Bleacher Report - Articles by Joseph Ciraco

Zenyatta: Horse Of The Year!

Joseph Ciraco — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 18:23:04 -0500

Isn't the cliche "It's not how you start but how you finish?"

For the better part of the year, Rachel Alexandra claimed the spotlight with win after win. However, the decision not to run her at the Breeders Cup Classic has opened up the Horse of the Year debate.

We all witnessed racing history Saturday, when Zenyatta stormed down the stretch and won the Breeders Cup Classic.

After an extremely slow start, Zenyatta overcame a near dozen length deficit and passed Gio Ponti with about 50 yards left to become the first filly to win the prestigious race.

Now the question is: Who is Horse of the Year?

At first glance, it appears Rachel Alexandra deserves that title but that's not the case.

Rachel Alexandra had an amazing 2009 campaign. She won all eight of her starts and won five grade one races, which included three victories over male horses.

On the other hand, Zenyatta won all five of her starts, with four of them being grade one races. Her "only" win against the boys came about 24 hours ago.

So, why am I picking Zenyatta? Let's look at the facts and the double standard.

A lot of "experts" will point out that Zenyatta avoided real competition until the Classic and her other wins this year were against inferior horses that she had already beat.

What about Rachel Alexandra? Did she not skip the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes and only run in a small field at the Preakness? What about her team passing on the Travers to run in the shorter and easier Woodward?

If you want to say ownership was doing what is best for the horse, why is that reason good enough for Rachel Alexandra but not Zenyatta?

Another interesting "issue" is that Rachel Alexandra owner Jess Jackson is not a big fan of the synthetic track-especially after Curlin came up short in last years Breeder Cup Classic.

Maybe Mr. Jackson should remember that Rachel Alexandra ran on the synthetic track once at Keenland and handled it very well, so please don't use the surface as an excuse.

If Rachel Alexandra had run in the Classic yesterday, I think she would have run very gamely because she is a fantastic horse.

With that being said, as we saw in the Woodward against good but not great field of horses, Rachel Alexandra began to falter at nine furlongs. The Classic is 10 furlongs and there is no doubt in my mind that Zenyatta and Gio Ponti would have passed a tiring Rachel Alexandra in the stretch.

In 2010, I'm fairly confident that Rachel Alexandra will be an even better race horse than she was in 2009. Remember, she's only three and not at the peak of her skill. It would not surprise me to see Rachel continue to dominant the sport in the races that she enters and winning the 2010 Breeders Cup Classic.

People can continue to knock Jerry Moss and John Sheriff for not taking Zenyatta out of California for a dream match up against Rachel Alexandra but don't let Jess Jackson off the hook for not entering his talented filly in the biggest race of the year.

Rachel Alexandra is the best three year old on the planet and she had a wonderful 2009 but while Zenyatta won just one race against the males, she won the one that matters the most. Not once in 2009 did Rachel Alexandra face a field as talented and deep as Zenyatta did in the Classic.

If I had a vote, I'd vote Zenyatta for Horse of the Year.

Serena Williams: Unacceptable Behavior

Joseph Ciraco — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 09:19:29 -0400

The best female player on the planet is Serena Williams. Nobody can dispute this—not even Dinara Safina, who is currently the No. 1 ranked player on the WTA tour.

We also know that, based on recent losses, Serena Williams shows little class in giving her opponents credit in victories over her.

Last night, Serena took it a step further as she threw a classic temper tantrum, and was ultimately penalized with a point violation on match point.

The WTA should investigate her actions. The outburst was absolutely unacceptable and disgusting.

Threatening to "shove a tennis ball down the throat" of another human being is completely appalling.

Many people will argue that the foot fault call was absurd. To be fair, it was very tough to "accept."

First, if Serena was serving and volleying, I would be the first to completely approve of the call since it would give her a slight advantage.

The timing of the call was really poor.

However, just like with the intentional grounding call against Terrell Pryor last night for Ohio State, rules are rules.

The sad thing is that what people will forget is that Kim Clijsters was outplaying Williams in this highly-anticipated match.

Clijsters had previously won just one of seven matches against Serena, but managed to dictate the majority of rallies in winning the semifinal match.

I don't believe Williams should be suspended from the WTA tour, but I do believe she should be fined and issue an apology.

Serena Williams is clearly not an ambassador of the sport like Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer.

She's just the best female player, who has problems accepting defeat.

Fourth Round Analysis of Monday Matches (Men)

Joseph Ciraco — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 09:04:43 -0400

Roger Federer vs Tommy Robredo

Despite being 0-8 against Federer, Tommy Robredo has played Federer quite tough at times on hard courts.

Federer hasn't been particularly sharp yet in the tournament but it's hard to pick Robredo when he's won just two sets in eight matches against him previously.

Robredo will pound the Federer backhand but without a real weapon to consistently hurt him, Federer will take this in straight sets.

Novak Djokovic vs Radek Stepanek

It finally appears that Djokovic is playing well after a few months of very mediocre tennis.

Djokovic holds a 3-1 record against Stepanek and they played a five-set marathon two years ago at the US Open, which went to a fifth set tiebreaker.

I don't think the match will be that close today but I think Stepanek will push this to a fourth set and make Djokovic earn this win.

Robin Soderling vs Nikolay Davydenko

By far, this is the most interesting of the four matches today.

Soderling owns a 4-2 career record against Davydenko but is only 1-2 against him on hard courts.

Soderling has become a household name since beating Rafael Nadal at the French and losing to Roger Federer in the finals.

Despite his heavy ground strokes, I'm leaning towards Davydenko to win a very close five-set match.

Fernando Verdasco vs John Isner

Isner is coming off the win of this career and will have the crowd behind him as he plays the very talented lefty from Spain.

For Isner to have any chance, he's going to have serve big and keep the points short.

Verdasco is a power player with a tremendous forehand. Expect Verdasco to use his power and topspin to move Isner around the court.

If Isner gets the lead in this match, he has a chance.

I don't think he will and I think Verdasco rolls in straight sets.

College Football Week One: More Questions Than Answers

Joseph Ciraco — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 21:36:33 -0400

Did anyone think Notre Dame against Michigan this week might be relevant or even interesting? We all knew that ND had two fantastic receivers but when did the offensive line learn to run block? When did the Michigan defensive players decide to start playing hard again? Did I miss the return of Lloyd Carr?
The second tier teams in the Big 12 are better than expected. Missouri crushed a poor Illinois team while Nebraska showed a lot more athleticism in drubbing FAU. Let's not forget about Kansas and that stellar offense and improved defense.
Even before Sam Bradford got hurt, where was the Sooner offense? We all know they replaced 80 percent of that offensive line and were without the best TE in college football but...that first half was mediocre. Oregon looked nothing like the team that we saw last year. Again, they returned only one offensive lineman but eight points?
Ohio St. is in "serious" trouble against USC. If the game was being played at USC, the Buckeyes would lose by 20. Since it's not, expect USC to win by 10.
Al Groh might not make it that far into this season if Virginia plays another game like they did Saturday. Losing to William & Mary is bad enough but seven turnovers?
LSU didn't look very impressive in beating Washington and Georgia barely played after the first quarter against Oklahoma St. Is the SEC over-hyped or what?
Lane Kiffin is cluless and arrogant. I guess Tennessee ran up the score and yards from scrimmage because he knows Florida is going to do the same to his team in a few weeks. Nothing like offsetting the stats, right?
Dan Hawkins might be following Al Groh to the unemployment line if he can't get his team to wake up after that horrendous first half against Colorado St. His defense allowed over 250 yards in the first half.

Young Nebraska Cornhuskers Look Good in Opener

Joseph Ciraco — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 18:18:04 -0400

Compared to last year, Husker nation has to be feeling pretty good about where the team is as we enter week the second week of the season.

Without a shred of doubt, we have better talent and depth on this team.

Despite that, we still face a lot of uncertainty.

Before we talk about the game, let's acknowledge the commitment of Harvey Jackson to Nebraska over the weekend.

A 6'2", 185-pound safety from Texas, he's a three-star prospect according to Rival, and graded out at 76 according to ESPN.

With the recent loss of defensive back Anterio Sloan in the recruiting class, this is a very nice commitment for the program.

The play of Roy Helu, Ndamukong Suh, and the offensive line were everything that was expected.

Helu rushed for 152 yards on just 16 carries, and the Huskers put up nearly 500 yards of offense despite the common early possession jitters.

Despite a really bad second half interception, Zac Lee played well in his first start. He completed 15 of 22 for over 200 yards and showed excellent mobility and arm strength.

The "surprise" of the game is that FAU allowed no sacks against a much heralded Nebraska front four.

Jared Crick played well, but Barry Turner and Pierre Allen were not factors almost throughout the game.

To be fair, Head Coach Bo Pelini kept the blitzing to the bare minimum, which allowed the FAU offensive line to focus on the Nebraska front four.

FAU ended up with just over 350 yards of offense, but aside from a few plays over 20 yards, Nebraska was able to slow down Rusty Smith to just 50 percent completion and just 164 yards.

The lingering injury to starting offensive lineman Keith Williams is a slight worry, but the blocked punt by FAU is even scarier. With Virginia Tech just two weeks away, the Huskers cannot afford to suffer any special team mistakes, especially on the road.

Overrall, this was a solid first game for a very young team. Touchdown catches by Menelik Holt and Curenski Gilleylen added to the confidence-building, but the schedule only gets harder from here on out.

Forego and Woodward Analysis

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 09:44:04 -0400

The Grade One Forego is the kind of race that fans and bettors absolutely love. This seven furlong race at Saratoga is completely puzzling on so many levels.

I see very little speed in this race. Horses like Riley Tucker, Driven by Success and Multidude have shown flashes of it but nothing beyond that.

Kodiak Kowboy will be the heavy favorite despite a mediocre performance last time out at Saratoga. If the betting line goes down to 2-1, I see no value at all.

Pyro is starting for just the second time in nearly 11 months but I don't think he has any chance despite having John Velazquez aboard. No wins in four starts at Saratoga is enough for me.

Ready's Echo is a very intriguing horse. Calvin Borel is aboard and the blinkers are off for this talented horse. I also like the two for two record at sevent furlongs.

I really like the 30-1 morning line longshot Mutlidude. His last race at Saratoga was incredibly impressive. The class jump is heavy but I think he can hit the board.

The winner of this race is going to be Law Enforcement. He covered 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:14 and change over Saratoga in early August.

Law Enforcement, Ready's Echo and Multidude.

WOODWARD:

As a true fan of horse racing, it's extremely disappointing to see Rachel Alexandra in this race and not the Travers.

The Travers was a more intriguing distance and the field was better but Steve Asmussen and ownership decided to play it "safe" and pick the Woodward.

The simple fact is this: If Rachel Alexandra runs well, she'll win by 10 lengths and this will be a boring race. She's not just a great filly but she's a great horse.

Since I like a longshot in the Forego, I'll be using her in my doubles with Law Enforcement but I'm also going to use a few horses in the Woodward as well.

I don't see any other horse in the Woodward that likes to run at the front end. If no other horse presses her, she will run six furlongs in 1:09 and never be touched in the stretch by Calvin Borel.

Da'Tara seems the one horse that could press her but based on his last start, don't expect much from this horse.

Bullsbay is one for one at Saratoga and coming off a very good win in the Whitney. I love the six furlong work last week in 1:14. This is a very dangerous horse despite the 10 pounds he's adding.

I'm going to pick Macho Again to "win."

I think Da'Tara and Rachel Alexandra will set the early pace.

I think Past the Point will begin to make a move around the six furlong pole and challenge both horses.

Da'Tara will begin to back up but Rachel Alexandra will not.

As they reach the top of the stretch, the crowd will roar as Rachel Alexandra will have the lead with Past the Point behind her.

Macho Again will be flying on the outside and pass both horses and beat them by a narrow margin.

Macho Again, Rachel Alexandra, and Past the Point.

If the race sets up anywhere close to what I think will happen, this race actually be exciting and a large daily double could be had.

Quentin Castille Dismissed by Nebraska

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 16:31:22 -0400

Just when it seems you have talent and depth at one position, things change quickly.

Ray Helu and Quentin Castille seemed like the perfect one-two punch for the 2009 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Bo Pelini announced today that Castille, the junior running back, was dismissed due to violation of team rules.

Castille made incredible strides last season, when he rushed for almost 500 yards on just over 100 carries.

Castille was one of the prime reasons that Nebraska was able to beat Clemson in the Gator Bowl, as he rushed for 125 yards on 18 carries.

Now, Nebraska must decide if redshirt freshmen Collins Okafor or Dontrayevous Robin are the solution for the No. 2 spot.

It wouldn't shock me one bit if true freshman Rex Burkhead was elevated to the No. 2 spot behind Helu.

Burkhead was a huge signing for Pelini and Nebraska last year. A four-star prospect according to Rivals, Burkhead seems to have the tools to be an impact player.

This is clearly a major blow for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Helu and Castille were expected to ease the burden from junior quarterback Zac Lee, who's never started a game before.

With the start of the season just two weeks away, it will be very interesting to see how the team responds to this adversity.

The team already lost starting tackle Javario Burkes recently and now Castille.

Hopefully, Helu and his often tweaked hamstring can stay healthy and lead Nebraska back to the Big 12 championship game.

Is Tiger Woods' Strategy Hurting Him in Majors?

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 19:18:20 -0400

Tiger Woods is the best player in the universe.

Tiger Woods will end up being the best player ever when he decides to retire in 10 years or so.

I think losing tomorrow will help him re-establish his dominance in the years to come.

No, I'm not writing about this because I'm bored.

No, I'm not writing about this because I hate Tiger Woods.

The simple fact is that Tiger Woods changes his style of play in the majors and it's going to cost him his 15th title tomorrow.

Not that long ago, Tiger could afford to play safe on the weekend when he was on the leader board because everyone else would simply implode.

That's no longer the case in the majors.

I totally agree with the famous cliche, "You can't win a tournament on Thursday but you can surely lose it."

As we've seen in the past, Tiger rarely shoots his best scores on Thursday because he's always willing to post a decent score.

Over the course of the next three days, Tiger will slowly creep up the leader board by attacking the short par fours and all the par fives.

This week, Tiger opened with a solid 67 but has now played two very cautious rounds.

Aside from the wonderful drive on the short par four 14th and the beautiful approach on 18, Tiger has played very conservatively the last 36 holes.

Players like Padraig Harrington, Ernie Els, and Y.E. Yang gained valuable strokes on Tiger today.

That insurmountable four-stroke lead is down to two, and if Tiger continues to hit long irons off the tee, I really believe he's going to be on the losing end tomorrow.

I'm not questioning his mental toughness on the putting surface.

I'm not doubting his incredible iron play.

I'm simply stunned that he's playing so close to the vest on so many holes.

Some holes are clearly not birdie chances—especially the long par threes and fours.

But Tiger is preventing himself from having better chances by being so cautious off the tee.

Can Tiger win tomorrow? Of course. He's the best player by miles.

Do I expect him to win tomorrow? Well, betting against him is never wise but if there was a time to do it, I believe it's tomorrow.

Harrington will not be intimidated.

I'll take the guy from Ireland in a reversal of last week's ending.

Saratoga Predictions: Macho Again Will Beat Commentator

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 10:04:14 -0400

The feature race today at Saratoga is the Grade One Whitney, which features defending champion Commentator.

Commentator won this race last year with an incredible 120 Beyer rating.

He also has four wins in six career starts at this historic track.

However, today is the day that the eight-year-old gelding is defeated.

Unlike last year, Commentator will not be allowed to set the pace by himself. Expect Tizway to set the early fractions and dictate the pace of this $750,000 race.

Tizway is a pretty good horse but he's only one for five at nine furlongs, so I don't like his chances to hold on.

Smooth Air should be the stalker in this race and has never been off the board in three career starts at the distance.

I absolutely love his July 25 work, where he covered six furlongs in 1:11 flat. I also like the fact he has the rail and a slight weight advantage. Smooth Air is a very dangerous horse.

I would like to see Macho Again win.

Yes, I just wrote Macho Again.

The race just sets up ideally for him.

Tizway and Commentator should be first and second for the first mile of the race.

Smooth Air will make his move at the top of the stretch and pass a tiring Tizway.

The big closer, Macho Again, will pass both Smooth Air and Commentator with less than a furlong left.

Macho Again is proven at Saratoga, with a nice win last year on a good track. He's also three for six at the distance and I think he'll go off 4-1 or better.

Macho Again, Smooth Air and Commentator.

Federer/Nadal: By The Numbers

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 12:17:35 -0400

Roger Federer is not just the best player of this era, but he is the best player ever.

A lot of critics will argue that Federer might have the most Grand Slam titles now but his record against rival Rafael Nadal offsets that.

I beg to differ.

I will admit, Nadal is the perfect opponent for Federer. The heavy topspin to the Federer backhand is just one of the many difficulties that Nadal poses.

The current head to head record stands at 13-7 for Rafael Nadal.

At first glance, critics might be right about Federer's place but let's look at the numbers a little closer before we make a final decision.

Rafael Nadal has won four of the last five French Open titles. Until his recent loss to Robin Soderling, Nadal was considered one of, if not the best, clay court player ever.

With a career record of 179-16 on clay-with 25 titles, he's clearly the best clay court player of this era and can be mentioned with Borg.

Of the 13 losses to Nadal, nine of those have come on clay.

On hard court and grass, Federer is 5-4 against his arch rival.

Even though I root for Federer, I have nothing but the utmost respect for Nadal. Not just how he plays on the court but also how he handles himself off the court.

Nadal has become a much better complete player over the last two years.

We've seen that from his first loss at Wimbledon to Federer through his victory over Federer in this year's Australian Open.

However, Nadal is just 167-53 on hard courts. While that record isn't bad, Nadal's injuries and "poor" play during the hard court season has often denied us more matches with Federer.

Federer is "only" 139-42 on clay, 88-12 on grass and 380-82 on hard court.

I'm taking nothing away from the last two wins by Nadal at Grand Slams against Federer. Federer served poorly but played well and lost 9-7 in that epic 5th set against Nadal.

In the Australian Open this year, Federer played a terrible 5th set and deserved to lose to Nadal.

In the end, Federer has the most Grand Slam titles and has won each of the majors.

Federer has a few more good years in him and Nadal has quite a few more too (hopefully the knee injuries won't continue to plague him).

Hopefully we'll get 20 more match-ups between these two great players and more will be played on anything but clay.

Federer doesn't get the credit he deserves for being the second best clay court player of this era. When the guy who is number one, might be the best ever, where is the shame in that?

Can Benny The Bull Repeat at Calder?

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 10:21:04 -0400

Last year, Benny the Bull rallied in the stretch to win Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder.

After an ankle injury nearly ended his career, Benny the Bull returned in late June and finished a strong second in his first race in almost 11 months.

Now, the talented sprinter looks to repeat today at Calder against a talented field.

Ikigai is currently the second choice at 3:1 and is 4-for-5 at Calder. The only issue with this speedy horse is he's win less in his last three starts and his forms looks mediocre.

Yesbyjimminy is 11 for 21 at Calder but has also struggled of late. He's also win less in his last three starts.

Benny the Bull is currently at 6:5 but at that price, I don't see any value.

I'm picking the pure speed horse to win this $350,000 Grade 2.

How's Your Halo is currently 4:1 and is coming off an impressive performance on June 13, where he dominated from start to finish.

Benny the Bull will be flying at the end but the six pound weight advantage for How's Your Halo should help him hold off the closing favorite as they approach the wire.

How's Your Halo over Benny the Bull and Ikigai.

ManOWar Grade1 at Belmont

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 10:07:33 -0400

A relatively small but talented field is scheduled to run in the 1 3/8 mile feature today at Belmont.

The early favorite appears to be Gio Ponti, who is three for four on the turf at Belmont. This talented Christopher Clemente horse has never run 11 furlongs before but should have no problem handling this distance.

The horse to catch is Midships, who is trained by Robert Frankel and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza. Midships is coming off a very impressive win in the Grade1 at Hollywood on June 6th.

The outcome of this race will be dictated by the early fractions that longshots Musketier and Marsh Side force Midships to run.

If Midships can run modest time for both six and eight furlongs, he'll have a real chance to hold off the late runners.

If the pace is fast, I expect the stretch to be jam packed with late closers while the speed horses will be fading.

The horse that I like to win this $500,000 race is actually Dancing Forever. This six year ran an excellent race on May 31st, when he finished third.

Despite not winning, Dancing Forever had plenty of late energy and the added two furlongs should help this talented horse.

This is truly a great betting race.

I'm going to put Dancing Forever on top of Musketier (who I think will stalk the pace and could win), Midships, Gio Ponti and Quijano (6-for-6 at the distance).

The only horses that really don't have a shot are Marsh Side and Interpatation.

At 20:1, Musketier is a fantastic play but due to the heavy speed in the race, a closer has to be the pick here.

Wimbeldon: Men's Fourth-Round Preview/Picks

Joseph Ciraco — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:36:42 -0400

No. 2 Roger Federer vs. No. 13 Robin Soderling: The rematch of the French Open happens in round four— the same round that saw Soderling beat Nadal. Federer has dominated Soderling. Despite the change in surface, which should help Soderling, the pick is Federer in four sets.

No. 6 Andy Roddick vs. No. 20 Tomas Berdych: Which Tomas Berdych will show up? Roddick is often ridiculed for not being able to win another major, but he should advance here. These two have split four previous meetings. Expect a lot of aces and quick points. Roddick in five.

No. 7 Fernando Verdasco vs. No. 22 Ivo Karlovic: These two have played three very close matches, with Karlovic winning 2. They've played one match on grass, with Ivo Karlovic winning in three sets (10-8 in the third set tiebreaker). This will be a battle of the big server against the big groundstrokes of Verdasco. Karlovic in five.

No. 23 Radek Stepanek vs. Lleyton Hewitt: I haven't seen Hewitt play this well in a long time and I don't see a letdown against Stepanek. Hewitt is 2-0 against Stepanek, and even though they haven't played against each other in over five years, I like Hewitt to march on. Hewitt in four.

No. 29 Igor Andreev vs. Tommy Haas: Another rejuvenated player, Tommy Haas is making yet another deep run in a major. After blowing a two-set lead against Federer at the French, Haas has maintained his form and beat Djokovic two weeks ago. However, after a long match, I like Andreev and his big forehand to sneak by Haas. Andreev in five.

No. 3 Andy Murray vs. No. 19 Stanislas Wawrinka: Murray versus a Swiss. Didn't we all expect this to happen? Oh..he's playing the other Swiss. Andy Murray is 4-3 against Wawrinka and he's playing with a lot of confidence at the moment. I expect Wawrinka to play well but I like Murray. Murray in four.

No. 8 Gilles Simon vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero: These two have never played before, and Simon has finally found his game after some early struggles. Ferrero is a former No. 1 player and I like this matchup for him. This is the upset special. Ferrero in four.

No. 4 Novak Djokovic vs. Dudi Sela: The easiest match to pick in the fourth round. Djokovic is just finding his form and should be able to dictate points with ease against Sela. Djokovic in three.

Zenyatta & Rachel Alexandra Running Today!

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 10:52:24 -0400

As much as the entire racing industry wants it, the two best female horses in the world are running today, but not against each other.

Zenyatta, the undefeated west coast champion looks to win her 11th race in a row today at Hollywood.

Rachel Alexandra returns to the track today, for the first time since her epic victory in the Preakness Stakes.

Zenyatta faces two stiff challenges today in her quest to remain undefeated. First, she will be carrying an amazing 129 pounds today in the 1 1/8 mile Grade1 Vanity.

The second "issue" could be the lack of speed in the race. Several horses have front running speed but don't expect any of them to press the pace and allow Zenyatta to get the fast fractions that will help her win yet another race.

If any horse in this race can beat Zenyatta, I think longshot Hot n' Dusty can do it. She's a solid closer who is one for two at Hollywood and should like the added distance. She's currently 30:1.

Rachel Alexandra is the 1:5 favorite today at Belmont, in the Grade1 Mother Goose. Unfortunately, only four other horses are entered in this $300,000 1 1/8 mile race.

The only horse that has any chance of challenging Rachel Alexandra is Flashing, who will be ridden by Javier Castellano.

Flashing, who is currently 4:1, is one for one at Belmont and had an incredible work of 59 seconds on Jund 20th. She will challenge the Preakness Champion from the start of the race and could pull off the upset.

Expect both to win today.

When will these two champions meet up to settle the debate about who's better?

The unfortunate answer is: It might not happen.

Rachel Alexandra's owner Jess Jackson seems reluctant to run his champion on any surface other than dirt.

Jackson made this comment recently "I just don't want to risk her. You may not think it's a risk, but I saw what Curlin did and how he struggled, and I saw four or five other horses that raced on plastic and they struggled. If it's a dirt horse, it's a dirt horse."

Let me simply respond to that by giving you a simple fact: Rachel Alexandria has already run on the "plastic" surface and ran six furlongs in 1:09 and won convincingly.

I personally feel that Rachel Alexandra would struggle to beat Zenyatta. Both are wonderful horses but Zenyatta is the most talented horse on the planet right now.

Both are running today and both should win. Barring an injury, both should run 2-3 more times this year but it looks like we're going to be denied a chance to see a race that includes both.

Sometimes life just isn't fair.

Paul Casey: Biggest Disappointment 2009 US Open

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 16:12:29 -0400

Now that the first two rounds of the US Open have been completed at Bethpage, it didn't take me more than 10 seconds for me to realize that Paul Casey was the biggest disappointment over the first two rounds.

Tiger Woods is 11 strokes back and Phil Mickelson raised expections by getting to three under par at one point, but it's Paul Casey by a mile.

Casey was a trendy pick by a lot of experts. After winning his first title at the Shell Houston Open recently, Casey ascended to the third spot in the world rankings.

Let's look at just how poorly Paul Casey played during his 36 holes at Bethpage.

Two rounds of 75 are never good for a player as talented as Casey, but his play was downright awful.

Casey hit just 15 of 28 fairways and just 20 of 36 GIR. Those stats aren't even his worst: 64 putts during those two rounds.

Coming into this week, Casey was 22nd in both scoring per round, at 70.12, and Greens in regulation, at 68.25. Casey is also fifth in birdies per round on the PGA tour this year but failed to record a single birdie in either round.

Even though Ernie Els and Padrig Harrington are household names and former major champions, neither was expected to contend like Casey.

Paul Casey is clearly the biggest disappointment so far, and based on his track record in majors, maybe we shouldn't expect him to contend all that often. That's simply frustrating!

Who To Root For? Federer Or Mickelson?

Joseph Ciraco — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 18:50:18 -0400

I don't know many people who like tennis and golf. Despite that fact, I love both sports quite a bit.

My wife asked me this morning "would you rather Federer regain his title at Wimbledon and pass Pete or Phil win the Open at Bethpage?"

I'm a huge Federer fan. I already considered him to be the greatest player to ever play the game and I've only increased my passion on this topic since his recent French Open title.

The problem is that I'm also a die hard Lefty fan. I'll watch any tournament on TV but when Phil is playing, I have pgatour.com running to see his every shot.

I already consider Federer to be the best ever and it would be absolutely satisfying if he were to pass Pete Sampras at Wimbledon by winning his 15th grand slam title.

Beating Rafael Nadal would have been icing on the cake but Raffa has withdrawn due to the knee problems that he's recently suffered from.

Mickelson is again the second best player in the game and that's nothing to be ashamed about. Tiger Woods will end up the greatest player, so there is no shame in second.

As most of you know, Amy Mickelson was recently diagnosed with breast cancer and Left will be putting away the clubs again after the Open at Bethpage.

Wouldn't it be the story of a lifetime if Phil could hoist that silver trophy and bring it to Amy during her recovery from major surgery in July?

To add the cherry on top, any Mickelson win in a major is a loss for Tiger. I don't root for Tiger but I completely respect his talent and passion for the game.

Federer seems to have a somewhat easy draw with Novak Djokovic possibly being the first major test... and that would come in the semi-finals.

As for Phil, he's not just playing against the other players and the course. Mother nature has and will make the course a test unlike any other.

I want to see Roger Federer claim number 15 and win yet another Wimbledon title but not if it means Mickelson can't win his fourth major title and his first US Open.

Why did my wife have to make me choose?

Right now, Mickelson is +1 after five holes in the second round. He's 7 strokes behind Mike Weir but he's far from being out of contention.

Federer begins his quest in a few days and by then, I'll know if "my compromise" has paid off or whether I'm just off my rocker.

Grade One SFoster at Churchill Downs

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 10:19:50 -0400

Julien Laparoux tries to guide Einstein to another victory today in the 1 1/8th Grade One at Churchill Downs.

Einstein is the 2:1 morning line favorite and is clearly the horse to beat in the eight-horse field.

Alphabet Magic and Finallymade it are the two speed horses will dictate the early fractions for this race.

Alphabet Magic is 30:1 but has one victory in one career start at Churchill. Losing sevens pounds will only help his chances but he's never gone this gone before and that should be really hinder his chances.

Finallymade it is 8:1 but I also don't like his chances to win this race. He's two for four at the distance but 11 of his 16 victories have been at Calder and he's never run on this track before, so, I don't see him prevailing.

The two main rivals appear to be Arson Squad and Researcher. Arson Squad has won half his six starts at nine furlongs and should love the speed duel that will develop. Researcher will also be within striking distance as he stalks the pace.

I expect both of these horses to have a chance to win the race. Richard Dutrow has Arson Squad working extrememly well for this race and with Garret Gomez aboard, this is a very dangerous horse.

The horse I actually like is Asiatic Boy. Kiaran McKaughlin has a very hot barn lately and I love that Alan Garcia is picking this mount up.

He's currently 7:2 and might go off slightly higher. I absolutely love his five furlong work at Belmont on June 7, where he covered five furlongs in under one minute.

Asiatic Boy will edge Einstein and win this Grade One at Churchill.

Feature Race Review at Hollywood: Grade 2 On June 13th, 2009

Joseph Ciraco — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 19:16:33 -0400

The Grade2 at Hollywood features a lot of speed. When a field of 12 has this much speed, the race should be exciting.

Rail Trip is the morning line favorite right now at 8:5. This four year old has won all, but one of this career six starts but he's coming off a second place finish in his last race and stretching out yet again.

Awesome Gem is the second choice at 4:1 and has a win and a second in two career starts at Hollywood. Despite that nice record, Awesome Gem is 0-4 at 9 furlongs.

Ball Four is a very interesting horse in this race. He's currently an incredible 10:1 despite beating the favorite in there last meeting. He will also go to the front and he has three wins in nine career starts at 1/8th miles.

Daktoa Phone is currently 6:1 but Rafael Bejarano is aboard this talented horse for Jerry Hollendorfer. Dakota Phone ran the best race of his life on May 9th, when he closed like a rocket and finished third by less than two lengths at Hollywood on May 9th. The extra 1/2 furlong might be just perfect for this horse.

The horse I like to win this race is 10:1 and should also coming on late in deep stretch. Aitcho won his last race at 1 1/16th at Hollywood on April 26th and won in just over 1:41. This horse is losing 8 pounds from that race and even though he's stepping up in class significantly, I like the long shot to pull it off.

1st: Aitcho 2nd: Awesome Gem 3rd: Ball Four

John Daly: Will He Ever Win Again?

Joseph Ciraco — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:36:28 -0400

As much as I'd prefer to write about the return of Phil Mickelson this week, the player making the return from a longer hiatus is John Daly.

Daly returns after Tim Finchem and the PGA Tour suspended him for six months due to various off the course incidents. The suspension has been denied by the PGA Tour but confirmed by Daly himself.

What should we expect from Mr. Grip It And Rip It?

During his PGA Tour suspension, Daly played numerous tournaments in Europe and even finished a very respectable second. But don't be fooled—that was the week of the Players Championship and the Italian Open had a very mediocre field.

Daly looks like he's lost at least 30 pounds, but he's going to need more than better health to compete and then win on the tour.

For numerous years, Daly led the tour in driving distance, but now the average distance off the tee is slightly over 286 yards. That means that the one time distance advantage for Daly is now gone.

The last time Daly was even in contention on the PGA Tour was in 2005 when, at the American Express Championship, he missed a putt of about three feet and lost to Tiger Woods.

At 12:54 PM EDT on Thursday, we're going to see whether Daly can still play.

On this very course last year, Daly was terrible in the second round and shot an 81 and missed the cut.

I'm not sure if he'll play that poorly again, but I don't expect Daly to be in contention this week or any other week. At 43, he's still got the talent to make the top 125 in money earned, but I don't see him winning again.

Hopefully, his golf will provide more conversation amongst us fans and not more Hooters incidents and losing millions at casinos.

Summer Bird Wins Belmont Stakes

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 20:02:06 -0400

What just happened in the Belmont Stakes? Upsets happen and races unfold oddly but nothing in that race made any sense to me based on the history of those horses.

Dunkirk was supposed to stalk the pace setter but he was the one who ran very quick fractions of 47 and change and six furlong at just under 1:13.

Charitable Man was supposed to be pressing the lead but he was the one a few lengths back stalking the leader.

Mine That Bird made a move much earlier than anticipated and ending up being out kicked by a horse that went off 11-1.

Calvin Borel is going to take quite a bit of heat for what appeared to be a very shotty ride aboard the favorite. There was no need to move Mine That Bird on the far turn based on the previous races.

Summer Bird paid $25.80 and ran the race in almost two seconds faster than last year's winner.

Kent Desormeaux is now "off the hook" after last year, when he basically stopped Big Brown at the top of the stretch and galloped him home.

What happened today makes no sense but that's horse racing. When we think we know something, we usually don't have a clue.

The only thing I'll stick to knowing is that Zenyatta is the best filly on the planet and I can't wait for her to run again.

Upset Special at Hollywood G1CWhtghm on June 6!

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 10:02:25 -0400

Six horses are entered today at Hollywood Park for the Grade1 CWhtghm on the turf. The race is 10 furlongs and I see a big upset in this race.

Midships is the morning line favorite at 9:5 and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza. Expect this multiple Grade2 winner to have the lead for as long as posible.

Liquidity is a very interesting horse in this race. He's never been on the turf before but is a speed horse and is losing 12 pounds from his last race in which he won from start to finish.

I'm not sure this speedy horse can handle the distance but he will push the favorite into running slightly faster fractions which will not help Midships.

I like long shot Globetrotter (8:1) to come off the pace and hold off fast charging Artiste Royal to win this $300,000 race.

In his last race, Globetrotter covered the nine furlongs in 1:46 from off the pace and is losing an additional six pounds. He'll have to fight to hold off Artiste Royal but I think he will.

Joe Talamo will guide Globetrotter home just ahead of Artiste Royal and a fading Midships to win the feature race today at Hollywood. Hopefully, the odds at post won't be any worse than they are now.

Belmont Stakes Preview

Joseph Ciraco — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 19:34:05 -0400

When I bought the daily race form today, I really thought the Belmont Stakes was going to be a 2 horse race-between front running Charitable Man and late charging Mine That Bird.

Now that I've handicapped the race, I see a few horses that could win the final leg of the triple crown. Who wins will depend on both the condition of the track tomorrow and the early fractions.

Charitable Man should be on the lead from the time the gate opens. The only other speed horse is Miner's Escape but based on previous races, he doesn't have the natural speed to compete with Alan Garcia and Charitable Man.

Based on his race at Belmont on May 9th, Charitable Man is capable of running the first mile of this triple crown race in just over 1:34. That should put Charitable Man in wonderful position as they come around the far turn at Belmont.

This is where I feel Dunkirk will make the first move at the front runner. I'm throwing out Dunkirk's performance at the Kentucky Derby. When a horse stumbles and is steadied in a 20 horse race, you can forget about that horse winning 99% of the time.

If Dunkirk can run like he did in the Florida Derby, where he ran 9 furlongs in just over 1:47, he will be in contention to win.

As the come to the top of the stretch, Charitable Man and Dunkirk should be a few lengths ahead of the field. That won't last though-Mine That Bird, Flying Private and even Brave Victory should be mounting late charges.

I think Charitable Man will hold on and defeat both Mine That Bird and Dunkirk to win the Belmont Stakes.

Charitable Man is 2 for 2 at Belmont and won his only race on an off track, so those are two very important things to take into consideration.

Mine That Bird should also love any moisture on the track and the added distance but without a lot of speed to push Charitable Man, the early fractions should be very modest.

I really like Dunkirk to run a big race. This $3.7 million dollar buy has been a bit of a disappointment so far, but he could steal the spotlight and it wouldn't shock me at all.

If you're betting this race, you should be thrilled because you should get a very good price on any horse, even the favorites. Both Charitable Man and Mine That Bird should go off around 3:1, which is very fair considering only 10 horses are entered and a few really have no chance.

Charitable Man will make it 3 for 3 at Belmont and win the Belmont Stakes but it wouldn't shock me if Dunkirk passed Charitable Man with 100 yards to go and won.

Fernando Gonzalez Against Robin Soderling: Analysis

Joseph Ciraco — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:06:53 -0400

Fernando Gonzalez and Robin Soderling will be exchanging heavy ground strokes for a chance to get one step closer to the finals of the French Open.

Soderling generated the most buzz so far with his four-set win of Rafael Nadal, and his dominance over Nikolay Davydenko today was just as impressive. Losing only five games to the 11th ranked player in the world is simply stunning.

Fernando Gonzalez finished off Andy Murray in another superb effort. Gonzalez had 49 winners and just 24 unforced errors in overwhelming Murray.

These two talented players have faced each other seven times, with Gonzalez winning the last four matches—two of them on clay.

The matches have been extremely close, with Gonzalez winning six of the eight sets but two of them being tiebreakers.

I believe the edge in this match goes to Gonzalez, even though Soderling is playing the best tennis of his life.

It's not that I don't think Soderling can continue his fine play and win; it's just that I think Gonzalez matches up very well with him and will win a very close match.

Fernando Gonzalez plays to his strength (most of the time). He will slice the backhand cross court over and over until he opens the court up. Out of nowhere, Gonzalez will run around the backhand and hit a very heavy topspin forehand down the line. The amount of topspin increases his margin for error.

Soderling will not be playing just another top player. He will be playing a very aggressive player who can be patient when the situation calls for it and can win points quickly when the opportunity arises.

Unlike Nadal and Davydenko, who both played passively at times, Gonzalez will not hesitate to dictate the play.

Soderling has played wonderful tennis at Roland Garros and beat the previously undefeated Nadal, but Gonzalez will win this thrilling four-set match.

Can Nebraska Snag Gabbert?

Joseph Ciraco — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 19:08:53 -0400

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are on the verge of returning to glory.

Bo Pelini has mobilized the fan base, and after a solid 9-4 season last year, things are looking much better for the famed program.

To take the next step and compete with the elite teams in not just the BCS but the Big 12, Nebraska is going to have to get commitments from the top talent in high school.

Tyler Gabbert is the QB that Nebraska needs, and it appears that he will be taking an unofficial visit on Wednesday. According to Rivals recruiting, Gabbert is a top 15 pro-style quarterback and the type of player that Nebraska needs.

Ironically, it was only two years ago that his brother Blaine Gabbert de-committed from Nebraska after Bill Callahan was fired and signed with rival Missouri.

The Cornhuskers already have four verbal commits from very talented players, including blue chip prospect Andrew Rodriguez from Aurora Nebraska. The Huskers could be on the verge of a very talented class.

Can Bo Pelini and OC Shawn Watson close the deal on Gabbert, or will he spur the Huskers like his brother? If that happens, watch the Huskers go all out for Sean Robinson from Illinois.

Gabbert could be the kind of player that puts Nebraska back on the map, and this could be week it starts to happen.

I think it happens and I think it's a great fit for both sides.

Why Gael Monfils Will Upset Roger Federer

Joseph Ciraco — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 18:50:29 -0400

You probably think I'm crazy, ignorant, or rooting against Roger Federer for one of many possible reasons. Let me be perfectly clear—I've grown to like Federer as much as any player, including Andre Agassi.

If you look at the simplest numbers, Gael Monfils has only a small chance to win. Monfils is only 118-89 in his career and just 19-8 this year. That's not very impressive for the 10th-ranked player in the world, but we have to take other factors into account.

Federer has looked very mediocre in his last three matches. While that's somewhat unfair to point out, we also know he's not playing his best tennis. Tommy Haas won more sets today than he's won in the last five years against Federer—and we all know Haas is no clay court specialist.

Last year's match between Monfils and Federer was very close, with Federer prevailing in four sets. Monfils is 0-4 against Federer, but the aura surrounding Roger isn't the same anymore. Federer will have his supporters in the crowd, but you have to assume that Monfils will have the majority behind him—which should help him with nerves.

Federer seemed to locate his forehand again today, but he also needs to increase his serve percentage to around 65 and return better. Against Haas today, Federer continually struggled with very short returns, allowing Haas to dictate points.

Monfils will need to start well, because once Roger has confidence, we know what happens. I'd like nothing better than to see Roger with the winner's trophy come Sunday, but I'm very skeptical about that happening.

Wouldn't it be ironic if Federer completed the career grand slam on Sunday, regained the Wimbledon title, and then Rafael Nadal somehow won the US Open and completed his own career slam?

I hope I'm wrong—very wrong—but something tells me that the title might slip out of his grasp.

Bejarano Looks To Steal the Grade One at Hollywood

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 30 May 2009 10:49:39 -0400

Eleven horses are entered today in the Grade One Gamely at Hollywood. The race is nine furlongs and the favorite is Black Mamba, who is 3:1. Half the field has a legitimate chance to win but I really like front running Tuscan Evening to hold off the closers and win this $250,000 race.

Tuscan Evening ran an incredible race on May 10th at Hollywood. She won the 1 1/16th race in under 1:41 while leading from start to finish. Diamond Diva is the only other speed in the race and has two wins in four career starts at Hollywood.

I really believe these two horses have the ability to create significant distance between them and the rest of the field. If they ran mild fractions of six furlongs in 1:11 or so, they should have plenty left to remain strong during the stretch run. Anything faster will really hurt them and help the numerous closers make late charges.

Magical Fantasy, Lemon Chiffon and Black Mamba are all serious closers and should be making big moves as they approach the top of the stretch. Magical Fantasy beat Black Mamba only five weeks ago but that was at 10 furlongs and Magical Fantasy is adding seven pounds today.

I'm very curious to see how Toque de Queda runs today. This Bobby Frankel filly ran a very solid third five weeks ago in a Grade Two at Santa Anita but had a terrible trip that day. She was a beaten favorite that day but could go off at more than 15:1 today.

I like the morning line 10:1 Tuscan Evening to win this exciting race. She won her only start at Hollywood and she should be able to handle the extra furlong today. I think several horses can finish anywhere between second and seventh. The early race fractions will have a significant impact on the order of finish.

First: Tuscan Evening, Second: Black Mamba, Third: Diamond Diva, and Fourth: Toque de Queda in about 1:47.

May 30th SandsPnt Grade Two Race at Belmont

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 30 May 2009 10:06:15 -0400

A field of seven horses are entered today in the Grade2 turf feature at Belmont and the clear favorite is 9:5 Gozzip girl. With jockey Kent Desormeaux aboard, this talented filly looks to win her second race in a row on the turf.

The only speed horse in this one-and-one-eighth mile race is Sapphire Sky. She should be able to race at the pace she wants. The issues with this David Donk trained horse is that she's never never run on the turf before and she's never gone this far. Expect her to lead the field for the first mile or so before fading.

Bluegrass Princess should be right behind Sapphire Sky for most of the race. The one negative for this filly is that she's win less in three starts on the turf but she's finished third in all of them, so she should be in the thick of things at the end of the race.

Fast Tigress is the real unknown when handicapping this race. She's been unable to beat Gozzip Girl in the last two races but in January, she easily beat her in a super 1:41 despite stumbling at the start.

She clearly has the ability to win this race based on that start but is win less in her last three races since that.

In the end, this looks like a two horse race as the finish line approaches. Gozzip Girl and Magical Affair should be neck and neck as they approach the wire. Gozzip Girl has won at nine furlongs, while Magical Affair hasn't. With that being said, I like Magical Affair to win this race.

The order of finish should be: Magical Affair, Gozzip Girl and Fast Tigress. Fast Tigress is the only horse in this field win a win at Belmont and that shouldn't be overlooked. At 6:1, she's a great value but she'll have to beat two better horses today and I'm not sure she will.

Can Ventura Beat the Boys at Hollywood Today?

Joseph Ciraco — Mon, 25 May 2009 09:58:54 -0400

A field of eight is entered today at Hollywood Park in the feature race, which includes 3:5 favorite Hyperbaric and female sensation Ventura. If you look at the morning line, you probably did a double take as Ventura is an incredible 15-1 in this Grade One turf race.

Ventura is wonderful horse but she's struggled to beat the boys when she's raced them and today looks to be another tough task as she faces a very strong field of horses in her first race in over 45 days.

In theory, the race sets up well for the closer Ventura but the first problem is that the horse on the lead, Hyperbaric, is cutting back in distance and should have no problem with the eight-furlong race.

In his last four races in California, Hyperbaric has won all four and looked sharp in all of them. Breaking from the rail, Hyperbaric should be able to get to the front and dictate the race despite speed from both Storm Military and Thorn Song.

As usual, the pace of the race will really influence the outcome. If Hyperbaric is able to run mild splits for two, four, and six furlongs, he should be in very good shape to hold off the late chargers. If the pace is pushed by the longshots running with Hyperbaric, the closers will have a distinct advantage.

Hyperbaric should be in complete control despite any fractions until they turn for him and that's when I expect to see a big move from both Ventura and Whatsthescript. Dixie Chatter is another closer but the additional weight in this race will really hurt him, so I'm going to leave him out.

The last two furlongs should be filled with action as Hyperbaric will be trying to hold off the two speedy closers. Ventura should go off at least 10-1 and it's the sort of value that you really can't pass up but I don't think she will get it done today.

Whatsthescript will just catch Hyperbaric at the wire and win his third race in four career starts at Hollywood. Hyperbaric will hold off Ventura by less than half a length for second and the remainder of the field will be a few lengths behind.

This should be a great race.

Belmont Met Mile Preview

Joseph Ciraco — Mon, 25 May 2009 09:14:26 -0400

It seems that just about every major handicapper is picking Bribon to win today's Met Mile at Belmont racetrack. But I'm not one of those people.

I definitely respect Alan Garcia and his very talented horse, but this is how I see the race unfolding:

If you want to see very good horses with exceptional speed at eight furlongs, this is the event for you. Accredit, Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and Driven by Success will all be vying for the early lead when the gate opens.

These four horses, along with the stalker Smooth Air will be battling for position for the first four furlongs. Expect the time for the half-mile to be run in a very quick 45. As the group goes around the far turn, the "good" horses will begin to feel the pressure from the "very good" horses, and the race will be in full throttle.

As good as Bribon is, I really like Mr. Fantasy to hold him off. The stretch run in this race is going to be absolutely spectacular because of the talented but inconsistent horses like The Roundhouse and Mr. Sidney.

Mr. Fantasy is my pick to narrowly hold off numerous horses as they hit the wire. In his last race at Aqueduct, Mr. Fantasy won the Grade III Withers in 1:34 and chance while carrying 116 pounds. Today, he's carrying only 109 pounds, and I love his workout at Belmont on May 16; he ran five furlongs in under 61 seconds.

Bribon is the class of the race and has also won four of nine starts at this distance, but he hasn't put together two great starts in over a year. Still, his monster win at Belmont last June is something that shouldn't be forgotten.

I really like a lot of horses to finish right behind the top two. I'm going to pick a long shot for third even though he's taking a huge step up in class; I think Famous Patriot can grab a share based on his two wins in two starts at Belmont and his two wins in three starts at a mile.

This race shapes as potentially thrilling, and it wouldn't completely shock me if the race was won in near track-record time.

My final prediction: Mr. Fantasy, Bribon, and then either Famous Patriot, Smooth Air, or Mr. Sidney in under 1 minute and 34 seconds.

Can Zenyatta Make It 10-for-10 Today at Hollywood Park?

Joseph Ciraco — Sat, 23 May 2009 09:32:03 -0400

Most people would argue that the best filly in racing is Rachel Alexandria, but I simply don't agree. Take the opportunity today, racing fans, to watch Zenyatta at Hollywood Park in the feature race, and you might jump to my side.

The race sets up perfectly for her, and as the current 3:5 favorite, she has the public expecting yet another dazzling performance. Let's take a look at how the race should unfold:

Gambler's Justice should be at the front when the gate opens and will dictate the pace along with Taste's Sis and Champagne Eyes. The early fractions should be blistering, but don't expect to see Zenyatta anywhere near the lead at this point; in fact, she will probably be five to 10 lengths behind.

As the horses reach three-quarters of a mile, expect the race to truly begin. I expect a time of about 1:09 or so, and the leaders should begin to slow just a bit. The closers will all be making big moves, and Zenyatta will obviously be one of them.

The stretch run should be full of excitement because Life is Sweet, ridden by Garrett Gomez, is also an exceptional closer and fantastic horse. She's won at a mile and 16 in 1:41 and change. I also think Allicansayis Wow will be making a huge charge and will be in contention; her last race was her first in the U.S., and she won in 1:42 despite clicking heels in the race.

Despite the fact that both of these horses can win, I don't think either will outrun Zenyatta. If she runs her normal race, she'll finish the race in around one minute and 40 seconds and hold off both horses by less than two lengths.

The order of finish will be Zenyatta, Allicansayis Wow, and then Life is Sweet.