Bleacher Report - Articles by Josh Roth

Studs and Duds: Review of the MLB Trade Deadline

Josh Roth — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 21:07:15 -0400

It was a very active Major League Baseball trade deadline that included some pretty big names packing bags including Victor Martinez, Jake Peavy, Cliff Lee, and Matt Holliday, just to name a few. There was also some very interesting surprises. Here is who I thought came out as Studs or Winners and also who became Duds or Losers.

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Studs and Duds: Reviewing The MLB Trade Deadline

Josh Roth — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 03:30:21 -0400

Studs

Boston Red Sox:

Key Acquisitions- Victor Martinez and Casey Kotchman

Red Sox were able to get a great a versatile player in Victor Martinez. He is able to play both catcher and first base. His numbers have been fantastic this year, especially for a catcher and if it wasn’t for Joe Mauer, he would be the best catcher in the American League. This trade also gives them insurance for Mike Lowell. If he happens to get hurt again, they can play Victor at first base and move Kevin Youkilis at third. There is also a good chance that he will wind up being their everyday catcher next year, the catcher they spent a lot of time looking for the past couple of years.

As for Casey Kotchman, it gives them a good defensive first baseman and just an all around solid player off the bench. This is also a cheaper option for the Red Sox.

The Red Sox did give up some nice prospects, but they still hold on to their stud Clay Bucholtz and their farm system is still in pretty good shape. Overall, they did a great job during the trade deadline.

Philadelphia Phillies

Key Acquisition- Cliff Lee

The Philadelphia Phillies needed another good starter in their rotation to help them make another World Series run, and they got a very good one in Cliff Lee. The reigning Cy Young winner from the American League now comes over to the National League and should make the Phillies the favorites to repeat as champions in the National League again.

Phillies did part with a solid package in Marson, Donald, Knapp, and Carrasco, but it was well worth it for a former CY Young winner, even though I feel Knapp could be a steal within this trade. Cliff Lee will give the team the best ground ball percentage, which bodes well for playing in a ball park like Citizens Bank. Plus he has a good strike out to walk ratio, over three, and he has a very good home run per nine, right around .5. This was a great deal, especially considering the package they would have to give up to get Roy Halladay.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Key Acquistions- Tim Alderson, Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison, Lastings Milledge, Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, Gorkys Hernandez, Argenis Diaz, Hunter Strickland, Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, and
Aaron Pribanic.

Many people have been quick to bash and criticize the moves made by Neal Huntington. However, these are the same people who probably don’t value a good prospect when they see one. I absolutely love what the Pirates did this season. Yes they traded away a “key” guy in Nate McClouth, whose defense is overrated with UZR being negative, which means his range is below average for a centerfielder. His OPS is below .800 and he is only getting on base at about a .340 clip, which isn't awful, but could be better. So for the Pirates to snag some pretty solid prospects in Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez, I would say they got fair to good value for their supposed star.

Charlie Morton has had good command and is a ground ball pitcher and should be a nice four or five starter for the Pirates. Jeff Locke has a ton of potential and he could find his way into the Pirates rotation in the future. Locke has pretty good stuff, but has struggled a bit with his control this year. Finally, Gorkys Hernandez is another very good prospect, who was ranked in the top ten of the Braves farm system. This gives the Pirates nice speed and good depth in the minors in terms of outfielders, to go alongside Jose Tabata.

There was a trade with the Washington Nationals. Lastings Milledge has all the potential in the world to be an all around player and the Pirates are obviously taking a chance here, but a good chance. See they don’t necessarily need Nyjer Morgan and by taking the chance in Lastings, they could come out geniuses in this trade, especially with Lastings bat coming around in the minors.

Then you have the crazy trade with the Seattle Mariners. They were able to ship Jack Wilson and Ian Snell for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Brett Lorin, and others. Jeff Clement is likely to move to first base, which is a position that the Pirates could use, although Garrett Jones has been playing well there. However, Jones can play some outfield if need be. Clement may see some time at catcher, but it is unlikely due to his poor defense. Clement has good power though and could be a key asset for the Pirates in the years to come.

Ronny Cedeno isn’t great, but he has solid range and could wind up being a nice utility guy down the road, possible starter, but he would have to hit a lot better than he has been. The other prospect I like in this deal is Brett Lorin. Lorin has great size at 6′7″ with pretty good command. His fastball has been said to be a little below average in terms of velocity, but take a look at Chris Young, he could be a similar pitcher with more command, with slightly worse stuff.

Pirates still weren’t done yet. They made moves with Cubs and the Giants. They traded an average to slightly above average middle reliever in John Grabow and a struggling starter in Tom Gorzelanny. They received a pretty good package, acquiring a middle reliever to potential set up guy in Jose Ascanio, who should be better than Grabow in the near future. And they also received a nice starter in Kevin Hart, who should help their rotation out and could make for a nice three starter or back of the rotation guy. Hart still needs to work on command, but he has got a couple of plus pitches.

Finally, the deal that propelled the Pirates into the Studs category. The Pirates, in my opinion, completely robbed the San Francisco Giants. They traded a solid, but overrated second basemen, in Freddy Sanchez for a very good prospect in Tim Alderson. Tim Alderson could be a very good starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has got a great curveball and really good command.

Look out for the Pirates within the next couple of years; they could be a very young and dangerous team. Their pitching improved immensely and they now have a pretty solid farm system with better depth.

Cleveland Indians

Key Acquisitions- Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price.

Like the Pirates, some feel that the Indians did not fare well for the trade deadline. However, I feel they did a pretty good job. They received a ton of good quality prospects for two great players, but players that they probably couldn’t afford to keep.

The first trade they made was with the Philadelphia Phillies. This was the trade that set a lot of people off a bit. The feeling amongst fans and experts is that the Indians didn’t get enough in this deal, but it is all based on personal preferences. For example, there are a lot of scouts that believe that Jason Knapp will actually be better than the Phillies current top prospect Kyle Drabek. I have to agree with them and the Indians must have too. Knapp is still very young, but he posseses great stuff and strikes out a ton. He doesn’t give up a lot of homeruns, but he, like a lot of prospects, needs to cut down on his walks.

As for the rest of the prospects, Carlos Carrasco gives them a nice guy to put at the end of the rotation and a guy that was ranked as the Phillies second best pitcher, according to Baseball America. Then they receive a pretty good catching prospect in Lou Marson, who is likely the insurance plan for Carlos Santana. If Santana lives up to his potential, which I think he will, the Indians could move him for a key piece during the trade deadline next year, if they are in the playoff hunt. Finally they got a Jason Donald, who has a chance to fit in very well with their current middle infielders, Luis Valbuena and Asdrubal Cabrera. Donald has been struggling a bit, but he has been injured and when healthy he has a good eye at the plate and pretty solid power for a middle infielder.

Then they traded the heart and soul of the Indians, Victor Martinez. As hard has this must have been for Cleveland and the fans of the Indians, they made the right move. They received some very good pitching prospects, which pitching has obviously been the key issue for the Cleveland Indians. Justin Masterson should get time right away whether it is in the rotation or the bullpen. There has been some issues with Masterson’ arm slot and whether he could be a starter or not, but he has got great stuff and was a highly rated prospect in a very good farm system. The real prize in the deal is Nick Hagadone. Nick Hagadone ranked third in the Boston farm system, according to Baseball America. Hagadone is a big time lefty with great strike out per nine numbers. He is still very young and he is coming off Tommy John Surgey, but he could be a good top of the order type pitcher.

Overall, I think the Indians walked away with some very nice prospect and they can some more pitching depth, which they desperately needed.

Duds

San Francisco Giants

Key Acquisitions- Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez

The Ryan Garko deal wasn’t bad. They didn’t give up a big time prospect and they got a decent first basemen, well at least against lefties. Either way the Giants needed to have someone man first, their options prior to Garko were pretty bad. So I like the trade for the Giants.

However, the trade for Freddy Sanchez made them losers. The Giants have great pitching prospects in the minors and they gave one up for an average, maybe slightly above average, second basemen. The only way Sanchez is productive offensively is if he hits over.300, because he doesn’t walk much. He is a good defender and a solid contact hitter, but there is no way he is worth Tim Alderson. Tim Alderson is a guy that could be a top of the rotation type pitcher; he has got great size and good stuff. The Giants didn’t need him for the future, but they should have gotten more for a highly regarded pitching prospect, especially when they need more power in the lineup.

Chicago Cubs

Key Acquisitions- John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny

Cubs gave up quite a bit for a middle reliever and, at this point, a below average starter. Kevin Hart had been pitching well and was ranked as their sixth best prospect, according to Baseball America, coming into the season. Then they trade a nice and up and coming bullpen arm in Jose Ascaino for John Grabow. May I remind you that Grabow actually has better splits vs. righties than he does lefties. He is a good middle relief guy, but really doesn’t pass for a dominate set up, which in my opinion, is what this package suggests.

Another puzzling thing for the Chicago Cubs is why do you feel the desire to make such a move? You have just signed B.J. Ryan, whose raw numbers haven’t look good, but if you pitch him strictly to left handers, he would make for a pretty lefty specialist. Not only that, but you have Sean Marshall, who has done a great job in the bullpen.

The only way that the Chicago Cubs get themselves out of the Duds list, is if Tom Gorzelanny can do what he has done in the minors, in the major leagues. If he doesn’t than this trade looks awful for the Chicago Cubs.

Could Go Either Way

St. Louis Cardinals

Key Acquisitions: Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo

The Cardinals made some solid moves to help make run towards a playoff berth and the National League Central crown. Matt Holliday is a very good hitter and should do better in St. Louis, which is a more hitter friendly place than Oakland. DeRosa gives them versatility and should be a very good second base/third basemen for the Cardinals.

However, they paid a pretty steep price by giving up some pretty good prospects in Chris Perez, Brett Wallace, Jess Todd, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson. There will be a couple of keys to whether the Cardinals become Studs or Duds for this deadline.

First they would have to at least make the playoffs to make this trade respectable and probably have to advance past the first round.

The second key would be to sign both Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa long term, especially Matt Holliday. If one of these two things happens then I would consider this to be a fairly decent trade and if both happen then I consider them to be Studs. However, if they miss the playoffs and fail to resign Matt Holliday, then they become big time Duds and to make things worse, it could diminish their chances of resigning Albert Pujols.

Chicago White Sox

Key Acquisitions: Jake Peavy and Tony Pena

The White Sox made a big splash right before the deadline and picked up a very good pitcher from the San Diego Padres in Jake Peavy. Jake Peavy gives them another starter that they really needed in order to separate themselves from the AL Central. However, Peavy is hurt and may not be available for the rest of the year.

This may wind up hurting the White Sox as they make a run towards the AL Central crown. They traded away their fifth starter, Clayton Richards, who was beginning to turn it on. They also trade their top pitching prospect Aaron Poreda, so they will lack pitching depth. Now, if they can stay amongst the top of the Central and can somehow get Peavy back before the end of the season, the White Sox could be a very dangerous team and a legitimate World Series contender. This would obviously be one key in making this team a stud.

However, if they can’t get Peavy back, there is still next year. The White Sox will probably be the favorites in the AL Central next year. As long as they can make the playoffs within the next two or three years and make a good run in the playoffs, this will look like a good deal. The good thing is they have Peavy through 2013 and as long as he stays healthy, I see the White Sox coming out more like Studs, but they did make an awful trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. They traded for middle reliever Tony Pena and gave up a very good first base prospect in Brandon Allen. Still I lean towards the Stud list with the South-Siders.

NBA Studs and Duds: Week One of Free Agency

Josh Roth — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 17:05:30 -0400

It has been a fairly entertaining offseason thus far, with some quality players moving to new locations. The NBA free agent signing period technically didn’t start until Wednesday, July 8, at midnight, but the negotiating period started on July 1, so here is a look at studs and duds as of July 1.

Studs

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have had an excellent offseason thus far. Although they only signed one player during the past week, Antonio McDyess, it was a big key to an already impressive offseason.

Prior to signing McDyess, they were able to trade for Richard Jefferson, who gives them another go-to scorer, and with the injury troubles of Parker and Ginobli, it gives them some security on the offensive end. His defense is alright, but it will improve under Greg Popovich.

The Spurs also had a very successful draft, even without a first-round pick. They drafted DeJuan Blair, Jack McClinton, and Nando De Colo. Blair and McClinton could make an immediate impact with the team next year. With all of these moves, expect the Spurs to be back competing for the top spot in the West and becoming a serious title contender.

Los Angeles Lakers

So far, the Lakers have only made one move during the offseason, but it was a very good one. They were able to sign Ron Artest, who will help make the team better defensively.

Ron Artest also has a solid jumper and attacks the basket well and should be a better option than Trevor Ariza.

Furthermore, Ron Artest stayed out of trouble last year, and he seems committed to winning.

However, I still think the Lakers need to re-sign Lamar Odom to consider this a successful offseason, but I think there is a good chance that he re-signs. So, for now, the Lakers are “studs” this offseason and should be title contenders again.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas is a team that I have on the “stud” list, but it is still not complete. They have re-signed Jason Kidd, which I am not overly thrilled with, but he is a solid point guard and won’t hurt the team.

They then did a sign-and-trade deal with the Raptors for Shawn Marion. I absolutely love this deal. Marion gives them a great defender that they desperately needed. Marion will be able to help them defend the perimeter a little better, plus he can give you a little offense and should be a good running mate with Jason Kidd.

And finally they have a deal on the table for Marcin Gortat. They are waiting for the Magic to match, which seems unlikely. If they bring in Gortat, this would complete a terrific offseason for the Dallas Mavericks.

I thought he played pretty well when given the opportunity in Orlando, and he would fit well alongside Dirk Nowitzki because he is a solid offensive rebounder and post defender. Dallas has a chance to be contenders again with these moves.

Toronto Raptors

I am hesitant to put the Raptors on the “stud” list, but I think the team has improved. I like the trade they made, early in the offseason, for Reggie Evans. Reggie Evans gives them a great rebounder, good defender, and a good complement to Bosh and Bargnani.

They also made a great pick in the first round in Demar DeRozan, who I think has a chance to be a stud, much like a Vince Carter or Tracy McGrady.

And the big move was signing Hedo Turkoglu, another good offensive threat to go alongside Bosh. Turkoglu can create for himself and set teammates up well. Overall, I think the Raptors are better, and they should have a good chance to get back to the playoffs.

Duds

Detroit Pistons

Plenty of people may consider what the Pistons' offseason moves a success; however, I am going to have to disagree. In my opinion, the moves they made didn’t help them too much and could have made them worse.

First, they signed Ben Gordon to a big five-year deal. Ben Gordon can flat-out shoot, there is no question about it. He can also be clutch when the game is on the line. However, his defense is below average at best.

Despite being a better shooter and younger, I don't think Gordon is a huge improvement over Iverson. Gordon also doesn’t seem to fit too well in their back court. Rodney Stuckey is more of a scoring point guard, and they already have Rip Hamilton, who isn’t too fond of the bench.

They also signed Charlie Villanueva, who also doesn’t play too much defense. He gives them a decent scoring threat down low, but his game is more outside than inside. Overall, the Pistons have lost the identity that made them successful—great defense.

The Pistons may struggle next year, and if they can’t find a taker for Rip Hamilton, they could have some chemistry issues and may miss out on the playoffs.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz’s front office hasn’t necessarily done a bad job this offseason, but Carlos Boozer may be holding up their future plans. Boozer is not necessarily a bad player, but it seems that the chances of him staying with the team past 2010 are slim. Therefore, it could hurt them down the road.

The Jazz want to bring back Paul Millsap, but it may be tough to convince him to come back with Boozer still on the team. Jazz could rid themselves of the “Dud” label if they are able to trade Boozer and get good value or shed some salary to re-sign Paul Millsap.

There are some teams that could make a move for Boozer like the Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, New Jersey Nets, or Charlotte Bobcats. Something tells me that the Jazz could be moving out of this list, stay tuned.

Interesting But Potentially Horrific

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis has had an interesting offseason thus far. They made a big trade when they received Zach Randolph from the Clippers. And now there are rampant rumors that the Grizzlies may sign Allen Iverson. I am not quite sure how I feel about the offseason for the Grizzles, but it has been very interesting to say the least.

I like their draft picks: Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll, and Sam Young. Thabeet should give them a good defensive and unselfish center who should complement Zach Randolph.

Speaking of Randolph, if he can keep his attitude in check and if he commits a little bit to the defensive end, this could be an excellent pick up for Memphis because he already has good offensive skills.

However, I am not sure that Iverson makes Memphis a better team. Iverson would likely have to play the point with Mayo and Gay filling the shooting guard and small forward positions, respectively.

I suppose Iverson could be a sixth man, but I don’t think that would go over well.

Personally, the Grizzlies would be better suited finding another point guard, but this could be a much improved team. At the very least, they should be fun to watch.

Grading the NBA Draft: Studs and Duds

Josh Roth — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 04:16:00 -0400

Studs

San Antonio Spurs

- How the Spurs were able to grab DeJuan Blair at that spot, I will never know, but it gives them a good option to go alongside of Tim Duncan. Also, if Blair stays healthy, which he didn’t have a problem with in college, he could be very similar to Brandon Bass or Paul Millsap. Either way, I think it was a terrific pick.

They also pick up Jack McClinton, who can flat out shoot. He is small but would be a nice option off the bench and might be able to play a little point if the Spurs need him, too. Oh, and he is also a pretty good defender.

Finally, they picked up Nando De Colo, a combo guard from France. He may not play for the Spurs this year or the next, but he has been on the rise over in France and could be a nice combo guard for the Spurs.

Oh, I almost forgot to mention that they made a trade for Richard Jefferson, too. Great draft week for the Spurs.

Oklahoma City Thunder

- I really liked the pickup of James Harden out of Arizona St. Harden is what everybody loves to call “old school”, as he is a great leader and team player. In fact, he helped lead a team in Arizona St. from okay to good. He has a chance to be a poor man’s Paul Pierce and should be a good fit in Oklahoma City, who needed a SG/SF.

They also picked up B.J. Mullens and Robert Vaden. Vaden is solid and could be a nice role player or shooter off the bench. As for Mullens, he has a chance to be a solid center in this league. He has to be committed and bulk up, but this could be a steal for the Oklahoma City Thunder by picking a guy who could have very well gone in the lottery.

Memphis Grizzlies

- Hasheem Thabeet is a pretty good constellation prize for not getting Blake Griffin. He could be a great center in this league. He may not be great offensively (could still give you double digits in points), but he will give you a great force down low who could shut down posts in this league for the years to come. He will give teams second opportunities offensively and will block a ton of shots.

They also drafted DeMarre Carroll and Sam Young, two great hustle players. Sam Young gives the team a solid shooter with a great pump fake and good athleticism. As for Carroll, he is a good energy player who can play good defense and his shot has been improving every year.

Close But No Cigar

Chicago Bulls

- Chicago made a great selection in James Johnson, who is quick for his size, can great shots, great athleticism, and a solid defender. He is also versatile and reminds me a lot of Lamar Odom.

However, the thing that kept them from being winners was the pick of Taj Gibson. I felt if they would have went Ellington or Blair, this would have been a great night for Chicago. Could Tyrus Thomas be traded soon?

Minnesota Timberwolves

- I like most of their picks, especially the pick of Rubio, which I feel is a steal. However, they proceeded to draft Flynn. Both are very good players, but both play the point, so there could be a move or Rubio planning on staying overseas. If Rubio stays overseas, the Flynn pick could be a very good one. If he gets traded, I want to wait to see what they get for him before I make a final decision.

I also love the pick of Wayne Ellington, and Henk Norel was a solid one as well. Nick Calathes could be a good trade chip for the Timberwolves as well. I will give them a close, but no cigar, but this could turn out to be a great draft for them.

New York Knicks

- They had a great value pick in Jordan Hill, who could be a great fit in D’Antoni’s system. Hill could turn out to be a poor man’s Chris Bosh, as he has a solid post game and good size. He needs to add some size to his frame, but I love the pick.

I am not sold on Toney Douglas, but he is a good shooter and could be a nice option off the bench. This was a really solid draft for the Knicks, who came close to fitting into the winners category.

Duds

Phoenix Suns

- I am not sold on Earl Clark, who I thought was a bit overrated. He has some good potential and nice athleticism, but his defense and decision making are average at best at this point. I actually think they would have been better suited picking James Johnson, but this still could be a good pick down the line.

That pick wasn’t the most disappointing. In my opinion, it was Taylor Griffin. It is a great story that he got picked, but realistically he probably shouldn’t have gone this high or at all, especially with Patrick Mills and Jack McClinton still available. I hope the best for Taylor and hope he proves me wrong, but I believe the Suns should have gone different routes.

Milwaukee Bucks

- I do not like the pick of Brandon Jennings, who could be a major head case for Scott Skiles. He is a very good athlete and ball handler, but lacks basketball IQ and shooting, which would not equate to a good point guard. They would have been better off going with Jrue Holiday or Ty Lawson.

Jodie Meeks may not be a bad pickup, because he is a good scorer. However, he will need to improve defensively and his size hurts him a bit, but this isn’t as bad of a pickup.

They also traded Richard Jefferson, who may have been able to help this team sneak into the playoffs if Redd was healthy.

Borderline Losers

Utah Jazz

- The only pick I question is the pick of Eric Maynor. I thought they should have gone with either a more traditional shooting guard, Wayne Ellington, or a center in B.J. Mullens. Eric Maynor will be a solid role player and isn’t the worst pick up in the world, but I thought there were better options for the Jazz.

New Orleans Hornets

- I thought they would have been better served going after Ellington or adding some more size in the post. Collison just seems to be bound to the bench and could see very little minutes behind Chris Paul. They could put the two out on the court together, but I still think Ellington would have been a better option, or maybe Omri Casspi.

Sacramento Kings

- The only reason I am putting them here is because they passed up on Rubio, Flynn, and Holiday, who I feel are more natural point guards. Tyreke Evans is solid, has good ball-handling skills, and ability to get to the lane.

However, I think he might be a stuck as a combo guard, who may just wind up stuck at the shooting-guard position, which they already have in Kevin Martin. Not a horrible pick, but I would have liked them to go for a more natural point.

NBA First Round Mock Draft

Josh Roth — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 19:19:05 -0400

Draft night should be crazy and unpredictable this year. Expect to see a lot of trade talks and movement involving current NBA stars and draft picks. The class has been classified as weak, but I think there is still some great talent within. However, it seems that this draft is all based on whether players improve some skills and max out their potential. This may not be the best of classes, but it should be an exciting night nonetheless. Here is the way I see it playing out.

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Time to Chill Out Cubs Nation

Josh Roth — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 03:52:54 -0400

The boo birds are alive and well in the place they call the friendly confines. Message boards are filled with “Fire Lou” or “The season is over” posts.

The Chicago Cubs, as most of the sports world has surely noticed, have gone in a bit of a slump. There is not one Chicago Cubs starting position player that is hitting above .300. In fact they rank in the bottom half of most offensive categories.

Milton Bradley is surely not living up to his contract or what the city of Chicago had hoped for. Then you have him making a couple blunders during Friday’s game against the Minnesota Twins, but I will get back to that later.

Then you have Alfonso Soriano, who signed a massive contract with the expectation that he would be the face of this franchise, that he would be the superstar that this team needed to advance far into postseason play.

The offseason moves have been another frustration of many Cubs fans with Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood departing.

So is it time to pack it in?

Is it time to panic?

Is it time to fire all managers?

The simple answer to these questions is a big NO. Sure the season hasn’t been what many Cubs fans have expected and the team’s woes at the plate can drive any fan bonkers.

However, the Cubs are only two weeks into June and there is still over 100 games left in the season. That is nearly two thirds of the season. And surely with all the panic and demanding of major changes, the Cubs must be far out of the playoff picture, right? Oh wait, the Chicago Cubs, as of June 13, 2009 are three and a half games out of first in the National League Central.

Really? That can’t be right!

Yes Chicago Cubs fans, that is right the Cubs are only three and a half games out, as awful as things have been the Cubs are still very much in the thick of things. There are some good signs for this team as well, even though the team has looked awful.

The biggest key is that the pitching staff is doing very well. It would be nice to put together some more wins for this staff, but one of the biggest keys to making the playoffs is having a decent rotation and certainly the Cubs have that.

There are also some good pieces to the bullpen. Carlos Marmol, when he finds the strike zone, is lights out. Angel Guzman has been really good as of late and has seen his ERA dip below 3.00, at 2.57 with a 1.04 WHIP.

Jose Ascaino has also been a pleasant surprise out of the pen posting 2.70 ERA. Kevin Gregg hasn’t been horrible either, blowing two saves in 12 opportunities. If he can improve on those numbers a bit, it could make for a solid bullpen down the stretch.

As for the offense the biggest key is the loss of Aramis Ramirez. Anytime you lose your best and biggest threat offensively, it tends to affect the rest of the lineup. Look at what happened in New York with Alex Rodriguez. The Yankees were struggling at the beginning of the season, including their big acquisition Mark Texeria.

However, when he returned they seemed to take to another level. Their offense was very dangerous, Mark Texeria was tearing the cover off the baseball, and the Yankees started to win. I think you can expect much of the same for the Chicago Cubs when Aramis Ramirez comes back.

All these hitters could use Aramis, but maybe no one more than Milton Bradley. He has been struggling a bit to start his season, but I think there are some signs that things will be fine with him. He has raised his average since the start of the season, albeit from .100 to .200. He is still seeing quite a bit of pitches, walking at a good rate, and has seemed to be making better contact.

Friday was a big low. Not for Milton Bradley, but for the fans of the Chicago Cubs, especially those at the game. We are all human, people are bound to make mistakes and it was indeed a rough day for Milton.

However, Milton Bradley was able to drive in two runs and at most cost the Cubs one run in the end. So why are we booing him at every plate appearance? Sure it is fine to boo him for missing those plays, that is fine, but to boo him in his next plate appearance and then again all day Saturday.

I have one word in mind for those actions. Pathetic!

I know it has been frustrating. I know it has been hard to bare, but please let’s just take a moment to chill out. To realize that there is still a long way to go and that we are three and half games out with or best player missing.

In fact all baseball fans, with the exception of the Nationals fans, should just relax. If towards the middle or end of July the Cubs are dropping further and further out of first, then maybe it is time to panic, but for now let’s be hopeful and remember things.

1. Take a deep breathe

2. Take a couple of chill pills

3. And remember that patience is a virtue!

MLB News and Tidbits: Week of June 1

Josh Roth — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 04:03:43 -0400

A Rocky Situation: Colorado Call Up Gonzalez

The Colorado Rockies have called up Carlos Gonzalez, the big outfield prospect they received from the Oakland A’s this past offseason in the Matt Holliday trade.

Since the Rockies already have Ryan Spilborghs, Seth Smith, and Brad Hawpe in the outfield, it wouldn’t make much since to me to bring up Gonzalez if there wasn’t a move to make.

Expect Hawpe or Todd Helton to get dealt in the very near future. Hawpe would be the easiest to trade and could bring back more value, considering Helton’s massive contract.

The Rockies should act soon though, while Hawpe's average, OPS, and RBI numbers are still among the top 10 in the National League.

Say it Ain't So, Big Z: Zambrano Talks Retirement

Carlos Zambrano retiring in five years? If he does, it would make him 33 years young.

However, we are obviously a long way from that point, so we will see what happens. It has been a very frustrating past week for Mr. Zambrano, who just got off a suspension for a tirade and missed a team flight to Atlanta.

Zambrano has been taking a lot of heat from the media and fans alike.

In my humble opinion, the tirades can be a good thing. They fire up teams when they are struggling, but most importantly some guys thrive on playing with emotion.

It seems in recent years, Zambrano has tried to control his emotions, but honestly I think it would be wise to let him pitch with that fire again.

Brave Icon Gone?: Glavine Released by Braves

Tom Glavine was released last week by the Atlanta Braves. The Braves executives claimed he just didn’t have what it took to get batters out, pointing to the decreasing velocity as a cause for concern.

A lot of folks in the baseball community feel like this was more of a financial move since Glavine would have received a $1 million bonus for making it back to the big leagues.

I don’t necessarily disagree with the move the Braves made. Age, injuries, and decreasing velocity out of one of your starters would concern any organization.

However, the organization could have went about it a different way.

For example, they could have warned him a while back that his staying with the club was unlikely, told him it was a financial move and that the focus was on younger pitchers, or simply given him a chance to pitch out of the bullpen.

On the other hand, Glavine should see this more as an opportunity or a favor from the Braves. He know can sign with whatever franchise he so desires, and he may have a better opportunity to pitch again in another organization.

Better yet, maybe he can latch on to a World Series contender.

In the end, it was probably the right move for the Braves and the right move for Glavine.

Grading the Nate McLouth Deal

Josh Roth — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 17:39:05 -0400

The Braves made a big move to acquire Nate McLouth the other day, giving up three top prospects in Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeffrey Locke to the Pirates. This is a great move for both teams.

For the Pirates it gives them a little bit more pitching depth for the future and a pretty solid outfield prospect in Gorkys Hernandez.

Charlie Morton is having a fantastic season in Triple-A so far, with a 2.51 ERA with the Braves Triple-A system and a good strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has a chance to make an impact soon. He could make for a good four starter, quite possibly a third if he can bring that same success to the majors.

Hernandez was a top five prospect in the Braves system. He has very good speed and can hit well. He lacks power, but he would give the Pirates good range in the outfield and a top-of-the-order hitter.

Then there is Jeffrey Locke, who could wind up being the best prospect of them all. Although he is ranked below Gorkys, and struggling a bit in the minors, he has got the tools to be very good.

He has been given some high ratings for his control and strikeout ratios, which could make him a top of the order pitcher. However, we probably won’t see him for at least another two years, but keep an eye on Locke.

It also allows them to bring up one of their top prospects, Andrew McCutchen, who was tearing it up in Triple-A.

This could also free up some more money for a very good pitching prospect in Aaron Crow, but it sounds like they will go a cheaper route and take catcher Tony Sanchez. If they do take Sanchez, it may be a big mistake and send the wrong message to the Pittsburgh fans.

They need a lot of things, but they need to get better pitching prospects, and Crow could give them that.

As for the Braves, they obviously get a very talented center fielder in McLouth, who makes few errors and is not too shabby with the bat either. They need more pop in the lineup and he can probably hit 20 home runs and have a nice OPS. Plus, he can fit in a lot of different spots in the lineup, he can lead off, bat second, third, fifth, and so on.

Not to mention he's only 27 years old, so he has got a lot of baseball ahead of him and he also hasn’t quite hit his prime yet.

Now, the Braves should not settle. They are still in need of a right-handed bat to fit in that lineup and it may be time to cut ties with Jeff Franceour as well.

Some options could still include Mark DeRosa, Matt Holliday, Jermaine Dye, and possibly Carlos Lee, if they could take on that payroll. My bet would be Mark DeRosa or Jermaine Dye since they would likely come at a cheaper price.

Grades:

Atlanta Braves: A-

Pittsburgh Pirates: B+

Let the Peavy Sweepstakes Begin: Teams Likely to Land Jake Peavy

Josh Roth — Mon, 25 May 2009 02:43:10 -0400

Jake Peavy was reportedly involved in a deal that would have sent him to the Chicago White Sox for prospects Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda, possibly others. However, Jake Peavy quickly shot down that trade, by exercising his full no trade clause. He has expressed a desire to pitch in Chicago, but that desire was to pitch on the North side not the South. With Peavy rejecting the deal it got me thinking of other possible locations he could be traded to. I have come up with the top 5 likely NL destinations, plus a bonus AL team.

Begin Slideshow

Jake Peavy: Let the Trade Sweepstakes Begin

Josh Roth — Mon, 25 May 2009 02:14:10 -0400

Jake Peavy was reportedly involved in a deal that would have sent him to the Chicago White Sox for prospects Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda, among others.

However, Peavy quickly shot down that trade, exercising his full "no trade" clause. He has expressed a desire to pitch in Chicago, but that desire was to pitch on the North side, not the South.

With Peavy rejecting the deal, it got me thinking of other possible locations he could be traded to. I have come up with the top five likely NL destinations, plus a bonus AL team.

1. Atlanta Braves

Positives:

The Braves have a highly rated farm system (sixth overall, according to Baseball America) headed by Tommy Hanson (Pitcher). However, the Braves have said Hanson is likely off limits as far as trade talks are concerned.

But there are still other good prospects the Braves could deal.Some of those prospects include: Jason Heyward (OF, may also be off limits), Gorkys Hernandez (OF), and multiple pitching prospects.

Another positive is that Peavy would probably accept a trade to Atlanta considering the Braves would likely be competitive, it is a pitchers ball park, and he would stay in the National League.

Negatives:

Negotiations between the Padres and Braves took a turn for the worst this offseason, with the Braves upset with the way San Diego GM Kevin Towers handled things. So the Braves would have to likely be willing to look past that.

Another big issue could be money and whether the Braves would be willing to invest in Peavy.

And finally there may be other key issues, like another middle-of-the-order power hitter. They invested money in Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe, so there may not be that urgency at starting pitching that there was over the winter.

2. Milwaukee Brewers

Positives:

The Brewers are among the top 10 in terms of their farm system. They can center a deal around prospects such as Matt Gamel (3B, and probably unlikely to get dealt), Alcides Escobar (SS), and Jeremy Jeffress (Pitcher).

The Brewers are also a National League team and as long as they remain among the top two or three in the NL Central, they should have a good chance of luring Peavy in.

Finally, the organization claims its focus is still on winning and if that is the case, then the Brewers may be willing to spend the money necessary to get Peavy.

Negatives:

Payroll may be an issue with the Brewers considering they were unable to re-sign C.C. Sabathia, although I suppose no one could match the contract the Yankees were willing to give him.

The Brewers could also be better suited to go after more than one starting pitcher with their weak rotation, so they may look for two quality starters rather than one really good starter.

Another key factor is the season-ending injury to Rickie Weeks. If they are looking for a replacement for Weeks, it could decrease the chances of pulling of a deal for Peavy.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

Positives:

The Phillies desparately need another starting pitcher and could easily be the front runners. They have good solid prospects including Carlos Carrasco (pitcher), Domnic Brown (OF), and Lou Marson (catcher) just to name a few.

This is a top-15 farm system and should have enough good young prospects to make a deal go through. Philadelphia also probably has enough financial stability to acquire a contract like Peavy's.

Negatives:

Peavy may not want to go to Philadelphia, because of the homer-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park. If the Braves or Brewers decide they really want Peavy, Philadelphia may have a hard time outbidding them.

Philadelphia may also need more than one starting pitcher, so they could be going after two starters at better/cheaper prices.

4. Chicago Cubs

Positives:

Peavy has reportedly expressed interest in becoming a Chicago Cub. They are a National League team, which is a big plus, and if they can get the ownership situation cleared up by the deadline, they may be able to make a deal.

Also if the Padres are interested in Major League ready pitchers, then guys like Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija may be what the Padres are looking for.

Negatives:

The farm system is pretty weak at the moment and it would not be a wise idea for the Cubs to give up their top prospect, Josh Vitters (3B), who would more than likely have to be involved.

The Cubs also don’t seem to have the great pitching prospects, although it is possible that the Padres may have some interest in Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, and Randy Wells.

The ownership situation, which still isn’t finalized, may also stand in the way of a big deal for Peavy. But most of all, the Cubs don’t seem to be in dire need to get starting pitching with a pretty good rotation right now.

5. St. Louis Cardinals

Positives:

The Cardinals are in the National League and there seem to be indications that Peavy would pitch in St. Louis.

The health concerns of Chris Carpenter could force the Cardinals to pull the trigger and make the deal. They have the prospects to get such a deal done, ranking in the top 10 in prospects.

Negatives:

The rotation has been looking better and they are getting Carpenter back, so the need for a starting pitcher may not be there. The Cardinals may have greater needs, like on offense, or possibly in the bullpen.

Also, if the Padres ask for Colby Rasmus or Brett Wallace, the Cardinals may sour on the deal. Payroll or an unwillingness to invest in Peavy may be there as well.

Wild Card: Boston Red Sox

Positives:

Clay Bucholz is a big key that most teams seem very interested in. If the Red Sox decide they could use a guy like Peavy, they may use Bucholz and some other prospects to build a package.

They also have the money to be capable to make such a move and if they have problems with guys like Brad Penny, Tim Wakefield, and Jon Lester, they may feel inclined to do so.

Finally, they are a team that will more than likely be in the thick of things come the end of the regular season.

Negatives:

First off, they are an American League team and Peavy has said he would like to stay in the National League. However, Boston is likely to be a playoff contender and that may be enticing for Peavy.

Boston is also pretty deep in starting pitching. John Smoltz on his way back and the Red Sox could decide that Buckholz is a better and cheaper answer than Peavy.

What's All the Hype About? NBA Conference Finals Outlook

Josh Roth — Tue, 19 May 2009 01:09:01 -0400

There is a lot of hype currently for a Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers final. However, there are some things that make me a little skeptical of this scenario actually playing out.

Lets first look at the teams that each had to play in order to get to the conference finals. The Cleveland Cavaliers had the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks. Now the Detroit Pistons were absolutely awful this year after trading away Chauncey Billups.

Detroit seemed to lose their identity as a defensive juggernaut and offensively they seemed to get worse as well. In fact Detroit gave up more points than they scored this year.

Atlanta Hawks were a legitimate challenge for the Cavs. Atlanta had good defenders lead by Josh Smith and an underrated superstar in Joe Johnson. However, Atlanta came out flat, was banged up, and didn't have a true low post threat offensively. Not to mention that Atlanta isn’t the greatest threat offensively.

Denver has faced the likes of the New Orleans Hornets and the Dallas Mavericks. New Orleans has had a down year and has had a lot of key injuries plague their team. Tyson Chandler being the biggest, seeing as he is the defensive post threat that the Hornets rely on.

James Posey was banged up a bit and Peja wasn’t the same this year, with his numbers (FG%, 3PT%, PPG, FT%, etc.) decreasing. So Denver wasn’t taking on the good Hornets team of a year ago, but I will tip my hat, because they still had to get by Chris Paul.

The next task was to defeat the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas advanced because San Antonio was minus Manu Ginobili and like the Hornets banged up as well. Dallas isn’t an overly impressive team, sure they have Dirk Nowitzki, but who else do they have besides that. Jason Terry? All he can do is score and he is an inconsistent one at that.

Jason Kidd? An over the hill point guard, who looked absolutely awful in the games versus Denver. Josh Howard? Josh is a good player, but I think we all expected him to take is game to the next level, but he may have taken a tiny step back. The bench is also thin, so I am not overly impressed with the teams the Nuggets have played either.

So Cleveland gets to face an Orlando Magic team that has defeated them two times this year out of three meetings. Orlando will be a very difficult task for the Cavs, not only because they can shoot the three, but they have a dominant post player in Dwight Howard, who will likely cause fits for Cleveland.

Orlando can also guard the perimeter and it will be tough for LeBron to get those easy drives with Dwight in the post. Expect this to be a back and forth series with what I think is a likely chance to go to a game seven.

As for Denver, they will have to take on the defending Western Conference champs. They will have a tough assignment in Kobe Bryant compared to Jason Terry. The key may be Lamar Odom, who could present a tough match up for Carmelo Anthony or Kenyon Martin.

However, if Lamar struggles and they can continue to play tough defense and play up-tempo, creating a lot of fast breaks, Denver may be in a good position. Again expect a very good series, but don’t be surprised if Los Angeles takes it before it reaches a game six.

Predictions:

Eastern Conference: Orlando Magic over Cleveland Cavs in seven.

Western Conference: Los Angeles Lakers over Denver Nuggets in six.

Hot Corner of Fame: Where Does Atlanta Braves 3B Chipper Jones Stand?

Josh Roth — Sun, 03 May 2009 00:17:35 -0400

Chipper Jones has been the cornerstone of the Braves for over 15 years. He has won an MVP award, Silver Slugger Award, a batting title, and a World Series. His career numbers are absolutely fantastic:

Name	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	Runs	RBI
C. Jones	.310	.408	.547	.955	410	1390	1382

So where does Chipper stand amongst the rest of the Hall of Fame third baseman?

His hitting numbers are in the top five amongst all of the third base Hall of Famers, including tops in slugging percentage and OPS. His run and RBI totals will rise as well and could possibly lead him to being the best in both of those respective categories as well.

After looking over all the statistics, there were three other candidates that could put up a case for being better than Chipper Jones.

They are Wade Boggs, Eddie Mathews, and Mike Schmidt.

Eddie Mathews had a great career, but the only thing in the end that will separate him from Chipper is the homerun totals, so I will place Chipper ahead of Eddie Mathews.

Next in line is Wade Boggs, who seems to go under the radar, but his stats are actually very good. He has the best average and OBP of any Hall of Fame third basemen, plus he won a couple of gold gloves. Boggs also is part of the 3,000 hits club, which it would likely take five more good seasons for Chipper to reach.

However, the thing that separates him and Chipper Jones is the power. Chipper’s slugging is over a hundred points higher as he has 292 more homeruns than Wade Boggs. He also has more RBI and an MVP, unlike Boggs.

So that leaves Mike Schmidt, with the stats being very close.

Mike Schmidt has more homeruns at 548 and has more RBI. However, Chipper Jones could surpass that RBI total given he averages 71 RBI in the next three seasons, but will likely not pass the homerun total unless he can play four more seasons and average 37 homeruns.

Chipper has a better average, slugging, OBP, and OPS. Both have won a World Series, but Schmidt has won ten Gold Gloves and two more MVPs than Chipper.

Overall it may seem like Schmidt is the clear winner, but Chipper makes a good case for himself. If we are looking at pure hitters, Chipper probably is the top hitter out of any third basemen in the Hall of Fame. All of his offensive numbers could be better than Mike Schmidt’s with the exception of homeruns. Another key element, is the fact that Chipper is a switch hitter, which he would join the likes of Eddie Murray and Mickey Mantle to make the Hall as a switch hitter. However, the ten gold gloves could be the key to the argument, which would make Schmidt the best all around third basemen. Yet the fielding percentage is very close, with Mike only having a 1-point better fielding percentage.

Either way one looks at it, Chipper will be a Hall of Famer and should, by the time he retires, be amongst the top two hall of fame third basemen.

Here are the stats of some of the hall of fame third basemen:

Name	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	Runs	RBI
C. Jones	.310	.408	.547	.955	410	1390	1382
M. Schmidt	.267	.380	.527	.907	548	1506	1595
W. Boggs	.328	.415	.443	.858	118	1513	1014
E. Mathews	.271	.376	.509	.885	512	1509	1453

So you decide who is the best third baseman of all time? (Excluding Alex Rodriguez at this time)

Who Is Going To Win It All?: MLB Playoff Predictions

Josh Roth — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 10:19:41 -0400

ALDS:

Boston Red Sox defeat Cleveland Indians

Minnesota Twins defeat Los Angeles Angels

NLDS:

Chicago Cubs defeat Atlanta Braves

Los Angeles Dodgers defeat New York Mets

ALCS:

Boston Red Sox defeat Minnesota Twins

NLCS:

Los Angeles Dodgers defeat Chicago Cubs

World Series:

Los Angeles Dodgers defeat Boston Red Sox (MVP: Andre Ethier)

National League Preview: Division, MVP, and CY Young

Josh Roth — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 22:57:16 -0400

NL East Standings

1. New York Mets

2. Atlanta Braves

3. Philadelphia Phillies

4. Florida Marlins

5. Washington Nationals

NL Central Standings

1. Chicago Cubs

2. Milwaukee Brewers

3. St. Louis Cardinals

4. Cincinnati Reds

5. Houston Astros

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

3. San Francisco Giants

4. Colorado Rockies

5. San Diego Padres

Wildcard

1. Atlanta Braves

2. Philadelphia Phillies

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

4. Milwaukee Brewers

5. St. Louis Cardinals

NL MVP

1. Manny Ramirez, LAD—With Manny back for his first full year with the Dodgers, he should put up monster numbers. It also helps to have Furcal and Hudson at the top of the order, right in front of Manny. He should put up a lot of RBI.

2. Aramis Ramirez, ChC—Here is the dark horse in the competition. He has quietly been one of the top third baseman in the league. Last year he was more patient and with his home run total expected to be around 30, it should bode well for his OPS.

Not only that, but he will drive in more runs and put more numbers up because of the addition of Milton Bradley, but Bradley needs to stay healthy, which could be a big question mark. He will still put big numbers up even without Bradley though.

3. David Wright, NYM—If the Mets do make the playoffs, expect David Wright to be right in the mix for the MVP award. He will no doubt put up the numbers to win the award and is a fan and press favorite.

4. Albert Pujols, StL—It is obvious why his name is on the list, considering he is the best hitter in the National League and probably in all of baseball. Oh yeah, and he won the award last year.

The only question one may ask is why he is so low. Well, I think he will have enough competition this year and his team will likely miss out on the postseason.

5. Ryan Braun, Mil—He is the best hitter on the Brewers and is turning into one of the best hitters in the National League. He has nice protection with Fielder, Hardy, and Hart.

He could improve his chances if guys like Weeks and Hall produce and if the Brewers make the playoffs. However, I think the Brewers will just miss the playoffs, thus decreasing his chances on winning.

NL Cy Young

1. Dan Haren, Ariz—Many people may consider Brandon Webb to be the best pitcher on the Diamondbacks, but I think this year Haren will be.

Haren’s strikeout rate was at his highest point last year, and he had his lowest WHIP number last year. He walked only 40 guys (that makes for a good K/BB ratio!).

Expect big things from him this year with an ERA right around 3.00, quite possibly below that.

2. Johan Santana, NYM—Expect big things for Johan in his second year with the Mets, not that he didn’t do well last year. He might be the best pitcher in baseball, but I see him coming up a little short. However, it won’t be a surprise if he wins it.

3. Derek Lowe, Atl—Derek Lowe was very good last year, and if he had more wins, he could have made a case for the CY Young. He is an underrated pitcher, partly because he doesn’t put up big strikeout numbers.

If the Braves make the playoffs, he should get more attention and should be a big reason why they get there.

4. Tim Lincecum, SF—Coming off a Cy Young year, Lincecum should expect a little drop off but should still be a top 10, probably top five pitcher in the National League.

Lincecum struck out a whopping 265 guys last year but did walk more than 80 guys. If his walk totals stay high and he winds up striking out less he may be less fortunate. He is only 24, going on 25 and should be a CY Young candidate for the years to come.

5. Yovani Gallardo, Mil—This guy has ace stuff and will clearly be the Brewers best pitcher with C.C. Sabathia gone. The big question will be health, which has hampered him a bit in his early career.

If he does have a healthy year expect him to put up big strikeout numbers, a low WHIP, and a low ERA.

American League Division, MVP and Cy Young Predictions

Josh Roth — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 13:04:59 -0400

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox

2. New York Yankees

3. Tampa Bay Rays

4. Baltimore Orioles

5. Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central

1. Minnesota Twins

2. Cleveland Indians

3. Chicago White Sox

4. Kansas City Royals

5. Detroit Tigers

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels

2. Oakland A’s

3. Texas Rangers

4. Seattle Mariners

MVP Candidates

1. Grady Sizemore

Grady Sizemore has a chance to have 100 runs, 100 RBIs, and 100 BB. Not to mention that he may wind up with 40 HR and 40 SB. There will be two things standing in his way. One will be whether or not the Indians make the playoffs, which I think they will.

The second will be his average, which is slightly overrated. If he brings up the average and his team makes the playoffs he should be near the top of the MVP race.

2. Justin Morneau

Justin Morneau has been a beast when it comes to driving in runs, driving in over 110 in the last three years. Expect him to do the same this year. The one discouraging thing from last year was that his homerun total went down, but I expect him back to 30 plus homeruns this year and if he keeps his average around .300 he should be a top three candidate.

The one thing that may hold him back would be whether the Twins make the playoffs or not, but I believe they will.

3. Kevin Youkilis

Kevin Youkilis had a career year last year and probably should have won MVP. The power seems to be increasing and we all know he his patient, he is the Greek God of Walks of course.

One big question mark will be his homerun total, there wasn’t too many guys with massive homerun totals last year, but that may change this year, so if he wants to sway the votes he will have to hit around 30 HR again, which I believe he will do.

Another factor will be Pedroia, as long as the media doesn’t fall in love with him again, Youkilis should be fine. Expect the OPS and RBI totals to be near the top of the AL again and for him to be a top 5 candidate for MVP.

4. Vladimir Guerrero

Vladimir Guerrero is a constant contender for the MVP award. He has a career .323 avg which is rather insane. He is also good to hit 30 HR if he stays healthy and should have around 100 RBIs too.

The big keys will be whether he can get guys in front of him to get on and if has protection following him, which he should with the addition of Bobby Abreu and the power of Mike Napoli, that is if he is in the lineup.

Another big key will be the Angels pitching; if they can get healthy soon they should have a good chance to make the playoffs, which would help Vladimir’s chances for MVP.

5. Jason Bay

Jason Bay is my sleeper pick. This was a great pick up for the Red Sox last year and should get a lot of RBI chance batting 5th or 6th in that great lineup. There will be a good chance he hits 30 plus homeruns again and his slugging will go up playing with the Green Monster in Fenway.

He is also patient which will bode well for his OPS. However, the problem with Bay is that he plays on the same team as Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ortiz. So it will be difficult, but he does have a shot, look out for Jason Bay.

CY Young Candidates

1. Jon Lester

This is a bit of a stretch, but I like Jon Lester here. He had good numbers in the second half of the year last year posting and ERA below 3. His strikeout rate also was over 7 post all star game and his walk rate went down.

Lester also plays for the Red Sox so he should have a good chance for a good amount of wins. He may need to continue to raise his strikeout rate, but I think Lester could have a big year.

2. C.C. Sabathia

Sabathia was very impressive last year for both the Indians and Brewers, but he will have a lot of pressure on him going to New York. I still expect to have a big year for the Yankees, though.

He has really good strike out to walk ratios and he struck out 251 guys last year. As long as he doesn’t let the pressure get to him and the Yankees can give him wins in his starts he should have a real good chance to take home the CY Young award.

3. Roy Halladay

Halladay is one of the best pitchers in AL. He put up great stats last year including an ERA under 3 and had a 5.28 BB/K ratio. The only thing that held him back from winning the CY Young last year was the phenomenal year of Cliff Lee.

The thing that could hold him back this year will be his team, which will probably finish near the bottom of the division, but he did wind up with 20 wins on a mediocre team. He will have a good chance to win this year and will probably, at the very least, be a top 5 candidate.

4. James Shields

James Shields has arguably been the ace of the Rays staff the last couple of years. He is still very young, but his ERA and WHIP have dropped in the past couple of seasons and he has a very good strikeout to walk ratio.

It was tough deciding between him and Kazmir, who barely missed this list, but I will give the slight nod to Shields. If the Rays can stay competitive and stay above .500, he should have a good chance to rack up more wins.

T5. Kevin Slowey

Yet again another stretch, but you got to love Sloweys BB/K ratio (5.13), the stat I love to rave about apparently. I think the most impressive thing is that he only walked 24 guys last year.

His WHIP is also very low at 1.15 and if he can do better job at keeping the ball in the yard he should have good success. However, like Derek Lowe in the NL he may not get a lot of strikeouts which could hurt him, but the thing he needs the most is the Twins to get him some wins.

Like I said before it is a big stretch, but I think there could be big things from Slowey this year.

T5. Jered Weaver

I know I am going with a 6th option, but I really like the chances of Jered Weaver. He strikes out a decent amount and overall has a solid BB/K ratio. In fact those rates have been getting better including his WHIP.

The only thing that didn’t improve was his ERA, but I expect him to have a good year this year and to continue to improve upon those numbers. Look out for Jered Weaver this year, he is a major sleeper.