Bleacher Report - Articles by Kurt Mensching

Detroit Tigers Survive—but Barely—The Weekend In Minnesota

Kurt Mensching — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 14:52:36 -0400

Eleven.

That's the Tigers' magic number this morning.

With 13 games left and a three-game lead, 11 is really the only number that matters right now.

Over the weekend, the Tigers lost twice to the Twins, but more importantly won once. That is all we asked of the team, and that was all that was truly required of it to keep Minnesota at arms' length as the season enters the final two weeks.

Detroit lost in all the ways you expect to lose in the HHH Metrodome. Part was timely hitting by Minnesota. Part of it was "dome hits," best defined as some wacky bounce off the turf, or maybe a fly ball that disappears against the dirty ceiling of the place. Part of it was another young Twins' pitcher stepping up to the challenge. And yes, some of it was strange managerial decisions from the Tigers' dugout.

But you know what? Unless Minnesota manages to rally back to a tie in the American League Central Division after 162 games are played, the Tigers never again have to step inside the place I disdainfully lovingly call Hubert's House of Horrors again. And they left it in a fine position for winning the division.

It was ugly. It was blood-pressure raising. But it's over now.

Detroit has a magic number of 11. Minnesota has 10 games on the road starting tonight with a trip to U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago. Things are just fine.

It wasn't a fun weekend by any stretch of the imagination, but you have to feel pretty good about the Tigers' chances of winning their first division title in 22 years right now.

There were two key points to take away from the series for me:

Tigers manager Jim Leyland has to trust Ryan Raburn in left field and play him there as often as he can. I don't think Raburn is a terrific fielder by any means. But he is better than Carlos Guillen, and he's more suited for the playoff push than Donnie Kelly.

For August and for the first half of September, Raburn brought a much-needed bat to a listless Tigers' offense. He had a .957 OPS split for August and has been effective in most starts this month. He has ceded some playing time to a platoon with Guillen, who holds his own in the outfield. (But as followers of Great Lakes shipwrecks can tell you, "holding our own" isn't necessarily the phrase you want to hear. Raburn is better than Guillen in the field.)

Saturday, the issue came to a head when Guillen left for defensive-replacement Kelly. By now, you know the fateful results. Fielding in just his third game in the Metrodome, Kelly lost the ball in the ceiling. It's not really his fault. It happens to players with far more experience. But he entered a close game cold, and disaster followed. Sure, a player who started and played in every game could have made the same mistake. Certainly Twins' players lose the ball in the ceiling, too.

But I was not in favor of the move, nor surprised by the results.

Raburn pinch-hit for the other half of the left field platoon, Guillen, on Sunday. He struck out in his first at-bat, but made up for it with a home run—his 13th—to lead off the eighth inning.

So I can only conclude this: The Tigers do not seem to me to be significantly better at defense nor at scoring runs the way the left field platoon has been used lately. I think worse things could happen than seeing Raburn play daily down the stretch, although it leaves Marcus Thames, Aubrey Huff and Guillen—all who have had similar mediocre results at the plate recently—fighting it out at designated hitter.

The second key thing I took of the weekend is Detroit's pitching seems to be back on track. Rick Porcello and the bullpen did fine on Friday, but the Tigers failed to score. Justin Verlander pitched great for seven-plus innings on Saturday, but the aforementioned Dome hit and Leyland's strange decision to leave him and his 120+ pitch count in against lefty Jason Kubel with bases loaded in the eighth inning cost several runs. Sunday, Nate Robertson came back from his groin injury to make a third good start in four attempts.

A bad pitch by Brandon Lyon that resulted in Michael Cuddyer's three-run home run on Saturday was really the only blemish by the bullpen. Zach Miner's pitching in relief of Robertson on Sunday was huge.

Needless to say, after the meltdown the previous 10 games, the Tigers' pitchers looked much more like the ones we've watched most of the season.

So again, it's back to the batting. Or lack of. But that's nothing new.

The team as a whole really did look this weekend pretty much the same as the Tigers' team that built a seven-game lead earlier this month.

You're always going to be worried after a bad stretch of baseball, but that fog might be lifting right on time.

So remember: the magic number is 11. The Tigers have seven home games remaining (including a key series against the Twins), as well as a pair of road series against the depleted Indians and White Sox. Meanwhile, the Twins are on the road—where they've played 9-games-under-.500—for 10 consecutive games.

At this point of the year, a three-game lead seems pretty big.

Nothing is won yet, but some of that cause for worry has past.

Preview: Tigers-Twins Series Is Indeed Big, but Keep It in Perspective

Kurt Mensching — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:46:13 -0400

The first place Tigers meet the second place Twins at the HHH Metrodome this weekend. It promises to be an exciting and tense three days of baseball for fans of both teams.

But did I fall asleep and miss two weeks of the season or what?

Detroit Free Press headline: "Tigers-Twins series could determine who wins Central"

Is that the football philosophy or what? High school has nine games. Each is really important. College typically has 12. Lose one and you lose your national title hopes. The NFL has 16 games. A bad week is not going to sink your team, but it's still a large chunk of your season.

Baseball is not football.

I'm not going to downplay it and say it doesn't matter what happens this weekend. Because it does. But this series is not for the division title.

In case you didn't notice, there's still two weeks of baseball after this series. In case you didn't notice, the Tigers will leave Minnesota in first place no matter what happens, and host Minnesota for four games the final week of the season.

For the Tigers, this series is "really want to win a game." For the Twins, it very well might be must win. If the Tigers go into Minneapolis and win three games, the division is probably settled. The magic number would be seven with two weeks of baseball remaining. The champagne could probably be ordered and stored at that point.

If the Tigers win two games, the magic number is nine, and there are still four games remaining at Comerica Park, where the Tigers are a very good baseball team (when not playing the Royals in September.)

In either of those scenarios, the Twins are climbing a very steep hill the rest of the year without a safety harness.

I know, Tigers fans seem to have this fear of the world collapsing. I'm not sure why that is. Too many times watching the Lions collapse after Thanksgiving? (Keep in mind, this is in the past when the Lions would tease their fans by starting off 6-3 or 7-2; not tease their fans that they might actually win a game.)

Too many times seeing U of M look like it was on a national championship path only to be tripped up? I don't know.

I know it doesn't have to do with the game of baseball, because the Tigers haven't been good enough at the sport for so long, there are few memorable collapses to hearken back to.

This series is big. Maybe even huge. It has the potential to be ingrained in your mind for years to come.

But when it ends, don't be surprised if an even more important set of games replaces it in the future.

This series could decide the AL Central title. But it probably won't.

Scouting the series

Tonight, 8 p.m.—RHP Rick Porcello (13-8, 4.21 ERA) vs. LHP Brian Duensing (3-1, 3.53)

Duensing has pitched really well since being named a starter, but has only six career starts under his belt. The Tigers should be pretty good against left-handed pitching but have not been lately.

Duensing has been pretty good in his appearances against Detroit, all in relief.

Porcello has allowed too many fly balls the past two games and has to keep the ball down, but he's been pretty successful the past six weeks.

Porcello allowed four runs in four innings in the Metrodome in July, but shut the Twins out in Comerica in May.

Saturday, 4 p.m., FOX (tv schedule)—RHP Justin Verlander (16-8, 3.34 ERA) vs. RHP Carl Pavano (12-11, 4.91 ERA)

For some reason, Pavano shuts down the Tigers frequently. Not just shuts them down. Dominates them. There's really no reason for it.

Will the streak finally end? If not, it's probably good that the Tigers' ace is taking the mound. In the past, he's been able to rebound from a poor showing and take the team on his back.

That will obviously be important for him to do again. He pitched well in his last trip to the Metrodome (2.84 ERA) and generally does well against the Twins (3.49 ERA 2006-2009).

Sunday, 2 p.m.—LHP Nate Robertson (1-2, 5.35 ERA) vs. RHP Scott Baker (13-8, 4.35 ERA)

Well, you know Tigers fans aren't feeling good about this. Robertson left with an injured groin his last start and missed his go in the rotation because of it.

Before that, he had good results his previous two starts since returning from elbow surgery.

Baker is a real good pitcher and doesn't issue a lot of base runners. Strangely, he does better on the road than at home. His ERA vs. the Tigers this season is 9.58, nonetheless. He gave up five runs one start, six the other.

It's questionable whether it tells us much, but Robertson's 2006-2008 ERA vs. the Twins was 3.87, 4.07 in the dome.

Detroit Tigers' 2010 Schedule Discussed

Kurt Mensching — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 23:02:32 -0400

A few days ago, Major League Baseball announced its 2010 schedules.

Here is Detroit's.

For fans of the NFL, a schedule announcement is a pretty big deal. There's 16 games. Each of them seem infinitely valuable.

But a 162-game baseball schedule? Eh, not so much. Your league schedule doesn't change much year-to-year.

So you check to see where you open the season, when your home opener is set, and what team will be in town for it. You look for an easy stretch. You look for a hard stretch. You look for an extra-long stay at home, and you look for the long nights on the road. You check the final week of the schedule to see what teams may try to be spoilers in a pennant race.

Then you check your interleague schedule. Who is the opponent you face inexplicably in May? Which teams and superstars do you get to see in June? And is there any possible road trips to schedule for the two series on the road?

And finally you realize by a month into the season, everything you thought the previous autumn could be wrong.

So, until recently, I don't think baseball fans really paid a lot of attention to the schedule announcement. I don't think it's particularly exciting.

But with the 24/7 sports media market, this is what we do.

So allow me to answer all those questions.

Season opener: Monday, April 5, at Kansas City
Home opener: Friday, April 9, vs. Cleveland
Really long stretch without a day off: 20 days. April 16 at Seattle through May 5 at Minnesota. After a day off, they play 17 consecutive games. There are two additional stretches of 17 games without an off day, one in July and one in August.
Difficult stretch of schedule: Late July through mid-August sees the Tigers at Rays, at Red Sox, vs White Sox, vs. Angels, vs. Rays, at White Sox, then finally at Yankees. Just based on personal projections, all of those teams look to be pretty tough in 2010, and the Tigers spend about three weeks in a row without a break. Bonus stretch: In May, the Tigers host the Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox, before heading west to face the A's, Dodgers, and Mariners.
Easiest stretch of schedule: Interleague in June.
Longest home stay: Nine games in both May and June.
Red-eye swings: Trips to Seattle and Anaheim in April, and visits to Oakland, Seattle, and Chavez Ravine (Dodgers) in May. May 26 is the final west coast game, May 25 the final 10 p.m. start.
Strange quirk: Only two games at Oakland (May 19-20). Only six games vs. the A's, yet 10 against Angels, nine against Rangers, and eight against Mariners. It tends to be nine or 10 for the season series vs. AL West teams.
Longest road trip: 11 games in April traveling to the AL West,
The final two weeks of the season: Host Royals then Twins, visit Indians and Orioles. So, actually, it looks tolerable. Though you'd rather close the year at home.
Interleague road trips: LA Dodgers in May, NY Mets and Atlanta Braves in June
Interleague visitors: Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks

So there you have it. The schedule seems to have more challenges than easy periods, but you never know until you see what the teams look like when they take the field for the series.

All of that we can worry about in 2010.

Jarrod Washburn Falls to Injury: Who Is Left to Start for Detroit?

Kurt Mensching — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:31:34 -0400

Or: Will the last pitcher in Detroit please turn off the light?

It quickly became apparent Tuesday: Jarrod Washburn's season in Detroit may just be over. The Tigers have quickly fallen from too many starting pitchers to just three.

In late August, right-handed starter Armando Galarraga had to rest his elbow. He has allowed nine runs in 4-2/3 innings since returning to the team. Next!

On Sep. 11, lefty-starter Nate Robertson left the game with, direct quote here, "pelvic inflammation." He also left the rotation. He was slated to rejoin the bullpen when he was able to pitch again. Next!

Yesterday, after already skipping a start due to soreness in his knee, trade deadline acquisition Washburn threw batting practice for an inning before being removed by Tigers trainer Kevin Rand.

For sure, he will miss his next start, the Tigers say. In all likelihood, he'll miss more than just that. Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi reports Washburn may be done for the season.

Detroit News reporter Amelia Rayno added, via Twitter:

Washburn looked...close to the point of tears tonight as he told media, "I don't know why they would want me to pitch, I've been terrible."

Well then. What a revoltin' development this is.

Not that Washburn has been good since coming to Detroit. A rough calculation put his ERA at 7.50 since joining the Tigers rotation.

As is the case in Minnesota, where slugger Justin Morneau was recently lost for the season, he has been so bad the past six weeks the Tigers might actually improve by having the luxury of putting someone else into the game.

On the other hand, losing Washburn and Morneau means the teams cannot continue to believe a key player is going to turn his season around before it is too late. Nope. That dream playoff rotation the Tigers had is gone. Now they have to duct tape a rotation together for the next three weeks just to make the playoffs.

Thank goodness the rosters expanded on Sep. 1, because the Tigers have had to go to their bullpen more and more lately just to make it through the game without a position player taking the mound.

Zach Miner pitched in relief of Washburn for two innings, but the long reliever was then pulled from the game. Why? Not because his services would be needed as a starter in five days. Manager Jim Leyland likely feared he'd need to use Miner again soon. As Royals-still-a-pain--Jarrod-Washburn-leaves-hurting" target="_blank">Leyland said, Miner is "too valuable in the bullpen."

Leyland also said:

"We're dealing with ifs and buts instead of candy and nuts."

I think he's losing his mind.

So, what now?

The Tigers' rotation consists of Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, a tiring 20-year-old Rick Porcello, and September call-up Eddie Bonine.

Jeremy Bonderman is not an option. He never stretched out past two innings since his rehab assignment began. Robertson might be an option when he's healthy again, and word is he's feeling a bit better.

Potentially, minor league starter Alfredo Figaro will fill the final rotation spot in the meantime. The Tigers recalled him when the minor league season ended, though they did not add him to their active roster at the time. Today, they did.

Figaro pitched two games for Detroit. In his debut, the cousin of closer Fernando Rodney shut down the Brewers quite well. In his second game, he looked like a rookie. And then he was shut down with a wrist injury.

Figaro appeared in 12 innings for Double-A Erie in relief, after returning from his injury in August. He struck out 10, walked six, and allowed one earned run.

Ten days ago, the Tigers led the division by seven games, and September baseball appeared as if it might actually be an enjoyable experience.

So much for that.

No wonder Leyland appears to be losing his mind.

Talk of Trading Curtis Granderson Must End

Kurt Mensching — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 14:26:17 -0400

It's like a splinter you just can't get out.

For whatever reason, the Detroit News' beat writer Lynn Henning just keeps picking at Curtis Granderson relentlessly. Henning just cannot get over the fact the fan favorite and All-Star center fielder is allowed to have an off-year. And by off-year I mean, he's only the second-most productive position player on the team.

Earlier this year, Henning wrote Granderson needs to concentrate more on baseball and less on being Mr. All-America. Granderson writes a blog and is active in charity work during the regular season. It looked like a low blow, but days later Tigers manager Jim Leyland actually said many of the same thoughts as Henning, just framed in a better tone.

Had that been the end of the discussion, fine. I don't think the Tigers or the fans would like to see Granderson be anyone but the man he is. And I think if Granderson felt like it was hurting his baseball career, he would tone things back a bit. I don't know, but that's just the kind of person Granderson seems to be.

But that wasn't the end of it. Henning has continued to track Granderson's poor hitting against left-handers. He has dropped Granderson's name with a few hints that the Tigers might want to look elsewhere for a starting center fielder next year.

And today, he published a full discussion with this thought in mind: The Tigers should trade Granderson before it's too late and he erases any value he has.

Before I get to that, let's look at the argument against Granderson.

In 2007, just his second full season starting at center field, he had 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 home runs and 20 steals. He joined rare air in doing so, becoming just the third major leaguer to do so. His on-base-plus-slugging was .913. He looked like a star in the making. But he took a step back in both the field and at the plate, though he was still productive. In 2009, his home runs are up but his extra-base power is down overall.

On top of that, Granderson's ability to hit lefties has fallen off the table. His OPS against left-handed pitching is .475, while his OPS against righties remains .910. It's gotten to the point where Leyland either buries Granderson in the lineup against lefties or sits him altogether.

Historically, the splits are interesting. He hit for a .739 OPS against lefties in 2008, yet .494 in 2007, which was a substantial drop from the .672 in 2006.

You see where I'm going with this: Granderson has often struggled to see southpaw pitching, and from season-to-season his results vary wildly. Yet when you look at the best season of his career, he did not hit substantially better against lefties than he is hitting this season. In 2007, he hit much better against righties than he has been hitting this year.

We also have evidence 2007 may be a career year for Granderson. His batting average on balls in play was a highly unsustainable .362. His highest full season otherwise is .337. His lowest, .317. (Until this season, where bad luck shows its face with a .276 rate.) His is actually hitting a higher percentage of line drives this year than at any point since his first full season. That should translate positively, not negatively.

Well, I've probably gone a bit overboard in detailing all the splits, but the point is, there really is no baseline comparison for one of Granderson's seasons to the next. He's just all over the place. While Henning may take Granderson's statistics as a sign he is dropping off as a player, I just look at them and think, "Well, that's Granderson for you. Always plugging one hole in his game yet opening up another."

This season, the hole he plugged was his fielding, by the way. Last year was a huge disappointment there, but this season has been a rebound.

But OK. Let's get back to the trade scenario. The reason for trading Granderson is that he is owed $25M through the year 2013, which a club option to pay an additional $11M in 2013 to retain Granderson's services (Cot's Baseball Contracts). That's a lot of money to be paying a less-than-stellar player.

But I see (at least) three errors in judgment here. The first, I don't see a real solid replacement player. I suppose you could look to trade for one or look to the free agent market, but Granderson's contract is actually a pretty fair one. I don't see any players in the minor league system who could step in and fill Granderson's shoes right away either.

Second, the fans love the guy, and rightfully so. I can't put numbers out there to back myself up, but the fan base would be quite unhappy if the Tigers dealt Granderson.

Finally, we have a measurement of players' values: wins above replacement. Sabermetrics folks have managed to peg approximate financial values to players based on the going rate of a win above replacement on the open market.

Granderson's WAR for 2006 was 3.9. His WAR for 2007 was 7.4, and for 2008 was 3.8.

This season, his WAR is 3.2, which is second among Tigers position players and third for American League center fielders.

His value to the team is $14.4M. His salary is $3.5M. In other words, he is an incredible value and he has been a remarkably consistent and valuable player in each of his seasons in Detroit.

Granderson's season is undoubtedly a disappointment to him and to Tigers fans. But even in being disappointing, he's having a great year.

To trade that away would be ludicrous.

Eddie Bonine Named The Tigers' Fifth Starter As Week Throws Them a Curve

Kurt Mensching — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 20:31:15 -0400

Last Monday, the Tigers enjoyed a well-deserved Labor Day like many of us: They enjoyed a day off.

They had just swept the defending American League champion Tampa Bay Rays for their sixth consecutive victory. The bullpen had performed terrific, while the Tigers batters found timely hitting and pushed the runners home whenever they were in scoring position.

Detroit led the AL Central Division by seven games, and the big question for the manager was how to squeeze six starting pitchers into five rotation spots.

Where's the do-over button when you need it?

Since that time, the Tigers lost five in a row, including a sweep at the hands of the lowly Kansas City Royals. Starting pitcher Nate Robertson left a game with a groin injury. Fellow starting pitcher Armando Galarraga pitched woefully after coming back from resting his elbow for two weeks. The bullpen seems to have collapsed in a heap.

And yet, neither the Chicago White Sox nor the Minnesota Twins really took advantage of Detroit's slide.

Well, some things never change.

The problem with the rotation seems to be the biggest development of the week.

Sunday, Tigers manager Jim Leyland named Eddie Bonine as the team's final starter. Leyland said Bonine will keep that job for the rest of the season. (Leyland says a lot of things, so forgive me if I take a wait-and-see approach.)

That isn't necessarily bad on its own, although it doesn't appear to be a good thing. He has just one start under his belt in the majors this season, a game which his team won, 4-3, against the White Sox on July 24. His 6.11 ERA isn't particularly thrilling, but with such limited innings it doesn't really say much. Then again his 4.41 ERA and strikeout rate of one per every two innings doesn't exactly thrill.

The reason for concern is that the Tigers' rotation now consists of ace Justin Verlander and his fellow front-line starter, Edwin Jackson, along with rookie Rick Porcello. When your third-best starter is a rookie and your team is in a playoff race, you should probably worry a bit.

Porcello ended up in that position due to the nagging injury of Jarrod Washburn. When the Tigers traded for the former Mariners' starter on July 31, they appeared to put themselves in the position of having the best top-three rotation in the American League.

Since then, Washburn has struggled mightily, both due to bad luck and poor pitching. Meanwhile, the Tigers have had him skip a start due to the knee soreness that has apparently been bothering him for much of the season.

Now the Tigers will struggle to find time to rest a rookie who, should they hold on to the Central Division, may have an increasingly important role in the postseason.

Dominoes. Things just keep toppling.

Yet as quick as all looks lost, all could change when the Tigers look for revenge this week by hosting the Royals, before heading to Minnesota to face the Twins.

Just as soon as you think you know what's going to happen, the game could have other things in store.

Leyland, Washington, Girardi Atop AL Manager Of The Year Race

Kurt Mensching — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:12:13 -0400

Notable nattering nabob of the Detroit Free Press Drew Sharp recently took a break from his negativity to proclaim Tigers manager Jim Leyland as the easy pick for American League Manager of the Year.

When Sharp writes, I instinctively believe exactly the opposite.

But maybe he's on to something.

Leyland won the award in 2006. In just his first year in Detroit, he guided the Tigers from perennial bottom-feeder to their first playoff appearance since 1987.

Almost as soon as he was named manager, Leyland was doing the kinds of things that don't show up in box scores: acting like the leader, inspiring the team to play to its potential, lambasting the team for underachieving and managing expectations as it rose to prominence. His decision to lean on rookie pitchers Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya also helped the turnaround.

There is no real formula for guessing the manager of the year.

Generally it goes to a manager whose team made the playoffs, but not always. It doesn't hurt to win 95 or more games. It sure helps if he manages a turnaround team, or has a feel-good story to be pedaled.

And, at least in the case of the AL, it helps to have not won the award in a decade or more.

Leyland has check marks near a few of these qualifications.

The Tigers should make the playoffs. They won't win 95 games. After being swept by Kansas City, they likely won't even win 90. But they should be one of the final eight teams playing.
The Tigers were tabbed to finish fourth- or last-place in the AL Central by many experts. So the team is out-performing expectations.
The storyline of the Tigers winning for the downtrodden city of Detroit and state of Michigan seems popular.

You can point to some tactical decisions made along the way for evidence he knows what he's doing in a game (then again, many Tigers fans would be more than happy to provide a pile of evidence for the counter-argument).

Recently, the Tigers scored the tying or go-ahead runs in the eighth inning or later during every game of a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. Leyland's strategic button-pushing paid off in the middle game of the series when he used 23 members of his roster, dropping in pinch runners, pinch hitters and defensive replacements as the situation called for to piece together a victory.

Sometimes, you think the man is crazy. And yet, sometimes he simply looks like a mad genius.

However, chief competition for the award would seem to come from the Rangers' Ron Washington, and the Yankees' Joe Girardi. Both might make better choices than Leyland.

Washington's Texas Rangers are in a nip-and-tuck wild card race with the Red Sox. Last season, they won 79 games. This season, they've won 79 games with several weeks left to play. The Rangers have not been in the postseason since 1999.

Should Texas earn that playoff spot, it would seem hard to imagine anyone but the former Oakland Athletics' coach coming away with the hardware at the end of the season.

Finally, a good argument could be made for Girardi, as well. His team will surely win more than 100 games this season. The last AL teams to do that were the Angels (100 wins in 2008) and the Yankees (101 in 2004). In fact, it's possible these Yankees will have the most wins by an AL team since Seattle's 116 in 2001. A 13-8 record down the stretch would give them that honor.

Given that, and the fact they were actually playing sub-.500 as late as May, Girardi is a solid pick as well.

In any case, it's hard to quantify. Maybe voters, fearing the dismal AL Central could bring home more awards than it deserves if Minnesota's Joe Mauer and Kansas City's Zack Greinke win MVP and Cy Young, would prefer to mix things up a bit.

This year's decision is certainly a tough one.

Bat to the Future: Detroit's Past Failings Won't Hold Them Back in 2009

Kurt Mensching — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:53:51 -0400

This is not 2006.

Nor is it 1968 1987, 2003, or 1492.

This much probably seems obvious to you, right?

And yet a day doesn't go by when someone, somewhere does not reach to the past to make a comparison to the present.

While in life it's a pretty good idea to learn history so you don't repeat it, analogies of that nature just don't work as well in sports.

Despite the fact that Bill Buckner let the ball go between his legs in 1986, the Red Sox have won two World Series titles since.

Everyone knows the Tigers had not played above .500 baseball in any month of August since the year 2000. And yet, in 2009 they were able to go 16-13.

So right now, I'm getting sick of hearing about the year 2006—the year the Tigers made a surprising run to the playoffs after 22 years on the outside looking in.

First it was used as a positive. “Hey, this season is starting to feel like 2006!”

Why exactly, I don't know. Maybe it was the pitching, with Justin Verlander starting games and Joel Zumaya pitching in the late innings.

It certainly wasn't because the run-scoring potential was the same. Until this August, there were not a lot of late-innings comebacks like we remember from the 2006 “Cardiac Cats.”

Nor was it because the 2009 Tigers had a lot of the same roster. Just four of that season's starting position players—and five position players overall—will likely play in 82 or more games this season. Only one member of the Tigers' 2009 rotation also started in 2006. Only two members of the Tigers' current bullpen played important roles three seasons ago.

The best reason I can come up with for the comparison is that in 2006 the Tigers were in first place in the American League Central Division all summer. In 2009, they were as well.

Both clubs were fun, of course. But that's because winning baseball is more fun than losing baseball, isn't it?

Fast forward a bit.

Was 2006 a cautionary tale?

Cries of the Tigers suffering a second-half swoon were bellowed by many this summer. After all, in 2006 they blew a 10-game lead in the division and had to settle for the wild card. In 2007, they led the American League at the All-Star Break only to miss the playoffs entirely.

Surely, 2009 would be no different, right?

Well, I'm not sure entirely. I don't remember any reason being given, other than the fact that during manager Jim Leyland's time in Detroit it also happened.

Leyland frustrated fans all season by resting players enough so they'd be fresh for all 162 games of the year, not just the first 120. Yet that is ignored and some think his players tire out with too much of the season remaining.

And forget about 2001 to 2005. The Tigers were awful, so expecting a winning second half during those years is just silly.

So what's the argument? That the Tigers have slid in the past, so expect it this year?

As I wrote earlier, the Tigers actually came out of this August with a winning record. They opened September by going 6-0. (And, to focus momentarily on another trend, the Tigers won three games in the ballpark of the defending AL champs. Here I thought they couldn't win on the road!)

So, here we go again. The Tigers lead the division by six-and-a-half games—that's more than at any point in September in 2006. Rather than looking at this as if it's a good thing, worries come out again.

“Remember 2006? They lost four straight at Comerica Park to the Royals and lost the division on the last day!”

Well, let's see what might be different:

The Tigers' roster: Having a healthy Placido Polanco, for instance, rather than one missing in August and September with a bum shoulder.
The Twins' roster: Do you see Johan Santana standing on the mound or Torii Hunter in center field?
The rosters of the Royals, White Sox, and Indians: The division foes face each other a lot still.
The circumstances: There will be no wild card clinched with a week to go in the season. There will be no letting off the gas early.

Don't mistake me. I am not saying the Tigers have the division wrapped up. A lot can happen in the remaining 25 games.

But what went on in past years really has little to do with what will go on the rest of this season.

Don't fall into the trap of thinking it will.

"Gum Time" Nate Robertson Is Back in the Motor City

Kurt Mensching — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 14:20:56 -0400

Few Tigers fans will ever forget the joy of Gum Time.

Nate Robertson started what would become a season-long joy in 2006 by stuffing his mouth a bit too full, hoping to start a late-innings rally.

It worked that game, and throughout the season as that edition of the Tigers earned the nickname “Cardiac Cats” for its ability to come back to win games with only a handful of outs remaining.

Like all good things, Gum Time eventually came to an end, and for awhile it appeared as if the career of the man who started the fun was going to disappear from fans' minds, too.

Bad luck in 2008, coupled with bad pitching in early 2009, seemed to spell the end for Gum Time himself.

With so much money owed this season and next, however, the Tigers tried to let him pitch through it all before finally discovering the source of his troubles in June: The growth of what was termed “masses” in his pitching elbow may have been what rendered his pitches flat, slow, and hittable.

Though fans were afraid he would return to the Tigers amid a pennant race and torpedo the club's chances this season, the organization gave him the opportunity to play his way back onto the team through a rehab assignment with Triple-A Toledo.

Wise choice.

Maybe no one had gum in their mouths to help Robertson rally back, but he proved he didn't need it.

Now, it appears as if the left-handed starter the team felt it needed to acquire for the stretch run was a member of the organization all the while.

The addition that grabbed the headlines was Jarrod Washburn. He came to Detroit at the July 31 regular trade deadline from the Mariners with a lot of hype and a little earned run average, stumbled and is scheduled to miss a start with a barking knee. On the other hand, Robertson had been terrific in both of his starting appearances.

Robertson was able to go four innings and 70 pitches while allowing two runs to the potent Tampa Bay lineup on Aug. 29. By forcing 10 ground balls and striking out four, he looked like a player who could contribute yet. He may have taken a loss in the ledger, but it was an improvement over the ailing Armando Galarraga, as well as Washburn.

In his second start on Thursday, Robertson pitched six scoreless innings. He allowed a baserunner to get as far as third just twice. Four timely strikeouts and a pair of double plays helped him escape.

Though manager Jim Leyland refused to speculate if Robertson will start again, the answer appears clear: it would be crazy not to ride the 32-year-old left-hander while he's hot.

Let's be clear here. He's not one of the top three pitchers in the staff. He'll never be confused with being one of the league's top pitchers.

But Robertson is exactly the kind of guy contending teams need. He's a back end of the rotation competitor who before this season had always been respected for his bulldog attitude by fans of the Tigers.

When you hand him the ball, you know you're going to get a tough fight.

* * *

On Sunday, the Tigers trailed the Rays 3-1 in the eighth inning, despite a well-pitched game by Detroit's ace, Justin Verlander.

Robertson knew what he had to do.

A wad of gum—sugar free this time, after his dentist found a cavity following the 2006 season—found its way into his mouth.

Clete Thomas doubled to open the inning, and with two outs Curtis Granderson walked.

Never one to be confused with a power hitter, Placido Polanco lofted an offering just inches over the glove of Rays left fielder Carl Crawford and into the bullpen.

Detroit held on to win, 4-3.

It's good to have Gum Time back in Detroit.

In more ways than one.

Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins Set for Battle to the Finish

Kurt Mensching — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 00:48:36 -0400

All manager Jim Leyland talks about during the season is playing meaningful games in September.

I think we can check that one off the list.

But now the question arises: Will the Tigers be playing meaningful games in October?

On the surface, they lead a three-team race for the Central Division title. If you search a little deeper though, I think most would agree this is a battle between the Tigers and Twins. The White Sox have essentially taken their name out of the running by losing seven of their last eight games.

ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports they are offering up their veterans for one-month rentals among a select list of other teams, so, while they could still play their way back into it, management seems content to punt the season away.

The Twins, meanwhile, fell as many as six-and-a-half games behind in the division earlier in the month only to rally to three and one-half back. They made August acquisitions of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay to help shore up their bullpen, after adding Orlando Cabrera at the July 31 deadline.

While they are still longshots—Baseball Prospectus' and Coolstandings.com simulations both had them at 19.9 percent chances to win the division entering play Monday, and at CoolStandings that number was up to 28.4 percent after Monday's games—there is time enough for them to make up the distance, and the teams meet seven more times this season.

So to help us prepare for the final month or so of the regular season, I thought I'd look closer at the Twins' and Tigers' schedules and see what might happen.

Schedule glance

The Twins play teams with a combined winning percentage of .460, per CoolStandings, while the Tigers face an ever-so-slightly harder .465 fixture. So not a great difference.

The Twins play 14 of their remaining 31 games at home, while 17 of the Tigers' remaining 32 games are at home.

The toughest team the Twins face? Detroit for seven games. It's actually the only team they face with a winning percentage above .500, three games in Minnesota and four in Detroit. They also have home-and-home series against the White Sox (Minnesota won the opener Monday at the Metrodome), Indians and Royals. They travel to Toronto for four games, and host Oakland for three.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have to travel to Florida still to face the Rays for three games. The Twins are the only other team above .500 on their schedule. They, too, have home-and-home series against the Indians, White Sox and Royals remaining, while their four-game set with the Blue Jays will be played at Comerica Park.

Common opponent breakdowns

The Tigers have won 23 of 36 games against the White Sox, Royals and Indians, while the Twins have taken 20 of 36.

Against the White Sox: Detroit's results show it is capable of winning series at home or on the road. The Twins beat the Sox at home, while the Sox beat the Twins at home. (Of course, the teams had not met in the second half before Monday, so caution should be taken in reading into that.)

Against the Royals: I think it's safe to say both the Tigers and Twins are not bothered by the locale when facing Kansas City and should do fine the rest of the season.

Against the Indians: Surprisingly, the Indians have taken four of the last six games against the Twins, winning series in both the Metrodome and at Jacobs Field. The Tigers have taken four of six at both Jacobs Field and Comerica Park, and should probably keep winning about that rate.

Against the Blue Jays: Both teams faced them in April. Toronto had a very different team then. I'm not sure if that tells us much of anything.

How the schedules play out

Best case, I see the Twins going 18-13 (.581). I know they played under .500 for most of the year, but based on their opponents and their schedule, I do think it's possible for them to play near .600 ball and give Detroit quite the challenge. Worst case? I still see 16-16. They've stumbled in the past, but I feel like .500 is their floor with this schedule.

So that puts them between 81-81 and 84-78.Most likely they'll win 83 I'd guess.

But, I have to say, I don't really think the Tigers have a late-season choke in them. So, unless something bad happens, I think it's easy to imagine them being able to go 16-16 the rest of the way.

So the worst case puts Detroit a game better than the Twins' best case record. The Tigers, too, could win as many as 18 or 19 games if things go well, making the last week of the year is a lot easier on the fans' psyches.

Most likely? I'm going to put the Tigers at 17-15 from here on. That gives them an 86-76 record.

Conclusion

Like everyone has thought all along, this is going to come down to the final week. The White Sox will want to play spoilers with both the Twins and Tigers, and they'll get two series against the Tigers in the final 10 days. That does scare me a bit, but Detroit has handled the challenge against them so far this season. And if they end up trading away some of their better players still, that might help.

I feel like the Tigers might have a chance to clinch the division with Minnesota in town at the end of September, depending how the exact records shake out when they enter the series.

In any case, yes, this does project to be a nail-biter of a month. The Tigers and their fans have reason to feel some confidence, but there's definitely reason for worry as well.

Kurt Mensching writes for MackAvenueTigers.com

September Call-Ups: Who's Likely Headed To Detroit?

Kurt Mensching — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 23:00:30 -0400

The Sept. 1 roster expansion is typically an exciting time for fans of teams going no where fast. At last, a couple of those prospects they've been hearing about might finally get the call to the major leagues for a preview of the future. For fans of teams in the thick of a pennant race, it's not quite as exciting, though the proper moves could prove to be the difference as things come down to the wire.

On top of that, your team is set. It's winning. It's familiar with most opponents. And suddenly there's new faces in Cleveland, or Kansas City, or elsewhere. You're trying to win a flag, and you're facing a guy with no major league scouting report.

For that reason, Tigers manager Jim Leyland has often said in Detroit he's not a huge fan of roster expansion. So don't expect many moves. It's not Detroit's way. Leyland doesn't like a lot of extra bodies hanging around that he has no use for. He doesn't take people along for the ride.

But there is certainly room for Leyland's team to shore up a few things. I think they'll be looking to grab a few familiar faces more than anything at all.

Pitchers

Detroit amazed by successfully going about half the month of August with 11 pitchers. (That's a real testament to the starting pitching, as well as to the bullpen's role players doing their jobs.) But there's no reason they'll feel limited to that now.

I don't feel like Detroit is going to tap Casey Fien for a September assignment after the rather unimpressive results earlier, but he has been pretty decent in Toledo lately (16 strikeouts, three walks in 11 2/3 innings), so the coaching staff may feel like he deserves another look. I don't feel like they'll go for a third lefty specialist in Clay Rapada either. I don't rule either pitcher out mind you, but I'm not certain they're must-haves when you look at the Tigers' bullpen.

Jeremy Bonderman: I'm about 100 percent on this one. He's spent most of August working on his rehab assignment in Toledo, but he can be recalled and should be. He's got 13 strikeouts and two walks in the past 13 innings, but he's allowed 19 hits. To be fair, six hits came in one early August game. Given his recent appearances, I think he'll be more of a one-inning reliever.
Eddie Bonine: I'm probably 75 percent on this one. While Toledo really could use him in the rotation, he's a guy Detroit really would have liked to keep around if it could have. He's a guy you can trust. The problem for Bonine is that Zach Miner and Armando Galarraga are also right-handed long relief. Galarraga may actually return to the rotation, but I'd rather see someone piggyback with Nate Robertson as a starter. Still I think Bonine is going to be back.
Freddy Dolsi: Unremarkable, but effective. That pretty much sums up Dolsi. He can also give the Tigers either long or middle relief, and he had a great experience in his most recent time in the big leagues. All those work in his favor. I'd lay chances at better than 50 percent on him.

Yup. That's it. Two, possibly three pitchers. But they should all be able to contribute without making the skipper sneak away for a cigarette in the middle of an at-bat. When you're in a pennant race, you really need that confidence.

Positional players

You'd think with the problems Detroit has scoring runs, there'd be reason for excitement down on the farm. Unfortunately, they are rather lacking for anyone useful down there, because any players capable of helping the Tigers are already in the big leagues. The prospects they do have on the 40-man roster seem to fall behind positions that are already strong. (Meanwhile, as much as the Tigers need a backup for aching third baseman Brandon Inge, there's no real help in the minors).

So I'll throw out the three most likely names, though I have my reservations about all three. Detroit just seems a lot more likely to tap pitching than positional guys.

Wilkin Ramirez: I'm not sure how likely this is. He is not a real whiz with the glove. He's got some wheels and power, though, and would be a good candidate for giving Curtis Granderson a day off (so long as he is coupled with Clete Thomas in center field). Ian of BlessYouBoys.com pointed out Ramirez played center field for the first time this season on Thursday. Working against him is his recent struggles. Hitting .189 with .229 on-base percentage and .387 slugging average is not exactly a guy knocking the door down. Given the Tigers have a glut of outfielders already, he's probably a long shot, but definitely a possibility. I'll call it 50/50.
Scott Sizemore: He's not on the 40 man roster. And the Tigers currently have all 40 slots filled. However, Jeff Larish is on the roster, and he's been shut down for the year after having wrist surgery. Sizemore, while viewed as the Tigers' second baseman of the future, also battles the fact that without any injuries, the Tigers have both a pretty good starter and pretty good backup, so there's really no spot for Sizemore. But his bat has sparkled (.307 avg/.382 obp/.475 slg) and Detroit could use a push in that department. Lemme call him 33 percent.
Dusty Ryan: Of the three, I find Ryan most likely because you'd always like to have an insurance catcher hanging around the dugout. He's proven capable behind the dish, though not as good with a bat as he had been last September. Of course, the organizational depth has taken a hit with the promotion of Alex Avila earlier in the month, and the injury to Max St. Pierre of Double-A Erie shelving him. But that should not be a real concern for the Tigers.

Kurt Mensching writes for MackAvenueTigers.com

Is It Time To Include Miguel Cabrera In MVP Discussion?

Kurt Mensching — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 15:20:38 -0400

Maybe it's just one or two average months that keep Miguel Cabrera out of the discussion for the American League Most Valuable Player award each year.

In 2008, the Detroit Tigers' first baseman hit 18 of his 37 home runs during the months of August and September. His on base percentage plus slugging (OPS) was fully .113 points higher after the All-Star Break (.951) than before it (.838). He finished on top the AL board for home runs and a close second-place in RBI, while being one of the few reasons to be excited about the Tigers as they finished a disappointing season.

After a hot April this year, the doldrums of the early season struck again. But with a blistering-hot week at the plate, Cabrera again seems to be putting it all together in the second half. He has seven home runs and 25 RBI this month, to go with a 1.158 OPS.

He's 10 off the pace in home runs, and 13 behind the leader in RBI, but Cabrera is steadily making his way up the ladder in traditional stats, while sitting behind only Twins catcher Joe Mauer in OPS (1.065 vs. .988 for Cabrera).

All the while, Cabrera continues to show great growth with the glove, and currently has the second highest Ultimate Zone Rating by a first baseman, as listed at Fangraphs.com.

The key batter for a first-place club, who also has a pretty good glove to go with it? That seems to be the very definition of an MVP, doesn't it?

Yet, it seems like the ship has sailed for the MVP discussion. The debate appears to be framed around Mauer—certainly the leader of a theoretical Most Outstanding Player discussion—and Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira—a very productive player on what appears to be the best team in the AL.

Thus, the two players in the main debate seem already to be decided. Do you give the award to the slick-hitting catcher on a team that likely won't make the playoffs. (This is an open-and-shut case if the Twins do make the playoffs.) Or do you give it to the best hitter on the best team?

So to me, it seems like Cabrera is at best, a third-place vote. But he shouldn't be, the debate should be framed: Mauer vs. Cabrera.

I can think of only two reasons why it is not.

The first is more conspiratorial in nature. Teixeira is a Yankee. You must include an AL East player in any discussion of MVP. But I don't want to get into conspiracies.

The second reason seems to be RBIs, a flawed traditional stat if ever there was one.

It's easy to criticize Cabrera for a lack of RBI, but he is hitting .331 with a .934 OPS with runners in scoring position, so that may be a lack of opportunities due to a weak Tigers' lineup as much as anything. (By the way, those numbers put Cabrera behind Mauer with .371 and 1.126, and ahead of Teixeira with .271 and .875)

Otherwise, neither Cabrera nor Teixeira, who has four more home runs, have been incredibly consistent over the course of the season. And Teixeira has a lot more help in carrying the Yankees' offense.

To me, the vote is simple.

If you believe the MVP should go to the best player in the league, it's Mauer, and not even close. If I was voting today, that's who I'd choose.

But if you believe it should go to the player who meant the most to his team, and the Tigers hold on to make the playoffs, Cabrera simply must be ahead of that discussion.

With Magglio Ordonez Earning His Playing Time, The Option Issue Is Dead

Kurt Mensching — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 13:02:43 -0400

The hand-wringing has begun all over again.

Unless he has an injury in the next few weeks, Magglio Ordonez will collect $18 million from the Detroit Tigers in 2010.

If that happens, nine players will account for $100 million in payroll, and neither Justin Verlander nor Edwin Jackson is among them.

This obviously was a concern for many, as it should have been.

Fretting about Ordonez's contract situation peaked in June, when there was still time to do something about it.

However, it should not be a concern now. Ordonez has hit his way out of his slump, and made the issue a moot point.

The time to release Ordonez was in early-to-mid July. His average had fallen—with his on-base-percentage-plus-slugging at a paltry .663 at one point in July—and his extra-base power had all but fallen off the table. He was best-suited as a platoon with Clete Thomas in right field, so that's where manager Jim Leyland put him.

He wasn't particularly impressive in that role, either.

So at that point, with Ordonez essentially a worthless cog for the Tigers, when looked at from a baseball perspective, he should have been issued his release. Detroit would have owed him $3 million next year, but no harm, no foul. A pretty good argument from the Tigers could be made that the move was made for baseball reasons.

Taken from a ticket-sales perspective, Ordonez remains one of the most popular players on the team, and to release him could have had greater repercussions. You never hear that point made.

But a funny thing happened with Ordonez in a platoon: He started to get his swing back.

When outfielder Josh Anderson was designated for assignment—and later traded to the Royals—on July 25, the platoon ended. Ordonez saw his playing time increase greatly, and he started to see right-handed pitching again.

Recipe for disaster, right? He hurts the team, and he writes himself a nice paycheck for 2010.

It turns out, no.

Only July 26, Ordonez had his second multi-hit game of the month. Since then, he has had six in 18 games.

His average in the month of August is .373, with an OPS of 1.026, comprised of a .418 OBP and .608 SLG. Among regular batters, he leads the team in all three categories this month. (Only rookie Alex Avila is ahead Ordonez, but with half the at-bats.)

And, oh yes, the Tigers are holding a narrow 2-1/2 game lead over the Chicago White Sox in what has become a knock-down, drag-out fight.

You don't owe Ordonez playing time. His contract didn't require playing time for a corner outfielder whose game more resembled a light-hitting shortstop.

But remind me again why Leyland is expected to keep Ordonez's bat out of the lineup when he's hitting like he is today.

Something about 2010?

“We'll get 'em next year!” is the solace of fans whose teams are losing. The Tigers are winning.

Given the mess next season is already shaping up to become, the present looks a whole lot better than the future. I'll take the division lead with just a quarter of the season left to be played, thank you.

So will the Tigers, even if costs them an extra $15 million.

But that's OK, they'll start earning some of it back in added playoff revenue, if Ordonez helps them hold onto that division lead for the next six weeks.

Like it or not, Ordonez is going to be around next year.

It's time for the hand-wringing to end.

Tigers Sign Top Picks, But Should You Care?

Kurt Mensching — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 00:52:51 -0400

The Detroit Tigers signed the three players everyone had their eyes on after the June First-Year Player draft, but should you really care?

High school pitcher Jacob Turner, the Tigers' ninth pick overall, reportedly signed for a $4.7 million bonus, which was much less than the initial pea-cocking of his adviser Scott Boras.

High school shortstop Daniel Fields was lured to bypass his scholarship to the University of Michigan by an undisclosed seven-figure deal after being taken in the sixth-round.

Second-rounder and Oklahoma State pitcher Andrew Oliver also signed for a low seven-figure deal.

I'm glad the Tigers managed to sign the players they were most excited about.

However, I just don't get that excited over the drafting and signing of amateur players.

You shouldn't either.

Baseball is not like the other sports. Even in football and basketball, early draft picks typically begin their careers at the highest level of the sport. Not all of them turn out, but almost all of them break training camp with the team. They might later flame out spectacularly, but they made it there.

In baseball, there's no guarantee your first-round pick will spend a day in the majors. More and more, teams are doing a better job at evaluating talent and finding guys who will actually make it to the big leagues, but there remains a lot that can go wrong between draft day and a fruitful career.

Especially with pitchers.

Drafting pitchers is like trying to find a Kentucky Derby horse. You look for pedigrees like you look for young talent. You buy up as much as you can afford.

Some never pan out. Some break down. Some succeed.

And then a no-name gelding from New Mexico, who sold for pennies on the dollar, shows them all up on the big stage.

It's hard enough to project a Double-A prospect to the majors, let alone guys who haven't even spent a day as a professional.

There's always exceptions to the rule. In Detroit, we know the exception as Rick Porcello. He was the guy who spent one season in the minor leagues after being drafted as a high school pitcher.

But for most players, there's a long, long road, and there are no guarantees.

In recent years, due to the added publicity for the draft, great media exposure outside the mainstream—which did not spend a lot of time on the baseball draft—and the hype of Boras and other agents, we have begun to blow baseball's draft and signing period out of proportion. I hope it takes a step back soon.

I doubt it will.

So what I'm going to do is sit back and follow the progress of these kids. Because that's what they are...kids. They are not magic bullets that'll solve all the organization's problems.

I hope it turns out well for all of them.

Just don't fall into the habit of talking in certainties, because it might not.

Brandon Lyon Long Overdue for Recognition

Kurt Mensching — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 16:10:09 -0400

Brandon Lyon did not make the best first impression.

Giving up four consecutive home runs in a spring training game will do that to you. So will allowing three runs in your first official appearance to cost your new team a win, as he did in the Tigers' second game of the season.

And having three losses and a 6.89 ERA 13 games into the season sure didn't earn him any fans, either.

But for any holdouts, it's time to forgive and forget. Lyon is not just a valuable member of the bullpen, he's an incredibly important reason the Tigers are contenders today.

Counter-intuitive as it may sound, the turning point came late on the night of May 13, as Minnesota's Joe Crede rounded the bases celebrating his walk-off grand slam off Lyon in the 13th inning.

Sure, the temptation to curse him for blowing the hard-fought lead the Tigers took in the top half of the inning was present.

But Lyon was asked to take the bullet for the bullpen, and he did so with dignity. With no one else available, he took over in the bottom of the 11th inning and would be there until the end, win or lose, or else things would get very ugly.

So he threw 60 pitches, more than any of the other 12 pitches in the game, except for the two starters.

He took the loss, but he he earned his stripes.

Since that day, he has given up just six runs in 40.67 innings (that's a 1.34 ERA). Think that sounds impressive? Since the All-Star Break, he has not allowed a run.

The Best Laid Schemes o' Mice an' Men...

Lyon came to Detroit from Arizona with the mind set he would take over as the team's closer. Fernando Rodney had other ideas, and earned that distinction when manager Jim Leyland rewarded him for a solid exhibition season by giving him the first crack at pitching the ninth inning. Rodney did not disappoint, and has not loosened his grip.

Lyon, on the other hand, crashed. From setup man to mop-up man, he saw his stock tumble.

Whether it was due to disappointment, learning how to pitch in a new league, or just bad luck, Lyon could be described as nothing short of terrible to start the year.

Maybe it was the lack of success. Maybe it's that both Lyon and his stuff resemble Todd Jones, who despite mostly finding success in a Tigers' uniform will be remembered for causing more fear than calm. But whatever the reason, Lyon became a lightning rod for fans.

He was even booed by some during his home opener introduction.

The Glue That Holds the Bullpen Together

Yet since that night in Minnesota, he's been nothing short of phenomenal and has helped make the late innings become a position of strength for the Tigers.

Lyon really doesn't have a defined role, but he really doesn't need one. He has gone from mop-up to seventh inning to setup. He's pitched in extra innings. He's thrown alongside lefty Bobby Seay as half the duo dubbed Seay-Lyon by the Tigers' announcers.

During that time, rookie Ryan Perry fell from the late innings in Detroit to the late innings in Triple-A Toledo, as he lost his control, before making a return to middle relief for the Tigers. Setup fireballer Joel Zumaya fell apart—literally, as he is scheduled for season-ending shoulder surgery with Dr. James Andrews on Aug. 21.

Several others have come and gone. But the late innings for the Tigers have been nothing to fear, due in large part to Lyon.

Recognition for that is long overdue.

Kurt Mensching write for MackAvenueTigers.com.

Why the Tigers Are in the AL Central Driver's Seat for the Stretch Run

Kurt Mensching — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:35:55 -0400

It's no secret. The Detroit Tigers are not exactly blowing the doors off the American League Central Division right now.

And while for some that might be cause for concern that the other shoe is about to drop, a wider angle shows the Tigers might be in a better position today than you think.

At the 114-game mark of the season, they're just six games above .500. This is good for first place, because the White Sox are just barely treading water at one over, while Twins are four games under.

It's not how you draw it up, but fortunately they don't put detailed standings on the back side of the pennants they raise the following spring.

Also fortunately for the Tigers is they're the ones with the lead, so they just have to hold serve, more or less, while the pressure is on the competition to do what they have been unable to do yet this season: play substantially better than .500 baseball.

If Detroit went 24-24 over its final 48 games, it would finish at 84-78 for the season. Not exactly world-beater territory. Yet, it puts pressure that puts on the division opponents.

With five more games on the road than at home, Chicago would have to go 26-21 (.553) to force a tiebreaker, or 27-20 (.574) to win outright on Oct. 4. I'm not saying they can't do it, but I'm just saying they haven't done it yet. Their best month was 15-13 during interleague play.

The schedule the White Sox face for the rest of the season might be described as brutal.

After finishing their three-game set this weekend with a much-improved Oakland team, they have a bit of a lull before reaching what might be the make-it-or-break-it portion of the schedule.

On Aug. 24, they travel to Boston for four games. From there, they head to New York for three. Then they hop on the plane after that and fly to Minneapolis, where the Twins are especially good at home. Finally, they head home to Chicago, but first have to play a makeup game at Wrigley Field.

If they survive that 11-game period, they still have to head out west again in the middle of September and finish the season with six games on the road, including the final three at Detroit.

If they somehow survive that and go on to win the division, more power to them.

The Twins have darn-near mission impossible at this point, but the easiest schedule of the three teams to tackle.

To match Detroit's .500 and force a tiebreaker, Minnesota must go 29-19 (.604) to force a tiebreaker game for the second year in a row, or 30-18 (.625) to win outright. Again, not impossible.

But for a team whose best month is 15-12 and who currently stands at four games under, that's asking a lot, isn't it?

The road they travel is the one you want, however. Outside the Tigers, the toughest team (by record) on their schedule is Texas, where they'll be for four games next week. They host the Rangers for three later in August.

Gone are the worries about East powerhouses New York, Boston, and Tampa, as well as West-leader Anaheim.

What they have going against them is a tough road trip near the end of the season.

From Sept. 21 through Oct. 1, they hit Chicago for three games, Kansas City for three, and then Detroit for four.

Of course, they haven't proven they're able to do a lot of damage against the weaker teams, either. They've split with the Royals (4-4) and are 5-4 vs. the Indians, yet 0-2 vs. the Orioles.

But that's the schedule you want right now.

OK, so how about the Tigers?

I'd say their schedule is somewhat mixed, though still on the difficult side of things. They are yet to face the Rays (61-53), for one. For reference, Chicago went 6-2 against them, and the Twins 3-3. They have four against the Blue Jays at home, too.

But they still face Kansas City nine times, which is nice to see. And they have 27 of the final 48 games at Comerica Park, where they have one of the best advantages in the American League with a 36-18 record this year.

Of course, they need that home advantage because they have been nothing short of awful on the road during the second half of the year.

The main spot to watch, besides a six-game trip to California later this month, falls from the middle of September through the end of the season.

From Sept. 18-27, they'll travel to Minnesota, Cleveland and Chicago for a total of nine games. They'll have to claw through that, but if they survive, home cooking awaits.

Detroit concludes the season with four games against the Twins and three against the White Sox.

If you're in a nip-and-tuck division battle and those are the two teams you have to put away final surges from, that's exactly how you write it up. Detroit controls its own fate, unless it stumbles hard before that point.

But even if the Tigers do stumble, neither team chasing them has shown the ability to take much advantage of it.

During the past 10 games, Detroit's paltry 5-5 record helped it increase distance over Chicago (4-6) and Minnesota (3-7).

That, apparently, is just how this season is going to go.

So, can the Tigers go .500 to keep the pressure on? I don't know.

Do they have to? Probably not.

But what we do know for sure, it's way too early to be claiming the team's demise is just around the next corner.

And if the Tigers do hold on for their first division title since 1987, only the worst of naysayers will care how they got there.

The rest of the Tigers fans will be celebrating.

Kurt Mensching writes for MackAvenueTigers.com.

Jim Leyland Is Correct: Fans Growing Tired of Hearing About Steroids

Kurt Mensching — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 15:38:55 -0400

Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz were all steroid users. But what else besides that do they have in common? That baseball fans across the country continued rooting for them.

It's about time baseball realized that most fans just don't care anymore. But what really matters is what the media thinks; and they obviously feel that fans still care.

This past weekend, it was refreshing to hear from a baseball elder statesmen on this topic, Tiger manager Jim Leyland.

When asked about Ortiz's recent positive test and the infamous list of 104 banned-substance users in 200, he said:

"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball."

"Do we want to peck until we get every last name out? What's the difference? I don't condone any form of cheating, but I'm tired of press conferences about steroids. Who am I to judge? It's none of my business."

"I'm not trying to prove (baseball) innocent. We've made some mistakes. The worst era in baseball was when guys were found guilty of using cocaine and other (bleep) because they could've gone out there and hurt someone."

I couldn't have said it better myself, but I'll try anyway.

As a fan who speaks to other fans, we just don't care about steroids anymore. We did before, but its become so rampant that its no longer a shock.

In addition, no one is really sure if baseball was ever pure; but I do know this: The storyline you see in all athletics, from amateur to professional, is top athletes being caught with banned substances. This isn't anything new. Baseball, football, track-and-field, swimming, you name it, and they have issues.

Modern steroids may be the best and least detectable enhancement device yet. But I think you'd have to be naive to believe there weren't players willing to skip the weight room to gain an advantage.

That isn't to imply every athlete does it. Or even the majority. But if they did, would it really matter?

The baseball purist answer is yes.

How can you compare stats across time periods when a guy like Barry Bonds breaks the home run record, and is alleged of doing it unfairly?

The sudden outbreak of PEDs is a marked break in the continuum linking the ballplayers of the 1800s to the ballplayers of today.

I respect that view, but I cannot buy into it myself.

With time, the old movie reels, the black-and-white photos, and the old newspaper stories that only told half the story, seem to take on more stature than they deserve.

Just because it wasn't written doesn't mean it didn't happen. At times, we take our desire to respect history too far.

That brings us to today.

Due to the legal nature of the documents—and illegal leaking of some strategic names—a whole added level of intrigue is given to the list of players who took banned substances. But it would be nice if the entire list would be published at once. You get your "oohs" and "ahhs" in for a few days and move on. But legally, that is impossible. So instead, we just get steroid fatigue.

And ultimately, it doesn't matter.

Baseball went from a sport whose labor issues overwhelmed it in the mid-'90s, to a sport playing in front of sold out stadiums, and to high TV ratings by the early-2000s.

Years later, we find out maybe the muscles were fake. So what? Even if that would have mattered years ago, it has little baring on the action on the field today.

Today, we've got more important things to care about, like several close pennant chases and Albert Pujols making a run at the Triple Crown.

This season, one star player admitted he took PEDs in the past, and no one cared. Another was banned for 50 games, then welcomed back by cheering throats.

It's just not a big deal to a majority of the fans. Sins occur, and sins are forgiven.

Leyland was right; its time to move on.

Alex Avila Amazes In Debut

Kurt Mensching — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:16:38 -0400

To say the Tigers' decision to bring catcher Alex Avila to the majors this week was universally panned by close followers of the team might be an understatement.

It was nothing against Avila. It's hard not to look at a hard-hitting, left-handed catcher and smile with anticipation of what he can do for the team for years to come. The Tigers knew what they were doing when they selected him in the fifth round of the 2008 draft. He was going to make them look pretty smart for it, too.

In 2011.

At least, that was when you would anticipate the arrival of a guy drafted 14 months ago who did not even put on the catcher's mask until he was an upperclassman at Alabama.

He's got to continue working on his defensive skill set, we all said. To do that, he needs more regular playing time, we all said. What's the point in calling up a catching prospect early and possibly stunting his growth when you don't even let your backup catcher play, we all wondered.

Avila is going to make the Tigers look pretty smart again.

If they let him.

Amazing Avila wows

Two days after being called up from Double-A Erie, Avila made his major league debut Thursday afternoon, a 22-year-old catcher and one-half of a pitching battery that was just a combined 42 years old. It was almost hard to remember 20-year-old Rick Porcello is the one with 20 games of experience, because Avila made it clear from the start: He belonged.

And why not? The son of assistant general manager Al Avila, Alex has been prowling Comerica Park for seven years now. Some players might be intimidated by the major league clubhouse, their veteran teammates, or an expansive ballpark that seats more than four times the last field they stepped off of.

The stage may be bigger, the games may mean a lot more, but it was still just a game of baseball for the kid. If he was intimidated, he didn't show it.

So when he struck out in his first major league at-bat after a lengthy struggle, no big deal. He'd get them next time.

And in the third inning, he did with a rip down the right field line for his first hit, his first double and his first RBI, all in one, while his father received congratulations in the press box and the rest of his family leaped for joy in the stands.

In the fifth inning, he collected his second hit. In the seventh, he darn near had a third, but the line drive was snapped out of the air by Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts.

In between, he handled Porcello like a pro, calling a game that saw zero Orioles hits and just one base runner before the fifth inning, going to the mound to exchange words with his pitcher and give him a breather when needed.

You can't help but smile when thinking of all the years the Tigers might have those two as a star attraction.

Another debut to remember

Earlier this year, Tigers fans had the opportunity to see the debut of their top prospect and catcher, Matt Wieters. And to be sure, it's likely Wieters will put it all together and have a better career than Avila when it's all added up. He wasn't a top prospect for nothing.

But he still went 0-for-4 that day in May and looked like the rookie that he is.

Now, Orioles fans got a chance to see what has Detroit excited.

Temper expectations

A career isn't built in a day.

The Tigers will bring Avila along slowly. Manager Jim Leyland told the media the young catcher will mostly be used to catch the games of Porcello and Armando Galarraga. More off days for starting catcher Gerald Laird is a plan we can all get behind, while Avila will still start in about 40 percent of the games.

It's possible to read too much into one game, so fight that urge.

But if ever there was a debut to silence the doubters fast, it was Avila's.

Kurt Mensching writes for MackAvenueTigers.com

Justin Verlander Takes Another Step Toward Being a True Ace

Kurt Mensching — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:28:30 -0400

You could be forgiven if you were momentarily distracted by Clete Thomas's booming walkoff home run against Baltimore this past Monday.

Last-swing victories have a way of doing that.

But now that we've had a day or two to get the smiles off our faces, let's not forget the true storyline Monday: The performance by Justin Verlander was further proof that he isn't just another pitcher on the Tigers staff, but turning into a bonafide ace.

It's easy to forget that Verlander is just 26-years-old. Currently, he leads the American League in strikeouts and has a 12-5 record with a 3.29 ERA.

But there's still room for growth considering its only his fourth year in the league.

Until this past week, when the Tigers traded for Jarrod Washburn, Verlander was the veteran of the young staff. That's why Monday's game was important.

When Verlander gave up five runs in the first inning, all that could've been flashing through manager Jim Leyland's mind was: "This is the last thing we need."

Day after day, the Tigers bullpen is being called upon as the starters struggle. A 13-inning game here, 12-innings there. Just this past weekend, one of their best pitchers, Edwin Jackson, only lasted four innings.

Then, Monday, Verlander goes out and gets his butt handed to him in the first inning.

At this point, you felt there was no remedy for Tigers fans. But then, Verlander took command and cruised to an easy victory.

He did exactly what an ace is supposed to: He took the team on his back and told them to follow his lead. The result was increased confidence, victory, and a rested bullpen.

After the game, Verlander said:

"This is one of my favorite starts of my career. In the past, I would have fallen apart. When I struggled in the first, I would never make it out of the fourth. Tonight, I went eight and kept us in the game."

After watching Verlander throughout the season, we can all say it wasn't his most dominating start. It certainly wasn't his best either.

But what it was, was another step forward in the evolution of the Tigers young ace.

Embrace The Fear Of August, Detroit

Kurt Mensching — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 14:39:24 -0400

It's no secret, August has not been kind to the Tigers in the past.

For most of this decade, bad teams, bad injuries, bad luck and bad baseball have crushed runs at .500 and division titles alike during the penultimate month of the regular season.

Remember that 10-game lead Aug. 7, 2006?

It was but a mirage barking in the summer's heat when the Tigers go 7-15 the rest of the month.

A half-game lead Aug. 15, 2007?

By Sept. 1 it was all over but the crying because the Detroiters went 5-9 to finish the month 5.5 games out.

And those were the only two seasons the team finished above .500 for the season.

The best August was an 18-10 month in 2000. The worst? When Detroit went 6-23 in 2003 (But that season was so bad, let's call it the 11-18 in 2007, because it meant a lot more than most other years).

In April, I'm thinking about August. In May, I'm thinking about August. In June and in July, I'm really thinking about August.

Uh-oh. It's here.

And the Tigers are in first place.

You tell yourself, "It's different this year." Different players, different team. Better pitching. Better fielding. Worse division-opponents (I mean, really, the Twins are in a pennant race while playing under .500?). You tell yourself to throw out the numbers between 2001 and 2004, because the team was essentially a Triple-A squad being trotted out to the field every day of the month. Talk about statistical noise if that's your thing.

But in the end, you just can't shake 2006 and 2007, when good teams picked a bad time to have an awful month.

I'm not going to tell you it's going to be any different this year. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Who's to say? But embrace the fear.

Because fear means the games matter.

It's not going to be an easy month for the Detroiters. The always-pesky Twins come to town before the Tigers head off for a four-game set in Boston. That is followed later in the month by a six-game trip to Oakland and Anaheim, and we know how the Tigers play on the west coast. And finally, there's still the matter of a set of games with the still-fighting Rays.

But despite everything, I like the Tigers' chances. I really do.

It all comes down to pitching, and Detroit has the American League's second-best earned run average (4.07) to show for it. When the summer months heat up and pitchers wilt under the sun, the Tigers still put up their best monthly ERA split of the season (3.53).

And that was before replacing a long line of pitchers—from Zach Miner to Dontrelle Willis to Alfredo Figaro to Luke French—with Jarrod Washburn in the rotation. Seattle fans can laugh. Saber folks can snicker. But none of those names can even begin to compare favorably to Washburn.

No doubt, the Tigers will need to hit better—or at least a bit more timely. The terrific pitching performance of July was essentially squandered by low-run production and bad luck. Detroit scored seven more runs than it allowed for the month, yet went 10-14.

But there is certainly room for improvement, and it's actually hard to believe the Detroiters can score much less than they did in July.

There's no guarantees here. August has always been bad, but that doesn't mean it will be bad again. It doesn't mean it will be good, either. But really, it's just another month.

What matters in the end is riding a pennant race for all it's worth. We don't get one of these things all that often.

Embrace the fear.

Debating Magglio Ordonez

Kurt Mensching — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:25:20 -0400

I’m not going to argue the Tigers should release Magglio Ordonez. I’m not going to argue they shouldn’t. But sometimes when reading forums or comments, here or elsewhere, I think an incomplete picture of the player is painted, so I thought I’d try to paint a better one. Thus, it follows.

In baseball, there’s always talk about five-tool players. Simplified, that’s hitting for average, hitting for power, running speed, fielding ability, and arm strength. (Personally, I like to replace “hitting for average” with “ability to get on base” and add in the ability to take walks, but that’s not part of the traditional five.)

So, how does Ordonez stack up on the tools?

Ability to get on base — Lifetime average of .311, this year’s average is .275. Lifetime on-base percentage is .370, this year it’s .349. I think it’s safe to say Ordonez still knows how to get himself on base. Even during his “slump” in May-June he ran up what, a 17-game hitting streak? So he clearly excels here still.
Hitting for power — You could look at slugging percentage, which is really just an average of total bases per at bat. But then you’re including singles into the equation and rewarding Maggs for having contact. I look at isolated power here. Quick explanation: a batter who hits 25-for-100 has a .250 batting average, but if those are all doubles, he has .500 slugging percentage and .250 isolated power. Lifetime, Ordonez has an ISO of .202. (To compare, Placido Polanco’s is .111, Miguel Cabrera’s is .232 and Marcus Thames‘ is .282.) His career at-bats per home run is 22.5. (Cabrera’s is 18.5.) So again, I think it’s safe to say Ordonez has been a power hitter for his career. You didn’t need stats to know that, of course.
Here’s the thing that’s disconcerting: Even last year his AB/HR (26.7) and ISO (.176) were among the worst of his career, other than 2005 when he was frequently injured. This season, both numbers are career worsts: 111 AB/HR and .068 ISO. Given this is not just a one-year occurrence, I believe it’s safe to say Ordonez is not a real power hitter any more. Is he as bad as he’s been this season? That’s hard saying. Probably not THAT bad. But I don’t think you can expect him to bounce back to the player he used to be.
Speed — OK, I don’t have any stats to back me up on this one. But I don’t think anyone would debate what the eye tells you: he’s not fast. He seems sorta like a catcher when he’s going around the base paths.
Fielding ability — The eye tells you he’s bad. He’s really not bad though. He’s not good either. Just a bit below average. In comparison to the players on the Tigers’ bench, I’d choose Don Kelly, Josh Anderson or, my top pick, Clete Thomas, to be in right field. He clearly does not have the range to get to balls hit to left field, probably thanks to his speed but also thanks to some bad routes he’s taken to the ball. It’s hard to find a stat to describe Ordonez’s fielding, but range runs is one stat. He’s 1.2 runs worse than the average fielder. (Anderson is -1.0, Clete Thomas +1.4). The more traditional stat, his fielding percentage is a carer .986 and he’s at .965 this year. So OK, he rates as a below-average outfielder, but not greatly so.
Throwing ability — Ordonez rates as -0.3 on his ARM rating, so again he’s slightly below average. The eye test tells me he’s got a decent arm though. So make of that what you will. I guess it’s average. He has two outfield assists this season, he’s typically in the 5-10 range for the year.

So there you go. The picture of Ordonez that gives me is a capable hitter, but one who isn’t going to give Thames or Cabrera (or Inge?!) a run for their money when it comes to extra-base hits. He holds his own in the outfield.

He doesn’t make a lot of flashy plays, but he doesn’t make a lot of big mistakes either. Runners can try to advance on him, but he’ll definitely throw some out.

He is still capable of contributing to a baseball team in contention. But if you compare him to other right fielders, maybe the picture of how much he contributes changes a bit. His on-base percentage ranks as seventh-best in the American League among qualified right fielders (which he is not, due to also spending some time at DH).

His slugging of .354 is 38th among all right fielders and would be 10th or worse among qualified right fielders. It is 70 points behind Cleveland’s Shin-Soo Shoo, who ranks ninth. His two stolen bases are a non-starter. His 24 RBIs, too, ranks last compared to the nine qualified right fielders.

Last year’s numbers would put Ordonez around the fringes of the upper third in both slugging and on-base percentage in today’s AL.

Basically, what I’m getting at there, is that when you compare Ordonez to the production typically found at his position, he pales this year, and though it’s reasonable to expect for him to see some rebound from his poor start to the season, he’s still at best a league-average right fielder. And he does not make up for it with his fielding ability.

Great players keep putting up big stats in their 40s. (Apparently, so do a lot of players who were previously pretty good but kept using steroids, say Barry Bonds.) That’s how they set such high career marks. Good players play until their mid 30s. Average players may stick around until 30. And mediocre players have a couple of seasons in their 20s.

Ordonez is 35. He’s had a pretty nice career, and he’s given a baseball-loving peoples around the state of Michigan memories that will last a life time.

Maybe, at age 35, it’s fair to say he’s not going to put up the kinds of numbers he did in 2006 and 2007. For most players, the dropoff becomes a bit steeper as you age. Maybe, this is the player he is today.

There’s nothing wrong with that. He just has to be played accordingly.

What do you think?

Tiger Stadium: It's Time To Move on

Kurt Mensching — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:25:27 -0400

Word that the last remnants of a 100-year baseball history at the corner of Michigan and Trumbull will come down set off another wave of nostalgia for Tiger Stadium. I think it’s a testament to how deeply baseball is ingrained in our collective Michigan culture that a ballpark sets off emotions like that.

But I—and I may be in the minority here—will just be glad to see it go.

This Tiger Stadium thing has been handled poorly from the start—from the Tigers, to the city to the councils, to the commissions, to the development corporations, to the committees to save the world. A place of fond memories became overgrown with trees and weeds on the inside as the facade slowly peeled and fell off the outside. And then the wrecking ball hit it, again and again and again. First a gash, then a hole, then entire walls fell into piles of rubble.

And just like that, on a fall day last year, they stopped. What a perfectly Detroit thing to do; to leave an abandoned, half torn-down building to continue crumbling. Hey, what’s another, right?

So left raw and exposed was the place of so many of our childhood memories, of time spent with mom or dad or best friends, of winning seasons, of historic home runs, of right field overhangs, of the base paths that Ty Cobb and Hank Greenberg and Al Kaline and Kirk Gibson and Cecil Fielder once circled to our cheers. Naked. Without dignity.

Because some wanted to preserve it.

Just get it over with. You’ve destroyed her. You took a simple task, and you screwed it up.

The Tiger Stadium story will not end with a sellout crowd paying homage, with a Bird scooping dirt from the mound, with a grand slam and a swinging strike three as Todd Jones preserves the win.

But it should have.

It’s time to move on.

Detroit Tigers Should Look Within For Backup Catcher

Kurt Mensching — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:03:10 -0400

It’s become more than apparent: Dane Sardinha can’t hit. Heck, he can hardly get on base. There are Mendoza lines, and there are lines that make Mendoza’s look good. Sardinha’s amazing .083 batting average (.080 on-base percentage!) is the latter.

There are two schools of thought here. The first:

HOLY CRAP!

How can anyone hit that badly?

And the second: Something should be done about that problem.

I’m more along the first line of thought, for now anyway. Through May 31, Sardinha has played in just eight games, and he’s batted just 24 times. I just can’t believe Sardinha could possibly continue to hit that poorly.

And besides that, he’s a backup catcher. Given Sardinha’s successful work with the pitchers and that his defense both appears to be more than adequate, and given that he only tends to play one day a week, I’m not exactly worried about him right now.

The future, however?

The Detroit News' Tom Gage asked his readers if the Tigers might want to think about about grabbing hold of the backup catcher designated for assignment by the Baltimore Orioles to make room for Matt Wieters: Chad Moeller. I’ve been asked via Twitter if there are any trades the Tigers can make. To me, none of this matters until manager Jim Leyland starts giving Tigers starting catcher Gerald Laird more rest.

And when he does—and he must, as Laird has played in 42 of the Tigers’ 49 games and will wear down as the season goes on at that rate—the system already has the answer for a poor-hitting Sardinha:

Dusty Ryan

He played a decent amount of games last September after Pudge Rodriguez was traded to the Yankees. With an .880 OPS in 50 plate appearances for the Tigers, he appeared to be the answer to the question of who would take over behind home plate for Detroit in 2009. But Tigers officials didn’t feel he was ready yet, so they sent him back to Triple-A where he could play in most games.

After a slow start, the 24-year-old has a .375 OBP to go with .434 slugging for an .809 OPS. Not bad for a guy who might not even the organization’s top catching prospect—that distinction might go to Alex Avila at Double-A Erie.

If the Tigers have to make a move at catcher, I’d rather see Ryan be given the time back in the big leagues to continue his work with a pitching staff that he could very well be backstopping soon. I don’t think it would be in anyone’s best interest for the Tigers to make a move right now when the answer can be found within the organization.

Zach Miner Should Rejoin Detroit Tigers' Rotation

Kurt Mensching — Sat, 30 May 2009 15:46:32 -0400

All the talk is what happens when Jeremy Bonderman is deemed ready to return to the starting rotation, which could come as early as next week, or as late as the middle of the month.

We speak about it as if it is a certainty he will return to the rotation, thus bumping either rookie Rick Porcello (doubtful), struggling lefty Dontrelle Willis (maybe) or struggling righty Armando Galarraga (possible) from the rotation. That’s a debate for another time. I have a different idea for you to bat around:

A return of Zach Miner to the starting rotation gives the Detroit Tigers the best chance to win now.

Had he not been pulled from the rotation in the first place, the Tigers would probably have a couple more wins than they do today. So why did manager Jim Leyland choose to make Miner a reliever?

He is what you’d typically consider a pretty decent swing man. He can start a game and give you a chance to win. He can relieve a game when the starter stumbles and stem the bleeding. The team considers him as more of a long-term reliever than starter anyway. Pretty valuable guy to have around, right?

So why start him? While Miner may not possess the stuff of the Tigers’ top three starters, he has certainly come through with more consistency than either Dontrelle Willis or Armando Galarraga has shown this year.

In fact, the only game that Galarraga started this month that didn’t result in a Tigers loss was one in which Miner took over in the first inning. That begs the question. Why wasn’t he starting there in the first place?

Here’s just one way of tracking the effectiveness of a pitcher’s start, inexact as it is: ESPN’s game scores. ESPN describes it as such:

Start with 50 points. Add one point for each out recorded (one points per inning). Add two points for each inning completed after the fourth. Add one point for each strikeout. Subtract two points for each hit allowed. Subtract four points for each earned run allowed. Subtract two points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract one point for each walk.

Though simple, it does a pretty good job sorting out the best pitched games, and, as you would expect, the best pitchers tend to have a high score frequently, more often than not a high score results in a win, and you don’t necessarily need a lot of strikeouts to qualify, though it helps.

Here’s some Tigers game scores:

30. 74. 48. 18.

55. 8. 56. 49.

73. 67. 58. 48.

30, 37, 37, 21.

If you follow the Tigers close enough, you don’t need me to supply names for those. You can sort most of it out.

Willis is the first. He started off poorly, pitched a great game, threw an average game, then pitched awful last night. The third is Edwin Jackson, who has been consistently above average. The fourth is Galarraga, who managed not to win a game in six starts this month.

Miner is the second. While the rest of the starters had their samples taken from May, I obviously had to go back to April for some of his.

As you can see, other than the start against Chicago in the cold and pouring rain (his opponent’s game score was 28), Miner was a consistent, effective starter. He did not sparkle like Willis’ one start. He is not consistently good like Jackson. But he’s consistently better than the alternatives. Go back to 2008 and the story is the same.

Of course, anyone who watched the Tigers play doesn’t need some stats from ESPN to tell them that. Miner works low in the strike zone. He doesn’t walk a lot. The defense will stay much more interested in the game than one where seemingly every batter goes to the three count, if a walk isn’t issued.

True, he doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts, but neither do Willis or Galarraga. Miner limits the crooked innings too. Other than the White Sox game, he has not given up more than two runs in an inning. He doesn’t give up a lot of home runs, either.

Simply put, he’s going to consistently give Detroit a chance to win most times he’s on the mound.

Right now, that’s not a statement I think you can make about either Galarraga or Willis. And frankly, given the reports we’ve received on Bonderman so far, I’m not sure you can make that assertion about him yet, either.

On Rick Porcello and Strikeouts

Kurt Mensching — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:48:05 -0400

Now that the Tigers’ 20-year-old rookie Rick Porcello is doing some things baseball hasn’t seen for a long time from a player so young—at least in the wins and runs columns of the ledger—there comes the question of trying to categorize him.

You’ve got to find the proper slot for him, you know, so you can make the declaration: “Rick Porcello is the next ____.” So the two themes often brought up when discussing Porcello—and I was guilty of this myself before I actually saw him pitch—are that, when you look at the stats, you don’t see a lot of strikeouts, but you do see a lot of groundballs.

So what is Porcello? The next Brandon Webb? Roy Halladay? Josh Beckett? All good company to keep, right?

ESPN.com’s Rob Neyer takes that question on, responding to a post at John Q Public:

"The Beckett comparison is tenuous, as they’re different sorts of pitchers; Porcello’s been described as the best high-school pitcher since Beckett, but that’s about as far as that goes. [Dwight] Gooden ... well, Gooden was in a different universe than anyone else, at 19 and 20. Halladay? Well, OK. They’re both tall and throw hard sinkers.

"I think John Sickels is closer to the mark, though. His take on Porcello before the season: 'He’s an elite prospect, but he seems more like a Brandon Webb- or Carlos Zambrano-style pitcher to me, not a Josh Beckett.'"

And let me quote this, before we get too far, which Neyer writes and I agree with:

"Porcello at 20 is an effective major league starter. That’s plenty impressive enough. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves."

Here’s the thing. Everyone has a view on Porcello. Some want to build him up to being a future Hall of Famer. Some want to knock him down because they’re sick of the hype. Porcello seems to want to just blend in with his teammates and avoid the limelight. And, fortunately, his team wants to protect him. It’s way too early to figure this kid out. Let's not try. Let's let him develop a bit.

But I submit to the amateur and professional prognosticators alike out there who simply must make a comparison that there’s a bit more to Porcello than you’re seeing in the box score, so you should really watch him with your own eyes and keep some of these other stats in mind:

Porcello can be a strikeout pitcher, but he is still just a 20-year-old developing his pitches, learning on the fly and seeing what works. When he drops his curve ball on an unsuspecting batter—which he goes to about 16 percent of the time and has only started deploying a bit more often in his past five starts—he can get swings and misses all day.

And that’s not even his best pitch. When he needs a strikeout, he can get a strikeout. He got four strikeouts in the first two innings of his most recent start, all swings and misses.

So why is his strikeout-per-nine rate a low 5.57? Because he does what all sorts of pitching coaches and managers want you to do: works quickly. How many strikeouts is he supposed to get throwing 3.67 pitches per plate appearance? How many do you expect when he cruises through innings in an average of less than 15 pitches?

Both figures put him among the top 10 regular starters in the AL. His teammate, Justin Verlander, may rack up the K’s, but he’s got the 120-130 pitch count to go with it. Porcello doesn’t have the luxury of knowing he can pitch deep into a game.

You look at yesterday. After a 26-pitch first inning, putting Porcello in jeopardy of not making it through five innings before he hit his pitch count, he settled in at just above 10 pitches per inning for the next five.

On a tight leash, he was able to give his team six innings without once making his manager worry about pitch counts. You can never say, “He’d have struck out 10,” or something. But watching those first two innings, I think you could say if he wanted to add a few more K’s to his ledger, he could have.

You can’t dispute, he’s more of a finesse pitcher (fast ball averages 91.3, tops out about 95 per Gameday data) than a power pitcher like Justin Verlander (95.3 is his average fast ball), obviously. But don’t write Porcello off as a guy who can’t get strikeouts.

Right now, he’s a kid on a short leash who found to get through six innings, he just doesn’t have to. Last year in the minors, he was described by Baseball Prospectus as toying with opposing batters, rather than striking them out. This year, he may not be teasing major leaguers, but he’s sure getting them out.

And like everyone at age 20, he’s got a lot of growing up to do left. Let’s give him another season or two before we figure out what he might become.

Who knows, maybe someday, we’ll be saying about some young kid, “He just might be the next Rick Porcello!”

(Data from Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, ESPN.com)

Huston Street: The Detroit Tigers' Savior? Umm, No

Kurt Mensching — Thu, 28 May 2009 14:06:28 -0400

FoxSports.com’s Dayn Perry thinks the Tigers should make a trade with the Rockies for Huston Street, who recorded a couple of stress-free saves for Colorado against Detroit over the weekend. Why? He has no faith in Fernando Rodney. (FoxSports.com).

Quoting Perry:

Current closer Fernando Rodney? He hasn’t had a closer-worthy season since 2005. Rodney has yet to blow a save in 2009, but it’s highly unlikely he’s going to maintain that sub-4.00 ERA.

In other words, Detroit needs help.

That’s where Huston Street comes in.

Street, who’s still just 25, has yet to surrender a run in May, and that’s despite his being a fly-ball pitcher in Coors Field. Getting out of the thin Denver air will allow Street to rely on his slider more often (and his change-up less often), and that should yield even better results.

Personally, I don’t buy it. Not that I feel all is wonderful when Rodney is on the mound, but he's not blowing saves either. He’s not one of the elite, feared closers like Jonathan Papelbon (blown save), Bobby Jenks (blown save), Mariano Rivera (blown save), or Joe Nathan (two blown saves), of course.

He’s not going to be perfect all season. But with a WHIP of 1.11 (better than Papelbon’s and Jenks’, only slightly higher than Rivera’s and Nathan’s) it’s not like he’s playing with fire on a nightly basis either.

Thanks in part to that, fielding independent pitching stat is 3.27, the lowest of his career (Fangraphs).

Like Street, Rodney is in the final year of his contract. More than winning, he could be setting himself up for a big payday as well. If he stumbles, Detroit has a couple more flame throwing closer-understudies in Joel Zumaya and Ryan Perry. I’ll take my chances.

Besides, I’ve been a follower of the A’s for years. Frankly, I worry about Street’s ability to remain healthy for the rest of the year.

Yes, the Detroit Tigers Can Win the AL Central Division

Kurt Mensching — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:20:31 -0400

As you know if you’re a regular reader, I know better than to think how a team is doing on Memorial Day will be a direct prediction for how the team finishes the year (although, if you look back the past two years in the American League, it predicted all but one of the playoff teams).

Nonetheless, I’d rather the team I root for be leading the division by four games and have the best ERA in the AL on that day, you know? That is the fortunate place the Tigers find themselves in now that they are more than 25 percent through the season.

Comparisons to 2006 are popping up all of a sudden, and for good reasons. For one, Tigers fans and writers really don’t a lot of other successful seasons to compare this to in recent years, because the franchise was so wildly bad for nearly two decades.

But also, Detroit is getting it done with crisp pitching and solid defense yet again. Obviously, 2006 was a banner year for the team, with the Tigers finishing the season as one of the final two teams playing due in large part to running through the playoffs.

My sights aren’t set so high this year: You never know what will happen in October. But based on what we’ve seen so far, I think the 2009 Tigers have a pretty good shot to pick up what they lost on the last day of the regular season in 2006: the Central Division pennant. It would be their first.

What Detroit had in 2006 and 2009, but not in the middle two years, was consistent pitching at this point in the season. The Tigers lead the AL with a 3.87 ERA. They lead baseball with six shutouts.

Their top two pitchers have ERAs of 2.55 and 3.55 respectively, and the second number belongs to Justin Verlander, who has gone six consecutive games of allowing two runs or less.

Throw in the rookie, Rick Porcello (with a 1.13 ERA his last four starts, 3.55 overall), and you’ve got a step toward a series sweep when these three take the mound in order.

If Dontrelle Willis deals anything like his past two games, and Jeremy Bonderman looks like the pitcher he was before having a rib and blood clot removed, the Tigers pitching staff with a league-best 4.34 runs allowed per game may get even better as the season unfolds.

How’s this compare to the past couple of seasons? I glanced through my archives a bit to get a feel. Let’s just throw out 2008 right now, that will teach us nothing. In 2007, the Tigers were allowing 4.79 runs per game at this point in the season, making due with Chad Durbin, Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson in the rotation.

In 2006, they were off to an incredible start with a rookie Verlander being joined by Maroth (before his injury cost him most of the season), Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers. They allowed just 3.39 runs per game and had nine shutouts through 48 games.

The bullpens in 2006 and 2009 look similar too, in style if not substance. Joel Zumaya was just earning his reputation as a rookie flamethrow that year. In 2007, he was lost for much of the season in May when he blew up a tendon on a finger in his pitching hand. He was never the same that year, and injured for a large chunk of 2008.

Now, he reprises his roll as a flame-thrower, this time as the setup man. Likewise, Fernando Rodney was a healthy setup man in 2006, missed chunks of 2007 and 2008, and has now moved up an inning to close for the Tigers.

Gone is lefty-specialist Jamie Walker, but now he’s called Bobby Seay, and he can get right-handers out, too. Gone is Todd Jones, but enter … Bobby Lyon? At least he’s not pitching in the ninth, right?

On top of it, the Tigers can now trot out another radar-buster in Ryan Perry, and he’s not even being asked to work the late innings right now, but he’s got 18 strikeouts in 19 innings to go with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.

And I’ve said nothing of the offense, which is scoring half a run per game more than it was at this point in 2006, and that’s with Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez battling slumps this year, and Carlos Guillen on the disabled list.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you this team is better than 2006—though I have to tell you, it looks better at this point than the 2007 team that won 88 games did. But I am going to tell you this:

I don’t think it’s a fluke. This is a good baseball team. It should be considered the AL Central favorites

Again, the standard boilerplate “but” goes here. There’s almost 120 games left. The Tigers still have to beat Chicago and Minnesota with a bit more regularity than they have in the past few years. They’re going to have to limit Porcello’s innings. And unforseen injuries can knock all but the deepest teams off track.

I’m not saying to stand in line to buy your postseason tickets quite yet. But you might want to keep your October plans open, just in case.