Bleacher Report - Articles by Handicappers Picks

NASCAR Picks: Pennsylvania 500 Winning Picks & Odds to Win

Handicappers Picks — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 12:41:29 -0400

Race-day: 8/2/2009 – Race-time: 1:00 pm est.
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Drivers start their engines at 1:00 pm est. time this Sunday for the Pennsylvania 500. Jimmie Johnson got off the side and picked up a victory in last week’s Allstate 400 at The Brickyard after Juan Pablo Montoya made a mistake on pit road and lost a ton of spots. Jimmie has had success at Pocono, where the Pennsylvania 500 will be run, which is one of the reasons he is the favorite to win his second straight NASCAR race. Like always, there will be a lot of talented drivers in his way to that second straight victory.

Let’s take a look at some of the drivers with a chance to win the Pennsylvania 500.

1. Carl Edwards +900: Edwards is still on the side, waiting for his first victory of the year, and would like nothing more than to get it this Sunday. Because he won this race last year, there’s a good chance that he could do it. Edwards is going off at nice NASCAR odds to get his first victory and he has steadily climbed up the Sprint Cup Points Standings. He could be a tough driver to deny on Sunday.

2. Tony Stewart +600: Stewart isn’t the favorite in this race which is odd considering that he just won on this track on June 7th. Tony has been the most consistent driver on the NASCAR circuit this year. Last week, he finished 3rd in the Allstate 400. Gamblers must consider Smoke for a bet on Sunday.

3. Jimmie Johnson +500: Jimmie has two victories at Pocono and is the hot driver after stealing the victory from Juan Pablo Montoya last week at Indianapolis. He’s the chalk in this race on Sunday. I’m not sure if he’s a big bet against because this is around the time of the year when Johnson starts to really heat up.

4. Kasey Kahne +1500: Kahne has been on fire for a while. It continued last week with another top 10 finish, this time crossing the finish line in 7th place. He won over this track last year and figures to put in another good showing because he and his crew are making all of the right moves on the track.

5. Jeff Gordon +800: It was a disappointing Allstate 400 for Gordon who could do no better than 9th place. With four victories at Pocono, Gordon definitely has a shot, but he just doesn’t seem to be driving with the same authority that he was driving with earlier this year. He’s not a bad bet, but he’s not the best on the board either.

6. Mark Martin +600: Martin continued to impress with a second place finish at Indianapolis last week. He should be tough in every race from here on out as he has the full force of the Hendrick Motorsports juggernaut behind him. The big issue this Sunday? Martin has never won at Pocono. Ever.

Best Long Shot

Juan Pablo Montoya +2200: Juan Pablo had it in the bag last week before speeding on pit road and having to start from the middle of the pack after a key caution. He led for almost the entire race at Indianapolis and looked to be an easy winner until he was penalized for speeding. He won’t make the same mistake twice and the odds are really good on him to win this Sunday.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers vs. Reds Under – July 16th 2009

Handicappers Picks — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:14:39 -0400

Scott Rickenbach’s Free Pick Opinion Play for MLB Thursday: UNDER the total in Cincinnati vs Milwaukee @ 7:10 PM ET.

Homer Bailey vs. Braden Loope. Homer Bailey of the Reds has struggled so far in his young career. That’s helping to give us great line value here. This total opened up as the biggest total (9.5) on the board for Thursday. That’s a great value because Bailey is indeed showing signs of having turned the corner this season. Even though he struggled with command in his first two outings, he’s been tough to hit so far this year. Don’t be fooled by his 5.16 ERA this season. Teams are hitting just .195 against Bailey this season.

With his walks now down (just two in his last 13.1 innings) Bailey is transitioning from wild and unpredictable to solid plus very tough to hit. In his last two outings he’s allowed just two walks and 10 hits in 13.1 innings. Bailey will be facing a Brewers team that’s been “all or nothing” so far this month. Milwaukee has been held to two runs or less in five of their 11 games this month.

Look for Milwaukee’s sticks to be held in check once again here and the key to the under in this matchup is that the Reds are also quite likely to have a quiet night at the plate.

Cincinnati has averaged just three runs per game in their last 13 games. Here the Reds will be facing Braden Looper of the Brewers. The right-hander has given up just 23 hits in his last 24.1 innings on the mound. Looper has lasted at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. Note that, in all six of those “workmanlike outings,” Looper never allowed more than seven hits.

He’s 6-3 in his career against the Reds and he’s held them to a .232 batting average. The biggest issue for Looper in recent outings has been the long ball. However, despite playing their home games in a homer-friendly park, the Reds rank 20th in the majors in terms of home runs hit this season. They just don’t have the pop in their lineup to take advantage of Looper’s long ball struggles and, as noted above, Bailey really appears to have turned the corner for the Reds.

Being able to get nine as a “win number” is simply an added bonus here. We’ll take it! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Cincinnati on Thursday night.

Thanks and best of luck always from Scott Rickenbach and don’t miss his RED-HOT MLB Guaranteed Picks including another HUGE TOP PLAY ready for Thursday night action!

– Courtesy of Scott Rickenbach – experts.covers.com

Free MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels – July 16th 2009

Handicappers Picks — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:12:35 -0400

Take the L.A. Angels on the Moneyline. We are getting great value here Thursday night with the Angels who have Ervin Santana (1-5, 7.81 ERA) on the mound where he has owned the Athletics in the past with an ERA of just 1.38 over 13 starts against them.

Santana is throwing 90 to 94 m.p.h. consistently and he is 9-1 lifetime against the Athletics, so I look for him to have a solid outing pitching with several days rest. Jason Giambi is just 1 for 14 (.071) against Santana while Jack Cust is just 2 for 10 (.200) against him, so I look for Santana to have plenty of confidence coming into this game after a few rough outings.

The Athletics' starter Dallas Braden (7-7, 3.12) is 0-2 against the Angels this season with an ERA of 4.50 and the Angels' batters have a big advantage since they have faced Braden twice this season while averaging 8.5 hits per game against him.

The Angels are a red-hot 10-1 in their last 11 games in game one of a series and they are 9-1 in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record. The Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 road games against a lefty starter and they are 8-1 in their last 9 games as an underdog including a perfect 6-0 as an underdog of +110 to +150.

Oakland is just 3-11 in Braden’s last 14 starts as a favorite and they are 0-5 in their last five home games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels get it done on the road tonight without Vladimir Guerrero (knee) and Torii Hunter (strained adductor) just like they did when they swept the Yankees.

ake the L.A. Angels as my MLB Free Play for Thursday night.

– Courtesy of Vernon Croy - 10starpicks.com

Free MLB Pick: Houston Astros – July 16th 2009

Handicappers Picks — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:11:35 -0400

While the Dodgers are in excellent shape in the National League West, the Astros are far from out of anything in the National League Central. They trail the Cardinals by just 3.5 games and they are in better shape there than they are in the Wild Card race where they are five games behind the Giants.

Houston won four of five games prior to the break and it looks to start strong in the second half. The Astros send their most consistent pitcher to the hill as Wandy Rodriguez had an excellent first half. He posted a 2.96 ERA through 18 first half starts with the Astros going 12-6 in those games. His numbers on the road are not as good but he was hurt by only two bad stats in nine road outings.He allowed three runs or fewer in those other seven games.

The Dodgers counter with Randy Wolf, who is arguably the biggest surprise in the National League. He has a 3.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP which are his lowest numbers since 2002. While it would be a great story for him to keep it up throughout the entire season, I just do not see it happening. He has been average at home with a 4.04 ERA and he has yet to pick up a win in nine home outings.

Houston is hitting .291 against left-handed pitching, including .311 over its last 10 games and both of those averages top Los Angeles. The Astros are 4-1 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Houston also falls into a very solid contrarian underdog situation.

Play against National League favorites of less than -150 that have an on-base percentage of .340 or better and starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 2.50 or better over his last three starts going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. This situation is 28-13 (68.3 percent) since 1997 with the average run differential being +1.4 rpg in favor of the underdog. 3* Houston Astros –

Courtesy of Matt Fargo – experts.covers.com

Free MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners – July 16th 2009

Handicappers Picks — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:10:43 -0400

The Mariners have won three of their last four games while the Indians have lost six of their last 10. Seattle is 9-2 in their last 11 road games where the total is set between 7-8.5.

Seattle has won four of Olson’s last five starts overall. In his last four road starts the Mariners are 4-0. The Indians are 7-19 in their last 26 overall. In their last 10 as a home favorite they are 2-8. Cleveland has lost their last six games vs. a left-handed starter. Cleveland has lost Lee’s last five starts.

In his last nine starts vs. a team with a winning record the Indians are 1-8. Play on the Seattle Mariners +. –

Courtesy of Jimmy the Mosse – sportpic.com

Cincinnati Reds-New York Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: July 10, 2009

Handicappers Picks — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:48:26 -0400

Free MLB Picks: Reds vs. Mets Over 8.5 Runs -110 Odds
(David Malinsky MLB Predictions | experts.covers.com)

Struggling starters and tired bullpens are hardly the recipe for a pitcher’s duel, and that is why we were so surprised to find the 9’s left open as “win” numbers for this one. In a game in which there will be a vulnerable pitcher on the mound in every inning except for perhaps the ninth, asking each team to scratch out four runs does not make us beggars.

We are not sure that Bronson Arroyo should be pitching right now. A bout with carpal tunnel syndrome has turned his season into a mess, and the Reds have already stated the offseason surgery is in the cards. So why wait? Although cortisone shots have eased the pain a bit, his game is a disaster right now, with an 0-3/10.29 over his last three starts that has actually been even worse than those baseline numbers.

Arroyo allowed six home runs in only 14 innings in that span, with far more walks (nine) than strikeouts (six), and a stratospheric 2.71 WHIP does not fully translate to the ERA column because there were a couple of unearned tallies that do not show up. There just is not any reason to believe that he turns around here, and with the Cincinnati starters only lasting 22 innings over the last five games, a tired bullpen may reach overload. This will also be the second look for the Mets at him this season, and Arroyo has worked to an awful 8.85 over four second-look outings so far.

Fernando Nieve’s 3-2/2.73 helps to bring a low price here, but that is not who he is. Like many call-ups he had an adrenaline rush through a few starts, which led to a couple of solid performances, but now that has worn off and opposing teams also have scouting reports. As such, he has lasted only nine innings over his last two starts, allowing six runs on 17 hits with an ugly ratio of seven walks vs. only four strikeouts, and you can see part of where this bargain line comes from in that distribution.

If you allow 17 hits and seven walks over nine frames, but only six runs scored, you have cashed a lottery ticket. Nieve is not a candidate to go deeply into a game even when his limited stuff is on, and that is bad news for the Met bullpen after the starters could only generate 12 of the 27 innings in the series vs. the Dodgers.

We do not need an offensive explosion to win this; if each team can get four runners around, it is mission accomplished. There will be ample opportunities for that to happen in this one. Get more baseball picks from this expert at handicappers picks

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds, Picks & Predictions: July 9 2009

Handicappers Picks — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 11:23:12 -0400

Free MLB Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers -143 Odds
(Al McMordie MLB Predictions | bigal.com)

At 7:10pm our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Mets. Tough-luck starter of the first half of the season? It could very well go to the Dodgers veteran lefthander Randy Wolf, who despite having 11 quality starts so far, only has three wins to show for them. And it’s not like the Dodgers haven’t been winning games when he pitches as Los Angeles has won 11 of Wolf’s 18 starts.

Oddly, it’s Mets' veteran righthanded starter Livan Hernandez who has the winning record (5-4) in tonight’s match-up although the 14-year MLB veteran is having his own tough-luck run lately having lost his last three starts. Everything else besides the winning record would seem to favor Wolf and the Dodgers in this game, including the fact that Wolf has absolutely owned the Mets throughout his career, thanks to his many seasons (eight to be exact) with the Philadelphia Phillies. In fact, Wolf owns an 11-5 lifetime mark against New York, including a 6-1 record against them on the road, and he went 2-0 against them last season. While the Mets' offense continues to struggle with the losses of Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado, the Dodgers have gotten a boost to their lineup from the return of outfielder Manny Ramirez.

Take the Dodgers.

As always, good luck…Al McMordie. Get more baseball picks from this expert at handicappers picks

Florida Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Odds, Picks & Predictions: July 6 2009

Handicappers Picks — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:06:57 -0400

Free MLB Picks: Florida Marlins +150 Odds
(Al McMordie MLB Predictions | bigal.com)

At 10:15 PM, our selection is on the Florida Marlins over San Francisco. Although this looks like a big mismatch on the mound, in favor of the Giants, I think the price is an overlay, given the Giants’ weak offense. We can’t pass up the Marlins at this price, even with Sean West on the hill.

San Francisco is scoring just 4.2 runs per game, compared to Florida’s offense which produces 4.6 runs per game.

Sean West has a respectable 4.06 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, including 3.55 ERA on the road (with a 1.02 WHIP). Matt Cain does have better numbers than West, but the Giants have lost his last two starts. Finally, West shut out San Francisco back on June 8, when he hurled eight shutout innings and gave up just two hits, en route to a 4-0 Florida victory.

Take the Marlins. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

Get more baseball picks from this expert at handicappers picks

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Odds, Picks and Predictions: July 6, 2009

Handicappers Picks — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:02:25 -0400

Free MLB Picks: Detroit Tigers -129 Odds
(Cajun Sports MLB Predictions | 10starpicks.com)

Comerica Park will be the site of a three-game set between the Detroit Tigers and the visiting Kansas City Royals.

Game one is set for Monday night with the first pitch at 7:05PM Eastern Time. Detroit will send right-hander Armando Galarraga to the bump with his 5-7 W/L record and ERA of 5.34 on the season. Galarraga is only 3-3 at home with an ERA of 5.44, but over his last three outings has received much better results going 2-0 W/L with an ERA of 4.41. The Tigers have won all three of those games.

He will be opposed by Royals right-hander Gil Meche who is 5-12 W/L with an ERA of 4.20 this season. Meche is 3-5 W/L on the highway with an ERA of 2.70 but has struggled over his last three trips to the hill going 0-3 W/L with an ERA of 9.42.

The Royals have found the road tough this season posting a record of 13-22 W/L (-6.7) while their opponent has been solid at home with a record of 23-11 W/L picking up +9.2 units for their backers.

Detroit is 8-0 W/L their last eight at home including 6-0 W/L when installed as a home favorite. When Galarraga takes the hill in the role of a favorite, the Tigers are 15-6 W/L and 5-1 W/L when he's favored -110 to -150.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Detroit win by 2.2 runs and our math model also favors the host and has them winning by almost three runs. So lay the chalk as the Tigers roll past an over-matched Royals team on Monday night at Comerica Park in Detroit. Get more baseball picks from this expert at handicappers picks.

Orioles Vs. Angels: Odds, Picks and Predictions: July 2, 2009

Handicappers Picks — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 21:57:10 -0400

Free MLB Picks: Orioles vs. Angels Under 9.5 Runs -110 odds
(Larry Ness MLB Predictions | covers.com)

The Orioles head west tonight after back-to-back remarkable games against the Red Sox. Baltimore trailed 10-1 in the bottom of the seventh vs the Red Sox on Tuesday, only to come back and win, 11-10.

Yesterday afternoon, the Red Sox turned the tables on the Orioles, scoring four runs in the top of the ninth to tie the game at five-all, then winning it 6-5 in 11 innings.

The Angels spent the first three days of the week in Arlington but after winning 5-2 on Monday to extend their lead to 2.5 games in the AL West, the Angels lost 9-5 on Tuesday and 9-7 Wednesday, and will return home not only disappointed but also just a half-game up on the Rangers in the division.

The Orioles and Angels open a four-game series in Anaheim tonight, the first time these teams have met in 2009. The pitching matchup is Guthrie vs. Lackey and while both pitchers have been somewhat disappointing this year, both have been pitching better lately.

Lackey owns a 2.86 ERA over his last three starts (24 Ks in 22 innings), while Guthrie has a respectable 3.70 ERA over his last four outings, allowing three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts. Lackey is 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA in 10 career starts vs Baltimore and will face an Orioles team which is 11-23 on the road in ‘09, averaging only 3.88 RPG. Guthrie’s made two career starts here in Anaheim, posting a 1-0 mark with a 1.80 ERA. Take the under. – Larry Ness’ free baseball picks are featured on handicappers picks