Bleacher Report - Articles by Andrew Shaffer

The 2008 Chicago Cubs: From Swagger to Stagger

Andrew Shaffer — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 03:21:45 -0500

Choking is the psychological and/or physical reaction to heightened expectations, even when those expectations are warranted due to, say, a 97-win regular season. Choking stifles even the best hitters, and can be partial or complete, with partial choking allowing some, although inadequate, gasps of offense. Prolonged or complete choking results in a failure to advance in the postseason. Choking can be caused by: * The unexpected re-introduction of a slumping player into the everyday lineup. Said player struck out 3 times and left 4 men on base on Thursday. See "Kosuke Fukudome". * Uncharacteristic starting pitching performances by two 14+ game winners in two must-win games. See "Ryan Dempster" and "Carlos Zambrano." * An NLDS record-tying 4 fielding errors on one's home field. See "Mark DeRosa," "Derrek Lee," "Ryan Theriot," and "Aramis Ramirez." * A leadoff hitter batting .111 this postseason. See "Alfonso Soriano." * An "untouchable" 1-2 closing combo giving up 3 runs in their first postseason appearance together. See "Carlos Marmol" and "Kerry Wood." * A superior opponent with a seasoned postseason manager and roster. See "L.A. Dodgers", "Joe Torre," "Derek Lowe," and "Manny Ramirez." Choking, if caught early enough, can usually be treated by shuffling the lineup or a momentum-changing play.

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Michigan State Narrowly Beats Iowa in Low-Scoring Affair

Andrew Shaffer — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 08:14:03 -0400

The "battle of the running backs" turned out to be a defensive battle, as Michigan State (5-1, 2-0 in the Big Ten) topped Iowa (3-3, 0-2 in the Big Ten) in East Lansing on Saturday, 16-13.

Iowa limited the No. 2 running back in the country, Javon Ringer, to just 91 yards rushing—30 of which came on one breakout run in the fourth quarter. The No. 2 running back in the Big Ten, Iowa's Shonn Greene, topped 100 yards but never made it into the end zone.

Turnovers once again plagued the Iowa Hawkeyes, who coughed up two fumbles. Ricky Stanzi, starting his third career game at quarterback, threw one interception and no touchdowns. Part of the reason for his lack of offense was a hard-nosed Michigan State defense that sacked him three times. Two fumbles in the red zone (one by Stanzi) led to seven Michigan State points.

Shonn Greene rushed for 158 yards, his seventh career 100-yard rushing game. The Iowa sophomore showed no signs of lingering damage from the hit that knocked him out of the Northwestern game last weekend.

Keep your eyes on this kid—he's a bulldozer who will be getting a lot of attention the rest of this year. Greene ran through the first tackler a ridiculous 23 of 27 times in the nationally-televised contest.

Hawkeye fans are going to be blowing up the message boards regarding Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. They had two chances to kick a field goal to put themselves into position to tie the game, and came up empty both times.

On a fourth-and-two early in the fourth quarter, Ferentz elected to go with a passing play instead of hand the ball to Greene. Stanzi's pass was incomplete, and Iowa turned the ball over to Michigan State deep into Spartan territory.

Iowa scored 10 unanswered points in the second half but couldn't finish their final drive for the win. With a chance to send the game into overtime, on a fourth-and-one and with 2:28 to go in the game, Ferentz decided to play for the win and go for a first down. Shonn Greene got the ball this time, and was resoundingly stopped for a two-yard loss by the Michigan State defense.

The No. 2 running back in the country, Javon Ringer, was shut down by the Hawkeyes. Ringer looked relatively human as he ran 25 times for 91 total yards and no touchdowns. He showed some gusto in the fourth quarter against a tired Iowa defense, but failed to break the game open against the Hawkeye defense.

Michigan State's Brian Hoyer went 13-for-24 with 184 passing yards with one touchdown and a fourth quarter interception. It wasn't a memorable performance, but it was enough to win the ballgame.

Iowa-Michigan State Big Ten Matchup to Feature Battle of Running Backs

Andrew Shaffer — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 03:56:06 -0400

The Iowa Hawkeyes (3-2, 0-1 in the Big Ten) roll into East Lansing this Saturday for an 11 a.m. CT matinee against the Michigan State Spartans (4-1, 1-0 in the Big Ten). This will be the Hawks’ biggest challenge yet, as the high-powered Spartans offense has averaged 31 points per game this season. Iowa’s stingy defense, anchored by Matt Kroul and Mitch King, has given up only 45 points over the first five games.

The key matchup will be Spartans’ running back Javon Ringer against Iowa’s defensive line. Ringer, who rushed for almost 200 yards in his last game, leads the country in rushing with 897 yards. He also leads the country with 12 touchdowns.

The Hawkeyes will counter with their own powerful running back. Shonn Greene is second in the conference in running yards behind Ringer. Greene left last Saturday’s game three minutes into the fourth quarter with a head injury, and the Hawks turned to a one-dimensional passing game in his absence. Greene is listed as the starter for Saturday’s contest.

If either running back goes down, expect both defenses to manhandle the other team’s passing game.

Iowa’s quarterback controversy was resolved last week, as coach Kirk Ferentz sent Ricky Stanzi into the huddle for all four quarters. Stanzi completed 21-of-30 passes for 238 yards and one touchdown.

In the final drive of the game, the sophomore quarterback failed to complete a pass in four tries from 1st-and-goal. Still, expect Ferentz to stick with Stanzi for the rest of the season unless an injury forces his hand.

The big question for the Hawkeyes surrounds turnovers. Four fumbles and one interception led to 14 Wildcats points in their contest against Northwestern last week. It was an uncharacteristic performance from a team that hadn’t lost the ball five times in one game since Nov. 18, 2006.

"To me, it boils down to concentration. So, we just have to do a better job. Concentrate and do a better job," Ferentz told the press this week.

It’s going to take more than concentration to beat the Spartans. With a top-notch running back, a confident quarterback not in danger of being replaced at a moment’s notice, and a hard-hitting defensive line, Iowa should be more than able to improve upon its 3-2 record.

The Definition of "Choking" (See Also "Chicago Cubs")

Andrew Shaffer — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 02:42:22 -0400

Choking is the psychological and/or physical reaction to heightened expectations, even when those expectations are warranted due to, say, a 97-win regular season. Choking stifles even the best hitters and can be partial or complete, with partial choking allowing some, although inadequate, gasps of offense. Prolonged or complete choking results in a failure to advance in the postseason.

Choking can be caused by:

The unexpected re-introduction of a slumping player into the everyday lineup. Said player struck out three times and left four men on base on Thursday. See "Kosuke Fukudome".
Uncharacteristic starting pitching performances by two 14+ game winners in two must-win games. See "Ryan Dempster" and "Carlos Zambrano."
An NLDS record-tying four fielding errors on one's home field. See "Mark DeRosa," "Derrek Lee," "Ryan Theriot," and "Aramis Ramirez."
A leadoff hitter batting .111 this postseason. See "Alfonso Soriano."
An "untouchable" 1-2 closing combo giving up three runs in their first postseason appearance together. See "Carlos Marmol" and "Kerry Wood."
A superior opponent with a seasoned postseason manager and roster. See "L.A. Dodgers", "Joe Torre," "Derek Lowe," and "Manny Ramirez."

Choking, if caught early enough, can usually be treated by shuffling the lineup or a momentum-changing play.

Why Cubs Were Booed out of Ballpark on Wednesday

Andrew Shaffer — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 23:30:22 -0400

The "boo birds" made an early appearance at Wrigley Field on Wednesday when Alfonso Soriano struck out to begin the bottom of the first inning. The booing continued throughout the evening. Here's why:

Cubs fans are passionate, much like Carlos Zambrano. When things don't go well, they tend to get fired up—especially when they spent an average of $300 per ticket.
Ryan Dempster hadn't walked seven batters in one game since 1999. Why now? Speaking of walks, the Cubs walked the opposing pitcher, Derek Lowe, twice. That's two times. Count 'em.
The 2008 Cubs were invincible at home, winning almost two-thirds of their games at Wrigley Field. The fans simply aren't accustomed to losing...at least not this year.
This is the Cubs' seventh straight postseason loss.
Alfonso Soriano went 0-for-5, swinging at pitches so far out of the strike zone that it was almost comical.
The rest of the lineup didn't fare much better. The Cubs were 2-for-15 with runners on base.
National League teams that have lost the first game of the NLDS since 1995 have gone on to win the series only three times—out of 26 series.

But all is not lost, Cubs fans. Here are some reasons not to boo:

Mark DeRosa's injured calf didn't affect his power swing. If the Cubs come back in the next four games, expect his performance to boost talk of a team MVP. His calf is no stitched ankle (see Curt Schilling, 2004 NLCS), but DeRo is a hard worker.
Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood are still fresh for Game Two. Nobody was expecting miracles from the middle relief, and the three runs in four-plus innings on Wednesday weren't as ugly as things could have been. There's no shame in giving up a home run to Man-Ram on a ridiculously good pitch.
The defense, anchored by an amazing catch by Kosuke Fukudome, was solid.
The Dodgers are hot right now. They surged to make the playoffs, and they're still locked in. It isn't like the Cubs lost to the Reds or the Pirates.
It's just one game. The Cubs will put it behind them and strike back at the Dodgers on Thursday. And if they don't come out swinging? Then there's always next year...
...and I can say that because this team is built to last. This is their second straight division title. Most of the team, including Sweet Lou, will be back next year. As long as Jim Hendry is GM, don't expect the team to lack talent year after year.

Andrew's Chicago Cubs Blog Archive

ESPN Says Cubs Will Win World Series

Andrew Shaffer — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 08:30:43 -0400

ESPN's Jayson Stark has posted the official ESPN prediction for the World Series: the Cubs over the Red Sox.

"I could guarantee you right now," said Boston's Sean Casey on a Cubs-Sox Series, "that we'd set a record for (TV) ratings. It'll be nuts, man. Just nuts."

Stark believes that the Red Sox and Cubs have similar lineups and deep rotations, but that the series will be won by the bullpens.

"(Carlos) Marmol and (Kerry) Wood combined for 198 strikeouts in 153-and-two-thirds innings—making them the only bullpen duo in baseball that averaged over 11 Ks per nine innings apiece. Jonathan Papelbon-Justin Masterson isn't bad," Stark wrote. "But it isn't that dominating."

It's nothing less than what Ryan Dempster promised in spring training. However, coming from ESPN, many fans are thinking, "Don't curse us."

Forget about it.

"Our friends from Chicago are already pleading with us not to write this column. Sorry," Stark apologized.

I think he underestimates the 2008 Cubs. There is no curse. There is no goat. One hundred long years is just a number.

If the Cubs blow it, it won't be because of a black cat or a Bartman—it will be due to the fact that they are not a championship team. It means that the pitchers are tired. Or maybe the bats are slumping.

The loss cannot be blamed on a sports network's prediction.

Carlos Zambrano Will Start Game Two of the NLDS Against the Dodgers

Andrew Shaffer — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 04:26:21 -0400

The last time that Big Z faced the Dodgers, he saw his seven-game winning streak come to a close with a (then) season-high seven runs allowed. In a fit of rage, Zambrano savagely attacked a Gatorade water cooler, making highlight reels across the country.

Since then, Zambrano has pitched a no-hitter against the Brewers and regained his composure on and off the mound. Even after giving up eight runs two outings ago, Big Z was relatively calm when leaving the field. (No watercoolers were harmed.)

So which Zambrano will the Dodgers be facing on Thursday at Wrigley Field? My money is on the Carlos Zambrano that pitched against the Dodgers on May 28, giving up just one run over eight stellar innings.

Despite his past two outings, he has never failed to turn it around when slumping. The added pressure of the postseason and the demotion to No. 2 starter will be the fire in Zambrano's belly.

Big Z also has another motivation to turn it on: He needs to prove that he can get it done in the postseason: In four starts, he is 0-1 with a 4.37 ERA. Last year, he went six strong innings against the Diamondbacks, giving up only one run. It wasn't enough for the win, and Marmol gave up the game-winning run in the seventh inning.

Marmol is a different pitcher this year, but don't expect Zambrano to hand the ball over to Lou so easily in the late innings this postseason. Big Z is a workhorse, and he'll be looking to go nine innings against the Dodgers.

We will not see a repeat of the watercooler incident. L.A. is 13th in the NL in runs scored this season. The question will not end up being whether or not Zambrano is turned on—the question is going to be, "How will the Cubs' NL-best offense fare against the Dodgers' NL-best pitching?"

10 Reasons Why This Is the Year for the Cubbies

Andrew Shaffer — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 06:35:17 -0400

It's official: The Chicago Cubs are once again in the playoffs, for the second time in two years. The question on Cubs' fans' minds is: "Why do the Cubs play with our emotions? Why go up to the brink again only to lose it all?"

With two disappointing playoff berths this decade already, Cubs fans have earned the right to be skeptical. But here are 10 reasons that this year will be different from 2003 and 2007.

1. Starting pitching.

The four-man rotation of Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, and Lilly is vastly improved from the 2007 rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, and Marquis. Ryan Dempster is having a career year in his return to starting, and new addition Rich Harden has been ridiculously effective in the National League.

The 2008 incarnations of Zambrano and Lilly are crazy good. If there's any weakness, it's Zambrano's recent flirtations with injury and hot/cold streaks (eight runs in two innings following a no-hitter?). Marquis will, once again, be the odd-man out. Even if Lou keeps him on the roster as the long man in the bullpen, don't expect him to return to the Cubs in 2009.

2. Outfield defense.

The additions of Fukudome, Johnson, and Edmonds have given the Cubs their best outfield defense in recent memory. Gone are the weakspots of Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou (2003) and Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd (2007). Soriano, the one weak spot, has made some rifle throws to the plate for assists this year even.

3. Geovany Soto.

It's impossible to underestimate the impact of Soto's offense and pitch-calling in 2008, but let's just say the days of Paul Bako (2003) and Jason Kendall (2007) are ancient history. A good-hitting catcher is like getting an extra position player on a team in the lineup.

4. This is the year.

There's nothing superstitious or magical about the 100-year drought, but the comparison to the championship teams of 1907-'08 are uncanny. The last time the Cubs won back-to-back division titles—and here we are again.

The Cubs have been drawing comparisons to historic Cubs' teams all year: Most wins by a certain point in the season, best record in baseball latest in the season...The list goes on. The players are also having historic years for individual players, from Z's no-hitter to Geovany Soto being the first rookie starting catcher for the NL in the All-Star Game.

5. Ryan Dempster.

He promised Cubs fans in Spring Training that the Cubs would make it to the World Series. He wouldn't lie to us, would he? "I think we are going to win the World Series. I really do," Dempster said. "Enough of all the...You know, the curse this, the curse that, the goat this, the black cat, the 100 years, whatever it is. We're a better team than we were last year, I truly believe. And last year we made it to the playoffs."

6. No Florida or Arizona.

With no Marlins in the playoffs, and possibly no Diamondbacks, there are fewer memories to re-live...even though...

7. ...the past is the past.

In April 2008, Moisés Alou was quoted as saying, "Everywhere I play, even now, people still yell, 'Bartman! Bartman!' I feel really bad for the kid....You know what the funny thing is? I wouldn't have caught it, anyway." Forget the goats and the black cats and the rest of the hocus pocus. "Not one person here believes in any of that (stuff) about a curse or a hex or garbage like that," GM Jim Hendry said on September 20th.

8. There's no room on the rooftop sign for a third digit.

The sign on the rooftop building on Sheffield Avenue currently reads "AC 006299." That stands for Anno Catuli (Year of the Cubs in Latin) and the number of years since they have won a division, an N.L. pennant, and a World Series. There's no room for triple digits, folks.

9. Brad Lidge of the Phillies.

With the Astros, Lidge was prone to blow it in the big situations in the playoffs, even after pitching lights-out throughout the regular season. This year will be no different, should the Cubs match up with the Phillies in the playoffs.

10. Nobody will be able to touch Carlos Marmol in the World Series.

Late relief is where WS games are won and lost, and Marmol will likely be facing A.L. opponents for the first time. The advantage will go to the pitcher in a first-time matchup, and the A.L. team won't get enough at-bats against Marmol over a seven-game series to touch him up.

Wood's been around longer and doesn't have the electric stuff that Marmol has, but expect him to throw the final pitch of the World Series.

Andrew's blog archive

From "Dumpster" to Dempster: A Look at The Cubs' Game One Starter

Andrew Shaffer — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 06:29:56 -0400

It wasn't so long ago that Cubs fans were calling their postseason game one starter Ryan "Dumpster."

As Chicago's closer for three years, "Dumpster" racked up 19 losses and 14 blown saves with an ERA over 4.00. He finished the 2005 campaign with the best saves percentage in baseball, but never had lights-out closer material. Many of the 85 saves over his three seasons closing were at the expense of Cubs fans' blood pressure.

Dempster always looked a little out of sorts when he took the mound, like someone had just woken him up from the bench and shoved a Red Bull in his hand. He was good, but the ERA ballooned in 2006 and 2007, along with his blown saves. It's not surprising that the nickname given to him by a Vineline cover story, "the Fireman," never caught on with fans.

But that was then, and this is now. Since his conversion to a starter, Dempster began the 2008 season 10-0 at home, a first in Cubs' history. He didn't stop there—he's looking at career bests in wins and ERA. (He's in the top five in the National League in ERA currently.) You can look up all the facts and figures that you want about the man, but nothing tells you how his season is going than Dempster's calm, collected demeanor on the mound every start.

Ryan Dempster promised Cubs fans a World Series Championship in preseason, and, like most predictions from players, his comments were taken with a grain of salt. The Cubs' funnyman insisted he wasn't kidding around.

No one's laughing now when ESPN and Sports Illustrated talk about the Cubs being the best team in the National League, or about the fact that Dempster has a genuine shot at his first Cy Young Award.

Sweet Lou has tapped Dempster to start game one of the Divisional Series against either the Mets, Dodgers, or Phillies. It's a move that would have been laughed at in the preseason. With Zambrano on the ropes for the past two games, however, Lou is riding the hot hand straight into the postseason.

Chicago's postseason hopes rest on Dempster's shoulders. Cubs' fans don't have anything to worry about: The former "Dumpster" is used to high pressure situations, and, unlike his short-lived career as a closer, he shows no signs of flaming out now.

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What We Know: A Chicago Cubs Postseason Roster Primer

Andrew Shaffer — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 09:51:59 -0400

What We (Sort of) Know

Ryan Dempster: Divisional Series Game One starter.
Carlos Zambrano—Rich Harden—Ted Lilly: The Cubs' two, three, and four pitchers.
Sean Marshall: Bullpen longman (lefty).
Chad Gaudin: Not Ready for prime-time; won't make the cut...Still struggling with a nagging back injury.
Koyie Hill: Odd man out.

The Question Marks

Bob Howry: Shouldn't make the cut unless the Cubs need someone to throw batting practice. Forget his performance against the Mets.
Daryle Ward: Shouldn't make the cut; expect a speedier outfield replacement to take his spot on the bench.
Jason Marquis: Bullpen longman (righty)...His fingers are crossed. He almost didn't make the rotation to begin the year, and he won't make it in the postseason...How effective will he be in relief?

All the Rest

The bullpen is still in flux, as Lou Piniella will "ride the hot hands" straight into the postseason. The infield starting positions are set, so no surprises there, but one of the call-ups could make the roster in Ward or Ronny Cedeno's place.

Andrew