Bleacher Report - Articles by Joel Koch

Possible St. Louis Cardinals Trade Target: Josh Johnson

Joel Koch — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 22:02:39 -0500

Okay, let's live outside the box and in the realm of great possibility.

Josh Johnson is an emerging ace. In his first true full season, Johnson dominated the competition with a 3.23 earned run average and a 15-5 record. He has two full years before he hits free agency, and then he could demand A.J. Burnett type money.

Yes, he truly is that good.

Take what you just read and add these five words: Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Think about the true dominance of a pitching staff led by those three pitchers.

Is it possible? Very, as no player is truly off-limits. Every player in baseball has their price. Could the Cardinals match it?

Okay, back to reality.

John Perrotto reported through Twitter today that he hears the Marlins want to move Johnson. If that is true, the Cardinals could easily join the bidding.

Let's look at why the Cardinals could be involved:

Johnson is 25 (26 on Opening Day). Wainwright is 28. That has the making of a long-term tandem, especially with Carpenter aging.
The Cardinals have a steady stream of young players coming through the ranks, making the payroll lighter. An extension in the range of $80 million over five or six years is not out of the question.
Albert Pujols would see a strong commitment to winning.

Besides the fact that every team will be involved in discussions with the Marlins (who are excellent talent evaluators), the Cardinals gave up a strong amount of young talent over this past summer.

The upside is that the Cardinals will likely be gaining a first round pick, and three sandwich picks this off-season (possibly a fourth if Troy Glaus is offered arbitration). This would offset some of the loss.

Another downside is that the Cardinals have plenty of needs to fill this offseason. Third base and left field are top priorities, and the rotation is down on the list. A chance like this, though, is hard to pass up.

So, here is what I propose for the Cardinals.

First, any deal for Johnson would have to involve Kyle Lohse. Losing Lohse's contract would ease all burdens for the Cardinals, while also opening a rotation spot for Johnson and to allow for a young pitcher to take a rotation job.

Secondly, the Cardinals would have to obtain some sort of complimentary piece. This would ease the loss of Lohse plus prospects.

Thirdly, the payroll would have to stay light to retain Matt Holliday, and to be able to lock up Pujols long term.

Yes, it really is that difficult. This is why a third team is desperately needed.

Let me add my disclaimer before I propose the deal. To my knowledge, the teams are not discussing any deal to send Lohse to the team I have added, nor are the Cardinals in discussions with the Marlins about adding Josh Johnson. This is something I have created.

St. Louis Cardinals acquire 2B/3B Dan Uggla, RHP Josh Johnson
New York Mets acquire IF Emilo Bonfacio, RHP Kyle Lohse, and cash*
Florida Marlins acquire 1B/3B/OF Daniel Murphy, RHP Kyle McClellan, 3B David Freese, OF Daryl Jones, RHP Richard Castillo, SS Pete Kozma
*cash involved is $5.625 million to offset some of Lohse's contract, with $4 million coming from St. Louis and the rest from Florida

I'll break this down from first (Marlins) to last (Cardinals).

Florida's incentive here is easy. For two of their best players, they pull down two Major League hitters with experience, and a setup type pitcher who could fit easily into the back of their bullpen.

Murphy has experience at first base and left field in the Majors, and played third base in the Minors. Freese is a third baseman by trade with a very solid glove and a good bat to go with it. These two would add some punch to another rebuilding lineup.

Jones is a top prospect with the Cardinals who plays the corner outfield. He doesn't have the power to profile as a corner, but his speed and defense makes up for it. With Camreon Maybin in center field, the Marlins can sacrifice offense in left field for defense and a lead off hitter.

Kozma is a struggling defensive wiz at shortstop. He'll never be a great hitter, but his defense is outstanding. If the Marlins would ever move Hanley Ramirez, they would a capable defensive backup.

Castillo is in the lower minors, but at 19, he has great stuff and good control. He could easily be at the Major Leagues in 2012, and would be another solid arm to add to the Marlins talented pitching pool.

For the Mets, the gain is easy. They lose a player without a position and gain a solid backup infielder. They also add a quality middle rotation pitcher at slightly lower than the going rate ($27 million over three years). A quality score for the team.

The Cardinals can view this as "breaking even."

First off, they add Uggla. He is an offensive weapon and is improving his batting eye. With a switch to third base and working with the defensive work wizards Jose Oquendo and Joe Pettini, Uggla could become a well rounded star with the Cardinals.

If the Cardinals could also work out a deal with Holliday, it would give them a very powerful 3-4-5.

For Johnson, the trade would be viewed as everyone minus three (that is Lohse-Murphy-Uggla). It would hit the system very hard, but it would leave some more important pieces.

The Cardinals would add an ace type pitcher to the already loaded rotation. Replacing Lohse with Johnson would be a huge victory for the team, not to mention the savings that would be created.

The Cardinals would have Allen Craig, Lance Lynn, and Eduardo Sanchez remaining (among players who have already appeared at the Majors). Those three could fill the holes created by the trade or free agency (left field, starting pitching, setup respectively).

While this trade would drain the system even further in the upper levels, it would leave enough talent to derive from in places of further need. Third base would no longer be a question with Uggla, which has been the most talked about open position for the 2010 team.

So yes, the Cardinals would take another huge hit in their talent pool, but the holes would be more filled with enough money freed to pay Johnson and Uggla out of the Lohse savings (with about $5 million taken from the $30 million or so open from free agency).

This trade could be to the Cardinals what the Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell deal was to the Boston Red Sox. This trade alone could put the Cardinals over the top. Add Holliday into the mix, and the Cardinals could easily be the best team in the National League.

Will it happen? I highly doubt it, but it could. As long as that window remains open, anything can happen.

Handing Out the MLB All-Decade Awards

Joel Koch — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:20:51 -0500

Seeing how it is award season now, with the Rookie of the Year awards coming within the next hour, I thought it'd be good to look at this past decade as a whole and name my awards.

While it will be difficult to name the Rookie of the Year as a decade (you'll see what I'll do there), I'm throwing in a new category and replacing an old.

No more Most Valuable Player. We're talking Player of the Decade for each league, and let us not forget the franchise of the decade for both leagues.

Forward, march!

American League Honors

Player of the Decade

Let us first start with the player of the decade. The choices are somewhat slim for this category. You have Alex Rodriguez, who takes the cake I baked, leading the majors in home runs and runs batted in for the decade.

Other players who can factor into the equation is Ichiro Suzuki, who led the American League in hitting throughout this decade, and, of course, Derek Jeter.

Winner: Alex Rodriguez

Cy Young of the Decade

The Cy Young winner of the decade is a lot tougher to judge. I have determined that for this category, to qualify, the pitcher must have spent more than three consecutive years in the league, while also spending the majority of the decade in the same league.

That means that pitchers like Livan Hernandez are out of the equation (for the American League), but Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett are in. It also means that John Santana is also considered for the award, despite playing in the National League for the past two seasons.

This award is difficult to determine. There are starters, like CC Sabathia and Santana, that could win the award hands down. There are also closers, such as Mariano Rivera, who could win.

For me though, I have to go with consistency from a starter. Closers are not Cy Young winners in my book. To me, anyone can be a closer and be good. It takes something special to go out on the field every five days, dominate, and do it all in six innings and 100-plus pitches.

Winner: Johan Santana

Apologies to: Pedro Martinez (five years in both leagues cancels him from both discussions), Sabathia (a very close vote), Rivera (closers man)

Rookie of the Decade

OK, Rookie of the Year will be very quick. You can only be a rookie for one season (usually), so I'm taking the best rookie season out of the decade and naming them the winner.

Winner: Ichiro (2001)

Manager of the Decade

This one is not hard. Who led his team to a postseason berth each season he managed the team? Which manager is among the best in the majors?

Winner: Joe Torre

Franchise of the Decade

This will be the toughest. There are three really good franchises to choose from. You have the Yankees, who opened and closed the decade with World Series wins. The most successful franchise of all time also led all Major League teams in wins for the decade.

The Boston Red Sox own two World Series berths and victories in the decade, along with seven postseason appearances. They own the second most victories in the decade, and are another top franchise of all-time.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, or the Anaheim Angels as they were called at the start of this decade, won the fourth most games in the Majors. They have a World Series title to go with it.

Winner: Red Sox

Apologies to: Yankees (sorry, buying titles is not the same as actually winning), Angels (only one World Series appearance and three ALCS appearances)

National League

Player of the Decade

This section will go very quickly; trust me. There isn't a lot of competition in many categories. Like the Player of the Decade discussion.

Albert Pujols won the National League Decade Triple Crown. Yes, he led the National League in home runs, runs batted in, and batting average for the ENTIRE decade, while not starting his career until 2001.

Let us not forget he placed second only to Rodriguez in home runs and runs batted in for the majors throughout the decade, while winning the decade batting title.

Winner: Albert Pujols

Cy Young of the Decade

The Cy Young will be one of discussion. Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Greg Maddux all fit into the discussion. Randy Johnson and Roy Oswalt also come into play.

For my awards, though, I choose a person who helped lead his team to a World Series title, posted four 15-plus-win seasons and started 30 or more games in six of his eight seasons in the National League.

Winner: Randy Johnson

Rookie of the Decade

This isn't difficult as well. In fact, you probably think I'm going to go with Pujols here because he posted an unbelievable 2001 season. No, though, I'm going with someone else.

This man put up incredible numbers while playing only four and a half months. Sure, his defense was suspect and he changed positions, but he is a key cog in a young and upcoming team.

Winner: Ryan Braun (2007)

Manager of the Decade

Manager of the Decade? This is somewhat tough, but between my bias and the fact that Bobby Cox is behind this man in every category for this decade, the winner is clear.

Winner: Tony La Russa

Franchise of the Decade

Not difficult. Which franchise has won more games than any other National League team in this decade? How about the team that appeared in eight of the 10 postseasons held this decade, and won two pennants with a World Series title.

I hate to brag, but how about the franchise that had only one losing season throughout the decade, owns the Player of the Decade and Manager of the Decade, while also boasting a Cy Young winner (possibly a second).

Winner: St. Louis Cardinals

Apologies to: No one

Feel free to disagree, but those are my winners.

Why Mark McGwire's Return Will Benefit the Cardinals

Joel Koch — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 11:57:25 -0400

Yes, his name is Mark McGwire. It isn't Mark McGuire, nor is it Mark Maguire, because he is not related to the main character of the movie Jerry Maguire. Spelling is a virtue.

He is also the new hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals. Do I care about this?

You better freaking believe it.

McGwire is my all-time favorite player. There was Dave Stewart, Dennis Eckersley, Jose Canseco (yes, even him), Tom Henke, Nolan Ryan, and now Albert Pujols. As you can tell, I was a fan of the early 1990 Athletics, the first team I rooted for before I saw the light and rooted for the Cardinals...at age five.

There were all of those players, but McGwire stands alone at the top of my list. He stands there with an adolescent's bedroom filled with McGwire posters, pictures, jerseys, shirts, and a card collection.

McGwire will make an excellent hitting coach.

McGwire has already worked wonders with Skip Schumaker.

Sure, point out his misses with Chris Duncan and Matt Holliday.

Holliday wasn't ready to dump the leg kick. It became a part of him, and he didn't know how to handle the bat without his leg kick.

Duncan's issues did not stem from his stance, trigger, or anything else. His problems came from injuries and a wish to waste away his sorrows (Josh Hancock), injuries, fan backlash, and bad numbers in a place I can't mention for fear of libel/slander.

Is a blog libel or slander? There's something to think about if you're upset I haven't mentioned steroids yet.

McGwire knows how to hit, as evidenced by his 583 home runs. Yes, his career batting average is .263, and he would strike out, hit a home run, or walk 47 percent of the time in his career.

Who cares? The Cardinals had a problem with on-base percentage and hitting the ball with authority.

A .391 career on-base percentage and 583 home runs enter the equation here.

McGwire had one of the best eyes in baseball. He could see exactly where a ball was going. You can't teach an eye to players, but you can teach how to improve theirs.

Video and the fact that McGwire knows how to hit will help these players. How much is dependent on if they listen.

That was the problem with McGwire's predecessor, Hal McRae. McRae came in and got everyone to listen, and therefore was successful.

In 2008, the players still listened but tuned him out some.

In 2009, they tuned him out completely and didn't care what he said. Why? He didn't really know what he was talking about. He preached the same thing over and over, never backing off.

If a player was having a problem with what he was saying, he'd tell them they were doing it wrong, and he wouldn't help them until they started to get it.

Great strategy, no?

He waited until either they understood what he was saying and had adapted it before he'd help them go the distance. The problem was that his strategy didn't work, and the team knew that.

He wanted singles. Singles would conquer everything, even the common cold.

The players knew that singles were great, but extra base hits would score. Singles got there, but it would take two or three more singles to drive in the first guy.

Enter McGwire, or Mr. Extra Base Hit.

This team will listen. Count on that.

Steroids

What they will also listen to is what McGwire says about steroid use. Happy now? I mentioned it.

I for one firmly believe that McGwire did nothing wrong. Steroids were not illegal in Major League Baseball in the 1990s.

My main reason he didn't do anything wrong: I firmly believe he took steroids in the very early 1990s and was off steroids well before 1997. That pins the use to 1991-1996, and that is at the latest.

Know what happened in that time frame? A lot of injuries.

McGwire was injured constantly during that time, and he wanted to stay in the lineup to help the team win. Did he do the right thing? Nope, but he did do what he thought was best.

The question remains, though, is whether or not he will admit to it.

As his number one fan, I hope he does.

I am hoping for an Alex Rodriguez-like press conference. One day, a few hours long, and McGwire answering questions.

He comes out and says he did steroids, when he did steroids, when he stopped, and why. Did he get caught? Was he afraid of what would happen to him if he did finally get caught?

Open up about it and then have a question and answer period for the media present. Finish it off and then leave it there. Any more questions asked about it will get the answer, "I'm not here to talk about the past anymore. I'm here to help these guys hit better with that tree limb in their hands."

And yes, he should most definitely say that. It is funny, to lighten the mood, and true. He answered the past, so leave him alone about it. You missed the press conference; therefore you gave up your right to ask him about his steroid use.

Why would I like to see him do this?

First, it will relieve some of the circus that will inevitably surround him. That allows for him to get to work and stay at work without constantly answering questions.

Second, if a player starts playing well, it would allow for a rational answer (started seeing the ball well, or McGwire does have some magic and helped him) instead of the irrational answer that McGwire is juicing the player.

Thirdly, it might actually allow him to finally get into the Hall of Fame—every player's dream.

Even for the player who says it doesn't matter to him.

Best-Case Scenario: Milton Bradley

Joel Koch — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:47:14 -0400

Milton Bradley and his contract didn't work out for the Chicago Cubs. Gee, who didn't see that coming?

The Cubs want to get out from under Bradley's contract, and pick up something useful in return. They have very little payroll flexibility and need a lot of things, including talent (zing).

The best-case scenario for the Bradley saga to end on the north side, while adding a needed piece, exists. Yes, it does, and it exists north of the border.

Vernon Wells.

Okay, I'll give you a second to get back up off of the floor, either from falling out of your chair in a giant fit of laughter or dropping from shock.

Yes, Wells represents the best option for the Cubs.

Let's look at this a little more in-depth.

Wells is a fly ball hitter, which works well in Toronto. His fly balls turn into doubles, but also into outs.

In Wrigley Field, can you say home runs?

More importantly, Wells would be working with one of the best hitting coaches around in Rudy Jarmillo. His work with Wells could turn him into a more solid hitter.

Bradley's gap power would work well in Toronto, where he could pull off more doubles and home runs at the new Yankee Stadium.

Okay, you can stop laughing now...really. Here is the trade proposal, which will make all you laughing Cubs fans happy: Mike Fontenot and Milton Bradley for Vernon Wells, Jeremy Accardo, Jose Bautista, and cash.

Fontenot is a non-tender candidate for the Cubs and could serve a purpose for the Blue Jays.

Fontenot is a second baseman by trade, but played a lot of third base in 2009 because of Aramis Ramirez's injuries. By adding Fontenot, the Blue Jays could either platoon him with Edwin Encarnacion, or trade/non-tender Encarnacion to start Fontenot full-time.

Bautista and Accardo are also non-tender candidates, but both can serve a purpose for the Cubs.

Bautista can play all three outfield spots, along with both corner infield positions. He has also played second base on occasion, giving the Cubs a valuable utility player in case of injuries again.

Accardo would take the place of Kevin Gregg, for cheaper, and serve as the setup man to Carlos Marmol. With his 38 career saves, Accardo can also serve as a secondary closer as protection.

Wells, while filling a glaring need for the Cubs in center field, would serve as a lower-third batter in the lineup, giving the lineup more depth.

While it would take away another left-handed bat from the lineup, Wells' numbers would drastically improve in the bandbox known as Wrigley field, not to mention in a hitter-friendly division.

Let us not forget that Wells has won two Gold Gloves in center field, and while his defense has fallen off in recent years, Wrigley Field's small dimensions would serve Wells better.

The cash involved from the Blue Jays would be $6 million for 2010, $15 million for 2011, and $12 million in each of 2012-14. In case you were wondering, that's $57 million over the five seasons he would be in Chicago.

Just to show how significant that is for the Cubs, here's Wells' contract with the Cubs compared to the Blue Jays:

2010: $6.5 million ($2 million saved)
2011: $8 million ($4 million saved)
2012-14: $9 million
Total: $41.5 million over five seasons, or $8.3 million per season

That amount for a center fielder in today's game is a great bargain.

Not so much for the Blue Jays.

This is where the problem ensues for Toronto. They would add Bradley's entire salary, meaning that they would be paying $15 million to Bradley in 2010, or $2.5 million more than they would have paid Wells.

The main reason behind the trade is to add offense, as Bradley has shown the ability to hit well in the American League.

This would allow for the Blue Jays to rotate Bradley, Adam Lind, and Travis Snider through the DH and corner outfield roles.

How would the Blue Jays fill center field? Marlon Byrd.

Yes, the Blue Jays would have to allow for Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas to leave via free agency, and possibly rely on Angel Sanchez to cover the shortstop role, but all in the name of competing.

The Blue Jays have to build a strong foundation through the minors to compete in the AL East, and that starts by trading Wells.

Why? Bradley, with two years remaining on his contract, could become a Type A free agent with two good years in Toronto, and because he can DH, that is very likely.

Scutaro and Barajas will bring back draft picks, as well.

So while on paper the Blue Jays would not be as good of a team as they were in 2009, it would make for a nice start.

St. Louis Cardinals: Offseason Personnel Plan

Joel Koch — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 23:53:44 -0400

The St. Louis Cardinals enter the offseason in a frustrated, yet excited state.

They were just swept out of the playoffs. Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Joel Pineiro, Rick Ankiel, and John Smoltz enter free agency. Tony La Russa and the entire coaching staff are free agents.

But, the Cardinals did make the playoffs for the first time since 2006, and have a great base of young talent brewing.

Decisions, decisions.

What should the Cardinals do?

I am here to help.

First off, the Cardinals need to break from tradition and not go down to the wire with their arbitration eligible players. They will have two players that are eligible for arbitration, and both need to be signed right away.

Skip Schumaker, who enters his first year of arbitration, and Ryan Ludwick, in his second, are this year's arbitration players. Both can be signed.

Schumaker just made the rough switch from career outfielder to average defensive second baseman, and therefore deserves a good amount of money.

A $1.5 million salary should not be seen as low, considering 2009 was Schumaker's second full season, and may be too high. Still, it's a good number for an integral part of the team.

Ludwick may be tougher. Ludwick and the Cardinals agreed to $3.7 million for the 2009 season. After a regression, due in large part to injuries and a lack of playing time, Ludwick is still due a raise.

The question is how much? The answer is a contract worth $5 million. If Ludwick takes the offer, which he should as the arbitrator would rule for the club, he can set himself up for a long-term contract after the 2010 season.

Why? He would be affordable, and if he produces a line somewhere between 2008 and 2009, he would be one of the better bats to come to the Cardinals in some time.

The other players that could be up for arbitration are Brad Thompson, Josh Kinney, and Joe Thurston.

What to do? Cut them. All three of them.

Thompson has proven to not be the pitcher many thought he was going to be coming through the system and after the 2006 postseason. The same goes for Kinney.

Thurston hasn't really been anything for the Cardinals, except maybe a player taking time away from more deserving players.

All three can be, and for the most part have been, replaced by others.

If the Cardinals can trade all three players, great. More than likely, all three will be non-tendered and become afterthoughts.

This will also clear a congested 40 man roster that has been filled to an almost full 39 players.

Speaking of the 40 man roster, Matt Scherer needs to be removed. He is right handed relief, something the Cardinals have plenty of, and is no special talent. He is a journeyman reliever in the making.

This leaves us with the actual free agent market. The Cardinals will have nine free agents (before non-tenders) leaving the team. They are: Troy Glaus, DeRosa, Smoltz, Todd Wellemeyer, Pineiro, Ankiel, Holliday, Khalil Greene, and Jason LaRue.

What should the Cardinals do with their newfound wealth of open roster spots and money?

Barely anything.

Many fans will tell you that Holliday and DeRosa have to be re-signed for the team to compete. I am here to tell you that is false.

Sure, Holliday and DeRosa are great players and would keep the Cardinals lineup a force, but those days of spending unwisely are behind the Cardinals.

Now, it is all about the up-and-coming talent. This year, the Cardinals will use it to their advantage.

The team needs to sign three free agents. Read that again: three.

Which three?

Hideki Matsui, Smoltz, and B.J. Ryan.

Matsui will be a free agent (the New York Yankees will not re-sign him) and will be looking for a job this offseason. He has been labeled as a designated hitter, and has mentioned he would be willing to try first base.

Not needed in St. Louis.

The left field job is open and Matsui has two important qualifications: run producer and bats left handed.

Sure, he hasn't played the outfield on a regular basis since 2007, and 2005 was the last season he started 120 or more games in the outfield.

This is where the up-and-coming talent helps Matsui with his Cardinals career, and could save the Cardinals some money.

Allen Craig is a right handed hitting force and can play the corner infield and outfield. He represents a strong pinch hitter off of the bench, and a utility type player.

Mixing and matching between Matsui and Craig in a platoon could produce some very strong results. Neither will be over-matched, in theory.

How will the Cardinals attain this type of platoon? By signing Matsui to a club friendly contract with incentives that turns it into a player friendly contract.

The base salary of the contract would be $5 million, with $6.345 million incentives available. No option would be attached, so Matsui could either negotiate an extension with the Cardinals or reenter the free agent pool after showing he can play the outfield everyday still.

Win-win for both sides.

The incentives would be:

Plate Apps
	200	$50,000
	250	$50,000
	300	$100,000
	325	$100,000
	350	$100,000
	375	$100,000
	400	$150,000
	450	$150,000
	500	$250,000
	525	$250,000
	550	$250,000
	575	$250,000
	600	$300,000
Up to 700, every 25		$400,000
Health
Opening Day		$100,000
	May 01	$50,000
	Jun 01	$50,000
	Jul 01	$50,000
	Aug 01	$50,000
	Sep 01	$50,000
	Oct 01	$50,000

Awards
All-Star Reserve		$15,000
All-Star Starter		$30,000
Gold Glove		$50,000
	LCS MVP	$100,000
	WS MVP	$200,000
Silver Slugger		$100,000
MVP	1	$250,000
	2-4	$125,000
	5-8	$75,000
	9-10	$50,000
	Traded	$1,250,000

	PA	$3,700,000
	Health	$400,000
	Awards	$2,245,000
	Total	$6,345,000

I hope that is easy to understand. The incentives are more complicated than other contracts like it because Matsui has played 171 games in the outfield over the last four seasons.

As you can see, though, a full season from Matsui would earn him a lot of money, especially if he is traded. That clause should be added in case the Cardinals have another 2007 season, and Matsui is playing well enough to garner trade deadline calls.

For Smoltz, the contract is almost similar. The two differences, one more obvious than the other, is that he is a pitcher (obvious) and not a health liability (hopefully).

Smoltz's contract would too be worth a $5 million base salary, but he could obtain $5.95 million in incentives.

His contract incentives would be set up as follows:

Starts
	18	$100,000
	20	$100,000
	22	$100,000
	24	$150,000
	26	$150,000
	28	$200,000
	30	$200,000
Up to 33, every 1		$350,000
Innings
	130	$150,000
	140	$150,000
	150	$150,000
	160	$200,000
	170	$200,000
	180	$200,000
	190	$250,000
	200	$250,000
Up to 230, every 10		$500,000
	Total	$5,950,000

Smoltz's incentives are setup for him to be a number five starter, and can raise up to ace level. Again, club friendly contract which can turn into player friendly by the end of the season.

Ryan will take some explaining and convincing.

He was released twice in 2009, first by the Toronto Blue Jays, then by the Chicago Cubs. He was not effective at all for the Blue Jays last season.

The good news is that Ryan was effective in 2008, a year removed from Tommy John surgery, and effective for the Cubs at their Triple A affiliate.

The reason the Cardinals should sign Ryan is for insurance issues. Ryan is a closer and would represent insurance to a Ryan Franklin blow up, or when Franklin needs a rest day.

He would also serve as left handed insurance to Miller and Reyes, so they do not have to come in almost every game. Not to mention Ryan would serve as bridge insurance to Franklin, since the young pitchers are more prone to faltering as the year goes on.

Basically, Ryan fills many needs and on the cheap.

Should his being cheap mean the Cardinals should sign him at the Major League minimum? No, that would be an insult at the start of a season.

Ryan is still owed $10 million from the Blue Jays, so he would only have to be signed to a $400 thousand contract.

Ryan, if he is indeed signed, should be signed to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. This protects the Cardinals from spending money in case Ryan does not look like his normal self.

If he would make the roster, Ryan would achieve a $400 thousand contract with a club option for 2011, worth $1 million ($200 thousand buyout). His incentives would be setup as follows:

Opening Day		$100,000
G Pitched
	20	$25,000
	30	$30,000
	40	$30,000
	50	$40,000
	60	$50,000
Up to 80, every 5		$75,000
G Finished
	15	$15,000
	20	$25,000
	25	$30,000
	30	$35,000
	35	$40,000
Up to 50, every 5		$50,000
Awards
	Rolaids	$50,000
	All-Star	$50,000

	Total	$970,000

He has a chance to earn $970 thousand in incentives, and has bonuses worked into the contract in case he takes the closer job away from Franklin, whether by performance or injury.

His club option would be setup as:

Option
Base	$1,000,000
Buyout	$200,000

GP 50	$150,000
GF 30	$150,000
Rolaids	$300,000
All-Star	$300,000

Pot. Total	$1,900,000

His option will go on the rise if he achieves full year marks, and if he becomes the closer. Both years could bring great value to the Cardinals if he pitches up to his normal ability.

Are these three players the best options for the Cardinals? No.

Are they the best players available for their positions? No.

Does signing these three show the want to win, while not financially crippling the franchise by signing players to outrageous contracts that could have a large ripple effect within the organization, which could end with Albert Pujols leaving after the 2011 season? Yes.

These three represent the best way to improve the team for 2010 in many ways.

First off, performance. If all three perform the way they can, the 2010 Cardinals could be the best in the National League.

Secondly, they are stop gaps for young players. Since Smoltz and Matsui can leave after the season, they can pave the way for young players to be major factors in 2011 (Craig and Hawksworth at the top of that list).

For Ryan, he represents another experience voice in the bullpen for young pitchers.

Thirdly, they are on the cheap and only get expensive as they perform, which is how contracts should operate.

In case you were wondering how the roster would shape up, based on signings and minor league players, here is how I have it envisioned:

C		Yadier Molina
1B		Albert Pujols
2B		Skip Schumaker
3B		David Freese
SS		Brendan Ryan
LF		Hideki Matsui
CF		Colby Rasmus
RF		Ryan Ludwick
B		Matt Pagnozzi
B		Julio Lugo
B		Tyler Greene
B		Jon Jay
B		Allen Craig

SP		Chris Carpenter
SP		Adam Wainwright
SP		Kyle Lohse
SP		John Smoltz
SP		Jamie Garcia
Bu		Kyle McClellan
Bu		Blake Hawksworth
Bu		Dennys Reyes
Bu		Trever Miller
Bu		Jason Motte
Bu		B.J. Ryan
Bu		Ryan Franklin

Not a bad configuration for the 2010 Cardinals.

***All contract information was obtained from Cot's . All statistics were obtained from MLB.com .***

Laying Out the St. Louis Cardinals' Offseason

Joel Koch — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 23:19:32 -0400

The St. Louis Cardinals are facing a pivotal offseason. Albert Pujols has two years left on his contract and has stated again that he wants to wait and see the commitment.

The Cardinals traded a lot of depth to win now and lost. Those pieces are free agents.

The Cardinals have $56 million committed to eight players (and Julio Lugo for free). So how will they spend that?

The Cardinals will have two rotation openings. They will also have an opening at third base, left field, and four open bench roles. Some can be filled from within, while others will be addressed from outside.

Rotation

The Cardinals will have Todd Wellemeyer and John Smoltz leaving via free agency. General manager John Mozeliak has said he wants to address one role from within and address the other opening through free agency.

Jamie Garcia is the current favorite to land a rotation job. Smoltz is the most likely guy to take the other because of the Cardinals' familiarity with him, and he'll be a year removed from shoulder surgery rather than a few months.

One possible route, but highly unlikely because of the dollars and years it will take to commit, is trading Kyle Lohse. Lohse had a down 2009 and is set to start making the real money in his contract.

The Cardinals can address a need by dealing Lohse, but the problem is that Lohse has a full no-trade clause. If he would be willing to waive it, the Cardinals could find a taker if they are willing to eat about $5-7 million of the total amount owed to Lohse.

The reason that dealing Lohse would make sense is that the Cardinals could replace him with John Lackey.

Now, hear me out. The Cardinals currently have more than $30 million coming off the books, and if Lohse was traded, that would free up more. With not a lot of raises coming via arbitration, the signing could be conceivable.

The issue: dollars and years. Lackey will probably command a five-year, $90 million contract. If Lohse was traded, the Cardinals could match that easily and create the best 1-2-3 rotation punch in recent memory.

Will it happen? No, but Mozeliak has proven to have surprises up his sleeve. Do not be shocked if he tries to pull off something big like this.

Arbitration

The Cardinals have one Type A free agent (Matt Holliday) and three Type B free agents (Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa, Joel Pineiro). Pineiro, Holliday, and DeRosa are almost locks to be offered arbitration.

Glaus could be a wild card. The best thing that can happen is that he declines. He won't cost a team a first round pick, meaning he could be easily signed, especially when he's coming off an injury-plagued season.

The worst thing is that he accepts and does not agree to a one-year, incentive-laden contract. If he would agree to that, it wouldn't be the worse thing in the world.

Left Field

If you noticed what I just said above (that thing about Lackey), you'll realize that means no Holliday. In fact, without Lackey, there should be no Holliday.

Holliday is a very good player, don't get me wrong. The issue is that despite his notions about comfort over dollars, his agent is none other than Scott Boras himself. If Holliday wanted to go with comfort, he would still be a Colorado Rockie for close to $16 million a season.

It will take more than that to re-sign him.

The Cardinals are not the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. They cannot afford that kind of contract matched with Pujols's next contract in a dying market.

Let's say that Holliday will make $20 million a year, and Pujols's next contract starts at $20 million. Add in that the Cardinals pick up Chris Carpenter's $15 million option and Adam Wainwright's $9 million option (duh).

That would be $64 million committed to FOUR players. If Lohse is still on the team and Yadier Molina's option is picked up, that is another $19 million tacked on.

If you can add, that is $83 million in a dying market committed to SIX players.

Doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room.

The only true reason Holliday should be re-signed is because it will give Pujols some false notion that the Cardinals are committed to winning.

News flash: You can be committed without overpaying money to one player.

There are really three candidates for the left field job: Allen Craig (the most likely), Jon Jay, and Holliday.

Third Base

The Cardinals will be losing DeRosa and Glaus to free agency. While the Cardinals will try to re-up with DeRosa, it could easily backfire.

DeRosa will not be looking for an incentive-laden contract, and that is what the Cardinals will probably offer. He is not a $10 million per year player, the kind of money a stupid team (insert New York Mets joke here) will pay for his great services.

If he does sign, probability for returning at full strength, while on the back nine of career, from the type of injury he has, is unlikely. His numbers will likely decline, sticking the Cardinals with a bad contract...again.

David Freese is more than ready with the glove to take over the hot corner. While he won't post the numbers would you expect from a third baseman (20-25 home runs, .280-plus average, 85-plus runs batted in), he will post a decent line for a rookie four years removed from college.

His glove will be the asset anyway. Everyone knows that. His bat will come, a la Ryan Ludwick, but the glove will be there. In that respect, he could easily perform at the same or a better level than the 2010 DeRosa.

However, the Cardinals could go with Glaus. He did miss a lot of time, but being a Type B free agent, he could and should be offered arbitration. If he declines, draft pick. If he accepts, well, that's where it gets tricky.

Glaus will not get a multi-year deal from any team (insert another Mets joke here), but he could better his chances if he did accept arbitration. The Cardinals could give Glaus a one-year deal with a base salary of $3 million, plus $5 million in incentives.

The incentives would not be impossible. It would be for games played, started, and plate appearances. He would also platoon with Freese in a way to phase Freese in, while phasing Glaus out in a good way.

At the end of the season, Glaus would make close to full incentives, Freese would have valuable playing time, and the Cardinals would have good production from the hot corner.

Win-win.

Bench

Jason LaRue, Rick Ankiel, Khalil Greene, Glaus, and Joe Thurston are on their way out of St. Louis. The only one of the group that could feasibly return would be LaRue, but that too is unlikely.

Ankiel and Greene are guaranteed goners. No doubt. Ankiel was told where he fit in the plans when he sat all three postseason games for Colby Rasmus. Greene was told when he was left off the postseason roster entirely.

Thurston is a likely goner as his production dropped way off after April and his usefulness went with it. With Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso on the cusp, Thurston is without a job.

Glaus, we touched on. LaRue could be back, but as I said, unlikely. Matt Pagnozzi impressed the coaching staff with his game calling and receiving abilities this spring and September, and while his bat is a work in progress, he has the thumbs up from most everyone.

LaRue could also land a starting job. He has shown he can handle a backup role and has been a starter in the past. With his success off the bench, he can convince a team to give him a small deal with some incentives to give him a chance every day.

The likely bench configuration, barring surprises, would be: Pagnozzi, T. Greene, Lugo, Jay, Shane Robinson/Joe Mather/Nick Stavinoha.

Bullpen

Believe it or not, the bullpen is set. Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes are both signed for 2010. Ryan Franklin is also signed. Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Brad Thompson, Blake Hawksworth, Josh Kinney, and P.J. Walters are under club control.

The issue here is that the Cardinals still lack a true closer. I will be the first to back up Franklin and say how good he is, but he is not a true stopper. His stuff is not that of a closer in today's game. He is an unbelievable setup man, but not a closer.

Where will the Cardinals find that true closer?

Remember that Lohse being traded proposition?

Lohse to the Chicago White Sox for Bobby Jenks.

The White Sox need to and will dump Jenks. Lohse could be the best piece they receive.

Not many teams are in need of a closer, leaving the White Sox to cut Jenks and get nothing in exchange. Trading for Lohse would not only allow for more pitching depth (pushing Freddy Garcia to a sixth starter role), but it wouldn't add much payroll either.

Jenks would more than likely earn close to the same amount as Lohse in the 2010 season. The White Sox will also be losing Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski's contracts after 2010 (not to mention Jermaine Dye and Octavio Dotel's this season), making Lohse affordable.

Likely to happen? Nope, not in the least bit. But it is a thought that will be thrown around within the Cardinals' front office, maybe even talked about between Kenny Williams and Mozeliak.

Reassessing Cardinals Coaching

Joel Koch — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:56:00 -0400

Here are the playoffs, and there go the playoffs. The Cardinals, like their National League Central predecessors the past two years, were swept out of the playoffs by NL West teams. Now, the Cardinals need to look ahead.

I have already written an article about the Cardinals coaching staff, but some new information has come to light, as well as changing opinions. So, here is my revised coaching staff article. Enjoy.

Jose Oquendo still needs to be made the next manager. The Cardinals are walking a fine line with Albert Pujols and bringing in a completely new voice could break the chances the Cardinals have to re-up with the best slugger in recent memory.

Oquendo knows the team and the organization inside and out. He has a good working relationship with General Manager John Mozeliak, not to mention with the ownership group led by Bill DeWitt.

Most of all, the players trust Oquendo. They know he will always have their back and that he deserves this job more than anyone else in baseball. He has paid his dues and it is time. If not for the Cardinals, it will be elsewhere.

I am changing my pick for the next pitching coach. I had Marty Mason pegged as the man behind the binder for the Cardinals, but not anymore.

Mason deserves to be a pitching coach, but he is far too valuable in the bullpen for the Cardinals. For the starting staff, the Cardinals need a completely different voice. Rick Peterson would be the best option.

Peterson is great when working with pitchers. He isn't Dave Duncan, but when you list the best pitching coaches over the past two decades, Peterson's name isn't too far behind Duncan.

It is true the Milwaukee Brewers are trying to obtain Peterson for their vacancy, but the Cardinals could pull him away. If they cannot pull him down, they need to stay outside of the organization.

The other top candidates would be: Mike Matheny (have to start coaching somewhere), Todd Worrell, John Farell, Leo Mazzone, John Wetteland (if Mason is promoted to pitching coach, Wetteland would be the bullpen coach), and Dennis Eckersley.

For hitting coach, the Cardinals could run into severe problems. I had Hal McRae pegged to retain his job, but things change over eight months. Players have tried not throw McRae under the bus, but as they avoided doing so, they implied that they did not want him back.

For the job, the Cardinals will run into issues filling the role. The obvious choice, no matter anyone's sentiments towards him, would be Mark McGwire. As he is unlikely to take up the job due to the issues surrounding him and the media that would follow him everywhere if he took up the helm, someone else needs to come onboard.

Other possible candidates would be Larry Walker, Reggie Sanders, Bill Mueller, and the Colorado Rockies hitting coordinator Jimmy Johnson. Can't go wrong with the first three.

Johnson would be an interesting pick. He has been with the Rockies system for several years and would represent a changing philosophy on hitting, something that needs to happen after three lackluster years under McRae.

Joe Petini should remain as bench coach. He handles the job well, the players trust him, and is connected with Oquendo. A change there is not necessary.

First base coach is a different story. Dave McKay should not be replaced, but he will be. Not for any reason you can think of, but for one that some did not see coming: retirement.

McKay is looking to retire after the season, and he more than likely will if Tony La Russa moves on, even if Oquendo takes over.

The best replacement would be Willie McGee. Fans would welcome this addition to the coaching staff with open arms, and McGee is a great influence on players, even as a coach.

If McGee will not take the job, or is not offered the job, this spot will be filled from within. Petini would be represent the best Plan B. Along with Petini, Derrick May (Double A Springfield's hitting coach) and Chris Maloney (Triple A Memphis' manager) would be candidates for the job.

At third base, Ron Warner (Springfield's manager) is the best and only choice. If Oquendo leaves or is upgraded to manager, Warner will be the next third base coach for the Cardinals.

For my dream team of coaches, I will offer up two. The one I really hope for, the other a more logical and realistic staff.

Manager: Jose Oquendo
Pitching Coach: Mike Matheny
Hitting Coach: Larry Walker
Bench Coach: Joe Petini
First & Third Base Coaches: Willie McGee and Ron Warner

Now, for the realistic staff. This is "realistic" because of Walker's preference to travel rarely because of his children being younger, the same for Matheny. Also taken into the equation is McGee probably not wanting to be a Major League coach.

Manager: Jose Oquendo
Pitching: Rick Peterson or Marty Mason
Hitting: Reggie Sanders* or Jimmy Johnson**
Bench: Joe Petini
First & Third: Derrick May and Ron Warner

The * next to Sanders is there because Sanders could very well take the job. He would be welcomed by the fans, and the players remember him well. He has a great knack for hitting and would represent the second best choice for a hitting coach (Walker would be the best choice).

The ** for Johnson is there as he is the last choice of the four. Mueller probably will not want to jump ship from the Los Angeles Dodgers front office because of his knee issues.

The Cardinals have a very important off-season coming up. Don't think it only consists of player free agents, as their future will not only be based on the player aspect, but the coaching staff changes as well.

Trading Albert Pujols: Absurd or Plausible?

Joel Koch — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 22:59:16 -0400

I know I should be shot for even thinking, yet alone suggesting, that the St. Louis Cardinals should trade Albert Pujols. Shoot me later, please. I have some explaining to do.

I am not implying, saying, inferring, or suggesting that the Cardinals trade Pujols now. Why should they? Pujols is a Cardinal for 2010, without a doubt.

What I am saying is that the Cardinals should consider trading Pujols after 2010 if he says he wants to test the open market. If Pujols is open to an extension, it needs to get done. When it gets done, throw this suggestion out the window.

If Pujols says that he wants to test the free agent market, the Cardinals should consider dealing Pujols. Why?

Think of the suitors.

If the Cardinals say "Pujols" and "trade" in the same sentence, even if they aren't talking about Pujols being traded, they get 15 calls.

Think about if they actually say, "We are open to a deal for Albert Pujols."

Can you say flood?

Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, and plenty more will willingly lineup to take Pujols off the Cardinals hands, and give the appropriate package of talent.

Here is where it gets fun for the Cardinals, tricky for other teams.

Remember when I said that the Cardinals should only consider trading Pujols after 2010, and after he tells the team he wants to test the open market? That opinion will not change even if he is traded.

Know what that means?

The Cardinals land the best package of prospects and players ever, and have every chance in the world to sign Pujols after 2011.

Of course, they would have to pony up the market value dough for Pujols, and probably would not get a discount of any kind. The possibility, though, is intriguing.

Pujols would command a type of package that general managers can only dream of. Let me give you some examples: Mark Teixeira (traded to the Atlanta Braves), CC Sabathia, Erik Bedard, and Scott Kazmir.

Oh, did I mention that when I mention all of those names, I mean all of those deals as one? Yeah, it would take that, even for just one year. And that wouldn't be the asking price; that would be the assumed price. No team would go into the sweepstakes thinking they could part with a couple marginal prospects.

You want in, you bring all your Star Wars action figures to the sandbox, and you expect to leave with just the Death Star.

Teams will create a line longer than the ones made for the opening of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. Mozeliak would be blown away by offers right away and try to hold out. Why?

Because he can.

No team will back out of a possible trade for Pujols, no matter the cost. The prospect of the public relations hit to that team would be catastrophic.

Think if the Red Sox created the best possible offer for Pujols and the Yankees made the second best. The only thing stopping the Yankees from landing Pujols was their reluctance to include one player. Hell would ensue in the Bronx.

People would be screaming and killing to find out why the hated Red Sox landed the prize instead of the Great Galactic Empire.

That is what the Cardinals can bank on. Egos and rivalries. Those mixed together in the race for the best would create amazing packages of players.

But, like I said: this only happens if the Cardinals do not sign Pujols to an extension, and he tells the team he wants to test the open market.

Honestly, if that happens, why not?

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

Joel Koch — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:08:51 -0400

The St. Louis Cardinals are well on their way to a postseason berth. They own a 10-1/2 game lead over the Chicago Cubs, and are almost a lock for the playoffs.

The team has the fan base remembering the 2004 and 2005 dominance, though I could go for an eight game losing streak so the team looks more like the 2006 team. You remember that team, don't you? They hoisted a trophy that year.

Yes, life is good in St. Louis...

For now.

The Cardinals have a grim offseason creeping up on them, which has shades of the 2006-07 offseason. They have free agent pitchers, some crucial components, and a few free agent hitters that could make or break this team in 2010.

Oh, did I forget to mention that this will all come when Albert Pujols is a free agent in two years? Yeah, not a good thought.

John Mozeliak has done a wonderful job rebuilding this team for the season. He's added power bats (Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa), a complementary bat (Julio Lugo), and a solid pitcher (John Smoltz). These four are better known as the four divine baseball prophets: Matthew, Mark, Lugo, and John.

While these moves were done with the approval of the fan base, team, and coaching staff, Mozeliak got his fair share of headaches.

Now, he's up for it again, but for different reasons.

He must decide what to do with a dominant team that may very well win the World Series and keep the team winning to avoid another two year disgrace period that had some fans standing on their roofs wondering whether or not to jump.

This is the period that will determine Mozeliak's fate as a general manager. It will make or break him.

He had a decent 2007-08 offseason which saw him flash some brilliance and creativity. He had a stand-pat stance in 2008, and a moderate approach in the following offseason. In 2009, it was all about winning.

He shifts from standing to moving, and this offseason will show which type he is: stand pat and watch, while filling in what he needs, or a moving general manager who is always on the look-out for upgrades, while creatively filling out his roster.

For Mozeliak, there are issues, hurdles, and achievements that he needs to address without blinking and looking back.

They include:

Determining what to do with an entire coaching staff that is up for contract renewal
Deciding if Dave Duncan is still a fit for the team
Albert Pujols and his upcoming contract extension
Not implicating the payroll in a just a few years
Re-signing key players without affecting the previous two hurdles

Yes, there is a lot to do for a man who has become the most loved person in the Midwest, and the most hated if you travel up Interstate 55.

Coaching Staff Dilemmas

Tony La Russa does not have a contract for 2010. Neither does Jose Oquendo, Dave McKay, Dave Duncan, and the rest of the top coaching staff in the game. Problem? Just a teeny tiny bit.

La Russa wants to win now and he has developed, not the same kind of relationship that he had with Walt Jocketty, but a good relationship with Mozeliak. The recent fan lashing of Todd Wellemeyer, Chris Duncan, and La Russa's handling of each situation could strain this relationship.

Solution: End the relationship now. Oquendo is more than ready to take on a managerial gig, and La Russa is leaving on a high note, even if the Cardinals fail to advance within the playoffs.

Two straight bad seasons, a revival, the best coaching job of his career, a World Series trophy, two (maybe three) World Series appearances, all-time wins leader as a Cardinals Manager, and third on the all-time wins list is a good resume to leave with.

La Russa needs to go, and not with a bad breakup. Mozeliak needs to talk to La Russa after the season, explain the situation, and have a nice long talk. Most importantly, though, Mozeliak needs to let La Russa host a press conference explaining that he feels like he needs to walk away from the Cardinals.

If the Cardinals come out and say that La Russa will not be retained, it will be a press nightmare for the franchise. Letting La Russa do it himself not only lets him leave with his head held high, but it lets the franchise move on without having to constantly explain their situation. Both sides win, both sides look good.

As for Duncan, well, he needs to go to. His son is in an alcoholic rehabilitation clinic (this from reliable information) and he needs to worry about him. He obviously is not happy with the media, from his infamous spat with Kevin Slaten, to his recent stance of not speaking with the media, and he certainly is not happy with the treatment of Chris Duncan from the fans.

Duncan needs to leave the organization, get his head straight, and move on. This will be a bitter divorce no matter what. The Cardinals and Duncan are no longer a fit, and it is a shame too. Of all the players Duncan has coached, his finest job has been in St. Louis. Argue and debate all you want, but this is true: the La Russa/Duncan tandem have had their finest years under the Arch's shadow.

Where to go from here? A Oquendo and Marty Mason/Rick Peterson (pick your pitching coach because either would be good) tandem would keep the team flying high, especially if Mason is chosen as the next pitching coach.

Albert Pujols

Pujols is the best player in recent memory, hands down. No arguments, please because you'll only make yourself look foolish. He is clean, he has power, he hits for average, he is humble, he's a humanitarian, and he is an excellent teammate.

What the Cardinals do this offseason needs to be shaped around Pujols.

Pujols is signed through 2010, with a 2011 club option which will be picked up. If it isn't, watch for a Mozeliak firing right then and there.

Speaking of Mozeliak, he needs to make this Undesirable No. 1 this offseason. Pujols needs an extension. A "life-time" contract would make every fan happy, or even a three-year extension.

Whatever contract Mozeliak deems worthy to offer, and Pujols deems worthy to accept, the fan base will take a collective deep breath. Nothing worries a fan base more than losing the face of the franchise.

Nothing.

I have been a proponent of a 10-year, $200 million contract with a signing bonus to up the current year worth of his 2010 and 2011 salaries to $20 million, so it is a constant number. No reduction, no addition. Mark it down for $20 million, and you know exactly what you have to spend.

Will this happen? Who knows, really. Some have thrown around a five year, $100 million contract proposal. If you notice the numbers here, it will be around $20 million.

The theory is, though: If Alex Rodriguez can get $30 million, Pujols can get $40 million. Yes, he is THAT much better.

What happens from here will be a stain or a star on Mozeliak's record. He'll either be known as the man who locked up the most recognizable and most loved Cardinal since Stan "The Man" Musial, or the ignorant sap who let the iconic player leave.

Stay tuned.

Matthew, Mark, Lugo, and John

The divine prophets offer the biggest challenge. Well, I take that back. Lugo is bought and paid for (thank you Theo Epstein), so he isn't owed any money. I only added him to the section title because I love that saying.

Smoltz has had two really good starts (well, three if you count the start for Atlanta in 2006 that sealed the Cardinals' division title) for the Cardinals. He was signed with the intention to have him start to rebuild the arm strength, then move to the bullpen.

Plans can change. Go figure.

Kyle Lohse went back on the disabled list, Todd Wellemeyer...yeah, we'll leave that alone, and Smoltz needed to pitch longer. Not a problem.

Smoltz has been dominant, but against two bad teams. At this writing, he is getting set to face a team that can offer problems (opposing players), solutions (what he needs to do to be successful), and future visions (if he can start in the playoffs)—Milwaukee Brewers.

How he finishes the year could determine what he will do. He'll more than likely have to sign a similar contract to the one he signed with Boston over the offseason, but where?

The Cardinals are open to his return, and Adam Wainwright will do cartwheels throughout the clubhouse if he comes back. This one will unfold, and will be interesting, all the way to the dotted line.

Joel Pineiro, the third head on the current pitching beast (behind only Wainwright and Chris Carpenter), is in the walk-year of his contract.

Some fans, like myself, will be quick to remind those who want to re-sign Pineiro that the last time Pineiro found himself in the walk-year of his contract, he pitched well. He was re-signed, and 2008 ensued.

Let us also not forget about Lohse and his extension, but the jury is still out on that. Can't do much with fluke injuries, especially when they aren't to his arm or due to lack of effort or improper preparation.

Pineiro will walk. End of story. Mozeliak will not deviate from his rebuilding plan. Sure, he may have dealt off pieces of the future for a current win this season, but they came from positions of strength.

Shelby Miller is in the organization now and could move fast. Lance Lynn has quickly risen from future setup man to future number two starter. Adam Ottavino has learned to be a pitcher and not a belly itcher. Jaime Garcia is back from Tommy John surgery and is pitching well. Blake Hawksworth has emerged from bustville.

Pineiro and his future four-year contract are not needed.

Smoltz or another free agent pitcher will receive a one-year contract from St. Louis (or a trade from the sudden pitching surplus Atlanta) will ensue, and Pineiro will walk. Good news for the Cardinals.

Pineiro is already a Type-B free agent, and the only players in front of him on the list are done for the season, or are struggling. You can find the Elias Sports Rankings here.

DeRosa is another likely goner. He is right on the cusp of being a Type A free agent and will be one at the end of the season (Troy Glaus will continue to fall on the list, as will Luis Castillo). Take the extra draft picks in a deeper 2010 draft and be happy.

Why? Because as much as I liked Chris Perez and Jess Todd, DeRosa is replaceable. Sure, Brett Wallace isn't here anymore, but the Cardinals can take a slight downgrade on offense to play David Freese everyday.

Or, dare I say, Allen Craig?

DeRosa will cost far more than his current contract as he has gone from super-sub who played everyday, to an almost All-Star playing everyday. He will be a hot commodity this offseason, despite his Type A status.

Holliday is also probably a goner. I hate to say that, but it is true. When he came over to St. Louis, he was likely a three-year, $36 million player, even with Scott Boras as his agent.

Now, he is pushing a five year, $80 million contract figure. If he can stay hot in September and pulls off a strong postseason behind Pujols, Holliday will turn that into a Mark Teixeira-Esq contract figure (eight years, $160 million) and will greatly deserve it.

He is a Most Valuable Player (well, should have been had the writers not screwed him in 2007) and if he dominates in the 2009 postseason, he'll have "proven October basher" tattooed on his forehead. Far better than Teixeira.

And, an easier name to write.

Holliday is a Type A free agent, and while he should be Undesirable No. 2 this offseason, I think fans are kidding themselves thinking that he will return.

Sure, they can point out that Lohse took a big pay-cut to stay with the Cardinals and Boras is his agent, too, but people forget one thing. Lohse had just endured a horrible offseason in which he went from a four year, $40 million contract demand to a one-year, $5 million contract with the Cardinals.

His extension was just slightly below market value, and he wanted to stay to not only continue working with Carpenter, Wainwright, and Duncan, but also because he didn't want to endure yet another bad offseason. Would he want to endure that again? More than likely no, but like we learn in eighth grade health class "once is enough."

Holliday has never been a free agent, and is coming off a Manny-Esq revival. Oh, he is also 28 years old and will be the top fish in a shallow free agent pond.

Enjoy every second of Holliday, folks, as he is probably gone.

Payroll

What I am about to say will shock you. I talk about how Holliday is a goner because of money, DeRosa will want the money he deserves, and Pineiro will get the money he has earned.

The Cardinals have $40 million coming off the books for the offseason.

They have nine impending free agents. One is almost guaranteed to return (Jason LaRue), four are limbo (Holliday, DeRosa, Smoltz, Pineiro), and four are gone (Glaus, Khalil Greene, Wellemeyer, Rick Ankiel). With that much money coming off the books, all could re-sign.

Ankiel, Greene, Glaus, and Wellemeyer are gone, as I just said. Greene and his "anxeity" problems have become a huge problem, and he will leave, especially with Brendan Ryan's emergence.

Glaus will try to land a contract for next season by playing this September and in the playoffs (book that, by the way; someone needs to be the designated hitter in the World Series). He won't return, even if DeRosa walks.

Wellemeyer has little to no use in the 2010 Cardinals season. He can go elsewhere and try to latch on as a set-up man with his power fastball, or a backend starter. St. Louis is not an option.

Ankiel is the sore mark. He has been loved in St. Louis since 2000. People still wondered and hoped when he was making his comeback as a hitter. He has proven that he can play an above-average centerfield. And he has that pitcher's arm.

He won't return to the Cardinals. Colby Rasmus has upset him in centerfield, and the minor league system is deep in outfielders. He'll have to take a very big paycut, or possibly a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training with another team, but it will be worth it.

Some fans believe that you come to St. Louis to revive your career. While I too believe this to be true (and has been proven more than Rod Blagojevich's illegal activities), I am of the few and far between that believe you can do the reverse: leave St. Louis and revive your career.

Of course, that theory only goes to a select few, as you can always revive yourself anywhere. What I mean, is that when you have been in St. Louis so long and so much is expected of you, leaving can be the best thing for you.

Ankiel falls in this category (as does/did Chris Duncan). He has been in this organization for a long time. He has been looked to, looked up to, and looked down upon. He has risen, fallen, risen, and falling. He needs to leave, change his scenery, and hope for the best.

And believe me when I say this: The entire organization and fanbase will wish him the best. He needs to leave. Not for the good of the organization, but for the good of himself.

The Cardinals will have 27 players (from the 40-man roster) under contract or team control for 2010. What they do from there will be minimal.

Holliday and DeRosa play two positions: left field and third base. Every other starting nine spot will be filled.

There will be two open rotation spots, one of which will be filled from within (one of Garcia, Ottavino, Lynn, Hawksworth, Mitch Boggs, Kyle McClellan).

The bullpen is locked down, with Ryan Franklin, Dennys Reyes, and Trever Miller under contract. The other spots can easily be filled from within.

There are really only two questions marks, though one has a few sub-marks:

How will the Cardinals fill the third base and left field holes?
What will become of Brad Thompson?

The Cardinals can fill third base or left field with one player: Craig. If he is sent to winter ball (as I hope will happen) as a third baseman, that will solve one question.

He was drafted as a third baseman, but moved to left field, right field, and first base because of some butchering at the hot corner. Working with Oquendo could solve some of those problems, but he could fill either hole.

If Craig takes left field (assuming Holliday and DeRosa walk), David Freese will probably take the hot corner job. The Cardinals don't have any other solid options in the high minors to take the third base job. Freese and Craig are the only options.

For the outfield, they have plenty of options. A left-field platoon of Shane Robinson and Jon Jay could be attractive, or replace Robinson with Nick Stavinoha. Joe Mather is back from wrist surgery. Daryl Jones is going to the Arizona Fall League to make up for play time and is talented enough to skip Triple A.

Mark Shorey (Memphis) and Tyler Henley (Springfield) could be dark horses for a job.

Holliday and DeRosa's production may not be fully replaced (nor would their presence), but with improvements in production that will likely come from Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick, that would help.

Thompson is going to be the real story. He is arbitration eligible for a second time. He is a free agent following 2011, and can be a back-of-the-rotation starter, or a long relief arm out of the bullpen.

For the Cardinals, he is not needed.

He is out of options, which means he would have to clear waivers to be sent to Memphis. He is a non-tender candidate, and will likely make more than $1 million in arbitration. He is certainly not worth that, at least not to the Cardinals.

What the Cardinals do with Thompson will be interesting. Stay tuned for that solution.

This coming offseason will be the one that makes or breaks John Mozeliak as a true general manager, or a puppet for the ownership group. I speak for Cardinals Nation when I say that I hope he is a true general manager.

I guess we shall see.

Dear Drayton McLane: Blow Up the Houston Astros

Joel Koch — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 22:40:22 -0400

Being a St. Louis Cardinals fan, I can tell you the most enjoyable thing is to watch your division rivals falter. This, however, is not true when it comes to the Houston Astros.

Why? To be honest, I don't really know.

Something about the Astros makes me like them a little bit, but something has to change with them. They have dead money on the payroll, useless players earning a hefty pay, and a general manager that wouldn't know how to get out of a maze with signs at every corner saying "This Way."

Drayton McLane: it is time to blow it up.

If you need reasoning, then here you go:

Keith Law ranked the Astros 30th out of 30 teams in his organizational rankings for 2009 (ESPN Insider required).

Jason Castro, a very mediocre prospect, was their top prospect in their system, after being drafted in 2008.

Yes, Drayton, it is time to blow this team up, but how to start?

Fire Ed Wade. Hire Mike Arbuckle.

Arbuckle, who just joined the Kansas City front office in November of last year, is the man responsible for the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies World Series title. He found Ryan Howard and company. He needs to be brought in, and now.

Next move? Hire Marti Wolever from the Philadelphia Phillies to be your Assistant General Manager. Wolever has run the Phillies drafts since 2002, and just to name a few of his picks: Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ.

These two have worked together before, and not only would make good front office chemistry, but also know how to make a winning franchise.

Time to revamp the Major League team.

You have Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt under contract for 2010. You are not going to make a run then, so as the saying goes, "Why win 70 games with them, when you can capitalize on a return and win 66 without them?"

This is where it can get very tricky. You have to take the best deal available (and for these three, there will be a long list involved), but you have to support the receiving team.

My proposal would be to take advantage of the Boston Red Sox. They could have an inking to take Berkman and Oswalt, and they have a superb system. Maybe the cross state rival Rangers would like a new ace for the young staff and will part with top talent from their top system for him?

There is always a price for a player, just sometimes it can be insane. In this case, a sane price with a gimmick can land you a haul.

What's the gimmick? "Sure, we'll throw in some money to even out the deal, as long as we get nicely compensated for that money."

That line right there will get you farther than the Roy Halladay trade talks, or even land you a better haul than the Indians got for Cliff Lee AND CC Sabathia, combined.

The other thing to remember is to never eliminate division rivals off the list. The price will be bigger for them, but they know what they would be getting because of how many times they see your team.

Let us also not forget the current free agent crop from the Astros themselves. They have two type-A free agents (Miguel Tejada and Jose Valderda) and one type-B (LaTroy Hawkins) hitting the open market. None should return.

The Astros need to take advantage of this and offer all three arbitration and wave goodbye. Valverde WILL find a job, even as a type-A, and Hawkins will as a type-B (no lost draft picks for the signing team).

If Tejada moves from shortstop to third base for a team, he will find work as well.

That is two first round draft picks and three sandwich picks. For a team with a horrible farm system, that is some good eats. Add that with the trades of Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee, the Astros could be looking at six first round picks, and nine sandwich picks (turning the prospects in return for the Oswalt/Berkman/Lee into draft picks to make the visual a little easier).

That right there would be an amazing haul for the Astros.

If you factor in that kind of impact on the system, added in with some role player type signings (Geoff Blum would be good to bring back) and comeback type players to fill up the roster with, this team would be very well off.

What I meant with the above is that the Astros have Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Kaz Matsui (unless they can convince a team to take him off their hands, which I would surely hope they can do) on the roster if I were running the team. Everyone else would be gone either via trade, or not resigning. Arbitration eligible players would also be dealt off if at all possible.

Why? The Astros have to capitalize on a weak free agent market and a bad economy. If they can offer their arbitration players to teams, they may be able to land a mid-level prospect in return. That's how you start restocking your system.

You can't add star players at every turn. Every team has its core, plus the supporting cast. The supporting cast-type players are the mid-level prospects, and by adding plenty of these to the system, the Astros can possibly stave off complete abyss in 2010 and 2011.

Bring in the mid-level prospects, let them work themselves up, and introduce each to the majors slowly, but surely. By 2013 or 2014, this team's farm system could be ranked in the top 10, and their team competing once again.

The solution is simple: blow this franchise up, from top to bottom. Improve the farm system, improve the Major League roster, and improve the front office.

A losing 2010 season is coming with a blow up or without, so why not capitalize on a weak free agent pool this coming off-season with a great pitcher (Oswalt), a great teammate and leader (Berkman), and a good power threat (Lee) to re-stock the system?

There really is no reason not to.

Analyzing Two Possible Roy Halladay Trade Scenarios

Joel Koch — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 00:00:31 -0400

Roy Halladay is officially on the trade market. Finally.

Now, it is a race to get by far the best pitcher in baseball today (sorry, but he's always been better than Johan Santana).

You already know that I want the St. Louis Cardinals to land Halladay. Here are a few reasons why:

Chris Carpenter and Halladay came up as part of the Toronto Big Three (with Kelvim Escobar), and are still good friends to this day.
Halladay would fall in love with Dave Duncan, and Duncan would fall head over heels in love with Halladay. Sinking fastball galore.

The only issue is that pesky second player—no, not on the Cardinals side, but on the Toronto Blue Jays side. The rumor is that the Blue Jays want to package Vernon Wells with Halladay.

This says to me that the Blue Jays are either not serious about moving Halladay and want to scare people off with the Wells talk, or that they really want to rebuild. I'd say both could be true, but the first more so than the latter.

Before we go on, let me mention that I have heard this rumor is not true. Some writer in Toronto or New England mentioned that if they could move Wells too, it would be great for the Blue Jays. Some writer read this and tried putting two and two together, but ended up with five.

Yeah, so let's consider that the Blue Jays want to package one of their remaining large contracts (Wells, Scott Rolen, Alex Rios) with Halladay, and not just Wells.

With me? Okay, let's keep moving.

If I were John Mozeliak, I would propose the following two trades.

After saying the deals, I would tell J.P. Ricciardi (General Manager of the Blue Jays) that he has to take one or the other, and I am not mixing the deals together.

Deal numero uno:

Brett Wallace, Pete Kozma, Casey Mulligan, P.J. Walters, Mitchell Boggs, Charles Cutler, Brad Thompson for Halladay.

Deal number two:

Pete Kozma, Adam Reifer, Clayton Mortenson, Allen Craig, Brad Thompson, Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan for Halladay and Rios.

Now, if I were Ricciardi, I would be completely torn between these two deals. Why? Well, read on, wayward son.

Wallace is one of the top prospects in baseball, and while he may not stick at third base (though I am in the group of people that believe he can be an average defender, especially with Albert Pujols across the diamond) long term, his bat will produce plenty of runs.

Kozma and Wallace were on the Blue Jays' radar in the 2007 (Kozma) and 2008 (Wallace) drafts. Kozma is a slick defender, but will not carry a big stick.

Mulligan is yet another converted catcher and will be a more than quality Major League setup man.

Cutler is a hard hitting catcher who might be better served at designated hitter or first base, but can stick at catcher. He carries a nice big bat.

He'll be 23 here shortly and is currently raking in the low minors, but he could easily be a September call-up in 2010, and start in 2011.

Walters and Boggs keep getting cups of coffee, but can't stick with the big league club. The pitching depth has them stuck at Memphis, but they will be quality Major League arms.

Reifer has future closer written all over him. He needs better command, but can sure bring the heat.

Mortenson will never be a No. 1 starter, but he could be a No. 2 or 3, easily. His sinker is nasty, and when it is going well, he could be a smaller version of Brandon Webb.

Craig can play the corner outfield and the corner infield, though neither spots extremely well. He is more of a 1B/DH, but he sure can rake. He's struggled at Triple A this year, but he's getting that stroke back.

A breakdown of the deals are the following:

For Halladay, we will trade the farm. We'll give you our top prospect, plus four above-average prospects for Halladay. Thompson is a throw-in to make room for Halladay and to keep Toronto stocked with pitching options.

Add in Rios, but we will not deal our top prospect. That is too much money to take on, and that would hurt us.

In his place, we'll give you four above-average prospects, plus three throw-ins to make room for Halladay and Rios. Ankiel is a free agent to be, and Duncan could platoon at the DH role.

Thompson—well, gotta keep the pitching stocked.

This is why I would be torn if I were Ricciardi. I could deal off the best pitcher in the majors to a team outside of my division (and league) and land myself one of the best prospects in baseball, including four prospects that would be nice adds to my system.

Or, I could deal off the best pitcher and one of my remaining large contracts for four prospects that would be better than the four I'd get with Wallace (with only Kozma as the constant in both deals). But I'd get three players that could rebound, or I could cut later on.

In all honesty, I do not know which deal I would take. While the Wallace deal looks far better in the return, the Halladay/Rios deal looks better on the books.

As a Cardinals fan, I would prefer deal two. Wallace would be a great compliment to Pujols in the lineup, and Rios would create a more athletic outfield (Ryan Ludwick would move to left field) and give off a 2004-like outfield presence.

Which deal would you take? Deal one, deal two, or deal none? Let’s hear some discussion!

St. Louis Cardinals Notebook: After Mark DeRosa, Try These Trade-Deadline Moves

Joel Koch — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 21:24:52 -0400

Mark DeRosa was a good start for John Mozeliak, but he still has work to do if he wants to make this a championship club.

There are too many struggling pieces to believe that one player will make the difference.

Many fans will be saying that if the team does not get Matt Holliday, then the Cardinals are not serious about winning.

So wrong.

Matt Holliday's time in Oakland has proved that he is in fact a Coors Kid.

He will still get that ridiculous contract, but he does not need to be in St. Louis.

Who does? So glad you asked.

Josh Willingham.

Stop laughing, please. There is logic here.

Sure, Willingham has had his share of back problems over the years, but look beyond that. Think big picture: free agent eligible after 2011, not 2009.

Yes, those extra two years are important.

Willingham will have had just over four years of service time at the end of 2009. He can play catcher, first base, and both corner outfield positions.

Holliday can play left field and will—not could—be a free agent after 2009.

Oh, did I mention that there is slightly more than $10 million difference between their contracts this year? Yeah, this will be very important for later on.

Willingham, in three seasons with the Marlins, was a bigger bat in their lineup.

In three full seasons (well, two full and one injury-plagued), Willingham had the following totals and averages: 394 games (131 per season), 1374 at-bats (458 per), 191 runs (64 per), 366 hits (122 per; .266 batting average), 62 home runs (21 per), 214 runs batted in (71 per).

Not amazing numbers, but very solid and very consistent.

Oh, did I mention that a .356 on-base percentage was the lowest he had in three seasons in Miami?

Willingham currently holds a .399 OBP in Washington.

Yeah, that's true protection: a guy who gets on base.

So, enough with the overflowing numbers and statistics. It is time for the trade. Very easy, very simple: Chris Duncan, Blake Hawksworth and Casey Mulligan for Willingham.

Considering the Nationals' pitching woes, Hawksworth would make a fine addition to their bullpen or rotation.

Mulligan is a few years off, but will figure into the Nationals' long-term bullpen.

Duncan, well, that is a throw-in from the Cardinals to replace Willingham's power and give them another outfield and first base option.

Remember how I said that $10 million difference in salary between Holliday and Willingham would be important?

Well, here is why.

Reason No. 1 is the fact that Willingham would take fewer players and would be under club control through 2011 (not to mention not trading Brett Wallace).

Reason No. 2 is that the deal for Willingham would leave open enough payroll space to add Doug Davis from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Davis is a pending free agent, but he has always been a consistent starting pitcher. He also throws with an arm that hasn't been seen in the Cardinals rotation since 2005: that pesky left arm.

Sure, Davis is 3-8, but his earned run average is 3.28. That says that he receives little to no run support in his starts.

The deal for Davis is a very simple one.

The Diamondbacks are without their left fielders (Conor Jackson and Eric Byrnes) and Chris Young is struggling this season. That makes this deal perfect for the Diamondbacks: Rick Ankiel, Adam Reifer, and Jon Jay for Doug Davis.

Ankiel can play in center field for the Diamondbacks and would be a serviceable bat. A change of scenery could do him wonders.

Have him get out of St. Louis, where he has always been looked upon to be the man, and go somewhere else and regroup.

He, like Davis, is a free agent after 2009.

Reifer is a power righthander and will figure into Arizona's long-term bullpen. It'll be a couple of years before he arrives, but he will be worth the wait.

Jay has found himself falling back on the depth chart, despite impressing in Spring Training. He has scuffled this year in Memphis, but has started to turn it around in late May and June.

He can play all three outfield positions extremely well, and will be a Major League lead-off hitter.

With these two trades, the Cardinals fill some major needs. Here would be the updated lineup for the Cardinals:

2B—Skip Schumaker (Brendan Ryan at SS when the opposing starter is left handed)
RF—Ryan Ludwick
1B—Albert Pujols
LF—Josh Willingham
3B–Mark DeRosa
CF-Colby Rasmus
C—Yadier Molina
Pitcher
SS—Brendan Ryan (Skip Schumaker at 2B when the opposing starter is left handed)

That lineup will not strike fear into pitchers, but the depth of quality hitters after Pujols will create the protection. With Ludwick hitting in front of Pujols, he will start to see better pitches and will heat up, making this lineup very strong.

That is what a championship batting lineup looks like.

You may be wondering a few things: What happens in the rotation? Or, what happens to Troy Glaus?

Well, here are the answers to those questions.

In the rotation, Todd Wellemeyer would be disabled. His lack of control, his inability to repeat his delivery, and his loss of velocity screams arm and/or shoulder problems. He should be disabled with the arrival of Davis and be thoroughly checked out.

This would create a rotation of Davis, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, Chris Carpenter, and Kyle Lohse. That is very deep and strong, while looking far better on paper than the current rotation with Wellemeyer in the starting five.

As for Glaus, he is ready to start a rehab, assuming that he starts at designated hitter or first base. He will more than likely not be able to play third base this season. He would be very valuable to plenty of clubs, but one in particular stands out above the rest.

The San Francisco Giants.

The Giants are surprising contenders in the National League West and really need a true thumper. Glaus would fill two needs.

He would be the big bat the Giants need, and he could play first base full time. This would push Pablo Sandoval back to third base, which is better for the Giants.

In return, the Giants would send Clayton Tanner to the Cardinals. Tanner has pitched well in the Giants system, and he is left handed—something the Cardinals system needs.

Here is the complicated part for this deal.

Glaus would have to be activated from the Cardinals 60 Day Disabled List, traded to the Giants, then placed on the 15 Day Disabled List for the Giants.

Along with Glaus, the Cardinals would send $4 million to the Giants (see why that $10 million difference between Holliday and Willingham is important?) so that the Giants would only have to pay roughly $2 million for Glaus.

A few added bonuses for your enjoyment: Julio Lugo.

The Boston Red Sox are supposedly ready to release Lugo whenever Jed Lowrie is ready to return.

At a pro-rated Major League minimum, Lugo would be a great add.

Lugo has experience at shortstop, third base, second base, and the corner outfield positions. That's the kind of versatility Tony LaRussa enjoys.

If added, Lugo would play a bench role for the Cardinals.

The new bench would look something like this: Jason LaRue, Julio Lugo, Joe Thurston, Tyler Greene, and Khalil Greene.

Speaking of Khalil Greene, consider this the end of his line in St. Louis. Greene has supposedly had a relapse in his anxiety disorder.

It is time to write a book on this acquisition. Greene needs to be dealt off as a backup infielder (he can officially play third base, shortstop, and could easily play second base) or be released.

There is no middle ground. Eat a vast majority of his salary and try to get something for him in a trade, or eat all of his salary and release him.

It cost Luke Gregerson and an injured Mark Worrell. Not like we traded the farm for him.

I know it was a lot to intake, but I hope you still enjoyed it. The Cardinals are not done dealing (said by Mozeliak; go figure).

They did not say when the next deal might occur or who it could be, but if Mozeliak is smart, he will make these moves.

All of these moves make sense for both the current and future state of the club. They remove logjams in the Minor Leagues and at the Major League level.

This also helps put a championship caliber club out on the field every night.

What will happen obviously remains to be seen, but put me down on the list that hopes everything written here happens.

St. Louis Cardinals Need to Prove a Point with Shelby Miller

Joel Koch — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 00:20:23 -0400

The St. Louis Cardinals surprised many fans by drafting hard-throwing right-hander Shelby Miller out of Brownwood High School in Texas with their 19th pick.

Surprised, but not disappointed.

Miller's selection shows that the Cardinals are willing to go over slot for a future front of the rotation and that they are willing to draft high school arms in the first round. That is something they haven't done since 1991.

The Cardinals need to show their fanbase that they are willing to spend money. And to do that, they have to sign Miller—and soon.

If I were Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, I would send a proposal to Miller's representative with "$3.5 million" written on the paper. Under that number, I would have "$1 million" written out, followed by "two years."

Why? Miller is a special kind of talent, and this is what it would take. The Cardinals need to give him $3.5 million up front, with $1 million paid to Miller over the next two years ($500,000 paid out over 12 months).

Not only will this show that the Cardinals are willing to spend on premier talent, but also that they are committed to developing Miller into that future front-end arm as soon as possible.

The tricky part is what happens after Miller signs. He just graduated high school and is only 18. He threw 70-plus innings for Brownwood this season, and with his future being very bright, the Cardinals have to monitor his innings.

How? They need to convert him to a reliever just for this season. Allow him to pitch out of the bullpen, put up 30 to 40 innings and see how he fares.

As a reliever, he could easily climb the organizational ladder and pitch at Double-A Springfield or Triple-A Memphis. He could even make a September cameo appearance and pitch a few innings in blowout games.

The key to making him a reliever would be to see where he begins 2010. If he stays at Low-A Quad Cities (which is where he should be started), let him begin there next season as a starter.

If he makes it to Springfield, start him at Springfield. If he gets to Memphis or St. Louis, start him in Memphis. Very simple, very easy.

Miller represents the breaking point. If he does not sign, the Cardinals give off the indication that they are cheap and only go with low-budget players and low-budget draft picks. They have no desire to bring in game-changing players to the organization and are okay with being mediocre.

If they do sign him, they show that they are willing to spend money on amateur talent and professional talent. They also show that they know who the future starters are and want to bring them in and develop them.

Shelby Miller is the key, and the Cardinals future rides on him. A signed Miller means a happy fan base and continued to success. An unsigned Miller—unless he changes course and decides to attend college instead of going pro—means that fans may easily start bailing on the Cardinals.

Which will Mozeliak and Company choose? Only time will tell. Check back often between now and August 17th.

Ninteenth Overall

Joel Koch — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 01:20:31 -0400

Tuesday June 9 is a day that many fans are waiting for. Why is this day significant? It is the Major League Baseball First—Year Player Draft!

Many players are drafted, some don't sign. Others sign for big money, I mean a great deal of money if you are Stephen Strasburg.

As for the St. Louis Cardinals, who pick 19th overall in this year's draft, there have been many different names attached to their first overall pick. Enter me, who will try to shed some light on who the Cardinals will take.

The Cardinals have been linked with four players, two pitchers and two batters. Neither are set for the 19th pick, but we'll get to that later.

Rex Brothers - LHP Lipscomb University

This is the man the Cardinals really want. The organization wants to draft for best available, while trying to land need as well. Brothers is part of the need as he is a left handed starting pitcher. This is what the Cardinals want.

Brothers tops out at 95 miles per hour and has a Major League ready slider, but he needs work on his changeup. While he will get better, it is unknown if his feel for pitching or command and control will improve.

Brothers is a college pitcher, and while college pitching is safer than high school pitching, Brothers still looks to be an unsafe bet with very large upside.

Mike Minor - LHP Vanderbilt University

Minor, unlike Brothers, is a safe bet. He will be a high flyer through the system and will grade out as a very good number three Major League pitcher, maybe a decent number two.

Minor has great control and command, and a very good feel for pitching. All of his pitches are average or slightly better than average (fastball tops out at 92 mph) and should get to the above—average level.

Minor is a safe bet and, if signed within a month after being draft, could be at Double A in any system by the end of the season and Triple A by the end of 2010.

Grant Green - INF University of Southern California

Green is a shortstop by trade and should stay at shortstop throughout his professional career. He has a very strong arm with good range. He has a feel for hitting, though not with much power (10 home run potential at most).

Randal Grichuk - OF Lamar Consolidated High School (TX)

Grichuk is a left fielder, though he could play right field. He doesn't have the speed to play centerfield, but has a decent arm. He profiles to be below average on the defensive side of the ball, slightly better than Chris Duncan.

The upside? He can knock the stuffing out of the ball with a wooden bat. He will hit for a high number of home runs and still hit over .300. He'll likely be strikeout prone, but those 40+ home runs should make you overlook that.

So those are the four names linked with the Cardinals. Why have there been so many different names liked to the Cardinals? Well, pretty much because the baseball draft is harder to pinpoint players to a team.

Brothers has been picked to go to the Cardinals and the Florida Marlins (pick 18) by Keith Law from ESPN. Jonathon Mayo from MLB.com has the Colorado Rockies taking Brothers at 11.

Law has Minor going to the Cardinals (when he has Brothers going to Marlins) and then going to the Blue Jays in his second mock draft, but that is the mock draft he has Brothers going to the Cardinals. Mayo has Minor going number three overall to the San Diego Padres

In Mayo's mock draft, he has the Cardinals taking Green at 19.

Grichuk is going to be the wild card for the Cardinals. If Mayo and Law have their picks combined (Minor going to the Padres at three, Brothers to the Rockies at 11 or Marlins at 18, and Green to the Cincinnati Reds at 8 or Kansas City Royals at 12), the Cardinals could very well take Grichuk at 19.

Grichuk is not a first round talent, not by a long-shot, but he is a second round talent and that is the problem. The Cardinals do not pick again until the second round at 67 overall, which makes Grichuk very appealing at 19. He may not fall to the Cardinals in the second round.

The other option if Minor, Brothers, and Green go ahead of the Cardinals first pick, they could take Matthew Purke (LHP out of Klein High School) who will fall out of the top 10 due to bonus demands (he wants close to a $4 million signing bonus and another $4 million in guaranteed money on a Major League contract).

If Purke continues to slide in the draft, the Cardinals may take the chance and sign him. Most experts say that he could be as good as Rick Porcello of the Tigers, which is who he wants to frame his contract after. The Cardinals will not pass on that kind of talent again (they passed on Porcello in 2007 in favor of Pete Kozma).

So on draft day, which is officially less than 41 hours away, watch for the Cardinals to take their best first round pick (yes, better than Colby Rasmus and Brett Wallace) of this decade. It may be another shortstop, or it could be a left handed starting pitcher (which is most likely). It could even be an outfielder, the wild card of the draft.

Watch the draft on MLB Network at 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

St. Louis Cardinals: What They Need To Reach the Top

Joel Koch — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 16:10:52 -0400

The St. Louis Cardinals are not scuffling, but they aren't red hot either.

The Cardinals have two big holes to fill sooner rather than later, and by "later" I mean the July 31st trade deadline.

The first hole that needs to be filled is a third head to the mighty pitching dragon.

Chris Carpenter is an ace—he bleeds dominance. Adam Wainwright is in that same class as well, when he is right. The only downside is that both have their problems—more so Carpenter than Wainwright.

How to fix this? Erik Bedard. There's a downside and upside on Bedard, but we'll start with the upside.

Bedard is left-handed—something the Cardinals have missed for several years—and has a very good fastball. His curveball hasn't been as good since his surgery last year, but his change-up is decent.

The upside is that in St. Louis, he would be working with Dave Duncan, which would greatly help Bedard with his post-surgery mechanics.

The downside to Bedard is that he's started more than 30 games only once in his career, and he didn't throw 200 innings in that year (196). He is also on pace for slightly more than 160 innings this season (averaging five innings per start).

The upside on the downside? Duncan again. He is a master of reinventing pitchers (take Joel Pineiro, for example), and could help Bedard with his mechanics while improving that innings average. He can also give Bedard a better change-up.

In other words, Duncan can make Bedard worth that large free agent contract he will receive.

The second player the Cardinals need is Adrian Beltre, also a Seattle Mariner.

I know what you're thinking because I thought the same thing when I heard his name— Beltre hasn't been any good since he had that breakout 2004 campaign.

You have a valid point, but that is before we look inside the numbers. If you take out that 2004 breakout year, Beltre has never hit over .300, hit more than 26 home runs, drove in more than 99 runs, or scored more than 88 runs.

Not the bat you would be looking for to protect Albert Pujols, but we need to dive deeper in his stats, and that means all of them.

First off, let us look at his fielding stats.

Using FanGraphs as my guide, Beltre has been a good fielding third baseman. He is tied for fourth among Major League third basemen this season with Joe Crede and Ryan Zimmerman for range factor per nine innings with a 3.0.

He ranks sixth among MLB third basemen in expected outs with 90 (Andy LaRoche leads with 101), leads with a 1.3 in double play runs, leads with 9.6 in range runs, leads with a 9.3 ultimate zone rating, and is second behind Crede (33.5) in ultimate zone rating per 150 games with a 24.3.

In other words, Beltre is pretty good with the glove at the hot corner.

Now, for his offensive inside numbers.

Beltre is hitting .232/.265/.330 (AVG/OBP/SLG) on the season with just three home runs and 21 RBI. At first glance, those numbers are horrible. But after taking a look at some different factors, those numbers don't seem so bad.

First and foremost, the Mariners suck. There really is no better word for it. When your team is awful, you lose motivation. You hate to use it as an excuse (especially in the walk year of your contract), but it's true. Beltre is struggling because his team is bad.

Another reason why his numbers are so bad is that he can't seem to hit at Safeco Field. The pitcher's park is killing Beltre. He is hitting a very pedestrian .149 at Safeco, with an even worse .407 OPS.

He has only one home run and eight RBI at home. On the road, he is hitting .303/.333/.422 with two home runs, 13 RBI, seven doubles, and 15 runs scored—all of this in just four more games and 15 more at-bats.

For his first four years in Seattle, Beltre has had very interesting home/road splits. At home, he averages a .255 batting average over almost 75 games with a line of .311/.419/.730.

He also averages 38 runs, 13 doubles, 11 home runs, and 39 RBI per season at home.

On the road? Not surprisingly, Beltre fares much better, with a .277 batting average over 76 games, with a line of .327/.488/.815. Also included are his averages of 42 runs, 23 doubles, 13 home runs, and 49 RBI on the road.

If you are interested in his average numbers in his first four seasons with the Mariners, they are as follows: .266 (158/593.5) batting average, .319/.453/.772, 80 runs, 36 doubles, 24 home runs, and 88 RBI.

Have I changed your mind yet? Beltre is one of the better fielders at the hot corner and is a good hitter away from the nightmare known as Safeco Field.

His average numbers with the Mariners are also good looking, good enough to make pitchers think twice about walking Pujols.

In other words, Beltre would make the Cardinals' lineup that much deeper and give Pujols better protection.

Knowing the players the Cardinals need, it's time for the deal. This deal will be difficult for several reasons:

Beltre has a limited no-trade clause and the only known teams on the list are the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
The Mariners traded a lot of good players for Bedard and are looking for a good package in return.
Beltre is in the walk-year of his contract, and is owed more than $9 million for the rest of the season.

So, how do we arrange the deal to make the Mariners happy? Easy. We'll break this into two deals so that you can see how I view Beltre and Bedard in a trade.

For Beltre, the Cardinals would trade Chris Duncan and Brad Thompson.

For Bedard, the Cardinals would trade Casey Mulligan, Charles Cutler, Adam Reifer, Pete Kozma, and Mitchell Boggs.

Beltre, while a good fielder and a better hitter away from Seattle, is not worth top prospects or good players still well under club control.

Duncan would benefit from a change of scenery and would provide more pop from left field. He could also serve as a designated hitter.

Thompson could fill a rotation spot for Seattle, or work out of the bullpen.

The Bedard deal is a different story. While he is about to become a free agent, he is still worth a large package, but not made up of many top prospects.

The reasoning behind that is he has not proved durable, has never pitched in the postseason (or in a pennant race for that matter), and is less than a year removed from shoulder surgery.

He is, however, worth a large package of good players. He is left-handed, can be very dominant, and could be a Type A free agent going into the offseason. And if he can continue to pitch as he is, he will sign a large free agent contract and teams would be scared off by the Type-A status.

Mulligan is a converted catcher and pitched well at low Single-A Quad Cities. He has been hit hard at high Single-A Palm Beach, but is still talented as a pitcher. He doesn't throw as hard as Jason Motte, but he has better off-speed stuff and has more movement on his 90-92 mph fastball.

Reifer is a Major League closer in the making who has decent off-speed stuff with a good fastball. Opponents have hit him well this year, but he will turn it around. He could be up as soon as next season, and he'll be very good.

Cutler is a designated hitter in the making, but can serve as a catcher. He has a nice stroke and is mashing the ball at Quad Cities. If moved along a nice rate, he could be up in late 2011 or early 2012 and serve as a left-handed power source for the Mariners.

Kozma isn't exactly an "all glove, no stick" shortstop. He is very baseball smart and could end up hitting over .270 at the Major League level, but he'll never be a home run threat. He is very solid with the glove and is currently at Double-A Springfield.

At his current pace of movement up the organizational ladder, Kozma could be a 2010 September call-up.

And finally, Boggs. He pitched decently for the Cardinals last season when he was in town. He worked hard in the offseason and during spring training and fared very well this season. His walks were a little high, but that is mostly because hitters lay off of his curveball on two-strike counts and he ends up picking up a lot of balls.

Boggs's change-up is decent and his fastball is good. When he learns how to pitch instead of throw, he will be a No. 3 starter. He could fill a rotation job this season if needed.

St. Louis needs Beltre and Bedard. With those two guys, the Cardinals are legit contenders for the National League Central, if not the favorites.

Without them, they are a contending team that would still need breaks to go their way and for other teams to scuffle more than them.

What do you think?

What Major League Baseball Should Do

Joel Koch — Wed, 27 May 2009 14:57:12 -0400

Interleague Play use to be a marvel to be seen. Now it is stale and old. No one wants to see that anymore, and Major League baseball needs to fix it.

How? Well, it is a complicated matter.

First, each team should play their natural rivals (e.g. St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals, or Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox) once a season, but rotate home field between the two teams each season. Then, throw in a second series against a team from the other league that is not the natural rival.

That is two series, one the same and the other different. That will keep Interleague Play from getting stale and playing the same teams over and over (like the Cardinals and the Detroit Tigers).

Have you noticed the problem this creates?

There are 16 teams in the National League, and only 14 in the American League. With my proposition, this would still make two NL teams play against each other while Interleague Play is happening.

Solution: Add two Major League teams to the AL.

Problem solved.

Many fans have clamored for Las Vegas to have a Major League Baseball team, and Oklahoma City has started to pop up on the scene with the addition of the Oklahoma City Thunder (National Basketball Association). Place two new teams in these two cities, and the problem is solved.

The Vegas team, which we shall call the Bidders, would be placed in the AL West. The Bidders would give the AL West five teams, the same as the NL West. Remember that the NL and AL East each have five teams, the only division with an equal amount.

The Oklahoma City team, hereby named the Dustbowls, would be placed in the AL Central, which would be that division's sixth team (even with the NL Central).

Adding these two teams would give each league 16 teams.

Now for the scheduling of the leagues.

With only two Interleague series (both would be three game sets), each team is given 12 more games to play against their own league.

The new scheduling would mean that the Central Division teams would play 18 games apiece against their division rivals (90 games), seven games apiece against six teams from the other two divisions (42 games), six games against the remaining four teams (24 games), and six games against two teams from the other league (six games).

For the teams in the five team divisions, they would play 20 games apiece against their division opponents (80 games), seven games apiece against 10 teams from the other two divisions (70 games), six games against the remaining team (six games), and six games against two teams from the other league (six games).

With the additional teams, the AL can play the exact same schedule as the NL and give each league a balanced look at their league. Sure, the Central Division teams would face their division more than the other divisions, but that is the price you pay to have one more team in your division.

The Bidders and Dustbowls, two new teams to Major League Baseball. These two teams balance Interleague Play and the actual 162-game schedule. Who would have thought that adding two new teams to the league would actually make life easier?

What do you think about adding two more teams?

Oh, in case you were wondering, the natural rival list would look like this:

Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox
New York Mets vs. New York Mets
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Florida Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Oklahoma City Dustbowls (unnatural rivalry)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics
San Diego Padres vs. Detroit Tigers (unnatural rivalry)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners (unnatural rivalry)
Colorado Rockies vs. Las Vegas Bidders

Brett Wallace: Why Wait?

Joel Koch — Mon, 25 May 2009 16:31:51 -0400

Brett Wallace, the 13th overall pick in the 2008 First Year Player Draft, is already at Triple-A Memphis. For being a 2008 draft pick, being at Triple-A (or even Double-A for that matter) is unbelievable. Off the top of my head, I can think of only Andrew Miller and Ryan Zimmerman that made it that far in a shorter amount of time.

Troy Glaus is out with a shoulder issue and his return date is up in the air. He has an appointment in the first week of June to see if he can start baseball related activities, which would determine his return date. Even if it is good news, Glaus is out until August. He will have to go on a rehabilitation assignment and spend the entire 30 days on assignment.

Brian Barden and Joe Thurston got off to hot starts in April, showing that the St. Louis Cardinals could cope without Glaus for sometime. Barden was named the Rookie of the Month for April, but both have come crashing back down to earth in May.

It is time for a change.

Since June is right around the corner, any player brought up from the Minor Leagues, and stays up for the remainder of his career, will have one extra year of arbitration eligibility. They also cannot become a Super-Two (which is when they are eligible for arbitration four times instead of normal three) player.

This is great news for the suddenly cost-conscious Cardinals. If Wallace would make his Major League debut after June 5, he cannot become a Super-Two player, so he won't be arbitration eligible until the end of 2012, and he will not be Free Agent eligible until the end of 2015.

Knowing this, you have to wonder why Wallace is not being considered for a promotion. He has torn up Pacific Coast League pitching with a batting line of .353/.378/.471 (AVG/OBP/SLG) and has a home run in his first eight games. Let us not forget that the "guy who doesn't play third base well" has only three errors in 40 games.

So why are the Cardinals waiting? The tandem of Barden and Thurston will not produce at their April rate, and this team needs a huge shot in the arm. The best way to fix the third base production and to give the team a big lift is to call-up your second top prospect.

That isn't the only move, however. You have to lift your team in more ways than that, and here is what the Cardinals need to do when June rolls around:

First and foremost, call-up Wallace from Memphis to be the everyday starter at third base. This forces Barden and Thurston into utility roles, which is where they would be best served.

Chris Duncan, Khalil Greene, Blaine Boyer, and Brad Thompson have to go. When Ryan Ludwick is activated off of the disabled list on Friday, Thompson needs to be sent out to Memphis.

When Wallace is recalled, Thompson and Boyer have to be dealt off to the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are in need of bullpen pitchers. Thompson and Boyer could see more pitching time for the Nationals. In return, the Cardinals need to take a mid to low level prospect. In this case, the returning player is Tom Milone. This will also lead to a call-up of Jess Todd, or a recall of Josh Kinney.

The next deal is sending Duncan and Greene (while picking up 80 percent of the total amount owed to both for 2009) to the Boston Red Sox for Jason Rice. The Red Sox have been linked to Greene over the past week to take up their shortstop post. He is a strong defensive shortstop and he would be their best bet to stay healthy and keep the post. He is also athletic enough that he could play third and second when needed.

With David Ortiz struggling, Duncan would be a good fit. He wouldn't be Ortiz, but his power potential would probably be a welcome addition. He could also serve as a backup when Ortiz starts at the designated hitter position, since Duncan can play left, right, and first, though not well.

The Greene experiment is over. Many were skeptical of the deal when it was made in December, but he is now officially a bust. He would be better served in Boston as a starter at shortstop until Lowrie returns, then become a backup on the infield.

In St. Louis, the Cardinals need to move on and admit that the shortstop position will put out low offensive numbers for the rest of the year. Why? Because with Greene gone, it will become a three-way battle for playing time between Barden, Thurston, and Brendan Ryan, with most of the playing time going to Ryan.

With these two trades and two call-ups, the Cardinals can say that they have a firm grasp on their season, and that they are not afraid to say they made a mistake with Greene. If they want to right the offensive ship and rejuvenate this team, this is what has to be done.

The roster would look like this:

2B - Skip Schumaker
LF - Colby Rasmus
1B - Albert Pujols
CF/RF - Rick Ankiel/Ludwick*
RF/CF - Ludwick/Ankiel
3B - Wallace
C - Yadier Molina
SS - Ryan/Barden/Thurston
Pitcher spot

* = Ankiel when a right-handed pitcher starts and Ludwick when a left-handed pitcher starts

RHPs: Kinney/Todd, Jason Motte, Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan
LHPs: Trevor Miller, Dennys Reyes
CL: Ryan Franklin

To me, that is a much more offensive lineup and a stronger bullpen. Plus, with Wallace in the lineup, it adds a third on-base force to the lineup (Pujols and Molina are the other two).

So why do I think the Cardinals should make all of these moves? I have already stated several reasons, but my main reason is that Wallace needs to be up. He has hit at every level, and even if he puts up just a good line at the Majors this season, it would be very beneficial to him next season.

I don't like Duncan and I never have. I have felt that all he is is an inconsistent power hitter that is horrible in the clutch, a butcher on defense, and too strikeout prone. If he is dealt off, it will show that the front office is dedicated to winning and not pleasing the coaching staff by keeping the pitching coach's son on the team. And yes, Duncan should have been traded after 2006 with Anthony Reyes. The value of each player was high and could have resulted in good players coming the Cardinals way.

Boyer, Thompson, and Greene have never been on my good side and all three are showing why this year. They are average players that are veterans, and the reason why they still plays is because of that. They are clogging spots for good players with more talent and need to go. They are looked to be big pieces here when they are role players elsewhere. Going to Nationals and Red Sox will make them role players, and both teams will better with them (yes, even the Nationals).

The Cardinals need Brett Wallace because there is no better alternative on the current roster or on the trade market. The only player that could be a better alternative is the man Wallace would be replacing (Glaus) and he is out until August. Of course, that is assuming Glaus' doctor appointment goes well.

Brett Wallace needs to be up in early June. No questions asked. Wallace will make this team a winner.

Thinking Ahead: St. Louis Cardinals' 2010 Coaching Staff

Joel Koch — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 22:36:14 -0500

The St. Louis Cardinals are entering an important season. The 2009 season will prove as a large stepping stone for the player development philosophy, but will also prove critical for the coaching staff.

Manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan are the front line coaches that are in the final years of their contracts with the club. The questions remains: Will they return for a 20th season?

I am hoping that they don't. It is nothing personal against either because they are among the best (if not the bets in Duncan's case) in the great history of baseball at their respective coaching positions (Sparky Anderson might have a small leg up on La Russa).

So, what should the Cardinals do? Stay completely in-house.

There is a rule in sports that require the interviewing of minorities for coaching jobs. That rule only comes into play when you are having an open position. Promoting from within the organization eliminates this rule, and that is what the Cardinals should do.

First on the list is hiring a manager. Where to turn? None other than the secret weapon himself: Jose Oquendo. Oquendo has been groomed as a managerial candidate by La Russa. He was around for Whiteyball, and knows what goes down in the Cardinals clubhouse.

Plus, his ability to speak fluent Spanish and English (not to mention a few Japanese words he learned when So Taguchi was in town) gives him a large leg up.

As mentioned before, he has been groomed by La Russa and will use his strategies and thinking when it comes to managing a game. Plus, being around for Whiteyball gives him a large outlook on the running game, and will use that strategy to his advantage as well.

You don't get much better than that when it comes to a manager: over-matching and over-running.

Who will take his spot as third-base coach? Ron Warner, the manager of the Springfield Cardinals.

Warner has been coveted as a Major League manager in the making. Working with Oquendo could get him to that point quickly, especially as third base coach for one of the top franchises in the game.

Warner has revitalized the Cardinals Double-A affiliate, and he is liked by many within the organization. It is this like that will make that the transition from Oquendo to Warner easier at third base, especially with the player development philosophy the Cardinals have implemented (several players on the current roster, and many within the next few years, played for Warner at Springfield).

Where to next? Pitching coach. With Duncan gone, the Cardinals need a new "King of the Hill." Promoting from within again, the Cardinals should use Major League bullpen coach Marty Mason as their next pitching coach.

Every pitcher on the team loves Mason and will listen to him, and he has learned from Duncan as well. The way he prepares the bullpen pitchers would translate well to the starting pitchers, while keeping the binder that Duncan uses.

He would keep the same philosophy as Duncan, while mixing in his own.

Now there is a hole in the bullpen. Where to? Bryan Eversgerd, the pitching coach for the Springfield Cardinals.

Eversgerd will only be entering his second season with the Cardinals this season, but he has been a pitching coach for the Cardinals with their Midwest League teams from 2004-'07. His ability to work with young pitchers will translate well to the organizational build from within philosophy.

With the Cardinals bullpen chuck full of young, talented arms, Eversgerd would be a good compliment to the coaching staff.

The first base coach, bench coach, and hitting coach will stay the same. Joe Petini, Hal McRae, and Dave McKay are not personal coaches for La Russa (though McKay has been with La Russa for almost 20 years) and are more than likely not going to follow La Russa out of St. Louis.

With those three coaches still under the fold, and the promoting from within strategy with Oquendo, Warner, Eversgerd, and Mason, this coaching staff will mesh well together and work great together. And maybe, just maybe, the Cardinals can weather the storm with La Russa leaving...and saving a chunk of money at the same time.

Possible Manny Ramirez Scenario: Rick Ankiel To The Yankees

Joel Koch — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:15:40 -0500

Yesterday, I wrote an article about Manny Ramirez coming to St. Louis. Today, I am expanding on a situation I mentioned within the article: Rick Ankiel traded to the Atlanta Braves.

So, here's the scoop. The Cardinals need pitching help, the Braves need outfield power, and the New York Yankees need a real center fielder. How can all three teams be accommodated? Like this:

New York Yankees receive: OF Rick Ankiel, C Bryan Anderson, LHP Steve Evarts

Atlanta Braves receive: 1B/OF Nick Swisher

St. Louis Cardinals receive: RHP Phil Hughes, LHP Jonny Venters

In this deal, the Yankees dump off $2.3 million in salary, plus a pitching prospect that has not reached his potential in New York. What they add is important: left-handed power and they replenish their system with two good prospects at positions of need.

Ankiel is a large upgrade over Melky Cabrera. Ankiel has 30 home run power, along with the ability to hit well in the clutch. His arm is extremely strong (thanks to being a Major League pitcher) and he has great range, along with good speed.

The Braves are in need of power, along with an outfielder who can play in center. They also do not want a player who will be a free agent after 2009. Their best option (and a player they have been going after for weeks) is Nick Swisher.

Swisher has power, is a switch-hitter, and can play all three outfield spots. They give up two left-handed pitching prospects to land Swisher, which could hurt their pitching depth, for a player signed to a club-friendly contract through 2011, with a 2012 club option.

The Cardinals plug two holes in this deal. Venters is not a need, but he helps add pitching depth, with Anderson essentially being dealt straight up for Venters.

The deal fills the Cardinals hole in the outfield, adds power to their lineup, and provides some pitching depth. Hughes can win the fifth starting job out of Spring Training, if Chris Carpenter is not able to take the role or if Joel Piniero pitches ineffectively during the spring. Hughes hasn't reached his full potential in New York, but pitching in a fan-friendly environment like St. Louis would certainly help him get to that potential.

The other need filled here, and this is the tie-in for this article, is Manny Ramirez. This deal clears $3 million off the books for 2009, which isn't a heck of a lot, but would ease some of the financial restrictions for the 2009 season. With $10 million or so left to spend, this would only add $9 million to the total payroll (which would bring it to around $120 million).

This deal also clears a spot for Ramirez. With Ankiel out of the picture, Ramirez can sign with the Cardinals and not hog an outfield spot from Colby Rasmus.

Now, will this happen? More than likely not (99 percent chance it doesn't), but it is fun to think about.

Let me just add a personal feeling here: Bill DeWitt is cheap, at least that's how he comes off. If he makes a play for Ramirez, he would erase that assumption and fans may start respecting him. He has the money to make the move, and Ramirez is a known revenue generator (approaching 600 career home runs, and his antics get fans to come watch what he will do next).

So, this begs the question (something I have decided to coin because it is very explanatory of DeWitt and his situation in St. Louis): DeWallet or DeWin?

St. Louis Cardinals Should Sign...Manny Ramirez?

Joel Koch — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 18:44:18 -0500

Get it while it is hot everyone. Manny Ramirez is still a free agent and Scott Boras is still trying to find a suitor for his last remaining big time free agent.

Albert Pujols wants the St. Louis Cardinals to sign Ramirez.

Stop. Repeat: Pujols wants Ramirez?

As Larry the Cable Guy would say: Git R Don.

I actually heard about this rumor on MLBTradeRumors.com yesterday, but the rumor is making its rounds now. Pujols has given Ramirez Tony La Russa's phone number, and he is waiting for the Cardinals to jump in.

I may only be a fan, but I do have a strong opinion on this matter: Pujols just said he wants Ramirez, so sign him.

Bill DeWitt is on the record saying that for the right player, he would raise payroll. Newsflash DeWitt: Manny Ramirez is that right player, and your face of the franchise just admitted he wants the Cardinals to sign him. Raise payroll, tell John Mozeliak to sign Ramirez, and enjoy the fruits of your labor.

Another newsflash for DeWitt: if you let Ramirez slip through your fingers (a player who gives the Cardinals a real impact bat), Pujols may follow.

Pujols' contract is up after 2010 (with a 2011 club option). If the Cardinals do not show a true commitment to winning (and not signing Ramirez fits in this category), he may just walk and go to the highest bidder for the largest contract ever, instead of taking a hometown discount to resign with the Cardinals.

With all that behind us, lets look at the positives.

Now, I am a die-hard Cardinals fan, so I like this rumor, but let's really look at this. If Ramirez is batting cleanup, Pujols is will never be intentionally walked again. His numbers will skyrocket and he will be at the top of every offensive category.

Another positive could be that with Ramirez in the lineup, it will take pressure off others to perform at their top levels and let them be support players, instead of playing over their heads and be stars.

Now, how can the Cardinals make this addition without upsetting the natural flow of things in St. Louis? Well, there are two scenarios that could play out. Here is an outlook on both:

Situation One: Rick Ankiel

Ankiel is due to make at least $3 million in arbitration in just a few short weeks. He's also a free agent following the 2009 season. Trading Ankiel would not only cut $3 million from the payroll, his subtraction would also keep a spot open for Colby Rasmus.

So, how would they trade him? Trade him to the Atlanta Braves for LHP Jonny Venters. The Braves are in the market for an outfielder who can play all three outfield spots. Adding Ankiel would also save them prospects instead of trading for Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady.

True, Ankiel would only be in Atlanta for one season, but his left-handed power would come in handy in a lineup lacking pop. He could also sign on long-term, or he could become a Type-A free agent with a good season (he will be a Type B). Both situations would help the Braves in the long term.

After the Ankiel trade, the Cardinals sign Ramirez to a one-year deal worth $22 million. The contract would have a club option for $22 million (and $2 million of the base salary is the buyout for this option). Incentives for games played and innings (if it is allowed) played, for the 2009 season only, are attached that could raise the base salary AND the option year by $3 million. If Ramirez reaches all the incentives, the option is guaranteed. That would make it two years, $48 million.

Not a bad deal.

This situation would leave the Cardinals the best 3-4 hole hitters in baseball plus an open outfield spot for Colby Rasmus. The payroll would be (assuming Ryan Ludwick settles on $4 million in arbitration) around $120 million for the 2009 season. Not really bad at all.

Situation Two: Ryan Ludwick

Ludwick is in line to make $4 million or more in arbitration (no way the arbitrator chooses the Cardinals' figure of $2.8 million). Moving his potential salary would save the Cardinals some payroll room. Plus, since he's still under contract for 2010 and 2011, it would clear off those potential salaries as well.

Trading Ludwick wouldn't be all that complicated. Teams are unwilling to go too high on the trading price because you don't know if his 2008 season was a fluke or not, but if moved for a reasonable price, a deal could be done. Potential trade partners would be the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Braves.

Again, the Cardinals go ask for Venters from the Braves, along with another prospect. The Dodgers, well, who knows? Trading two prospects would be a good a deal for both sides. The Dodgers, in limbo because of Ramirez, could really use Ludwick. Ludwick isn't the same type of hitter that Ramirez is, but he would come cheaper (the Dodgers owner must be an identical twin of DeWitt) and still give them right-handed power.

This trade of Ludwick would also take the Dodgers out of the running for Ramirez and leave the Cardinals as the lone suitor.

That same contract mentioned in the first situation would be given, but the contract would look even better in this situation.

Ankiel and Ludwick would both be off the books for the 2010 season (letting Ankiel walk after the 2009 season). That is a lot of money that won't be tied up. Add in that Troy Glaus, Joel Piniero, Ryan Franklin (option), Kahlil Greene, and Adam Kennedy would also be off the books.

This would lead to a major face lift. David Freese or Brett Wallace would be at third base. Jon Jay or Daryl Jones would be in right field with Rasmus in center field. Those cheap options would mean that the Cardinals have enough money to pay the $22-25 million owed to Ramirez.

So, Manny Ramirez: good idea or bad for the Cardinals? Pujols says good. I say good. Mozeliak and DeWitt? Not sure. Mozeliak shot down that the Cardinals were the "mystery team" yesterday, but we don't know if he's interested.

When it is all said and done, Ramirez falls on DeWitt. Will he live up to his statement of "for the right player" he'd open up his wallet, or will he continue to sit idly by, listening to the fan unrest?

DeWallet or DeWin, we shall see. Stay tuned.

Grading The St. Louis Cardinals Offseason

Joel Koch — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 17:53:28 -0500

It has been an interesting offseason thus far for the St. Louis Cardinals. Coming out of the gate, General Manager John Mozeliak vowed to be aggressive on the free agent market. Then, on Dec. 3, they made their first move of the offseason.

Aggressive? I don't think so.

I have not yet decided which direction I lean on if Mozeliak has potential or is just a hand-puppet for Bill DeWitt. As far as this offseason has gone, I'm leaning towards the latter.

Anyway, without further ado, I give you my grading of the St. Louis offseason. It will first start out with departures, with its overall grade of talent. Following is the arrivals and its overall grade. After that, the overall grade of the offseason.

Departures:
OF Juan Encarnacion
INF Cesar Izturis
INF Aaron Miles
RHP Jason Isringhausen
RHP Mark Worrell
RHP Russ Springer
LHP Randy Flores
LHP Tyler Johnson
LHP Mark Mulder

There are only three players of significance on this list: Isringhausen, Miles, and Johnson. Worrell, Flores, Mulder, Izturis, and Encarnacion (not by choice) didn't do anything of substance for the 2008 Cardinals. The aforementioned three, however, are significant loses.

Despite his ups and downs (mostly downs) in the 2008 season, Isringhausen is a top-notch closer. He owns the most saves in Cardinals history and can serve as a stopping point in a bullpen.

Though Johnson did not pitch in 2008, he is still a very talented left hander with a devastating slider. If healthy in 2009, he could serve as a force from the left side.

Springer is a big loss. He has good stuff and was very dependable the entire season. He never gave out, despite his overexposure.

Miles is the most significant loss. He plays three infield spots, not to mention the corner outfield spots now (he better send a thank you note to Tony La Russa), with a little center field. I think he even serves as an emergency catcher now. With Miles going to the rival Chicago Cubs, the Cardinals may be in for a world of hurt when it comes to late inning match-ups.

Oh yeah, Miles is one heck of a pitcher too.

Departure Grade: B-

Arrivals:
LHP Trevor Miller
LHP Royce Ring
LHP Charlie Manning
INF Khalil Greene
C Jason LaRue (resigned)
INF Joe Thurston

Lets look at this list. There is a infielder with 59 games played (four starts) in the Major Leagues with three teams. Yes, this is Thurston. He was signed almost immediately after non-tendering Miles. Thurston has also only played in the outfield and at second base in the Majors. Good replacement there, right?

LaRue was a good (re)sign. He's a very good backup catcher and proved to be a great asset when Yadier Molina is unable to play.

Greene...well...he can hit? He hit .213 last season, but had 27 home runs the year before. He's just as good of a fielder as the departed Izturis and obviously has more power. His strikeouts are high and he isn't a strong contact hitter when it comes to getting on-base and having a high average.

The three lefties are a completely different story. Miller was a good sign, no question. Even with his "injury" (sorry, but anything Dr. George Paletta diagnoses I will question because of horrible of a team doctor he has been), Miller will improve the left side of the bullpen.

Manning is a decent pitcher, but will be a travel-man his entire career. He's going to be a Randy Flores reincarnate.

Royce Ring? Well, 8.60 earned run average. All I have to say there.

Arrival Grade: C-

Lets recap. The departures got a grade of a B-, which means they were a significant loss. The arrivals grade out at a C-, which means they are below-average adds. This rounds out to an Overall Grade of the Offseason of a C.

Yeah, it has been a very average offseason so far. For this grade to at least get a B-, the Cardinals need to sign a good starting pitcher (and not on the bargain basement level with a Kris Benson purchase) and/or a good hitter or relief pitcher signing (an Orlando Hudson type player, Joe Beimel, or even Will Ohman).

Random Thoughts of the Day

Allen Craig is a solid hitting third base prospect for the Cardinals. He's third on the depth chart (behind David Freese and Brett Wallace), but what about on the second base chart? He was a college shortstop. Maybe a move to an organizational hole could work...

Troy Glaus is hurt and will miss Opening Day. The exact date of his return is unknown, but the end of April seems realistic. That leaves a spot open...

David Freese and Joe Mather are the favorites to take the third base job until Glaus is ready to return and with good reason too. Freese could have cracked the roster, though it would have been difficult, without Glaus being hurt. Seen as a legitimate building piece for the future at either third or left. Mather? Well, the kid is insanely athletic and is seen as a utility player at either third, second, first, or the outfield...

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch annoys me. I know I'll get bashed for this, but I don't like the guy. His writing isn't good, he has an annoying voice, and he's too outspoken to be an impartial media guy...

Finally, I'll leave you with this video I found on a blog. I watched it and laughed. Not at the video itself (it is the Beatles singing), but what it could stand for. You can't watch this video and not think it isn't Bill DeWitt's theme song.

Ben Sheets to The Cardinals? A Changing Perspective

Joel Koch — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 20:16:05 -0500

I have been one of the biggest backers of Jon Garland during this entire offseason. I have read opinions throughout that Ben Sheets should be signed first and foremost, and I completely disagree.

Why? Type A status.

Sheets is a Type A free agent this offseason, so signing him would mean forfeiting the 18th overall pick in June's first year player draft to division rival Milwaukee Brewers. That isn't a good thing.

But, I'm rethinking.

If the Cardinals could sign Sheets on an incentive laden deal, with a club option tacked on, I would heavily reconsider a signing of Sheets. Here, let me show you what I'm talking about.

Here is the contract I have outlined for Sheets, based off of John Smoltz and Carl Pavano's contracts with the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians, respectively:

One year, $1 million with a $1 million club option for 2010 (no buyout)
Incentives for the following (money for incentive in parenthesis):
On Active Roster on Opening day ($150 thousand)
On Active Roster on May 1 ($100 thousand)
June 1 ($100 thousand)
July 1 ($100 thousand)
August 1 ($100 thousand)
September 1 ($100 thousand)
Final Day of Season ($100 thousand)
Being traded during season ($500 thousand)
Starts 20, 22, 24 games ($125 thousand for each)
Starts 26, 28, 30 games ($175 thousand for each)
Starts 31+ games ($325 thousand)
Pitches 120, 130, 140 innings ($125 thousand for each)
Pitches 150, 160, 170 innings ($175 thousand for each)
Pitches 180, 190, 200 innings ($350 thousand for each)
Pitches 201+ innings ($425 )

If he would reach every incentive, he could make $5.5 million for the 2009 season. If he is also traded, that total increases to $6 million. Not bad for a pitcher that needs a job.

About that option. It has no buyout and is worth $1 million. For every $1 million Sheets gains in incentives, the option's salary goes up $1.5 million, plus the buyout goes up by $500 thousand. If Sheets reaches the $5.5 million salary in 2009, the option goes up an additional $3 million. So, if Sheets would hit the $5.5 million in 2009, his 2010 option would be worth $10 million with a $2 million buyout.

For a Type A pitcher that has the ability to be a front of the rotation starter, that's a great contract for both Sheets and the Cardinals. The Cardinals spend money for his performance, and if he's healthy. Sheets pitches for money (a lot of money) and if he can stay healthy, he gets money for that too. It is a win-win for each side.

This would be about the only contract I would like if the Cardinals signed Sheets (okay, the 2009 salary can be raised by $4 million at the most) because it guarantees a safety net of sorts for the Cardinals, in case Sheets is injured.

What this also does for the Cardinals is help set up a very good offseason following the 2009 season. How? Read below.

If Sheets were to reach every incentive, the Cardinals could buyout his option for $2 million. Why would this make sense? If Sheets were reach every incentive, he would be a top pitcher and KEEP his Type A status (his 2008 season was by far one of his best, so that would help his cause for Type A status after 2009). With the economy expected to be better next offseason, he could look for that huge payday he was hoping for.

Oh, did I mention that if that scenario would happen, teams would be more willing to give him that contract because he would have just had a healthy and effective season, proving that he can be healthy and effective at the same time in a full season.

Good deal.

What did I mean when I said it can "set up a very good offseason following the 2009 season" before that outlook on Sheets' 2009-10 offseason? Good question.

The Cardinals have Troy Glaus (likely a Type A), Rick Ankiel (likely a Type B), Todd Wellemeyer (likely a Type B), Ryan Franklin (Type B, could be Type A if closer in 2009), and Joel Piniero (not a Type A or B because he's trash) going to the open market after the 2009 season (Franklin has an option for 2010 that is likely to be declined).

If you add Sheets to that list, the Cardinals could be able to cash in on six draft picks (or seven if Franklin receives a Type A status) for the 2010 draft.

Oh yeah, they would also be shedding $30 million again.

So, Ben Sheets. He's a good pitcher, and if on the right contract, wouldn't be such a bad idea. I'm warming up to it, but that is almost a kiss of death. The last few times I was warming up to an idea, the Cardinals fell out of the race (i.e. Matt Holliday, Brian Fuentes, Brad Penny).

Only time will tell.

Baseball Salary Cap?

Joel Koch — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 17:15:13 -0500

The New York Yankees just spent $423.5 million on three players. Does that mean there needs to be a salary cap in baseball?

No.

Some owners of small-market clubs have been pushing a salary cap since Mark Teixeira signed with the Yankees for $180 million over eight years. Their complaint is that if the Yankees and other teams are willing to spend outrageous amounts of money, the small-market clubs cannot compete.

Owners of small-market clubs, meet the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays went to the World Series last year with a payroll under $50 million. Ever heard of the Colorado Rockies? They went to the World Series in 2007 with a payroll under $60 million. Maybe the Florida Marlins and their $45 million payroll in 2003 (when they last won a World Series) can be part of a compelling argument?

There is no reason for a salary cap in baseball. Here is the bulk of every argument against a salary cap: Minor Leagues.

Major League Baseball has a Minor League system, which really negates any need for a salary cap. The National Football League and National Basketball Association don't have a Minor League system, where they can harness the talent of their younger stars before exposing them to the real pro's.

In Major League Baseball, there is a choice. You can either spend a lot of money on overpriced free agents, or develop your own talent and keep them for six years on a cheaper salary. That can make a major difference in pay.

Why is this even a big deal anyway? The Yankees have spent large amounts of money for years. What has that got them so far? They haven't won a championship since 2000, and haven't been to a World Series since 2003. Heck, they haven't even won in the first round of the playoffs since 2004.

The Yankees can spend all the money they want, it won't make them better. Plus, they have the money and they can spend it however they want.

The Steinbrenner family has a lot of money. How much? Well, George's shipping business brings in over $1 billion a year. Forbes Magazine has valued the Yankees at $1.3 billion, and now have a $1.2 billion stadium opening in less than three months. In other words, the Yankees aren't hurting for money.

Besides, the Yankees do things the right way. I'm not saying every team should spend hundreds of millions of dollars every offseason, but I am saying that owners need to get over a "small market."

Let's look at something.

Lets assume that every team brings in 3 million people a season. If the average ticket is $20, that right there is $60 million a season. If 50 percent of that 3 million buys $5 worth of concessions, that's another $7.5 million. If 30 percent of the 3 million people spend $10 on merchandise, that's another $9 million in revenue.

If you're keeping up, that's $76.5 million in revenues. Then, you also have sponsorships from companies, plus television and radio contracts that bring in money. Let us not forget that naming rights on stadiums bring in a lot of revenue. So, let's say that all of that brings in $23.5 million in revenue. That's $100 million in revenue per season.

On top of that $100 million, there are other factors (I'm just not going to list them all).

Now, why is it that some teams keep their payrolls low, while others spend? Let's think of that.

First and foremost, most teams don't bring in 3 million people a season, which cuts the revenue of the team down. So, that can affect the payrolls of smaller market teams.

Then, I'm reminded of this saying, maybe you have heard of it before? It goes something like this, "If you build it, they will come."

If you spend money on a top tier free agent, people will come to see them. If you build a winner, people will come to see the team (the 2008 Rays are an example of this). And when those people come to see the team, more revenue will come in. With more revenue coming in, you can spend more money.

So, why don't more teams do what the Yankees do (which is, to say, have a payroll in the $100 million range)? Owners like the bottom line, and that bottom line is the money that is coming back into their pockets.

Those owners keep their team's payroll low so they keep more of the revenue (and the luxury tax money that baseball sends their way).

That isn't how you should run a team.

Sorry, this article just did a complete 180. It went from a salary cap to owners and how cheap they are.

Anyway, a salary cap would be a horrible idea for baseball, and it will never fly. Owners want a salary cap because they are tired of other teams spending a lot of money on players, which makes their fans ask why the payroll for their favorite team is so low, which in turn, makes owners look bad.

Another problem with a salary cap is: What would you make it? Would they make it $120 million? Well, a few teams would have to release players (which the union would void; we'll come back to aspect) or trade high-priced veterans for one or two minor league players because they are forced to deal them, not because they want to.

As I just said, the union would have a fit over a salary cap. With a salary cap in baseball, players would be unable to sign with certain teams because those teams would be at the limit. So, those players would have to settle for considerably less money with a losing team, or stay without a job.

Salary caps are a good idea...In sports without Minor League systems. Those sports can't replace aging, high-priced veterans with cheap, younger players whenever they wish. They have to wait for a draft, and even then stay under a certain numbers of players, or keep those drafted players on their roster and never use them (like in the NFL).

Baseball is fine without a salary cap. There is no need. If owners feel like there should be one, then those owners have a problem with spending money instead of making it and should get out of the game. You buy a team to have it win, not make you more money.

No salary cap. Bud Selig, represent the best interest of real owners and say no to salary cap.

Rick Ankiel and His Pending Departure

Joel Koch — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 20:33:55 -0500

As far as I know, there is nothing brewing on the stove for the St. Louis Cardinals. They aren't trying to pry Michael Young loose from the Texas Rangers, or talking to the Chicago White Sox about Bobby Jenks. Heck, they haven't even talked to the Baltimore Orioles about Brian Roberts or George Sherrill (or both) since the end of November.

What I do know is that Rick Ankiel needs to be traded.

I'll be the first to admit that Ankiel is one of my favorite players (I wore my socks up to my knees in 2000 because Ankiel did it that way) and it would be a sad day for me if he is traded; however, he needs to go.

Ankiel is primed to take a $3 to $4 million payday in his final year of arbitration, and with Scott Boras as his agent, he can expect a larger payday after 2009. Boras will talk Ankiel out of renegotiating with the Cardinals before he hits the open market. With Matt Holliday and Jason Bay being the biggest free-agent names in the outfield, Ankiel could be heading towards a large contract.

Why? Holliday and Bay play left field, whereas Ankiel can play the entire outfield—and do it well.

Besides his pending free agency, Ankiel needs to be dealt to cut payroll. With a likely raise of $3 million coming, he could be dealt for a player that isn't going to arbitration for a year or two, which could cut payroll by $500,000 and stop from adding $3 million (which can be added to the amount left over and be used to sign a pitcher).

So, where should Ankiel go? First and foremost, he should be shipped to the Seattle Mariners. Brandon Morrow can be a closer or starter and is very talented. A straight-up trade (or an inclusion of another pending arbitration case, like Brad Thompson or Chris Duncan) would be good for both sides.

The Mariners are trying to rebuild, and Ankiel (being only 30) would be a good start for the organization. A good year out of Ankiel could up his worth to Type A status. He could also bring a big return at the trade deadline if he's having a good year. A bad year would be a good way to leverage Scott Boras into going lower for his next contract and wait for Ankiel rebound in 2010.

If the Mariners won't deal, a "three-way" (a trade leading to a trade, instead of a regular three-way deal) trade with the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals would be a great start. The Nationals have high interest in Nick Swisher. So, a deal of Swisher to the Nationals would bring the Yankees slight salary relief and two or three prospects. The Yankees turn around and deal one of the prospects with Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy to the Cardinals for Ankiel.

The final team would have to be the Atlanta Braves. As happy as I would be to see them pry Yunel Escobar loose, I'm a realist and I know it won't happen, but who said anything about Escobar?

Mike Gonzalez is a good closer and a straight-up trade would be ideal. Of course, this wouldn't shed any payroll for the Cardinals (and would shed about $1 million for the Braves), with Gonzalez also standing to make $5-6 million in his final year of arbitration, but he would be easier to sign to an extension (if need be).

The Mariners are the best match, the Yankees are second, and the Braves are third. There are no other "ideal" straight-up matches out there. A larger deal involving Ankiel would work, but as far as Ankiel alone, these are the only three teams and these are the only targeted players that make the most since for both sides.

I hope Ankiel isn't traded, but I also hope he is. I'm on the fence about this whole situation, but I would be okay with either situation.

Let's not get our hopes up, though, people. John Mozeliak is moving at a snail's pace and may wait until the middle of Spring Training to make a move ("Lohse" another pitcher). Of course, that's if he makes a transaction at all.

I haven't decided one way or another about Mozeliak yet, but I'm starting to lean towards the side that says he is a stooge and a puppet, while having no potential at all.

Here's to hoping Mozeliak makes a few good moves.

How the St. Louis Cardinals Could Think Outside the Box This Offseason

Joel Koch — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 16:49:43 -0500

The Cardinals aren't done building for 2009...though you can make the argument that they haven't really started. I am not going down that road, as I have not determined General Manager John Mozeliak's potential, the team's potential, or what else can happen.

Here is what needs to happen. The Cardinals need to unclog the outfield. How that can come is by not so much focusing on a return, but what is going out. If that doesn't make sense, don't worry...it confuses me too, and I wrote it. I will, however, show you what I mean.

Bear with me, as you all know I like to make up these wild trades.

Chicago White Sox receive: 2B Brian Roberts, OF Rick Ankiel, RHP Joel Pineiro, cash ($1 million from STL for Pineiro)

Baltimore Orioles receive: DH/1B/OF Chris Duncan, OF Jon Jay, RHP Jose Contreras, INF Brent Lillibridge, LHP Wes Whisler, RHP John Lujan, RHP Justin Cassel, cash ($2 million from CHW for Contreras)

St. Louis Cardinals receive: RHP Bobby Jenks, LHP Richard Zagone

Okay, let's break this down some. The White Sox would only add $6.45 million to their 2009 payroll. They dump Contreras (a free agent after 2009) for Pineiro (free agent after 2009 as well). A slight downgrade, but you have to give up something to get something.

The White Sox add power in Ankiel. Yes, he is a free agent after 2009, but with Jim Thome, Octavio Dotel, Pineiro, Roberts, and maybe even Jermaine Dye coming off the books after 2009 ($46 million between those five alone), they can afford to re-sign Ankiel and use him as a building block in their outfield.

Ankiel will only command $8-10 million over four or five years on his next contract (even with Scott Boras as his agent), and that is very affordable in today's market.

Roberts? No problem. Upon arrival, the White Sox can sign him to an extension, or work on one in the offseason. Locking Roberts up would leave Alexei Ramirez at short and give the White Sox one of the best up-the-middle defenses in the league. Roberts and Ankiel's signings would also leave $25 million+ on the table to bring in one or two top free agents for the 2010 season.

The Orioles would only take on $839K in this deal (plus Duncan's arbitration hearing, which should only raise it at the most by $400K). What they add is important. Duncan, if healthy, would add power to their lineup at either first base or the designated hitter spot. Lillibridge would add defense at second base and would provide average offense. He could also be a long-term answer at either middle infield position.

Contreras would be brought in at the same amount as Roberts ($8 million after the $2 million is sent from Chicago to Baltimore) and would be the veteran Baltimore is after to fill out their rotation. Also being a free agent after 2009, they aren't stuck with a bad salary.

Jay, Cassel, Lujan, Whisler, Lillibridge, and Duncan are not Gavin Floyd, but you don't need a star to replace a star. Look at the Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada trades of 2008. Each trade brought in complimentary pieces for the 2008 season and a few young prospects that can blossom in to good players. This does the same.

Jay could be ready for Major League duty in the second half (and would be a good leadoff hitter for Baltimore, while playing any outfield position), with Lillibridge and Duncan playing roles in 2009, then possibly a larger amount of playing time in the second half and certainly in 2010.

Cassel, Lujan, and Whisler would be ready for Major League duty in 2010 (could be a jump) or 2011 (more certain). Major addition by subtraction in this deal.

The Cardinals don't need Jenks, but getting him in this deal would set up a lot of falling dominoes. Stay with me on this.

In this deal, the Cardinals dump $7.289 million for the 2009 season (and lose two arbitration cases, while gaining one). It leaves open an outfield spot for Colby Rasmus, and leaves Skip Schumaker and Joe Mather as the lone backup outfielders.

It also opens up a guaranteed hole in the rotation for Kyle McClellan (now displaced by Jenks) to take over. A dark horse candidate (Jess Todd, Clayton Mortenson, or P.J. Walters) could also take the job.

Those dominoes just fell. It sets up the "young kids" to take a rotation job in 2009 and leaves another hole (Todd Wellemeyer after 2009) for another prospect to take a job in 2010.

The largest domino, though, would be David Freese. Freese has been projected by many "prospect ignorant" fans as the successor to Troy Glaus at third base. With Brett Wallace right on his tail (the true heir apparent at 3B), Freese would do better by moving to the outfield so he can make the club in 2009, rather than 2010.

Freese, while fully able to play 3B, is more agile than Wallace and is a perfect fit in left field. Being alongside Rasmus would help him adjust, as Rasmus can cover a lot of ground.

Think of this lineup.

2B: Kennedy
LF: Freese
1B: Pujols
RF: Ludwick
3B: Glaus
CF: Rasmus
C: Molina
SS: Greene
Pitcher

I know that lineup doesn't follow LaRules, but it is by far the best lineup we could throw out there everyday. It is very balanced between power, streaks, strikeouts, on-base, left/right, and speed. The defense wouldn't look too bad either.

So, keep this article in mind. It won't happen, but it would be great to see it work. Just to watch Mozeliak make this trade and set up the prospects' entries into the Major Leagues would be great.

Who The St. Louis Cardinals Really Need

Joel Koch — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 09:03:26 -0500

The St. Louis Cardinals have addressed some major needs this off-season. They have solidified a weak point in the bullpen (left handed relief) by signing Trevor Miller. He's not a dominant, shut down pitcher, but he gets the job done as a left-handed arm. They also upgraded the offense by adding Khalil Greene to the team. Greene had a down year in 2008, but his down year is better than the up year of Cesar Izturis.

Let's take a look at the 2008 and 2009 starting shortstops for the Cardinals:

Greene - 83 hits, 389 ABs (.213), 30 runs, 35 RBIs, 10 HR
Izturis - 109 hits, 414 ABs (.263), 50 runs, 24 RBIs, 1 HR

So right away, we notice nine home runs, and 11 runs batted in will be gained. Outside of that, these stats don't show that Greene is an upgrade, am I right? Well, I purposely left out their games played. Greene played in only 105 (missed the last two months with a broken hand), while Izturis played in far more with his 135 games played. When spread out over 135 games, Greene's numbers improve: 107 hits, 500 ABs, 39 runs, 45 RBIs, 13 HR. His average and runs are not up to Izturis' standards, but that's still a vast improvement.

What does all this mean? The Cardinals have already upgraded the lineup, meaning that the need for a "big bat" is less important.

Another lineup improvement is Colby Rasmus. I have been saying this for the past six months or so, but Rasmus will vastly improve the lineup. He has speed, power, and can hit for a good average. Add his consistent bat in place of revolving door in left field (or center field if they realign the outfield to be able to play Rasmus in center), and the lineup depth is insanely good.

The more depth you have, the need of a big bat lessens. Think of it this way: the Cardinals' lineup stopped after six batters last year. Molina is a good hitter and very patient, but he doesn't fit under the depth of protection. He anchors the bottom of the lineup.

Think of this lineup being rolled out on the field every night:

CF Colby Rasmus, LF/RF Rick Ankiel/Ryan Ludwick, 1B Albert Pujols, RF/LF Ludwick/Ankiel, 3B Troy Glaus, SS Greene, C Yadier Molina, 2B Adam Kennedy, Pitcher (pitcher bats ninth in my lineups; Ankiel and Ludwick flip when a left handed starter is on the mound)

Now that is depth. There's no true stopping point in that lineup, at least in the first seven. Kennedy, on good days, can be a good hitter. Pitcher? Well, Bud Selig tells us we have to bat them.

So, what do the Cardinals really need (the main topic of this article)? Jon Garland.

The Cardinals have Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, and then a combination of Joel Piniero, Chris Carpenter, Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, Jess Todd, and P.J. Walters. This is starting to look like 2007 all over again. Adding Garland to the rotation would not only give us a better front three (while allowing Wellemeyer to slide into the four spot instead of being the No. 3), but it even masters the bullpen. Take this ride with me:

The Cardinals sign Garland and have four starters penciled in. They promise a healthy Carpenter the fifth spot. This slides Piniero to the bullpen (Piniero, Ryan Franklin, Chris Perez, Jason Motte, and Josh Kinney from the right side) and Kyle McClellan to Memphis to stretch out as a starter (Todd, Boggs, Clayton Mortenson, Walters, and McClellan in the Memphis rotation, and this would be a fearsome five for Triple A).

If Carpenter isn't healthy, those five arms (Piniero, Todd, McClellan, Boggs, Walters) fight in an open competition for the fifth starting job. This creates a good problem to have (too much starting pitching) to protect ourselves in case of injuries, something we didn't have in 2008. It also solidifies the bullpen by adding a true long man and sixth starter type to the bullpen to absorb innings and won't overwork any of the short arms.

So, Garland. Yeah, you can make the argument he isn't a No. 2 pitcher, or even a three. The fact of the matter is, he gives 190+ innings every year and 30+ starts. He has also pitched his entire career in the American League (with far better offensive numbers) and pitching in the National League should lower his earned run average by more than half-a-run (not his 2008 ERA, his career ERA; using that as his norm).

What would his contract look like?
2009: $6.5 million; 2010: $8.5 million; 2011: $10 million, $1 million buyout (club option)

Two years at $16 million, or three years at $25 million is a very good contract for a pitcher of his type. Plus, it is now officially January and there is still a vast amount of pitching on the market. Pitchers will be taking less than what they originally wanted, and this deal will not insult Garland (like the New York Mets offer did to Derek Lowe).

Enjoy the rest of New Year's day! And don't forget, the Major League Baseball Network starts in less than an hour! Check it out on DirecTV Channel 213!

The Return of the Ludicrous Trade Proposals

Joel Koch — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:19:44 -0500

Well, I have returned to Bleacher Report, and you all know I like pretending to be a baseball General Manager. So, the odd proposals return. Let's start out with one of the largest I have ever thought up.

Seattle Mariners receive: OF Rick Ankiel, OF Jon Jay, 1B/OF Chris Duncan, RHP Brad Thompson

St. Louis Cardinals receive: RHP Brandon Morrow, RHP Michael Pineda

There's a second part to this, so sit tight. Here is the second and final part:

Baltimore Orioles receive: 1B Lyle Overbay, 2B Adam Kennedy, OF Darryl Jones, 1B/3B/OF Allen Craig, RHP Michael Pineda, LHP Marc Rzepczynski

Toronto Blue Jays receive: RHP Joel Piniero, RHP Jason Motte, RHP Clayton Mortenson, 2B Donovan Solano, LHP Troy Patton

St. Louis Cardinals receive: 2B Brian Roberts, LHP Scott Downs

Okay, now this will never happen in a perfect world, or a non-perfect world for that matter. If you look at this though, it is very balanced and fills holes for each team involved. So, lets break it down from each team's point of view.

Mariners: Sure, they lose one of their 2009 Top 10 prospects and a starter/reliever that is very good. What they get in return is far better. They add an outfielder for a season that hits from the left side with power.

Ankiel is also very solid defensive player with a great arm (former pitcher, remember?) and would complement Ichiro very well.

Thompson and Duncan are both throw-ins in this deal, but still fill out the Mariners' roster. Thompson adds a sinker to a bullpen that could use some strengthening. Their infield defense would also stay the same with Jose Lopez staying at second instead of moving to first.

Duncan isn't anyone's first option for a starting job, but if healthy and playing first with some designated hitter thrown in, his bat could revive.

Blue Jays: Well, they're a team that likes taking the Cardinals "trash" players. Note Scott Rolen, Kelvin Jimenez, Cody Haerther. Piniero would add depth to their starting staff that has taken a huge hit. A.J. Burnett opted out and signed with the Blue Jays' American East rival New York Yankees.

Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan will be missing most of or all of the 2009 season. Mortenson and Patton would also add very talented depth that could make the 2010 Toronto rotation very talented and lethal. Motte's blazing fastball would be a good complement to their young bullpen arms.

Solano is another throw-in that adds infield depth to the Blue Jays system.

Orioles: They lost out on the Mark Teixiera sweepstakes, not to mention the Burnett derby. What do they add? Defense and offense. Overbay gives the Orioles a defensive first baseman with great doubles power and he's a 20-home-run threat.

Kennedy gives them a stopgap at second that provides above-average defense (and Ceasar Izturis' double play partner from 2009) and gives a .280 average.

Added into the deal is Pineda, the pitching prospect from the Mariners, with Rzepcynski, a left handed starter from Toronto's system, for added starting depth to an already improving, young rotation.

Let's not forget that Allen Craig can win the 2011 starting first base job (or left field, or third base, or DH) and provide 20 home run power. Jones can take the everyday left field job in 2010 or 2011 and match up well with Adam Jones at the top of the Orioles lineup.

Cardinals: Well, they do have to deal 11 players to land the three in return, but these two deals pay big dividends. Morrow can be a starting pitcher for 2009, or take the closers job in 2009 (if he wins the spring competition). He adds quality depth and insurance on both sides.

Roberts gives the Cardinals that much needed lead off man and if signed to a three year extension, would fill an organizational hole. He also provides above-average defense. Downs would fill the second left-handed bullpen arm and is signed through 2010, allowing for Tyler Johnson and his shoulder to fully heal while pitching at Memphis for 2009.

Jones, Jay, Motte, Mortenson, Ankiel, and Craig are the only, truly players of substance sacrificed. Kennedy, Thompson, Duncan, Piniero, and Solano are more part of a salary dump and system cleaning.

What these trades really do is hack a path through the overcrowded fields for the minor-league prospects to make their impacts known without "favorites" clogging the hole.

The Bottom Dollar: Well, here is the payroll implications on these trades:
Mariners - adds $463,000 to payroll, plus the arbitration case of Rick Ankiel
Blue Jays - dumps $2,470,000 from payroll
Orioles - add $2,610,000 to payroll
Cardinals - dumps $1,503,000 from payroll

Okay, so that is out of the way. As I said, this will never happen, but it's fun to dream, right? The fun doesn't stop here though, folks.

According to Derrick Goold and his audit of the Cardinals payroll, the Cardinals had $20.6 million left to spend after re-signing Kyle Lohse. With the additions of Khalil Greene and Trevor Miller, the Cardinals have around $13.6 million to spend (minus the arbitration case outcomes).

With that knowledge, let's take my trades into account. The Cardinals would have one pending arbitration case (Ryan Ludwick), with $15.1 million left to spend. Assuming he receives a $2.6 million raise (from $411K to $3 million), the Cardinals would have $12.5 million left to spend. Where does it go? Right here:

Cardinals sign RHP Jon Garland to a two-year, $16 million deal.

2009: $6.5 million; 2010: $8.5 million; 2011: $10 million, $1 million buyout (club option)

That free-agent signing would complete the offseason. Garland would give the Cardinals four starters penciled in, with Chris Carpenter and Morrow vying for the No. 5 spot. After 2009, the Cardinals let Todd Wellemeyer walk and have a spring competition for the No. 5 spot between Morrow and Jess Todd.

Well, I am back at Bleacher Report. Moral of the story folks :-)

Happy New Year!

2008 Postseason Predictions

Joel Koch — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 16:04:52 -0400

Well, it's October (almost), and it's time for predictions about the postseason picture. I don't think anyone have ever gotten all of their picks right before. I see the postseason as the NCAA basketball tournament. A million and one predictions, never one completely correct.

I'll try my best, though.

American League

Tampa Bay Rays versus Chicago White Sox or Minnesota Twins

First off, it's all about the Twins. The White Sox will either lose Monday against the Detroit Tigers in their makeup game, or will lose in the one-game playoff. This series is all about the low-revenue-team series.

The Rays are taking this in four games. They are no longer crawling to the finish line. The Rays are in and they have the best team to finish a job. The Rays will win Games One, Three, and Four. Game Two will a close game but will ultimately be lost when Kazmir is relieved.

Final: Rays win in four.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim versus Boston Red Sox

Now, this is a series. Both teams have strong offense and pitching staffs. Neither team is new to each other, having met up in the 2003 ALDS, and most recently the 2007 ALDS.

You can't go wrong by picking either team, but I'm going with Angels. Their pitching is just deeper than the Red Sox. They hold four starters to the Red Sox's three, so they will be fresher in the later series. I do see this going to the wire, with the Angels winning the odd games and Red Sox winning the even.

Final: Angels win in five.

National League

Chicago Cubs versus Los Angeles Dodgers

You cannot call what I'm about to say a bias pick. Yes, I believe the Cubs will get laughed out of this series, but I'm doing this based on baseball picks. The Cubs will win this series.

Let's face it: The Dodgers have a bad team. They barely finished above .500 and played in a weak division. The Cubs have four really good starters and are winning this thing in four games. Harden will crumple under the pressure of the playoffs and/or will get injured in his start, leading to a Game Three loss.

Final: Cubs win in four.

Milwaukee Brewers versus Philadelphia Phillies

This one isn't even close, folks. The Brewers can't win without Sabathia, and he has to pitch in Game Two. The Brewers aren't even dumb enough to pitch him on TWO days rest in the first game of the series. The next time he could pitch would be Game Five, which won't come.

The Phillies are sweeping this series. Sabathia has had a huge workload this year since the overuse by Ned Yost (and now by Dale Sveum). He has pitched three times in 12 days, and will be pitching (again) on three days rest in Game Two.

His arm will fall off, count on it. The Phillies will pound whomever the Brewers send out in Game One. Ben Sheets cannot be counted on.

Final: Phillies sweep

American League Championship Series

Tampa Bay Rays versus Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

I have been trying to debate this for weeks. I really don't know which team I like more. I jumped on the Rays' bandwagon in May (when I placed a $5 bet on them winning the A.L. East with my brother, a Toronto Blue Jays fan, mind you), so I'm favoring the Rays.

On the other hand, I'm a big fan of Vladimir Guerrero. I am going to give the edge to the Angels, however. Their pitching is stronger than the Rays, and they have more experience.

Plus, you can't argue that Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields are the strongest eighth and ninth-inning men in the game.

Final: Angels win in six.

National League Championship Series

Chicago Cubs versus Philadelphia Phillies

Now the bias kicks in. The Cubs are not winning this series. The Dodgers have Manny Ramirez, that's it. The Cubs' "big" hitters can match up with Ramirez easily. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are going to run all over the weak-catching Geovany Soto.

Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are going to rip the now-weak Cubs pitching apart (since Harden is injured, as I am predicting). The Cubs' bullpen will not hold up under the stress and the Phillies' daunting offense, and the Phillies bullpen will stay strong.

Final: Phillies win in six.

WORLD SERIES

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim versus Philadelphia Phillies

This should be a one-sided affair. The Phillies have a good pitching corps, but it's pretty short with only three good starters. With the Angels, they have four solid starters and a more daunting bullpen.

The offenses should be evenly matched, with maybe a slight edge towards the Angels, only because of the Angels pitching.

This one shouldn't be long, but it shouldn't be easy. Don't expect a sweep, but something close to it. Can you say, "Angels in five?"

There you have it folks. I have predicted my postseason. I have no idea how this will go down, as no one really does. The postseason is an entirely different season all together and anything can happen.

Who saw the Colorado Rockies unprecedented run to the World Series? How about the St. Louis Cardinals and their 2006 World Series championship over the heavily favored Detroit Tigers?

Only time will tell.

Looking Ahead to 2009: St. Louis Cardinals Offseason

Joel Koch — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 10:05:14 -0400

Back at the start of August, I provided you with my offseason for the St. Louis Cardinals. Well, a month has gone by now, and I have a completely different outlook now. The Cardinals are sinking and they need more reinforcements than what I originally provided to survive.

So, I have changed my entire layout. I’ve spent more in the free agent market, setup a completely new roster, and I must say, I like what I see.

I have looked and looked, but I think now for the Cardinals to win, they have to spend money to win. The farm system will provide benefits down the line, but not until 2010. It has taken a giant step forward this season, but 2010 is when it’ll provide the talent it is developing.

Here is my updated offseason. I’ll tell you right now, the Cardinals are going to have to pry open DeWallet (otherwise known as Bill DeWitt, Jr or he and his wallet). My payroll for 2009 is: $118,578,000. Not what DeWitt wants to see, but that’s what it’ll take to win now a days.

Without further ado, here it is:

Trades

St. Louis Cardinals receive: OF Matt Holliday

Colorado Rockies receive: RHP Joel Pineiro, OF Jon Jay, 3B David Freese, RHP Kyle McClellan

St. Louis Cardinals receive: RHP Daniel Cortes

Kansas City Royals receive: 2B Adam Kennedy

Ending money result: $13.5 million added for Holliday; Dropping Pineiro, McClellan, and Kennedy’s contracts results in $11.89 million; $1.61 million added to payroll.

Breakdown: This is fairly easy to breakdown. The Cardinals need an impact bat behind Albert Pujols in this lineup and Holliday is it. It won’t take much to get him, well, not with what the Cardinals are giving up. First, they have to take on Pineiro and his contract. That results in the Rockies dropping six million in pay, the Cardinals adding six million.

The Rockies GM, Jim O’Dowd, has a man crush on McClellan. In the Brian Fuentes talks, McClellan was in on every discussion because O’Dowd likes his stuff. Plus, McClellan could start 2009 for the Rockies, or be a setup man to Manny Corpas.

In Jay, the Rockies get the 2010 replacement for Holliday. Jay is a leadoff caliber player with a lot of speed and 10-15 home run pop. He’s a .300 hitter in the making. Freese would add a power bat to the lineup. He could play left in place of Holliday, maybe third base as well. With Garret Atkins available in the offseason, Freese could provide the Rockies with some major depth.

Of course, you can add Bryan Anderson to this deal as well, depending on what the Rockies really want for Holliday.

Kennedy wants to be traded; the Royals need a stopgap at second. With Kennedy being a free agent after 2009, it makes sense. Cortes doesn’t project as much, but has put up some good numbers. It’s a good return for the Cardinals and the Royals, who have a deep system anyway.

Signings

AJ Burnett OR Ryan Dempster: Four years, $54 million ($16 million club option for 2013, $4 million buyout)

2009: $10 million; 2010: $12 million; 2011: $13.5 million; 2012: $14.5 million; 2013: $16 million, $4 million buyout

Derek Lowe: 3 years, $31 million

2009: $9.25 million; 2010: $10.25 million; 2011: $11.5 million

Will Ohman: 1 year, $3 million ($4.35 million club option for 2010, $350K buyout)

2009: $2.65 million; 2010: $4.35 million, $350K buyout

Juan Cruz: 2 years, $6 million

2009: $2.5 million; 2010: $3.5 million

Orlando Hudson: 4 years, $39 million

2009: $8.5 million; 2010: $9 million; 2011: $10.25 million; 2012: $11.25 million

Felipe Lopez: 2 years, $5 million

2009: $2.25 million; 2010: $2.75 million

Breakdown: OK, so I hope you guys see what I’m doing here. The Cardinals need a frontline starter. Chris Carpenter is in doubt, and Adam Wainwright is only so good. They need someone to match up with Wainwright at the front of the rotation. Burnett or Dempster meet these criteria. I say “or” because it’s one or the other. I’d offer both the same contract; first to bite gets the contract.

Lowe is something entirely different. The Cardinals need a true middle-of-the-rotation starter that can act as an ace when he has to, but is actually a number two or three starter. That’s where Lowe comes in. Signing Lowe would provide insurance if Carpenter isn’t ready to go, and is more of a number three than Todd Wellemeyer.

Ohman and Cruz are different all together. With McClellan and Ron Villone gone, the Cardinals need to fill the glaring holes. Justin Fiske won’t be ready to be a left hander out of the bullpen until 2010, at the earliest. Ohman fills that hole.

Cruz fills the hole vacated by McClellan and provides another closer candidate to the mix, in case Chris Perez can’t fill the hole. Plus, Cruz would be a better option for a setup man and a closer fill-in than Ryan Franklin.

Hudson fills another void. The Cardinals don’t really have a fill-in at second base for the future. Jarrett Hoffpauir isn’t an everyday Major League player, neither is Brendan Ryan.

Hudson is a Gold Glove second baseman that makes the right side of the Cardinal infield the best in baseball. Plus, he’s an everyday leadoff man (another thing the Cardinals need) who hits from both sides of the plate.

Lopez is another need. He has proven that he is a quality player with a good attitude when he’s in the right environment; however, he’s not an everyday player. That’s where the platoon comes in handy. Lopez and Aaron Miles will platoon at shortstop for 2009, since there really isn’t any better option.

Rafael Furcal is a good player, but he’s been a little too injury prone the past few seasons. Of course, the same goes for Hudson, which is why you go with one or the other. Since the Cardinals don’t really have any good second baseman coming up through the system, this makes Hudson the better choice.

OK, that’s my created offseason in its entirety. Here is the completed financial status:

2008 Payroll: $103,248,500

2009 Payroll (pre-offseason): $81,818,000

Updated 2009 Payroll: $118,578,000

2009 Roster

Pitching

SPs: Adam Wainwright, AJ Burnett/Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe, Todd Wellemeyer, Chris Carpenter or Jess Todd/Mitchell Boggs/PJ Walters/Clayton Mortenson

Bullpen

RP: Ryan Franklin, Juan Cruz, Josh Kinney, Jason Motte

LP: Tyler Johnson, Will Ohman

CL: Chris Perez

Offense

2B: Orlando Hudson
SS: Felipe Lopez/Aaron Miles
1B: Albert Pujols
LF: Matt Holliday
RF: Ryan Ludwick
CF: Rick Ankiel*
3B: Troy Glaus*
C: Yadier Molina
Pitcher
* = Flip against left handed starters

Bench: C Bryan Anderson/Jason LaRue, IF Brendan Ryan, IF Lopez/Miles, OF Joe Mather, OF Skip Schumaker

Let’s take a look at this. The Cardinals front three starters would be solid, and maybe the best in baseball. The back end would also be strong. Wellemeyer has shown flashes of brilliance this year, and in his second full year of starting, he can only get better.

The fifth starter role is kind of up in the air. If Carpenter is healthy, then he obviously takes the job and makes the rotation the strongest in baseball, without a doubt. If he isn’t healthy, the Cardinals should make it an open competition from the Memphis starting pitchers: Todd, Mortenson, Walters, and Boggs. It’s truly only fair. The Cardinals are trying to rebuild the farm system, and this would make 2008 worth it. This would show what the system is made of.

The bullpen is different. Six of the seven roles are taken. It’s Johnson’s role that could be up in the air. If Johnson isn’t healthy enough to take the job, Fiske (who I mentioned earlier) should be given the opportunity to win the job. Of course, if Brian Fuentes or some other strong left hander is still on the open market, the Cardinals should sign one of them to fill the hole.

The lineup is totally different. With Hudson and Miles/Lopez at the top of the lineup, the Cardinals would have two strong table setters in front of Pujols. Plus, all three are switch hitters, which would make late inning pitching matchups difficult.

Pujols would finally have a capable bat behind him in Holliday. Plus, with Ludwick providing secondary protection, that makes the lineup deeper. When you add the streaky Ankiel and Glaus after the heart of the order, the Cardinals would have great third level protection for Pujols.

Plus, switching their positions in the lineup when a left hander is on the mound makes this lineup even deadlier. Any time you can bat a 30 home run threat seventh, your lineup is extremely deep.

Molina would be bringing up the rear, but not by choice. Molina has proven to be a solid bat, but has to bat ninth with the five 30 home run hitters in front of him. It’s out of necessity.

The bench is also more solid. You still have your power threat on the bench in Mather. Schumaker provides a quality defender who bats from the left side on the bench for when one of the three outfielders need a day off. Ryan has been becoming more valuable by the day recently, and if he could hit again, it would make this lineup even deeper. LaRue would only come back if Anderson isn’t thought of being ready (or if he’s traded for Holliday).

Well Cardinals fans, let’s put 2008 behind us. We tried our hardest and we overcame a lot of obstacles along the way, but in the end, we just didn’t have it. Retooling for 2009 needs to happen, and if the offseason is shaped as I have shaped mine, 2009 could be a very good season.

Let’s look forward and hope John Mozeliak and company have a grand plan.

Cardinals Overhauling Again?

Joel Koch — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 06:33:50 -0400

It was October of 2007 when Walt Jocketty was fired. The Front Office overhaul began. The Cardinals then hired John Mozeliak as the General Manager. They fired several more "Jocketty guys" and hired "Bill DeWitt guys" to fill the slots.

DeWitt had what he wanted, finally. A GM he could trust by telling him what he wants and knowing he would do it. He had his own guys in place throughout the organization now.

Now, DeWitt needs to overhaul again.

The St. Louis Cardinals medical staff is a joke. I'm not talking the training staff, they know what they're doing. I mean the team doctors.

Let me give you some examples.

These are the same team doctors that told Chris Carpenter that he could rehab his torn elbow ligament and continue pitching. They told Rick Ankiel his abdominal strain would heal over time and he'd be good as new in two weeks.

Doctor George Paletta, the Cardinals main team doctor, told Alan Benes that his shoulder would hold up and he only needed to do a cleanup surgery. He also told Mark Mulder that he's great at shoulder surgeries and the recovery time is slow.

Well, let's see how all this went.

Carpenter had to have Tommy John surgery in July of 2007 because Dr. James Andrews, the Zeus of doctors, told him that he needed Tommy John surgery. You cannot pitch with a torn ligament in your pitching elbow.

Carpenter could have had the surgery in April of 2007, had the normal rehabilitation time (14 to 16 months), and could have came back at the exact same time in 2008.

Ankiel sat out for two straight weeks, pinch hitting to make his abdominal strain worse. He is now done for the year because he's going to have surgery. How do you repair a strained abdominal muscle?

Ankiel doesn't know. He's going under surgery to fix a sports hernia. Had Ankiel been properly diagnosed, he could have had the surgery right away and been back a week ago, fully healthy.

Benes' career ended with his shoulder issues. Paletta is suppose to be one of the nation's top shoulder specialist and he ruined Benes' shoulder.

The same can be said for Mark Mulder. Mulder needed a true reconstructive shoulder operation, like what Carpenter had gotten in 2002. Had he had that immediately in 2006, he could have been back at full strength at the start of 2008 and wouldn't be mulling retirement.

How Paletta and his doctor team are still the heads of the Cardinals medical staff is beyond me. These guys ruin athletes and tell the front office that their players are fine.

If DeWitt wants to make a serious run at his second World Series title as the owner of the Cardinals, he needs to overhaul his medical staff. Fire them all and hire real doctors to take over.

A candidate, in my mind, for the head of the medical staff would be none other than Zeus himself: Dr. James Andrews. If he'd be willing to leave his practice and become the Cardinals medical staff head, the Cardinals would be in solid shape.