Bleacher Report - Articles by John Zaktansky

Fundamentals the Bedrock of Hunting Safety

John Zaktansky — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 19:13:49 -0500

During the predawn hours of May 15, Shirley Grenoble hiked into the woods near Raystown Lake, in Huntingdon County, on a late spring turkey hunt. Despite the anticipation and thrill of the hunt, she forced herself to take each step quietly, carefully, so she didn’t startle her quarry.

A few hours later, Grenoble was again forcing herself to take one step after another—except this time it was for survival. Her face, neck, head, back, legs and arms were filled with small lead BBs. She blindly and unsuccessfully used one camouflage hunting glove to wipe her face, and especially her eyelids that had been pasted shut by streams of warm, sticky blood.

"I just kept walking, forcing myself to take one step after another, knowing that if I didn’t, I’d probably faint," said Grenoble as she recalled with vivid detail her ordeal from 20 years ago.

She had been the victim of a hunting accident—one that could have been avoided if two 40-year-old brothers had taken a few extra moments to properly identify their target.

"They heard turkey calls and decided to sneak towards the noise to see what was going on. That was mistake No. 1," Grenoble said. "Then they saw something moving, a flash of color, whatever. They put these clues together and it verified at that moment in their mind that they were looking at a gobbler."

Series of unfortunate events

Grenoble, a lifelong nature enthusiast, avid hunter and outdoor writer from Altoona, was no stranger to the concept of hunting accidents. Less than three weeks before her fateful hunt near Raystown Lake, Grenoble was hunting with her son, Mark, and his wife in Missouri.

"We were coming down out of the woods as quietly as we could and walked into an open green field. Someone shot, and Mark fell right at my feet," Grenoble said. "They (the landowner and a friend) heard turkey calls on top of the hill, heard something coming down towards them and couldn’t see very well from a thick, brushy gully. They saw movement and wound up shooting my son in the face.

"Mark was taken by helicopter to the hospital and BBs were removed. The doctor said that four BBs were lodged in lethal places—one missed a vital spot by the width of a thumbnail."

Grenoble returned to Pennsylvania after she knew her son was safely on the road to recovery. Spring gobbler season was winding down, and so she headed out one more time before the end of the 1989 spring season.

Following a gas pipeline through the woods above Raystown Lake, Grenoble stopped every so often to do some calling, but never got a response.

Around 9 a.m., she decided to change location again and bent down several times to pick up her belongings, including a waist pack, small pillow and her shotgun. Just then, a shot rang out and Grenoble was hit in the face by hundreds of small BBs.

"It knocked me down, just like in the movies. I knew immediately what had happened and curled up into a ball on the ground," Grenoble remembered. "There were two brothers, each with 12-gauge semi-automatics, and they fired six shots at me—at least three hit me.

"I looked up and saw the two men standing on the gas line. They were in shock. Blood was running down my face, out my mouth and nose, across my chest."

Safer than you’d think

Despite the gruesome circumstances of Grenoble’s ordeal, hunting in Pennsylvania is relatively safe from a statistical standpoint.

In 1980, there were more than 200 reported hunting-related shooting accidents in the state, but the numbers have been consistently declining since then.

Last year, just 35 incidents were reported, according to the Pennsylvania Game Commission’s Hunting-Related Shooting Incident report for 2008. Of the 35 incidents, 40 percent were self-inflicted injuries. According to the study, most of the incidents occurred on a clear day in a wooded setting during daylight hours.

Out of the 35 incidents reported, three (8.6 percent) were fatalities—all of which happened during the 2008 deer season.

The closest fatality last fall occurred in Snyder County along Old Colony Road, near the Middlecreek Antique Machinery Association grounds, when Kreamer resident Blain Spickler was accidentally shot in the abdomen when an unidentified man was attempting to unload his .243-caliber Winchester rifle.

According to the game commission, a total of 926,892 hunting licenses were sold in 2008. This means that approximately one-400,000th of one percent of all hunters who bought licences in 2008 were victims of a hunting-related shooting accident.

In fact, during 2008 there were 8,369,575 licensed drivers on Pennsylvania’s roads and 128,342 reported motor vehicle accidents. This means that motorists were 406 times more likely to be in an automobile accident last year than licensed hunters were to be in a shooting-related hunting incident.

Safety still top priority

"There are just a handful of accidents out of the thousands upon thousands of people who hunt. However, it is very easy to be misled into taking a bad shot," said Grenoble, who has used her experiences to speak publicly during the past two decades about hunting safety, including at mandatory game commission-sanctioned Hunter-Trapper Education classes.

"We spend 95 percent of our time teaching new hunters how not to become the victim, but we seldom warn them about not becoming the shooter," Grenoble said.

"But you can be the shooter. You can be deluded. Hunters think they’d never cause an accident like that, but when you are in the woods and you hear something, then see something and start putting those clues together, on top of the adrenaline, it can be easy to be tricked or fooled into making a mistake out of sincerity. I should know—it almost happened to me on one hunt after the accident."

According to Grenoble, the old cliches of hunter safety—treat every gun as if it were loaded, completely identify your target and what lies beyond it, and numerous others—are cliches for a reason.

"These fundamentals are the bedrock of hunter safety. Identify your target. Never assume because you hear something or see something move that it is the game you are after," she said.

Back in the hunt

It didn’t take Grenoble, now 74, long to return to the woods and her favorite pastime. Immediately after the accident, one of the shooters stayed with her and helped her slowly walk more than a mile down along a jagged path along the gas line. The other ran ahead to get Grenoble’s truck.

Later, at the hospital, Grenoble had to endure a lengthy surgery to remove lead BBs from all over her body. Two additional surgeries were needed in the months after the incident to remove a BB that had lodged into a finger joint and another from the back of her head that had gotten infected.

She was ready to return to hunting by the following fall season. She is currently in the midst of her 55th year of hunting in Pennsylvania.

And how did her experiences 20 years ago change her view on hunting?

"I still get a little antsy when I go around the corner of a cornfield or walk into an opening in the brush. More than ever, I don’t want to be the one who shoots someone else, so it takes me longer to take a shot than it used to. If I am in the woods and hear something behind me, I must turn and look. I break into a cold sweat if I don’t," she said.

"But hunting has been a lifestyle to me for a long time. I wasn’t going to let some yahoo take that away from me."

E-mail comments to zaktansky@gmail.com . Originally published here .

Adopting a Child Enhanced By Outdoor Activities, Lessons

John Zaktansky — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:23:17 -0500

The best thing about that cool, yet sunny autumn morning was the shots that weren’t fired.

My then-17-year-old adopted son, Peito, a family friend and I had gone on a dove hunt at the State Game Lands near Mifflinburg, PA. It was an ordinary day in the field ... except that Peito had just passed his hunters safety course and was hunting for the first time.

Taking a youth on his/her first official hunt is nerve-wracking for any parent—but especially for one of an adopted child. Only so much of hunting ethics can be taught in a classroom setting—many more lessons need to be taught in live-action situations, where life-and-death decisions are based on a solid foundation of ethics, common sense and respect for the outdoors, wildlife and other hunters.

That is why the Pennsylvania Game Commission’s mentored hunts are so valuable ... they encourage parents and children to get into the woods and spend quality time together—for children to see their parents making responsible and respectful outdoor decisions while hunting, and to develop those skills early...To make them second-nature well before the child takes his first gun into the woods.

I didn’t have that extra time with Peito. Seventeen years worth of experience and learning had to be condensed into two (he started living with us at age 15).

So, when that first dove rocketed out of a standing corn row and circled between Peito and myself, I was curious on how Peito would respond. I was ready to tell him to keep his gun down until the dove was in a safe shooting range—and if that didn’t happen, to pass up on the shot altogether and wait for the next find.

I didn’t have to say anything. He waited patiently. When the dove was in a safe shooting direction, his 20-gauge shotgun came to life and he bagged the bird with one shot.

Farther down the same corn row, near the edge of Route 104, two more doves sprung out into the crisp autumn air. They were between Peito and the road. Knowing it wasn’t a safe shot, Peito watched the doves circle and fly off into the distance. Not a shot was fired.

Two months later, we were hunting deer with high-powered rifles. I felt much more at ease considering Peito’s track record to that point with responsible hunting. On the first day, when a nice-sized doe stood on the crest of a ridge, he avoided the temptation to shoot since he couldn’t safely tell where his bullet would go.

As I think back to those moments, I can’t help but feel pride in our son for his responsible decision making in what could have been life-and-death situations.

What if we hadn’t adopted him? Would he have those lessons with another, possibly non-hunting, family?

It’s impossible to say. However, there is no doubt that our outdoor resources in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna Valley provide great opportunities to help a young person develop character, responsibility and self-value.

These traits don’t just come from hunting opportunities, but can also be easily taught via a canoeing expedition, family hike, horseback trail ride, or weekend camping trip.

This past Labor Day, my wife and I had twin ten-year-old foster girls in our home. We decided to spend the long weekend on a family camping trip. It turned out to be the first camping experience for the girls, along with their first time setting up a tent, going on a nature hike, and fishing.

Seeing the twins beaming with pride after catching bluegills was a moment I won’t soon forget. However, more importantly, it was a moment that they’ll cherish for a lifetime and can draw upon when faced with new challenges in day-to-day living.

There are currently hundreds of profiles for children on the Pennsylvania Statewide Adoption Network (SWAN) Web site. Children of all ages, sizes, colors and backgrounds —all needing the same thing: a family that will love them for who they are and challenge them to become the best, most responsible adults possible.

To be a good adoptive (or foster) parent, you don’t need to catch the biggest fish, run the roughest rapids or hike the farthest with your trail pack. You just need to get involved, get outdoors and spend time with children who are craving love, guidance and opportunities to grow.

For more about adoption in the state of Pennsylvania, go to the SWAN Web site (www.adoptpakids.org ) or contact an independent child care agency, such as Families United Network (570-651-9016 or www.families4kids.org ).

Comprehensive Guide to Deadline Dealing: Who to Target, Who to Dump

John Zaktansky — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 01:01:28 -0500

Two weeks from Friday, most standard fantasy leagues will see their trade deadline come and go.

Considering that most fantasy trades take time to develop, now is the time to really assess your team and determine if you need to make some moves.

Notice that your team is weak at a certain position? Lacking depth in key areas? Think you are out of contention in your dynasty league, and looking to rebuild for 2010? Now is the time for action.

Obviously the mantra for most successful trading is to sell high and buy low.

Here are some position-by-position players to consider trading away or dealing for before the coming trade deadline.

Quarterbacks

Trade for:

Kurt Warner, ARI —Coming off one of the worst games of his career against the

Panthers last week (27-for-46 for 242 yards and five interceptions), Warner’s stock is very low at the moment. He’s 16th in scoring among all fantasy QBs. However, Warner has a really easy schedule coming up...one almost too easy for quarterbacks to have significant value.

However, the Cardinals offense is centered around the pass. With playmakers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to throw to, Warner’s numbers can’t continue to be this pedestrian. Warner’s best statistical outputs came against the three easiest teams during the first eight weeks: Jacksonville, Houston, and Seattle. Now after a game in Week Nine where the Cardinals match up with an up and down Chicago defense, Arizona then plays Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee, Minnesota (yes, the Vikings are weak in passing defense), San Francisco, Detroit, and St. Louis.

Warner should be targeted the hardest in all redraft leagues. It is hard to imagine him having much value beyond this season, however. If you do land Warner, make sure to pick up Matt Leinart off waivers. If Warner does somehow struggle against cupcake teams like he did against Carolina, Leinart could see more action in an offense that is loaded with talent.

Alex Smith, SF —Warner too expensive for your wallet? Try Smith for a cheap source of stats the rest of the way. Smith has fared well since taking over the reins from Shaun Hill two weeks ago, and has a sexy-good slate of opposing defenses down the stretch. The Niners finish with Tennessee, Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Seattle, Arizona, Philadelphia, and Detroit. San Francisco’s young receiving corps is improving with time, especially rookie Michael Crabtree, who had six catches for 81 yards against the Colts.

Trade away:

Matt Schaub, HOU —It may seem crazy to deal away a player that has probably carried your team this season, and who is currently the second-highest fantasy scoring QB in the NFL at the moment. However, it is hard to imagine him keeping up his torrid pace. He lost one of his most trusted receiving options (tight end Owen Daniels is out for the season), and the Texans still have their bye on the horizon (week 10). Plus, Houston has some really questionable matchups in the near future, including two against the Colts in the next four weeks and Miami in what will be the championship game of many fantasy leagues. Questions about Steve Slaton’s availability moving forward thanks to issues with fumbles means that Schaub may see yet another hit in his receiving options.

Brett Favre, MIN —He is tied with Matt Schaub for the lead in QB touchdown throws this year. He is coming off a 33-point performance (in leagues where he earned six points per TD and one point per 25 yards passing) in his revenge match against the Green Bay Packers. After this week’s bye, however, the Vikings play a series of games against teams who are mediocre at best. Favre won’t be needed to carry the team—it

will be Adrian Peterson’s show for the foreseeable future. Plus, Favre followed this same pattern last season—playing great the first half of the season until injuries took their toll and slowed him the rest of the way. Not saying he’ll break down again this year—he does have a much better supporting cast in Minnesota—but there is always the possibility.

Running Backs

Trade for:

Ronnie Brown, MIA —Remember the mantra: buy low, sell high. Ronnie owners are seething right now after consecutive weeks of Ricky Williams stealing Brown’s thunder. Add in an unfavorable matchup for Miami this week in New England, and you have all the ingredients for a good buy-low stew. However, you can forget Ricky Williams after this week. The Dolphins play such a run-friendly slate the rest of the way, there will be plenty of stats to go around. Starting in Week 10, Miami plays Tampa Bay, Carolina, Buffalo, New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Houston. Brown, who is integral for the team’s wildcat scheme and catches his fair share of passes as well, will see much better days as the season progresses. Pounce now, or kick yourself later.

Beanie Wells, ARI —In redraft leagues, many are nervous that Tim Hightower will continue to eat away at Beanie’s opportunities. However, watching both players, it is obvious that Wells has so much more to offer in terms of explosiveness, big-play ability and all-around potential.

The Cardinals are struggling this season and need to find their identity. The passing game isn’t the cure-all it was last year, and it is just a matter of time until Wells becomes the team’s defacto go-to weapon. Too boot, the Cardinals have a sweet schedule the rest of the way, especially during the fantasy playoffs, where Beanie will be lighting up the fantasy scoreboard against the Lions and Rams, respectively.

Trade away:

Matt Forte, CHI —You trade players when their value is maxed out, and that is exactly where Forte is at the moment. There have been few players more disappointing this season as Forte—a consensus top-five pick in most fantasy drafts this summer. He has struggled against all except the easiest of opposing teams (the only decent games were against Detroit and Cleveland), and has a slew of challenging matchups as the season progresses. The kicker is looking ahead to the fantasy playoff weeks, where Forte plays arguably the toughest run defense slate in back-to-back contests with Baltimore and Minnesota.

Michael Turner, ATL —

It amazes me how much love this guy got in PPR leagues to start the season considering how uninvolved he is in the Falcons passing game. This year, he has just three catches all season, and has struggled to be the TD machine that defined his breakout campaign in 2008. He is coming off 151 yards rushing and a TD against the New Orleans Saints, but has a smattering of really tough defenses in the horizon. His Week 16 (typical fantasy championship) matchup with Buffalo is really juicy, but his play the rest of the fantasy regular season may doom any chances of you getting to that point.

Wide Receivers

Trade for:

Calvin Johnson, DET —Say what you will about Calvin’s recent injury woes and the inconsistent rookie play at quarterback for the Lions—the bottom line is that when Megatron plays, he produces. His last full game of action was a Week Four matchup with the Bears, in which he had eight catches for 133 yards. As soon as he returns to the field, expect instant dividends, and all signs are pointing towards a return this week. The remaining schedule is passing-friendly, and Calvin will finish the year ranked up where he belongs—among the WR elite.

Steve Smith, CAR —Has any player underperformed as hideously as Steve Smith this year? Like the much-hyped Carolina Panthers, Smith has been non-existent. He has found himself riding the fantasy pine in many leagues and even dropped by a few short-sighted managers. However, look closer to his performance the past two weeks—a 6-for-99 outing against Buffalo and a 3-for-56 (and a long-awaited TD) against Arizona this past week. The Panthers made a statement against the Cardinals, and it wouldn’t be far-fetched to expect the team to start riding that momentum to a much-needed torrid stretch. Smith will rebound, and he can be had at the moment for a few empty peanut shells.

Trade away:

Donald Driver, GB —Currently the 12th-highest scoring receiver in football, it is hard to expect Driver to keep up the pace for an entire season. Aaron Rodgers struggles to stay upright game in and game out due to a horrific O-line. Rodgers has also mastered the art of spreading around his passes (especially recently) and Greg Jennings, who has a much higher ceiling, is primed to cut more and more into Drivers’ production.

Steve Smith, NYG —After an amazingly torrid start to the season, Smith has cooled off considerably. He hasn’t scored a TD in four straight games and hasn’t had over 100 yards receiving since his Week Four matchup with Kansas City. The Giants are really spreading the ball around, and Smith will continue to struggle with consistency down the stretch because of that. Thanks to such a huge start, Smith still has plenty of trade interest in fantasy circles...but if you can swing him for Calvin Johnson or Steve Smith, then by all means, go for it.

Tight Ends

Trade for:

Jason Witten, DAL —No one in their right mind would have expected Witten to be 16th among all tight ends at this point in the season in terms of fantasy scoring. A major reason for that was the emergence of Miles Austin. What makes Witten’s numbers so deceiving is that he’s scored just one TD all season. It isn’t that he’s not targeted in the offense—in fact, he’s tied for fourth in the league in receptions with Antonio Gates and Brent Celek. As Austin demands more and more attention from opposing defenses, the short passing game will get more breathing room and Witten will start notching some touchdowns. He’s about as cheap as he’ll be all season.

Jermichael Finley, GB —This is more a dynasty league suggestion than anything else, but Finley has proven that he’s the apple of Rodgers’ eye when it comes to tight ends on the Packers. Finley has been sidelined with a knee injury, and will likely miss this week’s contest against Tampa Bay. However, Finley will be explosive again when he returns and should be a top tight end for years to come if he can build off the momentum he started with a 6-for-128 performance against Minnesota in Week Four.

Trade away:

Vernon Davis, SF —Davis looks like a favorite of new QB Alex Smith. However, his stats are greatly inflated from his 7-for-93, three TD game against Houston during Week Seven. Since then, the team has welcomed rookie Michael Crabtree into the fold, and Crabtree continues to see more and more looks and action in the passing game. Davis will be affected the most by this. I’m not saying he won’t still have some solid games, just that they’ll sporadic moving forward.

Read more of this column and other in-depth analysis at www.chinstrapninjas.com , where I'm working to develop a comprehensive list of players you should target in trades, dump in trades and float feelers on.

My Second Half, All-Value Fantasy Football All-Star Team

John Zaktansky — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 01:10:30 -0400

I was about to walk out the front door of The Daily Item office building the other day when I noticed the Incredible Hulk’s little brother perched on the step.

Everything about the guy was huge: Huge biceps, huge tattoos on his biceps, and a huge bulging wall-like structure where his neck should have been. He wore a dirty white wife beater. His hair was slicked straight back with what looked like 10W40 motor oil. He was even missing a tooth.

I swerved away from the front door and instead walked to the side door. The only person in sight was a 40-something balding man in a white dress shirt and Smurf-blue tie. I walked out the side door and drove home.

During the drive, I realized how silly I had been. Just because the guy at the front door looked as though he could snap my neck with his pinkie finger didn’t mean he was going to.

The white-collar dude at the side door could have been just as unstable. Packing a Glock. Ready to go on some inner-office shooting spree. You don’t need Arnold Schwartzenegger’s biceps to pull the trigger on a handgun or drive a knife into someone’s ribcage.

Perceptions can blind us.

For example, heading into this season, I was as intimidated of Cedric Benson on the football field as much as I would be of arm-wrestling Betty White at a Golden Girls reunion.

But Cedric Benson has driven many a fantasy owner’s teams into early playoff contention. Everyone knows what you get when you draft Adrian Peterson...but snagging a Cedric Benson late provides instant mega-value and gives owners some depth and flexibility that helps propel them into title contention.

Look at the teams who are kicking tail in your respective leagues. I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts that you’ll find players such as Ray Rice, Matt Schaub, and Benson on many of those rosters.

But that doesn’t help moving forward. To take out the competition, you need to identify the next crop of soon-to-be fantasy studs.

Here is my second-half super fantasy value team of players that you should be targeting via trades in your respective fantasy leagues:

Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit : Currently 15th among all running backs in PPR scoring formats, Kevin Smith is on the cusp of skyrocketing in value. The main reason is because Smith is one of just a few backs who have the only set of keys to his respective team’s running games.

There are no RBBC in Detroit, and Smith has shown that he can be productive as the primary weapon. Both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson were sidelined with injuries, but both are on the verge of returning, which will help open up the running lanes.

Plus, Smith has arguably the easiest remaining schedule when it comes to run defenses. The time to buy low may be closing fast, however, as Smith should explode statistically as early as this week against St. Louis.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay: Finley broke out in a major way several weeks ago against Minnesota, going for over 120 yards and a score. He catapulted past Donald Lee as primary tight end and overall offensive weapon for a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who will only expedite Finley’s skill set.

The young tight end’s value took a small dip when he left last week’s game with a knee injury, and he will likely miss this week’s contest against the Vikings. However, expect him to tear things up when he returns in Week Nine and will be a factor in many a fantasy playoff game.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta: Currently 15th in scoring among fantasy QBs, Ryan finds himself in a situation that should propel him into fantasy stardom. First, he has plenty of weapons in the passing game. Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are both healthy and primed for a strong second half.

Michael Turner is good enough to keep defenses honest, but not dominating in the TD department like he was last season...leaving plenty of opportunities for Ryan in the red zone. Finally, after this week’s match-up against a surprisingly adept New Orleans passing game, Ryan’s schedule gets noticably easier moving forward.

Sidney Rice, WR, Minnesota: Currently 14th in scoring among receivers in PPR formats, Rice’s value continues to rise as it becomes apparent that he is Favre’s go-to receiver in Minny moving forward.

He ranks ninth among receivers in receptions, many of which have come in the past couple weeks. Favre will lock in to Rice early and often against Green Bay this week, and the only week that Rice should struggle statistically is Minnesota’s Week Nine bye.

Which players are you targeting in fantasy football leagues? Check out more hard-hitting fantasy advice and projections at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Eleventh, and Most Important, Rule for Successful Fantasy Football Trading

John Zaktansky — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 00:02:51 -0400

In mid-September, I wrote my Trade Tutorial , which outlined ten key rules to successful fantasy trading.

And I continue to stand by those 10 guidelines (in-depth discussion on each in my original Trade Tutorial story):

1. Always look to improve your team.

2. Know the other league owners.

3. Studs typically produce.

4. Other owner is looking to improve his team, too.

5. Time is on your side.

6. No player is untradeable.

7. It is OK to counter an offer.

8. Watch the injury reports and transaction lists.

9. Evaluate other trades.

10. Get trusted feedback before pulling the trigger.

However, the list isn’t complete if I don’t introduce the 11th, and possibly most important rule. ...

Between weeks three and four, I was in hot and heavy trade negotiations in my competitive dynasty money league. It is a PPR league, and I was gaining more of an appreciation for Detroit running back Kevin Smith.

After some discussions with his owner in the league, we hammered out the details on a potential trade. I was going to deal my Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts and Beanie Wells for his Kevin Smith, Rashard Mendenhall and Jermichael Finley. In fact, the other owner offered me the deal. All I needed to do was to hit the accept button.

It was a slam-dunk trade from my standpoint. Sure losing Beanie Wells in a dynasty league could have hurt in a couple years. But Rashard Mendenhall and Kevin Smith are both young.

At that point, Mendenhall was still Willie Parker’s backup. Everything in my gut was telling me to hit the accept button and do a couple fist pumps in celebration.

But I ignored that feeling. I decided to think about it a while. To get feedback from others. I talked to more than 20 people with varying levels of fantasy experience. Many were really leery of me dealing Beanie. In fact, the advice I got was really split.

I finally decided the next day to accept the deal.

It was too late. The owner got cold feet, pulled the offer and wouldn’t revisit the deal.

One day later, Rashard Mendenhall went off for 32 fantasy points (including receptions) against San Diego.

Kevin Smith, who went into the game with Chicago injured, still rattled off two rushing TDs. Jermichael Finley broke out with a six-catch, 128-yard and one-TD performance against the Vikings.

Meanwhile, Beanie Wells was on a bye week and Clinton Portis rushed for 98 yards and a respective nine fantasy points.

The point in all this?

When considering trades, never discount your gut reaction. Don’t feel you need to second-guess yourself if you feel in your heart (even if others aren’t as optimistic in their feedback).

Sure, using such philosophy will blow up in your face from time to time. For example, I fully expected Bernard Scott to be the starting tailback in Cincinnati by this point in the season.

However, you’ll find that over the course of a season, gut reactions to trades and even regular roster moves will work in your favor more often than not.

Last Saturday evening as I was finalizing my fantasy rosters, I noticed that I had Kris Brown (Houston kicker) starting in my dynasty league. Yet, the Texans were playing Arizona, and I’ve always avoided kickers in games where TDs would be emphasized over field goals.

My immediate gut reaction was to replace Brown, and was eyeing either Dan Carpenter or Jay Feely, who I knew would both play in a much closer game conducive to field goals.

However, instead of listening to my gut reaction, I was lazy and left Brown in. He finished with three total fantasy points and my team tied in a heartbreaker. Either Carpenter or Feely would have won me the game.

So...when push comes to shove and you aren’t sure what to do with a fantasy football situation, do a gut check and don’t look back.

10 Players Who Will Make or Break Your Fantasy Trade Negotiations

John Zaktansky — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 00:42:04 -0400

We may be only one-seventh of the way through the fantasy regular season (for those in leagues who play 14 weeks of regular season action), but that is enough to start the juices flowing for true trade-aholics like myself.

While many saner fantasy “experts” would urge patience and caution before jumping into the trading market, I’m recommending that all owners channel their ninja senses and go for the trade-button jugular.

This is mainly because of what is lining up to be a major value wave among the ranks of fantasy elite after the first two weeks of action.

Below are players who should figure heavily into trade discussions sooner rather than later.

1. Matt Forte. A horrific start for the Bears second-year player has many whispering about a sophomore slump. What many may overlook is that Forte started the season against two very solid run defenses and has weathered a period of transition in the passing game as Jay Cutler and company work to define their roles.

Forte will burst back into the fantasy scene this week against a Seattle defense that has been shredded on the ground (most recently by Frank Gore). If you’ve been slow to trading in the past, this is the one opportunity you don’t want to drag your feet on.

Many may be slow to deal him so early in the season, but then again, people who drafted Forte are likely facing an 0-3 start to the season—plenty of reason to panic.

2. Steve Slaton. The Texans have been on an offensive roller coaster ride so far this season, but Slaton has been the one constant—constantly stale. Two weeks, two excessively poor performances.

Slaton is a harder case to judge (than Forte), in my opinion. He faced one of the most under-rated defenses in football in the Jets in Week One, and ran against a stingy Titans defense last week...one that was much more susceptible to the pass than the run.

His three fumbles are worrisome, as are comments from coach Kubiak that the Texans should have considered Cedric Benson this offseason. Regardless, Slaton is too talented not to turn it around at least somewhat, and has a slate of games now schedule-wise that he should be able to exploit (Jaguars, Raiders, Cardinals, Bengals).

He’s too bargain-basement not to throw some offers out for at this point, I just worry that he sees more struggles this season that Matt Forte will.

3. Clinton Portis. I said before that these are players who should be involved in trade discussions, and Portis is an interesting case. Everyone considers the name Portis to be synonymous with consistency from a fantasy standpoint, and for years that was the case.

He did tank it as the season progressed last year and has been mediocre at best in 2009.

His stats against the Rams last week was disheartening, but he still should rebound mightily against the Lions this week. After that, however, I would recommend floating his name around your league to see what interest is out there.

If Portis does light things up in Week Three, he could be a solid bartering piece for you to land a younger, long-term option for the rest of the long haul.

4. Aaron Rodgers. It pains me to say this in public, but I have severe concerns for Rodgers after watching my beloved Packers after two weeks of action. The O-line and the overall pass blocking is atrocious. He spent more time in the grass last week than my push mower does in a month.

If this keeps up, the biggest question about Rodgers won’t be how many TD's he chucks or yards he passes for, but how long until he is hampered by a major injury.

This week, the Packers, and Rodgers in particular, should fare pretty well against the Rams. However, after that, the team hits a tough part of the scheduling starting with a Week Four Monday night game against the Vikings. I would strongly consider dealing Rodgers after this week for a under-rated fantasy QB such as Matt Ryan.

5. Michael Turner. Drafted in the top three of most fantasy leagues, Turner has put up pedestrian numbers the first two weeks of the season. Considering his campaign last year and the slow start to 2009, he should be a buy-low candidate, right?

Not so fast.

First, he’s basically a non-factor in the Falcons' passing game, limiting his value in PPR leagues. Secondly, his big saving grace last year was the 17 rushing touchdowns. This year, the addition of Tony Gonzalez along with a more prolific passing attack in general will logically eat away at Turner’s scoring opportunities.

Will he still have big games? Sure! Will be he one of the top three scoring running backs in fantasyland? I’m not so sure.

6. Pierre Thomas. Pierre was primed for big numbers until bitten in the preseason by the injury bug. He sat on the sidelines and watched Mike Bell garner all the stats and attention that Thomas was due.

In a weird twist of fate, Bell is now the one injured and Thomas is on the verge of headlining the rushing game. Now is a good time to buy Pierre and hope that he starts fast out of the gates to keep Bell at bay.

7. Anthony Gonzalez. As most anyone who watches football knows by this point, Gonzalez’s promising 2009 season was sidetracked by a sprained PCL. He’ll be out another month or so. However, when he does come back, Gonzalez has the makings of a solid sleeper receiver in an offense geared towards the pass.

If you are in a dynasty league, you should definitely be making some offers for AGonzo. However, even in redraft leagues for the right price, the young Colts receiver would be a good player to stash away for a rainy day when your team is making a push for a playoff spot.

8. Joe Flacco. After two weeks of play, which QB has 500 yards passing and five touchdowns? No one would have guessed that Flacco would be in this category.There is a reason for that—the Ravens have always been a run-first, pass-second offense.

Flacco adds a new dimension to the offense, but the Ravens have several able-bodied running backs in Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and LeRon McClain and a lackluster group of receivers. Flacco’s numbers will slip in the near future, and now may be a good time to deal him for a Matt Ryan or even a Matt Schaub, if you can.

9. Tim Hightower. The Cardinals running back has been a statistical fireworks display in PPR leagues thanks to a ton of receiving yards and opportunities in the offense. However, Arizona will be a different team when Anquan Boldin is on the field and fully healthy, limiting Hightower’s numbers in the passing game.

Also, the Cardinals will continue to inject more and more of rookie Beanie Wells into the offensive scheme. Depending on which players you can get for Hightower, he may be a guy worth dangling in trade talks.

10. Knowshon Moreno. It was bound to happen sooner rather than later for the most talented running back on the Broncos roster. Moreno, a rookie, was given 17 carries and capitalized for 75 yards along with two catches for 22 additional yards through the air.

This may have gone unnoticed in mostly redraft leagues due to lack of touchdowns...something that will change as Moreno has more and more opportunities to flash his talent on the field.

Want more sound fantasy advice? Check out ninja ep's Week Two recap, a box-by-box review of each Week Two game with individualized fantasy analysis, charts, and analysis on points allowed by position after Week Two and a detailed discussion on the NFL's most targeted players after two weeks of play.

Week 2 Waiver Wonders: Guys To Snag Now, Celebrate Later

John Zaktansky — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 00:22:10 -0400

You’re a fantasy owner with a lot on your plate. Time is growing short. Lineups need to be finalized. Last-minute waiver pickups need to be made.

So, out of respect for your time (and because I don’t feel all that well at the moment), I’ll cut straight to the chase this week.

The following are my Week Two Waiver Wonders (a.k.a. guys you may want to grab now before lockdown so you don’t have to fight with other league owners for these guys Tuesday).

Like a small child, I plan on repeating this name over and over and over until fantasy owners get so sick of it, they pick up Earl Bennett. They’ll be thanking me as the season goes on—especially in PPR leagues. Bennett will continue to be highly targeted this week against the Steelers, and without Troy Polamalu on the field (and considering how well Justin Gage and Kenny Britt fared last week against Pittsburgh), I expect Bennett to turn some heads. He’s still only owned in 34 percent of all Yahoo leagues.

You would expect that Chester Taylor would be owned in more than 34 percent of Yahoo leagues, especially considering everyone’s obsession with handcuffing and some fears (which I have) that Adrian Peterson won’t make it through the season unscathed. Sunday, against the Lions, Taylor will get plenty of action in garbage time and will make the most of it.

One of the most talented players in the NFL, Chris Henry, continually opens mouth and inserts foot...getting in his own way with legal issues and off-field theatrics. Last week, the highly touted sleeper finished with just one catch for 18 yards, and suddenly everyone dives off the bandwagon. Give him some time. This week, the Packers' defense will be tough, but the Bengals should find themselves in situations of airing out the game to keep up with the Green Bay offense. Henry (owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues) will see his stock rise.

As a Reggie Wayne fan, I’d love to live in some fantasy world where Wayne continues to get a zillion targets per game with Anthony Gonzalez sidelined. However, defenses will start clamping down on Wayne and Dallas Clark, and Peyton Manning will need to lean on Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. It remains to be seen how they will be utilized in the offense, but it wouldn’t hurt to stockpile both guys (if you have the room) until their roles are more defined. Garcon is owned in just three percent of Yahoo leagues, and Collie is owned in one percent.

Another name I plan on repeating until I brainwash you all is Mark Sanchez. The QB mojo and bravado I talked about here was on display last week against the Texans. I predict Sanchez will be one of those players that will deal with bad matchups and tricky defenses with a calm collectedness that allows him to excel both in real life and as a backup QB option in fantasy. He’s owned in just 34 percent of Yahoo leagues, and I wonder what that number would fall to if you took out dynasty leagues from the stats.

Those expecting Darren McFadden to become a truly featured back and sleeper for the season were rudely interrupted by some guy named Michael Bush. Bush has been a sleeper candidate in the past, but it looks like the Raiders are finally committing to get him the ball, especially in third down and goal line situations. Bush is owned in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues, but expect that to change very soon after the Raiders play against the Chiefs this weekend.

Speaking of situations where backs see their carries cut into, I fully expect Jamaal Charles to become a bigger part of the Chiefs offensive plan moving forward. That theory will be tested Sunday as the Chiefs play the Raiders’ suspect run defense. Johnson will still get his carries, but Charles is much more a threat in the passing game and offers dynamics that the aging Johnson doesn’t anymore.

For more hard-hitting ninja insight into fantasy football, check out www.chinstrapninjas.com

Trading Tutorial: Your One-Stop Guide To Successful Trade Negotiations

John Zaktansky — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 00:43:19 -0400

They say the first step in making a recovery from addiction is to admit you have a problem.

Well, I am a trade-aholic. I get a rush every time a trade is accepted by both parties. I’ve completed all kinds of trades in the past, with mixed results. I have learned a lot of life lessons from the world of trading in fantasy sports, and since the season is finally here—and everyone will be looking for a competitive edge, I felt it was a good time to share some pointers.

Trade Rule No. 1: Always look to improve your team.

Seems simple enough, but then again, it can be really easy to forget if someone dangles one of your favorite players in front of you. If you feel that your team needs a boost at running back, then don’t reach on a trade to improve a different position. Don’t simply pull the trigger on a deal because you’re bored or because your favorite player is involved—your team’s final score each week is the only thing that really matters.

Trade Rule No. 2: Know your other league owners.

This is much easier if you are in a league with people you know outside of fantasy sports or if you have a live draft. You know the type—the Buffalo Bills fan who wears his new Terrell Owens jersey to the draft. Taking note of this could be a crucial move on your part—because there is a good chance the same guy will overpay for Owens in a trade at some point during the season.

I live in central PA, and never mind getting a few Steelers or Eagles on my respective teams, because there are at least one or two diehard Pittsburgh or Philadelphia fans in each of my leagues.

It also pays to know what other teams in your league lack. For example, in one league, I drafted Jason Witten and was excited to be set at the tight end position. However, after the draft, I noticed that no one had drafted John Carlson. Knowing he was in store for a solid season, I picked him up. After that, my first line of business was to find the other teams in the league who were really hurting at tight end, and to plan some offers with Witten (since he has the bigger perceived value) that would help me improve at other skills positions.

In another league, I was forced to do an autopick draft. I found a slew of receivers with upside on my team, but you only need so much depth. Starters are the only ones who count in actual game time. I started shopping receivers.

Trade Rule No. 3: Water’s wet, the sky’s blue and studs typically produce.

Did you notice which players struggled in week one?

Steve Slaton, Michael Turner, Matt Forte and others were extremely disappointing and many fantasy football owners are quick to panic. It happens every year—certain guys are slow out of the gate, and their respective fantasy owners break out in a cold sweat. Suddenly that first, second or third-round pick doesn’t seem as rock-solid as before. This isn’t something that will happen overnight, but as we get into week two, three and four, you may find one or two owners in your league willing to pull the trigger on one of their draft studs who is slacking at the on the field.

On the flip side, if you are the guy who owns Slaton, Turner, Forte or other week one underachievers, it is important to remember the mantra that studs will typically produce (eventually). You wouldn’t go out and spend $30,000 on a new car, only to sell it a week or two later for $20,000 or less just because the engine light stayed on an extra couple seconds when you started the car last.

Slaton, Turner, Forte and company represent stock that has taken a nose-dive, but should bounce back in a reasonably short amount of time. You don’t want to give away stock when it is lowest in value. The goal is to get top dollar for your investment. Selling low doesn’t allow you to do that.

Trade Rule No. 4: The other guy is looking to improve his team, too.

It may be hard to avoid throwing out some one-sided trades to league mates, but remember that the other guy is trying to improve, too. Throw too many one-sided deals at the other owners in your league, and they may soon look at you as the trade dude who’s calling wolf. They may never look at one of your trade proposals seriously, regardless of what you are offering.

I know this rule well, because I used to be this guy—the one who tried to wear down league owners with a barrage of trades that may not have been totally equal on both sides. Ask yourself the following before offering a deal: “If I was the other owner, would I really accept this deal?”

Trade Rule No. 5: Time is on your side.

If someone in your league offered you a deal and you are uncertain as to what to do, perhaps the best rule of thumb is to not rush the decision. Sleep on it. Take some time to look at stats and get feedback from other trusted fantasy owners.

Yes, an owner may be particularly anxious to make a deal and may move on to another owner if you don’t pull the trigger quickly, but then again, if you are that uncertain about the trade, than it may be for the best if things don’t work out. The only timeline that you need to remember is your league’s trade deadline.

Trade Rule No. 6: No player is untradeable.

Luckily, in fantasy sports, we don’t need to deal with egocentric backlashes a la Jay Cutler. If someone offers you a deal for one of your studs, it may be in your best interest to at least consider the deal and look at counter offers. Yes, having Adrian Peterson is great, but if someone offers you a package of really nice players in return—especially ones that plug glaring holes in your starting lineup, than it may be hard to resist.

Typically, the teams with one or two super-studs and a supporting cast of lesser players doesn’t stay as competitive season-long as a team loaded with balanced talent across the board. Yes, Peterson will get you X-number of touchdowns, X-number of yards and a boatload of overall fantasy points, but improving yourself at a number of other positions may be more beneficial to the big picture of your fantasy team.

Trade Rule No. 7: It is OK to counter an offer.

In fact, it is critical in many cases for both sides to reach a true agreement if both sides know exactly what is needed to complete a deal. I know many people who feel that if someone else “low-balls” them on a trade offer, the best course of reaction is to ignore it and never communicate in return—or to offer back a really ridiculous offer.

However, it is obvious that the other owner has an interest in certain guys on your roster. Why not offer something realistic back—targeting the people on his roster that you would really like?

It can’t hurt, and it may actually help lead to a compromise that nets you some really solid talent.

Trade Rule No. 8: Watch the injury reports and transaction lists.

Being one step ahead of your league mates is always a good practice.

If you notice that a certain player is injured, and feel that the injury may not be a season-threatening or overall stat-threatening (like a leg injury on your primary running back), than it may not hurt to throw out an offer for an injured player—especially if you can snag that player for a couple of your bench warmers.

A different example includes position battle injuries. For example, perhaps you see that Kurt Warner, current Cardinals starting quarterback, is struggling majorly and may be fighting an injury. Throwing out a deal for Matt Leinart, who could inherit a QB spot on one of the most potent passing teams in the league, may not be a bad thing.

Another thing to watch is the weekly schedule.

If you see that a certain player has a number of really easy matchups on the horizon, and you can get him cheap enough, it may be worth a shot. One example at the moment is Clinton Portis, who faces the Rams and Lions in weeks two and three, respectively.

Trade Rule No. 9: Evaluate other trades.

Don’t just look at other trades in your league, but go places where people announce their trades and try to get evaluations either before or after the trade. What things seemed to work?

Look for trends that may help you in your own league. I will be evaluating a number of trades throughout the season at www.chinstrapninjas.com—so be sure to keep checking there.

Another resource is the fantasyfootballcafe, which has a thread devoted to trade analysis. Watch not only what trades are offered and which ones seem to work for both sides, but also what others say about the trade.

Trade Rule No. 10: Get trusted feedback on a trade before pulling the trigger.

Again, time is on your side, so take the time to do it right. Identify several people who you respect in fantasy football and ask their advice on certain trades before you complete the deal. Sometimes, it is easy to be blinded by a player bias, and fall into a trap where you are losing more talent in a deal than you’re gaining.

The more people you get feedback from, the better the chances that you’ll get a good feel of whether or not a certain trade is in your best interest.

Once again, feel free to drop me a line at www.chinstrapninjas.com with your trade scenarios. Be sure to include your league's scoring setup, number of teams, etc. Feel free to e-mail me your trade questions questions here, and I’ll share my feedback with you (and if you're OK with it) the rest of the people at www.chinstrapninjas.com as a way for us all to grow as a community and become better traders.

What are your trade suggestions? Disagree with one of my ten trade rules? Have some to add? Some stories to share? Want some feedback on your trade negotiations? Let me know by e-mailing here or visiting www.chinstrapninjas.com

Ninja Know-How: 10 Bold Week Two Predictions You Can Count on

John Zaktansky — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 02:01:54 -0400

Anyone who has written weekly fantasy football forecast columns could tell you that making accurate predictions is as easy as throwing darts in the dark while blindfolded, singing the “YMCA” song (complete with hand motions) and riding a mechanical bull.

So, I was pleased with the results of my first week’s “Ninja Sense,” where I hit on predicting that Clinton Portis would struggle, Ray Rice would outproduce Portis, Earl Bennett would prove his worth in fantasy circles (more on him later), Shaun Hill would give fantasy owners reason for optimism, Mike Bell would shine, all Cleveland Browns players would stink it up and that Steve Slaton would struggle out of the gates.

That’s seven out of 10, or a 70 percent. In the realm of fantasy football prognosticating, that 70 would land me on the distinguished honor roll.

In an effort for a successful encore presentation, here is my Week Two list of things that will happen in fantasy football circles.

Starting to believe that Julius Jones is, at the moment, one of the most under-rated RBs for 2009. Sure his 117 yards and a score came against the Swiss cheese version of an NFL defense (St. Louis), but looking closer at the game, it is obvious now that Jim Mora wasn’t bluffing when he said that Jones would be the featured back in the offense and that the Seahawks would be leaning heavily on the running game this season. Jones now matches up against a 49ers defense that will provide more resistance, but not enough to slow down the JJ train. Here’s predicting another 100-plus yard performance and a TD, especially in light of news that TJ Houshmanzadeh could be hobbled this week. Further, here is my prediction that Julius Jones morphs into this season’s version of Thomas Jones and has a “comeback player of the year” type of season.

Those of you who are growing tired of my endless babbling about Earl Bennett be warned: I’ve made it my personal mission to continue touting the Bears receiver until he’s owned in at least 75 percent of leagues. Bennett’s numbers in week one may have seemed stale, until you look closer. He received 10 looks from Cutler, putting him in the top five of all receivers last week in looks. He had seven receptions and 66 yards, and that was with Cutler reeling off four interceptions and looking lost on the field. Cutler will continue to mature and grow in Chicago, and the Bears face a Steelers defense that let Justin Gage and Kenny Britt look like All-Pro, first ballot Hall of Famers. In any format, Bennett should be on your players to target, and in PPR leagues, he’ll be the sort of player that helps propel teams into the fantasy playoffs.

See the Jets. See the Jets run. See the Jets run and run and run. Thus was the story last week as the Jets backs ran all over the Houston Texans. I may be down on Chris Johnson for the long haul this season, but I’m loving him this week against the Texans. He’ll get plenty of carries, receptions, yards and may even see paydirt if LenDale White stays out of the way.

Matt Forte, a top-five back in most every fantasy draft this summer, ran for just 55 yards last week against a Packers team that has just instituted a new defensive scheme (the 3-4). Jay Cutler’s errant throws didn’t help matters much. This week, it gets even harder for Forte in a matchup against the Super Bowl defending Pittsburgh Steelers. You never sit your studs, but it would be tempting with Forte this week.

Chester Taylor has been a deep sleeper pick for me in 2009 for a while now (as I mention here). He’s in a contract season and I’m not convinced Adrian Peterson can go a whole season without injury. This week against the putrid Lions, the Minnesota coaching staff would be insane to run Adrian Peterson much past halftime in a game that should get out of hand quickly. Enter Taylor, who will be used to grind out the clock and will have plenty of room to run. Going out on a limb, all ninja-like, I expect Taylor to outscore Forte in fantasy points this week.

It worked fairly well last week, so here’s another shout out for Shaun Hill this week. In fact, he should eclipse last week’s totals in a high-stakes NFC-West showdown with Seattle for the early division lead. Neither defense is especially intimidating, and this game could become a shootout fairly quickly. Hill is 8-3 when he starts for the 49ers, and should fair well this week.

Top tight end this week? Dallas Clark, who will see a big boost in looks and receptions as Anthony Gonzalez misses the next two months. This week, the Colts face a Dolphins team that Peyton Manning usually owns. A primetime game and extra opportunities should spell success for the Colts TE.

No-brainer of the week: The Minnesota defensive unit will the fantasy equivalent of King Kong this week. If they are starting on your team, instant advantage you. If you are playing against them, good luck. You’ll need it.

Four catches for 40 yards and a TD is fairly pedestrian for Kansas City receiver Dwayne Bowe, but it was all he could muster last week against Baltimore with Brodie Croyle slinging the pigskin. It remains to be seen if Matt Cassel is back under center this week as the Chiefs take on Oakland. If Cassel does play, expect Bowe to double his yardage, get closer to six or seven grabs and a TD.

I fully expect Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson to rebound after an embarrassing statistical no-show last week. They face the Titans, who were torched by Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes. I’m not expecting Schaub and Johnson to have elite numbers, but they’ll do enough to regain some fantasy respectability.

Find more hard-hitting fantasy feedback at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Don't Be a Fruit Fly: Go Against Grain With These Tips, Win Your League!

John Zaktansky — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 00:32:35 -0400

It only took about five minutes for a cloud of fruit flies to find the cantaloupe rind I had placed on the kitchen counter.

Which got me thinking some very important thoughts.

Such as...where do the fruit flies come from? There wasn’t a single fruit fly in the house one moment, and suddenly a wave of insects became an instant paparazzi and my melon rind an incoherent Brittany Spears.

And...where do the fruit flies go when the fruit is removed? How quickly do they find the next over-ripened banana or half-eaten pear? Is there any insect or animal more obsessive or overzealous as the fruit fly?

And then it dawned on me...the one truth I had been searching for as I prepared to write my Week One recap:

Fantasy football owners are the fruit flies of the sports world.

Want proof?

Joe Flacco threw for 307 yards and three touchdowns in the Ravens’ season-opener last week against Kansas City. Suddenly, like that cantaloupe sitting on my kitchen counter, Flacco was flooded with attention from fantasy owners in leagues of all shapes and sizes. He was picked up in favor of many slow-starting QB options. In one of my leagues, actually, someone dropped Ben Roethlisberger for Flacco. This after Roethlisberger proved his own worth against an otherwise stingy Titans defense last Thursday. Flacco does deserve some attention, but let’s be reasonable here. He still is throwing to a mediocre receiving cast and his huge stats came against the Chiefs’ defense.

Another young QB that many are trying to snag after Week One is Mark Sanchez. Those who were ahead of the curve (like those who read my sleeper QB column a few weeks ago) were able to avoid the Black Friday-esque fight to get Sanchez off the waiver wire. As I mentioned in the column, Sanchez has the “it” factor that will help him excel at the NFL level. Even though his receivers are fairly unknown, they are really reliable, if non-flashy, options.

Cadillac Williams is also a now-hot commodity in fantasy circles after a 97-yard, one-TD performance against Dallas. While he’s the flavor of the week in the Bucs’ backfield, remember that Tampa has a stable of able backs (Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward to name a few) and talk is that the Buccaneers will keep Cadillac around 15 or less carries a game. He’s worth a roster bench spot if you have room, just don’t expect consistent fantasy production from him.

Don’t be just another fruit fly

How are you handling your waivers and team management after week one? Are you going with the masses and trying to snag every player who scored a few fantasy points in hopes that it is the start of a trend? Or, are you going against the grain?

While the rest of the fruit flies buzz to the waiver wire for the flavor of the week pickup, why not throw a few offers at league owners who are panicking after just one week? There are plenty of players who were horrific in week one that you may be able to fish away from someone else in your league. Some players to consider:

Andre Johnson. OK, landing him may take a small act of God, but you may be surprised how many people are looking at the Texans right now and wondering if the sky is falling in Houston. Many forget that the Jets defense was really solid at the end of last season, and made some major strides this offseason to be even more dominant. On the flip side, the Texans next face a Titans defense that allowed the Steelers to light it up through the air. Expect Johnson to bounce back to reality sooner rather than later...and this may be the lowest value he’ll be the rest of the way.

Chris Johnson. Johnson was mediocre at best last Thursday against the Steelers. Plus, I’m not totally sold that Johnson will be a fantasy beast again in 2009. However, his Thursday stats were against the best defense in football, and next he’s playing against a Houston team that allowed the Jets to run amok in Week One. Here’s another Johnson whose value will increase significantly this weekend.

Clinton Portis. See Chris Johnson. A mediocre week one against an incredibly tough defense (as predicted here) followed this Sunday by a cakewalk matchup (against St. Louis). Portis has the added bonus of rushing against the Detroit Lions in week three. Again, like with CJ, I’m not sold on Portis this year for the long haul, but he’s a player who could be the most productive back over the next two weeks of play and will be a hot commodity when dangled before week four to the fruit flies in your respective leagues.

Matt Schaub. Hard to stick up for a guy who killed my chances for a “W” in many leagues last week, but as long as Schaub can stay upright, he’ll be a viable fantasy option. The Titans defense allowed Roethlisberger to look like Dan Marino, and Schaub may use the same matchup to bounce back into the limelight.

Matt Forte. The Bears offense looks like a mess at the moment. Cutler wasn’t exactly a superstar last week against the Packers. However, Forte and company will bounce back. Possibly not this week, against the Steelers run defense, but after Week Two, Forte’s value may be the lowest you’ll see it moving forward.

Michael Turner. A guy I was afraid of going into the season due to his exceptionally high workload last year, Turner still has a lot more to offer than his 65-yard, zero-TD performance last week.

Steve Smith. Three catches and 21 yards is nothing to write home about, but the Eagles defense had Jake Delhomme’s number from the start. Some QB controversy is brewing in Carolina, but no matter who is throwing the ball, Smith’s stats will even out sooner rather than later.

Roddy White. Another WR with many expectations but many disappointments in week one, White is too talented, his QB too talented and his supporting cast too talented for the numbers to continue being in the doghouse.

Want more hard-hitting fantasy advice? Go to www.chinstrapninjas.com

Week 1 Wonders: Must-Add Sleepers to Get Off Waivers Before Gametime

John Zaktansky — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 22:34:18 -0400

I found it in a pile of receipts and paid bills that was leaning ever so slightly against my computer tower in our home office.

It was a coupon for toilet paper. A whole dollar off a pack of Scott bathroom tissue.

I was instantly elated. We didn’t need toilet paper, but I had found a bargain. We, as a human race, can’t pass up a deal, even if it turns out to be a bad one.

Give me a nickel off a pack of gum, and I’ll spend the rest of the day doing random fist-pumps and dancing an Irish jig.

Then I saw the coupon’s expiration date, and wanted to cry. The dollar-off-a-pack-of-TP deal ended 8/31/09.

It was as if someone had sucker-punched me in the gut. It was like I had just lost my best friend.

This Tuesday morning, millions of people will experience a similar feeling. That’s the day that free agents in many fantasy football leagues come off waivers for the first time, and a mad rush of people all try to get the next great thing before owner Wally the Waiver-Wire Nerd makes his move.

Waiver priorities will be burned, emotions will run high and local drugstores will run low on Alka-Seltzer and antidepressants.

But you can avoid all that.

Simply pick up the next big thing BEFORE the games kick off Sunday and waivers lock up. Stash them on your bench and watch the other owners in your league wither in jealousy as your sleeper stash-away becomes the Anquan Boldin of 2009.

But whom to choose? If you read just one of my stories all season, this is the one you should review. Consider snagging the following players on the cusp of fantasy stardom.

1. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals

No sense beating around the bush. Bernard Scott is my sleeper to end all sleepers. He’s the closest thing you’ll find to a "Steve Slaton" this year.

Remember Slaton last year as a rookie? Undrafted in all but the largest of fantasy leagues. Mired just behind an aging and questionable Ahman Green on the Houston depth chart.

Had inspiring pre-season performances. Replaced Green as starter. Suddenly, he became everyone’s fantasy darling and a savior to many a fantasy owner’s season. I drafted him in most of my leagues to jeers from league mates. Advantage me.

Scott follows a similar path this season. He went undrafted in many fantasy leagues. In fact, in Yahoo leagues, he’s owned by just two percent of teams. He’s behind just Cedric Benson on the depth chart.

Yes, that Cedric Benson...the one who deserves a start on your fantasy football roster as much as Rosie O’Donnell deserves her picture on a box of Wheaties.

Bernard Scott’s only detractor is his size (5-11, 220) ... except, remember that Slaton guy (5-9, 201)? He made it work with a much smaller frame.

Some experts rave that Cedric Benson has an opportunity to be a sleeper, sneaky RB start this week against the train wreck of a team in Denver.

However, the pet rock from my first grade art class has a better chance to score legitimate fantasy points.

Scott will be the one who turns heads, and he’ll be a difference maker as the season progresses...regardless of what happens in Week One.

Grab him now. The window of opportunity is shrinking by the moment.

2. Earl Bennett, WR, Bears

No need to go into super detail on Bennett and why I love him this season. Just check out my popular WR sleeper story and my Week One things to expect.

Bennett is owned in 29 percent of Yahoo leagues, up nine percent from when I posted my bold predictions piece yesterday. By Wednesday, I expect him to be owned, easily, in 65 percent or more of all Yahoo leagues. Don’t miss the curve.

3. Mike Bell, RB, Saints

Again, much of my reasoning for grabbing Bell before Sunday’s games is explained here. However, the difference between Bell and the others on my list at the moment is that Bell is a short-term option.

Pierre Thomas should be back next week. The Saints don’t play the Detroit defense every week of the season. Lucky for us fantasy ninjas out there, most run-of-the-mill owners have the fantasy equivalent of ADHD.

They’ll see Bell’s 100 yards and two TDs early next week and trade you their grandmother’s left kidney for him.

If you do snag Bell, make sure you try to capitalize on his statline from Sunday and make a quick move for a player with more long-term upside that may have struggled some in Week One.

4. Deon Butler, WR, Seahawks

By all accounts, Deion Branch will be riding the pine this week. Butler may not be super-big, but he his super-fast, and Hasselbeck and company will utilize Butler to stretch the less-than-scary St. Louis defense.

Yes, it is unlikely that Butler will be a super rookie breakout at receiver. The position is historically a slow-burner for rookies. However, Butler will be a serviceable option off your bench as long as there is room to squeeze him in. More on him here.

5. Brent Celek, TE, Eagles

Have I ever mentioned how incredibly ADHD many fantasy owners are? Celek turned many a head in the post-season last year, is the only viable and healthy tight end on a team known for chucking regularly to a tight end, and is only owned in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues at the moment.

Go snag Celek off your waivers before games start Sunday (and before some random butterfly diverts your attention) and reap the benefit of having some quality TE depth on your team.

At worse, having a second quality TE will allow you to pry your way into a nice early-season trade, dealing your name-brand Tony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark for an improvement at another position and ride Celek to fantasy stardom. More on Celek's sleeper status can be found in our NFC-East preview.

6. Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers

Owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo leagues, Hill is finally in a position to succeed as a starter and will fare well in a game that promises to be a shootout against Arizona. Read more on my Week One man-crush for Shaun Hill here.

Want more hard-hitting advice, tips and feedback? Check out www.chinstrapninjas.com

Ninja Know-How: 10 Bold Week One Predictions You Can Take To the Bank

John Zaktansky — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 02:00:00 -0400

Let me go on record as saying that I totally HATE pregame shows.

Did you see the Black-Eyed Peas’ poor excuse for lip syncing? Did you see the cheesy countdown clock? It was hard to tell if I was waiting for a football game, or getting ready to watch the ball drop on New Years’ Eve.

I wonder if they run that junk to help people better savor the actual start of the game. You can safely turn up the volume on the TV and sink your teeth into some football.

Preseason football is a similar story. It’s all a tease. It’s all just a placeholder, keeping us at bay long enough to drown in our own drool waiting for the actual season to begin. Tomorrow, the wait is officially over. It’s finally safe to turn up the volume, grab a bowl of popcorn and savor the action.

But before we do this, let’s look one last time at some themes, predictions and suggestions before the real day of opening games is upon us. (Also, don't miss out on my fantasy recap of the Steelers-Titans game from Thursday night.)

Ninja sixth sense: 10 things that will happen the rest of Week One.

1. See Clinton Portis run. See Clinton Portis get whacked by the Giants defense. I personally love Portis as a fantasy player. Few can match his reliability as a running back at a position known for inconsistency. However, his statistical nosedive late last year paired with talk that Ladell Betts will see an increased role in the running game leaves a series of red flags for Portis in 2009.

Facing the Giants’ brick wall of a defense won’t help matters. Things will get better against the Rams and Lions in weeks two and three, respectively, but don’t expect huge stats Sunday. For more on Portis an the rest of the NFC-East, click here.

2. Ray Rice has been gaining steam in many season projections this year, and for good reason. He has been named the official starting tailback on a team that loves to run the ball. He matches up against a Kansas City defense that is a work in progress. While he may lose a few touchdowns to Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain, expect Rice to make up for that with Flacco screens and a welcome-to-the-big-time Week One performance. Here’s expecting him to outscore Portis.

3. Still trying to understand how Earl Bennett is owned in just 30 percent of Yahoo leagues. Against a transitioning defensive scheme in Green Bay in a prime time game that screams shootout potential, Bennett will arrive Sunday night in fantasy football leagues. Get him now before waivers close Sunday morning, or you’ll be blowing your waiver priority and be playing a 1-in-12 chance at snagging him Tuesday morning. For more on Earl Bennett and why he's my top WR sleeper for 2009, click here.

4. Really struggling at quarterback? Want a ninja-esque play? How about Shaun Hill, who will get enough action against a suspect Cardinals defense while playing catchup Sunday. Josh Morgan will fair well, too, as he makes his case to hold down the WR1 spot in San Fran regardless of what Crabtree does contract-wise.

5. Pierre Thomas won’t play for the Saints this week, vaulting Mike Bell into the limelight against the woeful Lions defense. Bell will be a solid play in most every format Sunday, and he’s only owned in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues. Even if you don’t need him as an RB2 or flex player, grab him before Sunday’s games and dangle him like a carrot to whoever falls prey to the week one injury curse.

6. One wide receiver that will really shine Sunday will be new Seahawk T.J. Houshmanzadeh. Seattle will be chomping at the bit to unveil its new weapon, Matt Hasselbeck is itching to put last season in the rearview mirror and the Seahawks are matching up against the Rams. If you think the stars are aligned for Housh, also consider that Deion Branch is looking less and less likely to play.

7. There are so many rookie receivers this year that could make some noise, that it is easy to forget about PSU grad Deon Butler, also a Seahawk. For all the reasons listed above for Housh (especially the part where Branch will likely sit), I expect Butler to get some sneaky-good stats.

8. Donnie Avery was hampered by injury this preseason and not expected to be available so quickly. However, he will start Sunday against the Seahawks, who aren’t exactly the Steel Curtain. Avery is the best receiving threat on that offense, and will see targets early and often in a game that promises to be a shootout.

9. If you are starting anyone on the Cleveland Browns, you should reconsider quickly. I’m expecting the Vikings-Browns game to be one of the most lopsided games in recent memory, and not in the Browns’ favor.

10. I’m a huge Texans advocate in fantasy circles this year, including one who expects continued solid play from Steve Slaton. However, I think he may struggle some in week one against the Jets’ vastly improved defense. Slaton was fairly mediocre in preseason play and the Jets matchup will be tough one right out of the gates. I don’t expect him to be horrible in the game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss the 100-yard mark on the ground and manage one TD at best.

For more in depth fantasy feedback, plus a new post later Saturday on guys

you NEED to pick up ASAP from your waiver wires, go to www.chinstrapninjas.com

Ninja Recap: Critical Fantasy Observations From the Steelers-Titans Game

John Zaktansky — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 00:44:04 -0400

For a majority of Thursday night’s season opener between the Steelers and Titans, the game didn’t resemble much of a football contest, but more sumo wrestling match. The teams smacked each other around until both sides were weary. I know I was weary just watching the game.

However, in the middle of this low scoring slugfest, there were several interesting tidbits worth rehashing from a fantasy standpoint. So, with no further introduction, here some trained chinstrap ninja viewpoints on the season-opener.

1. The Steelers running game was surprisingly inept much of last season, but much of that was attributed to injuries to Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker. Both were healthy last night, and the Steelers still couldn’t run the ball.

Parker was pulled in favor of Mewelde Moore, making one wonder if the Steeler backfield will be more a committee approach in 2009 that we’d all like to believe. It was hard to tell whether the lack of running room was due to poor offensive line run blocking or an extra-effective Titans defense. Either way, it is ways too early to start panicking over the Pittsburgh rushing attack from a fantasy standpoint. Easier matchups are coming.

2. Anyone who doesn’t think that fantasy owners are fickle should check out the Yahoo fantasy football page. As of this writing, Rashard Mendenhall was dropped in 7,576 leagues. This after just one game.

Sure Mendenhall wasn’t used a whole lot, but he will produce fantasy worthy numbers this season. If you are lucky enough to be in one of the 7,576 leagues were Mendenhall is going to be available, feel free to pounce and stash Mendenhall away on your bench for a rainy day.

3. Continuing with the Steelers, it is time to start wondering if Santonio Holmes will be considered one of 2009’s big-value wide receivers in fantasy circles when the season wraps up. His stat line (seven catches, 131 yards and a touchdown) from Thursday was exactly the same as his Super Bowl numbers.

If the Steelers continue to struggle on the ground and if Ben Roethlisberger continues to be as effective in the pocket (he had enough time to knit a sweater before each pass), than there is no reason to doubt that Santonio Holmes will be anything less than a solid WR2 in most fantasy formats. Time to bump up the stock a tick or two.

4. Speaking of receivers who impressed, both Kenny Britt and Justin Gage were effective last night, especially after Troy Polamalu left the game due to injury. I was most impressed with Justin Gage, who I was driving the bandwagon for last year but ready to evacuate after a majorly disappointing campaign. However, Thusday night,

Gage flashed his talent and was the go-to receiver many predicted he would be last year. He’s worth an add in your league if still available (he still on waivers in 36 percent of Yahoo leagues), although I’d take a wait-and-see approach to starting him on your roster if you can.

One point to note is that in a few weeks, speedster Nate Washington is scheduled back from injury, and it remains to be seen how that will affect the numbers of both Gage and Britt moving forward.

5. The Steelers wasn’t the only team that struggled in rushing yards, although Chris Johnson did fare better than the Steelers combined in rushing yards (that wasn’t saying much with 78 on the ground).

The Titans will continue to see some tough defenses in the coming weeks, and Johnson may not really perform the way you were hoping until after the first quarter to third of the season. Hang in there if you own Johnson. While I expect him to backslide from his 2008 numbers, I also think he will be a serviceable RB2 with RB1 upside. If you don’t own him, you might be able to get him at a discounted rate in a few weeks.

6. With Troy Polamalu out for three to six weeks, you can almost hear the sigh of relief from opposing quarterbacks for the next month of the season. Expect Jay Cutler’s stock to rise in his squad’s Week Two matchup with the Steelers. Same for Carson Palmer in Week Three and Philip Rivers in Week Four.

7. Heath Miller was an effective stop-gap for Roethlisberger Thursday night … his eight catches was the stat that impressed me the most, and if he continues to see a similar boost in targets this season, he will vault into the top 10 fantasy tight end at one point or another.

Want more hard-hitting ninja feedback on everything fantasy football? Check out www.chinstrapninjas.com !

Five Key Points and Predictions For Each AFC South Team

John Zaktansky — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 19:36:38 -0400

For years, the AFC South was highlighted by one Peyton Manning and the perennially powerful Indianapolis Colts.

This year, there is a chance the Colts don’t even finish in the top half of the division. Sure, part of that is because the Colts may have lost a half-step, but it is more a factor of the improvements to both the Titans and Texans.

Anyone needing a division rich in fantasy potential, the AFC South is the place for you.

Tennessee Titans

1. Totally a gut feeling here—nothing really to back it up with—but I get this feeling that out of last year’s amazing crop of rookie running backs, that Chris Johnson sees the most depreciation this year. I know, it doesn’t make sense. He’s in an offense designed to run with plenty of protection and a defense that allows the Titans to run the ball early and often in time-killing strategy. However, while I don’t usually take stock in preseason action, Johnson was surprisingly stale this summer. He struggled to make it out of the backfield too often for my taste. I know that I’m being unreasonably pessimistic for no reason, but you can’t ignore your gut reaction sometimes in fantasy football.

2. I was all over the Justin Gage bandwagon last year, and was sorely disappointed. Perhaps it’s that sour taste in my mouth that keeps me from getting excited about him this year. Meanwhile, rookie Kenny Britt has been rock solid in preseason action and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Britt has a better statistical season than Gage in 2009.

3. Too bad fantasy scoring doesn’t include points for not making mistakes...than there would some value in drafting Kerry Collins onto your roster. He’s a solid real-life QB that has gone through an amazing roller-coaster journey since his Penn State days, but he has no business seeing the light of day on your fantasy roster.

4. Losing Albert Haynesworth will affect the Titans defense, as will a much more difficult schedule in 2009. People are drafting the Titans defense on name recognition, and for that reason, the squad is going much too early in drafts to make many of my fantasy rosters this year.

5. If you read my fantasy kicker strategy, you know that I have very low expectations for most people’s projected 2009 fantasy kicker darling, Steven Gostkowski. When the dust settles in 2009, I feel that Rob Bironas will be the league’s top scoring kicker—at worse, he’ll be in the top three. Not that you should reach in your draft to take him. See why here.

Houston Texans

1. People who know me realize quickly that the Texans are my team 1B to the Green Bay Packers 1A. One reason is because I see Matt Schaub as a true QB value player in fantasy circles. Many question his injury history, but take out a slew of illegal hits, and Schaub would be considered a top five fantasy QB. The more I watch him, the more I like. Call it a man-crush, but here’s predicting he stays upright enough this season to break the top five in signal calling (behind Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Manning, in that order).

2. Steve Slaton silenced the critics who felt he was too small to make the cut as a featured NFL running back. What helps him is that the offense is balanced enough that he doesn’t see regular stacked defenses and guys keying off just him. Some are concerned about Chris Brown stealing some goal-line carries, but I fear him as much as I fear a blind newborn kitten.

3. It’s easy to daydream about the super-talent that is Andre Johnson, but don’t overlook Kevin Walter in your respective fantasy league. Walter is fantasy gold in TD-heavy leagues and if Schaub stays healthy all season (as I predict), Walter will only improve as a fantasy factor across the board.

4. Want a sneaky-good play at kicker in 2009? Look no further than Kris Brown, who plays for a team that will score often enough to keep him in the red zone, but not so much that his stats are wasted in PAT attempts and not field goals.

5. Owen Daniels is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy tight ends…he just doesn’t get the respect he deserves. Miss out on Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez in your draft? No problem…fill another starting position with a true talent in the third or fourth round and wait until later in your draft for Daniels. He’ll be a solid TE again this year, breaking the top five at the position.

Indianapolis Colts

1. Peyton Manning has been so good for so long, he’s become the vanilla ice cream of the league’s quarterbacks. Of course, that means that while he’s the benchmark and staple of the NFL’s signal callers, he’s a constant with little extra pizazz to get excited about. I’m not bashing Manning here. I’ve been a fan his whole career. He has developed great chemistry with Anthony Gonzalez and while Reggie Wayne is no Bruce Wayne, he still is a force to be reckoned with. Manning will be a top-four QB, but unfortunately, people draft him much too high in most drafts for him to be a true value player.

2. Speaking of Anthony Gonzalez, you should be excited if he’s the top receiver on your bench this year. He will see consistent targets and opportunities to excel in the league this year. If I had to pick one Colts player to be a true value player in 2009, I’d choose Gonzalez, hands down.

3. It’s really hard to predict what will happen with the two-headed monster at running back in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. Addai should be able to bounce back this year, but Brown impressed most this summer and stands to see an increased role in the Colts offense right out of the gate. Because of this, I wouldn’t trust Addai for anything more than an RB No. 3 with upside.

4. Adam Vinatieri is one of the most recognizable kicker names in all of football—just don’t think that translates into fantasy points. Injuries have taken their toll on Vinatieri, and he’s a kicker worth avoiding in most scoring formats.

5. Dallas Clark is a tight end worth considering if the price is right—however, he seldom falls too far past the top three tight end options, and offers much in the way of value in most snake-based drafts. I have seen him go fairly cheaply in auction-based leagues. However, it seems that many times, people panic when they see Gates, Gonzo and Witten go off the board, and they overextend to snag Clark. Wait a few rounds and get an Owen Daniels or wait even longer and choose a true sleeper like Brent Celek.

Jacksonville Jaguars

1. If Owen Daniels is the Rodney Dangerfield of tight ends, a case could be made for David Garrard to be the same in the QB category. Most people don’t realize that he was a top-10 QB in many scoring formats last year. Now he’s added an aged yet talented Torry Holt to his arsenal. Garrard isn’t an every-week starter, but continues to be a great value in most drafting formats.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew has become many a fantasy experts pet project in 2009, and for good reason. MJD has the skills both in running and catching out of the backfield to be a reliable fantasy option in 2009. However, it’s hard for me to coronate him as a top-two back (as many have done) without seeing him carry the rock 30 times a game, 16 games a season.

3. Torry Holt has lost a step in overall speed, but he knows how to position himself to make the catch time and time again. He isn’t a guy you want to rely on as a fantasy starter in 2009, but as a bye-week fill-in, depending on the matchup, you could do much worse than Holt.

4. I’ll give you two sugar cookies and a vanilla wafer if you can name the starting tight end for the Jaguars? If you said Mercedes Lewis, you may be wrong. The Jags recently picked up Dolphins roster cut Earnest Wilford, and plan to use him… e couldn’t possibly drop as many passes as Lewis did last year, right? Either way, there is no immediate value in drafting a Jaguar kicker in fantasy circles.

5. A rookie to watch closely this year is RB Rashad Jennings. After trimming their roster this summer, the Jags are down to basically MJD and Jennings at the position (Greg Jones is still around, but won’t be a fantasy factor). MJD has yet to shoulder the load for a full season, and I fully expect Jennings to be a part of the offensive plan from week one.

Check out our other team predictions, division-by-division, along with plenty of other in-depth analysis and projections at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Five Key Fantasy Points and Predictions for Each NFC North Team

John Zaktansky — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 22:43:11 -0400

Don’t look now, but the NFC North has become a league filled with offensive powerhouses in 2009. The division used to be highlighted by tough defenses and grind-it-out time-control offensive philosophies, but not this year.

The extra firepower will help any fantasy team wise enough to tap into the potential. Team-by-team previews and predictions include:

Green Bay Packers

1. Well before the preseason offensive fireworks display, I was a big advocate of Aaron Rodgers in 2009. The running game is not the center of the offense—the passing game is. Rodgers has the weapons and will be in enough shootouts to finish the season in elite fantasy company: as a top-three QB with Brees and Brady.

2. Ryan Grant is one of those running backs this year that allows fantasy owners to take risks in drafts. Taking stud receivers or a top QB in the first two rounds? Grant provides a nice RB insurance option this year. He started last season slowly, hampered by injuries. By the end of the season, he was a solid RB2, with RB1 performances. He starts this season off injury-free and should be a nice low-profile RB sparkplug.

3. Want a true team sleeper? Look no further than Jermichael Finley. The tight end tore it up all preseason for the Packers, and while the current plan is to use Finley and Donald Lee in a 50-50 split, I fully expect Finley to become one of Rodgers’ go-to red zone targets and be a viable starting TE in most fantasy formats by the end of the season.

4. Some are looking at the Packers’ defensive unit to be a fantasy sleeper this season, but I have my doubts. While the Packers should thrive in the 3-4 scheme that Dom Capers is instituting, it will take time for the squad to adjust to the nuances of the switch. The Packers have a great mix of veteran talent and youth potential, but they are no better than a D/ST plan B and bye-week fill-in depending on matchup.

5. There is no doubt that Greg Jennings has become the primary target in this offense over an aging yet effective Donald Driver and numerous young talents. Jennings is primed for a career season, especially in PPR formats.

Minnesota Vikings

1. Anyone who thinks Brett Favre is going to wither and die as a fantasy option this year is totally out of touch with reality. When healthy last year, Favre led a fairly uninspired and under-performing group of Jets to an impressive 8-3 record. If he’s healthy, and indicators say he is, Favre should thrive in an offense where he doesn’t need to win games by himself. In 2007 with the Packers, Favre learned the value in throwing short passes and allowing the receivers room to work. His INTs dropped and TDs and overall yardage soared. While he won’t replicate his 2007 numbers, he will be a fantasy starter at times this season.

2. As someone totally unnerved by Percy Harvin’s track record for knuckleheadedness, I’ve grown to expect a decent rookie campaign in 2009. The Vikings seem committed to using Harvin in as many ways as possible, and having Favre around will help him both on and off the field. While it may not seem a stretch (considering Michael Crabtree self- destructing his NFL rookie season), Harvin could finish the season as the best rookie WR of this year’s crop.

3. I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t expect Adrian Peterson to last all 16 regular-season games. He’s a hard-core running back that pounds the holes and drags tacklers with him, but that beating will also take its toll. You heard it here first: Peterson will not be the top-scoring fantasy running back in 2009.

4. With that being said, I expect Chester Taylor to be a sneaky RB sleeper this season. He has the skill set to excel as a 16-week starter for most any team, and he’s also in a contract year. He has something to prove, and when Peterson gives him the opportunity, Taylor will be a viable RB1 in most fantasy formats.

5. I have great respect for ep’s viewpoints on matchups, but I totally disagree when it comes to defensive units. I’ve had too much success taking mediocre defenses who play horrific offenses and raked on the matchups and ensuing fantasy points. That being said, I totally expect the Vikings D/ST to be the highest scoring unit in fantasy football through the first third of the season. Matchups against Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, St. Louis and Baltimore in five of the first six weeks is pure fantasy gold.

Chicago Bears

1. There’s a wide spectrum of viewpoints on the Bears receiving unit this year. Mark my words: Earl Bennett will be the player standing when the dust settles in Bearsland. His connection with Jay Cutler goes back to a successful pairing at Vanderbilt, and it helps that Devin Hester is better suited as a trick, special teams sort of player. Bennett will be targeted early and often in the offense, and will not only lead the Bears in receptions, but will be near the top of the NFC-North in catches behind guys like Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson.

2. Many feel that Matt Forte will experience some sort of sophomore slump in 2009, but it’s hard to drink that Kool-Aid. Jay Cutler will force defenses to play honest, opening holes for Forte and keeping the back upright more often than not. The Bears are a run-first, grind-it-out offense, and that won’t change even with Cutler under center.

3. Jay Cutler highlights one of the biggest offseason trades in recent memory, and his presence will help the Bears offensive skill players. While he seems to be finding chemistry with his receivers and talented TE Greg Olson, it is hard to get excited about Cutler’s fantasy stock until he proves that he wasn’t a product of the Broncos’ situation.

4. Tight end Greg Olsen is a great asset to anyone drafting a fantasy team. With Cutler in town, Olsen is primed to take a leap in the position’s rankings, and allows people to avoid the early TE drafting trap of Witten, Gonzo and Gates.

5. The Bears D/ST is not what it once was. Sure, many of the playmakers, like Brian Urlacher, are still there. However, the unit is aging fast and finds itself in a division that suddenly is much improved offensively. In the past, the Bears were a lock as a top-five fantasy defense year in and year out. This year, I’d much rather take a chance a defense with upside than pay the inflated price that many place on the Bears based on name value alone.

Detroit Lions

1. Not sure why, but the announcement that Matthew Stafford will start week one over Daunte Culpepper surprised me. All preseason, Stafford seemed less polished than rookie QB counterpart Mark Sanchez, and while the Lions will not make the playoffs in 2009, Culpepper still provided them the best chance to get a few W’s on the board coming off the league’s first-ever winless campaign. I keep thinking Stafford will struggle on a team that should be better across the board in 2009.

2. There were several very impressive rookie running backs last season, but it surprises me that Kevin Smith continues to get so little love in fantasy circles. He gets it done both on the ground and through the air, and will be a safety valve for Stafford early and often. He is another RB, like Ryan Grant, who allows non-conventional fantasy drafters in 2009 to go WR-WR or QB-WR in the first two rounds and still save face at RB.

3. Calvin Johnson is a beast, no matter who’s throwing him the ball. He has too much talent to not succeed, regardless of whether Culpepper or Stafford are under center. Last year, Johnson continued to shine even with Dan Orlovski chucking him the ball and defenses keying off him like teens at a Hannah Montana concert.

4. I really liked the Lions’ selection of Brandon Pettigrew in the rookie draft this year, and Pettigrew will be a tight end to watch in fantasy circles—however, not until 2010. He has talent and the Lions are starting to develop weapons in the offense, but Pettigrew will be option three for a rookie QB who continues to under-impress me.

5. Not that I need to tell you, but don’t bother drafting the Lions defense this year. While they will see improvement over last year’s squad, the NFC-North saw a major influx of offensive firepower this offseason, and the Lions will struggle to keep up.

Want more division-by-division and team-by-team previews? You got it at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Dissecting Fantasy Auction Leads To Valuable Drafting Tips

John Zaktansky — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 00:47:53 -0400

Everything I ever need to know I learned in high school biology class.

I’m not talking about the details of photosynthesis or how the mighty mitochondria functions in a cell. It's not anything about the symbiosis between living organisms or how deer ticks successfully transmit Lyme Disease.

No, the lesson I found most valuable from the days of AP Biology was a simple mantra for tackling some of life’s great mysteries:

If you want to know more about something, dissect it.

It worked with frogs, lab mice, and even a roadkill coyote my teacher brought in for us to slice apart. Sure, you can learn anatomy and physiology from a textbook and worksheets, but the only way to really understand how something works is to take it apart and, if you can, put it back together.

Fantasy football is no different, and to really stay one step ahead of the competition, it helps to dissect everything from draft results, roster moves, free agent pickups and trade proposals. You can learn about fantasy sports from a magazine or newspaper article, but you’ll never really understand it without doing the real thing and then dissecting it.

Take, for example, the Daily Item fantasy football league. Consisting of league managers from all sorts of backgrounds, professions, and experience levels, the league is made of people who live in the coverage area of The Daily Item newspaper. Each summer, we hold a live auction draft to kick off the new season using a $200 salary cap.

Auction-style drafting is becoming more and more popular, and for good reason. The strategies can be complex and endless. The format encourages people to interact more at a draft and get to know each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Everyone has an equal shot at drafting any player. Plus, another cool aspect is that auction fantasy football drafts are like snowflakes...no two are the same.

With owners ranging in age from nine to the mid-50s, and with varying levels of fantasy sports experience, the Daily Item league draft was an interesting experiment in auction mentality.

As a way to better understand the chaotic science of auction drafting, let me take a few moments to dissect this draft (with 12 teams) on a team-by-team, and strategy-by-strategy basis (I won’t cover every team, but will discuss some of the main strategy elements).

Seth:

The epitome of hard-line auction drafting, Seth went into the draft with a short list of specific players he wanted and wasn’t swayed when the bidding got hot and heavy. He honed in on Frank Gore, and didn’t back down until he bought the San Franscisco RB for $45.

He then pounced on Brian Westbrook and bid like a pitbull bites, not letting go until he got what he wanted...in this case, for $40. Considering that Brandon Jacobs went to a different team for $46 and many of the other higher-end RBs went in the high-40s to low-50s in price, the Gore-Westbrook combo wasn’t a bad buy.

Seth used similar determination in landing Peyton Manning for $37, and wasn’t swayed when Tony Gonzalez’s value kept climbing past the $20 plateau. In fact, Seth stiff-armed the Gonzo competition with a quick, unexpected $40 bid that left many in the room scoffing. When you take a hard-line approach to an auction draft, you run the risk of other owners purposely running up the values of certain players that they know you really want.

Regardless, Seth walked away with a really solid starting roster with just one concerning area moving forward: his receivers and bench depth are all dollar-basement investments. By carefully watching the waiver wire for emerging WR talent, and if his starters can avoid injuries, Seth could be a season-long contender.

Jason:

Focused on running backs and RB depth (the league starts two RB, no flex), Jason developed his team around a nucleus of three strong halfbacks in Michael Turner ($57), Clinton Portis ($35), and Kevin Smith ($28).

Of course, that depth and peace-of-mind at RB came at a cost, literally, leaving Jason just $80 to fill out the rest of his roster. He invested $36 in his starting QB (Aaron Rodgers), which turned out to be about the going value for a player of Rodgers’ talent level...although the next tier of QB mostly went in the mid-20s.

Needing value WRs to fill out the starting roster, Jason went with DeSean Jackson ($13) and Lee Evans ($11). An $8 investment in Owen Daniels left Jason with a competitive team that is a breakout WR short of being a possible title contender.

Jake:

Looking at investing heavily in his fantasy starting corps at RB and WR, Jake landed a value in Maurice-Jones Drew at $51 (Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson went for $61 and $60, respectively).

He followed with Reggie Wayne at $40, Ronnie Brown at $29 and Dwayne Bowe at $26.

What hurt Jake’s team somewhat was that he was helping run the auction spreadsheet and got into the bidding action late in the draft.

While there was an incentive for those who finished with the most leftover salary cap money (waiver order was based on leftover cash), Jake was in a position where solid QB options were few and far between. He left the draft with dollar QBs Kyle Orton and Jason Campbell, but also left $26 on the table. While that was good enough for top waiver priority heading into the season, it also left him questionable at QB.

Jeff:

Employing a "shotgun" approach to the auction draft, Jeff peppered bids throughout the afternoon, developing a roster filled with balance, but also lacking knock-out power players. His most expensive player was Marques Colston ($30), followed by $23 for Kurt Warner, $22 for Derrick Ward, $20 for Antonio Gates, $17 each for Marshawn Lynch and TJ Houshmanzadeh, $15 for Beanie Wells, $13 for Vincent Jackson, and $11 for Knowshon Moreno.

Jeff got some good deals and has an incredibly balanced and deep roster. On the flip side, deciding weekly matchups could be quite stressful with so many players around the same talent level.

Also, he could struggle during non-bye weeks against rosters with less depth, but a higher-priced group of starting players. Of course, drafting a team filled with good bargain players could make Jeff a go-to target for league owners who are hoping to wheel-and-deal.

Rick:

One team that Jeff may struggle to match up with during non-bye weeks is Rick’s. Focused on developing the strongest starting nucleus possible, Rick was the only owner to pounce on three $40 players in Steve Slaton ($49), Drew Brees ($41) and LaDanian Tomlinson ($40).

He filled out his primary starters with Wes Welker and Chad Ochocinco (both at $18). At $21, Joseph Addai provides some insurance for an aging Tomlison and a $6 investment in Jay Cutler as a backup QB was a great value. At this point, Rick was forced to fill out the roster with dollar players, which could possibly leave him susceptible during bye weeks and depending on possible injuries.

John:

My team fell into a rut I’m familiar with at auction drafts.

My strategy is always to wait in drafts with the hopes that owners will break their accounts early and good value players will fall between the cracks; however, I always get burned on a player early in my drafting, and this time it was Matt Schaub, who I love as a sleeper this year, but found myself stuck in a bidding binge that left me with a $25 Schaub when other similar upside QBs went for less (Kurt Warner for $23, Matt Ryan for $20).

This bidding war left me gunshy for the next several rounds of bidding, and I found myself in too many bidding wars with other owners who procrastinated in the draft and were scrambling for starters.

In spite of this, I was happy with snagging Calvin Johnson ($39), Roddy White ($28), and Jason Witten ($18) at what I felt were really good values. Of course, this left me a decent amount of money, but no real backs to stake my claim to (Steve Slaton was still on the table, and I wimped out when Slaton went for $49...in hindsight, I should have went for it).

I wound up spending $58 total on Ray Rice, Willie Parker, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Bernard Scott, and LeRon McClain (who I since dropped for Willis McGahee). That total would have been much less if someone hadn’t been bidding me up on Mendenhall, knowing I needed him to handcuff to Willie Parker (I wound up blowing $19 on Rashard), but still left $11 on the table.

Combining that total with the $28 I blew on Parker-Mendenhall, I could have gotten someone with more upside as an RB1 (like Clinton Portis, Pierre Thomas, Marion Barber, etc.).

So, let’s recap the lessons learned from this fantasy league dissection...

1. Go into your auction draft with a plan.

It’s OK to target certain guys that you feel will have a big season, and it’s OK to overpay somewhat on them if you feel you can create the best possible starting lineup. Just be careful not to tip your hand too much since there are guys in every league that would love to watch you overspend on "your guy."

2. There’s a fine line between drafting a killer starting unit while neglecting your bench and drafting a team with super depth, but lukewarm starters.

Pinpoint certain players you feel will be good value players and target them to represent your depth (guys like rookies i.e. Moreno ($11), Wells ($15), or Percy Harvin ($8), up-and-coming players—like Ray Rice ($15), and guys in improved situations—Trent Edwards ($10)).

3. Players taken earlier in the draft (and I’ve seen this in most every auction draft I’ve played in) seem to go cheaper than those left until late.

Seems that more people than you’d imagine are procrasting drafters, while owners who take risks early get some good bargains. For example, Greg Jennings was one of the first players bid on, and went for $33. That’s just a hair more than Marques Colston ($30) and Dwayne Bowe ($26), who are lightyears behind Jennings on my rankings chart.

4. Have a list of players at every position who have good upside, but should go for $5 or less.

If you do fall into a trap and spend more than you were hoping for at some point or another, this will give you solid fallback options. In the Daily Item league, players such as Kevin Walter, Lance Moore, Hakeem Nicks, Donnie Avery, Fred Taylor, Bernard Scott, Brett Favre, Earl Bennett, John Carlson, Zach Miller and Brent Celek all went for $5 or less and each could perform at a really good value.

5. Don’t plan on wasting any more than a dollar or two on your kicker or defense.

Steven Gostkowski went for $3, and most kickers went for a buck. Defenses went for a little more (by a dollar or two), but there are plenty of viable options at defense that weren’t even drafted.

What are your auction draft tips? Did you draft recently and want your team/league dissected? Drop us a line and find more hard-hitting ninja action at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Ninja Prediction: Pick Up These Sleeper Wide Receivers in 2009

John Zaktansky — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 00:05:31 -0400

Anyone who has drafted already can tell you that the middle-to-late-round wide receivers are as appealing as being a high school janitor during the peak of flu season.

No one in their right mind can, and should, feel good about starting Laveranues Coles or Deion Branch as their No. 2 wide receiver—or even to rely on them for spot starts off the bench.

Yet there are some pass-catchers who always seem to fall between the cracks at many drafts. These are guys you can nab late who could produce some big numbers at a critical point for you this season.

Here are the two I’m targeting the most this summer.

Receiver sleepers

My name is Earl. As in Earl Bennett.

Perhaps not a sleeper to some, thanks to some growing hype around this Chicago receiver, but Bennett is primed to be a fantasy force this season at a fraction of the cost of similar talents.

He was a non-factor last year in his rookie campaign for the Bears, but this season he is paired with longtime Vanderbilt teammate Jay Cutler. This summer, Cutler has targeted Bennett a number of times, and Earl has responded by catching everything that comes his direction.

News today on rotoworld.com is that Bennett has officially landed a starting gig across from Devin Hester—and Bennett is much more of a prototypical receiver than Hester.

Yes, the Bears have a talented tight end in Greg Olsen who will benefit from Cutler under center. Yes, Hester is lightning-quick.

However, I bet you dollars to doughnuts that Bennett leads the Bears in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns this year. I’d also place a nice-sized wager that Bennett will be starting at No. 2 wide receiver at some point this season in every league you participate in.

Make sure that the team that starts him is yours by grabbing Bennett late in each of your drafts.

Miss out on Bennett? Why not take the player whose stock has arguably fallen the most between the NFL rookie draft and now?

That would be Michael Crabtree. In one of the biggest bonehead moves in recent sports memory, Crabtree continues to hold out for a contract he doesn’t deserve. His intellectually challenged cousin even spread rumors that Crabtree is willing to sit out all season and re-enter the draft in 2010.

Don’t believe that line of poo for one minute.

It’s amazing how short-sighted some fantasy owners can be this time of year. The season is long. Crabtree will sign at some point.

He may not be playing in Week One. In fact, there’s a good chance he won’t start a game by the 49ers’ Week Six bye. However, here’s betting that Crabtree plays no later than San Fran’s Oct. 25 game against Houston.

The 49ers then play against a bunch of questionable secondaries down the stretch this season—including Seattle, Arizona, Detroit, and St. Louis within the last five weeks of the season.

Crabtree has too much talent not to produce some impressive statistical totals this year. In fact, I expect Crabtree to be a major factor for many in this year’s fantasy playoffs.

Player to Watch

Rumor has it that New York Jets receiver David Clowney has leapfrogged Chansi Stuckey for the opportunity to start opposite Jerricho Cotchery.

Clowney has really impressed this summer, and only four other receivers in the league have more preseason yards to their name.

Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez will have his growing pains at times this season, but he will prove adept enough for you to take a flyer on Clowney at the end of your draft if you have the extra roster space.

Check out more ninja-rific predictions at www.chinstrapninjas.com.

Bold Prediction: QB Who Will Take 2009 Fantasy Scene by Storm

John Zaktansky — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 23:54:33 -0400

I could take time to drool all over my 2009 QB love affair with Matt Schaub. I could call him a sleeper, but let’s face it…he isn’t.

It seems that everyone is targeting him in the middle of their respective drafts.

A true sleeper is a player that comes out of no where to become a fantasy beast. Anquan Boldin could tell you all about being a sleeper. He’s the Rip Van Winkle of fantasy sleepers.

So, it is time to step up and take a stand. It is time to represent chinstrap ninjas (www.chinstrapninjas.com) everywhere by treading where others fear. It is time to throw down and make projections and not look back.

Remember a certain six-foot-something QB who was drafted in the top five overall? Remember said QB, who many felt wouldn’t be more than a bench-warming, clipboard-holding backup for at least the first half of the season.

You know, that QB who was drafted by a team with a steadily improving defense, a solid running game in transition and a receiving corps that was fairly untested and unknown in the grand scheme of things.

No, not Mark Sanchez (I’ll get to him in a minute). I’m talking about Matt Ryan. Remember what the fantasy magazines had to say about Ryan last year? You don’t? That’s because they had little to offer. Many projections had Ryan producing behind fellow rookie signal callers such as Joe Flacco.

An archive search of the message board at www.fantasyfootballcafe.com turned up several rankings where Ryan was slated well below a bunch of quarterbacks (such as JaMarcus Russell and Troy Smith) who majorly underperformed.

So when people write off New York’s Mark Sanchez with similar quickness, I hesitate. The USC product was stellar as a Trojan, finishing his college campaign with 413 yards passing and MVP honors in the Rose Bowl—the yardage was the most for a USC quarterback since now-Bengals QB Carson Palmer threw for 425 against Notre Dame in 2002.

Like Matt Ryan did last summer, Sanchez has been impressive in preseason practices and games. There is little doubt that as long as Sanchez continues to mature as a QB over the next couple weeks, he’ll be starting the season atop the Jets depth chart.

Sanchez has an adequate arm and plenty of QB smarts to make a successful jump to the NFL level. However, what has impressed me so much this summer is his swagger. His mojo.

Tons of rookie quarterbacks with vast potential, skill sets and football know-how have crashed and burned at the NFL level. What most of them lacked, however, was the leadership and confidence that Sanchez has exhibited from day one as a Jet.

Sure, the Jets receivers aren’t exactly star-studded—however, the Falcons had a somewhat similar cast of unknowns when Ryan took the reigns last year. Roddy White had plenty of potential, but no consistency or big-stat contests until Ryan started feeding him the pigskin.

The Jets receivers may not be well known, but they don’t lack in talent. In college, Jerricho Cotchery broke numerous receiving records—including several set by Torry Holt—and is still one of just two pass-catchers in the ACC with both 200 receptions and 3,000 yards.

David Clowney is the epitome of unknown potential in the NFL, but did you notice his three-catch, 102-yard (with a TD) performance last week in preseason action? What about uber-talented tight end Dustin Keller—who was drafted in the first round last season by the Jets?

What about the Jets aggressiveness in going after big-name receiving talent such as Boldin, Plaxico Burress and now Brandon Marshall? It is only a matter of time before the Jets make an acquisition that makes Sanchez’s receiving options that much sexier.

With a much-improved defense behind him and a solid mix of veteran and rookie talent at RB (Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, and Leon Washington), Sanchez doesn’t need to carry the Jets on his back. He can make the throws he needs to and mature as QB much like Ryan did last year.

While I wouldn’t count on him as more than a QB2 with major upside this year in redraft leagues, he’s a hot commodity in dynasty and keeper leagues, and rightfully so. I predict that he’ll outperform fellow rookie Matthew Stafford, along with a number of NFL starters this year.

In fact, I feel that Sanchez will be the starter on a number of fantasy football teams by the end of this season and could crack the top 15 fantasy QBs in overall scoring.

Also, after years of trying to find a franchise QB to rightfully succeed the legend known as Joe Namath, I feel the Jets have finally found their answer.

Who is your true QB sleeper for 2009? Let me know at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Everything You'll Ever Need to Know About Fantasy Kickers

John Zaktansky — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 01:26:26 -0400

Ever venture into the woods on the first day of regular deer season in central Pennsylvania? Falling in late fall/early winter the weather is usually cool to cold. Colorful leaves are mostly off the trees and laying as a carpet on the forest floor. Many times, the surroundings are fairly drab in browns and grays, and sometimes a little white.

So, a hunter wearing head-to-toe fluorescent orange can really be a jarring sight. You can literally see a hunter for miles away in some areas. They’re hard to miss.

So are rookie owners in your respective fantasy football leagues. They are the ones who actually care about fantasy kicker rankings.

In fact, rookie fantasy owners are actually cute in a way. They actually worry over which kicker to select. They debate on when they will take their kicker. They are the ones whose fantasy football magazines are dog-eared on the kicker ranking page. It’s hard not to laugh at the whole scene.

That’s because picking a kicker at your respective fantasy football draft is as easy as picking which pair of tighty-whiteys to wear each morning.

The strategy is simple:

1. Pick about five kickers who aren’t ranked in the top five in your respective fantasy magazines. These guys should be on teams with solid defenses. More on that on a moment.

2. Wait until the last round of your draft. Not the next-to-last. Not the middle of your draft. The very last round.

3. Pick someone on your list. Anyone who’s still available.

Easy, wasn’t it?

Oh...and don’t forget the step where you mock and laugh at the guy who wastes an eighth-round pick on Stephen Gostkowski.

I find it funny, actually, that alleged fantasy gurus deliberate so much over kicker rankings, and then basically rank last year’s top scorer as this year’s top option.

Pop quiz: who was the last NFL kicker to lead the league in fantasy scoring two years in a row? I know I can’t think of one.

The top fantasy-scoring kicker in 2007 was Green Bay’s Mason Crosby. Last year, he finished seventh—21 points behind Gostkowski. Of course, 21 points isn’t a whole lot when averaged out over a whole season. That’s what makes kickers such a crap shoot, and not worth more than a second’s thought.

Last year, Gostkowski lead the league with 159 fantasy points (in standard scoring leagues). Ryan Lindell finished 10th, with 136 points. That’s a difference of 23 points, but just 1.6 points per game for the first 14 weeks of the season.

After Gostkowski and Akers (the No. 2 fantasy-scoring kicker last year), the next eight were separated by just nine points, or a .06 point-per-game difference.

It wasn’t just a one-year fad, either. In 2007, Phil Dawson ranked 10th with 132 fantasy points, while Crosby scored 156—a difference of 24 points, or 1.7 points per game.

Figuring out which kickers to target doesn’t take rocket science.

First, contrary to popular belief, you don’t want a kicker from a really prolific offense. Sure, in 2007 when the Patriots were an offensive juggernaut, Gostkowsi killed the competition with 74 PATs. However, Crosby (who tallied 26 less PAT that season) outscored Gostkowski by 16 fantasy points.

That’s why I personally feel that Gostkowski will be a relative “flop” among fantasy kickers. With Tom Brady back for the Patriots, expect Gostkowski’s FG opportunities to morph into PAT chip shots.

So, which kickers should you target in the last round of your respective draft?

I look for kickers from teams who have solid defenses. You don’t want your kicker’s team to be blown out week after week, abandoning the kicking game in an aerial attempt to keep up.

I also want kickers from teams with offenses that are good enough to get into the red zone consistently, but not good enough to punch the ball into the end zone time and time again.

For this season, that leaves a slew of kickers who I think will score up there with the rest of the league. Guys I’m personally considering at the end of drafts include:

Lawrence Tynes, NYG. The Giants follow my formula: solid defense and an offense behind Eli Manning, and some fresh WR faces that will be good enough to move the chains, but may not score a ton of touchdowns. Tynes could easily be the best kicker in fantasy football this season, as long as he stays healthy.

Kris Brown, HOU. Sure, the Texans could have a huge offensive year, but I also expect them to be in enough tight games with teams such as the Titans, Colts, etc. to keep Brown active from field goal range. He’s improved his kicking totals consistently the last three seasons, and his defense will keep the Texans in games each week.

Rob Bironas, TEN. Sure, Bironas hardly qualifies as a kicking sleeper, but people can forget about him on an offense that features a 100-year-old Kerry Collins. However, he’s in the perfect position to produce well for yet another season.

Jay Feely, NYJ. Want a super-kicking-sleeper? Try Feely. The Jets' defense will be solid this year—the offense, not so much.

I’m gambling that the Jets' running game, and a few impressive heaves from Mark Sanchez, will keep Feely active in the field goal department.

The Jets play in an improving division, and will be in a number of close games where Feely’s leg will be used strategically.

Nick Folk, DAL. The Cowboys' kicker didn’t finish in the top 10 in kicking fantasy points last year. However, the Cowboys follow my formula, having enough of a defense to keep games fairly close, and just enough offense (sans Terrell Owens) to give Folk scoring opportunities.

Who are your kickers to watch? How much time do you spend thinking about fantasy kickers at a draft?

For more fantasy advice, get in touch with your inner ninja at: www.chinstrapninjas.com

Campfires 101: Six Steps To Building the Perfect Fire

John Zaktansky — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 00:58:03 -0400

Building a fire is so easy, even a caveman can do it.

So being in charge of the bonfire at our son’s 19th birthday party earlier this summer seemed a simple enough responsibility.

Until someone was kind enough to remind everyone that the bonfire would be built by a bona fide Eagle Scout. Suddenly, my every move was put under a microscope—from the amount of kindling I gathered to the number of matches I’d need to start the fire.

People were grabbing sticks, hot dogs, and marshmallows as quickly as I wanted to grab some Rolaids.

Of course, the worry was all for nothing. The fire roared to life and the party was a success.

Many are making plans for similar gatherings around the Labor Day holiday and late-summer family camping trips. There is nothing more gratifying than cooking your food over an open fire, and as long as you prepare accordingly, there is no reason to stress about the process of using one of nature’s simplest elements to cook your meals.

Scouts are taught that there are many different ways to build a fire. A log cabin format consists of logs stacked in alternating layers like the frame of a log cabin. This setup is used typically for campfires where hot coals are needed for cooking.

A teepee fire is built by leaning numerous longer logs together in the shape of a teepee. These fires are common for bonfires or rescue fires where quick burning, lots of light and moderate heat are needed.

I’ve learned that a hybrid of these two fire-building methods can produce the most consistent overall results. You’ll need to make sure that your wood is as dry as possible (especially the kindling and smaller pieces).

It is also a wise idea to build your fire inside a fire ring of some sort.

Most campsites—even more primitive ones—provide a fire ring (some are built from old wheel rims, others from a circular pile of rocks). If you need to build your own, and plan to use rocks to line the outer limits of your fire, be sure to avoid sandstone—which is known to hold in extra moisture and can actually explode when heated quickly by a fire.

Once you have a fire ring in place, follow these steps to a successful fire-building experience:

1. Start with the log cabin component by layering your larger logs in alternating layers on the outermost parts of your fire ring. Be sure to leave a large gap in the middle of your cabin structure. Dry wood is optimal here, but usually slightly damper wood will still work as long as your inner teepee fire produces enough heat to dry the outer cabin shell.

2. Inside your log cabin structure, start by balling up some newspaper or other fire-starting material (dryer lint, dry and flaky bark off trees or other forms of paper will work here, but newspaper seems to be the best). Be sure to let a piece of the newspaper ball poke through your log cabin structure so you have easier access later for lighting.

On top of the starting material, stack balled-up or broken pieces of squaw wood. Squaw wood is the extremely small end branches found on the bottom of most pine and hemlock trees. Even if there is a large downpour of rain, squaw wood typically stays dry and is a fire-building staple.

With the squaw wood (or in place of it if necessary), throw in pieces of small, dry sticks (no thicker than a pencil), dry bark and other wood pieces that will hold some heat.

Avoid using pine needles and leaves during the fire-building process since these usually burn out too quickly and don’t produce enough heat to light the next layer of your fire.

3. Use larger sticks (again, dry pieces are important) that are approximately pencil-width or larger to build a small teepee over the kindling and starter material from step two. Avoid using anything too wide for this part of the fire (anything wider than a quarter should be used in the outer log cabin structure in most cases).

For larger fires, it is fine to use larger logs for the teepee portion of your fire, just be sure to plan accordingly with a larger kindling pile below.

4. Once everything from the previous steps are in place, it is finally time to light the fire. One of the quickest ways to ruin your fire-building process is to get impatient and start lighting the fire before you are really ready. Much like knocking over dominoes before everything is in place, lighting a fire early will set you back to ground zero.

Light the newspaper ball that you left sticking outside of your log cabin structure. Be sure that heavy winds or other unfavorable conditions don’t snuff out your fire before it really gets going.

The flames should catch the starter material and kindling fairly quickly, and then begin burning your teepee structure. Lastly, the insides of your log cabin pieces will start to char and catch on fire.

5. As the center of your fire burns down and the larger logs on the outside of the fire begin to catch, you can slide your log cabin pieces more to the center. This helps lower the overall burning time and will lead to your hottest coals piling up in the middle of the ring.

6. For best results when cooking over fire, be sure you wait until the logs are fully engulfed and burn down to red coals. Cooking over flames may work at times for marshmallows and sometimes for hot dogs, but the best cooking surface is over white and red ashes and coals.

You can use a metal rack (making the cooking similar to grilling over a charcoal grill), sticks or spits for roasting quicker foods such as hot dogs or seal food in foil and cook it directly in the coals.

Ticks: So Little, So Dangerous

John Zaktansky — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 22:39:06 -0400

Late last summer, Duane Knopp was suffering from the flu.

At least, that's what it seemed like at first.

However, the achiness, fevers, and nausea didn't go away with normal over-the-counter medication. Within a few days, he was suffering from severe headaches that caused unbearable pain on one side of his head. Tylenol, Advil, and other pain relievers didn't help.

Normally very active, Knopp was weak and unable to eat. He lost 20 pounds in one week at one point during the illness. He was off work and bedridden. Even his young children were afraid to play with him for fear that they'd hurt him more.

Throughout the ordeal, Duane and his wife, Sandy, who live in central Pennsylvania, made numerous trips to local emergency rooms and doctor offices. Over and over, they were told it was a viral condition and would clear up on its own.

"We had to be very persistent with the emergency rooms and doctors," Sandy said. "They acted as if this was a typical flu, but I live with him every day. I knew it was something more. I had that gut feeling that something was really wrong."

Finally, the persistence paid off, and the Knopp family received some answers. Duane was suffering from Lyme disease. He got the illness from the bite of a small tick, no bigger than the tip of a pencil.

However, the recovery was far from over. After months of treatment, including four weeks of medication fed daily into a tube that ran through one of his veins directly into his heart, Duane started to regain his energy. Little by little, he was able to return to his daily routine. But the lessons learned will remain with them forever.

"The kids still remember it. We had to keep reassuring them that everything was going to be OK," Sandy said. "We have really changed our outdoor habits. It's a shame, really, that so many doctors act as though it (Lyme disease) doesn't exist in this area."

She said their family is proof that it does, and that everyone should take the disease seriously. "We spread Seven (a bug repellent/killer) on the lawn. We spray our kids down with bug spray before they go outside. We do thorough tick checks as soon as possible after they come inside," she said.

Even with the precautions, they found a small tick embedded on their 2-year-old son, Garrett. After struggling to get it removed thoroughly, they went to the emergency room. Sandy said that they kept the tick in a dated plastic bag just in case Garrett got sick. She recommends that all parents do the same.

"Who would have thought that a little bug like that can have such a powerful affect on a body -- on a whole family," she said. "It isn't even just the sickness and symptoms, but all the effort that goes into getting it out of the body, too. We take Lyme disease seriously."

If you would like to share thoughts with Duane and his family, send an e-mail to dlknopp@yahoo.com

Don't Be a Sucker: The Top 10 Fantasy Tight Ends For 2009

John Zaktansky — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 00:53:09 -0400

Once while on a family vacation to Pigeon Forge, Tenn., I saw the sign and had to investigate.

A large painting of a giant chicken with fangs poking out of its beak accompanied some text. In big, blocky bold letters, it read: COME SEE THE MAN-EATING CHICKEN!!

Not being in an oppositional defiant mood that day, I obliged.

Sure enough, peeking into the window, I saw it … and was instantly mad at myself. I had fallen for the play on words. I was a sucker.

In the room was an obese dude gnawing on a chicken leg. He was a man eating chicken. Hardy stinkin’ har.

Many businesses stake their marketing dollars in tabloid-esque catchphrases. The idea is to catch us off guard … to break the norm and make us believe they know what they’re talking about just because they defied the status quo and did or said something out of the ordinary.

When it comes to your fantasy football rankings – especially for tight ends this year – don’t be one of those people who fall for the cutesy off-the-wall rankings from the “experts.” Don’t be a sucker.

Case in point: one fantasy football publication has Greg Olsen as its top fantasy tight end for 2009.

Yes, Olsen stands to improve significantly with Jay Cutler under center -- and he’ll present a decent value pick this year in most drafts – but to name him the best fantasy tight end in football for 2009 is pretty much the same as saying that little green aliens have impregnated Oprah Winfrey – you know it isn’t true, but you can’t help but read further.

What makes the Olsen claim even more outrageous, in my opinion, is that tight end rankings this year are so cut and dry, especially at the top of the heap.

The top 10 fantasy tight ends, in order, include:

1. Jason Witten

Hands down, the top tight end choice. Anyone who tells you differently is crazy.

With Terrell Owens off to Buffalo, Witten will be the center of the offense. Roy Williams primary job will be keeping defensive pressure off Witten.

Already in practice, the Cowboy brass have lined Witten up all over the field, as tight end, as a primary receiver, etc.

Yes, Witten’s numbers weren’t as impressive as Tony Gonzalez’s last year, but remember that Witten was injured for part of the season and never got his feet under him properly upon returning. That won’t be the case this year.

Even with the missed time, Witten finished with 81 catches, almost 1,000 yards and four touchdowns. Consider that Indy’s top receiver, Reggie Wayne, finished the 2008 campaign with 82 receptions, just over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.

Expect much better things out of Witten in 2009.

2. Tony Gonzalez

The G-man was incredible last year with the Chiefs, but also remember that he was the only offense the team could muster.

He finished with 96 receptions, 1,058 yards and an amazing 10 touchdowns. Look closely at his TD totals however, and you’ll notice that he scored just five each of the previous two years – and that was when the Chiefs had other offensive weapons.

Yes, Tony Gonzalez will benefit from the move to Atlanta, a hot young QB and plenty of offensive support.

But remember, too, that he’ll have to learn a new offense, complete for looks and watch Michael Turner get carry after carry late in the game when the Falcons are running out the clock … something that didn’t happen last year in Kansas City when the Chiefs were airing it out often in catch-up situations.

3. Antonio Gates

Antonio consistently produces much less yardage and overall receptions than either Tony or Jason each season – what bouys Gates’ stock are his TDs.

He’s scored eight or more TDs each of the last three seasons and there is no reason to think he’ll slip any this season.

If he was a bigger part of the offense outside of the red zone, than we’d have to consider bumping up a notch in the rankings, but for now, Gates is the third best option this year.

4. Dallas Clark

Many think Chris Cooley belongs here, but Clark had just one less yard receiving than Cooley last year, and five more touchdowns.

Sure, Cooley will score more TDS in 2009 than in 2008, but Clark is also primed to keep improving, especially with Marvin Harrison out of Colts-land and Clark lining up in the slot and taking catches up the middle.

He is Peyton Manning’s security blanket. Enough said.

5. Chris Cooley

As mentioned before, Cooley’s visits to the endzone were about as few as my visits to Disneyland in 2008.

However, Cooley scored eight times the year before and six times in 2006.

He is QB Jason Campbell’s personal friend, and with Santana Moss fighting Father Time, Cooley should see more looks this year.

6. Owen Daniels

My Sports Illustrated magazine has Daniels ranked 11th among tight ends – behind guys who had less than half as many catches than Daniels in 2009.

Daniels accumulated 70 receptions last year, easily more than anyone outside of the five listed above.

He also registered 862 yards, more than everyone except Witten and Gonzalez.

This was all with top QB Matt Schaub playing in only a fraction of the games due to various injuries and Sage Rosenfels calling the shots.

The Texans offense is primed to be an explosive unit this year, and Daniels will be a fixture of that movement.

7. Kellen Winslow

Kellen spends more time on the IL than I do on the internet.

However, he hasn’t lost his vast talent, and is starting fresh this year with a new team.

Tampa Bay has committed to using Kellen as the center of its offensive attack, and considering the lack of true explosiveness in the Tampa passing game outside of Winslow, I expect Kellen to have his best season as a pro.

However, his tendency to get injured keeps him from ranking higher on this list.

8. Greg Olsen

The Bears have one of the most talented young tight ends in the game, and they finally have a QB that can get him the ball consistently.

Olsen’s massive size (6-5, 252 pounds) will translate into red zone opportunities and it isn’t as though the Bears have a lot of other receivers who deserve extra looks from Cutler.

9. Kevin Boss

The Giants are in need of big guys who can catch the ball consistently in the red zone.

Yes, they drafted some nice rookie receivers, but Eli Manning already has some confidence in Boss.

The tight end started his rookie campaign slow last year, but accumulated 23 catches for 266 yards and four TDs in the final eight games of 2008.

With some extra maturity in the passing game, expect 2009 to be a solid season for Boss.

10. John Carlson

Tough selection here between Carlson and Miami’s Anthony Fasano, but Carlson is much younger and has a better QB heading into 2009.

As a rookie last year, Carlson was the passing game’s lone bright spot after a slew of injuries wiped out the Seahawks receiver stable.

He finished with 55 receptions, 627 yards and five TDs.

TJ Houshmanzadeh and Deon Butler will require some of Matt Hasselbeck’s attention this year, but Carlson should continue to be a solid source of stats.

For more quality fantasy advice, tap into your inner ninja at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Per Dr. Seuss: The Next Class of Elite Fantasy Football Performers

John Zaktansky — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 00:42:32 -0400

... Now, the Star-Belly Sneetches

Had bellies with stars.

The Plain-Belly Sneetches

Had none upon thars. ...

—Dr. Seuss in The Sneetches

Those who play fantasy football know what to do. They draft lots of Sneetches, they study them, too.

Peterson, Fitzgerald, and Brees are all stars. They are the players with stars upon thars.

But what about others, the Plain-Belly sort? Those such as Schaub, Moreno, and Moore?

Those who win titles must attempt a few reaches. They are the ones who take all sorts of Sneetches...

Just like in Dr. Seuss’ classic book, everyone can tell before the season which players are stars. It is as if these players wear bright green stars on their chests—they stand out on top of every cheat sheet. They are the gold standard of fantasy dependency.

However, these players only last the first couple rounds. They are not the players who will ultimately define your fantasy season and how far you make it into the postseason.

Those players are hidden within the Plain-Belly Sneetches but will rightfully earn their respective stars during the course of the season.

These are the Sneetches that I’ll try to draft, the ones who in 2009 will master their craft.

WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay

Jennings finished last season sixth among all fantasy receivers in receiving yards (1,292) and seventh in touchdowns (nine).

He is the go-to receiver in an offense that is built to pass, has a young quarterback that continues to gain confidence, and a running game that is solid enough to keep defenses honest, but not so talented as to take away from the passing game.

The rapport between Aaron Rodgers and Jennings is excellent. There is no reason to believe that Jennings doesn’t take the next step towards being an elite receiver in the league. I actually believe he’ll be a top-five receiver by year’s end (behind Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson).

QB Matt Schaub, Houston

I’ve beaten my 2009 man crush with Schaub to death in recent columns. I’ll avoid getting into details yet again. The bottom line is that he’s in the perfect scheme to succeed this year and will finish the season as an elite fantasy option.

TE Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay

Watch tight ends such as Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Tony Gonzalez be taken early, and then snag Winslow in the later rounds and feel good about your investment.

Winslow, at least for the time being, has cleaned up his act, devoted himself to football, and is emerging as the center of the Bucs offense, according to early reports.

Consider this quote from Tampa OC Jeff Jagodzinski: "I’ve been very, very fortunate with the guys that I’ve had. I had Bubba Franks as a rookie (in Green Bay). I had Alge Crumpler (in Atlanta), who was as good a tight end as I’ve been around.... I use those guys a lot. Quite a bit."

The Buccaneers don’t have a ton of receiving options, so expect Winslow to finally capitalize on his size and athletic potential.

RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, Arizona

Recent news from Cardinal-land is that Tim Hightower will be the starting running back in week one. Let your league mates sweat that out a little, and hopefully Wells will fall to you.

There is no doubt that Wells will be the main weapon out of that backfield throughout the season, and considering the passing game already in place in Arizona, Wells won’t have to carry the weight of the team on his shoulders.

The Cardinals play against a number of suspect defenses this year, and as they run up the score, Wells will have plenty of opportunities to tote the rock and run out the clock.

RB Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo

A player that represents great risk, but if he falls to the fifth or sixth round in your respective fantasy drafts, he may be a worthwhile investment. At the moment, he is suspended the first three weeks of the season, but an appeal may ultimately shorten that amount by a game or so.

Either way, Lynch has some demons that will keep other owners away, but when he does play, he has the size and improving offense around him to translate into decent stat opportunities.

Yes, Fred Jackson will start the season in the Buffalo backfield, but Lynch is the better back. Consider that the Bills have improving QB Trent Edwards and suddenly a formidable one-two punch at receiver with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans, and he has the opportunity to become the back that many predicted he would last season.

WR Bernard Berrian, Minnesota

At this point, it’s just a formality that Brett Favre will quarterback the Vikings in 2009. No player benefits more from that news than Bernard Berrian, who was frothing at the mouth at the prospect of Favre in purple all offseason.

Consider that Berrian had nearly 1,000 yards receiving last year with Tarvaris Jackson heaving him the pigskin. Consider that Adrian Peterson will demand attention from opposing defenses. Consider that Percy Harvin will attract at least a little attention elsewhere on the field.

This will be Berrian’s season to shine, and he will easily produce elite numbers at a fraction of the cost on draft day.

QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo

It isn’t hard to explain the reasoning behind Edwards as a QB with upside this season. Terrell Owens won’t be a superstar in Buffalo, but he doesn’t have to be. He finally allows Lee Evans to return to a role that he thrived in during the Eric Moulds days—as a top-notch WR2.

The two-headed monster, combined with talent at RB and a strengthening defense, means Edwards has nowhere to go but up this season.

Again, anyone can identify a Star-Belly Sneetch. Who are your Plain-Belly Sneetches that are worth a look?

For more fantasy advice and discussion, tap into the ninja nation at www.chinstrapninjas.com.

Hunting Dog Name Game

John Zaktansky — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:58:42 -0400

I have just come to realize that the hardest thing in the world to do is name a bird dog puppy.

There is too much pressure. Man's best friend deserves man's best name, right?

Of course, this coming from a guy who was diagnosed by his dentist as having Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder.

My family has a litter of Brittanys, the last out of my super-solid hunting companion JDZ Shotgun Shell.

She kept my original line open the one I started when I was a boy with JDZ Silver Bullet. We are keeping an orange and white female puppy, and are excited about her potential.

But what if we choose the wrong name? Will she be limited in some way?

I don't remember things being so complicated when I named Bullet and Shell. Even when my wife and I finally chose to name our daughter Paige, it felt right from the start.

Why can't it be so easy to name this puppy?

I want to stick with the gun/shooting/hunting-related call names. My son suggested Sniper. My wife prefers Winnie (short for Winchester) or Remmy (short for Remington).

I just want to find the perfect call name that isn't going to scar the puppy for life when I'm calling it off the scent of a rabbit or deer, one that won't lead to family tension each time we have to call the puppy in from the yard.

Some say that naming any pet is tough, but that is hogwash. Have a cat, you have everything from Felix to Fluffy. An ordinary dog that you don't use for hunting? Fido, Rex, etc.

But a hunting dog is different. It needs a tough name. It needs a name that jingles when you yell it out loud, a name that won't be misinterpreted when you need to yell it out loud in public (like Axle). Anyone who has any decency wouldn't name their bird dog Muffin (another cat name) or FooFoo (strictly for bunnies).

So, here I sit spinning wheels, pondering names, and using search engines to look up shooting/hunting terms. Hoping that with the next click of my mouse, the perfect name will appear. One that doesn't leave our puppy with self-image issues and keeps the homeplace in order. The pressure.

Did I mention my dentist thinks I have OCD?

Veto Power: A Guide to Evaluating Pending Fantasy Football Trades

John Zaktansky — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 00:28:57 -0400

A little word, yet so much power.

Veto, or the act of nullifying a bill or action, is eerily similar to the word "vote."

Fitting, since in many fantasy football leagues, you may be asked to vote to either veto or approve a pending trade at some point this season.

But, as Peter Parker says in the Spiderman movies, "With great power comes great responsibility."

Trade vetoes have led to some serious fantasy league controversies, and even torn some leagues apart.

Therefore, the power of veto should never be taken lightly. However, it also shouldn’t induce an ulcer.

Here are some tips on handling pending trade approvals in your league, while keeping your sanity intact:

1. Before you do anything else this season, take a moment to double-check your league’s pending trade approval process.

This procedure varies from league to league. In some leagues, the commissioner has sole power of veto. He/she will decide whether a trade is kosher, or if it requires some extra research. In other leagues, this process is left up for league review (or voting).

2. When a trade is approved by both teams involved, and is up for approval, don’t panic. Ask yourself a simple question...does the trade seem equal to you for both teams involved? If so, approve the deal and move on. End of story.

3. If you have some concerns about the value of players exchanging teams, than you need to consider if there was any collusion involved (collusion is when a team in your league knowingly trades away more value than it receives as a way to help out another owner).

At this point, the only thing you should worry about is the collusion factor. One red flag of possible collusion includes if both owners involved in the trade are family members or really close friends.

Another involves looking at the standings...is one team tanking its season to help another gear up for a playoff or championship run? Is either owner acting weird about the trade (pushing for a quick approval or getting more involved in league discussions than he/she did previously)?

4. If you are concerned about collusion, share those concerns with the commissioner. A fair next step is to request that both owners involved publicly defend why they accepted the deal. If both can convincingly defend their actions, than approve the deal and forget about it.

5. If either owner does not respond in a stated amount of time, or offers a pathetic excuse for the deal, than the commissioner and league needs to discuss the next line of action—In all fairness, the deal is suspended until enough evidence can be collected that the trade was made without collusion concerns.

Notice that throughout all of this, I didn’t recommend approving or vetoing a trade based solely on your opinions of whether or not it was fair. As far as I’m concerned, this is ways too subjective to be a determining factor for trade approvals.

For example, let’s say last season someone in your league attempted to trade Joseph Addai or Larry Johnson straight up for DeAngelo Williams or Thomas Jones right after your draft.

In every draft and every ranking heading into the 2008 season, both Addai and Johnson were ranked well ahead of Williams and Jones. If you were someone who vetoed trades because they seemed one-sided, than the Addai-for-Williams deal would have never went through.

Except, we all know how things wound up last year. Williams and Jones smoked Addai and Johnson in fantasy production.

Killing a pending trade just because you may not see the value of both sides kills any chance for an owner take risks and try to build an empire. It is sort of equivalent to fantasy communism.

So, when push comes to shove, the only true way to evaluate a pending trade is through the litmus test of collusion—nothing else.

Keep it simple, and your fantasy experience will be much more fun.

For more fantasy sports advice, channel your inner ninja and check out

www.chinstrapninjas.com

Trading Paint: Sport of Paintball Continues Rapid Growth

John Zaktansky — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 17:52:19 -0400

The thick, chest-high vegetation blocked out the sun and sounds of the field around it.

It was in that quiet, serene thicket that I found myself crawling on my stomach, Army-style, through a cool mud patch.

Suddenly, from a distance, came a barrage of sounds. It was as if someone was shagging softballs with an aluminum bat, except there was also a swooshing of air with each metallic thud.

While peeking through a small opening in the brush, I heard the noise again ... FWHUP, FWHUP, FWHUP.

Stalks shook, leaves fell and a sideways hailstorm of paint balls penetrated the vegetation. Returning fire, I retreated deeper into the thicket and felt the adrenaline pumping through my veins.

It was just another afternoon of outdoor fun at AEL Paintball, located just outside of Milton, PA, along Route 405.

AEL, a family-owned business, was opened in 2004 as a place in the community for both new and experienced paintball enthusiasts, according to owner Matt Pierce. "We wanted to offer a professional environment that brought players to the next level, all at a great price."

Pierce got into paintball as teenager.

"My older brother purchased a paintball gun (or marker) in the mid-1990s and hid it from our parents. While he was away at work, my friends and I would take it and play in the woods," Pierce said. "Now, since I own the paintball field, I've had lots of opportunities to try out new equipment and play with a wide range of local and visiting people."

AEL offers two playing areas. The Speed ball range is a large, open field laced with inflatable bunkers. There also is a wooded course with a combination of natural bunkers and those made out of wood, old cable spools, plastic barrels, pallets, trenches, moats, boats, and other materials. For one price, all the equipment necessary to play is available for rental. With that price comes the experience of trained paintball referees.

According to Pierce, paintball is a growing sport with a high ceiling.

"Paintball has been geared to a younger crowd, offering a fun and competitive sport that is different from the traditional options like baseball and soccer," he said. "Paintball can be played indoors and in several different scenarios outdoors, so it offers lots of options all year round."

AEL, owned by the same family as Blue Heron Sporting Goods, in Milton, draws people from both the local area and outside the state.

"Last year we had a group of kids from New York that were passing through and wanted to play for a few hours. Their group was 82 strong and tired of sitting on the buses. They were dropped off, given the rules, handed equipment and playing within the hour," Pierce said. "It was like a massive storm blew through the field. Kids were screaming and laughing, paint balls were flying, tactics and bravery were seen from both sides. The games were back-to-back, and it came and went just like a thunderstorm in June. It was a blast!"

As with any sport or activity, safety is the responsibility of the participants, according to Pierce.

"But by playing at AEL Paintball, you have the added benefit of trained staff to oversee all activities. We test-fire all markers before play to ensure they are at the proper speed, and all participants must wear a safety mask and use a safety device on their markers when not in play," he said.

"All paintballs are purchased on-site to guarantee that they are in good condition. In addition, our games are structured with clear objectives and rules, and the referee is available to settle any disagreements that may arise. Any sport or activity can be dangerous if the participants choose to make dangerous decisions."

For those interested in getting started and purchasing their own equipment, there are a lot of things to consider.

"There is a wide range of paintball makers available. Some brands focus on low cost, some focus on quality and some focus on flashy looks. Most of the mid-range paintball markers are very reliable. There are some accessories that improve the accuracy of your marker, but many that just improve the look or style," said Pierce. "In general, the price of paintball supplies has come down and is now less costly than equipment for many of the traditional sports.

"One of the best advantages that AEL Paintball can offer the local community is the ability to try out the games and different rental packages before buying your own equipment. The referees can help by offering expertise on the different makes and models of paintball supplies."

For more information, including rates, check out the program's Web site

Fantasy Football: Three Sleepers You Can't Afford to Sleep On

John Zaktansky — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 01:48:10 -0400

It’s 1 a.m., and all I can think about is sleep.

Not sleeping, mind you, but sleepers.

For those who lack the lingo of fantasy sports, sleepers are players who you feel will greatly outproduce projections heading into the season. They are players that you can acquire at a solid value.

Identify and draft (or trade for) several sleeper players, and you’ll have plenty of ammo to survive your fantasy football season and make some noise in the post-season.

Every fantasy site—and every fantasy manager—has his own list of sleepers. Check out as many as you can, compare notes and watch for trends.

Usually, the best sleepers are players who find themselves in the right place at the right time. They can be rookies who excel in a new system, a player who is traded into the right situation or an aging player that other fantasy owners have written off.

Now, I’m the type of guy who likes to go against the grain at times. You can read all about “sleepers” like Steve Slaton (who I expect good things from this season), Fred Taylor, and Anthony Gonzalez in a different post at a different time.

Instead, I present to you three of my ”off-the-beaten-path” sleeper picks:

QB: Matt Schaub, Houston

Those who know me know that I’m obsessed with Schaub as a super QB value. What’s not to like about Schaub? He’s got a young, yet steadily improving defense to help keep games in hand.

He’s got a young, yet steadily improving running back who loves to catch the ball out of the backfield and make some noise in the trenches (Steve Slaton, for those who didn’t already know).

He’s got arguably the best receiver in the game to throw to (Andre Johnson) and many people seriously undervalue both WR Kevin Walter and TE Owen Daniels.

Schaub was fantasy gold last season when he played. In those games, he ranked sixth in overall fantasy performance, was fourth in yards per game and was in the top eight in TDs per game played.

The only thing standing between Schaub and fantasy stardom is a tendency to get banged up.

However, the Texans O-line is an underrated group that continues to improve. If Schaub can stay healthy all season, I will put my reputation (what little I have) on the line in saying that Schaub performs as a top-five fantasy QB.

Now imagine getting that late in your draft, after filling your roster with studs at other positions.

RB: Chester Taylor, Minnesota

Again, I could have rattled off a number of value picks here, but I wanted to dig a little deeper. Chester Taylor is currently backing up Adrian Peterson with the Vikings.

On the surface, there may not seem to be much point in drafting Taylor onto your fantasy team. Except that Taylor, when getting his share of carries, can still produce.

He finished last season with just a hair under 400 yards rushing—and another 400 yards receiving—with a total of six TDs in spot duty.

Adrian Peterson is a stud back, but many wonder about his long-term durability, especially when considering how hard he runs each time he touches the ball. I am predicting that he will be hampered by some sort of injury this season at some point.

Many feel that Peterson will see a reduction in carries this season as the Vikings attempt to keep him fresh for a possible playoff run.

Odds are also lining up that Brett Favre will be QBing the Vikings this year, which will open lanes for the running game.

Also, the Vikings have a cupcake schedule—especially for the first third of the season. Lastly, many don’t realize that Taylor, this year, is an unrestricted free agent.

His 2010 payday—and where he plays next season—will depend solely on how well he performs this year. You would be very wise to snag Taylor late in your respective drafts and stash him away for a rainy day.

WR: Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh

Again, there are a lot of potential options here, but Holmes has all the makings of finally taking his game to the next level.

Reports from the Steel City relay that Holmes has bulked up in the off-season in preparation to be a more physical presence on the field. Nate Washington has left Dodge, and Holmes will see even more targets as a result.

Overall, I would not be surprised to see Holmes double his TD total from last year (5) and finish the season as an elite option.

For additional fantasy advice, check out ninja nation at www.chinstrapninjas.com.

Ripples From Vick Dogfighting Story Continue To Spread

John Zaktansky — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:41:15 -0400

Before we outdoorsy people like your's truly chastises Sports Illustrated's John Rolfe for his anti-hunting online column (August 21, 2007), I should at least give him the benefit of the doubt, right?

Perhaps he has a point.

In his “Getting Loose” column, Rolfe applauds the NFL in regards the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal. He (and PETA, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) say that while the NFL did the right thing in this case so far, it should go further, making a blanket policy that outlaws any cruelty to animals. Rolfe points at Jonathan Babineaux (accused in February of beating his girlfriend's pitbull, which later died) and Thomas Hammer (accused in 2001 for beating his dog) as examples.

He then suggests that this new blanket policy could include other versions of animal cruelty, such as hunting. He makes a point that NFL players who take part in hunting should be sanctioned similarly to Vick.

For those who don't agree with Rolfe (and his PETA cronies) that hunting isn't cruel, he explains:

“Don't think that widely-accepted recreational activity is cruel? That deer or rabbit that just had a shell or arrow put into it and crawled off to bleed to death in the brush will beg to differ, as will the buffalo, boar, elk and more that are sitting ducks in enclosed areas on so-called 'canned hunt' farms. And if you go by PETA's standards, fishing is a no-go, too. Think that bass enjoys that hook in the roof of its mouth while it's hauled gasping out of the drink?”

Deep stuff. Why stop there, Mr. Rolfe?

While we're at it, let's ban all NFL players who eat meat. Forget about Bambi getting shot in the woods—at least Bambi got to experience a little freedom before his demise. What about all the beef cattle that are raised strictly for meat, standing knee-high in manure? (I know this isn't the case at most farms, but then again, most true hunters don't leave rabbits and deer to suffer in the bushes. If Rolfe can make unfair stereotypical generalizations, why can’t I?).

Let’s also ban all NFL players who wear clothes made of wool or leather or other animal-based substance. Those animals were all miserable during their lifetimes at various farms, too, I'm sure. (Again, some unfair stereotypical generalizations).

Let's ban the NFL players who drive cars, or ride in cars (or limos). The leather-based seats and other animal-based products in cars are nothing when compared to the animals who are killed, maimed, and tortured on America's highways, not to mention affected negatively by automobile pollution problems. I don't have official figures, but I’d bet there are exponentially more animals injured by automobiles each year in this country than by hunting.

Let’s ban all the NFL players who fly in airplanes to games or anywhere. How many birds have been victims of airplane collisions? What about all the animal habitat that was ruined in the building of America’s airports and runways?

Speaking of habitat, let's ban all NFL players who live in a home. Animal products involved aside, homes destroy animal habitat. Wetlands, trees (for wood building supplies), and even pastures are destroyed every day across the country as more and more new homes are built. Forget about the inconvenience of a hook in the roof of a bass’s mouth. Destroying habitat is much more cruel than fishing.

While we're at it, let’s ban all NFL players who use medicine or any item developed from animal byproducts. Let’s ban players who use oil-based products, so that less oil is needed and less wells are drilled, less pollution finds its way into our waterways and less holes wind up in our ozone layer. What about those who use paper or other wood-based items that take away, again, from the trees in our ecosystem?

If we really want to go all the way, why don’t we ban any NFL player who breathes? They leave behind less oxygen for all the little critters in our great outdoors, which might be a little too stressful for the animals in our ecosystem.

Then again, why do we look at NFL players under such a high-powered microscope? Do we expect them to be role models for the rest of us? If that's the case, let's arrest every person who violated an animal, whether intentional or not.

Trying to relate the atrocities of dogfighting—a legitimate cruelty-to-animal crime—to hunting is like comparing Paris Hilton to Mother Teresa. There is no real comparison.

What Rolfe, and many of the PETA ranks, seem to forget is that the freedom of speech they practice in complaining about hunting is no more valuable than the freedom and rights of hunters to practice their trade.

I agree that there are many “hunters” who tarnish the image of what we hold dear. Canned hunts, being unsafe and unethical in the woods, etc., only fuel the fire of people like Rolfe.

And with that, Mr. Rolfe does share a powerful message for each of us in his column: That more than ever, hunters need to take their trade seriously, or we may all be banned from a way of life.

Fishing and Economics: A Lesson in Worm-O-Nomics

John Zaktansky — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:02:27 -0400

For those who missed it, gas prices jumped considerably during the past week. July 4th is tomorrow, we fuel-guzzling Americans know all too well what that means.

However, before you start hyperventilating or popping some Paxil, just remember that it could be worse. Much worse.

You see, Exxon and Chevron have nothing on Mike’s Bait Shop.

Mike’s provides live bait to be sold at convenience stores in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and other eastern states. Obviously, if you are shopping at a convenience store you aren’t shopping for value, but for the convenience of not having to run the extra five miles to a larger store. For that convenience, you expect to pay a little extra for your loaf of bread, gallon of milk, or Snickers bar.

But paying $3.89 for a dozen Canadian nightcrawlers is just plain ridiculous, no matter where you buy them. You can buy one gallon of milk, one-and-a-half gallons of gas, or three loaves of bread for the same price as 12 worms.

However, that’s only the tip of the proverbial iceberg. According to various online sources, the average nightcrawler weighs approximately one gram. (Seems a little light for a nightcrawler, but who am I to question information found on the internet?) So, for $3.89, you get 12 grams of worm.

That converts to $9.20 an ounce, or $147.14 per pound of nightcrawler.

That may be short of the gold standard (currently $913 per ounce of gold), yet nightcrawlers, at $9.20 an ounce, rank up with plenty of other high-end products.

Silver right now is selling for $14 an ounce. Ritzy perfume Chanel No. 5 can be found for sale online for $11 an ounce. High-end pure maple syrup sells for 57 cents an ounce. Whitefish caviar sells for $6.75 an ounce. Black Truffle Puree sells for $13.71 an ounce.

Pretty disturbing, especially if you’ve driven on a local rural road at night during a soaking rainstorm. During the 20-mile drive home from work the other night, I must have killed well over $1,000 worth of worms.

At least fuel prices aren’t as unbearable as they were last year. Goodbye gas-gouging, hello worm-gouging.

Who is confronting the live bait industry? Who’s protecting us small-time, procrastinating fishermen who forget the bucket of garden worms at home and swing into the Turkey Hill on the way to the trout stream?

Of course, the only real solution is to take matters into our own, individual hands. Buying your worms in bulk drops the price considerably. Taking a little time in the backyard with a shovel helps out even more.

While roto-tilling our garden this spring, and taking care of a septic problem, we made an extra effort at the Zaktansky homestead to harvest the worms we found while digging. They currently live in a neat styrofoam worm habitat my wife purchased for me two years ago.

There are plenty of alternative live bait options online. For those who like fishing with waxworms, which is my bait of choice for trout fishing, there is a waxworm breeder kit for $24.95 at www.waxwormkit.com. According to information at that site, you can use the kit to raise “hundreds—even thousands” of waxworms.

Not only does this sound like a neat family project (yes, to some of us raising little white worms that resemble maggots can be considered neat), but it is a good investment. At the convenience store, two dozen waxworms are $3.89. That means for the same price of a waxworm breeding kit, you would only get six containers—or 144 waxworms.

No matter how you personally deal with the treacherous economics surrounding live bait buying, there are two lessons here. Some pre-planning, getting back to basics, and doing more for yourself isn’t just a smart way to prepare for a fishing trip, but also makes a wise lifestyle choice for those trying to tackle bigger economic situations.

And the other lesson?

If a pound of nightcrawlers costs $147.14, just imagine how much you are worth!

Fantasy Football: One Mistake You Want to Avoid on Draft Day

John Zaktansky — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:01:38 -0400

First, a little brain teaser.

You are going to take a seven-day trip to the beach. Checking the long-range weather forecast, six of the days will be sunny and hot. Not a cloud in the sky. The other day will bring steady, heavy rain. As you finish packing, you realize you only have room for one more item. You are left with sunscreen and an umbrella. Which do you take along?

Now, you may be wondering what this has to do with fantasy football. Bear with me. It's my poor excuse of an illustration on why I hate—no, loathe—certain age-old fantasy drafting axiom.

You see, there are certain fantasy football experts who live and die by the 'rule' that you never draft two of any starter with the same bye week. Their mantra is that you must closely watch possible bye-week conflicts and draft accordingly.

Therefore, for example, if you are drafting eighth out of a 12-team league, and you happily draft Frank Gore at spot 1.08 — you better avoid any other running back with a Week 6 bye. So, in the second round, at pick 2.04, you aren’t allowed to draft Ronnie Brown, Marion Barber or Joseph Addai.

Yet, why handicap yourself? If you feel that Ronnie Brown is easily the most talented remaining player when you draft in the second round of said imaginary draft, than why not take him? Why not anchor your team with the best running back tandem possible?

Why not choose the sunscreen?

You see, in the illustration above, the decision between sunscreen and an umbrella is simple. Are you willing to sacrifice one day out of your vacation to improve the other six, or do you fixate on the one day of rain in the forecast, take the umbrella, and then miss out on extended hours of basking in the sun for most of the trip?

It’s much the same way in fantasy leagues. Why limit your team 13-out-of-14 regular season games just so you don't have two players on the same bye week? Why reach for Reggie Bush or Brandon Jacobs if you feel that Ronnie Brown or Marion Barber is the far superior pick?

Those who consider themselves fantasy experts are all about rules for drafting the perfect team. As if they are trying to justify their own existence, they write catchy fantasy columns listing tips and ideas and suggestions and strategies on how to kill the competition on draft day.

And as your next draft pick nears, you get ulcers in your stomach and pull clumps of hair from your head as you wade through the countless barrage of tips and strategies, trying frantically to narrow down the selection.

However, it is all so simple. When drafting, simply choose the best player available that fills a need on your roster.

End of story.

Sure, glancing at bye weeks can be a helpful tool later in your respective drafts if you don't want to lose three bench spots picking up a backup tight end, kicker ,and defense for a one-week fill-in. But then again, in most cases roster spots usually become available over the course of the season as sleeper picks fall into comas and certain players catch the injury bug.

The bottom line is to walk into your draft ready to have fun, ready to select the best player available that fills a need, and ready to bask in the sun of knowing that you chose the best possible team without regrets or hesitations.

Oh, and don’t forget the sunscreen.

For additional timely fantasy advice, tap into the fantasy ninja nation at www.chinstrapninjas.com