Bleacher Report - Articles by nick old

NL East 2009 Prediction: Mets in First? Braves a Sleeper?

nick old — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:03:30 -0400

The top spot in the NL East, much like the AL East, is a three-way battle once more this year.

Of the Mets, Phillies, and Braves, who will take the title? Let's have a look...

New York Mets

The Mets melted down for a second straight season in 2008. They are determined not to let this happen again. One heartbreaking finish is enough, but two was unbearable.

A big part of their meltdowns have come from their inability to finish games, and subsequently, to finish the regular season. It seems that when the pressure is on, they haven't answered.

Problems Addressed:

The Mets have gone head first in addressing their late-inning pitching problems by nabbing J.J. Putz—a dominant closer in his own right—as the setup man, and Francisco Rodriguez as their closer. K-Rod is not only the best closer in the game, he's the most electrifying, and he's had the best season a closer has ever had.

Offense:

Disgusting. They have the best offense in the NL East. The kids from Queens are fast, powerful, and hit for average: the trifecta. Jose Reyes may be the most fun player to watch in Major League Baseball today.

What makes the Mets' offense better than the Phillies is that they have meaningful switch hitters and are completely balanced with their right-handed and left-handed hitters.

Reyes sets the table from either side. Luis Castillo does the same in the two-hole (or else David Murphy will hit there, who is drawing early comparisons to Don Mattingly). After that you pitch to a righty (David Wright), then you have to pitch to either a lefty (Carlos Delgado) or another switch hitter (Carlos Beltran).

This does a number on opposing teams' bullpens. They simply have to suck it up and run one pitcher out there and hope he can handle them on either side of the plate.

Defense

Multiple Gold Glover Beltran is in center field, flanked in left by a youngster with energy, and in right by the solid Ryan Church. The outfield is an asset to a fly ball pitcher like Johan Santana. The infield is slick at every single position with some gold glovers mixed in. The Mets should be way above average in fielding.

Pitching

The staff will be above average. They have their true ace and some solid guys behind him. Guys typically pitching at the No. 3 or 4 spot are vying for the No. 5 spot in the rotation; a nice luxury to have. They include Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding, and the uber-durable Livan Hernandez.

The bullpen is in great shape for the 8th and 9th innings, leaving the 7th for Pedro Feliciano. Sean Green and the rest will make their spots through the rest of the game when needed. This bullpen is upgraded significantly with the addition of the late-inning help.

Predicted Finish: First Place

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies won the World Series last season, breaking a 25-year championship-less streak for the city of Philadelphia. It was the longest such streak for a four-sport city. The Phillies won on timely hitting, clutch pitching, and plain guts (and also because Jimmy Rollins is Nostradamus).

Addressed Problems

The Phillies addressed most of their problems either at the beginning of last season or before the trade deadline. This offseason, they didn't want to fix what wasn't broken, so they simply added depth. Smart.

They have five capable outfielders who can all hit (Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Matt Stairs, Shane Victorino, Geoff Jenkins), and we know what their infield hitters can do.

Offense

The Phillies offense is just as scary as the Mets—and eerily comparable—but it is more manageable. Unlike the Mets, the Phillies are less balanced on which side of the plate their batters stand. The Phillies are heavily left-handed.

They have some platoon possibilities to offset this (Werth and Jenkins, Greg Dobbs and Pedro Feliz), but their biggest boppers are Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, both lefties. Rollins provides switch-hitting ability, but once you get past him, lefty relievers can come in to challenge the Phils' most dangerous guys.

After coming off a series with the Mets, this would seem like a birthday present. The Phillies will hit well against the Mets and Braves, though, because their two rotations are heavily right-handed.

Defense

Feliz is a marvel at third and doesn't get enough credit. In fact, the three best-fielding third basemen in the National League are all in this division (Wright, Feliz, and Chipper Jones). And I'm not totally convinced David Wright is the best one.

Rollins owns a Gold Glove. Utley and Howard are improving their defense, but if you're going to hit one on the ground, you still want it to be to their side.

The catching is quite good; they have Chris Coste and Carlos Ruiz who can both hit a little as well, and they added Ronnie Paulino for insurance. The Phillies are a top-half-of-the-league fielding squad, but not sensational.

Pitching

Cole Hamels has it figured out. Brett Myers is back in the rotation where he belongs. Blanton is no slouch. The No. 5 spot isn't as competitive as it is for the Mets, but J.A. Happ, Chan Ho Park, and possibly Carlos Carrasco give some insurance for a solid back end of the rotation.

The bullpen is well taken care of and probably deeper than the Mets', with names like Lidge, Romero, Condrey, Madson, Durbin, and Eyre. They will make up for any rotation woes.

Predicted Finish: Second Place (But a close one)

Atlanta Braves

The Braves were competitive for most of the season last year. They fell off at the end, but it was a miracle they were even surviving until late summer.

No team was destroyed by injuries the way the Braves were. Their top four starters and top three relievers all missed at least two months of the season.

In the Mets' broken-heart case, they brought it on themselves; for the Braves, it was an un-opposable, wrathful curse.

The Braves will take more in-depth explaining because they have far more uncertainties than the Mets and Phillies.

Addressed Problems

They needed two top-of-the-line pitchers; they added three, but none are true aces. They needed to add a power-bat, but instead added an above average contact-bat with some power.

All in all, the Braves addressed their offseason needs well, but not spectacularly well.

Offense

The Braves aren't close to having the power bats boasted by the Mets and Phillies. They probably don't even have a guy who will hit 30 homers. However, they do have some "professional" hitters.

The Braves missed out on Griffey, but landed Garret Anderson. He'll hit .300 against righties and lefties and be more durable than "The Kid" would have been, though less powerful. Even if he platoons with Matt Diaz, who destroys left-handed pitching, left field will be an area of production for Atlanta.

Gregor Blanco, Josh Anderson, and prospect Jordan Schafer are battling for the center field spot, and all are capable. Anderson will steal you blind, Schafer is a great combo guy (a potential perennial 25/25 guy). Also, Jeff Francoeur will be better than last year. He'll hit 20+ homers with at least a .270 average.

Chipper Jones finally won a batting title while hitting .364 and whacking 22 dingers. This season he plans to even out his production with more homers, and likely a smaller average. 25+/.310+ is expected.

Left-handed hitter Kelly Johnson can hit 20 per year every year if he plays enough, but he often platoons at second base with Martin Prado (a righty); both players provide solid offense.

Expect Casey Kotchman to hit his stride this season. He is comfortable now and doesn't have to deal with family issues.

Overall, the Braves offense will be more improved than most expect since many players are coming back from "off" years.

Defense

The left side of the infield is a black hole, just as it is with the Mets and Phillies. Chipper Jones should have won a Gold Glove by now (the year David Wright got his first, both Chipper and Feliz outperformed Wright). Yunel Escobar is fundamentally sound with a strong arm, and Kotchman has the slickest first base glove in the division.

The outfield is solid. Garret Anderson plays his position well, all the center field candidates can go get it, and Francoeur has a Gold Glove and a rifle for an arm. The defense should be a top-third D.

Pitching

The Braves missed many of their initial targets for a true ace, but Derek Lowe should be solid (as most good sinker-ballers are) in that roll. The club added Javier Vazquez to chew up innings, but don't forget that he still has nasty stuff. Both these pitchers log consistent 200+ innings per year.

With an utterly depleted 2008 rotation, Braves GM Frank Wren took that stat very seriously and got two of the most durable pitchers available. Young Jair Jurrjens won't have the pressure of being at the top of the rotation and newcomer Kenshin Kawakami is a bonus pick up who will add strong depth.

The No. 5 spot is pretty much a given for Tom Glavine, especially since he's the sole left-handed candidate, and a veteran presence (not to mention a future hall of famer).

Jorge Campillo will likely end up spot starting and in long relief with Jeff Bennett.

Jo-Jo Reyes will begin the season in the minors.

Prospect Tommy Hanson will begin the season below Triple-A, but won't be down their too long. The first injury to the rotation will have him flying to Atlanta. The kid's a monster, and probably the second coming of John Smoltz.

Furthermore, Tim Hudson returns in August (but don't be surprised if he becomes trade bait at the deadline).

The last third of every game is locked down with the now-healthy trio of Peter Moylan, Rafael Soriano, and Mike Gonzalez. The Braves will have a good lefty specialist in either Boone Logan or Eric O'Flaherty, and expect Blaine Boyer to really emerge as a dominant middle reliever.

The Atlanta Bullpen will be as strong, if not stronger, than the Phillies' and Mets', although all three will be assets to their teams.

Predicted Finish: Third Place (Again, very close)

Summary

All three teams will beat up on each other over the course of the year and will have to make sure to win their series' against the Marlins and Nationals. Thus, every division game for these three teams will be huge.

I see the teams finishing in this predicted order, but that's barring unforeseeable injuries. Expect the difference between first and third to be no more than a handful of games. As is always the case in close races, the winner will be the healthiest.

A.L. Pitching Dream Team 2008

nick old — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 17:01:24 -0500

Here, I will create my personal pitching "dream team" from the American League, based on 2008, as has been requested of me. I will give a brief synopsis/analysis of each pick. I will select a starting rotation, Cy Young winner, four relievers, and one closer. Since baseball is a stat-driven sport, I will use statistics to help make my decisions. Obviously, I am a big fan of making decisions on more than stats, so the intangibles will be taken into consideration as well (intimidation, clutch performers, etc.).

First, let's start with the Cy Young winner.

Cy Young

Can you really go with anyone besides Cliff Lee? The guy led the league in wins, ERA, win-loss ratio, and was lights out all year. To go 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA is to be the most focused player in the marathon that is Major League Baseball. Lee located his fastball well enough for an incredible 5:1 K/BB ratio. He is also my ace. Kudos, sir. Kudos.

Starter No. 2

Roy Halladay, of course. He snags another Cy Young if it isn't for Cliff Lee's incredible season. He dials up 20 wins again and also boasts a sub-three ERA (2.78). He had a lot of decisions (20-11), which means that he logged a lot of hours. If you rock a sub-three ERA in the American League, you are a man amongst boys. An unbelievable 6:1 K/BB ratio doesn't hurt either.

David Eckstein as your shortstop is just one example of how little offense he had helping him. Tag most of the 11 losses on his teammates, who use bats for their paychecks.

Starter No. 3

Let's go with "Moose." Mike Mussina, who had astonishingly never won 20 games did so this year. To the tune of 20-9, at an age and point in his career where no one believed him capable of such. Good shootin', Mussina. He also had a 3.37 ERA. When the Yankees were losing all year, at least they knew they could rely on the man with the vicious knuckle-curve. He also had a 5:1 K/BB ratio. Well done, old-timer.

Starter No. 4

Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice K is the most painful pitcher in baseball to watch. His games last for four-plus hours, routinely (and in Boston, no less—where it snows in July). But he may also be the most painful pitcher to bat against. He will not throw a here-it-is-hit-it pitch to you, even though he has good velocity. As angst-filled as I get when watching him pitch, he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in only 29 games. Was he worth the money? Probably.

Starter No. 5

I'll take Jon Lester here. This kid will melt you hair with his fastball. He threw a no-hitter. He's a baller, plain and simple. He didn't have a whole lot of decisions (he went 16-6), but he had a good win-loss ratio and ERA (3.21). He also had almost a 3:1 K/BB ratio.

Closer

Obvious. Though some may pick Francisco Rodriguezfor the Cy Young, as dominant as he was, I couldn't do it. We've seen similar seasons to this from closers. It seems to happen fairly often for them. Not this great of course, but close. Cliff Lee had to do it while logging over 200 innings. But nonetheless, K Rod was disgusting this year and closed like a champ. He set the all-time record with 62 saves. Yo quiero esto hombre con la pelota en sus manos.

Reliever No. 1

Joey Devine. A reliever with a 6-1 record? Easy pick. Not to mention a superhuman 0.59 ERA.

Reliever No. 2

Devine's teammate, Brad Ziegler. What a two-headed monster these guys were for Oakland's bullpen this past year. Ziggy was 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA.

Reliever No. 3

How about Grant Balfour for the Rays? The guy was 6-2 with a nearly 4:1 K/BB ratio. I know records don't really matter that much with relievers, but all these guys kept runs off the board while re-energizing their clubs with their lights-out pitching. Balfour also had a 1.54 ERA.

Reliever No. 4

This was the toughest spot for me to decide. Brian Bruney gets the nod because in his time in the Yankees' 'pen this season, he didn't have save opportunities often turn into non-saves. He was a middle reliever with a sub-two ERA (1.83) and almost a strikeout per inning. Also, he didn't record a loss in going 3-0.

So there you have it. There is my 2008 A.L. pitching dream team. No way we win less than 120 games if they actually played together. Pitching wins.

Les Miles is Losing...Told You So

nick old — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 12:26:39 -0500

The things that seem obvious to me may not seem so to most (as I have come to learn). I do not make outlandish predictions to garner attention. I make predictions that many do not understand because they haven't exercised independent, non-guided thought.

Perhaps they don't possess the capacity for such thought (you would be surprised how many people are actually incapable of this) it's not easy. But the predictions I make are extremely logical. I also take into account the intangibles.

People think that throwing stats around in conversation makes their case. Though stats do aid an argument, they do not MAKE the argument.

The truth is, the intangibles (weather, emotion, clutch decision-making, coaching decisions, your gut, etc.) are what influence and create stats, not the other way around.

The LSU faithful got all torn up this summer when I said that the SEC West race was wide open when Ryan Perrilloux got booted from the team. Would anyone like to question me now?

No one could have predicted exactly how the two QBs would perform for LSU, which is why I didn't. But you knew they would struggle.

Two guys who were new to the program who may not have really sucked in the offense last season (because everyone knew Perrilloux was to be the starter) were now expected to run the offense of the defending National Champs.

Tiger fans wouldn't believe this because they didn't want to (that whole independent thought thing).

I then talked about how Les Miles really isn't that great of a coach. Gasp! "He's won a National Championship. His record is so-and-so!"

Intangibles, people.

Les Miles is losing recruits to the Urban Meyer's and Nick Saban's of the world. LSU fans won't accept that Saban and his staff are far superior to Miles and his. Once Bo Pelini left, you knew that the staff wasn't that great anymore.

I understand that LSU fans are probably the most passionate around. But for them to have such passion, they can't allow for objectivity. If they had objectivity, they wouldn't be in Miles' corner as much as they are.

Miles has made questionable call after questionable call in his career at LSU. He proved last year that, yes, someone can be lucky for an entire year.

There is no doubt that LSU was the best team in the country last year. But more and more of the uber recruits signed by Saban were leaving LSU due to graduation.

Saban taught these players to practice, study, play, and live like champions. Not taking away from Les Miles as a teacher, but that's a tough act to mimic. You either have it or you don't. He may have a little of "it," but nothing like his predecessor has.

I also spoke of how Miles was geared to bolt for Michigan. This is truth. Kirk Herbstreit let the cat out of the bag, and a previously in-the-dark LSU administration quickly threw huge contract at Miles (for about a nickel more money than Saban makes... hmm) after he had a desperate emergency news conference to cover his own hide.

He didn't want such a good football team to fall apart and lose his chance at an SEC and National Championship. It worked and Miles made the best decision for his team...kind of.

Les Miles was now stuck. He promised not to leave and did not want to look like Saban had as a betrayer. Or as Miles calls him, "devil." If Miles sounds threatened by LSU's first love (whom we never forget), that's because he is.

He knew last year that Saban was going to steal more of his recruits and that he would have to play him every year. The Bo Schembechler disciple was headed to his alma mater.

Schembechler was a father figure for Miles. He also knew he could recruit better at Michigan with less competition for recruits.

Miles is not a dumb guy. He just makes stupid, irrational decisions. The emergency press conference to deny allegations of his departure was a good one in the short term, but not in the long term.

Evidence: this season. With huge expectations and the most talented mix of offensive linemen and defensive front seven, Miles is being out-coached.

There are two kinds of coaching decisions: 1) decisions that help your team, and 2) no decisions at all, just letting the team feel its way through games and going with conservatism.

The former will win games. The latter won't win games, but it also won't lose games. Then there is Les Miles, who introduced a third kind of coaching decision to us: decisions that hurt his team.

All the fourth down "go-for-it's" are ridiculous and can hurt LSU just as much as they helped. Last year was the luckiest season I have ever seen by a coach/team.

If Miles' preposterous fourth-down conversion percentage were any lower last year, the Bayou Bengals would not be the defending National Champions this year.

It is true that going for it on fourth can energize your team, but it can also be detrimental to their psyches.

Miles was simply outclassed yesterday. He knew how good Alabama's defense was and how Jarrett Lee, a 19-year old kid, had been turning the ball over a lot. Yet he refuses to game plan with this in mind.

Charles Scott and Keiland Williams are running well. Don't let Lee lose you the game. It's too much pressure for a guy in his situation. LSU has more talent than Alabama, and they almost won the game because of it.

Neither the team nor Jarrett Lee lost the game. Nor did Saban and Alabama win it. Les Miles lost it, just as I predicted he might.

He had Lee throwing the ball all over Tiger Stadium. Lee's QB rating was awful. He was showing no improvement, he had no confidence, yet Miles forced him to the air. Well, he and his coordinator. But Miles has ultimate control.

Overtime is the perfect example.

Not wanting to be forced to kick again for the win after the field goal try at the end of regulation was blocked, even Nick Saban made a questionable decision to throw to Julio Jones.

But at least we can sort through his thought process: the best receiver in the stadium in one-on-one coverage; not wanting to have to kick another field goal for the win; taking a shot when they least expect, etc.

Les Miles, on the other hand, effectively cost his team the game by having Lee throw. What does Lee do? He throws to a double-covered receiver and is intercepted. The pick all but sealed the victory for the Tide.

You have the ball first. You have got to be conservative. Especially when you have an offensive line that dominated Alabama's front seven, especially in the first half.

I realize that the Alabama run defense had stiffened in the second half, but you take away your team's confidence when you don't allow them to run the ball...especially in overtime when you HAVE to run it; AND when you have the ball FIRST.

Point taken?

Les Miles and LSU are still going to be pretty good the next few years, but don't be surprised when they have not-so-great teams.

They have more talent than any other team in the SEC, but Miles' decision-making will neutralize it. Luckily for Miles, he has a great recruiting base in Louisiana, unlike Tennessee's Phil Fulmer, he doesn't have to go far for talent.

This will save him until he leaves the school. He will still have a good career record, but when that day comes, remember who predicted yet another logical/obvious scenario.

If Rich Rodriguez can't vindicate the terrible season the Wolverines are having (which I also predicted) in the next couple years, Miles will head north, err... home.

The BCS System: How Parity in College Football Today Demands a Change

nick old — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:52:15 -0500

The BCS system is flawed. Did I just change anyone's life?

Didn't think so.

We have all known since Auburn got royally shunned from a National Championship game after going undefeated a few years ago that the BCS was ridiculous.

The problem has been that nobody knows who is in control. Whom do we blame? It's much like a little kid throwing a stink bomb into a crowd then running to a safe perch to watch the masses go into chaos.

We all know that the pro-BCSers are those who make more money than God from the Bowl games.

Ask the Pac-10 commish, Tom Hansen. He avoided the truth. His answers to the BCS question a few days ago on a local ESPN radio show in Los Angeles were comical at best.

He claimed no one would want to watch a USC-Ohio State game in January. All together now: BULL.

The better question is: “Who wouldn't want to see that?”

No, I couldn't stand seeing USC having to play under Lake Erie in the dead of winter. He suggested they wouldn't be able to put people in the stands to watch a game such as this at a non-neutral site in a playoff atmosphere.

Tell me: how great would it be to have USC forced to leave SoCal and taste what a real winter is like? "Oh my, it's SO cold here. It's not 70, sunny, and breezy. Whatever will we do?"

Well, USC, you will have to man up like the rest of the world and play football when your receivers can't feel their hands.

Think about that. Why does the Pac-10 endorse the spread so heavily? And the Big 12? Because in MOST of those states, inclement weather isn't an issue.

Big 10: Penn State uses it, but they can run the ball. SEC: Florida uses it, but they have palm trees everywhere (thus weather in winter that allows for circulation in players' extremities)...and they can run the ball (Tebow). This may seem a little juvenile, but think about it. It makes sense.

The reason for that little digression was to point out that if we have a playoff, people will see less gimmicks all over the place. The high-flying offenses of the Pac-10 and the Big 12 will have to play semi-final games against the defenses of the SEC.

The conferences will soon realize that every year when the SEC ends up just playing itself for the National Title that maybe the pansy spread needs to be tweaked.

"Oh, but look at Florida, they dominate with the spread."

No, Florida dominates with Tim Tebow. "But he wasn't even the quarterback in their National Championship." Nope. But he was unstoppable running the ball between the tackles, even when the defense knew it was coming.

There is nothing more demoralizing to a defense than knowing what's coming and being powerless to stop it. Now, watch what happens when they lose Tebow and they have to scramble to find a power runner.

There were two big questions coming into this year. First, does the Big 12 play any defense? And second, does the SEC play any offense?

Wouldn't we like to know. Well we won't know until the SEC Champ plays the Big 12 champ (national title game, which is the most likely scenario).

But aren't we tired of getting jacked up for the National Championship games just to watch one team maul the other? The last two years the Big 10 got destroyed by Florida and LSU, respectively. Speed kills.

Your team has a cutesy offense that is essentially basketball on turf? The SEC will beat you with defense, because your defenses don't have the speed, talent, or tenacity of its defenses. Your conference's defenses may not be able to keep up with its offenses, but the SEC's can.

Everyone acted like Texas looked so unbeatable. Like the Longhorns would hands-down beat Texas Tech. I did not share this sentiment. I watched, what I refer to as Texas' "money route," burn Oklahoma State for their two biggest plays in that game a couple weeks ago.

Oklahoma St. lost by four points, and the money route went for a touchdown to Jordan Shipley, and a late huge gain inside the Cowboy's red zone, also to Shipley. It should have been so easily defended.

The defense is in man-to-man coverage. Two receivers to the left for the Horns (Shipley in the slot). The outside receiver fakes a comeback screen while Shipley runs a wheel route.

The inside cornerback on both these occasions simply watches Shipley run by him, in which case Colt McCoy lofts a pass deep down the sideline with Shipley wide open and the spellbound cornerback chasing.

Keep in mind that McCoy never pump-fakes to freeze the defenders. Even if he does, in man coverage, the cornerback should be in Shipley's face.

This would not happen in the SEC. Both corners would be in the face of both receivers, and neither could outrun them. Thus, the 40-yard completion never happens. Punt.

All of a sudden, we're talking about seven less points than you would see against teams who don't play defense like those Southern boys. Thus, Texas becomes very beatable with their "good" offense and Oklahoma State wins the game.

In Texas Tech's case, they just beat Texas at their own game. Plus, if you knew anything about the Red Raiders, you had to know that they would play better defense than Texas.

I don't mean to go on a pro-SEC rant, but it seems obvious to me that the spread offense is the same as sitting around waiting for a three-run homer in baseball. It usually happens when the team has a power-hitting lineup.

You will win a lot of games. However, there are times where the three-run homerun doesn't come. But, uh-oh, your team doesn't know how to play small ball and move runners over, while the other team has been doing it all game.

Now it's the seventh inning and it’s too late. This is the same for the spread versus SURE-FIRE strong defense.

We live in an instant-gratification circus in 2008, and no one seems to remember why teams used to run the ball all the time. It's not because they couldn't pass, it was because they knew that methodical smash-mouth football would win the championships.

It's easy to have an off-game on offense, but rarely does a defense have an off-game. They are just two extremely different concepts.

Can the SEC play offense? Georgia and Florida put up 50+ on LSU. Alabama and Florida put up 40+ on Georgia. Florida put up 60+ on Kentucky. All are usually very good teams defensively.

It just proves that the SEC is FORCED to play smart, balanced football because you can't get away with throwing the ball 60 times per game.

Ask Steve Spurrier. His Gator teams were know for the "Fun 'n Gun" offense, but they were actually incredibly balanced (see Fred Taylor, Terry Jackson) when they were great.

Maybe I'm wrong. But then again, that statement is the reason we need a playoff in college football.

We have no earthly clue as to which is true between these two questions and these two conferences this year. Who is right? Decide it on the field.

An eight-team playoff does this. Don't even choose them by conference. Simply take the top eight teams standing at the end of the Conference Championships and let them bludgeon each other for bragging rights.

Here is where Penn State could put this whole thing into motion.

Penn State will almost certainly be undefeated at the end of the year. But voters are tired of watching the Big 10 get trounced in the National Championship game.

Also, many people believe that USC, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Florida are better than the Nittany Lions, even though they're undefeated and only two teams on that list is undefeated (and likely neither team will be at the end of the season because their conferences are so tough).

The voters believe that more than one on this list of teams is better than Penn State, which means that, theoretically, Penn State shouldn't be allowed to play in the Championship game (because they would then be third or lower).

On the other side of this, everyone has a soft spot for Joe Paterno and Penn State (including me), and would love to see JoePa lead them back to the title one last time. So, if the Nittany Lions win out, voters will be tearing their hair out. Furthermore, no one trusts the BCS computer.

PLAYOFF.

Hey, maybe President-elect Obama can do something about this. After all, we will still watch all the bowl games. We always do. We can't friggin' help it. We are college football fans. And we always like to watch our major college football games at the beginning of January.

Universities complain that a playoff system would extend the season. This too, is a crock of malarkey. They just want the million dollars (or whatever they get) from the bowl administration for winning.

We don't have to have weeks off between the Conference Championship games and the eight-team playoff. We already have a month off between the Conference Championships and the National Championship.

Screw it.

The bowl games are always during Christmas break for the players, so have multiple games per day throughout the week. It would be football heaven. No breaks in the action.

Then the playoff starts right after Christmas Day, then the next round at about New Year's, and the National Championship a week after that (or two if they feel it necessary for preparation's sake).

So here we are, jacked up for six weeks on amazing football, and we still finish the season at the same time.

Everybody wins.

Playoff.

The SEC: What We Found Out, What We'll Find Out

nick old — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 14:32:46 -0400

Well, there you have it.

The majority of the question marks I commented on recently seem to have been ironed out. We knew that many answers would be found after the Alabama/Georgia game, but I don't know how prepared we all were to receive answers to questions we didn't even ask (right, Florida?).

Let's go ahead and get the showdown in Athens out of the way.

What did we want to know?

We were curious as to the actual identities and capabilities of both teams, each of whom are important pieces to their respective divisions and the SEC Championship game.

I don't think we realized just how much they would affect the National Championship picture in this game, though.

Alabama dominated the first half. They got the 120-150 yards I predicted they would need in order to have a shot. John Parker Wilson did exactly what he needed to: played efficiently and threw accurately, and managed the game admirably.

The defense was able to take Knowshon Moreno out of the game early because of their quick accumulation of points. Though Matthew Stafford was forced to pass for the majority of the game, he still eluded the 300-yard mark in passing yards (he threw for 275 yards in the game).

Georgia's offensive line was pretty well smacked around the entire game. The Tide typically rushed four or five of their defensive front and were able to flush Stafford consistently.

This will be excellent tape for Georgia's upcoming opponents; knowing they can rush less than half their players and still create disruption to help their secondaries against Big D's Big Arm.

Their defense did prove to be a tough one, and they certainly tested Alabama. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, the Tide had a perfect game plan and executed it flawlessly. I know Alabama scored seemingly at will, but Georgia's lack of discipline cost them touchdowns and tons of momentum.

Let's not forget that Georgia showed extreme character and pride in the second half by not giving up and posting 30 points. It's easy to say that the score doesn't reflect how the game really went, but in this case, maybe it actually does.

Sure, Alabama went into halftime up 31-0, but they lost focus and allowed a somehow inspired Georgia squad to have a chance, albeit a small one.

Nick Saban has showed his displeasure in the team's second-half performance, and rightfully so. Alabama needs to constantly be reminded of how to finish games, how to get the blowouts, to not play down to the competition or circumstances of the game.

In truth, they need to be more like Oklahoma always is. It's true that Oklahoma loses in the spotlight, but they know how to get to that same spotlight, which is almost as important.

Their blowouts of every single opponent rightfully warrants their No. 1 ranking. Thus, Alabama is going to have to play with a higher level of consistency to achieve greatness this season. That's no small task for a team full of upstart youngsters.

The State of the SEC West

Alabama probably deserves to be ranked ahead of LSU for the simple fact that the Bayou Bengals have beaten Auburn and Mississippi State rather unimpressively... and those two schools have been very unimpressive.

One thing that does bode well for the Tigers of LSU is that they are starting to lean toward a particular QB now. Some stability at that position will do wonders for the entire team, and you have to expect the young Jarrett Lee to get better and better.

RB Charles Scott is tearing it up right now as well, and with his style of running, he shouldn't deter much as the season goes on.

However, the fact that the Crimson Tide won against two top 10 teams in brutal fashion on the road hasn't gone unnoticed. Thus, they deserve to be a highly ranked team until they start losing key players.

If that happens, it will certainly be a wait-and-see, as their depth is always a concern. Let's not forget that they haven't won a game in the month of November since 2006.

One place they can afford to be hit is at RB, which also happens to be where they've been getting their best production; so that's good.

They have four very capable backs ready to do work whenever they're needed, and have a fifth on reserve (RS Freshman Demetrius Goode).

Both 'Bama and LSU have a power back (Ingram/Scott), a couple of balanced backs (Coffee, Upchurch/Williams, Murphy), and a scatback (Grant/Holliday). Because they both have so many options in their ground attacks, it's easy to predict a real treat of a game come Nov. 8 in Baton Rouge.

We know each team will try to pound each other and play very physically. As it stands, neither team should lose before they play each other. Yes, that's right, that means I'm saying that LSU will go into the Swamp in Gainesville and beat Florida. Which leads me to my next point...

The SEC East, supposedly the class of the league, showed otherwise last Saturday. The Vols still played uninspired football against Auburn (and they still only lost by two points), the Gators lost at home to unranked Ole Miss, and of course you have the trouncing of Georgia by Alabama.

What are we left with? Vanderbilt and Kentucky leading the division. Wow. If anyone predicted this, give me proof of it and I will personally give you $1 million (just add it to my student loans total, as it will scarcely make a dent).

In the West, everyone knew it would be a battle to see who would represent the division in Atlanta in December, but most figured the prevailing team would be the punching bag for either Georgia or Florida (whichever one made it to the championship from the East division).

Now, Alabama and LSU (both from the West) sit atop the SEC hierarchy and are ranked Nos. 2 and 3 in the country, respectively. The Mississippi schools also did their part: Ole Miss by waltzing into the Swamp in Gainesville, and MSU by putting up 24 points on a stout LSU D.

But never fear, the SEC East knows how long the season is and we tend to forget the early bumps in the road come November anyway (just ask Tennessee in 2007).

Georgia, though still having a tough-as-nails schedule, can learn from their mistakes against Alabama and keep their heads up after proving to themselves that they can score when they're determined to (see second half of Alabama game).

Also, Florida, if Urban Meyer can get someone other than Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow running the ball effectively, will hang tough with anybody the rest of the season. However, we won't know exactly where they stand until they play Georgia in neutral-site Jacksonville on Nov. 1.

That game will quite possibly determine the East representative of the championship game at the Georgia Dome. My quick prediction for that game is a second straight win for the Georgia Bulldogs.

They are a team essentially built to play against Florida, and Urban Meyer has shown no interest in even trying to run the ball up the middle. Mark Richt won't let his players slip again.

So as things look right now (and keep in mind the words right now), the SEC looks to be headed by LSU and Alabama in the West and still Florida and Georgia in the East (by default).

No offense to Vanderbilt and Kentucky, but they should enjoy their early success while it lasts.

If Georgia can't handle a physical, talented Alabama team, Kentucky won't be able to either in Tuscaloosa this weekend.

Also, Vandy will still upset some people, just like almost every SEC team does at least once a year, and probably make it to a bowl, but they aren't seriously in the SEC Championship hunt (even though that would be fantastic).

State of the SEC West: The Contenders, Part Three of Three—Auburn

nick old — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:09:25 -0400

My continuation of a three-part series concerning the contenders in the SEC West.

As promised, I'm here to deliver the third and final part to my lil' mini-series on possible West champs. Let's take a look at the third team.

Auburn

Auburn is in a crappy situation. They've committed to running the spread offense under new coordinator Tony Franklin.

Mistake.

Auburn fans were optimistic before the season. Many realized that the offense wasn't dynamic last year, but it was a down year for them on the whole offense. Brandon Cox had one of his worst years, which also played a large part.

Auburnites thought, "Well, I know if it ain't broke, don't fix it, but the spread sure does seem to work for everyone else. Whatever helps us win..."

Well, now they're fed up, and for good reason. A spread offense should NEVER score only three points in a ball game, no matter whose defense it is. After last week's poor outing versus the LSU Tigers, it is now time to be concerned.

Auburn, a favorite to win the West by some, find themselves in a predicament. You obviously have to finish out the season with Franklin. Cutting people loose in the middle of a season is almost never a good idea.

However, Tommy Tuberville can't wait any longer for this system to be put in. It's SEC time now. Poor Chris Todd was "running for his life" all game last week. Of course he couldn't have a good game with no protection. This, to me, is a direct result of the spread.

Why? Because the hogmollies up front aren't used to the tempo and fast pace of the spread offense. By the fourth quarter, the O-line was so worn out, it was getting beaten repeatedly by a fresh rotation of talented LSU defensive linemen. Auburn has to chill out a bit and get the ball moving on the ground.

Nothing is more demoralizing to a defense than knowing what's coming and being unable to stop it. That's how the Auburn Tigers used to run the show: tough-nosed SEC, line-'em-up-and-punch-'em-in-the-mouth football.

Their defense is still trying to play that way, but the offense is making it tough, what with going three-and-out all the time. Thus, the defense is constantly tired.

The Tigers have to begin to control the clock again and methodically march down the field for points, just like they have this entire millennium (some of Auburn's best teams ever—and just so we don't forget, they are the most accurate example of the BCS system flaws. Poor guys.). They have a stable full of solid running backs. Use 'em!

If Auburn were scoring points at their regular pace (not too many, but certainly not three in games against the Mississippi States of the world), their only tests after last week's LSU game would have been Georgia and Alabama at the end of the season.

Unfortunately, nobody knows what the Tigers are going to do or when they're going to do it. All we do know is that change is coming in one form or another. My guess is Tuberville will begin to use the spread to rush more, not unlike the dynamic West Virginia offensive attacks of the last few years.

But until we see vast improvement, it will be a tough road for Aubie. They play Tennessee on the Plains this week. Tennessee plays good defense and has as much to play for this week as any team in the country. They're playing for pride and for their coach. Don't expect a blowout from either side.

After that, they must go to Nashville to face the upstart Vanderbilt Commodores. Look out, because Vandy is playing with confidence and heart this season. They're bowl huntin'.

Two games later, the Tigers go to Morgantown to battle West Virginia. Good thing for the Tigers that WVU is underachieving as well thus far in the season. Then it's on to the crucial last two games on their schedule: UGA and Alabama.

Georgia, at this point, is an easy pick to go in and beat Auburn on the Plains. However, we don't know exactly what they have. We'll know more after this week's Alabama game, where the Bulldogs will be pulling their third-ever "blackout."

The Alabama game is, luckily, two weeks later, giving Auburn a bye week to rest and prepare. But Alabama has a bye week also, and they'll be coming off Mississippi St. at home, not Georgia. The game is in Tuscaloosa this year, and the Tide are extremely hungry for a W.

I have to pick Alabama to win this game because of their necessity to win it and their season thus far in comparison with Auburn's. True, the Tide haven't had a real test yet, but nonetheless, they haven't looked as shaky as their cross-state counterpart.

With the present state of Auburn's football team, I have to say that they will lose to both Georgia and Alabama, and lose one of the three games between UT, Vandy, and West Virginia.

However, if Auburn can slip by the Vols, they have a good chance of going ahead and beating Vanderbilt and the Mountaineers, as Tennessee will be an emotional and hard-fought game, and their toughest test of the three.

Auburn's predicted record: 9-3 (5-3)

So there you have it—my predictions for the SEC West contenders. I have LSU going to Atlanta in December with Alabama in second and Auburn pulling into third. The other three teams are very interchangeable at the four, five, and six spots.

State of the SEC West: The Contenders, Part Two of Three—Alabama

nick old — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 19:13:19 -0400

My continuance of a three-part series discussing the LSU Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, and Auburn Tigers as candidates for the SEC West title. Part Two.

Alabama

The Crimson Tide are the easy pick as a wild card in the West during the early part of this season. Everyone has said that next year is the year they'll be ready. I must agree.

Though they look awfully good right now, let's remember that they haven't won a game in November since 2006. The Tide always starts hot. It's the second half of the season that always nips at the heels of the Tide and inevitably brings them down.

The question has been about one thing the last couple of years in Tuscaloosa: depth—or lack thereof, rather. The Tide has the talent in its starters to hang with just about anyone...but not enough talent/experience in its backups.

With the addition of Nick Saban as head coach, Alabama has played younger and younger guys—freshmen who fit the system or simply outplay their older counterparts. Saban doesn't discriminate with age. This explains why 15 freshmen have already played through the first four games of this season for the Crimson Tide.

If Alabama stays healthy for the rest of the season (as they have been nearly without injury so far this season, which is unheard of) and the freshmen continue to play at a high level without making key mistakes, the Tide, just like LSU, could run the table. That road won't be easy.

Here, I will give special focus to the UA/UGA game since it is the game of the week.

Alabama has to face No. 3 Georgia in Athens this week. Georgia is one of the best all-around teams in the country and may be the best in the SEC. We will find out this weekend where both teams stand.

The thing that ultimately dropped the Bulldogs from first to third wasn't lackadaisical play on their part—it was the injuries they have suffered in the trenches. Their best offensive and defensive linemen were both lost to start the season (Sturdivant and Owens, respectively).

The game all starts with the trench warfare going on up front. If Georgia can't block NT "Mount" Cody with freshman Ben Jones and a fellow double-teamer, they will be forced keep the ball outside, which they will do with screens and sweeps to Knowshon Moreno anyway.

But what happens when Georgia needs a crucial 3rd-and-2? The Tide will surely be ready for a call that won't involve the A-gap. Thus, the play of the UA linebackers will have a lot to do with how the Tide performs.

Georgia has a special weapon outside of Moreno and backup Caleb King, though. They have a man named Stafford. The kid will force corners to keep close coverage throughout the game, putting yet more pressure on the linebackers in the flats and over the short middle of the field.

If the corners allow the WRs of Georgia to slip behind them at all, expect Matt Stafford to heave it as far as he has to without hesitation—and he has the rifle arm to do it, too. Don't forget about the WR play of the Bulldogs either. True freshman A.J. Green has been superior early on, while senior Mohamed Massaquoi solidly goes about his business.

The key for the Georgia offense is to gain solid yardage on the ground to open up that passing game, and to make sure Stafford doesn't throw picks. But the Alabama defense should be ready for whatever they throw at them. The Tide is young on D, but they're smart and quick.

Alabama will face the same issues as Georgia, except with more question marks. Among them: 1) Will they be able to rack up 200 yards on the ground against a super fast Georgia D? Probably not, but 125-150 are needed.

2) Will they be able to throw the ball around in this new offense when they're forced to? There have been moments of promise and moments for concern. Julio needs to break out, and JPW needs to be consistent and accurate.

Another question is whether the Bulldog defense, which is built for speed to play against spread attacks such as that used by East Division rival Florida, can handle an Alabama offense that runs straight at them and punches them in the mouth.

Can Georgia be physical enough in their front seven to slow this Alabama rushing attack? The answer is unpredictable. I think Alabama will get the 140 yards they need. Their offensive line is too good and the backs are too strong not to reach at least the century mark in rushing yardage. However, Georgia has the No. 1 rush defense in the SEC (guess who is second...the Tide).

This game essentially comes down to the overall offense and special teams of each squad. Both teams have great coaching: Richt is underrated and Saban is of the Parcells camp (along with Belichick and co.).

The advantage of offense goes to Georgia. They are more proven on both sides of the ball. But the special teams advantage goes to Alabama. Expect Julio to return kicks with Arenas again this week.

Though less proven, Alabama has shown more character and confidence this year and may just surprise with an upset in Athens. Time will tell, and it will be fun to watch.

I have to pick Georgia by one score in this game. They're more proven. Provided their offensive line can adequately support the rest of the offense, they should pull this one out. If they can't...who knows?

As far as Alabama's West crown hopes go after facing the Bulldogs, it's important to note that that dreaded month of November includes a road game vs. LSU and a season-ender against hated rival Auburn.

I spoke already about the LSU game when I dissected LSU in Part One of this little mini-series. In case you missed it, I picked LSU in a close one. I will better predict the outcome of that game after seeing what both UA and UGA are really made of this week.

The Auburn contest will be even tougher to predict than the LSU and Georgia games because Auburn has even more question marks than Alabama. It is a home game, which is good for the Tide faithful. Another loss to Auburn might break the hearts of those who bleed Houndstooth.

The questions Auburn doesn't have to answer: the defense. No matter how they appeared against LSU, they are as solid as ever. Tony Franklin's offense better start putting points on the board and the line better start blocking in order to keep the defense off the field so much.

That's how bad that offense is at Auburn: They not only screw themselves, they screw the usually stellar defense too. It won't be long until they're putting the ball in the hands of those stable backs 30-plus times per game again.

Tuberville's patience is about to wear out. Auburn doesn't have the ideal personnel or the mentality to run the spread. They need to get back to what makes Auburn, Auburn.

Who knows how both Alabama and Auburn will end up come Nov. 29, but if I had to pick a team to win now, it would easily be Alabama. But it is early, oh so early in the SEC season.

Alabama's record prediction: 10-2 (6-2)

Part Three will be tomorrow, concerning the Auburn Tigers.

State of the SEC West: The Contenders, Part One of Three—LSU

nick old — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:01:00 -0400

I would like to begin this article by commenting on a previously published article regarding the wide-open race of the SEC. It was written just after much-embattled QB Ryan Perrilloux was banished from LSU before he went on to Jacksonville St. in Alabama.

I picked the SEC West to be wide open—which was obvious. I, however, picked just four teams who I thought had legitimate shots at the West title. In recent months, possibly brought on by the self-reflection that comes with European travel, I began to reconsider the four teams I had chosen.

I had chosen to leave Arkansas and Ole Miss out of my mind's contention—an easy call considering they were inducting new head coaches, and we all know the growing pains associated with new philosophies and mismatched coaches/players.

I chose Mississippi St. as a potential dark horse. This is the reconsideration I had over the summer.

I had neglected to realize that more people were aware of MSU than I thought. Thus, the very nature of their dark horse candidacy would be diminished, and it has been. They beat both Alabama and Auburn last season, negating my call for their "dark horsedness," as I will call it.

After my prediction of only Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and MSU being available for the Georgia Dome this winter, I could only hope that MSU would realize my mistake and produce something resembling an offense. This would not be the case.

Thus, I'm forced to admit my mistake and render MSU as unable to attend December's Conference Championship.

As it stands, LSU (5), Alabama (8), and Auburn (15) have the only legitimate shots of representing the West (as I should have stated all along). Let's dissect these team's chances, shall we? Let's start with...

LSU

The Bayou Bengals have probably the most talent in the SEC, at least in their starters. Florida may have more talent in their depth, but LSU's starters/seniors are second to maybe only USC, who has to turn away four-star recruits with regularity because of scholarship limitations (tough life, huh?).

The Tigers from here on out will face Florida on the road, Georgia in Baton Rouge, and Alabama at home. These are their true tests, though, like anybody in the SEC, they have the potential to be upset by other opponents (the Mississippi schools, Arkansas, etc.).

The Florida game will be interesting because the LSU defense is so tough. Florida hasn't had to show its offensive arsenal yet this season because they haven't had to. LSU will be the first game in which Percy Harvin will be a difference-maker in the sense that he will be needed to be such.

If Florida can't stop the bevy of capable backs LSU has, led by Charles Scott, expect a Tiger win. However, it will remain to be seen if the Tiger secondary can hang with the 9,000 burners Florida has on offense.

If Florida can admirably play the run, they will win. Neither Jarrett Lee nor Andrew Hatch—Harvard or not—will be able to keep up with the Gators without the help of a stellar running game.

I pick Florida in a nail-biter because of the home field advantage of The Swamp.

Georgia is a very similar team to LSU: not terribly dynamic at any one part of their game, but darn good at most all parts.

The Bulldogs are scary because of Matthew Stafford's golden arm and spotless conscience. The kid is much like Brett Favre (a lofty comparison, yes) in that he has a gun and likes to use it. He'll sling a pick to the other team and forget about it by the time the whistles blows the play dead. He'll then carve up your secondary with throws of 30 yards that no players can defend.

If Stafford plays smart and Knowshon Moreno runs for 100, forget it, because the LSU QBs can't pick apart Georgia's elite DBs when they know it's coming. However, LSU has both the best offensive and defensive lines in the best conference in the country. This alone will keep them in every game they play (even in Championship games).

If LSU can (again) run effectively, they will beat Georgia. I pick LSU because the lines of Georgia are hurting—primarily their offensive line, which is in flux right now. LSU's greatest overall strength is its defensive front seven. Knowshon Moreno can't run if there's nowhere to run to.

Lastly, the Tigers must face Alabama. This is always an intriguing matchup. LSU won a breath-taker last season in Tuscaloosa. If you follow the series, one of the quirkier stats in the history of the rivalry is that the away team has always been somewhat dominant. LSU won't take Alabama lightly, even with home field advantage.

The offensive line of Alabama and the defensive line of LSU will probably deadlock one another. Same goes for when each team is on the other side of the ball. LSU's receivers are good, but so are the Tide's DBs. Alabama's receivers are pretty good, and so are the Tigers' DBs.

The QBs for each team: also pretty good. The running attacks for both teams: equally impressive, considering that LSU may have a slight advantage in talent, while 'Bama has a slight advantage on cohesion in conjunction with their blockers.

With special teams: same—a deadlock. Javier Arenas and Trindon Holliday are both scary. The Tide likely has the small advantage with Arenas himself, but their kickoff coverage is only average, making Holliday a little more impressive. Each kicker is very good as well.

Now on to coaching: Alabama has the superior head coach, plain and simple. I know it's a broken record, but LSU fans have to acknowledge it soon: Nick Saban made LSU what it is now. Les Miles was a lock to bolt for Michigan (a perfect fit for him in every way) until Kirk Herbstreit let the cat out of the bag.

What do you tell 85 kids that have placed their trust in you right before the SEC Championship game? You're gonna jet? "Sorry, it was fun, but I gotta go"? No. If you want an SEC Championship on your resume, you tell them you're staying.

Then LSU wises up to what was about to happen and offers him about 12 cents more than Nick Saban. Coincidence? Come on!

Les Miles got lucky with some unbelievably ridiculous play calls last season. He called so many idiotic fourth down go-for-its that he was still a borderline goat for it. You can't be lucky for a whole year? Tell that to Coach Miles. Tell that to the June Jones' of the world who like their teams to play basketball on a football field.

For pure talent's sake, LSU should win this game. If they don't, Les Miles will be the reason they lose. Keep in mind that Coach Saban is playing with 15 freshmen. He should not win this game.

LSU wins another close one by default, because if Alabama's offensive line or defense begins to lose starters, they won't have the depth to make up for it.

LSU's record prediction: 11-1 (7-1)

Stay tuned in the coming hours/days for the dissection of Alabama's and Auburn's SEC West title chances.

John Smoltz To Bullpen, The Braves Still Have a Shot If...

nick old — Mon, 05 May 2008 19:06:09 -0400

John Smoltz said very definitely recently that he would be returning not to the rotation, but to the bullpen when be recovers from his stinit on the disabled list. Hopefully, he will need only the 15 days set aside for his DL stay to recover from a consistently inflamed shoulder as it is not an injury that will go silently into the night, so-to-speak.

Smoltz, assuming he returns to form when he returns from the DL, will give the braves the dominant closer they have lacked. The rotation will go to Hudson, Glavine, Jurrjens, and blank, blank. As I've mentioned previously, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jeff Bennett, Jorge Campillo, Buddy Carlisle, and Chuck James are these candidates. That's five candidates to fill two spots-- not terrible odds assuming that at least two of these could work out in the rotation's back side. Then again, it's very possible that none of them work out. However, I can finally say the Reyes impressed me. In the last two years, I've cringed seeing him on the mound in the first inning. I know that I may as well cancel anything I have planned for the next five hours, because he's going to throw so many pitches by the fifth inning that at least three hours have elapsed. More walks than strikeouts will do this. But on to my point: Reyes finally showed what his potential looks like when realized. In AAA Richmond, he had a 1.17 ERA with 25 strikeouts to eight walks. Far better than the numbers he's shown the last few years, and it appears that he didn't let the promotion to the Majors change his approach. He dominated the Reds in his start. Reyes was locating his fastball, using his slider, throwing first pitch strikes; everything you want in a starter. Greater still is that he hadn't lost any velocity on his fastball. Throwing 93 MPH from the left side. Very impressive showing from Reyes. I feel he deserves this credit because I usually hate on him pretty hard. But I only report what we all see, I most certainly think that I treated him fairly in my articles. I cited fact and backed it up with stats. And I am treating him just as fairly here, as he deserves much credit for a magnificent outing against the Reds a few nights ago (he even pitched his way out of trouble). Also, give Brian McCann kudos for calling a good game and keeping Reyes in it.

On to the bullpen: If Smoltz returns to form the 9378437 set-up men the Braves have will be put back where they rightfully belong. The team entered the season with Rafael Soriano as the closer (a legitimate idea) and Peter Moylan as the primary set-up man until Gonzalez returned to the bullpen to share the duty with him. As a lefty, Gonzalez would be used alongside Moylan, a righty, during the 7th and 8th innings, depending on the handedness of the lineups during those innings. You know, lefties versus lefties, righties versus righties. Gonzalez had the most closing experience and is expected back soon. But he still isn't with the team yet, and Soriano went down. Then Moylan went down (and looks like he may be down for the year as he just got moved to the 60-day DL. Now we're in trouble. The young Manny Acosta got forced into the role. We're just crossing our fingers daily that the man who pitches the ninth never has to see the potential tying run. There are no other options really. Blaine Boyer throws hard, but throws with minimal movement on his fastball. Royce Ring and Will Ohman are middle-relief lefty specialists. Honestly, the Braves are going to have to bite the bullet until one of the set-up men can return. If Atlanta can keep the bats warm for a few weeks, they may survive by playing some .500 baseball. If they can do that, hopefully Smoltz, Soriano, and Mike Gonzalez will all be healthy and taking the 7th-9th innings into their very capable hands. This would alleviate the pressure on their lesser talented or younger bullpen mates. Thus, we're back to square one: three capable late-innings studs that compliment a solid front four in the rotation (taking for granted that Reyes proves that he is ready to be a consistent Big Leaguer). Further mirroring the preseason outlook is that the rotation will still feature two capable lefties then (remembering that Mike Hampton and/or Chuck James was supposed to be the solid 4th man).

Fans and front office alike can forget about Mike Hampton coming back. He is straining his boob muscles and pulling muscles in his feet and tearing chin ligaments when he makes breakfast. The guy's so fragile, he can make bull in a china shop seem like a safe bet. We all want him back, but to hold your breath would be irresponsible. If he does make the long-awaited comeback, he will receive due diligence in fair treatment. Besides, if he does come back, it would only be icing on the cake to a season that still can be salvaged into something respectable, if not remarkable.

More Rotation Woes For The Braves

nick old — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 14:11:23 -0400

John Smoltz is hurt. Another hit to the Atlanta rotation. Chuck James should be recalled. The Braves should most certainly not bring Jo-Jo Reyes up. Until he can prove to throw consistent strikes, Reyes should stay in Richmond. With Reyes, the bullpen would be more overused than it currently is. That's something the team definietely cannot afford. We're talking about a guy who can't make it to the 6th inning under 100 pitches.

Chuck James, however, has not produced extremely consistently in the early part of this season, but he still needs to be in Atlanta and not AAA Richmond. The Braves can't afford to keep pulling him up, sending him down. With Smoltz out for who really knows how long, not having to use James in the rotation while he figures things out in the minors is not a luxury the team has. James could be plugged into the fourth spot in the rotation, staggering the first four starters right, left, right, left, respectively (Hudson, Glavine, Jurrjens, James). This would keep teams' hitters off balance in each series, never being able to keep the same lineup in consecutive days, further complicating them getting into any grooves. As things stand right now, Atlanta really may not be forced to use a 5th starter until they go on long stretches of consecutive games. They, in theory, could survive maybe even into June with four starters.

If the Braves elect not to bring back Chuck James, and do wish to use the guys they have, the fourth spot should be reserved for Jeff Bennett (who has pitched well this season when used in that role), and the fifth spot could be tried with the somewhat surprising Jorge Campillo. Campillo should get a shot at the job because he throw consistent strikes, attacks hitters, isn't afraid to let his defense make plays behind him, pitches maturely, and keeps hitters off balance. In baseball, when a starter goes down with an injury, you need someone to step in and throw strikes until the other starter can come back. Be serviceable, not dominant. It's very similar to football, where when the starting QB goes down, his back up doesn't need the most talent, he doesn't need to win you ball games, he just needs to not lose you ball games. That's why, often times the third QB may be more talented, yet looser (and probably younger).

On another note, what the hell is Bobby Cox doing leaving in his "closer" for three innings in a one-run 12-inning game? He knows, just like every other person in the world, that Manny Acosta will throw the ball all over the park when he exceeds five outs. Furthermore, he left him in to hit for himself in the top of the 12th with two outs and runners on first and second. The Braves had a few solid bats still on their bench, who, as real hitters, could have provided a single that would have given the team some insurance runs. I love Bobby Cox as much as anyone, but since last season, there have been a few instances like this. It seems that he's slipping... or just being stubborn.

Atlanta Baseball: Hampton to DL, Reyes Called Up

nick old — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 23:02:22 -0400

Mike Hampton went back on the DL Thursday, this of the 15-day variety. Of course, it is truly frustrating that the Atlanta Braves, while paying Hampton's huge contract, haven't seen the former 20-game winner pitch in two years.

However, it is important to note that Hampton is far more frustrated than anyone else. One doesn't become a 20-game winner in the Major Leagues without being a competitor.

So, if it weren't absolutely necessary, Hampton wouldn't have elected to pull himself from the lineup just prior to his first scheduled start. Sure, it's disappointing that Hampton's much-awaited return is postponed another two weeks, but what is most disappointing is Atlanta's choice of call-up from the Minors.

Jo-Jo Reyes gets the call from the Bigs over other choices such as Buddy Carlisle. It is true that Carlisle isn't the most stable of candidates to fill in for a few starts, but neither is Reyes—especially Reyes.

True, Reyes fills the want for another left-hander to complement Glavine while we wait for the return of Chuck James and Hampton, but how important is this when considering Reyes was given extensive opportunities at the Major League level last season and posted a scary 6.22 ERA?

More than that, Reyes walked more batters (30) than he struck out (27), showing terrible command of his supposedly wicked stuff. All I've seen from Reyes is a decent fastball/slider combination. But guess what, these are the two pitches that get hit for the most home runs.

The top five teams in the Majors last season in pitches seen per at bat all made the playoffs. Jo-Jo Reyes makes Alfonso Soriano look like Placido Polanco he throws so many pitches. It is still beyond me why the Braves would continue to show so much faith in this kid (especially considering Bobby Cox loves strike-throwers).

Why not go with Carlisle, somewhat of a surprise in his strong late-season stretch with the Braves last season, over the young, immature Reyes? Carlisle posted a winning record and walked the same number of hitters while striking out almost triple the batters in double the innings that Reyes did.