Bleacher Report - Articles by J Ellet Lambie

Fantasy Baseball – Hump Day Look See 6/10/09

J Ellet Lambie — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:10:18 -0400

The Hump Day Look See appears every Wednesday at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com

It’s time again for the hump day look see, a random collection of stats and thoughts to help get you through your fantasy week. The look see will appear every Wednesday evening for the remainder of the season. You can make sure you catch each installment by grabbing a free email subscription through feedburner or picking up the RSS feeds on the main page.

If your roster has been ravaged by injuries lately (like many of mine) there may be some good news coming soon. Pat Burrell and Jason Bartlett of the Rays are both expected to return within a week, giving some punch to the Rays and fantasy lineups everywhere. While Burrell is middle of the road fantasy outfielder, Bartlett has been among the best shortstop options in the game so far this season.

Chris Iannetta has returned to the Colorado Rockies, now if only his bat would do the same. In all seriousness, he has eight home runs so far in 108 at-bats. If he can even get the average back to the .264 level of last season and stay close to this power pace he could be a solid reserve backstop option going forward.

Ricky Nolasco recently returned from his brief “get it together” trip to the minor leagues. In his first start back with the big boys Nolasco lost, I know, I’m shocked too. Kidding aside, he allowed 10 hits and three walks in seven innings while fanning four and surrendering two earned runs (three total). It could have been better, it could have been worse.

Rich Harden will come off the disabled list Saturday and face the Minnesota Twins. Hopefully he can make it through next week without returning to the disabled list.

Marcus Thames returned to the Tigers' lineup this past Saturday after missing seven weeks with an abdominal injury. He’s 5-14 with one home run, one RBI and two runs scored since then. He’s swinging hard, well, and could provide a little short-term pop while your remaining DL’d outfielders heal up.

The last week has been a good one for Colorado Rockies with middle infield eligibility. Ian Stewart is the No. 1 ranked player in all of Yahoo fantasy baseball over the last seven days, hitting .419 with four bombs and 12 RBI. Teammate Clint Barmes hasn’t been far off the pace with 10 RBI and a .483 average in that span.

Nobody has struck out more hitters in the last week than you guessed it...Scott Baker of the Minnesota Twins.

What, you didn’t guess Scott Baker? Don’t worry, nobody did, but alas he’s fanned 18 in the last week while picking two wins.

Before you get overly excited, remember that accounts for half of his 2009 total and that his record now stands at 4-6 with a 5.59 ERA.

Now let’s get to the hump-day staple, the top 10 hitters and pitchers of the last week in Yahoo Fantasy Baseball. As always players are listed by rank, according to Yahoo, not me, based on the stat categories in a standard 5×5 roto league. Note that Josh Beckett is the #1 pitcher for the second consecutive week. I’m going to mail him a cookie.

Top 10 Hitters of the Last Week

#1 Ian Stewart, COL — .419, 4 home runs, 12 RBI’s, 9 runs, 0 SB

#2 Adam Lind, TOR — .500, 4 home runs, 7 RBI’s, 8 runs scored, 0 SB

#3 David Wright, NYM — .647 (11-17), 1 home run, 5 RBI’s, 6 runs, 2 SB

#4 Scott Podsednik, CWS — .323, 1 home run, 2 RBI’s, 6 runs, 4 SB

#5 Andre Ethier, LAD — .435, 4 home runs, 6 RBI’s, 5 runs, 0 SB

#6 Prince Fielder, MIL — .500, 3 home runs, 6 RBI’s, 6 runs, 0 SB

#7 Lyle Overbay, TOR — .455, 2 home runs, 9 RBI’s, 6 runs, 0 SB

#8 Hunter Pence, HOU — .391, 2 home runs, 6 RBI’s, 6 runs, 0 SB

#9 Chipper Jones, ATL — .450, 3 home runs, 9 RBI’s, 4 runs, 0 SB

#10 Ben Zobrist, TB — .300, 3 home runs, 7 RBI’s, 5 runs, 1 SB

Top 10 Pitchers of the Last Week

#1 Josh Beckett, BOS — 2 wins, 17 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, 13.2 IP

#2 Scott Baker, MIN — 2 wins, 18 K’s, 3.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15 IP

#3 Jered Weaver, LAA — 2 wins, 16 K’s, 2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 13 IP

#4 Jeff Niemann, TB — 1 win, 9 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP, 9 IP

#5 Jon Lester, BOS — 1 win, 11 K’s, 1.00 ERA, 0.44 WHIP, 9 IP

#6 Ted Lilly, CHC — 1 win, 11 K’s, 0.66 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 13.2 IP

#7 Andrew Bailey, OAK — 3 saves, 6 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP, 5 IP

#8 Jonathon Broxton, LAD — 1 W, 2 saves, 8 K’s, 2.25 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 4 IP

#9 Brad Bergeson, BAL — 1 win, 9 K’s, 1.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 15 IP

#10 Johnny Cueto, CIN — 2 wins, 8 K’s, 1.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 13.1 IP

Until next time kiddies.

Hazaa

Have a question, comment or useless statistic you want to share? Leave your feedback in the comments below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

The State of the Detroit Tigers 1/3 Through the Season

J Ellet Lambie — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 13:22:07 -0400

Over the weekend the Detroit Tigers played their 54th and 55th game of the season, effectively the 1/3 marker of the 2009 season. So once again today we’ll take a look at the highlights and lowlights so far, the teams ranks and grades and a few projections and predictions going forward.

This feature will appear every 27 games, you can jump in the way back machine and read the 1/6 state of the Tigers here.

Overall Record — 30-25, 1st place in the AL Central

Team Batting Average — .264, tied for 9th in the AL, tied for 14th in MLB

Team ERA — 4.13, 2nd in the AL, 8th in MLB

All three of these indicators are more positive than at the 27 game mark. The team is five games above .500 with an ERA and batting average in the upper half of major league baseball.

The Tigers 4.13 ERA is down from 4.16 at the 1/6 point, the .264 team batting average is up three points. Most importantly the Tigers have moved from 2nd place in the AL Central to having a 3.5 game lead.

Let’s look a little deeper:

Home Record — 17-11

Road Record — 13-14

Division Record — 11-9

This seems to be on pace with the 27 game numbers. Coincidentally the Tigers are 14-4 against the AL West, the best statistical record of any team in MLB against a single division not their own. Let’s go a little deeper yet:

Day Games — 15-5

Night Games — 15-20

One Run Games — 6-6

Last 10 Games — 4-6

Again the Tigers play exceptional baseball in the daytime, slightly below average at night. The 6-6 record in one run games concerns me, but it could be a lot worse. Now let’s break down the pitching a bit, shall we?

We’ll start with the starting pitching stats *NOTE* I’ve included Zach Miner and his numbers in the bullpen statistics. He has had four starts on the year but has appeared in nine games in relief.

Starting Pitching

22-19 record, 3.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 277 hits allowed, 105 walks issued, 249 strike outs in 307.2 innings pitched.

Very respectable on the surface. The K:BB ratio of the rotation sits at 2.5:1, 34 total home runs have been surrendered by the rotation (22 by Galarraga and Porcello) and the win total would equate to roughly 88 victories over a full season. Now let’s examine the bullpen.

Relief Pitching

8-6 record, 4.68 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 182 hits allowed, 90 walks issued, 134 strike outs in 178.2 innings pitched.

I’m not impressed. Any bullpen that is allowing more than one and a half baserunners per inning is asking for trouble. Especially when you consider that often times managers go to the bullpen when the starting pitcher has put a man or two on base in that particular frame.

The bullpen K:BB ratio is very low at 1.48:1, indicating that even with multiple power arms in reserve this ballclub does not have the control required to kill an opponents rally consistently.

Both the starters and relievers allow a home run approximately every 9 innings pitched (1 per 9.05 for the starers, 1 per 9.40 for the bullpen). Now let’s move on to the offense.

Team Hitting

VS. right-handed pitching — .258 (352 for 1362), 41 HR, 195 RBI’s, .329 OBP, .402 slugging %, .731 OPS, 137 BB, 252 strike outs.

VS. left-handed pitching — .281 (135 for 480), 15 HR, 67 RBI’s, .354 OBP, .443 slugging %, .797 OPS, 51 BB, 99 strike outs.

While the Tiger’s hit 23 points higher, slug 41 points higher and have an OPS advantage of 66 points against lefties these numbers can be deceiving. When you examine the ratios of at-bats per HR, RBI, K and walk the numbers are strikingly similar.

The Tigers have hit one HR every 32 at-bats against lefties, one every 33.22 at-bats versus right handers. The team has one RBI per 7.16 at-bats against lefties, one every 6.98 at-bats against righties.

In terms of strike outs and walks—the Tigers whiff once every 4.85 at-bats and walk once every 10.41 plate appearances against lefties, where as they fan once every 5.4 at-bats and walk once every 10.94 plate appearanced against right handers.

The Tigers have played with more balance in this regard over the last 27 games than the first 1/6 of the season. In the first 27 games the Tigers scored one run every 6 at-bats against right-handed pitching, one run every 7.6 at-bats against left handed pitching. That split after 55 games is now 6.58/6.87 respectively.

The offense has struggled in recent walks, regardless of which hand the opposing pitcher was using. In their last 15 games the Tigers have scored two runs or fewer seven times and three runs or fewer ten times—the team scored one run five times in that span, or in 1/3 of their last 15 games.

Now let’s take a look at the studs and duds so far.

The Pitching Studs

Justin Verlander — He leads the major leagues in strike outs with 97, has a 3.26 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and a .233 batting average against. He hasn’t lost since April 17th and should have eight wins instead of six, had the bullpen been able to do their job.

Edwin Jackson — His 2.16 ERA is the 2nd best in the AL and the 3rd best in all of MLB. He boasts a WHIP of 0.98 and a strike out to walk ratio of more than three to one.

Like Verlander, he should have more than his current total of six victories, but has lost out on multiple chances due to poor bullpen work and a lack of run support. He’s allowed more than three earned runs only twice in a dozen starts.

Rick Porcello — While the youngster has looked more hittable in his last two starts he still has an ERA of 3.98 and six victories through the first week of June. It’s fair to say he’s exceeded expectations to this point and shown signs of growth that are very encouraging.

The Pitching Duds

Armando Galarraga/Dontrelle Willis — The back end of the rotation buddies are a collective 4-9 with ERA’s of 5.31 and 6.84 respectively. Armando has shown improvement in his last two starts, Willis was impressive in his second start of the season, but both have been wildly inconsistent and more often than not they have each been well below average pitchers.

While I hope that Rick Knapp can fix this pair, he’s definitely got his work cut out for him.

Brandon Lyon — I’ve heard the cries that he’s overworked and overwhelmed, I’m not buying it. With the exception of one bizarre game where he threw 60 pitches his workload has been no more taxing than a pitcher of his experience and arm strength should be able to shoulder.

In 23.2 innings over 19 appearances he’s 1-3, has an ERA of 5.70 and has 13 walks against 10 strike outs. Pathetic, plain and simple.

Zach Miner — I realize he’s been asked to fill several roles, that Miner has gone along with being moved from the rotation to the bullpen and back and forth like a lawn sprinkler, and that he has done it without much complaining. That’s nice. Someone give him a sticker, but certainly not as a reward for his performance.

While his record may be 3-1 he is certainly not pitching that well. His 5.29 ERA and 1.82 WHIP are atrocious. He’s allowed 44 hits and 18 walks in 34 innings.

Opposing hitters are batting .314 against him. He may have a rubber arm, but that doesn’t mean we should be seeing it at the major league level.

The Hitting Studs

Miguel Cabrera — Among regulars he leads the team in batting average (.352), on-base % (.421), slugging % (.565) and OPS (.986). While Brandon Inge and Curtis Granderson have more hom runs Cabrera leads the team in RBI’s and has a significantly better walk to strike out ratio (22 walks, 28 K’s) than either of them.

Brandon Inge — speaking of the little engine that could, Brandon has been an unexpected offensive star to this point. While his average has dipped from its’ high point in early May, he is still at .277, well above his career mark. His power numbers have been impressive, it seems his modified plate approach and patience are paying dividends.

Curtis Granderson — while his batting average has fallen to .264 he’s found more of a power stroke and has quietly stolen 10 bases in 12 attempts. He leads the team in runs scored (37), home runs (13) and is tied with Josh Anderson for the team lead in stolen bases. This is the beginning of Curtis Granderson, three hole hitter.

The Hitting Duds

Placido Polanco — it kills me to put him on this list, but through 55 games “Polly” is hitting 52 points below his career average. His OBP is a dismal .302 and he’s provided little in the power department, which is to be expected. I believe he’ll get back on track soon, but at this point he’s been a disappointment.

Gerald Laird — a .234 average with two home runs and 14 RBI’s from a guy with 141 at-bats in this lineup is not exactly stellar. He’s playing above average defense and drawing walks (19 so far), but his bat has been slow and quiet.

Dane Sardinha — I know it’s mean to pick on both the starting and back-up catchers, but seriously, he’s hitting .115 with 13 strike outs in 26 at-bats. I’m fairly certain random fans pulled from the Comerica Park stands could put up these numbers.

The Grades:

Offense — C

The Tigers have scored 277 runs to date. The league average in the AL is 274. They have scored the third most runs in their division, behind Cleveland and Minnesota, ahead of the White Sox and Royals.

The Tigers rank 9th in the AL in batting average, 11th in hits, 9th in OPS, 8th in strike outs, 8th in walks and 8th in on-base %. Certainly sounds like a middle of the road, average set of numbers to me. In the last two weeks the Tigers offense has been offensive to watch, if you’ll pardon the pun.

Defense — B plus

The Tigers rank 3rd in the AL in fielding % (.988), 2nd in defensive efficiency (.705), have made the 3rd fewest errors and have turned 53 double plays, good for 5th in the league. Gerald Laird and Dane Sardinha have thrown out a combined 29% of attempted base stealers, which is tied for 5th in the AL.

After some early struggles the defense has rebounded nicely. The youth and range in the outfield have helped the pitching staff more than their inexperience has hurt it. Brandon Inge is making highlight reel plays on a regular basis, Adam Everett and Placido Polanco seem to be playing well together and Miguel Cabrera is getting better every day.

Pitching — B minus

While Verlander and Jackson have been spectacular and Porcello has been a pleasant surprise, there are many question marks behind them. The back end of the rotation has been hit and miss, as has the bullpen.

I contemplated grading lower here, but when considering that 40% of the rotation (Verlander and Jackson) are 10-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 104 K’s since May 1st, it just seemed a bit too harsh. The staff as a whole is a bit overrated and needs some tuning up, good thing I have faith in Rick Knapp.

Management — C

For every positive surprise there has been a negative reality. If I were grading Jim Leyland alone I would go higher, perhaps a B- based on how many veterans he’s been without and how many other veterans he surely wishes he was without.

The organizational side is included here and frankly, I’m not pleased with Dave Dombrowski at this point. Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Guillen, Brandon Lyon and let’s not forget Gary Sheffield are on the payroll, with huge financail consequences, with very little if any positive impact to the team on the field.

If this team aims to contend management will have to make changes, until it does the grade will stay in this general vicinity.

Overall — B minus

Yes, I realize this team has a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central. I also realize it is early June and that lead is thanks in large part to a pair of starting pitchers being unhittable for six weeks. If either Verlander or Jackson comes back to earth this team could sink like a stone.

The defense is improved, the offense should get better and the bullpen is a crap-shoot. All in all while the team is atop the standings, they have played like a 4th place team many times this season.

To be fair, there have been nights where this club could have beaten any other in the major leagues, but not nearly often enough. The Detroit Tigers are at a fork in the road, in 27 more games we should have a good idea which path they’ll take on the home stretch.

Going forward

In the next 27 games the Tigers will face the following opponents: Chicago White Sox (4), Pittsburgh Pirates (3), St. Louis Cardinals (3), Milwaukee Brewers (3), Chicago Cubs (3), Houston Astros (3), Oakland A’s (3), Minnesota Twins (3) and the Kansas City Royals for 2 games, three total in that series.

Nineteen of these games will be on the road, where the Tigers are one game under .500. The combined record of these opponents as of this morning is 246-258. Only three of these teams currently have a winning record, the Cardinals, Brewers and Cubs.

In the last installment I predicted the Tigers would be 30-24 at the 54 game mark, turns out I was wrong, they were 29-25. After yesterdays victory in game 55 the Tigers are 30-25. I’ll take being off by one game.

As the 81 game mark is the numerical half-way point of the season I’ll predict at that juncture the Tigers will be 44-37, meaning they will win 14 of their next 26 games.

Also in the 1/6 mark review I predicted Placido Polanco would pull out of this uncharacteristic funk and be hitting .300 by this point. Oops. Looks like I missed the boat entirely on that one, as his average has actually sunk to .252.

I’m going to stick with a prediction of improvement here, although I don’t think he can add 48 points in 26 games. Instead I’ll say he’ll reach .300 by the 108 game mark, or 2/3 of the way through the season.

It should be an interesting month and change until the all-star break. From there the non-waiver trading deadline will sneak up on us and we’ll be in the middle of pennant race time before you know it. Here’s hoping the Tigers will be a part of all of these exciting events.

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Tagged: Adam Everett, al ranks, armando galarraga, Brandon Inge, brandon lyon, Carlos Guillen, clete thomas, curtis granderson, dane sardinha, dave dombrowski, Detroit Tigers, detroit tigers grades so far, detroit tigers team batting average, detroit tigers team era, dontrelle willis, edwin jackson, gary sheffield, gerald laird, hazaa, jeremy bonderman, jim leyland, josh anderson, justin verlander, Miguel Cabrera, nate robertson, Placido Polanco, rick knapp, rick porcello, the state of the detroit tigers: 1/3 through the season, tigers split stats, zach miner

Five For Fighting with Big JP from Always A Tiger

J Ellet Lambie — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 19:01:09 -0400

Welcome to another installment of Five For Fighting, this time with a twist. While this segment normally covers all things fantasy baseball I’ve decided to throw a change-up here and devote this piece to talking about the Detroit Tigers. The premise remains the same – I trade five questions with a talented writer from the web and we post each others answers for you to debate.

Joining me this time is John Parent, better known as Big JP, from Always A Tiger. John is a devoted family man and Tigers fan from Ohio (don’t hold it against him) who brings an insightful and down to earth point of view to his coverage of the team he loves. Big thanks to John for taking the time to participate in this experiment. You can read his answers to my questions below and my answers to his questions here.

Now let’s get to it….

1 – Of the three young outfielders platooning for the Tigers at the moment (Josh Anderson, Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn) which, if any, do you believe have a long-term place on this team and why?

Raburn has the ability to play second base, and he is the emergency catcher, so he has the most versatility, but his skill set makes me think of him as more of a National League kind of player. His offense has been unimpressive, though he shows occasional pop. Plus he just turned 28 years old, so I’m not sure he improves much more and as a right handed hitter, I think there are players with significantly more potential in the minors.

Anderson and Thomas share many qualities, both are LH hitters, both can play either corner spot. While Thomas has shown himself to be a better defender, with a better arm, Anderson has great speed and has the ability to play CF.

While Thomas may have more pop in hit bat, I’ll take Anderson long-term. Thomas has shown that he is not a leadoff hitter, and I have been encouraged by what I’ve seen when Anderson does get a chance in that spot. This team needs Curtis Granderson in the middle of the order, Anderson provides the best possible solution as a leadoff hitter.

2 – If you could go back in time knowing what you know now, would you convince Dave Dombrowski to keep Gary Sheffield?

The short answer is no. Coming into camp this year, I had a good feeling about Sheffield, and felt he may have a good season. That being said, the team had decided that a repeat of last season could not happen, and needed to add defense and flexibility to the lineup. Jettisoning Sheffield provided a way to do both. They already had another Sheffield type player on the roster in Marcus Thames, and the move would allow them to use the DH spot to keep Magglio and Guillen healthy, they thought.

Obviously, things haven’t quite worked out that way. Thames was never healthy and evidently neither was Guillen. But you certainly couldn’t have anticipated that Sheffield would have stayed healthy, either. And the way he was hitting in Lakeland did inspire much confidence. While it hurts to waste all that money they are still paying him, they were able to add Anderson to give them a good LH bat with great speed.

I think with the return of Thames, the offense will get at least as much help from him that they probably would have gotten from an unhappy Sheffield stuck DH-ing. Sheffield doesn’t strikeout as much as Thames, but pop-ups don’t help alot, either.

3 – Who will have a more positive impact on the starting rotation going forward – Armando Galarraga or Jeremy Bonderman?

That question may hold the key to the rest of the Tigers’ season.

There has been a lot of talk about the struggles of Galarraga recently, but let’s not forget he had similar struggles last May, as well. He has shown signs of life in his last two starts, and while he may not be ultimately as good as his numbers were in April, I suspect he is not as bad as they were in May, either. If he plays on a team with a better offense, I don’t think there would be so much worry about him, as he is basically a fourth starter, but with the offense struggling, you almost need your number four to be a fourth ace, which he is not.

Bonderman has always had potential, but he has also always had a good fastball. He is the real wild-card here. If he has found a changeup, and can command his pitches, he can be a quality pitcher. But he is being asked to learn how to pitch a different way than he ever has, and be good enough to consistently get major league hitters out. I think that’s asking a whole lot. I’m just not sure how much faith to put in a guy that never really lived up to his potential when he had electric stuff, now that that’s gone, how much can you expect from him?

So with two guys who haven’t inspired much confidence, I hope the answer is Bonderman, but I think it’s probably Galarraga.

4 – How many wins do you think it will take for the Tigers to make the playoffs, and can this team win that many games as put together today?

Fortunately, they play in maybe the worst division in baseball, so that helps. The only real threats I see are the Twins, barring a trade or two by Chicago. Cleveland has zero pitching by anyone other than Pavano and Lee, and that includes the bullpen. Kansas City probably has enough pitching to compete, but has little depth and are fading fast. Zack Greinke has shown he’s human lately, and the Royals can’t afford him to be human.

The White Sox have the homerun power, and always play well within the division, especially vs. Detroit, but Floyd and Danks have come back to earth a bit this year, and they have several holes in the lineup. Minnesota will win a bunch of games at home. They are playing .500 ball right now, and really haven’t had the great pitching they are used to. If they get the bullpen straightened out, they have the potential to take off and win the division going away.

I think it will take 89 wins to take the Central, and I don’t think this Tigers team can get there. A lot of that will be based on how well guys like Bonderman and Willis perform the rest of the way. Someone on this team has got to hit, though. They cannot continue to flounder at the plate or they have no shot. The flaws on this team are glaring. They have no backup catcher, and are in dire need of a productive corner outfielder. Thomas is a nice player, but he isn’t the answer. If the Tigers want a real shot at playing in October, they have to make a move.

I anticipate a trade or two to clear some excess staring pitching (Miner and/or Galarraga) and to bring back a LH bat that can play OF. If they do that, and add a backup catcher, they can get there. If not, I don’t see how they can hold off the Twins.

5 – What’s it like being a Tigers fan living in Ohio? Do you root for Ohio teams in other sports or is it all Michigan?

I follow the Tigers because that’s how I was raised. My Grandpa was born in Detroit and it was he and my Dad that taught me about baseball. I loved listening to Ernie Harwell on WJR, which came in loud and clear down here. Ohio is full of Ohio State fans. Those same people are fans of the Indians and Browns. In my family, however, it always always a good day when those teams lost.

I fell in love with the Tigers thanks to my family, but I also follow Penn State, the Houston Rockets and was a huge fan of the Houston Oilers. I came to those teams on my own. In large part because I have found Ohio fans to be some of the most obtuse fans I have ever encountered. If their team is lousy, they will never admit it, and if it’s suggested that there could be improvement, then you must not be a real fan. That is a poor line of thinking. I don’t see a problem with recognizing when your team has flaws, it doesn’t make you a bad fan, it makes you reasonable.

There was a line in the movie “As Good as it Gets” when Jack Nicholson’s character (a writer) was asked how he wrote the female characters in his books so accurately. His response fits well in describing Ohio fans. He said, “I think of a man, and then I take away reason and accountability”. It might make me unpopular in sports bars, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.

-end-

So there you have it. Big thanks again to John for giving his time to opine. Make sure you check out his blog Always A Tiger, and feel free to browse the other half of this segment here.

Until next time kiddies….

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Are you a baseball blogger interested in being a part of a future five for fighting segment? Are you lonely and have access to obscure baseball statistics? leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Tagged: a tigers fan in ohio, AL central, always a tiger, armando galarraga, can the tigers make the playoffs?, Carlos Guillen, clete thomas, curtis granderson, dave dombrowski, Detroit Tigers, five for fighting with big jp of always a tiger, gary sheffield, jeremy bonderman, john parent, josh anderson, marcus thames, MLB, ryan raburn

Fantasy Baseball -- I'm Your Pusher Man

J Ellet Lambie — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 19:40:56 -0400

Pssst.

Yeah, you…..come here for a minute. I got something I want to show you.

Now listen, I know why you’re here, you know why you’re here so there’s no need to be squemish about this. You’re jonesing, I can see it all over your face. That fantasy baseball team of yours is in trouble. You’re sweating for a .300 hitting middle infielder, or maybe a cheap RBI man. Don’t worry, I got your hookup.

What’s that? You need OPS, baby I got all the OPS you need, and cheap. Home Runs, Wins? I got it all. Oh you want steals, the heroin of fantasy baseball itself….yeah, I gotcha covered.

I know your roster is tight, you don’t have much to trade, that’s cool. You just need a little something on the cheap to get you through until your guys come off the DL? I’m talking free agent pool fixes here. These cats are all available in at least 50% of Yahoo standard leagues. So just tell your fantasy baseball pusher-man what you need and let me ease your pain.

RBI’s

What do Casey Kotchman, Michael Cuddyer and Nick Johnson have in common? They each have 20 RBI’s in the last month and are widely available at the touch of your add/drop button.

6/7 UPDATE: Casey Kotchman was placed on th 15 day DL with a leg injury, he is eligible to return June 16th.

Cody Ross has 33 Rib Eyes on the year and 18 since May 6th – he’s available in 87% of Yahoo standard leagues.

Your looking for something younger? Ok, be that way – Gerardo Parra has 17 RBI’s in the last month, Andy LaRoche has 16. Both should play regularly going forward and have high ceilings. Parra is owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues, LaRoche 8%.

Batting Average

So all those Adam Dunn/Chris Davis types are dragging down your average eh? Try a little Aaron Rowand. He’s hitting .366 in the last month and .302 on the season. He’s a career .284 hitter two years removed from a .309 season in which he also hit 27 bombs and drove in 89 runs. He’s available in 84% of Yahoo leagues.

Randy Winn and Adam Kennedy are both hitting .340 over the last month. While neither is in my opinion a good long-term fix, either can get you through for a month or so until you get someone on your DL back or can pull off a trade. They have something else in common – they are both available in 83% of Yahoo leagues.

You want the real sneaky stuff...ok, take a look at Christian Guzman. He’s a .333 hitter entering Saturdays game with 19 multi-hit games (out of 40 played) and seven games with three hits. If he can stay healthy you can plug him in for .300 + all summer long. He’s available in 59% of Yahoo leagues.

Wins

That pitching staff got you down? Let me see what you got there….damn, that is ugly. It’s cool, I can fix that too. Now don’t freak out when I mention this name, you promise? OK.

Carl Pavano.

Calm down, calm down. The former Yankee bust has six wins on the season and four in the last month. He has a 56 to 15 K to BB ratio to boot. He makes me nervous too, I get it, but he’s out there in free agent land in 81% of leagues and has more wins in the last month than guys like Jake Peavy, Johan Santana and Josh Beckett.

Matt Palmer of the LA Angels is 5-0. Who? Exactly—if you don’t know him neither do the opposing hitters. His little run will come to an end at some point when hitters figure him out or when the regular starters get back to form, but until then he’s a short-term boost. You can pick him up in 79% of Yahoo leagues.

Scott Feldman of the Texas Rangers is owned in 9% of Yahoo leagues. He himself owns five wins against zero losses – sound familiar? He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any of his eight starts so far. Yeah, he’s unproven and a bit risky, but sometimes that’s what it takes to find a diamond in the rough.

OPS

I’m gonna give you a real under the radar guy right up front, don’t tell anybody though—Andruw Jones. His .949 would be among the AL leaderboard if his 90 at-bats qualified.

With Josh Hamilton out for who knows how long expect the reclamation project to get swings in Arlington in the summer heat, where the ball flys like it has a passport. He’s owned in 5% of Yahoo leagues.

Lyle Overbay quietly has a .942 OPS and is also available in 95% of Yahoo leagues. Josh Willingham is the owner of a .926 OPS and is owned in 4% of leagues. I got one more for you, it’s kinda sneaky though.

Travis Hafner.

Fresh off the DL and available in 73% of Yahoo leagues, Hafner posted a .931 OPS before his shoulder acted up again. I know he’s a humongous injury risk, but he’s also a guy who has mashed at a high level before.

He’ll hit in a hitter friendly ballpark and if he fails, you can cut him loose and forget we ever talked about this. One downside, he’s a DH so your options to fit him into your lineup are limited.

Steals

Michael Bourn has 19 steals (and a .302 average) and is available in 50% of Yahoo leagues. Willy Taveras has 12 swipes and is owned to the tune of 47%. I like Bourn, a little, I don’t like Taveras, but either can get the job done.

Brett Gardner, Dexter Fowler and Emmanuel Burriss all have 11 steals and are all available in 90% or more of Yahoo leagues. Gardner will fight for playing time going forward, but Fowler and Burriss should see regular at-bats.

Nyjer Morgan also has 11 steals, he’s owned at a 30% clip. His teammate Andrew McCutchen, recently called up from AAA to fill the Nate McClouth void, stole 10 bases in 49 minor league games this year and has a track record of ripping off bags at a high rate. He’s available in 80% of Yahoo leagues.

Home Runs

Nolan Reimold has displayed a better power stroke at the big league level than super-phenom teammate Matt Wieters. He has five so far in 69 at-bats since his mid-May call up. He’s a solid all around young player that is available in 93% of Yahoo leagues.

You could look to guys like Mike Jacobs and Jason Varitek. Both have 10 bombs at this point, but a little baggage in the batting average column as well. I think Jacobs has the ability to hit 35, but doubt he will this year.

Varitek is playing way over his head in the power category so buyer definitely beware, although he is a catcher, which makes him a rare find. Jacobs is owned in 17% of Yahoo leagues, Varitek 34%.

Remember when I mentioned Josh Willingham earlier? In addition to the OPS prowess he has eight home runs in the last month. Only nine guys in baseball have more over that span. As previously discussed he’s available in 96% of Yahoo leagues.

Jason Giambi and the aforementioned Michael Cuddyer each have seven ding-dongs in the last 30 days. I think Cuddyer is the more well-rounded option going forward, if he can stay healthy. He’s available in 55% of leagues, Giambi 78%.

Now don’t you feel better? You don’t have to be ashamed to come see your pusher man when you get that fix. I’m here for you baby, all day and all night. Now let’s start the music and get outta here the right way.

Hazaa

If you have a pressing fantasy need I missed feel free to drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com or leave your question below, I’ll do my best to get back to you quickly.

Tagged: Aaron Rowand, adam kennedy, andrew mccutchen, Andruw Jones, andy laroche, brett gardner, carl pavano, casey kotchman, cheap home runs, cheap steals, Christian Guzman, cody ross, dexter fowler, emmanuel burriss, ESPN fantasy baseball, Fantasy Baseball, gerardo parra, hazaa, hidden fantasy baseball gems, jason giambi, jason varitek, josh willingham, lyle overbay, Matt Palmer, michael bourn, michael cuddyer, mike jacobs, nick johnson, nolan reimold, nyjer morgan, OPS, randy winn, scott feldman, travis hafner, willy taveras, yahoo fantasy baseball

When Will Jim Leyland Learn?

J Ellet Lambie — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 22:38:03 -0400

I realize it’s a bit odd to criticize a manager for a pitching decision in a game his team lost 2-1, but I have to do it. I just can’t contain it. In the ninth inning of Friday nights game against the Angels Jim Leyland, Tigers Manager, summoned Fernando Rodney from the bullpen in the top of the ninth inning of a 0-0 game.

This would qualify as a non-save situation. I’ve written before about Fernando and his inability to be effective in such spots, but it seems Jim Leyland missed that post, so I’ll explain it again.

Coming into tonights game Fernando had recorded 10 saves in 10 chances, a lovely percentage. His season ERA was 2.86 entering the ninth inning of said 2-1 loss, also a good number. By the final score you can guess that number has since risen, to 3.52. While that number is still respectable his ERA in non-save situations is now 5.53—there is nothing respectable about that.

Including tonight’s game Fernando Rodney now boasts the following statistics in non-save situations for the 2009 season:

0-1 record, 15 hits allowed, five walks, nine strikeouts, eight earned runs surrendered, a 1.54 WHIP and the aforementioned ERA of 5.53.

I was able to track down these updated statistics in about three minutes. I’m assuming the Detroit Tigers, being a major league baseball team and all, probably have someone on staff that keeps track of these things. I’m guessing that person shares this information with the coaches and the manager in some capacity.

I would think that an experienced manager like Jim Leyland would consult these numbers, or at least remember without numeric proof that Fernando Rodney should not be pitching in situations like this one. He’s been in the dugout watching on more than a couple of occassions this year when Fernando has done the exact same thing.

To have access to several bullpen arms that are rested and ready to pitch, only to bring in a guy who has proven he all year he is the wrong man for this job is a mistake, plain and simple. I don’t know if it is stubbornness, ignorance, a hunch or some other school of thought that causes Leyland to execute this game plan, but again and again mistakes like this one are being made in critical situations.

Justin Verlander was visibly irritated on the bench, as he should have been. After giving his manager eight scoreless innings against a team with the fifth best batting average in major league baseball he was forced to watch the Angels plate two runs in the final frame, erasing his efforts and a possible Tigers win.

Josh Anderson scored in the bottom of the ninth inning, a run that would have been the game winner had Rodney been able to do the job his manager called on him to do.

I want to make that point as well. While I shake my head in befuddlement at Leyland for bringing Fernando into the game, it doesn’t excuse him for failing so profoundly. Fernando Rodney pitched, not Jim Leyland, so the blame falls most assuredly on his shoulders foremost. I have to wonder though how and why he ended up on that mound in that situation given his history.

Games are being lost, winnable games, for the same reasons over and over again. I’ve been told that the definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results.

Perhaps Jim Leyland is insane.

I don’t know, I’m not a doctor, although I played one at a halloween party once – but there is clearly something between the thought process of Leyland and the proper decision in this case. If this mental road block can’t be removed the Tigers could well see their slim lead in the AL Central vanish like Justin Verlanders gem tonight.

As for the Tigers offense tonight, or lack of it, I’d be licking my lips if I were Angels pitcher Kelvim Escobar who will face the Tigers tomorrow night.

Ervin Santana was 0-2 with a 9.50 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP coming into Fridays game. He went 8.2 innings, allowed six hits, two walks and one run while striking out seven. This is the same Ervin Santana who has been so atrocious since returning from the DL that Angles manager Mike Scioscia publicly stated last week that Santana may lose his spot in the rotation if he didn’t figure it out soon.

I believe he owes the Tigers offense a fruit basket.

Of course if he threw it to them at this point they would likely miss that as well, or perhaps ground it hard to second base for another inning ending double play. Or, the Tigers offense might get the fruit basket into scoring position with no outs only to strand it there.

There is one upside though, Rodney threw 32 pitches tonight, so if the game is tied in the 9th inning tomorrow the fact that he needs rest and not that he is awful in that situation should keep him on the bench.

I hope.

Until next time kiddies….

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Fantasy Baseball: Thursday Look See, June 4, '09

J Ellet Lambie — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:49:53 -0400

It’s time again for the hump day look see, or in this case the Thursday version as I just didn’t get to it yesterday, a random collection of stats and thoughts to help get you through your fantasy week.

The look see will appear every Wednesday evening for the remainder of the season. You can make sure you catch each installment by grabbing a free email subscription through feedburner or picking up the RSS feeds on the main page.

Let’s see, anything going on in the baseball world lately...looks a little slow on the news side, wait, hold on, ok never mind.

Yesterday was a whirlwind for transactions around the game. The Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates led the charge with trades, call-ups and cuts.

Nate McLouth was traded from the Pirates to the Braves for three minor leaguers, including center fielder Gorkys Hernandez who was acquired from Detroit two years ago in the Edgar Renteria trade.

The Braves needed a center fielder after optioning Jordan Schafer back to AAA, where he belongs based on his numbers at the big league level this year. I expect McLouth to prosper in Atlanta, you should too.

The Pirates promoted uber outfield prospect Andrew McCutchen, who was hitting .303 with four home runs, 20 RBI, 41 runs scored and 10 steals in 49 games with AAA Indianapolis.

Two stats I particularly like from his ‘09 so far—eight triples and 17 walks against 24 K’s. He’ll play everyday with McLouth gone, in a deep league with little quality in the free agent pool he’s definitely worth a look.

The Braves weren’t done in trading for their new center fielder, they also said good bye to Tom Glavine, releasing him in a surprise move, indicating the organization is finally ready to move forward. In his place the Braves summoned an elite prospect of their own—pitcher Tommy Hanson.

At 6′6″ his frame equals his expectations. The 22-year-old Hanson was 3-3 in 11 starts with AAA Gwinnett, featuring a 1.50 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP with 90 K’s (against 17 walks) in 66.1 innings. He’s expected to join the team today, you might want him to join yours as well.

In news not out of the ATL or the Burgh Chien-Ming Wang will return to the Yankees rotation after a handful of successful short relief appearances. If he can regain the form that helped him win 19 games twice, he could be a mid-season lift for your team as well. He’s currently available in 45 percent of ESPN leagues.

Yet another shortstop putting up fine fantasy numbers this year landed on the DL yesterday—Asdrubal Cabrera of the Cleveland Indians (and seven of my nine teams).

He’s expected to miss two weeks or more with a shoulder impingement, ouch. Josh Barfield was called up from AAA and will see some time in the interim. I wouldn’t get too excited about him if I were you. Just hold tight and wait for Cabrera to return, his numbers have been too good this year to abandon this early.

With Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, and Scott Hairston hitting the DL this week as well owners are scrambling for CF options. In the Yahoo game, there are seven different Center Fielders ranked in the top 100 players overall for the last week that are owned in 13 percent or less of Yahoo leagues.

They are Reed Johnson, Endy Chavez, Clete Thomas, Scott Podsednik, Aaron Rowand, Ben Francisco and Brett Gardner. I like Francisco, who will fill center field with Sizemore out, and Aaron Rowand from that list. Check our own league, you might be surprised with who is available.

If all else fails, you can always look to the aforementioned Andrew McCutchen.

If left field is your outfield trouble spot of choice you can find names like Matt Joyce and Josh Willingham among many, many others widely available that can hopefully give you a short-term punch. Willingham is ranked 24th over the last week, Joyce 39th—in Yahoo standard leagues.

And finally once again, as I provide every week in this segment, below are the top 10 hitters and pitchers from the last week according to rank in the Yahoo game.

The Hitters

No. 1 Luke Scott, BAL – .375, 6 HR, 14 RBI’s, 6 Runs, 0 SB

No. 2 Brandon Phillips, CIN – .400, 3 HR, 6 RBI’s, 6 Runs, 2 SB

No. 3 Ryan Howard, PHI – .292, 4 HR, 11 RBI’s, 6 Runs, 0 SB

No. 4 Carl Crawford, TB – .429, 2 HR, 3 RBI’s, 6 Runs, 3 SB

No. 5 Nelson Cruz, TEX – .333, 3 HR, 8 RBI’s, 7 Runs, 0 SB

No. 6 Curtis Granderson, DET – .458, 2 HR, 6 RBI’s, 3 Runs, 2 SB

No. 7 Adrian Gonzalez, SD – .333, 4 HR, 9 RBI’s, 4 Runs, 0 SB

No. 8 Matt Kemp, LAD – .417, 2 HR, 2 RBI’s, 4 Runs, 3 SB

No. 9 Adrian Beltre, SEA – .464, 1 HR, 6 RBI’s, 5 Runs, 1 SB

No. 10 Chase Utley, PHI – .364, 1 HR, 6 RBI’s, 5 Runs, 2 SB

The Pitchers

No. 1 Josh Beckett, BOS – 2 Wins, 17 K’s, 0.61 ERA, 0.75 WHIP

No. 2 Brad Lidge, PHI – 0 Wins, 4 Saves, 4 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.25 WHIP

No. 3 Dan Haren, ARI – 1 Win, 15 K’s, 1.80 ERA, 0.67 WHIP

No. 4 Jeff Niemann, TB – 1 Win, 13 K’s, 0.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP

No. 5 Trevor Hoffman, MIL – 0 Wins, 3 Saves, 5 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP

No. 6 J.A. Happ, PHI – 2 Wins, 9 K’s, 2.19 ERA, 0.97 WHIP

No. 7 Edwin Jackson, DET – 1 Win, 7 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP

No. 8 Ted Lilly, CHI – 1 Win, 12 K’s, 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

No. 9 Seth McClung, MIL – 2 Wins, 5 K’s, 1.23 ERA, 0.68 WHIP

No. 10 Matt Thornton, CWS – 2 Wins, 5 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP

Until next time kiddies...

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or feel free to drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com – your feedback is appreciated, especially the dirty and off-color remarks.

Tagged: Aaron Rowand, Adrian Beltre, Adrian Gonzalez, andrew mccutchen, asdrubal cabrera, ben francisco, brad lidge, Brandon Phillips, brett gardner, carl crawford, Chase Utley, chien-ming wang, clete thomas, curtis granderson, dan haren, edwin jackson, endy chavez, ESPN fantasy baseball, Fantasy Baseball, gorkys hernandez, grady sizemore, hazaa, hump day look see, j.a. happ, jeff niemann, jordan schafer, josh beckett, josh hamilton, josh willingham, luke scott, matt joyce, matt kemp, matt thornton, nate mcclouth, nelson cruz, reed johnson, Ryan Howard, Scott Hairston, scott podsednik, seth mcclung, ted lilly, tom glavine, top 10 hitters of the last week, top 10 pitchers of the last week, trevor hoffman, yahoo fantasy baseball

Randy Johnson and Haley's Comet

J Ellet Lambie — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 15:23:40 -0400

J Ellet Lambie is a freelance writer who covers baseball on a regular basis through his blog, as well as several other sites including this humble forum. You can see more of this work at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com

Tonight, Randy Johnson will don his San Francisco Giants uniform, warm-up in the bullpen, take the mound and attempt to do something only 23 men before him have done—win game number 300 of his career. I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head how many pitchers have pitched in the Major Leagues. If I had that kind of knowledge under my hat I’d be off somewhere being a wunderkind. I’m not. So I don’t know.

I do know, however, that when I open the Baseball Encyclopedia and hold the pitcher's section between my fingers and measure it, that it is some two-and-a-half inches thick.

Winning 300 games in the Major Leagues is special, from a mythical perspective and a numeric one.

Jim Palmer didn’t do it. Neither did Bob Feller. Bob Gibson has 251 career wins. Carl Hubbell only has two more with 253. Juan Marichal, Whitey Ford, Luis Tiant—not on the list, either. Hooks Dauss won ten or more games 14 years in a row and 17 or more six times. He has 222, barely more than two-thirds of the target.

Jack Morris, Dwight Gooden, Orel Hershiser and Ron Guidry dominated the game for a decade—none are in the selective little club.

Vida Blue, Eddie Cicotte and Prince Hal Newhouser all have 209 wins or less. The same can be said for Don Drysdale, Rube Marquard and Big Ed Walsh, all three in the Hall of Fame.

Sandy Koufax, who some would argue was the greatest pitcher of the modern era, won 165 times, a little over half of this hellacious total we speak of today.

I think you get the point.

If you like Randy Johnson, that’s wonderful. If you consider yourself a fan, good for you, enjoy this. If you don’t care for him—even if you don’t care in general—at least take a moment to consider the task at hand. The big, ugly, mean S.O.B. is on the verge of joining one of the most exclusive and respected groups in the history of modern American sport.

No, I’m not overstating it. Where thousands have dared, 23 have succeeded, and that number is about to climb. The last time it will do so for a very, very long time.

In order to win 300 games in the major leagues there are various mathematical formulas that can lead to this historic juncture. A pitcher would have to win, say 20 games, 15 times. It would take 20 seasons of 15 wins or more, on average. This is a career full of doing the single most important thing in the game of baseball, winning, over and over and over and over again, and then some.

If a pitcher averaged 13 wins per season, a noble number indeed, it would take him 23 years of filling the vault to pack it with 300 wins. The number to me is impressive, not only for its implication of dominance, but for its’ steadfast and absolute requirement of endurance. You have to pitch for a long, long time to even get close.

So tonight when Randy Johnson and his mini-mullet take the hill in our nation's capitol, I’ll be watching. You should be watching. If you know someone who is a baseball fan you should call them and make sure they watch, too.

My apologies to you if your team is one of the many spurned and/or destroyed by the Unit over the years, but it’s no excuse. Things like this don’t happen every day. Major League Baseball recognizes statistics and records dating back more than 125 years, and in that time 23 gentlemen have done what might be done once again this evening.

Based on the state of the current game, of the ages and win totals of those with a chance going forward, on the shear mathematical improbability of the thing—it is fair to say this may be the Haley’s Comet of pitching we’re about to see flash before our eyes.

I know he is not the most popular name among teammates, opponents, the media and the fans, but he is arguably among the three or four best left-handed pitchers in the history of this great game, and that is worth something. It is worth at minimum, your attention

As of Wednesday afternoon it appears ESPN will not carry the game in its entirety, which would be disappointing from a national perspective, although I would expect the network to join in at some point if history is imminent.

Have a question or a comment ? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

The Detroit Tigers June Splits

J Ellet Lambie — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:31:57 -0400

Every season is a different season, however there are trends in baseball.

So today we’ll take a look at the career split stats for the current group of Detroit Tigers for the month of June and see at least on some level, what we might expect.

Let’s start with the hitters. As you would expect Magglio Ordonez and Placido Polanco lead the pack in most categories, as they have the most at-bats in the month of June historically.

There are some surprises though, such as Marcus Thames having the highest slugging percentage of any current Tiger for the month of June.

I’ve excluded Wilkin Ramirez and Matt Treanor as Ramirez has zero career June AB’s and Treanor will definitely not be playing this month. I included Guillen and Thames as both could return this month.

Leaders are in bold text.

Player	At-Bats	Hits	HR	RBI	Runs	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Placido Polanco	893	286	15	101	153	17	0.320	0.357	0.422	0.779
Magglio Ordonez	886	303	42	186	151	20	0.342	0.416	0.560	0.976
Carlos Guillen	597	166	21	111	98	11	0.278	0.349	0.461	0.810
Miguel Cabrera	546	165	26	93	84	2	0.302	0.368	0.520	0.888
Brandon Inge	485	128	20	70	70	4	0.264	0.340	0.466	0.806
Adam Everett	357	96	4	34	43	7	0.269	0.306	0.359	0.665
Curtis Granderson	316	102	9	40	68	9	0.323	0.379	0.532	0.910
Marcus Thames	248	64	22	47	42	1	0.258	0.299	0.581	0.880
Ramon Santiago	202	42	4	9	28	5	0.208	0.289	0.317	0.606
Gerald Laird	158	49	4	21	27	3	0.310	0.331	0.494	0.825
Ryan Raburn	33	8	2	5	6	1	0.242	0.306	0.485	0.790
Jeff Larish	32	7	1	6	3	0	0.219	0.306	0.344	0.650
Clete Thomas	23	10	0	2	3	0	0.435	0.536	0.609	1.144
Josh Anderson	19	6	0	2	3	1	0.316	0.381	0.421	0.802
Dane Sardinha	11	1	0	2	0	0	0.091	0.091	0.273	0.364
TOTALS	4806	1433	170	729	779	81	0.298

Several Tigers have seen their highest single month batting average numbers in June—including Adam Everett (.269), Maggs (.342), Curtis Granderson (.323) and Gerald Laird (.310)—the only month Laird has ever hit .300 or better.

Placido Polanco hits in June better than any month save August and has more RBI’s and runs scored in June than any other month of the season.

Marcus Thames has hit more home runs in June (22) than any other month. The news isn’t all good though, as Carlos Guillen’s June batting average (.278) and OBP (.349) are the lowest and second lowest of any month of his career historically.

It’s hard to discern any reliable data from Ryan Raburn, Jeff Larish, Clete Thomas, Josh Anderson and Dane Sardinha from this exercise as none of them have more than 33 career at-bats in June. Thomas is 10 for 23 in June and Anderson is 6 for 19, good starts I suppose.

Based on his play so far this season I would expect Ramon Santiago to considerably outpace his .208 career June average. Miguel Cabrera is a .302 hitter in June with an .888 OPS—I expect he’ll be even better this time around. Placido Polanco will need another strong June effort to get his 2009 average back in the neighborhood we are accustomed to.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers.

I have excluded Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry for the obvious reason, no career June MLB experience. I included Jeremy Bonderman as I expect he’ll be back, in some capacity, soon.

Leaders and worst offenders (depending on category) are in bold.

Player	IP	Wins	Losses	Saves	Blown Saves	Hits	Walks	K’s	Earned Runs	ERA	WHIP
Edwin Jackson	66.1	3	4	0	0	75	33	39	43	5.83	1.63
Joel Zumaya	20.2	1	1	2	1	16	13	21	4	1.74	1.40
Fernando Rodney	35.1	2	4	1	4	40	18	35	28	7.13	1.64
Justin Verlander	103.2	9	3	0	0	80	44	100	37	3.21	1.20
Nate Robertson	150.1	10	5	0	0	145	48	114	62	3.71	1.28
Zach Miner	47.2	6	1	0	1	44	17	24	11	2.08	1.28
Armando Galarraga	32.1	3	0	0	0	32	8	22	12	3.34	1.24
Bobby Seay	23	1	1	0	0	24	8	19	12	4.70	1.39
Dontrelle Willis	194.1	14	9	0	0	206	57	133	71	3.29	1.35
Brandon Lyon	69.1	5	6	8	5	78	20	53	39	5.06	1.41
Jeremy Bonderman	170.2	11	10	0	0	181	49	152	87	4.59	1.35
TOTALS	913.2	65	44	11	11	921	315	712	406	4.00	1.35

Dontrelle paces the team in wins, hits allowed and walks allowed, largely on the strength of the 194.1 innings he’s thrown—the most of any Tiger in the month of June.

Joel Zumaya owns the best June ERA (1.74), although over a much smaller sample of 20.2 innings pitched.

Brandon Lyon has mediocre June numbers to put it gently, something that will need to change if the Tig’s hope to stay in contention. Note that the struggling Armando Galarraga boasts a 3.34 June ERA, something that will need to fall in line if he hopes to stay in the rotation going forward.

Who would have guessed that Nate Robertson had a 10-5 June record with a 3.71 ERA and a K:BB ratio of better than 2:1?

Not me, but alas it’s true, historically speaking. In the case of Edwin Jackson we can only hop his dazzling ‘09 start leaves his previous June disasters behind.

So there you have it, the associated split statistics for the Detroit Tigers in the month of June.

Some of these numbers are encouraging, some worrisome, others likely irrelevant considering the development players have seen and the current roles on the ball club.

Big Thanks to Ian from Bless You Boys for linking to this story as it appeared on my blog. If you don't know his work, you should, he covers the Tigers voraciously, make sure to check out his blog.

Until next time kiddies...Hazaa!

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Milt Wilcox and I Get a Hair Cut

J Ellet Lambie — Fri, 29 May 2009 10:10:16 -0400

Thursday afternoon I walked into the Berkley Chop Shop, a barbershop in my hometown opened by an old high school friend a few years back. I was overdue for a clean up and had an hour to kill so it seemed the appropriate thing to do.

All five barbers were busy so I took a seat in the corner and waited my turn. Sitting across from me was a very familiar looking man, mid 50’s, about six foot two...I knew that I knew him from somewhere but just couldn’t place the face. Then one of the barbers wandered over and said to him “Milt, I’ll be with you in a bit.”

Turns out it was former Detroit Tiger Milt Wilcox.

When I got in my car to head out for a haircut, I wasn’t planning on writing about the experience, but when you keep a Detroit Tigers blog and you happen to run into Milt Wilcox at the barber shop, you kinda have to write about it—I think it’s a rule.

I told him I didn’t recognize him at first without the signature mustache, which he has shaved off. We struck up a conversation and passed the time for a good 15 minutes until both he and I were called to our respective barbers.

I met Milt on a few occasions in my youth, at baseball card shows and autograph signings—two passions from my childhood. Somewhere in a box I have a polaroid picture of he and the nine year old me from such an autograph show; I can still see it, now if only I could find it.

Alas, while I’m now a grown man and write about the game of baseball and the Detroit Tigers I still had that bit of nervous energy the nine year old version of me likely had when we first met.

After a few minutes of conversation though it was as if he was an old friend, easy to talk to, funny and genuine—the way I imagine and hope all of my childhood favorites are these days.

Milt Wilcox pitched for the Tigers from 1977 through early in 1985. His road to Detroit ran through Evansville, IN. The Triplets were a Tigers farm club at the time that originally acquired him on loan to get through a stretch of double headers.

As the story goes, at least according to baseball-reference, Sparky Anderson urged the Tigers to take a chance on Milt and the team traded away some old uniforms to get him.

Talk about a humbling trade—especially for a guy who picked up the win in the deciding game of the 1970 ALCS while with the Cincinnati Reds. He struck out five in three innings of relief, including Hall Of Famers Roberto Clemente and Willie Stargell. Not bad for a 20-year-old kid, not bad at all.

Most Tigers fans will remember Milt and his time in the Old English D for two things—his near perfect game in 1983 and his victories in the 1984 ALCS and World Series.

On Apr. 15 of 1983 Wilcox faced LaMar Hoyt (who went on to win the 1983 AL Cy Young) and the Chicago White Sox. He retired the first 26 batters he faced, only to lose out on a perfect game when pinch-hitter Jerry Hairston singled up the middle with two outs in the ninth inning.

He retired the next batter for a one hit shutout. Only three times in MLB history has a perfect game been broken up with two outs in the ninth inning.

He won the clinching game in a League Championship Series for the second time in his career by beating the Kansas City Royals 1-0 with eight shutout innings on Oct. 6, 1984.

He went on to beat the San Diego Padres in game three of the World Series with six innings of one run ball in the first World Series Game at Tiger Stadium since 1968.

In total, Milt allowed one run over 14 innings in the 1984 postseason, when it mattered most. While Morris and Petry may get the lions share of the credit for winning it all that year, the Tigers couldn’t have done it without Milt Wilcox.

I remember Milt as a big, friendly guy who fought to stay in baseball as long as he could, battling injuries, bouncing from team to team—but mostly I remember that magical 1984 season when Milt won 17 games and along with Jack Morris and Dan Petry anchored the staff of a championship team.

He looks good. It’s hard to learn everything about a guy you spend 15 minutes with in a barber chop, but he seemed happy, healthy, busy and generally content with the world around him. We talked about tattoos, trucks, of course baseball, and about his dogs. Milt loves his dogs.

For years now, he and his dogs, including Sparky (named for Sparky Anderson) have been competing in various dog jumping events across the country. He’s a busy guy. He told me about events in St. Louis, Richmond (VA), Traverse City, Columbus (GA), and Asheville, NC.

I told him it sounds like he travels more now than in his former profession. He told me it feels that way some times. He is the Founder and President of Ultimate Air Dogs, one of the premier dock jumping organizations in the country.

You can check out the web site through the link above, it’s fascinating stuff and sounds like a fun way to spend a day at the lake.

He’s still around the game of baseball. He’s been an instructor at Tigers fantasy camps, works with local high school players from time to time and has worked with some pro pitchers, under the radar, to help get them to the next level.

He told me that he reached out to the agent for Dontrelle Willis in the offseason, volunteering to work with him on his delivery and mechanics. Sadly Milt was called to his chair before we were able to get into the specifics of that adventure.

When his name first came up Milt talked about how Dontrelle needed to shorten up his delivery from last year, become more compact. He told me how difficult it is for a pitcher with so many moving parts to remain consistent, a theory I’ve subscribed to for years.

I asked him if he still talked to any of the guys from his time with the Tigers. He sees Dave Rozema and Dan Petry around town here and there, is still close with Lance Parrish who now lives in the Nashville, TN area and runs into Johnny Grubb when he travels to Virginia.

I told Milt that Johnny Grubb had one of the prettiest swings I ever saw, I don’t understand how he wasn’t a .320 hitter.

We talked about strategy, this years club, Jim Leyland and a lot more. It was one of the better conversations I’ve run into in a while. I find it funny that it happened in a barber shop of all places, where you would expect a ballplayer now in his 50s to sit and tell stories.

I hope I run into him again someday, he’s good conversation.

Be Well Milt.

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Tigers in the Sports Pages: May 28

J Ellet Lambie — Thu, 28 May 2009 10:19:42 -0400

“I always turn to the sports pages first, which records man’s accomplishments. The front page has nothing but man’s failures.”

-Earl Warren

So, with that, let’s turn to the sports pages. I’m focusing on the Tigers this morning, and so are these bloggers.

Big JP at Always A Tiger discusses his anger at the early all-star vote totals and whether the vote should be taken away from the fans.

Jennifer Cosey at Old English D shares her thoughts on youngster Rick Porcello and his winning streak; it's full of Michigan flavor and fun to read.

ROGO from DesigNate Robertson compares Gary Sheffield and Clete Thomas. This made me giggle a bit, I admit it.

Kurt from Mack Avenue Tigers updates the rehab situation with Marcus Thames and Jeremy Bonderman. His was informative, as always.

If you enter May 28 at Today In Baseball History, you’ll see that Willie Mays hit his first MLB home run on this day in 1951, and the Tigers and White Sox combined for a record 12 home runs in a game on this day in 1995.

Scott Warheit at The Cutoff Man discusses the excellent job Gerald Laird has done handling the Tigers' pitchers, a truly underrated facet of his game.

Lee at Tiger Tales posted a terrific breakdown of the Tigers' team defense this year. It's definitely worth a read.

Bilfer at the Detroit Tigers Weblog gives the rundown on yesterday’s Minor League results; it’s a staple in my daily reading.

Have a question or comment? Did you find an interesting baseball story you’d like to see in the next Sports Pages? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Tagged: all-star voting, Detroit Tigers, erie sea wolves, gary sheffield vs. clete thomas, gerald laird, hazaa, jeremy bonderman rehab, lakeland flying tigers, marcus thames rehab, rick porcello, the sports pages 5/28/09, today in baseball history, toledo mudhens

Tigers Pitchers on Pace To Break 1968 Team's Strikeout Record

J Ellet Lambie — Wed, 27 May 2009 19:02:15 -0400

Tigers fans who were around 41 years ago remember the key component of the 1968 teams success—pitching. Tigers fans not yet born have heard the stories from their fathers, from Ernie Harwell, from baseball writers and bartenders, fans and fanatics.

The ‘68 Tigers won 103 games on the strength of the best ERA in the American League, 2.71. Denny McClain won 31 games and struck out 280. Mickey Lolich won 17 and fanned 197. Earl Wilson and Joe Sparma combined for 23 wins and 278 strike outs, helping the Tigers set a team record for most K’s in a season. The record has stood for more than 40 years, and is in danger of falling.

Through 45 games, the 2009 Tigers pitching staff has struck out 326 batters in 398.1 innings pitched. That’s a rate of 7.24 per game, which makes for a projected season total of 1,173 punch outs, which would eclipse the record of 1,115 set by that great ‘68 squad.

The bullpen has contributed 115 K’s while the starting rotation has notched 211 whiffs. I’ve included Zach Minor and his numbers in the bullpen count.

While the 2009 team is far off the 2.71 ERA pace of the 1968 bunch, the current group also leads the American League in the category with a team ERA of 3.86. This year's Motor City Kitties also pace the AL in shutouts (six), fewest hits allowed (373), and fewest earned runs allowed (171). The Tigers rank second in the league in WHIP (1.33) and opponent's batting average (.318).

Not bad for a team that only weeks ago was barely a .500 club with Justin Verlander struggling and Dontrelle Willis in the Minor Leagues.

Verlander has led the resurrection, going 5-0 with an ERA of 0.80, a WHIP of 0.85 and 60 strike outs in 42.1 innings pitched in the last month. Edwin Jackson is 4-3 overall (he should be 6-2) with a 2.58 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 50 K’s in 66.1 innings of work. Rookie Rick Porcello collected his sixth win Wednesday and boasts an ERA/WHIP split of 3.48/1.20 with 32 K’s in 51.1.

With Dontrelle Willis rising like a phoenix and the potential return of Jeremy Bonderman, it’s getting easier each day to believe this rotation could be pitching in the playoffs this season. If Armando Galarraga can find the form that made him the de facto ace of the staff in 2008 and the first few weeks of 2009, things could get pretty scary for opposing hitters come September and beyond.

For the first time in several years, the trade deadline will come and go without much talk of the Tigers' need to acquire a starting pitcher. The bullpen may be ripe for a targeted edition, but the rotation seems well under control, at least for now.

There is a pile of baseball left to play. A lot can happen in the next four months, in the next four weeks, in the next four games—but as of today the Detroit Tigers are setting the standard for pitching among American League squads, and chasing the ghost of the 1968 Tigers and their strikeout record in the process.

So keep your eyes on the mound, and the record book, going forward; you just might see something spectacular appear in both places.

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Hump Day Look See: 5/27/09

J Ellet Lambie — Wed, 27 May 2009 14:37:19 -0400

It’s time again for the hump day look see, a random collection of stats and thoughts to help get you through your fantasy week. the look see will appear every Wednesday evening for the remainder of the season. You can make sure you catch each installment by grabbing a free email subscriptionthrough feedburner or picking up the RSS feeds on the main page.

Those of you who have been diligently awaiting the arrival of Matt “I am the savior of the Orioles” Wieters will finally be rewarded come Friday. Oscar Meyer Wieters will make his ‘09 debut this weekend. While I am not sold on his impending stardom I admit he is among the most exciting prospects to emerge this year, or at least the most hyped.

Nolan Reimold made his debut recently with considerably less fanfare, yet has posted some quality numbers in his early season audition. Through 12 games so far Reimold is 12-46 (.261) with three home runs and six RBI’s.

Four of his 12 hits have been for extra bases, giving him an OPS of .784. He’s a player to watch, but he may find himself back in AAA or on the wrong end of a platoon with the return of Luke Scott and the coming return of Adam Jones. Keep an eye on him, if he sticks he could be a diamond in the rough.

The Chicago Cubs now have two slugging first base prospects on their roster, Micah Hoffpauier and newly recalled Jake Fox. The ‘Hoff has four bombs and 16 RBI’s in 89 at-bats to go with his .281 average and .820 OPS.

University of Michigan product Jake Fox hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2007, but dismantled AAA pitching this year to earn the promotion. In the most impressive minor league stat line I’ve seen this year Fox torched the competition to the tune of a .423 batting average, a 1.389 OPS with 17 home runs and 50 RBI’s in 40 games. Beastly seems to be the appropriate description.

Playing time seems to be the question of the day for both youngsters. With Derrek Lee at first base Hoffpauier has seen time in the outfield, but not enough. Alfonso Soriano reportedly told manager Lou Piniella earlier this week that he would gladly return to second base to give the team more depth in the infield and allow Micah more time in the outfield. No word yet from the Cubs on long term plans for either prospect, but the way the Cubs have been (not) hitting, it would make sense to give the hot hands a few swings.

The New York Mets have called up their top prospect, outfielder Fernando Martinez. With Ryan Church on the DL and Carlos Beltran out temporarily Martinez should some playing time, how much is up to the little man in Jerry Manuel’s head.

Fernando hit .291 with an .889 OPS in 42 AAA games before getting the call. Of his 48 hits 25 were for extra bases.

He drove in 28 runs and scored 22 as well. He’s all of 20-years-old, so be patient, and be careful. If you’re thinking of him as a very short term fix to your outfield woes recognize you’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle, which is fun, but dangerous.

With the news that shortstops Jose Reyes and Jason Bartlett will both hit the DL fantasy owners are scouring the free agent pool for some short term shortstop help. Clint Barmes could provide a little help, he’s hit safely in nine of his last 12 games with two home runs, seven RBI’s and nine runs scored in his last 15 games – he’s available in more than 95% of ESPN leagues.

Ben Zobrist is hitting .317 in his last 15 games with three bombs, two steals, 11 RBI’s and nine runs scored. He’ll see more playing time with Bartlett out and Gabe Kapler struggling in the outfield – he’s available in more than 60% of ESPN leagues.

You could also look to the dynamic duo of Adam Everett and Ramon Santiago in Detroit. While you’ll need to monitor closely who will start each night the pair have combined to hit .393 (24-61) with 13 runs scored, 11 RBI’s two bombs and two steals in the last 15 games. Santiago and Everett are owned in 1.7% and 1% respectively of ESPN leagues.

Nyjer Morgan has cooled off considerably. He’s hitting .256 in May, lowering his season average to .282. He’s 11 for his last 47 (.234) with one stolen base.

Pitchers make adjustments. Hitters make adjustments. I still believe he has strong long term potential, but you’ll have to tolerate a few bumps in the road like this in order to reap the benefits later.

That seems like enough of my incessant babbling, I know you’re only here for the top 10 hitters and pitchers of the last week in Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

I get it. You use me, then toss me aside like your cousin/prom date after what’s her face dumped you at the last minute.

I’m ok with it. So as always below are the 10 best hitters and pitchers from the last week, according to the rankings of a standard Yahoo 5 x 5 roto league. Enjoy.

Top 10 hitters of the last week:

#1 – Nelson Cruz, OF, TEX – .462, five home runs, 10 RBI’s, six runs, five steals

#2 – Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, ARI – .344, four home runs, 10 RBI’s, six runs, six steals

#3 – Joe Mauer, C, MIN – .500, four homers, 13 RBI’s, 12 runs

#4 – Michael Cuddyer, OF, MIN – .414, four home runs, 11 RBI’s, nine runs

#5 – Alexei Ramirez, 2B/SS/OF, CHW – .400, two homers, six RBI’s, eight runs, three steals

#6 – Justin Upton, OF, ARI – .412, two homers, seven RBI’s, nine runs, one steal

#7 – Miguel Tejada, SS, HOU – .500, three home runs, five RBI’s, 6 runs, 1 steal

#8 – Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY – .433, two bombs, eight RBI’s, seven runs, 1 steal

#9 – Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN – .409, two dingers, 11 RBI’s, eight runs

#10 – Torii Hunter, OF, ANA – .360, two bombs, nine RBI’s, five runs, two steals

Top 10 pitchers of last week:

#1 – Justin Verlander, DET – two wins, 16 K’s, 0.69 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 13 IP

#2 – Adam Wainwright, STL – two wins, 16 K’s, 1.15 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 15 and 2/3 IP

#3 – Tim Lincecum, SFG – one win, 18 K’s, 0.60 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15 IP

#4 – Chris Carpenter, STL – one win, 14 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, 13 IP

#5 – Phil Hughes, NYY – two wins, 15 K’s, 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 13 IP

#6 – Carl Pavano, CLE – two wins, 14 K’s, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13 IP

#7 – George Sherrill, BAL – three saves, seven K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.25 WHIP, 4 IP

#8 – Nick Blackburn, MIN – two wins, nine K’s, 0.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 14 IP

#9 – Zack Greinke, KC – one win, 16 K’s, 1.80 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 15 IP

#10 – Francisco Cordero, CIN – three saves, four K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 5 IP

Until next time kiddies….

Hazaa

If you have comments, questions, swarmy outbursts or ideas for a future Hump Day Look See segment your comments are welcome below. If you prefer the more traditional electronic mail route you can drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Five For Fighting: Mark Schruender of Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove

J Ellet Lambie — Tue, 26 May 2009 18:25:02 -0400

Welcome to another installment of Five For Fighting, where I’ll team up with other fantasy baseball bloggers and columnists to ask and answer questions on players, strategy, trends and other facets of the game we love. Each installment will see yours truly trade five questions with a talented writer from elsewhere on the web.

My questions and their answers will appear here, in this humble forum, while their questions and my answers will appear on their site, in this case here. Hopefully this segment will provide you with valuable insight from a variety of sources and introduce you to new writers whose work I think you’ll enjoy.

Joining me this time around is Mark Schruender from Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove. He started blogging about fantasy baseball the day after the Phillies won the World Series last year to help him cope with missing baseball during the winter.

He counted down the top 158 players by profiling one player per day to fill the off-season. He now asks bloggers of various MLB teams for their take from a fantasy perspective and writes his own articles about whatever happens to be on his mind. Big thanks to Mark for being a part of this experiment. Now let’s get to it…

1. Give me one player owned in 10 percent or less of Yahoo or ESPN leagues that should be on my roster

How about a guy who is owned in less than 10 percent of ESPN and Yahoo leagues! Joe Crede is swinging a hot bat so I would snatch him up. He had three home runs in four different games, so that shows me that he’s not been ranked in the top 100 in the last week and month based on one at-bat like some other players.

Most of the time when you are scanning free agents, the Jason Bartlett types who do the equivalent to your team as a heart surgeon who makes you feel like a teenager again aren’t going to be there anymore, so I’m just looking to squeeze every drop of stats out of the scrap heap. I don’t expect Crede to stay hot or healthy, so when it ends get ready to find the next flavor of the week.

Stay tuned though. I think Clay Buchholz will stick when he gets the call up and will be nasty. I just wouldn’t waste a roster spot on him yet.

2. Which oft-injured, under-performing slugger are you more concerned about and why—Carlos Quentin or Josh Hamilton?

Quentin. I really thought he was going to take another step forward or at least replicate his 2008 season, but he hasn’t performed. Whether or not it has been the foot injury or the wrist which he claims is irrelevant.

Hamilton meanwhile has hits in three straight games and hit a dinger in Houston over the weekend. I think Hamilton can be a great buy-low guy right now.

3. If you were forced to take the entire starting rotation of any MLB team for your fantasy team, which would it be and why?

It wouldn’t be five for fighting if we didn’t get to talk about the best five-man rotation. The Dodgers, Cardinals, and Royals have the top three ERAs in baseball, but I don’t want any of those teams. I feel like the back of their rotations has resembled a reality show more than a baseball team. The team I want is the San Francisco Giants even though they struggle to win games.

Lincecum had a tough start to the season, but after his first two starts, nobody in baseball has had more strikeouts. He also has a quality start in all but one of his last seven starts.

He’s not the only guy that can get strikeouts on staff as Randy Johnson and Jonathan Sanchez strikeout about one batter per inning. Matt Cain—despite not winning a lot—is a legit number two on most MLB teams and generally gets hot in the middle of the season. Barry Zito isn’t worth the money he’s paid, but he has been pitching better lately.

The Giants have two of the better pitching prospects in Double-A in Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner. Chances are that Bumgarner, who is only 19, won’t be brought up, but it’s nice to know if RJ shows his age that there could be a potential ace in waiting.

4. Of the following closers who will lose their job and when do you think it will happen, roughly—Kerry Wood, David Aardsma, Ryan Franklin, Fernando Rodney, Brad Lidge.

Wood will hit the DL on June 10. He will come back on July 8 and hit the DL again (for good) on August 14. I still see Mark Prior’s shadow following him around…

Aardsma throws hard, but there is a reason he has pitched for five different teams in five seasons. Looking at his career splits he has really struggled in July and August, so hopefully for Mariners fans Brandon Morrow can right the ship by that point. Otherwise say hello to Shawn Kelley.

I think Franklin will be saving games into October.

After going through one rough patch in April, Rodney has been solid. The job is his until he gets hurt. Joel Zumaya will already be injured when Rodney gets hurt so don’t bother adding him.

Charlie Manuel is sticking with Lidge, but I’m thinking he retracts that statement next week. Something is obviously wrong when he’s averaging more than a run allowed every inning. At the rate things are going I can see them giving Lidge a “mental break” where the Phils try to bring him into situations that Nick Swisher would be pitching.

If Lidge continues to struggle after that, similar to what the Red Sox have now with David Ortiz, they will have to move him out of the role until he proves he can get hitters out. If he doesn’t turn it around, look at Ryan Madson in a week.

5. Give me one hitter and one pitcher off to a slow start that you believe will turn it around in a big way and tell me why

Hitter: Alexei Ramirez. He actually has doubled his walk rate so far in 2009 which has been encouraging. The stolen bases are right about where I would have expected them and given that his on base percentage hasn’t been great he should steal more than the 28 he is on pace for. Lately he’s been putting together better at-bats and with a .237 BABIP the average is bound to come up sooner or later.

Pitcher: Daisuke Matsuzaka. He pitched well in his one start coming off the DL against the Mets, but the line doesn’t show it. If Julio Lugo turns a double play that 90 percent of shortstops turn, he would have allowed two runs instead of four.

Everyone assumed that Daisuke was rolling a hot dice last year (p-u-n-!) after walking so many last year, but the reason he walks so many is because he pitches on the corners and rarely gives hitters a pitch that they can drive. That correlates into a high WHIP, but a low ERA and with the Red Sox lineup a good wins per start rate.

So there we have it. Big thanks again to Mark. You can check out the other side of this experiment here, where Mark tests my fantasy sanity with some fantastic questions.

Again you can read the counterpart to this story here, at Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove.

Until next time kiddies….

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Hump Day Look See: 5/20/09

J Ellet Lambie — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:32:31 -0400

originally published 5/20/2009 at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com

This week is shaping up to be a good one for the top two finishers in the 2005 NL Cy Young Award.

Runner-up Dontrelle Willis had an impressive showing last night, allowing one hit, two walks and no earned runs while striking out five over 6 1/3 innings en route to his victory since 2007.

Winner Chris Carpenter cruised through 5.0 innings against the Cubs Monday surrendering 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 and also holding his opponent scoreless. He threw 67 pitches on a pitch count, 41 for strikes.

Willis is owned in 2.8 percent of ESPN leagues, while Carpenter is owned by 82.7 percent. Both players are coming off injuries and/or bouts of wild uneffectiveness–an add to the watch list might be in order.

Not long ago, I was telling a friend that if the Pittsburgh Pirates' Brandon Moss didn’t get off his ass, Andrew McCutchen might get the call from the minors and take his job.

I’m not sure if Moss heard me, but he’s sure acting like it. He’s 11 for his last 21 (.524) with five RBI and six runs scored in that span. I still think McCutchen will end up in the bigs before all is said and done, but Moss is beginning to make a statement that the phenoms playing time should come at someone else’s expense.

Juan Pierre is taking advantage of his new found playing time. In his last 15 games, Pierre is 21-51 (.412) with 13 runs scored, nine RBI and six steals. He’s owned in almost 60 percent of ESPN leagues, that number was 27 percent 10 days ago.

Glen Perkins found his way out of Minnesota via the DL after another rough outing earlier this week. The left-hander began the season with three-straight eight-inning starts in which he allowed two earned runs or less. However, he has allowed four or more earned runs in each of his last five starts, including six earned runs in 2/3 innings Monday.

I don’t know what’s gotten into Joel Pineiro, but I’ll have what he’s having. The right-hander threw a three-hit shutout yesterday to improve to 5-3 with a 3.48 ERA. His victory ended a run of three-straight defeats and was his first complete game since July of 2005. Add in the fact that he has 19 total strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings pitched and a career 4.50 ERA, and it explains why so few are drinking the Kool-Aid. He’s owned in 7.7 percent of ESPN leagues–do yourself a favor, keep it that way.

Jorge De La Rosa was quietly having a very impressive, yet winless 2009…..until Monday. Coming into today’s start against the Braves, he featured a 3.16 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 45 K’s in 43 innings pitched. Yet he was 0-3, which is tough to understand until you remember he pitches for the Rockies.

It’s safe to say De La Rosa had his second bad start of the season Monday. After an April 11 start in which he was knocked around for five earned runs in 4 2/3, he rattled off six-consecutive quality starts and had a K:BB ratio of 22 to 1 over his last two starts. Monday, however, 3 2/3, five hits, five walks and seven earned runs. The kid still has above average stuff but is still learning. There will be nights like this now and again but don’t give up on him yet. He’s owned in 12.8 percent of ESPN leagues.

The Boston Red Sox (and possibly your fantasy team) will see Kevin Youkilis and Daisuke Matsuzaka return to the roster this week.

Youk was 3-5 tonight in his first game off the DL while Matsuzaka is expected to re-join the BoSox Friday. Adjust your rosters accordingly, although keep an eye on Daisuke early. Pitchers often need a start or two against big league hitters to really get back in the groove.

Before I go, here are the top 10 hitters and pitchers in the Yahoo game from the last 7 days.

*NOTE* this is as of Thursday AM so these stats are through 5/20, and once again I don’t pick ‘em, I just print ‘em – this is according to the Yahoo rankings over the last week in a standard 5 x 5 roto league. Enjoy.

Top 10 Hitters of the last 7 days:

1 – Raul Ibanez - .429, 4 HR, 11 RBI’s, 9 Runs, 1 SB

2 – David Wright – .636, 0 HR, 10 RBI’s, 5 Runs, 5 SB

3 – Mark Teixeira – .407, 4 HR, 12 RBI’s, 6 Runs

4 – Mark Reynolds – .300, 3 HR, 5 RBI’s, 7 Runs, 5 SB (4 last night)

5 – Cody Ross – .500, 2 HR, 9 RBI’s, 7 Runs

6 – Jason Bartlett – .435, 0 HR, 8 RBI’s, 7 Runs, 3 SB

7 – Ryan Raburn – .455, 3 HR, 9 RBI’s, 5 Runs

8 – Shin-Soo Choo – .435, 2 HR, 6 RBI’s, 8 Runs

9 – B.J. Upton – .172, 2 HR, 2 RBI’s, 7 Runs, 6 SB

10 – Nate McClouth – .333, 2 HR, 6 RBI’s, 6 Runs, 2 SB

Top 10 Pitchers of the last 7 days

1 – Wandy Rodriguez – 2 Wins, 16 K’s, 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 14 IP

2 – CC Sabathia – 2 Wins, 12 K’s, 1.80 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 15 IP

3 – Justin Verlander – 1 Win, 21 K’s, 2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 12 and 1/3 IP

4 – Javier Vazquez – 1 Win, 16 K’s, 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 12 IP

5 – Heath Bell – 3 Saves, 8 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 5 and 1/3 IP

6 – Joel Pineiro – 1 Win, 5 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP, 9 IP

7 – Jake Peavy – 1 Win, 8 K’s, 1.00 ERA, 0.44 WHIP, 9 IP

8 – Jonathon Broxton – 1 Win, 3 Saves, 5 K’s, 3.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 5 IP

9 – Dave Bush – 2 Wins, 9 K’s, 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 13 IP

10 – Cole Hamels – 1 Win, 16 K’s, 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 13 IP

Until then next time kiddies,

Hazaa

Hump Day Look See: 5/13/09

J Ellet Lambie — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:28:57 -0400

Originally published 5/13/2009 at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com

If Jayson Werth is on your fantasy team you’re probably smiling a big ole smile right about now. Werth had a heck of day yesterday, going 2-4 with 3 runs scored and 4 steals, including a swipe of home to complete his thievery spree around the bases in the 7th inning against the Dodgers.

On the season Werth is hitting .295 with 6 home runs, 21 RBI’s, 27 runs scored and 7 steals. He’s made a habit so far this year of putting up big single game numbers. He’s gone 4-4 twice and has driven in 2 runs or more in a game 7 times.

On April 15th I went to the Tigers/White Sox game at Comerica Park with my dad. We watched in awe as Armando Galarraga dismantled the White Sox en route to a 9-0 Tigers victory. The win put his record at 2-0 with an 0.68 ERA.

On April 15th Justin Verlander was 0-1 with a 9.35 ERA. While chatting up the guy behind us about ‘mando’s impressive start another fan down the row boldly proclaimed Galarraga was the true ace of the staff.

I asked him “what about Justin Verlander?” He replied with “Justin who?”, to which I replied “the guy who won 35 games in 2 years”.

After last night’s disappointing performance Galarraga is now 0-3 in his last 3 starts with an 8.64 ERA with 9 K’s and 9 walks in that span. Verlander in his last 3 starts is 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA, 31 K’s and 5 walks.

I hate to say I told you so, especially to a guy I don’t even know, but if you’re out there, I told you so. To be fair, Armando carried the staff last season and early this year until Justin found his way. Galarraga is a better pitcher than he’s shown in his last 3 outings, here’s hoping he figures it out.

Brian Bannister will take the hill for the Royals tonight, in search of his 4th win. Bannister is 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP through his first 4 starts, impressive. Before you push your way to the front edge of the free agent pool to catch him, you might want to take a look at his numbers from last year.

In 2008 Bannister started the season 3-0 with an 0.86 ERA and a WHIP of 0.71. He then proceeded to go 0-4 in his next 4 starts with an ERA/WHIP split of 8.14/1.81. While I’d like to think that I have powers of prognostication, I can’t tell you if ‘09 will be a repeat of ‘08, where Bannister finished 9-16 with a 5.76 ERA.

He’s been good so far, the Royals are playing pretty good ball and perhaps his early season stint in the minors helped work out some of the kinks. I don’t know. I only number there is a history of hitters figuring him out quickly.

He’s known as a cerebral pitcher who works hard and studies film like his life depends on it, he’s the kind of guy I want to root for and do, I just get nervous when I remember how hard he crashed last spring.

Speaking of pitchers who make me nervous—welcome back Dontrelle Willis! The D-Train will take the hill in Minnesota tonight as the Tigers try to recover from last night’s loss. I could throw a pile of stats and splits at you, trying to make the argument one way or another about what to expect, but honestly neither you nor I have a clue what comes next. We all know Willis was great once upon a time.

We all know he’s been putrid the last couple of years. Like Bannister he’s a good guy and a guy I want to see succeed. I’ll be rooting like hell for him but I’ll be waiting a few starts to see if he’s fantasy worthy (except on my undrafted team where anything goes). Where have you gone Johnny Grubb wrote about Willis and his return today, a nice piece, worth a look.

Early May has turned out to be a bad time to be a strong corner infield option in fantasy baseball. Kevin Youkilis is on the DL (oblique), Aramis Ramirez is on the DL (shoulder), Conor Jackson is on the DL (flu….really?) and according to reports Carlos Delgado may be put on the DL with a bad right hip.

Perhaps his AARP supplemental health insurance will cover the hip replacement surgery. I kid because I care.

In addition other CI options such as Carlos Guillen, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gordon and Nomar Garciaparra are also resting on the disabled list. If one or two of these names appear on your fantasy roster you may want to look into some short term options to fill the holes, such as….

Casey Kotchman (1B) has been hot the last week, hitting .385 with 2 home runs and 11 RBI’s, he’s owned in 12% of Yahoo leagues.

Todd Helton (1B) is available in 57% of Yahoo leagues. In the last 7 days he’s hitting .348 with 2 bombs and his season numbers come in at .343, 4 HR, 20 RBI’s and 16 runs scored.

Adam Rosales(3B) of the Cincinnatti Reds is a .333 hitter in the last 7 days. Since being called up he’s filled Encarnacion’s spot at 3B with a lot of promise and potential. He’s a reach and you probably have more proven options available, but if you’re in the market for a 1% owned longshot, he’s your man.

Casey Blake (1B/3B) is available in 74% of Yahoo leagues. Over the last 7 days he’s a .381 hitter and has season HR/RBI/Runs totals of 6/18/18. He can fill the 1B and 3B spots as well as the CI hole, which is a nice bonus.

Nick Johnson (1B) has 10 RBI’s in the last week and is hitting .314 on the season. He’s owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues.

If you want a guy so under the radar it makes your head spin, consider Jeff Larish of the Tigers. He’s owned in 0% of Yahoo leagues (exact number of teams owning him unavailable).

He’s been the hot hand in the Tigers lineup over the last week with a .444 average and 2 home runs. He’s a very short term fix at best unless many things change, but he’s still better than leaving a guy on the DL in your lineup.

Check your own free agent pool and due the stat dance, there’s quality depth out there to fill your short-term needs.

I realized this morning that I haven’t written about Adam Jones much this year. I was at a concert last night and missed the nightly game recaps so I turned to the internet to see how he did yesterday. Good thing I decided to write about Adam Jones today.

Jones hit 2 home runs, drove in 4 and raised his season splits to .363/8/25/35/3.

Damn.

At 23 years old his coming party is in full swing. Jones has 41 hits in 31 games on the season, a .420 OBP and a 1.090 OPS, good for 4th best in the American League. He looks to have secured his spot in the Orioles lineup to say the very least.

Fellow Oriole outfielder Nick Markakis is again tearing up AL pitching, hitting .349 with 6 home runs, 30 RBI’s and 33 runs scored in 33 games. Now if only the Orioles could find a strong left fielder to complete the trifecta.

If you don’t know the name Nolan Reimold, write it down. He’s a 25 year outfielder for the Orioles AAA affiliate Norfolk who is punishing the ball so far this year.

Through 106 minor league at-bats this season Reimold is hitting .396 with a 1.239 OPS. He has 9 home runs, 27 RBI’s and 17 walks against 23 K’s to date. The Orioles have no one on the major league roster at the moment worthy of keeping this kid at AAA.

Everyone has seemingly been waiting for Matt Wieters to be called up, but don’t be surprised if Nolan beats him to the big leagues this year. If he gets the call, keep an eye on him.

In deep leagues with big rosters a call-up alone may be enough reason to grab him. In softer leagues he should at least end up on your watch list if (when) he comes up. Minor league numbers don’t always equate to major league success, but this kid seems to be the real deal.

And finally, I’m experimenting with different ways to include the top 10 hitters and pitchers from the last 7 days in this piece. I’m using the Yahoo game rankings from a standard 5 x 5 roto league. Bare with me on the appearance, still working out the bugs.

Top 10 hitters:

1) Hanley Ramirez – .583/3 HR/6RBI’s/9 Runs/3 SB

2) Ryan Braun – .478/3HR/10 RBI’s/ 9 Runs/ 1 SB

3) Jayson Werth – .444/ 2 HR/ 4 RBI’s/ 7 Runs/ 5 SB

4) Willy Taveras – .481/ 1 HR/ 5 RBI’s/ 7 Runs/ 4 SB

5) Carl Crawford – .448/ 1 HR/ 5 RBI’s/ 9 Runs/ 3 SB

6) Jose Reyes – .333/ 1 HR/ 7 RBI’s/ 6 Runs/ 5 SB

7) Justin Upton – .357/ 3 HR/ 6 RBI’s/ 8 Runs/ 2 SB

8) Evan Longoria – .348/ 3 HR/ 11 RBI’s/ 6 Runs/ 1 SB

9) Johnny Damon – .462/ 3 HR/ 10 RBI’s/ 6 Runs/ 0 SB

10) Ryan Zimmerman – .469/ 3 HR/ 7 RBI’s/ 7 Runs/ 0 SB

Top 10 Pitchers:

1) Roy Halladay – 2 Wins/ 11 K’s/ 1.06 ERA/ 0.76 WHIP/ 17 IP

2) Jered Weaver – 1 Win/ 12 K’s/ 1.12 ERA/ 0.50 WHIP/ 16 IP

3) Johan Santana – 1 Win/ 16 K’s/ 0.00 ERA/ 0.98 WHIP/ 13.33 IP

4) Justin Verlander – 1 Win/ 11 K’s/ 0.00 ERA/ 0.44 WHIP/ 9 IP

5) Ubaldo Jimenez – 2 Wins/ 10 K’s/ 1.29 ERA/ 0.93 WHIP/ 14 IP

6) CC Sabathia – 1 Win/ 8 K’s/ 0.00 ERA/ 0.56 WHIP/ 9 IP

7) Eric Stults – 1 Win/ 5 K’s/ 0.00 ERA/ 0.44 WHIP/ 9 IP

Wandy Rodriguez – 1 Win/ 7 K’s/ 0.00 ERA/ 0.63 WHIP/ 8 IP

9) Mark Buehrle – 1 Win/ 5 K’s/ 0.00 ERA/ 0.38 WHIP/ 8 IP

10) Brian Wilson – 1 Win/ 2 Saves/ 3 K’s/ 2.45 ERA/ 0.55 WHIP/ 3.67 IP

Hazaa

If you have comments, questions, swarmy outbursts or ideas for a future Hump Day Look See segment your comments are welcome below. If you prefer the more traditional electronic mail route you can drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Five For Fighting: Ryan Hallam Of Fighting Chance Fantasy

J Ellet Lambie — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:24:08 -0400

Originally published 5/17/2009 at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com. Stats updated 5/26.

Welcome to the inaugural edition of "Five For Fighting," where I’ll team up with other fantasy baseball bloggers and columnists to ask and answer questions on players, strategy, trends, and other facets of the game we love.

Each installment will see yours truly trade five questions with a talented writer from elsewhere on the web. My questions and their answers will appear here, in this humble forum, while their questions and my answers will appear on their sites—in this case, here.

Hopefully this segment will provide you with valuable insight from a variety of sources and introduce you to new writers whose work I think you’ll enjoy.

Joining me today is Ryan Hallam of Fighting Chance Fantasy. His site is part of the Fantasy Players Network, and features daily updates on all things fantasy baseball. In addition, Ryan co-hosts the Fantasy Baseball Guru’s show on blog talk radio and contributes work in a variety of other sites and forums.

Although I haven’t known him long I consider him a friend, and a solid source for opinion and analysis. Special thanks to Ryan for taking the time to be a part of this segment.

Now let’s get to it:

1) Which Struggling Slugger is the Better Play Going Forward—David Ortiz or Lance Berkman?

Boy, a tough one right off the bat. Both guys have been horribly struggling to start the season. Berkman, at the minute I am writing this, is hitting .231 with 10 homers and 27 RBI. He has been dealing with some wrist issues, but has been back in the lineup for a few weeks.

Ortiz was just mercifully benched last weekend by the Red Sox, as he is hitting .195, with one homer and 18 RBI. You can really tell that this cold streak is really in his head, and his frustration becomes more and more evident with every out he makes. He has shown some flashes of breaking out of it, but they are quickly followed by more poor production.

I am going to go with Berkman for a couple of reasons. For one, I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt that this wrist injury has had some effect on his game. Obviously, a hitter needs a healthy wrist to be effective.

The second reason is the difference in the appearance of Ortiz. Now, I’m not one to go out and say someone was doing something they shouldn’t have been doing, but it is obvious that Ortiz isn’t the same size he was during his career when he was belting out 50 homers. Perhaps that has something to do with his power outage as well.

2) Which Struggling Pitcher is the Better Play Going Forward—Ricky Nolasco or Ryan Dempster?

I guess I’m going to say Nolasco, but that is only because he is younger, and I think he can turn it around some. I don’t expect either to perform to the level that they did last year.

I am still trying to figure out how in the world Ryan Dempster went 17-6 last season. I know he was a decent starter years ago for the Marlins, but he was a train wreck at best as a closer. How could he be so much better over seven innings than he was in just one?

Dempster went on a little hot streak, allowing two earned runs in three of four starts, but collapsed Monday, coughing up six runs in four innings to Pittsburgh.

I am also worried about Nolasco. I have been checking out his minor league stats, and they were good, until he got to AAA. He only made 13 starts there, but he was 2-5 with an ERA over 10.00.

He was great last year, and all of the Marlins seem to be struggling right now. Instead of the collapse, I have been waiting for him to improve.

I can’t say I love either, but if I had to make a choice, I think I would go with Nolasco.

3) Which Up-and-Coming Middle Infielder Do You Have More Confidence in Going Forward—Alberto Callaspo or Asdrubal Cabrera?

Both guys I think are very similar players. They both have hit for a pretty good average, very little power, not much speed, and are driving in runs at a pretty good clip given their positions.

Cabrera is hitting .316, with one homer, 25 RBI, and seven steals. His best season in the minors was a AA-Akron, when he hit .310 with eight homers, 56 RBI, and stole 23 bases in 96 games. That was by far the most speed he's ever shown in a season.

Callaspo is hitting .309 with two homers and 16 RBI. He hasn’t stolen any bases. His best running years came very early in his minor league career, as he hasn’t been doing much stealing lately.

He does seem to offer more power than Cabrera. In 89 games in 2005, he hit 10 home runs, and the next season he parked seven in the seats in 114 games. He has also hit over .330 in his last two seasons in the minors.

I think if I had to choose one, I would go with Cabrera. He is a couple of years younger, plus he seems to offer much more on the base paths, without a great sacrifice in the power, as neither guy hits many home runs.

I think he is the more well-rounded of the two. I would like to have him as my MI, perhaps at UTIL, or on my bench in case of injury. Not sure I would want him starting every day for me.

4) If You Had to Choose between Building Your Lineup around Speed or Power Which Would You Choose and Why?

I always build around power, and I’ll tell you why. For one thing, power hitters tend to help you out in both points and roto leagues more than speed guys.

In roto leagues, power hitters will help you out in HRs and RBI, but they also tend to be high on the list of runs scored more than you would think.

Last season, the top ten hitters by runs scored were: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Lance Berkman, Chase Utley, Nate McLouth, Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, and Jason Bay. There are more 30 HR guys on that list than there are 30 SB guys.

As far as average is concerned, the top guys in steals didn’t really help you much there. Willy Taveras hit .251; Reyes hit .297; Jacoby Ellsbury, .280; Jimmy Rollins, .277; and B.J. Upton hit .273. All of those are decent averages, but none are really helping you out.

Power players will give you more help in more categories. However, you can’t just forget about steals, either.

In points leagues, home runs tend to be worth more than steals, not to mention the RBIs and runs scored points that come with them. In any kind of league, I base my team around power.

And don’t forget—chicks dig the long ball!

5) What’s the Best Name for a Fantasy Team You’ve Ever Heard?

Man, there have been so many. Right now I’m in a league where a guy has a team the Dominican Nutrition Center, which of course is a play on all of the Dominican players getting in trouble for steroids.

My brother has been sticking with Abraham Drinkin’ for far too long. It was funny the first year, but I think he needs a change.

One of my favorites—and this is a little off color: If you say the words Aural Sects, it gives quite the different meaning than what it looks like. A couple others I have liked are Warning Track Power, Frozen Ropes, and Bay Being Bay (a play on Manny Ramirez).

Thanks again to Ryan from Fighting Chance Fantasy for being a good sport. He was gracious enough to provide me with 5 questions, the answers to which you can check out here.

You can also check it out at the Bleacher Report Here.

Until next time kiddies, be well.

Hazaa.

Have a question, comment or suggestion? Are you bored and enjoy sending random emails to strangers? Drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

FBR: The (Matt) Holliday Weekend Edition

J Ellet Lambie — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:18:43 -0400

Originally published 5/22/2009 at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com

The FBR, or Fantasy Baseball Ramblings segment, appears regularly like Alyssa Milano trading for Grady Sizemore on that ESPN fantasy baseball commercial. Think of it as a friend who comes into your home and spews obscure stats and bold predictions while drinking all your beer. Enjoy.

With Memorial Day weekend afoot let’s examine some players and items of interest over this Matt Holliday weekend.

The Oakland A’s outfielder has rebounded from his slow-motion start. He’s 16-43 (.372) in his last 15 games with 2 home runs, 9 RBI’s, 11 runs scored and a steal. On the season as a whole the former Coors Field Killer is .271/5/26/21/1 over the famous five roto categories. There is reason to believe he’s only going to get better. Since 2006 he’s a .349 hitter in May and boasts a .368 average in June, his two best batting average months of the season. The A’s take on the struggling Diamondbacks for 3 games starting tonight—Holliday is a .301 hitter against them with 20 extra base hits and 25 RBI’s in 183 at-bats (since ‘06). Next up on the schedule—the Mariners and Rangers, teams which Matt is 8-23 against going back to ‘06.

The holiday weekend brings us the first taste of interleague play of this, the 2009 campaign. The Milwaukee Brewers will head to Minnesota, meaning the defensively challenged rookie Mat Gamel should find himself firmly planted in the DH spot. If he hits as well as he can maybe someone will give him that extra T he needs in his first name. Another name to watch in the AL only DH role platoon is Ryan Howard of the Phillies. Be it at first base or in the swingers only spot Howard will square off against A.J. Burnett in the launching pad of New Yankee Stadium. Howard has two hits against A.J. in his career, both home runs. Big Ryan has clubbed four ding dongs in his last seven games and has an excellent chance of adding to that total this weekend.

In turn make sure you get any and every Yankee on your team into your lineup tonight. The Yank’s are on a nine game win streak and will face Brett Myers, who hands out homers like those guys on the Vegas strip hand out stripper coupons, not that I’d know anything about that mind you. I’m predicting a 12-10 final score tonight.

The Cleveland Indians will look to get off the schneid against their interstate rival Reds starting tonight. Nothing cheers up a struggling lineup like seeing the names Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey as the probable startes for the first two games of a series played in a very hitter friendly ballpark. I think Victor Martinez and his pals might hit 11 home runs this weekend, just a hunch.

Zach Duke will bring his 5-3 record and his 2.84 ERA to Chicago to take on the scuffling White Sox. The Sox are fresh off a 20-1 ass whipping and strike out 7.6 times per game, the most of any team in baseball. One of two things will happen tonight—Duke will fan eight or more and the Pirates will take down the Sox, or the pale hose will feed off the Joe Riggins like shower speech Ozzie Guillen probably gave them yesterday and pound young zachary into submission—I’d put the odds at 70/30 for Duke to come out on top.

In the battle of Florida Ricky Nolasco will take the hill against the Rays tonight. Ricky finally showed some signs of life in his last outing, only to have it washed away by rain. Keep a close eye on him tonight and over his next couple of starts. This is a turning point for him to say the least. If he’s back to the form he showed the second half of ‘08 you should get him back into your rotation quickly. If he falters again you might want to prepare yourself for a DL trip soon with a mysterious injury that the Marlins will use as an excuse to send him down and work on his mechanics. He’s allowed 70 baserunners, 12 home runs, and 36 earned runs (most in MLB) in 41 and 2/3 innings this season.

The Texas Rangers couldn’t board the bus out of Detroit fast enough. After a three game shellacking at the hands of the Tigers the Rangers are back in Texas to take on the Houston Astros. The Rangers have scored the eighth most runs in MLB, while the Astros rank 21st overall in team ERA—see where I’m going with this? Teams that just got swept after winning seven straight who then go to a warm weather city to play a poor pitching team in a hitter friendly ballpark are usually good bets to produce a large number of runs. Josh Hamilton may or may not play tonight, tomorrow or ever with his on again off again injuries, but the rest of the Rangers lineup can still hit. My prediction—Chris Davis (Shelton) will go 2-10 with two home runs, three walks, and eight strikeouts in the three game set. Watch Andruw Jones and Marlon Byrd this weekend, I have a hunch.

Those red-hot Tigers will host the Colorado Rockies this weekend. The Tig’s have won six straight, the Rockies are 9-14 on the road and seem to be in a state of general disarray. Miguel Cabrera is a .431 hitter with an OPS of 1.101 against the Rockies since 2006. Magglio Ordonez will be back in the lineup after missing three games to be with his wife while she had surgery in Venezuela. Ordonez has hit in eight straight games and has an extra base hit in three straight. Colorado pitching could be what Maggs needs to extend those streaks and show us all that he is really back after his slow start.

In late breaking news this afternoon, Scott Kazmir will get a two week holiday from his duties with the Rays, as he’s been placed on the 15-day DL with a left quadriceps strain. Troy Percival will also hit the DL with right shoulder tendinitis, which is a little scarier. I’m not surprised, I doubt it’s actually a quad injury and tend to believe this is more of a little break to work on his mechanics and confidence in some rehab appearances—but that’s just the conspiracy theorist in me. The surprising part of the move to me was that Tampa Bay called up two players not named David Price to replace them.

Right-hander Dale Thayer, a right handed reliever, will take the spot of Percival while Reid Brignac will take the spot of Kazmir, Brignac is a shortstop, a position the Rays are already deep at with Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist. Makes you wonder, doesn’t it? No word yet on who will close for the Rays in the interim, although Joe Nelson is reported to be the next in line.

And finally today a double dose of good karma:

Tony Gwynn Jr. was acquired by the Padres this week. the little Tony was hitting .309 with a .387 OBP and 15 steals at AAA before the trade. Playing time is a question mark, making his value tough to predict right now, but anybody named Gwynn wearing a Padres uniform is someone I’m going to keep my eyes on. Good Karma to you young man.

And Good Karma and condolences go out to Scott Schoeneweis of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Schoeneweis has been placed on the bereavement list after the tragic and unexpected passing of his wife. Losing someone you love is never easy, and being a major league ballplayer doesn’t make it any less heart-breaking. My sincere best wishes and prayers are with him and his family.

Until next time kiddies….

Hazaa

If you have comments, questions, swarmy outbursts or ideas for a future FBR segment your comments are welcome below. If you prefer the more traditional electronic mail route you can drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

From Zebulon and Back: The New Dontrelle Willis

J Ellet Lambie — Tue, 26 May 2009 13:48:20 -0400

Originally published 5/19/09 at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com

Dontrelle Willis needed this.

He needed to step onto that mound at Comerica Park and feel the evening sun shine upon him, the clouds in retreat, the swirling winds at bay. He needed to kick his right leg high into the air and bring his left arm across his body in perfect plane as the baseball left his fingertips with a sizzle. He needed this, and so did we.

Once upon a time Dontrelle Wayne Willis was an eighth round draft pick of the Chicago Cubs. He was a lanky, 6′4″ left hander baby-faced and fresh out of Encinal high school in Alameda, California. He had just completed a 12-1 senior season in which he posted an 0.82 ERA and was named the California Player of the Year (medium-sized schools). It was the summer of 2000, and all of 18 years old, Dontrelle left California for Mesa, Arizona and the fall league. This was something new. This was different. This was the beginning.

In the first inning tonight Dontrelle retired Ian Kinsler on a ground ball to third base and Elvis Andrus on a fly ball to right field. Then the trouble started.

Michael Young blasted a double deep to right field and Andruw Jones drew a walk, putting two men on with two men out.

The Comerica Park faithful bit their lips in anticipation of another outburst at the hands of Mr. Willis. This Dontrelle was no longer the 18-year-old eighth round draft pick, no longer the 20-year-old who was traded to the Marlins after two strong minor league campaigns, no longer the young man with the 1.83 ERA who was named the Marlins 2002 minor league pitcher of the year.

This was a different Dontrelle. The one who had been a Tiger for 18 months and had nary a win to show for it. This was the Dontrelle who had lost his lanky frame, had filled out, fattened up, and fallen flat. This was the Dontrelle who became the butt of jokes, and he was about to again, with two on and two out. And then he got Marlon Byrd to fly out to end the inning. It would be the first of 17 straight Texas Rangers he sent to the bench unhappy.

In the spring of 2003, the 21-year-old Dontrelle was pitching in Zebulon, North Carolina for the Marlins AA affiliate Mudcats. The population at the time was 4,329 people, and each and every one of them was in for a treat. They had never seen anything like the young man with the crooked hat and the big leg kick.

Dontrelle brought the leg kick with him from California, from the days of his youth when he invented it to fool his friends in neighborhood one-on-one pitcher vs. hitter duels, because they had gotten used to the way he used to throw. It worked. It kept working, so nobody messed with it. His coaches left it alone, and he rewarded them by winning his first 4 starts in Zebulon, the town named for the biblical son of Jacob. The Marlins noticed. They rewarded Dontrelle in turn by calling him to Florida. On May 9, he took the mound in a major league game for the first time, at 21 years of age.

The young man who never knew his father, idolized his mother, an iron worker in the bay area, and loved to throw the baseball by his friends got the chance to throw it by hitters at the highest level of competition in the world.

The world couldn’t match up.

Dontrelle rattled off eight straight victories en route to a 14-6 record and a trip to the playoffs. He beat Tom Glavine. He beat Randy Johnson. He beat everybody, for 6 weeks. He won the National League Rookie of the Year, astonishing fans and foes along the way with the big leg kick and the big fastball that dove away from hitters like it heard a loud noise in the night.

This was the Dontrelle the Tigers wanted. This was the Dontrelle fans wanted. This was the Dontrelle that Dontrelle wanted back.

Willis struck out five Texas Rangers tonight. He walked Andruw Jones twice and allowed a double to Michael Young, in the first inning, the only hit he surrendered.

Through 6 and 1/3 innings he threw 101 pitches, 61 of them for strikes. His fastball touched 93 miles per hour while his change-up hit 72 MPH and assorted breaking pitches fell softly in the strike zone everywhere in between.

For the first time in a very long time Dontrelle Willis looked like the pitcher everyone wanted him to be.

In 2004 Willis fell victim to the sophomore slump. Perhaps he was hungover from the 2003 World Series, where the Marlins became champions for the second time in team history. Perhaps hitters briefly solved the riddle of his mythical delivery. Either way Dontrelle labored through 2004, finishing with a 10-11 record and an ERA over four.

He responded by showing up for 6 AM off-season workouts. He worked to ‘tighten up” his delivery, holding the ball a fraction of a second longer to create more deception. The 23-year-old version of Dontrelle Willis entered the 2005 season with doubters for the first time.

Throughout his youth, his dazzling spell in the minors and his rookie year he was the big kid who could get everybody out, and everybody loved him for it. Now he was the big kid that hitters had figured out and the fans and the media began to express their doubts. The big kid spent 2005 proving people wrong for the first time.

Dontrelle made the All-Star team for the second time in 2005. He lead the NL in wins, complete games and shutouts en route to a 22-10 record with a 2.63 ERA. This Dontrelle was everything little Dontrelle dreamed of being. He finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young voting and became the first African-American 20-game winner in the majors since Dave Stewart in 1990. Dontrelle was on a roll.

The next year Willis was a .500 pitcher. His walks went up, his strike outs went down and he allowed more than twice as many home runs as the previous season. He was 24 years old, with two incredible seasons and two mediocre ones under his belt.

It seemed he had the ability to be a god, and the mortality to be human after all. He was human, at most, in December of that year outside a night club in Miami Beach.

The police found him drunk, standing next to his double parked Bentley, pissing in the street. The incident rubbed away a few layers of the polish his youthful success had gleaned on his image. He apologized profusely and vowed to be a better man, a better example. He was drinking too much and enjoying the fruit of his celebrity too much and not pitching enough.

The following season was the worst of his career to date. He finished 10-15, leading the league in starts (35) and most earned runs allowed (118). His 5.17 ERA hung around his neck like an albatross. The shine was gone. The trickery was gone. The lanky body was gone. The attention was gone, at least the good kind.

Dontrelle needed a change. Early in January of 2008 he got that change, when he was traded to Detroit along with Miguel Cabrera.

While some fans from afar remembered Willis in his glory the Marlins included him in their haste. He had to go. He was no longer the innocent, smiling young man who brought smiles to Zebulon – he was the drunk has-been who was caught urinating in the street, with the contract the Marlins wanted to shed.

His arrival in Detroit gave Dontrelle the second chance he thought about all of 2007. While we all read about his Rookie of the Year campaign, we never read about the depression he felt those last 2 years in Florida. We remember the ‘05 campaign when he was unhittable, we never knew the Dontrelle after that, the one who was lost, the one who was confused, the one wasn’t Dontrelle anymore.

But he had a new team and a new chance. A chance he blew right out of the gate.

In 7 starts with the Tigers in 2008 Dontrelle Willis was 0-2 with a 9.38 ERA. He walked 35 batters in 24 innings. He was bigger, rigid, looked nervous and didn’t have the fastball to get the bat boy out, let alone the AL Central. So he was jettisoned to the minor leagues. He didn’t have to be.

He had the service time to refuse an assignment. He could have forced the Tigers to play him or buy him out of the three year, 27-million-dollar contract he had just signed. But he accepted the demotion gladly. He wanted the chance to get better, to figure it out, to get back to the Dontrelle he used to be.

From that point until last Wednseday, Dontrelle was a Lakeland Flying Tiger, a Toledo Mudhen, an Erie Sea Wolf. He compiled a 4-6 record over 81 innings and change with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, in the minor leagues.

He had gone from tiny Zebulon to the World Series Champion Florida Marlins to the doghouse, to Detroit and back to little Lakeland, population 78,452. Coaches and doctors and more coaches and more doctors looked at his knee, his arm, his shoulder, his hips and finally his head, where the problem was all along.

This spring Dontrelle was diagnosed with an anxiety disorder. He was given medication and sent back to work. No one expected him to travel back in time to re-unite with with the 21-year-old Dontrelle, or the 23-year-old Dontrelle. That Dontrelle was gone. The body was gone. The memory was gone.

This would have to be a new Dontrelle, the version he wanted to be, the version he needed to be. His arm slot was re-invented. His breaking ball was massaged into a new form. His cut fastball was a few miles per hour slower than it used to be. He did bring one thing with him for old time’s sake though, that big ole leg kick. The smile was gone, but the kick was there.

Last Wednesday he went to the mound in the metrodome, beneath a permanent off-white sky of tarp and lights. He was average, maybe. He allowed 4 earned runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in 4 and 2/3 innings. Average, maybe.

So when Dontrelle left the Comerica Park dugout tonight and walked to the mound with his crooked hat and his big leg kick there were many among us who thought we might be witnessing the beginning of the final end, the coda, the omen of his failures to the amen of his success.

With two on and two out, the world of Dontrelle Willis past, present and future stood there on that mound, shaking off signs, nodding his head, working quickly. With two on and two out, Dontrelle Willis got Marlon Byrd to hit a fly ball to left-center field, softly into the glove of Josh Anderson. The next time a Texas Ranger reached base it was the seventh inning, and the last batter he would face.

The bullpen did its job and nailed down a 4-0 victory, the first for Dontrelle Willis as a Tiger, the first for Dontrelle Willis version number.....I lost count, the first of what we all hope will be many, many more. And for the first time in a long, long time I saw Dontrelle Willis in the Tigers' dugout and he was smiling. That big kid smile.

Is he back?

Don’t ask - he doesn’t know, you don’t know, I don’t know.

But tonight he went 6 and 1/3 and dominated every damn minute of it. Like the son of Jacob back from Israel. That’s a good new start, let’s just leave it there for now.

Let’s enjoy a big kid finding his way back from a long way gone. Let’s imagine what could be, what might be. Let’s watch him smile and return the favor.

We can worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. I don’t think Dontrelle will be worrying though, he’ll be too busy getting to know himself all over again.

Hazaa

Big thanks to Kurt from Mack Avenue Tigers and Lee from Tiger Talesfor linking over to this post. Both gentlemen run excellent Tigers Blogs worthy of a visit.

have a question or a comment? leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

The State of the Detroit Tigers: One-Sixth of the Way Through

J Ellet Lambie — Tue, 26 May 2009 13:34:17 -0400

Originally published May, 8 2009 at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com

With 27 games in the books the Tigers are officially one-sixth of the way through the 2009 season. Today we’ll take a look at the highlights and lowlights so far, the teams ranks and grades and a few projections and predictions going forward.

I’ll be back with this same segment in another 27 games and every one-sixth of the season after. Let’s start with some of the baseline statistics.

Overall record: 14-13, Second place in the AL Central

Team Batting Average: .261, tied for 11th in the AL, tied for 17th in MLB

Team ERA: 4.16, 4th in the AL, tied for 11th in MLB

On the surface the Tigers appear to be the middle of the pack ballclub that their one game above .500 record indicates. Let’s look a little deeper.

Home Record: 8-5

Road Record: 6-8

Divisional Record: 6-5

Again, seems to be a pretty solid standing smack dab in the middle of mediocrity. Let’s look a little closer.

Day Games: 8-2

Night Games: 6-11

So the Tigers are a much better team under the natural light of day games than under the artificial light of night games, so far. Interesting, but hardly a strong enough indicator to predict their fate the rest of the season.

Although it affirms what I believe, baseball is better played in the daytime, I digress. Let’s go a little bit deeper still.

One-run games: 2-3

last 10: 5-5

Starting Pitchers won/loss: 10-10

Relief Pitchers won/loss: 4-3

Interesting. The perception has been that the Tigers starters have been significantly better than the bullpen. The reality thus far is that both categories are essentially a coin flip in terms of wins and losses. How about the ERA?

Starters ERA: 4.36

Relievers ERA: 4.69

Neither number is particularly impressive or horrific, but the difference of one-third of a run is hardly monumental. It seems the starters and relievers are equally yoked numerically. How about the hitters? Let’s dig a little deeper there.

Vs. right handed pitching (614 at-bats): .256, 22 HR, 99 RBI, 102 runs scored, .326 on-base %, .734 OPS (on-base + slugging %)

Vs. left handed pitching (288 at-bats): .271, 8 HR, 36 RBI’s, 38 runs scored, .348 on-base %, .775 OPS

The Tigers have a higher batting average, on-base % and OPS vs. lefties, interesting. The sample size is smaller of course, so let’s break it down a little more and compare.

At-bats per vs. right handers: 1 HR every 27.9 AB’s, 1 RBI every 6.2 AB’s, 1 run every 6 AB’s

At-bats per vs. left handers: 1 HR every 36 AB’s, 1 RBI every 8 AB’s, 1 run every 7.6 AB’s

Examined under this light the situation is still murky, but getting clearer. While the team garners hits more frequently against left handed pitching the boys in the old english D have a higher contact to damage ratio against righties.

The Tigers are simply more productive against right handed pitching, they score runs more frequently, which last time I checked is paramount in winning baseball games. So far it has taken the Tigers 1.6 more at-bats against lefties than righties to score 1 run. Doesn’t sound like much, until you consider the following names:

Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Matt Thornton, Cliff Lee, Aaron Laffey, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins—These are the prominent left handed pitchers within the AL Central that the Tigers will see a healthy dose of this season, plus assorted other less than prominent relievers and players yet to be called up or acquired via trade and left handed pitchers from the other teams on the schedule.

We saw what Mark Buehrle did to the Tigers last night. We saw what Liriano did to the Tigers on May 4. Cliff Lee took the loss against the Tigers on May 3, due in large part to Justin Verlander putting on a dominating show. In that start however the Tigers compiled 12 hits against Lee, but could plate only three runs.

The Tigers have faced a left handed starting pitcher 10 times thus far. While Detroit is 6-4 in those games the associated numbers tell a different story. In those ten games opposing left handed starters threw a combined 63-2/3 innings, allowed 64 hits and 35 walks to Tigers hitters, but surrendered only 28 earned runs, or a 4.02 ERA.

If you subtract Aaron Laffey’s awful start (he’s out of the rotation now) on May 2, the numbers come out to 60 and 1/3 innings, 58 hits and 20 walks with 23 earned runs allowed, or a 3.43 ERA.

Of the 78 baserunners the Tigers have had in those nine games against left handed starting pitchers only 29 percent have scored, meaning 71 percent of those baserunners have been stranded.

The Tigers will face a significant number of lefty starters in the remaining five-sixths of the season. If the team can’t find a way to plate more runners against them it could mean a long summer.

Let’s take a look at the studs and duds so far among the 2009 Tiger roster. We’ll start with the hitters.

The Studs

Brandon Inge: .278, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 20 runs scored. Brandon seems to have found an offensive groove with his modified stance and approach. He’s been his usual strong defensive self and has played a key part in numerous victories.

Miguel Cabrera: .390, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 17 runs scored. He’s a beast at the plate and is quickly and quietly becoming one of the better defensive first basemen in the AL.

Curtis Granderson: .259, 9 HR, 19 RBI, 20 runs scored, 3 stolen bases. After a slow start Curtis is finding his mojo. His power stroke has been out early and often and he’s starting to run a bit. He’s played excellent defense as well, no surprise there.

The Duds

Magglio Ordonez: .225, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 10 runs scored. Maggpipes has struggled with the stick again this April. His .282 career average in April is his lowest of any month. He’s seen time at DH, yielding to better defenders in right field more than once.

Carlos Guillen: .200, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 11 runs scored. It seems an aching shoulder has limited Carlos so far at the plate, at least that’s the explanation from the team upon placing him on the DL recently. He’s been a defensive liability in left field to say the least.

Gerald Laird: .236, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 13 runs scored. Gerald is in a two week funk at the moment that has sapped his batting average tremendously. He’s been solid behind the dish defensively, not sparkling, but solid.

Ryan Raburn: .063, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 runs scored. Offensively his numbers have spoken, he’s been downright abysmal at the plate in the 8 games he’s played and just as bad in the outfield. He’s supposed to be the answer to Josh Anderson against left handed pitching, so far the answer is wrong.

As for the pitchers...the studs are a little less consistent at this point.

Studs

Armando Galarraga: 3-2, 4.08 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 29 K’s, 16 BB’s in 35-1/3 innings pitched. He’s not your mondo, he’s not my mondo, he’s Armando. His first 4 starts were excellent, the last 2…well, not so good.

Bobby Seay: 0-0, 8 holds, 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 4 K’s, 2 BB’s in eight-and-one-third innings pitched. He doesn’t get the glory of the starters or the closer, but he’s arguably been the Tigers most reliable hurler so far.

Justin Verlander in his last 2 starts: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 20 K’s, 3 BB’s in 14 innings pitched. This version of Verlander has been unhittable. He’s reminding people that he is the ace of this staff and showing them why.

Edwin Jackson: 1-2, 3.08 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 28 K’s, 10 BB’s in 38 innings pitched. Meet the hard luck loser of the 2009 Tigers. In his 4 quality starts so far (6+ innings pitched, 3 or fewer earned runs, more K’s than walks) he’s 0-1.

In three starts where he has surrendered one earned run or less he has 1 win. If the boys start hitting for him he’ll have a heck of a record.

Duds

Justin Verlander in his first 4 starts: 0-2, 9.00 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 25 K’s and 9 BB’s in 21 innings pitched. I believe yuck is appropriate. His high K numbers hinted that he was close to finding his way, hopefully he stays on the right path going forward.

Brandon Lyon: 1-2, 0 saves, 0 holds, 5.11 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 4 K’s, 7 BB’s in 12-1/3 innings pitched. Mike Illitch paid $4 million for this? I would have worked a lot cheaper than that. Every time he enters a game I get a sharp pain in my eyes.

The Eddie Bonine/Nate Robertson experiment: combined the two are 1-0 with a 7.50 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, 12 K’s and 8 walks in 18 innings pitched. Long relief has been a problem and these two are chiefly responsible. The fact that Nate has a win reinforces the theory that the sun even shines on a dogs ass somedays.

As for Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Rick Porcello, Zach Minor, Fernando Rodney and the rest—they fall somewhere between good, bad and not enough information currently available. Suffice it to say the staff has some promise, and some holes.

How about the performance of the coaches and the organization? Glad you asked.

Jim Leyland is in the final year of his contract as manager of the Tigers. At this point, I can’t say if he’ll be back next year or not. I can say however that the answer to that question is entirely tied in to how this team performs in the next few months.

The honeymoon ride that came along with the magical 2006 run is over. His bargaining position for an extension has ostensibly become a game of what have you done for me lately?

On a few occasions he’s left a starting pitcher in the game when it was clear said starting pitcher just didn’t have it. This is not a new trend, Leyland lives by the pact that sometimes a starting pitcher will get shelled and it’s better to save the bullpen than to rescue him. I disagree, but it’s his team, for now.

Leyland and the teams upper management decided to try and salvage Carlos Guillen’s bat by moving him around the diamond over the last year. If his year-to-date performance in left field and at the plate is any indicator, that experiment has failed.

The outfield has been an ever changing collection of mix and match plug-ins based primarily on the unbreakable law in Leylands head of the lefty/right matchup. Curtis Granderson is now splitting time between the leadoff spot and the five hole.

Josh Anderson plays against righties, Ryan Raburn plays against lefties. With Marcus Thames and now Carlos Guillen on the DL and Matt Joyce in Tampa Bay the skipper and the GM have been tinkering with a variety of square pegs and round holes hoping to make something fit.

When the Tigers acquired Josh Anderson from the Braves on the eve of the opener we were told he would provide speed on the basepaths and increased range in the outfield to help Curtis Granderson patrol the massive Comerica Park outfield.

So far he’s done just that and more, when he’s been given the chance to play. Despite his success Jim Leyland has routinely benched him against left handed pitching in favor of Carlos Guillen and Ryan Raburn, who both can hit from the right side.

The logic is as old as the game itself, create an opposite pitching arm/batting side matchup in the hopes that you’ll get more offense. So far Guillen and Raburn are a combined 5-44 against left handers, that equates to a .114 batting average. Josh Anderson is a career .258 hitter against lefties.

He’s a superior defender to both alternatives and provides the aforementioned speed that has lead to 6 stolen bases and 11 runs in 51 at-bats.

Fellow offseason acquisition Adam Everett was billed as a significant defensive upgrade to the departed Edgar Renteria and the backup Ramon Santiago. Everett has committed 4 errors in 64 chances for a .938 fielding % to date.

Santiago has 2 errors in 53 chances for a .962 fielding % in response. Offensively Everett is hitting .259 with 1 home run, 10 RBI, 10 runs and 11 K’s in 58 at-bats. Santiago is hitting .256 with 1 home run, 12 RBI, 4 runs scored and 14 K’s in 39 at-bats. Sounds like a wash to me at this point.

For the record Renteria (now with the Giants) is hitting .253 with 2 home runs, 11 RBI’s and 16 runs scored with 15 K’s in 91 at-bats. He has committed 2 errors in 102 chances for a .980 fielding %.

Don’t take this to mean I want Edgar back, I don’t. He’s an NL player if I’ve ever seen one and it was the right move to send him packing. I’m only stating that the replacements have yet to provide any notable improvement. I believe Everett is a better defender than he has shown thus far, let’s hope that turns out to be the case.

The Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson trade appears destined to go down in history as a swap that helped both clubs fill a need. At this point it’s fair to say the Tigers got the better end of the deal.

While Jackson has been excellent, Joyce has struggled in a backup role with the Rays, hitting .100 in 10 at-bats. Both players have the ability to help their teams win games and should blossom going forward if given the chance to play.

I’m going to count this one in the win/loss column as a big win. With Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis out of the picture to date Edwin Jackson has anchored the staff and given the team a chance to win nearly every outing, job well done Mr. Dombrowski.

Overall the team offense has produced 140 runs in 27 games, or 5.19 per game, good for 13th in Major League Baseball. The team has surrendered 4.88 total runs per game, good for 13th best in the majors as well.

I suppose there you have it, the Tigers are approximately the 13th best team in baseball, just about the average. Whether expectations made us think they would be better or worse at this point is a matter for debate another time, now it’s time for the grades.

The Grades

Offense: B- The Tigers have outscored their opponents 140-132 going into tonight's game against the Indians. More often than not the team is producing enough runs to win and has shown the ability to dominate by scoring nine or more runs six times out of 27 contests.

The Tigers have scored six runs or more 10 times and have the potential to be a powerful offensive club for the balance of the season. Veterans like Magglio, Carlos Guillen, Gerald Laird and Placido Polanco are currently performing below their career marks – to improve this grade that will need to change.

Defense: C+ I’m not including pitching here, we’ll address that next. The Tigers have committed 16 errors in 986 chances for a .984 fielding %. Questionable scoring decisions have kept this number lower than it should be.

The team has turned 76 double plays and surrendered 15 un-earned runs, or more than half a run per game (0.56 to be exact). Gerald Laird has thrown out 4 of 10 runners attempting to steal, or 40 percent—he has a 4.57 catchers ERA. Overall the Tigers have been average with frequent web gems and blunders both.

Pitching: C+ Consistency is the key ingredient in this grade. While both the starters and the relief core have shown the ability to get hitters out and shut down opposing lineups the group has also laid some eggs.

Both Verlander and Galarraga have flip-flopped between unhittable and unthinkable while the bullpen has been mediocre overall. Brandon Lyon, Juan Rincon and Nate Robertson need to demonstrate the consistent ability to get hitters out and the rotation needs help from the likes of Willis, Bonderman and whoever else can get it done every five days.

If Verlander, Jackson and Galarraga can pitch through the next one-sixth of the season the way I know they can this group could be among the best in the game—if not, it could be a long summer.

Management: C- I’m including coaching and the front office here. Nightly lineup and bullpen decisions continue to cost this team wins while the front office did a passable job in improving the roster.

For every early season success I want to credit to the coaches I see a disappointment they have yet to correct. If Dontrelle can finally help this team and Everett lives up to his reputation this grade will rise next time.

Overall: C+ 14-13 is what it is, just a tick above average. The record over the next month will tell the ultimate tale of this teams performance.

Going forward….

In the next 27 games the Tigers will face the following opponents – Cleveland (3), Minnesota (3), Oakland (3), Texas (3), Colorado (3), Kansas City (3), Baltimore (4), Boston (3) and Los Angeles (2). 13 of these games will be on the road, 14 at Comerica Park. The combined record as of today of these teams is 121-132.

Question marks hang over two spots in the starting rotation in that time. Dontrelle Willis will take the mound against Minnesota on May 13, his first start of the season.

By the time I write the next installment of this review series he could have made as many as five starts or as few as one. When will Jeremy Bonderman be back with the back club and what will he have to offer? Who knows. As the weather gets warmer the ball flies farther, can the offense take advantage of this? Can the pitching staff prohibit this?

I’m predicting the Tigers will be 16-11 in their next 27 games, bringing their season mark to 30-24. Where that ranks among the AL Central has as much to do with the remaining teams in it as it does with how the Tigers play, but I expect they’ll be in the hunt for the division lead.

Other predictions (sure to be wrong):

Placido Polance will be hitting .300 or better at the 54 game mark. Miguel Cabrera will be among the top five in average, home runs and RBI’s at that point. Justin Verlander will be 3-2 in his next five starts with an ERA under 3.50.

Brandon Lyon will end up on the DL before the all-star break—it’s the fancy new way to shut a veteran down for a couple of weeks to figure out what’s wrong with him without outright sending him to the minors.

Marcus Thames will return but not find his stroke, mostly due to lingering abdominal issues, slightly due to a lack of playing time—I expect him back in the fold around May 25th. And finally, Ryan Raburn will be sent down to Toledo, where he belongs.

Hazaa

Have a question, comment or idea? Post your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com