Bleacher Report - Articles by Anthony Constable

2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Second Round Predictions

Anthony Constable — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 06:28:41 -0400

Now the real fun starts! With a decent look at the first round and how teams are shaping up, I'm going to enter my predictions for the rest of the playoffs.

Eastern Conference

Semi Finals

No. 1 Boston vs. No. 6 Carolina

Prediction - Boston in Six

Boston is dominant, and with a first round sweep under their belts, you have to believe their confidence is running high. Confidence should also be high for Carolina who pulled off quite an upset in the final 80 seconds of game seven vs. the New Jersey Devils. Boston will take the first two games, games three and four will be split, Carolina will steal a game in Boston in OT, before heading home and being shut down in game six. Everything is just clicking for Boston this year, and this series shouldn't offer much shock value.

No. 2 Washington vs. No. 4 Pittsburgh

Prediction - Washington in Five

Unless the NHL rigs this series to last seven games, Washington shouldn't have too much trouble with Pittsburgh. You can talk Crosby and Malkin for hours, but I personally don't believe in any sort of depth that Pittsburgh claims to have. Washington hammered New York through the first round with a phenomenal fore check, and this will trouble the Penguins defense. Fleury will still look good in this series, but he will not be able to steal the show from Ovechkin and the rest of the Capitals.

Finals

No. 1 Boston vs No. 2 Washington

Prediction - Boston in Seven

How simple to pick the top two seeds right? Well, I just know there is a good reason these two teams played well all season. Washington doesn't have an ounce of quit in them, and they will push every game to its limit. However, Varlamov will start to show his inexperience by this point in the playoffs. Boston will take full advantage of every youthful mistake the Capitals make, and find themselves coming out on top.

Western Conference

Semi Finals

No. 2 Detroit vs. No. 8 Anaheim

Prediction - Detroit in Seven

In some ways Anaheim is a better team than when they won the Stanley Cup, and that has shown in their first round upset of the President's Trophy winning San Jose Sharks. Detroit is one the best looking defending Stanley Cup Champions in a long time. This is going to be a good series, not for flashy goal scoring, not for ridiculous highs and lows, but because it will be good old fashioned hockey. Anaheim is going to bump and bruise Detroit; Detroit is going skate hard and use every inch of the ice. In the end, Detroit has the skill and experience to repeat as Stanley Cup champions and their journey won't end in this series.

No. 3 Vancouver vs. No. 4 Chicago

Prediction - Chicago in Six

Vancouver has one of the best goalies going, and a very solid defense that will put a wall in front of the young Blackhawks. However, the Blackhawks seem to run so deep, that it would seem impossible that Vancouver would even have enough defensemen to keep a constant watch on them. This is going to be a close series, and I feel almost wrong predicting on it, because, in my opinion, whichever team does come out on top will be going on to win the Stanley Cup finals.

Finals

No. 2 Detroit vs. No. 4 Chicago

Prediction - Chicago in Seven

This series will almost certainly come down to goal-tending, and I will always give the edge in goal-tending to Khabibulin. Detroit will run into a similar problem with Chicago, in trying to contain their depth, which will only push the series further because of their own offensive threat, a threat that Vancouver simply couldn't offer Chicago.

Stanley Cup Finals

No. 1 Boston vs. No. 4 Chicago

Prediction - Chicago in Seven

Boston has had an unbelievable season; it's definitely been a shock to a lot of people to see their dominance. Chicago seemed destined going into the season, this was their eventual RIGHT, and they will just realize it earlier than many predicted. It's because of these two factors that Boston will see its game start to crack. I imagine a few players will pick up the "yips" and just lose their game for no apparent reason. Chicago will feel their destiny ever so close and unlike the Penguins before them, they won't let it slip away.

A Lot of Focus on Bryan Murray Heading into Mar. 4 Trade Dealine

Anthony Constable — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 16:16:31 -0500

Ottawa Senators GM Bryan Murray needs to be deliberate and cautious with any moves he plans to make at this years trading deadline. There is an overall vibe that ownership could be lining Murray up to be let go in the off season.

Acquiring Mike Comrie and Chris Campoli from the New York Islanders was a winning move for Murray, but it takes a longer look to realize this. Dean McAmmond and San Jose's first-round pick were shipped in the other direction, and if you break down the value of those, you can really understand what Murray might have been thinking.

McAmmond has no doubt passed on any leadership qualities he possesses, and now sits at the end of the bench and underused. San Jose's pick is going to be very low, its value would be best found in a defenseman for the Senators.

Chris Campoli is a young puck moving defenseman, who has gained valuable playing experience with the Islanders, but still holds potential to raise his game in a hockey market like Ottawa.

Mike Comrie has expressed regret about leaving Ottawa, and if that is true the Senators might be able to reach a deal to resign him. If the Senators can resign Comrie this summer, then this deal is a lot better than it originally appears.

Even if Comrie leaves town, however, then Bryan Murray has picked up a defenseman far beyond the abilities of anyone he would pick up with San Jose's first pick.

Beyond the deal already made, there still remains the question of possible deals to come. Should Bryan Murray try to add another piece and expect this team to carry themselves out of the basement, or should he try to add pieces for a little off season tweaking to build a team for next season?

Either way, Bryan Murray may not have a lot of time left at the helm, and so he needs to pick his moves wisely.

It looks like the curtain has dropped on this season for the Senators. They would need a record like 20-4 down the stretch, and while this certainly isn't out of their capabilities, it's a lot of pressure to place a team.

While it appears that one of two moves to bulk up the team could set them over the top to make a run like that, if they fail it could leave them lacking a few things that would come in quite handy next season.

If you take a look at the things that Ottawa has been lacking this season, it might give you a better look at what they need to add in order to make an ill-advised run to the playoffs.

Scoring has been a serious problem this season in the capital city. You would expect Murray to add a catalyst for the offense, and Comrie was a good move in that direction. One more similar player added, and you could see Ottawa's potent offensive threat reappear.

It would come at a high cost, and giving anything up in return could heavily effect their chances next season. At this point, trading for another player coming into UFA this off season would be a terrible decision.

Defense has been good, defensively, but they are lacking the offensive touch from the back end that they once possessed. Chris Campoli was a good addition to cure this problem, but if Murray actually expects this team to make a 20-4 stretch run, then he absolutely needs to add another puck moving defenseman.

If bringing back Comrie was any indication, then maybe Murray should look to bring back Joe Corvo. The truth is, after Ottawa hit the Stanley Cup finals, they simply let too many players go, and turned over their defensive lines far too much, and it shows in their play since then.

Logically the Senators GM should look to add pieces for next season, but not any further into the future. If Murray can't make a move that will help next season, then he should hold tight, and hope to make a splash in the free-agent market this offseason. Perhaps focus on getting Mike Comrie under a new contract.

This team is still not far removed from their Stanley Cup run, but they need to get back players to fill the role of offensively capable defenseman that made such an impact for them before.

Should be an interesting deadline for Ottawa, and their GM, as it may be his last at the helm of the Ottawa Senators.

Ottawa Senators Get Head Start on Offseason: Who to Keep?

Anthony Constable — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 01:22:11 -0400

The only advantage of a first round sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins, is that Senators GM, Bryan Murray, now has a few extra months to consider his options.

Ottawa has a reasonable number of unrestricted free agents to consider as July approaches. The list consists of Wade Redden, Cory Stillman, Chris Kelly, Randy Robitaille, Martin Lapointe, Shean Donovan, Mike Commodore, Luke Richardson, Matt Carkner, and Niko Dimitrakos.

1. Wade Redden

With his 31st birthday around the corner, the Saskatchewan native has a cloud floating around his head. He is the make or break decision of Ottawa's free agent season this year, and he is very much aware of this fact.

Redden put up 32 assists and 38 points this season, and he also had an +11 rating.

It all seems reasonable, until you notice Redden was the highest paid Senator this season. Reasonable isn't worth $6.5 million a year.

Constant disappearing acts also plagued his season. It would take more than one or two good games to overshadow the five consecutive bad game streaks he consistently posted. Inconsistency appeared to be Redden's trademark.

Final Verdict

The Senators cannot afford to move forward paying Redden almost 15 percent of their cap room. It's nothing personal against Redden—he has given Ottawa 11 excellent seasons of character and contribution.

The deciding factor in deciding to resign Redden or let him go is simply money. Redden isn't worth the money, and he has lost his reliability somewhere in his wallet, crushed under all his unearned money. Thanks for the memories Wade, but you've gotta go.

2. Cory Stillman

He is a champion of hockey through and through. Two consecutive Stanley Cup rings never looked bad on a resume.

However, it seems Stillman has lost some of the good luck charm appeal. First, missing the playoffs with Carolina last season, and now being swept in the first round with Ottawa.

You can't argue with his numbers, especially when you consider what Ottawa is used to on the second line. Three goals and 16 assists in 24 games with the Senators is certainly worth considering.

Stillman also did good power play work with the Senators. Although he only had the one point, he created chances, and the power play of the team was weak overall to begin with.

Final Verdict

Stillman is a judgment call for Bryan Murray, and there is no clear answer on the man. He put up decent numbers, doesn't carry a heavy cap burden (at $1.75 million), and has plenty of character and experience.

Personally, I would try to resign a guy like Cory Stillman. Maybe we thought of you as a rental during deadline season, Cory, but I think you should stick around.

3. Mike Commodore

When he first arrived in Ottawa from Carolina, Commodore was expected to put a big body presence in front of the Senators’ net.

There certainly was a big body there, but it didn't appear to be doing much.

Not heavily noted for his offensive contributions, Commodore needed to contribute more of the physical defense style he is known for.

Commodore's only noticeable stat was a glaringly poor rating of -9 in 26 games with the Senators.

Final Verdict

Commodore was making $1.3 million last season and appeared to be earning that in Carolina. After moving to Ottawa, however, his stock plummeted due to costly giveaways and poor defensive coverage.

Perhaps it can all be attributed to new team jitters, but it doesn't change the fact. Unfortunately for Commodore, his jitters will cost him his spot on the team, and he will likely return to Carolina.

I have nothing to say to you, Mike. Get off my team.

4. Martin Lapointe

He was brought into Ottawa to provide veteran leadership and grit, his obvious assets.

Lapointe did provide leadership. He worked well when he occasionally played a line with Antoine Vermette, who seemed to have more chances in front of the net than ever.

His grit was never in question. He could hit, and hit he did. Lapointe is a tough player who isn't afraid of the rough places on the ice.

Not to mention his six points in 18 games was just an added bonus.

Final Verdict

Bryan Murray went after Lapointe to bulk up for the players. Now that it's obvious Ottawa needs some help, the smart decision here would be to let him go.

Thanks for making Antoine Vermette look good, Marty. Best of luck in your final NHL years.

5. Chris Kelly

Mostly playing a defensive role in Ottawa, he is a key to the Senators’ penalty kill.

Chris Kelly is a player that doesn't shoot enough and often doesn't get as many chances to shoot as you'd like.

19 assists and 30 points in his 75 regular season games looks good considering a good portion of his minutes are penalty kill minutes.

GM Bryan Murray needs to gather as much cap room as he possibly can. However, Kelly's $1.2 million contract is certainly worth every penny.

Final Verdict

Resign this kid, are you kidding me? He is Ottawa's number one penalty killer, and always looks good doing it.

Costly turnovers? A rare thing for Chris Kelly, and that's definitely worth noting. His contract is small, his penalty killing is exceptional, and he does contribute up front.

Kelly could produce more offensively if given the opportunity. He got a great opportunity last season when Spezza went down, and a significant portion of his 38 points that season were from playing with Alfredsson and Heatley.

Chris, you're a penalty killing machine, which should earn you a brand new contract. (Note: I apologize for repeating myself more than Pierre McGuire.)

Final Verdict on the Rest of 'Em

No one else of significance remains on the list of possible free agents for the Senators. It's easy to see this set of players didn't benefit the team, and none of them contributed worthwhile offense or defense.

A combined $3.1 million sits with the remaining five players on the list at the top. Nick Foligno, Cody Bass, and Brian Lee showed themselves more than capable of joining the big leagues with their games playing for the Senators this season.

With young guys prepared, it should make it easy to cut these five free agents from the squad and move forward.

2007-2008 Ottawa Senators: The Greatest Downfall?

Anthony Constable — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 03:58:27 -0400

Down three games to none to Sidney Crosby and the surging Pittsburgh Penguins, you'd think Ottawa was dressing a completely different team than the one that started the season 15-2.

That is not the case, however, and so I must go about a difficult process for any hockey fan: a look back at what went wrong.

Leading up to the season there were nothing but high hopes in my heart. This team ran through the Eastern Conference playoffs last year making it look easy, but didn't have what it took to win the Cup. They added important things they lacked, such as grit, playoff experience, and championship experience.

In the end, which is creeping closer, they fell far from where they were a year ago—even three months ago. This is my list of reasons why the Senators have fallen so far from their dominant perch atop the Eastern Conference only a few months ago, in no order of importance.

1. Bryan Murray.

This guy has had his hand in a lot of successful organizations around the NHL. Why isn't Ottawa feeling the same prosperity?

In my opinion Bryan Murray didn't spend enough time evaluating his assets and targeting major holes. He knew he had to make a trade. He wasn't scared to make a trade, but because of improper evaluation of his assets he overvalued and undervalued certain players on the market, which strained all trade negotiations.

There was an obvious problem with secondary scoring that he did not properly address. Cory Stillman is not an answer to this problem. Mike Fisher is not an answer either, and in my opinion probably should've been moved.

Instead of trying to find line mates who connected with Fisher, I would have opted to move him for a more offensively driven player. Instead of juggling Ray Emery and Martin Gerber to start he season, one should have been shipped before any pucks were dropped, by any means necessary.

Murray should now rethink his evaluations and look ahead to this offseason. If he fails to improve the team next season, I think he should be seriously questioned.

2. Injuries.

All of the key players for Ottawa missed at least one game, including Anton Volchenkov, who missed a huge 25 games. It didn't so much affect them in the short term—when they were winning they kept winning regardless, and when they were losing they kept losing.

The impact it had was on chemistry. The sporadic occurrence of injuries in the nation's capital meant line combinations were ever-changing.

Phillips seemed lost at times without his partner in crime, Volchenkov. There is really no replacement for that defensive pairing.

Spezza, Heatley, and Alfredsson work together, and removing one never really seems to work. The main injury of the season was Alfredsson; there's no real arguing that he leads the team on the ice. And nobody really knew what to do with Randy Robitaille

3. John Paddock.

Straight up, the wrong man for the job. Sure he looked like a miracle man at the start of the year, but I really don't think he had anything to do with the team's early success, highlighted by the team's down fall.

Paddock juggled the goalies instead of giving confidence to either. Emery was supposed to be the starter before the season, but due to his injury at the beginning, Gerber stepped in and played very well. Instead of rewarding Gerber, he stuck him on the bench the moment Emery returned.

Bad decision.

Paddock was also notorious for juggling his lines, at times without reason. It seemed that even on nights when everything was clicking, he'd juggle a line.

In my opinion, John Paddock is not an NHL caliber coach.

4. Chemistry.

This team lost its chemistry somewhere along the way, and it was notable in many things. It plagued all aspects of the Sens' game.

Ottawa was bad for costly turnovers, the same team that always seemed to know exactly where to pass the puck last year.

5. Special Teams.

A very sad 22nd ranked penalty kill (81.0%) stands out when looking at Ottawa's special teams. Combine that with a very mediocre 12th ranked power play (18.3%) and you can see a serious problem.

A lot of this stems from the defensive aspect. A lack of defensive chemistry, besides Volchenkov/Phillips, causes poor penalty killing. There's no power play quarterback on the Senators, which also causes the problem with a less-than-stellar power play.

Poor coaching, poor managing, and poor chemistry equals an all-around poor team. Sure it isn't over yet, but it's close enough to start thinking about these things and looking to the future.

What to do in the future you might ask? That would be a whole different article.

Sean Avery: New York Rangers Pest Back on the Tip of Our Tongues

Anthony Constable — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 01:40:03 -0400

First of all, let me begin by saying hello since this is, after all, my first article here on BR. My attention was brought to an ad on another site regarding BR, and I was immediately intrigued.

Upon completion of my registration, the first thing I read was a response to Sean Avery's shenanigans Sunday, and I just couldn't resist. Honestly, I was about to go to sleep, but this article was just far too tempting to put off.

I wouldn't exactly call myself a Sean Avery "fan," but the guy has made more than a few impressions on me. Whether he is making possible racial slurs or waving his hands in front of a goalie, he always seems to be a topic of discussion.

Regardless of your take on Avery, the guy is quickly solidifying himself in Hockey History.

If you look back in the aforementioned Hockey History, you would find a surprising number of famed players who got that fame from classless acts. You would also discover at least one carbon copy of Sean Avery in every generation of hockey.

It's almost frustrating to see professional sports regarded as some holy activity based on class. This sport is built on competition, and the best competitors do whatever it takes.

I will take a moment now to clarify that I don't commend Sean Avery on his actions, and I certainly hope I don't see this happen often. I am of course talking about Avery standing in front of Martin Brodeur, waving his stick and hands in Brodeur's line of vision in order to distract him during the First Round Stanley Cup Playoff game between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils Sunday.

However, the act itself stands as a testament to Avery's style and the nature of playoff hockey.

Let's face it: This is the Stanley Cup people. There isn't a trophy in any sport that is more difficult to win. There isn't a single player in the NHL who wouldn't wave their hands in front of Brodeur for a chance to win the Stanley Cup.

No, Sean Avery won't win the Conn Smythe trophy—at least not for this—but he knows a little something about the difference between regular season and playoff hockey.

I also enjoy his attitude, being that the Eastern Conference is heavily chosen as the underdog to the Western Conference because any Eastern team in the Stanley Cup Finals will need any and every edge they can get. Sean Avery is clearly an "edge" kind of guy.

In a situation like this, it is the principle of the action that stands out to me as opposed to the action itself. Let's face it—the guy looked a little goofy waving his arms around, not even paying attention to the play. It's the fact that he was trying to find a creative way to get his team on the scoreboard.

Sure he was trying to be frustrating, trying to get on Brodeur's nerves, but the root of his actions were to get a goal in the net. The even deeper root of it was the Stanley Cup and his obvious desire to win it.

Honestly, could you imagine if he had a Stanley Cup ring? We'd never hear the end of it, and I'd almost love that. Of course it was unsportsmanlike. He did everything short of tie a blindfold around Brodeur's helmet, but I can't stress enough that the key element here is the principle: Avery was simply doing anything he could think of to win that hockey game.

You think Sean Avery has no class? I really don't think it bothers him when he contributes to his team's success as much as he does.

Looking back to Canada versus Russia in 1972, Canada didn't play classy. In fact they were down right dirty. They had to be; they would have lost playing any other way. People remember Canada won that series, people remember Paul Henderson's goal, but a lot of people forget how brutal and dirty Canada had to play to win.

Jump back to Sean Avery—he's really just playing in the wrong generation of hockey, apparently. He plays no dirtier, with no less class and no less honor, than the hundreds and hundreds of champions in years before.

Somehow we care almost too much about honor and class in this day and age. Our standards are too high. I'm not saying class and honor aren't present in hockey, but I don't see the dishonor or lack of class in Avery.

Simply put, Sean Avery is a solid asset for any team trying to win the Stanley Cup. Not even considering his regular season stats or his four points in three games in the playoffs, he adds a lot more.

He's distracting, both directly and indirectly, he gets in peoples faces, takes them out of a play, either physically or verbally. Players are aware of Avery, I've seen guys completely miss part of a play because they were eyeing him.

Hockey is a fast game, and if a player takes his focus off the puck for a second because Avery has attracted his attention, he could be out of position for the rest of the play, which can always lead to a goal.

Maybe you don't think this tactic has class, maybe it's dirty, dishonorable, not in the nature of the game, but face it—the nature of the game is to win.