Bleacher Report - Articles by Nathan Waddell

Need a Wide Receiver? Here Are The Top 30.

Nathan Waddell — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 20:14:57 -0400

Johnson & Johnson top the rankings for fantasy football wide receivers going into the 2009 season. Of all the offensive positions one can project, future production by a wide receiver is far and away the most difficult to get a handle on.

So many facets of the offense must work together to create the opportunity for the receiver to catch the ball. Then, he must catch it. With that said, let's take a look at who we think will be the Top 30 Wide Receivers in 2009. Beside each player is that player's projected totals for the 2009 season.

This article is also featured at FantasyFootballNinja.com

1. Andre Johnson (HOU) 1575 PYD / 12 TDs

Johnson finished up the 2008 season with the most receiving yards of any receiver, but four touchdowns short of the league leaders. The core of the offense remains in place in Houston, so expect and Johnson to put up a couple more touchdowns than last year.

Quarterback Matt Schaub has another season under his belt, so if he and Johnson can stay healthy, the Texans offense should make great strides this season.

2. Calvin Johnson (DET) 1450 PYD / 12 TDs

Calvin Jonson is the most talented receiver in the NFL. Period.

Johnson fought through three quarterbacks last season—none of which was overly talented—and still finished second overall in non-ppr leagues.

With the departures of John Kitna and Dan Orlovsky, expect Johnson to be able to develop some rapport with Daunte Culpepper in the offseason, which should translate into a higher conversion rate on his nine-plus targets per game.

Regardless of which quarterback is throwing him the ball, Johnson will catch it and to see that is a thing of beauty.

3. Randy Moss (NE) 1203 RYD / 12 TDs

Randy Moss makes what should be his last appearance in preseason top five rankings. The reappearance of Tom Brady this season should increase Moss’ yardage totals, but his touchdowns should remain the same.

One should expect to see some changes to the New England offense under the sole direction of Bill Belichick, but any drastic departure from the scheme that won 18 games would be a surprise.

4. Greg Jennings (GB) 1350 RYD / 10 TDs

Last season, Jennings spent the year getting to know Aaron Rodgers. This year, he’ll spend the year proving that he’s an elite receiver.

Jennings has the talent, explosiveness, and vision to dominate defenses and shift coverage. With the emergence of Rodgers as a top five fantasy quarterback, expect Jennings to live up the hype of his late second round ADP.

5. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) 1305 RYD / 10 TDs

Last year’s best fantasy wide receiver will likely experience some let down in 2009.

The stars aligned last season allowing a Warner-to-Fitzgerald hook-up nearly every game. The possibility of a Super Bowl hangover is very real, and should be taken in to account before drafting Fitzgerald in the first round, as seems to be the trend.

Another issue to keep your eye on, if you’re eyeing Fitzgerald in the first or early second rounds, is the status of Anquan Boldin. Should Boldin be shipped out of the desert, it’s not known the impact such a move would have on Fitzgerald.

While Fitzgerald is a very talented receiver, he benefits greatly from the presence of Boldin on the opposite side, which prevents defenses from tilting coverage toward Fitzgerald.

6. Anquan Boldin (ARI) 1230 RYD / 9 TDs

Should I stay or should I go? It seems that Boldin wants to stay with the Cardinals, but just wants to get paid like the elite receiver that he isn’t.

Boldin might be the toughest receiver in the league, but elite he is not. He is Kurt Warner’s favorite target inside the twenty yard line, and there’s no reason that should change this year. That is, unless Ken Wisenhunt decides to drastically alter the offensive scheme after the departure of offensive coordinator Todd Haley to Kansas City.

Wisenhunt learned in Pittsburgh that running the ball is the key to victory, and that was demonstrated with the selection of Chris Wells (RB, Ohio State) in the first round of the 2009 NFL draft.

Expect the Cardinals to slowly transition in to a run-first team, but the upcoming season should be dominated by touchdown passes from Warner to Boldin and Fitzgerald.

7. Marques Colston (NO) 1103 RYD / 10 TDs

Colston enters 2009 after battling a hand injury for a majority of the 2008 season. His recovery was anything but quick, but he did perform well during the last few weeks of the season.

For 2009, look for a repeat of the 2007 season when Colston burst on the scene.

The key offensive pieces are still in place in New Orleans, and with the addition of a solid running game via Pierre Thomas, Drew Brees should have more opportunities to move the ball through the air. While Brees is happy to distribute the ball to any receiver that is open, he clearly favored Colston even while he was not 100 percent.

8. Reggie Wayne (IND) 1350 RYD / 8 TDs

Reggie Wayne’s struggles last season can be attributed primarily to Peyton Manning’s struggles to regain control of the passing game after knee surgery. Then there was the issue with Joseph Addai.

Now that Manning is nearly two years removed from the knee surgery, he should return to his old self, with Wayne being the primary beneficiary. Look for Joseph Addai to reassert himself, or for Donald Brown to step up in the running game, forcing defenses to respect the run once again and allowing Manning to be the Manning of old.

9. Steve Smith (CAR) 1375 RYD / 7 TDs

After serving a brief suspension at the beginning of last season, Smith stepped up as one of the top fantasy wide receivers.

With the emergence of DeAngelo Williams and the continued development of Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers are a run first team. If the backfield can continue to produce like last season, the opportunities should continue to be available to Smith to catch balls and score touchdowns.

10. Roddy White (ATL) 1382 RYD / 7 TDs

A true surprise last season, White emerged as a legitimate top 10 fantasy wide receiver.

The arrival of quarterback Matt Ryan spurred White’s development. White is as talented of a receiver as you’ll find, and with the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez, White will truly have the opportunity to shine.

The Falcons will continue to run the football, but now that defenses must account for Gonzalez, White will continue to put up top ten fantasy numbers.

11. Dwayne Bowe (KC) 1100 RYD / 8 TDs

New quarterback, same offensive line. It is assumed that Cassel will throw out of the shotgun which should give him enough time to complete passes.

That is, if Bowe can catch them. If Bowe can overcome his case of the dropsies, he should have a fine year considering he is the only receiving threat in Kansas City.

12. Braylon Edwards (CLE) 1030 RYD / 8 TDs

Hello, Mr. Stonehands. Hopefully Edwards spent the offseason with a football in his hands so that he remembers how great it feels.

Things should work out well with Brady Quinn at quarterback, as Edwards excels in the intermediate passing game—Quinn’s bread and butter.

13. Roy Williams (DAL) 1020 RYD / 8 TDs

The departure of Terrell Owens creates a void at wide receiver which should be filled by the man who cost 10,000 draft picks.

Williams has the talent, there’s no question. But can he be “the man?” That remains to be seen.

14. Terrell Owens (BUF) 1000 RYD / 8 TDs

Welcome to Buffalo. It’s cold there, so be ready.

With Owens patrolling the intermediate field and Lee Evans as a deep threat, defenses should have to present a balanced coverage scheme allowing Owens to excel.

But don’t expect the world. Trent Edwards is still Owens’ quarterback. But he is his quarterback.

15. Brandon Marshall (DEN) 1100 RYD / 7 TDs

Look for a bit of a down season from Marshall. The addition of Kyle Orton is not necessarily bad news, but Marshall’s upside is not near what it was a year ago.

During the second half of last year, Marshall’s production dropped off to a level of what should be expected going forward.

16. TJ Houshmandzadeh (SEA) 1101 RYD / 7 TDs

Here's another receiver on the move. TJH is now the man in Seattle.

Hasselbeck should have recovered from his back injury, and will be able to get TJH the ball. He will catch a lot of balls, but will not find the end zone all that often. PPR gold, as they say.

17. Wes Welker (NE) 1165 RYD / 6 TDs

More PPR gold. Welker was targeted over nine times per game last season, and caught nearly 75 perecent of the balls thrown his way.

Those are extraordinary numbers. Brady and Welker work well together. A solid WR2 to round out your squad.

18. Anthony Gonzalez (IND) 1050 RYD / 7 TDs

Entering his third year in the league, Gonzalez will be expected to take on an increased role in the offense.

Gonzalez will step up and perform this year without having to look over his shoulder. He’s a receiver in Peyton Manning’s offense. What more could you want?

19. Eddie Royal (DEN) 1025 RYD / 6 TDs

Royal enters 2009 coming off of a fantastic rookie season posting 980 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Royal put the world on notice in Week 1 last season torching the Raiders for 146 yards and a touchdown.

Expect good numbers from Royal again this year as he enrolls in his first year of the Josh McDaniels School of Fantasy Production. Imagine Wes Welker in orange. There you go. Eddie Royal.

Keep in mind that these projections are for standard scoring leagues. Should you be in a points per reception league, knock Royal up a few spots on your draft board.

20. Laveranues Coles (CIN) 900 RYD / 8 TDs

Another wide receiver in a new town. Coles should fit well with Carson Palmer and Chad Ocho Cinco.

Coles is a complementary receiver that will work well in the scheme. He’s currently going in the mid-to-late rounds in mock drafts, so grab him as your WR3 or WR4 and you may be pleasantly surprised.

21. Bernard Berrian (MIN) 964 RYD / 7 TDs

A very solid receiver that’s going to have to adjust to a new quarterback. We just don’t yet know which quarterback it will be.

If Brett Favre drops by for a season, you should expect his projected numbers to increase. But he is by far the top wide receiver on the Vikings’ squad.

22. Hines Ward (PIT) 982 RYD / 7 TDs

Ward finished last season as the 16^th best wide receiver in non-ppr leagues.

While the Steelers found a running game with Mewelde Moore, expect a healthy Willie Parker to provide more receiving opportunities for Ward. And don’t let anyone fool you. Ward is still the number one wide receiver in Pittsburgh

23. Santana Moss (WAS) 1044 RYD / 6 TDs

He’s still the man in Washington, but the rest of the offense isn’t anything to write home about.

The offensive line is weak, the running game is about to fall off of a cliff, and Jason Campbell is in the wrong system. I wouldn’t bank on Moss to bring home the bacon, but he could be a nice player to round out your squad.

24. Vincent Jackson (SD) 998 RYD / 6 TDs

With Jackson, we’re looking at a possible slight drop in productivity with the expected return of Tomlinson to full strength.

The passing game just will not be relied as much as it was in 2008.

25. Kevin Walter (HOU) 899 RYD / 7 TDs

Walter will continue to be an important member of the passing attack in Houston. He’s the do-everything wide receiver that is the perfect complement to Andre Johnson.

As long as Schaub continues to look his way, Walter will continue to be a solid WR3 on your fantasy squad.

26. Devin Hester (CHI) 902 RYD / 6 TDs

Jay Cutler has to throw to someone, right?

Outside of tight end Greg Olsen, Hester is the best receiver in Chicago. Cutler can only be good for Hester’s development as a wide receiver, so expect solid production.

27. Lee Evans (BUF) 950 RYD / 6 TDs

The addition of Terrell Owens can only be good for Evans. Owens will dictate coverage allowing Evans to excel on the outside where he belongs.

Evans has shown flashes over the last couple of seasons, but he might finally be able to take the next step in his development with Owens attracting the defense’s attention.

28. Antonio Bryant (TB) 1050 RYD / 5 TDs

A solid receiver without a solid quarterback option. With the singing of Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay’s focus will be on running the ball.

Bryant can continue to be a solid possession receiver, just don’t expect huge numbers.

29. Jordy Nelson (GB) 900 RYD / 6 TDs

This is his year. The Packers must recognize that Nelson is better than Donald Driver.

With Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback, the sky’s the limit. Nelson should be able to take a big step forward this year. Ladies and gentlemen, this is your 2009 sleeper candidate.

Of course, this breakout year is dependant upon Donald Driver's departure or phasing out of the offense. Either is a distinct possiblity.

30. Donnie Avery (STL) 850 RYD / 5 TDs

Avery is far and away the best receiver in the STL.

The offensive line is neither worse nor better than last season, which may inhibit Avery’s ability to have passes thrown his way.

But if Steven Jackson can get the running game going, Avery has the potential to have a solid year.

Bonus Projection:

31. Derrick Mason (BAL) 1037 RYD / 5 TDs

The Ravens failed to add any offensive weapons in this year’s draft, which hopefully won’t stunt the growth of Joe Flacco.

Mason is a great possession receiver, and was one of Flacco’s favorite targets ending last season. Mason is a much better option in a ppr league than a standard scoring league.

Fantasy Football Injury Update: Get It While It's Hot

Nathan Waddell — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 08:38:17 -0400

Good morning, good afternoon, or good evening. There was some interesting injury news this week and we’ll cover it all now.

Brian Westbrook (RB PHI) — Westbrook underwent surgery early last week to clean out bone spurs in his ankle. [Rotowire.com]

Fantasy Impact: The true extent of the injury, and the surgery, are unknown. The Eagles claim that it was a minor procedure, but information from unnamed sources is trickling out indicating that the surgery may have been more serious that then team is letting on.

We won’t know the impact this has on Westbrook’s performance for a while, but it is expected that he will be out until Week One of the season. While Westbrook may not need many reps in the preseason to get ready, until he is able to return to normal activity, he will be hard-pressed to keep up his fitness.

If you plan on drafting Westbrook, who is now available in Round Two of many drafts, make sure you get his backup, LeSean McCoy, a round earlier than his ADP.

Joseph Addai (RB IND) — It was revealed this week that Addai had arthroscopic knee surgery in the off season. He has not participated in OTAs to this point during his recovery. [Rotowire.com]

Fantasy Impact: Addai is already teetering on the edge of receiving the “permanently injured” tag, and this knee surgery does not help matters. Until Addai returns to the practice field, which should occur no later than training camp and likely earlier, we won’t know how the surgery has affected his rapidly diminishing skills.

This news will likely drop Addai’s ADP to the late fourth or early fifth rounds. While the news is damaging to Addai’s draft stock, it should cause a rapid rise in Donald Brown’s ADP. Addai is approaching fantasy irrelevance.

Matt Forte (RB CHI) — Forte left the practice field on Wednesday after hearing a “pop” in his leg. The post-injury MRI revealed no serious damage to his hamstring. [Rotowire.com]

Fantasy Impact: Well that was a close call. It’s never a good thing when a player hears any noises coming from a body part that doesn’t usually make a sound. But it looks like he’ll get through this one with no major set backs.

Assuming that there isn’t any additional undisclosed information, feel free to continue drafting Forte in the top five.

Jonathan Stewart (RB CAR) — Stewart was in practice gear this week, but did not participate in team drills. Stewart is recovering from an ankle injury of unknown severity.

Fantasy Impact: The Panthers are not commenting on Stewart’s injury, nor have any additional details leaked out. We can only assume at this point that the injury was moderate, and possibly suffered in an off the field activity as teams usually address injuries that occur at their facility.

Because Stewart is at least at practice and appears ready to go, he should be fine to draft anywhere from the fifth round on. Training camp should give us some indication on how many carries Stewart can steal from DeAngelo Williams.

The Top Five Fantasy Football Quarterbacks of 2009

Nathan Waddell — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 08:58:53 -0400

Projecting quarterback totals is an art in and of itself. So many factors must come together and work perfectly for the passing game to succeed that it's difficult to know exactly how things will shake out this far out from the start of the season.

But with that said, here are my top five quarterbacks for the 2009 fantasy football season.

1. Peyton Manning (IND) 4200 PYD / 31 PTD / 12 INT

Manning finished last season as the seventh ranked fantasy football quarterback. Going in to the season, Manning was returning from knee surgery, which limited his mobility.

Not that Manning was overly mobile in the past, but a staple of the Colts' offense was the stretch play which requires that Manning be mobile enough to move laterally to hand the ball off the the running back. Without the ability to execute this play as they had in previous seasons, the Colts offense shifted to a pass-heavy system.

The offensive line suffered a myriad of injuries and as a result were unable to play as a cohesive unit. Top it all off with Joseph Addai's injuries, and Payton ended up having a down year. Well, down for Payton at least.

This year the Colts bring in a new head coach and offensive coordinator, but the offensive system should resemble past seasons. Manning is truly the Colts' offensive coordinator.

The offensive line is not as good as it has been in the past, but is still a respectable group of hogs. Addai should be fully healed, and with the addition of Donald Brown (1.27, UConn), Addai should have a fire lit under his butt and realize that his job is in jeopardy.

With the running game in check, Manning will have control of the air and should reestablish his productive relationship with Reggie Wayne, and continue building continuity with new number two wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez.

Look for Manning to increase his yardage totals on a healed knee with a solid running game, and increase his touchdown totals.

2. Drew Brees (NO) 4500 PYD / 30 PTD / 16 INT

In 2008, Brees had the opportunity to post such gaudy numbers due to injuries to Reggie Bush, and the defense's inability to stop the Little Sisters of the Blind.

While the defense has not gotten particularity better, in the last few games of the 2008 season the Saints discovered what they had been missing all year: a running game, courtesy of Pierre Thomas. Transitioning to 2009, the Saints should continue to utilize the running game.

It should also be noted that the top two receivers on the Saints are coming off of surgery.

Marques Colston is recovering, on schedule from what we hear, from microfracture knee surgery. Lance Moore is recovering from shoulder surgery for an injury he suffered lifting weights in April.

A combination of all of these factors should be a decrease, however slight, in Brees' numbers, but an increase in the win total for the Saints.

3. Donovan McNabb (PHI) 4250 PYD / 29 PTD / 13 INT

McNabb played a full slate of games last year for the first time in a while, and put up solid numbers doing so. But he played half the year without Kevin Curtis, his No. 1 wide receiver.

Running back Brian Westbrook missed two full games, and should have sat out two more as he was totally ineffective. Even with all those issues, McNabb still put up good fantasy numbers, and for the position you drafted him, he outperformed your expectations.

For 2009, expect a big step forward. Kevin Curtis is healthy, and the Eagles added Jeremy Maclin (1.19, Missouri) to the receiving corps. The combination of last season's rookie standout DeSean Jackson and Maclin give the Eagles' passing game the verticalitythat it hasn't had since McNabb started taking snaps.

The Eagles also added their future running back in LeSean McCoy (2.21, Pittsburgh). With Westbrook pushing the wrong side of 30, and now having underwent ankle surgery this week, McCoy will fill a large role in this offense sooner rather than later.

McNabb's totals will increase this year. With the addition of McCoy, the running game will be solid even when Westbrook is sitting on the sidelines, and Maclin will be returning kicks, allowing Jackson to focus on his receiving duties. If McNabb can stay healthy, he should finish the season in the top three of fantasy quarterbacks.

4. Aaron Rodgers (GB) 4100 PYD / 28 PTD / 13 INT

Rodgers had a fantastic “rookie” season, finishing as the third best fantasy quarterback. The running game in Green Bay was nonexistent at times last year, which allowed Rodgers to post incredible numbers in his first year starting.

The running game should be back on track this season, so Rodgers' numbers may slightly decrease. However, the expected emergence of Jordy Nelson will give Rodgers' another viable threat in the passing game.

Also keep in mind that the Green Bay defense is in the middle of a transition to a 3-4 defensive scheme. Until the defense gets their legs, expect some shoddy defense performances, which will require Rodgers to perform well to get the Packers some wins.

Just imagine how good Rodgers could be with a top five tight end. He already has one of the game's top wide receivers in Greg Jennings.

There isn't really much more to say about Rodgers. He had a great year last year, and we expect it to continue this year and would be very surprised if Rodgers finished outside of the top five in 2009, barring injury of course.

5. Tom Brady (NE) 4100 PYD / 30 PTD / 10 INT

Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury during the first week of the 2008 season courtesy of Bernard Pollard. Heading in to 2008, many were expecting Brady to have a repeat performance of his all-world 2007 campaign wherein he posted 4806/50/8. Those expectations were overblown at best.

Quick question: Since 1997, how many quarterbacks have led the league in touchdowns in consecutive seasons?

Entering 2009, Brady again joins a prolific offense that was designed to score, and score quickly. However, the departure of Josh McDaniels leaves some unanswered questions as to how the offense will be designed.

The Patriots surely feel confident about Brady's rehab as they dealt backup QB Matt Cassel to Kansas City in the off season. Randy Moss and Wes Welker will continue to be Brady's favorite targets, and should post solid numbers respectively.

But don't expect the world from Brady this year. Coming back from a knee injury, one that would have been career ending just 10 years ago, takes time.

By the time the preseason starts, Brady will not have thrown a pass in an NFL game in over eleven months. It's going to take some time to shake the rust off and get back in the NFL groove. So don't expect huge 2007 numbers, and you'll be perfectly happy with his performance this season.

Answer to the quick question: Zero.

NFL: Weekend Link Love For Fantasy Football

Nathan Waddell — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 02:49:49 -0400

Welcome to the weekend. Read the following links over the next couple of days and you’ll be a fantasy football genius in no time.

Well, only if you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.

When you’re looking for an emerging undervalued wide receiver, you should target players entering their third year in the league, right?

Before you get burned by that strategy, you might want to head over to the Fantasy Football Cafe and check out some advice on drafting first and second year wide receivers.

Are you in a dynasty league? Do you have a roster spot collecting dust? Then fill it with one of these sleeper running back candidates, brought to you by the good folks over at Fantasy Football Fools.

Hey you. Yeah, you. The guy that’s about to draft Michael Crabtree as his third WR in the fifth round.

Go read the report on Rookie Wide Receiver Production over at Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy. You might change your mind.

Are you starting a new dynasty league? Or maybe your league has not yet drafted rookies. Well, you’re in luck. The Hazean has just released updated Rookie Rankings. It’s your lucky day.

You’re probably not going to believe me, but there exists, in a far away land, a librarian who plays fantasy football.

I know! I couldn’t believe it either. Go check out her site. Yes, I said her. Some of the best fantasy football links on the interwebs.

In last week’s edition of Weekend Link Love, you were given a link to some early auction values. Well, why stop there? Here are some more auction values, brought to you by our friends over at the Fantasy Football Toolbox. Variety. The spice of life.

Is it the top 10 underrated players you’re looking for? The Fantasy Football Maniaxs have you covered.

Analysis of a Mock Draft: Let ADP Be Your Guide

Nathan Waddell — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 18:54:05 -0400

Average draft position (ADP) is one of the most important pieces of information that you can have heading in to your draft. And while your draft may be months away, it's never too early to start preparing.

Over at Fantasy Football Calculator, you can run as many mock drafts as you wish, and if you register with the site, you can track each of your drafts and access them at any time for review. The site is great for getting a feel of how your draft might go.

The more experience you have drafting, the less quick choices you have to make, thereby allowing your draft to unfold smoothly and according to your plan. So I'd advise that you head over and take a look around.

The purpose of analyzing ADP is two-fold. First, you get a gauge of where players might fall in your draft allowing you to make a plan on who you will take at each of your draft spots.

Second, ADP allows you to estimate which players are being overvalued, and conversely, which are being undervalued. And value is the name of the game when it comes to a fantasy football draft. So with that in mind, let's take a look at the average draft positions for the first round of a mock draft.

1.1 Adrian Peterson (MIN) –

"All Day", as Peterson is affectionately known, is the first overall player taken off the board. This should be no surprise as last year's debate was whether to take Peterson or Tomlinson first overall.

Peterson's now secured the top spot in a large majority of this year's drafts. Peterson's said that he is going to be running heavier this year coming in to camp with twenty more pounds on his frame.

It shouldn't significantly impact his performance. You certainly can't argue with anyone who selects Peterson with the first pick, but he is by no means a complete running back.

He's often taken out of the game on third down plays. But even not playing on third down, Peterson put up 1760 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. AP's yards may decrease slightly during the 2009 campaign, but the touchdowns should increase, making him worthy of the number one overall pick.

1.2 Michael Turner (ATL) –

Turner had a very solid, and somewhat unexpected, season in 2008 posting 1699 yards with 17 touchdowns, and finishing second among running backs in most leagues. Interestingly, Turner and Peterson are the only two running backs finishing in the top ten to not have a single receiving touchdown in all of 2008.

If you were a Turner owner last year, you no doubt remember being frustrated by his boom or bust production. Don't expect anything to change this year.

The Falcons face the NFC East with stout defenses all over their schedule. In fact, the Falcons have the worst strength of schedule for running backs based on last year's defensive numbers.

While the Falcons have added a Hall of Fame tight end in Tony Gonzalez, that addition alone won't help Turner's numbers in the upcoming season, and in fact may hurt his production. Expect to see a drop off from last seasons stats.

At the second overall player taken, Turner is currently overvalued. Watch to see how the ADP changes going in to August, as I suspect that he will drop to the fourth or fifth overall pick.

1.3 Matt Forte (CHI) –

Matt Forte was the rookie sensation last season. If you grabbed Forte in the eighth round last year, you probably rode him to a playoff game, if not the championship.

The 1238 yards and 12 total touchdowns Forte posted last year should increase this year with the addition of a gun-slinging quarterback in Jay Cutler. Additionally, Forte's sub-par 3.9 yards per carry should increase as defense won't be able to key in on the running game with a true down-field threat tossing passes.

There is always a fear of a sophomore slump, but I'd look for Forte's numbers to increase. At the third overall pick, he's valued fairly accurately, if not slightly undervalued.

1.4 Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC) –

MJD only rushed for 824 yards in 2008, but put up 1389 total yards, and 14 total touchdowns. While those stats wouldn't normally propel a player to the fourth overall pick in a fantasy draft, the departure of Fred Taylor to New England makes MJD the default feature back.

The coaching staff must believe that MJD can carry a full load, but others have their doubts. In all likelihood, some form of a RBBC between MJD and either Chauncy Washington or Greg Jones will develop.

If MJD averages more than fifteen carries a game, I would be surprised. That should still be enough to put up very nice numbers combined with his receptions.

One could make an argument for drafting MJD anywhere from 1.2 to 1.5 this year. He is currently valued fairly, and depending on what he shows during training camp, his drafted position could climb through August.

1.5 Steven Jackson (STL) –

The oft-injured Jackson missed four games last season due to injury and only rushed for 1042 yards, and 8 total touchdowns. After coming back from injury last year, Jackson posted respectable yardage totals and four touchdowns during the last five games to close out the season and averaged 21 carries per game.

As with MJD before him, Jackson's current draft position is based on talent and potential. When healthy, Jackson is a punishing runner and a goal line god.

Unfortunately, the departures of Torry Holt and Orlando Pace won't do anything to help the St. Louis running game. Assuming that Jackson can stay on the field for all sixteen games this season, expect solid output.

At the fifth overall pick, Jackson is valued accurately as there isn't a player currently below him that should go before him, and there isn't a player going before him that should go below him.

1.6 Brian Westbrook (PHI) –

Look who's turning 30. And Westy is not aging gracefully. Westbrook hasn't played a full complement of games in the last three seasons.

Don't expect that to change this year either. Last season, Westbrook's yards per carry were at an all time low of 4.0.

But Westbrook put up nice touchdown numbers totaling 14 and respectable total yardage of 1338. He finished as the ninth best running back in non-ppr leagues, and I wouldn't expect anything more this year.

While Donovan McNabb is expected to have a good year, possibly a career year, things just won't translate the same for Westbrook. If I were to draft Westy, and I wouldn't at 1.6, I would do whatever it took to make sure I grabbed LeSean McCoy later in my draft. At 1.6, Westbrook is overvalued, plain and simple.

1.7 Chris Johnson (TEN) –

Rookie sensation, part deux. I owned him in every league, and was able to grab him in the twelfth round or later: an absolute steal.

Not this year though. Johnson is still in a RBBC with LenDale "Ya, I ate it" White. White also happens to be in a contract year.

White showed up to mini camp fleet of foot and light as a feather (okay, a ton of feathers). Welcome to an actual competition, Mr. Johnson.

Chris Johnson is special in the same way that Adrian Peterson is special. Just know that.

The kid's the real deal, but his touches will continue to be limited this year. He finished the season averaging an astounding 4.89 yards per carry posting 1488 total yards and 10 touchdowns, which was good enough for only 14th best running back in non-ppr leagues.

His numbers should increase with an increase in carries from only 251 to at least 275+. In reality, Johnson is probably slightly overvalued at the seventh overall pick, but if I were in the first year of a dynasty league, or a keeper league, I'd draft him here, if not higher.

This won't be his “breakout” year (as if last year wasn't), but only after this season, when LenDale finds tastier pastures, will "CJ3" truly be able to shine (and for many years to come).

1.8 Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) –

Madden Jinx. I'm done.

Okay, I'm not done. Last year was spectacular, but let's be real.

Last season was the first time in his career that Fitzgerald played all sixteen games. The first.

Last season was also the first time that Kurt Warner played all sixteen games. Heck, it was the first time Warner played more than fourteen games in a season.

The stars and moons aligned for a magical season. One likely not to be repeated.

If Warner goes down, Fitzgerald's value plummets like Circuit City stock. If Anquan Boldin is traded, then his value drops even more.

A risky pick, at best. At 1.8, Fitzgerald is overvalued based solely on last year's performance.

As we all know, last year isn't this year. If you are going to take a wide receiver in the first round, you need to get it right. I don't think Fitzy is the right pick.

1.9 LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) –

Old reliable. King of the running backs. And look who is also pushing the wrong side of 30.

As anyone who drafted LT first overall last year can tell you, he had a bit of a down year. He still finished in the top ten, but definitely did not put forth an elite performance

LT put up a pedestrian 1536 total yards and 12 touchdowns in his down year. Not bad, but he can do better, and likely will.

Rivers proved last year that he is a solid quarterback, even without a solid running game. Because the air is now open, and LT is finally healed up, expect an increase in numbers from last year, but don't expect the old LT either.

At the ninth overall selection, LT is currently undervalued. I wouldn't draft him here in a dynasty or keeper league, but in a redraft league, I'd be thrilled to get him at the end of the first round.

1.10 DeAngelo Williams (CAR) –

The top running back last year won't be the top running back this year. Williams put up incredible numbers last year, 1515 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns, but has to push through the NFC East's defenses this year.

That alone will drop his numbers. Williams outscored all other running backs by 14 points, and put up five more touchdowns than his closet competition.

Expect those numbers to regress to the norm. At 1.10, Williams is slightly overvalued.

I couldn't argue with taking him at the end of round one, but I would feel more comfortable snagging a guy who has put up good numbers over the last couple of years, not just last year.

Breaking Down a Mock Draft, Part Deux: Handcuffs and Sleepers

Nathan Waddell — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 02:01:29 -0400

Welcome back. In part one of this breakdown, we looked at the first six rounds of a mock draft, determined some winners and some losers, and decided that the starters we ended up with weren’t half bad. But starters are only part of the game.

Handcuffs: Not Just for the Boys in Blue

Depending on the size of your league, you have anywhere from five to fifteen bench spots available for your use. These are important spots and should be used wisely, not on the handcuff to the handcuff.

Well wait; what’s a handcuff? A handcuff is a viable fantasy backup to one of your studs. For instance, Chester Taylor (RB, MIN) is a prime example of a good handcuff. We know Taylor is talented, and when given the opportunity in the past, performed well. So should Adrian Peterson be stricken by the Almighty, you have Taylor ready to step in and save your squad. That’s the point of a handcuff.

Be aware that if you are targeting a talented handcuff, such as Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart, be prepared to draft that player a full round ahead of his average draft position.

Now, what you don’t need to do is handcuff a bad player to your stud. For example, if you draft Steven Jackson, like we did, you will not be drafting Antonio Pittman. Even if Pittman gets a start, and with Jackson’s spotty injury history there is a good chance he will, Pittman is not a talented enough runner to succeed on a regular basis. So there is no point in having him on your roster. He will be available on the waiver wire.

So what do you do if the backup to your stud is not a potential stud? Go find one that will flourish given the opportunity. Pierre Thomas of 2008 is a good example. Marion Barber of 2006 is another.

What you should be looking for are guys that have proven their worth at some point, but are currently backups, or guys with great potential that are currently in a timeshare. You want to avoid guys that are backups because they’ve proven that they cannot be starters.

Sleepers: Everyone’s Got One, and They Usually Stink

Sleepers aren’t even sleepers any more. Before everyone was riding the wave of the internet, successful fantasy footballers had to scour rosters, look for trends, and identify players that he knew others in the draft would overlook.

All you have to do now is hop on the Google, search for fantasy football sleepers, and voila! List after list, after list. And they look pretty much the same. That’s because there are simply a limited number of guys with the potential to make an impact on any given football team. And most of that potential rests in opportunity. A guy can’t make a difference if he’s sitting on the bench.

Leading up to the beginning of fantasy football draft season, we will delve much deeper in to the topic of sleepers and how to identify them. But for now, to find some of your own sleepers, go look for guys that are in new situations.

The player doesn’t necessarily have to be on a new team, but in a new situation (new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new quarterback, anything that has significantly changed).

If a former bench player is now starting, due to the starter’s departure, but has not preformed impressively thus far, go take a look at his college scouting reports. See if the people that get paid millions to make these decisions seem to think he has what it takes to succeed. Maybe all he needed to get it going was the chance to fight for the starting job. Who knows.

The point is simply that if you’re looking for that edge, you need to go look where other don’t. And in all reality, 90% of your sleepers won’t pan out. But when one does, like Chris Johnson or Eddie Royal, it’s all worth it.

And now on to the show…

Round 7

Round 7 Analysis

Boom: Eddie Royal in the seventh round is a great deal. Denver is moving to the Josh McDaniels offense, and Royal should function as the Wes Welker of the West. Royal will have plenty of opportunities to make plays and contribute solid numbers to your weekly fantasy score. If this were a PPR league, Royal in the seventh would be an absolute steal.

Bust: Few rookie wide receivers step in to the league and make an immediate impact. So it stands to reason that Crabtree won’t make too much noise during year one. He will show flashes of brilliance, but that’s because he is a very talented receiver. Taking Crabtree as your fourth or fifth wide receiver could pay off later in the season, but you don’t want to be relying on a rookie wide receiver to start for your team every week.

The Ninja: I was targeting both Royal and LenDale White in this round, but both were taken before I got to pick. Benson will serve as a solid RB3 this year as he is not yet in a timeshare. He still has some tread left on the tires, and is a talented back, just not as talented as top tier running backs. The return of Carson Palmer should provide some benefit to Benson’s rushing totals compared to last year.

Round 8

Round 8 Analysis

Boom: No outstanding picks this round, but Carson Palmer has a shot at comeback player of the year

Bust: No particularly bad picks either. But keep in mind that Donald Driver is on a short leash in Green Bay. The Packers know they have a good receiver in Jordy Nelson, and Nelson should get more involved in the offense this year.

The Ninja: I needed to get my WR3, but I’m not thrilled with the pick. Coles has the chance to do well in Cincinatti, but that is all dependant on what kind of performances are turned in by Palmer and Ochocinco. Coles put up respectable numbers with the Jets last season, and we are hoping that he can do the same as a Bengal.

Round 9

Round 9 Analysis

Boom: Owen Daniels is a good tight end on a great offense. He finished in the top five in most PPR leagues last season, and could have easily finished in the top five in standard scoring leagues if he would have had two more touchdowns. He is a solid option at tight end, and a good value in the ninth round. Interesting note: Daniels and wide receiver Kevin Walter rarely have done well in the same game. Seems like Schaub locks on to one or the other.

Bust: Drafting a defense anywhere before the 13th round in standard scoring leagues is a wasted pick. Even in leagues where defenses contribute decent points, there are so many hanging around the waiver wire that you can mix and match every week based on matchups. Get some value instead of a defense.

The Ninja: This is the time of the draft you need to be targeting guys with upside. Rashard Mendenhall was one of the most talented runners in last year’s draft. While he didn’t perform up to expectations in the limited snaps he took last year, he has the talent to excel. And if last year was any indication, he will have more opportunites this year if Willie Parker’s injury issues continue.

Round 10

Round 10 Analysis

Boom: Greg Olsen has the opportunity to truly make a name for himself this year. As the best receiver in Chicago, he should be a favorite target of quarterback Jay Cutler. Last season Olsen showed good potential but his output was limited by Kyle Orton’s mid-season ankle injury.

Bust: It would be so easy to again say don’t pick a defense in the tenth round, but I won’t. Earnest Graham will be splitting carries with newly-acquired running back Derrick Ward this season. But it’s not going to be an even split, with Graham getting the short end of the stick. He will also play some full back like he did to end the 2008 season. Graham basically has no fantasy value at this point.

The Ninja: If you take Ochocinco out of the discussion, things seem to be shaping up nicely in Cincinatti. The rededication of wide receiver Chris Henry has Carson Palmer jumping for joy. Palmer is suddenly on the Henry bandwagon, and that can only mean good things for Henry’s fantasy value. He could blossom in to a fantasy WR3 this season, which makes the pick in Round 10 good value.

Round 11

Round 11 Analysis

Boom: While he isn’t really a boom, Miles Austin could start the year on the outside opposite Williams, with Patrick Crayton in the slot. Austin is better suited for the outside with his speed and breakaway ability. He could have a rough year if Williams fails to live up to his billing and doesn’t dictate coverage leaving Austin with less open space in which to work.

Bust: People keep jumping on the Ricky Williams train only to exit at the first stop. Williams was once a good runner, but has not yet regained that form. He just won’t have the opportunites in Miami, where Ronnie Brown will dominate the carries. At best, Williams is a waiver wire pickup to plug a hole should you have drafted without respect to bye weeks.

The Ninja: I love this pick. LeSean McCoy can catch and he can run. The only thing he can’t do all that well, yet anyway, is block. But the first two are enough to get him on the field. Should this be the year that Westbrook suffers additional injuries, or falls of the fantasy cliff, McCoy will be there to pick up the slack. The kid is the best running back not taken in the first round.

Round 12

Round 12 Analysis

Boom: A couple of possible booms. First is Fred Taylor and his relocation to New England. It seems that the New England coaching staff has a way of rejuvinating older “washed up” players. Taylor will have the opportunity to start, but will likely split carries with any and every running back on the roster. He should do well enough to spot start if needed.

The other possible boom is Jammal Charles. While he is the second running back on the Kansas City depth chart, he fits the offense much better than Larry Johnson. Charles is a shifty scat back that does well out of the shotgun formation, something Johnson failed miserably at. I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time week 1 rolls around that we see a near 50/50 split in carries between Charles and Johnson.

Bust: Josh Morgan is now competing for the third spot on the depth chart. He was the hot sleeper last year, but frankly has little value now that the top two options, Issac Bruce and Michale Crabtree, are so talented. He will be lucky to average more than four targets per game this season. Morgan is another guy with little-to-no fantasy value at this point.

The Ninja: I don’t usually draft a backup quarterback, especially in mock drafts. But hey, for you I’ll do anything. Jake Delhomme is barely a backup option. He had a horrible end to the season, and one must wonder how that will affect him coming in to 2009. Delhomme has one of the league’s best wide receivers in Steve Smith, but the offense is now geared toward running the football, so don’t expect too many great fantasy performances from this backup quarterback.

Round 13

Round 13 Analysis

Boom: None, and there shouldn’t be.

Bust: A kicker this early? Wasted pick.

The Ninja: Alright, here is where you can take a shot at me. When I’m looking at guys to take a flyer on, I don’t usually target rookie wide receivers. However, when the rookie wide receiver is coming off of a great college career and goes to a team with a Hall of Fame quarterback, only good things can result.

Collie may do absolutly nothing this year. If so, then he will go rest on the waiver wire when I need his roster spot. But should he catch a break here, or a touchdown there, he might just be the throw in player I need to swing a deal later in the season.

Summary

You might notice that I didn’t include the final two rounds in which I would have selected a defense and kicker, respectively. That’s because they don’t matter. Really.

After the meaningful thirteen rounds, here is how my roster shakes out:

QB: Donovan McNabb / Jake Delhomme

RB: Steven Jackson / Marion Barber / Cedric Benson / Rashard Mendenhall / LeSean McCoy

WR: Marques Colston / Braylon Edwards / Laveranues Coles / Chris Henry / Austin Collie

TE: Dallas Clark

I’d be happy drafting this squad for any of my standard scoring leagues. Wide receiver is the team’s weakest link, but Dallas Clark will help pick of whatever slack there might be. If Steven Jackson can stay healthy, I’m confident that this running back tandem could be one of the best in the league.

So there you have a complete break down of a mock draft as it happened in June 2009. The fantasy football landscape will continue to evolve the closer we get to training camp, and I will do another breakdown near the end of July or the begining of August to highlight changes you should beware of .