Bleacher Report - Articles by Marco Radenkovich

Giving Thanks: To Jim Hendry, Cubs GM

Marco Radenkovich — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:29:30 -0500

The 2003 season changed Cubs' fans lives forever.

We all know about Steve Bartman, Moises Alou, Alex Gonzalez, Mark Prior, and Dusty Baker in Game Six of the 2003 NLCS.

Each of them had a role in the epic collapse, and each has left a sour taste in the mouths of Cubs fans.

The one man who nobody talks about is the GM at the time, Jim Hendry.

Hendry, who is sitting on a hot seat right now, has taken a lot of criticism in the past six months regarding the roster he put together. After back-to-back division championships, Hendry's 2009 Cubs "failed" by only winning 85 games and missing the playoffs.

New owner Tom Ricketts has closed the checkbook as of now, making Hendry's job a lot harder this offseason. Some have speculated that Hendry isn't here for long, but assuming he is released in the next 10 months, the legacy he leaves is quite great.

It's not easy to evaluate a GM from a fan's perspective. Fans don't truly understand the job, and there are a lot of external factors that play into every move. The owners, coaches, and players all have somewhat of a say into personnel moves. But the job of the GM is to evaluate what's right for his team, and if it fails, he is ultimately responsible.

Hendry assembled a 2003 roster that was filled with talent. Kerry Wood, Prior, and Carlos Zambrano made up a great/young part of the rotation. Joe Borowski came out of nowhere to save 33 games, and Kyle Farnsworth was on top of his game. Hendry acquired Aramis Ramirez to hit fifth behind Sammy Sosa and Alou and acquired Kenny Lofton to play center field for the injured Corey Patterson.

Five outs away, the Cubs were suddenly the team of destiny. This was the team that was going to break the curse. This was the team that was going to win the World Series.

Then the world came crashing down on the Cubs, and many Cubs fans.

Cubs fans have been bitter ever since, always remembering 2003. Before 2003, nobody booed. Before 2003, Cubs fans were pretty peaceful and never really expecting much. They were "lovable losers."

Now look at us, a little more than six years later. After three division titles and four seasons of over .500 baseball, we're complaining that moves aren't made before the rules allow, we're complaining that there's nothing going on in November, and we're complaining that we're going to suck in 2010.

We feel as if we deserve something after all the letdowns of prior seasons, when in reality, we aren't deserving of anything.

Baseball is a form of entertainment, and Hendry brought that back to the North Side of Chicago. The excitement of winning paired with the disappointment of losing has been too much to take for some, and that's why the bitterness exists.

Before you just complain about Hendry and show him the door, take a look at what he's done for the Cubs organization. Although this year sucked, it's a blessing to complain about 85 wins. C'mon, Pittsburgh hasn't won 85 games since Barry Bonds left.

His 2008-09 offseason was bad in hindsight, but you can't ever fault the guy for working his tail off to get the best players to Chicago. He signed a guy (Ted Lilly) while he was in the hospital. That's the grittiness all Cubs fans love, and for some reason, everyone forgets it.

He may not be the right man to work with Ricketts, but let's look at the stamp he's left on the team. The bad contracts are awful, but nobody talks about the change in culture.

That's why this Thanksgiving, I'm giving thanks to Jim Hendry.

H/T to ACB—http://www.anothercubsblog.net/

Perception Issues: Career Year vs. Bad Free Agent Signing

Marco Radenkovich — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 18:30:03 -0400

Cubs fans are great. But they're incredibly inept at judging a player's talent, as most fans can be. We're going to compare two players. One would have an approval rating around 20% and one would have an approval rating around 85%.

My favorite book in the world is entitled, "The Book" by Tom Tango. Rather than go through the whole book, I'll go to my favorite part: wOBA.

wOBA is a great stat because it adds value to OBP. You see, OPS is an OK stat, but it equally weighs both OBP and SLG. Getting on-base is more valuable, statistically and conceptually. To see how wOBA is calculated, click here.

Player A: .248/.382/.385 7 HR, 23 RBI

Player B: .298/.353/.418 7 HR, 37 RBI

This would show most people that player B is more valuable, because he has a higher average and more RBI. In fact, player B is having the best offensive season of his career. He's definitely more valuable from an offensive standpoint... right?

Not so fast. Here's player A's wOBA

This says, based on the MLB average, that player A has actually been above average throughout the year. But, people think he's been trash. Player A is Milton Bradley, Steve Stone's favorite. Yes, this has been the worst stretch in Bradley's career. Thus, even at Bradley's worst, he's still better than average.

Here's Player B's wOBA

This is Ryan Theriot. Wow. Who would have thought, right? There's more to hitting than the average fan sees. So, if everyone can get on Bradley for playing "like trash," then I can get on Theriot for barely being above average offensively.

If we didn't have access to these statistics, more fans would think that Theriot is having a great year while Bradley isn't worth a dime. That's so far from the truth, and hopefully people stop getting on M.B. when the blame of the Cubs' poor start can be placed on more than just him.

Weather and Offense in Chicago Go Together: Both Cold

Marco Radenkovich — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:56:00 -0400

After a terrible 4-1 loss to the cross-town rival White Sox, Cubs fans had seen enough. They wanted answers, and they wanted them now.

Before complaining about the issues of this team, let’s look at some positives. One, the Cubs are blessed to have six starters, and those six have the best ERA of any starting pitching in baseball. So yes, that means the team has depth in the rotation, something new to the Cubs in recent years.

Their 'pen has been okay, not as bad as people believe. Kevin Gregg has shown signs of improvement, and Carlos Marmol always seems to go through a funk in the middle of the year. Angel Guzman has been solid and Jose Ascanio has been a pleasant surprise. If they can get Aaron Heilman right, this 'pen won’t look too bad. The problem is, the team currently has one lefty in the 'pen, and he isn’t that good at retiring left handed batters.

But the offense is atrocious. It just seems as soon as the Cubs get runners on first and second with nobody out, they press. They swing at terrible pitches, roll over on pitches down the middle, and end rallies rather quickly without scoring.

Fans want to know what is going on with this team. I don’t have the answers, but I have a plan to solve this funk.

Dear Jim Hendry: Don’t do a thing.

Yeah yeah, you may say I’m taking the rather optimistic view on things. Things aren’t magically going to get better, I understand that. Yet, there are some signs of hope.

Things will get better because some of the players have shown improvement. The best two hitters on this team currently are Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee. Bradley is riding a six-game hit streak, and during that stretch he’s hitting .440. In the last 28 days, Lee is hitting .351, getting on-base at a .440 clip, and has a .527 slugging percentage. They both started off slow and now are getting real hot.

Even though these two are trying to carry this team, there are a whole group of guys not carrying their weight. Soriano is 14 for his last 99. Soto is slugging .235 with runners in scoring position. Theriot is streaky; Fontenot is, too. Aaron Miles is straight awful.

Cubs fans want a big bat for the lineup. I was lucky enough to go to two games in the last week, and I heard fans complain about the offense. Their solution: Get a big hitter.

Now, it’s an easy thing to say when your favorite team is 14th in the NL in runs, and hitting .244 overall. But, there isn’t room for a new, big bat.

The outfield is making a combined $40 million, therefore the Cubs aren’t about to trade for one. Soto just won Rookie of the Year, too. As far as the infield is concerned, the weak spot has been second base. Fontenot has a respectable .257/.352/.428 line at second against right-handed pitching but he’s a miserable 4-for-30 against lefties. So making a move for a big bat at second base makes sense, right?

First, second basemen that can hit for power are rare. Secondly, if a team has one, they aren’t going to be in a rush to move them. Dan Uggla is not about to solve any problems.

Even if the Cubs sign Pedro and he pitches well, moving Harden would be tough. I don’t know of too many teams that will deal for him and give up a big bat at the same time. He would have more value in the offseason, but we do not have that luxury, as he is a free agent at the end of the year.

So, Jim, making a move just seems wrong. If you can go get an arm in the 'pen, do it. But that’s really all you can do. These players have proven track records, and we’ve seen them succeed. Fans just want to make moves. This isn't feasible, no matter what you think.

As Cubs fans, we’ve patiently waited 101 years for a World Series. I think we can wait another week or two for these players to get going.

Baseball is a goofy game. As these guys try to break out of their slumps, they do funny things. Bradley has started the gold thong talk. People will laugh about it, but it has nothing to do with the actual thong. What it does is relax the players. That’s what this team needs.

The at-bats we’ve seen over the past two months have been so bad you wonder why they get paid. It’s because they’re pressing. As they start to relax, they’ll start to play better, and we as fans will begin to relax.

But perhaps the best advice through all of this is to listen to Ozzie Guillen and what he has to say about the Cubs.

"People in Chicago, just relax. Quit panicking. Worry about something else," Guillen said. "Worry about the family, the kids going back to school and having good grades. Don't worry about the Cubs. They'll be fine."

For the first time ever, Ozzie is right. Believe in the guys that won 97 games last year. There are 101 games left to go, and they’re going to be real fun.

Armchair GMs: Let's Support This Team

Marco Radenkovich — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 02:29:56 -0400

In the world of blogs and message boards, Armchair GMs are seemingly everywhere. You know who they are, the ones that sit in their Lay-Z-Boy's and comment on signings of their favorite teams. They usually have no proof to them, and are driven based on perception, but sometimes they can be right.

And, I think all of us can be "GMs" of some sort. I think of myself not as a GM, but as an informed fan, who can comment beyond what's on the surface.

I'm sure most of the city did not back Jim Hendry's signing of Milton Bradley this off-season for the obvious reasons. He's hurt, he fights with umpires, doesn't play great defense, etc. I backed the signing, saying at the time that I thought he was most athletic of the available right fielders, and the best hitter of the right fielders.

Some will say, Raul Ibanez is the best hitter. I would say that he's definitely been better than Bradley, no matter what stat you look at. But, Ibanez was never an option, Cubs fans. He signed very early in the offseason.

But, I keep preaching that stats will return to the norm, if the conditions are right. And, I'm not just saying this because I'm defending Milton, the stats show it! I'm so confident that he'll begin to pound the baseball, that I guarantee the Cubs will go to the playoffs—and Bradley will carry them.

Some people won't agree with me, and I don't want everyone to agree. But let's show the guy a little support? If you have ever watched baseball before, it's obvious that he is pressing. After throwing the ball into the stands, he tried too hard in his next at-bat. He's trying to make the city love him, but everything he does is wrong.

How many times have you heard that it's not about the name on the back? It's about the name that's on the front. And as long as he has the C on his chest, he's a Cub. As fans, we have to support him, and not continue to push him down that path of mediocrity, like so many other right fielders we have had.

I don't care who you wanted as our right fielder. It's over. We, as true Cubs fans, need to show support for our players, and hope that it will help them regain confidence and help this team win games. That's the goal here, right?

I don't care if you can brag all around your cubicle that you called Milton Bradley's failures. I don't care that you said we shouldn't have traded DeRosa and cut ties with Kerry Wood. I didn't agree with everything Hendry did, either.

Criticize Hendry all you want, some of it is definitely deserved. I'd rather see that than repeated bashing of players. But, it's not easy running the Cubs, especially this off-season with everything that was going on. You really think you could do better? Please.

Let's continue to root for the Cubs, and get a little patience. This team will go as far as it wants to go. Let's be there to support them.

Memo to Fake Cubs Fans: I Hope You All Fall off the Bandwagon

Marco Radenkovich — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:45:14 -0400

To begin with the obvious, this season hasn’t began like most Cubs fans expected. Cubs fans have the right to be pissed off at the lack of production on the field. If you pay money for tickets, go ahead and be pissed off.

But let’s be rational about it, OK?

I don’t have enough time to type out all the misfortunes and mistakes of 2009. It’s been incredibly frustrating, especially watching games every single day. Especially with the third highest salary in the major leagues.

I'm upset, too. There are plenty of times where I pull my hair out—every game. I'm upset currently watching the Cubs give up another Randy Wells win. The manager cannot manage, the players have lost all fundamentals, and even the commentators have gotten upset.

But I still watch. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I still watch. I don't ever think about not being a Cubs fan.

Yet, so many fans have “jumped off the bandwagon” and say that they “aren’t Cubs fans anymore.” People have started to buy the opponents' jersey shirts to wear to Wrigley because they are so pissed off. This thinking makes me more upset than the Cubs' recent play.

Listen, if you think this season is bad, you have no idea.

It’s June
The Cubs are ONLY 4.5 back
Everyone on the team seems to have slumped at once, and most will come back

And that’s the thing that can sometimes suck about being a Cubs fan. All the real fans will be there, supporting the team, while all the fake ones will jump off the ledge.

The real fans are the ones that stuck with the team through all the hard times. This isn’t even that hard of a time! There have been many, many more.

2008 – After almost a dream season, the Cubs get swept out of the playoffs
2007 – The Cubs fight to win the division and get swept out of the playoffs
2006 – The team lost 96 games. 96.
2003 – Alex Gonzalez, Steve Bartman, etc.

And all of the ones that happened before this time was before I was born. And everyone knows what season’s I speak of.

Speaking of 2006, I was at the final series of the regular season. The Cubs beat the Rockies, and the whole stadium, which was sold out, walked out singing “Go Cubs Go.” Say what you want about the song, but that’s what real Cubs fans are. That’s what they do.

They’re not the ones who go to the games in their flip-flops, white sunglasses and gelled hair. They’re not the ones that try to suck down as many Mai-Tais in two hours. They’re the ones that bleed blue and red. You never see any of the true fans where opposing team colors to Wrigley.

Even if this season brings failure, I’ll be back next year, the year after that, and the year after that, cheering this team on. But, this Cubs team will make the playoffs, and all of you that were so pathetic will jump right back on the bandwagon, pretending you never jumped off.

Let's go Cubs.

Minor Move For a Major Hitter: Jake Fox Called Up

Marco Radenkovich — Wed, 27 May 2009 15:18:13 -0400

The Cubs have made a few minor moves this morning, calling up Jake Fox, Andres Blanco and Jason Waddell. Going down to Iowa was Bobby Scales, who had been battling the flu for a few days, and Neal Cotts, who had been battling his command.

Fox, 26, is making his long-awaited 2009 debut with the Cubs. In Iowa, he was hitting a robust .423 with a .503 on-base percentage and slugging .886 with 17 home runs.

Sure, you might be saying that the PCL inflates offense, he's 26 years old, and his "true talent" level is nowhere close to this. But it isn't as if Fox is just hitting minor league pitchers–he's absolutely killing the ball.

It's rare to find guys that rake in the minors and have long lasting careers at the major league level, but Fox has the ability to stay here.

Last year, Nelson Cruz of the Texas Rangers went nuts in AAA, earning a promotion this year. Now, he's hitting cleanup for a first-place club.

Jack Cust was a big power hitter that was labeled a "AAAA" player. Russell Branyan has been accused of the same thing. But these guys have made it.

Sure, they aren't stars, but I don't think anyone is expecting Jake Fox to become a star.

However, he can help this club with his stick. Unfortunately, he cannot play catcher as the picture shows. Yet, he will help out at first, third and the corner outfield.

Let's hope this minor move starts a major win streak. Go Cubs!

This Is Old News: Jake Peavy Ain't That Good

Marco Radenkovich — Wed, 27 May 2009 02:28:12 -0400

It's official, per Jake Peavy's approval, the White Sox will have acquired the 27 year-old right hander. The deal, so far, includes Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and two lower level prospects. Lower level means that they're in A-ball, not that they aren't that good.

This is bittersweet to me, as this trade would mean that Jake Peavy would go to a city rival. It's better than a division rival, especially short-term.

I think Kenny Williams is one of the best GM's in baseball. He's done a lot of great things for the White Sox. The worst trade he made—Carlos Lee for Podsednik and Vizcaino—can even be spun in a good way. But what he's trying to do here is go after a big name and hope he hits a home run with Jake Peavy.

Peavy has the name that the fans will notice. Peavy has the accolades as the 2007 Cy-Young winner. I'm going to do nothing but sit here and criticize this trade from the White Sox perspective.

This is a move by KW and Ozzie Guillen to say, "WE NEED STARTING PITCHING...NOW!" That's the problem, the Sox, even with Peavy, aren't favored to win the division or make the playoffs.

The Sox are, well, an 80 win team. If you trade your controllable pitching for a $16 million pitcher, you're destined for failure. This team is "built to win now" but isn't going to win now. Why not keep the studs you have?

There are plenty of reasons why I don't like Jake Peavy. I've been doing "research" on him for months, wondering if he was going to come to the other side of town.

He has a 3.73 K/BB ratio at Petco, while only surrendering a home run per 56 plate appearances. On the road, those numbers shift dramatically to 2.53 K/BB and a home run per 30.6 plate appearances.
His ERA at Petco is 2.81 but on the road it's 3.82
OPS is .120 higher on the road
WHIP is .21 higher on the road.

I would argue that he is definitely not the ace that everyone thinks he is. Yet, he will continue to be paid as such, all the way until 2012 and maybe 2013.

Over the next three-and-a-half years, he’s owed about $57 million, and that jumps to $75 million over four-and-a-half years if the White Sox are required to pick up his 2013 option in order to get him to agree to the deal.

It’s a huge monetary commitment, and while the White Sox certainly have money, that kind of required cost is a drag on Peavy’s value.

Now factor in what the Sox have to give up, and it's not looking like a good deal, at all.

Aaron Poreda has the ability to be an absolute stud. In his last AAA outing, the 22 year-old struck out 12 in seven innings. The lefty has the ability to be a top of the rotation pitcher for a long time, and again, is cost controlled.

He has to develop an out-pitch before he can be brought up to the majors, but he's worked on it, and has shown incredible improvement.

Clayton Richard, by no means, is a stud. But he's controllable for the next 4-5 years, at a very cheap price. Straight up, you're probably getting more value, long-term, than you are with Peavy. I mean, the cost gap between the two is nowhere near the talent gap.

Richard doesn't have as high of a ceiling as Poreda, but can probably top out as a fourth or fifth starter. 175 4.50 ERA innings at $350K? That's all that the Sox would need. Or would you rather have Jake Peavy with a 4.20 ERA in 190 innings getting paid $16M? You be the judge of that.

The other two prospects matter, although I don't think it's going to be Gordon Beckham, Jordan Danks or even Tyler Flowers. If any of those three go with to San Diego, Kevin Towers will be doing somersaults. It's a great move by Towers.

I've been wrong in the past, but I really feel that this deal is a no-win for the White Sox. I don't get why teams pay stud pitchers long term deals at ridiculous dollar amounts. Look at what the Red Sox are doing, signing guys (Penny, Smoltz) on the cheap, while re-stocking the farm system (Bowden, Buchholz, Bard, Masterson).

Anyways, even if he did end up going to a division rival, I think I'd be okay with it.

In the end, I don't think Peavy will say yes to this deal. If deals are coming in from the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals (three NL teams) and teams that are in a better position to win than the Sox, then why would Peavy do this deal?

He already has expressed his concern for pitching for Ozzie Guillen, too. If I were a Sox fan, and Peavy nixes this deal, I'd breathe a sigh of relief.

Perception Issues: Matt Cain's Real Value

Marco Radenkovich — Wed, 27 May 2009 02:02:59 -0400

As we approach June, teams all around baseball begin to get just a little nervous about where they sit in the standings. Rumors begin, and fans begin to comment on those rumors. Obviously, there is nothing wrong with that.

I am one that particularly pays attention to what happens to every major league team around the deadline. After keeping up with trading deadline rumors and hot stove rumors in the winter, I've noticed one thing: Fans perception of their prospects and young players is mind boggling.

Since I follow the Cubs a lot, I'll take you through two failed trades, one for Brian Roberts and the other for Jake Peavy. I was not a fan of either, but these are common things fans said would be suitable for those players.

For Roberts and Bedard—Cedeno, Pie, Marshall, Gallagher.

Let's just look at this two years later. Obviously, it would have been a horrible trade, especially when you look at where Cedeno's and Pie's career's are at. Marshall and Gallagher would be a good move, but not for those two players.

Even at the time, we knew that Pie's career path went down Corey Patterson's lane and Cedeno really had nothing.

One year later, Jake Peavy's name was thrown out there. People thought DeRosa, Cedeno, Pie, and Marshall would be enough to get him. Completely wrong. That deal was no where close to being discussed. Vitters and/or another prospect (Jay Jackson, Jeff Samardzija) would have also needed to be included.

Point is, fans for the most part, have no idea how good their young players are. I mentioned Peavy in a post below, and why I don't think he's worth your minor league rotation. Fans also don't get that when speculating about a deal, you cannot just include random top prospects in your organization.

Matt Cain rumors have begun. Matt Cain is a good, young, controllable pitcher. He's had great success as a major league pitcher (please, don't look at his win/loss numbers) and is getting a lot of good luck this year. Most fans will look at his numbers and say, "Yes, trade the farm to get him!" but in reality, he's not pitching THAT well.

Cain is 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA through 8 starts. People will eat that up. People will eat up the fact that he's only 24. But, what they don't know is that his FIP is at an all-time high. He's allowed more home runs per nine this year than in any previous year.

He's struck out fewer batters per nine innings than ever before. He's walked just about the same. His BABIP is way low at .276, and is stranding 89 percent of base runners. Now, I'm not saying that Matt Cain is dog crap here, but I'm saying that he's gotten a lot of luck, luck that he DEFINITELY didn't have last year.

Those are not the only causes for concern. Fangraphs tells me that Cain's slider has just stopped moving, his velocity is down about 2 MPH on the fastball, and that right-handers are hitting him way harder than before.

These numbers just aren't sustainable, and ZIPS is projecting a 3.82 ERA the rest of the way, and I fully agree with that. If you were to tell fans that, they wouldn't be so hot over him joining a rotation, if it meant trading the farm. Ironically, that's the same ERA that Jake Peavy has away from Petco.

Although it seems as if I'm being awfully tough on Cain, he's learned how to pitch effectively in the bigs as a 24 year-old. There's something to be said about that. I think he can be a very good No. 2 starter in the NL, but he just isn't the clear-cut ace that everyone hopes he'll be.

So go ahead, Brewers fans, trade Hardy, Villanueva, Gamel and Jeffress to get Cain. Do you know that these players are a good fit for the club? In this case, yes, these pieces could help the Giants. But don't say that I told you so when you get a pitcher that's very similar to Floyd Youmans. Where the hell did Villanueva get value, anyway?

Finally, hat tip to the Giants for attempting to move him when his value is highest. Maybe other teams won't see that he's only around 90-91 instead of 93-94 and has stopped throwing his slider. If you, as a GM, can get a team to sell the farm/other young players with similar service time, good for you.