Bleacher Report - Articles by Harry Pavlidis

Early Guess at Cubs 25-Man Roster

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 12:55:00 -0500

Just throwing this out there. The back-up catcher and the right fielder are guesses. Jeff Samardzija is being talked about as a starter, even in Iowa (think Sean Marshall as the no. 5 once Marquis is moved) so he doesn't make the list. I do expect Marshall to move into the rotation, opening another bullpen spot. And I'm not so sure about Wuertz.

For now, I'm listing 14 hitters and 11 pitchers. Hoffpauir could go for a corner infielder who can play third, too. Guesses/likely changes are marked with a *.



C  Geovany Soto
1B Derrek Lee
2B Mark DeRosa
SS Ryan Theriot
3B Aramis Ramirez
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Reed Johnson
CF Kosuke Fukudome
RF Milton Bradley*
PH Micah Hoffpauir*
OF Joey Gathright
C  Paul Bako*
IF Mike Fontenot
IF Ronny Cedeno

SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Rich Harden
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Ted Lilly
SP Jason Marquis*
RP Sean Marshall*
RP Carlos Marmol
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Neal Cotts
RP Chad Gaudin
RP Michael Wuertz*

Rich Hill En Vivo

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 20:41:00 -0500

One of my favorite things right now is LVBPTV, which features streaming live, and recorded, coverage of Venezuelan games.

Tonight, Rich Hill, pitching for Aragua, faced Caracas and made his second appearance on Venezuelan TV. I think you can get the "Max" channel with some DirecTV packages, and hopefully the MLB Network will cover these games in the future. For now, so-so quality streaming video is all I've got.

There were issues with the broadcast, so I haven't seen the first inning yet. It started with a single, followed by a Matt Murton grounder that Ronny Cedeno turned into a six-four-three double play. Cubs, and ex-Cubs all over this game.

In the second, Hill threw two nice curveballs, one a first pitch strike. Still, you could see he was missing spots with the fastball, and only threw one slider.

With two out, Rich threw eight straight balls to put two on. On one pitch, he dropped down almost side arm (or so it looked), and seemed to be speeding up his delivery on others.

What followed was a stern talking to by the manager or pitching coach (not sure which), which seemed to work.

Hill got Gregorio Petit on a generous third strike. The zone was so generous on that call, Petit really let the umpire have it between innings. As they played back the outburst after the commercial break, I was amazed, but not surprised, that Petit wasn't ejected.

Randy Newsom (a true sidearming lefty), who is idling in the Caracas bullpen, has been blogging about his stay in Venezuela, and recently mentioned how it seems impossible to get tossed.

Hill's third inning started with another called third strike. This one legitimate, on a nice big curveball that finished up and away, but a clear strike. That type of pitch isn't fair to hitters. The second hitter of the inning was also called out on strikes, this time a nice slider.

The next man up was Murton, who went 2-2 on another ridiculous curveball. After fouling one off, Murton ripped a double into left-center. Sam Fuld cut the ball off, but he couldn't get anything on the throw. On a 2-2 count, Murton stole third without a throw.

Murton was plated when a 3-2 grounder deflected off Hill. Cedeno barehanded the ball but threw it wide of first. The ball got past everyone, but bounced of the wall quickly, and Jesus Guzman could not advance. With Guzman at first, Hill got Josh Kroeger looking at a slider, after slinging one more pitch sidearm.

Hill's half of the fourth, after Aragua tied the game in the third on a Franklin Morales balk, started with a fly to Fuld. It was the second time Hill got a batter on a high fly off his curveball.

Carlos Maldanado got a first pitch curve, for a strike, but managed to stroke an 0-2 curve past Cedeno in the hole for a single and stole second.

Maldanado's swipe put pressure on Hill, and he responded by issuing a walk, putting two men on for Petit. Petit reached on a fielders choice, putting runners at the corners with two out. With two more curveballs, one taken for a strike, one for a weak grounder to third, Hill escaped again.

That was it for Hill, as he racked-up 82 pitches in those four innings, according to Gameday. Hill allowed one run on four hits and three walks. He struck-out four and showed both sides of his game - the good and the bad.

Rich threw a lot of good first pitch curves, seemed to drop his arm a few times on lefties, and managed to look good, even very good, at times. But, fragile is the best word to describe him, and talented is the second best word. Rich Hill has a world class curveball, there's no doubt about that.

Chicago Cubs' Winter Update

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 03:26:58 -0500

Winter baseball is in full swing in this part of the world. The Puerto Rican league got underway, joining the Dominican, Venezuelan, and Mexican leagues in Latin America. Both the Arizona Fall League and Hawaii Winter Baseball are still playing, so we're at peak activity.

As the Winter moves on, we'll get the Caribbean Series, which is a fun tournament, followed by the second edition of the World Baseball Classic. Next thing you know, it will be opening day.

The Cubs' organization has had a lot of players already seeing action, but, as of Thursday, several of those guys are now minor-league free agents. Jason Dubois, apparently on the DL for Mexicali, is one recognizable name on the list, having made his return to the (Iowa) Cubs in 2008.

Most notable is Josh Kroeger, once a hot prospect with the D-backs, got a cup of coffee but eventually became a minor-league free agent. That's how he came to the Cubs, and, after a solid year in Iowa, Kroeger continues to kill the ball and draw walks, for Caracas, the "Yankees of Venezuela".

Rich Hill has been awful in Venezuela. Combining his 2008 numbers, you find a guy who made 22 starts, but averaged less than four innings a shot. You also find a guy who strikes out 8.9 per nine innings (that's almost three starts to you and me) but walks 8.2 over the same span. That's right, almost a walk per inning. In Rich's most recent start, he walked six in four innings. Commandicus Disappearicus.

Angel Guzman made his third start for Magallenes in Venezuela on Friday. In his second straight five-inning appearance, Angel issued just one walk, but allowed two runs on seven hits, without a single strike out. He did earn his second win, but, working on six days rest, this clearly wasn't a strong outing. In 13 innings, Angel has issued just two walks while striking out eight. His ERA is 2.08.

Jake Fox and Felix Pie are playing for another prestigious team, Licey, in the Dominican Republic. Pie recently joined, and looks to be a No. 8 hitter in a center-field platoon. I really think his days as a Cub are numbered. He's so far off the radar screen, Fukudome is in line to be the lefty half of the Cubs platoon.

Fox, meanwhile, is batting over .500 with power, playing first and DH. It is hard to take him seriously as a prospect at this point, but maybe Hendry can trade him to the A's or some other A.L. team.

In Arizona, the Mesa Solar Sox have come back from a slow start, driven by offense, and just lost two straight to relinquish a share of the lead in their half of the AFL. Nate Spears and Steve Clevenger have contributed at the plate. Clevenger, one of the Cubs stable of young catchers which includes Wellington Castillo (riding the pines for Licey), has cooled off.

Spears is basically a singles hitter but keeps getting on base. Darwin Barney has been getting some at-bats as the lead-off hitter and has improved his performance of late. Spears and Barney currently provide some organizational depth in the middle infield, but Barney, the Oregon State star, appears to be moving up quickly.

Also playing for the Solar Sox are four Cubs pitching prospects. Rockey Roquet, Donald Veal, Esmalin Caridad and Jesse Estrada.



            IP   K   B  ER  HR  WP  HB 

Roquet     9.2   7   6   4   1   0   0

Caridad   12.0  13   3   5   1   0   0

Estrada   19.2  17   6   8   4   0   1

Veal       5.0   6  10   5   0   2   0

Caridad is an interesting prospect, and I hope the Cubs trade Veal.

I've only touched on a few of the players the Cubs have on Winter-league rosters. You can get all the stats, and more, on the Winter leagues at MLB.com. I've also got a running post of notes, updates, and links.

Rich Hill Picks Up Win, Boosts Trade Value

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 00:14:00 -0400

Rich Hill made his debut in Venezuela Friday night in Maracay. Rich threw 5.1 innings to get the decision in Aragua's first win of the 2008/2009 season. Hill didn't walk any batters, and struck out six, allowing two earned on four hits.

Sam Fuld made his third start in center and leading off. Fuld finished the night one for three with a walk and a run scored.

Cubs minor leaguer Justin Berg came into a tight situation in the eight inning, with los Tigres holding a two-run lead. Inheriting runners on the corners with no outs, Berg got a double play ball (which plated a runner) and got the put-out on Edgardo Alfonzo's pop-up to finish the inning. Berg also got the first out of the ninth.

Hill's strong outing is something to build upon. If he increases his value, he can be shopped to countless teams. A lefty with great season on his resume, who makes close to minimum, would fit well in a lot of places. Possibly with the Cubs.

Plenty of other Cubs in action tonight, including Josh Kroeger, who homered for Caracas. Updates posted regularly at the Winter Cubs post.

Arizona Fall Cubs: Donald Veal Wild, Nate Spears Hot

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 18:43:00 -0400

The Mesa Solar Sox and Peoria Saguaros faced off Friday afternoon in Peoria. The 18-10 shoot-out featured some good, and some bad, from Cubs prospects, with the Solar Sox ending up on top.

The Sox day included a seven-run inning, only to be topped by an eigh-spot in the ninth. The Saguaros committed six errors, and gave up 21 hits and six walks.

Donald Veal, being looked at as a lefty reliever, got obliterated in the sixth inning. Getting only one out, Veal allowed five runs, three earned, on just a single hit.

Veal walked the first three hitters he faced, before giving up a single and another walk. Those four walks were the only by a Solar Sox pitcher.

Veal was yanked after two runners had scored, but another single and catcher Steve Clevenger's error and passed ball let all of Veals' runners score. The 9-5 lead turned into a 10-9 deficit.

Clevenger did contribute to the offense, despite two costly mistakes with the glove. The AFL veteran drew three walks, and knocked an RBI double in the ninth.

Nate Spears, who also committed his first error of the fall season, continued to rake. With two doubles, a single, two runs, and two RBI, Spears actually lowered his OPS to 1.471. Not a bad start to the short season.

Tyler Colvin and Darwin Barney did not play, and neither have put up good numbers to date.

For OPS and ERA for all Cubs Fall/Winter players, please see my Winter Cubs post, which is updated daily.

Two Strike Fouls—Not the Key for Kazmir

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 22:13:00 -0400

Listening to the fifth game of the ALCS, the Tampa broadcast, while Scott Kazmir enjoys the home run festival. One of the announcers said a key for Kazmir is reducing foul balls on strike two, since it can pile-up the pitch count.

Sure, a foul ball means another pitch when all the other outcomes don't. Which is a little misleading. If I get you to foul one off, then whiff, is that more or less pitches if I gave up a line drive single on that foul ball, instead? The real question is, why am I pitching?

Back to Kazmir. For strike two counts only, all PITCHf/x recorded games, for pitchers with at least 300 qualifying counts. Looking at swings, and hit batters, too.

Group Averages
In Play	0.243
Foul	0.242
Whiff	0.118
Homer	0.007
HBP	0.002

So, there you have it. That's from a sample of 222,000 + pitches. How does Kazmir compare? His sample includes 1212 pitches.

Scott	Kazmir
In Play	0.202
Foul	0.278
Whiff	0.144
Homer	0.012
HBP	0.003

Figuring about 20 strike-two counts per start, the 3.5 percent difference between Kazmir and the group means about 2-5 extra pitches per month. It could cost him an inning or two over the course of the season, so I'd only worry about it coming all at once.

Since Kazmir ranked 42 out of 330 pitchers, perhaps he isn't extreme enough.

Here are the top five in fouls on strike two.

Dave	Borkowski	0.331
Scott	Baker	0.326
Russ	Springer	0.319
Rafael	Betancourt	0.314
Jonathan	Papelbon	0.310

And the bottom five

Shawn	Chacon	0.182
Kason	Gabbard	0.182
Daniel	Cabrera	0.181
Adam	Wainwright	0.181
John	Grabow	0.169

So, for an extreme split, let's take .32 and .18. That's about three more pitches per start as a result of foul balls on strike two.

So, sure, there can be an effect, but pretty small in any case.

For a guy like Scott Kazmir, who is in the top 15 percent of this group, and presumably the league, it is probably a stretch to make it a key to his game.

Rich Harden—Faster Is Better

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 20:47:00 -0400

Rich Harden will try to stave off elimination Saturday night in Chavez Ravine. Harden, despite control issues, remains tough to hit. The Dodgers will counter with Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda shut-out the Cubs earlier this season, but isn't a sure thing for the Dodgers.

Buster Olney reported (sub. req.) that he "heard" Harden had a cortisone shot in "early September." That got me thinking, how's his stuff start-to-start?

With PITCHf/x, I'll look at the relationship between Harden's fastball and change-up velocity, their movement and effectiveness. I'll use blunt instruments. Take your grain of salt and dig in.

Basic question, does a bigger difference between the two pitches correlate to effectiveness? Or is it simply the quality of the pitch itself? The answer is complicated. There are so many factors, and I'm using aggregated pitches (by start). But, to make a long story short...

The fastball basically thrives off of its own velocity. Faster fastballs yield more swings, more whiffs, and more swings out of the strike zone. The bigger the gap between the fastball and change-up speed, the more swings out of the zone, too. And more whiffs.

In other words, when Harden throws harder, he'll get more whiffs and swings out of the strike zone. Having a good separation in the change-up in terms of speed will increase the number of chases and the number of whiffs.

There is only one place where a bigger difference in movement seems to help either pitch. More whiffs on change-ups when the difference in movement is larger. The relationship is weak, however.

By these measures, Harden's effectiveness is keyed, to some degree, by the speed of his fastball. With his four-seamer, the harder he throws the more it "rises." It also separates more from the change-up and makes that pitch harder to hit.

While Rich seemed to get away with less velocity in his most recent start, this makes me doubt that's something he can continue to get away with.

In addition to the weaknesses of this method of analyzing pitches and their effectiveness (in terms of precision), there's something else to keep in mind. Harden is a very effective pitcher always. We're talking shades of good to great, no matter what. I'll take him at 90 mph over just about anyone else at 95 mph.

Here's one more blunt tool: Game Score compared to the same measurements used above. Like everything else I've looked at, their is a positive correlation. No matter what variable, it went up when any factor went up.

In general, there were plenty of instances that prove otherwise, so there is no certainty anywhere. It's a cloud, with the exception of the few items I mentioned above.

For what it's worth, Game Score doesn't correlate strongly with anything here.

Cubs Still Involved in Playoff Races

Harry Pavlidis — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 10:15:59 -0400

As the season enters its final week, the playoff races are still cooking. With the only battle in the AL that has real meaning isolated in the Central, the NL mixes it up quite a bit more. As a result, the 2008 NLC Champions won't be taking this week completely off.

American League

The White Sox are three ahead of the Twins in the loss column with seven games left to play, so just about anything can happen. The Twins host a three game set with the Sox this week.

The Angels finished up the West back in early May, if I recall correctly. Their lead is more than the other five division leads combined.

The AL Wild Card is still undecided. The Yankees are as close to elimination as you can get, but the Rays and the Red Sox are still battling for the East title. The consolation price will be a Wild Card spot, whatever the outcome.

National League

The Central has been put to bed by the Cubs. Only the Brewers remain in the playoff hunt amongst the also-rans.

Out West, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks continue to battle for King of Mediocrity. The Dodgers have a 1.5 game lead at the moment. Neither team should be taken too lightly, the Dodgers have some good hitters and a smidgen of pitching, while the Arizona club has two or three quality starters, if you include Randy Johnson.

In the East, the Phillies and the Mets both have the edge over their Wild Card rival Brewers, but there isn't a guaranteed consolation price in the Senior Circuit. The Phils cling to a 1.5 game lead entering Monday's games.

The Cubs in the Mix

As we all know, Saturday's win over the Cardinals ended the Central race. Still, the Cubs are in the thick of things.

The Cubs need just one win this week, or a loss by Philadelphia, to clinch home field advantage for the first two playoff rounds. While that's a foregone conclusion, the Cubs will be right in the middle of some unfinished business.

With four games against the Mets, and three against the Brewers, the Cubs owe it to both clubs to compete evenly in all seven games. No one will quibble some short starts or days off, but no one, including Lou Piniella, wants to see the 4-A team from Sunday.

Plenty of Baseball For Cubs Fans Saturday, Even With Ike

Harry Pavlidis — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 05:59:36 -0400

Hurricane Ike postponed, and moved, the Cubs/Astros games the past two days, but there certainly wasn't a lack of great baseball to enjoy. Thanks to mlb.tv (now letting you choose home/away broadcasts) I was able to see some great stuff Saturday.

There wasn't much else to do, as Chicago picked-up nearly seven inches of rain, overflowing rivers and flooding streets, basements and garages all over town.

Francisco Rodriquez picked up his 58th save, breaking Bobby Thigpen's record. In the post-game, on-field, celebration, Mike Scioscia embraced K-Rod. Watching that scene reminded me of how dangerous the Angels are in the post-season.

They dominated a weak division, and aren't the most impressive team in the AL by any stretch. But they have some critical pieces in place (pitching) and an NL style manager. Scioscia was Tommy Lasorda's catcher for two World Series winning Dodger teams, and caught for old Tommy's club for over 13 seasons.

Tim Lincecum had his first complete game shutout, but it took nearly 140 pitches. I watched in amazement as he was left in for the 8th and 9th innings. His velocity was still there, but that's a lot of pitches. I hope the Giants don't kill this kid, he's incredible. And we've seen this before.

Every time I look, the Reds are doing something in the 9th inning. At least it isn't the Cubs being victimized anymore. Francisco Cordero picked up save No. 30 for Cincinnati while knocking the Diamondbacks even further back of the Dodgers (who beat the Rockies).

The Dodgers are going to make it to LA teams, both coming out of ugly divisions. Want to win baseball games? Go West.

Probably the best part of the game was ex-Dback Micah Owings driving in the winning run with a pinch-hit double. The pitcher/slugger just joined the Reds as the last piece of the Adam Dunn trade.

The Phillies beat the Brewers, closing the gap in the NL Wild Card to just two games. Ned Yost is probably going the way of his Triple-A manager, who was fired after his season ended. And the Cardinals lost to the Pirates again. Their improbable run is ending, as they slip further behind the Astros, settling into 4th place in the NL Central.

Talking about the Astros, the Cubs finally face them tonight. Miller Park will host the clubs for a night game Sunday and a day game Monday. In the unlikely event it is necessary, the 3rd game of the series will be played in Houston on Sept. 29.

Worst case scenario for the Cubs—after three games in Milwaukee at the end of the schedule, there could be the make-up game in Houston, followed by a tie-breaker with the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Cubs' Magic Number is 10, and it could be five by Monday or Tuesday, so the worst case isn't a likely case.

Cubs Lose in 9th, but Marshall Does Job in Place of Zambrano

Harry Pavlidis — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 14:40:35 -0400

Carlos Zambrano's shoulder problems forced Sean Marshall to stay in the rotation for a second turn. This had cost the Cubs, as noted by the Sun Times, when Marshall's absence in the pen played into Jon Lieber being left in to face Jay Bruce on Friday.

Bruce hit a grand slam off Lieber and the Reds rolled on to stomp the Cubs. Don't blame Lieber, or Lou or Zambrano. Ted Lilly had only lasted two innings.

The Cubs got their Marshall's worth on Sunday, as Sean turned in six solid innings on 103 pitches. After Marshall had wrapped up the bottom half of the 6th, his teammates were given a chance to score when Aaron Harang hit the first two batters to come up in the 7th.

Geovany Soto and Mark DeRosa made Harang pay for their bruises, as both came around to score. DeRosa was plated on a sacrifice fly by Mike Fontenot, who was hitting for Sean Marshall.

With Marshall in line for the win, Kerry Wood blew the save when Ronny Cedeno mishandled a potential game-ending double-play ball. Cedeno entered the game when Ryan Theriot departed ("under the weather"), and went 1-for-2 with an RBI. A walk-off single followed Cedeno's error, sending the Cubs off with a 2-1 series defeat in Cincinnati.

Mark DeRosa set yet another career high, with 8 HBP for the season. He's also posted career best totals in home runs, RBI, runs, sacrifice flies, walks, stolen bases and matched his career best in triples. He's just 12 short of his career mark for total bases, and 21 hits and 3 strikeouts.

Ray Durham a Brewer

Harry Pavlidis — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:58:00 -0400

Ray Durham goes from San Francisco to Milwaukee, in exchange for cash and prospects, details pending per WGN radio. No word on any other Bay Area players (cough...Huston Street...cough) at this time.

Durham and Jack Taschner have been subject of gone-to-Milwaukee rumors for a couple of days now, but the relief pitcher apparently was not part of the deal. Just 20 minutes before the mention on Cubs' pre-game, MLB.com said Taschner could still be included, and mentioned Darren Ford and Steve Hammond as part of the package going to San Francisco.

A former member of the White Sox, Durham has a career .787 OPS and is actually over that number so far in 2008. It is more OBP than SLG, as Ray has just three home runs this year. He's also walking a bit more than both 2007 and career numbers.

Hey, wow, the Cubs just hit two straight doubles. I must be watching a re-run.

Rickie Weeks has been the everyday second baseman for Milwaukee, with Craig Counsell as back-up. Weeks has made 77 of 97 starts for the Brewers. Rickie has an OPS+ of just 82, which is put to shame by Durham's 112. Still, it is hard to imagine Durham making a major difference.

Chicago-Cincinnatti: Zambrano Leads Cubs to Win

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 06 May 2008 22:10:00 -0400

Driving home from the office, I listened to the pregame on WGN Radio. Lou Piniella is clearly unhappy about the defense he's got on the field. He has been talking about it since Spring Training, but it hasn't materialized. Lou expected "these guys to catch the ball", but they haven't. Clearly bothered by it, he promised today to put guys out there who can catch the ball.

Lou is going to try and fix it, but he's also realistic. "I can't do it at every position, but I'll do it as much as I can."

I think that means Alfonso Soriano is what he is. Get over it. Even Derrek Lee had an error today, but no one is worried about him, despite the recent pile-up of E3s on the scoreboard.

Ronny Cedeno got the start in place of Mike Fontenot, while Mark DeRosa was given a day off, and Aramis Ramirez returned to the lineup. Too bad Ronny blew a force out, and possible double-play ball, on a poor throw to Theriot. Sound familiar, Fontenot?

Still, Cedeno's appearance today doesn't bode well for Fontenot, or DeRosa for that matter. Ronny made up for his fielding gaffe by contributing at the plate. Ronny's a lucky dude this year, and upped his RBI total from 16 to 18.

Carlos Zambrano pitched eight solid innings, and Kerry Wood looked like the good Kerry Wood. The 10th Anniversary Edition to be precise. OK, not that good, but he gave up nothing but a bunt single.

Rubber match-up tomorrow. Edinson Volquez for the Reds, and Jon Lieber officially takes over Rich Hill's spot—for now. I'm listening to the I-Cubs game now, and they just rattled off the starting pitchers for the next few nights. I think I heard Kevin Hart, but not Hill.

Cubs Drop Another Series, but Bullpen Is Fresh

Harry Pavlidis — Sun, 04 May 2008 23:19:00 -0400

Despite Rich Hill's disastrous two-thirds of an inning start on Friday, the Cubs' bullpen is actually in good shape heading to Cincinnati.

Thanks to Jon Lieber's three-and-two-thirds innings on Friday, and Carlos Marmol's two innings on Saturday, the whole bullpen was available for Sunday night's finale. Except Marmol, for obvious reasons.

Even though Jason Marquis was wild and not very effective, he did make it into the sixth inning. Sean Marshall cleaned up that inning, and Sean Gallagher worked the last two frames before the Cubs were retired in the ninth, trailing by two.

Jon Lieber has moved into the rotation, and will get a start against the Reds. Look for Gallagher to continue to hold down the long-relief spot, while Scott Eyre's impending return could shuffle things around some more. Marshall or Gallagher stand to lose their roster spot.

Eyre has worked three shut-out innings in relief for the Tennessee Smokies. Allowing just one hit and striking out three, he's been able to work a full inning each time out. Today's outing came in the eighth inning of a 5-4 loss to the Jacksonville Suns.

Heading into Cincinnati, the Cubs are going to face Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang, and Edinson Volquez.

The first two games will be under the lights, with Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano going for the Cubs. Lieber is slated to face Volquez in the matinée on getaway day.

The Cubs miss out on Matt Belisle and Bronson Arroyo. Actually, Belisle could be gone by his next turn—and Homer Bailey could be the next piece of the Reds' youth movement. Jay Bruce, anyone?

Johnny Cueto has been crashing back to earth. The Cubs will need to make hay against the struggling rookie tomorrow before hitting the meat grinder on Tuesday.

Harang is far better than his 1-4 record would indicate (but you know better than to even pay attention to W/L, right?). The staff ace is still giving up less than one home run per nine innings, and has a spiffy 41:11 K:BB ratio in 48-and-one-third innings.

Volquez is just a few months short of 25 years, and has dominated since arriving in the Josh Hamilton deal. Yes, the Cubs are to blame for this guy being in their own division. He started to look a little better last year (he got just 20 games under his belt, three in relief, in his first three seasons), but is killing the NL in 2008.

I'll get down to PITCHf/x stuff tomorrow evening. Doug Gray has all sorts of Reds f/x stuff, including a recent post on a changeup featured by Volquez.

April's Dirt: Cubs Pitchers and Hitters

Harry Pavlidis — Sun, 04 May 2008 00:37:00 -0400

Here's a nibblet of information on pitches in the dirt. Seen by, or thrown by, Cubs players. I don't use the "in dirt" description, but a pz value less than 0.

last	pitches	dirt	dirt%	swings
Wood	146	2	1.37	1
Wuertz	222	3	1.35	0
Dempster	588	4	0.68	0
Zambrano	585	4	0.68	1
Marquis	460	3	0.65	0
Howry	220	1	0.45	0
Lilly	540	2	0.37	0
Hart	302	1	0.33	0
Hill	308	1	0.32	1
Marmol	280	0	0.00	0
Lieber	193	0	0.00	0
Marshall	87	0	0.00	0
Pignatiello	25	0	0.00	0
	3956	21	0.53	3

Now the hitters. Notice the only dirt-ball chasers are, well, the two guys you'd guess it would be.

last	pitches	dirt	dirt%	swings
Fontenot	177	4	2.26	0
Soriano	201	4	1.99	2
Cedeno	213	4	1.88	0
Ward	110	2	1.82	0
Johnson	369	5	1.36	0
Pie	178	2	1.12	1
Soto	388	4	1.03	0
Fukudome	510	5	0.98	0
DeRosa	439	2	0.46	0
Ramirez	483	2	0.41	0
Theriot	390	1	0.26	0
Lee	501	1	0.20	0
Blanco	73	0	0.00	0
Murton	53	0	0.00	0
	4085	36	0.88	3

Kevin Hart Out-Foxed

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 02 May 2008 19:44:00 -0400

Chad Fox was recalled from Tennessee and Kevin Hart optioned out to Iowa, according to RotoWorld. Fox is a true reliever, so we're not going to waste Sean Gallagher in the bullpen. We may need Sean as a starter later this year. Although, RotoWorld seems to be saying they think Neal Cotts or Gallagher would be a better choice.

Scott Eyre was at Tennessee with Fox, and he'll stay in AA for now. We'll see moves Lou and Jim make next. Cubs and Cards get it on in a few minutes. I'll post some Adam Wainwright stuff during the game, along with some more PITCHf/x goodies from April. Rich Hill takes the ball for the Cubs.

Cubs in April: Pitch Speed

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 02 May 2008 00:47:00 -0400

A good April is a good April. May didn't start well, but that's another story.

Here are some PITCHf/x goodies. I'll post various items over the next few days.

Release points standardized to 55ft. Wrigley Field only, since the park-to-park differences are enough to make me cringe. I'll learn more about corrections to the data at the PITCHf/x Summit next weekend.

PFX is inches of spin movement from 40 ft to 1.417 ft. (home plate), other values are feet for release points and plate location. Degrees and Spin rate are also shown in some cases. Numbers subject to change if I find errors in my system. The mph going down the hundredths is questionable, the numbers aren't that precise.

Fastest Pitch - Cubs 2008 Home Games

            date     mph
Zambrano   03/31   97.07
Wood       04/18   96.98
Wood       04/06   96.97
Wood       04/18   96.96
Wood       03/31   96.96
Wood       04/18   96.86
Wood       04/06   96.71
Wood       04/06   96.66
Wood       04/18   96.51
Marmol     04/15   96.43

Only three guys topped 95

% of Pitches 95+ mph

               %
Wood         68.8
Marmol       15.5
Zambrano      3.4

Here's everyone for the next slot down, including two who didn't break 90

% of Pitches 90-94 mph

               %
Howry        57.6
Zambrano     50.0
Dempster     49.5
Hart         44.5
Marmol       40.9
Marquis      27.4
Wuertz       22.5
Wood         14.1
Hill         12.7
Marshall     10.3
Lilly         0.4
Lieber        0.0 (max=89.23 mph)
Pignatiello   0.0 (max=85.82 mph)

Slow stuff - just the top 3

% of Pitches 75-79 mph

               %
Pignatiello  82.4
Lilly        16.2
Hart          8.5

Slower stuff - just the top 3

% of Pitches 70-74 mph

               %
Hill         30.3
Marshall      6.9
Lilly         5.0

Slowest stuff - just the top 3 - the only 3

% of Pitches <70


Lilly         2.9 (min=57.98 mph)
Zambrano      1.6 (min=64.67 mph)
Hill          1.2 (min=69.49 mph)

Chicago Cubs Notes: Tom Gorzelanny Faces Jason Marquis, Matt Murton Recalled

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 00:19:00 -0400

I've looked at both Tom Gorzelanny and Jason Marquis in the past couple months. Hit the links if you want to see their stuff in PITCHf/x. Now, the news.....

Lots of Runs

The Cubs offense is riding high, scoring 3/4 a run more than the NL average per game. The pitching and defense have been below average, and it shows in the box scores.

Revolving Door

Facing the south-paw Gorzelanny, the Cubs will use Reed Johnson as the lead-off hitter. That will make him the third different lead-off hitter since Soriano was hurt - and the third in three days.

Reed has hit lead-off 354 times in his career, and has been effective, and/or has been used there when effective.

Murton Recalled
Scout.com has broken and confirmed that Matt Murton's last minute scratch from the Iowa@New Orleans game was indeed due to his call-up.

Look for Matt to get the start in left, with erstwhile outfielder Mark DeRosa bumping Mike Fontenot to the bench as he returns to the infield. Eric Patterson is a likely candidate for a demotion, but, if I were Felix Pie, I'd be shutting off my phone.

Toronto Blue Jays Return Randy Wells to the Chicago Cubs

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 19:39:00 -0400

Rule V draftee Randy Wells was sent back to the Cubs today after clearing waivers.

The Blue Jays had hoped to keep Wells but were unable to work out a deal with the Cubs.

The Cubs must like him.

He got one inning of work for Toronto, so let's take a look.

Randy faced the Red Sox at home, and the roof was closed. It was the 9th inning of a blow-out. The Jays won 10-2. Due up to face Wells were Crisp, Lugo and Pedroia. He had to face David Ortiz after walking Pedroia on four pitches, but got him to ground out.

According to MLB.com, Randy threw 10 fastballs, one slider and one change. I agree, although one fastball, his first pitch, looks a little like a two seamer. I doubt it, it could just be a glitch, besides the fact it was his first Big League appearance.

Here's his spin movement chart, along with MPH for each pitch

Here are plate locations - notice Mr. 89 (the first pitch he threw) was waaaay outside to Coco Crisp (who was hitting lefty against Wells).

Up Next: Ian Snell preview, as the Cubs prepare for a three game set against the Pirates, at Wrigley Field

Chicago Cubs-Cincinnati Reds: Mid-Game Update

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 21:06:00 -0400

We're almost half-way through tonight's game, and the Cubs are down a run and a player.

Alfonso Soriano strained his right calf on a routine fly-ball-third out in the first inning. Mike Fontenot hit lead-off after Soriano was helped to the clubhouse. Mark DeRosa replaced him in left and Fontenot stayed in at second base.

DeRosa hit a two-run homer that gave the Cubs the lead, but Ken Griffey Jr. came right back with a two-run shot of his own. Junior's homer was the 595th of his career. Not sure how many DeRosa has, offhand, but I think it is less than Griffey's total.

Ryan Dempster is pitching OK, but not great. His control isn't as sharp as his first two starts, but he's in the game, and the wind is blowing straight out. Or so it seems on the radio.

Also, Corey Patterson flew out to Felix Pie. Much to my relief, this proves that they are not the same person.

Back in February I fretted about Sori's leg(s). If he gets DL'd, I suspect a lot of Matt Murton fans will come back out of the woodwork.

Like me, for one.

Chicago Cubs Pitching Staff: Thinking about Release Points

Harry Pavlidis — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 17:16:00 -0400

I've been looking at a way to get at arm angle and location on the rubber via PITCHf/x. I've added height to my database, just for the Cubs at the moment, to help put some stuff together.

When looking at release points, I want to just look at height of pitcher vs. release height (z0). For now, that is, as I'm trying to see if I can get some basic groupings that way.

To avoid noisy data, I'm only aggregating pitches that are fast enough to not have the high release on some curveballs. Yes, that is quick-and-dirty. A real run requires proper pitch IDs and corrected release points.

For this quick-and-dirty trial, with just Cubs, I only look where y0=50, start_speed > 80 and only at games played at Wrigley Field.

There is game-to-game noise there, but, to avoid the correction effort, I'm assuming the fluctuations are roughly the same across each player (not likely, given the varied sample sizes). Lazy.

For what it's worth, I think it shakes out pretty well as a first pass.

Here's the same thing, but the bubbles are now sized according to the distance from the middle of the rubber (x0)—righties usually have negative numbers (which is left from catcher's view, naturally), so those sizes are based on absolute values.

Using these charts as a "guide," here's what you can estimate—actually, just from the first chart:

The Guys Who Throw Overhand

Ted Lilly
Sean Marshall

Three-fourths, at Varying Degrees (going from more overhand to more sidearm)

Jason Marquis
Rich Hill
Scott Eyre
Jon Lieber
Ryan Dempster
Michael Wuertz
Carmen Pignatiello
Kevin Hart

A Lower Arm Slot, Lower Than Three-fourths

Carlos Zambrano
Even lower
Bob Howry
Kerry Wood

Getting Sideways

Carlos Marmol

Things that can mess this up, not already mentioned, include pitching style (more or less aggressive leg drive) and posture, presumably.

Well, something is messed up, but I think it gets pretty close to the target. More information (e.g. x0 values) and more, cleaner, data are needed to make any real sense out of this.

If it starts to approximate reality as I tune and improve, I can try and incorporate it into pitch identification and plotting.

So, I hope you've enjoyed today's edition of Thinking Out Loud.

Chicago Cubs Escape Philadelphia, Avoid Sweep

Harry Pavlidis — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 18:06:00 -0400

In their third extra-inning game of the road trip, Kerry Wood threw two shutout innings for the win.

The umpires, with a generous fair call on Mark DeRosa's home run, helped out. In the end, it was Chase Utley's throwing error that made the difference.

Jason Marquis threw five innings, managing to keep the team in the game despite walking five, hitting one batter, and unleashing one wild pitch.

Michael Wuertz gave up three runs without retiring a single batter to blow the save. The last time he had such a bad inning was July 8, 2005. The Cubs also won that game.

Derrek Lee had three hits, two RBI, and a slick play to save the game in the ninth inning. He snagged a Carlos Ruiz grounder for the unassisted put-out, with two out and the winning run on second base.

Off-day tomorrow, then the Reds for three.

Chicago-Cincinnati: Cubs Return Home to Face Reds

Harry Pavlidis — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 17:55:00 -0400

After a six game, seven day swing through Pennsylvania, the Cubs start a three game series against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday.

The first two home night games of the season will kick off the homestand. The Pirates and the Mets are up next.

For the next few days, I'll have a chance to focus on the Cubs' PITCHf/x numbers, as Doug Gray at Reds Pitch f/x has the Reds well covered.

Here are some links to the Reds' probable pitchers.

Aaron Harang—one of the best, and most under-rated pitchers in the National League.

Josh Fogg—the former Pirate and Rockie has a mixed record against the Cubs.

Edinson Volquez—a quality young starter, came over in the Josh Hamilton trade with Texas.

Check out Doug's blog, and this update on our man Corey Patterson.

Cubs-Phillies: Chicago Looks to Bounce Back Against Phillies' Jamie Moyer

Harry Pavlidis — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 02:08:00 -0400

With just a few hours to recover from a rough beating at the hands of Cole Hamels, the Cubs need a win Sunday to turn the season's first road trip into a winning one.

After sweeping the Pirates, the Cubs have been limited to just four runs, while Ted Lilly and Rich Hill struggled in their outings at Citizens Bank Park. The two nights in Philly have not been pleasant for the visitors.

Sunday, the Cubs have their first day game since Monday's PNC home opener. Jason Marquis will face veteran Jamie Moyer, who was a Cub before color TV was invented.

Moyer throws five pitches, each one is slower than the last. His fastballs won't blow your doors off, that's for sure. But at this point, it's like golf. If Jamie keeps his fastball's top speed below his age, people buy him drinks after the game.

The Cubs did poorly against Hamels' straight change today, but Moyer's isn't truly straight, like Hamels'. In terms of effectiveness and outcomes, Moyer does his damage with it, too.

cfx	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
F4	46	16	1	15	10	1	89
F2	45	17	9	14	32	1	118
CH	39	22	25	23	26	2	137
SL	62	37	7	25	27	1	159
CU	16	14	3	7	6	0	46
	208	106	45	84	101	5	549

cfx	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
F4	51.7%	18.0%	1.1%	16.9%	11.2%	1.1%	16.2%
F2	38.1%	14.4%	7.6%	11.9%	27.1%	0.8%	21.5%
CH	28.5%	16.1%	18.2%	16.8%	19.0%	1.5%	25.0%
SL	39.0%	23.3%	4.4%	15.7%	17.0%	0.6%	29.0%
CU	34.8%	30.4%	6.5%	15.2%	13.0%	0.0%	8.4%
	37.9%	19.3%	8.2%	15.3%	18.4%	0.9%

cfx	SwRt	WhiffRt	B:CS
F4	30.3%	3.7%	2.9
F2	47.5%	16.1%	2.6
CH	55.5%	32.9%	1.8
SL	37.7%	11.7%	1.7
CU	34.8%	18.8%	1.1
	42.8%	19.1%	2.0

Cubs Facing Phillies' Pitcher Cole Hamels on Saturday

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 22:26:00 -0400

Cole Hamels, one of the best young pitchers in the game, will try and give the Phillies a second straight win against the Cubs. Using over 800 pitches from July 2007 thru last week, I'm able to pick out three pitches in the PITCHf/x data. More than half of what he throws are fastballs, around 90mph, touching 95 on occasion (if you believe the data). 32% of his pitches are the change-up, which is a nasty pitch, and the rest curves.

There was a lot of noise from park-to-park, and Philly looks messed-up this year. I haven't looked at the Friday night game at this writing, but I will before Hamels takes the hill tomorrow against Ted Lilly.

	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
CH	77	41	58	36	55	1
CU	49	28	14	11	25	0
FA	131	88	29	109	79	3

	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
CH	28.7%	15.3%	21.6%	13.4%	20.5%	0.4%
CU	38.6%	22.0%	11.0%	8.7%	19.7%	0.0%
FA	29.8%	20.0%	6.6%	24.8%	18.0%	0.7%

	Swing Rate	Whiff Rate	B:CS
CH	56.0%	38.7%	1.9
CU	39.4%	28.0%	1.8
FA	50.1%	13.2%	1.5

Spin Movement chart:

larger

ESPN's scouting report shows the same three pitches and Gameday 2008 agrees with the these pitch IDs, with one exception. Gameday gave an FC to less than 10 pitches in his 4/2/08 start, but that one game had to be adjusted a few inches. So, I'll see if there's more of those in 2008 (e.g. new pitch from '07) after/during tomorrow's game. Also, ESPN says he throws a slider to LHH 1% of the time, but, otherwise, they list the same three pitches. Fangraphs matches ESPN, too.

Should be a tough match-up for the Cubs tomorrow. Forecast indicates around 70°, windy with some rain showers possible.

Chicago Cubs Not Quite as Ready for Phillies as I Thought

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 21:41:00 -0400

The Jimmy Rollins-less Phillies were too much to handle. Brett Myers pitched very well Friday, despite yielding gopher balls to Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano. Carlos Zambrano took the loss in six so-so innings of work.

The good news is that he only allowed one walk. The bad news is that he gave up nine hits. Even worse, he gave up three doubles and a homer.

The stark lack of walks, compared to the past two seasons in particular, is a nice change of pace. We'll see if that continues, since he's been on a roller coaster with his command before.

Felix Pie appears to be riding pine. I didn't hear the pre-game with manager Lou Piniella, so I only know that he sat Friday, while Ward and Fukudome rotated from bench-to-right-to-center.

With two lefties coming up, and a Kosuke off day tomorrow, Pie still won't play, as Reed Johnson will get the nod Saturday. Reed Johnson pinch hit against a righty with Felix on the bench during Friday's game.

Rotoworld mentions Pie's sore hand, but I'm not sure that's still the issue, directly. He may not be in his rhythm for a variety of reasons, beyond the wrist. His spring was interrupted a couple times, as we are all painfully aware, and he's hitting in front of the pitcher.

Rob at TCR thinks Murton is due back up, with Felix heading to Iowa.

"As for Felix Pie, let's say I wouldn't be too surprised if he gets sent down soon and Matt Murton gets called up. Reed Johnson would take over full-time CF duties, Murton would roam the outfield and Kosuke would probably be the CF backup, much like he's doing tonight."

It is possible and, while Ward was roaming right field, I wondered how much better a team we'd have with Matt out there tomorrow, instead of DeRosa. At least for now.

If Felix can learn the strike zone, he'll be just fine. He's still very young, but he certainly isn't making a positive impact at the moment, outside of his defense.

During the WGN radio broadcast, Pat mentioned Doug Davis, who had his cancerous thyroid removed today. With the successful surgery behind him, Davis will return home in a day.

He plans on coming back to pitch at Wrigley in early May. That's great news. I hope he heals quickly and adjusts to the medications well. Get well soon.

I'm working on Cole Hamels for a later post. He'll face Ted Lilly tomorrow.

Jason Marquis Set to Pitch Sunday; Cubs Ready for Phillies Tonight

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 18:58:00 -0400

In an article from MLB.com on Jamie Moyer's longevity, Jason Marquis is listed as Sunday's starter. I'm glad to hear Jason's feeling better and that no emergency starter is needed.

Fukudome is playing center and batting 2nd tonight against Brett Meyers, who I quickly previewed last night. Daryle Ward gets the nod in right.

It may rain, which the Cubs don't need at all. A long outing by Zambrano is in order, after the short night for Hill and the two long extra-inning games in Pittsburgh.

MLB's Most Impressive Curves

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 23:25:00 -0400

In Effective Curves, I looked at the best curveballs in terms of actual effectiveness. This time, it's impressive curveballs, the ones with the biggest drop or sweep.

I'm going to dump a lot of data on ya here, so hold on tight.

First the tables. Note the three Cubs lefty starters in the pfx_z (drop ball) group. If you're reading this on Cubs f/x, you can click and sort the columns.

For each group, I picked just the guys with curveballs that had either pfx_x or pfx_z of 8.5 inches or more. In the data below, everything is converted to positive numbers, so lefty and right curves break the same way, and the normally negative numbers for the pfx_z are positive. There are 15 in the Yakker group, 16 in the Sweeper group. Only submariner Chad Bradford appears on both groups. I think I'll re-visit him later. I really want to start getting at the pitch trajectory/arm angle thing somehow. You may have noticed some charts that included pitcher height with release points plotted, but I digress.....

Yakkers

first	last	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	#	#	Sw	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR	HR%	SwRt	Whiff%	B:CS
Rich	Hill	73	7.6	8.5	311	311	120	107	84	28	57	35	0	0.0%	38.6%	23.3%	1.3
Brett	Myers	79	6.6	9.5	158	158	54	61	43	10	22	22	0	0.0%	34.2%	18.5%	1.4
Chad	Bradford	80	9.2	8.5	182	182	98	50	34	13	44	40	1	0.6%	53.9%	13.3%	1.5
Phil	Hughes	72	7.4	9.9	215	215	84	81	50	9	34	40	1	0.5%	39.1%	10.7%	1.6
Jason	Hammel	76	7.7	8.5	49	49	17	20	12	5	6	6	0	0.0%	34.7%	29.4%	1.7
Matt	Herges	75	6.3	8.5	78	78	25	35	18	6	5	14	0	0.0%	32.1%	24.0%	1.9
Tom	Shearn	69	3.8	10.1	59	59	26	22	11	4	8	13	1	1.7%	44.1%	15.4%	2.0
Rick	Vanden Hurk	71	6.6	9.5	34	34	6	19	9	2	1	3	0	0.0%	17.7%	33.3%	2.1
Adam	Wainwright	73	7.2	9.0	242	242	92	104	46	35	30	27	0	0.0%	38.0%	38.0%	2.3
Randy	Wolf	66	6.3	8.8	20	20	10	7	3	1	3	6	0	0.0%	50.0%	10.0%	2.3
Barry	Zito	70	1.7	11.1	135	135	59	55	21	7	20	29	3	2.2%	43.7%	11.9%	2.6
Ted	Lilly	71	4.7	9.3	241	241	93	111	37	17	35	40	1	0.4%	38.6%	18.3%	3.0
Doug	Davis	68	5.4	8.5	269	269	119	119	31	37	43	38	1	0.4%	44.2%	31.1%	3.8
Jason	Isringhausen	79	4.4	9.5	74	74	39	30	5	14	15	9	1	1.4%	52.7%	35.9%	6.0
Sean	Marshall	73	4.9	9.9	102	102	60	37	5	15	23	22	0	0.0%	58.8%	25.0%	7.4

Barry Zito is Mr. 12-to-6. Tom Shearn is a distant second, with less drop and more sweep. Zito is a freak.

Sweepers

first	last	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	#	#	Sw	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR	HR%	SwRt	Whiff%	B:CS
Eric	Gagne	70	9.1	6.3	80	80	28	28	24	8	10	10	0	0.0%	35.0%	28.6%	1.2
Chad	Bradford	80	9.2	8.5	182	182	98	50	34	13	44	40	1	0.6%	53.9%	13.3%	1.5
Javier	Lopez	81	10.1	3.9	96	96	48	29	19	6	20	22	0	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	1.5
Bronson	Arroyo	71	11.2	2.7	120	120	61	36	23	15	15	29	2	1.7%	50.8%	24.6%	1.6
Yorman	Bazardo	79	10.0	2.9	23	23	9	9	5	4	2	3	0	0.0%	39.1%	44.4%	1.8
Kane	Davis	81	8.8	3.5	32	32	9	15	8	2	4	3	0	0.0%	28.1%	22.2%	1.9
Andy	Sonnanstine	74	8.8	3.2	86	86	41	31	14	14	11	16	0	0.0%	47.7%	34.2%	2.2
Joe	Smith	85	10.3	2.9	55	55	28	19	8	5	13	10	0	0.0%	50.9%	17.9%	2.4
Sean	Green	88	9.3	3.3	287	287	131	112	44	19	62	50	0	0.0%	45.6%	14.5%	2.5
Matt	Belisle	75	9.0	2.9	89	89	34	40	15	11	15	8	0	0.0%	38.2%	32.4%	2.7
Jay	Marshall	81	11.7	3.8	203	203	93	80	30	6	46	41	0	0.0%	45.8%	6.5%	2.7
Casey	Janssen	78	8.9	6.0	66	66	32	25	9	9	11	11	1	1.5%	48.5%	28.1%	2.8
Vinnie	Chulk	80	8.8	2.6	23	23	11	9	3	4	3	4	0	0.0%	47.8%	36.4%	3.0
Jamey	Wright	75	10.0	6.1	88	88	22	50	16	8	6	8	0	0.0%	25.0%	36.4%	3.1
Royce	Ring	72	9.3	3.2	71	71	24	36	11	10	5	9	0	0.0%	33.8%	41.7%	3.3
Matt	Morris	71	8.8	6.9	245	245	82	47	24	40	50	2	0	0.8%	47.4%	20.7%	1.7

As promised, today's Victim of the Occasionally Active Cubs' Bats, Matt Morris, makes the cut.

Here are a bunch of line graphs - each one sorted by a particular stat, to show the best-to-least for each group. There are a couple interesting things, and I'll have to go back and look at this across the whole population, not just one extreme or another. And re-evaluate the methodology.

MPH

pfx_z (vertical spin movement - drop caused by spin beyond the effects of gravity and trajectory)

pfx_x (horizontal spin movement)

Swing Rate

Whiff Rate

Balls to CS Ratio

In this last one, Sean Marshall and Jason Isringhausen are the outliers. They do have very high swing rates, too.

Cubs-Pirates: Chicago Goes for the Sweep Against Matt Morris

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 09:25:00 -0400

Cubs take on Pittsburgh for what I can only hope will be a nine inning game. The first two games covered 27 innings and a lot of, shall we say, interesting baseball. Up two to none, the Cubs go for the sweep against Matt Morris.

He throws fastball, slider and curve, plus the occasional change. It is dead on the fastball, movement-wise, but a few MPH slower.

cfx	pfx_x	pfx_z	mph	SpinDir	SpinRate
FA	-9	7	87	231	1419
SL	2	3	81	145	436
CU	8	-8	71	224	1055
CH	-9	7	80	236	1225

Morris' curve, at 8.8 pfx_x, is the 16th biggest sweeper I have in my database. The avearge horizontal spin movement on a curveball is 5.4 in., with a handful of players in double-digits. More on those impressive curveballs later. The real impressive ones are the big 12-to-6 yakkers, like Zito's. Three Cub lefties will show-up on that list.

Chicago Cubs: Marquis Ill, Marshall Up, Piggy Down

Harry Pavlidis — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 18:47:00 -0400

Marquis may not make his start tomorrow, so Hill is on call. It is not his turn, but it is his fifth day. Marshall is up to take his spot, if needed. Carmen Pignatiello was sent down to make room. Lou claims it isn't performance related.

Same lineup today, Reed in center.

Update: Marshall is working from the 'pen and isn't expected to start. He mentioned that he can throw 75 pitches if needed, so he is available for an emergency spot start or long relief appearance.

Chicago Cubs Inherit Earth

Harry Pavlidis — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 23:22:00 -0400

Really, Evan Meek gave it up.

The Cubs drew 11 free passes in 12 innings. That's just one less than Neifi Perez drew in all of 2006 and 2007 (387 PA).

Then Evan Meek gave up five all by himself, along with two wild pitches. That was enough to get two runs across without a hit. Cubs win.

Talking about walks, Carmen Pignatiello threw 8 pitches, and all missed the zone. He was yanked after those two walks.

As seen in the past, Carmen throws a fastball, change and a breaking ball.

You can check out the PITCHf/x data on MLB.TV.

Jon Lieber pitched the ninth, 10th and 11th innings to get his first win since putting the Cubs uniform back on, though he did give up two walks and two doubles in the process.

Whatever Matt Sinatro did with Geovany before Sunday's game worked. Geovany threw out two base runners, two very fast base runners who usually do not get caught.

Soto managed to get two guys who had combined career totals of 43 stolen bases in 48 attempts. Make that 50 attempts. Soto improves to two for nine on the year.

Tuesday is an off day. Ryan Dempster and Zach Duke are scheduled to start on Wednesday night.

For career numbers against Duke, click the link for his PITCHf/x data.

Ronny Cedeno, anyone? Hey Lou, give Theriot another day off tomorrow. I'll take Ronny's seven singles over what Theriot has done against Duke.

cfx	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
F4	46	16	1	15	10	1	89
F2	45	17	9	14	32	1	118
CH	39	22	25	23	26	2	137
SL	62	37	7	25	27	1	159
CU	16	14	3	7	6	0	46
	208	106	45	84	101	5	549

cfx	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
F4	46	16	1	15	10	1	89
F2	45	17	9	14	32	1	118
CH	39	22	25	23	26	2	137
SL	62	37	7	25	27	1	159
CU	16	14	3	7	6	0	46
	208	106	45	84	101	5	549

cfx	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
F4	46	16	1	15	10	1	89
F2	45	17	9	14	32	1	118
CH	39	22	25	23	26	2	137
SL	62	37	7	25	27	1	159
CU	16	14	3	7	6	0	46
	208	106	45	84	101	5	549