Bleacher Report - Articles by Pete Misthaufen

Texas - Nebraksa: Can The Huskers Help TCU Leap to the Top?

Pete Misthaufen — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:18:32 -0500

If there is one thing Frog fans are pulling for on Saturday, it is a Nebraska upset of Texas at Cowboys stadium, located just a few miles east of TCU.

For TCU to make the BCS title game, Texas must lose in the Big 12 title game. Even then, TCU is not guaranteed a chance for the BCS title, as strange things may happen to result in a different team being No. 2 in the final BCS standings.

The Huskers are a two-touchdown underdog to the Longhorns and seemingly have no chance. Nebraska has struggled on offense all season and Texas appears fully capable of dominating Big Red on offense and defense.

However, the line has been falling as people start wondering if Texas can score enough points on the solid Nebraska defense.

The Decline of Big Red

Nebraska was one of the most dominating programs in college football when the Big 12 was formed, going to three of the first four Big 12 championship games.

From 1963 to 2003 Nebraska appeared in the AP Poll, finishing in the top 15 every year but two from 1963 to 2001.

Simply put—Nebraska was one of the true powers in college football.

In the sixth year of the Big 12, Nebraska went to the BCS title game at the Rose Bowl, even though Nebraska had not won its division or its final regular season game.

Nebraska has not had a ten win season Fank Solich was fired in 2003 for only winning ten games.

But the fall came hard. Since the 2001 season, Nebraska has not appeared in a single final AP top 15.

The Bill Callahan experiment proved a relative failure, with two losing seasons and only one shared Big 12 North title.

Now, a lot of different explanations arise for the decline of Big Red.

The firing of a ten-win coach is a prime contender.

Another possible reason relates to changes in academic standards between the Big 8 and Big 12, introduced by the insistence of Texas.

In any event, the decline has only stopped with the hire of Bo Pelini. Pelini took over last year and quickly brought some life back into Big Red, especially on defense.

Nebraska finished 21st in rushing defense and 14th in sacks in 2008.

In 2009, Nebraska regained its defensive reputation—No. 4 in Pass Efficiency Defense, No. 3 Scoring Defense, No. 15 Rushing Defense, and No. 11 Total Defense. Only one team, Texas Tech, put up more than 20 points on the Huskers.

Unfortunately for the Huskers, the offense has fallen off completely as it transitions from Callahan's pass happy offense to Pelini's more traditional ground-oriented attack

Texas Offense vs. Nebraska Defense

Texas under Colt McCoy seems to be an offensive powerhouse, but appearances can be deceiving.

Twice Texas was held under 300 yards of total offense, with two times under 350 yards.

The Longhorn pass offense has been almost pedestrian at times—held under 206 yards four times.

The Longhorns have faced only one tough defense, Oklahoma, and failed offensively in that game.

It is unlikely that things will change much against Nebraska, so we can expect somewhere in the range of 250 total yards and 15 points.

Texas Defense vs. Nebraska Offense

Now, the Texas defense is currently ranked No. 5 overall. Texas has not fared well against superior offensives (Texas A&M and Texas Tech both put up huge numbers on the Longhorns), but that will not be a worry here.

The Huskers do run the ball decently and may find success keeping the ball on the ground.

Overall, Nebraska will be lucky to put up two touchdowns on the Longhorns defense.

Texas is very good at interceptions, with 21 on the season, four of which were returned for touchdowns.

Special Teams

Neither team has a good punting game, which bodes very well for Texas.

Texas is No. 3 in kickoff returns and No. 15 in punt returns, with three kickoffs returned for touchdowns, as well as four punt returns. It was a kickoff return for a touchdown that helped Texas secure victory over A&M on Thanksgiving.

Given Texas's return ability, Texas has a decent chance of returning a kick in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Prediction

Texas has a much better offense and a much better return game than the Huskers. Everything else is basically equal.

Texas has problems containing high-powered offenses, but Nebraska lacks that. Likewise, Texas has problems moving the ball against even above average defenses, and Nebraska's is excellent, not merely above average.

Ultimately, Texas' ability to break open a game by way of a return or Colt's passing and running ability will likely be the determining factors in this game.

However, this will be a low-scoring, hard-fought game where only a few plays will determine the outcome.

Unfortunately for Frog and Husker fans, I think this one will go the way of the Longhorns, 17-10.

As such, Texas will most likely be heading to Pasadena and Boise State will get its second BCS invitation.

TCU will mostly only have a chance to finish undefeated and No. 2 in the nation, but such is life in the silly BCS world.

MWC Power Rankings: Post-Regular Season Edition

Pete Misthaufen — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:37:24 -0500

It has been another interesting year for the Mountain West Conference. While the top four teams remain the same, just with some minor reshuffling. TCU's undefeated season marks the six consecutive year that the MWC champion has gone undefeated in conference, though all three teams of the MWC Big Three have done it twice. Over these six seasons, the MWC conference champion has lost a total of five out of conference games. What is even more impressive is that the MWC has three teams in the BCS top 25 for the second consecutive year. The top three teams combined for two out of conference losses. The top of the conference is clearly at a BCS level, while the rest of the conference needs to catch up. As to the middle and bottom of the conference, things have definitely changed from the preseason positions. My preseason power rankings: 1. TCU 2. BYU 3. Utah 4. UNLV 5. Air Force 6. CSU 7. San Diego State 8. Wyoming 9. New Mexico Things have definitely changed from that. Interesting enough, every team in the power rankings for the end of the season defeated all the teams ranked behind it. Let's take a look.

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The BCS Fix Is In: Please End The NCAA Football Replay Rules

Pete Misthaufen — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:41:45 -0500

How did we finish the regular season with six undefeated teams? Was it coincidence, accident, or something else?

Looking back over the season, it seems as though one culprit more than any other is responsible for this result: The NCAA replay rules.

Consider this, the Florida-Alabama game this Saturday most likely would have two one-loss teams but for some very questionable work by both on-the-field SEC officials, as well as in-the-replay-booth SEC officials.

Likewise, Cincy, where Big East replay officials turned a Bearcat fumble into a Cincy touchdown over West Virginia after a five minute delay. Cincy's coach was as shocked as anyone with the ruling.

Even Boise State had some questionable help in its win at Tulsa.

And do not forget the questionable replay booth work in the Pac-10 a few years ago.

The Flawed Replay System

Under the current NCAA replay system, every single play may be reviewed by officials and they can delay the game to do so, even without a coaches' challenge.

There is no time limit for review.

The standard for overturning a ruling on the field, conclusive evidence, is vague at best.

Replay officials in many stadiums, including the SEC, lack HD TVs.

The worst aspect of the current system is that it leads to the perception that something fishy is going on in the replay booth.

When fans at home and in the stadium have seen the replays dozens of times during a five minute delay and the announcers are even forced to start to question some replay decisions, there is something very wrong at foot.

Moreover, with the vast sums of money at stake, only a fool would not wonder if something more nefarious was at stake.

It is not only the BCS bowl money at stake, as large as that might be.

It is also the huge TV deals that result from having teams compete and win the BCS championship.

For conferences like the SEC, there are billions at stake.

Even conferences such as the Big East have a huge need for an undefeated team to finish the regular season.

Having officials hired by conferences means that the officials are beholden to the very conferences that pay their paychecks.

Having some officials hidden away in a booth who know the big bucks at stake may not just have an appearances of malfeasance, but indicate that the fix is in.

The SEC sure got what is wanted, as Bama and Florida ran through their supposedly tough SEC schedules undefeated.

As long as we continued with the flawed BCS and its fraudulently named national championship game, we will continue to see very questionable officiating dictating the outcomes of games.

And as long as we continue with officials owned and paid for by conferences, we will continue to see conference loyalty prevail over fair and unreasonable outcomes.

So, while the Gators and the Tide battle it out for a spot in the BCS title game, just remember that neither team would be undefeated without "official" assistance.

SEC Secures Spot in BCS Title Game: Will Texas Be Next?

Pete Misthaufen — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 05:49:12 -0500

With Alabama and Florida finishing the regular season undefeated, the SEC now has eliminated any possibility of the SEC not having a team in the BCS title game. Now, it only remains to determine which team the SEC will face in its quest for a fourth consecutive BCS title.

With six undefeated teams, it would appear that the BCS was headed to the so-called "Doomsday scenario", that some pundits believe would lead to the implementation of a playoff.

While having four or more undefeated teams would seem at first glance as a problem for the BCS, the real problem is having an outsider make the BCS title game.

And by outsider, I mean Cincinnati as much as TCU. Have no doubt, even with its auto-bid status, the Big East does not have the required status, nor does the ACC outside of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Florida State.

Currently, unless Nebraska can find a way to win the Big 12 championship game versus Texas, the powers-that-be of the BCS will take comfort that they avoided what they view as a true disaster.

As a supporter of system shock , I can only hope for this type of doomsday soon. So, unless the Cornhuskers win, the BCS will avoid their worst nightmare. Having Boise State, TCU, and Cincy on the outside looking in will actually make them all content and happy.

Now, TCU and Texas have been very close together in the BCS computers for several weeks. There is a small chance that TCU could get a boost in the computers and human polls for the final BCS standings if Cincy loses (combined with the SEC championship game).

In such a situation, TCU most likely would be a strong No. 3 in the human polls, behind Texas, but with just enough computer help to move ahead by a small fraction. However, this is very unlikely and TCU needs a Texas loss.

One other possibility is a Texas loss and a very close battle in Atlanta. In such a situation, there is also a remote possibility of a Florida-Alabama rematch, but that would create such a stir and a turmoil that it is extremely unlikely.

Even with a Texas loss, TCU would likely need an assist from Pitt just to eliminate the Bearcat threat.

So, BCS tyrants, you are most likely going to get your way. But be prepared to deal with another difficult year in Washington, D.C., as the politicians badger Mr. Hancock and Mr. Perlman yet again.

And no, Ari the P.R. mouthpiece is not going to help resolve this situation. Not unless he can convince the BCS boneheads to finally bring in a playoff.

Twenty-One Teams Thankful for the BCS

Pete Misthaufen — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:57:22 -0500

The BCS yesterday officially gave up on 99 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. As such, there are only twenty-one possible teams that could receive one of the ten BCS slots. Schools not included in the list are now available to receive bowl bids, so the negotiations will be going like crazy to fill up the best spots. A couple of the teams may surprise college football fans. But there are a few things to remember about the BCS. First, it is all about money. Specifically, TV ratings. If a school has a reputation for bringing eyeballs to the TV sets, then it will get considered, even if the team has not played well this season. Given last year's disaster at the Orange Bowl (lowest rated BCS game ever), the powers that be want to avoid another bad draw. Second, it is all about money. Specifically, game attendance. Which teams can bring the fans that will spend the money. After all, the bowls were started originally for tourism purposes. So, a team that has failed to deliver previously will not get another chance. Again, last year's Orange Bowl is the best example of this problem, as thousands of tickets were unused and scalpers were trying to dump them for less than one dollar. Not exactly what the BCS wants. Third, no BCS bowl is going to take one for the team. These bowls are run by smart folks that understand the desire of the average fan for a playoff. While they would make a limited effort to placate outsiders, in the end, it goes back to TV ratings and attendance. So, let's look at the teams, especially the couple of surprises.

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Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Boise State, Oh, My!: The BCS At-Large Teams

Pete Misthaufen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:30:41 -0500

With only two weeks until the BCS bowl selections, we have a pretty good picture of what at-large teams will be available.

Of course, the BCS at-large choices do not represent the best teams, but merely those that are most likely to fill the stadiums and provide good television ratings.

The bowls will be extra cautious this year, given last year's absolute debacle in the Orange Bowl (thousands of empty seats and scalpers who tried to sell tickets for as low as $0.99).

We know a few of the BCS teams: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, and Ohio State. These five teams will play in BCS games without any doubt.

Add to that the ACC champion, the Pac-10 champion (Oregon or Oregon State) and the Big East champion (Pittsburgh or Cincinnati), and there's only, in fact, two available at-large positions.

To qualify for an at-large spot in a BCS bowl, a team from an automatic qualifying league must finish in the top 14. Boise, absent a loss to Nevada, is also eligible for an at-large spot.

Let's look closely at the possible teams.

Iowa

Best Wins: Penn State (10-2), Wisconsin (8-3)

Bad Wins: Northern Iowa (FCS) 17-16, Arkansas State (2-8) 24-21, Michigan State (6-6) 15-13

Losses: Ohio State (10-2), Northwestern (8-4)

The Hawkeyes had one win over a ranked opponent, the singularly unimpressive Penn State. Near losses to Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, and Michigan State really call into question Iowa's status.

While Iowa may get an at-large BCS bid due to its large following, the Hawkeyes will most likely get rolled.

Penn State

Best Wins: Northwestern (8-4), Temple (9-2)

Bad Wins: The other 8 cupcakes.

Losses: Ohio State (10-2), Iowa (10-2)

Even one of the softest schedules ever could not get Penn State into the Rose Bowl or the BCS title game.

The Nittany Lions have zero wins over ranked teams and are only in contention due to its large following and Joe Pa. Like Iowa, this Big Ten cream-puff will likely get rolled in a BCS game.

The Nittany Lions have been singularly unimpressive this year, even with eight home games.

Oklahoma State

Best Wins: No wins over ranked teams or even eight-win teams

Bad Wins: Texas A&M (36-31), Texas Tech (24-17), Colorado (31-28)

Losses: Houston (9-2), Texas (11-0)

All of a billionaire's money could not make the Cowboys into a good team. The near loss against Colorado last week really demonstrates how weak Okie State truly is. Okie State, like Penn State, stayed at home for its out-of-conference schedule, having played only three road games all season.

BCS committees beware: Okie State has failed to fill its new stadium, averaging about 7,000 empty seats a game. The Cowboys are not the Sooners and will not bring a large following to their game, nor will the Cowboys bring a lot of eyeballs to the TV.

The Cowboys will likely lose at Norman this week. The Sooners are undefeated at home this season and have not lost at Norman since 2005 to a TCU team that went 11-1. Even in a down year, Okie Lite is not OU, so this one will likely disappear from available options.

Boise State

Best Win: Oregon (11-1)

Bad Wins: Tulsa (28-21), Louisiana Tech (45-35)

Remaining Tough Game: Nevada (8-3)

Boise State has been in the top 10 for most of the season and the top six of the BCS rankings since the first week. Boise State not making a BCS bowl game would be an absolute crime.

Boise State is the best available at-large team, better than any team from the Big Ten or Pac-10 and better than a Big 12 also-ran.

Unfortunately for the Broncos, they are merely the second best team from a non-automatic qualifying conference.

As it currently stands, Boise State has a better win than Iowa, Penn State, or Oklahoma State, besides being undefeated. None of these teams has more wins over currently ranked teams.

Boise State will bring fans, maybe not as much as Penn State or Iowa, but more than Oklahoma State.

As a TV draw, it is a far better team for ratings than Oklahoma State.

Unfortunately for Boise State, the established structure is an abomination. After being jilted for Ohio State last year, it is likely that the Broncos will be heading back to a minor bowl game so that another weak Big Ten team can bring the big bucks.

Oddly enough, the left out Big Ten team would still earn more from the Capitol One Bowl than Boise State would from a BCS game, another absurdity.

BCS shills, such as Mr. Perlman of Nebraska, newly appointed BCS head Bill Hancock, and PR hack Ari Fleischer, will try to justify the logic of this, but I find it absolutely pathetic.

That Oregon, the team that Boise State completely dominated to start the season, is a win away from the Rose Bowl, even with a second loss, while Boise State must await the beauty contest is disgusting.

Other Teams

Since any team from the Big Six conferences is eligible for a BCS bowl, what other teams could slip in?

If Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh and finishes 11-1, the Bearcats would most likely be available for an at-large spot. Given last year's Orange Bowl disaster (the one in the stands and the TV sets, not the one on the field), Cincy will not be getting an at-large spot unless there is no other available team. Cincy will not get an at-large spot over Boise State.

A 10-2 Pitt team could finish in the top 14. It is possible that they could be an at-large team. However, it is unlikely that a second Big East team could be invited, given the overall poor ratings and attendance for BCS games with a Big East team over the last several years.

If Georgia Tech loses to Clemson in the ACC championship game, could a 12-2 Georgia Tech make it over Boise State? Maybe, if it is the Sugar Bowl doing the selecting. It is very unlikely that the Fiesta Bowl would take an at-large Georgia Tech team, not when 13-0 Boise State would be available with a large following ready to storm Arizona.

How about the Ducks if they lose in the Civil War? The Fiesta Bowl could like having a large Oregon crowd come to support a 9-3 Oregon team. However, it is really unlikely. The Pac-10 has been passed over so many times for a second spot in the BCS that is not reasonable to assume that any Pac-10 team will ever get an at-large bid unless it is USC.

Speaking of which, could USC back its way back into the BCS? The BCS computers love the Trojans, ranking them six spots higher than the human polls. If USC were to roll UCLA and Arizona over the next two weeks, it is very possible that USC could get back into the top 14. Given USC's national TV draw, it would really help the any BCS bowl get some good TV numbers.

The winner of the Holy War will likely be very close to reaching BCS eligibility, but a 10-2 BYU or Utah will not be invited.

As to other ACC teams, Miami, should the Canes beat USF in its final regular season game, could make it into BCS eligibility. Given the U's tough out-of-conference schedule, it is entirely possible that the Sugar Bowl could match up Miami against the loser of the SEC championship game. Possible, but not very likely.

In a very remote possibility, a 9-3 Ole Miss or 9-3 LSU could still make a BCS game. If Florida and Alabama lose to Florida State and Auburn this week, the loser of the SEC title game at 11-2 may not be the most attractive at large team from the SEC. Given last year's weak performance by Bama in the Sugar Bowl, maybe a BCS bowl would rather have a different team than Florida or Alabama.

Conclusion

While the season has been pretty uneventful outside of TCU's extraordinary season and USC's relative decline, maybe we will see some crazy upsets completely shake things up. After all, this is college football and anything is possible.

TCU-Wyoming: Can the Cowboys Lasso the Horned Frogs?

Pete Misthaufen — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:49:22 -0500

Wyoming is a huge (31.5) home underdog to TCU on Saturday for a very good reason.

TCU is the only team in the country in the top 15 in both offense and defense.

Wyoming, under first-year head coach Dave Christensen, has an underachieving offense and an average defense, as evidenced by BYU's 52-0 thumping of the Cowboys in Laramie two weeks ago.

Wyoming has little outside of history on its side for any chance to upset the world of hurt that is TCU football this season.

Wyoming defeated TCU two years ago in Laramie.

Last season, the Cowboys, although winless unless in conference play, went to Tennessee and stopped the Vols from reaching bowl eligibility.

Wyoming defeated a nine-win Virginia squad in 2007. In 2005, Wyoming went to Oxford and defeated the Mississippi Rebels.

Once upon a time, Wyoming was actually a major program. Wyoming went to a Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, three Sun Bowls, and a Gator Bowl, all before Jimmy Carter took the oath of office.

Wyoming has experienced a revival once in a while.

In 1988, Wyoming reached No. 10 in the AP poll before losing to the high-flying Houston Cougars.

In 1996, Wyoming lost in the WAC championship game to the Cotton Bowl-bound BYU Cougars, only to be left out of a bowl, even with a 10-2 record.

Wyoming last went to a bowl game in 2004, when the Cowboys defeated UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Not much was expected from Wyoming this year under their new head coach. After all, Wyoming had not won a conference game since 2007 and had not won one on the road since 2006. The Cowboys have done both this season.

So, the very fact that Wyoming is 5-5 with a shot at bowl eligibility is shocking to say the least.

Wyoming held Texas in check for a half, letting folks know that something was in the works.

The first real shocker came when Wyoming upset UNLV in Laramie. Most MWC observers had UNLV moving up to the middle of the conference this year.

Wyoming did go on a three-game losing streak while facing three of the conference's top four teams.

But it was last week's amazing comeback at San Diego State that really gives the Cowboys hope for the future. The Aztecs are another program attempting to return to respectability and were fighting for a bowl game. Wyoming, down 27-6 to start the fourth quarter, came back with 24 unanswered points to get the win.

After a near certain loss to TCU, Wyoming looks to reach bowl eligibility with a win over Colorado State in the rivalry known as the Border War. The Rams, after starting the season 3-0, have lost seven in a row, falling back after last year's relatively successful season.

TCU faces a few difficulties on the way to the win over the Cowboys.

The game is played at 7,200 feet, the highest altitude stadium in all of major college football.

The weather looks to be cold and nasty, with a wind chill factor near zero degrees.

The Wyoming fans are well-known in the Mountain West Conference for being the rudest and crudest folks around, not unexpected from a bunch of rough-and-tumble cowboys and roughnecks.

Unlike this other hostile factors, the Wyoming football team will not be able to mount a serious challenge to the Frogs, though.

52-3

Long Live the Rooster!: Andy Dalton's QB Play Putting TCU Over the Top

Pete Misthaufen — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:26:15 -0500

Everyone has known about TCU's tough defense for years. TCU coach Gary Patterson has made fast, strong defense his signature.

But this year, TCU is being recognized for something else: unstoppable offense.

Yes, it is hard to believe. Yet for most TCU fans, the plays being run on offense are mostly familiar.

Small changes have been made here and there, but the offense has remained to true its core.

TCU has long been a run-first team. This fits into Patterson's overall philosophy. The offense can do two good things for Patterson's defense: Eat clock and score points.

Coach Patterson has long held to the win-by-one-point idea, which has largely held true for the Frogs. Under Coach Patterson, TCU has lost only one game ever when the opponent scored fewer than 17 points, at Utah last year.

TCU has been a regular leader in time of possession, holding true to the idea that your opponent cannot score if they do not have the ball.

Last year, TCU averaged just over 420 yards per game on offense, good enough for No. 24 in the nation, with over 200 each rushing and passing.

But changes are evident this year, and the offense has shown an improved ability to dominate even top defenses.

This year, TCU is averaging over 250 yards per game rushing and over 215 yards per game passing, good enough for No. 4 in the nation in both total offense.

Where the team seemed to have trouble scoring points in big games last year (Oklahoma, Utah, and Boise State), the offense is on fire this year, as demonstrated by the rout of Utah.

Long Live the Rooster

If there is one factor more than anything else leading to the success of the Frog offense, it is the improved play of junior quarterback Andy Dalton.

A three-year starter, Dalton's improvement at quarterback has been the key factor for the incredible success of the TCU offense.

A happy warrior, Dalton seems to be taking all the success in stride, even when he was carried off the field by his fellow students last Saturday.

In TCU's toughest non-conference matchup, Dalton won the game for TCU with his running ability. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney credited Dalton's running ability for the Frog win, something Clemson had no answer for.

Dalton ran for 85 yards on 19 carries, mostly faking the handoff while cutting back into the line. Dalton also threw for two touchdowns and 226 yards.

Dalton is currently ranked No. 6 in the nation in passing efficiency, with a rating of 157.84. He is No. 32 in total offense.

TCU is ranked No. 8 in sacks allowed, largely based upon Dalton's ability to evade pursuit.

Dalton learned early on to avoid making costly mistakes. His freshman year saw him throw 11 interceptions, only to be benched. He quickly learned that mistakes had consequences.

This year he has only four interceptions on the season, almost all of which were tipped passes.

Dalton also has no 300-yard passing games this season (although he has had four over his TCU career), in large part because the team does not need him to do so.

Instead it is Andy's expert leadership over the running game that has helped TCU dominate its opponents.

Dalton has stated this season that the game has been starting to "slow down" for him this season, helping him to see openings and opportunities much quicker than in previous seasons.

Dalton is the leader of the offense, even if he is not forced to try to win the game all by himself like some other quarterbacks.

The Rooster guides and directs his team with passion and control—and he is obviously enjoying himself.

For some odd reason, Dalton was not included in the watch lists for the Davey O'Brien Award, even though the award is named after a TCU great. This mistake should not be repeated next year.

Dalton can lead his team to victory with his feet or his arm, but it is his brain that he most often uses this season, utilizing his ability to understand the opposing defenses and execute with precision and exactness.

His ability to defeat an opponent so many different ways makes it very hard to stop the Frogs on offense.

With Andy Dalton at the helm, TCU will continue to punish opponents with the offense, a welcome addition to the dominating defense.

Unfortunately for next year's opponents, Dalton will return for his senior season, hoping to lead TCU to another undefeated regular season. Look for the Frogs to continue with their high-powered offense.

Maybe Andy will be considered for a few awards as well.

Will Dallas-Fort Worth Stop Being Big 12 Country?

Pete Misthaufen — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:58:07 -0500

When the Big 12 was formed more than a decade ago, the leaders of the new conference decided that they had no need to include a team from North Texas.

The Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area is the most populous region of all the Big 12, with the biggest TV markets.

They also saw no need to include a team from the conference's second-most populous metro area, Houston.

The Big 12 clearly felt that they only needed Texas and Texas A&M. Then hapless Baylor and Texas Tech, who added nothing to the Big 12 markets or any prestige, only obtained membership due to political connections.

For the most part, the Big 12 leaders were correct.

TCU, SMU, Rice, and Houston were very down at the time, and Texas and A&M claimed the support of most casual fans in Texas.

A Change in the Air?

TCU started its climb back to the upper echelon of college football in 1998, with the hiring of Dennis Franchione and his very intense and very young defensive coordinator, Gary Patterson.

The Frogs quickly experienced success, giving top-10 Air Force its only loss of that season and finishing with a win over USC in the Sun Bowl.

With LT and a solid defense, the Frogs soon became a 10-win team and Coach Fran moved onward and upward, at least for a little while.

Under Coach Patterson, the Frogs have garnered nationwide attention with incredible defense.

This season, the Frogs are ranked No. 4 in the country and hosted ESPN College GameDay last Saturday.

For the first time, TCU packed Amon G. Carter with Frog fans, having some 6,000 fans more than the stadium capacity, for a total of 50,037.

Now, TCU has only 24,500 alums in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and had 7,000 or so current students at the game. TCU averaged just over 34,000 fans prior to the game, so 15,000 extra people showed up.

A large number of the extra people attending the game were fans and alums from Big 12 schools, many of which had never attended a TCU game before, even though they had lived in the region for years.

Local media, which had largely ignored TCU during the Patterson era, has actually started to support TCU. Area sport radio figures have gone Frog wild in support of the very team they had ignored.

The Fort Worth mayor declared last Friday "Go Purple Day" and asked that everyone wear purple in support of the team. As a result, local DFW TV news personalities wore purple on Friday and one station put a purple background on their broadcast.

People were heard lamenting around the region that they had not bought their tickets sooner, as few people had anticipated a sell-out, let alone an over-capacity crowd. Four hundred recruits, juniors and seniors—some committed to other programs and some multi-sport athletes—attended the game.

An oft-heard remark from first-time attendees was that they had no idea that TCU's football team was so good or that the game experience was so fun. Bandwagon fans have decided to jump on the local team, potentially changing the established pecking order for college football.

DFW's best kept secret is finally out.

SMU On the Rise

Likewise, SMU finally appears to have turned a real corner under coach June Jones.

While nowhere near TCU's level, SMU is carefully trying to follow TCU's lead. The Mustangs are bowl eligible and are in first place in their division of Conference USA. With only two losses in regulation, they are only two overtime losses away from a 8-2 season.

SMU had climbed back into the upper reaches of college football in the late seventies and early eighties, only to fall down to the pits when it received the death penalty from the NCAA, a one-year ban on the football team. They actually did not play for two years, so as to not have a shortened season with only road games.

The re-introduction of football came with vastly increased requirements for recruits, severely limiting the pool of potential players.

The Mustangs remained a bottom-feeder until interested alums ponied up the millions of dollars necessary for rebuilding a team that the school administration did not care about.

While Jones went through some lumps, his efforts appear to be paying off and continued success is anticipated. SMU no longer plays at the Cotton Bowl and now has a much smaller, on-campus stadium, so it will have easier time bringing in fans over the long-term.

While the Ponies are no longer the "best team money could buy," they do look to return to be a regional contender once again.

Impact on the Big 12

Now, the Big 12 moved its offices to DFW a few years ago. The Big 12 will be playing its championship game in DFW.

The Red River Rivalry will be continued to be played at the Texas State Fair at the old Cotton Bowl. Jerry Jones is hosting Big 12 teams at the new Cowboys Stadium for neutral site games.

Local radio stations broadcast the games of every Big 12 South team except Oklahoma State. Local newspapers cover the Big 12 extremely closely.

Could the Big 12's ownership of North Texas actually be threatened? Will many of the six million people in DFW now become Frog and Pony fans? The answers to these questions might actually be yes.

If so, this will have serious consequences for the Big 12.

Of course, TCU and SMU were two of the top programs in college football before World War II. Famously, one contest between the two featured both teams with a No. 1 ranking. Both schools produced numerous All-Americans, national titles, major bowl appearances, and award winners.

In other words, SMU and TCU are two schools that had big-time programs in the past and one has returned to that level and other aspires for the same thing. While Texas, Tech, Baylor, and A&M will continue to have hordes of alums and fans in DFW, TCU has already claimed a huge spot at the table and SMU is trying to grab its own.

Any gains in local support for TCU and SMU will come at the expense of Big 12 teams.

The Threat Is Real

The consequences (reduced revenue for the Big 12, more revenue for SMU and TCU, losing recruits, etc.) are real.

Maybe the Big 12 will start to regret taking Texas Tech and Baylor instead of TCU and SMU back when the Big 12 was formed. But, for TCU at least, time has passed and TCU does not need the Big 12 and has a better route to success, having used the slight to rebuild the program.

So, change is in the air and it looks to be coming at the expense of the Big 12.

Maybe the Big 12 will eventually need to consider moving its headquarters back to Kansas City.

TCU-Utah: Showdown in Cowtown

Pete Misthaufen — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 12:03:37 -0500

In what is arguably the non-BCS game of the year (although BYU-TCU may really merit the title), TCU faces a determined foe that has found ways to defeat the Frogs the last three years.

Looking at Utah

Utah, coming off the Sugar Bowl win over Alabama and losing QB Brian Johnson and a number of key figures on defense, looked to have a rebuilding year this year.

Utah dumped its presumptive starting quarterback just before the season and was left with a freshman and a JUCO battling it out for the position.

Its star running back suffered a severe injury early in the season.

In spite of these problems, Utah has shown that is not rebuilding, merely reloading.

Outside of a 31-24 loss at Oregon, the Utes have found ways to win, even in close games.

One the main reasons for the great success for Utah has been its excellent defense, ranked in the top 20 in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense, pass efficiency defense, and tackles for a loss.

Utah players are fast and strong and comparable with other top programs.

The offense, while averaging just under 30 points per game, is also averaging over 400 yards per game.

Former JUCO Terrance Cain led the offense for most of the season and will likely play some against TCU.

Freshman Jordan Wynn has come on in recent weeks and appears to be a solid foundation for the future of the Ute offense.

Utah is 29-2 since being shut out by UNLV early in the 2007 season, with both losses coming on the road (at BYU in 2007 and at Oregon in 2009).

TCU ready to fight to hell and back

Legendary TCU head coach Dutch Meyer is famous for repeating an old saying, "Fight 'em 'til hell freezes over, then fight 'em on the ice."

For TCU, hell once was very close.

While TCU had its start in Fort Worth, it moved out of the city due to an area of town known as Hell's Half Acre, a collection of brothels, gambling parlors, and saloons that TCU's early leaders thought would have a bad influence on a Christian school.

Cowtown's colorful history is only a distant memory today, but infamous in its day.

Persuaded to return by the leaders of Fort Worth, TCU sits less than two miles from the former site of Hell's Half Acre, but looks to give the Utes a frightening experience on Saturday.

TCU coach Gary Patterson has admitted that he circled this game with Utah last year—and teams better watch out on games he circles.

In 2005, it was a game with No. 5 Oklahoma, where the Frogs came away with a win in Norman, the last team to do so.

In 2006, it was Texas Tech, as Patterson and the Frogs looked to revenge a massive beatdown. Tech lost 12-3, the first game where the Red Raiders failed to score a touchdown since 2000.

In 2008, it was BYU, coming in with a top 10 ranking and looking to make a run at the BCS title. Instead, BYU was dominated in all aspects of the game, and DE Jerry Hughes made his name with four sacks of BYU QB Max Hall.

TCU comes into this game No. 6 in rushing, No. 8 in total offense, No. 3 in pass efficiency, No. 6 in scoring, No. 12 in sacks allowed, No. 7 in rushing defense, No. 7 in pass efficiency defense, No. 4 in pass defense, No. 12 in sacks, No. 3 in total defense, No. 5 in scoring defense, No. 13 in punt returns, and No. 3 in kick returns.

TCU has reached these heights while playing some of the top offenses and defenses in the country.

TCU holds opponents to just 67 percent of their normal yards per game and 38 percent of their normal points per game, while gaining 130 percent of the yards that their opponents typically allow and 141 percent of the points their opponents allow. (Data from The National Championship Issue )

With an over-capacity crowd, ESPN College GameDay in the house, and revenge on the mind, the Frogs are ready to dominate Utah.

Coach Patterson decided to use the Tom Petty song "I Won't Back Down" as his theme for the season.

Most of his players did not even know who Tom Petty is, nor had they heard the song before.

But they all know a few lines now.

"You can stand me up at gates of hell, but I won't back down."

For the Frogs, this means that they refuse to take second place to anyone and that nobody is going to push them around on offense or defense.

So far, they have lived up to this standard with great measure and look to make the Utes experience "60 minutes of hell" like Nolan Richardson's basketball teams used to dish out.

TCU has lost three in a row to the Utes, but look for that streak to end on Saturday.

Prediction

Prior to the season, I called this one 42-10. Vegas has the Utes as 19.5 or 20-point dogs. I guess I will just stick with my original prediction.

TCU, Cincinnati Bearcats, or Texas Longhorns: Who Deserves the BCS Title Game?

Pete Misthaufen — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:41:08 -0500

With the SEC seemingly owning a spot in the BCS title game, the question is:

Which team has earned a spot against Florida or Alabama?

While some would like to dispute the place of primacy for the SEC, especially if Florida wins out with what would be only two wins over top-25 teams (LSU and Alabama), it is really meaningless to argue about this, given the current irrational state of college football.

Instead, we need to focus on which of the three contenders for the non-SEC participant for the BCS title game.

There are three legitimate contenders for this spot: Cincinnati, Texas, and TCU.

Now, Longhorn fans would argue that they should not even be questioned about their status as the only valid contender for the other BCS title game spot, should they go undefeated.

Unfortunately for the Longhorns, they have no inherent right to this spot in the BCS title game and the very weak state of the Big 12 this year only weakens their case.

The Case for Cincinnati

The Bearcats, after winning the Big East last year, have unexpectedly returned to the top of the college football world.

Superficially, the Bearcats have an impressive schedule. However, Cincy has had the No. 73 schedule, according to NCAA.

Cincy started the season off with a huge win over a highly touted Rutgers team that has turned out to be a real hype job, having five wins over cream-puffs and its best win over UConn on its losing record.

After blowing out a FCS school, Cincy went to Oregon State and got its signature win. The Bearcats followed this up with another close game against Fresno State.

After a laugher over hapless Miami of Ohio, Cincy pounded the typically over-hyped South Florida Bulls. The Bearcats followed this up with wins over Big East doormats Syracuse and Louisville.

Of course, Cincy barely beat UConn last weak.

Now, Cincy has tough games ahead against West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Illinois. It is very likely that Cincy could lose a game.

It is also very possible that Cincy could run the table, given that Pittsburgh lost to a very bad North Carolina State team and West Virginia lost to both South Florida and Auburn.

Cincy has faced mostly weak defenses, having faced no top-20 defenses.

As demonstrated by UConn, Cincy really does not have a great defense and has only faced one top-20 offense (Fresno State).

Overall, Cincy is as serious a national title contender as Boise State, which is to say, not at all.

How about the Longhorns?

Texas comes to the table with a big name, a huge fanbase, and a monster reputation, but do the Longhorns really deserve the hype?

After all, the Longhorns are ranked fifth by the BCS computers.

Under the NCAA strength of schedule rankings, Texas is No. 39, barely above TCU.

Texas has only one win over a currently ranked team and will not likely face another this season, except in its bowl game.

The Longhorns have one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country, without a single game against a member of a BCS conference.

The win over Oklahoma State is okay, I guess, but Okie State lost at home to Houston, as well. Plus, the Cowboys were missing their highly respected skill players when they played Texas.

Texas has faced only one top-20 offense (Texas Tech) and one top-20 defense (Oklahoma).

The Texas offense has been kept under 350 yards four times this season.

Moreover, the Longhorn passing attack has been largely held in check by bad pass defenses. Texas has faced no teams ranked in the top 20 in pass defense and only faces one ranked below 69th in the entire season.

The Longhorn defense, while highly ranked, has held only three opponents under 250 yards this season and allowed over 400 yards to Texas Tech. The Texas defensive numbers are largely the result of playing Colorado, UTEP, and Central Florida.

Not exactly powers of college football.

Texas is currently ranked No. 1 in rushing defense, but this is largely related to the weak competition. Texas has faced only one good running team (No. 20 Oklahoma State, who they still gave up over 134 yards on the ground to with their star RB) and four of the 25 worst running teams in college football, with two more bad running teams coming up.

To put it simply, Texas has just enough to win, but would be ranked behind Boise State if it switched uniforms and resumes with Baylor. The Longhorns really do not deserve to be penciled into the BCS title game.

Frogs Leap to the Top

While Big Six conference supporters may claim that a non-automatic qualifying school like TCU has no business even getting close to the BCS title game, the reality is that TCU is the most deserving of the three.

By the end of the season, TCU should have three wins over teams ranked in the final top 25 (Clemson, Utah, and BYU).

TCU will have faced three top-20 defenses (Air Force, Clemson, and Utah) and two more in the top 50 (BYU and Virginia), a much harder slate of defenses than Cincy and Texas combined, making the TCU offensive stats all the more impressive.

TCU is effective both running and throwing the ball, ranked No. 6 in rushing, No. 3 in passing efficiency, No. 6 in scoring offense, and No. 8 in total offense.

Of course, everyone knows about TCU's amazing defense. Only one team (Clemson) has over 300 yards against them, while seven other teams were held to under 250 yards.

TCU's signature out-of-conference win is over ACC Atlantic Division presumptive winner Clemson in Death Valley, where other teams, such as Boston College, have gone and been completely shut down.

TCU's utter destruction of BYU was one of the best performances of the entire college football season.

With a win over Utah on Saturday after hosting ESPN's College GameDay , TCU will have the most impressive resume of any undefeated team, including teams in the SEC.

Conclusion

Out of the three real contenders for the non-SEC spot in the BCS title game, TCU is the best choice and most deserving.

Could Texas score on Cincy? Yes. Could Texas stop Cincy? Maybe.

Could Texas score on TCU? Not likely. Could Texas stop TCU? No way.

Cincy and Texas have played relatively easy schedules in comparison to TCU, pounding bad and average teams.

Will the voters actually reward TCU with this spot? It remains unlikely, due to the beauty contest nature of the BCS.

Texas most likely will make the BCS title game if they win out, but it will be with one of the softest schedules of any BCS title team ever, even weaker than Florida's last year.

TCU Sells Out TCU-Utah! Standing Room Only Tickets Now Gone!

Pete Misthaufen — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:44:09 -0500

There are a few givens when it comes to TCU football and its Amon G. Carter Stadium:

Solid defense led by All-American DE Jerry Hughes; clock-consuming ground game skillfully directed by QB Andy Dalton; coach Gary Patterson re-tying his shoes every change of possession; several thousand TCU fans sitting at their tailgates watching the other college football games instead of coming into the stadium; TV cameras showing the empty visitor section; and beautiful coeds overdressed for football.

What you do not expect is a sold-out game.

TCU has had two sellouts in memory: 1984, when the Texas fans actually filled Amon G. Carter Stadium (and the only time they did, even though the Longhorns played at TCU every other year), and 2006, when Texas Tech brought some 15,000 or so fans to see the Red Raiders lose to TCU.

Never have Frog fans sold out that stadium without a large visitor presence, coming close in 2003 in a game with Cincinnati when TCU was making another run at a BCS bowl.

Yet TCU fans have not only sold out the stadium for Saturday's matchup with Utah, they have done it on their own, as Utah will bring no more than a thousand or so fans.

With its nearest conference foe 700 miles away, it is very difficult for the Frogs to have many visitors, unless it is a local team like Baylor or SMU, or BYU with its 10,000 or so fans for its biennial trip to Fort Worth.

In fact, TCU copied Jerry Jones and is selling standing room only tickets at 15 dollars apiece, looking to cram the old stadium with as many as possible.

Even these Standing Room Only tickets are now gone.

So, TCU may not only surpass the stadium record of 47,280 set in 1984, but blow it out of the water.

Frog alums are coming in from around the country to witness this game in person.

With other major games available, ESPN decided that TCU-Utah is the game of the day, and CBS College Sports, which has the broadcast rights, will also be having their studio show coming live from Fort Worth.

Nike has also commissioned special uniforms for TCU just for this game, one of only 10 teams to receive this honor.

With the sell-out of SRO tickets, the only remaining option for obtaining a ticket is scalpers, but the high price will be worth it to come and witness the best college football team in the country, joining representatives from all four BCS bowls.

Meanwhile, No. 3 Texas plays at Baylor, a mere hour or so south of TCU. I guess ESPN has decided which team is really the best in Texas, and it is not UT, having passed the Horns over for some purple power.

BCS Week 4: TCU Jumps To No. 4

Pete Misthaufen — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 17:06:01 -0500

The latest BCS rankings are out and there's been a major shake-up.

TCU's consistent superior play has been noticed by both the BCS computers and voters. TCU is above Texas in the computers, but behind Cincinnati, who comes in at No. 3.

Boise State has no real chance to catch TCU if both finish the season undefeated, especially with TCU's upcoming battle against Utah.

USC received its lofty ranking mainly due to confusion between the computers and the human voters regarding Ohio State and Iowa.

On to the rankings:

1. Florida (.9842)

2. Alabama (.9516)

3. Texas (.9234)

4. TCU (.8620)

5. Cincinnati (.8580)

6. Boise State (.8126)

7. Georgia Tech (.7552)

8. LSU (.6138)

9. USC (.5922)

10. Iowa (.5745)

11. Ohio State (.5733)

12. Pittsburgh (.5628)

13. Oregon (.5318)

14. Miami (.4712)

15. Houston (.4691)

16. Utah (.4003)

17. Arizona (.3363)

18. Penn State (.3350)

19. Oklahoma State (.2909)

20. Wisconsin (.2334)

21. Virginia Tech (.2331)

22. BYU (.1236)

23. Oregon State (.1231)

24. South Florida (.1084)

25. West Virginia (.0653)

With major contests coming up this week, we shall again see considerable volatility in the BCS rankings for the next several weeks.

TCU Has Arrived! ESPN College GameDay Comes to Fort Worth for Utah-TCU

Pete Misthaufen — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 15:16:16 -0500

TCU coach Gary Patterson has been turning down job offers from "bigger" schools for a few years.

Many thought he would follow the path of former TCU head coach Dennis Franchione and move on to greener pastures once the job offers came rolling in.

Instead, he has stayed put at TCU, committing to the program, asking only that the school commit to the football team.

TCU is in the process of spending millions of dollars on a massive upgrade in facilities, with the stadium being the last piece in the puzzle.

TCU has already built an indoor practice facility and a student athlete complex that is on par with the best in the country.

One of the main reasons Patterson stayed put is that he believed he could reach the pinnacle of college football at TCU.

The man with a vision appears to have his goal in sight.

The Frogs are ranked No. 4 in the nation, a spot in a BCS bowl is all but guaranteed with a win over the Utes, and TCU has a shot at making the BCS title game.

ESPN College GameDay coming to Fort Worth

With TCU-Utah being the marquee matchup of the upcoming weekend, it is without too much surprise that ESPN College GameDay is coming to Fort Worth.

This will be the second time that Lee Corso and crew will have their show at a TCU game, having been at Provo for the TCU-BYU matchup.

For TCU, this is a true signal that TCU has returned to the highest levels of college football, a true miracle considering just how far TCU had fallen in the 1970s and 1980s.

Having been left to the side when the Southwest Conference imploded in the 1990s, TCU has moved from conference to conference, looking for both a home and long term success.

The Mountain West Conference has given TCU the vehicle to success that was missing from its time in the WAC and CUSA.

For the university, it is a great chance to advertise and showcase the school, which has been upgrading the entire campus over the last few years.

All this represents both vindication and validation for long-term supporters of TCU football and TCU, who put their money behind building a true powerhouse.

TCU should manhandle Utah on Saturday in a sold out Amon G. Carter Stadium, only the third sellout in the current stadium's history and the first based upon local support of TCU football (the other games were in 1984 against Texas and 2006 against Texas Tech, each of which brought in huge numbers of fans).

So, all those teams needing a great head coach will just need to look elsewhere.

Gary Patterson has everything he wants at TCU, including the success that so many argued was not possible in Fort Worth.

TCU should remain at the upper echelon of college football for years to come, especially with Gary Patterson leading the way.

TCU-San Diego State: Can the Aztecs "Trap" the Horned Frogs?

Pete Misthaufen — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:16:12 -0500

With Utah on deck next week, TCU travels to San Diego State to face the upstart Aztecs.

Could TCU, on the verge of receiving a BCS berth for the first time, actually falter against San Diego State?

The concern is more valid that it might appear at first glance.

Tradition at San Diego State?

San Diego State actually has a pretty impressive football history, being one of the first schools to utilize an aggressive vertical passing game. The Aztecs were the kings of the long ball, pioneers in the passing game.

During the era of Don "Air" Coryell from 1961 to 1972, San Diego State won 84 percent of their games.

San Diego State experienced continued success in the 1970s, finishing in the final Coaches' Poll top 20 three different seasons.

While the '80s were generally a period of decline for the Aztecs, they had one successful season in 1986, winning the WAC conference and losing by a point to Iowa in the Holiday Bowl.

The Marshall Faulk era gave San Diego State another good season in 1991.

San Diego State was generally competitive during the 1990s but never extremely successful under Ted Tollner, whose tenure ended after his third consecutive losing season in 2001.

The Tom Craft era featured bad teams that almost got there, especially with near misses at Michigan (2004, 21-24) and Ohio State (2003, 13-16).

The three years of the Chuck Long era made the Craft era look great in comparison, though the Aztecs did have close losses at Wisconsin and Notre Dame.

San Diego State has continued to make serious efforts to become competitive and has all the potential in the world.

San Diego is a beautiful season with great year-round weather.

It is a talent-rich region, although the best players end up at Pac-10 schools. The Aztecs are well represented in the NFL.

The Aztecs would be better served by having an on-campus stadium, but that will only happen if the Chargers move to LA.

A Building Program

San Diego State showed that it was going to continue to make a strong move to improve with the offseason hire of Brady Hoke.

Hoke, coming off a very success season at Ball State, brought in former New Mexico head coach Rocky Long as defensive coordinator and has an excellent staff for a program that has been down for so long.

The Aztecs have improved on both offense and defense and are looking to go bowling for the first time since 1998.

The Aztecs are coming off back-to-back conference wins over Colorado State and New Mexico.

On offense, San Diego State has returned to its roots and is airing the ball out, ranking No. 19 in the country in passing under offensive coordinator Al Borges.

QB Ryan Lindley has already thrown for over 2,000 yards on the season.

On defense, the Aztecs have implemented Long's unorthodox 3-3-5 system to bring the formerly inept defense (ranked No. 113 in 2008) to a competitive level (ranked No. 52 in total defense).

The Aztecs are really a year or two away from challenging for upper-tier status in the Mountain West Conference, but look for improvements to continue.

Prediction

TCU is one of the most dominating teams in college football on both sides of the ball. Ranked No. 1 in net yards, TCU has taken on top offenses and defenses on the road.

TCU's No. 1 defense, while inexperienced to start the season, has really started to dominate opponents, allowing just 13 points in the last three games.

On the season, TCU's opponents have averaged 28 points per game but less than 10 points against TCU.

This is TCU's fifth trip to San Diego over the last five years, winning all the previous trips, including last year's remarkable bowl game versus Boise State.

The TCU players have expressed great appreciation for the field and the stadium and look to perform above expectations, even with the upcoming battle with Utah.

TCU 44, San Diego State 7

Don't Get Burned, TCU Is Really Hot

Pete Misthaufen — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 12:19:45 -0500

Among the top eight teams in the BCS standings, it appears as though more than a few have been sliding through the season with some less than stellar performances in recent weeks.

After all, Florida has struggled with Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi State; Alabama with Tennessee; Texas with Oklahoma, and Iowa with practically everyone.

Looking at it, a case could be made that Oregon and TCU are the two hottest teams in college football.

After starting the season on life support, Oregon roared back to dominate USC last Saturday. The Ducks have raced up the BCS standings and now stand at No. 8, poised to jump over Boise State and with an outside chance at the BCS title game.

Meanwhile, TCU, undefeated, has been rolling, outscoring its last three opponents by an average score of 41-4 and on the way to a BCS bid, with only next week's matchup with Utah standing in the way.

But which team is hotter, and which team has succeeded against better competition?

The Case for Oregon

Oregon began this season seemingly incapable of performing to preseason expectations.

The Oregon offense appears to be dominating now, having put up 613 yards on USC.

The Ducks looked completely inept and only managed 152 yards against Boise State, the only game where the Broncos held a team under 200 yards.

At home against Purdue and Utah, Oregon looked like an average team at best, winning two very ugly games that could have very easily turned out as losses.

Since then, Oregon has been on fire, and was held under 400 total yards only once, against UCLA.

Oregon currently ranks No. 8 in rushing offense, No. 9 in scoring offense, No. 4 in pass efficiency defense, No. 20 in total defense, No. 19 in scoring defense, and No. 3 in kickoff returns.

However, Oregon has not faced a lot of good defenses or offenses in its Pac-10 wins. Not a single team (Cal, Washington, UCLA, Washington State, or USC) ranks in the top 20 in defense or offense.

Boise State and Utah are the only top 20 defenses Oregon has faced, and Boise State is the only top 20 offense Oregon has faced.

So, the Ducks are dominating, but is it not that surprising, given the level of competition.

Sure, USC allowed a lot of yards, but this was the first game where USC had faced a top 20 rushing offense. Maybe it was not so surprising that USC could not contain the Ducks' ground attack.

The Case For TCU

TCU is undefeated, with four solid road wins over teams going bowling this season.

As to the numbers, it is no question at all. TCU wins with success in all three aspects of football.

TCU is No. 7 in rushing offense, No. 12 in total offense, No. 11 in scoring offense, No. 4 in pass efficiency, No. 8 in rushing defense, No. 9 in pass efficiency defense, No.1 in total defense, No. 3 in scoring defense, No. 4 in kickoff returns, and No. 12 in punt returns.

TCU has done this while facing the two top 20 passing offenses, two top 20 defenses, a top five rushing offense, three top 20 scoring defenses, and two top five pass defenses.

Even though TCU has faced several tough defenses, the Frogs have never had fewer than 380 yards in a game.

With one of the most balanced offenses in college football, the Frogs average over 200 yards per game both on the ground and in the air.

TCU looks to continue its dominance through its final four regular season games, only one of which is against a team with a losing record.

TCU's last three opponents came into their games averaging a combined 31 points per game. Together, they scored a total of 13 points against TCU in the three games.

The Frogs are No. 1 in the nation in net yards (offensive yards minus defensive yards allowed) at 211.75 net yards per game. Florida is the only other team with over 200 net yards per game.

TCU is clearly one of the best teams in college football, with both a dominating defense and a powerful offense, as well as very dangerous return game.

The Frogs can play with anyone in the country and will show their strength in a BCS game this year. Look for another outsider beating down a traditional power this year in a major bowl game.

Conclusion

So, Oregon, you are pretty hot, but TCU is way hotter. By the way, the TCU coeds are hotter too.

Iowa Has Played a Tough Schedule? Looking at the BCS Top Seven

Pete Misthaufen — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:37:38 -0500

In spite of a No. 4 ranking in the latest BCS standings and a No. 2 ranking among BCS computers, the Iowa Athletic Department has seen fit to produce a press release hyping Iowa football.

Lobbying for your team is a bit classless (You hear that, Mack Brown?), but not that unusual. After all, the SEC is basically a non-stop hype machine already talking about having a rematch of the SEC title game for the BCS title.

Determining an accurate schedule difficulty because a simple opponent win-loss total is misleading, given the large number of out-of-conference (OOC) games against FCS, MAC, and Sun Belt schools.

A better way is to look at opponents' wins, especially wins over BCS schools out-of-conference. That way, it is relatively easy to see that Iowa has played a schedule versus teams that scheduled a bunch of cupcakes OOC.

So, let's go through each of the top seven in the BCS standings and clearly set forth their opponents' wins to really see where things add up.

1. Florida

Charleston Southern (zero FBS wins)

Troy (six FBS wins—mostly over Sun Belt teams, zero BCS wins, lost to Bowling Green of the MAC)

Tennessee (four FBS wins, two BCS wins, OOC loss at home to UCLA)

Kentucky (four FBS wins, two BCS wins, OOC BCS win over Louisville—But does that really count?)

LSU (eight FBS wins, five BCS wins, one OOC BCS win at Washington)

Arkansas (three FBS wins, two BCS wins, one OOC win over Texas A&M)

Mississippi State (two FBS wins, two BCS wins, zero OOC wins over BCS schools, OOC losses to Houston and Georgia Tech)

Georgia (four FBS wins, four BCS wins, one BCS OOC win over Arizona State, OOC loss to Oklahoma State)

Totals for Florida's opponents: 31 FBS wins; 17 BCS wins; four OOC BCS wins—Louisville, Washington, Texas A&M, and Arizona State

2. Texas

Louisiana-Monroe (three FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

Wyoming (three FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

Texas Tech (five FBS wins, three BCS wins, zero OOC BCS wins)

UTEP (three FBS wins (including Houston), zero BCS wins)

Colorado (two FBS wins, one BCS win, OOC losses to Colorado State and Toledo, both with losing records)

Oklahoma (four FBS wins, three BCS wins (Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas, not exactly murder's row), zero BCS OOC wins, lost to BYU in a virtual home game)

Missouri (four FBS wins, two BCS wins (Colorado and Illinois—I do not think I should count those), one OOC BCS win (Illinois at neutral site))

Oklahoma State (five FBS wins, four BCS wins, one OOC BCS win, lost to Houston at home)

Total for Texas' opponents: 29 FBS wins; 13 BCS wins; two OOC BCS wins—Georgia and Illinois

3. Alabama

Virginia Tech (five FBS wins, four BCS wins, one OOC BCS win)

Florida International (two FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

North Texas (two FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

Arkansas (three FBS wins, two BCS wins—Texas A&M and Auburn, one OOC BCS win)

Kentucky (four FBS wins, two BCS wins—Louisville and Auburn, one OOC BCS win)

Mississippi (three FBS wins, two BCS wins—Arkansas and Vanderbilt, zero OOC BCS wins)

South Carolina (five FBS wins, four BCS wins, one OOC BCS win over North Carolina State)

Tennessee (four FBS wins, two home BCS wins—Georgia and South Carolina, OOC loss at home to UCLA)

Total for Alabama's opponents: 28 FBS wins; 20 BCS wins; four OOC BCS wins—North Carolina State, Texas A&M, Louisville, and Nebraska

4. Iowa

Northern Iowa (zero FBS, zero BCS wins)

Iowa State (four FBS wins, two BCS wins, zero OOC BCS wins)

Arizona (four FBS wins, three BCS wins, zero OOC BCS wins)

Penn State (seven FBS wins, five BCS wins, one OOC BCS win against Syracuse—which should not count, but one OOC over Temple that maybe should)

Arkansas State (one FBS win, zero BCS wins)

Michigan (four FBS wins, two BCS wins (but only if you count Notre Dame), one OOC BCS win (again, only if you count ND)

Wisconsin (five FBS wins, three BCS wins, zero OOC BCS wins)

Michigan State (three FBS wins, three BCS wins, lost to Central Michigan and Notre Dame OOC)

Indiana (three FBS wins, one BCS win (Illinois), zero OOC BCS wins)

Total for Iowa's nine opponents: 34r FBS wins; 19 BCS wins (mostly over bad Big Ten teams), two OOC BCS wins—Syracuse and Notre Dame

5. Cincinnati

Rutgers (four FBS wins, two BCS wins, one BCS OOC win—Maryland)

SE Missouri State (zero FBS wins)

Oregon State (four FBS wins, three BCS wins, zero OOC BCS wins)

Fresno State (four FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

Miami University (one FBS win, zero BCS wins)

South Florida (four FBS wins, three BCS wins, one OOC BCS win over Florida State)

Louisville (two FBS wins, zero BCS wins, lost to Utah)

Syracuse (two FBS wins, one BCS win, one OOC BCS win over Northwestern)

Total for Cincinnati's opponents: 25 FBS wins, 10 BCS wins, three OOC BCS wins over Maryland, Florida State, and Northwestern)

6. TCU

Virginia (three FBS wins, three BCS wins, OOC BCS win over Indiana, lost to FCS school and Southern Miss)

Texas State (zero FBS wins)

Clemson (four FBS wins, three BCS wins, zero OOC BCS wins)

SMU (three FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

Air Force (four FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

Colorado State (two FBS wins, one BCS win, one OOC BCS win)

BYU (six FBS wins, one BCS win, one OOC BCS win, lost at home OOC to Florida State)

UNLV (two FBS wins)

Total for TCU's opponents: 24 FBS wins, eight BCS wins, three BCS OOC wins—Oklahoma, Colorado, and Indiana

7. Boise State

Oregon (seven FBS wins, six BCS wins, one OOC BCS win)

Miami (oOhio) (one FBS win, zero BCS wins)

Fresno State (four FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

Bowling Green (three FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

UC-Davis (zero FBS wins)

Tulsa (three FBS wins, zero BCS wins)

Hawaii (one FBS win, one BCS win, one OOC BCS win—Washington State)

San Jose State (zero FBS wins)

Total for Boise State's opponents: 19 FBS wins, seven BCS wins, two OOC BCS wins—Purdue and Washington State

While this shows the current weakness overall in out-of-conference scheduling, it demonstrates how few good teams most schools play.

Clearly the best OOC win for any of these seven teams' opponents was BYU's victory over Oklahoma, with USF's win over FSU as the next best win. Oregon's win over Utah should be there as well.

Of course, Boise State and TCU cannot rack up cheap wins over BCS schools like the other five teams, so their totals for BCS wins naturally reflect that. Even so, they are not far behind Texas and Cincinnati, both of which have faced relatively easy schedules to date.

Iowa's nine opponents have faced less than challenging schedules, especially since Michigan's win over Notre Dame is the only significant OOC win.

Looking forward, Iowa's future opponents have no OOC BCS wins.

So, Iowa, next time, before putting forth your propaganda, take a closer look at the easy path you have taken so far. The numbers you put forth are inflated by cupcake victories, including many inside the Big Ten.

Even Mack Brown was too smart to put out this silly propaganda.

Vegas Loves TCU, But Can UNLV Slow Down The Frogs?

Pete Misthaufen — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:13:29 -0400

When TCU opened as a thirty-one point favorite (now up to thirty-five) for its upcoming game against UNLV, it was obvious that the Frogs' success had not missed the eyes of the people who make money picking games.

On the other hand, UNLV has a lame duck coach who hasn't been fired only because it would cost the school a few hundred thousand dollars to do so. Plus, would the Rebels play any better without their poor excuse for a coach?

Many people with an interest in Mountain West Conference sports had thought UNLV would be much improved this year.

After all, UNLV went 5-7 last year, took BYU to the limit and missed a bowl only by losing their final game against San Diego State. The Rebels upset No. 15 Arizona State in Tempe and defeated Iowa State at home.

UNLV has a great quarterback in Omar Clayton. Clayton walked on his freshman year, commuting by bus some twenty-five miles each way.

UNLV also has an excellent receiver in Ryan Wolfe, ranked No. 5 in the nation in catches per game.

Instead of building on last season, UNLV is struggling to not lose ground.

The Rebels cannot run the ball, cannot stop the run and cannot stop the pass, which clearly explains why TCU is such a huge favorite.

The only reason TCU will not cover the spread in this game is if TCU coach Gary Patterson intentionally tried to not score as much as he did against Colorado State.

Even so, Patterson knows that style points matter, so I look for the Frogs to win by thirty-five plus here, covering the spread and winning with ease.

TCU Fans To Bust Myth with Travel To a BCS Game

Pete Misthaufen — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:15:20 -0400

The BCS is really all about money. The BCS bowls have one concern over all: Will the bowls make money each year?

The BCS is not about creating the best matchups or rewarding the best teams in college football.

It is most certainly not about crowning a true national champion.

It is about fans travelling to Miami, Phoenix, New Orleans, and SoCal.

It is about people watching college football on TV in January.

The idea that a team will not fill its share of the stadium or draw TV viewers is a huge issue. Outside of the BCS Title Game and the Rose Bowl, the other BCS games struggle to secure adequate television ratings and attendance.

Last year, the Orange Bowl faced a tremendous problem by having ACC champion Virginia Tech play Big East champion Cincinnati. The ratings were the lowest of any BCS bowl ever and thousands of tickets were going unused and being scalped for $0.99.

As such, the leaders of the BCS bowls have real and valid concerns about the teams they select. None of the bowls wants anything to do with a Big East champion, especially if it is Cincinnati, a largely commuter based school with a very limited tradition of successful football, having finished the final AP Top Twenty-Five only twice, for the 2007 and '08 seasons.

Now, with the threat of Cincinnati returning to a BCS bowl very real, as well as the nation's current economic situation, the BCS bowls will be especially sensitive to having good draws at their bowl games.

TCU Fans Do Not Travel?

An odd myth has been spreading around the college football world recently that needs to be addressed.

I have read and heard it several times in the last few days, mostly from "experts" from ESPN.

Simply put, it is that TCU fans would not travel to a BCS game in large numbers, while Boise fans would do so, making Boise more attractive than TCU to the money-men behind the BCS bowls.

Let's put this to bed immediately.

TCU would take the full 17,500 tickets for a BCS game and likely ask for more.

How could this be when TCU only average 35,000 a game?

How could this be when TCU is a "small" private school?

For the uninformed, TCU is a private school with undergraduate enrollment of 7,411. In comparison, the 11 private BCS schools have average enrollment of just over 9,000, with only one school, USC, having an undergraduate population over 15,000.

TCU has the second largest undergraduate population of the private schools outside of the Big Six conferences.

BYU, with a undergraduate enrollment of around 30,000, is the only private school that rivals the major state schools in undergraduate enrollment.

TCU has about 71,500 living alumni.

All this is well and good and demonstrates that TCU is comparable at least to the other major private schools in college football, but this is not why TCU will sell out its allotment and ask for more.

It is about money.

TCU is a relatively wealthy institution full of rich undergraduates and alumni with a lot of money to spend.

TCU students and alumni can afford to travel to a BCS bowl game and would do so in large numbers.

And they would spend a lot of money doing so.

TCU has been to major bowls before, having gone to the Sugar Bowl two times, the Orange Bowl once, and the Cotton Bowl six times.

So, tell all the ESPN "experts", please stop repeating the myth that TCU will not travel to a BCS bowl. TCU will go and paint the town purple while waiting for their beloved Frogs to show the country the best football in America.

Falling Behind: Why TCU Will Stay Ahead of Boise State in the BCS Standings

Pete Misthaufen — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 09:52:39 -0400

In the second edition of this season BCS rankings, No. 6 TCU jumped ahead of Boise State, as the Broncos fell down to No. 7.

Boise State still owns a healthy lead in the human polls (up one in the Coaches' Poll and up two in the Harris), but was killed by the computers (No. 8 overall).

This was largely a foreseen circumstance as many had analyzed Boise State's schedule and called it a weak at best and a one-game season at worst.

Of course, Boise State's last loss was to TCU in their incredible bowl matchup last year.

So, does Boise State have any real chance of passing up TCU to secure an automatic berth to a BCS bowl?

Or does Boise State just need to sit back and hope that TCU loses or that the BCS takes two non-automatic qualifiers this year?

Let's take a closer look.

How Did We Get Here?

TCU finished last season as the consensus No. 7 after defeating Boise State in the Poinsetta Bowl. Boise State finished at No. 11 in the AP and No. 13 in the USA Today Coaches' Poll.

Inexplicably, TCU started this season at No. 17 in both the AP and the Coaches' Poll. Meanwhile, Boise State started off the season at No. 14 in the AP and No. 16 in the Coaches' Poll. I guess they should be glad not to be Cincinnati and start the season unranked.

While teams like Alabama, USC, Oklahoma, and Texas are automatically assumed to be as good as they were the year before and start off the season in the top 10, teams from outside major players in the Big Six are lucky even to be ranked in the preseason polls, even when they return much of their talent from very successful teams.

Even worse, teams like LSU start off the season with top 10 rankings even when they finished the previous season unranked.

It creates an enormous mountain for outsider teams to overcome part of the inherent difficulty that outsiders face in reaching the BCS title game.

The Season Starts

Of course, Boise's big win over Oregon rightly bumped Boise State up, going to No. 11 and No. 12. TCU advanced to No. 16 with a bye week. Both schools remained behind fellow would-be buster BYU, who notched a huge win over then-No. 3 Oklahoma at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

For Boise State, the win over the Ducks opened a door to a BCS win. Few observers expected the Broncos to be challenged in any of their other games, an observation that has largely proven correct so far.

Week Two

TCU opened with a solid win at Virginia, holding the Wahoos scoreless for 55 minutes. However, this win lost some of its luster in Week One as Virginia lost at home to a FCS school.

Boise advanced with a win over a MAC school to reach a consensus No. 10 ranking. TCU slid up to No. 15 in both polls.

Week Three

Week Three created a huge opening for both schools, as BYU fell inexplicably at home to Florida State.

Boise State defeated WAC rival Fresno State in an exciting game. TCU rolled over its FCS opponent at home.

The Broncos jumped to No. 8 in both polls, essentially taking over for BYU as primary BCS buster, while TCU languished at No. 14 and No. 15.

Week Four

TCU won a hard-fought contest in Death Valley during a monsoon against Clemson, while Boise State went to Bowling Green and had another convincing win.

Boise State jumped all the way to No. 5 in both the Coaches' Poll and the newly-released Harris Poll, as well as the AP.

TCU became reached No. 10 in the AP and Coaches' Polls and No. 11 in the Harris Poll.

TCU was 303 votes behind the Broncos in the AP, 216 in the Coaches Poll, and 606 in the Harris.

Week Five

TCU defeated its local rival, SMU, in another rainstorm, pulling away in the second half. Boise hosted a FCS school and scored a touchdown in the final minutes to make the final score more respectable.

Boise State remained at No. 5 in the Harris and TCU advanced to No. 10, but the gap closed to only 472 votes, a gain of 134 votes for TCU.

Boise State fell back in the Coaches' Poll to No. 6 and TCU advanced to No. 9. The gap narrowed to 168 votes, a gain of 48 votes.

TCU also made up ground in the AP, as the Frogs rose to only 245 votes behind the Broncos.

Week Six

With Boise State having a bye week, TCU travelled to icy and windy conditions at Air Force, where the game time temperature was somewhere around 19 degrees.

TCU led easily for most of the game before the opportunistic Falcons (No. 1 in turnover ratio in the country) forced their third turnover from TCU and scored a late touchdown on a short field, making the final score 20-17.

The AP voters punished TCU for winning a game in awful conditions on the road and against a solid team, dropping TCU to No. 12, while returning Boise State to No. 5 for their stellar performance during the bye week. TCU fell to 282 votes behind Boise State.

The Coaches' Poll, perhaps reflecting an understanding of what it actually means to win a game in Colorado Springs in difficult conditions, moved TCU up to No. 8, though TCU actually lost ground in the vote totals, being 191 back of Boise State.

TCU remained 469 votes and five sports behind Boise State in the Harris poll.

Week Seven

This is the week where the situation turned for the worse for Boise State. In a ESPN midweek contest, Tulsa's tough play against Boise State was noticed and "experts" started to cast doubt on the quality of the Broncos.

Meanwhile, TCU rolled against Colorado State, in a game which featured a well-played highlight of Jeremy Kerley returning a punt in spectacular fashion.

The writers moved TCU up again to No. 10, but a mere 155 votes behind No. 6 Boise State.

The Coaches erased most of the separation between the two schools, moving TCU to No. 7 and a mere 84 votes behind Boise State, closing the gap by 107 votes.

TCU also moved to No. 8 in the Harris, 274 votes behind Boise State, cutting the margin in half.

The initial BCS rankings gave Boise State the No. 4 position, with a healthy score from both the computers and the voters. Boise ranked between one (Colley and Wolfe) and eight (Sagarin) spots ahead of TCU.

Boise State had scored .8083, with a total lead of .0944 over TCU in the BCS.

Week Eight

TCU's complete domination and destruction of BYU played well both with humans and computers, though Boise still retained substantial voter love.

TCU remained two spots behind Boise State in the Harris poll, but only by a mere 154 votes, essentially gaining an entire spot.

Boise remained above TCU in the Coaches' poll, but only by 21 votes.

In the AP, TCU closed the gap to 45 votes.

Most importantly, the BCS computers jumped all over TCU, while penalizing Boise State for playing another weak opponent. Now that the Oregon win is only one of seven Boise State wins, its importance has declined.

Moreover, Clemson's upset of Miami has transformed TCU's win at Death Valley into a quality win.

The much referenced Sagarin rankings remain the only computer to have Boise ahead of TCU. Since the BCS drops the lowest and highest computer ranking, it is now virtually meaningless in the this discussion.

The remaining computers rank TCU at No. 4 or No. 5, giving TCU a .850 score.

Boise, beloved by Sagarin at No. 4 (dropped by the BCS), earned between six and 11 for a total of .740.

TCU largely benefits from having the No. 28 strength of schedule of all teams for games played to date, third-highest among the top eight teams.

Boise State, having played the No. 79 schedule, is only ahead of Cincinnati among the top eight teams.

BCS Formula Helps TCU

The current makeup of the BCS formula is currently helping TCU over Boise State.

The human polls make up two-thirds of the BCS ranking, but do not do so based upon ranking. Instead, the actual vote totals are the measuring stick.

So, using that basis, TCU is only about one-and-a-half spots behind Boise State in the Harris Poll and a half spot in the Coaches' Poll.

TCU is thereby much closer in the human polls to Boise State than appears at first glance.

The computers use the rankings for each team, thereby exaggerating differences. For example, Boise State is just a hair (0.005) behind TCU in the Massey BCS rankings, but is a spot (.04) behind TCU in the same computer ranking as used in the BCS.

The computer polls will be somewhat volatile for the two teams going forward, depending upon the relative success of their opponents, but TCU's leg up in the computers will most likely stay.

So, Where Does It Go from Here?

This week, both TCU and Boise State face seemingly helpless foes in home games. In the Colley Matrix, UNLV comes in at No. 99 and San Jose State at No. 100.

At home, San Jose State is a competitive team having pushed Utah to the limit before losing. Likewise, UNLV had Oregon State beat at home until a very suspect pass interference call helped the Beavers pull out a win.

Both teams have failed to meet expectations (and both were expected to reach bowls this year), so playing tough against their respective conference leaders might happen.

But if the Frogs and the Broncos both blow out their opponents as expected, the computers will impact each in similar fashion. Any change in Week Nine will most likely occur with the human voters.

Week Ten will unlikely cause much change either. TCU heads to an improving San Diego State, while Boise State travels to Louisiana Tech, both ranked in the 90s by Colley.

Unless there is an unexpectedly close game, do not expect to see much change in the human polls. The computers, prohibited from judging margin of victory, just ding both teams for playing weak opponents.

Week Eleven is where the Frogs look to gain some serious mileage, facing BCS No. 16 at home, while Boise State hosts BCS No. 39 Idaho.

Even if both TCU and Boise State win, look for TCU to gain both in the computers and the humans.

Week Twelve in mid-November has Boise State traveling to Utah State with a high-powered offense and no defense, while TCU heads up to an improving Wyoming at college football's highest stadium (7,200 ft.).

With bad weather a serious possibility, TCU faces the tougher challenger from both their opponent and likely gametime conditions.

Week Thirteen has TCU closing out at home with one of the worst teams in college football, New Mexico, while Boise State hosts the very dangerous Nevada Wolf Pack.

Boise State could potentially make up some computer ground here, but also faces its last chance to lose, as Nevada has pushed Boise the last two years in high-scoring affairs.

Week Fourteen has Boise State closing out with a home game with the awful New Mexico State Aggies, while TCU has a bye.

This game actually should hurt Boise State more than help. Playing 13 regular season games is good, but it further reduces the Broncos' schedule strength and this win will impress no one, even if it were 80-0.

Conclusion

Unless TCU loses, do not expect Boise State to jump back over the Frogs. With the upcoming contest with Utah, TCU has a trump card for the BCS computer rankings. The computers more closely follow strength of schedule and track quality of opponents.

Now, the human polls, being largely a beauty contest, could stick with the Broncos, but look for them to follow the computers, especially as voters are reminded that TCU handed Boise State its last loss in a game featuring mostly the same players on each team.

Given all this, a TCU win over Utah should all but guarantee the Frogs a spot in a BCS bowl game.

In a rational world, this would not matter. An undefeated Boise State should be given an at-large spot for the BCS. However, the Broncos face the unwelcomed, but regular role of having being passed over by the BCS in favor of a school that would provide higher television ratings and a higher chance at a sell out of the game.

The Broncos can console themselves with the idea of the improved schedule for next year and the possibility that their fellow WAC teams will actually improve, making the Broncos true national title contenders in 2010. The Broncos are a very young team and will likely be even better next year.

Of course, TCU will return most of its starters again on offense and has shown a strong ability to reload on defense, even when losing stars the caliber of Jerry Hughes and Daryl Washington, both of which will be playing on Sundays next season.

So, we can expect another TCU versus Boise State contest for a BCS bid next season. The way these teams are playing with young players this season, maybe we can even get one of the two teams into the BCS title game.

Now, wouldn't that just upset the powers that be in the college football?

TCU Beats Down BYU: Frogs Leap to No. 6 in Week Nine BCS Rankings

Pete Misthaufen — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 18:56:10 -0400

TCU went up to the heights of Provo, Utah and made a huge statement.

Not only are the Frogs contenders to be the best team in Texas , but also the best team in college football.

Far-fetched?

Not really.

Domination in Provo

TCU's 38-7 smack down of BYU in the mountains of Utah represented a complete domination of BYU.

BYU had come into the game as the No. 6 offense in the nation, averaging almost 470 yards per game in total offense. The Cougars were No. 1 in the nation in third-down efficiency, converting about two of every three third downs.

The Cougars had only 298 total yards against TCU, including only one 188 yards passing. TCU held BYU to five-of-15 on third-down conversions.

Since 2004 BYU has been held under 300 yards total offense only two times; against TCU in 2008 and against TCU in 2009.

BYU has not been held under 200 yards passing in a game against FBS opponents since playing against USC in 2004.

Now, you could argue, this is just BYU, so what?

TCU just shut down an offense that no one (outside TCU) has been able to shut in five years!

Meanwhile, TCU rolled up 38 points and over 400 yards of offense against BYU.

TCU No. 6?

In the latest release of the BCS standings , TCU jumped over Cincinnati and Boise State to claim the No. 6 spot, largely powered by a No. 4 ranking in the computers.

TCU is well-poised to continue its upward climb, especially with its upcoming battle with BCS No. 16 Utah.

Iowa, beloved by the computers who are not allowed to judge the Hawkeyes for a near loss to an FCS school or a Sun Belt bottom dweller, is the consensus No. 1 in the computer rankings and No. 4 overall, overcoming a No. 8 position in both human polls.

USC, highly regard by the humans as the consensus No. 4, is despised by the computers who only put the Trojans at No. 8, giving USC on overall standing of No. 5, but a mere .0054 above TCU.

A win over Oregon should give the Trojans a healthy boost in the computers.

Boise is unfortunately hitting its predictable slide due to its schedule. If Oregon loses one or two games, Boise should slide even further. Boise is largely being propped up by the human voters, as their computer ranking is No. 8.

Here are the undefeated teams (plus the one loss contender).

1. Florida .9726

2. Alabama .9450

3. Texas .8927

4. Iowa .8249

5. USC .7944

6. TCU .7890

7. Boise St .7752

8. Cincinnati .7735

Overall, things are looking great for the Horned Frogs, as a BCS berth appears a lock as long as the Frogs keep winning and a spot in the BCS title game remains an outside possibility.

Creature vs. Creature: TCU Is No Hoax and Will Prove It Against BYU in Provo

Pete Misthaufen — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:22:34 -0400

I have as much love and appreciation for BYU football as I do for TCU football or even USC football. With personal connections to all three schools, I have followed them in good times and bad, but BYU football really stands out.

This season, I have enjoyed and celebrated the Cougars victory over Oklahoma. I was saddened by the disaster against Florida State.

I approach this year’s edition of the BYU-TCU rivalry with the same divided loyalties that I have experienced every year.

For me, this is a no-lose and no-win situation. One of my teams will lose and one must win, so I just hope that it is good game and that the best team wins.

Unfortunately for BYU, the best team this year is really TCU. With the help of Mark Welling, b/r Featured Columnist for BYU football, we have entered into a little Creature vs. Creature Point/Counter-Point preview of the upcoming game. Find his companion article here.

Last Year’s Game Showed That BYU Is Really Over-Matched by TCU

Last year, BYU came to Fort Worth with a Top 10 ranking and looking for its third consecutive win against TCU.

Instead, BYU was completely dominated in a game that was basically over by the end of the first quarter.

BYU QB Max Hall looked frightened and jittery as TCU DE Jerry Hughes sacked him four times and forced two fumbles.

TCU held BYU’s high-powered offense to under 300 yards in total offense. TCU forced four turnovers and sacked Hall a total of six times.

On offense, TCU hit close to its season average, reaching over 400 yards in total offense.

While the final score read 32-7, the game was nowhere near that close, as TCU Coach Gary Patterson called off the dogs in the second half.

Some may say “that was last year.” To them, I respond, the two teams are largely the same, but BYU is without its experienced offensive line or its playmaker Austin Collie, now starring on Sundays with Peyton Manning.

TCU this year is better on offense than last year and the defense, while not as experienced, is more talented and athletic.

Counter-Point

Historically BYU struggles against extremely athletic teams; however, BYU’s struggle last season against TCU was compounded by their overconfidence.

BYU was untested last season going into the TCU game, and had a false sense of confidence. As a result the Cougar players admitted they looked past TCU (which still seems like an extremely irrational thing to do).

This season BYU has already suffered an embarrassing loss at home to Florida State, which served as a wake-up call. Plus, the memory of last year’s loss to TCU will serve as motivation to help the players prepare for the Horned Frogs.

In addition to being better prepared, BYU is also a better defensive unit than last year. There were serious holes in BYU’s defense last season, and Gary Paterson put together a great game plan to exploit those holes. This year BYU has a more balanced defense which is better able to play against the spread offense of TCU.

Not having Austin Collie might be the best thing to happen to BYU. Max Hall forced too many passes last season to Collie, leading to costly turnovers. Hall has more targets this season in the offense, and more support on the ground from Harvey Unga and Manase Tonga.

As proven in the Oklahoma game BYU has the talent to play with athletic teams and win.

TCU Defense Remains One of the Best in College Football

TCU, while replacing a large number of starters of defense, many of whom are where drafted into the NFL, replaced these stalwarts with experienced backups, some with much more raw talent than the veterans they replaced.

TCU is currently No. 4 in Total Defense, allowing just 238 yards per game, No. 8 in Rushing Defense allowing just over 81 yards per game (though this number is inflated by playing at Air Force two weeks ago as Air Force is responsible for about one half of all of TCU’s opponents’ rushing yards), No. 9 in Pass Defense, allowing just over 150 yards per game, and No. 10 in Scoring Defense, allowing just over thirteen points per game.

TCU has remained atop the national defensive charts and looks to fight to regain the title of “Best Defense in College Football”.

Counter-Point

TCU’s defense is very good.

Yet, BYU has proven they can play and move the ball against good defenses. Oklahoma’s defense is ranked eighth in total defense, fifth in rushing defense (higher than TCU), first in red zone defense (higher than TCU), third in scoring defense (higher than TCU), and fourth in sacks (higher than TCU).

BYU was able to put up over 300 yards passing against the Sooners and win the game.

While BYU has seen a top defense already this season; TCU has not seen a dominate offense. Air Force as you mentioned inflated TCU’s average for rushing yards allowed, but Air Force did put up 229 yards rushing against TCU! Navy, for example, only gave up 183 yards on the ground to Air Force.

Harvey Unga, Manase Tonga, Bryan Kariya, and J.J Di Luigi should all be chomping at the bit to test the defensive front of TCU.

TCU’s Balanced Offense Can Move the Ball in the Air or on the Ground

TCU is ranked No. 22 in Total Offense, even though TCU has faced three top 25 defenses in its first six games. Averaging over 200 yards per game both rushing and passing, opposing defenses must be ready on every play for TCU to switch things up.

Junior QB Andy Dalton leads the Frogs on offense as a third-year starter at offense. He is a true dual-threat QB, able to win a game with his running ability if necessary. Dalton averages forty yards per game rushing. Against Clemson, Dalton rushed 19 times for 86 yards, as well as passing for 226 yards and two touchdowns.

This year, the TCU running back corps is deeper than ever, led by Senior Joseph Turner. Turner is assisted by two freshmen, Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker. Together, the three are averaging 150 yards per game and ten touchdowns.

Against CSU last Saturday, TCU used 14 different rushes, combining for 275 yards. The leading rusher for the Frogs was another young man, Skye Dawson, who had 47 yards on two carries.

At wide receiver, TCU no longer relies so much on Jimmy Young, who had almost one thousand yards last season. Antoine Hicks, Bart Johnson, and Jeremy Kerley have all made valuable contributions receiving for the Frogs, thereby challenging opponents with a more wide ranging passing attack.

TCU has been reserving a number of new plays on offense for this game, just like the WildFrog was saved for last year’s game. Do not be surprised if yet another new wrinkle to the offense blasts through the Cougar defense.

Counter-Point

TCU’s offense can move the ball, except when it counts. TCU is ranked 40th in red zone offense, and they convert just 44 percent of their third-down attempts.

Dalton is dangerous on the ground, but his arm at times lacks accuracy. TCU’s offense also has a problem with starting slow, and relying on their defense to provide field position for them.

There is no guarantee that TCU’s defense will be able to slow down BYU’s offense enough to provide short fields to work with.

TCU has a better offense this season; however, BYU’s defense is also improved. TCU will find it hard to move the ball in Provo like they did last season in Fort Worth.

Jeremy Kerley Is a Game Changer

Last year, TCU brought in Wide Receiver Jeremy Kerley in the “WildFrog” formation. Kerley proved extremely dangerous and had 77 yards rushing on nine attempts, including a touchdown.

The WildFrog was a surprise saved by Coach Patterson just for the BYU. This year TCU has new "secret" plays ready to unleash against the Cougars.

Kerley has made quite the name for himself over the last three weeks with two punts returned for touchdowns, the most recent of which was highlighted on SportsCenter .

Kerley is currently No. 6 in the country in punt returns, averaging over 17 yards per return.

With a wildcard like Kerley (and a few others) in the mix, TCU can use its athleticism to quickly change a game and demoralize opponents.

Counter-Point

No argument Kerley is really good. He is a game changer, and BYU has struggled covering kickoffs this season. Kerley’s return against Colorado State is definitely worth watching!

The “WildFrog” will not be a surprise this season for BYU’s defense. Last year BYU’s defense had little to no answer when a team would run the Wildcat formation.

Yet, this season is different. Tulane, Florida State, UNLV, and San Diego State all ran the Wildcat formation against BYU. BYU’s defense is able to contain high-quality athletes who have run the Wildcat against them this season.

Speaking of game changers, statically the best returner in the Mountain West Conference will be lining up for BYU. O’Neill Chambers is ranked in the top ten in kickoff return yardage, which is above TCU’s Kerley. TCU might not be the only team to get a spark from their special teams on Saturday.

A Rivalry Already?

Outside of a two-game series with BYU in the late Eighties and three years together in the SuperWAC in the '90s, TCU had little history with BYU when the Frogs joined the MWC.

Both TCU and BYU entered the 2005 season coming off losing seasons in 2004. Even so, the 2005 TCU-BYU game quickly set the tone for this series and quickly began a serious rivalry.

TCU had upset Oklahoma in Norman to start the season, only to lose inexplicably at SMU the next week. TCU then ended Utah’s 18-game winning streak in a controversial overtime win.

In Provo, BYU jumped out to a 34-16 third quarter lead and knocked out TCU starting QB Tye Gunn. Under the leadership of Jeff Ballard, TCU came back and took its first lead at 44-41 with 1:25 left in the game. BYU tied up the game to force overtime with a final field goal.

In overtime, TCU scored a still controversial touchdown (at least in Utah), but one that withstood replay review and then BYU failed to convert its PAT after its overtime touchdown and lost 51-50. TCU went on to win dominate the Mountain West Conference and finish the season 11-1.

In 2006, TCU started the season with big wins over Texas Tech and Baylor looked to continue its domination of the Mountain West Conference. Instead, BYU came to Fort Worth and had a huge upset of TCU, winning 31-17, in a game that was not as close as the final score. TCU went on to lose to Utah the next week before righting the ship and finishing 11-2.

TCU claims that BYU intentionally over-watered the field in 2007 in an effort to slow TCU’s speedy players. The game was another close one in relatively down year for TCU, as BYU held on to win 27-22.

Last year, TCU planned the whole off-season for BYU. New plays were developed, the TCU tackling dummy donned a BYU helmet (which is still there today), and Gary Patterson and his staff prepared a massive trap for the then top ten Cougars.

BYU, in the middle of its “Quest for Perfection” and the subject of the BCS media circus, found itself smacked around. The Cougars were never in the game and Max Hall and the nation were introduced to Jerry Hughes. As noted above, TCU dominated the game and could have piled up the points to have a truly massive blowout, as BYU appeared incapable of doing anything against TCU.

For TCU, BYU is the Frogs’ chief rival in conference. Even though Utah has won three straight against TCU, TCU does not view with the same emotional significance. Only if Utah can pull yet another inexplicable win over TCU will Utah rise to BYU’s prominence in the minds of most Frogs.

Conclusion

Before the season I predicted this game at 31-24, giving BYU a chance here. I’ll stick with it today, though I would not be surprised if it became a low scoring defensive struggle. TCU likes those, having lost only one game ever under Patterson when their opponent scored less than seventeen points.

ESPN GameDay's Coming to Provo, but Will Anyone Actually See TCU "Versus" BYU?

Pete Misthaufen — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:27:19 -0400

In an amazing turn of events and a decided show of respect, ESPN has announced that its GameDay program will broadcast this Saturday from Provo, Utah, the site of the battle between No. 8 TCU and No. 16 BYU this Saturday.

ESPN decided to do this in spite of the fact that the TCU-BYU game will be broadcast on the Versus network.

ESPN has previously had GameDay at locations of games broadcast by CBS or NBC, but those were games with BCS conference powers. Utah hosted GameDay in 2004 on the day of the BYU-Utah game, but the Mountain West Conference was then affiliated with ESPN.

Versus and DirectTV

Versus is available normally in 77 million households, but many will be missing a chance to watch the game.

Versus is currently missing from the channels available for DirectTV customers as part of a dispute between Versus and DirectTV. The dispute is not about money, so much as power.

Versus, owned by cable giant and DirectTV competitor Comcast, wants to remain in a lower tier and thereby have more viewers. DirectTV wants Versus on a higher, premium tier that would earn DirectTV more money.

To effectively compete as a sports channel, Versus needs to increase its presence in American households. It can not accept DirectTV's position without becoming even more a of niche station.

The current DirectTV boycott lowered Versus' total households below 70 million, which would place some of its contracts in jeopardy, including the Mountain West Conference contract.

To counteract this problem, DishNetwork has offered Versus free to all of its customers, which places Versus back over the 70 million mark, at least for the meanwhile.

Whose Head Will Corso Put on?

This game would have been better if BYU had not failed to adequately prepare and plan for Florida State. A game between a 7-0 BYU and a 6-0 TCU would have featured a battle of top 10 teams.

As is, it will still be the game of the day and one of the best contests of this college football season. The teams have split their last four meetings, with TCU destroying BYU's BCS hopes last season, 32-7, in Fort Worth.

The GameDay broadcast serves as an unofficial recognition by ESPN that the Mountain West Conference is the de facto seventh BCS conference.

Maybe the MWC will get a broadcast deal reflecting that status in the near future, along with the actual BCS nod.

In the end, Lee Corso will don some headgear. While he will fake with Cosmo, Corso will ultimately go with SuperFrog to the boos of the BYU students.

At least Corso will not have to worry about profanity or drunken fans in Provo.

Sorry Longhorns, The Best Team in Texas Is TCU

Pete Misthaufen — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 21:06:07 -0400

The best college football team in Texas played in North Texas on Saturday.

But the team did not play in Dallas in the middle of the Texas State Fair at the old Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma.

Instead, they played in Fort Worth.

That's right. I am calling it like I see it and this year Longhorns football is behind its fellow former Southwest Conference member TCU. It's the case not only now, but maybe for years to come.

Texas may have been the best team in college football last year, no matter what the BCS said. This year, the Horns have seriously regressed and look extremely beatable.

TCU, on the other hand, has built on last season's No. 7 finish to create another dominant team that looks like it will end the season undefeated.

While both teams possess superior defenses, Texas seems to lack the intangible qualities that make a team great.

Colt McCoy seems much worse as a QB this year as compared to last year.

Texas has been hurt by injuries on offense, but a team of such superior recruits should have enough depth to overcome such obstacles.

Of course, Mack Brown has seriously underperformed with his talent, having only one Big 12 championship in his 11 seasons.

TCU, kicked to the curb by Texas with the demise of the Southwest Conference, is poised to win its fifth conference championship since Brown has been at Texas.

Speaking of the Southwest Conference, ranking the teams from the old conference is very interesting today. I would put it like this:

1. TCU

2. Texas

3. Houston

4. Texas Tech

5. Baylor

6. SMU

7. Texas A&M

8. Rice

If Arkansas is added back into the mix, they would jump in at No. 5.

Too bad the SWC did not expand instead of imploding. How nice would it be if the old SWC had kept Arkansas and added a few out-of-Texas teams for a solid 12-team conference.

It is not like the old Big Eight was any better than the old SWC anyway. With OU, Oklahoma State, and, say, a Colorado in the mix, it would have been a top conference.

Oh, well, the Frogs are on top of Texas football today and look to continue on this track for some time.

I guess then, for the Longhorns, it's good that they're in a different conference.

TCU's Gary Patterson Not Drinking BCS Kool-Aid Yet, Still Thirsty for More Wins

Pete Misthaufen — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:21:06 -0400

Please do not mention the BCS to TCU head coach Gary Patterson.

He does not want to hear about it. He does not want to think about it. And Patterson especially does not want his players to think about the BCS.

"I am not drinking that Kool-Aid!" is one typical statement from Patterson.

Patterson knows that TCU has two of its hardest remaining games over the next two weeks, as TCU hosts Colorado State this week and travels to BYU next week.

After that, only a home matchup with Utah and a late November game at a revitalized Wyoming stand in the way of an undefeated regular season, as the three other opponents are at the bottom of the Mountain West Conference.

Patterson said "The competition is tough enough we don't have time to focus on the BCS. Right now, we have all we want with the Rams of Colorado State."

Patterson also knows the dangers of having a team look ahead to the postseason, rather than focus on the next game.

In 2003, the Frogs started off 10-0, with wins over Arizona, Vanderbilt, South Florida, Louisville, and Cincinnati and reached the No. 6 in the BCS standings before losing at SMU and costing the Frogs a chance at being the first BCS Buster.

In 2005, TCU took out Oklahoma on the road, only to lose the next week to SMU on the road. TCU would not lose another game that season and finish just outside of a BCS spot.

In 2006, TCU defeated Texas Tech and jumped up the national rankings, only to have BYU come in the next week and dominate the Frogs.

Even last year, the Frogs, in spite of an early season loss to Oklahoma, were on the verge of gaining a BCS berth after stopping Utah on the road for 59 minutes, before finding a way to lose.

Patterson will use of these upsets to try and keep his team focused on the Rams and not on the idea of the BCS.

He also has a few other great examples of would-be BCS Busters from this season to help his team keep their focus.

After defeating Oklahoma in its season opener, BYU inexplicably fell at home to a very talented Florida State team that seems to find a way to lose almost every week. BYU coaches and players have admitted that they failed to adequately focus and prepare for the Seminoles.

Houston, has defeated three BCS conference teams this year, including two on the road, but inexplicably fell to hapless UTEP.

And just this week, Boise State, coming off a bye week, struggled and barely survived against a Tulsa team that lost 45-0 to the Sooners who were lacking Sam Bradford.

Patterson knows that any team can rise up and pull off an upset against an unfocused team. Thinking about the BCS destroys a team's focus as fast as anything.

So, keep that BCS Kool-Aid well away from TCU. They want none of it, at least until they can get through the next few games.

TCU Not Overlooking Colorado State

Pete Misthaufen — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:31:54 -0400

With an epic battle coming up next week in Provo against BYU, one might forgive the Texas Christian Horned Frogs (5-0) for overlooking the Colorado State Rams (3-3) this Saturday.

After all, the Rams, after starting 3-0 with road wins over Colorado and Nevada, have lost their last three contests.

A closer look at the Rams' last three opponents (with two games on the road) reveals that they only have three losses between them, all to BCS conference schools.

An even closer look at the three games reveals that the Rams found a way to lose three winnable games.

Colorado State outgained BYU by 50 yards and won the time of possession battle. However, two interceptions and a blocked punt helped BYU jump out to a 21-point lead and cruise for the rest of the game.

Against Idaho, the Rams jumped out to a 14-point lead and outgained the Vandals, only to find a way to let Idaho come back in the game and win 31-29.

Last Saturday, in frigid conditions, Colorado State led Utah, 17-3, with less than 20 minutes left in the game, only to see Utah come back and win 24-17.

Colorado State averages just over 370 yards per game on offense and gives up over 400 yards per game. TCU is giving up under 250 yards per game and averages over 200 yards per game both rushing and passing.

Colorado State will most likely go bowling again this year and have an outside chance of going 8-4, as the schedule gets much easier for the Rams after playing the last of the Mountain West's Big Three.

The Frogs are not looking ahead to BYU, as Colorado State is a very dangerous team that could find a way to keep the game close and competitive.

Even so, TCU should win this game easily, especially if the Frogs have nice weather after three consecutive bad weather games. TCU Head Coach Gary Patterson has never lost to Colorado State and the Rams are scoring just over eight points a game against Patterson's Frogs.

Look for the Frogs to be 6-0 next week when they travel to Provo for the battle to determine the Mountain West Conference champion.

Too High to Win? Can TCU Play in The Mountains?

Pete Misthaufen — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 19:25:30 -0400

This Saturday the TCU Horned Frogs begin their annual expeditions into the mountains of the American West with a game in Colorado Springs at the Air Force Academy.

Given that TCU's home field is located at a relatively low altitude at six hundred twenty-eight feet above sea level, some people may believe that the Frogs will fall to the wayside mainly due to the playing a number of games four thousand feet of more above the hills of north Texas.

The Mountain West Conference is truly a conference located high in the mountains. Of the eight highest altitude stadiums in FBS college football, six are the home stadiums of MWC teams (with only Utah State's Romney Stadium and Colorado's Folsom Field being out of the conference).

The highest of these is War Memorial Stadium in Laramie, Wyoming, at over seven thousand two hundred feet. The second highest is Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs.

So, how have the Frogs done playing in the altitude?

The results may be surprising to some.

In its entire history, TCU has played in the state of Utah eight times, four of which have occurred in the last four years as a member of the Mountain West Conference. TCU has two wins ever in the state of Utah, where the lowest stadium is Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo at 4650 feet.

TCU defeated BYU in 2005 51-50 in a massive come-back. The Frogs were down 41-29 in the 3rd quarter and BYU had knocked starting TCU quarterback Tye Gunn out of the game. Jeff Ballard came in for the Frogs and pulled out the win, going 8-12 passing the ball, with two touchdowns.

TCU's other win in Utah occurred in 1984 at Utah State.

At Wyoming, the Frogs have split the two games played at Laramie's 7215 foot elevation War Memorial Stadium, losing in 2007 and blowing out the Pokes in 2005.

In Colorado, the Frogs have gone 3-3 over the years, with the last loss being in overtime to the Falcons in 2007, in a game where Air Force came back from being down 17-3. The Rams have not defeated the Frogs since TCU joined the Mountain West Conference.

The Frogs have played five games in New Mexico, where the stadium sits at over 5100 feet above sea level. The Frogs have not lost to New Mexico since 1996 when Gary Patterson was the Lobos' defensive coordinator, going 2-0 at New Mexico since joining the MWC.

Counting all games TCU has ever played at over thirty-five hundred feet, TCU is 11-14. Counting just the games played since Gary Patterson arrived at TCU as the defensive coordinator in 1998, TCU is 9-6. Since joining the MWC in 2005, TCU is 7-5 in games played at 4600 feet or higher, with three of those losses coming in 2007's 8-5 season.

So, does TCU underachieve in altitude?

In 2005, TCU the Frogs went undefeated in conference in a 11-1 season, winning three games at high altitude.

In 2006, TCU lost two games in conference, going 11-2 overall. The losses were at BYU and to Utah at home.

In 2007, TCU went 4-4 in conference play, losing three of those games at high altitude.

In 2008, TCU went 7-1 in conference, losing only at eventual No. 2 Utah in the final minute.

Overall, the Frogs have lost five conferences games in altitude by a total of thirty-one points, with only one game losing by more than five points.

Conclusion

It appears as those it matters little where TCU plays the games. TCU has done well at high altitude in good seasons and underachieved in 2007, losing three close games.

Will Saturday's game against Air Force be a epic battle between the nation's best rushing defense against one of the nation's best rushing offense? Yes, but the altitude and the mountains should provide little more than a scenic backdrop for the game.

Bad weather will impact the game much more than the altitude, but the Frogs have won back to back games in downpours.

I stick to my earlier prediction and call it 34-17 for the Frogs.

TCU-SMU: Will This Ever Be a Rivalry Again?

Pete Misthaufen — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:07:17 -0400

As TCU prepares for the 89th "Battle for the Iron Skillet" with the SMU Mustangs, the question remains if this will ever be a true rivalry again.

TCU has dominated the rivalry since SMU came back from the death penalty, winning fourteen of the last nineteen contests.

For those unfamilar with the NCAA "death penalty", it is a total ban on all play for one season, with further sanctions prior to full reactivation into the sport. Since the SMU death penalty, no team has received similar treatment.

Prior to the death penalty, SMU had won fifteen games in a row against TCU when SMU was experiencing its period of greatest success as the "Best Team Money Could Buy".

For TCU fans, the question has risen whether it is worthwhile to having the annual drag on their strength of schedule by playing the perennially weak Mustangs.

Sure, June Jones came to town with the goal of fixing the program, but success still appears distant for SMU.

This year, TCU enters the game as a four touchdown favorite against a team that has not held an opponent under twenty-one points in its last thirty games.

SMU hopes to use the spread offense to come back regain national significance and does not appear to have built even a halfway decent defense. SMU, which adopted extremely high recruiting standards in wake of the death penalty, has recently liberalized these policies in an effort to win.

Now, SMU, for those too young to remember, is a program with substantial tradition and history. Doak Walker won the 1948 Heisman trophy. The Ponies have one recognized national championship in 1935, as well as three "other" national championship years according to College Football Data Warehouse.

The Mustangs finished in the AP Top Ten six times, most recently in 1984. But the Ponies have not been competitive since receiving the death penalty in 1987.

Now, SMU's demise has largely been a benefit to other schools with large numbers of NCAA infractions. No program has received the death penalty since (even ones with many clear and substantial violations).

Under current enforcement policies, SMU would probably have been required to only vacate some wins and have a few scholarship restrictions.

So, where does the rivalry stand today?

SMU has defeated TCU under Coach Gary Patterson just one time, in 2005. TCU, coming off a road win over Oklahoma as a huge underdog, lost by eleven at SMU as a huge favorite the next week. TCU then went on to win the rest of its games on its way to a 11-1 season and the Mountain West Conference championship in its first year in the conference.

TCU should roll on Saturday in its final OOC tune-up. TCU worries more about pranks by SMU students than the SMU football team. TCU will continue to beat down SMU for many years to come.

College Football's Top Ten, Oh, No! The Curse Of Over-Ranking

Pete Misthaufen — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:23:54 -0400

Four Top Ten teams lost this weekend, making a total of ten different top 10 teams that already have lost in just the first four weeks of the season.

Two of the teams, Ole Miss and Penn State, had been completely untested prior to last week's games.

Only three of the original AP preseason top ten remain undefeated (and only four of the USA Today top ten).

Did the experts get it all wrong, or is there something else in play?

We have seen the result of over-ranking teams, or, as I call it, the Curse of the Top Ten.

Being in the Top Ten is a burden. Expectations soar. Everyone expects the team to dominate its opponents, when in reality, the program is no better at number nine than it was at number 21.

We need only to look at the last few years to see how this has played out. Thanks to the AP Poll Archive for maintaining all these records.

2007

We think of this season as one of the craziest seasons in college football.

But the preseason AP Top 10 actually included five teams from the final AP Top Ten, with the final top three including the preseason top two, LSU and USC.

In Week One we saw one of the biggest drops ever in the history of the AP Poll, as No. 5 Michigan lost at home to FCS National Champion Appalachian State. Michigan suffered three more losses while bouncing in and out of the Top 25 and would re-enter the final top 25 with a victory over Florida at the Capitol One Bowl.

No. 9 Louisville lost in Week Three to Kentucky, starting the journey to a 6-6 season.

In Week Four, No. 10 Penn State lost to Michigan in a close battle. Penn State finished the season with four losses and no spot in the top 25.

After going through its customary cupcake schedule, No. 4 Florida started its path to a four-loss season by losing to Auburn at home in Week Five.

Florida, always receiving the benefit of the doubt from voters, would hover around the Top 20 the rest of the season and ranked in the AP Top 10 for four additional weeks throughout the season. However, the Gators never made the Coaches' Poll Top 10 again.

Week Six saw two top tens begin their descent. No. 5 Wisconsin (who had start the season at No. 7 in the preseason poll) had barely won a number of games before posting its first of four losses to Illinois. Wisconsin would finish the season at No. 24 for no known reason.

No. 8 Kentucky lost to South Carolina on its way to a five-loss season and finishing unranked.

Week Seven saw No. 2 Cal, needing only a win to take over the No. 1 spot, begin its self-destruction at home against Oregon State. Cal lost six out of seven games before pulling out a win in its bowl game to have a winning season.

In Week Eight, supremely over-ranked No. 2 South Florida began a three-game skid in Big East play. South Florida would finish with four losses and out of the AP Top 25.

Week Eight also saw No. 6 South Carolina (6-1) begin its regular trip to self-destruction, as the Cocks lost their final five games and finished the season unranked.

Week Nine saw No. 6 Arizona State start its decline. The Sun Devils would only drop three places with the loss and would end up in the AP Top 20 even though they lost three of their last five games.

No. 2 Oregon, which had first entered the Top Ten after already having a first loss, began a three-game skid to end the regular season out of the Top 25.

Undefeated Hawaii entered the AP Top Ten at No. 10 on the final poll of the regular season. The Warriors would get man-handled by the Dawgs in the Sugar Bowl, ending the season at No. 19.

These 12 teams all fell apart under the pressure of their undeserved and inflated ranking. These 12 teams would suffer 48 losses between them and all finish out of the AP Top Ten.

2008

While we do not think of 2008 as a crazy year like 2007, it saw a whole lot of shake up in the top ten over the course of the season. Some teams like OU, Texas, Florida, and USC survived defeats to end up in the final top ten.

Nine other schools would rise to the top ten and then crash and burn. Of those nine, five would finish unranked.

In the very first week of the season, No. 9 Clemson looked to open its bid for a BCS game and a possible BCS title berth with a match up with unranked Alabama, in the second year of a rebuilding program under Nick Saban. With a tough defense and an explosive offensive, the Tigers would be remarkable.

Instead, Alabama stomped Clemson so badly that Clemson fell out of the AP Top 25 entirely. Clemson finished the season at 7-6 with a new coach.

Week Four saw No. 10 Auburn lose to No. 6 LSU. Auburn had looked unimpressive in its first three games. Auburn fell apart and won only two more games the rest of the season and also ended up with a new coach.

No. 3 Georgia lost to Alabama in Week Five. Georgia had begun the season at No. 1. Georgia would go on to lose to Georgia Tech and Florida, getting to a 9-3 record for the regular season during a very down year for the SEC.

Also in Week Five, No. 9 Wisconsin lost a close game to Michigan and would finish the season at 7-6.

In Week Six, No. 10 South Florida lost to Pittsburgh and begun its annual pursuit of oblivion. The Bulls have never finished in the AP Top Twenty-Five in their entire history.

In Week Seven, undefeated No. 4 LSU lost to Florida. LSU would go 3-4 the rest of the season and finish unranked.

Also in Week Seven, unbeaten No. 3 Missouri lost to Oklahoma State. Missouri would go on to lose three more games that season.

In Week Eight, undefeated No. 9 BYU got beaten at TCU. BYU would go on to lose two more games and finish at No. 25.

In Week Nine, unbeaten No. 7 Oklahoma State lost to No. 1 Texas. The Pokes only lost two places in the AP Poll, in large part because the next three teams were Boise State, Utah, and TCU. Oklahoma State would go 2-3 the rest of the way.

Ultimately five teams (Auburn, Clemson, LSU, South Florida, and Wisconsin) had no business being anywhere new the top ten and folded under the pressure. The other four ended up with a total of 14 losses between them, demonstrating why they were never worthy of Top Ten status.

Conclusion

Even though this season is only four weeks old, we have already seen these same patterns developing.

So what is the problem? Too much hype for teams? That may work for preseason rankings, but other teams that earned their way into the Top Ten have fallen apart too many times.

How about the pressure of the ranking? Being a Top Ten or Top Five team puts a lot of pressure on a program. Even if they try to avoid it, it is everywhere the players and coaches go.

Expectations reach high levels and for some programs, they do not seem to be able to handle it. I saw more than one comment from an Ole Miss player being happy that the "monkey" of the Top Five ranking was off their back.

Another important factor is injuries, and not just for "skill" players. Losing important defensive players can transform a top defense into a disaster. Likewise, losing a key offensive lineman can cause chaos and led to a upset.

The great teams bounce back from theses setbacks. USC seems to lose one or two every year but has been in the final top four for the last seven years.

Some teams just have more depth. Others just have better coaches. But, ultimately, the fate of the team rests in its ability to bounce back from defeat and try to salvage a season after a devastating loss.

It is just much easier to bounce back when you were not in the Top Ten. The pressure is off. You never lost the BCS bowl crown. You know that every team loses a game or two, so no big deal. Just take care of business and all will be OK.

So, here is my warning to anybody whose team is in the top ten this week: Watch Out! Self-destruction may be around the corner and 6-0 can quickly become 6-6. Just ask Cal, Clemson, Louisville, and South Florida.

A Pac-12 in 2011? Hints Abound!

Pete Misthaufen — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:07:33 -0400

Conference expansion and realignment talk is usually a topic for the offseason.

Normally, I would strongly hesitate to bring up the issue during the middle of another great college football season.

However, recently, hints and rumors are spreading out of the Pac-10 that indicate something is afoot.

The idea of Pac-10 expansion has been around since the Pac-8 became the Pac-10 in 1978 with the addition of Arizona and Arizona State. Schools such as BYU and Utah have been practically begging for admission to the conference for three decades.

Yet, the Pac-10 has the gone the longest of any FBS conference in America without any changes.

Now, Pac-10 supporters have long argued that they do need to expand, that the conference is at its best today with no room for improvement.

In many ways they are right, but national perception of the conference has hindered the Pac-10.

Looking at the Pac-10's Problems

As other conferences such as the Big Ten and SEC have entered into massive television deals, the Pac-10 has increasingly been left behind. Instead, most of the country rarely sees a Pac-10 game, unless it is USC taking on a Notre Dame or Ohio State.

As other conferences have gained respect for BCS national titles, the Pac-10 sits with only one BCS title and with only two at large bids to BCS games.

USC, having finished in the top four for the last seven years, has been repeatedly denied a berth in the BCS title game, largely due to a perceived weakness in the Pac-10 conference.

So, simply put the Pac-10 has four major problems:

1. Inferior television deals;

2. Weak bowl tie-ins;

3. Low revenue relative to other top conferences; and

4. Poor conference national perception.

Enter Larry Scott

The recent hire of former Women's Tennis Association president Larry Scott has strongly demonstrated that the Pac-10 is finally looking to improve its status.

Since joining the conference, Larry Scott has worked aggressively to promote the Pac-10.

He finalized a new bowl deal with the Alamo Bowl, giving the Pac-10 a significant upgrade in both payout and visibility.

Scott has been busy defending its reputation.

Scott was out in front of the Blount issue and put the Pac-10 on the moral high ground with the strong discipline set forth.

So what more does Scott need to do?

Expansion?

Another thing Scott has done is talk with the media. In a recent interview with a Phoenix sports-talk station, Scott discussed his ideas for improving the conference.

In looking at home to improve the conference, including getting better television deals, Scott mentioned that expanding the conference and adding a conference championship game is a on-going part of the internal discussions.

ESPN.com Pac-10 blogger Ted Miller discussed in a post from August that a "informed guy" with a say on expansion had recently informed him that conference expansion was something under discussion for the next two years, with Colorado and Utah as being the two ideal targets.

All well and good, but I gave little consideration of this issue until another piece of news came out recently.

Washington State University cancelled a planned 2011 trip play at Hawaii and will pay $300,000, citing "uncertain changes in the Pac-10 scheduling."

Now, that is very odd and most likely too much truth.

Given the current state of the Wazzu program, a end-of-season trip to Hawaii is the closest thing that this team will have to a bowl game for many, many years. Fans would likely travel with the team in decent numbers.

The team will save no money from canceling the trip so we must take the reason at face value.

Wazzu has some reason to believe that the Pac-10 scheduling is going to radically change in two seasons.

This can mean only one of two things:

1. The Pac-10 is dropping the infamous round-robin nine-game conference schedule, which has resulted in five extra losses among conference teams as well as uneven schedules.

Or.

2. The conference is seriously looking at expansion by the 2011 season, which is when the Pac-10 will be negotiating new television deals.

Now, a central part of any new television deal could be a conference championship game. If so, a Pac-12 would need to be in place.

Conclusion

While this is nothing that putting together some hints and rumors, there appears to be enough evidence to show a strong possibility of real change taking place in the Pac-10.

Utah and Colorado are both logical targets. Each is a flagship state university with a strong research component, in line with the academic ideals of the Pac-10. Taking the two schools together, they provide additional television markets roughly similar in size to any of the Pac-10 pairs (except of course USC and UCLA).

Both schools would be competitive in a number of sports and both have had national status in football at various times.

Now, Utah would jump to the Pac-12 without a moments hesitation, in spite of loud statements in the past that Utah will only move with BYU.

Colorado is a more interesting case. In its heyday, the Buffs successfully recruited in Southern California, something that appears to have dropped off in recent years.

The Buffs rose to national prominence during the final years of the Big Eight, but have only finished in the top twenty-five three times since the formation of the Big Twelve.

A change of conference may be what the doctor ordered for the Buffs.

So, it is unlikely that we will see much develop prior to the end of the 2010 season, but hints and rumors will become more prominent.