Bleacher Report - Articles by Randy Garcia

Does Brock Lesnar's Illness Hurt The UFC?

Randy Garcia — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:44:11 -0400

The very name of the man is a powerful and polarizing force in the MMA world.

Critics of Lesnar point to his inexperience and lack of technical skill. They would say his post-fight interview after beating Frank Mir, a WWE-style rant, is an example of his unprofessional attitude.

Fans of Lesnar point to his brute strength, wrestling ability and dominating performances.

Half of any crowd watching his fights wants to see him lose while the other half wants to see him dominate. Either way, the heavyweight champion is one of the biggest draws in the UFC.

The news that broke over the weekend, on the heels of the very successful UFC 104 pay-per-view, that Lesnar would withdraw from UFC 106 because of illness came as a huge surprise to MMA fans. But what does it really mean for the UFC?

Right now, the UFC is enjoying a dominant position in MMA. Most of the best fighters according to every recognized ranking system are fighting in the UFC.

The true cost of the Brock Lesnar withdrawal will be its effect on the UFC 106 pay-per-view. The polarization Lesnar's presence causes along with his WWE fan base translates into big draws.

The Forest Griffen versus Tito Ortiz match promises to be gory, but little else. The new co-main event, Josh Koscheck versus Anthony “Rumble” Johnson, may end up being a very entertaining match though neither name will draw any but the UFC faithful. UFC 106 could end up being a pretty good event, but not the highest grossing.

This also happens to be a year when UFC events are crushing other sporting pay-per-views. (The exception to that rule was UFC 103, one of the weakest UFC cards. It did not manage to accumulate more buys than the Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Juan Manuel Marquez fight that occurred the same night.)

UFC 106 will occur on the same night Manny Pacquiao fights Miguel Angel Cotto. There is a strong likelihood that UFC 106 will struggle as UFC 103 did. It'll be a successful pay-per-view instead of one that is enormously successful. (We should all struggle like that.)

The UFC's biggest advantage is that it has a stable of champions and contenders that no one else can match.

Brock Lesnar is just one of several dominant champions like Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida, Georges St. Pierre and BJ Penn. In fact, Lesnar is the only champion in the UFC that isn't ranked as the world's top fighter in his weight class.

Where else is an MMA fan going to go?

What to Expect From the 2009-2010 Los Angeles Lakers

Randy Garcia — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 15:54:19 -0400

No team has higher expectations for this coming season than the Los Angeles Lakers. Fresh off of last season's NBA Championship, the Lakers made only one significant change from last year.

Everybody knows about the Lakers' stars, here are the reasons the Lakers will be an even better team this year.

Artest for Ariza

The most obvious difference in this year's Laker team will be the play of Ron Artest. The small forward spot was occupied last year by a quick, athletic Trevor Ariza whose focus on team defense resulted in turnovers and often complete disruption of the opponents' offensive schemes.

Artest is a much better individual defender who won't be in the passing lanes as much as Ariza was but will stifle the opposing wing scorer on the outside and whose strength in the post will prevent even strong post players like Carmelo Anthony from having much success down low.

Expect fewer turnovers and transition baskets as Artest does not have the kind of court speed and quickness that Ariza brought to the table. This will be more than made up for by Artest's superior half court offensive skills.

Artest will struggle early in the season as he makes a transition from primary scorer to third or fourth option. During his career Ron Artest has had seasons when he has shot as high as .412 from the three-point line. In his role with the Lakers expect him to get a lot of open looks at threes as defenders collapse on Laker post scorers.

Bynum Breaks Out

The big story early in the season will be the play of Andrew Bynum. With few opponents his size to defend him Bynum will have a field day offensively with his usual array of turnarounds, hooks, and alley-oops. So far in the preseason he has been dominant inside.

Gasol just finished playing for Spain in the FIBA European Championships where he helped his team win a gold medal. The Lakers will go to Bynum early in the season to preserve Gasol for the last half of the season.

Andrew Bynum is a player whose offensive success will lift his overall game. The early season success he will have will earn him lots of key minutes late in the season and even in the playoffs as his defense improves.

The one key element in Bynum's success is going to be his ability to avoid injury. Two major knee injuries in two years are good reason to question Bynum's durability. The Lakers will be very careful with Bynum late in the season, possibly limiting him to 30 minutes a game to save wear and tear on his knees.

The Laker Bench

Last year the Laker bench scoring suffered severely as both Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic struggled with their shots. Lamar Odom's stellar play was the main reason the Laker bench still remained one of the best in the league while Luke Walton and Shannon Brown both provided steady play with an occasional flash of brilliance.

Mid-season acquisition Adam Morrison made little impact at all.

This year the Laker three point specialists Vujacic and Adam Morrison will look to redeem themselves.

Morrison has the misfortune to play behind Ron Artest, Luke Walton, and occasionally Lamar Odom. This is essentially Morrison's last chance to prove that he can make it as an NBA player but he will get few opportunities.

Look for him late in the first quarter of games early on. If he doesn't hit some shots when he is in he won't be on the floor by mid-season.

Sasha Vujacic can be valuable as a pesky defender but his true value is as a shooter. A streak shooter with a quick release, Vujacic can be a game changer. Unfortunately its been over a year since he has been hot. Vujacic will shoot early and often in the season and re-establish himself as a shooting option off the bench.

The most intriguing battle will be between backup guards Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown. Brown has a huge advantage being a better defender with good offensive skills. Farmar is a more natural point guard with better ball handling and passing skills but his poor defense can be a liability.

The competition between these two young guards for playing time will greatly benefit the Lakers. Both of them will see a lot of time as the aging Derek Fischer struggles to defend some of the quicker guards in the league.

While other contenders have tried to improve themselves through the addition of free agents and the draft, the Lakers are counting on the improving play of Andrew Bynum along with the resurgence of bench players like Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown.

The result for the Lakers will be a team that is even stronger inside than last year with devastating outside shooting from Artest and Vujacic. All of this is, of course, in addition to the incomparable play of Kobe Bryant whose game will open up even more as there will be no one to double off of.

With no serious rivals in the Pacific division and big questions surrounding the Spurs and Mavericks the Lakers will overwhelm the Western conference this year. Last year the Lakers finished the season with a record of 65-17. This year the Lakers will seriously threaten the NBA season best 72-10 record set by the Chicago Bulls in 1995-1996.

The Trade After Five Weeks

Randy Garcia — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 18:32:27 -0400

After an offseason full of sports pundits roundly criticizing every move the Denver Broncos made, a 5-0 start has finally silenced the critics. Most of the controversy in Denver has been replaced by the sheer joy of winning.

The few hardcore Bronco haters out there are reduced to mumbling drivel about luck and making excuses for the teams that should have beaten the Broncos and couldn't.

Only one argument has yet to be settled. Was Cutler for Orton really the trade of a franchise quarterback for a mediocre quarterback?

The numbers say some interesting things about the trade.

Kyle Orton has quietly moved into a seventh place ranking among quarterbacks in the NFL ahead of such notables as Favre, Rivers, Romo, and Flacco. Meanwhile Jay Cutler's 25^th place ranking has him keeping company with the likes of Byron Leftwich and Matt Cassel according to Football Outsiders.

Given the criticism of Orton, that he has a weak arm and only throws short passes, one would expect Cutler, well known for his more powerful arm and deep passes, should have a higher yards per attempt. Instead, it is Orton whose yards per attempt stands at 7.49 while Cutler's is 6.98.

Cutler's 89.3 quarterback rating equally suffers next to Orton's 97.4 rating. Cutler's 901 yards through four games compares to Orton's 906 yards on his first four, but Orton had no interceptions in those games to Cutler's five and Orton was playing with an injury.

One oddity in the numbers is the changes in ratings both quarterbacks are experiencing this year. Kyle Orton's rating shot up 17.8 points while Cutler's rating of 89.3 represents an increase of 3.6 over last year.

The increase in Kyle Orton's numbers is part of a pattern. His quarterback rating has risen every year since his rookie year when it was only 59.7. At 97.4, if Orton's numbers hold up, he would have a quarterback rating better than the career ratings of guys like Drew Brees and Tom Brady.

Orton's play during the New England game was the kind of play that one would normally expect from Tom Brady. Was this just a one game fluke or can Orton continue that all season? The answer to that question may just be that Orton has emerged as a franchise quarterback in his own right.

Jay Cutler had a remarkable 88.5 rating as a rookie and has substantially the same rating now.

The perception of Jay Cutler as a franchise quarterback was formed early on from the remarkable skill set he showed as a rookie. Cutler's powerful arm, ability to throw touch passes, accuracy, and pocket presence were all evident from his first start. Cutler has skills that many good quarterbacks never develop.

The main thing holding Cutler back, and the main reason Orton is leading him in the rankings, are his interceptions. Last year Cutler was second in the league in interceptions with 18, the year before he threw 15 interceptions.

So far this year Cutler has thrown five interceptions, but four of them came in the first game of the season. If that game was a fluke and Cutler throws relatively few interceptions then he becomes the franchise quarterback so many people think he is. Brett Favre has made quite a nice career for himself with a career quarterback rating just under Jay Cutler's at 85.7 and he overcame similar interception problems.

There is no doubt at all that Kyle Orton gained more than Jay Cutler in the trade. Orton moved into an offense that gives him a lot of targets and gives him the freedom to choose which one he thinks is the most open.

Jay Cutler went into a situation that gives him fewer targets, but Cutler has managed to play efficiently and get the most out of the targets he has. The result for Cutler has been less yardage, but he still finds ways to keep his team in games with his ability to get the ball to his receivers in key situations.

The Broncos stand 5-0 and the Bears at 3-1. Both teams are entering very tough stretches during which we will find out a lot about these players. They just may both prove to be franchise quarterbacks.

The Forgotten Heroes

Randy Garcia — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 12:30:57 -0400

With the Basketball Hall of Fame Ceremony just around the corner all the focus tends to be on the stars. Laker hall of Famers like Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem, Magic et al made history but they didn’t do it alone. They had team mates who had equally important roles that should never be forgotten. Here are ten players who will never be in the Hall of Fame but who were invaluable in their support of the players that made it to basketball’s highest honor.

Begin Slideshow

Broncos '09: Who Are These Guys And What Did They Do To My Team?

Randy Garcia — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 12:53:45 -0400

Ask any Bronco fan who the best coach in Bronco history was and they will answer with no hesitation, Mike Shanahan. No one casts a bigger shadow.

After the Broncos second Super Bowl, Shanahan became Broncos football. Somehow every year was going to be a Super Bowl year. That was the Shanahan promise.

Every year we started with a bright shiny offense that ran like clockwork and if something went wrong that was okay because next year we would just adjust this or that.

There is little doubt that Shanahan needed Elway as much as Elway needed Shanahan. Most of Shanahan’s career after Elway was a search for a new Elway. No one ever looked more like Elway than Jay Cutler.

Cutler was going to be Shanahan’s salvation, the second coming. Shanahan was betting everything on the development of the young quarterback and the fans believed in Shanahan.

At the end of Cutler’s second year as a starter people began to doubt, the team was getting worse. Then Shanahan was fired and for some Broncos fans the world had been completely transformed. The certainty that seemed to exist with Shanahan was gone.

Suddenly the star quarterback was questioning the team owner. Demands flew, ultimatums were given. The owner hired a young prodigy named Josh McDaniels and the star wouldn’t talk to him.

The drama kept on, the star traded, another star complaining. None of this happened with Shanahan so it must be the new guys fault. The witch hunt was on.

Through all of this the team was rebuilt, the preseason played and with the season about to begin few people really know who the Denver Broncos are anymore.

Last years defense, we are told, was terrible, so this year's defense will have to be worse. Every small stumble was pointed to as the fatal flaw.

What has happened to the Broncos? Have they been rebuilt? What kind of season will they have? For the first time in 14 years Bronco fans are asking questions.

OFFENSE

The new offense has a lot of similarity to the old offense with a couple of notable changes.

Orton is not Cutler

Cutler has a great arm. There was no throw Cutler couldn’t make. With Cutler on the field the Broncos were dangerous regardless of their field position.

Orton is a lot more of a ball control quarterback. He won’t hold the ball for the deep pattern, instead he’ll take the short pass and work down the field.

Orton’s first preseason game was labeled as disastrous because of three interceptions. Before the first of those interceptions Orton had led an impressive drive. The second game saw Orton lead the same kinds of drives.

All of the evidence suggests Orton will have a strong year this year. He progressively did better at controlling turnovers and made good throws. Even in the Chicago game, when he constantly had to overcome holding penalties he went 12-16 with no interceptions.

The question that the preseason left about Orton is whether he only threw short passes by design or because that was all that was available. The fact that the second team used more long throws suggests that Orton was throwing shorter by design because his strength is getting the ball out quickly.

Who Will Catch the Ball?

The wide receiver spot has gotten a lot of attention because of the Brandon Marshall hold out. Many pundits assumed that without Marshall the Broncos will struggle in the passing game.

The truly odd thing about Marshall is that he has one of the lowest catch rates among starting wide receivers. Marshall’s catch rate of 57 percent pales in comparison to that of his own teammate Eddie Royal whose catch rate of 71 percent is one of the best in the league.

In fact both Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney have catch rates of 58 percent. The evidence from preseason is that they are more than adequate replacements for Marshall

Add in Tight Ends Tony Scheffler and Daniel Graham at 66 and 64 percent catch rates respectively, along with good pass catching running backs Knowshon Moreno and Peyton Hillis, the Broncos actually have plenty of solid receivers for a variety of situations.

The Offensive Line

One legacy of the Shanahan era is a solid offensive line. The only knock on the offensive line was depth. McDaniels addressed that nicely in the draft with Seth Olson and in free agency and with solid veterans like Russ Hochstein and Brandon Gorin. The Broncos front line will be bigger and deeper.

Running the Ball

Perhaps the biggest question mark offensively is the running game. The Broncos steadily progressed in the running game but really only showed up in the final preseason game.

Moreno’s carries have been very limited due to injury, Buckhalter has been lackluster, and Lamont Jordan has not impressed. Hillis, last year’s surprise starter at running back for a few games, may be the second best running back on the team. A lot depends on Moreno staying healthy in the running game.

DEFENSE

The good thing about last year’s defense is that it wasn’t as bad as Detroit’s. The bad thing is that it was almost as bad.

After the Cutler debacle criticism of McDaniels was that if he didn’t devote the draft to the defensive line it would be a failure. When only one draft choice was used on a defensive lineman a new round of criticism began.

Almost unnoticed was a series of quiet free agent pickups that will prove to be very wise over the course of the season.

The Defensive Line

The symbol of Denver’s defensive futility in 2008 was its smallish defensive line. Teams simply overpowered in the running game and ignored them in the passing game.

While the critics lambasted McDaniels for not spending draft choices on defensive linemen, McDaniels was quietly importing free agent Ronnie Fields, Ryan McBean and LeKevin Smith. Along with holdovers Kenny Peterson and Marcus Thomas, both of whom bulked up, the Broncos became much larger on the defensive line with McBean being the smallest at 290 pounds.

The preseason has revealed this squad as being strong enough to control the line and create penetration both against the run and the pass. They have been a large part of a very successful preseason defensive debut as none of their opponents have been able to sustain any significant offense.

They totaled 10 sacks in their four games and against Chicago they registered seven three-and-outs. Moreover they held last year’s Super Bowl contender’s first-string offense scoreless in the first quarter of their last preseason game.

Linebackers

This has been the biggest area of concern. The linebacker corps includes four former defensive linemen who are making the transition to outside linebacker.

Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers and Jarvis Moss have shown very good pass rushing skills from their outside linebacker positions but have missed assignments when called on to drop back into coverage.

Darrell Reid has been quieter but his interception against Arizona might have been a sign that he understands the coverage assignments a little better.

In the middle veterans D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are solid anchors while Mario Haggen provides a solid outside linebacker presence as the starter on the left side.

This linebacker corps in the three four defense give the Broncos a great ability to rush from a variety of positions on any given play. Dumervil and Moss, if he makes the team, will prosper in this scheme.

The Defensive Backs

One of the biggest free agent moves McDaniels made was the acquisition of Brian Dawkins. Renaldo Hill and Andre Goodman came over from Miami to join with Champ Bailey in forming one of the oldest defensive backfields in the league. Through the preseason they have shown that won’t be a problem.

Dawkins provides the anchor for the safety position that the Broncos have lacked since John Lynch retired. Known as an intense player he has already proved himself a great on field example for the younger players.

Bailey is widely considered one of the top cornerbacks in the game. His reputation alone prevents many quarterbacks from challenging him during games.

Goodman is a solid corner with good coverage skills. He will be the corner most tested this season. So far he looks up to the challenge but Cincinatti will be his toughest test so far.

Hill has had a decent career. Last year in Miami he was beaten out for the starting safety job by the end of preseason. When Miami’s secondary was burned in week two, Hill was inserted back into the lineup and is credited for solidifying the secondary that year.

Backing them up are a trio of second-round picks including Alphonso Smith, a much criticized pick by McDaniels who traded a first-round pick in next years draft to pick him. Smith has a reputation as a ball hawk. He has looked promising in the preseason at both nickel back and as a punt returner.

Darcel McBath and David Bruton are the two second-round safeties. They have both shown nice coverage skills and a willingness to make the big hit.

PREDICTIONS

The defense is going to get a lot of the attention early on. It shows signs of gelling quickly and has the right personnel to control most offenses.

None of the Broncos preseason contests were against strong running teams. The defense might struggle against power running teams like Pittsburgh and New York.

Teams like New England and San Diego will test the linebackers with passes to tight ends and running backs. The Broncos should work out their linebacker coverage but if they haven’t by the time they meet San Diego they will be in deep trouble.

Defensively the Broncos will end the season ranked somewhere between 12^th and 17^th. They will be solid against the run but vulnerable over the middle to passes to tight ends and backs out of the backfield.

Offensively, the Broncos have revealed very little in the preseason about how they will play. Will they stay strictly with the short game while Orton is out there? Will Moreno solidify the running game?

Fortunately the Broncos go against two relatively soft defenses in their first two games. Look for McDaniels to open up the playbook a little with a variety of misdirection plays and crossing routes.

The Broncos offense will be erratic for the first couple of games as they continue to absorb the new offense. They should settle a little for the Oakland game and be pretty decent in time for Dallas.

I do think McDaniels will pull out all the stops for Dallas. That will be a key game as the next four are very tough opponents.

Moreno’s durability will be a key issue in the performance of the Bronco offense. When healthy his skills are enough to make the Bronco running game a real threat. Good running performances by Moreno will go a long way to keeping pass rushers honest and forcing opposing defenses to keep more defenders in the box.

Should Moreno miss significant time to injury, backups Buckhalter and Hillis can provide a serviceable running game but neither will be enough of a threat to force defenses to focus on the running game.

Realistically the Broncos will see 8-8 but if they can split with San Diego, 9-7 while giving San Diego a scare for the division title. More than that is possible but it will depend on how well the offense comes together and on Moreno’s durability.

The Battle at Midway: The Denver Broncos As Seen on The History Channel

Randy Garcia — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 13:57:45 -0400

In World War II the Battle of Midway marked the point where the US began to assume control of the South Pacific. During the season of ritualized war that is professional football the Broncos may have fought their Battle of Midway and like that more famous battle this one may be the turning point of the war that is a football season.

This Broncos off-season will probably never be matched for sheer drama. Bronco fans were witness to the end of an era.

The Shanahan legacy was more than just two Super Bowls. Shanahan, along with Elway, were the validation of faith of those fans who stuck with the Broncos through all the years under Reeves when the Broncos got close to glory but never quite achieved it.

More important than anything else Shanahan did was that he brought the Broncos respect. The Broncos could no longer be thought of as the team of also-rans.

World War I was the point at which the United States emerged as a world power. In the football world the beginning of the Shanahan era was the Broncos World War I, the point where the Broncos became serious Super Bowl contenders.

The sad truth is that every era must end but not always quietly. The Shanahan era ended spasming and kicking as two budding stars, absent their mentor, could not accept the inevitable.

Pundits, profits and predictors of all stripe played on every fear that a fan could have. Somehow the new Bronco team would have every flaw that the team had under Shanahan plus whatever new flaws they might ascribe.

The respect the Broncos had earned was gone, an old empire had re awakened to challenge the Broncos now that Shanahan had faded. If Mike Shanahan was a football version of General Pershing the new Bronco head coach, Josh McDaniels, is a brash General Patton out to win this new battle.

Under this new lens of national coverage everything the Broncos organization did was painted as a poor choice or worse yet some evil machination by the young whelp of a coach. Just as General Patton scandalized the army by slapping a soldier he considered a malingerer in the face, McDaniels slapped coddled players Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall in their figurative faces.

The press reviled Patton, he was briefly relieved of command. In much the same way the vast majority of projections were that the new coach must fail well before a preseason game was played.

The lingering drama from the Shanahan legacy reared its ugly head in the form of Brandon Marshall’s petulant attitude. Soon writers who had never paid attention to the Denver Broncos were experts at predicting gloom for the new Bronco coach.

The first preseason game seemed to fill some of those expectations, with a turnover filled debut by the new quarterback. Contrary to the focus of the press on Kyle Orton’s turnovers there were several glimmers of hope for Bronco fans.

Early on in World War II the Germans were considered to have the best tanks and air force, the Japanese were unbeatable at sea. The US had to build and improve its military hardware fast.

For the first time in years the Broncos had a defensive line with the size to match up against some of the larger offensive lines in the league. Ronnie Fields, an under the radar free agent acquisition emerged as a solid anchor on the defensive line.

While the fanfare went on about offensive blunders the Bronco defense had accumulated four sacks and established a solid style of play. That four sack effort was followed by a three sack effort in game two of the preseason, a string unheard of by the Bronco defense over the last three years.

The other side of the ball showed Bronco fans some surprises as well.

While Orton’s interceptions were fodder for the press the fact that Orton’s first drive featured a brilliant passing display went un-noticed. Only on the second game, when Orton managed to sustain his fine display of short passing did the press and fans take notice.

Pundits who had written off the Bronco receiving corps as weak because of the Brandon Marshall debacle were suddenly aware of Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley, Jabar Gaffney et al.

The most under reported aspect of the Bronco offensive performances was the complete dominance in the passing game of the Bronco’s offensive line. Through just over two halves of football Orton had not seen any significant pressure.

Steadily over the first two preseason games the Broncos are showing strong improvements on both sides of the ball. The truly remarkable aspect of these improvements are that they have come in only two games from a team who starting lineup features a majority of players who weren’t with the team last year.

Finally there is one last trope that exists. Much like the squabble over control between General Montgomery and General Eisenhower, overarching the entire off-season is the oft-referred to turmoil under which the team supposedly toils.

Some pundits have gone as far as to claim that all of the off-season drama has produced a sort of team paralysis through which players suffering from the post traumatic stress of the various scandals stumble zombie-like through practices.

People have been led to believe that there is some division between the new coaching staff and his players. This divide is allegedly caused by the player’s concern for the fate of the gravely wounded Brandon Marshall.

In a very recent article by the Denver Post Broncos defensive tackle Kenny Peterson said:

"People might say it's the kind of thing that has an impact, but when we're together as players, it's us, just us, we don't feel that kind of drama, really, I know people may think that's crap, but we don't. That stuff that goes on upstairs, that's upstairs, and when (Marshall's) upstairs he deals with that and when he's down here with us, he's in there and everybody hopes it all works out. And really, guys have bigger things to worry about in training camp, in the preseason, than somebody else's situation. It's none of our concern. As long as he does what he does on the field, the rest of it is none of our concern."

In the same article running back Correll Buckhalter phrased it this way:

"Here's the thing. When I was in Philadelphia, there was always talk about the drama with the team and (Terrell Owens) but T.O. was never a problem, day to day, in the locker room. I don't think people on the outside understand that a lot of the time. The guy didn't have a problem with anybody on the team inside the locker room when we were inside that locker room. Outside the locker room, I can't speak to that, but inside the locker room, I don't think he had a problem with anybody."

If there is one great thing Bronco fans learned from this off-season it should be that a lot of the hand-wringing and reported turmoil is purely a perception the national press has sold as real. In the locker room and on the field the Broncos are quietly going about building a solid team that will compete this year.

Midway was not the end of WWII but it was the beginning of the end. Midway through the preseason the Broncos have not won anything yet but they are beginning to win back some respect.

Kyle Orton's Broncos Debut: Was It Really That Bad?

Randy Garcia — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 15:19:02 -0400

The first preseason game of 2009 has been played. Most Bronco fans came away encouraged by offensive and defensive upgrades, but the overwhelming impressions many have of the game were formed by Orton’s three interceptions. Are they harbingers of football doom or merely the growing pains of a new system?

Clearly every Bronco fan was excited by the beginning of Denver’s first offensive drive. Orton went 7-of-8 in marching the Broncos from their own 28-yard line to the San Francisco 4. Then the wheels came off.

Orton’s first pass into the end zone was a bad read on his part. Instead of throwing the ball right to Daniel Graham, Orton led him into coverage. The result was an interception.

The next drive saw the 49ers ramp up their defensive coverage. Orton was 1-of-3 before making another bad read over the middle, when Dre Bly stepped in front of Brandon Stokley.

Orton’s very next pass was a slightly underthrown 24-yard pass down the sideline. Jabar Gaffney was open in an area about five yards behind the deep-zone defender and five yards past a mid-zone defender. Orton clearly underthrew the ball because he was worried about the deep defender coming up on Gaffney, leaving the ball just short enough for the athletic young Reggie Smith to make a great play on a third pick.

For the half, Orton went 9-of-16 for 89 yards with three interceptions. Should Denver fans be out in the streets with torches and pitchforks? Maybe not.

Last year Orton threw no interceptions in nine of the 15 games he played in. Orton’s worst season was his rookie season when he threw only 13 interceptions.

A comparison of quarterbacks who had similar numbers of attempts last year shows Orton’s 12 interceptions as comparable with other quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and others. Orton actually threw more touchdowns in 2008 than highly touted young quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco as well.

Since the Cutler trade, much has been heard about Orton’s tendency to throw interceptions, but the statistics show something very different. Why is this?

There could be a simple reason.

Chicago fans had a Super Bowl team in 2006 largely led by a strong defense. The huge dropoff they had in 2007 and 2008 are usually blamed on Brian Griese and Kyle Orton, but both of those quarterbacks actually outperformed Grossman’s Super Bowl run effort.

The fact is that Chicago’s defense wasn’t as strong in the years after 2006 but because the quarterbacks they had weren’t winning games the passers got the blame. Orton, in particular, partly because he was so inexperienced, became a popular scapegoat, his every mistake magnified.

Orton’s own efficiency added to this perception. Though he only threw interceptions in six games, he threw two interceptions in four of those games and three interceptions in one of them.

All but one of those multiple-interception games in 2008 were games in which Orton was sacked three or more times. In fact, Orton only throws three interceptions during the entire season in games in which he is sacked less than three times, that's only three interceptions in 11 games. This suggests that, when under pressure, Orton can be forced into bad decisions, but if he is given time he can be very efficient.

During the first Bronco preseason game, Orton was not only not sacked but hardly saw any significant pressure. He’ll see more pressure during the year but nothing like what he saw in Chicago.

His only obstacles are going to be learning the offensive system and getting used to his receivers. Give him time to develop rapport with his receivers, and the stats suggest that we’ll see very few mistakes over the course of the year.

The Reason for Brandon Marshall's Drama Becomes Clear

Randy Garcia — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 11:22:02 -0400

Amidst the offseason turmoil Bronco’s fans have endured was the dramatic trade request by Brandon Marshall. Coming on the heels of the Jay Cutler fiasco Marshall’s trade demands seemed to indicate the franchise was alienating its players.

Marshall’s holdout lingered all off-season, sharply dividing Denver fans. When Marshall finally did end his holdout it was only because he ran the risk of being fined.

The complaints coming out of Marshall’s camp were myriad:

He was locked into a rookie contract that left him vastly underpaid.

The Bronco training staff misdiagnosed the severity of a hip injury that led to his requiring off-season surgery.

He didn’t trust new head coach Josh McDaniels

Just before training camp began Marshall bragged about his workouts with Larry Fitzgerald. His claim was that his only issue was that he needed to work on his speed.

Then came training camp with a pouty Brandon Marshall dramatically ending his holdout. He looked great in showing off his conditioning but ominously had to sit out the first day of practice.

On the third day of practice Marshall pulled up with what was widely reported as a hamstring pull. The Denver Post is reporting today that Marshall did not sit out of practice because of a pulled hamstring but due to pain in his surgically repaired hip.

The reality of Marshall’s surgery is that players generally need six months to a year to fully recover. Marshall had surgery in March, just four months ago.

Even leaving aside the question of whether Marshall can fully recover he may not recover fully this season. This is particularly devastating in a contract year when Marshall needs to elevate his worth.

The offseason complaints by Marshall clearly were a way of trying to get a new contract before the Broncos realized that Marshall may not be able to be as effective as he had been.

Five Undrafted Free Agents To Watch For The Broncos

Randy Garcia — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 16:08:25 -0400

While top Bronco rookies battle it out during the preseason with top free agents to see who starts, there another battle raging among players. They are the afterthoughts, the players no one expects anything from.

Undrafted free agents are usually training camp fodder, but every once in a while, one turns out to be a hidden gem.

The list of great players who were undrafted free agents includes such notables as Rod Smith, Wes Welker, Kurt Warner and John Randle. This year the Broncos have a few of UFA’s who will bear watching.

Chris Baker

Josh McDaniels was widely criticized for not picking a candidate for the nose tackle position in the draft.

What escaped many people’s notice was that the Broncos quietly acquired a player whom many scouting combines projected as the seventh best defensive tackle in the 2009 rookie class.

Chris Baker is a 6’2”, 326 lb physical marvel with a 35.5 inch vertical leap and a 40 yard dash time of 5.02. Baker is a player who was on the New England Patriots radar for the 2010 draft. and was actually called in by them for a private workout.

Unfortunately for Chris Baker, he was a player at Penn State during a time when sports media was focusing on the 46 players who had been charged with a total of 163 counts of criminal behavior. The resulting sensitivity to any character issues cost Baker his place at Penn State and ultimately his place in the draft.

Now Chris Baker hopes to earn a spot in the rotation in a key defensive position for the Broncos.

Everette Pedescleaux

How does a 6’4.5”, 305 pound defensive end not get drafted? The answer is that Everette Pedescleaux was more dedicated to basketball than football for most of his college career.

Throughout prep school and his first two years of college, Pedescleaux was a two sport athlete whose main interest was basketball. When he finally began to focus on football, Pedescleaux began to truly develop as a defensive end.

While his low production over the course of his college career kept him from getting an invite to the scouting combine, his size and speed alone are intriguing. The key for this prospect will be his ability to continue to improve his technique. If he does that, he could well become a solid starting defensive end by the end of preseason.

Rulon Davis

The big knock on the Broncos defensive line was size along the defensive line. Rulon Davis, at 6'5" and 290 pound,s could be one of the solutions.

Every scout has Davis rated high for his size and athleticism. Davis' character is of the highest caliber, as he served in the Marines during the Iraq War.

Entering the NFL at the advanced age of 25, Davis' stock in the draft was brought down by his history of leg injuries. The key to his success as a Bronco will be his ability to stay on the field.

Marquez Branson

One of the most intriguing pickups of this year's undrafted free agent class is Central Arkansas tight end Marquez Branson. His great hands and ability to get down-field quickly made him a big play-maker in college.

Branson probably won’t make it onto the Broncos team as a tight end because he is not a good blocker, and the Broncos are strong in that position. Where Branson will have a big impact will be at the H-back position.

Peyton Hillis is currently the favorite to win the H-back position, but Branson will push him hard. Branson’s receiving skills may win the position for him outright; otherwise he will end up as a primary backup.

Lee Robinson

At 6’2.5”, 249 pounds Lee Robinson is considered undersized for his natural position as an outside linebacker in the 3-4 system. His weak coverage skills make a conversion to inside linebacker more of a project, which is why this prospect wasn’t drafted.

What Robinson does have though is great pass rushing ability and explosive speed against the run game. Look for Robinson to initially see situational action as a run stopping inside linebacker while he hones his coverage skills.

All five of these players have the potential to play important minutes during the course of this 2009 season. This preseason may be a chance to watch one of them go from a lowly UFA to star.

The Big On Field Battle in Denver

Randy Garcia — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 14:59:04 -0400

Finally the long hot summer is beginning to end.

The boys of summer will soon give way to the warriors of winter. The crack of the bat will be replaced by the crash of body armor against body armor.

Denver fans have been waiting since January for some glimpse of the post-Shanahan era and what it really means. The first big battle won’t be Denver versus some other team though.

An era has changed; there is a new attitude in Denver. One clash remains, the last vestige of the excesses that doomed Mike Shanahan still remains to be washed away. The big pre-season battle to watch will be Royal versus Marshall.

Marshall was the coddled star, whose poor off-field decisions were tolerated because on the field he could make great plays. The last year of Shanahan’s tenure was marked by a reliance on two young talents with great potential, but great flaws.

While Marshall enters his third season Royal comes in as a second year player who has quietly gone about his business well enough to have an excellent rookie campaign. The new attitude in Denver is hard working, no fuss type players.

Over the last couple of years McDaniels’ offense has featured precise disciplined routes run by receivers like Moss and Welker with the quarterback throwing to spots. A player like Royal fits that concept like a glove, but Marshall has never been a disciplined route runner.

Marshall and Cutler worked well together, with Cutler buying time with his feet while Marshall used his size to ward off smaller defenders. Cutler was looking for him anyway so it didn’t really matter if Marshall was in exactly the right place.

Marshall caught 57 percent of the passes thrown to him, Royal caught 71 percent.

There will be a battle.

Marshall has to prove to the league that it is worth putting up with his poor off-field decisions. A bad season by Marshall could mean little to no interest in him as a free agent.

This battle is a microcosm of the Denver Bronco offseason.

Can Marshall show the kind of discipline the new system will require? He will get his chances but if he can’t stay with Royal in the preseason he may end up somewhere else before his trading value drops too far.

Kyle Orton: What Is Being Said Versus the Evidence

Randy Garcia — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 20:53:25 -0400

New Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton has received a lot of criticism lately. He has been called weak—armed and interception prone.

Are these charges true? Let's take a look.

Kyle Orton’s interceptions

Ever since the Cutler—Orton trade much as been made of Orton’s interceptions. In 2008 Orton threw 12 interceptions out of 465 pass attempts. The interesting thing is that nine of those interceptions came during games in which Orton was sacked three or more times. Chicago split those games, going 2—2.

Orton does throw two interceptions against New Orleans, a game where he was only sacked one time. He goes on to lead a drive at the end of the game to tie it and another drive in overtime to win it.

The very next game was against Green Bay. This was a game in which Orton was sacked three times but also led a game tying drive in the fourth quarter and a game winning drive in overtime.

Clearly Orton can be pressured into throwing interceptions. Does that mean he will always throw interceptions when he is under pressure? This video suggests otherwise. Note that the longest completion on that drive is thrown by Orton as he is taking a fierce hit.

The evidence suggests that given reasonable time in the pocket Orton can make the throws he needs to make. It also suggests that Orton is capable of standing in and taking a hit while delivering the ball.

Orton has a weak arm

One of the more bizarre charges against Orton is the he can’t throw deep. What makes this such a strange accusation is that it completely ignores a draft system that is set up to choose the best players from the hundreds of colleges and universities across the country.

While at Purdue Orton managed to pass for enough yards to be fourth on the Big Tens all time career list.

Any quarterback who gets drafted will have been thoroughly scrutinized and no coach will ever handicap himself by taking a quarterback who can’t make all the throws he needs to. Generally when a quarterback is called ‘weak—armed’ it is because they strongly prefer to throw short passes.

‘Weak—armed’ quarterbacks have included guys like Joe Montana and Tom Brady. A quarterback in an offense that emphasizes short passes is often the target of the term ‘weak—armed’.

Orton’s scouting report from Scouts Inc., the service ESPN uses, says the following: “He has a strong arm and can make all the throws.”

Pro Football Weekly says, “Can zip the ball with velocity, make back-shoulder throws and shows good overall accuracy when his feet are set and he steps into his throws.”

Maybe the best evidence is this video which pretty well shows off Orton’s ability to get the ball down—field.

Just by way of comparison, Peyton Manning, in 2008, completed passes over 20 yards at a rate of 35 percent while Orton is at 37 percent.

Orton is immobile

Perhaps the most serious charge against Kyle Orton is that he can’t move in the pocket. Even many of the scouting services list him as ‘heavy footed’.

Needless to say the two videos previously referred to in this article show Orton moving quite well while rolling out and getting back to pass as does this video.

One of the striking things about Orton’s statistics is the difference in quarterback rating before and after the November 2 game against Detroit. He goes from an average rating of 89.92 in the first eight games to an average of 66.95 in the last seven games, nearly a 23 point drop.

Eight of Orton’s twelve interceptions are in this last half of the season, after he injures his ankle against Detroit. He also, in consecutive games during this period, leads drives in the fourth quarter that force overtime and ends up winning both of those games.

Orton’s mobility in the last half of 2008 was poor and that drastically affected his performances. During the first half of the season Orton played well and his mobility was fine.

The verdict

Kyle Orton doesn’t really have a long track record in the NFL but what there is suggests he is a decent quarterback that was on a poor offensive team. His poorest games came when he was pressured by the opposing team and that pressure was made worse by his ankle injury.

His arm is average by NFL standards with good accuracy when he is allowed time to throw. Given the targets he had in Chicago he had a reasonable career so far.

He’s never had the kind of multiple targets he will have in Denver and his protection will be better. While it is impossible to know how well he’ll be able to use all those targets his history suggests that given the time to throw he will do very well.

What Josh McDaniels Was Thinking

Randy Garcia — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:45:30 -0400

When Mike Shanahan was fired at the beginning of 2009 he was quoted as saying that he thought any new coach coming in would be a fool to substantially change the offense. The eventual trade of Jay Cutler and revamping of the Denver Broncos has been a bone of contention for many Denver Bronco fans ever since.

The end of 2008 saw the Denver offense compared to the best offenses in the league. Jay Cutler was being widely touted as a future star, his record an aberration blamed on a very poor Denver defense. Why then, did new coach Josh McDaniels change the offense?

Comparing the offenses of the 2007 New England Patriots and 2008 Denver Broncos one striking thing is that they both averaged close to the same yardage per play. This is what most pundits point to when they tout the 2008 statistics of Jay Cutler. What they don’t point out is that the 16-0 Patriots scored 589 points while the 8-8 Broncos scored only 370.

Just three years before that Denver scored 395 points with far fewer turnovers and went 13-3. In fact a comparison of the 2008 Scoreability Index and the 2005 Scoreability Index suggests that the Broncos were less efficient and 2007’s Scoreability Index was worse than 2008’s. Notice the team at the top of the 2008 Scoreability Index?

Of course everyone in Denver remembers the big falloff in 2006, when Denver recorded an 8-8 record. The end of that season saw Shanahan firing defensive coordinator Larry Coyer and trade starting quarterback Jake Plummer away.

Since 2006 the defense has been poor and is popularly blamed for Denver’s woes. Plummer was replaced by Jay Cutler, a young player with an impressive arm. The Broncos were 7-9 in 2007 and 8-8 in 2008.

Denver’s defense certainly never recovered its efficiency. Relatively unnoticed is the fact that while Denver’s yardage soared with Jay Cutler Denver’s scoring was going down.

Cutler’s gaudy yardage statistics, impressive as they were, were accompanied by more attempts and less scoring. Hidden in the stats was a growing problem for Denver’s offense, an inability to score touchdowns.

Denver’s rushing offense was a big factor in its two Super Bowl wins. Elway may never have won a championship without TD. Over the years Denver’s rushing game was a big key because it set up play-action passing and it forced defenses to choose whether to take a chance on whether to cover a Bronco receiver one-on-one.

2005 was a fairly typical year with Denver gaining 2539 yards rushing. Denver’s rushing yardage dropped steadily every year, Denver only had 1862 yards rushing last year even though Denver’s yards per carry was almost identical between the two years.

In fact last years yards per carry compares favorably to the yards per carry of Denver’s last championship team in 1998 when they still had Terrell Davis.

The Broncos had never really replaced Terrell Davis with a single back. Instead Shanahan had adopted the attitude that he could always find a back to be successful in Denver’s system and he was more or less proven right.

Why didn’t Denver rush more? The popular reason given is that Cutler was a better passer than Plummer but their yards per attempt when one compares 2005 and 2008 is identical. The only real difference between the quarterbacks statistically is that Cutler threw 620 times to Plummer’s 465.

Shanahan, like many others, had fallen in love with Cutler’s arm and abandoned the offensive balance that had been a major part of his success. The result was worse offense to go along with worse defense.

When Shanahan was fired many Denver fans assumed that nothing was wrong with the offense; that Shanahan’s failings were only on the defense. Many people expected a defensive head coach to replace Shanahan.

When Denver Broncos’ owner Pat Bowlen hired a former New England Patriots offensive coordinator to be head coach it came as a shock to many who saw Denver as having no offensive problems. Before McDaniels had any chance to do anything Cutler made it evident he wanted out and forced a trade.

McDaniels was immediately faced with a team loaded with offensive talent that had been abandoned by its quarterback and a defense that had lost confidence. One of McDaniels’ first moves was to bring in defensive coordinator Mike Nolan.

Mike Nolan has made a career as defensive coordinator of some of the best defenses in the NFL. His success on defense led to a brief stint as the head coach of the San Fransisco 49ers.

McDaniels then made some smart free agent pickups of veterans like Brian Dawkins, Andra Davis, J’Vonne Parker and Ronald Fields. Quiet acquisitions like Darryl Reid will address Denver’s questions along the defensive line while letting Bronco linemen like Elvis Dumervil and Jarvis Moss assume more natural positions.

On offense he traded disgruntled quarterback Jay Cutler and a fifth round draft pick for a more enthusiastic Kyle Orton, two first round draft picks and a third round draft pick. If we go back to the 2008 Scoreability Index the team with the best scoreability index was the Kyle Orton led Chicago Bears.

Essentially McDaniels pulled off a coup, swapping starters and getting two first round picks and a third for a fifth round pick. This is possibly the area in which McDaniels made his soundest move.

In the draft McDaniels was able to add a great running back prospect, a solid pass rusher, several good young defensive backs, depth along the offensive line and a good young quarterback prospect. Between the draft and free agency McDaniels has quietly added depth, youth and experience while simultaneously shoring up several Denver weak spots.

Critics of McDaniels focus on the Jay Cutler fiasco but McDaniels really had little he could have done with that situation. As things stand he may well have improved Denver greatly.

Tragedy Or Triumph For A Laker

Randy Garcia — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 13:06:32 -0400

Casual fans of the Lakers may wonder who the guy sitting at the end of the bench during the Finals was. He was the guy who rarely got into games during the season and did little to show he should be in games.

He was the ‘other guy’ in the trade that brought Shannon Brown to the team. The irony is that he was actually supposed to be the main guy Charlotte was giving up to get Vladimir Radmanovich, Shannon Brown was just a throw in. I’m talking, of course, about Adam Morrison.

Adam Morrison came to the Lakers in February 2009 and immediately made almost no impression at all. He showed no signs of being the great scorer he had been while at Gonzaga, the college player who led the nation in scoring from 2005-2006.

The story was already being written, another first-round draft bust. Morrison was the player who showed great promise only to fizzle in the NBA. He was the great prospect who was injured early in his career and never quite recovered.

Ironically Morrison tore his ACL while playing in a preseason game against the Lakers. Somehow it would have been fitting if his career died there, a sort of symmetry with the injury that stopped his career cold in 2007.

The 24 year old hasn’t given up though and his new coach, Phil Jackson, hasn’t given up yet. The last chance for young Adam Morrison is occurring right now in the NBA Summer League. Morrison has quietly become the second leading scorer in the League, scoring 24 and 22 points respectively in the first two games.

The Summer League is composed of mostly not-ready-for-the-NBA players so dominance of the Summer League is a must for any real prospect. This doesn’t guarantee Morrison anything but it does offer a glimmer of hope.

Adam Morrison is trying to write a new story, of a basketball player who suffered a potential career ending injury, was considered washed up and took advantage of his last opportunity to restore his career. Will he restore his career while playing on the team that almost ended his career?

The NBA is full of stories of tragedy, players with promise whose careers are derailed by this or that and stories of triumph, players who overcome great obstacles to have a career playing with and against some of the greatest athletes in the world. Adam Morrison may just end up being a great Laker story of triumph.

Is Jay Cutler a Franchise Quarterback without Mike Shanahan?

Randy Garcia — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 20:53:23 -0400

In the wake of the dramatic restructuring of the Denver Broncos, the big story has not been the acquisition of a new coach or changes in offensive and defensive philosophy, but the trade of Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears.

Many people have been so caught up in the loss of Cutler that they consider the Broncos' season over before training camp has even begun. What do the numbers really say about Cutler and his success in Denver?

The most impressive thing about Cutler is his arm. No one in football has a stronger arm. Add to that Cutler’s mobility and ability to throw on the run, and he can be a formidable weapon as he has proven in his brief career. Cutler has the ability to make any throw on the field.

Oddly enough, Cutler’s one weakness is that he is much less effective when forced to stay in the pocket.

During his brief tenure in Denver, Cutler was surrounded by great offensive talent at the receiver position and was one of the least-sacked quarterbacks in the league. One would expect great numbers from a great quarterback in this situation, and Cutler delivered, but how do his numbers compare to other great quarterbacks in similar situations?

The Broncos were 7-9 in Cutler’s first year and 8-8 in his second, but much of that is blamed on Denver’s defense.

How bad was Denver’s defense?

That’s not as easy to evaluate as one might think. In 2008, the Broncos had a turnover differential of -17. In 2008, Bronco opponents got 101 points off of Broncos' turnovers.

In 2008, Cutler alone threw 18 interceptions and fumbled five times. This might be forgivable if Cutler was under great pressure all the time, but Cutler was sacked only 11 times all season. Cutler had 20 of the team's 30 turnovers.

The 448 points given up by the Bronco defense made them the third worst in the NFL, but 101 of the points given up were from turnovers directly attributable to Cutler. Had the Broncos only given up 347 points, they would have been a middle-of-the-road defense. Even a more realistic 400 points would have potentially been good enough to make them a playoff team.

The Bronco defense was still not very good, and had they gotten into the playoffs, it would only have been because the Chargers had an off year. The point is that Cutler added to the defensive woes by giving his opponents extra possessions and short fields to work with.

How do Cutler’s stats measure up?

Cutler’s passer rating ranks him 14th in the league and his completion percentage is 16th in the league. Only one passer threw more times than Cutler in 2008, but Drew Brees has a significantly higher QB rating and completion percentage.

Cutler’s yardage stats are impressive, but they suggest Cutler is only great between the 20s. When you look at Cutler’s completion percentage in the red zone, it drops all the way down to 56.9 percent. By comparison, Brees’ percentage goes up to 71.4 percent in the red zone. In fact, Cutler's red zone percentage puts him in 11th place in the NFL, again mediocre.

The Broncos were second in yardage per game but only 16th in points scored. When you rate Cutler and the Denver offense by yardage, they were great, but if you go strictly by scoring, the Broncos were a mediocre team.

Cutler’s team or Shanahan’s team?

One of the things people tend to forget when they look at Cutler is just how loaded Denver is on offense. In 2008, Cutler was surrounded by two receivers who were close to 1,000 yards in receptions; Brandon Marshall was well over and Eddie Royal just under, along with one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league. Cutler was also working behind an offensive line that gave up only eight sacks. In a lot of ways, Cutler was in the ideal situation for a young quarterback.

Mike Shanahan had designed his offense for John Elway, and Cutler has very similar skills. Between Shanahan and quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates, Cutler was being carefully groomed in the mold of Elway. Cutler’s decision-making in the Shanahan system was minimized.

Shanahan had already been successful with a running system that left only very basic decisions to the running back. For years, he could plug in any running back and boast a decent running game.

The quarterback spot was being run in a very similar way. Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and Cutler all had similar success over the years. Griese’s third year saw him with 19 touchdowns to only four interceptions and a quarterback rating of 102.9. Plummer’s best years as a pro were in Denver.

Comparing Cutler to his post-Elway predecessors, Cutler has better yardage but many more interceptions than Griese, while he has similar yardage and slightly fewer interceptions than Plummer. Both Plummer and Griese had higher winning percentages than Cutler though. Neither Plummer or Griese would ever be mistaken for a franchise quarterback.

One thing that is very different though is that both Griese and Plummer were better at diversifying the offense. Cutler’s 181 throws to Marshall was unusual for a Shanahan quarterback.

The mastermind

Any Broncos fan of the last 12 years will always have a soft spot for Shanahan. Without Shanahan, Elway retires a loser and the Broncos are just a team that wants to win a Super Bowl.

He was brought in because he was an offensive genius, and he proved it with back-to-back Super Bowl wins. The offensive scheme Shanahan created was good enough to work even after other teams in the league had caught on to it and knew how it worked.

Shanahan gained a large part of his reputation early on by working with Elway in the early part of his career. He furthered that reputation in San Francisco when he helped Steve Young turn his career around after Joe Montana was gone. One thing Shanahan does very well is build an offense around a quarterback.

Shanahan’s success with quarterbacks like Griese and Plummer suggest that he can make even a questionable quarterback look very good.

Conclusion

When the Cutler trade was announced, Mike Ditka was quoted as saying;

"People ask me one question: Is he a good quarterback? Well, he has a great arm. He had great receivers up in Denver, they had an offense that threw the football a lot, so it highlighted his strengths. If he's in an offense that doesn't highlight his strengths, what's his strength going to be? It has to be leadership, like Tony said. And he has to prove that."

Tony Dungy said:

“He is a very talented guy who can throw the ball very well. But quarterbacking is so much about leadership and so much about doing things under pressure. There is going to be a lot of pressure on him."

"We'll see about his maturity level. That's what I would question. And some of the things that happened leading to him leaving Denver ... that would concern me as a head coach. He can make all of the throws, but quarterbacking is much more than just making throws."

These two former coaches both recognize one thing. Cutler has spent all of his three years as a pro in an offense designed for him and with a coach who carefully led him through the game. Lovie Smith is not Mike Shanahan; he won’t alter his offense drastically to suit Cutler.

Cutler won’t be surrounded by the kind of offensive talent he had in Denver. He will be surrounded by the winds that Chicago is known for. He’ll be expected to adapt his play to a more conservative game plan which emphasizes protecting the ball.

Shanahan’s magic is gone. Will Cutler disappear without it?

Denver Broncos Bunk: Dispelling Myths About Josh McDaniels

Randy Garcia — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 17:59:53 -0400

The Denver Broncos offseason has been painted in the press as everything from minor disaster to major apocalypse.

A lot of the analysis, though, has been based on abysmally poor reporting. Sadly, the local Denver media has exacerbated this by sensationalizing events in a very misleading way.

Here are a few of the myths and an account of how they’ve been misreported.

Josh McDaniels alienated Jay Cutler by seeking a trade for Matt Cassel

This is probably the most egregious example of poor reporting during this whole affair. The funny part about this is that just reading the Rocky Mountain News’ and Denver Post’s own articles from the time of Mike Shanahan’s firing is enough to debunk this myth.

When Shanahan was fired at the end of the 2008-09 season, Jay Cutler told the Rocky Mountain News, "I'm disappointed, I'm shocked, I'm not happy about it, I'm not pleased with it at all.” Cutler went on to state that he would leave if Denver’s offensive coaches were not retained, particularly Jeremy Bates.

The article also mentioned that after hearing about the firing Cutler consulted Shanahan about the offense.

Not long after that Josh McDaniels was named as head coach, McDaniels was brought in to pull Denver out of some of the ruts it had worked its way into.

The dilemma McDaniels faced is that in keeping Shanahan’s offensive staff, he would be keeping the same staff under which Denver’s offense had become stagnant. When the new head coach began replacing the offensive coaching staff, including Bates, Cutler stayed silent.

Cutler knew that if he tried to leave then he would rightly be perceived as unprofessional and his stock would go down.

Things stayed quiet for over a month until, on Feb. 26, a spokesman for the Patriots organization mentioned that the Broncos had considered a trade for Matt Cassel. The statement from the Patriots made no mention of who initiated the talks. Bill Belichick later issued a statement that the Patriots had shopped Cassel around prior to the trade with Denver, meaning that they probably initiated the call.

Cutler’s initial reaction was a little absurd, but got truly ridiculous when he claimed that he wanted a trade because McDaniels "wasn’t sorry" about considering a trade.

Clearly the real reason for Cutler’s wanting out of Denver was the Shanahan firing and his fear of having to work in a new offense. McDaniels acted professionally by not kowtowing to a pampered player who wanted to control the offense. It’s doubtful that McDaniels ever seriously considered a trade for Cassel.

The Broncos gave up a franchise quarterback for a mediocre quarterback

First of all Cutler, by his actions, had shown he was clearly not mature enough to entrust with leading a football team. His first reaction in learning of Mike Shanahan’s firing was to try a power play, and when that failed he pouted until he forced a trade.

While Cutler has a world class arm that could compare with Elway or Favre, he has an attitude toward the game that compares more with Jeff George. A big part of Denver’s decline was Cutler’s poor decision making and predictability.

Defenses could count on Cutler forcing the ball into Brandon Marshall in key situations. The result was a slew of interceptions at key moments in key games.

Kyle Orton started as a rookie in 2005 after the Bears starting QB and backup QB had both been injured. Despite playing behind a weak offensive line and having poor receivers, Orton performed in that emergency role for 15 games until the starter was able to return.

In 2008 Orton won the starting job and performed well again, despite being surrounded by a weak offensive team. In fact, Orton performed under such poor conditions and attained stats comparable to Cutler’s—even though Cutler was surrounded by much better talent.

At best, neither quarterback is a proven commodity. Orton is a better game manager and more disciplined player, while Cutler has a stronger arm but is prone to gambling.

The Broncos needed to replace their defensive line

The reason for this myth is the misconception that because Denver’s defense was poor in 2008-2009 and it's line performed so poorly that all of Denver’s defensive linemen had to be replaced. Denver’s defense was poor, and its line did play badly, but the reason for that is under-reported mainly because most sports-writers only look at stats.

Denver’s defensive guru throughout the glory years of the 70’s and 80’s was a coach named Joe Collier. Collier was the architect of the "Orange Crush Defense" and easily the greatest defensive coach in Denver history. Collier is also regarded as the first man to ever use the 3-4 defense in the pros while an assistant coach with the Bills in 1964.

From Collier, Shanahan learned the notion of using defensive linemen as blockers to keep offensive linemen off of your linebackers. In Shanahan’s system, the defensive lineman’s first job was to keep the offensive linemen on the line and only rush after they determined it was a pass play.

Where Collier still used penetration to get that control of the line Shanahan’s approach was more passive. Only the ends were expected to rush in Shanahan's defense, making them easy to block.

Because of the way Shanahan used his defensive linemen, there were rarely more than two pass rushers on any pass play unless they were blitzing. This resulted in poor stats for the defensive linemen. That was part of the system.

Added to all that was Shanahan’s poor management skill when it came to working with defensive coordinators—they had four defensive coordinators in eight years with two of them (Rhodes and Slowik) lasting less than a season each.

Denver’s defense was constantly changing schemes and players often were simply confused by it all.

McDaniels screwed up the draft

A lot of this myth comes from the perception that the defensive line had to be replaced. McDaniels smartly realized that focusing on the line would prevent him from making more urgent upgrades to the team.

McDaniels used the draft to give the Broncos more athleticism in the defensive backfield and to get a player that could be an offensive focus along with acquiring a potential outside linebacker to rush the passer in the 3-4.

McDaniels alienated Brandon Marshall

Frankly this one puzzles me. Marshall claims that his beef is because the Bronco medical staff gave him poor advice last season. This doesn’t even have anything to do with McDaniels if we are to believe Marshall.

The reason blame is attributed to McDaniels is that no one actually believes Marshall’s stated complaint.

The obvious situation here is that Brandon Marshall is in a contract year, coming off of hip surgery and might possibly be suspended for his plethora of legal problems. McDaniels’ detractors are so desperate that they somehow gloss over all of this to sympathize with Marshall

Prediction

McDaniels has very smartly kept the best parts of the Shanahan era Broncos while letting a lot of questionable pieces go. The likelihood is that the 2009-2010 Broncos will be at least as good as last year’s version.

The trade of Cutler will prove to be a good one as Orton will be a better fit in McDaniels system and will be fairly efficient. The Broncos' offense will be more diverse than in 2008-2009 and, while no one player will have a dominant year, they will post similar numbers in passing yardage and better numbers rushing.

The defense will be solid with strong secondary play and good, though unspectacular line play. They’ll finish with a defensive rating in the middle of the NFL pack.

Realistically they will win between 7-to-10 games and finish second in the division.

Rocky Mountain Blues: The Ultimate Denver Is Doomed Article (Satire)

Randy Garcia — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 19:12:21 -0400

Given all of the drama surrounding the Denver Broncos this off-season, it comes as no surprise that there have been a flurry of articles predicting a disastrous season for that team. There have, in fact, been so many articles that it has started to become obvious that the writers of these pieces are having trouble thinking up new material. Fortunately I am here to help with a few suggestions.

Josh McDaniels has destroyed the team.

Before this offseason, Denver was a football paradise. Under Mike Shanahan, the Broncos were so dominant that they lost games just to encourage their opponents. Their opponents needed increasing amounts of encouragement.

Pat Bowlen became so bored with the everyday perfection of the Bronco team that he snuck up behind Coach Mike Shanahan while he was watching a play at Ford Theater and shot him in the head. Later it was proved that Bowlen had been hypnotized by Bill Belichick.

Then Bill Belichick secretly infiltrated the crafty Josh McDaniels into the situation to further destroy the most amazing team ever. Bowlen, who was still under hypnosis, was made to hire McDaniels and act like a chicken whenever he saw John Madden. This explains why you never see Bowlen and Madden together.

McDaniels’ first step was to call the Bronco star quarterback, Jay Cutler, and tell him that he would be required to do musical theater in Boise, ID during the offseason. He then leaked a story about what a wonderful singer and actor Matt Cassel was.

After Cutler left in tears, McDaniels called Brandon Marshall and told him the police were looking for him. Marshall fled to Florida and hid under his mother’s bed.

As the final part of McDaniels’ master plan, he brought in a bunch of proven veterans and promising young players and made them compete for jobs.

Jay Cutler was replaced by Kyle Orton

After the hiring of Josh McDaniels, Jay Cutler was traded to the Chicago Bears. Jay Cutler was the only player on the Denver Broncos roster. A little known fact is that Denver was actually built by Jay Cutler while he was attending Pro Bowl games as a fetus.

It is a well known fact that John Elway only won his Super Bowls because he was actually Jay Cutler. Cutler was such a good quarterback that he often completed passes for both teams.

When Cutler was traded to Chicago, everyone in Denver tried to shoot each other but they all missed because Jay Cutler was the only guy in Denver that could hit anything.

Cutler was traded to the Chicago Bears for an armless, legless man named Kyle Orton who used to ring the church bells at Purdue. His scouting report said, “We don’t know who this guy is but his face sure rings a bell.”

Brandon Marshall holds out

Brandon Marshall, the only other player for the Denver Broncos, decided that while he was hiding under his mother’s bed, he should ask for more money. Everybody laughed.

Predictions

Kyle Orton will be mistaken for a tackling dummy and killed by his own team. Orton’s brother, who patterned his life after Kyle, will, upon hearing the news, throw himself from the church tower at Purdue. The obituary will read, “…he was a dead ringer for his brother.”

His backup, Chris Simms, will gradually lose all his internal organs during the season.

Brandon Marshall’s apparent longest touchdown of the season will be called back when referees realize that he didn’t catch the ball but instead caught Chris Simms left kidney.

The Raiders will still finish last in the division.

Rating Players: The Best Basketball Player Ever

Randy Garcia — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 16:50:53 -0400

I read a very good article recently about rating players the other day and it got me to thinking about the whole psychology of picking a "best" player.

For me, the best kind of player is epitomized by guys like Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson. Oscar and Magic were the kinds of guys who set up their teammates and destroyed opposing defenses by forcing the defense to guard everyone on the floor.

When Magic Johnson’s Lakers met the Celtics of that era, the Celtics had arguably better personnel at every position except perhaps at point guard. The Lakers won two of their three matchups largely because of Magic’s skill at getting his entire team involved in the scoring.

When I was younger, the kind of player teams tended to build around was the big center like Wilt Chamberlain or Kareem Abdul Jabbar. These were guys who could dominate the game with high percentage inside scoring, great interior defense and control of the boards.

During these earlier eras there were guys like Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Dr J, etc.; guys who were great scorers but not necessarily considered essential to the building of a championship team. At the beginning of the 90’s this perception changed when the Chicago Bulls began to win championships lead by the scoring of Michael Jordan.

Since what has become known as the "Jordan era" it has become popular to point to Jordan’s stats as proof that Michael Jordan could lay claim to being the best player ever.

Was he really, or is someone else the best player ever?

Championships

One of the biggest considerations people make in considering the worth of a player is the number of championship teams that player has been on.

There are some respects of this consideration that are legitimate, but just because a player was on a championship team does not mean that he was a great part of why that team won the championship.

Players like B. J. Armstrong, Luke Walton, Kenny Smith and Robert Horry all have been on championship teams, yet no one would consider them as great players. Robert Horry in particular has seven championship rings, one more than Michael Jordan, and only two less than Bill Russell.

The consideration of championships only makes sense if the reverse is true, that a team could not have won a championship if a particular player had not been there. Certainly in the case of the 2000 Lakers championship team, the absence of either Shaquille O’Neill or Kobe Bryant would have made a championship unlikely for that team. They probably would have not even made it to the playoffs.

One of the oddities of the Jordan era is that he briefly retired after the first run of three championships. The 1993-94 Chicago Bulls ended up with a comparable record to previous Bulls championship teams and only exited from the playoffs after a hotly contested second round playoff series without Jordan or a replacement for him.

Statistics

In the rarefied air at the top of the statistics charts, one would expect to find the most important players in the game, right? Kareem leads all scorers followed by…Karl Malone. Then we get to MJ and Wilt, but Wilt only played 14 years while the three all time scorers ahead of him all played over 17 years (don’t forget Jordan’s two years off).

Hold on though, Wilt was the all time best rebounder and Kareem was third. Jordan comes in at slightly less than half of the rebounds Malone had, and just a few more than a fourth of the total that Wilt had.

Jordan’s one statistical lead over the other fourall time scoring leaders is in steals. Kareem has more assists and blocks. In Wilt's case, they didn’t keep track of assists and blocks back then.

If we go by stats alone then it's between Kareem, Wilt, and Karl Malone.

Intangibles

Older folks remember Oscar Robertson. During the ‘80s people remember guys like Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and John Stockton. These are the guys who don’t get big stats but seem to be a key part of the majority of plays.

You can’t think of the ‘80s Lakers without thinking about Magic flipping a pass to the open man on a break.

Say the ‘80s Celtics and there is an image of Larry Bird making a clever pass into a teammate open in the lane.

Two of the most successful teams of all time revolved around two guys that were considered the best at making their teammates better. If you are looking at stats, neither Magic nor Bird looks all that great, but their impact on the game was arguably far greater than their stats.

There is a whole class of players who dominate games but rarely show up well in stats. Does that make them of less quality than the great scorers? Hardly.

While guys like MJ and Wilt were dominating scorers, players like Magic got all of their teammates involved and broke down team defenses.

Who was the best?

This is usually where the author pulls this or that argument out to support their favorite player. The reality, as I’ve demonstrated, is that there are valid arguments for several players. Basketball is a team sport and sometimes great team play is not a measurable quality.

I received a comment the other day on a different article saying that the commenter had stopped watching NBA games for two years after the player he thought was the best ever retired. When I read that I actually felt bad for the guy, he had grown so fond of one player that the game itself was secondary.

I think that’s the danger of this whole notion of the best ever. If you truly think you’ve seen the best ever then why watch any other games? Personally I’d prefer to think the best ever has yet to play and that until every game has been played we can’t possibly know who that best player will be.

NBA Marketing: How Creating Michael Jordan Almost Ruined Basketball

Randy Garcia — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 18:54:41 -0400

Every so often some sportscaster will ask, "What is wrong with basketball?"

This question is usually followed by some harangue about fundamentals not being taught or the lack of respect coaches get. Inevitably some ex-basketball player from the "good old days" will tell a story about how this or that coach abused his players and that somehow the ability to be abused and like it created better players.

Back in those early years, and really right up to the beginning of the 1980s, basketball was still a sport struggling well behind baseball, football, and in many places hockey for recognition. Many of basketball’s legendary players were hardly well known in their times, and by the '70s basketball was struggling with the perception that, as Sports Illustrated writer Frank Deford put it, it was a “game perceived...for blacks on drugs."

The NBA’s biggest marketing coup early on was accidental, fending off the ABA. It was the ABA with its wide-open style of play and flashy stars who really began to draw attention to professional basketball. After the NBA-ABA merger in 1976, the NBA adopted ABA innovations like the three-point line and the slam dunk contest, but the initial rush of interest began to die down. Within a year the NBA was floundering again.

In 1979, something wonderful happened in college basketball that would change everything. Two great college players on two great college teams played against each other for the first time. The big star for Indiana was Larry Bird, and for Michigan State it was Magic Johnson. That meeting is still one of the most watched NCAA finals games in history.

The two great college rivals ended up with the two teams who constituted the NBA’s greatest rivalry: Bird went to the Celtics and Magic to the Lakers.

The two players would renew that rivalry in the NBA, meeting in the Finals three times in 1984, 1985, and 1987, with Magic’s Lakers winning two of those meetings. In all, the two players' teams won eight of the NBA finals in the decade of the '80s, with the Lakers earning five of those titles.

In 1976, the US had lost for the first time in the Olympic basketball finals under somewhat controversial circumstances. The US boycotted the 1980 Olympics, so by 1984 there was a lot of pressure on the US to field a great team.

At the time Olympic basketball was still restricted to amateur players. The 1984 team would yield several future NBA stars. The one that shone the most that year was a young Michael Jordan, who led the team in scoring.

David Stern became commissioner of basketball in 1984, and with the renewed Lakers-Celtics rivalry and an influx of NBA players that included the star of the 1984 Olympic team, Stern found a very effective marketing strategy.

For the first time games were not billed as team versus team, but player versus player. The 1987 Finals weren’t the Lakers versus the Celtics, but Magic versus Larry. Every team had its star, and every matchup was a matchup of the stars, not the teams.

The NBA was promoting grudge matches; players that would never actually cover each other in a game were billed as rivals. Patrick Ewing versus Magic, Charles Barkley versus John Stockton, Jordan versus Hakeem Olajuwon. In this star versus star world, people began to think of teams as extensions of their star players.

At the beginning of the 1980s, fans could name all the players on their favorite teams. By the end of the '80s, there were many more fans, but fewer could name more than a couple of players in their favorite teams. This marketing scheme worked beautifully from the mid '80s until the late '90s.

Unlike the '80s, the '90s featured no great rivalries. The Chicago Bulls dominated the '90s by winning six championships in the decade, only missing out on the first couple of years in the decade and a couple of years during Jordan’s first retirement. The NBA’s push of its stars became a push of one star, the star of its dominant team.

Michael Jordan’s endorsements had always been very successful. His athleticism was a fantastic advertisement for Nike, and it didn’t hurt that Spike Lee was producing the ads for that campaign. That success prompted Gatorade to offer MJ $10 million to advertise their product in 1991.

A clever adman had realized after hearing the Monkey Song from Disney’s classic The Jungle Book that a lot of people wanted to be like Mike. Disney wouldn’t let him use their song, so he wrote his own, and the "be like Mike" campaign was born.

By the middle of 1993, Jordan had won three NBA Championships in a row and been a part of the first Dream Team in the Olympics. More importantly, he was the most recognized athlete in the world, as Gatorade told everyone they wanted to “be like Mike,” and McDonald's advertising had him beating Larry Bird in superhuman games of HORSE.

The NBA was flourishing, and Michael Jordan was at the center of it all. Then Michael dropped a bomb. Michael’s father James had been murdered in July of 1993, and Michael, being close to his father, needed a break. For the first time, David Stern realized that with Michael Jordan gone, he had no advertising centerpiece.

The NBA’s ratings plummeted in 1994 from 17.9 in 1993 to 12.4 the next year. Every good player, from Jerry Stackhouse to Grant Hill, was being billed as "the next Michael Jordan." When Jordan came back, they rose again briefly but plummeted once he left.

The NBA had invested so much in building Michael Jordan as the greatest player that now the fans could care less about any other player. They had done such a good job of building around one great player that young players began trying so hard to imitate Michael’s game that they neglected their own strengths. Guys like Harold Miner and Isaiah Rider came and went.

The quality of play was better than ever, but without an exact duplicate of Michael, the perception was that players were not as good. It’s no wonder fans are disappointed; they’ve been told for over decade that they want to be like Mike and how great Mike was. You could literally have the second coming of Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, etc., and people’s conditioning will have them saying things like, "Yeah, but Michael did it this way."

Russell, when asked what he said when his grandchild asked him if he was as good as Jordan, answered, “I told him, that’s the wrong question. The question is, was Michael Jordan as good as me.”

Ask yourself: "Could Michael have guarded Wilt in the post? Could Michael have given out as many assists as Magic or played in the post as well as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar?" The answer is no; they were different players playing different positions in different circumstances playing in different eras with different rules.

The best player in basketball is not a title, but a curse, an albatross that the NBA hung around its own neck. There is nothing wrong with basketball—it's just bad marketing.

Hating Kobe: A Writer's Guide

Randy Garcia — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 16:48:11 -0400

Since the end of the 2009 NBA Finals, a lot of writers who have hated Kobe are no longer able to say that Kobe never won without Shaq. With Kobe’s personal problems behind him and a growing consensus that he is the current best player in the league, what is a sports writer who hates Bryant to do? Fortunately there are a few strategies that can allow a sports writer to express that hatred while still pretending to be a serious analyst.

Kobe is not Michael Jordan

Seriously, they don’t even look alike.

Not only that, but Michael could beat Kobe any time. Okay, well not now, but if Kobe were to go back in time Michael could beat him one on one. That could happen.

Besides, Michael was on the absolute worst team. He won all of his championships by himself. His teammates used to sit in their stands and root for the other team, except for Pippen who sold beer and peanuts while guarding everyone on the court.

Kobe had teammates who played but they sucked and weren’t as good as Michael's team that sucked even more. Kobe only got his championships because he was surrounded by all-stars on a team that sucked but didn’t suck as bad as Michael's team that was one of the greatest ever.

Michael’s stats were so good that they are better than Kobe’s stats. Who cares if Michaels stats aren’t as good as Kareem’s or Wilt’s, they are better than Kobe’s so that makes him the best ever.

Forget about all that team play, Michael was a better scorer so there. Everybody says that Michael was bigger but Michael actually had smaller feet than Kobe which makes him even more magical.

Kobe is a bad person

Nobody likes Kobe. All of his teammates and ex-teammates who say he is a great guy are lying. Commentators who say he is a great guy; lying. The only guy who really knows is Shaq because he had a feud with Kobe and even though he now says Kobe is a great guy he is lying.

Kobe was such a bad person that he broke up the Lakers and then reformed them because he wanted to humiliate them. He made Phil Jackson go away in tears just so he could beat up Rudy Tomjonovich.

He’d have gone all Kermit Washington on Rudy T but Kobe was so evil that he got the Lakers to make him a scout. Then he got them to bring Jackson back and made him date Jeannie Buss. He is evil.

The worst of all was when Kobe raped a virgin in Colorado whose only crime was that she had sex with four or five guys before Kobe. It was such a clear cut case that the charges were dropped, not because Kobe might have been innocent but because he is pure evil.

She was victimized by a legal system that considers people innocent until proven guilty. Evil!

Kobe played on all star teams

Seriously, Rick Fox, Derrick Fisher, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton. Nobody can beat those guys.

They are absolutely amazing. Luke Walton’s father was an all star.

It’s just not fair. Michael Jordan didn’t even have a team, he just showed up by himself and played one on five, often with no shoes to cover his tiny magical feet.

Shaq owned the team when Kobe got his first championship. Shaq used to score 120 points a game while Kobe would just run in occasionally and try to trip him. Often Kobe would play for the other team and Shaq would have to lock him in his trunk at halftime.

Kobe is mentally unstable

Anyone who is driven to such perfection can’t be stable. Just look at Bill Russell. Hell Michael is an axe murderer, and have you ever noticed that you hardly ever see Cookie or Larry Bird’s wife.

They even made a movie about the devastating effects of the quest for perfection and how it perverts obsessive athletes. Ace Ventura: Pet Detective

Kobe has some kind of disease

All you have to do is just look at pictures of him in 2000 and now. He looks like he’s nearly a decade older and he’s lost his hair. I think its AIDS.

The Lakers will eventually lose

Take heart Kobe haters. Eventually the Lakers will fail to win a championship and you can blame it on Kobe. Until then, feel free to creatively use this guide as a sort of template to keep your hopes alive.

NBA Finals—Lakers-Magic Game Five: Lakers Win 15th Title

Randy Garcia — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:49:34 -0400

I suppose a relative blowout to end a series that started with a blowout makes sense.

Honestly though, I must admit that watching Orlando just make a token effort in the game seemed almost an insult after their effort in the previous three games.

Orlando started with energy and looked sharp early, but then LA took over in the second quarter with a 16-0 run. It became obvious that Orlando wasn’t going to fight in the second quarter when Courtney Lee was the only thing keeping the Magic in the game.

For the final time, Dwight Howard was still not unstoppable

In the third quarter, the frustration of the young center started becoming glaringly obvious. Midway through the third, Howard was on the bench with four fouls and a look on his face of resignation.

Howard finished the game with 11 points and ten rebounds.

The Laker big men were active the entire game, comfortably controlling the paint. Dwight Howard looked lost and confused out there for long stretches of the game, including the entire fourth quarter.

Howard’s lack of composure gave the Lakers a 47-36 rebounding edge.

The Lakers devastated the Magic from the three-point line

At one point in this game, the Magic were one for 11 from the three-point line. They finished shooting .296.

Meanwhile, the Lakers shot .500 from the three-point line. Overall, the Lakers had 11 less threes and made the same number of them as the Magic.

The Magic were getting called for fouls when they committed them

Give Phil Jackson credit.

He got fined again for complaining about the referees, but, for the first time in the last four games, the Lakers got more free throw opportunities than the Magic.

Coincidence?

I don’t think so.

Why the Lakers won this series

Orlando had a great run this season and really stepped it up in the postseason. The problem is that Orlando was heavily dependent on a couple of key matchup advantages, namely Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu.

They were able to let Howard just rebound, play defense, and get his points in the middle off of putbacks because they could count on teams not being able to cover one or both of their forwards.

The Lakers won this series because they had enough size to compete with Howard for rebounds and keep him from getting putbacks and enough versatility between Gasol, Odom, Ariza, and Walton to cover the Magic forwards.

Lewis couldn’t take advantage of his perimeter play, which resulted in his shooting poorly in all but two of the games in the series. Hedo was craftier but had to work hard for his offense which caused him to disappear late in games.

Offensively, the Lakers just had too many options for the Magic to deal with.

Lewis’ defense was a liability against Gasol and Odom. Turkoglu was abused by Ariza in the last two games either from downtown or, when Hedo tried to play close, on the drive.

Fisher made key shots, Walton was tough in the post, and Kobe just kept scoring.

Orlando did well to compete hard in the middle three games of this series, but at the end they just didn’t have enough.

Lakers-Magic Finals, Game Four: The Heartbreaker in Orlando

Randy Garcia — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:11:41 -0400

I’ve seen a lot of NBA Championship games and this has to rank as one of the best. A great start by the Magic, a third-quarter comeback keyed by a player who had been quiet in the Finals followed by a hard fought fourth quarter and overtime. This game was a grueling contest in which both teams left everything on the court.

Dwight Howard still not unstoppable

If there was ever a game for Howard to dominate this was it. All three Laker big men were in foul trouble in the second quarter yet Howard shot only 5-of-12.

The Lakers have other players than Kobe

Trevor Ariza personally brought the Lakers back in the third quarter. Derek Fisher hit key shots at the end of the game and in overtime. The Lakers got a great team performance in the second half and that was the difference in the game.

Kobe was a mediocre 11 for 31. The Lakers would not have won without great overall play

The Magic can keep up their great shooting

Rashard Lewis went 2-for-10. Rafer Alston went 5-for-13.

When the Lakers were in foul trouble early the Magic couldn’t capitalize. In the second half the Magic had no answers while the Lakers were getting strong performances from everyone they put on the floor.

Overtime belongs to the Lakers

The Lakers scored 12 points to the Magic’s four points. Howard and Turkoglu took wild shots, the Magic committed fouls at inappropriate times and Pietrus lost his composure at the end while committing a flagrant foul.

The Lakers are in control of this series

Game Four was a crucial game for the Magic. If there was to be a comeback in this series the Magic needed to have this game. Now with a 3-1 lead the Lakers have to win one of three games while the Magic would have to sweep.

Over the course of the playoffs the Magic have been very resilient. I think they’ll play hard in Game Five but if the game is close the Lakers will win.

Stan Van Gundy will throw a lot of different looks at the Lakers in Game Five. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Magic have some early success but fade in the second half.

Lakers-Magic Final Series: There is Magic in Orlando, Notes on Game Three

Randy Garcia — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:57:32 -0400

As a Laker fan I was not happy with the result but as a basketball fan this was a great game. Home cooking was the difference here. Orlando’s search for a point guard was answered and we learned a lot more about the two teams.

Once again Dwight Howard was still not unstoppable

Howard had his best game of the series so far with a relatively quiet 21 points. The Lakers swarming defense kept him from taking too many shots. He did go five of six while gathering 14 rebounds.

Orlando fans shouldn’t get too excited though, both Bynum and Gasol were in foul trouble for much of the first half and Howard was still unable to capitalize.

Howard did draw 16 fouls and Orlando shot exactly four more fouls that LA in a game they won by four. Hmmmmmmm….

Orlando does have a point guard

In the previous two games Orlando got very little production from its point guards. In Game Three Rafer Alston showed up early and often to the tune of 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting. The ominous note in the background was a completely ineffective Jameer Nelson.

Orlando’s bench can shoot well

Sort of. Orlando’s bench scored 24 points but 18 of the came from Michael Pietrus. Once again Orlando fans will want to temper their excitement by realizing that the Laker bench scored exactly as many points with Farmar and Odom each getting 11.

Why Laker Fans should be happy about this game

Orlando had everything working but barely won a four point game. While Orlando shot .625 from the field the Lakers shot .513 yet the Lakers were close at the end because they had 14 more shots in the game.

So far this playoff season the Lakers have had at least one game in each series in which they played poor defense and lost the game. Each time they have come back with much stronger defensive efforts.

What we should expect in GameFour

Orlando played Game Three in much the same way they played Game Two. The big difference was that they were at home and got good play from Pietrus and Alston. Don’t expect anything different from them, they found something that worked.

The Lakers got away from going inside early in Game Two and they continued that trend in Game Three.

The result was that Howard didn’t pick up early fouls and was effective as a primary rebounder. His rebounds resulted in a lot of fouls, he shot 16 in the game. Expect the Lakers to go straight at Howard more to get him playing tentative as he did in Game One.

For all the stats Orlando had this was a close game. The biggest adjustment the Lakers will make is better defensive effort. The Lakers should win a close Game Four.

NBA Finals Lakers-Magic: Magic Is Still Just A Name, Notes on Game Two

Randy Garcia — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 01:06:52 -0400

Game Two was a great game. The Lakers played well and the Magic not only showed up but almost won. Here are just a few observations about game 2.

Courtney Lee did not personally lose the game

Though many Orlando fans will blame this loss on the missed lob attempt at the end of regulation the fact is that they still had overtime. The Lakers won this game in overtime when Orlando just couldn’t find any scoring in the final minute.

Dwight Howard is still not unstoppable

Even without Bynum for most of the game and Howard in the game for all but a minute he was unable to be a strong factor for the Magic. Gasol scored 24 points and gathered 10 rebounds to neutralize Howard’s 17 points and 13 rebounds.

Unlike game one Orlando didn’t make the mistake of trying to force the ball into Howard. Unfortunately Howard still had seven turnovers in the touches he had.

Orlando can be competitive if they hit their threes

Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu shot 50 percent from three point land which was phenomenal. The rest of the Magic made one out of 12 three point shots. The Lakers shot half as many threes and actually had one less shot for the game while shooting exactly one more field goal.

The only real difference was that the Lakers shot a higher percentage from the field and from the line.

Can Orlando play better defense?

Over the course of the playoffs this year the Magic have held their opponents to an average of 44.8 percent from the field and 32.4 percent from three point land. The Lakers in the first two games of the Finals have shot just over 46 percent from the field and 33 percent from the three point line. The Magic may not have any better defensive options.

Predictions for Game Three

As expected the Magic used more high screen rolls and picks to free up Lewis and Turkoglu for perimeter shots. Unfortunately they got very limited offensive production from anyone else on that team other than Dwight Howard. Alston and Redick particularly hurt them with a combined 1 of 10 from downtown.

I wouldn’t expect much different from the Magic. Their defense is working and I think they’ll be able to count on better shooting from some of their role players. The bad news is that they wasted great shooting nights from Turkoglu and Lewis. Even at home they won’t be able to keep up 50 percent shooting from the three point line.

Down 2-0 the next three games are all must win games. The Lakers, being the best road team in the league this season, could well close out the championship in Orlando and will do so if Orlando loses the next game. Expect real desperation from Orlando.

Game Three will be very tough. It will turn on whether Orlando can keep themselves from being overly aggressive and committing dumb mistakes. Late in Game Two Howard committed a frustration foul, literally throwing Gasol out of the way to get a rebound. That may just be an indicator of how Game Three will go.

Los Angeles-Orlando: Notes on the Lakers Magic Series

Randy Garcia — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:48:42 -0400

Before the first game was played there were a lot of predictions about what would happen in this series. Now that the first game has been played let’s look at some of those predictions and how they played out in game one.

Dwight Howard will dominate inside

Dwight Howard has been hyped as perhaps the greatest post player in the NBA. Some pundits had him dominating the Laker big men and shutting down the Lakers in the post.

What actually happened was that Howard was revealed as having a very limited inside game. When Bynum was on the court Howard was completely unable to get to the basket.

In fact Howard was completely over matched by Bynum when the young center was on the court. Howard was slightly more effective against Gasol but the swarming Laker defense limited him to one-of-six shooting.

To his credit Dwight Howard was the most effective rebounder in the game but even that is more reflective of his being the only player on his team really making an effort to rebound other than Marcin Gortat.

Rashard Lewis’ perimeter game would negate Pau Gasol’s advantage in the post

This was one of the most one-sided match ups in the game. Lewis was not only overmatched against Gasol’s inside game but Gasol was able to bother Lewis enough on the perimeter to help limit him to making only two-of-10 shots.

One of the big factors in Gasol’s favor in this matchup was the Lakers defensive rotation, even when Gasol didn’t get out to bother Lewis another Laker would show and rush him.

Lewis had an even worse time with Odom. Lamar Odom blew past him several times from the perimeter for easy scores and took advantage of Lewis’ poor rebounding technique to gather in 14 boards.

Hedo Turkoglu would take advantage of Trevor Ariza

Actually this one was true in the first quarter. Unfortunately after Ariza picked up a couple of early fouls Luke Walton came into the game and shut Turkoglu down. Walton then showed off his post up game. After the first quarter Turkoglu was a non-factor in the game.

Mickael Pietrus would have the same success against Kobe that he did against LBJ

Pietrus was the defensive darling of the Cleveland series with his play against LBJ. The whole idea was that Pietrus would force Kobe into shooting a low percentage. Unfortunately for Orlando fans Kobe is not LBJ.

Kobe displayed a variety of outside shots that LBJ could never think of making and when Pietrus tried to close out Kobe simply blew past him to take short mid range shots or easy strolls to the basket.

The Magic’s three point shooting would be a decisive edge

The Magic shot .348 (eight of 23) from three point range, not a bad three point percentage really. The big problem for the Magic was that they couldn’t get anything inside and ended up shooting only 30 percent overall from the field. The lack of any post up play or dribble penetration killed them.

The Lakers have no killer instinct, they can’t hold a lead

The Lakers outscored the Magic in every quarter but the first. Even though the Lakers started the third quarter with a ten point lead they outscored the Magic by 14 points in the third quarter.

Predictions

The Magic’s approach to game one of this series was entirely based on the regular season games. Orlando counted on their perceived advantage in the post and the notion that Turkoglu, Alston and Nelson would be able to penetrate the Laker defense at will.

The Laker’s ability to shut down any Magic offense in the paint during this first game was as big a factor as Kobe’s scoring, maybe even a bigger factor.

Dwight Howard does not have the post up skills to consistently score on the Laker bigs and the Magic have no other reliable post up players. The only real option the Magic have to create penetration is screen and roll to try and create mismatches when the Lakers switch.

The Laker defense against the pick and roll is for the screen defender to show on the other side of the screen and stop the roller. I would expect to see Nelson/Alston run a lot of screen and roll situations with Turkoglu to try and get Turkoglu going to the basket covered by the Laker point guard.

The Magic should also use perimeter screens to free their three point shooters, especially in the Lewis-Gasol matchup where Lewis speed across the baseline and the difficulty Gasol will have getting through screens should create some open looks.

If anything the Lakers will improve in the post in game two. Bynum has been slowly gaining confidence ever since the end of the Denver series and game one only added to that. Howard, as the only effective inside player the Magic have is going to feel pressure to avoid fouls and pressure to be more aggressive, which will result in more fouls.

Personally I doubt there will be a Magic victory in game two, outside shooting teams tend to struggle on the road and the Magic really are reliant on perimeter shooting. I do look for a closer game purely because the Magic cannot shoot any worse than they did in game one.