Bleacher Report - Articles by Beyond the Arc Basketball

Behind the Arc: Race to the MVP Week 2

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:08:26 -0500

Welcome back to yet another exciting Race to the MVP, presented to you by Beyond the Arc Basketball.

I'd like to talk about the Milwaukee Bucks, and more importantly, the player everyone has their eyes on: Brandon Jennings. The kid is still rolling through the league with a head of steam, leading this underdog Bucks to the best record in the Central Division.

Jennings is leading all rookies with just under 25 points per game to go along with nearly six assists and five rebounds per game. On top of that, he's shooting a respectable 47.7 percent from the field and is connecting on over half of his three-point attempts, proving wrong the critics who said the range on his shot was weak.

However, questions still linger as to whether the Bucks can keep it up and if Jennings can keep playing at a high level.

A few issues stand in their way. First of all, will Jennings hit the rookie wall? It's a common fear for first-year players who have never played this many games in a season before. Can Jennings’ body handle the rigors of the NBA after playing 40 or 50 games? Only time will tell if Jennings can fight fatigue better than his fellow freshmen.

Look out! The Thunder are playing solid basketball right now, and Kevin Durant is on the verge of getting some MVP consideration.

The kid impresses the hell out of me. He's an excellent shooter, but his shot really isn't falling right now—yet he is still dropping in 27 a game, getting to the line, and getting it done. I think he has a great unselfish attitude, can be a good leader, and will only get better. His numbers are already elite, and I believe he is on the edge of becoming a true superstar. You OKC fans have got something special, so enjoy it.

I want to dedicate a small portion of my time to a former MVP and a sure Hall of Famer, Allen Iverson. He needs to realize the league is moving away from the one-man show offense.

This is not a league full of teams relying on one player to do everything. Say what you like, but even LeBron James relies on his teammates to score, hence his high assist averages.

Allen has all the talent in the world but is too accustomed to being the star of the team. I would love to see him end his career on a good note, preferably signing with a title contender to assure him a ring in his career. The future of this once great superstar looks very dark.

Well that does it for my weekly rant, now onto the list.

1. Kobe Bryant: Lakers (10-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
12 38.1 30.2 5.2 2.8 3.3 0.2 .474 .192 .861
Last Week's Rank—1

The recharged Los Angeles Lakers powered by their captain, Kobe Bryant, are looking great. With a healthy Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, this offense looks dominant, scoring from all cylinders—but that has not stopped Kobe from playing at a superstar level. He's leading the league in scoring, shooting a respectable percentage from the field, and is making good decisions on the floor.

2. Joe Johnson: Hawks (10-2)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
12 37.9 23.6 5.3 4.7 0.8 0.1 .464 .345 .870
Last Week's Rank—N/A

The most underrated player in the league will soon be known as a sure MVP candidate if he keeps playing like this. What hasn't he done? He's scoring at will, shooting at an extremely efficient percent from the field, making plays for his teammates, and is playing like a true leader. The Hawks are slowly sliding into the company of the Eastern Conference's elite.

3. Steve Nash: Suns (10-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
13 33.3 16.8 2.6 11.8 0.2 0.2 .506 .440 .929
Last Week's Rank—2
Nash remains the best point guard in the game currently due to Chris Paul's injury. His impressive numbers still remain afloat, the Suns are still amongst the best teams in the league, and Nash is surely a huge part of it. He's playing at such a high level, and, just a few days ago against Houston, he exploded for 16 assists, keeping his assist averages at the top of the league.

4. Dirk Nowitzki: Mavericks (9-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
12 38.5 27.3 9.3 2.6 1.1 1.6 .447 .364 .902
Last Week's Rank—N/A
This past week proves why Dirk has not lost a step in his game since winning the MVP title a few years ago. He's willing to give up shots and save a bit of energy for important stretches of games. Nowitzki is playing the best basketball of his life right now, and this past week he was incredible—because of intangibles, not because of his box scores. His effort on defense has drastically improved, almost to the point where he is not considered a one-sided player.

5. Carmelo Anthony: Nuggets (8-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
11 35.6 29.9 5.8 3.0 1.6 0.4 .468 .360 .847
Last Week's Rank—6
Melo has been a beast so far to start off the season. Sure, his season-opening dunk over Milsap left us all in awe, not to mention the 19 points in the fourth quarter during the game against Portland to seal the deal. However, he continues to get better on D, rebounds at a solid rate, averages three assists per game, and, like George Karl and Chauncey Billups have said, he's become a more mature team leader.

6. LeBron James: Cavaliers (8-4)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
12 37.8 28.3 6.6 8.1 1.7 0.8 .516 .364 .774
Last Week's Rank—5
The highly anticipated return of LeBron James to the top of this list will have to wait...for another week at the very least. He's putting up MVP numbers, his assist averages for a SF are unprecedented, and, most importantly, he's still shooting with accuracy. He's evolving into the complete player we all thought he would be, but the Cavaliers have yet to back him up. The Delonte West saga is still continuing as he remains in and out of the line up, Shaq has been injured, and most of his role players are not consistently playing up to standards.

7. Dwyane Wade: Heat (7-4)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
11 38.6 27.6 4.8 5.2 2.1 1.2 .431 .267 .772
Last Week's Rank—3
Miami has lost two out of the last three games and are looking terrible on defense. Luckily, Dwyane Wade managed to hit a spectacular three-pointer to keep the Nets winless, something that is very routine down in Miami. Wade is running the show, and that's exactly what a MVP does.

8. Brandon Roy: Blazers (9-4)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
13 36.7 20.3 4.8 5.1 0.3 0.2 .448 .370 .830
Last Week's Rank—7
To a degree, he hasn't been playing up to our normal expectations. He seems less confident on his drives right now, and, at times, I sense he's struggling with whether to take over or to defer to others. The guy can still have a slow start, and then you'll look up at the board and three out of four times he'll have 16 points, three rebounds, and four assists. Sooner or later, the team is going to gel completely, or he'll just decide to take over more often. Nothing to worry about here.

9. Paul Pierce: Celtics (9-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
12 34.5 18.4 4.8 3.9 1.2 0.3 .511 .478 .809
Last Week's Rank—4
His numbers still remain above average, and his shooting is still stellar, but the Celtics are dropping. They haven't looked fresh out there—the Celtics are doing just what most people thought...aging. There's the lazy Sheed we all know and the OLD Big Three. Right now—and it's early—Rondo and Pierce look like the Big Two.

10. Brandon Jennings: Bucks (6-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
9 34.8 24.8 5.8 4.7 1.1 0.2 .477 .558 .786
Last Week's Rank—8
How can a rookie be on this list for two weeks running? It's simple: When that rookie explodes for 55 points, the highest point total in a game this season, you know he deserves it. This kid is just unbelievable: His shooting is great, his maturity on the court is above that of a sophomore, and his decision-making and overall court presence is phenomenal.

http://btabasketball.com/articles/bta-race-to-mvp-week-2/

Beyond the Arc: What About Chris Bosh?

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:58:21 -0500

As we approach our 10th game in this young NBA season, it’s no surprise that the talks of the upcoming 2010 offseason are already swirling.

You can’t come across a message board or a blog that doesn’t have five or six topics about where LeBron, Wade, Joe Johnson, and company will end up, or how much cap space certain teams have.

One of those impending free agents, though, is a guy some might consider to be in the “second tier” in terms of player quality, and that is Chris Bosh.

There are a lot of quality teams in this league, both good and bad, that could use a big man as versatile as Bosh; not that he’s the guy you sign to lead you to a title, but he is a guy you put next to another solid piece on your way to a title, and he is deserving of near max contract money (which means he will get max contract money).

Now, let's take a look at Bosh’s status as a player, his team's status, and what his options will be for the summer of 2010.

What Has He Done?

Bosh, like I alluded to earlier, is a player who will almost always fall in the categories of “second tier” or “complimentary player.” This is to say that he isn’t on the level of your true superstars like LeBron or Dwyane Wade, or even on the level of other big men such as Tim Duncan or Dirk Nowitzki.

However, this does not mean that Bosh isn’t a great player in his own right, and I think he gets a little under appreciated around the league.

Bosh is a player who has consistently put up 20 and 10 seasons, with the 20 sometimes going a little higher, and the 10 sometimes a little lower, but you get the gist.

He’s a versatile, lanky offensive player who runs the floor like a gazelle and has absolutely perfected the 18-foot jumper; he can attack the rim like a guard, and even occasionally back you down (although he doesn’t do this enough).

Another thing about Bosh is he is a very efficient player, never taking more than 16 field goal attempts a game for his career, en route to posting often scintillating True Shooting percentages that hover around 60.

His weaknesses lie in both his defense and his ability in the clutch; his man-to-man defense has vastly improved since his rookie year, but he too often comes late on pick and rolls and this kills him, and there have been numerous occasions where Toronto fans have blasted him for not being able to take the final shot of a game.

All this being said, Bosh is a three-time All-Star and perennial 20/10 power forward in this league, and those are a hot commodity.

What is He Doing?

Of course, all his career accomplishments are for naught when talking about this season, as this is the year where it will determine not only where he stands, but where the Raptors stand as a team.

Through the first 11 games, Bosh is playing like a mad man; he’s averaging 26 points and 12 boards on 50 percent shooting, and his added bulk is really paying off.

He appears to be doing everything in his power to will the team to victory, with mixed success so far, as the Raptors are muddling along at 5-6 heading into tonight’s contest in Utah.

General manager Bryan Colangelo went all out this off-season, dealing out large contracts to various players, including Hedo Turkoglu, Jarrett Jack, and extending centre Andrea Bargnani to the tune of 10 million per, in hopes to create a winning team to persuade Bosh to stick around.

The jury is still out, of course, on whether this will work or not, but one thing is for sure, Bosh is showcasing his talents to the league at a time when everyone is watching, and if the Raptors don’t pick it up, this could be very bad news for Toronto fans.

What Will He Do?

All right, so here comes the big question: Where does Chris Bosh sign in the 2010 off-season?

There are, if my research is correct, four teams that will have enough cap space to offer Bosh the max contract he undoubtedly desires, and they are Miami, Chicago, New Jersey, and New York.

That being said, the Raptors themselves have a fair amount of cap space and would be able to re-sign Bosh this off-season should they (or he) desire.

Chicago, too me, seems like an interesting proposition for Bosh; there, he becomes the first option without question, and gets paired with an incredible young talent at point guard in Derrick Rose, and surrounded by several above-average types in John Salmons, Luol Deng, and Kirk Hinrich.

Would this core be any better off than the Raptors right now? Maybe slightly, but I really don’t think it’s too much of a gap to make Bosh want to sign there.

As for Miami, there is the always enticing option of playing with megastar Dwyane Wade, and a Bosh/Wade combination would definitely become a contender in the Eastern Conference, considering the remarkable defensive team Miami has put around Wade this year.

With another scoring option in Michael Beasley, and a nice young point guard in Mario Chalmers, I believe Miami is the best option for Bosh this offseason; and the weather isn’t too shabby, either.

When talking about New York and New Jersey, you have two teams with almost infinite cap space that are in the ultimate rebuilding mode right now.

The Nets have two solid pieces in place at point guard and at centre, while the Knicks are putting all there proverbial eggs into one large basket at this point, and I would have to write them off as a possible destination for Bosh, as there simply isn’t enough there to entice Bosh that he’d be going to a winning franchise.

New Jersey is a more interesting option, and a threesome of Devin Harris/Chris Bosh/Brook Lopez certainly does look daunting. I would chalk up New Jersey as the second best option for Bosh this off-season.

Now, looking at his own team, the Toronto Raptors. They have a solid enough core, with Jose Calderon at point, Hedo Turkoglu on the wings and Andrea Bargnani up front, to go along with some decent depth and a promising rookie in Demar Derozan.

All of these players will be there next season, so it’s really up to Bosh to determine if these are the guys he wants to play with for the next 5 to 10 years; the Raptors likely won’t win a championship anytime soon, so I wouldn’t blame Bosh if he bolted for greener pastures, even if the title hopes are the same, just to try something new.

All in all, it’s too early in this season to truly tell which teams are best marketed for a player like Bosh, but some certainly raise more of an eyebrow than others.

Toronto would miss Bosh dearly, and unfortunately, I get the feeling that he’s not particularly happy here anymore, even if we do make the playoffs.

He’s constantly quoted saying things like “I want to play for a contender,” which is fine, but it also shows he isn’t willing to grab the team by the collar and lift them to contender status. Don’t be surprised if you see Bosh in a different coloured jersey by the time next season rolls around.

http://btabasketball.com/articles/what-about-chris-bosh/

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The Atlanta Hawks Are Soaring

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 21:25:36 -0500

ESPN and NBA.com have both released their weekly power rankings and if someone had been in a coma since 2003 or so, the number one team would’ve come as quite a shock (actually, it probably comes as quite a shock to anyone who has yet to really pay attention to the NBA this season too).

The Atlanta Hawks are ranked No. 1 in each poll. What’s the bigger shock though is that it’s not a misprint and they actually deserve the ranking at this point in the season.

Going into the season, it seemed like the Hawks only marginally improved on what they had last season. They upgraded slightly on the bench by replacing Flip Murray with Jamal Crawford and they signed Joe Smith to fill the veteran role off the bench (which they did not have last season or the season before that).

They’re about the same defensively as they were last season, which is to say, a rather underappreciated defensive team that’s a little small up front. Offensively, they’re about the same as last season, albeit a bit more efficient (at least statistically, they’re running the offense much better than they were last season).

All of the changes for the Hawks have been relatively minor, but for a team like this, a number of minor changes can mean the world.

It all starts though with the player who has usurped the mantle of best player on the team, Josh Smith. The minor change he made this season is only minor in the box score and is a major shift in the player’s mindset (and a sign a growth that seemed like a distant).

This season Smith decided to stop shooting threes. It seems what started this trend was last season, after every three point attempt, the Hawks fans would boo Smith regardless of the outcome of the shot. Over the first 11 games, Smith has yet to attempt a three pointer and this had something of a snowball effect on the rest of his game.

His defense is more fundamentally sound and not just based around getting blocks and steals, but actually staying in front of his man. And on offense, he’s limiting his turnovers and not making boneheaded plays. In essence, by taking the three point shot out of his repertoire, he’s just playing a smarter game and has been the key to the Hawks currently holding court as the best team in the league.

Josh Smith evolution into basketball maturity isn’t the only reason for the Hawks improvement. Al Horford has leapfrogged Mike Bibby and Marvin Williams has the third option in the Hawks starting lineup (Williams for the most part has absolutely disappeared on offense).

This is rather huge for the Hawks even if Horford’s improvement has been rather slight. It’s not so much his number that have his improved but he’s becoming more aggressive inside and giving the Hawks an interior presence on offense that they were missing the last two seasons.

Of course it would be hard to overlook the addition of Jamal Crawford. When they traded for him during the offseason, the move was treated as a big deal for about five second before being forgotten about because of moves that involved Rasheed Wallace, Ron Artest, Richard Jefferson, and Shaq.

But it’s easy to argue that Crawford has been just as big an addition as any of those admittedly bigger names. Crawford has always had the stigma of being a gunner who never helped his team win (a stigma for all intents and purposes proved to be true). He’d never been to the playoffs in his entire career, almost all of it as a starter.

But when you take him out of the starting line-up, limit his minutes, and embrace his gunner tendencies, all of sudden he becomes a major asset coming off the bench. He gives the second unit more scoring punch than they had with Flip Murray last season, meaning that the first unit doesn’t have to kill themselves when they take a breather (or in some cases last season, if they take a breather).

None of this really matters though if Joe Johnson didn’t remain the All Star caliber rock that he has been the last few seasons. Since joining the Hawks Joe Johnson has been consistently solid, playing at the same level regardless of how good the Hawks have been. All of these elements give a fair explanation why the Hawks have made a dramatic change from last season without changing much of anything.

Other Notes:

While the Hawks maybe a surprising best team currently in the NBA, the Bucks have to be considered the most surprising. Looking at their roster now in a vacuum and without context of what they’ve done this season, they have one legitimate starter on their roster at the moment with Michael Redd hurt and that’s Andrew Bogut.

The rest of their rotation consists of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Ridnour, Hakeem Warrick, Charlie Bell, Carlos Delfino, and Brandon Jennings. Looking at that group, there isn’t a traditional big man (outside of Bogut) or scoring swing player.

It helps that Brandon Jennings has broken out as a star and is carrying the team offensively right now (it’ll be curious to see if he can continue to build off of his record setting scoring output against the Warriors), but the real reason for the Bucks looking like a possible playoff contender is the embracing of Skiles defensive philosophy, right now ranking fifth overall in defensive rating.

The Nuggets have seemed to have turned the corner from being a team concentrating on tough guy posturing to a team that is actually tough.

Their utter beatdown of the Lakers last Friday was eye opening. And they did most of it by pushing around the Lakers and just locking them down defensively, holding the Lakers to a franchise low 23 points in the second half (including holding Kobe Bryant to zero points in that span). What remains to be seen though is if they can keep up this kind of intensity with any kind of consistency.

Early on this season they looked like a true title contender but their concentration has wavered since their opening few games. So an eye will be kept on them to see if they only get up for “big games” and then play down to lesser opponents, but as it stands now, they honestly look like they could make a serious run.

The Lakers on the other hand might have some major concerns lining up for them. They clearly miss Pau Gasol, not only for the elite level skills he provides but for the balance he provides to the roster. Without Gasol in the lineup the Lakers are forced to start Lamar Odom which really does a number on their bench.

Without Odom the bench is absolutely awful, relying on the likes of Sasha Vuajcic, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, and Shannon Brown to carry the offensive load (including Mbenga and Josh Powell, do any of those six break any of other “elite” teams’ rotations?).

Add that to the fact that the Lakers have been playing sloppy in general and that Kobe has decided to shoot, shoot, and shoot some more, the Lakers need Gasol back sooner rather than later (I haven’t been able to get a word on his time table, Jackson said something about Christmas, but I wasn’t sure he was joking or not).

Beyond the Arc's Race to the MVP

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 02:53:14 -0500

In this edition of Beyond the Arc's Race to the MVP, I'd like to focus your attention on Steve Nash. Ever so often you have that savvy league veteran who never appears to be on the decline. Last year, it seemed pretty evident Nash was not that player, but he has certainly opened up some eyes this year, as he's off to a hot start with the Suns who are rolling right along with the second best record in the league.

Another interesting topic of concern are the Milwaukee Bucks led by their rookie sensation, Brandon Jennings. He's playing like a true leader and was not afraid to step up when Redd went down with his injury. But one thing that can't be overlooked is that Scott Skiles has a proven record of getting the most out of journeymen and young players. He took a Bulls team that hadn't won more than 30 games in eight years and got them 47 wins in his first full season coaching them. The team didn't go under .500 until he was fired in a year that involved a lot of bad attitudes and his players' unwillingness to listen, among other troubles.

I'm sure the Bucks offense will get better when Redd comes back because they do struggle to score when they don't go to Bogut or Jennings, but the schedule will get more challenging as well.

The regulars, Kobe, LeBron and Wade look poised to have another great year and should remain at the top of the race. It's no secret when you hear people say they are the best of the best. But joining those three is Carmelo Anthony, someone ready to make his case as the league's elite. Entering his seventh year in the league, Melo's out to prove why he's as good as they come, averaging career highs in most major statistical categories.

With no further adieu, allow me to introduce to you this week's edition of Race to the MVP brought to you by BTA Basketball.

1. Kobe Bryant, Lakers (7-1)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
8 38.5 33.0 5.5 2.8 2.2 0.2 .500 .200 .840

Last Week's Rank—3
Kobe's playing like he did in 2005, but the only difference is his intelligence with the ball. He's methodical in his attack, picks his spots and attacks any defensive flaw. It's truly amazing to watch. Granted, his game against Denver wasn't all that great, but he has played great basketball the past few weeks and fully deserves to be on top of this week's MVP race.

2. Steve Nash, Suns (8-2)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
10 32.3 17.1 2.4 11.8 0.1 0.3 .539 .500 .931

Last Week's Rank—6
Nash is playing the best basketball we've seen him play in a long time. Put the ball back in Nash's hands and speed up the tempo, and all of a sudden he's looking like the Nash of old (or rather the Nash of his MVP seasons). As it stands, he's poised to be only the fourth player in NBA history to notch five 10-plus assist seasons. With already two 20-point/20-assist games, Nash has inserted himself into the second best point guard spot with a vengeance.

3. Dwyane Wade, Heat (6-2)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
8 38.1 30.6 4.1 4.9 1.6 0.9 .450 .258 .783

Last Week's Rank—4
What hasn't The Flash done to not put him in the top three of this week's MVP Race? He's hit game-winners, he's throwing down monsterous dunks, and he's putting up tremendous numbers. Not bad for a guy carrying this Heat squad to a 6-2 record.

4. Paul Pierce, Celtics (8-1)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
9 34.3 18.1 5.1 4.3 1.4 0.3 .515 .528 .864

Last Week's Rank—2
I'm sticking with the argument stating the best player on the best team deserves to be in the MVP discussion. Paul Pierce is shooting so efficiently that he's not making mistakes with the ball and is closing out games. It was only a matter of time before the Celtics started to lose a few games here and there, but they still remain at the top of the NBA.

5. LeBron James, Cavaliers (6-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
9 38.1 28.2 7.3 7.4 1.7 0.8 .509 .400 .766

Last Week's Rank—10
Let's be honest, who here thought LeBron would stay at the bottom of the MVP Race? The Chosen One has answered all questions this past week, all except where he's going to play next season. He's putting up numbers, the Cavs are climbing back into the Eastern Conference's Elite, and he's leading them to a four-game win streak.

6. Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets (6-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
9 36.9 30.2 6.6 2.9 1.6 0.4 .435 .375 .848

Last Week's Rank—1
The Nuggets' luck is running out, and they're currently looking at a 6-3 record and fifth in the Western Conference. They did look great against the Lakers last night, but this past week hasn't been anywhere close to what we expected. His numbers are up, but he hasn't been able to deliver wins.

7. Brandon Roy, Blazers (6-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
9 35.4 20.8 3.9 5.1 0.4 0.3 .444 .324 .838

Last Week's Rank—N/A
Roy's numbers generally do not fall under the category of "spectacular" and he doesn't look flashy with the ball on every play, but he's the clear cut leader of a team currently on a three-game win streak. I fully expect his numbers to take a turn for the better as he enters an easy portion of the Blazers schedule, which most likely will result in a higher ranking next week.

8. Brandon Jennings (5-2)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
7 32.7 20.7 4.3 5.2 1.3 0.0 .457 .455 .857

Last Week's Rank—N/A
This team is not being talked about at all, and they are playing surprisingly well without their star Michael Redd. They are 4-2, Brandon Jennings is absolutely ballin', and although the Bucks have not had the hardest schedule, they did beat a tough Denver team. If they play like they're doing now, playoffs are a legitimate goal for this team. "Young Money" is playing like a veteran. No one ever expected him to be in this Race, but he fully deserves to be mentioned here. This looks like a great season for fans of the underdog story. Hopefully, the Bucks can avoid injuries, particularly to Jennings and Bogut, and keep stringing the wins together.

9. Chris Bosh, Raptors (4-4)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
8 35.8 28.9 1.5 1.8 0.8 1.0 .507 1.00 .781

Last Week's Rank—9
Bosh is the best Power Forward in the game right now. Don't let the record fool you, this man plays his heart out every single game. He's an absolute monster on the glass, he's racking up points in bunches, and is clearly the most prominent player in the offense.

10. Dwight Howard, Magic (6-3)
G MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
9 31.2 18.4 10.6 1.4 0.8 1.4 .647 --- .629

Last Week's Rank—5
This is not the Superman we're accustomed to seeing. He's getting in foul trouble way too early in games, and he just looks out of sync in the offense. But the Magic are winning games, and Dwight is looking in on another 20-10 year. He's slowly getting back into the swing of things as he displayed some fine, Dwight-esque numbers the other night against the Nets, 26 points and 12 rebounds en route to a victory.

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Refs in Chicago Bulls Game Attack the Integrity of the Game

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:37:37 -0500

I am a basketball fan first and foremost, and I am greatly disturbed by the lack in judgment that occurred last night with the collection of stooges that consisted of Mark Wunderlich, Matt Boland, and Eric Dalen.

It is also shameful that NBA senior vice president of referee operations, Ron Johnson, defended their decision after they did an absolutely horrible job overall calling last night’s Denver versus Chicago game.

For those unaware of the situation, Brad Miller’s late game heroics in which he quickly caught, shot and made a long two-pointer with 0.3 seconds to go to seal a Bulls victory was overruled after video review by the aforementioned referees. Of course, I was crestfallen at hearing the news and I was quick to my feet in scavenging for a replay. And when I finally saw the multiple various angles, I breathed a sigh of relief.

Why did I do this? Because of the following NBA rule:

“Instant replay reviews will be conducted and processed in two minutes or less by the game officials. The call made during play will only be reversed when the replay provides the officials with a “clear and conclusive” basis to do so.”

Say what you want about whether or not Brad Miller still had his fingertips on the ball when the clock ran down to 0.0 seconds. But regardless if you think the call should have gone one way or the other, no one can definitely say whether or not there was a small separation between Brad Miller’s hands and the ball when the clock expired due to the forward movement of the shot.

Miller did not have a chance to get into his typical shooting form and there has been no view that can definitively demonstrate that there was no separation between his fingertips and the ball when the clock expired. Therefore, since there is no “clear and conclusive” evidence to call the shot good or not good, the ruling on the court which gave the Bulls the victory should have stood.

Besides the fact that there is not a single shot that can definitively show beyond a shadow of a doubt what exactly happened, there are other factors that must be taken into account here. The referees specifically put 0.3 seconds on the clock to allow for a potential catch and shoot type scenario. The Trent Tucker rule was put into place for just this type of situation.

So why rule the shot no good? You have to take into consideration that as much we all want the shot clock to be accurate, human error does play a role. And while the shot clock is supposed to start once a player touches the ball, do we know for sure that the shot clock keeper started the countdown at the exact moment in time that Brad Miller touched the ball?

While it is certainly upsetting to any Bulls fans that this occurred, what irks me to no end was that the NBA clearly is not following their own rule. If the NBA believes they need to save face for the referees, that is one thing. And I can totally understand that thinking because of the fragile ties right now between the league and the referees. But by doing so, they are indirectly attacking the integrity of the game.

Why create a rule if you are not going to enforce it? I sincerely hope that the NBA front office will take to heart their own rules in the future because right now they seriously have a lesson or two to learn from the NFL about instant replay.

BTA's Full Court Press: A Look into the NBA Season

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:13:12 -0500

Welcome to the first installment of Beyond the Arc's Full Court Press, where we will be giving a unique outlook on the 2009/2010 NBA Season. In this edition, you will read about the Celtics' quick start to the season, Carmelo's early MVP talk, the Spurs looking like the team we have all come to know, and much more.

It's roughly seven or eight games into the season for every team in the NBA, which leaves everyone watching in a curious position. There has been enough action so far to give everyone a map of what to expect for the rest of the season, but nothing is set in stone.

Two or three games at this point in the season could dramatically alter the way any team is viewed and any analysis of players or teams is speculation at best. Still, there are some interesting things transpiring in the early stages of the season that should be noted.

The San Antonio Spurs are off to a slow start once again, muddling their way to a 3-3 record to begin the season.

This is rather disconcerting for a team that many felt should be among the elite few competing for a title. However, they've done the same thing the past few seasons so it's become as routine as their midseason rodeo road trip or the fact that they're pretty much guaranteed 50-plus wins as long as Tim Duncan is around.

No one seems to be bothered by this because it's common knowledge that the Spurs always take the early part of the season to round into shape. They even did it last season with a rather pathetic roster (at least compared to this season).

Still, they have some issues that are fairly hard to ignore. Ginobili looks to be back to reasonable health (especially after his dismantling of the Raptors), but Parker and Duncan are not helping the cause by getting themselves banged up. They can't reach their full potential this season without Duncan and Parker, but that's a given. What team is going to do well without two of its three top players?

The holes that have plagued them in seasons past are still there. They're still a rather old and unathletic team. George Hill and DeJuan Blair give them some youth (and in Hill's case, athleticism), but neither of them are playing enough to totally offset those issues. It wouldn't be such a big deal if Richard Jefferson hadn't gotten off to a slow start (although the aforementioned Raptors game might have set him on the right path).

These are things to keep an eye on if the Spurs continue to stumble going into the one-third mark of the season, but like always, it's far too early to count out the San Antonio Spurs.

On the other side of the spectrum of championship contenders are the Boston Celtics, who are storming out of the gate just like they've done since acquiring Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. It's not surprising that they're off to such a hot start because they've done so the last few seasons. What is surprising is how they're doing it.

The trend for fast starting teams is usually based around offense. The reason for this is that truly good offensive teams are able to take advantage of teams trying to find their footing in the opening weeks, which magnifies how good the team is offensively and exposes teams that haven't quite found their identity.

Normally, it takes good defensive teams a few weeks to round into shape because of how much time teams need to gel to really be effective. Not so with the Celtics, who have stormed out of the gate, not with a blistering offensive pace (although they haven't been bad) but by bludgeoning teams to death on the defensive end.

Their point differential this early in the season is a staggering 14 points per game, which is a good six points higher than the next closest team (the Miami Heat have a point differential of a little less than eight points per game). This kind of cohesion is typically not the norm this early in the season.

Speaking of teams that are among the tops in the league, the Phoenix Suns are arguably the most surprising of the one-loss teams thus far. (Well, Miami probably has a claim to this title to, but they haven't played any teams of note.)

Steve Nash has been the primary reason for this quick start, as reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated. Last season, there were whispers Nash may have been done as one of the top point guards after a relatively underwhelming '08-'09 season. But put the ball back in Nash's hands and speed up the tempo, and all of a sudden he's looking like the Nash of old (or rather the Nash of his MVP seasons).

He's already had two 20-assist games in the early season (and a 17-assist game to boot) and it's been great to see him control games late like an expert puppeteer again. It's far too early to start talking about potential MVPs, but Nash has inserted himself into the second best point guard spot with a vengeance.

As for the best point guard in the NBA, it's hard to imagine how Chris Paul was going to top last season. However, Chris Paul found a way to take things up a notch when it seemed that he was already playing at his top level.

It's easy to discount what Paul is doing this season because the Hornets are sputtering and look downright awful (at least for a team expected to make the playoffs), but what he's doing this season is something spectacular. Paul has two seasons of 20-plus points per game, 10-plus assists per game, and less than three turnovers per game, and he's poised to do it again this season.

This season he's decided to top himself by turning into an absolutely lethal shooter.

Again, it's early in the season, so shooting an astounding 63 percent from the field (and an out-of-this-world 68 percent from three) is probably not going to hold up for the entire season.

But when you look at it historically, he's already attempted the second most shots for a guard shooting over 60 percent (the only guard to shoot 60 percent for an entire season is the Blazers Dave Twardzik in '76-'77).

I don't doubt that this isn't the first time it's happened, but it still shouldn't be taken lightly considering he's also scoring 26 points per game at the same time. If the Hornets were a more competitive team, Paul's unbelievable start would be getting more recognition.

Even though we're only two weeks into the season, it didn't stop NBA.com from releasing their first MVP rankings. This is ridiculous, considering, as I pointed out earlier, a few games here or there could change the opinion of any team or player.

Case in point is the Denver Nuggets, who were being hailed as potential juggernauts at the start of the season but after two sluggish games have fallen back down to Earth. Their quick start pushed Carmelo Anthony into the No. 1 spot of the MVP rankings but since then that talk has quietly stopped.

This is unfortunate because it looks as though the light bulb has gone off for Anthony and he deserves some recognition.

In the grand tradition of Bernard King and Chris Mullin, Anthony has stepped up his game quite considerably.

He's become much deadlier on offense, no longer stopping ball movement, creating more shots for teammates, getting his butt on the block and to the line to get easy points, and he's not turning the ball over. While the early notions of MVP were quite laughable (not so much for his play but for the concept in general), his play has definitely been on another level.

It looks as though he's becoming the elite player that most everyone was convinced he'd become when he was drafted. (I should also give a shout out to Chris Bosh for doing the same thing, but I haven't seen the Raptors play yet this season and have absolutely no idea how he's getting to the line as often as he is.)

As I pointed out at the start, it's still early in the season, so any or all of these situations could change by the end of this week, but they are all storylines to keep an eye on as the season progresses. There are several others but we'll keep those under wraps, at least until Thanksgiving.

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NBA: Looking Into Contract Incentives

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:33:25 -0500

I know that you and I had the same exact thought when the Cavaliers offered hustle player Anderson Varejao to a six-year, $50 million dollar contract: "WTF are you doing Danny Ferry? Are you drunk?." Rightfully so. On the surface, that contract appears to pay Varejao an average of $8.3 million a year for six whole years. A bit much? Further investigation shows us that these "incentives" exist in his contract, but what does that matter, the guy signed for $50 million!

Well, it actually does matter Anderson, because these incentives will likely turn that $50 million into a much lesser sum. Figured I would just let you all in on the big secret of "contract incentives."

Did you know that these players would have earned:

$1.5 million dollar bonus for Luke Ridnour if he won Defensive Player of the Year.

$500,000 for Nick Collison if he won the League MVP!

$500,00 for Adonyle Foyle if would of won Finals MVP!

And so many other just almost mockingly genius incentives planted into the contract.

Don't get me wrong, Luke Ridnour is a nice little all around point guard. But we all know he's an offensive PG, and out of the starting 30 PG's in the NBA, he might be the 30th when it comes defense...yes, Nash is a better all around defender than Ridnour. So it was almost like the GM was mocking Luke when he asked him to sign the contract, just so he could see the look on Luke's face when he read "$1.5 million for Defensive Player of the Year;" Luke must of laughed at it...or at least I hope so...

My point is simple. In these nasty economic times, these contract incentives becomes so far-fetched that the entire point of having them is pretty much useless. When a it appears that "Anderson Varejao signed a six-year, $50 million dollar that is only half the truth. There is obviously a team option, maybe two or three in it. There are TONS of incentives; I'm sure he has to average a double/double each year to get one million each year. Or maybe he has to lead the league in charges and he gets $500,000. Or maybe he has to average a double/double while the Cavs win the Finals and he gets a two million dollar "bonus." Reality: it's not a bonus. That "six-year, 50 million" is the MAXIMUM he will possibly make in that time; I'd give it a 0.2 percent chance of happening.

But who knows, these are just estimations. I did actually read that I believe around $40-$42 of his actual contract is guaranteed. That makes it sound a lot less ridiculous. From almost $10 million a year to analyzing it and realizing it's more like $6.7 mil a year.

That specific example was just one of the many, many contract incentives that exist. I have only mentioned five or six, when most all contracts have some type of incentive in it. I know Mario Chalmers got an "extra" $25,000 for showing up to training camp in good shape and participating throughout. Not bad. So who knows, maybe Ridnour will work on his defense the next year and climb to the ranks of the Dwight Howard's, Ron Artest's, Marcus Camby's, Ben Wallace's, and Shane Battier's for DPOY. They are the only thing standing between his $1.5 million.

Then again, Eric Dampier might end up as the getting voted in by coaches for the back-up Center gig on the Western Conference All-Star Team this season(09-10). When it's officially, Mark Cuban I believe has $750,000, or maybe a straight up $1.0 million due to Eric.

Chicago Bulls: The Reasons To Pursue

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:06:33 -0400

Wade is the only great player on an otherwise pretty putrid team. Without Wade, the Heat are absolutely lottery-bound. Michael Beasley might have the potential to be a 20-10 type player, but he’ll do it without playing a lick of defense.

Jermaine O’Neal may be healthy, but his athletic ability has noticeably deteriorated as of late and he’s being forced play out of position. Mario Chalmers has decent potential, but I can’t help but thinking that his ceiling is along the lines of Chris Duhon; he’ll be a solid defender, good passer and floor leader but won’t have a great amount of offensive game to speak of.

And Udonis Haslem is, well, just a nice role player to have but nothing special. Lastly, Carlos Arroyo will play big minutes. And no offense to Arroyo, but if he’s your sixth best player and he‘s not far off in talent compared to players three to five, you’ve got problems. So it’s no wonder that there is a lot of talk regarding Wade leaving Miami.

I hear this argument often that the Heat can give Wade an extra year on his contract which should equate to upwards of $25+ million compared to what he can earn everywhere else. And to that I say, so what? Miami is not a big sports town. It’s just not. They love to talk about college football there more than anything else.

And can you blame them? This is the kingdom of fashion. There’s great weather almost year-round and you just don’t get the same sports atmosphere that you see in other cities. Sure Miami has the Heat, the Dolphins, the Marlins, the Panthers and their beloved Hurricanes. But despite having relatively successful franchises, a big portion of the talk around the town is about the Jets, the Giants, the Yankees, the Mets and the Red Sox.

There are so many snow birds and transplant New Yorkers down here that sometimes Miami sports gets dominated by the northeastern U.S. Add the fact that Miami is the seventh largest market in the U.S. and you have to consider how big the Heat following really is. What percentage of that seventh largest market is actually following the Heat and not other teams?

Granted, Wade has a big pull with fans of other teams, but the key here is endorsements. I’d be willing to bet that if Wade moved to one of the big three markets of New York, LA, or Chicago, his endorsement money that he would earn in the long run would most likely come close to or possibly even surpass that extra salary that Wade would earn with just one extra year in Miami.

There’s no question that Bulls fans as a whole are a lot more loyal to their team. And they will buy all things Wade in bulk compared to Heat fans. And I mean no disrespect to Heat fans. But let me give you an example of the difference between the two teams.

Two years removed from a title, the Miami Heat ranked 15th in attendance. That’s down from fifth in attendance in their only title year. In contrast, the Chicago Bulls, who ranked second in attendance last season, were ranked first in attendance two years removed from their last title with a 17-win team.

In fact, during all of those awful years for Chicago in the post-Jordan era, the Bulls have never been out of the top ten in attendance and were only out of the top five just one season (where they ranked ninth).

You mean to tell me that fans like that won’t overcome the difference that Wade would make with an extra year in Miami by buying his products? I know that’s a lot of dough, but I find it a bit difficult to believe that a super-star level hometown product playing with another up-and-coming potential super-star hometown product (Rose) wouldn’t make more money in his hometown of Chicago than in his adopted town of Miami.

The latter three dynasty Bulls teams did not have a post presence big man. Instead they substituted a classic post presence with a 2-guard in Michael Jordan who can actually be considered a post presence. Jordan had a habit of playing with his back to the basket. All he needed was for good rebounders to collect his misses and either give the Bulls a second chance to regroup or to quickly put the ball into the hoop.

The current Bulls you would think badly need a post presence. But after re-analyzing the situation, I don’t think that’s the case. Having a post presence is extremely overrated. What you need if you don’t have a super-star level guard or small forward capable of playing the post presence roll is at least one big man who is capable of scoring inside on a consistent basis.

It doesn’t matter how that ball gets into the hoop as long as it gets in there. If you don’t have a big man capable of averaging 20+ points per game, you need to have a number of quality big men who are all capable of doing some damage down low.

Last season the Bulls weren’t that team.

They did not have quality big men who were capable of scoring close to the basket on a consistent basis. Probably the most consistent big man to score close to the hoop in the latter half of the season was Brad Miller. And since he was coming off the bench he wasn’t exactly doing that that often—especially considering that his role also allowed him to take an occasional jumper. But now? The Bulls don’t have that same problem.

Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas took this offseason seriously. Both guys have visibly bulked up. Noah has seemingly worked on his post game and is finding easy ways to score without having his back to the basket.

We haven’t seen much of Tyrus yet, but if his last preseason game is any indication, he has finally realized that his freakish athletic gifts could be use to take it to the hoop every time without nearly as much trouble as it would take other players.

And apparently he’s grown an extra inch to reach 6’10’’; so that’s certainly going to help him poke the ball through the net. But in any case, the improvement of these two guys is extremely important to Chicago’s future direction of the franchise.

Then there’s the two rookies, James Johnson and Taj Gibson. Johnson has shown flashes of being a guy who can get inside in a highlight reel fashion. And he should be able to do that on a more regular basis if given the minutes.

But his contributions as a role player for now will help this team. And Taj Gibson has shown now on a consistent basis that not only can he score inside, but he can be used as an effective mid-range jumper weapon. Together the two of these guys add a great deal more depth and another dimension to a front court that lacked such players last season.

And now that Luol Deng is healthy and will see some time at the 4, things are looking a bit more stacked in the front court than they’ve had in Chicago for quite some time.

So the issue here is that if this front court can continue to produce in the regular season as well as its been producing during the preseason, the need to pursue that star-caliber big man may not be as big as was once thought by many. And if that is truly the case, the biggest are the Bulls would need to improve upon would be at the 2.

While I have great confidence in John Salmons, if he asks for a long and pricey extension I would pass on him due to his age. Although if Luol Deng does not return to his offensive form in previous years, attempting to dump him might be a better option.

However, I have my doubts that anyone would want to take him off of Chicago’s hands unless he returns to form. And if he does, then the Bulls would most certainly keep him.

But if he doesn’t and the Bulls somehow are able to get rid of his contract without damaging their 2010 cap situation too much, resigning Salmons to play the 3 would make sense if they plan on putting the rest of their money into bringing in an upgrade at the 2.

So if the 2-guard position the focus for 2010 then you have to look at Wade first and then Joe Johnson second. But Wade is most certainly the bigger talent and he would have more reason to leave Miami for Chicago then for Johnson to leave Atlanta for Chicago.

Ignore the fact that Wade is a Chicagoan for a moment and consider the mentality of most super-star caliber players. They want to win. But they also want to get paid.

If you take a look at the teams with significant cap space in 2010, the size of the markets and actual talent to surround the player to compete for a championship, only two destinations make sense: Chicago and New Jersey. But out of those two teams, Chicago has more talent and the city has a personal connection to Wade.

So if you’re the Bulls, you go after Wade not just because of his talent but because he’s the most likely free agent that you can pry away from another team.

If the Bulls’ front court situation did not significantly improve over the off season I would have lobbied not to pursue Wade because he wouldn’t have filled Chicago’s biggest hole. But if things progress the way they have been, all indications would point to that not being the issue.

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Beyond The Arc NBA Power Rankings: Training Camp Edition Part 2

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:49:12 -0400

16. Miami

Their biggest acquisition of the offseason was Quentin Richardson. *Yawn*

If they don't make any other significant pickups during the offseason, they have to pray that Wade can play lights-out again next season and that both Beasley and Chalmers make significant jumps this season.

17. Philadelphia

After hiring Eddie Jordan as the Head Coach, this team is looking more and more like the Washington Wizards of two years ago, just with less talent. Will they be able to make the transition to the Princeton Offense? I think so; they have their star player who has gone very unappreciated this past season- Andre Iguodala- who I think has a chance to make a name for himself this year.

They lost their star point guard Andre Miller, but at the expense of giving more minutes to Lou Williams, who many believe will be a good fit in this new offense. He doesn't need to be a traditional PG, and he doesn't need to put up Chris Paul-type numbers, he just needs to learn the system and play to his strengths, which will be easy for him as he did much of that off the bench last year.

But best of all, they're getting back a healthy Elton Brand, which will give them a presence down low both offensively and defensively. This team has the potential to be playoff bound, but if all goes bad, they will be lottery bound.

18. New Jersey

Call me crazy, but I actually think shipping out Vince Carter makes the Nets a better team. Don't get me wrong, Vince Carter is still a solid player. But his presence definitely was hindering the development of other players, in my opinion. The Nets now have a much more balanced backcourt with their three guard rotation of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, and Rafer Alston.

Lee is very much the type of player you want playing next to Harris. All he has to do is defend his position- something he does very well- and shoot the occasional jumper from the perimeter (another thing he does well), and the Nets are set in the backcourt.

Additionally, having Alston available off the bench should allow Harris to swing over to the two-guard from time-to-time, so that he's not constantly handling the ball. They just have a very balanaced backcourt now. It's not a very talented backcourt, but it should be effective.

Also, with Carter gone, Brook Lopez should be getting a lot more looks. Out of the 2008 draft class, he's the most likely player to be a 20-10 guy one day. As a 20-year-old rookie, he averaged roughly 13 pts, eight reb, with two bpg on 53.1 percent shooting. Vince Carter was averaging 16.8 FGA's per game compared to Devin Harris' 15.1 FGA's per game and Brok Lopez's 10.3 FGA's per game. Is it really inconceivable that with Carter's touches going elsewhere that Lopez can't score close to 20 ppg? No, it's not.

Watch for New Jersey to potentially make a playoff push as a low seed. If they're successful in reaching the playoffs, they could turn some heads come the big 2010 free agency period because of the cap space that they have.

19. Detroit

This team is a mess.

They're a mix bag of above average and very good players that just don't fit well. What has Joe Dumars been thinking?

Stuckey isn't a true point guard, and both Ben Gordon and Rip Hamilton need an effective point guard for them to be successful. Charlie Villenueva is only a nice option if he's paired next to a stud. Otherwise, he's really just a serviceable power forward. And who's going to be that stud playing next to him? Chris Wilcox? Kwame Brown? A washed-up Ben Wallace?

Joe Dumars has me completely befuddled on what direction he's leading that franchise. These are all the wrong pieces if they want to complete. If Dumars can't convert Hamilton into a nice big man, look for Detroit to finally miss the playoffs this year for the first time in a long time.

What a run they've had.

20. Oklahoma City

Durant is poised for another great year. But OKC still has a ways to go in filling the right pieces next to him. If Harden pans out, they're going to be an exciting team to watch.

They'll be stocked at the one, two, and three with a very nice option off the bench in Thabo Sefolosha for defensive purposes. However, their frontcourt leaves quite a bit to be desired.

Jeff Green is not a power forward, and Kristic and Collison are just serviceable power forwards. They're really missing that consistent scoring option out of either the four or five positions that they need to take the leap that Portland has in recent years; that is, they'll become a very good, young team with no playoff experience that will take some time to make the next step forward.

Still, they should be interesting to watch this coming season.

21. Charlotte

Although I'm not high on Chandler, I do think he's a better fit next to Diaw than Okafor was. Diaw is not a classic post presence by any means, but without Okafor in Charlotte, he should absorb most of his touches. All Chandler has to do is act as the supporter and take pressure off of Diaw on the defensive end and suddenly Charlotte is quite a bit more balanced.

Gerald Henderson is also an intriguing prospect. Will he earn a starting spot? Or will the Bobcats be forced to use Bell (a guy who should be a sixth man) as their starter again?

It's hard to say. They took a step back with the Okafor trade, I see them ending up in the lottery this season.

22. Indiana

Tyler Hansbrough has gone from extremely underrated by the media to extremely overrated by the media. In all likelihood, he'll end up being a nice role player. He's never going to be a star, but he's not going to be a scrub either.

Earl Watson should more than make up for the loss of Jarret Jack, while Brandon Rush is looking like he'll bloom into a very solid shooting guard. But the biggest issue here is whether or not Mike Dunleavy can stay healthy. If he returns to form next to Danny Granger, Indiana could be a difficult team to deal with. They would have a few very nice offensive options in the frontcourt to go along with an underrated frontcourt.

Indiana's big men may not fill up the stat sheet well, but they are solid options as role players. The biggest piece missing from their frontcourt, however, is a consistent scoring big man. Pacers fans love to beat their chests about how great Troy Murphy is, but he's really just a solid role player.

In fact, there's a good chance that Hansbrough develops into Troy Murphy 2.0. I know Indiana is banking on Hibbert developing into that piece they're sorely missing, but I just don't see that happening. Larry Bird still has some tweaking to do.

23. Golden State

The Warriors of the last few years have been a fun team to watch. But like the Wizards, their defense is almost non-existent. They don't have a true point guard and their frontcourt leaves much to be desired.

Biedrins is an interesting option at the five, but I'm really not sure how to evaluate how good the guy actually is. Last season he was a solid 11-12 guy, but his scoring came in an up-tempo system and he wasn't playing next to good rebounders in the frontcourt. So in a different system, he may actually be very average.

Anthony Randolph is someone that a lot of people believe is oozing with potential. And from what I've seen, he might actually be a solid player within a year or two. But most likely that won't happen with the current Warriors.

Their team is full of selfish options that don't like to play team ball. When they shipped out Jason Richardson and were not able to resign Baron Davis, they lost the heart and soul of their team. Al Harrington was also probably a better fit next to Biedrins than Anthony Randolph.

And who knows how much longer Stephen Jackson will continue to play at a high level. They have too many question marks coming into this season and are taking a huge risk having Monta Ellis act as their main point guard. Maybe they'll prove me wrong, but I see them as being a lottery team again, despite the addition of Stephen Curry.

24. Memphis

I don't like the Zach Randolph trade, I don't like the Iverson signing, and I really don't like Mike Conley as their point guard. In my opinion, Hasheem Thabeet was a poor pick and they would have been much better off either taking Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, or even James Harden.

If they were going to bring in Zach Randolph anyway, they could have stuck with Marc Gasol at the five. And if they had picked James Harden, they could have actually tried O.J. Mayo at the point. And if that didn't work out, they could have traded one of the two guys at some point during the season for a pretty penny. But no, they went with the very raw seven-footer who could easily turn out to be a bust in Thabeet.

Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but until then, they're a mess.

25. Houston

Houston arguably has had the worst offseason of any team in the NBA.

Yao Ming is out the entire season with a foot injury that might force him into an early retirement, Ron Artest bolted to the Lakers, Tracy McGrady is now a year older (that's not a good thing considering his recent decline), and Von Wafer is now galavanting in Europe.

And unfortunately, their biggest acquisition was Trevor Ariza (way overrated). You have to feel sorry for the Rockets. They are just in an awful position for next season. But at the very least they should be able to rebuild quickly in 2010 with the amount of cap space they'll have. However, with the optimistic reviews on Tracy McGrady, Trevor Ariza will not be carrying the load, and Houston should be able to win 30 games at best.

26. Milwaukee

The Bucks should have been a playoff team last season, but injuries plagued them all season long.

Yet Scott Skiles still get the best out of the scrubs who were still playing. Had they not traded away Richard Jefferson, they would be higher on this list. But without him and Ramon Sessions, it's hard to say where they'll be.

With Sessions leaving for Minnesota, Jennings will have a great year and will be a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year.

27. Minnesota

So Minny grabbed two point guards and traded away Ty Lawson for a 2010 pick. I like the Ty Lawson deal for them since the 2010 draft is supposed to be very deep. But unless they can get Rubio into the NBA or trade him for something nice, they're in trouble.

They have no two-guard. And the Jefferson/Love combo is not a good one. It's not as if either player isn't good, they're both solid; in fact, Jefferson is great. But they don't complement each other well and Jefferson is really more of a power forward than a center. They should really trade one of the two to fill out another position on their roster.

This is another team that's a big mess: they don't have Rubio the next two years and they still have not found a star player to compliment Al Jefferson.

28. New York

They haven't been able to get any decent free agents to join them this offseason. And they've made basically no improvements besides drafting Hill. Knicks fans should be bracing for yet another miserable season.

29. LA Clippers

Good for them that they lucked out in the draft. Blake Griffin will certainly help them out. Unfortunately, like the Detroit situation, this is a team with a lot of talent but all the wrong pieces.

Kaman and Camby cannot co-exist. And Griffin is still a rookie that will take some time to develop. While they should be improved next season talent-wise, their record probably won't improve all that much. However, they've laid out the groundwork to build around a nice little core of Griffin, Gordon, and Thornton for the forseeable future.

30. Sacramento

While Sacramento absolutely has a lot more talent than Houston, they don't have pieces that fit together well. I like that they've brought over Casspi from Israel, but isn't he projected to develop into a similar player as Andres Nocioni.

They already have Nocioni, so I don't know how he'll get much playing time. Also, I'm not entirely convinced that Evans is a point guard. And while I do like Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes, neither is the dominant big man they need.

The Kings are going to be in for a rough season until they learn how to play together. But considering their star player is a major chucker (albeit a very good chucker) who doesn't play a lick of defense (and no one really knows at this point who their second option will be), the Kings will unfortunately be in for a very rough season.

Beyond The Arc NBA Power Rankings: Training Camp Edition Part 1

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:47:37 -0400

Welcome to the very first installment of BTA's NBA Power Rankings, as we head into preseason, many of the major deals have been finalized, and teams are beginning to discover their true identities, making sure they are in a strong position to win games this season.

Some teams are in rebuilding mode, some teams are playoff bound, and some players are in strong contention for the Championship.

1. LA Lakers

The Lakers have lost Trevor Ariza (overrated) and added Ron Artest (under-appreciated). They also managed to re-sign Lamar Odom. Therefore, with their core still intact and significantly improved, how can you not rate the defending champions No. 1 at this point in time?

2. Boston

If there's one team that has a chip on its shoulder, it's the veteran Boston Celtics, lead by their vocal captain, Paul Pierce. He openly stated how focused this team is heading into the 2009-10 season, and how mentally prepared they are.

Danny Ainge gave the Big Three exactly what they needed—reliable support off the bench. With the signings of Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels, and the re-signing of Glen Davis, the Celtics look stronger than ever.

What seperates this team from the Magic and Cavs is its team chemistry; there are absolutely no question marks regarding team chemistry after their offseason acquisitions, while the Cavs and Magic have a lot to prove in terms of how they plan on implementing their new arrivals into their lineup and team strategy.

The Celtics are built on defense, but more importantly, they are built on a tradition that has lasted over 60 years—winning, which they look to do this season.

3. Orlando

The silver winners of this past season arguably improved more than the Lakers so far this offseason. Is it enough to overcome the Lakers right now? No. But I like the moves they've made overall.

They gave away a couple of nice pieces in Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston, but made out big by acquiring Vince Carter and Ryan Andersen. The latter of the two guys coming in from that trade is especially intriguing, since he still has the potential to be a nice role player.

Overall, despite taking on a tremendous amount of salary in the deal, they still came out on top. And the signing of Brandon Bass was a big pickup for them, as well. He'll add some much-needed interior defense to take the pressure off of Dwight Howard and to limit any Howard and Gortat pairings.

Speaking of Gortat, I'm not sure what Orlando was thinking when the re-signed him to an outrageous contract. Sure, the guy comes in and plays some nice spot minutes. But despite his great rebounding ability and potentially nice offensive capability, he's extremely foul prone.

I don't blame Dallas for taking a risk by signing him to an offer sheet, because they really need better interior defense. But why would Orlando bring a now-disgruntled player back at that price just to have him come off the bench? That boggles my mind.

And I don't buy the idea that they'll trade him later on to get value for him. If he barely plays, who's going to offer Orlando a pretty penny to trade for the guy? Bad move, in my opinion.

What Orlando should have done was send in Dwight Howard, Vince Carter, and Rashard Lewis to Rasheed Wallace's doorstep right after the Celtics' Big Three came knocking to tell him that he can win a championship just as easily as he could in Boston.

In any case, the one last point I'd like to make about Orlando is that moving Rashard Lewis back to the 3 is going to pay off big for them. They have arguably the best starting lineup in the NBA right now with Nelson/Carter/Lewis/Bass/Howard.

But their bench is just decent and they lack any really good perimeter shooters beyond Carter and Lewis. You could make the argument that Pietrus is a decent shooter off the bench, but he doesn't exactly shoot lights out that often. Still, Orlando is a dangerous team to watch out for next season.

4. Cleveland

They turned Ben Wallace and change into Shaq. Now that's a fantastic move. Even if Shaq doesn't pan out for them—which I think he probably will—they now have 20 million dollars coming off their cap that could potentially allow them not only to keep Lebron in 2010, but to add another big name player (not named Shaq) to their roster.

Adding Shaq to a half-court system should give Cleveland enough inside/outside game to make them significantly better than last year. However, their backcourt still leaves a great deal to be desired.

While I love the Anthony Parker pickup, he's not exactly the perimeter shooter they need to take the pressure off of Mo Williams from producing. Still, they should be significantly better defensively—which is frightening because they already were a top notch defensive team—and they are quite a bit more balanced now.

Unfortunately, Ilguaskas is definitely on the decline. But if he splits his time somewhat close to 50/50 with Shaq, both guys should be a strong one-two punch at the 5. Having both players play less minutes will keep their legs fresh and give opposing teams a bunch of headaches.

5. San Antonio

I love the acquisition of Richard Jefferson for them. He should be a big upgrade over Bruce Bowen. And adding Antonio McDyess was also huge for a team that needed another defensive presence and solid rebounder next to Duncan. They essentially upgraded their weakest starting positions and now have a complete starting lineup.

Also, drafting DeJuan Blair is intriguing. When he dropped to No. 26, I was salivating at the idea of the Bulls lucking into drafting both James Johnson and DeJuan Blair. But when the Bulls passed on him and selected Taj Gibson instead, and Blair just continued to free fall, that (to me, anyway) is a red flag.

Sure, teams make mistakes in their selections and let a guy get drafted way later than he should be. But for that many teams to pass on someone who I thought was a quality player makes me think that something's up. Either most teams are worried about his knees or they are worried about his lack in height for a player that will play the 4.

Whatever the case is, you can't blame San Antonio for not passing up on him with a second-round pick. We'll just have to see if he pans out this coming season or not.

6. Denver

They didn't really improve over the offseason. Adding Ty Lawson is nice for the future. But will he play much next season? I doubt it. While other teams in the WC have improved their roster, Denver has not done a great deal besides tweaking their bench.

Lucikly, Billups had a resurgence next year and looks to start off the season strong again. But can he keep it up?

7. Portland
Pritchard made two big misses with the Hinrich trade and with missing out on Turkoglu. Fortunately for Portland, they still have Nicolas Batum—a player that I am very high on—to play at the 3.

But there are other problems that they have to address.

The first of which is what to do with the Aldridge/Oden pairing. I understand that Pritchard wanted Millsap because of his defensive skills and abilities to bang inside. He's probably a better option for Portland to have than Aldridge, despite LMA being a better offensive player; great defensive is a very underrated quality in the NBA.

But it is a bit unclear if Pritchard signed Millsap to an offer sheet because he really wanted Millsap or if he wanted to force Utah's hand in trading Boozer so that Hinrich could become available to his team. In all likelihood, he was looking for either one of them to happen.

If Utah didn't match their offer, Portland would have gotten a player it coveted and wouldn't have had to extend Aldridge to a huge deal. On the other hand, if Utah matched and felt they needed to trade Boozer, the Hinrich deal would have gone through. Either way, it should have been a win/win situation. Instead, Pritchard lost out on both possibilites.

So with his main targets seemingly off the market, who did he turn to? Andre Miller. He was perhaps the most talented, yet least fitting point guard for Portland left on the market. Miller is meant for an up-tempo system that doesn't require him to play good defense or take many jumpshots.

Unfortunately, Portland plays the slowest ball in the league and they need a perimeter shooter next to Roy. While Miller is certainly an upgrade over Blake in terms of talent, he may not be as good of a fit for Portland as Blake is. So did Portland solve its need for an upgrade at the 1? Most likely not.

So where does Portland go from here? It's hard to say. It seems as though Pritchard does not want to part with his young talent to acquire something better. He's got an abundance of "potentially good" players on his roster. And yet there aren't enough minutes to go around for everyone to be all-stars.

He needs to pull the trigger on a major trade or two that will bring in veterans. Because although he has nice players on his team's roster, they do not have the playoff experience to go far.

The regular season is very different from the playoffs. Although it's very possible that Portland could reach as high as a No. 2 seed this season if they stay healthy, without another major change to their roster, they could be setting themselves up for another first-round exit.

8. Dallas

Trading for Marion was a big move for the Mavericks. He not only adds much-needed defense to their frontcourt, but also some solid rebounding that's always a valuable commodity in the league. Losing Brandon Bass will sting a bit, but Marion is a much better talent than Bass.

With a main unit of Jason Kidd/Jason Terry/Josh Howard/Shawn Marion/Dirk Nowitzki, this is a team to watch out for. Do not underestimate the Marion pickup. He will allow the Mavs to play an up-tempo game better than they ever have before with a greater offensive threat in the front court.

Who do you focus on when guarding against them? If you double-team Kirk, now you have to be wary of perimeter shooting from not only Terry and Howard now, but Marion, as well. And Marion adds another slasher to the team.

Adding Marion is similar to having a Luol Deng/Andres Nocioni combo from a couple of seasons ago, in the way that you have two guys who can slash and punish you from the perimeter. You end up spacing the floor while opening up other guys on the offensive end of the court. However, a Howard/Marion pairing should be a lot more effective than a Deng/Nocioni pairing because the former pair is just simply more talented.

Be watchful of Dallas this season. They could be very dangerous.

9. New Orleans

I actually liked the Tyson Chander/Emeka Okafor swap for New Orleans from a talent perspective. Make no mistake, Okafor is a lot better than Chandler. Tyson is way overrated. He really can only play the defensive side of the court effectively.

And while defense is very important in this league, the only reason why he looks decent on the offensive side of the court is because he has Chris Paul's superb court vision helping him out. Chandler has very bad hands for an NBA player. And his frame is still fairly wiry.

Okafor, on the other hand, is ripped. He's nearly as good as Chandler is on the defensive end, he's a great rebounder, and he's got a better offensive skillset than Chandler. And with Chris Paul dishin him the ball, he should prove to be a much better player with the Hornets than with the Bobcats.

However, there is still one issue that concerns me.

Can he be effective playing next to David West? I'm not sure those two guys are a good fit next to each other; their games may be too similar to make things work. And so I would tread with caution in ranking them above any of the teams ranked higher on this list at this point.

In addition, we have to see if New Orleans will, in fact, keep David West. The reason why the Hornets tried to dump Chandler to OKC last season was to shed salary. And the Okafor trade didn't exactly shed that much of it.

10. Utah

Another team that has basically stayed constant going into next season. Obviously, the Boozer situation will affect where they ultimately end up. But assuming that Boozer is still on the roster come opening day, this is where they should be ranked.

11. Washington

After acquiring Randy Foye and Mike Miller in a trade for a few bench players and a first-round pick who ended up being a player who won't play in the league for the next two years, the Wizards have provided their injury-prone big three enough insurance to last them a full season. Will it be enough?

Of course it would, when you have one of the most consistent power forwards in the game on offense, a hard-nosed player who can play on both sides of the court, and arguably one of the most explosive PGs in the league, I can guarantee you this team will be a tough team to beat in the regular season.

The center of attention in Washington has always been Gilbert Arenas, and it hasn't changed. After missing nearly two years with a knee injury, Wizards fans haven't heard one negative remark about him, which could mean he's back.

Now I bet you're asking, how does a team that was at the bottom of the league shoot up to the top 15? It's simple, when you know the talent this team contains has a chance to compete with the upper echelon teams of the East on any given night, you're in for a great season.

12. Atlanta

Jamal Crawford may be a chucker, but for a team that does not want to completely rely on Mike Bibby's shot as a second perimeter option to Joe Johnson, Crawford makes an excellent addition.

Atlanta is another team that didn't make a lot of changes during the offseason. But that three-guard rotation of Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, and Jamal Crawford is probably the most balanced one, next to Derrick Rose, John Salmons, and Kirk Hinrich. Atlanta is certainly deep in the backcourt, but they really lack the muscle in the frontcourt to set themselves up for a long playoff run.

I like Horford; he's a solid option at the 4/5 very much in the mold of another Emeka Okafor. He's not a post presence, but his defense is decent and he does a whole lot more good than harm.

But Atlanta relies too heavily on young, athletic guys who don't have polished games. They really need to add another strong big man to their rotation with size. Although I like Marvin Williams, the guy should really be playing the 4. So I would expect to see Joe Johnson play a bit more at the 3 this season to give Crawford more playing time at the 2.

As things stand, however, Atlanta has a solid unit with a bunch of above average players. But they really have only one great player that does not get enough recognition for his talent. And without that reliable big man, they can't contend.

13. Toronto

I like what they've done with their bench. But that trio of Turkoglu, Bosh, and Bargnani still has me scratching my head a bit. I don't think Turkoglu can replicate what he did in Orlando with Toronto. The reason why Turkoglu was such an effective point forward in Orlando was out necessity.

Jameer Nelson is extremely overrated in terms of his point guards skills and Turkoglu's court vision greatly exceeded Nelson's. But now Turkoglu has found himself on a team with a point guard with one of the best court visions in the NBA. I have a feeling this might, unfortunately, reduce Turkoglu into a spot-up perimeter shooter.

Also, Bargnani is overrated and does not do any one thing well, besides his perimeter shooting. He does have nice size, but he needs to add some muscle if he wants to hold down either the 4 or the 5 effectively.

I'm not saying that Bargnani is a bad player, but I don't think he's a great fit next to Bosh. In addition, that 3/4/5 combo has got to be one of the most talented yet one of the wost defensive frontcourts in the NBA. If they don't play an up-tempo game, they are sunk.

The wild card here, though, is DeMar DeRozan. If he can come in and provide some slashing with an occasional stroke from the perimeter, the Raptors could become very difficult to defend.

Lastly, I just want to reiterate that they've done a great job building up their bench. Evans, Nesterovic, Jack, and Belinelli are all nice pickups that should come in and play to their strengths and help balance out Toronto's deficiencies in their starting lineup.

At this point, I do believe Toronto will be making their way back to the playoffs, if they stay healthy. But we'll have a better idea on the Turkoglu experiment once the season gets into gear.

14. Chicago

Does the Gordon departure hurt the Chicago Bulls this season? To some extent, it does, but don't be fooled by looking at what he did this postseason against the Boston Celtics. They still have Derrick Rose, whose potential is out of this world, as he has the ability to break out for a great season and could be considered the third-best PG in this league, in just his second year.

He will pick up the slack, and with John Salmons as his running mate in the backcourt, and Luol Deng returning, this Bulls team will be very dangerous.

15. Phoenix

The Suns are going to run again. Well, at least that should be fun to watch. But boy, they must be missing Boris Diaw and Raja Bell now. Jason Richardson is very much overrated and he is very much on the decline. He's not an ideal fit next to Steve Nash and I'm not sure he still has the legs to be effective in an up-tempo system.

Also, I don't quite understand what Steve Kerr is trying to do with them. They should be rebuilding. Instead, they're likely to give Robin Lopez starters' minutes in the hopes that he's the next Andersen Varejao or Joakim Noah. Does he have that potential? Sure. But I don't think this is the way to go about making him a better player.

If I were them, I'd pawn Richardson off to a team that needs him and take back a big man. They're better off giving Richardson's minutes to Barbosa than suffering issues in the frontcourt. The problem with this idea, though, is Richardson's massive contract that runs into 2011. Perhaps they could send him out to Philadelphia for Dalembert? Seems to work well for both sides, in my opinion.

In any case, there's a very decent possibility that Amare bolts in 2010. So I really have no idea what Kerr is doing here. He either has a good feeling that Amare will sign an extension, or he's banking that with Amare's contract coming off the books in 2010, he'll be able to sign someone of similar caliber or trade him for a pretty penny at the deadline.

Phoenix has a curious future, so we'll have to monitor their situation closely over the course of the season. They could be major players come the trade deadline.

Washington Wizards: A New Era

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:42:05 -0400

"LeBron James does it again, he has taken out the Washington Wizards!"

These are the highlights that have defined the Washington Wizards this decade. From calling one of the league's elite as overrated to hearing Jay Z diss an entire team, we witnessed it all. From crab dribbles to game winners, from Cleveland, Ohio to the Nation's Capital, from Deshawn Stevenson to LeBron James, if there's one thing fans in D.C recognize, it's humiliation.

"The Washington Wizards are the dumbest team of all time."

"Put this one in the books, the Cavaliers have defeated the Washington Wizards."

"Another year, another playoff exit for the Washington Wizards."

D.C. sports has not witnessed a championship since Joe Gibbs first tenure as Head Coach of the Washington Redskins in 1987. The Wizards alone have not won a Championship since Dick Motta was the Head Coach.

We have had 5 non-playoff seasons, 3 first round exits, and 1 second round exit this decade. Losing has been too relevant in D.C, but as our President once stated, If you're walking down the right path and you're willing to keep walking, eventually you'll make progress.

In the 2006-2007 season, the Wizards achieve first place in the East by the all-star break with their star trio of Arenas, Butler, and Jamison. However, about 10-15 games in the second half and of the season Arenas and Butler get injured and the team plummets without its two best players to the 7th seed with a record of 41-41. Eventually they get swept in the first round against none other than the Cleveland Cavaliers.

In 2007-2008 season, Arenas tries to comes back far too early from a micro-fracture surgery because it was his contract year and is gone in 13 games. However the improved play from Butler, Jamison, and Haywood plus the passing of Daniels gets the team to 43 wins, with the East very weak, we’re able to grab 5th seed. Haywood averaged 11 and 7 on a 58%TS while being one of the better defenders at the C position. Stevenson shoots 38% 3pt from three while taking 5 per game and becomes one of the better defensive stoppers in the league. This team takes the Cavaliers to 6 games, but ended up losing a controversial series which featured the likes of Jay Z and Soulja Boy, along with many on the court altercations.

In the 2008-2009 season, Haywood goes down with an injury in 6 games, and Stevenson battles a bad back and ankle for 32 games until he calls it quits. Antonio Daniels is traded for Mike James to cut cost, and the team goes into tanking mode, leaving Jamison and Butler with three solid players which have potiential in Nick Young, JeVale McGee, and Andray Blatche. Our genius interim coach, Ed Tapscott, felt these players only deserved 22, 15, and 24 minutes respectively, despite the fact that outside of these three players and our remaining two stars, no one else belonged on a NBA roster.

I could care less about a few assumptions, mainly because it's a bunch of half assed assessments about a team hardly anyone watches. The Wizards have a lot of "ifs" in the equation this year but a lot people are detracting from the Wizards on equally big "ifs" (as if that's really different than any other team). Yes, if they're going to succeed, they need Arenas to be healthy, and for young players like Blatche, Young, McGee, McGuire (how do I know that people don't pay attention to the Wizards, it's because McGuire's never mentioned, if they did pay attention, it'd be readily clear to anyone that McGuire is going to make a strong push for rotation minutes next season), and Crittenton to take the next step in their development to really be a factor making a strong push for the playoffs. But even then, they still have a relatively veteran team with Jamison, Butler, Haywood, and Miller there, along with a veteran coach (which will take good bit less adjusting than hiring a completely new coach), so they'll be able to score. And while their relative lack of defense might be a problem in the playoffs, it really isn't going to hurt them as much in the regular season as one might think.

The 42-40 record is a misnomer (which I've pointed out before) because the team as a whole wasn't healthy for the majority of it. Not to mention it happened three seasons ago and not four (see, this season hasn't happened yet). To add on to that, the fifth seed last season won 43 games (they didn't really improve either).

The top three teams improved to varying degrees and it's arguable if the Hawks improved (I guess Jamal Crawford is an upgrade), but outside of them (and maybe the Raptors), every other Eastern Conference team is at best treading water and hoping for improvement inside the organization rather than getting something from outside.

In Arenas case, the guy went through microfracture surgery. It takes a while to come back from it, but, in recent history, players coming back to their previous level typically in two year's time, see Amare and Kidd, have returned playing at a high level. Guess how long it has been for Arenas.

Stevenson had the surgery in March so he should be ready by opening day, if he’s still not fully recuperated then we use nick Young off the bench. Stevenson was as good a shooter as Mike Miller from three, but he’s a much better defender, so expect him to play some big minutes next year.

Here’s the most probable rotation this season:

PG: Gilbert Arenas — Randy Foye — Javaris Crittenton
SG: Mike Miller — DeShawn Stevenson — Nick Young
SF: Caron Butler — Dominic McGuire
PF: Antawn Jamison — Andray Blatche
C: Brendan Haywood — JaVale McGee — Fabricio Oberto

Stevenson, Butler, and Haywood are at least good defenders and Jamsion and Arenas offensive production more than makes up for whatever liabilities they may be on the defensive end easily, which are seriously overrated. All the bench players except for Miller and Young are good defenders and you can bet Young will get better simply to keep his job. The defense would only have to be average to win 50-55 games.

Offensively this team will be an absolute nightmare to defend. A healthy Arenas and Butler form one of the great perimeter scoring duos.

Again before micro-fracture Arenas put up 29 on a 58 TS percent in 05-06 and 28 on a 57 TS percent. Caron the third option just put up 21 on a 55 TS percent. The second option Jamison put up 22 on 55 percent TS.

At the pace Washington plays I don’t think these numbers would drop that much. Stevenson and Miller prevent helping by being such good shooters. Haywood as well considering he scores on 11 a 58 percent TS.

The Wizards offense (or the way Saunders has traditionally ran his offense) doesn't rely on one single playmaker to do all the work in the vein of the Jazz or the Hornets, so you don't have to worry about having one designated playmaker as long as you have a number of players who can spread the ball.

And they lost size in the trade, but Thomas and Pech didn't play at all, and really the Wizards had to get rid of Songaila if they wanted to develop McGee and Blatche further. None of the pieces they gave are is any big loss to what they got.

If this team is healthy, the question isn’t will this team make the playoffs it’s how far this team goes in the playoffs.

Yesterday's NBA vs.Today's NBA

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 18:30:03 -0400

A common myth–Today’s NBA is so much better/more athletic/insert BS term here, than the '80s and early '90s

You hear it all the time. Usually you hear it from people who only stand to profit if the masses buy into the idea that today’s NBA is better than the NBA of yesterday. In Jemele Hill’s disastrous train wreck article written two years ago, where she said that Kobe Bryant was better than Michael Jordan, her opinions on today’s NBA struck me as particularly blind.

For those who haven’t read Hill’s article, she basically concludes that Kobe Bryant is better than Michael Jordan, dismisses all empirical or objective indicators in favor of Jordan (MVPs, winning, statistics), makes a bunch of dumbfounding assertions, and then backs all of this up with:

Her opinion and pure speculation (“Jordan would have struggled to coexist with Shaq”—when she basically has no way of knowing that)

In that article, she also blindly asserts that today’s NBA is superior to the one that Jordan played in. This argument needs to be settled separate of any Kobe v. Jordan debate, because it’s so tired and thoroughly indefensible, it’s disgusting.

Let’s take a look at Jemele Hill’s disaster and compare the 06-07 NBA to the 89-90 NBA.

Jemele Hill’s “argument” and the counter-argument

“There was definitely a difference in the level of competition during Jordan's heyday compared to now.

Yesterday's NBA player certainly was more fundamentally sound, but there's no question that today's player is bigger, stronger and faster.”

First, isn’t being more fundamentally sound a huge thing?

The 02-03 Chicago Bulls were bigger, stronger and jumped higher than just about any team from the 1980s, but they lost 52 games because Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry and Eddie Robinson couldn’t do very basic things that Tom Coverdale and Dane Fife probably mastered by the third grade. Robinson is 6’9” with a vertical well over 40”, but he was always hurt, and really had no basketball “skill” whatsoever. Curry and Chandler have gone on to become at least competent to below average, but at that point, they would have made Chris Washburn wince.

What you’ve seen is a league where a player like Steve Nash can win an MVP by doing things that guards in the '80s who “didn’t suck” could do rather easily. John Stockton was old by 1997, when Nash was a rookie, and Nash struggled. Nobody watched him then and thought that he was fundamentally where John Stockton ever was. But that is how low expectations have become.

Expectations have become so low that Kirk Hinrich gets the star treatment in Chicago for doing basic things well and almost nothing spectacularly.

Take Hinrich’s old teammate Chris Duhon. Duhon was actually a second rounder, has almost no individual scoring ability, and yet he’s a prominent member of the Chicago Bulls. Why? Because he does things today that all point guards were expected to do in the 1980s fundamentally. John Paxson has taught the league a lesson.

When you can find a point guard with elite quickness and passing in today’s NBA, a point guard who doesn’t want to “show them that they can’t sleep on my scoring ability,” a point guard who is content to just quarterback an offense and play defense, you grab a hold of him and don’t let go. This is true regardless of any other glaring deficiencies in his game.

Or look at the Chicago Bulls overall. Who is very athletic at all on that team? Tyrus Thomas is, but he hasn’t played a lead role on that team, and he’s very incomplete as a basketball player being a three year proand all. Who is next? Luol Deng? Imagine Luol Deng being guarded by Scottie Pippen.

The Bulls are mocking the league (considering their record despite any sort of lock hall of famer). They won 41 games, the seventh best record in the Eastern Conference, by doing all the things that middle-of-the-road players like John Paxson were expected to do in the 1980s.

Fundamentals are a huge deal. If you’re not an intelligent observer, you could have let Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson fool you into thinking that supreme athleticism could overcome fundamental play. But there was a huge difference. Michael Jordan played under Dean Smith. He jumped like Vince Carter, but did the little things in a way that made Bobby Knight happy in 1984. Knight wasn’t only happy, he was beaming like Santa Claus. Think about that for a second.

At some point the games elite athletes took over, and then at some point after that, athletic players started to think that they could put on an “And 1” display and beat people.

It’s no wonder that the better teams and players today are usually in the extreme minority as fundamental superiors. By the time you reach the conference finals, you are usually reduced to the few teams that still play basketball like most teams had to play in the 1980s.

Forget fundamentals, what about just playing hard? Ronald Dupree has survived as NBA journeyman today by basically taking a Chris Doleman approach to basketball. Dupree makes Rodney McCray look like a legend of the game from a basketball skills standpoint.

Next, is the NBA really bigger, stronger and faster?

I was recently told that Yao Ming and Al Jefferson are two of the best five centers in the NBA. Are they bigger and stronger than any of the following players:

Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson
Moses Malone
Robert Parrish
Patrick Ewing
Brad Daugherty
Bill Laimbeer
Mark Eaton
Kevin Willis

Are they even bigger and stronger than Karl Malone and Charles Barkley? They may be taller than Barkley, but Karl Malone in his prime would look at both of these “centers” and basically be like “yeah, AND?”

What about Dirk Nowitzki? How many 1990 power forwards is he “stronger” than? I’ll tell you how Dirk would have fared in 1990. Say he played the Detroit Pistons. First, they would have clotheslined him a couple times, since that was basically legal in 1990 (imagine how much more athletic a '90s player looks when he isn’t being plucked out of mid-air WWF style).

Then Dennis Rodman would have followed him everywhere he went, would have been up in his chest like Lennox Lewis, and Isiah and Dumars would have been streaking in underneath ready to pick his dribble. Then Laimbeer and Mahorn would have taken turns fouling him in ways that would warrant a twenty game suspension in today’s league, and that’s about the last you would have heard of Dirk’s “beautiful basketball.” He would have been good back then, but he would not be an MVP candidate.

What about faster? Hill seems to think that McGrady and Carter are better players than Joe Dumars. Are they really faster side to side? There’s a reason that every NFL team doesn’t sport a bunch of 6’7” wide receivers. Because as you get taller, you lose quickness and your center of gravity raises, which causes less balance and agility.

Today’s players may jump higher, but they often get fewer opportunities to take off because they lack the quickness to clear the space needed to launch yourself without obstruction. Luol Deng jumps high, but can you ever see him beating Scottie Pippen off the dribble? I can’t even see him beating Larry Bird in a wash.

Here’s another thing to consider. A little secret if you will. Lean in. Steroids, human growth hormone and speed may not be confined to Major League Baseball and the NFL. There just might be some NBA players taking it. For legal purposes, I am not asserting that even one NBA player is juicing, but scientists have come out and said it.

The evolution of mankind cannot naturally take place in a way that will make athletes get noticeably bigger and faster in twenty years. And don’t start with the “supplements” stuff. They had whey protein in 1990, and health clubs with nice equipment were everywhere.

“When Jordan played, he was a singular force that could not be equaled. Jordan was guarded by the likes of John Starks and Joe Dumars, who were fine players but weren't nearly as skilled or physically imposing as LeBron, D-Wade, Tracy McGrady or even Vince Carter.”

Way to start out with about the tenth best shooting guard Jordan faced early in his career. That would be like referencing centers today and starting with Eddy Curry or Erick Dampier. Using that alarming lack of logic, I could craft this sentence:

“Kobe takes it to the paint against the likes of Erick Dampier and Tyson Chandler, who are fine centers, but aren’t nearly as skilled or physically imposing as Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Moses Malone, Patrick Ewing or even Robert Parrish.”

Yesterday’s positions against today’s positions

Let’s just break down today v. 1990 position by position. We’ll go top ten at each position in 2008-09, and since there were fewer teams, and starters in 1990, we’ll go top nine back then (for today’s players I will use cbssportsline’s player rankings, and for 1990 I will piece it together by referencing stats, leaders, etc.):

Shooting guard

2008-2009
Kobe Bryant 6’6” 220
Dwyane Wade 6’4” 212
Brandon Roy 6'6 215
Andre Iguodala 6’6” 207
Tracy McGrady 6’8” 223
Kevin Martin 6’7” 185
Ben Gordon 6’3” 200
Ray Allen 6'5 205
Joe Johnson 6'8 225
Manu Ginobili 6’6” 205

Average height/weight: ~6’6” 209

1989-90
Michael Jordan 6’6” 200
Clyde Drexler 6’7” 222
Reggie Miller 6’7” 195
Joe Dumars 6’3” 195
Mitch Richmond 6’5” 220
Ron Harper 6’6” 215
Rolando Blackmon 6’6” 190
Jeff Malone 6’4” 205
Hersey Hawkins 6’3” 190

Average height/weight: ~6’5.3” 203.5

Mitch Richmond? Ron Harper? They don’t want any of that Kevin Martin noise. I know Joe Dumars doesn’t want to throw down with Andre Iguodala. This is obviously opinion on my part, but I just haven’t talked to many people older than 20 who would call Carter, Iguodala, McGrady and Martin markedly better than Miller, Dumars, Richmond and Harper. My god an ancient Reggie Miller was still ripping up the league a few years ago.

As far as the weight difference of a whopping five pounds, do you really see Michael Jordan being affected by five lbs.? By the way, Michael Cooper is not even on that list. He’d be superior defensively to anyone at the SG position today, including Bruce Bowen. You remember Bowen right? When Michael was older in 1997, Bowen was 26-years-old.

So it stands to reason that a younger, faster Bruce Bowen would have been a force in that NBA, considering what he can do in today’s elite world, right? Wrong. Bruce Bowen was a CBA reject in 1997, playing one regular season minute for the Miami Heat. It’s interesting that CBA rejects and low-level journeymen (Doug Christie) could be so mediocre-bad in the 1990s, and yet, with older legs, be so good now.

See, the idea Hill wants you to get is that Jordan would have had a harder time today, because he would not have pulled his moves on bigger, more athletic defenders. But take the four big guys on that list. Bryant, McGrady, Carter and Davis. Only one of them is known for playing any defense at all, and that’s Bryant. As with height, you get slower when you get bigger. Tracy McGrady never even tried to guard the ancient Reggie Miller. He couldn’t. Miller at an older slower age would have lost McGrady around one screen just about every time.

You look at those two lists and tell me that the league is close today to what was in 1990, and/or as good. I’ll accept that. I disagree, but it’s an acceptable opinion. It is just not a self-evident truth that today’s league is markedly better.

More from Hill:

“Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson and Patrick Ewing will be among the best centers ever, but none of them affected the league the way Shaq and Tim Duncan have.”

Center

For the sake of discussion, I’m going to include Tim Duncan, because Hill does, even though cbs puts him with the power forwards.

2008-2009
Yao Ming 7’6” 310
Dwight Howard 6’11” 265
Tim Duncan 6’11” 260
Shaquille O’neal 7’1” 325
Al Horford 6'10 245
Amare Stoudemire 6’10” 245
Al Jefferson 6'10 265
Andris Biedrins 6'11 240
Emeka Okafor 6'10 252
Pau Gasol 7’0” 260

Average height/weight: ~6’11.7” 268.8

1989-90
David Robinson 7’1” 250
Hakeem Olajuwon 7’0” 255
Moses Malone 6’10” 260
Patrick Ewing 7’0” 255
Robert Parrish 7’1” 250
Brad Daugherty 7’0” 245
Bill Laimbeer 6’11” 260
Rik Smits 7’4” 250
Kevin Willis 7’0” 245

Average height/weight: 7’0.6” 252.2

What do we learn here?

I see bigger players like Shaq, Howard and Ming. O’neal is at the end of his rope, averaging a thoroughly unmoving 17.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 1.4 BPG. Moses Malone is the best center on the 1990 list that O’neal could spar with at this point in his career.

Amare Stoudemire isn’t even known for defense. His impact in the post offensively is unquestionable, but he gets dunked on by mediocre players. He’s the perfect example of how a bigger and more athletic player can look when he lacks fundamentals, positioning and a feel for the game.

Ming is soft, brittle and not known for being a great defender. Yao, who is largely a media creation, and a product of David Stern’s fanatical desire to tap international markets, is having a solid year at 20.0 PPG, 10.0 RPG and 2.0 BPG. His 10 RPG and 2.0 BPG are thoroughly unimpressive.

As players, in their 2008-2009 form, how many centers in today’s league could rank third on the 1990 list? Zero. By not only opinion, but any empirical measure. Shaq and Duncan used to warrant that consideration, as Howard will one day, but right now, no one does.

Cleveland Cavaliers: My Dream Offseason

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 21:43:40 -0400

So my first thought already happened, Receiving Shaq, for Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavs, 2010 second rounder and $500,000.

The Shaq trade benefits use and gives us that tall defender we could really use against D12, Bynum, Gasol and other big centers that play physical.

The draft disappointed me in a way, but also didn't surprise me in others. When we were on the clock at pick No. 30, we drafted a undrafted player from overseas.

I knew the selection was made to save money however we need guys who can come in and play now. Left on the board were Blair and Young—both guys could of came in and play now and help us win the title.

Our second time on the clock was for pick No. 46. We selected Danny Green from UNC. I was happy with this pick because we have a scorer and a lengthy defender in Danny Green.

However I was more determined to select a point guard, solving our issues at the backup point guard spot with Patrick Mills from Saint Mary's, or solve our bench scoring issue with Dionte Christmas from Temple.

Overall I thought we could of done better, but will see how things go on with Danny Green, hopefully he'll pan out to replace Wally and/or Sasha Pavs.

Enough with the draft onto the free agency, trading, re-signs, etc.

With the Free Agent signing period starting tomorrow, I would expect the Cavs front office to be working the phone lines 24/7, because there are a few free agents or guys I'm really hoping to receive.

One of them is Charlie Villanueva. Charlie V has that athleticism to help us at the four spot, and he has the ability to play the pick-n-pop—reference Z and LeBron James did it all last year.

Charlie V is also young which means him and Varejao can log long minutes while our older guys, Z and Shaq can log about 20-30 minutes a game and our upcoming young guys, Darnell Jackson, JJ Hickson can learn from our set of big-men and can improve. I am hoping CV signs around the MLE.

The other free agent big-man I want to get if he doesn't get resigned by the Lakers would be LaMar Odom. A 6'10" shooter can play the perimeter or can play in the post and has the ability to defend a lot of defenders.

He could also be a huge impact player for us this next season. I am hoping if he does come to Cleveland which is highly unlikely that he comes around to $5-7 million with a one year $6 million or two years 12-13 million dollar deal.

Now onto Perimeter players, I would be ecstatic if we received major interest from Trever Ariza. A young perimeter player would could play the two or three.

Ariza can shoot the open 3-ball and run the floor extremely well which would be huge because you know what happens when LBJ runs the floor. Now he will have another option if we sign Trever Ariza. This would also be apart of the replacement of Wally/Sasha deal and also would be playing Next to LBJ/Danny Green as the two or three spot on the floor.

For the point guard spot I think we should trade Gibson/Darnell Jackson for Earl Watson from OKC. He's small, which Mike Brown doesn't like, but he has a good shooting range and understands the point guard spot. Watson could also could play the other guard position if needed.

In terms of re-signing players, the only guy I really want back on this team for the 2009-2010 season is Anderson Varejao.

He's a major part of the success of the team last year and needs to stay. He's the low post bruiser and he's developing an a perimeter shot, very slowly however. He is a great player for the Cavs and defends the KG, Bosh, stat guys that Z couldn't handle or Ben Wallace at the time because of size, quickness and lateral speed.

We need to let Joe Smith, Wally, Zo walk away from the team because Wally was a very weak defender and the guys went right by him ever time.

Joe Smith because he is getting older and becoming less of a force and it looks like his knee's are giving out.

Zo because all he did was ride the bench for free..I think he only played in like 10 games of the season and most of them were early season.

Those are my hopefuls/thoughts etc

I hope it wasn't too long and more updates will becoming from me as the FA period gets underway and trades start happening.

-Runningballer23 from btabasketball.com/forums

NBA Has Changed Since The 90's

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 19:25:47 -0400

Not to reminisce, but the NBA has definitely changed since the mid 90's, and most of the changes are negatives. Just look at the changes that are in today's league compared to the league not too long ago (mid-90's for example):

1. Softer Rules: These days, the defensive rules are much softer, giving the offensive player more of an advantage. Offensive players get to the hoop with ease, and don't pay for getting to the hoop like they did in the 90's or even 2000. Basically, every touch is a foul these days.

It wasn't like that before. The exception to giving the offensive players the advantage is one major thing—flopping.

2. Flopping: This has really ruined the game. With the influx of European and South American players (it's far more common there), flopping has become so prevalent in today's league. From Ginobili to Harris to Fisher to Varejao to Oberto to Horry and even Raja Bell, flopping is a sad reality.

Why is it sad? Because I would rather see a big time block or hard-nosed defense rather than someone faking a fall like that. Basically, there are far more whistles than in yesterday's game.

3. More three-point shooting, less mid range shooting: This has really changed on the offensive end.

It might have come about because of the rule changes for zone defense. Although I do enjoy the three-point shot as much as the next fan, I am missing that mid-range jump shot which was more common in the past. The only guys I see who still have it are Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Richard Hamilton, and Luol Deng.

Back then, basically everyone had a mid-range game. The mid-range jumper for all the young players out there is definitely an advantageous move because it basically gives you another option so the defense doesn't know what you're going to do (take it to the hole, shoot a three, or the mid-range game).

4. More individual game, less of a team game: Of course, there are exceptions, but predominantly, the game has become a little more one-on-one as opposed to team ball.

LeBron James on the Cavaliers is a prime example. Coach Brown just gives it to LeBron and lets him go one-on-five instead of having a good offensive scheme—it's awful to watch.

Also, the game advertises superstars a lot more than great teams. This really ticks me off. Why doesn't the league advertise teams like the Spurs, the Suns, Lakers, Hornets, Celtics, etc.?

5. The small ball game: As a point guard-type player, I really like this part of the game that's changed. Basically, teams have gone to more small ball. Point guards and shooting guards are dominant in our league today compared to yesterday, where the centers dominated. Just look at the best guards now compared to the great big men back then:

Now:
Kobe Bryant - SG
Chris Paul - PG
Allen Iverson - SG
Dwyane Wade - SG
Deron Williams - PG
Steve Nash - PG
Gilbert Arenas - PG
Tracy McGrady - SG
Caron Butler - SG
Tony Parker - PG
Manu Ginobili - SG
Chauncey Billups - PG

Back then:
Hakeem Olajuwon - C
Shaquille O'Neal - C
David Robinson - C
Patrick Ewing - C
Karl Malone - PF
Charles Barkley - PF

Teams are running more, but we have still yet to see a running team win a championship. San Antonio, Detroit, and Miami were all half-court teams.

BTA's 2009 NBA Mock Draft Extended

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Fri, 29 May 2009 17:15:09 -0400

AboveLegit's NBA Mock Draft 2009
5/28/2009

1. Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF, Sophomore, Oklahoma
The Clippers will be taking Blake Griffin. There iare no exceptions, you take this type of talent 10 times out of 10. Even with a solid frontcourt, they will take Blake and build around him, as well as Gordon and Thornton. They will ship Kaman out of Los Angeles for a player like Luol Deng, who can make an impact on offense and defense, and surround the Blake with a good nucleus of young players.

Their main focus is rebuilding. I have always said franchises should build around big men, and they will do so here. They drafted Eric Gordon last year at the guard position, so there is absolutely no need to draft a player like Rubio or Thabeet here.

2. Memphis Grizzlies: Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain
He's always had skills that are advanced for someone his age, but how wll these skills actually translate to the NBA? . He's got very good court vision, he's smart (although seems like a bit of a diva), he's got a fire, and his shot has been coming along very well. I don't see what about him doesn't make him at least a No. 2 pick. If you take him and Griffin out of this draft, you basically get another 2006 draft, but with those two alone, you have a much better draft.

Look at what happened to the Clippers in 1998 when they drafted for need. They wound up with Michael Olowokandi, who did legitimately seem like the best big man of that draft. But there were clearly better players right behind him on the draft board at other positions. Griffin is the clear cut best talent in this draft, Rubio is the clear cut second best talent in this draft. When someone is clearly in a different class of talent, you don't dip to a class below just to fill a need.

Will he wind up being the second best player in the draft? Who knows. But right now he clearly looks like the second best guy in this draft.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder: Hasheem Thabeet, C, Junior, Conneticut
For me, this is between Harden and Thabeet. Harden gives them another good scoring option, but I don't know how well he'd fit in with Westbrook in the backcourt, who plays a hybrid guard style.

With Thabeet, they don't get much of an offensive player at all, but with Durant, Green, and Westbrook in the starting lineup, they really don't need another scorer. Yes, Thabeet will be a bit of a risk, but I think it's fairly safe to say that he'll be a good defender. So, based on team chemistry and needs.

I don't see how he wouldn't fit into their team. He has excellent character and intangibles (OKC is very big on this atm), he's good defensively, and his offensive skills would go really well with Westbrook and Durant. He doesn't look to shoot and has great passing skills, which would make up for Westbrook's mentality. I think he would be a great complimentary player for this team.

4. Sacramento Kings: Brandon Jennings, PG, International
I'm thinking they go with Jennings here. They already have their wing spots filled along with a project in Donte' Greene. They need to draft a player that can come in and make an immediate impact on a position of need.

That's why I believe if they can't move up in the draft, they'll settle for Jennings which isn't too bad of an idea at all. Jennings was possibly a lock for a top 3 spot if he decided to stay with Arizona and show the country his talents in the Pac-10.

5. Washington Wizards: James Harden, SG, Sophomore, Arizona State

Harden is the most balanced shooting guard in this draft, above Evans, DeRozan, etc. Drafting him only helps the Wizards backcourt. Seeing as how Arenas is coming off an injury plagued season, they need Harden to take the load off on offense, while maintaining a good defensive game throughout the season. I wanted DeRozan here, but due to his weak defensive play in his freshmen year, I was forced to pick James Harden.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves: DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, Freshmen, USC
At 6'7, DeRozan has the ability to spread out the defense, and give versatility to this Wolves roster by playing the two and three spots. He has a very wide ranged offensive arsenal, which the Wolves desperately need, due to the lack of support from All Jefferson's cast. Pair up DeMar with Randy Foye in the backcourt, and you have a a great future ahead of you. More importantly, they will fill in the hole at SG, which they need to act upon now if they want to move ahead and worry about other positions.

7. Golden State Warriors: Jordan Hill, PF, Junior, Arizona
The Warriors get a steal here by filling in their major hole at the power forward position. They need to pair up Andris Biedrins with another post presence who is good on the defensive end. Hill fits that mold perfectly. Many expect another guard to be drafted here, but I suspect the Warriors to heavily shop their current pick if they are not able to grab a big man in this first round. With their large array of guards, they will have no hesitation in drafting a power forward .

8. New York Knicks: Stephen Curry, PG, Junior, Davidson
Curry is their man. They have already stated on numerous occasions that they will choose him if he's available. And frankly, I'm quite pleased with this move. Curry will be able to spread out the floor with his three point shooting abilities. The Knicks have desperately needed that type of player since Jamal Crawford got traded to the Warriors.

And it seems like D"Antoni and Walsh think they can develop him into a great PG on the NBA level by trading for Nash and have him mentor Curry. But if they draft Curry, I hope Walsh trades for a SG to make up for Curry's weaknesses.

I like Sefolsha a lot, and with rumors of OKC trying to get Rubio or Harden, he could be expendable. A player like Sefolsha would be perfect next to curry, ashe plays great D, and is able to drive in.

9. Toronto Raptors: Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, Freshmen, Memphis
This is an obvious pick for the Raptors, because they need a combo guard who can produce on the offensive end. He's getting a great backcourt mate in Calderon, who will find him and maximize his potential, and I'm sure the front office is aware of that.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Johnny Flynn, PG, Sophomore, Syracuse
With Redd's career winding down, they need that primary scorer for their future, and someone they can hopefully build around. Flynn is instant offense. Every scouting report has him as one of the premier scorers of this class, the Bucks have to pick him here. He will be splitting time with Sessions, but I think it comes in his favor later on, as I was against him declaring for the draft so early in his NCAA Career.

11. New Jersey Nets: James Johnson, SF/PF, Sophomore, Wake Forest
I have really been impressed with him as of late, and his stock has slowly been on the rise. He is 6'8, but incredibly strong and athletic, and can play the three and the four. He has a great offensive skillset, he is a great shooter, he can dribble, penetrate, and move without the ball, which would fit perfectly in the Net's offensive system. Vince could be on his way out either this offseason or the next. I think it's safe to say James will replace him as they officially go into rebuilding mode for the next few seasons.

12. Charlotte Bobcats: Gerald Henderson, SG, Junior, Duke
The Bobcats are on the verge of erasing their bad draft history as Adam "the stache" Morrison was recently traded and Sean "triple chin" May's contract will not be renewed. While Morrison brought his trademark white trash moustache to the NBA, he forgot to bring his game. Morrison has struggled to get playing time and will continue to do so, as he lacks the athletic ability to compete on a daily basis.

While the other former lottery pick has had trouble just staying helathy enough to even be on the active roster. The only baskets May has contributed on lately in Charlotte is the demolition of his "get well soon" pastry and cheese gift baskets.

The Bobcats can finally redeem themselves by selecting Henderson to be their eventual starting two guard. I can't see Henderson being a star in the leagu, but he can definately carve out a niche for himself as a Raja Bell type player. Fortunately for Henderson, if he is drafted by the Cats, he will be Bell's backup and who better to mould him into a Raja Bell type player than......well, Raja Bell. Henderson can beat expectations if his defensive intensity translates to the NBA game and his shooting range continues to expand.

13. Indiana Pacers: DeJuan Blair, PF, Sophomore, Puttsburgh
Indiana is in a tough spot. They have a bunch of alright players but no really good players besides Danny Granger. This makes it hard to see who they want to replace and who they think they can build on. A lot will depend on whether they let Marquis Daniels and Jarret Jack walk. If they keep both of those guys, a guy like DeJuan Blair would make sense for them. If not, they will need a replacement for those guys.

Blair would give them someone who isn't afraid to do all the dirty work inside and I think they could use someone like that.

14. Phoenix Suns: Ty Lawson, PG, Junior, North Carolina
I still believe Ty Lawson is a lottery pick. This is the best situation for him, and I think the Suns realize the talent level this kid possesses. His maturity and in-game leadership is phenomenal. He has three years of and one National Championship under his belt, so he will bring a winning attitude to this roster. With Nash's window slowly coming to a close, they need to find his successor. Lawson has the most potential out of all these available PG's, he will become a sure star talent in a few years from now.

15. Detroit Pistons: Terrence Williams, SG, Senior Louisville
This is probably the best pick for the Pistons. Williams has great athleticism, he can score, penetrate, and is a great defender, which will work well with the Pistons young nucleus of Affalo, Stuckey, and Maxiell. He isn't a great ball handler, and does turn the ball over a lot, but he is a sure pick for the Pistons, who are in dire need to get back to the top of the Eastern Conference. The only way to do so is by drafting defensive oriented players.

16. Chicago Bulls: Earl Clark, SF, Junior, Louisville
This pick is solely based off of my offseason predictions, as I thoroughly believe the Bulls will go after Chris Kaman via trade with the Clippers, in exchange for small forward Luol Deng. He would be the best replacement for Luol, not as great on the offense end by any means, but he makes up for it with his excellent defensive abilities, high basketball IQ, and great rebounding skill.

17. Philadelphia Sixers: Eric Maynor, PG, Senior, VCU
Another PG coming off his four year NCAA Career, Maynor possesses great range on his jumper and shoots at a very high percentage. He is a superb athlete, has a nice smooth game, and plays well on the fast break, something which the Sixers love to do with Iguodala. Their current starting PG, Andre Miller, is supposedly out, leaving them with no choice but to draft a replacement. I do not believe Louis Williams is the answer for them, as he is good off the bench, but in no way does he possess the talent and poise to be a starting point guard in the NBA.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, Freshmen, UCLA
I was against Jrue leaving the NCAA early, after all he is coming off a great freshmen year, he is still a bit raw and could be a potential top five pick in a year or two. He is a great defender, versatile, is a combo guard, and loves to work the pick and roll. With Minnesota's coaching staff unfinished, there is still a lot to be told here, but from my basic knowledge, he would fit perfectly in their system (based off of last season).

After drafting DeMar DeRozan with their first pick, they draft another guard, strenghtening the backcourt. Holiday and Foye will split minutes at the onespot, while playing a lot of the SG role, thus moving DeRozan to the three position.

19. Atlanta Hawks: Jeff Teague, PG, Sophomore, Wake Forest
Mike Bibby will be out of Atlanta in a year or two, leaving a hole at the PG spot. Though they have Acie as their primary back up for Bibby, it wouldn't be enough to fully contend for a playoff spot consistently for the next five years. Teague brings great athleticism, confidence, and a terrific scoring ability. Since he reminds me a lot of a young Mike Bibby, he would learn a lot from the Hawks organization, and more importantly, their current starting PG.

20. Utah Jazz: B.J. Mullens, C, Freshmen, Ohio State
Another young, raw player who I was very disappointed with after hearing their declaration for the draft. He has a tremendous upside, but does not have a great work ethic and has a below average basketball IQ. Very reliable in the post, he can can finish with both hands, and would do wonders for this Utah Jazz squad who are still looking for a stud big man. They drafted Koufus last season, but he didn't exacly come out as planned. I think B.J. is the only choice for them here.

21. New Orleans Hornets: Austin Daye, SF/PF, Sophomore, Gonzaga
The Hornets need help on offense and defense. They didn't do well this year mainly due to injuries and the lack of depth. Austin is a great defender, and an amazing blocker, averaged over two a game in his Sophomore year. Byron Scott can very easily play him at the 3, matching him with David West and Tyson Chandler in the front court. This way they can become a more defensive minded team, along with James Posey and Chris Paul, who are exceptionally well rounded defensive studs.

22. Dallas Mavericks: Chase Budinger, SG/SF, Junior, Arizona
With the lack of big men in the draft, the Mavs have no choice but to draft a guard/forward. They want to keep Jason Terry on the bench to start games, I think placing a big two like Chase in the starting lineup would help them a lot, especially on offense, where they seem to struggle starting off games. He is a great three point shooter, and very intelligent, can move without the ball, and would give Dirk a little more freedom on the block downlow when he gets hammered with double teams.

23. Sacramento Kings: Tyler Hansborough, PF, Senior, North Carolina
This would be a great pick for the Kings. They get an offensive stud with Tyler, who can create his own shot and get others involved without throwing up to many bricks. He isn't great on defense, doesn't possess strong, athletic abilities, and isn't a quick player. He would do well on the Kings, he will get playing time at the three and four spots, and would possibly be a reliable rookie off the bench.

24. Portland Trailblazers: Darren Collison, PG, Senior, UCLA
An experienced PG, played all four years at UCLA, with a great feel for the game. A great playmaker, terrific defender, and has a great skillset on offense when it comes to scoring. He is a leader, he can come in to the league and make a suden impact, but does get passive at times with the ball in his hands, and isn't a great shot creator.

I like this pick a lot for the Blazers. They haven't been content with Steve Blake this year. Iif Darren surprises them, I wouldn't be too shocked if Collison gets the nod as the starting PG. He's another steal of this draft.

25. Oklahoma City Thunder: Gani Lawal, PF, Sophomore, Georgia Tech
Love his rebounding and midrange game, reminds me a lot of Udonis Haslem, possesses a great frame and a long wingspan. A great hustle player, loves to play around the basket, and an excellent shot blocker. The Thunder need to add quality depth to their frontcourt, so this is a huge pick if Lawal slips to 25.

26. Chicago Bulls: Wayne Ellington, SG, Junior, North Carolina
Coming off a national championship, Wayne will be confident and will get his minutes. He reminds me a lot of Dequean Cook, a good player off the dribble, who can move without the ball, and will knock down threes. He is nothing more than a liability on defense, but makes up for it when he's hot from the field. With Gordon's contract almost up, they need some insurance at the SG position, I like Wayne at 26.

27. Memphis Grizzlies: Sam Young,SF/PF, Senior, Pittsburgh
I got a few chances at watching this kid at Pitt. He is a tough player in the paint with good athleticism. He has a solid midrange game, combined with a knack for grabbing rebounds. He's a smart player. I think Memphis will enjoy this pick they need some depth in their front court, they couldn't get a center here, but they get some help on offense and defense, and more importantly helps out Marc Gasol.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves: Nick Calathes, PG/SG, Florida
Many people are high on this kid. He has great court vision and a good feel for the game. Reminds me a lot of Ty Lawson. He can do it all. He is a great scorer, has a nice perimeter game and is a solid off the dribble, he makes great passes, but gambles a lot, and is a great rebounder for his size at 6'5.

29. Los Angeles Lakers: Patrick Mills, PG, Sophomore, Saint Mary's
A lot like Aaron Brooks, Patrick is an undersized PG who thrives off of his speed and intelligence. He is a very mature playmaker, with a decent three point shot, and is a very good penetrator. The Lakers are in need of a PG, though I don't see Mills getting a ton of action. He may develop into a decent role player one day.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers: Marcus Thornton, SG, Senior, LSU
A great pick for Cleveland, as they get an experienced senior SG to fill in some holes in their roster. He averaged over 21 PPG, as he fits in perfectly with the Cavs offense. He is great off of screens, loves to move without the ball, and is a great set shooter. I think he will do fine in the league, will see some playing time, especially since Wally's contract is expiring soon.

LeBron James: An Unstoppable Force

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Sat, 16 May 2009 12:54:54 -0400

You may of heard about him before. He's a 6'9'', 280 pound man-child that might be the most unique small-forward to ever play the game of basketball. Two months ago he went into Staples Center and let Kobe and the Lakers control him and his team, easily defeating them.

The LeBron/Kobe matchup was a blast to watch, but the game itself really showed that basketball is a team game, and the other four players on the court are just as important and essentially win the game for you.

The next day an article out of the Bay Area (Golden State Warriors land) stirred up some discussion. Legend Rick Barry was quoted in his observation of LeBron:

Zinger from the Bay: In anticipation of James' annual stop in the Bay Area on Friday, Golden State Warriors great Rick Barry is greeting the Cavs' star with a zinger. In an interview with Comcast SportsNet Bay Area that will air tonight, Barry said he's alarmed James hasn't fixed some areas of his game and also sends one across the bow of the Cavs' coaching staff.
"He's got major flaws in his game," Barry said. "He's six years into the NBA. How can a man six years into the NBA with his talent have a major flaw in his shot? How can he not use screens effectively? . . . I watch the game very carefully, he doesn't use screens effectively and this is not LeBron's fault. It's the fault of the people who are teaching him. . . . there is no doubt in my mind that LeBron, if shown these things would do them, because he wants to be a great player, he wants to win a championship. As great as he is, he should be better.

Rick Barry might be right. LeBron's jumper isn't what you would call fundamentally sound exactly (too much arm/elbow involved). He has quite a few "flaws" in his game, just like any other player in the game.

The thing is, we tend to just overlook any missing aspects of his game because he is such an explosive and unique player.

While the casual fan will usually use the argument that LeBron's only weakness is his jumper, well, I tend to nit-pick and go a little deeper. What stands out the most for me (aside from his suspect jumper), would be his lack of developing a post-up game.

Many of us forget LeBron has been in the league for over five years now; this is his sixth season. You think in five-plus years he would develop some type of back-to-the-basket game, right? All the greats like Jordan and Kobe had such a wide array of moves. Jordan's baseline post-up fadeaway was such an unstoppable shot.

Kobe's mid-post game is nearly perfect; his foot-work is flawless, and his shot effective. So why don't we ever see LeBron posting up? With his height he could easily post-up anyone in the mid-range effectively, and with his size/strength he could be very successful on the low-block utilizing an up-and-under or other relatively fundamental post moves.

I know I am nit-picking here, but after five years you think his game would expand a little more than it has.

This doesn't take away all the improvements he has made, not at all. He turned a really inconsistent jumper into a pretty reliable one, albeit a streaky one. He has improved his passing and rebounding respectively. Even this year he came in with an improved defensive mindset and leadership.

But I still think he leaves so much more to be wanted. You look at his stats: since his second season the kid has really been the exact same in every year; a 30-point per game scorer, and a guy that can give you 7 assists and 7 rebounds, as well as close to two steals and a block.

He isn't really blocking any more shots or getting any more steals than the rest of his career; it's just the media telling us he has become this unstoppable defensive force.

Of course, Rick Barry and myself could be entirely wrong. James has made steps every year, albeit not major, and at the age of 24 who's to say he doesn't develop an all around game without a weakness by 28? I just hope he does, for the sake of the sport and his own career.

He is a player that depends on pure athleticism so greatly; towards the latter parts of his career as he hits 30, well, I guess my question is really how will he maintain the kind of level he is at? When he can't run and jump twice as fast and high as every other guy, how can he stay this effective?

Players like Jordan and Kobe had/have very reliable jumpers, in combination with a post-up game, exquisite footwork, and other seamless fundamentals that allow them to score without jumping out of the roof. What's LeBron going to do?

All the discussion created by Rick Barry in the Bay Area(Golden State Warriors country) about Lebron's weak jumper stirred up some heated conversation. Guess what? A few nights later LeBron James had his answer for Rick Barry, and all of us overly skeptical fans...but why bother using words when you are LeBron James?

Video

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Kobe Bryant's Downfall, Dwyane Wade's Rise

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Sat, 09 May 2009 15:13:33 -0400

Kobe Bryant vs Dwyane Wade

In the never-ending discussion that is Kobe Bryant’s fans jumping out of bushes and declaring him better than player X, there is always a new turn, always a new event, always a new player.

First it was Jordan, then the evidence as Kobe got older showed he is no Jordan, then he played well again and Kobe fans brought Jordan up, then they were harshly rebuked recently on that front, and now they turn their attention to Dwyane Wade.

For now, Kobe fans are content to act as if the Jordan v. Kobe debate never happened, because Kobe was just eliminated from the playoffs. They’re secretly waiting.

See, they never want to have that discussion when Kobe is down, but when he is playing his very best, all the sudden..that is the way he plays 100 percent of the time, and he’s “the next Jordan only better!” (insert gay [meant literally, not regarding homosexual people] corporate salesman voice)…

Their mission for now? Preserve the “second front.” Jordan fans cannot be fought on one front, so they are content for a momentary surrender there, while they turn their unbridled opinions and pure speculation on Wade fans.

The main arguments appear to be:

“Kobe Bryant is better than Wade. Wade is very good, but he just isn’t as good as Kobe. The reason I know that this is true, is because I think that Kobe is better than Wade. And my factual justification of that is that Kobe Bryant is the best player in the NBA. And I know this because I think so, therefore it is.”

“Kobe Bryant has three rings, and Wade has one.”

“Even if you think Wade led his team to a ring, and that Kobe’s three rings came as second fiddle, it is only because Kobe played with Shaq in his prime, a role that would render any player to second fiddle. Therefore I know that Wade would have been second fiddle.

“Kobe Bryant has the ability to score at any time from anywhere, and his higher PPG show he is the better scorer.”

Let's throw all the unbridled opinion, proof by the negative, and pure speculation out, and go with a factual analysis where I will make my conclusion, and also lay out the possible conclusions.

Opinion vs Fact

Before we can continue on, we must establish parameters for the argument. Everyone has an opinion. But Kobe fans like to give you pure opinion, speculation, and proof based on the negative.

An example would be a statement like, “you can’t prove that Wade would have been the No. 1 option on the '00-02 Lakers.” Okay, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that someone could prove that Wade would have been the second option either.

To have a discussion like this, first it helps to have two players in the same era, which we have. Then you must do it at the same ages. Just like you can’t compare Wade at 25 to Kobe at 20, you can’t compare Kobe at 28 to Wade at 26.

Since their only common ages are from 23-26, that is what we’ll be looking at. We also won’t be looking at their first four years, which would be unfair to Kobe, since he was 17-20 over that time.

You must control for same ages and then look at real objective sources of persuasion; like postseason awards, statistics, rings, and the role each player played on that team.

Statistics

First let’s take a look at the stat lines from ages 23-26:

Kobe Bryant 01-05 293 games
26.8 PPG 5.99 RPG 5.62 APG 1.69 SPG 0.62 BPG 44.9% FG 83.4% FT

Dwyane Wade 03-07 264 games
23.8 PPG 5.0 RPG 6.40 APG 1.70 SPG 0.80 BPG 48.0% FG 77.7% FT

First let's look at scoring. Kobe is better in PPG, FT%, and although I don't count it as a significant stat, I'm sure he is better at three point FG% and three point field goals made. Wade is better at FG% though, and not significantly worse in PPG.

We're talking a difference of 3.0 PPG (the fact that Wade was a rookie for one of these years and hurt for one of these years is not significant...it is unfair to Kobe to hand lollipops out to Wade for such things).

Before we get into adjusted FG% (which would be tedious to add up for Bryant over the course of four years), let's just look at the amount of points per FGA.

Over these years, here are the FGA per game statistics:

Kobe Bryant 20.55 FGA per game
Dwyane Wade 17.01 FGA per game

Now, here are the points per FGA:

Kobe Bryant 1.30 PPFGA
Dwyane Wade 1.39 PPFGA

So before we get into adjusted FG%, and the perceived importance of the three point shot in today's game, we can see that by any measure, Wade is the more efficient scorer. So that the analysis breaks down like this...add all the stats together:

Kobe = Better volume scorer, but not significantly
Wade = More efficient scorer, but not significantly

The rest of the stats are a push. Bryant leads in RPG, Wade leads in BPG and APG, and they're a virtual tie in SPG. Which leads us to the only statistical conclusion one can make...Statistically speaking, neither player has an edge. It's as close of a push statistically as I've ever seen between two players.

Advantage: Neither

Postseason Awards:

MVPS: None
Defensive Player of the Year Awards: None
Finals MVPs:

Kobe Bryant 0
Dwyane Wade 1

There isn't a wealth of info here, however, Wade wins pretty clearcut. You either win things or you don't. And even Wade's biggest detractors do not allege that he failed to absolutely take over the 2006 NBA Finals.

Advantage: Wade

Rings:

Kobe Bryant 3
Dwyane Wade 1

However, it is the role a player has in winning that ring that counts. If a ring was a ring was a ring was a ring, Steve Kerr would be better in this than both players. That is not the case.

Kobe Bryant was the clear second option on the 00-02 Lakers, whereas Dwyane Wade nearly doubled the scoring output of Shaquille O'neal in the 2006 Finals.

Shaq was actually the third leading scorer on the Heat in that series behind Wade and the very flawed Antoine Walker. Shaq has also seen his production drop significantly from 01-02 to 05-06.

Wade was the clear leader of the Heat, and leading a team to a ring has always been considered more significant than riding coattails, which Kobe did as Shaq won all three Finals MVPs during the Lakers run.

Even the best second fiddles like Pippen, Havlicek (with Russell), and McHale are only considered as being marginal in any overall discussion of the greatest players.

Wade did something else that is very significant when he led the '06 Heat to the title. Along with Hakeem Olajuwon ('94) he became the second player since 1979 to lead a team to a ring without the help of a star in his prime.

Wade basically took on the second hardest task that a player in my lifetime has taken on in leading a team to a ring. Only Hakeem ('94) was working with less ammunition.

Kobe's fans like to say that Wade would not have led the '00-'02 Lakers. There are two things that counteract that statement.

1. Kobe Bryant did lead the '03 and '04 Lakers, as for the first time in his career, he became the Lakers leading scorer in both seasons, over Shaquille O'neal. The Lakers lost. Once in a Finals series where they were heavily favored and yet Bryant shot 37 percent from the field.

In that 2004 NBA Finals Bryant was the same age (25) as Wade was when he delivered vs Dallas. So Bryant had his chance in that role, and failed.

2. If you look at Wade v. O'neal, from 23-26, you could argue that Wade would have led O'neal from '00-'02, because Wade's resume is actually more impressive. O'neal did not win his first ring until age 27, Wade was 25.

By Wade's age, O'neal had no rings and no Finals MVPs. Now I'm not suggesting that it's automatic that Wade would lead O'neal, just that he makes a more compelling case than Bryant.

However Bryant did win three rings as a second option, so based on the facts, I'm going to conclude:

Slight Advantage: Wade

Conclusion

My conclusion, based on the facts, is that so far, at the same common ages in the league, Wade has a very slight advantage over Bryant. As both players wind down their careers, this really is a neck-and-neck battle that could go either way. After examining the facts, I am surprised to see that it is closer than I thought.

Could one look at these facts and pick Bryant? Sure. This is not as clearcut as Jordan vs Bryant. But, even if one does so, they could not pick Bryant by a lot...not based on the facts

Building a Franchise..

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Mon, 04 May 2009 20:07:35 -0400

Baseball has moneyball, the NFL has Ron Wolf's philosophy that you should "spend your high picks on linemen, get a good QB, and you can pick Robert Brooks late in the draft," but what about the NBA? What are the shortcuts to success if you plan to compete on the same level as the Packers and Athletics have competed on?

This is going to be the beginning of a large project for me, and by reading this you are acknowledging that anything you read is strictly my property.

I believe there is a way to build in the NBA. There is a set of philosophies that very few teams are following, and yet, if you follow them, you can always be a good year or two away from being a legitimate contender.

So here goes...

1. Get lucky

As time has gone on, I have been convinced that you are what you draft. Since 1991, 10 champions have been based in some way around an uber No. 1 pick like Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan or Robinson.

In that time, six more have been won by Michael Jordan, who only failed to be a No. 1 pick because Hakeem was there and because Portland had Drexler from the previous draft.

Only two teams have won despite having a player that makes most reasonable people say "hey, they got lucky." In the case of Los Angeles and Miami having Shaq, he may not have been drafted there, but, due to weather and other factors external to the effectiveness of management, they were pre-selected by him as his preferred destination.

But that leads to an important question. Most of the time, you will not luck into Shaquille O'Neal or Tim Duncan. Most of the time, you won't even luck into Derrick Rose or the third pick Michael Jordan. Ninety-nine percent of the time, you will be building your team much more like a poker player than if you had the settling assurance of having a player like Jordan.

That leads us to the next square on the board game if you will.

2. When you don't get lucky, don't commit to a wrong way that looks like the right way.

The fact is, most NBA fans don't know the intricacies of the game. By any logical estimation, 95 percent of NBA fans will look at a 50-win team, be satisfied, and have no thought whatsoever of the future chances of the team based on the real potential of key players or of the difference between a "true" shooting guard or a combo guard.

To most NBA fans who pay the bills, whether sitting in seats or viewing on television, 45-50 wins on a young team means that logically the sky is the limit.

Reality paints a different story. Reality shows you that there is a pecking order. True centers (and in some eras it can take less to be a true center) and point guards win in the NBA.

If they're not winning, you can bet that a combination of very good true center plus position X is winning, and if that's not winning you're now in the land of Michael Jordan or a glaring exception.

In terms of where the very good players are placed on a championship team, or where their realistic position is, or where they lack limitations (Tim Duncan), here are the results since Russell retired:

Titles since 1969

Hall of fame C and PG on the same team - 11
Hall of fame C only - 7
Hall of fame C and Hall of fame SF/SG - 7
Michael Jordan - 6
Hall of fame C and PG with 5+ all star appearances - 2
C with at least four all star appearances plus PG with at least five all star appearances - 3
Outliers - 3

There is pretty convincing evidence that while some teams have a great SF and some teams have a great SG, almost all of the teams demonstrate an organizational capacity for understanding the center position to at least a very good extent.

Even if you're only talking about Robert Parish, you're well advised to at least do that well there, and then move on to building the rest of your team. A great center like David Robinson guarantees you nothing, but at the same time, I can provide you with plenty of negative guarantees if your center is Tyrone Hill.

Simple conclusion: You must "deal with" the center position effectively if you're going to have a chance to win a championship. If you don't, it will deal with you at some point.

3. Who has won without a center since Russell was drafted?

In the 52 years since Russell was drafted, only three teams have won without a center or forward/center with at least four all-star appearances or Michael Jordan. Those three teams are:

'75 Warriors
'03 Pistons
'08 Celtics

And that's only if you count Rasheed Wallace, who just went to his forth all star game, as strictly a forward.

This is important, because in an attempt to acknowledge that center is as important to basketball as the offensive line is in football, you will encounter naysayers who will say things like "look at the Bulls with Jordan" or "look what the Celtics just did."

Let's look at the Bulls with Jordan. That team had the greatest player ever and another top 25 player who is probably a top 10 defender all-time by anyone's estimation.

So, counting Jordan, you have two top 10 defenders all-time and a guy who can score 30 PPG on 50 percent FG, which is about what Jordan's stats were when he last retired from the Chicago Bulls. Think about that.

So, when people say "look at Jordan's Bulls" the immediate response needs to be "when someone gets two non-centers like that on one team again, they should do whatever they want."

Centers rule in the NBA, but the idea that there will never be exceptions is insane. There's an exception to everything. But think about this. To the Jordan/four-time all star center rule, there has only been six percent of championship teams who met an exception in 52 years.

The key to any exception is to ask yourself a key question. As a GM, how likely is it that I can imitate what this exceptional team did. The answer is, not very likely.

Then you look at Detroit. Dumars made some very solid moves. Not taking Dwyane Wade aside, he put together a good team before Wallace arrived. But, without getting Rasheed Wallace essentially for free, that's all the Pistons were gonna be.

They were going to be a "good" team that probably could have made a couple conference finals. So the question becomes, if you build like Dumars did, can you count on getting a player like Rasheed for free? The answer is no.

That leaves only Rick Barry's Warriors, who won a title in perhaps the worst era in NBA history, as the lone example of a team that ignored the center position and still won a ring.

4. If you are largely what you draft, then what do you do if you're not drafting Olajuwon, Jordan or even Rose?

The answer is simple, you try to acquire true centers and true point guards. Maybe you get a guy with Hakeem's size who can stand tall but isn't gifted at scoring in the post.

That's better than Mark West or putting Amare Stoudemire at center, where his best skills will be lost as he wears down over the course of the season. Roy Hibbert, Brad Miller or Andrew Bogut is better than thinking you'll be nice in April with Joakim Noah or Andris Biedrins.

Look at the Indiana Pacers, for example. They've never gotten a great center, but they have acquired Rik Smits, Antonio Davis, Dale Davis, Brad Miller, Jeff Foster and now Roy Hibbert.

They've made a statement. Their statement is "hey, maybe we haven't lucked out and got Patrick Ewing, but we understand center is important, so we're going to try to get the best centers we can."

That will be a much better strategy over time than a team like the Warriors, who basically says "hey, we've never had a center, we obviously don't understand the position, so let's just not try. Hey guys, the game is changing, we'll just run the other centers ragged by putting a faster player out there."

The problem with this thinking is that by the second round of the playoffs, teams get back in transition and "running non-centers" wear down physically. You can't run for 90-96 games and think that all the sudden you're going to have the legs to battle bigger players in a halfcourt seven-game slugfest. See the 07 Warriors v. Jazz.

The reason I must highlight Indiana as an example of good management is that if Portland wins, the "new style" crowd will say "yeah, but they got lucky." Indiana has gotten anything but lucky.

But what they did do was to commit to a PG clearly capable of averaging 9.0+ APG in TJ Ford (he averaged 6.1 APG in 24.8 MPG this year) and a 285 lb. center who, while not having the skill of a Tim Duncan or Patrick Ewing, also won't be muscled by anyone, including Kendrick Perkins.

Why did they do this? Because Larry Bird realizes a fact that all NBA GMs need to realize. For every 20 competent players that you acquire at combo guard, power forward or small forward, there might be two or three true centers, PGs or SGs of the same caliber available. Sure, Boston won with Pierce, Allen and Garnett.

But did you notice they also had two role players at center and PG each with a glaringly positive attribute? Rondo is a true PG with insane athleticism and Perkins is a true center who is ridiculously physical.

The Celtics didn't role with a great 2-3-4 trio and then two "non answers" at center and point guard. Perkins and Rondo caused Gasol and Fisher to have fits in the Finals.

Larry Bird realized that you can go out and get Danny Granger or Mike Dunleavy fairly easily. If you're just an NBA fan who likes "good players" and you don't realize the significant difference between a good player who is 6'9" 235 and a good player who is 6'11" 260, you need to read up on supply and demand and the effects on price.

Dwyane Wade may be hard to get. But even if you have him, if you have no answer at center and/or PG (since he does have PG skills), you won't win. What if you have Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion and Udonis Haslem and now you add Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo to the mix?

Now you're ready to clinch series victories late in the playoffs.

Tony Parker: Where is the Love?

Beyond the Arc Basketball — Mon, 04 May 2009 19:56:48 -0400

Is it just me, or do the Spurs just fly under the radar every season?

I'm not only talking about the Spurs as a team, either. Their players always go unnoticed and unappreciated for the most part as well.

How many times have you had a conversation with someone about the top 10 players in the league and simply forgot to include Tim Duncan?

I know I have, and the problem is that we tend to forget about them—I'm pretty sure most any real fan will agree Duncan is still a Top10 player.

So it really is just a Curse of the Spurs: They've been so great and solid for such a long period of time now(over a decade) they we tend to simply undervalue them as a whole, and their players go unappreciated for the most part.

My subject for today is Tony Parker—a prime example of what I am talking about.

I'm trying to not base my entire discussions on stats these days, but I still have to at least use the core stats of players to satisfy my urges of being a stat-whore (a slut of stats, basically).

Devin Harris might be the most talked-about "young" player in the league. He has had a breakout season and is possibly going to win the Most Improved Player award.

I'm not trying to discredit him to any degree, because he is a really solid, All-Star-caliber point guard, but when you take a look at what that kid (or should I say "man") has done this season, I can't help but wonder why Tony Parker isn't talked about just as much.

I understand Harris deserves all his accolades as his increases are a bit larger from last season—though his actual production is identical to his production last season. He's just getting seven more minutes a game, which is 25 percent more playing time. Take a look for yourself—his per-minute production hasn't improved at all.

But I won't get into that. I am not arguing the Most Improved Player award here. (I'll save that for another article.)

The interesting thing with Parker is he is playing basically the same amount of minutes as the previous season, yet every single stat of his has jumped up a decent amount. Since Harris has become this "great future PG" I want to compare Tony Parker to him this season.

Per Game:

Harris:---22.6ppg---7.0apg---3.3rpg---1.7spg---44%FG
Parker:---21.9ppg---7.0apg---3.0rpg---1.0spg---50%FG

Per36:

Harris:---22.2ppg--6.9apg---3.2rpg---1.7spg
Parker:---23.1ppg---7.3apg---3.1rpg---1.0spg

PER:

Harris: 23.0
Parker: 22.9

So where's the love for my boy Tony Parker? His stats have increased in every single category for career-best averages in points, assists, steals, three-point percentage and field-goal percentage. This guy is averaging over 20 points a game and seven assists a game as the leader and point guard of the greatest franchise in basketball for the last decade.

Parker's numbers are nearly identical to Devin Harris' around the board. Then realize Parker plays fewer minutes than Harris, and then take a look at their field-goal percentages. Parker trumps Harris, and any PG for that matter, being able to make HALF of his shots for the entire season.

Why don't people talk about Tony as the new "PG of the future"? How does a quick little midget like Tony accomplish such a feat? Aside from Steve Nash, I don't think any of the other great guards we talk about these days come close to making half of their shots. Moving on....

Now, Let's not forget his wife is 20 times hotter than anyone else's—he gets a few more points for that in my book. More importantly, he's the point guard and new leader of the San Antonio Spurs who happen to be the second best team in the Western Conference. And of course, we can't forget he was the 2007 NBA Finals MVP.

Tony Parker has single-handedly carried the Spurs through their bouts with injury all year. He began the season with Ginobli out the first few games putting up insane numbers including a 55-point, 10-assist, and seven-rebound effort against the Timberwolves.

Recently, he's picked up his play even more with Ginobli having been out for the last month or so, putting up great numbers and keeping this team atop the standings. While Tim Duncan has obviously played a vital role in all this, even he's admitted that Tony Parker drives this team and is without a doubt their MVP this year.

While Parker is not going to be in the discussion for league MVP (at least not while Duncan is on his team) I do think TD is spot on about Parker being the engine and heart that drives this team on a nightly basis. So where's the love for Tony?

People also seem to forget Tony Parker is only 26 years old. That's not a typo; he's twenty-six years old. That's the main reason I wanted to compare him to Devin Harris.

People seem to think Parker's around 30 years of age because of Duncan and Ginobli's ages, as well as his long tenure in the league. I often forget Parker came to the Spurs from France at the age of 18, and I know many other fans do the same thing.

Everyone talks about Devin Harris as this new "PG of the future", yet Parker is never mentioned in those same talks. Every day they discuss how Chris Paul and Deron Williams are the future guards of this league (which is obviously true).

But this season, the other relatively young guards having break-out seasons are surfacing in these talks all too often—the "future stud PGs of the NBA," like Devin Harris (25), Mo Williams (26), Jose Calderon (27), and Jameer Nelson (27).

So why the hell is Tony Parker not in these talks, at the age of 26 with his prime years ahead of him?

It's the curse of being a San Antonio Spur. Tony Parker might have been the least talked about player of the All-Star weekend—and yes, that includes Nate Robinson and all the dunkers, as well as the guys in the Rookie-Sophomore Game.

This Spurs franchise, and its players, have somehow been able to continuously fly under the radar—despite winning four NBA titles in the past decade. Tim Duncan is possibly the best power forward to play the game (at least top five), yet people spend all their time discussing the other great players in the league.

I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that Tony Parker continues to fly under the radar as he improves and becomes a clear-cut stud. I guess when you've been in the league since 18 and already had six great seasons starting on the best franchise in the league, and winning three titles in that span, fans and everyone else seem to simply take you for granted.

I'm sure Tony doesn't mind either. He'll gladly let all the hype and fuss surround Devin Harris and the other young guards of the league right now. Once the playoffs roll around, Tony Parker shows why he really is not only one of the best PGs in the league, but one of the best players in the league—just like he always does.

So whenever I start taking Tony Parker for granted I just do a quick YouTube search and always come to a great video. After scanning a few videos, I think this is a perfect example that will really do justice to my discussion, and in itself says so much more than I can every write in word.

Remember, he's only 25 in this game last season, and not once do they say anything about his age—not once.