Bleacher Report - Articles by Brendan Monaghan

Monaghan's NBA Playoff Predictions

Brendan Monaghan — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 22:57:04 -0400

Western Conference

(1) Los Angeles vs. (8) Utah

This series appears to be a classic mismatch, and it should be. The Lakers have been nothing if not consistent all season long, storming out to a 21-3 record to start, and finishing by winning 12 of their final 15.

Utah, on the other hand, has faded fast, losing seven of their last nine, and winning just four of their last 12 road games. The Wall Street Journal, however, points out that Utah has been very good in games following at least a day’s break, which would threaten to prolong the series. I’ll be charitable and give the Jazz one.

Prediction: Lakers 4, Jazz 1

(2) Denver vs. (7) New Orleans

Since the rather one-sided trade that sent Chauncey Billups to the Mile High City for Allen Iverson, the Nuggets have played well over their heads, winning a division title for only the second time since the 1980’s and tying the franchise (NBA) record for regular season wins.

They’ve yet to prove, however, that they can win a playoff series without George Karl on the opposing bench.

Last year’s overachievers, the New Orleans Hornets, are back in the playoffs, and Chris Paul is still one of the premier players in the league.

The Nuggets won a single game in each of their four previous playoff appearances before being swept by the Lakers last year. This year they’ll do better: they’ll win two.

Prediction: Hornets 4, Nuggets 2

(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Dallas

The Spurs were given up for dead just weeks ago when Manu Ginobili was injured and knocked out of the playoffs. Instead, the oldest team in the league won the most competitive division in basketball—and lucked out by drawing a weaker team of Mavericks than the Republican presidential ticket.

Few would consider the Mavs a serious contender this season, and they ultimately won’t put up much of a fight against the battle-hardened Spurs. All things considered, a deep playoff run this year under these circumstances might be almost as big an accomplishment as their NBA titles.

Prediction: Spurs 4, Mavericks 2

(4) Portland vs. (5) Houston

Few teams are as hot right now as the Portland Trail Blazers. The team is back in the playoffs for the first time in six seasons and is led by an exciting nucleus of young talent. Add onto that eight-straight Rose Garden wins against the Lakers, and you have the makings of what could be a dangerous team.

Conventional wisdom, however, suggests the Blazers are a year away, but that won’t stop them from making a playoff run this season.

They couldn’t ask for a better opponent either, the Houston TMac’s, who have a well-known history of first round chokes. The Rockets have, however, dominated the Blazers at home this season. Assuming Portland holds serve, a lone road win will be all they need.

Prediction: Blazers 4, Rockets 2

Eastern Conference

(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Detroit

Proving they’ve jumped yet another shark, the Pistons traded away Chauncey Billups this year for Allen Iverson and have played mediocre basketball at best. It wasn’t that long ago the Bad Boys had returned to Detroit, winning games with physical defense.

Since losing to the Spurs in the ’05 Finals, the Heat, Cavaliers, and Celtics have passed them by, and left the Pistons standing still.

This year, they get the top-seeded eastern juggernaut, the Cleveland Cavaliers, who set the franchise regular season win record and have home court advantage throughout the playoffs. If they’re lucky, the Pistons will win one game.

Prediction: Cavaliers 4, Pistons 0

(2) Boston vs. (7) Chicago

After surviving two seven-game struggles last season en route to the NBA title, the Celtics may yet again be in for a tough fight this season. One would figure the seventh-seeded Bulls are a bit better than last year’s Hawks, who also took the C’s to seven games.

To make matters worse, Kevin Garnett is out, and could very well miss the entire playoffs, however long that may be. Boston should survive a tough challenge from Chicago, but it may take a win at home in game seven to do the job.

Prediction: Celtics 4, Bulls 3

(3) Orlando vs. (6) Philadelphia

Another classic mismatch in the east. In one corner, a Magic team willing and able to show they belong among the elite teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the league.

In the other, a Sixer team that won exactly half their games and stayed off just about everyone’s radar in doing it. Orlando swept the season series, and they should sweep the Sixers in the playoffs as well. Superman won’t even muss his hair.

Prediction: Magic 4, Sixers 0

(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Miami

To contrast the San Antonio Spurs—the luckiest team in basketball—the Atlanta Hawks might be this season’s most cursed. Forty-seven wins, a fourth-place finish, and home court in the first round, and what do the Hawks have to show for it? A likely first-round exit.

Dwayne Wade, no worse than the third-best player in the NBA, literally carried a mediocre Miami Heat squad in to the playoffs with an MVP-calibre season. It really isn’t fair that one superstar player will be all a 43-win Miami team needs to punch their ticket to the second round. They could even make this upset look easy.

Prediction: Heat 4, Hawks 2

BCS (Brendan Championship Series) Preseason Rankings

Brendan Monaghan — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 12:00:46 -0400

1. SEC (Georgia defeats LSU)

The Bulldogs have just about everything going for them this year: a powerful and experienced offense, a tough defense, and several returning starters. They also have a strong Heisman candidate in running back Knowshon Moreno.

When he doesn’t get the ball, quarterback Matthew Stafford (only a junior, by the way) can throw to Mohamed Massaquoi, one of the best receivers in the conference, if not more. In addition...oh, who am I kidding? It’s their turn.

The SEC is far and away the most dominant conference in football, and with LSU, Florida, and Tennessee collecting crystal footballs in the BCS era (and with Auburn’s unforgettable, undefeated, untied, and uncrowned 2004 campaign), it just seems the Bulldogs are next in line.

And you know what? If they can survive the most challenging schedule in football, they’ll get it.

2. Big Ten (Ohio State)

The other half of college football’s running joke, the Ohio State Buckeyes seem primed to make another national title run. There’s simply too much talent on both sides of the ball for them not to do just that, especially if they can knock off the Trojans on Sept. 13.

Quarterback Todd Boeckman brings experience and leadership to the ticket while the nation’s top high school recruit Terrelle Pryor is the Bucks’ hope and change. Anchoring the offense, however, will be the law firm of Wells & Wells, led by the bruising power of senior partner Chris (who is actually a year younger than the speedier Maurice). Chris “Beanie” Wells is by far the Big Ten’s top Heisman candidate.

The Buckeyes also have the nation’s top defensive Heisman candidate (albeit a longshot) in linebacker James Laurinaitis, who would have been a first day pick if he had gone early. The battle in LA will be titanic, but the rest of the schedule is manageable. See you in South Beach?

3. Pac-10 (USC)

Death, Taxes, and Southern Cal winning the PAC-10. This century (or at least since 2002), these have seemed just about constant.

The Trojans had a major disappointment last season, losing (gasp!) two games, and still captured the conference crown, and another Rose Bowl victory along with it.

USC is not quite as talented as the best team ever (according to Jim Harbaugh) last season, but with about 100 tailbacks, they still should be pretty good. Joe McKnight should get plenty of carries this year, especially with quarterback Mark Sanchez’ recent injuries.

The defense, as usual, is stacked. The Buckeyes and Trojans will meet at the Coliseum on Sept. 13, with the winner in the drivers’ seat to Miami and the loser probably relegated to the Rose Bowl.

Ultimately, however, if there is one certainty among the possible BCS bowl teams, it’s the Trojans one way or another.

4. Big XII (Oklahoma defeats Missouri)

The one question that almost no one is asking, who is going to stop Oklahoma? Quarterback Sam Bradford set all kinds of freshman records last season, and returns with plenty of offensive talent.

Running back DeMarco Murray has already been compared to Adrian Peterson, and OU’s traditionally talented receiving corps includes senior Juaquin Iglesias and Quentin Chaney.

The strength of Bob Stoops’ teams has been the defense, and this year is no exception with talent in the secondary and power up front.

What would seem to favor the Sooners the most, however, is the schedule. The non-conference slate is soft, and includes TCU (who beat them in 2005) and a visit to Washington, after Bob Stoops vowed never to return to a Pac-10 stadium.

An equally-soft conference schedule means that their toughest games (and Nebraska) are either at home or in the Cotton Bowl. If the Sooners can stave off the customary let-down game, they could conceivably run the table. If not, it’s another trip to the Fiesta Bowl.

7. Big East (West Virginia)

OK, I’ll admit it. I was wrong about the Big East. When Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College all jumped ship for the ACC, I figured a powerless Big East would be mostly irrelevant, to the point that their automatic BCS bid should be reconsidered.

Then West Virginia whacked Georgia upside the head in the 2006 Sugar Bowl. What followed was an incredibly exciting conference race in 2006 that was won by, of all teams, Louisville. They beat ACC champion Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl, by the way.

Last year, the dynamic duo of Pat White and Steve Slaton raced off to a 10-1 record and were literally one game away from the national championship game. But the injury bug bit the Mountaineers and they stumbled in the Backyard Brawl.

This year, West Virginia says goodbye to Steve Slaton (who left early for the NFL) and good riddance to Rich Rodriguez (who left early for the Michigan Wolverines).

Will they challenge for the national title like they did last year? Probably not, but they should edge out South Florida for a spot in, let’s say, the Orange Bowl.

8. ACC (Virginia Tech defeats Wake Forest)

The Atlantic Coast Conference just hasn’t been the same since it expanded to 12 teams. In fact, it’s suffered three down seasons, thanks at least in part to their championship game.

Unranked Florida State upset fifth-ranked Virginia Tech in 2005, and the next year Wake Forest (seriously?) outlasted Georgia Tech in a game that would have made for boring soccer.

Last year produced a decent yet unseen game: Alltel Stadium in Jacksonville was empty, and it finished a distant third in the ratings on Championship Saturday. Expect the conference’s doldrums to continue in to this year.

The media’s pick is Clemson, and the popular sentiment is that Tommy Bowden could be out of a job if the Tigers don’t end their string of disappointing seasons. Well, quarterback Riley Skinner is back for Wake Forest, and so is coach Jim Grobe, so it doesn’t look good.

The class of this conference (which isn’t saying very much) is Virginia Tech, being clearly the most consistent team in a mediocre conference. After what should be an unremarkable win in Tampa Dec. 6, expect the Hokies to get outclassed by West Virginia in the Orange Bowl.

At Large

5. Florida

What can you do for an encore? After a season that produced Chuck Norris-like accolades, Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow is set to run roughshod over the SEC, and possibly repeat for the first time since Archie Griffin.

They will battle Georgia for the SEC East (and national) title, and even if they don’t get it, they should make a BCS bowl if they can make it through a usually tough schedule relatively unscathed.

The Gators have one of the best offenses in college football, along with a rebuilt defense that should correct the inconsistencies of last year. The Bulldogs and Bengals proved in years past that not winning your own division can have its BCS rewards.

Both watched championship game losers Arkansas and Tennessee relegated to lesser bowls as they eventually danced on Bourbon Street against Notre Dame and Hawaii, respectively.

Expect this trend to continue as Florida advances to their first Sugar Bowl since January 2001.

6. Missouri

Last year, quarterback Chase Daniel and receiver Jeremy Maclin took college football by storm. The duo terrorized the Big XII as Daniel passed for 4,306 yards and 33 touchdowns in a quick-gunning spread system.

The Tigers won the Big XII North—their first championship of any kind since 1969—and came within a game of playing for the national championship. Those hoping for a West Virginia-Missouri title game on Dec. 1 were sorely disappointed as both went down.

Just about everyone from last year’s 12-2 team comes back, and the Tigers are preseason favorites to repeat as Northern champions.

They may have a little more than revenge on their minds should they play in the Big XII Championship this year, and it would start week one in St. Louis with a date involving Illinois.

A repeat performance from last season should be enough to vault the Tigers to a BCS bowl, maybe Sugar or Rose.

9. Arizona State

“We won the PAC-10 for the first time in 11 years and all we got was this lousy trip to the Holiday Bowl.” While that may be a t-shirt you won’t see in Tempe this year, it could be regarded as the sentiment.

The Sun Devils have probably the best returning quarterback in the conference, but he was also sacked 55 times. If he can avoid that and get the ball to his talented receivers, they should do better this year.

A close loss against Georgia and one loss in conference would seem to be enough to get the Sun Devils in a BCS bowl for the first time since Jan. 1, 1997. Ironically, their bowl placement could depend on the outcome of USC-Ohio State.

A Trojan victory would likely send them to Miami and mean that all PAC-10 teams would move up a bowl. It could also set up a rematch with the Buckeyes in Pasadena. A Buckeye win would mean that likely-PAC-10 winner USC would go to the Rose Bowl, and Arizona State would head for New Orleans.

10. BYU

I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest the BYU Cougars as a BCS-buster. And why not? They’re the best shot a non-BCS team has of running the table this year. Max Hall follows in the great tradition of other BYU quarterbacks, like Jim McMahon, Ty Detmer, Robbie Bosco, and Steve Young.

The defense is also tough, even though you probably haven’t heard of them. Last year, they were a run-stuffing defense that was tough to score upon.

However, the main reason everyone is talking up the Cougars is their schedule, which could lend itself to an undefeated season: at Washington, UCLA at home, and trips to TCU and Utah would seem to provide the only stumbling blocks.

Survive those and finish 12-0, and there’s no reason not to include BYU in the BCS. Maybe a trip to the Sugar or Fiesta Bowls would be in order, but after 1996, Cougar fans really don’t care which.

Pac-10 2008 Preview: Which One of You All Is Finishing Second?

Brendan Monaghan — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 15:54:23 -0400

1. USC

After USC was supposed to be the best team ever last season (just ask Jim Harbaugh), they did the unthinkable and lost two games. Oh well—they still won the Pac-10 and thrashed Big Ten co-runner-up Illinois in the Rose Bowl. This season, while the Trojans should win an unprecedented seventh consecutive conference title, that’s about all that can be expected.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez played unreliably in a relief role for the injured John David Booty last season. Tailback U, however, will churn out several talents this year, including sophomore Joe McKnight. That’s a good thing, because USC’s receivers aren’t as scary as in previous years. There’s plenty of talent on defense, particularly among the linebackers and the secondary.

The Trojans are as solid a BCS lock as any team in the country. Win their September 13 battle with Ohio State, and they’ll be in the drivers’ seat to South Beach, where they won a national title four years ago.

2. Arizona State

Believe it or not, Arizona State won the Pac-10 in 2007. You probably didn’t hear about it because they had to share it with a certain team from Los Angeles. In 2008, with a veteran quarterback, a generally friendly (conference) schedule, and the one and only Dennis Erickson at head coach, the Sun Devils look to emulate the successes of last season.

Rudy Carpenter is probably the best overall returning quarterback in the league, and he’ll have help from an equally gifted receiving corps in Michael Jones, Kerry Taylor, and Chris McGaha, among others. Running backs Keegan Herring and Dimitri Nance should also provide a powerful one-two punch.

The Sun Devils have seldom been known for their defense, and the back seven needs to be rebuilt and replaced in order to keep up with the high-powered offenses in the Pac-10. A home win against Oregon would assure them second place and a return trip to the Holiday Bowl—or better.

3. Oregon

The Ducks started the season like a runaway freight train—toying with Michigan, winning a thriller against the Trojans, outlasting Arizona State—and ended with a spectacular wreck. Quarterback Dennis Dixon went down against Arizona, and the Ducks lost their last three regular season games before pulling together in the Sun Bowl.

Naturally, the number one issue in Eugene is at quarterback. It could be Sun Bowl winner Justin Roper, or maybe Nate Costa, who is coming off a knee injury. Where the Ducks are strong is at tailback, thanks to Jeremiah Johnson and junior college transfer LaGarrette Blount.

Traditionally, the Ducks’ biggest liability has been defense, which hasn’t been able to stop anybody since about 2002. This year’s problems will be the linebackers, who suffered last year due to injury. The secondary, led by Patrick Chung, looks solid.

After a head-scratching trip to West Lafayette, Indiana, we should know where the Ducks stand. A brutal conference slate that includes trips to USC, Arizona State, and Cal should keep hopes grounded in reality. Expect a third-place finish and a trip to the Holiday or Sun Bowl, depending on where the Sun Devils end up.

4. California

There’s no question the sturdy Golden Bears were the conference’s most disappointing team last season, particularly after such a strong start. After beating Oregon, many were picking the Bears as a surprise participant in the national championship picture. Then October hit and the Bears lost six of their last seven.

There should be enough talent and experience on the roster to avoid a similar slide. However, there’s also enough of each at the top of the conference to keep the Bears from performing too well.

Senior Nate Longshore knows he has to play better in 2008, but injuries and inconsistent play have limited his prior performance. The Bears lose a tremendous talent with the departure of receiver DeSean Jackson, but Jahvid Best should step up at tailback. What works in Cal’s favor is an experienced and talented defense.

If California can stay consistent, a trip to the Sun or Emerald Bowl may be in their future.

5. UCLA

The poster children for underperformance year in and year out in the Pac-10 have been the UCLA Bruins. The Sons of Westwood hope that will change with alum Rick Neuheisel at head coach and the experienced Ben Olson behind center.

It certainly doesn’t hurt that Norm Chow—yes, that Norm Chow—will run the offense, although they do lose a lot of talent among the wideouts. Running back Kahlil Bell is also a talent, if he can stay healthy.

The defense is rock solid with defensive tackles Brigham Harwell and Brian Price, as well as plenty of talent among the linebackers and secondary. This should help the Bruins win many of the winnable games they managed to lose in previous years.

They’ll get an early test—albeit out of conference—from a double whammy of Tennessee and BYU (the latter in Provo). They also travel to Oregon, California, and Arizona State before they play the Trojans at the Rose Bowl.

Coaching changes usually provide for instability, so this keeps the Bruins at fifth. The Emerald or Hawaii Bowl looks plausible.

6. Oregon State

It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish—at least that's how the Beavers have played in recent years. Stumbling starts in 2006 and 2007 gave way to remarkable stretch runs. They even won in Eugene last year for the first time since 1993.

In order to repeat their late-season heroics, the Beavers must first solidify the quarterback position—Lyle Moevao or Sean Canfield—and then find a way to replace the awesome talent of Yvenson Bernard at tailback. The best news offensively is that Sammie Stroughter is back for a senior season, thanks to a medical redshirt. The defense is experienced, particularly in the secondary.

Ultimately, the Beavers are a mid-level power in the Pac-10, and they face a brutal schedule: at Stanford, at Penn State, Hawaii, USC, and at Utah to start the year. If the Beavers can maintain their usual late-season form, they should be off to Hawaii or Las Vegas.

7. Arizona

In year five of Mike Stoops’ tenure, it’s now time to put up or shut up—or rather, pack up. The brash and high-profile head coach hasn’t taken his team bowling in his four seasons, and he may need to do just that to stay in Tucson.

There’s enough talent, on offense and particularly at quarterback, to get it done. Second-year starter Willie Tuitama leads a spread offense that should rack up passing yards and score plenty of points. The passing game should be exciting, but the running attack has been pretty non-existent for about the past decade.

That doesn’t even begin to talk about a defense which lost just about everybody from last season. The Wildcats know they can’t simply make like the NBA’s Suns and win games consistently by outscoring people.

Arizona should be on the bowl bubble this year. If they can’t stop teams defensively, Mike Stoops might be looking for work next season.

8. Stanford

Many are still debating which upset was more shocking last season: Division I-AA Appalachian State’s victory over Michigan, or 40-point underdog Stanford’s shocker at USC.

Coach Jim Harbaugh probably doesn’t care. In his first season, Harbaugh won four games, including the upset at the Coliseum and The Big Game against Cal. This year, Harbaugh hopes to improve and compete for a bowl slot, which probably won’t happen.

Quarterback Tavita Pritchard beat USC last season, but his position is by no means certain. What does appear certain is tailback Anthony Kimble, who will share a deep backfield. Nine returning starters on defense should help too.

The rest of the conference is simply too dangerous—and the non-conference schedule, which includes away games with TCU and Notre Dame, too imposing—for the Cardinal to field a winning side. Give it time.

9. Washington

If there’s a seat warmer than Mike Stoops’ in Arizona, it belongs to Washington’s Tyrone Willingham. Washington’s resources are too plentiful, and their alumni too demanding, for the Huskies not to be successful, much less competitive—and they simply haven’t been under Willingham’s watch.

It certainly won’t be any easier in 2008 as the Huskies have to go to Oregon before getting visits from BYU and Oklahoma to start the year.

Willingham will point to sophomore quarterback Jake Locker as a major reason why his team will improve this year, but he can’t do it all by himself. Just about the entirety of last year’s offense—including tailback Louis Rankin and receivers Anthony Russo and Marcel Reese—is gone. The Huskies do return what was just about the world’s worst defense, but they are getting a new defensive coordinator.

Ty Willingham is convinced his Huskies are better than last year’s record indicates. If he wants to stay in Seattle, this year he’ll have to prove it.

10. Washington State

It wasn’t long ago that the Cougars were where the Trojans are now. In fact, Washington State got the bigger half of the 2002 Pac-10 title, clinching their second Rose Bowl bid in six seasons. Things just haven’t been the same since Mike Price’s controversial departure from Pullman.

Bill Doba took them to the postseason in 2003, and they’ve not been back since. He’s gone now too, and it’s up to new man Paul Wulff to breathe some life into what was once a consistent top-tier program. It won’t happen this year, because, quite simply, the cupboard is bare.

At quarterback, a dependable replacement for Alex Brink has yet to be found. Maybe it’s senior Gary Rogers, who will have a few experienced targets this season. Similarly, the defense is experienced—one underclassman in the expected starting lineup—but just not very good.

The schedule doesn’t do them any favors either—Oklahoma State in Seattle, California, and a road game at Baylor could conceivably make for an 0-3 start. A November 29 trip to Hawaii is as close as this team will get to a bowl.

Big Ten Preview: Sizing Up the Big One and the Little Ten

Brendan Monaghan — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 09:40:23 -0400

1. Ohio State

It’s good to be the kings, and ever since the guy with the sweater vest arrived, that’s what the Buckeyes have been.

Now, with just about all their weapons returning—including quarterback Todd Boeckman, running back Chris “Beanie” Wells (easily the Big Ten’s strongest Heisman candidate), and linebacker James Laurinaitis—it’s difficult to see the Buckeyes as anything but the Big Ten champions for 2008.

The Buffalo Bucks have a lot of doubters (not the least of which reside below the Mason-Dixon Line), and they can go a long way toward proving them wrong (for a little while) when they visit the USC Trojans at the Coliseum.

On the other hand, just remember what happened the last time the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten opened up against a team from Division I-AA.

2. Wisconsin

One of the more consistent teams in recent years has been the Wisconsin Badgers. When Bret Bielema took over for living legend Barry Alvarez, the Badgers didn’t miss a beat.

With PJ Hill—the Wisconsin Winnebago—returning, along with talented tight end Travis Beckum and quarterback Allan Evridge, 10 wins and a return to Florida on New Year’s Day look like a cinch.

The offense looks as powerful as ever, but the defense—a traditional Badger staple—needs improvement, particularly a secondary that yielded 222 passing yards per game.

The schedule gets tough late in September, but softens up again once November hits. After a trip to Ann Arbor and an evening visit from the Buckeyes, the rest doesn’t look so bad. Don’t expect a title, however, unless something dreadful happens at the top.

3. Illinois

Betcha can’t do that again! Ron Zook’s third year in Champaign proved to be a breakthrough few could have foreseen. The Illini won nine games, and by virtue of beating Ohio State, made their first Rose Bowl since the 1983 season.

So what can you do for an encore? Running back Rashard Mendenhall left a year early to the NFL, and the defense’s emotional leader J Leman graduated.

The good news, however, is that Isaiah “Juice” Williams is only a junior, and receiver Arrelious Benn returns after winning the Big Ten’s Freshman of the Year award. Inexperience looms at linebacker, while the safeties also look suspect.

The schedule—complete with several daunting streaks—is rather ominous. For starters, the Illini haven’t beaten Ohio State in Champaign since 1991. Instead of a return trip to Pasadena, a New Year’s date in Florida seems more likely.

4. Michigan

The Wolverines were one of the most disappointing teams in college football last year—certainly in the Big Ten—and they still almost won the conference before beating Florida in the Capital One Bowl. This year, however, almost certainly looks like a down season.

The starting quarterback is expected to be a redshirt freshman, the tailback should be fumble-prone Brandon Minor, and the receiving corps is almost totally unknown. What’s more, new head coach Rich Rodriguez insists on running his spread offense with the personnel he has, which looks like trying to fit a round peg into a square hole.

The defense shows potential, but is similarly depleted of much of the talent from previous seasons. Michigan’s schedule is forgiving enough for the Wolverines to be competitive in the Big Ten, and plenty of fans will tell you that lesser Michigan teams have knocked off mightier Buckeye teams before, thus ruining their conference and national title hopes.

On the whole, however, this looks like a team headed for San Antonio. Enjoy it while you can, Michigan haters.

5. Purdue

Joe Tiller’s reign in West Lafayette has brought unparalleled success to a once pitiful and forgotten program. His final season should take the Boilermakers to their 11^thbowl in 12 seasons. There is certainly enough talent on offense to do just that—and maybe just a little more.

Quarterback Curtis Painter will have plenty of options to throw the ball to in seniors Greg Orton, Desmond Tardy, and Brandon Whittington. He can also hand it off to Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor.

Where the Boilers desperately need help is on defense, which has steadily declined since they led the conference in total defense in 2003. This, more than anything else, has limited Purdue’s upward mobility in the conference in recent seasons.

In any case, Purdue will go bowling again, probably the Insight Bowl, and offensive line coach Danny Hope will have big shoes to fill when Tiller steps aside at the end of the year.

6. Michigan State

Mark Dantonio’s first year experiment to transform the Spartans was a success. The team went bowling for the first time since 2003, and they even beat rival Penn State, which had bested them consistently in recent seasons.

However, they still lost an awful lot of close games, including another gut-wrenching bout with the Wolverines. The Spartans return a talented quarterback in Brian Hoyer as well as a powerful running back named Javon Ringer.

Questions arise, however, at wide receiver and tight end. The Spartan defense is small, which could hurt them once the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Badgers pay visits.

If the Spartans can survive a week one trip to Berkeley—and stave off another late-season collapse—maybe Sparty will get a chance to avenge last year’s loss with another trip to the Champs Sports Bowl.

7. Penn State

Something is rotten in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. While the Nittany Lions played unremarkable football on the field (they won all of one road game, in Bloomington, Indiana), their off-the-field conduct gathered plenty of headlines.

Six suspensions last season and two dismissals before this season suggest that the legendary coach Joe Paterno may have lost control of his program.

Indeed, with a lot of talent gone, particularly on defense, this looks to be another disappointing season in State College.

Taking the place of the inconsistent and much-maligned Anthony Morelli will be Daryll Clark, who reminds some of 2005 star Michael Robinson. The wide receiver corps looks strong, with seniors Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood.

There are big questions, however, on a defense that has been hit by graduation, dismissal, and injuries. A bowl game looks within reach, even if it’s in Detroit.

8. Iowa

The Big Ten’s hottest seat belongs to Kirk Ferentz. The popular view in Iowa City is that Captain Kirk isn’t being paid $2.8 million a season to win six games. The Hawkeyes missed a bowl game for the first time since 2000, Ferentz’ second season. They were also dogged by disciplinary problems and suspensions which kept the team from competing in the conference.

The questions start at quarterback. Jake Christensen did what could best be described as a season-long impersonation of Rex Grossman, hurling almost as many balls in to the stands as in to the end zone.

The questions continue at tailback and keep right on going into the receiving corps. The defense, however, looks decent, and is anchored by a strong line.

It’s safe to say that since winning two Big Ten titles in 2002 and 2004, Iowa has declined—and Kirk Ferentz’ NFL stock has fallen along with it. If Iowa fails to make a postseason appearance—and fails to beat the Cyclones—Captain Kirk could be looking for a new starship.

9. Indiana

Bill Lynch’s first season in Bloomington could be regarded as one of the most inspirational in college football last year. After taking over for the late Terry Hoeppner, the Hoosiers “Played 13” for the first time in 13 years.

And you know what? With the easiest schedule in the Big Ten, a record eight home games, and quarterback Kellen Lewis coming back, they could just do it again.

Lewis is the engine that powers the team, and he’ll get help from veteran tailback Marcus Thigpen. James Hardy may be gone, but Lewis can count on James Bailey, Andrew Means, and Ray Fisher when he throws.

A second straight bowl appearance rests on the shoulders of the defensive line, of which junior Greg Middleton is a part.

A weak non-conference schedule should allow for four wins right off the bat. Winning three in conference—say, at Minnesota, and home games against Iowa and Northwestern—would guarantee a spot.

10. Northwestern

As hard as it is to blame third-year head coach Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern football isn’t delivering under his tenure. The Wildcats skipped out on a bowl for the second straight year in 2007, but talent on offense and a very soft schedule make a return possible.

That doesn’t mean they’ll perform well in conference. CJ Bacher leads the offense, and what should be a highlight-rich senior season closes out an outstanding Wildcat career for Tyrell Sutton.

However, the offense won’t be able to score as many points on a consistent basis as the Wildcats should give up on defense.

Without much strength or athleticism, it’s hard to compete defensively in a league as physical and tough as the Big Ten. Running the table non-conference is doable, but if the Cats want to make it to a bowl game, they’ll have to win at least one conference game on the road.

11. Minnesota

Expectations were not supposed to be high in the Twin Cities, but nobody thought 2007 would be this bad for Tim Brewster’s Golden Gophers.

One win. That’s all the Gophers could manage in Brewster’s debut season, and it came against the Miami RedHawks.

That means they also lost 32-31 to Bowling Green, 42-39 to Florida Atlantic, and they even did the Wolverines one better by losing 27-21 to Division I-AA North Dakota State (a team they escaped losing to thanks to a blocked field goal the year before). The Gophers also went 0-8 in Big Ten play.

While their record should improve, their placement, ultimately, will not. There isn’t a lot of talent on either side of the ball, but the youthful offense may show some signs of potential in the future.

Brewster, however, isn’t as focused on this year as he is down the road. The 2009 season brings a new stadium, and maybe new results in Minneapolis.

Debunking (Or Not) The Myth of Sports Curses

Brendan Monaghan — Mon, 05 May 2008 07:58:36 -0400

It’s playoff time in the NBA and NHL, and with the Major League Baseball season well underway (and NFL draft this past weekend), now seems as good a time as any to talk of curses. The cruel nature of sports means that only one team can win it all, which leaves all the others in the sport waiting until next year. But for some, next year never arrives, and even of an era of free agency and variables such as star power and team payrolls, something has to explain a team’s perennial ability to choke in the spotlight. Like a billy goat, for example. Curses can afflict a single team- leaving others in a city unscathed- or an entire city, state, or even country. How then do we separate supernaturally-controlled strings of bad luck with a convenient coincidence or the simple constant of bad play? Well, I’ll do my best.

#1: Curse of the Billy Goat

Perhaps the most (in)famous current curse in sports is that of the lovable losers, the Chicago Cubs. The Cubbies are now entering their 100th year of futility, which may or may not be the fault of a local tavern owner’s goat. The Cubs haven’t won a World Series since 1908 and haven’t so much as won the National League Pennant since 1945 (both are the longest championship droughts in the sport). The curse was allegedly the invention of Greek national Billy Sianis, whose goat was kicked out of Wrigley Field during the Cubs’ last trip to the Fall Classic.

Supporting Evidence:

   1. 99 years of baseball lore and legend.

   2. Repeated attempts to break- or reverse- “the curse.”

   3. The Black Cat during the 1969 pennant race.

   4. 1984 NLCS Games 3-5 (specifically, the ball through Durham’s legs).

   5. Bartman. ‘Nuff said.

Refuting Evidence:

   1. Seasons 1948-1962, 1964-1966, 1973-1983, 1985-1988, 1990-1992, 1994, 1996-1997, 1999-2000, 2002, 2005-2006. Not just bad, Los Angeles Clippers bad.

   2. Bad players, bad trades and transactions, bad managers, bad front office, bad team.

   3. The team actually benefits financially from the “Lovable Losers” label.

Verdict: CURSE

Whether the curse exists or whether the Cubs are just a profoundly terrible sports franchise doesn’t seem to matter in this case. The fact is the fans believe it exists, and that makes all the difference. If Cubs fans didn’t believe their fortunes could be improved by simply signing (or hanging on to) better players, hiring more competent managers, or making better business decisions, they wouldn’t spend so much time and effort to lift the curse of a billy goat.

#2 The Cleveland Sports Curse

This one makes an appearance every year, when a team from the lakeside is eliminated from postseason contention. When the Brownies, Indians, or Cavaliers finally bite the dust, we’re once again reminded of the unfortunate incidents which all begin with “The.” “The Catch,” “The Drive,” “The Fumble,” and “The Shot” are among the most memorable in this almost annual montage. Within the past year, the Cavaliers have given us “The Sweep” in last year’s Finals and the Indians succumbed to “The Collapse” last October. Cleveland’s last championship in anything was the 1964 NFL Title Game, preceding the Super Bowl. The Indians last won a World Series in 1948, and the Cavaliers are still looking for their first NBA title.

Supporting Evidence:

   1. Lake Effect snow, a depressed economy, the flaming river- God hates Cleveland.

   2. The Major League movie series.

   3. Browns win the Super Bowl (in Baltimore)!!!

   4. The Cleveland Barons (that was an NHL team, by the way).

   5. That year the Cavaliers had, like, four head coaches, traded the #1 draft pick (James Worthy) for nobody, traded Bill Laimbeer for nobody, and played in Richfield, Ohio.

   6. The 1995 and 1997 World Series.

Refuting Evidence:

   1. No single person, phenomenon, event, or circumstance can explain all three (or four) Cleveland teams losing.

   2. Cleveland’s last championship (1964) came AFTER Rocky Colavito was traded (1960).

   3. He was Michael Jordan!

   4. Cleveland’s rivals (in everything) were just better.

Verdict: NO CURSE

ESPN declared Cleveland to be the most cursed city in America, but cursed by what? Better players and better teams, it would seem. Teams from the AL East, NBA’s Central Divison, and AFC Central walked all over the Indians, Cavs, and Browns from the 1960’s well in to the 90’s. Just imagine how well your city would fare if it had the Yankees, Bulls, and Steelers in their teams’ divisions. If there is a curse, a commonality between the three teams, it’s that Cleveland is a small fish in a pond full of piranhas.

#3: The Curse of Billy Penn

The early 1980’s were a great time to be a sports fan in Philadelphia. The Phillies won their first World Series championship in 1980, the Eagles made their first Super Bowl the following January, Doctor J and company were leading the Sixers to the NBA Finals on a regular basis, and the Broad Street Bullies were perennial Stanley Cup contenders. Enter One Liberty Place in 1987, which exceeded the height of William Penn’s statue atop city hall. Legend has it the insulted founder of the City of Brotherly Love imposed a curse on the Eagles, Sixers, Phillies, and Flyers until he once again is the most imposing object on the Philadelphia skyline. Philly hasn’t celebrated a major sports championship since Moses Malone led the “fo’, fo’, fo’” 76ers to the Promised Land in 1983.

Supporting Evidence:

   1. Flyers: 1987 and 1997 Stanley Cup Finals.

   2. Phillies: 1993 World Series.

   3. Sixers: 2001 NBA Finals.

   4. Eagles: 2001-2003 NFC Championships (all at home!), Super Bowl XXXIX.

Refuting Evidence:

   1. Philadelphia teams choked just as easily before One Liberty Place went up.

   2. The Phillies’ 1980 World Series title made them the last original baseball team to win it all.

   3. Sixer chokes in 1977 (NBA Finals), 1980 (NBA Finals), 1981 (blew a 3-1 series lead in the ECF), and 1982 (NBA Finals).

   4. Eagles championship drought dates back to 1960.

Verdict: CURSE

Four teams in one city coming so close so many times in so short a space of time seems like more than a coincidence. We have all the hallmarks of a curse in Philadelphia: unfortunate circumstances, a unifying force (in this case, the specter of William Penn), and what would seem to be a very good reason for ill will. I wouldn’t want to be replaced as the tallest thing in Philadelphia either. Most people will also tell you a serious case of karmic retribution was due against the fans of Philadelphia, who will jeer just about anything. Come on: Santa Claus? Seriously?

#4: Canada

In 1993, the NHL issued it’s most familiar pronouncement: the Montreal Canadiens were Stanley Cup champions, doing so by beating Wayne Gretzky’s Los Angeles Kings. A team from the Great White North has not lifted Lord Stanley’s Cup since, which is understandably quite troubling to many Canadians. The good old hockey game is much more than Canada’s national sport, it’s an integral part of Canada’s national identity and heritage. Hockey, quite simply, defines Canada- in the same way that soccer does for Great Britain or bullfighting does for Spain. For Canada’s trophy- awarded to the winner of Canada’s game- to visit locales such as Dallas, Tampa, Raleigh, and Anaheim can be seen as nothing less than a national disgrace.

Supporting Evidence:

   1. 1994 Vancouver Canucks (lost in seven), 2004 Calgary Flames (lost in seven), 2006 Edmonton Oilers (lost in seven), and 2007 Ottawa Senators (lost in six).

   2. One Presidents’ Trophy since, the 2003 Ottawa Senators, who lost in the conference finals.

   3. Marty McSorley, enough of a bastard to assault Donald Brashear, could certainly have cursed his own country.

Refuting Evidence:

   1. 1994 Vancouver Canucks (seven seed), 2004 Calgary Flames (six seed), 2006 Edmonton Oilers (eight seed), and 2007 Ottawa Senators (four seed).

   2. Last year’s Senators beat the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Buffalo Sabres.

   3. That one team who moved from Canada did just fine.

   4. Hey, at least they still have those World Series trophies.

Verdict: NO CURSE

Let’s face it: the Rangers, Lightning, Hurricanes, and Ducks were simply better teams. That’s why they all had home ice advantage in the Finals, and why they all dispatched of inferior Canadian teams. Also, it’s not like Canadian players are suffering from a Cup drought: last year’s Anaheim Ducks actually had more Canadian players on their roster than the team from Canada’s capital. If there would be a curse in place, the scapegoat would more plausibly be Joe Carter than Marty McSorley. Amazingly, a team from Canada has more-recently won the World Series than the Stanley Cup. Joe Carter’s walk-off homerun in Game Six of the 1993 Fall Classic may well have drawn the ire of American purists who hated seeing a team from Canada win at America’s national pastime. That still doesn’t explain the Raptors, though.

#5: The Buffalo Sports Curse

Anyone who was alive during the 1990’s knows how this one goes. The Buffalo Bills became the first team in NFL history to make four consecutive Super Bowls. In so doing, they also became the first team in NFL history to lose four consecutive Super Bowls. The Sabres’ failures are equally devoid of logic, having never won a Stanley Cup- and not for lack of trying. Theories surrounding the assassination of President William McKinley in 1901 suggest he made the mistake of casually mentioning the name of Brett Hull to Buffalo natives. Throwing in the long-since forgotten Buffalo Braves (who now enjoy considerably more success as the Los Angeles Clippers), the city has been without a title since the Bills won the 1965 AFL title. If that even counts.

Supporting Evidence:

   1. Four in a row: Norwood misses wide-right (XXV), Thurman Thomas forgets his helmet (XXVI), nine turnovers and 52 points (XXVII), and a second-half collapse (XXVIII).

   2. 1975 Stanley Cup Finals: indoor fog and a freaking bat!

   3. One of the worst blown calls in the history of sports (No Goal!).

   4. That whole “Music City Miracle” thing.

   5. We had a basketball team, remember?

Refuting Evidence:

   1. Who would curse Buffalo? The 1993 Houston Oilers?

   2. The Bills ran in to increasingly better teams each time.

   3. The Braves were a bad team . . . and then became the Los Angeles Clippers.

Verdict: CURSE

It’s bad enough that the fans of Buffalo sports teams actually have to live in Buffalo, with their predictably crappy weather and their complete lack of anything interesting within the city. But to suffer the slings and arrows of heartbreak so many (consecutive) times would make Richard Simmons melancholy. This curse sets itself apart from all the others in three ways. First, the football team became (and to some extent remains) a running joke, to the point of team members appearing with Marv Levy in a Snickers commercial (“No one is leaving this room until we figure out how!”). Second, the basketball team played terribly, got the hell out of town, and then became a running joke as the Los Angeles Clippers. Third, and perhaps most gut-wrenching, the hockey team was literally cheated out of a championship. Now that’s cursed.

Carrying the Torch of Tyranny

Brendan Monaghan — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 13:20:07 -0400

As much as I hate mixing politics with sports—and I do, believe me—it seems to happen every two to four years anyway.

In addition to holding the most important election in the history of world democracy, 2008 is an Olympic year, and this time they’re coming to Beijing.

Many people were upset when it was announced that China—which I call “Red China”—got the Olympics, particularly because of their almost 60-year occupation of Tibet, which they call a “peaceful liberation.”

The ordinary folks can be seen these past few weeks demonstrating, waving Tibetan flags, holding signs, and generally being beaten up by Chinese paramilitary forces sent to guard the torch. The powerful among the world’s elites, particularly in the IOC, care far less.

There were many questions as to why the Games of the XXIX Olympiad were awarded to Beijing on July 13, 2001.

Indeed, in the wake of the Nagano and Salt Lake City bribery scandals, there was certainly no shortage of extra-legal or unethical pretences. Given the dismal human rights record of the host country and even worse environmental conditions of the host city, one couldn’t help but be quizzical.

The only reason that would seem to remain, however, would be a sense of historical fairness among the IOC. Indeed, China will not be the first dictatorship to receive the games, and given their sterling track record for selection, probably won’t be the last.

The Nazis, of course, got their Olympics in 1936, which Chancellor Adolph Hitler fully intended to use as a means of promoting his racist ideals on the world stage. All the same, Hitler prudently remembered to remove the most blatantly anti-Semitic signs from Berlin’s public squares.

The Nazi Olympics are perhaps best remembered for Hitler’s Aryan ideal backfiring rather spectacularly when an African-American Ohio State University alumnus named Jesse Owens won four gold medals and left the "Master Race" in his dust.

On the whole, the Games were a great success: In fact, the 1936 Olympics were instrumental in reforming both Chancellor Hitler and his regime...right?

Not to be left out were the Soviets in 1980, who were just coming off an invasion of Afghanistan the year before. There were protests around the world, but the IOC looked the other way and went forward with the Games many saw as legitimizing Soviet power and ignoring their abuses at home and abroad.

The only significant form of organized protest came in the form of a US-led boycott (which may have done more harm than good; just ask all the disappointed athletes). No matter who or how many ignored their Soviet spectacle, the Kremlin still carried on with their occupation of Afghanistan well into the 1980’s.

Now China gets their chance, despite the litany of reasons to hold the games elsewhere (or just about anywhere, for that matter).

China continues to oppress Tibetans as part of an almost 60-year occupation.

China’s weapons-for-oil deal with Sudan continues to fuel the genocide in Darfur (Steven Spielberg actually quit his role as an Olympic adviser in protest of China’s destructive role in Sudan).

China has strong military ties to the regime in Burma, which shares China’s apparent goals of beating up defenseless Buddhist monks.

China continues to stifle dissent with an almost unmatched scale of repression. China also continues to use capital punishment for even the most trivial of offenses (including tax evasion, corruption, and putting lead in children’s toys) on a scale that is, in fact, unmatched on the world stage. In 2006 alone, China executed more than 1,000 people, which is more than 10 times the rate of their nearest competitor.

With China’s one-child policy under strict enforcement (to the point of forced abortions for some families), and with the almost immediate imposition of its use, one could cynically conclude the government uses the death sentence as a means of population control.

To top it all off, Beijing has some of the worst instances of air and water pollution on the planet. Indeed, if the secret police, People’s Liberation Army, or paramilitary torch-guarding thugs don’t get you, the toxic air and water surely will.

There is an alternative to the cold shoulder of apathy and ignorance given by the IOC to the millions of Chinese political prisoners and human rights activists throughout the world.

What’s more, there is another alternative to a Carterian boycott of the Games, which would only serve to harm the nations’ athletes. World leaders can take a stand by not attending the opening or closing ceremonies (in fact, several have, including French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Czech President Vaclav Klaus, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper).

President Bush, however, is unfortunately and, perhaps it was expected, not among those staying home. “The Decider” has, well, decided he’s going to Beijing anyway.

Talk show host Laura Ingraham perhaps put it best this morning: the Republican Party has a golden opportunity to place values ahead of dollars. This summer, it’s time for the rest of us to do the same.

Baseball Night in America: The Bad Old Days of the Regional Pastime

Brendan Monaghan — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:45:55 -0400

When the leaves come back on the trees and the weather gets warmer once again, the Major League Baseball season commences, and does so with more television coverage than the average fan could want.

The ESPN family of networks treated fans to a full day of opening-day coverage on Monday, and those able to receive MLB Extra Innings will enjoy a week’s worth of out-of-market games. Baseball fans don’t know how well they have it in 2008, with just about every game expected to be on television in some form.

There was a time, however, when this wasn’t the case; when baseball did to its fans through television what the three other professional leagues are doing now. For many of us who were at least nine years old in 1994, that experience came in the ill-fated Baseball Network.

Every league has gone through some experience in which it alienated or completely drove away their fan base over the air. The NFL began this year by extorting its non-sports tier subscribing fans with games on the NFL Network. ABC’s coverage—excuse me, ESPN on ABC’s coverage—of the NBA Finals spent more time on Magic, Larry, Michael, and Eva Longoria Parker than on the games themselves. And the NHL’s new deal with NBC, in which exactly no money heads to Toronto, makes almost too much sense: fourth place sport, fourth place network. Major League Baseball attempted this feat as well when they negotiated their TV deal prior to the ’94 season.

CBS lost a half-billion dollars in the fallout of their 1990-1993 contract, and MLB realized that something different had to be tried. In order to minimize their gargantuan losses from seasons prior, the league decided to go to the unprecedented step of producing the games themselves. They would then distribute them on both ABC and NBC, who split coverage throughout the year. Under the plan, each network would get a number of games to broadcast regionally in prime time during the week, known as Baseball Night in America.

With exclusive coverage during these slots, losses would be minimized and, ideally, ratings maximized. The excitement of capturing new and younger fans—as well as maintaining a consistent and reliable schedule—gave way to inherent problems with Baseball Night in America almost immediately.

Games could only be seen at 8:00 local time, regardless of whether the local team was playing in the right time zone. Fans in Seattle were out of luck, for instance, if they wanted to see the Mariners in Boston at 5:00 Pacific. Likewise, exclusivity also put fans in multi-team markets at a disadvantage. Pennant-chasing Yankee fans would have to put up with watching the bottom-feeding Mets if TBN aired them instead.

The strike of 1994 put many of TBN’s problems on hold for another year, but they would surface once again. Placing regionalization above all else meant that certain important games could not be seen by much of the country, thus putting the pennant race of ’95 in the dark.

Making matters worse, every game of the newly-expanded playoffs were regionalized as well. This was almost unheard of in professional sports, as Major League Baseball and the NFL aired every playoff game nationally. To be sure, 1995 was an exciting year for the divisional playoffs, which served up two sweeps, a four game series, and an enduring classic between the Yankees and Mariners, which appeared in Dane Cook’s postseason teasers last year. With all four games airing simultaneously, the nation missed what was going on in playoff games elsewhere.

The situation was particularly infuriating for Cleveland Indians fans, who were witnessing (or in fact missing out on) history. The Indians were putting roughly a half-century of famous futility behind them and making a playoff run for the first time in many fans’ lives. If you lived south of WKYC or WEWS’ signal range however, you were shut out and stuck with the Reds. Even if games ended early (or if more exciting games were going on), the network signed off around 11:00 local time for the late local news.

The 1994 players’ strike doomed The Baseball Network, and an agreement in 1995 between ABC and NBC put TBN out of its misery. The Baseball Network was such an ordeal that both networks swore off baseball for the rest of the 20th century (with ABC actually following through).

Baseball soon singed a deal with Fox which was much more rooted in common sense. While regional action continued (albeit on more flexible Saturday afternoons), fans could at least see their own teams in action and every game of the playoffs. With The Baseball Network joining the Olympics Triplecast on the ash heap of sports television, it’s safe to say Major League Baseball has learned from this colossal failure. It is one of the few areas in which MLB has much to teach its fellow leagues.