Bleacher Report - Articles by William Abel

UFC 103 Main Card Predictions

William Abel — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:23:56 -0400

I don't usually do prediction articles, but it's a slow day at work and I'm thinking, "Why not?"

I'm going to start low and work my way up, leaving the main event for last. Feel free to leave your comments agreeing or disagreeing with me. That's what the comment box is for.

Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca

First off, both have lost to Frankie Edgar and Sean Sherk in their careers. While there's no shame to losing to anyone in UFC's stacked lightweight division, those two losses tell me that both guys have been given the chance to move up and have simply not been able to.

Both guys are hungry and not only do they want a win, but they need a win to stay relevant in the division and move up to better competition once more.

Looking at both men's records, it becomes apparent that Franca does not do well when the fight goes to a decision. Of his seven losses, six have come after going the distance. He does his best work on the ground, where he's twisted, choked and otherwise incapacitated his opponents 11 times in his career.

Tyson Griffin only has two losses in his career, which were given to him by the aforementioned Edgar and Sherk. Otherwise, he's been on a roll in the UFC, with his biggest win probably coming over Clay Guida back in 2007.

One of the main reasons Tyson has not been pushed into even bigger matches yet is because, even in winning, his performances can be drawn out affairs. He's gone to decision in his last 7 fights. He hasn't had a (T)KO or Submission victory is roughly three years. Franca is in the same boat, his last three fights having gone to a decision, as well.

Both men don't just need a win. They need a dynamic win. They need something that makes UFC brass stand up and take notice. Something on the level of a knockout or submission in the first round.

By my estimation, this fight is Franca's to win or lose. For the past three years, Griffin has been willing to leave all of his fights in the hands of the judges. Franca has to do his very best to keep that from happening. Because if the fight goes the distance, Griffin will likely come out on top.

Franca by submission

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg

Twinkle Toes is back, baby! I've always liked Frank Trigg, win or lose. I'm slightly partial to his personality just because I used to watch him and Jay Glazer host the old PRIDE show that used to come on FSN. Good times, my friends. Good times.

But enough about that. On to the fight!

Koscheck has been hot and cold as of late. In his last fight, he was burned by the rising star of Paulo Thiago when he got TKOd for the first time in his career. Before that, he was 3-2 in the Octagon since his Diego Sanchez win.

All in all, he's settled into a comfortable gatekeeper role in the welterweight division. He'll probably never hold the belt, but he can give almost anyone a good match with his superb wrestling and ever improving stand-up.

Frank Trigg hasn't been with the UFC in over four years. His last match in the Octagon was a loss to GSP by (you guessed it) rear naked choke. At 37 years of age, he's riding a four-fight win streak coming back into the UFC.

The main difference between the men is their age. They have similar win percentages with Trigg at 19-6 and Koscheck at 12-4. They have similar fighting styles with strong wrestling backgrounds and have shown that they can put you down with strikes if they catch you.

Personally, I'm pulling for Trigg. I've never really liked Koscheck personally and have never found him all that exciting as a fighter. Also, though Trigg hasn't been in the Octagon in a while, he's been in more high-profile fights than Koscheck (two seperate title shots in his last UFC run) and has more experience overall.

Trigg by UD

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley

As we all know, this match was originally supposed to feature Mick Swick opposite Martin Kampmann. Swick, however, has been injured and English fighter Paul Daley will be taking his place.

Although this fight is not what was originally planned and is no longer for a title shot, I don't think it will be any less exciting.

Paul Daley, while not known to many people, has knockout power. His hands have given him 16 knockout victories in his career, which is just over half of his win total. Nothing to sneeze at, regardless of whether he's fought in the UFC or not. Both of Kampmann's career losses have been by knockout, so Daley's hands might give him some trouble on Saturday night.

Daley's record indicates that submissions are not his forte. He will definitely try to keep the fight standing so that he can tee off on Kampmann's face. Martin is no slouch in the standup, either, but if he feels he's not winning there, he has the option of taking it to the ground to get the win. I don't think Daley has that option.

The thing about this fight is that it doesn't mean very much anymore. Kampmann will likely win, but unless it's in dominating fashion, he probably still won't be the consensus No. 1 contender. And if Daley knocks Kampmann's mouthpiece into the first row, they've got an unknown who just beat one of their best guys.

Things might get a little muddy.

Kampmann by submission

Co-Main Event: Mirko Filipovic vs. Junior dos Santos

Mirko hasn't looked great in the UFC. Getting knocked out by Gonzaga. On the flipside, Dos Santos has had a Shane Carwin-esque run up until this point in his career (besides one submission loss back in 2007).

Mirko has more experience in big shows and I think he realizes this is his last shot at any type of MMA glory. I don't think he'll ever hold a title again. But I love him as a fighter. Soft-spoken, humble and his old PRIDE footage still gives me chills. For sure, my heart is pulling for him.

But my head is saying Dos Santos.

He's on a roll right now and considering how poor Mirko has looked as of late, I think Dos Santos is going to roll through him and put a fallen legend on his resume.

Dos Santos by TKO

Main Event: Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort

I'm not going to spend much time analyzing this one. I think it's pretty simple.

Rich Franklin only has four losses in his career. Dan Henderson, Lyoto Machida and Anderson Silva (twice). Simply put, Rich only loses to the best. He's always in shape, he always come to fight and he has the heart of a champion, regardless of whether he is ever champion again.

This fight all hinges on whether plain, old Vitor Belfort shows up or if The Phenom does. By "plain, old Vitor Belfort", I mean the Vitor that lost to Randy Couture back in the early part of 2004 and couldn't get a meaningful win to save his life.

By The Phenom, I mean the Vitor that has been knocking heads since April of 2007, beating progressively bigger names on progressively biggest stages.

If The Phenom shows up, Rich Franklin might get the Anderson Silva treatment by Belfort and get his lights turned off somewhere in the first or second round. If not, Rich Franklin will outlast yet another opponent.

Personally, even though I'm a big fan of Franklin's, I think The Phenom is going to show up and tear through Franklin. Next stop for Vitor: A middleweight title shot against Anderson Silva or maybe a rematch with Wanderlei at 185.

Belfort by TKO

What's Next For Randy Couture?

William Abel — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 10:18:29 -0400

Ah, Bleacher Report...it feels good to be back. Though some of you may not care, I haven't written an article here in roughly two months because of some things going on with a new work schedule. I've had the time to comment on some articles here and there, but nothing much else.

Hopefully, you'll all enjoy my "comeback" article. :)

My question is simple: What is next for "The Natural"?

I ask this question on the basis that he beats Big Nog this Saturday, since I think that is what will happen. I see Randy pulling out a decision at 102, so it makes me wonder about his future in the sport.

He could stay in the heavyweight division and try and push himself for one last title fight, but I don't think that's best for him.

The only two heavyweight champions we're going to have for the foreseeable future are Shane Carwin and Brock Lensar. It's already been shown that Randy is simply too small to compete with that class of heavyweight.

Personally, I'd like to see him drop back down to light heavyweight. There are a couple of big money fights there for him if he wants them. Specifically, I'm talking about Lyoto Machida and Anderson Silva.

Both of them are puzzles that other fighters have yet to solve. Why not let one of MMA's best game planners have a crack at them? Anderson Silva especially needs some competition for his last few UFC fights.

Couture would be a big money fight that people would love to see and would help cement both fighters' legacies even further. It's a win-win.

Lyoto is more of a longshot since he hasn't cleaned his division out, much less even defended his title. But if Couture is still around in a year or two and Lyoto is still running through opponents, why not? It's another big money fight and something that I know I would pay to see.

Obviously, there are many other options for Couture besides what I've presented here. He could simply retire after 102, win or lose, and concentrate on Hollywood, his clothing and his gym. He could become a commentator for the UFC or Strikeforce.

He could also leave the UFC after his contract is up and try to fight Fedor in Strikeforce or elsewhere, which I think may be his ultimate goal, even if he's almost 50 by the time it happens.

He has plenty of options after 102. His status in the sport and his mainstream appeal affords him more avenues than most other fighters. My only hope is that he keeps fighting as long as possible. He's a true living legend and I love watching him fight.

Hope you enjoyed my article, folks. Not all that insightful, but I felt like writing something. :)

The UFC Hall of Fame: Only Legends Allowed

William Abel — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:00:46 -0400

As we approach UFC 100, I'm thinking not only of the great matches that we're about to witness, but also the impending selection of two more Hall of Fame inductees.

As I was thinking about it, I began wondering what the criteria for being in the Hall of Fame was. As it turns out, I think it's pretty simple.

Someone who is in the Hall of Fame has to have advanced the UFC (and by extension, MMA) in some important way and helped it evolve beyond being seen as just two meatheads pounding each other in the face in the middle of a cage.

In the spirit of inducting two new members, I want to look at the first man that was ever put in: Royce Gracie

What really needs to be said? Without the Gracie family, there wouldn't be a UFC. They got this whole MMA thing rolling in the United States and I am forever thankful to them for that.

Royce advanced the UFC because he showed, right from the beginning, that you didn't need to be 6'5'' and 250 pounds to be a fighter. You could be 175 pounds soaking wet and still beat guys that outweighed you by 60-70 pounds by using pure skill.

Without Royce showing that at the very start of the organization, I severely doubt it would have been able to claim any legitimacy in the martial arts world and would have folded long before Zuffa came along. We have Royce to thank for showing the world that, more often than not, skill would beat brute force in the cage.

Now, obviously, no one can really top Royce as far as early UFC accomplishments go. Not necessarily because of his win-loss record, but because without him, the UFC probably wouldn't exist today. His influence in MMA in incalculable. No one will be able to go back in time and do the things that he did.

As far as I'm concerned, he's in his own little Hall of Fame even compared to the other greats that surround him in that five-man club.

Of course, it will soon be a seven-man club. And I pray to the gods of MMA that people like Mask and Evan Tanner are not put in. Yes, their deaths are tragic. Yes, they died too early and had more productive years ahead of them. But they are not legends. To put them in the same company as Royce, Randy, Mark, Dan and Ken is blasphemy.

So I hope that the correct criteria is used when determining who the next two men will be. As a fan, I'm genuinely excited to see who they are and I sincerely hope that the UFC will not piss in my Cheerios and let me down by putting men in that do not deserve the spot.

Choose wisely, Zuffa...

Is It Time for the Heavyweights to Rule the UFC?

William Abel — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 18:45:35 -0400

Let's just go ahead and lay this out before I begin: Fedor Emelianenko is the No.1 heavyweight fighter in the world. Period.

There can be no discussion. No confusion. No misunderstanding. When he fights, people watch. And he gets paid quite well for it.

But other than him, truly great HW fighters are few and far between compared to other divisions. The talent pool is likely the thinnest in the world, and you need no more proof than to look at the UFC right now.

Undoubtedly, the UFC's biggest HW draw right now is Brock Lesnar.

The man is a behemoth. He has to cut weight to make it to 265, which blows my mind. But he's still green, and there's no guarantee that Frank Mir isn't going to submit him or knock him out come July 11.

Other than Mir and Lesnar, the only two guys I see becoming major stars right now are Carwin and Velasquez, and I believe those two are going to have a No. 1 contender match before the end of the year (which I believe Carwin will win).

Guys like Couture and Nogueira are on their way out, and although they are still great competitors, I don't believe that either of them will hold the belt again before they retire.

So why do I believe that HW are finally going to get a chance to shine?

Because, in the modern era of the UFC (post-Zuffa purchase), they never really have. To me, the last time the belt was really coveted was when Arlovski and Sylvia were trading it back and forth.

But compared to a feud like Ortiz/Liddell or Couture/Liddell, it was pretty lackluster. It failed to capture the emotion and the spark that made other feuds great. It didn't make Sylvia or Arlovski superstars.

But I feel like fortunes are going to change for the HW division very soon, mainly because the UFC is investing in it more now than ever before.

They have Brock, a highly marketable superstar who, if he beats Mir, can spit in the face of critics and truly start to become a respected champion. They have Carwin, who, if he can keep his winning streak alive, will most certainly fight Lesnar one day. Two wrestlers of that size facing each other is a marketing team's dream.

Also, the next season of the Ultimate Fighter is being devoted strictly to HW. Kimbo is involved, which ensures big ratings and millions of viewers. Multiple new stars could be made, even if they don't win the competition.

New blood will be injected into the HW division, and it could be full of contenders once more.

I believe that in the next few years, it will be a good time to be a HW in the UFC. Only time will tell if the big boys can rule the Octagon, though.