Bleacher Report - Articles by Eliot Podgorsky

Who Will Fill the Fifth Spot in the New York Yankees' Rotation?

Eliot Podgorsky — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 13:46:08 -0500

The New York Yankees rotation is shaping up to be a good one. Through free agency this year the Yankees have added a dominant ace in C.C. Sabathia and they've added a solid number two starter with no-hit stuff in A.J. Burnett. In the third spot in the rotation they will have Chien-Ming Wang, who had 19 wins two years in a row before an injury.

Sliding into the fourth spot in the rotation will be Joba Chamberlain who showed why scouts think he will be an ace and he will look to improve and grow from last year.

Four solid starters, the only problem is that a baseball rotation has five spots. So the question in who should fill the fifth spot?

Many assume that it will be Andy Pettite but with each passing day the one-year $10 million dollar contract seems less and less likely. I have no problems with Pettite and would be more then happy to see him back next year but there are other options.

The Yankees could go the free agent route adding a solid starter in someone like Oliver Perez or Derek Lowe. Or take a low-risk, high-reward flier on Ben Sheets. Barring an unforeseen change in circumstance this will not happen.

The option that at this point is most likely and in my opinion the best would be allowing the young pitching core of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves, and Phil Coke to compete for the spot in the rotation.

If it comes down to this I believe Phil Hughes will claim the spot.

We haven't heard much about Aceves or Coke but we have all heard about how Hughes has ace like stuff and how Ian Kennedy is a young Mike Mussina. When the Yankees relied on these two last year they flopped, with the pitchers failing to win a single game.

However with the free agent additions a young pitcher could fill the fifth spot in the rotation and could suffer growing pains if need be without pressure. This is the main benefit, less pressure on the young guns.

When Kennedy and Hughes where given rotation spots last year there was immediate pressure to live up to their potential and obviously that did not happen.

I believe all these guys could capably fill the fifth spot in the rotation and I believe that the low pressure the spot offers could allow these guys to begin to grow and reach their potential.

What do you think, should the Yankees go with an established starter or let one of the young pitchers fill the spot?

The Yankees, Rays and Red Sox: Three Different Offseason Strategies

Eliot Podgorsky — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 04:32:21 -0500

This offseason we've seen the three top American League East teams use three uniquely different strategies regarding their teams and the free agent market.

The New York Yankees went big signing three of the top free agents for a total of $423.5 million. They also took a flier on Nick Swisher and will pay him $21 million the next three years if they don't trade him.

The Tampa Bay Rays so far have only made one major addition, Pat Burrell to a two-year $16 million dollar contract. Burrell was signed to DH and replaces the departing Cliff Floyd.

They also added outfielder Matt Joyce whom they acquired for Edwin Jackson. While Burrell is certainly a good player and in my opinion could put of some good numbers with the Rays has them standing pat though one can hardly blame them after making it to the World Series last year.

The Boston Red Sox struck out on Mark Teixiera, losing him to the Yankees but they have hardly been losers in the free agent market. The Red Sox have so far gone low risk-high reward with all their signees.

They have signed Takashi Saito, Brad Penny, Rocco Baldelli and John Smoltz for a total of a guaranteed $14.75 million and resigned Mark Kotsay to a one-year $1.5 million dollar contract. Saito, Penny, Baldelli and Smoltz's contracts have incentive clauses that could allow them to double their money.

These strategies have me thinking which is better, go big or go home, stick with what works, or go low risk high reward.

As a Yankee fan I'm really excited about the Yankee game plan and I believe it will work but what if it doesn't? What if C.C. never warms up to New York? What if Burnett get's injured? What if Teixiera is another Giambi?

While all three things could happen I believe that Teixiera and C.C. will do fine and Burnett will give us three good years. In the end I think that these contracts will be worth it and are not only something that the Yankees should of done, it's something they had to do.

The addition of Sabathia and Burnett give the Yankees a formidable rotation especially if Joba Chamberlain continues his growth and let's say Phil Hughes begins to grow in the 5th spot in the rotation. Let's not forget that before he got injured last year Chien-Ming Wang had won 19 games in back to back years.

The addition of Teixiera gives the Yankees the best corner combo in the league and if Cano rebounds the infield could be one of the best in the league. In my opinion the Yankees additions will assure they do not miss the playoffs again and might lead to another parade down the Canyon of Heroes.

While you can't fault the Rays for basically staying put it might not be the best decision with Yankees and Red Sox improving so much. That said with David Price in the rotation for a full year and guys like Evan Longoria improving the Rays may not need anyone to rise to the top of the AL East again in the 2009 season.

The Red Sox strategy is the most intriguing and to me worrisome for the Yankees and Rays. All the players they added where and still could be All-Star talents. A rotation of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Smoltz, Penny and Lester or possibly Buchholz could compete with any staff and a bullpen of Papelbon, Delcarmen, Okajima and Saito could be phenomenal. Rocco Baldelli is the 4th outfielder but if he can treat his channelopathy effectively he could be way above average.

While the rotation and bullpen could be great this is banking on these players returning to form at least a little bit. Smoltz is 41, Saito is 39 and both are injury risks. There are questions about Penny's arm strength and health and who's knows what could happen to Baldelli's condition.

The Red Sox do have young arms that could step in if one of the pitchers go down and they aren't relying to much on Baldelli so that's good. But if the worst happens and none of these players recover and pan out the Sox could be in sorry shape.

Some Bold and Not so Bold Predictions for the 2008 Baseball Season

Eliot Podgorsky — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 09:41:29 -0400

Fourteen games into the regular season, it's prediction time.

Jonathan Albaladejo will be the third-best reliever on the Yankees.
Johan Santana will not lead the Mets to the playoffs by himself but…
The Mets will make the playoffs.
Alex Rodriguez will win the A.L. MVP award.
David Ortiz will not hit .073 the rest of the season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will win the N.L. West behind the pitching of Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and RANDY JOHNSON.
Curt Schilling will pitch again...to his kids in the backyard.
The Upton brothers begin to reach the potential that will make them the best offensive brother combination ever.
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays, sorry the Tampa Bay Rays don't finish last in the A.L. East, the Orioles do.
The Curse of the Billy Goat continues.
Fausto Carmona, Chien-Ming Wang, and C.C. Sabathia finish 1-2-3 in the A.L. CY Young ballot
The Phillies also make the playoffs.
The trade deadline will not be as boring as it was last year.
Evan Longoria forces the Rays to keep him up the entire season.
Lou Piniella and Ozzie Guillen lead managers with the most ejections.
Some rookie makes a big splash.
The Boston Red Sox realize they have become the thing they hate the most, the Yankees.
When Yankee Stadium closes, fans cry.
When Shea Stadium closes, fans cheer.
The Detroit Tigers make the playoffs after their miserable start.
The Detroit Tigers never recover from their miserable start and miss the playoffs (hey I can make conflicting predictions).

Free Agent Veteran or Rookie: Who Should Fill a Yankees Rotation Spot in 2009?

Eliot Podgorsky — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 09:47:34 -0400

Three games into the 2008 season I'm sure Hank and Brian Cashman are just kicking back and relaxing, and they'll probably start putting together a game-plan for the off-season sometime after the All-Star Break. However it is never to soon to start planning and I would like to give my thoughts on the Yankees 2009 rotation. After the season the Yankees will have an abundance of money coming off the books, Jason Giambi at 23,428,571 million, Andy Pettitte at 16 million, Bobby Abreu at 16 million, Mike Mussina at 11,070,423 million, Carl Pavano (yes he's still on the team) at 10 million and Morgan Ensberg, LaTroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth also come off the books at a total of 13,866,667. This large amount of money will give the Yankees even more money to spend in the free agency market. It is almost certain that Mussina will not be back leaving a spot in the rotation that should go to Joba Chamberlain. Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Chien-Ming Wang are all under contract and should be back. The Wild Card is Andy Pettitte. How will his elbow hold up? Will the fallback from the Mitchell Report affect him? I hope that Pettitte comes back next season but for this article I am going to entertain the thought that this finally be the year that Pettitte retires.

2009's crop of free agent starters will be pretty good. It has Free agents like: Brad Penny, John Lackey, A.J. Burnett, Mark Mulder, C.C. Sabathia. But the question that needs to be asked is: Should the Yankees give a rotation spot to one of these veterans or give it to another young starter such as Alan Horne, Humberto Sanchez, Jeff Karstens or Jeffery Marquez?

Though Mulder was good in Oakland injuries caught up to him with the Cardinals and there is no guarantee he'll ever be the same. He may be worth a low-risk contract but I would rule him out. Penny has spent his entire career in the National League but at only 29 and with his track record he may be one of those few starters that is able to succeed in the American League immediately. A.J. Burnett has great stuff and has shown he can be an A.L. pitcher but he's injury-prone and last year when he went on the Disabled List some of the Blue Jays front office grumbled about his unwillingness to pitch through the pain. He may not also be a Free Agent as he has an opt out clause, if he gets injured or pitches poorly he'll take the 22 million the Blue Jays owe him over the next 2 years. The two most probable starters the Yankee would go after are Sabathia and Lackey, aged 27 and 29 respectively. Both have proven that they can be aces and have spent their entire careers in the A.L. There are concerns about Sabathia's weight and Lackey will be out until May this year with a triceps strain. If both stay healthy either one of them would be a welcome addition to the the pitching staff, could lead and teach the Yankees young guns and wouldn't require a Johan Santana-like commitment.

Instead of spending upwards of 50 million on a free agent the Yankees could give the rotation spot to another pitcher coming through their farm system. The four most likely candidates would be Horne, Karstens, Sanchez and Marquez as I stated earlier. Sanchez due to his injuries is probably destined for the bullpen. Karstens could be a useful long reliever and spot starter but I don't see his stuff giving him the ability to have a good career as a starter in the A.L. at least. Marquez, 24 throws between 92-93 topping out a little higher with his fastball also throws a great changeup and has fantastic command. Horne, 25 throws between 94-96 with his fastball with a great 12-6 curveball and above-average slider. Of the two Horne is a little more polished giving him the edge, though if either of the two where to get a rotation spot it would probably come down to whoever pitches better in Spring Training.

In my opinion if there is a rotation spot available next season my gut says it will go to a free agent veteran. Many columnists and baseball experts feel that Wang is not an ace and that is the main reason the Yankees went after Johan Santana this off-season. If an ace is needed the Yankees will probably go after Lackey or Sabathia to anchor the staff.