almost $2 million last year so he should get six or seven the next year. This takes away $5 million. Crawford is due a $9.5 million club option next year, and the Rays should definitely offer this. This at least gives them time to figure out what they are going to do (sign him back, trade him) to get the maximum value for him.

Akinori Iwamura has a club option of $3.5 million next year, and should be signed back because he is a .300 hitter with some power, who is smart, and a solid defender. Also the knee injury didn't affect his range too much. Jeff Niemann made $1.29 million last year, and with only one year of pro experience they might get a discount on him, but he should get around $5 million or $6 million as well.

This leaves the Rays with around $5 million of that $16 million that they freed up (have to subtract the contract of what they have now from what they theoretically would make the next year to find this number). Which brings the Rays to their second most pressing issue.

2. Find a REAL Closer

The Rays' make-shift bullpen worked for pretty much the whole year until these last three weeks. With that $5 million the Rays need to find a true closer. With the team's payroll expect to rise, because of increased attendance and that continued to maintain high, the owners should be more willing to spend the money.

JP Howell, Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, Lance Cormier are all quality people. They have good stuff, are , and can function in a seven, eighth inning role, just not as the closer. JP Howell looked good at the beginning, having better stats than Mariano Rivera until about a month ago. Brian Shouse and Randy Choate are good situational lefty guys. Therefore a solid closer is the only thing handicapping the Rays bullpen.

With that being said let's look at some candidates.

David Aardsma: Ever since going to Seattle to be the closer he's been lights out. He has a 2.15 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP, 10.5 K's per 9, and 35 saves. He was the best closer in the AL outside of Mariano Rivera and is still young. He will be going to arbitration with Seattle so there's always an outside shot of getting him, but it seems unlikely. However, pitching prospect Mark Lowe might compete with him for the closer spot which might not sit well with him and cause him to bolt.

Jose Valverde: The eccentric closer for the Astros has a 1.96 ERA and has always been reliable throughout his career. He was hurt earlier during the year but has improved his numbers quite a bit. The negative on him is that he will be very expensive. Closer to the $10 million than the $5 million range.

Mike Gonzalez: A semi-closer for the Braves who has had a productive career. He has been platooning the closer role with Rafael Soriano. He has a 2.49 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. He would love a chance at getting the full closer role, and the Rays could get him for closer to the $5 range. This would be a very quality and economical pickup for the Rays.

Trevor Hoffman: Most likely he wants to leave the Brewers because they are not a contender. His accolades speak for themselves, and he hasn't showed signs of slowing down. He has a 1.67 ERA, .98 WHIP, and 30 saves. Most importantly only one loss. He would be closer to the $10 million range but definitely worth the payment if the ownership is willing to shell out the money. However, I don't see this happening.

George Sherril: The former closer of the Orioles is now an eighth inning Dodgers man. He was an all star last year and he would love nothing more than his closer role back on a contending team. He has a 1.82 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP. He has yet to be paid over a million dollars so perhaps the Rays could get him for around a six or seven million dollars. Also because of his success in the AL East the Rays would love him on their team.

3. BJ Upton and Pat Burrell relearn how to hit

Pat Burrell's first year as a Ray was forgetful. He hovered around the .240 mark all year and didn't show any signs of power. Perhaps next year he can play up to his $9 million dollar contract. He is usually a slow starter, but this took it to a whole new level. Perhaps playing DH all of the time messed up his timing, and next year he can rebound. Even if he doesn't hit 30 home runs, hitting .280 with 20 home runs and 80 rbis would be nice.

BJ Upton had an atrocious year, especially after coming off the heels of his excellent post season. He has the potential to be great, but needs to do a couple of things in order to maximize his potential.

A) Fix his swing. He has a lot of movement in his swing, with his hands and feet. The feet don't bother me as much, but his hands do. If he were quicker to the ball, instead of having the hitch in his swing, he would hit for a much higher average and power. I think having spring training this year will help him tremendously.

B) Don't be so lackadaisical on the base path. He got picked off more than anyone on first base than I thought possible. If he pays attention to his outfield mate Carl Crawford, BJ could be just as deadly as him on the base path.

C) Expand his strike zone. He struck out far too many times, and mostly because he was in pitchers' counts the whole year. If he learns to take a few more pitches he will move his OBP right on up and be rewarded with a trip to the number one spot in the lineup.

4. Move Ben Zobrist to right field permanently

The "all-utility" player Ben Zobrist should be put in right field. His arm isn't ideal but he has lots of speed, makes great plays and great reads, and will do more than adequate job in right field. Much better than the "Gabe-platoon" that the Rays have now. With him in right field the lineup would be:

1. Bartlett

2. Crawford

3. Zobrist

4. Longoria

5. Pena

6. Burrell

7. Upton

8. Zaun

9. Aki

Isn't that beautiful? Plus he is a switch hitter, who hits well from both sides of the plate. He is better than the Gabe's in every aspect of the game.

A Game By Game Look At Texas Tech's Season

Jonathan Slotter — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 12:36:51 -0400

A year after perhaps the most successful season in Texas Tech history, the Red Raiders have their work cut out for them if they want any chance to even have a sniff of what they did last year. However the offensive line should be good, which should help newcomer Taylor Potts, the running backs are strong with Baron Batch and Aaron Crawford, and the linebackers are some of the best in the Big XII.

Game One: vs. North Dakota

The Fighting Sioux don't really stand a chance in this one. This is functionally a warm-up scrimmage game so that Potts can get timing down with his receivers and hope not to get hurt. Tech will put up around 50-60 points and they will get on with their lives preparing for Rice the next week.

Prediction: Tech 56—ND 7

Game Two: vs. Rice

Rice lost a lot of talent last year, their four-year starting quarterback Chase Clement, Jarrett Dillard, and James Casey (to the NFL). These are players that don't come along to often, let alone all at the same time for Rice. They will be starting lots of inexperienced players and things should not bode well for the Owls.

Another interesting stat, Rice was 111th in total defense last year, 110th in pass defense, 80th in sacks against, and 83rd in sacks. Look for Tech to rack up the yards without pressure and get pressure on the new Rice quarterback.

Prediction: Tech 52—Rice 10

Game Three: at Texas

This is the game of the year in some people's eyes for Texas Tech (I beg to differ and believe the OU game is, and is actually winnable). Regardless, Texas is angry from last year, they are at home, they have lots of returning starters, in other words, this could get ugly. Good thing for Tech? Texas still has no running game, which is where they usually get gashed.

Tech lost both of its starting defensive ends to the NFL, their best safety (Darcel McBath) also to the NFL, and lack depth. They will get tired and most likely fail to put pressure on McCoy. Another good thing for Tech? Texas ranks 104th in pass defense. They will be able to move the ball. Texas lost its best pass rusher, Orakpo, to the NFL, and Tech returns three of five of its linemen.

This should be entertaining, for a while. Look for Tech to keep it close in the first half but probably lose it big in the second half. If Tech doesn't turn the ball over there is always a chance.

Prediction: UT 55—Tech 35

Game Four: at Houston

The University of Houston is on the rise this year and should look to compete for the C-USA title. Behind a great quarterback that almost no one has heard of, Case Keenum, the Cougars will compete, especially at home. They have a sophomore stud Bryce Beall at running back who racked up over 1,200 yards last season. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if they won. However, Tech just has more talent on both ends of the ball than U of H.

Good news for Tech? U of H was 88th in turnover margin, 91st in pass defense, and 71st in sacks allowed. Tech should be able to get pressure, force turnovers, and score a lot. Tech will have problems getting rush on the Cougars though because of all the losses on the defensive line, but U of H lost some starters on the offensive line so it should be interesting.

Prediction: Tech 45—Houston 38

Game Five: vs. New Mexico

This should be another warm-up game for Tech as they get ready for the rest of their Big XII play. New Mexico was 45th in total defense last year, but when they played a top offense, Tulsa, gave up 56 points. Historically New Mexico plays terrible in Lubbock and hasn't won a game this decade.

New Mexico doesn't turn the ball over, and doesn't allow sacks. Look for Tech's linebackers to have good games, racking up the tackles and stuffing the run. They were 110th in passing offense last season, so Tech will probably play with eight in the box.

Prediction: Tech 38—New Mexico 13

Game Six: vs. Kansas State

Last time Kansas State came to Tech? Dwayne Slay went Brian Dawkins on the Wildcats forcing two fumbles and, let us not remind Allan Everidge.

Josh Freeman is gone, not that I thought he was very good to begin with, and Bill Snyder is back but he has his work cut out for him. He has a good group of receivers, but not much else.

Bad News for K-State? They were 117th in defense last year. Look for them to give up points, and a lot of them. They were also 97th in turnover margin, Tech should be able to force a lot of turnovers, especially with a new inexperienced quarterback.

Prediction: Tech 49—K-State 17

Game Seven: at Nebraska

Another revenge game. A game Tech should have lost last year, and the last time they played in Lincoln, Nebraska fumbled a game-ending interception and Tech won the game. Nebraska looks to be much improved from previous years, and playing in Lincoln never hurts. They have a great pair of running backs, solid receivers, but will need new quarterback Zac Lee to step up and take Joe Ganz' spot.

Bad news for Tech? Nebraska was 15th in passing last year and Tech lost a lot in pass rush and pass defense. Nebraska should put a lot of points on the board. Nebraska was 15th in sacks, look for them to test the offensive line of Tech.

Good news for Tech? Nebraska has three new linebackers and was 107th in turnover margin. I look for this to be worse with a new quarterback at the helm. If Tech can force turnovers I think they will win, but Tech needs Jamar Wall to step up as a defensive playmaker.

Prediction: Tech 42—Nebraska 38

Game Eight: vs. Texas A&M

This has become one of the nastiest rivalries in the nation. And why not? A&M gets mad that Tech beats them year in and year out, and they are in rebuilding mode. Jerrod Johnson (who I think is a bad version of Vince Young) leads the Aggies who look to rebound from a bad year. The Aggies will need to improve their defense if they want any chance of winning.

Good news for Tech? Aggies were 114th in total defense, 95th in passing defense, 115th in sacks allowed, 100th in sacks, and 104th in turnover margin. I don't expect these stats to be drastically different. This means Tech should have plenty of time to get the ball down the field and Potts will have ALL DAY in the pocket. Unless they cheap shot him like Harrell.

Good news for the Aggies? Tech's defense is weaker, and they moved the ball well last year in first half against Tech. They could keep it interesting if they don't turn the ball over. They have emerging receivers so if Johnson can be accurate then they might have something working there.

Prediction: Tech 49—Aggies 14

Game Nine: vs. Kansas

This game could spell big trouble for Texas Tech. Kansas plays Tech well every year, they return Desmond Briscoe and Todd Reesing, and they have a strong secondary. Tech however has beat Kansas the last three times they have played, all have been very close though. Kansas might have a edge in talent, with lots of returning starters on both sides of the ball.

Bad news for Tech? Kansas is eighth in passing, 40th in sacks, and 45th in turnover margin. Reesing doesn't turn the ball over, which is not good for Tech as they will need all the chances they can get.

Good news for Tech? Kansas was 97th in sacks allowed and 114th in pass defense. Also they lost a few defensive linemen so the pass rush shouldn't be as good. This will be a shootout.

Prediction: Kansas 35—Tech 31

Game 10: at Oklahoma State

Every year Tech travels to Stillwater, it's a good game. Last time, Crabtree dropped a game winning pass. The year before that Bobby Reid (yes, Bobby Reid) led the Cowboys to a win in a very disappointing season. The time before that, Tech trailed 48-21 going into the fourth, but lost in a comeback that fell short because of an interception 51-49.

This game should be no different. Both teams are stacked on offense, neither team has much of a defense. OSU was 93rd in total defense, Tech was 77th. It will be one of the best games in the Big XII for sure, and OSU will want revenge after getting blown out in Lubbock. Returning Robinson, Bryant, and Savage though should put OSU over the edge in this one.

Prediction: Tech 45—OSU 52

Game 11: vs. Oklahoma

Tech has won each of the last two games against Oklahoma in Lubbock. They will be looking for revenge after their national championship hopes were dashed in Norman. Oklahoma returns a whole host of people: Bradford, Greshiam, Murray, and good wide receivers. However, they did lose a lot of their offensive line. Bradford will figure out what a rush looks like.

Good news for Tech? Not much, its a) in Lubbock and b) maybe they can get a pass rush.

Other than that they will have their work cut out for them Because it is in Lubbock, I think they have a chance. Potts will be seasoned by then, Batch will have a big game, and the defense always plays well at home. If Tech can jump on them early OU could be in for a battle.

Prediction: Tech 31—OU 28

Game 12: vs. Baylor (In Arlington)

Last year, Tech came out flat against Baylor after having just lost to Oklahoma. I don't expect the same thing this year, however, Baylor has something that Tech has never been able to solve, a running QB. Griffin, perhaps one of the top five QBs in the nation (no I'm not kidding) will give Tech trouble all day, just like last year, however it is too bad he is a one man team.

Baylor was 85th in total defense last year and 103rd in passing defense. They were also 94th in sacks allowed and 84th in sacks. This is all good for Tech. Good things for Baylor are they were fourth in turnover margin. Griffen doesn't turn over the ball. Also Baylor might be playing to be bowl eligible so Tech must come out ready.

Prediction: Tech 35—Baylor 21

BJ Upton is a Better Fielder Than Jacoby Ellsbury

Jonathan Slotter — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 21:41:36 -0400

I'm watching the Rays-Red Sox game on ESPN and Jacoby Ellsbury takes away a sure triple from BJ Upton on a line drive to left center. The next thing I hear Rick Sutcliffe say is "Jacoby Ellsbury should win a gold glove this year."

This is not true, because he was not even the best center fielder in the game he was playing in today.

Stats

Lets look at some stats that compare the two:

Errors/Fld %/ Assists/ Range/ Zone Factor

Ellsbury: 2/.993/3/7th/2nd

Upton: 2/ .994/6/5th/4th

Now I'm not sure what Zone Factor is (sabermetric people help me out because I don't understand them) but in the other four stats, Upton is better.

Upton plays the shallowest center field in the game and almost nothing gets behind him. He doesn't make many diving catches, but he's so fast he doesn't need to. He glides to the ball like an angel (that was for humor).

Assists have to be a factor in a gold glove. We all know who is going to win the other gold gloves, Ichiro Suzuki and Torii Hunter. Both of these players, especially Ichiro, have good arms.

Ellsbury has the WEAKEST arm out there besides maybe Juan Pierre, but Pierre didn't get any love all of those years in Colorado, why should Ellsbury? Because he is in Boston, duh!

Nobody runs on Upton anymore. He has a CANNON; probably the best arm in the outfield. Everybody knows that he makes perfect throws to home plate, and yet he still has double the amount of assists Ellsbury does.

But Ellsbury has Web Gems!

Again, this is ESPN propaganda.

While Ellsbury has made some nice plays, "nice catches" should not put him over the top of Upton who has double the assists.

Upton makes good catches, like this one that aren't sliding or diving catches, but ridiculous Jim Edmonds like catches. They are especially tough since he plays such a short center field.

If Francona trusted Ellsbury as much as Maddon trusts Upton, Ellsbury would be playing as shallow as Upton.

I don't think Upton will win the Gold Glove, I HOPE Carl Crawford wins it. Crawford deserves it with only 4 errors and many great plays, let's not forget the All-Star game. However, overall I think Upton has played a better outfield than Crawford.

If the voters are going to go off of those standards and not look at the stats, Crawford dwarfs Ellsbury (no pun intended), but because neither Upton nor Crawford wear a Boston jersey, they don't get near the recognition they deserve.

Why Notre Dame Doesn't Have a Fighting Chance To Win More Than Eight Games

Jonathan Slotter — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 23:38:38 -0400

For the first time in a while Notre Dame has high hopes for their football season. Some expect 11 wins and BCS bowl berth. WHOA WHOA WHOA! Lets take a back a bit, they did lose to Syracuse last year. Here is a game by game assessment of what will happen this year for the Irish.

Game 1: Nevada

Oh, this look winnable, Nevada is in the WAC. Wrong. Nevada has a very good offense and returns Colin Kaepernick who is a Offensive MVP for the WAC possibility. He can beat Notre Dame with both his legs and his arm. If his improvement continues he will throw for roughly 3,500 yards and rush for another 1,000. He could join the Vince Young and Dan Lefevour club.

Nevada was fifth in total offense which should be a good test of Notre Dame's defense. If Notre Dame's offense is SO good then they should be able to run all over Nevada as they were 91st last season. Although Nevada's pass defense was last, they had the number six pass rush defense. Golden Tate and Co. should have a big day.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38 Nevada 34

Game 2: AT Michigan

Notre Dame goes to the "Big House" for game number two. With the recent news about practicing too long I believe this means that Rodriguez has lost the team. They have a QB that fits the system (Tate Forcier), but is a freshman so he won't get all the snaps. Michigan's defense should be more solid than last year (67th in the nation).

Senior running back Brandon Minor will test Notre Dame in the rushing attack and Michigan has a plethera of wide receivers at their disposal. If Rodriguez can figure out the QB situation and get their rotation set then it should be a good game.

Prediction: Notre Dame 24 Michigan 14

This is where it gets tough Irish fans.

Game 3: Michigan State

Oh, how the Irish have struggled against Michigan State. Even playing in South Bend in front of Touchdown Jesus hasn't saved them. This will be the best team Notre Dame will have faced to this point. Michigan State doesn't have any standout talent, but they have a good scheme with good coaches.

Michigan State has a solid defense (41st in scoring D last year) and return plenty of starters. Especially in the secondary. This will give Tate, Jimmy Clausen, and Co. some trouble. The offense isn't talented but steady and should put up enough yards to compete. They were 49th in turnover margin so they don't turn the ball over. On the flip side, Notre Dame was 73 with more TO's than against.

Also, Notre Dame was, to say the least, overmatched last year against MSU and MSU's team isn't much different.

Prediction: Michigan State 28 Notre Dame 13

Game 4: At Purdue

Purdue is the worst team the Irish will face to this point in the season. They have a new coach and don't have as much talent as years past. Purdue is especially weak at the QB position because of departure of their scheduled starter due to academic reasons. They have strength at the running back position with three up and coming prospects.

Purdue was 61st and 48th in defense and offense last year and should be worse in those categories this year. This game should be a lock for Notre Dame.

Prediction: Notre Dame 31 Purdue 13

Game 5: Washington

Washington was just plain terrible last year, and they do not have enough talent to keep up with Notre Dame. Especially since this game is not in Seattle. They do have QB Jake Locker, but to make an 0-12 season better, I just don't see Washington able to compete. But, as I mentioned earlier, Notre Dame DID lose to SYRACUSE.

Prediction: Notre Dame 21 Washington 14

The final stretch is brutal

Game 6: USC

The holy grail of the season. If Notre Dame can win this game, it will make the season. Well you better look else where, the Irish aren't winning this one. Despite the fact I do think USC is overrated (freshman QB, replacing three linebackers), they have MUCH MUCH MUCH more talent than Notre Dame.

At running back USC is stacked, we know this. Notre Dame hasn't been close to beating USC in the last two years, (ever since the Bush Push). Their rushing defense is 45th, and should be better, but won't be able to contain the monster. They don't force turnovers and Barkley will have played OSU by then.

With this being said, Notre Dame will get dominated, again. Maybe not 38-3 but something similar.

Prediction: Notre Dame 7 USC 31

Game 7: Boston College

Notre Dame did lose this game last year, and Boston College didn't lose much and wasn't that talented last year. A good defense seems to stop them every time. Boston College returns most of its starts on D. Even though QB will have a new starting QB and they aren't sure who its going to be yet, they have a talented O-Line that should be able to protect him.

Last year the Eagles were FIFTH, one two three four FIFTH, in total defense. While they might not be that good, it will be enough to stop the Irish's offense. Last year it was 17-0 and the Irish were dominated from start to finish. It should be closer this year, but I don't think the Irish can overcome BC's great defense.

Prediction: Notre Dame 7 Boston College 13

Game 8: Washington State

This game should be as challenging as Washington vs Washington State. Washington State won a THRILLER in the Apple Cup with a 13-10 victory over rival Washington with a last second field goal. Again, Wazzu doesn't have enough talent to keep up with the Irish, no matter where the game was at.

Prediction: Notre Dame 30 Washington State 6

Game 9: Navy

A game that Notre Dame probably should have lost last year should bring another thriller this year. Navy brings back a great defense with eight starters which should give Notre Dame problems. Also they have a great junior QB Ricky Dobbs who is supposed to be really great.

Despite all of this I don't think Navy has enough talent to keep up. They don't turn the ball over much though, and I think that will keep them in it.

Prediction: Notre Dame 27 Navy 17

Game 10: AT Pittsburgh

Last season it was a 4 OT thriller which Notre Dame lost, and played quite well in to be honest. Without talented running back Leshean McCoy the Panthers will have to find a way with their defense and lack of turnovers to win games this year. They have some true freshman at skilled positions and a good o-line to cancel some of this out.

Pitt was 27th in total defense. This does not bode well for Notre Dame, as I have stated they have yet to really play well against a good defense. A young team will turn the ball over which could get Pitt in trouble, but I believe their defense will shut down the Irish more so this year. Also playing at Pitt won't help.

Prediction: Notre Dame 14 Pittsburgh 20

Game 11: Connecticut

Connecticut lost perhaps the best player in their young history in Donald Brown who was a beast at the running back position. UCONN was sixth last year in total defense and will be relying on it again to shut down Notre Dame. Their defense is also VERY good against the pass so Notre Dame will have to rely on their running game to produce.

This game is a toss up, I think UConn will win, but it wouldn't surprise me if they lost. So don't get your pannies in wad over this one.

Prediction: Connecticut 10 Notre Dame 6

Game 12: AT Stanford

Stanford is no push over despite their lack of recent success. Like Notre Dame they are young and could be coming into their own. This game could have bowl implications for both teams. Stanford has gotten some great recruits but most likely does not have the talent to keep up with Notre Dame.

Another red flag for me in this game for Stanford is their defense (75th last year). Also a young QB could lead to turnovers and provide the Irish with favorable field position. Despite how bad Stanford was last year the Irish only won by seven.

Prediction: Notre Dame 30 Stanford 16

Thats a 7-5 record, 8-4 at best. In a year where Notre Dame plays a ridiculous four road games. They should join a real conference so this can't happen. But thats a whole other debate. Even if they win 10, its because of this SOFT soft SOFT schedule.

Now let me hear it Notre Dame fans, Ill be happy to any questions, comments, concerns.

Stephen Jackson On The Move? Why Houston Makes Sense

Jonathan Slotter — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 20:48:43 -0400

Stephen Jackson, according to reports, told reporters that he would like to be traded to a contender. He mentioned the Cleveland Cavaliers and the three Texas teams as possible places he would like to go. While Cleveland would be a nice fit, I think Houston makes the most sense for Jackson.

1. Hometown:

Jackson went to Port Arthur Memorial High School which is about an hour outside of Houston before he went to play at Oak Hill Academy. He also lives in Houston during the offseason so this transition would be quite an easy one. He could retire there, keep his home and family there and be right at home.

While there would be no hometown discount for Jackson, who just signed a huge 3 year extension with the Warriors, the Rockets would need to dump McGrady's contract to make this more of a plausible situation.

2. Style of Play:

The Rockets without Yao have stated they would like to run more. This seems to be right up Jackson's ally. With the tallest players on the team being Scola, Landry, and newly acquired Australian center David Andersen, the Rockets will need to outrun a lot of teams in order to tire out the other team's big men.

With that being said, the lack of height in the front court can be made up with nice size at the two and three positions. If Jackson was added to the team, the two and three would be Ariza, Battier, and Jackson, all over 6'8 and long, tall, good defenders.

Jackson would also bring the same toughness and grittiness that Artest brings. Jackson plays tough, plays good defense on the best defender, and provides the same emotion Artest does. Jackson is a competitor who loves to play the game.

3. Rockets Need a Playmaker:

With the exit of Artest, McGrady permanently shelved, and Yao done for the year, the Rockets need someone who can create off the dribble and provide teammates with opportunities. Other than Aaron Brooks, no one on the Rockets can do this.

Jackson, who averaged 21 points, seven assists and five rebounds, can do it all. He creates off the dribble for teammates, his own shot, as well as gives opportunities for shooters and post players.

The Rockets have plenty of shooters in Brooks, Ariza, and Battier but pressure will be needed to relieve Brooks. Jackson would be the perfect compliment. Also, the length of Ariza, Battier, and Jackson would rival the Lakers with Odom, Kobe, and Artest. The Rockets are already solid on defense but will need to have consistent offense to keep up in the west.

Also don't forget in the month of February, pretty much the only month Jackson was completely healthy, he averaged 27 points, eight assists, and six rebounds. This rivals Lebron, Kobe, and D-Wade.

4. Contender:

The Rockets are a contender in the West, and showed last year in the playoffs that they don't need Yao to win. The Rockets are a contender in the West, and showed last year in the playoffs that they don't need Yao to win. The one thing they were lacking, as I stated earlier, was a consistent scorer (which Artest did not provide) and a big man, which they seem to have found in Andersen, well he will at least suffice.

The Spurs picked up Richard Jefferson, the Cavs have Shaq and play perhaps the slowest game in the world, and the Mavs are headed in the wrong direction. Houston is young, up and coming, with all the tools, and his hometown, with the correct style of play to entice the Captain to come play for them.

Gut Check: David Price Superb After Kazmir Trade

Jonathan Slotter — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 19:15:01 -0400

Maybe its a coincidence, or maybe David Price realizes what he needs to do down the stretch to help his team win, but he pitched a gem Saturday afternoon.

Price went 7.1 innings allowing five hits and one run, while only walking one. These are the performances he will need, especially on the road against contenders, if the Tampa Bay Rays would like a chance to defend their title.

I am clearly saddened by the Scott Kazmir trade, as I wrote an article saying why it really isn't a good idea to trade him, but if trading him means keeping Carl Crawford then I am all for it. Here are some other stats that worry me a bit about Kazmir:

He's won four of his last five starts. Well this might be true, he hasn't pitched well outside of the Trop, seven runs to a Seattle team who can't hit. Tampa Bay owns Toronto so that game shouldn't matter.

Also his ERA for August is still 5.10. Even if he's won the games he hasn't pitched wonderful. The only game he pitched perfect in was his last one, against Toronto.

Secondly his fastball velocity has never recovered. He gets it up to 93 occasionally but is usually around the 88-91 range. His stuff is still really good, don't get me wrong, but I'm not sure if he will ever be what he was two years ago. His 10 strikeouts though prove that he still has it.

Lastly, injuries. If you are paying a guy, especially a pitcher, a good amount of money, you would like him to make 30 starts a year. Kazmir has not done that since 2007. If he cannot stay healthy he will never live up to his worth.

With all that said, I am still sad to see him go because he was a face of the franchise. However back to the original point I'm trying to make: The Rays will be just fine without him.

He hasn't pitched well for most of the year and the Rays are still in contention. Jeff Niemann has been a nice surprise, Aki Iwamura came back today as well so now the Rays are at full strength in the field, and their defense should be shoring up as well. If Davis or Sonnanstine can pitch under a five ERA then they will be just as effective as Kazmir.

If the Rays make the playoffs Davis or Sonanstine won't pitch, or at least start. Starters of Shields, Garza, and Niemann I believe would be just fine. Although Niemann hasn't pitched in a big game, neither had any of the Rays pitchers last year before, well, last year.

The Rays bullpen has been and consistent all year, and if David Price keeps emerging, using him as a starter or a shut down guy in the bullpen in the playoffs would just add another great piece to the second best bullpen in the AL.

This is not the waving of the white flag, as most people seem to perceive it as. It is building a team for the future, while trying to maintain a chance in the race. I think the Rays have the flexibility and depth to do both.

If The Rays Make The Playoffs, This Might Have Been Their Defining Game

Jonathan Slotter — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 22:06:25 -0400

Resilient.

That is the word to describe the Tampa Bay Rays. No matter what the situation was, whenever things looked bleak, the Rays always seem to stay in contention.

If they make the playoffs, today, Aug. 24 against Roy Halladay, could be a big reason why.

It started off well—three runs off Halladay in the first. The Rays scored a few bloop hits and must have thought it was their lucky day.

Jeff Niemann looked on top of his game, throwing only six pitches in the first inning. Perhaps this would be a win for the Rays when you almost always expect a loss facing Halladay.

Then, the second inning happened—a disastrous six run inning. Niemann lost control, gave a cookie right down the middle for Rod Barajas' grand slam, and just like that, "The Doctor" had his lead.

Usually when this happens, Mr. Halladay takes care of business. However, today was a little different. The Rays kept getting good at bats which didn't produce runs, but they kept their focus. Then, another three run inning in the fourth and it was all tied up.

Meanwhile, Jeff Niemann had pitched two straight three up—three down innings. Instead of folding as you'd expect from most rookies, Niemann (who could win rookie of the year) pitched six innings to get the W.

The pitcher expected to win, Halladay, struggled.

The Rays have had moderate success against Halladay, however; he had a 2.10 ERA against them this year.

In the fifth inning, Carlos Pena homered to right for his 35th of the year and the Rays comeback was complete. They won 12-7 in an entertaining game that proved that when the Rays need it most, they will come through.

It's unexplainable how the Rays, who have such a young team, continue to bounce back—especially against arguably the game's best pitcher.

Halladay gave up seven earned runs—one more than his previous worst (six), which came against Boston in his last outing. He also allowed a season high 12 hits. The Rays battled him all game long, as he almost threw 20 pitches per inning.

However, back to the Rays' resilience.

After the second inning, this game looked like a sure loss, especially after getting blanked the day before. It is going to take efforts like these for the Rays to continue to climb up the Wild Card race ladder.

This week, the Red Sox take on the White Sox, and the Rangers face the Yankees. The Rays can pick up some ground with the series against the Jays, who they have won 10 of 13 against this year.

They also face the Tigers, where they have some favorable pitching match-ups, as I stated before.

With that in mind, they have to take it day by day (they are only two and half games out of the Wild Card) and win some road games, where they are still nine games under .500.

Rays And Rangers Battle For Wild Card Supremacy

Jonathan Slotter — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 22:11:36 -0400

After perhaps one of the most disappointing road trips in recent memories, the Rays are 4-2 on their recent home stand (should be 5-1 but Joe Maddon thinks Russ Springer can pitch, but I'm just bitter).

This, like all series at this point in the year, is very important for both teams. With the Red Sox playing the Yankees both teams vie to take a comfortable lead in the Wild Card standings.

The last series was a three game sweep of the Rays, as this showed the world who young pitchers Tommy Hunter and Derrick Holland were. The Rays will get a second shot at Hunter and will avoid facing Holland and Kevin Milwood, which could play in their favor.

The Rays have the second best home record in the bigs, behind the Yankees with a 40-20 record, which is needed to counter-act their terrible road record of 25-35.

The Rays offense seems to be clicking as BJ Upton and Pat Burrell have figured out how to hit again, and the starting pitching has pitched well at home all year.

Carl Crawford and Jason Bartlett are playing like MVP candidates and will need to continue to get on base so that Longoria, Zobrist, and Pena can continue to drive in runs. This will be the key for the Rays in the series because with two rookie pitchers, base runners causing distractions is critical.

Also, getting to the bullpen is critical as the Rangers are prone to melt downs, no need to remind them of that terrible first game against the Red Sox. Although they are sixth in the AL in bullpen ERA they have the least amount of innings pitched. Without being tested for long stretches of time who knows how they would react.

Lets take a look at the pitching matchups:

Nippert vs. Kazmir

Nippert is 4-1 with a 3.52 ERA. He's been going back and forth between starting and the bullpen, and has pitched well against good competition. He has pitched against Boston twice and allowed only three runs in his 11.1 innings pitched. He has a great WHIP of 1.28. He has yet to face the Rays but his ERA on the road is vastly different than that at home (1.76 vs. 4.60).

Kazmir is 7-7 with a 6.36 ERA. It seems as if he is turning a corner as four of his last five starts have been quality starts. He's faced Texas once this year getting the loss but yielding a 1.80 ERA. Against Texas last year he was 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA. The bad news for Kazmir is that the Rangers are 25-18 against left handed pitching.

Prediction: Rays 7 Rangers 4

Hunter vs. Garza

Tommy Hunter might be the hottest pitcher in the major leagues. For the season he is 6-2 with a 2.34 ERA but in two of his last four starts he has gotten a little roughed up but not too bad. He baffled the Rays in his 5.1 innings of work and a .158 batting average against. However Upton and Crawford had two of the three hits against him and he cannot allow them to get on base.

Matt Garza has been inconsistent all year and has a 7-8 record with a 3.73 ERA. He is third in the league with 61 walks. Although he has struggled with command on the mound, he has allowed more than three runs only once in his last seven starts. That start he was sick and facing the Angels. However, his start against Texas was terrible allowing five runs in five innings. At the Trop his ERA is a cool 3.21.

Prediction: Rangers 3 Rays 2

Feldman vs. Price

Scott Feldman, another one of the Rangers young pitchers has a 12-4 record and a 4.06 ERA. He has not pitched well against good hitting teams giving up four or more runs to the Twins, Tigers, and Angels in his last 10 starts. However in his start against Tampa he pitched six innings allowing only one earned run. He also pitches better on the road with a 3.50 ERA and eight wins. He allowed only three hits to the Rays.

David Price has been beyond brilliant at home 2.82 ERA. His start against Texas was forgettable allowing six runs in 1.1 innings pitched. So something has to give here. Overall he is 6-5 with a 5.03 ERA. As his track record shows he should pitch well at home no matter the opponent and he has outdueled both Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia this year so you never know what you will get with Price.

Prediction: Rays 7 Rangers 3

This is a critical series for both teams as they vie for that wild card spot. The Rays play all the teams they need to play to get that wild card spot.

The Rangers now, the Red Sox six more times and the Yankees eight more times. If the Rays can do some damage and take advantage whenever the Red Sox or Rangers play tough competition they will find themselves right back in the playoffs.

As bad as they have played they are still only three games off the mark.

Just When You Thought The Rays Were Done

Jonathan Slotter — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:16:52 -0400

The Rays had just lost two of three to the Yankees, they were 7.5 games out of first and five games out of the Wild Card. Buster Olney of ESPN said that the Rays were now sellers in the market because they would have to make an improbable climb. He even talked about the Rays possibly trading Carl Crawford to save money.

The Rays aren't irrational, Buster, sorry.

What a difference a week makes. The Rays got a little booster shot at the end of last week (playing the Royals) and then took two of two against the Red Sox at home, where the Rays are 13-2 against the Red Sox in the last two years at the Trop.

Now the Yankees and Red Sox play each other in a four game series and The Rays could realistically end up only three games out of a playoff spot, if they take care of business against the Mariners (I expect two out of three, a loss to either Rowland-Smith or Felix Hernandez).

However if the Red Sox win three of four then the Rays would only be three games out of first place and the wild card. If the Yankees win three of four the Rays could be leading the wild card.

This looks a lot like last year, except the Rays aren't leading the East or the Wild Card. But in terms of winning series everyone expected them to lose, and just when everyone thought the Rays would turn into the Devil Rays, they never did.

This team is a year older, hungry, healthy, young, athletic, and moving in the right direction. Joe Maddon switched the lineups around as Jason Bartlett is leading off instead of BJ Upton and now Upton is batting somewhere between seventh and ninth.

This move has helped spark a slumping offense. David Price is lights out at home with a 4-1 record and a 2.67 ERA. Scott Kazmir has looked excellent in his last two starts, facing some true aces (CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke) and will face Rowland-Smith on Sunday who has no-hit stuff.

Everything seems to be falling into place for the Rays who finished with a 6-3 home stand and will now look to keep up the strong play on the road where they have been playing better and better. They will need to get as many wins against the Mariners as possible before they head to LA to play the Angels to wrap up the six game road stretch before heading home for nine more.

Watch out Sox and Yanks, you are in for another dog-fight.

Tampa Bay Rays To Square Of With New York Yankees In Key AL East Series

Jonathan Slotter — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 16:26:11 -0400

A Look At This Year's Series Competition:

The series between the Yankees and Rays is tied at 4-4 this season. The first series was in Tampa early in the season (April 13-15) and the Yanks took two of three from the Rays. The lone win for the Rays came against Chien-Ming Wang and we all know about his struggles this year.

Afterwards, in May, the Rays took a two-game mini-sweep of the Yanks in the new Yankee Stadium. Carlos Pena hit a game-winning home run in the 10th to win the game for the Rays; and then Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria went back-to-back with home runs against Mariano Rivera in the ninth to cap a 8-6 win.

A month later the Yanks took two of three from the Rays in a very close Bronx series. All three games were decided by two runs or less. Grant Balfour gave up three runs in the bottom of the eighth in one game and that capped a Yankees come-from-behind victory.

Inside the Numbers:

Here is where the teams rank in respective categories in the AL:

AVG | R | HR | E | SP ERA Total | RP ERA Total

NYY 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 10

TB 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 2

As you can see, the numbers are very close for each team. Due to a recent slump, the Rays offensive-numbers are way down now and the Yankees surge has propelled them to the top.

Anyway you look at it, there will be runs scored and the games should be very close just like they have been all year (except for the 15-5 TB win over Wang).

Looking Ahead to This Series:

The Yankees are playing some of their best baseball of the year right now. They have only lost one time since the All-Star break and almost came back and beat the A’s yesterday.

The Rays are playing is a bit inconsistent. They lost four of seven this week, but are 6-4 since the All-Star break.

As the Yankees offense is surging, the Rays is tremendously falling and has spiraled down to third in runs scored after they held the lead for most of the year.

Tampa's offense is averaging about one run in each of their games this week. The Rays sit 6.5 games back of the first-place Yankees and four games back of the Red Sox in the Wild Card race.

Predicted Pitching Matchups:

Burnett(9-4) vs. Shields(6-6)

After a rocky start to the season, A.J. Burnett has fared incredibly well. He posted a 2.10 ERA in June and has a 3.08 ERA so far in July. But, this is what you get with A.J. Burnett—sometimes brilliance, sometimes disaster. He’s pitched two games against the Rays this year and is 1-0, with a 3.21 ERA and Tampa is only hitting .188 against him.

In terms of consistency, Shields has been the Rays best pitcher this year. After giving up a season-worst seven runs to the Royals, he pitched a gem against the White Sox going 6.2 innings, allowing two runs on four hits. He has not faced the Yankees this year but dominated them last year, with a 1.77 ERA in 20.1 innings pitched.

Prediction: Even though Burnett has been pitching well, his name isn’t “Big Game James” for nothing. It should be a low scoring affair and recently the Rays have been getting wins in close games, so look for them to edge this one out in a 4-3 or 3-2 manner.

Sabathia (10-6) vs. Kazmir (4-6)

Sabathia has been rock solid all year, living up to the hype so far. He has a 3.67 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. This season he only has one start against the Rays and was tagged with the loss as he gave up four earned in eight innings. He was out-dueled by David Price.

Scott Kazmir has had the worst season of his career by far and was victimized by Mark Burehle's perfect game in his last outing. He hasn’t pitched well since coming off the DL and still seems to be suffering from pain in his forearm. I’m not sure that he will make this start, however he won his game against the Yankees earlier this year giving up three runs in 6.2 innings.

Prediction: This game could get ugly. The Yankees will tag Kaz early and often as he still looks to get back to form. It will be a five or six-run win for the Yanks, like 8-2.

Chamberlin (6-2) vs. Garza (7-7)

Joba has been excellent this season for the Yankees since moving to the starting role. He has posted a 3.74 ERA in the month of July and has only given up two runs in his last two starts. In his only start against the Rays he gave up three runs in six innings.

Matt Garza, much like Shields, has pitched much better than the record indicates. He has been a little inconsistent but overall has a 3.68 ERA. July sure hasn’t been too kind to him as he is a 4.62 ERA for this month. Perhaps he can build off his last start, which was a complete game against the Jays. He’s pitched well against the Yanks in two starts, posting a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings pitched with a .209 average against.

Prediction: Rays win this one in another close pitchers duel. Garza pitches well against the Yankees historically and the Rays have hit Joba well in his career. I’ll go with 4-2 Rays.

The series looks to be a great one as both teams are jockeying for position in the AL East. This is an extremely important series for the Rays because they need to gain ground against the Yankees and the Red Sox, and have to win these head-to-head duels.

Tampa Bay needs to start building momentum now in order to carry it throughout the rest of the year, and New York is going to need all the wins it can get because they can’t seem to beat the Red Sox.

This series should have a different and very important fell to it. It's like playoff time in Tampa Bay.

This is what post-season baseball should look like.

Stop With All the Nonsense, Don't Trade Scott Kazmir

Jonathan Slotter — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 01:07:08 -0400

So I wrote an article about possible trade talks with the Indians and Angels about shipping Scott Kazmir. The Rays are in serious pursuit of Cliff Lee, who is having another fantastic season for the Indians. After thinking about it for a while I think the Rays just need to shelve Kazmir for the rest of the season.

It is quite clear that Kazmir is hurt. He was tightening his forearm the whole game against the White Sox, but he is still trying to play through it. Because of him trying to be "tough," he might be leading the Rays into a huge mistake.

Let's look at some stats for Kazmir, and also remember that he is only 25-years-old. He has been the ace, the face of the franchise along with Carl Crawford for so long, how could the Rays give up on him now? Anyway, to the stats:

3.90 lifetime ERA

51-43 record (on some TERRIBLE Devil Rays' teams)

239 strikeouts in 2007

Has decreases his walk total tremendously from his rookie season. Went from 100 to 70.

Career 1.39 WHIP

7.3 hits per nine innings last year

A .220 average against last year.

These numbers are ridiculous. Lee is in the prime of his career, Kazmir has yet to get there. Lee is 30-years-old, so he might only have three or four years of quality starts left. Kazmir, with his talent, could give them double that. At 25 most pitchers are still learning the game so cut Kaz some slack.

So this brings the question, what to do with Kaz? Put him on the DL, where he belongs. He's not helping the team, or himself, by going out there hurt every game he pitches. The Rays have depth at the starting pitching spot. They could call up either Andy Sonnanstine, who has big-game pitching experience, or rookie Wade Davis who has filthy stuff and a 3.22 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in triple-A.

Everyone is freaking out because the Rays are in the pennant chase again, and they have a serious chance to repeat. However, the Rays ARE NOT the Yankees or the Red Sox. They do not need to make moves on impulse to fill needs in the roster.

The Rays are still young, and they shouldn't sacrifice anything in the future for now, whenever they can have the best of both worlds.

Don't get me wrong, I think Cliff Lee is good, Cy Young-worthy again, but the Rays have their own Cy Young candidate, who just needs to be healthy and nourished. And how can you resist this kind of advertising?

The Rays Own Roy Halladay's Soul

Jonathan Slotter — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 22:43:29 -0400

So I was talking with my friend tonight, right after Roy Halladay failed to get a win against the Rays for the third consecutive time within the last month. He didn't get the loss in this one unlike the other two and he pitched very well (1ER in 9 innings), but no matter what he can't beat the Rays.

Over the past two years he has fared quite poorly against the Rays in comparison to other teams, especially in the AL East, lets look at some splits

NYY 6-1/2.74

BOS 4-2/2.27

LAA 3-0/2.74

TEX 1-2/3.6

TAM 2-5/3.86

The only other team even close is the Rangers, and that is in half as many innings than what he has done against the Rays. He's only pitched 25 innings against the Rangers and 49 against the Rays, so this is better sampling of what he has done.

Its hard to comprehend why he has such poor outings against the Rays. I think it all traces back to the stat that the Rays have the highest pitches against per inning than anyone else in the league. Even though they have some free swingers, the Rays make pitchers work and always seem to do this against Halladay.

I do realize 3.86 isn't too shabby, it's actually quite amazing. But it's about a whole run higher than his ERA in the past two years which was 2.78 in 2008 and 2.73 this year.

My friend doesn't think that this is owning someone's soul, but I beg to differ. The stats themselves prove it. Even though 3.86 doesn't look like soul owning, I think in comparison to what he has done, especially against the better teams, it is. What do you think?

Scott Kazmir Exiting, Victor Martinez Entering?

Jonathan Slotter — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 10:39:50 -0400

Congratulations Tampa Bay Rays, the day after Mark Buehrle throws a perfect game against you, you now get to face Roy Halladay next!

A day after the most depressing, devastating, and any other bad word that you can use for the atrocity that was yesterday, the Rays appear to be in line to make some moves. The rumor has it Scott Kazmir will be dealt to the Angels for some prospects, the Rays would then use this cap space to enter the Halladay sweep stakes or get Cliff Lee or Victor Martinez from the Indians.

Here is my take on some of the trades that could possibly go down.

Roy Halladay

Cons: Unless you trade for Roy Halladay like right now so you don't have to face him tonight, I suggest the Rays don't do this one. They would have to deal some big names in their farm system, possibly Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Rashard Eldridge. This would be devastating, and to only have him for two years. I don't think it's worth it.

The Rays need some sort of safety net to ensure that if things fall through with their current starting pitching, Davis would be ready to go. I don't think the Rays would deal Price, but I'm sure the Jays would ask for him.

Pros: Do I really need to explain the Pro's? He's the best pitcher in baseball, gives the Rays the most dominant 1-2 punch in the Majors—maybe outside of the Giants—and would out them in the race for the pennant for the two years he would be here. If the Rays feel they only have two more years of chances to get back to the World Series because of salary issues, then go for it.

Cliff Lee

More of the same cons and pros here with Cliff Lee.

They would have to give an arm and a leg. However, Lee would probably cost less. He is also younger, giving him more of a chance to stay with the Rays. If the Rays have to deal their untouchables, I would say do it for Lee and not Halladay. He ensures success now and for the future.

Victor Martinez

Cons: This deal is a little more intriguing, but I would still like the Rays to get a right fielder with this money. It's more of a need than catcher, and changing catchers to me is always something that can mess with pitching chemistry, especially midseason when they don't have a spring training to get ready.

He is still expensive, although probably a lot less expensive than either Halladay and Lee. He is 30, which is, I believe, a pretty old age for a catcher. He might have a year or two left of his hitting statistics. Few catchers are good hitters for such a long time (Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza being some lone exceptions).

Pros: He offers great hitting to the lineup, batting .289 with 14 home runs and 62 RBI's. Apparently the Rays' offense isn't as good as it was earlier this season because they have looked pretty bad in recent weeks, not scoring more than four runs in nine of their past 11 games. Culminating in, well you know.

He offers protection to Longoria in the lineup, because people are realizing Pena can't hit, although he is somewhat clutch. He offers flexibility because he can play first base and give Pena the day off when there is a lefty on the mound and Navarro can go back to catching.

The lineup of Upton, Crawford, Longoria, Martinez, Pena, Zobrist, Burrell, the Gabes, and Bartlett is pretty devastating and would be a big help to a struggling hitting team.

Because there have been no specifics about either trade, I'm not sure what the Rays would have to give up in order to get him, and I'm not sure he is worth some of the untouchables in the farm system.

If he is around to stay for the long haul, then I think acquiring Victor Martinez makes the most sense for the Rays.

Rays and White Sox Battle in Playoff Type Atmosphere

Jonathan Slotter — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 15:42:37 -0400

Welcome back Evan Longoria. After struggling since mid May, Evan came back to life against the Kansas City Royals. Although it wasn't pretty, the Rays mustered three come back wins and got solid pitching performances from everyone but James Shields.

The Sox are coming off of winning two of three against the Orioles, and Jose Contreras continued to struggle.

Ever since coming back to the team Scott Posednik has been a lightning rod at the top of their lineup, hitting .307 and giving Chicago speed, where it is severely lacking. Also the Sox are getting good play from their rookie, Gordan Beckham, who continues to improve throughout the year.

Chicago took three of four from Tampa at the Trop in early April when Tampa was playing through perhaps its worse stretch of baseball. If Tampa is going to have any success this week against Chicago they will have to keep Chicago in the ballpark, especially Jermaine Dye (hitting .395 with 6 HRs in his last 22 games) and hit left handed pitching, especially Mark Buehrle, whom the Rays have had moderate success against.

Here are the pitching matchups for the week:

Price (3-3 4.70) vs. Floyd (7-6 4.44)

Will the real David Price please stand up? Price is either phenomenal or dismal. So far this year he has out-pitched Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia, but has failed to go five innings four times in nine starts. However, his outing against Toronto was probably his best of the year.

The Sox have won six of Floyd's last eight starts, and his ERA has fallen significantly after his terrible May. However, he’s given up five earned runs in his last two starts.

Niemann (8-4 3.73) vs. Richard (3-3 5.42)

Jeff Niemann has been the second best surprise this year for the Rays, behind Zobrist, and has looked excellent of late. In his last 11 starts he has only given up more than three runs once, and has also pitched two complete game shutouts.

Richard hasn’t fared well, only pitching 33 innings in his last eight starts, giving up 29 runs. If the Rays get on him quick they could hurt the bullpen significantly.

Shields (6-6 3.75) vs. Danks (8-6 3.98)

Coming off perhaps his worst start, Shields has still been one of the most consistent pitchers for the Rays all year. It was the third time he had failed to go six innings in a start all year. Although, he got roughed up against the White Sox in his first meeting.

Danks’ last two starts haven’t been too great but overall he has been pretty consistent. Being a lefty will help against the Rays and his first outing proved that, though he will need to cut down on the walks.

Kazmir (4-5 6.62) vs. Buehrle (10-3 3.52)

A battle of prominent lefties, and Kazmir looks to carry momentum from the Royals start. He looked excellent with a fastball that hit 93-95 consistently and also went six innings. He still is walking too many though. In the last three years he has a 3.34 ERA against the White Sox.

Buehrle has looked excellent all year, although he hasn’t pitched as well in June or July as he did in April and May. However, with a excellent second half he could be in the Cy Young debate.

Predictions

The Sox have not fared well against the East (7-10) and the Rays are a different team then the beginning of the year, but so are the Sox. Both teams are playing really well, and I see a 2-2 split in this series.

The Rays have struggled to hit of late, but will always make the pitcher work. The Sox rely on the long ball and have patient hitters which could spell trouble for Price. The pitching matchups of Danks-Shields and Kazmir-Buehrle should be a lot of fun to watch.

Despite BJ’s hot June, he has fallen off again in July only hitting .236. He is going to have to pick it up if the Rays want any shot of keeping pace with the Red Sox and Yankees. Also Longoria is going to have to keep up the production as he did against the Royals.

This will be a fun series to watch, and even though there will be good pitching I expect to see quite a few home runs.

AL East a Three Horse Race: What To Look Forward To in the Second Half

Jonathan Slotter — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:41:02 -0400

The Rays closed the second half with a good week, going 4-2 against the Jays and the A's.

Despite the 4-2 record, the Rays let one slip away Sunday, as they took a 3-0 lead into the seventh inning and the stellar bullpen showed a second straight rocky outing.

Perhaps the break was needed.

Another disappointing facet of the Rays' losses was that they only gained one game against the Yankees after they were swept by the Angels. Now the Rays sit 3.5 behind the Yankees and 6.5 behind the Red Sox.

Here are some thing to look forward too:

Despite being 6.5 games behind the Red Sox, here is some good news for the Rays, especially right after the All-Star break. Since June 14, the Red Sox have only played two series against teams with a winning record. Even though the Rays caught a hot streak, they just couldn't gain any ground against the Sox.

However, to close the season, Boston has 18 series against teams with winning records. This should shape much of the season, and allow the Rays to at least gain some ground.

Not to mention the head to head battles of the two teams.

As for the Yankees, they have always given the Rays trouble in head to head matchups, but they are a team that is inconsistent. They have 14 series against teams with winning records, and a date in St. Petersburg at the end of the season that could determine the wild card in the AL.

Lets look in depth at all three teams and where they stand in AL Rankings.

runs/home runs/hits/batting average/ops

Boston 3/ 4/ 7/ 7/ 3

Tampa Bay 2/ 3/ 4/ 4/ 2

New York 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 1

It is insane how close these three teams are in hitting. Boston clearly last (but not doing too shabby), and New York and Tampa know how to score runs. Boston's stats might be down a little because of David Ortiz's slump, but he can't do as bad as he did in the first half.

Because the hitting is so close, pitching and defense might be the deciding factor in which two teams come out of the division.

Starter ERA/ Relief ERA/ Errors/ Fielding %

Boston 5/ 1/ 8/ 5/

Tampa Bay 9/ 2/ 6/ 9/

New York 12/ 9/ 10/ 7/

As you can see, the Rays and Red Sox have a definite advantage over the Yankees in pitching.

The Yankees are scary because they are old. Burnett has never been consistent, they don't have a lot of bullpen depth, but they do have a true star in CC Sabathia.

The Red Sox have tons of pitching depth, and are geared towards a postseason run. They have the bullpen to do it as well, being the number one rated bullpen in the AL.

Papelbon is a true closer who is pretty much lights out.

The Rays, after a terrible start have regained their pitching ways of last year.

Scott Kazmir can't be as bad as he was in the first half, and they also, like the Red Sox, have plenty of depth in the rotation and bullpen. The bullpen has been lights out since April, and other than last night JP Howell has been untouchable.

So where does that leave us?

I believe Boston is the definite favorite, and should win the AL East, barring some injury of some sort. They have pieces to make a trade at the deadline to make their team better, and a great farm system if people do get hurt.

Tampa Bay would be my choice to get out of the Wild Card in a tight one.

They play well against the AL East, they rely on more than home runs to win ball games, have a deep rotation with a shut down bullpen. Also because of the youth I don't see any injuries down the home stretch.

Which is what I worry about with the Yankees.

They are old, have bullpen problems, and an offense that relies on home runs. They have played well recently, despite being swept, but I don't think they will do anything at the deadline to make their team significantly better, and because of that I do not think they can outlast the Rays until the end.

Despite the actual outcome of what happens, it will be a fun and exciting race all the way through September.

Welcome Pat Burrell, It's About Time You Joined the Party

Jonathan Slotter — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 23:29:24 -0400

After a terrible week for the Rays, getting swept by the Rangers and losing four in a row, the Rays got what they needed—a day off and the Yankees and Red Sox lost.

(Just a side note, I still blame the losses on those patriotic hats—when the Rays wore them for Memorial Day, they lost to the Indians in that historic meltdown).

Things started to look up, maybe try to regain some momentum before the All-Star break.

Or not.

The Rays' bats were asleep again all night long. They had two hits in the first nine innings, none of which came off of the bat of BJ Upton, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, or Carlos Pena.

James Shields pitched another great game, and the Rays wasted it again. He went seven innings, one run four strikeouts.

Just another typical Shields outing.

The turning point in the game was whenever the Rays were for sure about to lose it. Man on second and a base hit up the middle.

Here we go again.

Then BJ Upton guns out Aaron Hill on a laser throw from center. Didn't even bounce it in. That will be the No. 1 web gem.

The game continued for another four scoreless innings. The 11th inning would bring up Longoria, Pena, and Ben Zobrist. Two All-Stars, and another possible All-Star.

The Rays should be able to at least muster a hit, right?

Oh, they had other ideas. Longoria goes down, Pena flies out, and Zobrist down 0-2 real quickly.

Another squandered opportunity.

Then Zobrist fouls off some pitches, takes a few more, and earns a walk. Good at bat Zobrist, next up Pat Burrell.

Pat Burrell has been the second most disappointing acquisition in the offseason behind Milton Bradley, hitting under .220, three home runs, and 23 RBI.

So much for Pat the Bat.

Anyway, Zobrist steals second first pitch. First time the Rays have had a runner in scoring position since, I'm not quite sure. Next pitch, a home run, left center for Pat Burrell.

Now, it might be kind of silly to put such an emphasis on this game; it is of course just one game out of 162. But, I think this game is sort of a season turning or defining one.

Or at least it could be.

The reason I think this is, hopefully, is because Pat Burrell is starting to feel more comfortable with the Rays. He hasn't shown much of breaking out of his slump, but maybe this can be a point where he gets that done.

I know they say he is a slow starter, but come on!

I don't expect him to hit 30 home runs this year. But if he could get his average up to .270 and hit 15 or so in the second half, it would be greatly appreciated.

The other, more important, thing that I take out of this game is some of that late inning toughness the Rays showed last year. One of the biggest differences between last year and this year is the Rays' record in one run games, even though this wasn't a one run game.

It was a playoff type game.

If the Rays can start putting more of these wins together, these will put them in the AL East race. These wins take plate discipline, mental toughness, good bullpen, and no errors in the field.

This has been lacking throughout the whole year this year, at least in these close games, and if the Rays can start winning these games then watch out Yankees, Red Sox.

Stephen Jackson for MVP? Closer Than You Think

Jonathan Slotter — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 17:46:27 -0400

Stephen Jackson will garner votes for MVP this year, pending the Warriors aren’t hit with massive injuries. Are you calling me crazy? Well, let's check some things out.

MVPs are the leaders of their respective teams. They make the key plays, play the stingiest defense, and create opportunities for their teammates throughout the season, while carrying the offensive load.

Let's look at Jackson’s last year and compare it with the likes of Kobe, LeBron, Dwyane, and others.

Points/ Rebounds/ Assists/ Steals/ Minutes/ FT %/ FG %/ 3P%

Stephen Jackson: 20.7/5.1/6.5/1.5/39.6/.826/.414/.338

LeBron James: 28.4/7.6/7.2/1.69/37.7/.780/.489/ .344

Dwyane Wade: 30.2/5.0/7.5/2.19/38.6/.765/.495/.317

Kobe Bryant: 26.8/5.2/4.9/1.46/36.1/.856/.467/.351

Chris Paul: 22.8/5.5/11.0/2.77/38.5/.868/.503/.364

If you look closely there are four people who averaged 20 points, six assists, and five rebounds, and Kobe Bryant is the odd man out. Now, I know Jackson’s stats last season weren’t that close to these four MVP-caliber seasons.

But let's take a step forward, shall we?

Next season should be a better year for the Warriors. Jackson’s field goal percentage ought to be better along with assists and rebounds.

Why is that, you ask?

His assists will go up because he has more weapons on the offensive end. Even though they did lead the league in points last season, they will have had this time to gel and knock shots down more consistently.

The addition of Stephen Curry, the return of Monta Ellis, and the Warriors being healthy should keep double teams off of Jackson so he can shoot a better percentage and have more weapons around him to rack up some more assists.

Rebounds will go up because the Warriors can’t play defense worse than they did last season. More shots made equals fewer rebounds. Coupled with this, the Warriors led the league in blocks, so they probably had the least amount of defensive rebounds in the league percentage-wise. With an improved team, fewer shots will be made thus there will be more opportunity for rebounds.

Now, I don’t foresee Jackson’s points going up, but I do feel a 21/7/7 line is within reach. If he had stats like that, on a playoff team, don’t you think that would be enough to put him in the discussion for MVP?

Also noteworthy is his defense and ability to hit big shots and play big in big games. In his lone healthy game against the Lakers he tallied 24 points, nine assists, and six rebounds.

But that wasn’t what was big in his game—it was on the other end where he guarded Kobe Bryant for 36 minutes. Kobe had 30 points, but was 9-22 from the field and was given some questionable free throws.

In a game against "King James," Jackson had 24 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds. He guarded the King for 41 minutes and held him to 10-24 shooting—another poor outing for his opponent.

Probably his second best game last season, behind his triple-double against the Suns, was against the Celtics.

The Celtics had lost only two games all year, and Stephen Jackson single-handedly led the Warriors to the win. He recorded 28 points and seven rebounds with Corey Maggette and Monta Ellis out. Also, he held Paul Pierce to 21 points.

He clearly plays best in big games against the league's biggest stars, playing 45 minutes of defense and offense to carry the load for the Warriors.

Let's do a little more research. With Shaq moving to Cleveland, LeBron’s points and rebounds are probably going to go down. His assists will probably increase by one per game. If LeBron averages 25/8/5.5, is that really a big difference from Jackson’s 21/7/7?

Kobe will also probably score less with Ron Ron in town. Also, he is learning to trust his teammates. Look for him to average about 25 points per game next season, too. Is his 25/5/4 really better than 21/7/7?

Stephen Jackson will most definitely not win the MVP next year. However, if the Warriors improve and get to the playoffs as a six seed, perhaps he can get in talks like Dwyane Wade did last year for just putting up gaudy numbers. Regardless, he should get some votes and some recognition, and hopefully will make his first appearance in the All-Star game.

No Market for Allen Iverson? Are the Charlotte Bobcats Insane?

Jonathan Slotter — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:04:55 -0400

Ah basketball free agent season. You smell money shifting hands, athletes moving their oversized suits from one city to another, and brings new hope to struggling franchises.

Some key moves have already been made to help their respective teams: Hedo to the Blazers (unless you are Rudy Fenandez), Charlie Villenueva and Ben Gordon to the Pistons, Ron Artest to the Lakers, and Trevor Ariza to the Rockets.

Others are on the verge of making signings like Sheed to the Celtics. Then there are other teams who are confusing.

One of these teams is the Bobcats. Now I'm not a huge Bobcat fan or follower, but I feel I can shed some words of wisdom on this issue.

The Bobcats seem on the verge of a breakout season. They have some good talent, Emeka Okeafor, Gerald Wallace, DJ Augestine, and Raymond Felton. They also have some quality role players, who have already reached their peak Boris Diaw and Raja Bell.

They were the only team to figure the Lakers last year, inexplicably (I guess Raja is still in Kobe's head) and are team that could easily make the playoffs in the East.

It seems they are one piece away from doing this. What do they lack? As I scroll through the standings last year I notice this 93.6, what is that?

No, it's not the Cavs points allowed per game, that would be somewhere in the 91 range, it was the Bobcats points per game last year. 93.6! The Warriors got that in the third quarter consistently last year. Alaska has seen hotter days than 93.6.

So with this lack of scoring it seems the Bobcats would be poised to get a scorer this offseason. Now this offseason isn't filled with as much talent as next year, and it seems the best players have already signed, or on the verge of signing.

So who does this leave in the free agent pool? Only the second leading scorer, average wise, in ALL of basketball, EVER.

Now, he is 33 this year, but showed no signs of slowing down. He can still hit tough jump shots, he still is one of the fastest players in the league, and will probably give you 25 points a game, six assists, 2.5 steals, and 30-40 minutes a game.

Not to mention the Bobcats could use someone that creates shots, and can take big shots at the end of games.

Even though the Bobcats have nice pieces they don't have people who create. Wallace needs someone to set him up, Okafor is a nice piece down low but can't carry a team. Clearly.

Because his market is so slim they can probably get him for a reduced price. He and Larry Brown work well together, he won't be taking anyone's spot really. There would be less minutes for Felton, Augestine, and Bell but that's not asking that much I do not believe.

He would be the best pickup Charlotte could get to help their team for the upcoming year. And would be the best fit for AI, who still thinks he can play and contribute to a team as a starter and a star. Much better than the Grizzlies, which I don't get why he wants to go there.

Pitching Log-Jam: Will The Rays Make a Move Before the Deadline?

Jonathan Slotter — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:13:39 -0400

The Tampa Bay Rays have been surging through the AL East standings of late, winners of eight of their last 10 and went 19-7 in the month of June. Now the question remains are they peaking to early or playing up to their potential? And if they are peaking too early how do they become better.

Analysts on ESPN, Fox Sports, and Sports Illustrated believe the Rays do not have enough to compete with Boston and New York, barring a move before the trade deadline. It is suspected both Boston and New York will get better, thus the Rays also need to get better.

There are two potential problem spots for the Rays, right field and relief pitching.

Three weeks ago relief pitching would have been the obvious spot for this trade but now it seems as if those problems have been corrected, moving up to fifth in the MLB in reliever ERA. JP Howell seems to be fitting into the closer role and relievers such as Choate and Bradford are coming off of the DL. Also the acquisition of Winston Abreu makes this a unlikely place the Rays would go for help.

The "Gabe Platoon" in right field (Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross) is a glaring weakness for the Rays. Although they have been hitting better of late, Gross hitting .282 and Kapler had a stretch of four home runs in four consecutive games, this cannot hold for the Rays. Despite this soft spot in right field the Rays are the best offense in the MLB scoring 20 more runs than the next closest club, the New York Yankees.

Some possible names being tossed around for relief pitching are Kerry Wood or Chad Qualls. Wood has a 5.27 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Those numbers would be second worst for the Rays bullpen, only Chad Bradford has a worse ERA, and he's only made three appearances.

Chad Qualls has a much better stat line, 4.26 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Still these would rank high in the Rays bullpen. Out of the two though I think the Rays would prefer Chad Qualls. He doesn't prefer to be a closer, he adds depth and is consistent and without much injury. Because he is not a big name the Diamondbacks might not ask for as much and the Rays would probably have to give up some sort of bat (Matt Joyce, Joe Dillon, or others from the farm team).

Also Qualls would prefer less money, which means that the Rays would have a better chance of keeping him around for seasons to come. Therefore if the Rays go the reliever route Qualls is definitely the answer. If the Rays do go for Qualls they will probably still have money and quality trade pieces to go for a right fielder.

At right field the market is not as big because so many teams are still in contention. The most obvious choice was Mark Derosa but he has already moved on to the Cardinals, so what other names are out there? Vernon Wells, Matt Holliday, or Jose Guillen all could be on the block before long.

The problem with Holliday and Guillen are that their contracts are worth well over 10 million so more or less they would be a rental for the Rays. And to get these guys they would most likely be parting with major prospects in their farm system. Wells on the other hand is struggling this year, contract is affordable, and the Jays are falling fast from the race.

There are also talks about wanting to move his contract before the year is up. Would the Jays be willing to move Wells to a division rival? Doubtful, but we can always hope, eh? (I hope you liked my Canadian touch) Vernon Wells would be a perfect fit for the Rays, he could bat sixth of seventh so not a lot of pressure on him and still have plenty of opportunities to produce runs as all the people before him are tearing it up, except Pat Burrell.

Not to mention the Rays would have the best outfield in the league, Wells, Crawford, Upton, and the ball might not ever touch the ground in the outfield again.

In order to get Wells the Rays would definitely have to part with a big name or two from their farm system. The Jays have two good pitchers, an alright one in Richmond, but after that are struggling. The Rays might have just the potion in Andy Sonnanstine or Wade Davis. Coupling one of these with another hitter like Matt Joyce could be a deal the Jays could not refuse.

If it was not for the emergence of Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis would be in the big leagues. He is almost as talented as Price and would be an excellent fit for any ball club as he is probably big league ready right now. Lucky for the Rays they have some depth in this starting pitching and have excellent parts to deal to get the pieces they need.

If the Rays are to make a deal these are the parts they would move and those are the people they would most likely try to get. I don't see the Rays going for a Holliday or Guillen, so Wells could be a perfect fit. However if the Jays stay in the race I highly doubt they would even think of dealing him, not matter how much he is struggling.

If the Rays don't make a move I think they will be just fine. Unlike last year I don't see any huge names like Sabathia that would change the entire landscape of a division. The Pirates have already traded their best players so no Nady or Bay to the Yanks and Red Sox this year.

I don't see the Red Sox or Yankees getting that much better post the trading deadline this year so the Rays should be able to maintain just as they did last year without a move. Especially since Pat Burrell is a huge bust, the Rays probably won't want to move any of their top prospects for a rental bust. With that said the Rays are still first in hitting, fifth in bullpen, and going to improve in starting pitching. They will have enough to make a run again.

Dear Diary Issue One: Rays-Blue Jays, 6-30-09

Jonathan Slotter — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 22:26:40 -0400

The Rays are coming off a huge victory against the best pitcher in the MLB last night—how will they one up that? Hopefully, with another win against the Jays. It's Matt Garza vs. Scott Richmond in a pretty good pitchers show down.

Here is my diary of the game; all times are in Central

6:07: Why aren’t there more people at the Jays game? This team scores a lot of runs and is in contention. Weird. Also, the Rays are doing a special on Gabe Gross. Strange—they could do it over anyone else and it would be more entertaining.

6:10: First pitch swinging, the Bossman Junior homers. With swagger and a smirk he trots around the bases. It’s a good start for the Rays. I love when that happens.

6:13: Willy Aybar is playing for Evan. I don’t like this move. This is a critical AL East series, and the Rays need every win against division foes they can get.

6:17 BJ walks out to center field, no beer. That’s good news. Yesterday, two female fans threw a beer at him for catching a liner off the bat of Marco Scuatro. Bossman! Stop catching everything you see! (just kidding).

6:23 Matt Garza continues his dominance over the Jays with a 1-2-3 inning. How did he lose two games last season against them when he only allowed two runs in five games? Mind Boggling.

6:26 Ben Zobrist starts off the inning with a single—another good start to the inning. Ben Zobrist needs to get back on track, even though he was bound to cool off.

6:31 What is Ben Zobrist thinking? When was the last time I ever saw someone get picked off at second? I don’t even know. Way to kill a rally.

6:32 Behind home plate there is a “Great Canadian Bucket Sale” ad. I’ll ask a few questions here:

a) Why is it there and b) Is this Great Sale really so lucrative that they can buy ad space behind home plate, or is it just that cheap?

6:45 Matt Garza’s first spot of trouble. He hangs a slider, gives up a base hit to Adam Lind—runners at first and third. Garza has been good at minimizing damage—a strike out would be huge here.

6:53 Did Carl Crawford find some undetected steroids or something? Two home runs in two days—his eighth of the year. 2-1 Rays.

6:56 I wish Boston would play someone with a winning record. Beating Baltimore 4-0. Seems as if they have played sub-.500 teams for at least a month.

6:58 Rays announcers, make note about how Toronto’s Raul Chavez was once a short stop before being converted to a catcher. I would like to see the light-footed Chavez work his magic at short stop.

7:01 Jim Hickey visits the mound. It’s nice to see Garza respond positively. Occasionally Garza just blows him off. Apparently it didn’t work. There's a pitch right down the middle, and Aaron Hill ropes it to left. Two on, one out.

7:08 Garza gets out of the jam. No damage done. Luckily, Vernon Wells has been disappointing this year.

7:11 I guess Zobrist got the message and criticism in my preview— he ropes another single into right. Lets not get picked off at second this time, buddy.

7:14 Definite web gem by Aaron Hill right there. He dove to his left, did a barrel roll and threw out Gross at first.

7:21 Another 1-2-3 inning for Garza—Maybe he’s back on track after having to work a little in the second.

7:24 If there was an award for biggest fall off by an all star from the following year, Dioner Navarro would have to win. He's batting .214 this year. Maybe Maddon should put in the Cuban refugee (Hernandez). However, Richmond was scared enough of that and walked him in five pitches.

7:35 Who is slower—Burrell or Chavez? I mean, Aybar wasn’t exactly quick to first with that throw.

7:42 BJ Upton saves a run by getting to a gapper before it hits the wall. Runners on second and third. This brings up the ever so clutch (cough cough) Vernon Wells, who flies out to left center. Sigh of relief. He’s 0-for-2 with runners in scoring position today. He should be moved down further in the lineup.

7:46 Evan Long…. I mean Willy Aybar jacks a home run to right center. I think Aybar has an OPS over 1000 when subbing for Longoria. It fails to make sense. Rays 3, Jays 1.

7:55 Jason Bartlett breaks out of the things that made him so good earlier in the year, chasing three straight pitches outside of the strike zone. He leaves two on.

8:01 Gabe Gross might be 0-for-2, but he throws out Adam Lind, who tried to get greedy by stretching a single into a double. TTwo outs in the sixth. If only I could see BJ throw out someone.

8:04 More rain in the Baltimore area. It's been like monsoon season there. Now, if only it will delay the game too much. It's in the top of the fifth, which means they would have to reschedule it. Come on rain!!

8:20 Seventh inning ends. Two well pitched games by both starters. Richmond goes seven strong, with three runs, six hits, and seven strikeouts. Garza goes seven innings, with seven hits, one run, two walks, and three strikeouts.

Both pitched well enough to win. Garza continues his dominance over the Jays, probably bumping up his 0.47 ERA against the Jays.

8:25 Pena’s bunts are scaring Carlson, the new Jays pitcher away. Two straight balls. Pena should learn to perfect that bunt down the third baseline. But I'll take the double down the first base line. Runners on second and third, with no outs.

Gaston’s decision to bring in the lefty backfires.

8:30 I wonder who Joe Maddon will select from his bullpen by committee. Balfour has been warming up, and I don’t think he will use a lefty because the Jays hit so well against lefties—even though Howell is an anomaly and pitches better against righties.

8:31 Another anomaly takes place. Pat Burrell gets intentionally walked to get to Gabe Gross. The second worst offseason move (Milton Bradley is the worst) still has some respect, I guess.

Evan Longoria pinch hits behind him for Gross. Oh, Joe Maddon you never fail to make me laugh—going for the throat here.

8:39 WOW! Am I shocked. Garza enters the eighth inning, even though he has thrown over 100 pitches. He walks the first batter on five pitches. Time to go to the bullpen.

8:40 Keys to success. The Jays have only gotten the leadoff man on twice tonight. I wonder what team gets the leadoff man on the most.

8:46 Mariners tie the Yankees in the fifth. I’m surprised the Mariners have scored three runs, but its great news for the Rays.

8:50 WOO! Randy Choate gets a big strikeout of Adam Lind with two on and one out.

9:10 Any Many Miney Howell. JP Howell will be saving this game in the Rays bullpen by commission.

9:17 RAYS WIN! Howell gets the save and is looking ever more comfortable in the closer roll.

Garza continues his excellent streak, with two runs in his last 15 innings. The Rays now have their longest winning streak of the year at seven. Also, the Rays are winning close games where they don’t score much, which brings back memories of last year.

Tomorrow, they go for the sweep against another tough pitcher Ricky Romero.

Rays Look to Carry Momentum into Canada, Texas

Jonathan Slotter — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 17:32:24 -0400

The Rays won five of six last week, returned to full strength with Kazmir, Bartlett, Burrell, Bradford, and Shouse getting off of the DL. They look to continue their hot streaks when they head north to face Roy Halladay and the Toronto Blue Jays.

It will be Halladay's first start since coming off the of the DL, but I would not suspect to to see any weakness from front-runner for the Cy Young. He faces a rookie, Jeff Niemann, who has pitched well of late but is still a rookie. This series in general is filled with great pitching matchups as Matt Garza takes on Scott Richmond and James Shields goes against up and coming pitcher Ricky Romero.

Halladay has practically been untouchable this year with a 10-1 record and a 2.53 ERA. The two outings before he got hurt in the Florida game were both complete games. Scary. Not to mention he has only allowed 14 runs in his last nine starts. His ERA is much higher at home, a 3.00 vs. only a 1.88 on the road. Niemann on the other hand has been just as hot: The Rays have won eight of his last nine starts.

Matt Garza had perhaps his best start of the year last week, going eight innings allowing only one run against a potent Phillies lineup. He looks to be on track, so I expect a good game from him.

Richmond, on the other hand, seems to be cooling off a bit. Since his spectacular April, his ERA has been above four. However he has had two good starts with a bad start against the Nationals in which he got rained on.

Perhaps the best pitching matchup of the series is Romero and Shields. Romero has been inconsistent this year, but recently has been on fire. He has pitched at least seven innings in four of his last five starts, with the Jays winning also winning four out of five (the loss was to Texas 1-0). Shields has been Mr. Consistent, as he has just been solid all year round. He has gone six innings in all but two of his starts.

I see the Rays winning two of these games. Last year Matt Garza, beat Halladay twice, and the Rays have a knack for beating good pitching (Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Josh Johnson). This is because the Rays lead the MLB in opposing pitches per innings, always working the opposing pitchers.

Garza is starting to pitch better, and I look for this to continue, as well as Shields to be solid. The first two games will most likely be a split so it will come down to the best game of the series to decide it.

B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, and Evan Longoria all hit above .400 for the Rays last week, as Ben Zobrist cooled off a little. Look for the one-two-three hitters in the Rays lineup to keep it up, as they show no signs of slowing down. Also the Rays became the fastest team to get 100 home runs and 100 steals in a season.

As for the Rangers series, this could very easily be a sweep. The pitching matchups favor the Rays greatly, Kazmir vs. Holland, Price vs. Hunter, and Niemann vs. Padilla. The Rangers might win the last one, but are always capable of going off at any time.

They could jump on Price early as well. Hopefully, he can build off his last start. I don't care if he walks five guys as long as we get the W.

This could be a good week for the Rays, I see them going 4-2, earning a 2-1 series win in each. If this holds true they could gain some ground on the Yankees and Red Sox, putting themselves in excellent shape before the All-Star game.

Kaz's First Start Since the DL

Jonathan Slotter — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 11:28:04 -0400

Here is the stat line for Scott Kazmir's return to the Rays rotation. Five innings, two runs, four hits, one walk, five strikeouts, and 92 pitches.

Kazmir started off pretty slow and rough last night. Allowing two runs in his three two innings. It could have been much worse. There was a stretch during the second inning where the Marlins tee'd off on him, hitting three straight balls on the buttons. Luckily only one of them was damaging, as it was a double, but it didn't lead to any runs.

After the second inning, however, he looked pretty decent, after the home run ball to Carroll (the ninth hitter in the Marlins lineup) he allowed only one more hit and struck out four of his five after.

The turning point in the game for Kazmir was whenever Hanley Rameriz, the hottest hitter for the Marlins who had constantly been clutch this whole series, came up to the plate with one man on and no outs after Kazmir had just given up a home run.

First pitch swinging Rameriz fouls out to Pena and from then on everything just seemed to roll.

Another good sign is that Kazmir threw 61 strikes, which is about two-thirds of his pitches. If he can keep this up he can go deeper into the ball games than he is normally accustomed too. We will get a better gage on this in his next start when Joe Maddon might let him pitch more than 92 pitches.

For this outing I give Kazmir a B-, he could've done better, but a pretty solid first start coming off of the DL. The Rays really need him to turn it around if they want any chance of pushing for a playoff spot.

Behind Door Number Five Is...

Jonathan Slotter — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:12:52 -0400

The burning question for the Tampa Bay Rays management coming up in the next week or so is what to do with the rotation.

Scott Kazmir will have had a few games pitched in the minors under his rehab stint and will be ready to give it another try this season. That leaves an odd man out between David Price, Andy Sonnanstine, and Jeff Niemann.

After another lackluster start Thursday night, Andy Sonnanstine has really hurt his stock this year. After winning 13 games a year ago, his ERA is over six this year and won't get any better as he gave up four runs in five innings against the Phillies. He has pitched better of late, however having over a 4.50 ERA still is not going to cut it in a tight pennant race.

David Price has been inconsistent, at best. In his first three starts he couldn't go more than five innings, but didn't give up many runs. Recently he has focused on hitting the strike zone, but is getting pounded because of it. Price needs more time to figure out how to pitch in the big leagues, refine his changeup, and work on just becoming a big league pitcher.

Jeff Niemann has been a brilliant surprise for the Rays of late. He pitched a complete game one-hitter earlier this year, and has won eight of his last nine starts for the Rays. The one loss was against Cleveland in a rain-shortened three inning outing where he only gave up one run. In this nine start span he has lowered his ERA from 5.68 to 4.23, with his only real bad starting being his first one.

There are two options for the Rays. I cannot think of a valid reason to demote Niemann to the minors or bullpen. He has pitched too well in too many big games for the Rays this season. This leaves us with Price or Sonnanstine.

Price was so good in the Rays bullpen last year, and it would probably make the most sense to put him there because he has two excellent pitches and needs to work on the changeup and curveball more. However, I think that the bullpen hinders his development and would not be good for him in the long run.

Sonnanstine would be even a harder fit in the bullpen because he throws so many balls that he would not be good in tight situations. He would be someone who just works long relief and that's it, unlike Price who could come in at any situation.

What I would do is put Sonnanstine in the long relief and let Price continue his development. It makes the most logical sense and maximizes the arms you have right now.

However, what I think is going to happen is that the Rays will stick with Sonnanstine, based on a flawed 13-win season last year and send Niemann down to the minors. I hope this is not the case because with how he has pitched of late he would be really useful in the backside of the season.

A decision won't be made though for sure until Kazmir looks like he is back to his All-Star form. Lucky for the Rays, having starting pitching depth usually is never a bad thing.

Crawford To Hawks: What Are the Warriors Thinking?

Jonathan Slotter — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:17:04 -0400

Disclaimer: Before I start on this, lets get this clear, I am in no way disappointed, upset, or beside myself that the Warriors traded Jamal Crawford. I am actually very happy to get him and his salary off of the team.

What does boggle my mind is the lack of aggressiveness by the Warriors front office. They traded Crawford for two backup point guards, when they could have gotten more.

One thing the Warriors lack coming off the bench is an athletic guard that is a threat to score. Outside of Maggette they have Tufiaf, a great defender, Belinelli, a play-maker, and Morrow, who led the NBA in three-point shooting last season. However they pose no threat with their second string.

What they should've got is the Hawks sixth man, Flip Murray. He is perfect for the Warriors offense, can score 30 on any given night, would give the bench a huge boost, and would fill Crawford's absence without the selfish mentality. Seems pretty perfect to me.

Instead, the Warriors settled for Acie Law and Speedy Claxton. Both of these players are not good, and will probably not see anytime on the court, or at least they wouldn't on my team. They will sit next to Marcus Williams in their warm-ups.

As I wrote in my last article, this draft is stacked with point guard talent, people who can score and play-making ability. Why not pick up a player like Johnny Flynn or Desmond Jennings to take the back-up point guard spot? Both of these people can also play along side Ellis and give the Warriors some offense, and play-making ability. Not to mention crazy athleticism.

Instead, it looks like the Warriors will draft another big, Jordan Hill. Now most people are high on Jordan Hill; he likes to run, and would give the Warriors a "post-presence." In reality the Warriors a) don't need a post presence and b) have a lot of depth at the four and five spots, with Wright and Randolph being drafted in the last few years. Why add another project at that spot when you need help in the back court?

These questions likely will be answered throughout the season, but the way it is looking right now Cap'n Jack is going to have to handle the ball for most of the games like he did last year.

If the Warriors can compete, it looks like he will be an All-Star candidate, as only three players averaged 20 ppg, six assists and five rebounds. The other two: LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.