Bleacher Report - Articles by Brendan Majev

Detroit Lions Poised To Roll The Dice at No. 1 with Matthew Stafford

Brendan Majev — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 23:44:29 -0400

Hey everybody, time for my last stab at a mock. You can see my previous one from roughtly five weeks ago here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/140822-big-man-is-a-smaller-risk-jason-smith-at-1-to-the-detroit-lions

As you can see just from the headline, I've come over to the dark side, as it were, because all signs indicate the Detroit Lions will indeed be selecting Matthew Stafford from the University of Georgia at No. 1. I don't agree with the pick, but I'm not the Lions GM. And hey, at least they're not taking Michael Crabtree...

A lot has changed in the last five weeks: players have fallen, risen, and held steady. A couple of names who I had pegged as second rounders creep into the first round here.

I will be keeping "trade tabs" on a few picks, which I will give reasoning for. After I missed on guessing where Jay Cutler would go, I'm not quite so inclined to put myself out there as I was the last time around...

In any case, here is the mock, and with the understanding that maybe half of these picks will be right if I do really well, please enjoy, and I would appreciate any feedback, as well!

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

I do not think the Lions should be making this pick, as I've already outlined. They have too many needs on their roster to pass up on a franchise OT. However, all signs point to the Lions taking Stafford and my job is to predict the picks, not to make the picks for these teams. Therefore he appears at No. 1.

Don't get me wrong, Stafford is a great prospect with a cannon arm, but he has inconsistent decision making and isn't necessarily the most accurate passer.

Couple that with the fact that underclass QBs typically fail at the next level (see: Ryan Leaf), and I'm just not convinced this guy is going to be what the Lions need him to be, ESPECIALLY with a leaky offensive line in front of him. The Lions had better hope they hit on their later OL picks, or this has bust written all over it.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Smith is my top overall prospect in this draft because he's a great pass blocker with a mean streak to move the pile in the running game and doesn't have any off the field issues to speak of.

To me, that makes him the clear No. 2 overall pick, given that the Lions are passing on him, and it's practically a lock now that the Rams have released Orlando Pace. This is still Steven Jackson's team, and he needs blockers; in addition, there should be some good WRs left when the Rams pick early in round 2 if they're interested in replacing Torry Holt.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

50 percent possibility of a trade.

I've had Aaron Curry penciled in here since the NFL combine and I don't see any reason to move him around now; he's tops on the draft boards of several teams, even as Eugene Monroe's draft stock rises.

However, I don't really envision Curry coming off the board at No. 3. Why? First, he's not a pass-rushing LB, which is where LBs make their money these days, and second, the Seattle Seahawks have indicated a willingness to take Mark Sanchez at No. 4 overall.

Couple that with Scott Pioli's lack of a second round pick in this year's draft, that is a recipe for the Chiefs moving down.

I predict that Mark Sanchez will be gone at No. 3, but if the Chiefs stay put, I think Curry is the pick—Tyson Jackson fills a bigger need, but I don't think Tyson Jackson is worth this selection.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern California

In one mock that I did (not published on BR), I had Sanchez falling all the way to the Jets at 17. Then his stock set on fire and I finally bought into the Sanchez hype, just as I gradually bought into the Stafford hype, though the latter came first. I do think that if a team wants Sanchez, they're going to have to move up and get him: without Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks were a pretty awful team.

As for why the Seahawks want him, Mark Sanchez is most certainly a scheme-fit in Seattle and he has great intangibles. At the combine he did a "full workout," even doing the 60-yard shuttle, which is basically an endurance test that virtually no QBs perform.

He essentially showed teams he was willing to do whatever it took to win and he comes across similarly in interviews. NFL personnel always need QBs, and they're buying Mark Sanchez. End result: Sanchez makes lots of money on draft day.

5. Cleveland Browns: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

The two-time Biletnikoff award winner is far and away the best wideout in the draft, and the likelihood that Cleveland will take him on draft day seems to have been increasing for a long time.

I do believe that Braylon Edwards will be a New York Giant before the end of draft day—I've been waiting to publish my mock for that reason—and that further strengthens my conviction that Crabtree will be the pick here.

The Browns' success hinges on getting their offense to click, and they desperately need a top-flight WR for whichever QB ends up winning the starting job (possibly by default if one of them is traded).

6. Cincinatti Bengals: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

The Bengals will be jumping for joy if Eugene Monroe lasts until No. 6 overall; Monroe is a gifted pass-protector, perhaps even more so than Jason Smith, but I don't believe he can run block as well as the Baylor product, therefore I believe he's the No. 2 tackle in the draft.

Just as the Browns fire on all cylinders when the passing game is working, so too do the Bengals, even without T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals absolutely must keep QB Carson Palmer upright; he's an elite talent when healthy.

Frankly, I think the Bengals will take the best LT available, even if it's Andre Smith or Michael Oher—it's too great of a need.

7. Oakland Raiders: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

I have no idea what to do with this pick. The Raiders need a WR like Jeremy Maclin (or Darrius Heyward-Bey, if they want to reach so far), an OT like Andre Smith, and a DT like B.J. Raji, all of whom are still on the board.

I ended up giving them Smith because he is a mauler in the run game and was maybe the No. 1 overall pick at the end of the regular season before all the question marks came up.

Even though the Raiders almost always target the fastest player in the draft, I just think it's too much of a reach even for Al Davis to take Heyward-Bey here, and Tom Cable wants an elite O-line, which will make the entire offense look better.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

90 percent possibility of a trade.

Someone is going to want this pick, even with Mark Sanchez already off the board, because Michael Oher is the last elite LT in the draft, B.J. Raji is also still there, and Tyson Jackson is starting to look pretty good. But if the Jags stay put, Jack Del Rio needs to win NOW to save his job.

The Jags D hasn't been the same without Marcus Stroud, and I think they look to replace him and recreate that physicality on defense. Jeremy Maclin is a possibility, but I think the signing of Torry Holt means the Jags aren't looking WR with this pick.

A real steal for the Jags to have Raji fall to them, but man, big ouch for Green Bay.

9. Green Bay Packers: Tyson Jackson, DE, Louisiana State

Green Bay NEEDS a big body on their defensive line in the biggest possible way, and Tyson Jackson's draft stock is on fire. He's the only elite 3-4 DE (five technique) in the draft, and with Green Bay switching to the 3-4 defense, they can't afford to pass up a big 3-4 lineman with this pick, whether it's Raji or Jackson.

I believe they should go up and get one of those two players at No. 7 or No. 8 if one of them is already gone. A great pick for the Packers, even if Raji would have been a better one.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas

Orakpo's stock hasn't so much cooled off as he's been overshadowed recently by the likes of Tyson Jackson, B.J. Raji, Mark Sanchez, and Michael Crabtree based on needs in the top 10.

San Fran needs a pass rusher, and Orakpo fills that void. However, they also need an OT, and with Michael Oher still on the board I wouldn't be surprised to see them take the last elite LT or even trade down if another team is looking to move up and take Oher here.

As it is, I don't think the 49ers can pass on probably the best edge rusher in the draft.

11. Buffalo Bills: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

The Buffalo war room would probably erupt if this scenario played out. The Jason Peters trade creates a giant net for any tackle that somehow drops out of the top 10, and in this scenario that's exactly what has happened.

I'm not sure they even listen to trade offers here with such a pressing need- Buffalo fans should celebrate if this plays out like I've outlined. On top of that, Oher is most definitely NOT a reach here, he's a tremendously talented player, if he is sometimes a bit inconsistent.

12. Denver Broncos: Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern California

40 percent possibility of a trade.

Tough luck for the Broncos, a week ago it looked like Raji might fall to Green Bay and Tyson Jackson might fall to them. As it is, though, they're both already gone, and so Denver needs to add the next best thing: a thumper in the middle of their defense.

Their failure to pick up a D-lineman with this pick means that they're probably looking to trade back and at some point select Boston College DT Ron Brace. He doesn't carry a first-round grade, but there's no disputing that Brace can hold up at the point of attack in the run game and is probably ideally suited for a 3-4 defensive alignment.

Maualuga is the best inside linebacker in this class and is tremendously physical, especially against the run. I don't buy that he isn't a 3-down linebacker, so picking him so early is no problem for me. Especially with someone to protect him up front, he's a great pick for Denver.

13. Washington Redskins: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

Ayers is probably the best 4-3 DE in this year's draft and the departure of Jason Taylor creates a need at this position. Ayers's stock has been rising steadily since the combine and I think he both fills a need for the 'Skins and grades out as a top-15 talent.

Great pick here by the Redskins, especially because Ayers will be even more effective playing on the same line as Albert Haynesworth- I'm not sure Haynesworth was worth what they paid him, but there's no denying he makes everyone on that defense better.

14. New Orleans Saints: Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State

I wish Malcolm Jenkins could run a 4.4. If he did, he'd be a slam-dunk for a top 10 pick. As it is, I'm not sure he grades out as a top-flight corner, but he is a GREAT player who makes plays. The Saints have a desperate need for a playmaker in the defensive secondary and Jenkins might have the best ball skills of anyone in the draft.

I don't care whether New Orleans thinks he's a corner or a safety, because frankly, they have needs at both positions.

Beanie Wells is also in consideration here, but if the Saints want a thumper at RB, they can get one in round 2, particularly since Wells's continued presence on the board will push down the other RBs. Shonn Greene would be a great pick for NO in round 2.

15. Houston Texans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut

Butler might be the most highly rated CB in this draft for teams that don't think Malcolm Jenkins is fast enough to play the CB position, and Butler's stock has steadily been rising in recent weeks with a great pro day workout and questions surrounding Vontae Davis, who is the most talented corner.

I thought long and hard about whether to give the Texans Davis anyway, but his older brother Vernon is pretty much a bust in San Francisco and Davis doesn't always give his best effort, so Butler gets the nod because he, too, is a great player and should help the Texans immediately.

16. San Diego Chargers: Brian Cushing, LB, Southern California

I think the guy the Chargers want is Rey Maualuga, but the Broncos needed him at 12 so they may have reached by a couple of picks to go get him. End result is that Cushing falls to the Chargers, who might be the most talented team in the league, and will take Cushing, who is the best player available.

SD should run away with the AFC West this season, regardless of what happens in the draft. Just throwing it out there that if they don't Norv Turner should be fired. With a team this talented, they absolutely MUST win.

17. New York Jets: Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Georgia

Before the Thomas Jones contract situation, I think the Jets would have taken Josh Freeman, but Thomas Jones isn't worth any new contract that he gets, so it's time to move away from a 30-year-old running back and toward maybe the best RB on the board.

New head coach Rex Ryan is the type that will want to win games 10-7 rather than 17-14, so don't rule out a defensive player here, but with so many free agent signings on the defensive side of the ball, I just don't think the Jets have a lot of needs on defense and Wells is a great value pick that in this scenario has just kept on sliding.

Time for that madness to stop: he's a great back with awesome power and can carry the rock 25-30 times a game.

18. Denver Broncos: Clay Matthews, OLB, Southern California

Assuming no trade at No. 12, 60 percent possibility of a trade.

The Broncos continue to re-tool their defense with the selection of their second USC linebacker of the day. I do think they would like to trade out of the pick, and I thought about giving them Ron Brace here anyway, but I just don't see him going this early under any circumstances.

Matthews is a self-made athlete with off-the-charts intangibles and he was USC's best pass rusher- plus you know he'd be excited at the chance to stay with Maualuga. He's probably the best "money-down" linebacker left at this point, and I think that will be reflected in Denver's selection.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss

The second DT should come off the board here. Jerry is plenty good enough to be the under tackle in a 4-3 defense and it's said that the Bucs are really high on him. The signing of Byron Leftwich, in my opinion, means that the Bucs should not be targeting Josh Freeman, even though he's still on the board, because they need to protect Barrett Ruud from a swarm of blockers if they're going to stop the run.

Raheem Morris is a defensive guy; he'll see the value of this pick.

20. Detroit Lions: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

I don't care if Jim Schwartz is a defensive coach, if they're serious about taking a QB with the No. 1 overall pick, the Lions are obliged to protect him. Eben Britton is the best OT left on the board and is plenty good enough to play the LT position, kicking Jeff Backus inside to guard.

Despite the Lions needs on defense, it does appear that they seem to be intent on fixing their offense first by taking Stafford and pairing him with Calvin Johnson. For those two to be effective, the Lions need to upgrade their line, and I think that's what they will do here.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

Philly's decision to go get Jason Peters was a great one. He's an upgrade over Tra Thomas at LT and will move the pile on runs. What the Eagles need out of this pick is a wideout for McNabb to hit, but I just don't see Andy Reid listening to McNabb and going after a true No. 1 WR here.

Instead, they'll pick up Moreno who can spell Westbrook and be his eventual successor. Don't get me wrong, Moreno is a great pick here as far as talent, but the Eagles are one piece away from being a truly dominant team.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

You'll see that in my first mock Percy Harvin went at No. 13 to the Redskins. I still think the Redskins need another playmaker on that offense, but Harvin has had some character issues come up and several teams have taken him off their board.

Having said that, I can't imagine how elated the Vikings would be if Harvin fell to them, he's a top-10 talent without question. The Vikings do have a strong locker room, so it's worth taking a flier on someone so talented.

23. New England Patriots: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois

I'm trying to figure out how English's stock has been so constant relative to the other rush linebackers in this draft. He stared as a 2nd round pick, peaked at maybe the early 20's, fell back to the second round, and with the fall of Aaron Maybin and Everette Brown down draft boards has come back to the early 20's.

I think the guy the Patriots are targeting here is Clay Matthews, but he's already long gone so Larry English is the next-best option as the Patriots transition from an older to a younger linebacking corps. English is a great pass rusher and should provide an immediate impact.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Evander "Ziggy" Hood, DT, Missouri

I've had Brandon Pettigrew penciled in here for ages, but the Tony Gonzalez trade means that Pettigrew is still falling down draft boards, unfortunately for him.

Gonzalez frees the Falcons to address a gigantic need along the defensive line, and Hood is very clearly the third defensive tackle in the draft. As a result of this pick start looking for Denver to make a move and go get Ron Brace later in the round, or he could get snapped up by the Lions at No. 33 overall.

Hood is a classic 3-technique player who might need to get a little bit better against the run, but he's certainly talented, even if he might be a bit of a reach in terms of his talent relative to a couple of other players still on the board.

25. Miami Dolphins: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

The most talented corner in this draft and doubtlessly the most talented player remaining on anyone's draft board, Vontae Davis will get snapped up by Bill Parcells as both the best available player and a need-filling pick for the Dolphins.

I can see the "Tuna" targeting a wideout with this pick, but I just think that Davis is too good of a value at a need position for Parcells to pass up. The Dolphins, like the Vikings, do have a strong locker room and so it's worth the risk to pick up such a talented player.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

The fastest player in the draft, "DHB" is the last of the really elite talents at WR in this class at a position the Ravens need. Brandon Pettigrew could also be in play here, but I just think that if DHB falls to Baltimore they almost have to take him.

I do not think that Anquan Boldin will be coming to the Ravens because the Cardinals' price will be too steep, but the Ravens do need a wideout and the idea of having a 4.3 WR for Joe Flacco's big arm is very appealing to any Ravens fan—there hasn't been a vertical passing game in this town since Raymond Berry was catching passes from Johnny Unitas.

27. Indianapolis Colts: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State

I think the Colts really want Peria Jerry or Evander Hood, but they're both off the board here and so Bill Polian will take the guy who can step in for Marvin Harrison. Everything about the Colts starts with their offense, and Robiskie is a great player and a very safe pick here, even if he might be a slight reach.

Kenny Britt or Hakeem Nicks would also make sense here, but it seems like they've fallen behind Robiskie and perhaps even into the second round from sources that I've been hearing around the league (though you'll see both of those names here).

28. Buffalo Bills: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

A week ago I would have said this would never happen: Pettigrew falling all the way to 28. I still think that if Heyward-Bey goes before the Ravens pick at 26, Pettigrew will be gone then, but I do think that DHB is higher than Pettigrew on Ozzie Newsome's draft board.

Pettigrew is the clear-cut top TE in this draft and fills a real need for the Bills at 28. If the Bills can get both Michael Oher and Brandon Pettigrew with their first-round picks, their draft is almost a success already. An ideal situation for the Bills outlined here.

29. New York Giants: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

The Giants proved at the end of last year that they just weren't the same team without Plaxico Burress. They've upgraded their defensive line further (if that was possible anyway), and they still have probably the most talented team in the entire NFC. Still, I think they're probably an 11-5 team right now without a game-breaker at WR.

Hakeem Nicks might be the most NFL-ready receiver in this year's draft and while the window for the Giants to win again isn't really closing just yet, they have a great team and need to aggressively try and win right now, whether that's trading for Braylon Edwards or selecting a big WR (Kenny Britt is also in play here) with this pick.

30. Tennessee Titans: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

I think this is a classic best-guy-left scenario. The Titans' best playmaker is the guy they hit on last year, Chris Johnson. At the time of the draft I couldn't understand the pick, but now it seems brilliant.

Still, what about a WR here to complete the offense? The Titans don't have a go-to guy in the passing game and Britt is the last really elite talent still on the board here, and as a bonus it's at WR. He's a big guy, so he fits the Jeff Fisher mold of being physical, and I think he'd be a great pick here.

31. Arizona Cardinals: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut

The Cards need a replacement for Edgerrin James- Tim Hightower isn't going to cut it- and Donald Brown has slid a little bit past where I think he could be valued. I think the Eagles would consider Donald Brown at 21 if Moreno and Wells aren't there, so the fact that he's fallen to the Cards ten picks later is pretty remarkable and I don't think they can afford to pass on him.

I did consider Michael Johnson here, the DE from Georgia Tech, but I think Brown is a much safer pick and also fills a bigger need.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alex Mack, C, California

There's a debate about which center is the best one in this year's draft class, but my vote is for Alex Mack, and so that's who I think the Steelers will take.

An All-American center and an Academic All-American as well, Mack is a very talented, smart player, exactly in the mold that the Steelers will like at a position of relative need. Max Unger, I think, would be the other choice here if the Steelers think that Unger is more versatile, or it's also possible that Pittsburgh would take William Beatty, one of the guys who was an absolute force as a senior at OT.

I do think that Pittsburgh will take the best offensive lineman on their board here, unless a really remarkable player falls to them.

The 10 Best Players of the Super Bowl Era

Brendan Majev — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 03:10:39 -0400

Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to a debate of a topic that is completely impossible to resolve and based almost completely on personal preference: the top 10 players of all time in the Super Bowl era. I have limited this to the Super Bowl era because, frankly, I do not care about how the game was played in the 1940s: the game was too different, it was incomparable to how it is played now. Too many innovations have taken place; I cannot relate to a game where a forward pass barely existed, therefore, I will not try. I am approximately 100% sure that this will spark endless debate and approximately 99.999999999% sure that no one will have exactly the same list that I do, yet I feel some sort of compulsion to make this attempt. I used three main criteria in making this list: 1) Ability to take over the game on command. The best players in any sport are the ones who can put their entire team on their shoulders and say "follow me." As fans, we idolize these athletes. Truthfully, this means that an offensive lineman cannot, and indeed, is not, on this list, however unfair it may be. 2) Super Bowl championships. Football is a team game, but the best players in league history WIN. I do not care how, nor do I care about their supporting casts. When the chips are down, they deliver. 3) Name recognition. Do you hear this player's name and cower in fear and/or bow before him? If not, there's a good chance he didn't make the list. I should say, in the interest of full disclosure, that I am 20 years old. I did not seriously follow football prior to the 2000 season when the Ravens, my hometown team, were making their run. Yes, that probably means that I missed out on actually -seeing- a guy like Walter Payton run during his career. It's not quite as impressive on film as it is when you're really watching. However, the last criterion is probably the most important one.

Begin Slideshow

Big Man Is a Smaller Risk: Jason Smith No. 1 to the Detroit Lions

Brendan Majev — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 21:17:21 -0400

Hi everyone.

It's been an interesting year, but it's that time again.

Yes, free agency is in full swing and the most fun part of the NFL offseason is coming up: the NFL Draft, Apr. 25-26. The reason why the draft is such fun, you ask? Simple: every team is important.

Yes, even the 0-16 Lions, because they control their own destiny at the top of the draft (the fact that they had to lose 16 games to get that pick and will again fade to nothingness is beside the point, right now they're important).

Now, without further ado, my mock draft, with a couple of projected trades along the way.

1. Detroit Lions: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

This Smith is the complete package at OT. He doesn't quite have the feet of a Eugene Monroe, but has all the other measurables, upper body strength chief among them, and also has the leg drive to finish blocks. Plug him in at left tackle from day one, and leave him there for the next 10 years.

The new front office in Detroit CANNOT afford to miss on this pick, and so they'll be obliged to take a lineman. Remember: Calvin Johnson can't get the ball if his quarterback is eating the turf (or stepping out of bounds freely).

2. St. Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

Eugene Monroe, like Jason Smith, is a top-flight prospect at the critical LT position. With the loss of longtime mainstay Orlando Pace this offseason, it's a no brainer: the Rams are obliged to take the top OT still on the board with this pick.

In my opinion, it's Jason Smith, if the Lions go quarterback, but Monroe is no slouch either: He's another 10-year starter.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest

Depending on who you ask, Aaron Curry might be the best player in the draft.

B.J. Raji would be the historical pick here (with high picks, the Patriots, new GM Scott Pioli's former team, have gotten the likes of Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, and Vince Wilfork), but Glenn Dorsey was last year's pick and Curry is a phenomenal talent who is extremely versatile.

In other words, he's exactly what Pioli will look for.

4. Seattle Seahawks: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

What a shame for the Seahawks if the Lions pass up on Stafford- they're left to choose between Hasselbeck and none other than the man Detroit passed up. But even though Raji's a bit of a reach here, he's still a great option and is the consensus best interior defensive lineman in the draft.

I just don't think that at this point Seattle is going to be interested in anything other than trading down. Unfortunately for them, nobody is going to want this pick, so Raji's the best option left.

5. Cleveland Browns: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas

Cleveland's pass rush was up there in terms of its ability to suck every week. The best way to fix that is not with a defensive back, but by fixing the poor pass rush. Orakpo is the best player available who can do that, at least in my opinion, although Everette Brown warrants consideration.

With Stafford still on the board, Cleveland might get a phone call from the Denver war room about Jay Cutler, but in my opinion, Cleveland needs to fix its defense NOW with this pick.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

Talk about a risk. Andre Smith at this spot? Still, he's exactly what the doctor ordered from a positional standpoint for the Bengals—with the signing of WR Coles, they've effectively eliminated the possibility of taking Crabtree or Macklin with this pick.

Smith has all the talent in the world, maybe enough to make the Hall one day. But if he's as lazy as some people say he is...well, he could be out of the league in five years.

7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

If the Raiders were any other team, I would say they would trade down, but the Raiders are not any other team.

If Al Davis was any other owner, I would say the Raiders should be looking OT in this draft, but Al Davis is not any other owner.

In light of this, I think Davis will go with what he thinks is best- another home-run hitter for the offense, even when I think the 49ers would be extremely interested in trading, say, a fifth-round pick to swap with the Raiders in order to move up and take Stafford here (his price tag will be more manageable at No. 7 than it would be at No. 1).

Don't get me wrong: Macklin is a phenomenal player who has tremendous versatility and can add to any offense. But if the Raiders were to trade to No. 10, Macklin might still be there, and if he isn't, then it's virtually a lock that Michael Oher will be.

The reality, though, is that the Raiders should 1) trade up for one of the top-tier tackles, or 2) trade down to try and grab Oher around picks 10-13.

Sorry, Tom Cable, welcome to draft day in Oakland.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

The experts don't seem to agree with my assessment that the Jags will go WR with this pick. With respect, I think the experts are flat-out wrong. Pat Kirwan is obsessed with the idea that Jacksonville will go QB here, and Stafford will be extremely tempting having fallen so far.

But man, how could the Jags pass up if either Crabtree or Maclin fell right into their laps? They've had problems at WR for years—both players are serious difference makers.

9. Green Bay Packers: Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State

The guy the Packers really wanted is Raji, but thanks to Detroit's decision to pass up on Stafford and Seattle's choice of the best player that also fills a need, there are three things happening.

1) Stafford is pulling a Brady Quinn, crying in the green room, as he sees all of his $$$ go away.

2) Mel Kiper is pissing me off by talking about how important it is that teams don't pass on a franchise QB.

3) Green Bay's front office is forced to take the best player available that fits Dom Capers's new 3-4 defensive scheme.

Brown can bring lots of heat off the edge, but his pass coverage skills are suspect. As a rookie, though, I think the Pack should just let him pin his ears back and rush the passer.

I can see the Pack going with Malcolm Jenkins here, but a good pass rush makes that whole secondary look better.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia

The relief on Stafford's face will be evident when he's taken at the No. 10 spot by the 49ers, who were originally trying to move up to No. 7 to try and get him. He's probably the best player left on anyone's board at this point, and having a potential No. 1 overall pick fall to No. 10 is a delight.

Happy birthday, Mike Singletary: You have a legit quarterback instead of journeyman Shaun Hill.

11. Buffalo Bills: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

Is he a corner? He wants to be, but I think he'd rather take a bigger payday and be a safety than a smaller one and be a corner, especially with his coverage skills. Is he a safety, then? It doesn't matter, because Buffalo needs help at both spots, and Jenkins is a big-time ballhawk who will always be around the ball.

Note to the Bills: When he becomes a free agent, don't let him walk like Nate Clements did. At any rate, he's the best player available at this point.

12. Denver Broncos: Brian Cushing, LB, Southern California

Need some players, Mike Nolan? I've got one for you right here. He isn't Curry or Orakpo, but at the No. 12 spot, Cushing is a great fit in Nolan's 3-4 scheme. He's versatile, has good measurables, is polished, and knows how to win, coming from a winning program at USC.

Penn State LB Aaron Maybin is probably also under consideration here as he's a better pass rusher, but Cushing's versatility is going to be extremely important in a successful 3-4.

13. Washington Redskins: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

Harvin is, quite simply, a "Baller," and yes, with a capital B. He makes so many plays in space that it's not even funny; just put the ball in his hands and watch the entire defense miss tackles.

This is earlier than I've seen him taken in any other mock drafts, but to me it makes sense because of what the 'Skins need. It sure as hell isn't anything on their defense: the signing of Haynesworth assured that, if he's healthy, they'll remain an elite group.

If Washington wants to really make some noise, though, they need to add a playmaker that isn't named Clinton Portis to the mix. Harvin will make Portis and QB Jason Campbell MUCH better, even if it's a reach to take him here.

14. New Orleans Saints: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

This pick NEEDS to be the one if you watched the Saints play defense last year. Mike McKenzie is aging, and to be honest, I can't think of another player in the New Orleans secondary (never a good thing: I'm not a total NFL aficionado, but I'm pretty close—I do check NFL.com every single day. More than once).

Davis is a great cover guy and is also a great value for this point in the first round. He'll be a Saint for the next decade or so.

15. Houston Texans: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State

Looking for a tough guy who's a thumper to pair with Steve Slaton? "Beanie" Wells is your guy. Houston could go in a couple of different directions, but with Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Matt Schaub all lining up on that side of the football, adding Wells would add another dimension to an already elite offense.

Think about it: If the Texans can score enough, Mario Williams can really go after the quarterback.

16. San Diego Chargers: Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern California

Not a speed guy, but rather, a fear guy. He hits like you wouldn't believe and would make a good pair with the returning Shawne Merriman.

A possibility here is Aaron Maybin as another pass rusher, but Maualuga would bring a needed toughness to the Bolts on the defensive side of the ball. Plus, Maualuga comes from USC and won't tolerate anything less than excellence.

17. New York Jets: Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern California

I see a lot of drafts with the Jets taking Josh Freeman here, but why would they do that if Sanchez is still available? Simple: they wouldn't. Sanchez has polish, coming from an elite program, and is very coachable.

Even though there are some corners here that would help install what new head coach Rex Ryan is going to do on defense, Sanchez is too good a value to pass up.

18. Chicago Bears: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

Losing both of your starting offensive tackles is a bad thing in the offseason. Mr. "Blind Side" himself, Oher has all the talent in the world but is maddeningly inconsistent. Still, a player with his kind of talent at a position of need *should* be impossible to pass up.

If Oher is gone, I still think the Bears might look at Eben Britton here, the next-best OT available. There comes a point where Kyle Orton's health gets to be a liability if you wait too long to replace a LT.

PROJECTED TRADE: TB 19th OVERALL PICK & First ROUND PICK IN 2010 DRAFT to DEN for QB JAY CUTLER & ONE CONDITIONAL PICK.

19. Denver Broncos: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

Here, ladies and gentlemen, is the big news story as far as the middle of the first round. Several factors combine to make this a good move:

1) The Lions passed on Stafford in favor of Jason Smith, meaning that they, at No. 20, are still in the market for a franchise quarterback.

2) Sanchez is already off the board. If Denver doesn't make this trade and unload Cutler, it's virtually certain that either the Bucs or the Lions will take Freeman, as both teams are desperately in need of a starting QB, leaving the Broncos with fewer trading partners for their disgruntled QB.

The Bucs get a proven QB to solve their issues at that position, while the Broncos get the prerequisite two first-round picks for a franchise player. With this one here, Denver is then obliged to take Josh Freeman, who former QB coach Josh McDaniels will be able to develop for a year or two behind free-agent acquisition Chris Simms in his style.

20. Detroit Lions: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi

It was almost a dream scenario for the Lions: pass on Stafford at No. 1, and then manage to get a franchise QB with the other first round pick at No. 20. New coach Jim Schwartz almost owes this pick to Ernie Sims.

Also, keep in mind that most of Schwartz's packages with Tennessee relied on getting pressure with the front four in passing situations. It's impossible to truly replace Albert Haynesworth, but Jerry will be called upon to fulfill that role in Schwartz's system.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

The Eagles need somebody to spell Brian Westbrook. Of course, I could also see them going OT and taking Ebon Britton here—after all, that is what Andy Reid does. Still, Moreno makes a lot of sense and becomes the heir apparent to Westbrook once he leaves.

WR does make sense for the Eagles, but history shows that they ignore McNabb's requests for a true No. 1 receiver, despite the fact that when they had one they went to the big dance. So Moreno is the pick here.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

They made a big-time play for T.J. Houshmandzadeh in free agency, but were turned down. That means they still have to fill the WR hole through the draft, and Nicks happens to fit in...well, exactly where they are going to pick.

Look for Harvin, if he's still available (it's possible, I have him going earlier than most), but I think that one team in the teens, even if it isn't the 'Skins, will find Harvin's abilities too tempting to pass on.

23. New England Patriots: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State

This is a classic "best guy left on the board" scenario. He could go in the early teens, but with Denver taking Cushing and San Diego taking Maualuga, Maybin becomes the odd linebacker out.

He'll get swept up in a hurry by the "hoody" himself. Pair him with Jerod Mayo, and suddenly the Pats are (again) set at linebacker for years to come. The Patriots could also go CB here if Maybin doesn't fall into their laps.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest

As usual, getting into the early 20's is the time where teams will take players that have fallen through the cracks. If the draft does shake out this way, look for the Falcons to take a CB, like Smith, or maybe Darius Butler/D.J.

Moore depending on who they feel is the best corner. Of course, TE Brandon Pettigrew is also still available at this point, and I also wouldn't be surprised to see him go. Smith is a very smart corner who makes the most of his ability.

25. Miami Dolphins: Clay Matthews, LB, Southern California

The Dolphins have a pressing need at linebacker, and Chad Pennington's arm can't make use of Darrius Heyward-Bey's deep speed. Matthews is the best linebacker prospect still left on the board, and is a pretty good value for this part of the first round.

As an interesting side note, look for the 'fins to go after Patrick White if he falls to them in the second round. I don't even want to think about what he'd be like in the wildcat...

26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

Todd Heap is not the player he once was, and history shows that Ozzie Newsome will take the best player left on the board (with the exception of last year because the team decided there was such a glaring need at QB).

While Shannon Sharpe was still on the roster, Todd Heap was taken late in the first round. This will be a repeat scenario, only this time, Heap will be the one meant to eventually be replaced.

Pettigrew can do it all and will be a great addition for second-year man Joe Flacco.

27. Indianapolis Colts: James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State

Laurinitis's production means that he can't be overlooked, especially given the rap that Indy's defense takes as "fast and undersized." Laurinaitis adds some much needed toughness and is a playmaker, despite a weak 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine.

I could also see the Colts taking WRs Kenny Britt or Brian Robiskie, or maybe even DT Evander "Ziggy" Hood, but any of those players could be considered a reach. Remember, Laurinaitis was a top-10 player entering the draft.

He's only falling this far because of a poor 40-yard dash time. If you recall, Anquan Boldin, by the way, ran a 4.7 at the combine...he's still a pretty good player.

28. Philadelphia Eagles: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

The fifth offensive tackle to be taken in the first round, Britton takes the place of Tra Thomas protecting Donovan McNabb's blind side. Smart move by Philly to pass on Britton with their earlier pick and have patience dictate that they still get the man they need several picks later.

Britton is a great value at this point in the draft.

29. New York Giants: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

Plaxico Burress is going to do jail time; only an act of God would prevent that. The Giants proved last season that without Burress they weren't the same team. Assuming they're going to lose him, then, he has to be replaced.

They've done a great job addressing all of their other needs, so this one seems pretty easy: take the guy that can stretch the field and open up the run game. Heyward-Bey is a project; he's probably not as polished as some of the other receivers in the draft.

But with a 4.3 40-yard dash, and great game tape to back it up, he can really fly and open up the ground game for Brandon Jacobs and Co.

30. Tennessee Titans: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

With Albert Haynesworth leaving via free agency to the Redskins, Tennessee is obliged to replace his explosion on the defensive line. Ayers has rare explosion that can help mitigate the loss of the NFL's best interior lineman.

Ayers is probably a bit underrated coming from a losing program; I think he could be a really good player for years to come. Also look to see if the Titans take "Ziggy" Hood here to directly attempt to replace Haynesworth at the DT position rather than elsewhere along the D-Line.

31. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech

Johnson is a freakish athlete, measuring 6'7" and weighing in at over 260 pounds. Add a 4.6 40-yard dash to that and you've got yourself a world of potential. However, Johnson's game tape doesn't stack up to the numbers he put up at the combine.

He's a really risky pick, but if he pans out, he'll be a huge steal at the end of the first round. Also don't be surprised if Arizona goes RB to try and deal with their troubles at that position.

32. S**tsburgh Steelers: William Beatty, OT, Connecticut

OK, forgive the the pun, but I really hate the Steelers. I cannot stand to be in the same room as a terrible towel without ripping it in half. If I had one, I would use it to clean my bathroom.

Anyway, moving on. Any way you slice it, Pittsburgh had a pretty awful offensive line last year. Their defense was spectacular; there's a reason they won the big dance. But if they really expect to repeat, they're not going to be able to give up eight sacks in a game like they did against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Steelers' decision to take the last of the six possible first round tackles will likely be a good one; Beatty is an athlete with a lot of upside who could really surprise at the next level.

That's all folks- let's hear what you have to think. I'm especially interested in what people think about the situations with Stafford, Harvin, and the Cutler trade.

Steeler faithful who I just insulted: congratulations on winning your latest Super Bowl. However, as a Ravens/Deadbirds fan, I do not hate you any less. :)

Why Wide Receiver Is the Least Important Starting Position in the NFL

Brendan Majev — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 09:30:36 -0400

Inevitably, every time the NFL Draft rolls around, there are several teams that lack talent at several positions. Obviously, you hope that your team has at most two or three, and not between six and twenty-four (hello, Miami Dolphins); otherwise, you just suffered through a painful season.

Every position, including WR, has its merits. And every team, no matter how talented, needs one or two impact players on both sides of the ball, preferably more.

A basic analysis of the game of football reveals that the offense has to move the ball down the field. The defense has to stop them... okay, so now I sound like John Madden broadcasting. Bear with me for a minute.

The offense has the luxury of being able to cover up its weaknesses with its strengths. The defense can do the same thing, but to a much lesser degree. Whereas the offense can have a strong running game to divert attention from a bad passing offense, the defense CANNOT have a strong run defense to protect its poor pass defense. Obviously, a great pass-rushing DE can take a lot of pressure off of his secondary, and to a lesser extent, having two elite cornerbacks can help stop the run.

But an average offense, paired with a good defense, can cover up any weaknesses at the WR position to an exceptionally large degree.

I will not deny that there are TREMENDOUS benefits to having a top-flight WR- just look at what happened to Tom Brady's statistics once he finally had a receiving corps around him this past year, headed by Mr. Randy Moss.

But you also need to remember that the Patriots won three NFL titles without a single elite WR. Comparatively, WR is the least important starting position in the league for the following reasons.

1) A single weak defensive player can be targeted by a balanced offense. The offense has the ability to dictate the flow of the game- after all, they have the ball. If the player is a defensive lineman, the offense can run right at him. If the player is a linebacker, they can sucker him on a play action fake or run away from him if the player in question is slow. If the player is a defensive back, he can be caught out of position and give up a big play. To have a good defense, a team must have at least an average player at all eleven positions.

2) Without a good offensive line, any talent a WR has is worthless. Even if he is open two seconds into every play, a QB running for his life cannot consistently get the ball to his WRs, even if they are always wide open. Some QBs are better at avoiding pressure than others, but in the long run this rule holds true.

3) Without a good quarterback, the wide receiver is always forced to make adjustments to his pattern and cannot A) catch the ball in stride, or B) be his quarterback's target when he is open. A good QB requires great decision-making... and without that, the offense will lose the ball. The WR cannot make an impact from the sidelines.

In my mind, those reasons above firmly establish QB, OL, and the entire defense as the 17 most important positions in the league that are indispensable to a team's success. Obviously, the QB and OL cannot win the game by themselves- they need a little bit of help. But the question is- how much? Let us continue.

4) If a team has an elite WR, it can make up for a lack of a good RB and/or FB, true. However, a team with a good running game can usually get into 3rd-and-short situations rather than 3rd-and-long. The effect of this? The lack of receiving threats is diminished in importance.

5) If a team has an elite TE, he can create mismatches in coverage and even stretch the field vertically on occasion. He creates space for WRs by drawing double teams with the safety, leaving WRs one-on-one with CBs. He can also create space in the flat by drawing coverage to the middle of the field.

The main benefit to having a true #1 caliber WR is threefold. First, you have a possession receiver on 3rd down. This can be filled by the TE equally effectively in most cases. Second, it takes pressure off of the running game by forcing the safeties into deep coverage- something that can be done without by a great running game that runs through 8-man fronts anyway (and yes, I've seen it done- in the playoffs, see below). Thirdly, it gives you the ability to stretch the field. This alone cannot be truly filled by other players on the offensive side of the ball.

My main examples for why I believe that WR is the least important position are two teams: the Super Bowl winning Patriots and the Super Bowl winning Ravens of 2000.

Tom Brady, pictured above, was helped by a good (some might argue great) defense in each of his three Super Bowl wins. He did this without a true #1 receiver- the caliber of a Chad Johnson, Michael Irvin, Marvin Harrison, etc. He was better served by his tremendous defense and ability to find receivers when they were open- even if they weren't elite WRs.

The Baltimore Ravens in 2000 won the Lombardi Trophy with Trent Dilferas their starting QB. He went 7-1 as the starter en route to a win in the big game... and was then prompty cut and signed as the backup QB that he was. Mind you, I have a special place in my heart for Dilfer- he was part of my team's championship run. But then-rookie RB Jamal Lewis, running behind an O-Line anchored by future Hall of Famer Jonathan Ogden, was the source of the team's success- even against 8 man defensive fronts. The best receiver on that team may have been journeyman Qadry Ismail- hardly an elite player himself, although he did make some big catches during the season.

Neither team had an elite, game-changing WR... they covered this weakness with strength at QB in the case of the Patriots and strength in the running game in the case of the Ravens... and both teams had defenses who were not just good, but also had a knack for the big play.

If a team is looking for someone to stretch the field, then a WR makes sense. But why the Lions took so many WRs just because they were the best prospects on the board makes no sense to me... they had so many other, more pressing needs.

I would like to hear others' thoughts on this. I've held this opinion for a few years now and no one has yet managed to dissuade me... what do you guys think?

2008 NFL Mock Draft First Round: Who Wins Big?

Brendan Majev — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 14:12:37 -0400

Well, it's that time of year again- break out the draft boards and hope your team does well. A few teams in this mock draft get some real bargains by NFL-2008_NFL_Draft_Top_1-10_Players_Analyzed-080408">my draft board, notably Denver and Houston. As the High Holy Day of the NFL offseason approaches, only one thing is certain- your team's GM is losing sleep.

1. Miami Dolphins - Chris Long, DE, Virginia. Question: How do you rebuild an old, ineffective defense? Answer: Have an elite, high-motor defensive end to build around, that's how.

2. St. Louis Rams - Glenn Dorsey, DT, Louisiana State. The Rams need an identity on the defensive side of the ball. Now they have Dorsey AND Carriker? They could put ME in at linebacker and I'd be ok.

3. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College. The Falcons are in rebuilding mode. They should be, after their QB debacle the last offseason. Normally, I'd say that Jake Long should be their pick. Why, then, do I have them picking Ryan? They need a new face for the franchise. They can get a lineman in round 2.

4. Oakland Raiders - Sedrick Ellis, DT, Southern California. Opposing teams averaged 5 yards per carry running straight into the middle of the Raiders' defense. That is unacceptable. With Dorsey off the board, Ellis is the clear pick... the Raiders can't even afford to risk trading down, IMO.

5. Kansas City Chiefs - Jake Long, OT, Michigan. No, Raider fans, the Chiefs will not take McFadden either. Their offensive line blows, and with the top blocker still on the board, it's a no-brainer.

6. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. The Jets will not let McFadden past them. They got little production out of the backfield, though a large portion of that was a result of a weak offensive line. McFadden can't play all five OL positions and run the ball, but having him in the backfield will go a long way toward helping their running game.7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco 49ers)Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State. Talk about the right guy at the right time. New England's linebackersare all aging and there aren't any good young linebackers on this roster. They need to watch out for a trade-up from Cincinnati, who could really use Gholston as well.

8. Baltimore Ravens - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State. With the great Jonathan Ogden nearing retirement and players with marginal athleticism in the wings, Clady is the clear pick for the Ravens, despite a few other needs. As a Ravens fan, I have written an in-depth analysis of the Ravens' overall draft needs as well, shown here.

9. Cincinatti Bengals - Keith Rivers, OLB, Southern California. With Chris Long, Jake Long, Vernon Gholston, and Ryan Clady all off the board, Cincinnati will want to trade down- no one that they need is still on the board with this kind of value. But if they get stuck here, Rivers is their man- they lack too much at outside linebacker for them to justify any other pick.

10. New Orleans Saints - Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida. The Saints need a top-quality corner, and while Jenkins may not be elite, he'd certainly help, even if they moved him to safety. I think the only way they don't land Jenkins is if Cincinatti trades up for Gholston, in which case the Patriots might reach for Jenkins because of his versatility.

11. Buffalo Bills - Dan Connor, ILB, Penn State. While the Bills would prefer Rivers because he's a natural outside linebacker, Connor makes a lot of sense because he played with Posluzny at Penn State, mostly at outside linebacker until his senior season, at which point he moved back to ILB because... Posluzny had graduated. The Bills do need help at OLB. A No. 2 WR next to Lee Evans would also make sense, but they need a strong receiver rather than a fast one, so DeSean Jackson doesn't fit.

12. Denver Broncos - DeSean Jackson, WR, California. Dan Connor is the Broncos' man- they need an ILB so they can move D.J. Williams back to the outside. However, he went to the Bills, and Jackson would pair with Brandon Marshall to form a frightening WR tandem. Cutler would look much better with that kind of talent around him.

13. Carolina Panthers - Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami. With no Jackson to inspire argument, the only player Carolina needs that also is an elite pick is Phillips. His instincts leave a bit to be desired, but in terms of his physical tools, he draws comparisons to the Ravens' Ed Reed (a very good thing for any safety).

14. Chicago Bears - Branden Albert, OG, Virginia. With no top-flight QB available to work with Grossman, the best offensive lineman on the board is Albert. This one is pretty much a lock; no one else needs Albert ahead of the Bears- they need offensive tackles.

15. Detriot Lions - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona. While Cason doesn't have great speed, he doesn't need it in Detroit's Tampa-2 defensive scheme. He's one of the better players left on the board, and is a great playmaker for a group that allowed the highest completion percentage of any defensive unit in the league.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State. Antrel Rolle never panned out at the CB position- he was too slow. However, Rodgers-Cromartie is not. He's a real risk coming out of a small program, but has tremendous talents and might be the one to shore up the secondary.

17. Minnesota Vikings - Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson. The Vikings need a pass-rusher, so Derrick Harvey would also warrant consideration, but Merling's all-around ability makes him a better fit for the Vikings.

18. Houston Texans - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois. Ahman Green is getting old... the Texans need some young blood at the RB position. While Chris Williams and Jeff Otah warrant consideration, the Texans' line is good enough to justify taking a quality running back instead. Plus, Mendenhall is a top-10 quality player in the draft.

19. Philadelphia Eagles - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy. The signing of Asante Samuel helps... a lot. But the Eagles still need another quality defensive back more than anything else. With no safeties on the board, they'll take the best corner that fits them... and also happens to be a return specialist that they desperately need. If you're an Eagles fan and disagree with me, I do think Sheppard and Samuel will be a good tandem... but Sheppard hasn't played a full season since 2003.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt. While the Bucs have other needs, their O-Line allowed 36 sacks with opposing defenses trying to catch the relatively nimble Jeff Garcia. They have to get better in pass protection, and Williams is a good man to start with.

21. Washington Redskins - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida. They need a defensive end, and Harvey is the last top-tier DE left on the board as a pass rusher. In terms of run defense, he leaves something to be desired, but he can improve... and since 2003 the Redskins haven't had a true bust. Of course, they've had less of a chance to find busts because they trade so many picks...

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland Browns) - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas. If they stay here, and don't trade up for McFadden, this is the pick they'll make. He's the ideal complementary back for Marion Barber- fast and elusive. Compare that to "Marion the Barbarian" who seeks out contact, and the two will be able to keep defenses on their heels.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh. If anyone needs offensive linemen, it's the Steelers. The last really good one is Jeff Otah from down the road... not a difficult decision. The Steelers gave up 47 sacks last year and adding Otah would go a long way toward solving, or at least minimizing, that problem.

24. Tennessee Titans - Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State. Vince Young needs targets. He's got a solid running back in LenDale White and a relatively good offensive line, but right now he has no one to throw to. Some have him ranked above DeSean Jackson, but I just don't see it, so he'll fall to the Titans at No. 24.

25. Seattle Seahawks - Fred Davis, TE, Southern California. What they really need is a running back, but the guy that best fits them right now is the top tight end on the board. They'll take Fred Davis after watching the aging Marcus Pollard have age catch up to him in a hurry last year. Not a difficult pick given who's available.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami. They'll have to reach for their guy. All of the elite DEs are already off the board, and that's their absolute top need that they can't afford to wait and address. It's not out of the question for them to trade up- they need a pass rusher that badly.

27. San Diego Chargers - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina. Jamal Williams is still the man, but they need depth at this position because of his age and the toll of injuries. Balmer is the man to provide it. Rookie DTs rarely make an impact anyway, and Balmer would be learning from one of the best.

28. Dallas Cowboys - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas. They need a WR to back up their pair of 34-year-old WRs. While Owens and Glenn are solid, having another horse in the stable certainly wouldn't hurt. Sweed is big, strong, and physical, though he lacks elite speed. He is a potentially dominant red zone option... and if you're the Cowboys trying to win a Super Bowl, he's an obvious pick.

29. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis Colts) - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma. The 49ers need a receiver that isn't Arnaz Battle to be their No. 1 (Battle is considered a No. 3 caliber WR). Kelly is the best one left on the board, despite his lack of great speed, and is the obvious choice because... he's not replacing anyone.

30. Green Bay Packers - Aquib Talib, CB, Kansas. The Packers need a cornerback... and they're in luck, because Talib is considered by many a very good, even elite, CB. He's been burned by speedier but otherwise lesser athletes in college, so he may lack top-end speed. But he's still the best one available.

31. New England Patriots- TAKEN AWAY as punishment for SpyGate.

32. New York Giants - Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma. Smith is more of a safety than a corner, but he's done both and the Giants need both. This is not an especially difficult call... the Giants' secondary is OK, but looked better because of a monstrously formidable pass rush. This is their pick.

That's all folks, hope you enjoyed it. I'm always happy to hear feedback.

2008 NFL Draft: Top 10 Players Analyzed

Brendan Majev — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 18:22:46 -0400

1. Chris Long, DE, Virginia. He has to be the top of the board because he has a 90 percent chance of being Pro Bowler, and a sure starter barring an unforeseen injury.

It'd take a lot for me to even consider changing this pick.

He is already technically sound, tremendously strong, plays with high intensity, and has tremendous football awareness.

Players like this don't come along very often and most defensive ends play with finesse instead of power.

Long plays with power and the correct leverage to apply it. He'll be able to overmatch some offensive tackles that you never see beaten, and while he isn't fast, he isn't slow and possesses ability to pursue.

2. Glenn Dorsey, DT, Louisiana State. One of the most decorated defensive players in LSU history, he has the ability to anchor against two blockers and not give ground and uses his brute strength to overpower single defenders.

Leverage is also a key component of Dorsey's play.

He flat-out overwhelms defending centers with regularity, and has a wide variety of moves. Dorsey has some injury baggage, but not necessarily a level to be concerned about.

While he projects as a DT, he could probably play DE in a 3-4 scheme.

3. Jake Long, OT, Michigan. Long is the consensus top lineman in the 2008 draft, and I am inclined to agree.

He is a tremendous run blocker at both the first and second level, and finishes blocks effectively (often with defenders on their butts).

He's somewhat less effective as a pass blocker, but his pass blocking is not a concern as he locked down good pass rushers against Illinois, Florida, and Michigan State during the 2007 season.

While he may end up as a right tackle due to his limited agility, Long warrants a shot at the left tackle position.

4. Sedrick Ellis, DT, Southern California. He is a tremendous force inside and was an exceptionally difficult assignment because of his greatest strengths.

First, his ability to shed blocks. And second his inside quickness.

He has a tendency to occupy two blockers – a tremendously desirable attribute – and he also has a nose for the football.

While he may lack ideal size, he plays with tremendous quickness and shows the strength to bull rush defenders.

5. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. Clearly the elite runner on anyone's draft board, McFadden has the blazing speed that is so coveted by NFL teams at the RB position.

He has also proven to be a complete receiver out of the backfield and has the ability to be a game-breaking player. However, I'm not convinced about his power and durability between the tackles at the NFL level.

Reggie Bush, famed speed back out of USC, often turned the corner against slower college defenses. NFL defenses have much better lateral speed, and so McFadden will have to prove his mettle running at the teeth of a defense before the corner will open up for him on fakes or pitches.

I can't place him higher than No. 5 when the players above him are closer to being sure stars.

6. Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB Ohio State. What Chris Long is not, Vernon Gholston is.

Long is technical; Gholston is somewhat raw. Long is a tremendous football player; Gholston is a tremendous athlete. Long is strong; Gholston is fast.

He's a potential superstar pass rusher, something that can be very difficult to find, but has so far skated a little bit on sheer athletic ability.

At Ohio State, he was most often rushing the QB or occasionally dropping into zone coverage.

Like McFadden, he has amazing upside. But his lack of polish means that he could end up a bust, however unlikely that may seem given his physical tools. He's a real risk, but he will cause left tackles to lose sleep on Saturday nights.

7. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College. What separates Ryan from the other QB's is that he is an NFL-ready prospect. He is missing one thing: a proverbial "rifle arm."

However, for a team that needs a game manager-type QB, look no further – you won't find a better one – all but a handful of his interceptions came on the long balls. While he isn't a vertical passer, he made BC a force to be reckoned with a pretty average supporting cast.

He probably won't be the next Brady or Manning, but I'd wager an arm that he'll be a very solid starter for years to come.

8. DeSean Jackson, WR, California. Separation is the key for Jackson. If your defense sees him with the ball in space, hope that you don't give up six points within the next blink of your eye.

He's an explosive return man with elite 40 speed (4.32) and perhaps even better acceleration. He's not that effective against bump-and-run coverage, but if you miss him, you'd better have good recovery speed.

Jackson has improved his route running this past year and is fairly crisp most of the time. However, he's not very strong and might not be an over-the-middle receiver, along the lines of Ted Ginn.

He has the ability of a No. 1 receiver, especially if a team can regularly get him the ball in space.

9. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois. He's not a monster at 5 feet 11 inches, 210 pounds, but has impressive strength and power running inside.

He has good top-end speed, though not like that of McFadden, and reaches it quickly. He's a natural receiver coming out of the backfield, and was often asked to block incoming blitzers.

He does lack a variety of open-field moves, and while he his aforementioned speed is pretty good, he is more of a straight-line type runner when at top speed.

10. Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State. An underclassman, Clady is less polished than Long but is more of an athlete than his more highly ranked competitor.

Whereas Long excels in the running game, Clady may be more of a pass blocker, with great lateral agility, good strength, and good technique. He does finish off run blocks, but isn't quite as "nasty" and compensates with good explosion in his first step.

He's an impressive second-level blocker thanks to his athleticism, able to find a linebacker and take him out of the play. He's almost certainly a left tackle prospect given his aptitude at pass blocking.

OTHER NOTABLES & reasons left out of Top 10

11. Keith Rivers, OLB, Southern California. The top linebacker in the class may be more of a boom-or-bust type with a tendency to get fooled by fakes, nullifying his great athleticism.

12. Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida. A good corner, but maybe a better safety as he lacks great anticipation.

13. Dan Connor, ILB, Penn State. The latest from Linebacker U, Connor sometimes has too much trouble shedding blocks once a defender locks onto him.

14. Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami. Has tremendous upside, but lacks the superior instincts of a former Hurricane safety, Ed Reed.

15. Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona. He is a playmaker, but doesn't have the raw athletic talent to keep pace with the best receivers in the NFL. May compare with a Ronde Barber, who fits best in a Tampa 2 scheme.

The Baltimore Ravens: Analysis & Draft Needs

Brendan Majev — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 14:47:53 -0400

In 2007, the Ravens were a very bad team. 5-11 is miserable by anyone's standards, including the Miami Dolphins, especially since the Ravens lost to them, giving the 'Phins their only win. (If you are interested in my “most annoying moment as a football fan,” that truth is only the beginning. But I will not go into that here.) So now, armed with a new coaching staff led by John Harbaugh, the question is: how do the Ravens get back to the playoffs?

I realize that conventional wisdom says, "Start with offense" in almost every sport, including football, but we in Baltimore remember the 2000 season with a regular-season turnover ratio of +26, and appreciate that our defense scores more points than our offense. Starters are listed for both offense and defense, though important backups are also mentioned.

D-Line: DE Trevor Price, NT Kelly Gregg, DE/DT Haloti Ngata.

These three, when healthy, are elite players. Good teams win because of the players in the trenches. Pryce is the best pass-rusher of the three, and his injuries last season greatly hindered the Ravens' pass rush. Gregg is an ex-wrestler with very good strength and power, though I would not necessarily consider him elite, and is a good run-stopper in the middle. Ngata is a power end, who can stuff the run very effectively, and when the Ravens run 4-3 looks, Ngata and Gregg are the big plugs up front. The Ravens very much need Trevor Price to return to 2006 form.

Linebackers: DE/OLB Terrell Suggs, ILB Ray Lewis, ILB Bart Scott, OLB Jarrett Johnson.

The re-signing of Suggs meant that the Ravens kept their best pass rusher. While I would not put him in the league of a Derrick Brooks or an in-his-prime Ray Lewis, Suggs is a Pro-Bowl player. Lewis, while aging, is still the heart and soul of the defense. He is effective primarily because of his awareness on the field.

Scott is a very good player against both the run and the pass, possessing good instincts and a nose for the ball. Johnson is the weakest of the group, but he is still adequate, and backup OLB Antwan Barnes has an extraordinary ability to rush the passer.

Defensive Backs: CB Chris McAlister, CB Samari Rolle, FS Ed Reed, SS Dawan Landry.

McAlister, though he spent most of last year injured, was still a fairly dominant player. Rolle is solid, although certainly not elite. Reed is the best player on the defense, and is excellent in both pass coverage and run support, although he is at his best when he gambles. Landry is a big-time hitter, and while he took a step back last season, he showed something as a rookie that warrants him ownership of the starting job.

Depth is needed here; CB Corey Ivy is no better than a nickel corner and other cornerbacks could not compete with NFL receivers when McAlister and Rolle were out with injury.

OVERALL

Still a solid unit, though many of its members are getting up in age. If Owner Steve Bischotti is serious about getting back to the Super Bowl with this nucleus of players, then the defense is still solid enough to hold down the fort for a few more years, though the window is probably starting to close.

O-Line: LT Jonathan Ogden, LG Jason Brown, C Mike Flynn, RG Ben Grubbs, RT Marshal Yanda.

For obvious reasons, the biggest question about this offseason for the Ravens' offensive line is whether Ogden will retire. The future Hall of Famer has not yet announced a decision, but regardless of whether he returns for this season, it is necessary to line up a replacement. OT Adam Terry has not yet panned out; rookie Yanda beat him out for the starting RT job and I am not convinced that he is the answer.

Jared Gaither is a big man, but is just too unpolished at this point in his career. Yanda is technically sound, but may not have tremendous upside at the tackle position in the NFL. The interior line, however, is solid. Brown and Grubbs can move the pile on the ground and are also good pass blockers, while Flynn, though nearing the end of his career, is still a good player.

Tight Ends & Receivers: TE Todd Heap, WR Mark Clayton, WR Derrick Mason, WR Demetrius Williams.

Heap, when healthy, is among the most dominant tight ends in the NFL. Unfortunately, he never seems to be healthy, and was out again for most of 2007. Clayton took a step back in the 2007 season, not catching a single TD pass. Mason took up a lot of the slack, but he is getting up in age and no longer has the speed of a number one receiver. Williams, too, was injured, and has great speed. He was injured most of this year (sprained ankle), but when healthy in 2006, he was a real home-run threat. For the upcoming season, the only change that needs to be made is in the play of Clayton, who needs to step up.

Running Backs: RB Willis McGahee, RB Musa Smith, FB Le'Ron McClain.

McClain played very well, and was perhaps even a little bit better than expected as the top, true fullback of the 2007 draft. Musa Smith is an above average backup, though he is more of a third-down back. Finally, Willis McGahee was the Ravens' offensive MVP. He was able to pound the ball between the tackles and has great speed to get to the edge. Even more impressively, he did this while the Ravens had difficulty in the passing game, when teams were able to load up against the run. He became the centerpiece of the offense and should remain so for several years.

Quarterbacks: Steve McNair, Kyle Boller, Troy Smith.

Entering the 2008 season, the Ravens have "mystery meat" at the QB position. McNair, while he has had a fantastic career, appeared to show signs of his age last season, and was eventually benched in favor of Boller, and then eventually Smith.

Say what you want about McNair, he is a warrior who has historically found ways to win "unwinnable" games. Boller, while not a starter, is an adequate backup who has experience. He never developed into the franchise QB he was supposed to become. And finally, with the last pick of last year's fifth round, the Ravens selected Heisman winner Troy Smith out of Ohio State.

In the last two games of 2007 he showed why he won the Heisman, driving down the field against Miami, tying the game at 16, and then playing relatively well against Pittsburgh, even if they were playing many of their backups. McNair appears to be the incumbent starter, despite his fumbling problems of last year, with Boller and Smith vying for the backup job.

OVERALL

The offense can run, courtesy of McGahee, but last year could not pass. For the Ravens to win, they need to be able to do both, and if Ogden retires without a real replacement, they may not be able to do either.

DRAFT OVERVIEW

The Ravens need three things: a replacement for Ogden, depth at cornerback, and consistency at the QB position. But the Ravens need only address two of those in the draft.

FIRST ROUND PICK: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State.

While the Ravens arguably have a more pressing need at CB, it is time to draft a physical freak to guard the quarterback's blind side—all of the Ravens' quarterbacks are right-handed, and if there is no pressure on a quarterback, that QB is much better. The Patriots' loss to the Giants illustrates this: Tom Brady was under pressure for the entire game.

Additionally, the top CB in this draft (Mike Jenkins, USF) is probably a bit of a reach at the eigth spot, and history has shown that Ozzie Newsome will take the top player on the board. If Jake Long falls this far, he is the obvious pick, but it is very unlikely that he will make it out of the top five. That leaves only the possibility of Matt Ryan falling to number eight.

However, even if both players are on the board, Clady is still the better pick because OT is a more pressing need. Also, the Ravens already have depth at OT...they potentially need a starter, and it is easier to find one in the first round.

SECOND ROUND PICK: Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana.

What the Ravens could have addressed by reaching in the first round, they will get through patience in the second. Porter's good speed, physical coverage, and exceptional closing burst make him a good fit for the Ravens' defensive scheme. He is not a tremendous hitter and is still developing, but the Ravens need depth at corner, not a starter, and Porter would have time to develop.

THIRD ROUND PICK: Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida.

With the release of veteran RB Mike Anderson, the Ravens are down to two running backs. That is unacceptable in the NFL and they need to draft another one. With a compensatory third rounder, Smith makes a lot of sense. (Matt Forte' out of Tulane would be the ideal choice, but it is likely he'll be off the board.)

Smith has good acceleration and is a natural runner with good vision. He lacks prototypical straight-line speed and competed against the C-USA, but is tall and has the frame to add a few pounds without losing speed.

IN THE LATER ROUNDS, LOOK FOR THE RAVENS TO DRAFT (NOT NECESSARILY IN THIS ORDER)

Another CB. The Ravens' backups last year proved, with extensive playing time, that they could not measure up to starting receivers. It certainly couldn't hurt to have an excess of skill position players here.

An athletic WR, with upside, probably a speedster. Derrick Mason is on his way out, and while he produced last season, it is very unlikely he will be doing the same thing two years from now. Devard Darling has never lived up to being a third round pick, and he too could be replaced.

THE RAVENS SHOULD NOT DRAFT A QUARTERBACK.

The last thing the Ravens need is another player to mess things up for the current QB situation. Fortification of the O-line with Clady is supposed to protect McNair, and if he still plays poorly, Troy Smith is a proven winner at the college level.

At the pro level, he always did his job, and according to many of the Ravens' offensive players, did not act like a rookie in the huddle. Smith was effective at Ohio State—no small program—and had to see over or around his tall offensive linemen there. He did so, and put up prolific numbers en route to a Heisman trophy, despite his small size.

I think he is a winner who will produce, given the chance. In my opinion, it does not make sense to have new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron bring in another QB so he has to split time tutoring two young quarterbacks.

If the Ravens pick a QB, it should be the top prospect on the board for value, and Clady is still the most important piece of the puzzle, so Matt Ryan should not be the pick, even if he's still there.

I'm Brendan and try to grade me on a slight curve for my first article—thanks for reading.