Bleacher Report - Articles by Paul Cicchini

UFC: Tito Ortiz, Vitor Belfort In...Fedor Out

Paul Cicchini — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:55:01 -0400

UFC president Dana White spoke to the media today about Fedor Emelianenko and the upcoming events and news in the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

Fedor

White says Fedor will not be fighting for the UFC.

"We came to the table willing to give up just about anything, except the co-promotion," said White. "I guarantee you he won't be offered another deal like this in mixed martial arts."

White says if Fedor wanted to challenge himself, he would come to the UFC. Randy Couture, Brock Lesnar, Frank Mir, Chieck Congo, Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin and Mirko Cro Cop were some of the names White mentioned as potential competitors.

There is no doubt the UFC has the most depth at heavyweight. In fact, among those on the UFC's roster, Fedor has only fought Cro Cop, Heath Herring, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Fedor has also dispatched former UFC champions Andrei Arlovski and Tim Sylvia in his two fights with the now defunct Affliction promotion.

White contends the UFC/Fedor deal is not completely dead. He says the UFC is still willing to do a deal, but it will not involve co-promotion. White says M1 Global can call now and he'll keep talking.

Old Fighters Back

The bigger news, though, concerns two other fighters. Tito Ortiz (15-6-1), the UFC's longest reigning light heavyweight champion, is making his return to the Octagon. And, Vitor Belfort (18-8), who last fought for the Las Vegas-based promotion in 2005, which coincidentally was a loss to Ortiz.

In his return, Belfort will be fighting Rich Franklin (25-4). The two will headline UFC 103 in Dallas.

"When we announced that Rich Franklin was fighting Dan Henderson, fans were pissed," White says. "Fans didn't like it."

As for Henderson, White says he is likely the next fighter to get a shot at Anderson Silva's belt.

"Dan Henderson is definitely next in line for the title shot," said White. "The Nate Marquardt, Damien Maia fight puts them in the mix, too."

Ortiz says he is healthy and nearly ready to fight.

"For me, it was about competition," said Ortiz. "Competition was my biggest factor...Babalu, I'd crush his face...Frank Shamrock would be the first death in mixed martial arts history."

Ortiz says he is pain free and no longer experiences numbness in his legs. He is preparing to wrestle.

Ortiz is possibly eyeing a spot on the main card for the UFC's New Year's Eve show. According to White, Ortiz's next fight in the 205-pound division could be against Mark Coleman (16-9).

"We're talking about him fighting Mark Coleman," said White. "He (Coleman) came out and beat Stephen Bonnar, so we're talking about Tito versus Mark Coleman in his first fight."

Ortiz said, "Thanks, Dana, now I've got my work cut out for me."

Other Notes

ESPN UK and UFC reached a deal. The three-year deal will launch Aug. 13, starting with UFC 101, for free to English and Irish fans. The broadcast will be in high definition.

Paul Daley, Ben Rothwell, Dan Lauzon, LC Davis, Javier Vasquez, Mark Hominick, Chase Gormley, and Rafaello Oliveira are all signed with Zuffa in either the UFC or WEC based on weight. White says they are in talks with other fighters, including Gegard Mousasi.

White also says the UFC will continue promotion in other states and countries, including Russia and Japan.

Prodigy Penn lacks motivation?

Paul Cicchini — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 22:17:00 -0400

Word on the street is that BJ Penn (13-5-1) may pull out of his upcoming fight against Kenny Florian (11-3). According to the Cagewriter blog on Yahoo!, Penn is lacking interest in fighting Florian. Whether that's due to the birth of Penn's daughter, or his general lack of interest in competing against an inferior fighter, I'm sure we'll know more in the coming weeks.

I don't think I'm going out on a limb when I say there is no one in the 155 weight class who can challenge Penn. According to UFC.com, there are 57 lightweight fighters in the division, including Penn. Among those Penn has fought and defeated: Caol Uno, Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson.

Florian has fought Stevenson and Sherk. He is 1-1 in those fights with a unanimous decision loss to Sherk and a rear-naked choke win over Stevenson. The win over Stevenson is especially humbling for Stevenson as he had just received his Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt.

There is no doubt Florian deserves credit. He is on a six fight win streak and he earned the title shot. Aside from defeating Stevenson during that run, Florian also beat Roger Huerta (who has moved on to film) and Joe Lauzon.

Of course, the rumors were intensified following Diego Sanchez's split decision win Saturday over Clay Guida. In his post-fight remarks, Sanchez told Cagewriter, "Say something happens and B.J. isn't ready to defend his title and he vacates, Diego Sanchez is going to be right there saying 'Joe Silva, let's get it homie. Bring Kenny Florian one more time. Let's do this!'"

This prompted some to question Penn's devotion, interest and weight. However, according to Penn's own website, Penn, in a video from June 23, weighs in at 167.6 pounds. That means he has to lose no more than 11.6 pounds in the next 45 days. That's easy, even for Penn.

I won't go into too much detail right now about why I think this is an unfair fight that favors Penn, but there are too main reasons: 1) Penn's boxing. 2) Penn's BJJ. If Florian has one advantage, it might be in Muay Thai. Unfortunately for Florian, his reach, despite standing 5'10" is 68 inches and the shorter Penn (5'9"), has about a 70 inch reach.

Penn should be able to work his jab, wear Florian down and finish him in three rounds or fewer. Whether that comes on the feet or on the ground it will be for Penn to decide. If and when Penn wins this fight though, I would be concerned where his head might be at when it comes to potential challengers at 155.

Dana White may have to make another surprise, high-level signing to keep Penn. A few of the fighters who may be able to give Penn a better run include Shinya Aoki, Joachim Hansen and Eddie Alvarez.

Linehan Will Be Key to Piling Points in '09

Paul Cicchini — Fri, 29 May 2009 15:26:17 -0400

It’s time to get down to the X’s and O’s of the Detroit Lions. I covered some of the major coaching changes in Detroit earlier this week in The Schwartz Factor in Detroit, and now I’ll explain what those changes mean for the Lions on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.

Because the main scheming will come from the head coach and offensive and defensive coordinators, I’ll stick to Gunther Cunningham and Scott Linehan. Since Jim Schwartz hired these guys, it should explain how he factors into each man’s individual success. For more on other coaching contributions, reference The Schwartz Factor.

Defense

Interestingly, this is not the first time Cunningham and Schwartz have worked for the same team. In fact, from 2001-03, Cunningham was the assistant head coach and linebackers coach in Tennessee while Schwartz was the Titans defensive coordinator. The year prior to Cunningham’s arrival, Schwartz was the linebackers coach.

Cunningham has made his career in the NFL as a defensive coordinator, but the first time he held the position was 1979 at California-Berkeley. It wasn’t again until 1992, Cunningham became the coordinator for the then L.A. Raiders. Since, he held the position twice in Kansas City before this stop in Detroit.

In K.C., Cunningham coached a 3-4, but in Tennessee he coached the 4-3. In Detroit, he will also coach the 4-3. Detroit is undersized at the end positions and at tackle to even consider a 3-4.

The draft has not been good to Detroit and things were much the same for the Lions when they selected Ikaika Alama-Francis with the 58th overall pick in 2007. Even second-year player Cliff Avril has a lot to prove. In a total of 19 games, Alama-Francis has one sack and 20 solo tackles. In just 13 games, during his rookie campaign, Avril was much more active notching 18 solo tackles, five sacks and four forced fumbles.

The Avril/Alama-Francis combo will have to provide plenty of pressure this season to alleviate the secondary, which is young and not overly athletic. Detroit will hope anything that goes long will be broken up by, what could be, a hard-hitting pair of safeties in Daniel Bullocks and Louis Delmas.

The big key on the Lions defense is the linebacking corps. The veterans Larry Foote (28) and Julian Peterson (30) are not necessarily pushing the limits of their careers and they could be a huge help to linebackers coach Matt Burke as the try to reel in players like Zack Follet and DeAndre Levy.

In a recent interview with WDFN Detroit’s Matt Sheppard, Ernie Sims said in Cunningham’s defense, “You're not playing like a robot, like I was the last couple of years.” He says the style allows him to play his game and make plays.

Sims also alluded to the fact that Detroit’s defense may also utilize the 3-3-5 and blitz from any position on the field.

Last year Detroit only ran the Tampa 2. The Lions didn’t have enough team speed to put pressure on the quarterback and allow their safeties time to set up. This year should be different. With different blitz packages and formations, the Lions will be much more difficult to figure out and pick apart. If you don’t remember, it was the rookie Matt Ryan, of the Atlanta Falcons, who exploited what the Lions lacked defensively, all the way back in week one.

Cunningham has a strong history of statistically strong defenses, especially when it comes to third down percentage and yardage. Sure, he doesn’t have Dan Saleaumua or Derrick Thomas, but he does have Larry Foote and Sims. I fully expect Cunningham to use creativity and surprise to level the playing field for Detroit’s defense.

Offense

Believe it or not, the Lions season will be made based on the offense. Detroit has speed at receiver, a pair of tough running backs and a veteran quarterback. Most importantly, Scott Linehan is reunited with Daunte Culpepper.

That’s great news for Daunte who made his name in Minnesota connecting on bombs to Randy Moss. Even though Culpepper is not the same as he was nine years ago, he still has a cannon and a tall, fast playmaker in Calvin Johnson.

Culpepper’s best seasons were in 2000, ’03 and ’04. In 2000, Linehan was not on the Vikings staff, but Culpepper threw 33 touchdowns, nearly 4,000 yards and had a passer rating of 98.0. Culpepper also ran for seven TDs and nearly 500 yards. 2002, a down year for Culpepper, could be attributed to a transition period with Linehan.

But in ’03, Culpepper was back on track throwing 25 TDs and 3,479 yards with a passer rating of 96.4 and returning to the Pro Bowl; his second appearance. It was fortunate at the time, but unfortunately for Culpepper’s young career, his performance peaked in 2004, which coincidentally was Linehan’s last year in Minnesota. In what would be Culpepper’s third Pro Bowl season, he threw for 39 TDs, 4,717 yards, only 11 interceptions and finished with a passer rating of 110.9.

I would imagine Linehan would utilize a similar approach this year in Detroit. And it’s important to recognize Linehan isn’t just a passing coordinator. 2003 wasn’t just a good year for Culpepper; the backs in Minnesota were great. Linehan used Moe Williams, Onterio Smith and Bennett to accumulate 2,343 yards, good for fourth in the league, and 4.8 yards-per-carry, good for sixth in the league.

While Detroit won’t be using a trio of backs, I would expect the Lions to post a thousand yard rusher in Kevin Smith. The rookie came up just short of the millennium mark finishing with 976 yards on 238 attempts for an average of 4.1 yards-per-carry. I would also expect to see the young man find the end zone more than eight times this year.

I should also point out, without going into all the stats, Linehan isn’t a one-hit wonder. He also turned Steven Jackson into a star and helped Marc Bulger become a star, even if just for one season.

Linehan has a long list of players who accumulated career stats under his tutelage. He has proven time and again, with a strong passing game and balanced running attack, he can put points on the board. That is something Detroit needs desperately after scoring only 36 total first half points in its first seven games last season. Expect a straight-forward running game and a field-stretching pass attack to keep defenses on their heels.

The Schwartz is with us in Detroit, hopefully for a long time. It appears as though he assembled a proven, experienced staff to build the careers of young players and provide quick success in the short term. But don’t expect the Lions to finish 8-8 this season or finish 0-16 again. Four wins should keep them away from the top of next year’s draft board and that’s something to be proud of in Detroit.

The Schwartz Factor in Detroit

Paul Cicchini — Wed, 27 May 2009 19:45:15 -0400

Much of the focus on the Detroit Lions has been centered on their personnel. Whether the players came from free agency or the draft, fans have been talking about Larry Foote and Matthew Stafford, among others.

But it wasn’t just the roster that received an overhaul. From the firing of Matt Millen, to the promotions of Tom Lewand and Martin Mayhew and eventual hiring of James “Shack” Harris, major changes to the front office were made.

Those moves and other changes paved the way for Jim Schwartz and his coaching staff. Among the additions to Schwartz’s staff are assistant head coach/defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham, offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, quarterbacks coach Jeff Horton, offensive Line coach George Yarno and defensive line coach Bob Karmelowicz.

While there are certainly some improvements on the roster, it will be up to the aforementioned group to get the most out of their players and put a winning strategy together every Sunday.

DL

Bob Karmelowicz has a large responsibility with Detroit this season. With 17 years of NFL experience, he could very well be the man who turns this defensive line into a bull-rushing sack machine. His most recent job was with the Houston Texans.

This is the man who welcomed Mario Williams into the NFL in 2006. In his rookie season, Williams tallied 4.5 sacks; in 2007, he notched 14 and had 12 in 2008. While Karmelowicz was in Houston, the team improved defensively and overall. While he was not the D-line coach in either of the last two seasons, he was special assistant to the head coach.

Before working for the Texans, Karmelowicz was with the Kansas City Chiefs for eight years as a D-line coach. Before K.C., he worked for the Washington Redskins and the Cincinnati Bengals. It was in 1975 Karmelowicz took his first collegiate job as offensive line coach at Arizona State.

With the exception of his last job in as a special assistant, Karmelowicz has more than 34 years of experience as a line coach. His job in Detroit will be molding Ikaika Alama-Francis and Cliff Avril into the pass-rushing ends who get sacks and create turnover opportunities for the secondary.

Karmelowicz has the collegiate experience to know how to handle young players. That said, with nearly 20 years in the NFL, he also knows how to handle egos and get production. The Lions would like to see one of their young players notch a few more sacks than last year’s leader, DeWayne White (6.5).

Defense

With the defensive line seemingly in good hands, the ultimate success of the defense lies in the hands of Gunther Cunningham. Logic would dictate that when you bring in a guy with nearly 40 years experience, you would be confident in his ability. However, I don’t have that confidence in Cunningham.

In 1995, when Cunningham began his first stint with the Chiefs, he had one of the top defenses in the league. The Chiefs were among the top five in points allowed, passing, rushing and total yards, as well as interceptions. I think the key point among those stats actually lie in the players on the roster. Among the best K.C. had to offer, Derrick Thomas, Dan Saleaumua and James Hasty.

Following the success in 1995, though, the Chiefs were never the same. They were, for the most part, in the middle of the league record-wise and their statistics reflected the same. Don’t get me wrong, middle-of-the-pack would be a huge improvement for the Lions, but for most Lions fans, the middle-of-the-pack is about the best they’ve seen.

OL

Before picking a quarterback and before addressing the defense, I would have addressed the offensive line in the draft. Baylor’s Jason Smith would have been my number one pick were I the Lions general manager. Alas, Detroit will make due with Dominic Raiola, Jeff Backus and Ephraim Salaam.

That said, it’s the job of George Yarno to bring the line together in the wake of comments made this week by former Lions OT Jonathon Scott. Scott called the linemen “chickens with their heads cut off” in an interview with Tyler Dunne of Buffalo Football Report.

Among the coaches I have and will address, Yarno has the least NFL experience. This will be his second season. Yarno was the assistant offensive line coach in Tampa Bay last season. The Buccaneers allowed 32 sacks last season. In comparison, Detroit allowed 52 sacks.

But while this is only Yarno’s second season in the NFL, he has 18 years of offensive line-coaching experience. He served 17 years in the college ranks for a variety of teams including LSU, Arizona State and two stints with Washington State.

Of the Lions 15 O-linemen on the depth chart, nine have five or fewer years of experience in the NFL. I think that bodes well for Yarno as he has plenty of experience with young players.

While the Bucs didn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher last year, both Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham rushed for 500-plus yards and Jeff Garcia threw for over 2,700 yards. Detroit didn’t have a thousand-yard rusher either, but rookie Kevin Smith came close with 976 yards. The passing game was weak. Dan Orlovsky threw for just over 1,600 yards in 10 games.

Much of Yarno’s success, however, also lies in the hands of two other men who I will also discuss: quarterbacks coach Jeff Horton and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. Much of the success of the offense will depend on the success of Kevin Smith. Smith thrived with zone blocking last season, but there are some who believe he will struggle with a more straightforward offense. I am not among those individuals.

QB

Whether the fans know his name or not, all eyes will be on Jeff Horton during the Schwartz Era. He will be the man responsible for developing Matt Stafford and monitoring the progress of Daunte Culpepper. It’s also likely he will decide whether Drew Stanton will remain with the Lions or if he will be replaced by another veteran arm.

Entering his 25th year, Horton has been all over the offensive side of the ball. He was a graduate assistant at Minnesota, he’s been an assistant head coach, a receivers coach, head coach and a quarterbacks coach in the college ranks. I am most impressed with his stint in Wisconsin.

From 1999-2005, Horton was the quarterbacks coach at UW. He coached Brooks Bollinger, Jim Sorgi and John Stocco. All three were successful as Badgers. I realize they are not NFL studs. In fact, Stocco isn’t in the league, Sorgi never plays and Bollinger is bouncing around the league. Two of the three were drafted and even Stocco played pro-ball in Italy.

His biggest project to date is Matt Stafford, but the young QB might be the best prospect Horton has put his hands on. He is also the biggest name and most expensive prospect to date. Stafford and his $72 million contract are now in Horton’s hands.

The Lions and Horton are hoping Detroit can make it through the season without having to throw Stafford into the fire too soon. Despite what Peyton Manning says (that Stafford should play this year), Stafford needs a year to learn the offense, the league and the Lions.

Offense

The man with the offensive plan is Scott Linehan. He made stars of Steven Jackson, Chris Chambers, Culpepper and Randy Moss. While not necessarily ensuring the success of the team, Linehan has all but assured offensive success.

Linehan has had success through the air and on the ground. While he started in Minnesota by using Culpepper and Moss, his last stop saw him send Jackson to the Pro Bowl. Other players who have seen big numbers under Linehan include Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce.

Between 2002 and 2004, Linehan orchestrated the Culpepper-Moss connection. Moss became the featured receiver in 2002 and over that season and the next, Moss caught more than 200 passes for nearly 3,000 yards while catching 24 touchdowns. In 2004, Culpepper posted career highs for passer rating of 110.9, a 69.2 completion percentage, 4,717 passing yards, 8.6 yards per play average and 39 touchdowns. Even Michael Bennett made a Pro Bowl under Linehan.

When Linehan moved on, he took a job in Miami for the 2005 season. During that year, Chambers made the Pro Bowl and finished with 82 catches for 1,118 yards and 11 touchdowns. Brown and Williams combined for 1,650 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

St. Louis was the destination where Linehan again made his mark, but this time with a quarterback and running back. People already knew about Bruce and Holt, so no one was surprised their success continued. The paired combined for more than 2,300 yards.

That same year, Marc Bulger passed for a career-best 4,301 yards. He also tossed 24 touchdowns.

But it was with Jackson that Linehan made his mark. Jackson ran 346 times in 2006 for 1,528 rushing yards, 105 first downs and 2,334 all-purpose yards. Jackson also had 13 touchdowns.

I think this bodes well for Culpepper, Calvin Johnson and Smith. Johnson has big play ability like Moss and Smith has proven to be reliable. The big question will be Culpepper. It’s not 2004, 2002 or even 2000. But, Culpepper did connect on three of his four touchdowns with Johnson last season.

The Schwartz

The biggest piece of the puzzle is coach Jim Schwartz. He is entering his 14th year in the league. The bulk of his coaching experience is in the NFL and, with the exception of his first job in Cleveland, Schwartz has always worked on the defensive side of the ball.

From 1996-98 Schwartz was a defensive assistant with the Baltimore Ravens before holding the same position with the Tennessee Titans in 1999. Schwartz worked his was up as a linebackers coach before taking over the defense in 2001.

To compare the Lions and Titans defenses is unfair to Detroit. The Titans were anchored the past few years by Albert Haynesworth, among others while the Lions appeared as though they were playing with an anchor attached.

Last season the Titans finished 13-3. The defense finished the season ranked in the top 10 in several defensive categories. They were third in defensive points allowed, seventh in total yards allowed, sixth in rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and third down percentage allowed and fifth in sacks.

The Lions, on the other hand, finished last in points allowed, last in yards allowed, last in rushing yards allowed, 27th in passing yards allowed and 29th in third down percentage. After looking at the stats, it’s no surprise Detroit finished 0-16.

Schwartz is going to use a 4-3 defense, which is similar to the Tampa Two, but one that is not based, in large part, on speed. Schwartz’s 4-3 will be more basic. He will expect pressure off the ends, linebackers hitting the gaps and corners jamming the receivers. And while the safeties will be based in a zone scheme, it’s likely the amount of field they have to cover will be smaller.

Don’t expect to see Detroit in the top ten in many, if any, defensive categories, but also do not expect them to be in the bottom five.

20 Questions For Jason Hanson

Paul Cicchini — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:42:41 -0400

Jason Hanson is entering his 18th NFL season this fall.

He has played in every Lions game since 1992, except one in 2005. That's 271 regular season games. Hanson has made five playoff appearances.

Hundreds of players have worn a Lions jersey during his tenure and Jim Schwartz is his eighth coach.

Few players show the dedication to one team as Hanson has shown to Detroit. The Lions have not shown Hanson the same dedication to the team as Detroit hasn't been to the playoffs since 1999 and has only 31 wins since 2001.

I start by asking Hanson why he has stayed in Detroit?

How many opportunities have you had to leave the Lions?

When were you closest to leaving? What changed your mind?

You are the Lions’ all-time scoring leader in points, as well as the all-time leader in field goals and extra points. You are only the sixth player in NFL history to connect on 400 career field goals. At Indianapolis last season you recorded your 41st 50+-yard field goal and set the all-time record for 50+-yard field goals in your career by surpassing Morten Andersen. You are also the first kicker in NFL history to go 8-for-8 on 50+-yard field goals in a single season. You turn 39 in less than a month,why are you still playing?

Do you care about any of those records?

Is there a record you would like to catch before you retire?

How long would you like to continue playing football?

Sept. 18, 2005 you missed your first and only professional game. Up to that point, you played 209 consecutive games. Why did you choose to sit out?

Brett Favre started 269 consecutive regular season games during his career, in some people's minds, to the detriment of the team on some occasions. Did that cross your mind when you sat against Chicago?

Coach Schwartz will be your eighth coach. Who was your favorite coach to play for and why?

Who was your least favorite coach and why?

I think the consensus would be that Barry Sanders was the best player you ever had as a teammate. If you don't agree, why, but if you do, then who was the second best teammate of yours?

What is your fondest memory of being a Lion?

Last season aside, what is your least memorable moment as a Lion?

Winning a Super Bowl seems to be among every football players' goals, that aside, what would you like to accomplish during your remaining years?

The Lions again drafted a quarterback this season. How would you rate the draft as executed by Schwartz, Tom Lewand, Martin Mayhew and James Harris? Did they address enough team needs?

Coming off an 0-16 season, what are your expectations for the 2009-10 season?

When you retire, how would you like to be remembered in Detroit?

When the Lions head to New Orleans to open the 2009-10 season Sept. 13, Hanson will make his 272nd appearance as a Detroit Lion.

No 0 This Year For Lions

Paul Cicchini — Mon, 18 May 2009 20:08:34 -0400

No, not at all. In fact, I peg the Lions for three wins this season.

Predictions are easy to make and even as I write "three wins," it could be less or it could be more, but not much either way. But, if you'd like a good reason to believe my prediction for this season, ask my brother: I called last year's 0-16 debacle.

The question has been asked before, which is more difficult - going 16-0 or 0-16? In back-to-back seasons NFL fans were treated to both. I say going 0-16 is tougher, so I'll firmly say the Lions will not lose every game this year.

Let's first examine the three-win prediction.

The Lions have a tough schedule ahead. They get the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, runner-up Arizona Cardinals and playoff qualifiers Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings. Among the aforementioned, the first three are the toughest opponents.

Beyond the Vikings, the Lions still must complete with the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. With quarterback upgrades in the Windy City and Frozen Tundra, that spells four losses for Detroit.

The Lions will also play all teams from the NFC West and the AFC North, as well as the New Orleans Saints and the Washington Redskins.

The three wins I see for Detroit occur in weeks two (at home against Minnesota), eight (at home against St. Louis) and 13 (at Cincinnati). The combined 2008 record of the opponents is 16-31-1. That doesn't sound like a stretch, but I did leave out the 4-12 Seattle Seahawks and the 4-12 Cleveland Browns.

Dan Orlovsky made his first start as a Lion when he took the field in Minnesota last year in week five. The Vikes came away with a 12-10 win. When the Lions hosted the Vikes in week 13, Culpepper was making his fifth start for Detroit and the Lions lost a 20-16 decision.

When the Lions host Minnesota in week two, Culpepper will be the starter, likely lining up against Tavaris Jackson. The Lions will be coming off a loss after visiting New Orleans in week one. With a reliable Culpepper in the backfield, the Lions will edge the run-happy Vikings by nullifying their ground attack with the help of Larry Foote. The Lions will edge the Vikes for their first regular-season home win since Dec. 23, 2007.

In week eight, the Lions will host 2008's 2-14 St. Louis Rams. Right now, the Rams are a mess. They have four quarterbacks on the roster and the depth chart is headlined by Marc Bulger. They don't have a number one receiver and their top running back, Steven Jackson, is injury prone.

By week eight, they could have already down-graded at QB to Kyle Boller or even Brock Berlin. Brian Leonard or Antonio Pittman could be the starting running back and your guess is as good as mine when it comes to starting receivers.

The only team to allow more points than the Lions last season was the Rams and St. Louis was 28th in yards allowed. Just like the Lions won't win many games in 2009, neither will the Rams, but this one will end in Detroit's favor, especially at home.

Detroit's final win of the season will come against 2008's 4-11-1 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are the Lions in the AFC, but with more recent success. However, it's difficult to dispute they're on the slide.

They still rely on the oft injured Carson Palmer behind center. In fact, they are so invested in Palmer, his backup is J.T. O'Sullivan - an ex-Lion. Behind Palmer is Cedric Benson, who likes his problems off the field. Benson hasn't been the same since Super Bowl XLI when he injured his knee. If those aren't enough problems, Chris Henry and Chad Ochocinco are still on the roster.

The Bengals didn't do enough in the offseason to bolster their defense to challenge Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith. Culpepper is good enough to get CJ the ball and that will set up the run attack. Detroit's defense should be solid enough by week 13 to stop Palmer and Benson.

My realistic expectation is that Detroit finishes the regular season 3-13.

If, however, things work out in the best possible manner for the Lions, they will finish the regular season 6-10. Included among those wins are the aforementioned Bengals, Rams and Vikings. If they won six games, though, they would also win in Minnesota and Seattle and when they host Cleveland.

Because I've already covered Minnesota, there's no reason to re-hash that scenario, so we'll focus on Seattle.

When the 2009-10 season kicks off, Seattle will be four years removed from its Super Bowl season. In the years following the Super Bowl, Seattle went 9-7, 10-6 and 4-12. They finished the 2005 season 13-3.

There's no doubt they've been on a slide as they've watched Matt Hasselbeck get older and suffer injuries. Hasselbeck only played seven games last year and has only played in 35 of 48 games over the last three years. Even with the addition of T.J. Houshmanzadeh, I expect the offense to struggle due in large part to a weak running game.

The running game is in question without Shaun Alexander as Julius Jones looks to fill shoes Alexander left vacant two seasons ago. Jones played in 15 games for the 'Hawks last season and amassed 698 yards with two touchdowns. He also lost two fumbles.

Counting this game as a win initially would have been easier if the Lions had them at home, but Qwest is a difficult place to play. Predicting a Lions road win is tough considering their last win away from Ford Field came Oct. 28, 2007 in Chicago.

The Lions sixth win, although not in order, would come against the Cleveland Browns. Before the 2008-09 season got underway, Cleveland was the media darling, playoff bound after their 2007-08 success. It was believed the talent quad featuring Braylon Edwards, Jamal Lewis, Kellen Winslow and quarterback Derek Anderson would lead the team far into the playoffs.

It didn't take long, though, to see the dysfunctional Browns were destined for a whole lot of nothing. They started 0-3 and finished 4-12.

The downfall was led by Anderson who played in 10 games, threw nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. In the previous season, Anderson played in all 16 games, threw 29 TDs and 19 Int. The question now is who will be at the helm for the '09 Browns, Anderson or Brady Quinn?

With Winslow gone, the QB position in flux, a disgruntled Edwards and an aging Lewis, it would be easy to say this is a win for Detroit, but I do expect the Browns to be tested early by the AFC North, so they will be a formidable foe. But in the best case scenario, the Lions will get the win.

A worst case scenario would see the Lions losing all 16 games again, but as I said before going 0-16 is the most difficult task, even for the worst team. Therefore, I say the realistic worst-case scenario for Detroit has them winning one game. That win would come at home against St. Louis.

There is no doubt Detroit is a team in transition. I wouldn't say they are rebuilding because that's a running joke since 1957. The team has some new players, with a new coaching staff. Don't forget, the Miami Dolphins finished 2008 1-15, but then recovered to go 11-5, tops in the AFC East.

They even hosted a playoff game. The NFL, despite its efforts to distance itself from gambling, is a crap-shoot.

Foote Fills Gap, But Not Enough, Part Two

Paul Cicchini — Fri, 08 May 2009 19:24:47 -0400

The 0-16 Detroit Lions roster shuffle continues. In Thursday's article, I discussed the offensive side of the football, saving today's focus for defense. However, I should take a moment to comment on the Lions most recent move, which involves Keary Colbert. I'll recap Thursday's receiver section.

WR, cont.

The Lions have 11 receivers listed on the depth chart. Let's assume Detroit keeps five on their game-day roster. Calvin Johnson is a lock. The others include Ronald Curry and Derrick Williams, who were picked up via free agency and the draft respectively. Let's say that's three.

As I said, don't expect to see Aaron Brown at running back. He is 6'1" and 196 pounds. Probably not the ideal size for a between-the-tackles runner. He could challenge Cason for the third-down back spot, but more likely than not, he was taken to beef up the receiving corps. That's four.

Bryant Johnson, another free agent, makes five. The sixth spot, in my opinion is wide open*, but the Lions don't necessarily need to hit the free agent pool again. There is a slew of receivers on the market, but many have questions, included, but not limited to age, off-field problems and questionable skills. If the Lions wanted a vet, they could look at Reggie Williams. He has six years in the league and tons of experience. I think the correct leadership, now in Detroit, could screw his head on straight and make him a stud.

*I would now say the sixth spot is Colbert's. Unless the Lions go in a different direction when it comes to Johnson, or even if they cut Brown, or shuffle players between the practice squad and game-day roster, I would now say they will not pursue a free agent. The last thing they need is a stable of receivers on the payroll.

Now on to the good stuff, meaning defense, which from what I've heard, wins championships.

Detroit has seven ends and five tackles on the depth chart. Under Rod Marinelli, the Lions played a Tampa 2 defense. This season it looks like Detroit will play a 4-3 defense again, but with elements of the 3-4. Playing in the 4-3 means the Lions needed Larry Foote and his role as middle linebacker becomes more important. But there will be more on that later.

Among the seven ends, I think Cliff Avril and Jared DeVries are the top two. Some might throw Ikaika Alama-Francis in the mix, but I think putting him in a rotation would be most beneficial. A huge key on the line this year will be the play of DeWayne White.

White was a Lions starter in 2007, but didn't see the same action in 2008. He will be looking to make his mark this year, which is good because the Lions will need all they can get off the ends. He had a career-high 6.5 sacks in '07, but he will need to build on that. If he, Avril and Francis can tally between seven and nine sacks each, the line will be solid.

When it comes to the free agent pool at the DE spot, there isn't much to be thrilled about. If it were five years ago, it would be great with names like Vonnie Holliday and Jason Taylor. If there is one guy I would work out, it's Kevin Carter. He is a very experienced veteran with 15 years in the league. If his work out went well, he could be a good veteran addition to the defense.

Among the six defense tackles on the roster are rookies Sammie Hill and John Gill. At 345 pounds, recent addition Grady Jackson is the largest man-in-the-middle, but he is also the oldest at 36. And while Jackson has the most NFL experience, Chuck Darby has the most Lions experience as he started 15 games in 2008.

Unfortunately for Detroit, there is just about nothing available at this position. Coach Jim Schwartz is going to rely heavily on Jackson to mentor Hill, Gill and second-year men Landon Cohen and Andre Fluellen. Chuck Darby will also need to be a positive influence on the squad.

To start, they only need three names. Those are easy. Playing outside linebacker Ernie Sims, on the inside, Foote, and on the opposite side will be 10-year veteran Julian Peterson. The player who must have a huge impact off the bench is Jordon Dizon.

Dizon was probably picked a little too soon by Millen in 2008. He never started and only played in 12 games. He's been clocked at 4.59 in the 40-yard dash, so he has good speed, but he wasn't the impact player he should have been considering where he was selected.

One man I am eager to see hit the field is rookie Zach Follett. He is aggressive, a big hitter and notched 10.5 sacks his senior year at California. I can see him starting early on special teams where he can fly down the field and flatten return men and then earning some time in the Lions linebacker rotation.

I recognize the Lions allowed more than 170 rushing yards per game last year, but I think they may have done enough to shore up their second line of defense. I was not among those who wanted Aaron Curry, so I wasn't disappointed we didn't take him. Foote, I think, solidifies the linebackers.

The secondary is the Lions biggest weakness. They don't have a shutdown corner or a knock-your-lights-out safety. They also don't have any more options in free agency. Their biggest secondary signing was Phillip Buchanon, whose best years might be behind him.

Recent signee Eric King, free agent from Tennessee Titans, didn't record an interception last season. Anthony Henry, who Detroit acquired via trade with Dallas, started 15 games for the Cowboys secondary and recorded only one pick last year. Lions corners in the 2008 season who did not record an interception include Chris Roberson, Ramzee Robinson, Keith Smith and Dexter Wynn.

One guy I would look at to add a solid athlete to the secondary is Ricky Manning, Jr. He might be undersized, but in six years, basically five where he played in at least 15 games, he has 14 interceptions. He was on a bad St. Louis team last year, and while things were obviously not better in Detroit, I think the Lions front seven could give Manning some chances to steal some balls this season. If I were Schwartz, I would bring him in and run him around to see what he has left.

The last line of defense, and the last position to be covered, is the safety position. I'm not sure there is a worse safety lineup that Detroit's. Five men listed, and the man with the most professional experience is Stuart Schweigert. He's not a bad player, but in four years in Oakland, before his last in Detroit, he only recorded four picks.

Four years ago, the Lions picked Daniel Bullocks out of Nebraska. They had high hopes for the hard-hitting young man, but injuries have held him back. He has shown flashes, but he will have to really prove himself this season if he expects to make it in the league. He has one pick in two seasons.

When it comes to Louis Delmas, the second-biggest surprise (Pettigrew) of the Lions draft, his contributions need to be big, frequent and effective. The Lions have been lacking a hard-hitter since the days of Bennie Blades and William White. Blades was last on the Lions roster in 1996 and White in 1993. If Rey Maualuga proves to be a Chris Spielman-type linebacker, or better, it will be another big Detroit draft-day miss.

One guy I would take a long, hard look at is Mike Brown. Yes, he is 31, does have 10 years in the league, but he does have big-game experience and has proven to be athletic. However, the Lions could use a smart player deep in the secondary with good eyes and strong football smarts.

Still building

There is no dout the Lions are a work in progress. They are basically stuck with their current roster. It's too late in free agency to get a steal and there isn't much depth at any position. With a good mix of veteran leadership and youth, Coach Schwartz will have his hands full in the NFC North. Just getting the Lions to compete for 60 minutes of all 16 games will be a huge accomplishment for the rookie head coach.

Foote Fills Gap, But Not Enough

Paul Cicchini — Thu, 07 May 2009 15:44:18 -0400

0-16. By the looks of it, you might think overhaul for the Detroit Lions, but in a down economy where players still demand huge salaries and you have the first pick in the draft, you're already in a hole.

Going into the draft, the Lions had many needs: Quarterback, linebacker, offensive and defensive line, and believe it or not, receiver. Remember, it was only at the start of the 2008-09 season Detroit had 16 receivers on its payroll. The first need the Lions addressed, as we all know, quarterback.

On the topic of the number one draft pick, we can start by looking at the quarterback situation. According to the Lions' current depth chart, Daunte Culpepper is at the top, then Matthew Stafford and finally Drew Stanton.

Barring Stafford looking ridiculously amazing in the preseason, he will be the backup. The major question mark is Drew Stanton. The third year (by contract) is truly entering his second year after he was sidelined by a knee injury during his rookie campaign.

Many fans were hoping the home-towner would play the role of hero for the lowly Lions. Alas, he is again third-string, but now faces being cut. However, Stanton will only be cut if the Lions feel the need to get a veteran backup. The good news for Stanton is that a good veteran backup doesn't exist in free agency and the Lions will not be pulling a trade for that position.

According to NFL.com, there are 14 free agent quarterbacks with no 2009 team. The most experienced is Brad Johnson at 17 seasons. That might be too much experience. The least experienced QB without a team is Drew Henson. He is out because the Lions put him on the market.

If Detroit really wants a guy with game experience, and they have to cut Stanton, I say go for J.P. Losman. He has five years in the league with Buffalo. His accuracy is about 60 percent, which isn't great, but if there was anything great about him, he wouldn't be without a team in mid-May. The Lions aren't looking for Matt Cassell, they just want someone to challenge Stafford.

The Lions depth chart currently has eight players listed at the running back position, which includes fullbacks. If there are two "locks" at running back, they would be Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris, who the Lions signed early in free agency. Aveion Cason looks like the third-down back again. A battle will be held at fullback among Jon Bradley, Jerome Felton and Terrelle Smith. That leaves rookie Aaron Brown and Allen Ervin. I wouldn't expect to see Ervin on the opening-day roster and don't expect Brown at RB.

Bryant Johnson, another free agent, makes five. The sixth spot, in my opinion is wide open, but the Lions don't necessarily need to hit the free agent pool again. There is a slew of receivers on the market, but many have questions, included, but not limited to age, off-field problems and questionable skills. If the Lions wanted a vet, they could look at Reggie Williams. He has six years in the league and tons of experience. I think the correct leadership, now in Detroit, could screw his head on straight and make him a stud.

This position has little doubt. Brandon Pettigrew is in. Casey FitzSimmons, in his seventh year, has been reliable. There's no need to his free agency for this position. In the third slot, the battle will be waged among rookie Dan Gronkowski, Will Heller and Jake Nordin.

This position, going into the draft, was among three of what appeared to be ultra-high needs. Beyond Stafford and linebacker Aaron Curry, tackle Jason Smith was at the top of many draft boards. Smith went number two overall to the St. Louis Rams.

The Lions have three centers, five guards and seven tackles listed on the depth chart, although some are still testing the free agent water. The O-line presents some problems. One, the Lions haven't had a very good, injury-free, or consistent quintet. It's also a difficult position to address in free agency because teams tend to lock up their reliable players and by the time the player is released or becomes unrestricted, he has 12-plus years experience.

When it comes to that pool of players, there is a limited number of guys I like. At the tackle spot, I do like two men from the Black and Blue division. Chicago free agent Terrence Metcalf and Green Bay free agent Mark Tauscher. The recently released Levi Jones (Cincinnati) might be another good addition.

The guard pool is very shallow. If Detroit has anyone under consideration, I might suggest Tyson Clabo. He is 6'6" 332. He has the size to play both guard and tackle and he's even delivered snaps.

Center is the one spot I think the Lions have stability. Dominic Raoila is a fiery leader who is also reliable. In his ninth season, he has been a Lion his entire career.

Ok, so maybe kicker, punter and long snapper are also locks. Those spots are filled by Jason Hanson, Nick Harris and Don Muhlbach respectively.

Join me tomorrow as I take on the Lions' needs on defense.