Bleacher Report - Articles by Dan Stalcup

The Doctor Is In: Curing the Redskins' Ailments

Dan Stalcup — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:28:31 -0400

Clearly, something is wrong with the Washington Redskins. They just lost to the Chiefs to give Kansas City only its third win in 31 games. In six straight games against winless teams to start the season, they've struggled to a 2-4 record. The only two wins were by two points and three points against St. Louis and Tampa Bay, respectively. Nowhere near awe-inspiring numbers.

So what is ailing the 'Skins? Unsurprisingly, a lot of things. From the top down and the bottom up, it seems almost everything that could've gone wrong has.

You can call me Dr. Football; I have my stethoscope out. After a thorough check-up, here are the ten biggest problems, in order of importance, and my prescription to solve them.

1. Terrible team management and vision

Symptoms: Silly personnel decisions, poor analysis of talent and player value, no discernable plan or internal development.

Cure: Fire Vinny Cerrato, hire a thick-skinned general manager who won't listen to Daniel Snyder.

Second opinion: Fire Vinny Cerrato, hire a seasoned coach-GM like Bill Cowher.

Prognosis: The root of all of the Redskin's problems is poor decision-making by owner Daniel Snyder. To Snyder's merit, he'll spend top dollar for who he believes is the best man for a job. To Snyder's malignment, he rarely chooses the right guy.

The Redskins need a man with a plan. Snyder's solution seems usually to go for the biggest name. For coaching and administration, he'll sometimes go after whoever will let him make all the big personnel decisions.

Vinny Cerrato is a partner-in-crime with Snyder. He needs to go. Snyder will be around for awhile, but he needs to realize, after a decade of aimless ownership on the football field, that there are others better-suited to make football decisions.

It's time for Snyder to completely, 100% relinquish general management duties. Get someone known for building franchises, like one of the Polians , as Michael Wilbon suggests. Get the best, wisest, bravest man—definitely not the one who will bow to Snyder. Snyder should offer whoever is the right man for the job as big a paycheck as that person needs to become fully committed to Washington, even if it's $30+ million. Then, give him a blank check to run the team from a personnel perspective, no questions asked.

Allow him to develop his own plan, hire whatever scouts and talent evaluators he wants, and let him go to work. Snyder can focus his energies on promoting the team—as he's done a stellar job with thus far—and keeping coaches and players happy.

Once that happens—and not before—the Redskins will begin to expunge the toxins ruining their team. The stupid contracts, from the Jason Taylor tragedy to the grossly excessive pay hike DeAngelo Hall received just this summer, will expire and the high value talent will start building up. The rest of the teams' symptoms will gradually disappear.

2. Little chemistry

Symptoms: Lethargic play, sloppy mistakes, inability to achieve momentum, little team improvement.

Cure: Bring in a more experienced, motivating coach.

Supplement: Clear out the excess of nebulous assistant coaches.

Prognosis: I really, really like Jim Zorn. He's low key in all the right ways, which serves as a nice antidote to Snyder as the identity of the franchise. He's humble but has a quiet streak of confidence. He's smart and open-minded and has faith in his players.

He's not what the Redskins need right now, though. The Redskins are not established and talented enough to have a green, Zorn-type coach right now. They need a coach with an already determined identity in the NFL. Someone who knows exactly what his way to run the system is; Zorn is not that. Zorn is a trial-by-fire, living-on-a-prayer coach.

Some day, Zorn could be a good or even great NFL coach. Right now, he's not the right person for the Redskins. The ownership probably decided this a couple weeks into the season, and have already taken playcalling duties from Zorn .

I think Zorn's humility and player-driven attitude works great when the team is clicking, but fails to hold up in tough times. Once the players start getting down on themselves, it becomes hard for Zorn or anyone to pick them back up. A hardened coach like a Gruden is the better option when rebuilding is on the line.

Even better would be someone who is more like Joe Gibbs—a coach whose specialty is unity and motivation. Look at the two most recent playoff runs: 2005 and 2007. Both saw the Redskins storming back, arm in arm, when odds seemed against them.

I hope (but doubt) that Zorn will stick with the team. I think he's a great personality and face for the team, that he could be a first-rate offensive coordinator, that Campbell or whatever quarterback ends up leading the offense would benefit from having a really good quarterbacks specialist like Zorn.

Another problem for the Redskins is that they have so many assistant head coaches, coordinators, and consultants that I imagine it's difficult for any coordination or cooperation to occur. The idiotic recent hiring of Sherm Lewis as "another set of eyes" is exactly what I'm talking about. How can players and coaches know who to report to? How can coaches be expected to know what decisions to make and what their roles are with so many people trying to run the show?

Some of the coaches need to go, and I say start with the Sherms (Lewis and current OC Smith) and make Zorn the coordinator and the QB's coach.

3. Flimsy offensive line

Symtpoms: Old, injury-prone offensive line with little depth

Cure: The 2010 NFL Draft

Prognosis: Chris Samuels and a few of the older, better linemen are down for the count. The floodgates—rickety at best, pre-injury—have completely busted open as the Redskins have failed to do much of anything on offense against anyone.

The problem is, all of the NFL-level starters are old and falling apart. Samuels, arguably the best player on the Redskins' roster, might be finished for his career. The outlook is really ugly.

There's little left to do except start getting young, good prospects. I don't care if the team uses all five of its picks in the draft on offensive linemen—in fact, I encourage it —I just want to see big action to get talented players as soon as possible.

Offensive linemen are notoriously difficult to nab during the season or during free agency as most level-headed management will pay top dollar to keep promising offensive linemen on its team. (As we've established, the Redskins do not have level-headed management.) The best players available would be over-the-hill types with big names who wanted bigger contracts than they're worth. These are exactly the types of players the Redskins need to avoid, and the kind that Snyder gravitates towards.

Should a few of the best young free agent linemen fall through the re-signing process, it'd be an incredible stroke of luck for the Redskins. They'd be tempted to go for some of the older players, but if someone under 29 with good starting experience becomes available, the Skins should absolutely make a move.

Coaching shouldn't be a problem, at least at first. I'm not sure how much longer Joe Bugel will put up with Snyder's antics, or how much juice he has left in him, but he's among the best and most respected offensive line coaches in the league.

4. Very little quarterback development

Symptoms: Young quarterback playing worse each game, little confidence in QB from coaching staff, fan intolerance of sloppy mistakes.

If you trust the immune system: Patience in Jason Campbell

Transplant option: Trade for Brady Quinn

Second opinion: Free agency

Outside chance for miracule cure: The draft

Prognosis: Jason Campbell is blowing his last chance to settle in. He was just benched against KC in the second half in favor of the ancient Todd Collins, giving his job security after this season a pretty bleak outlook. If he doesn't return, he could either land with a struggling team as a starter with one last chance to become a major presence in the NFL, or he could go to a more prominent team as a backup. I think the latter is more likely.

Personally, I like the idea of trading him and a bit more bait for Brady Quinn who is being exiled from Cleveland. I'd go short of offering up a first rounder, but I think Quinn could really fit Washington well. He'd be an immediate threat with an enormous ceiling and plenty of time to prove it. The tools are there, too: He's got an accurate, short-to-medium range arm. Campbell is the inverse of that, a relatively inaccurate cannon.

Quinn would fit in well with the west coast-style offense the Redskins have in place right now and likely the rest of the season. Assuming Zorn doesn't survive to next season (pretty safe assumption, knowing ol' Danny), Quinn might have an entirely new offense next season, but he's versatile enough that he'd likely fit.

This trade is an outside chance, especially if the Redskins decline to part with a first-rounder, which is the right move. Inside sources have also hinted the Redskins aren't particularly interested (though the Chiefs disaster may change that outlook). If it could happen otherwise, I think it'd be a brilliant curveball that's one of few things that could spark the team for the rest of the season.

But assuming a trade of that nature doesn't go down, the next best bet is picking up a free agent of some sort. You could snag Orton, Pennington, Culpepper, or T. Jackson. Each of these four have shown some promise, and it'd be nice to have a veteran like Culpepper.

I'd like to avoid heading to the draft, but most recent results have been that the best college QB's, like Jimmy Clausen, are ready to take on the NFL. Look at Ryan, Flacco, and newcomers like Sanchez, who seem to be on their way to 'marquee' or at least 'reliable.' Of course, the Redskins could always lay an egg with a bad pick, and dig the franchise deeper into a hole.

The absolute best scenario is for Campbell to show big improvement in the second half, to develop a better internal clock and accuracy, and to sign a long-term contract. Given the team's turmoil, especially the past few weeks, and the perceived lack of confidence in Campbell from ownership and fans, it seems like that window of opportunity is dwindling.

5. Underperforming WR's

Symptoms: Poor performance from quarterback, dropped passes, young receivers lacking confidence.

Cure: Keep throwing it to the young guys.

Prognosis: It's very easy to declare the crop of receiver-types from the 2008 draft as complete busts. Look at the three second-round picks: Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, Fred Davis. This supposed receiver corps of the future had combined for a whopping 17 catches total going into the Kansas City game (and probably about 17 drops, too).

This was supposed to be their breakout year, especially Thomas and Kelly. So far, it hasn't amounted to much. From what I've seen of the games, I believe that it's a combination of silly mistakes and low confidence on the receivers' part, compounded by Jason Campbell giving up on them early in favor of the usual Moss-Randle El-Cooley set of targets.

Kelly and Thomas have all the physical gifts needed to be good starting receivers. They just haven't transitioned well to the pro game yet. I believe they're growing into their roles, but far too slowly. The quarterback needs keep throwing to them. Let them develop a rhythm.

Though this might seem counterproductive at first to go to the worse receivers more, it will have a variety of positive effects. It lets the receivers develop confidence and get over their mistakes and drops. It will also loosen the coverage on the old reliables as defenses learn that the team hasn't given up on their receiving prospects. Finally, it'll send a signal to young players in general that the team values their development.

6. Dropped interceptions

Symptoms: Failure to turn good coverage and broken-up passes into turnovers

Cure: Bring in a veteran leader as an assistant coach or a backup player

Prognosis: If you want to see the effect a good leader can have on his unit, take a gander at London Fletcher-Baker. Not only will he be in contention to get his long overdue Pro Bowl selection, he's made the players around him better with good work ethic, good attitude, good leadership, and being a role model.

The Redskins lack a player like that. Sean Taylor would probably be evolving into that at this point in his career if he were still around, but fans are all too aware of his tragic absence.

Right now, you see players like Carlos Rogers generally playing very good coverage and making the occasional highly athletic play, but he can never quite seal the deal. Fred Smoot and DeAngelo Hall are too excitable, naive, and prone to blown plays to be that stable leader. Reed Doughty fits the bill a little bit, but has a ways to go before he becomes the 'wise old man' like Fletcher.

What the Redskins need is someone like Darrell Green as an assistant coach or, less likely, some veteran free agent—former 'Skin Walt Harris from San Francisco?—to be that hard-working role model. Bring a bit of calmness and confidence to a unit that seems so close to turning the corner and being one of the best, deepest secondaries in the league.

7. Pathetic punt returning

Symptoms: One-to-four yard returns, every time.

Cure: Let Santana return.

Prognosis: Antwaan Randle-El has run out of chances to be the return man he was in Pittsburgh. Every punt, one of two things happens. A fair catch, or Randle-El catching the ball, attempting a juke or two, and gaining maybe a couple of yards after lots of movement and indecision.

Washington actually has a great alternate option in Santana Moss who almost always makes something out of his punt returns. And, strangely, he became a good punt returner after becoming a lead receiver, basically the opposite of the Devin Hester effect. Moss says he wants to return, too.

The coaches don't like letting Santana take the punts, presumably because they don't want their deep threat taking hits. I understand this, but with the emergence of the new set of receiving threats (see #4), the likely reward outweighs the possible risk. As a coach, I'd much rather have the chance of breaking a big punt return every time than always play it safe with the receiver.

8. Average or worse specialists

Symptoms: Limited flexibility and reliability on special teams.

Cure: Stick with the patchwork guys until long term solutions become available, then snag them.

Prognosis: Before the season, I would have put this issue much higher. Honestly, how much fear do Hunter Smith and Shaun Suisham inspire in opponents?

The crazy thing is, special teams coach Danny Smith has done a very good job with these two so far this season. Hunter the Punter, as fans call him, will likely be best remembered for the fake punt he converted into a touchdown earlier this year.

But his punting has been remarkably efficient. He lacks the raw booting power of most NFL punters, with a gross average punt of 43.5 yards. However, his placement has been very good. The 4.0 return yards/punt number he has put up is tops in the NFC, which boosts his net punting average to well above average in the NFC. In thirteen punts, he's pinned teams inside the 20 five times. Smith is out on injury right now, but will be back soon.

Suisham hasn't been tested very much—only six kicks, none longer than 42 yards—but has been perfect on field goals and extra points so far. He's one of only a few remaining in the NFL to not miss a kick yet. There's nothing more that you can ask for.

As reliable as these players have been in 2009, they're still only temporary solutions. Suisham in seasons past has had poor accuracy and range, to the point where he's been called one of the worst players in the NFL . Smith lacks the raw skills to play in the NFL as well. Neither are long term solutions. The Redskins can play the patchwork game but only until an established kicker and and punter, neither older than 36, hit the market. Then, pay top dollar for them.

9. Angry fans

Symptoms: Further diminished team confidence and chemistry, empty seats, lots of booing.

Cure: A couple of big wins.

Prognosis: Fans have booed the Redskins, and it has hurt the Redskins' confidence. Those are the facts, and from that fans logically should make the decision that they shouldn't boo.

The truth of the matter is something different, though. Can you blame any Redskins fan for being frustrated, furious, indignant? For ten years, they've put up with being the offseason champions but barely mediocre on the football field. They put their hard-earned money into the team. They bleed burgundy and bold. Usually, they're among the best, most loving, most enthusiastic fans in the nation.

Enough struggle is enough, though. The team that never goes through a rebuilding process longer than it takes some Pro Bowler to sign a bloated contract. The Redskins try to be competitive every year, and most years they aren't. It can wear down a fan.

A few wins later, it's an entirely different story. Once it appears the team is on the track to being successful and being a playoff contender, the fans will bounce back quicker than super ball. At heart, Redskins fans are loyal and vocal; but even the strongest loyalty bond can be broken.

Unlike Eagles fans most years, the Redskins really have had patience. They've tried everything: support, anger, patience, apathy, bewilderment . They deserve better.

10. Aging D-line

Symtpoms: Injuries, diminishing returns on sacks and overall defense.

Cure: Keep planting good seeds.

Prognosis: One year ago, this would be near the top of the list, but just look at all of the progress that has been made: Chris Wilson, Lorenzo Alexander, Kedric Golston, and Anthony Montgomery have all started to emerge as potentially starter-quality players. Just as fans could have hoped for, the development process has been pretty natural and productive under aging veterans Phillip Daniels, Cornelius Griffin, and Andre Carter—all of whom are 30 or older and are either leveling out or decreasing in performance.

The signing of Albert Haynesworth to the biggest defensive player contract ever was probably an overpayment, but Haynesworth is absolutely a huge benefit to the line. He's young enough to have plenty of good years in him and comes in already one of the best linemen in the league. He's made sacks, but even moreso allowed others to cause pressure because he absorbs offensive linemen.

Picks like Jeremy Jarmon and Brian Orakpo who are already good and could become great are great steps in the right direction, too. Orakpo especially could become a pro-bowler.

It really seems like the Redskins have made big steps in the right direction on this side of the trenches. Now, they just need to keep it up, keep adding depth, and re-sign the young players as the old players begin to fade away.

Rhino Relief: Rinehart to Start For Redskins Against Detroit, and What It Means

Dan Stalcup — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 13:30:14 -0400

I've been repeating it like a chorus since the offseason ended: The Redskins are very close to being a regularly competitive team. They have pretty decent talent and depth at most positions. The one glaring hole is depth in the O-line. With a starting squad that's 80 percent injury-prone or old, the lack of depth is a big problem.

The first stumble occurred last weekend when right guard Randy Thomas injured himself for the rest of the season. The two choices to replace him were second-year prospect Chad Rinehart and hometown favorite Will Montgomery.

Rinehart, a third-round draft pick last season, ranks behind only Stephon Heyer as the most promising O-line prospect on the roster.

Montgomery is somewhat of a fan favorite because he played high school in Fairfax, Va., not far from the stadium, and because he went to Virginia Tech—which has a large fan base in and around Washington.

Still, Rinehart's the better pick. He has a much higher ceiling and has played respectably—though not great—when he's seen playing time in the past.

So what does all of this mean for the O-line? How can fans expect the unit to perform against the Lions this Sunday?

Fortunately for the Redskins, the Lions' defensive line is battling nagging injuries. Starting defensive tackles Gradie Jackson and Sammy Hill are both listed as probable for Sunday's game, and backup defensive end Cliff Avril is doubtful.

Despite these injuries, the Lions have produced at a pretty state. So far, they've tied for ninth in the NFC in sacks, which is where the unit finished in 2008. Though this number is above the median, it's still not an incredible number: three sacks in two games.

I'd give the advantage to the Redskins in this situation. The Skins' O-line still has enough gas in its tank to perform well. It's not for another three or four games that you have to worry about the so-called "dirtbags" really succumbing to aches and pains like they did last year.

With Chris Samuels anchoring the unit at left tackle and the rest of the usual suspects ready to silence the doubters, expect the Redskins to hold the advantage against the Lions' defensive line.

The trendy pick is to for the Lions to end their losing streak against the Redskins, who seemed incapable of finishing offensive drives last Sunday versus the floundering Rams.

Based on the battles in the trenches, the Redskins have a big advantage, so I think Washington will walk away with a victory.

The Illusion of the Redskins' O-Line

Dan Stalcup — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 22:49:31 -0400

As I watched the Redskins-Giants game, I couldn't help but be a bit pleased with the offensive line. Campbell had decent time. The running game wasn't great, but the protection wasn't particularly porous either. I had abysmal expectations and the results ranged from average to good.

But still something nagged at me: that any crispness will disappear by the midpoint of the season.

It happened last year, and it'll happen again this year. The Redskins' offensive line will play well and convince everyone the team is a contender. Then the veterans will start getting tired and hurt, and the team will quickly fall apart.

Take a look at all of the starting linemen, and none of them are bad players. They're just old and injury prone. The team's depth and youth at O-line was the biggest hole on the team last year - even worse than the defensive line - and went criminally untreated during the offseason. Compare the starters to their backups listed on the depth chart:

Left tackle: Chris Samuels, age 32

Easily the best and most stable lineman, even Samuels is starting to get old. He's been playing for 10 years, and bodies can't survive that long.

Backup: D'Anthony Batiste.

Left guard: Derrick Dockery, age 29

Dockery is a bit overrated and penalty-prone, but he's at least the one lineman whom I trust surviving the whole season. He once started 29 games in a row.

Backup: Edwin Williams.

Center: Casey Rabach, age 31

He's getting old and he's injury prone. Otherwise, Rabach is a pretty solid starter. He's at the top of the list on starters unlikely to survive the season unscathed.

Backup: Will Montgomery.

Right guard: Randy Thomas, age 33

Thomas is a former pro-bowler, but the oldest "Dirtbag" on the line. There's no way he can be expected to survive an entire 16 games at full strength.

Backup: Chad Rinehart -- the best backup on the O-line.

Right tackle: Stephon Heyer, age 25

The only starter remotely prospect-ish, and really one of a few on the entire Redskins roster with a promising long-term future, Heyer is playing better with each passing week. However, he's an injury concern.

Backup: Mike Williams.

Aside from Rinehart, they're incredibly weak in depth on the line and have too many fragile veterans starting. The Redskins will give the perception of being a fundamentally strong team for the first half of the season, and then collapse again.

Get some real depth and some true O-line prospects, Dan Snyder, and your team will turn from pretender to contender.

Ladell Betts: Overrated Or Over-Hated?

Dan Stalcup — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 23:57:58 -0400

Redskins pre-season talk has focused on Marcus Mason and Anthony Aldridge, both of whom fought an uphill battle trying to make the Redskins final roster; Mason, after three years, finally secured an unlikely spot despite concerns he's too same-ish to the other tailbacks on the team.

Discussion has also centered around Clinton Portis because of concern that he's on his last legs and because, well, he's Clinton Portis. He's the face of the franchise.

Finally, a few people have been wondering if Rock Cartwright is really worth a spot on the roster just for being in the top half of the NFL in return yards when he doesn't do much on offense. He's a role model and work ethic leader, so he was a lock to make the team.

But what about that other tailback on the roster, No. 2 tailback Ladell Betts?

He just turned thirty a few days ago, so now is as good a time as any to look back at Betts' career, evaluate his performance, and perhaps decide what the team can do to improve his production.

The No. 1 criticism against Betts is that his production has trailed off considerably since 2006, when he rushed for 1,154 yards and signed a juicy 5-year contract. It seems as if he's coasting, collecting pay stubs while Portis takes the vast majority of rushing attempts and hits from locomotive linebackers.

Certainly, 2006 was by far his best year. He averaged an excellent 4.7 yards/carry, a number that obliterates the merely-average 3.6 and 3.4 in seasons since then. In fact, his performance in 2006 had most people labelling him a starter-quality back. He certainly could have found a job as the number one and made slightly more money.

While that raises warning flags, it's far from proof he's a coaster. It's not just his unexpected re-sign in Washington in 2006 but his less dynamic performance since then that have critics condemning him for playing for the paycheck and not the Lombardi Trophy.

In the two seasons since then, Betts has rushed for 541 yards, less than half the production than he had in 2006 alone. After four trips to the end zone in '06, he's had just one per year since then.

People read too much into just these numbers, though. Although this doesn't quite explain his Herculean 4.7 yards/carry, a number nearly as good as Adrian Peterson had in 2008, I think that Betts benefited from one of the Redskins best offensive lines of the past decade.

It's strange to think the Redskins could have had a loaded line in '06. After all, the team tied worst record of the Daniel Snyder era with a pathetic 5-11 final mark. The offense was strangely productive, though. The team ranked in the top half of the league in yards per game, especially impressive when you consider that Jason Campbell played seven games as an unpolished rookie.

I give a lot of credit to that line, which not only gave Betts and Portis (4.1 yards/attempt) room to run, but gave Campbell and Brunell loads of time in the pocket. Campbell's 3.3 sack percentage and Brunell's 4.4 sack percentage were by far the lowest numbers of their careers. When Campbell played, the line allowed only seven sacks in seven games.

So, Betts' numbers were inflated by a very good O-line in 2006 and have fallen with a line that has shown signs of age since. In that way, Betts' prospects don't look especially promising in 2009. He'll be looking for blocks from a line that's crumbling from age and lack of prospects.

But to be fair to Betts, he hasn't been asked to step up to a starter role since 2006 when Portis battled injuries. When Portis is out there, fighting off any sort of aches and bruises and delivering punishing blocks, the Redskins don't particularly need Betts to do much besides convert the occasional first down.

I think it's fair to say that Betts ought to be playing better than he has been the past two years. Whether it's just a stroke of bad luck and bad blocks, an inability to develop rhythm, or perhaps even the sense of entitlement fans accuse him of having, he's not earning his contract just yet. But fans shouldn't expect him to return to his tremendous efficiency of 2006 until the front office and coaching builds an offensive line that will allow him to do so.

Every part of a football game can be better understood by looking at the battle in the trenches, and the performance of Ladell Betts is no different.

Taking Ownership: A Statistical Look at 10 Years of Daniel Snyder's Redskins

Dan Stalcup — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 10:00:47 -0400

I'm a pretty die-hard Redskins fan. I'm also an optimistic one: I like to believe the future will be brighter days for my burgundy and gold. But with Dan Snyder at the helm, sometimes it's hard to be optimistic. If you're a Redskins fan, you know exactly what I mean. He's erratic and impulsive. If you're unfamiliar with Snyder, you can read what a few others have say. Here's the thing, though: I believe Snyder is more frustrating than he is bad, because he teases us. If he brought in no-names on a shoestring budget and won the same amount of games as he has with former all-stars on a Hollywood budget, he'd be much less hated. With ten years of Snyder down, now is as good a time as any to dig deeper in to the numbers and see the shape the franchise has taken under his direction. I decided to take a look at the numbers to see just how well the Redskins have performed. By focusing on numbers and ranking, I will hopefully prove how good/bad, erratic/stable, improving/regressing the team has been. I'll also take a look at how the Redskins have performed in the wins column compared to how they've performed on offense and defense. My hope is this will allow me to take a step back and what the Redskins have done well this past decade This article is broken down in to two parts. The first takes a look at comparing the wins and losses the team has had since Snyder took the reins compared to the decade before he bought the team. The second takes a deeper look at the Redskins' performance in various team rankings under Snyder's tutelage. Warning: I'm very much an amateur at working with stats. A lot of these numbers are pretty straightforward, but I'm sure I made some rookie mistakes along the way. Feel free to point out any glaring errors I might have made. Also note that I did this just for curiosity and fun with stats. I wanted to try doing a statistical analysis of some sort, similar to the type Nathaniel Stoltz is really good at.

Begin Slideshow

A Two-Step Plan for the Redskins to Turn the Franchise Around in 2010

Dan Stalcup — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 19:56:25 -0400

I really believe that if the Redskins tune their roster a little bit and then let everything play out for a few years, the franchise will shift from mediocre-sometimes-good to good-sometimes-great.

They have a great core of young-ish talent at almost every position... almost. Which brings me to my two-step plan on how to use the 2010 draft to steer the team to greatness.

1. Keep all of their five remaining draft picks, or trade down to get even more

2. Draft at least one player in every offensive line position (LT, RT, LG, RG, C)

I look at nearly every position on the roster, and I see a glut of high-potential young players. I don't see enough of it at the most important part of the roster, though, the O-line.

You've got the aging veterans, like Randy Thomas and Chris Samuels. You've got the workhorses at the end of their prime, like Casey Rabach and Derrick Dockery. You've got one real-deal prospect, Stephon Heyer.

You've got a couple of players who have been drafted in the past year or two, but are considered mid-level prospects, like this year's fifth-round pick Cody Glenn.

And that's it. After that there are a bunch of low-level prospects, busts, and "projects."

It's not enough to build a team around. Five high-level and mid-level prospects later, though, the story's a lot different. Then you have a unit with potential to get a lot better fast, especially under an experienced offensive line coach like Joe Bugel.

Those linemen entering their twilight years as NFL players can show the whippersnappers how it's done, then leave the franchise in good hands.

And an improved offensive line has an impact on the entire time. It gives the quarterback and runners space. An improved offense puts less pressure on the defense and allows it to develop and operate properly, without quite as much pressure.

Seriously, Dan Snyder, it will work. Draft five offensive lineman. Then, if you can control your itchy trigger finger and keep the players on the team and happy, you'll start winning all sorts of games within a couple of years.

Here are a few potential objections and how I'd respond to them.

But the 2010 class looks like it might be a weak one for linemen! I've heard this argued, but I see no evidence for it. Look at the prospect rankings for the 2010 draft and compare it to the spots that linemen were taken in recent drafts, and they're not all that different. In fact, 2010 might even be slightly above average.
But the Redskins have other needs! None that are as pressing, though. With contracts ending, you never know when a hole will open up, but you can fill those with free agency. Plus, the O-line is the most important position in the game. You need a long-term plan there more than anywhere. Not patchwork
But they need experience at the line, not more prospects, because the veterans have had a lot injuries, and the O-line depth lacks experience! This is a valid point, but with Joe Bugel and other experienced linemen on the roster, players can learn fast.
But seriously, five linemen? It seems like a lot, but every part of the offensive line needs more talented depth, especially considering how injury-prone the Dirtbags seem to be.

Make it happen, Snyder and Cerrato.

Notre Dame and Rock and Roll: 7 Lessons from Rock Bands

Dan Stalcup — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 22:00:08 -0400

When you take time to think about it, it's funny how much a sporting event resembles a rock show. There's lots of noise, an incredible amount of fuss and hype. Fans have favorite performers. There's drama, ebb and flow, showmanship, and emotion poured out in front of thousands. All in a giant concrete arena. It goes without saying that some music groups and sports teams are more important and popular than others. One of the most popular teams in the history of sports media is the University of Notre Dame's football team. And, in some ways, the Fighting Irish's story is as dramatic and flashy as some great rock and roll bands' are: there are burnouts and comebacks, high points and low points, plus a certain pride and mythos. I think there is something to be learned from these parallels. In this article, I will take a look at seven lessons Notre Dame and its fans could learn from different rock and roll bands.

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The All-Time Washington Redskins All-Star Team

Dan Stalcup — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:26:01 -0400

This past decade, it's been tough to be a Redskins fan. The flow of disappointment and wasted talent seems to be unending, and the level of play is wildly erratic, but usually nets something between 6-10 and 8-8.

And so I have to resort to two things, nostalgia and optimism, to keep my spirits up. This article tackles the first of those two.

I love the Redskins' glorious and varied history. The names haven't been quite as big and flashy as any other franchise with this many rings, but that's the fun. The journeymen and blue-collar underdogs are the players that have made this team great, more often than not.

And so, it is my pleasure to present my picks for the all-time all-franchise first team on offense, defense, special teams, and coaching.

The picks are based solely on their years with the Redskins, and on a combination of sheer dominance during the player's prime and total career toughness. Since I generally believe that most athletes nowadays would absolutely tear up ye olde athletes, I've also made some slight adjustments for the era.

Offense:

QB: Sammy Baugh (1937-52)

Though Baugh is widely acknowledged as the greatest Redskin to ever play, the pick between him and Sonny Jurgensen was a tough one. Remember that part of Baugh's mystique was his dominance on every side of the ball, whereas Jurgensen was a pure QB, and a great one.

Nonetheless, Baugh gets the edge. He dominated a less pass-happy era and in an age where WR was still developing as a position. His average yards per attempt is surprisingly close to Jurgensen's, even without adjusting. He also played well for a very long time, going to the Pro Bowl at the age of 23 in 1937, but also at 37 in 1951.

RB: John Riggins (1976-79, 1981-85)

There are a lot of good-sorta-great workhorses who have played for the Redskins. Riggins, definitely great more than good, had to be the pick. A Hall of Famer, Riggo has a lot going for him, including a surprising upward statistical curve during his Redskins career.

His numbers would be even better if it wasn't for strike-shortened seasons and a 1980 contract dispute.

FB: Andy Farkas (1938-44)

The only fullback of note in Redskins history, Farkas was twice a Pro Bowler and once led the league in rushing touchdowns. He'd sometimes average 50 yds/game, which is something you never see anymore.

Then again, fullbacks are more blockers than rushers these days.

WR: Art Monk (1980-93)

Not just the greatest Redskins receiver ever, but one of the most reliable in the history of the game. Monk only went to the Pro Bowl three times, but put up numbers that wouldn't be broken until Jerry Rice hit the scene.

WR: Bobby Mitchell (1985-92)

If the Hall of Fame selection isn't enough to prove his greatness to you, here's a stat to look at: 102.6 yds/game, which is what he put up in 1962. His 16.5 career yards/rec is one of the Redskins best marks ever in that category.

WR: Charley Taylor (1964-77)

There are four great picks for three spots, so major apologies to Gary Clark. But Taylor played almost as long as Monk did, and put up numbers not too far south of Monk's. This Hall of Famer beats out the exceptional, dangerous Clark.

TE: Jerry Smith (1965-77)

Chris Cooley has a good shot at dethroning this spot in the next few years. But Smith's superior yards/rec number and longevity with the Skins give him the edge.

T: Turk Edwards (1932-40)

Another Hall of Famer for the Skins, Edwards was voted one of the top two tackles in the leagues by different sources for eight straight seasons. Granted, it was a different era—but I bet you can't name me anyone else who's ever done that. I sure can't think of anyone.

T: Joe Jacoby (1981-93)

One of the anchors for The Hogs, Jacoby is one of the best lineman to ever see play for the Redskins.

G: Russ Grimm (1981-91)

One of the legendary Hogs, Grimm was a stalwart on some of the best O-lines the Redskins ever had. He made it to the Pro Bowl four times.

G: Dick Stanfel (1956-58)

The second guard position was pretty contested, but I went with Stanfel instead of another Hog because Stanfel's ludicrous efficiency. Three years with the team, three years as the best guard in the entire league.

C: Len Hauss (1964-77)

The epitome of reliable. In his 14-year career spent entirely with the Redskins, Hauss played every game. In all but three of those seasons, he also started every game. He was also a Pro-Bowler five times, the most of any non-tackle offensive lineman in Redskins history.

Defense:

DT: Dave Butz (1975-88)

At times, he was the best D-lineman in the league. Consider 1983, when he tallied 11.5 sacks on the season and catapulted to All-Pro first team. But it's Butz' longevity with Washington that is most impressive. Assuming I'm calculating strike-shortened seasons correctly, I think he only missed one game after reaching the age of 28.

DT: Diron Talbert (1971-80)

Another Washington long-timer, Talbert played in every game of his Redskins career and, excluding his final season, started every game but one. He also made the Pro Bowl one year and narrowly missed it another.

DE: Dexter Manley (1981-89)

Defensive end has been a pretty loaded position for the Redskins throughout the years, and three players make good cases for selections. Of those three, Manley has the least accolades but was probably the best.

Despite just one Pro Bowl selection, he averaged 14.5 sacks over a four year span, including 18.5 in 1986. A highly dangerous defender.

DE: Gene Brito (1951-53, 1955-58)

Charles Mann is the "obvious" pick for his longevity, nice numbers, and numerous Pro Bowls, but Gene Brito was so great over a short span of years at DE, that he gets a razor-thin edge over Mann. In his four years primarily playing DE, he was selected as the best in the league three times and the second best other time.

He was a game-changer on every snap of his relatively short career at the position

LB: Chris Hanburger (1965-78)

The best linebacker in Redskins history by a pretty sizable margin, Hanburger was great for nearly a decade and a half, Hanburger played in nine Pro Bowls and was often regarded as one of the best linebackers in the NFL during his career.

LB: Chuck Drazenovich (1950-59)

Nabbing the second spot in one of the Redskins' best career positions, Drazenovich played highly consistently for the Redskins for 10 years, during which he landed a few All-Pro nominations and four Pro Bowls.

LB: Sam Huff (1964-67, 1969)

Though the time he spent in Washington was mostly during the decline of his career, Huff is one of the most famous faces of the franchise and was a balanced, dominant defender early in his stay in DC.

CB: Darrell Green (1983-2002)

The easiest pick on the roster.

Green, rightfully a Hall of Famer, was a paragon of character and a defensive speedster. Only Sammy Baugh tops him as the greatest Redskin to ever play, but even Baugh wasn't as beloved as Green is.

Green holds all sorts of NFL records for longevity and consistency.

CB: Pat Fischer (1968-77)

Though he's a few steps down from Green, Fischer was a great and reliable Redskin in his own right. Arriving in his prime at age 28, Fischer was immediately an impact player, even earning a first team all-pro selection in 1969.

S: Ken Houston (1973-80)

A Hall of Famer and perennial All star, Houston never had a problem dismantling offenses. He arrived in DC in his prime—though his best season was with, appropriately, Houston—and never looked back, ending his stellar career wit the Skins.

S: Sean Taylor (2004-07)

Granted, I've only been watching football for a decade. But I've never seen a safety who comes close to the hard-hitting terror that Sean Taylor was during his tragically short career.

He was a talented man who was just hitting his prime when he was shot in his home in Miami, later dying from those wounds.

Special teams:

K: Mark Mosely (1974-86)

If Darrell Green's selection as the Redskins' best CB was the easiest pick on this roster, then it only narrowly beat the kicker and punter selections. The only kicker to EVER win MVP, Moseley made 20 of 21 FG attempts in 1982, including several game-winners.

His career percentage of 66.2% of field goals made isn't quite as flashy, but his longevity in a position the Redskins are known for cycling through makes up for it.

P: Sammy Baugh (1937-52)

Though he's most famous for being a QB, Baugh's longest standing records are in punting. He remains the only player to ever lead the league in punting four years in a row, and holds the second highest career punting average among all punters ever.

Returner: Brian Mitchell (1990-99)

His total career return yards rank among the best of all time, and his punt return average of 11.0 yds and kick return average of 22.8 yds during his decade with the Skins are pretty strong.

Ultimately, Mitchell was both reliable and dangerous; both his averages and season longs stayed pretty steady throughout his career in DC, even trending upwards.

LS: Ethan Albright (2002-present)

The long-snapper is a pretty unglamorous position, but Albright is about as good at it as you can get, even being selected to the Pro Bowl in 2007 and coming close to it in 2008.

Coaching:

Head coach: Joe Gibbs (1981-92, 2004-08)

The Skins have had a lot of great people running the team. Gibbs is not only the best coach among them, but the best person. Though he's solid on the fundamentals, his strengths aren't X's and O's.

He's best as a motivator and delegator known for coaxing the best out of people in terms of skill and in terms of character. He has three rings and a bust in the Hall of Fame.

What more can you ask?

Assistant coach: Joe Bugel (1981-89, 2004-present)

He put together The Hogs, a nickname for some of the best lines to ever play for the Redskins. It's possible the Redskins wouldn't have won the two Super Bowls under Bugel's tutelage without him.

Agree with the picks? Disagree? Let me know!

UVA Women's Basketball: Looking Ahead to Next Season

Dan Stalcup — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 05:06:19 -0400

The Cavaliers had an excellent '07-'08 season, despite exiting in the second round of the NCAA's as a four seed. It was a great way to send off senior Sharnee Zoll, a senior captain and highly influential Cavalier who helped revive the program. Zoll went 29th in the WNBA draft to the LA Sparks.

The only other graduating senior is Tara McKnight, a former walk-on who was a consistent fan-favorite and three-point sharp-shooter; McKnight sunk over 54 percent of her shots from behind the arc to lead the team in three-point percentage.

Both of these players were leaders for UVA and will be sorely missed, and Zoll's 6.35 assists per game in particular helped lead the offense. Zoll, the career ACC leader in assists, is great at setting up baskets, so other Cavaliers' numbers may suffer.

Next year will be a big one for the Cavaliers. It will be a good opportunity for them to step up, as it will be an exceptionally experienced roster for the Cavaliers'.

Here's a look at how the roster will likely play out next year. The given years for the players are what they will be next year.

Probable starting five:

G—Paulisha Kellum (Jr.)

Kellum was a reliable starter in '07/'08, and will likely step up to point guard and lead the offense. She did not put up big assist numbers last season, and seemed more explosive as a scorer. But look for her assists to surge next season. Kellum has shown flashes of brilliance, such as her game-dominating 23 points at Maryland. Though she'll likely end up fourth on the team in PPG, she will probably score the team high a few times.

G—Enonge Stovall (Jr.)

Stovall was the sixth-woman for the Cavaliers, starting only seven of the 28 games she played in. Coach Debbie Ryan clearly likes her a lot, and she brings a lot of toughness to the court. Her play during the second half of the season was much improved from the first half, and she even scored double digits a few times. With Zoll's departure, Stovall will likely take the starting roll, though Britnee Millner could rotate starts with her.

F—Monica Wright (Jr.)

Wright is the best Cavalier women's basketball player, and led the team in scoring in '07-'08. She's also a persistent defender, and a great passer, with the second most assists behind Zoll. Wright will likely continue to lead the team in scoring. Despite a rough final few games of the season, Wright has generally been improving consistently. She'll turn the ball over less as she gets more experienced—her 112 on the season needs to decrease—and could push to lead the ACC in scoring.

F—Lyndra Littles (Sr.)

Littles put up startling numbers during the last five games of the '07-'08 season, averaging over 27 points and 13 rebounds during that span. At about 44 percent, she isn't quite as good an inside shooter as Aisha Mohammed, but she is tough and puts forth tremendous effort, and that gets her really far. '08-'09 could be the season where Littles really pulls things together, and approaches overall excellence on the level of Wright.

C—Aisha Mohammed (Sr.)

Mohammed averaged fewer than 26 minutes a game, the least of the starters, yet still managed to lead the team in rebounding with 9.8 per game, while putting up over 13 points per game. She could easily average a double-double next season, especially if she plays a little bit more, though I'm guessing that is for injury reasons.

Backups:

G—Britnee Millner (Sr.)

Millner is another player that could see some starting time now that Zoll has departed. She started one game in the '07-'08 season. Millner has never put up big numbers, but she's a good defender and a high energy player. Despite her being injured for part of the season, a win or two during the '07-'08 season might not have happened if it wasn't for the kick-start that Millner's court presence provided. She's a lot of fun to watch and a fan-favorite.

G—Kristen London (Sr.)

London saw about nine minutes of playing time per game in 22 court appearances. She struggled during the '08-'09 season, tallying fewer than two points and rebounds each per game, and putting up a turnover/total minutes ratio worse than many other backups. Hopefully during the '08-09 season, with a bit more court time, she can step up her play.

F—Kelly Hartig (So.)

Kelly, the tallest player on the team at 6'4", came into the '07-'08 season as a five-star recruit the Cavaliers hoped would make an immediate impact in the way Monica Wright had during the '06-'07 season. However, Hartig was still very raw, despite a few impressive moments. Hartig will almost certainly continue to improve and develop on the touch shooting and smart rebounding she has shown. By the end of the season, she will likely be seeing as much game time as any backup.

F—Jayna Hartig (So.)

Kelly's older sister, red-shirted in the '07-'08 season after an injury she described as "frustrating." J. Hartig isn't quite as big as her little sister, but will be a welcome addition to the Cavaliers' frontcourt. As a freshman in the '06-'07 season, her numbers weren't very impressive, but there's no reason why she won't drastically improve after a season of practicing, and developing familiarity with Debbie Ryan's system.

F/C—Abby Robertson (Sr.)

Standing at 6'3", Robertson is another big woman for the Cavaliers. On the court, she can often seem a bit slower and less coordinated than some of the other Virginia players. She puts up a decent shooting percentage, foul-shot percentage, and leads the team in blocks per 40 minutes. She won't be a star for the Cavaliers, but she'll continue to be a reliable and physical presence on the court.

Recruits:

Virginia's most promising potential recruit is Lynetta Kizer, who scout.com ranks as as the No. 2 recruit for the center position. This would be a huge boost for the Cavaliers, and will give the Cavaliers someone ready to fill Aisha Mohammed's shoes once she leaves. Beyond that, recruiting is still hazy for the Cavaliers. Look for an update from me once the recruiting situation becomes more clear.