Bleacher Report - Articles by James Little

Statistical Power Rankings After Indy

James Little — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 15:19:09 -0400

Here's the Statistical Power Rankings for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series after Indianapolis.

Notes:

* Greg Biffle moved up four spots from 14th to 10th.

* Juan Pablo Montoya dropped two spots even though he had an amazing race, but one mistake will hurt you.

* Kyle Busch dropped two spots as well.

* Clint Bowyer dropped out of the top 15.

* Brian Vickers moved into the top 15.

#1: Tony Stewart (362.5 Points) - NSC Ranking: 1st
Last Week: 1st

- Did Hendrick Motorsports give open-book access to Haas Racing last season? If so, their drivers were awful. Stewart has taken advantage of the open-book between Hendrick and Stewart-Haas... but as questioned in a Yahoo Sports article, will that book stay open come chase time?

#2: Jimmie Johnson (321.5 Points) - NSC Ranking: 2nd
Last Week: 3rd

- When it comes to Jimmie Johnson, does his wins seem unexciting? I think he's a great racer, but I guess I would have been more excited to see Juan Pablo Montoya win at Indy than Jimmie Johnson. I will give him the shout out for passing Mark Martin to get the lead after JPM had a speeding penalty on pit road.

#3: Jeff Gordon (303.5 Points) - NSC Ranking: 3rd
Last Week: 2nd

- He didn't challenge for the win, he didn't even get into the top 5 at one of his best race tracks. Maybe he was trying some new things as he's a lock to get into the chase. I think that back problem is more of a problem than he's letting on. Let's hope not and he's just saving the best Gordon for the chase.

#4: Mark Martin (248 Points) - NSC Ranking: 9th
Last Week: 6th

- Four Hendrick alliance cars in the top four of the Power Rankings. Martin is hot, he was hungry for another win and almost got it at Indy. I guess on the last restart he should have chose the other side, that is how Jimmie Johnson got the better of him.

#5: Kurt Busch (229 Points) - NSC Ranking: 4th
Last Week: 4th

- Kurt Busch wanted to be close to Jimmie Johnson so he could keep the rivalry going and prevent Johnson from winning. Guess that's hard to do when he finishes 27th. Not a good day for him, guess you could say he took another week off at Indy.

#6: Kasey Kahne (211 Points) - NSC Ranking: 8th
Last Week: 8th

- With another top ten, Kahne is keeping himself in the chase. He still can't be too sure yet, as from his spot to 13th is only 121 points. If he keeps getting top tens, there is no reason he won't make the chase.

#7: Denny Hamlin (210 Points) - NSC Ranking: 6th
Last Week: 5th

- After four out of five top fives in the last five races, Hamlin gives us a 34th place finish. He has some cushion in the top 12, but he'll need to keep getting top 10's to make sure he's solidly in the chase.

#8: Carl Edwards (203 Points) - NSC Ranking: 5th
Last Week: 7th

- Cousin Carl isn't even close to winning races this season. I still think he's doing it on purpose and waiting for the chase to start winning. We will find out if that is true come chase time.

#9: Ryan Newman (192.5 Points) - NSC Ranking: 7th
Last Week: 12th

- After some hope last week with a 6th place run, he gives us a 14th place run. While that's not horrible, can he get back into the top ten?

#10: Greg Biffle (192 Points) - NSC Ranking: 11th
Last Week: 14th

- He got a much needed top five. That was after four bad weeks. We will see if this is just a fluke or something he can build on that will get him into the chase.

Rest of the Top 15:

#11: Matt Kenseth (188 Points) - NSC Ranking: 12th

Last week: 11th

#12: Juan Pablo Montoya (184.5 Points) - NSC Ranking: 10th
Last Week: 10th

- Quick shout out to JPM: This guy should have won the race at Indy, but one mistake can be costly. With the win, he could have moved up to 6th place in the NSC Rankings, yet he loses a spot to move to 10th. Pit road violations are violations that can't be made in the chase. If he does, he won't have a chance at the Sprint Cup. I hope he learns from Sunday's race and it fuels him to a win this season. If anyone can do it, it's JPM.

#13: David Reutimann (175 Points) - NSC Ranking: 13th
Last Week: 12th

#14: Brian Vickers (174 Points) - NSC Ranking: 15th
Last Week: Not Rated

#15: Kyle Busch (155 Points) - NSC Ranking: 14th
Last Week: 13th

Manny Parra: What a Difference Triple-A Can Be

James Little — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:46:01 -0400

Okay, it was his first game back, but this has to be great news for Ken Macha, Ryan Braun, Doug Melvin, and Brewers fans in general that Manny Parra pitched a great game Thursday afternoon.

His line today:

7.0 innings, 3 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, and 7 K

His last three games in the majors:

1.2 innings, 6 hits, 6 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
5.2 innings, 8 hits, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
4.0 innings, 11 hits, 10 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Total: 11.1 innings, 25 hits allowed, 21 earned runs, seven walks, and nine strikeouts

That is what caused him to be sent down for almost a month in the minors.

"[It's] disappointing, more than anything. I know what kind of pitcher I am. I just haven't pitched well at all," Parra said on June 13, 2009, in the locker room after being told during the game that he was going to be sent down to Triple-A Nashville.

When asked about what he planned to work on when he got down to Triple-A, Parra said, "Command." He also added that he felt uncomfortable the whole year and hadn't found anything that was working for him so far this season. Lastly, he mentioned that he needed to work on his consistency.

I was in the press room when they announced that Parra would be sent down to Triple-A on June 13. Media personnel talked with Parra about being sent down. I could tell he was very disappointed, but the 26-year-old southpaw was mature enough to know that he could fix his problems in the minors.

After pitching a few games in the minors, the Brewers called up Parra after posting a 1-2 record with a 2.92 ERA.

“He pitched a couple good games, and he’ll be given the opportunity to take charge of what we’d like to see him take charge of. And that’s being a guy that’s going to start for us every fifth day,” Ken Macha said.

That command he hoped to work on while at Triple-A seems to have paid off as Parra gave up only one walk on Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals. This could be a sign that he has turned it around.

Pundits will insist that this was only one game, and they could be right. This might just be one game, but it is also hope that maybe some of the consistency he lost at the beginning of the season will come back.

Parra did have a perfect game going through four innings, but in the top of the fifth, Nick Stavinoha hit a single off of him. He battle his way out of the inning, allowing only two hits and no runs.

Brewers gave him the lead in the bottom of the fifth when Mike Cameron had a RBI single to bring Prince Fielder in.

After the top of the seventh, Parra came out of the game, and he did not get the the win as Carlos Villanueva and the Brewers bullpen gave five runs in the top of the eighth. The Brewers would go on and lose the game 5-1.

Does Parra pitching well in his game back from the minors mean that the Brewers won't pursue a trade for Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, or even another blockbuster deal to get Roy Halladay?

It is yet to be seen.

I would like to see one more start out of Parra before Doug Melvin decides if he should add another pitcher. I would also like to see the Brewers start hitting again before Melvin bets the farm again on someone like Halladay.

Are We Playing the Brett Favre Game?

James Little — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:59:07 -0400

When I was a child, I would love to play mystery games with my friends. We would have someone come up with a mystery to solve and the rest of us would have to figure it out while the other person left clues. We didn't know what to call the game until now: the Brett Favre Game.

I remember when I was the person giving the clues, I would make sure the clues were good enough to keep the game going, but not dull enough to bore out the people who were playing. You wanted something that was enough to keep people playing. That is exactly what Brett Favre is doing right now.

He loves that feeling he gets by playing these games. For Brett Favre, there are two things that he needs.

Attention from the media during the offseason when he is not on the football field, and throwing the football on Sunday afternoon. Sure, he says he likes being alone on the farm, but inside he needs to play these games.

Let's take a look at some of the clues Brett Favre has left his players of the Brett Favre Game over the last few months:

Jan. 3, 2009: ESPN reports that Favre tells Mike Tannenbaum of the Jets, "It may be time to look in a different direction."

Feb. 11, 2009: Brett Favre retires for the second time in two years, doesn't cry this time. He adds that, "It's time to leave." Now does that mean leave the game for good? Leave the Jets? Leave the country? Take a trip to outer space? Who knows with Brett Favre anymore. So let's say he's done for good in the NFL.

He won't be back, will he? Nah, this guy wouldn't change his mind again? Wait, we're playing the Brett Favre Game.

April 2009: Favre asks for his conditional release. Bus Cook says he's still retired. Now why would someone who's content to be retire ask for his conditional release? Oh, I know. He patched things up with Ted Thompson and wants to sign one of those one-day contracts with the Green Bay Packers and retire with them...umm, yeah right.

April 28, 2009: The New York Jets release Brett Favre from the reserve-retirement list. Again, Bus Cook reiterates that Favre is still retired. The drama builds.

May 2009: Reports all month about Favre meeting with the Vikings. Rumors are all about Favre and the Vikings.

June 8, 2009: ESPN report states that the quarterback underwent surgery to repair damage to his throwing arm in late May. Could this mean he is coming back to the NFL? Or he just needs a healthy arm to drive the big green tractor.

June 15, 2009: "It makes perfect sense as far as coming back," the quarterback said. "It's an offense I ran for 16 years. ...I could teach the offense." That is what Brett Favre said on the Joe Buck show, talking for the first time since he retired. Fueling more fire that he will likely return to the NFL.

July 3, 2009: Dr. James Andrews says, "I did his shoulder (arthroscopic) a few weeks ago. I visited him in Hattiesburg two weeks ago. He wants to play and he wants to play for the Minnesota Vikings. He wants to end his career on a high note and I hope he can. He's a tough guy, a great guy. I'm pulling for him. He wants to play. He just wants to make sure his shoulder and arm are healthy enough."

Dr. Andrews just fuels the fire that he'll most likely come out of retirement and play another year.

July 6, 2009: Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Favre put $30,000 on a down payment for a condo in Edina, MN. I've been to Edina before, lovely town...but I can't see Brett Favre retiring there...something must be up!

This game will continue right up until he officially signs with the Vikings. No doubt. He has to play this game, even though we the fans already figured out all the clues.

Not Saved By The Bells

James Little — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:53:23 -0400

You won't be hearing Hells Bells by ACDC at the All-Star Game this season, but you could probably make a case to why Trevor Hoffman should be on the National League All-Star team.

His line: 18 of 19 saves, 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP.

In any year, that line might easily get you into the All-Star game, but not this year.

Let's take a look at the closers who got in on the NL side (stats as of July 5th):

Heath Bell - 23 of 24 Saves, 1.49 ERA, 1.05 WHIP (25 career saves)

Jonathan Broxton - 20 of 22 Saves, 2.72 ERA, 0.86 WHIP (39 career saves)

Francisco Rodríguez - 21 of 24 Saves, 1.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP (229 career saves)

Francisco Cordero - 20 of 21 Saves, 1.80 ERA, 1.14 WHIP (231 career saves)

Ryan Franklin - 20 of 21 Saves, 0.84 ERA, 0.84 WHIP (38 career saves)

With numbers these five closers have put up this season, it's no wonder that Charlie Manuel couldn't find room for Major League Baseball's all-time saves leader. Trevor Hoffman commented on not being selected to the NL All-Star team, "It's always a tough decision to fill out a team of players from around the league. I would have been very blessed if I had the opportunity to go. It's not an easy process to choose a team...I obviously would have liked to have gone, but it isn't in the cards this year. It's an inexact science."

You can tell he was disappointed not being selected to the NL All-Star team at age 41 while putting up numbers that are better than his career average. He had a streak of 18 and 2/3 innings of not allowing a run to score to start the season. I was there to see him give up that first run to the Chicago White Sox at Miller Park back on the 14th of June. It was bound to happen, but he didn't let it bother him as he only allowed runs scored in two other games since then.

I would like to say that he saw snubbed from the team, but with the competition this year being so great, it's understandable not seeing him on the team this season. Let's hope he can continue to pitch well into the second half of the season and keep those saves rolling in.

Statistical Power Rankings After Daytona

James Little — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:10:13 -0400

This is my statistical debut for NASCAR power rankings. I have always liked reading power rankings every Monday on various sports websites. I thought I would give it go, but with a little twist. I will give my thoughts and opinions on the top 15 drivers, but my formula will actually give the order of the top 15 drivers. I've been working on this formula for the last couple of days trying to get it correct and accurate as possible.

A little bit about the formula I use. There are two parts of the formula. First, I give points per win, top 5, top 10, top 15, and top 20. These points are the season points. But when it comes to rankings, it is a lot about "what have you done lately." Because of that, I also give points to the top 10 drivers in the last three races. I feel this helps with the rankings being more accurate to the last few races.

Here are my Statistical NASCAR Sprint Cup Power Rankings

#1: Tony Stewart (324 Points) - NSC Ranking: 1st

- He's clearly the number one guy in NASCAR right now. No one, including Tony Stewart, could say at the beginning of the season that he would have two wins and be leading the Sprint Cup standings after 18 races. Even though he didn't want to win a race by spinning Kyle Busch, he has to be happy where he and Stewart Haas Racing is.

#2: Jimmie Johnson (271 Points) - NSC Ranking: 3rd

- Finished second at Daytona. With finishes of 1st, 7th, 22nd, 4th, 9th, 2nd, JJ has clearly shown that he's back and ready for his fourth consecutive title. Who's going to stop him? Tony Stewart might give him a good run.

#3: Jeff Gordon (266.5 Points) - NSC Ranking: 2nd

- I bet he's not too happy with his 28th place finish at Daytona. He has Chicago up next where he usually does pretty well. Expect a bounce back week from Jeff Gordon.

#4: Kurt Busch (244 Points) - NSC Ranking: 4th

- Top fives are great at restrictor plate tracks because you just don't know when the big one will happen. He was able to stay out of trouble and get that top five.

#5: Denny Hamlin (195 Points) - NSC Ranking: 6th

- After the disaster at Pocono, it looks like Hamlin has turned it around with results of 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 3rd. Can he keep it going?

#6: Carl Edwards (194 Points) - NSC Ranking: 5th

- When he saw Kyle Busch go up in the air and get hit around, he had to be thinking about what happened to him earlier this year. With the way this new car is built, it can handle just about anything.

#7: Matt Kenseth (174 Points) - NSC Ranking: 10th

- It's about time he get a top ten again. It took him a month to snap out of some average results. Kenseth is much better than what his team has done from week 3 on.

#8: Kasey Kahne (167.5 Points) - NSC Ranking: 12th

- He really wasn't a factor in the Daytona race. 15th place finish isn't that bad, but after a win a couple of weeks ago, I guess I started to expect more out of him.

#9: Juan Pablo Montoya (167 Points) - NSC Ranking: 11th

- Montoya is becoming very consistent and with that, he is gaining more confidence. I know he said he is points racing, and I think that is a good strategy for him. Because of that, he's had finishes of 8th, 6th, 6th, 12th, 9th. If he keeps that up, he should get into the chase and contend for a win or two.

#10: Kyle Busch (166 Points) - NSC Ranking: 8th

- Must be hating Daytona right about now. He could see the checkered flag one second and the next he could see Joey Logano in his side window going about 180 at him. One thing though about Kyle Busch is he is tough as nails. He's had a little tough luck so far, but expect him to get to victory lane soon.

Rest of the Top 15:

#11: Mark Martin (165 Points) - NSC Ranking: 13th
#12: Ryan Newman (162 Points) - NSC Ranking: 7th
#13: Greg Biffle (158 Points) - NSC Ranking: 9th
#14: David Reutimann (156.5 Points) - NSC Ranking: 14th
#15: Jeff Burton (138 Points) - NSC Ranking: 15th