Bleacher Report - Articles by M Conmy

Pac-10 Basketball 2008-09: Draft Declaration Post-Mortem

M Conmy — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:31:09 -0400

Now that the deadline for declaring for the NBA Draft has come and gone, its time to revisit the changing face of the Pac-10. I'll break down each team, looking at who declared, who's likely to return, the projected starting lineup (with key bench players), and finish with a revised rankings*. With that said, let's get started:

Arizona

Who Declared Early?: Jerryd Bayless, Chase Budinger

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Nobody

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Nic Wise	-
PG/SG	Brandon Jennings	Brandon Lavender
SF	Jamelle Horn	Fendi Onubon
PF	Jordan Hill	Emmanuel Negedu
C	Jeff Withey	-

What more can be said about Arizona than the above Projected Lineup? Although the Wildcats will have the benefit of returning proven players Nic Wise and Jordan Hill, they will need excellent play from Jennings along with a solid contribution from Withey to be contenders in the Pac-10, let alone the NCAA tournament. Again it looks like Lute Olson is going to face depth issues once again as neither Onubon, Negedu, or Lavender are proven commodities. Finally, I think Lute might be going a little crazy as some of his comments lately have been strange to say the least. It may be a long season for UA fans if Jennings doesn't live up to the hype.

ASU

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Ty Abbott	Derek Glasser
SG/SF	Rihards Kuksiks	Jamelle Mcmillan
SG/SF	James Harden	Jerren Shipp
PF	Jeff Pendergraph	?
C	Eric Boateng	-

Don't worry, the question marks are there for a reason as ASU has some young talent waiting in the wings. If either Kraidon Woods or the incoming Taylor Rohde can develop into go to role players then ASU will have depth to go along with the talent of their starters. Throw Herb Sendek into the mix and the Sun Devils field arguably the best team in the Pac-10 next year. They better make next season count though, Harden is a sure fire lottery pick and Pendergraph is out of eligibility after next season.

California

Who Declared Early?: Ryan Anderson

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Nobody

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Jerome Randle	-
SG	D.J. Seeley	Knezevic, Nikola
SG/SF	Patrick Christopher	-
SF/PF	Jamal Boykin	Harper Kamp
C	Jordan Wilkes	Max Zhang

There's a chance that Ryan Anderson comes back, but its a slim one at this point. Anderson is most likely a first round pick and its hard to say no to guaranteed money. That being said, the cupboard is hardly bare over at Berkeley. Randle, Christopher, and Boykin should all be reliable starters and may all develop into high quality players before the season starts. Mike Montgomery will have his work cut out for him, however, as Anderson's departure coupled with Hardin's loss of eligibility severely depletes the front court. Right now Cal is at the bottom or middle of thepack, it Wilkes or Zhang develops then they may find themselves at the top.

Oregon

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG/SG	Tajuan Porter	Kamyron Brown
SG	LeKendric Longmire	Matthew Humphrey
SF	Joevon Catron	-
SF	Churchill Odia	Drew Viney
C	Michael Dunigan	-

I wonder if any gambling websites will put out a line on how many months into the season it will take until Ernie Kent has a for sale sign put out in front of his house? As I mentioned before, Kent faced losing his job at the end of last season, but a late season sweep of the Arizona schools at home managed to just barely get them into the tournament. Its strange to think that a coach just a season removed from an elite 8 appearance could be on the hot seat, but such is the nature of competitive college sports. Old Ernie is going to have to do a lot with a little (seriously, this team is very lacking in size) and he will need Tajuan Porter to step up his game big time for there to be any hope of success this season. Also, don't let the fact that nobody left for the draft fool you. Oregon lost three very talented seniors, and the departure of Malik Hairston and Maarty Leunen will be especially painful.

OSU

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Josh Tarver	Ricky Claitt
SG	Omari Johnson	Lathen Wallace
SG/SF	Seth Tarver	Eshaunte Jones
PF	Sean Carter	-
C	Roeland Schaftenaar	Calvin Hampton

I suppose Oregon state has some semblance of depth as all of the above players (save for the incoming Eshaunte Jones) saw some playing time last year, but its not worth much when more or less all of your players are bad or even awful. Maybe in another with another year or so the Beavers will become a decent team, but it is just not happening next season. On the plus side, if Obama gets elected then maybe the president will make the trip to Corvallis to catch a couple of games. Although, I have heard that worshipping pagan gods and sacrificing animals can really boost a teams record... (just kidding)

Stanford

Who Declared Early?: Brook and Robin Lopez

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Nobody

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Mitch Johnson	Drew Shiller
SG	Anthony Goods	Kenny Brown
SG/SF	Landry Fields	-
PF	Lawrence Hill	Josh Owens
PF	Miles Plumlee	Will Paul

Things were looking tough for Stanford next year. The team was looking at switching over to a guard oriented playing style as the Lopez twins both declared for the draft, and surprise surprise! Trent Johnson decided he was tired of being taken for granted and bolted for greener pastures at LSU. Luckily, things are not all doom and gloom on the farm as Stanford hired former Duke assistant Johnny Dawkins, who has just a teensy bit of experience in running a guard oriented attack. Lots of questions still remain though, and it looks like Stanford will not be challenging anyone for the Pac-10 title next season.

UCLA

Who Declared Early?: Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Luc-Richard Mbah A Moute, Josh Shipp

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Luc-Richard Mbah A Moute, Josh Shipp

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG/SG	Darren Collison	Malcolm Lee
PG/SG	Jrue Holiday	Michael Roll
SG/SF	Josh Shipp	Chace Stanback
PF	LRMAM	Drew Gordon
PF/C	Alfred Aboya	Keefe/Dragovic

Talent and depth has been the story of Ben Howland's career at UCLA, and next year won't be any different. In all fairness, next year's edition won't be quite as good as last year's team. The difference may end up being quite marginal. Kevin Love's post presence will be missed, and there is no athletic finisher like Russell Westbrook in this group, but there is no doubt that this is an excellent group of players. Bruin fans should see little to no drop off in defensive efficiency. It is really up to Howland to get his offense (which is still very efficient) over the hump so to speak. Next year could be a disappointing year in Westwood, obviously a slight lack of athleticism hurt UCLA in the end, but I sincerely doubt it. Short of Hell freezing over, UCLA will be in the race for the Pac-10 title all season long.

USC

Who Declared Early?: O.J. Mayo, Davon Jefferson

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Nobody

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Angelo Johnson	Donte Smith
SG	Daniel Hackett	Dwight Lewis
SF	Demar Derozan	Leonard Washington
PF	Taj Gibson	Kasey Cunningham
C	Mamadou Diarra	Keith Wilkinson

Mayo was a one and doner from the start, but why did Jefferson have to be such a tease? At first Davon says he's coming back, but then suddenly he's declared and likely already signed with an agent. Oh well, I guess that ship has sailed. Luckily USC still returns stellar core players and adds enough talent to once again be near the top of the Pac-10. Hackett and Lewis are quality wings, and Taj Gibson should be able to play at his natural position next season. Add in the #1 SG recruit in Derozan, a former 5 star in Washington, top cali Juco PG Donte Smith, and both Cunningham and Diarra coming back from injuries, USC has qualiy talent and depth. That's a first for Coach Tim Floyd's tenure. But the real question is, can the team put it together on offense?

Washington

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Justin Dentmon	Venoy Overton
SG	Joel Smith	Scott Suggs
PF	Quincy Pondexter	Tyreese Breshers
PF	Jon Brockman	Artem Wallace
C	John Wolfinger	Matthew Bryan-Amaning

Next season could really be the season that Washington finally puts it all together. Getting quality minutes from Venoy Overton was a pleasant surprise, and although the loss of sharpshooter Ryan Appleby is a big blow the team will bring a fair amount of experience and talent to the table. The Huskies are headed by bruising forward Jon Brockman. Its clear that Washington is falling just short of being a good team. They did beat UCLA at home last season. If they can get some quality production from their highly rated class last year (along with some solid playing time from another quality class this year) then Lorenzo Romar may be able to put the past two seasons behind him. Washington may be facing a lot of uncertainty going into the offseason. At the very least its not a certainty that they will be bad.

WSU

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Taylor Rochestie	-
SG	Klay Thompson	-
SF	Daven Harmeling	Nikola Koprivica
PF	Caleb Forrest	-
C	Aron Baynes	-

The more I look closely at Washington St., the more I like what I see. Although they lose Cowgill, Weaver, and Low, the core returnees of Rochestie, Harmeling, and Baynes are all good (and in some aspects great) players already. Forrest has seen time throughout the year and played well on the court. Incoming recruit Klay Thompson should help to shore up some of the offensive output lost with the graduation of Low. The key issue facing the Cougars is a potential lack of depth. Bennett will be hard pressed to get at least one or two recruits ready for game time out of the incoming class. This will be no small feat. It took 3 years to put together the WSU team of the last two years. However, if they can establish an eight man rotation the Cougars should field another solid team.

Summary**

As of right now it seems like UCLA, ASU, and USC will be the class of the Pac-10, but I wouldn't be so certain. Arizona, Cal, Washington, and Washington St. are all poised to make a run at the top should the right pieces fall into place. In fact, just a couple of seasons ago two teams picked to finish near the bottom of the Pac-10 ended up finishing #2 and #3 so anything can happen. But in all fairness it would be a near miracle if Oregon, Oregon St., or Stanford finished in the top 4 as each of those programs face major obstacles.

Revised Pac-10 Preseason Rankings
1.)	Arizona St.	6.)	California
2.)	UCLA	7.)	Washington
3.)	USC	8.)	Oregon
4.)	Washington St.	9.)	Stanford
5.)	Arizona	10.)	Oregon St.

Notes

- As of right now the Pac-10 is probably only sending four teams to the NCAA tournament, and it will be a battle between Washington St. and Arizona for that last spot.

- Like I said before, no team will go winless and no team will go undefeated in conference. There is no one team that will survive ASU/UCLA/USC/WSU, and there is no one team that will lose to Oregon/Stanford/OSU.

- Perhaps purely by team strength the LA road trip is the toughest, but Washington St. and a resurgent UW will make the Washington road trip the true test for a teams ability to win on the road.

-I doubt anyone will argue that the Pac-10 is the best or second best conference in the nation next year.

* Projected rosters were assembled based on a number of dimensions; quality of the player, need to fill certain positions, playing time last year, among others. Once again my thanks to kenpom.com and si.cnn.com.

** You can read my original thoughts here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/16879-UCLA-vs-USC-for-Best-in-the-West-Pac-10-2008-09-Basketball-Preview-080408

UCLA vs USC for Best in the West: Pac-10 2008-09 Basketball Preview

M Conmy — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 17:45:59 -0400

Pre-NBA draft declaration deadline edition*

First, a look at the year that was**:

Overall Record: 207-133 (60.9%) Against D1: 95-24 (79.8%)

Tournament Breakdown
Round	64	32	16	8	4
# of Teams	6	3	3	1	1

Conference Rankings: RPI (2) Pomeroy Rank (2) Sagarin Rank (1)

08-09 Preview for all Ten Teams:

Arizona [07-08: 7th, 18-14 (8-10)]

Key Returners: Jordan Hill (62.0% eFG%, 7.9 RPG, .8 APG), Nic Wise (55.7 eFG%, 2.3 RG, 4.4 APG)

Key Losses: Jerryd Bayless (53.6% eFG%, 2.7 RPG, 4.0 APG), Chase Budinger (52.6 eFG%, 5.4 RPG, 2.5 APG), Jawann McClellan (49.8 eFG%, 3.6 RPG, 2.7 APG).

Key Additions: Brandon Jennings (Rivals: 5/5, #3 PG, #8 overall), Jeff Withey (Rivals: 4/5, #9 Center, #39 overall)

Arizona's biggest challenge will be replacing Jerryd Bayless, who recently announced his intention to enter the draft. Bayless led all scorers with 19.7 PPG and was able to routinely create opportunities for scoring on the perimeter, especially for Budinger, by collapsing defenses through drives into the paint. I's difficult to see who will replace Bayless at the 2 as there is not a proven player on UA's roster who fits that position. Heralded recruit Brandon Jennings has shown he can be a big time scorer, but at 6 ft 170 lbs he simply lacks the size to play shooting guard at the college level. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how the battle for point between Wise and Jennings shakes out.

Of key importance for Arizona's success will be whether or not Chase Budinger stays and continues to develop. Should Budinger stay he will be expected to be Arizona's key playmaker. If he can consistently shoot the three and get inside for offensive rebounds, and assuming Jordan Hill continues to play at a high level, then Arizona's offense will be very difficult to stop.

After a tough season the Wildcats have a lot to look forward to. Fans should welcome the return of Lute Olson and his up tempo offense from O'neil's set plays, and although Jennings can't replace Bayless, any team benefits from depth at the point guard position. As things stand Arizona should field an elite team next season, and should definitely make an improvement over this year's seventh place finish.

Arizona State [07-08: T-5th, 21-13 (9-9)]

Key Returners: James Harden (58.6 eFG%, 5.2 RPG, 3.2 APG), Jeff Pendergraph (59.3 eFG%, 6.4 RPG, .9 APG), Ty Abbott (52.4 eFG%, 3.6 RPG, 1.5 APG)

Key Losses: None, especially since Harden is not expected to declare for the draft.

Key Additions: Hard to say. I don't think anyone expected Abbott or Kuksiks to come out and contribute so quickly, so who knows how Sendek's next batch of recruits will pan out.

After a difficult 06-07 campaign in which the Sun Devils finished last in conference, Herb Sendek engineered an incredible turnaround to make ASU a serious threat in the loaded Pac 10. Much of the credit has to go to James Harden, perhaps the most overlooked member of this year's freshman class. Harden led all players at 17.8 PPG and did so with excellent efficiency. Harden also contributed significantly to rebounding and has a highly developed game. With Abbott, Kuksiks, and Glasser backing him up, Arizona St. is very well rounded in the back court.

The front court, however, is another issue. While Pendergraph is a solid (if unspectacular) PF/C, Eric Boateng must become a better overall player if ASU expects to compete on a high level. But even if Boateng becomes a significantly better player, Sendek still faces the issue of overall lack of depth at the position. Two incoming recruits(at 6'7'' and 6'8'') may be able to contribute, however, the team may have to resort to playing two small forwards (such as Harden and Kuksiks) and hope to get better production out of Kuksiks on the boards. This may be unreasonable to expect, but only the future can tell.

If Pendergraph and Boateng can endure heavy minutes and avoid foul trouble then the front court issue may be moot, but more likely than not, the lack of size will prove fatal in at least a couple of games. Expectations are high in Tempe for a team that should return every player that counts, but it still may be too soon to expect a Pac 10 title. Regardless, ASU will definitely be a contender.

California [07-08: 9th, 17-16 (6-12)]

Key Returners: Patrick Christopher (51.1 eFG%, 3.6 RPG, 2.0 APG), Jamal Boykin (52.8 eFG%, 3.8 RPG, 1.2 APG).

Key Losses: Ryan Anderson (55.9 eFG%, 9.9 RPG, 1.4 APG), Devon Hardin (55.4 eFG%, 7.4 RPG, .7 APG).

Key Additions: D.J. Seeley (Rivals: 4/5, #10 SG, #53 overall)

Save for one good season in 05-06, Berkley fans have had to endure one mediocre season after another over the last 5 years under Ben Braun. New head coach Mike Montgomery, who led Stanford to the NCAA tournament 12 times in his 18 year career, should be able to turn the program around, but how quickly depends on star player Ryan Anderson. Should Anderson return Montgomery may have Cal back in the NCAA tournament by the end of next season. Should the sophomore choose the draft, however, Montgomery will have a difficult project ahead of him.

California returns a solid back court with a lot of potential. Patrick Christopher and Jerome Randle should have no trouble handling the point, while Jamal Boykin and Harper Kamp will play swing. However, like ASU, Cal must deal with a number of question marks in their front court. With senior Devon Hardin out the door, and Anderson declaring for the draft, someone on the roster will need to step up. Seven footer Jordan Wilkes saw limited playing time last year and did little to justify more time on the court, his best game was a 6 point, 6 rebound outing against the super power Nevada. Freshman import "Max" Zhang, coming in at a towering 7'2'', saw no playing time at all. Getting those two even up to role player status will do Cal a world of good.

Without Ryan Anderson Cal loses its entire front court, and it will have to look to a pair of unproven bench warmers to fill in the gaps. With Anderson the Golden Bears may be able to build a solid game in the post and will likely have another top tier offensive attack. Without him, Cal has many more obstacles to overcome. Only time can really tell what the near future holds for Berkeley Basketball, but at least there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Oregon [07-08: T-5th, 18-14 (9-9)]

Key Returners: Tajuan Porter (49.2 eFG%, 2.3 RPG, 2.4 APG), Joevan Catron (52.8 eFG%, 5.7 RPG, 2.2 APG).

Key Losses: Maarty Leunen (66.4 eFG%, 9.2 RPG, 2.8 APG), Malik Hairston (60.9% eFG%, 4.8 RPG, 2.1 APG), Bryce Taylor (54.6 eFG%, 3.8 RPG, 1.4 APG)

Key Additions: Michael Dunigan (Rivals: 4/5, #8 C, #32 overall)

Ernie Kent was on the short list to be fired, after Ben Braun and Jay John, before Oregon pulled off a bit of a late season surge to fight their way into the NCAA tournament. Its obvious why Kent may have been sent packing; after returning four of five starters from a squad that advanced to the elite eight Oregon failed to make a significant impact in the Pac-10. Ernie may be safe for now, but he better enjoy his summer break as he'll enter next year on the hot seat again.

As can be seen from the stat line above, Maarty Leunen may be the best player no one has ever heard of. He was the team's most efficient scorer with an impressive 66.4 effective field goal percentage, and somehow led the team in both rebounds and steals. Leunen also clocked in at second in points per game and assists. Oregon will also have to replace the athletic Malik Hairston, the teams leading scorer. Oregon must also find an answer for the loss of PG Aaron Brooks, the only player who didn't return from that elite 8 squad. For Oregon to be successful Tajuan Porter must step and fill that point guard role, along with improving his mediocre 49.2 eFG%. Joevan Catron in turn will be expected to anchor Oregon's interior, despite coming in at only 6'6''.

Throughout the season I heard many comments with regard to Oregon's offense, that they were missing shots they made last year, that they weren't as explosive, blah blah blah. In truth Oregon had an offense comparable to those of the best teams in the country, ranking #6 in Division 1 according to stats guru Ken Pomeroy. It was their defense that stunk. If Ernie Kent can somehow equal that offensive output next year and improve their D, Oregon would be an elite team. However, if Kent couldn't do it with last year's experienced lineup then its doubtful he will be able to do it with an almost entirely new starting 5. Oregon is looking at a tough year ahead, and probably looking at a new coach after next season.

Oregon St. [07-08: 10th, 6-25 (0-18)]

Key Returners: Roeland Schaftenaar (48.4 eFG%, 4.1 RPG, .6 APG)

Key Losses: I would say Marcel Jones, but he was pretty bad. I would also say CJ Giles, but he was dismissed earlier in the year.

Key Additions: Eshaunte Jones (Rivals: 3/5, #31 SG, #121 Overall) has a legitimate shot at becoming OSU's best palyer.

The future is bleak for Oregon St. fans. After a season in which the team saw its head coach get fired, had one of its better players dismissed (C.J. Giles), and experienced the worst Pac 10 record in history there is still not much to look forward to. New Coach Craig Robinson was able to engineer a turnaround at Brown in his two years there, but the Pac 10 is about as far removed as you can get from the Ivy League.

OSU suffers from an overall lack of talent. In fact, no Beaver ranks in the top 500 players in the country in eFG%. The 6'11'' Roeland Schaftenaar, who averaged about 19.2 minutes per game, actually leads all players in effective shooting percentage. No immediate solutions are incoming either, as 3 star Eshaunte Jones is the best in the two man class. It will be very difficult to effectively execute even Robinson's preferred Princeton offense with the current crop of players.

Who knows, maybe Oregon St. will be this year's Washington St., but I honestly doubt it. It is still probable that even moderate success is at least two years away, but at least OSU has begun the process of rebuilding. Besides, the Beavers cannot possibly be any worse than they were this year.

Stanford [07-08: 2nd, 28-8 (13-5)]

Key Returners: Mitch Johnson (50.8 eFG%, 4.3 RPG, 5.2 APG), Lawrence Hill (47.1 eFG%, 4.8 RPG, 1.1 APG).

Key Losses: Brook Lopez (46.8 eFG%, 8.2 RPG, 1.4 APG), Robin Lopez (53.6 eFG%, 5.7 RPG, .6 APG), Taj Finger (55.9 eFG%, 4.4 RPG, .5 APG).

Key Additions: Jeremy Green (Rivals: 4/5, #17 SG, #75 overall)

Believe it or not, if Stanford wants to win games next year they will need to rely on their guards. Mitch Johnson, Anthony Goods, and Kenny Brown will all have to step up in a big way as the Cardinal's front court will be severely depleted with the loss of the Lopez twins to the draft and senior Taj Finger to graduation. In other words, Stanford may be in for a long season.

Lawrence Hill will in all likelihood be their best player in the post next year and will need to be more aggressive in rebounding and scoring to make up for the loss of Stanford's star players. In addition, 6'7'' Landry Fields may have to make the transition to forward as 6'8'' freshman Josh Owens saw few minutes while 6'9'' sophomore Will Paul saw no playing time whatsoever. Even if coach Trent Johnson sees significant improvement in Lawrence Hill's game its clear that post play will be a downgrade over this past season. On the bright side, if Mitch Johnson can continue to dish the ball into the post with the same effectiveness he had last year, then at least play in the paint won't be a weakness.

There are few elite programs that are able to avoid the dreaded rebuilding year, and Stanford just is not one of them. Trent Johnson has done an admirable job of continuing the program's success after the departure of former coach Mike Montgomery, but there is no dancing around the fact that the 08-09 Stanford team just is not as talented as recent Cardinal teams. Barring a major surprise, the farm will field an average to good team that will fight it out in the middle of the Pac 10. For the sake of Trent Johnson, let us hope that Montgomery doesn't have to much success in his first year at Berkeley.

UCLA [07-08: 1st, 35-4 (16-2)]

Key Returners so far: Kevin Love (60.1 eFG%, 10.6 RPG, 1.9 APG), Darren Collison (57.2 eFG%, 2.6 RPG, 3.8 APG), Russell Westbrook (49.5 eFG%, 3.9 RPG, 4.3 APG)

Key Losses: Lorenzo Mata-Real (49.5 eFG%, 3.5 RPG, .2 APG)

Key Additions: Jrue Holiday (Rivals: 5/5, #1 PG, #3 Overall), Drew Gordon (Rivals 4/5, #16 PF, #49 Overall)

What more can be said about UCLA? The Bruins are arguably the most successful basketball program of all time and are beginning to glimpse the glory days of John Wooden under the direction of coach Ben Howland. It is fair to say that no other program, except perhaps Florida, has experienced the same amount of success year in and year out as UCLA over the last 3 years. But with the draft looming large it is hard to say if the team will continue to achieve at the same level going into 2008-09.

There is no doubt that UCLA will field the deepest and most talented team in the conference should everyone return, but what if Love, Collison, and Westbrook declare for the draft as expected? Luckily for fans of the true blue and gold, the team has quality players waiting in the wings. There is no question that UCLA will not be able to completely replace Love's production, but a rotation of Mbah-a-Moute, Aboya, Keefe, Dragovic, and the incoming Drew Gordon will go a long way in wearing down opposing post players. In addition, Jrue Holiday should be able to replace Collison or Westbrook without too much drop off in athleticism or talent. The team will also welcome the return of guard Michael Roll, who has sat out most of the season due to injury.

At least until April 26, UCLA is the best team in the Pac 10. Realistically, however, they face losing their three best players to the draft and will have a tough battle to fight in conference. Regardless of how much talent UCLA loses, expect them to be favorites for the Pac 10 title next year through sheer depth and quality coaching.

USC [07-08: T-3rd, 21-12 (11-7)]

Key Returners so far: O.J. Mayo (52.4 eFG%, 4.5 RPG, 3.3 APG), Davon Jefferson (58.3 eFG%, 6.3 RPG, .8 APG), Taj Gibson (58.0 eFG%, 7.8 RPG, 1.3 APG).

Key Losses: None, USC does not have a single senior or player who has declared... yet

Key Additions: Demar Derozan (Rivals: 5/5, #1 SG, #2 Overall), Leonard Washington (Rivals: 3/5, SF)

If, and that's a huge IF, USC returns all of their players, they have the makings of a legitimate national championship contender. O.J. Mayo would be leading a squad that would start 5 players as talented and athletic as any other team in the country. But in order to win, USC's players (especially Jefferson) must develop the skillset to take full advantage of that raw talent.

The Trojans were wildly inconsistent all year. Just three games after holding both Kansas and Memphis to their season lows in regulation play, USC fell to conference foe California 92-82 . Moreover, USC had an excellent defense but could never put plays together consistently on offense. The guards often struggled to get the ball to Gibson in the post and were too hesitant to drive inside and kick it out. Hopefully incoming recruit Demar Derozan can help flesh out this area of SC's game. Also, keep an eye on whether Floyd succeeds or not in developing Leonard Washington. The former 5-star forward has experienced a rapid fall from grace thanks to academic and discipline problems, but Tim Floyd has developed other former delinquent players, including current star Davon Jefferson and the troubled Loderick Stewart.

USC heads into next season just like they came into last season, with a great deal of uncertainty. As long as two of the big three return the Trojans will be a legitimate player in the Pac 10, but if all three go Tim Floyd could be facing a tough season in the shadow of the omnipresent football program.

Washington [07-08: 8th, 16-17 (7-11)]

Key Returners: Jon Brockman (53.6 eFG%, 11.6 RPG, 1.1 APG), Quincy Pondexter (48.1 eFG%, 4.8 RPG, 1.9 APG).

Key Losses: Ryan Appleby (54.9 eFG%, 1.2 RPG, 1.4 APG)

Key Additions: Tyreese Breshers (Rivals: 4/5, #21 PF, #66 Overall), Isaiah Thomas (Rivals: 4/5, #15 PG, #89 Overall)

It has been a strange couple of years for Washington. Just two years ago the Huskies were competing with UCLA for the Pac 10 championship. That same year Washington advanced to the Sweet 16 (falling in overtime to UConn), and brought in a heralded recruiting class headed by top center Spencer Hawes. Despite this, Washington finished 19-13 with an 8-10 mark in conference.

Things only got worse in 2008 even though Lorenzo Romar brought in another quality recruiting class. I know next to nothing about recruiting high school prospects, but it makes one wonder about the ability of the Huskies' staff to correctly scout talent. Perhaps it is still premature to completely judge these classes, if all this potential talent comes together next season then Washington will be a force to be reckoned with. However, one thing is certain, someone will have to step up and take over Appleby's role as a perimeter shooter, otherwise the team is looking at the bottom of the Pac 10 once again.

Having Tyreese Breshers or Isaiah Thomas come in and produce as freshmen would go along way in validating Romar's recruiting abilities. Washington will wtill get quality play out of big man Jon Brockman, but someone else on the roster needs to show they are a star player. If Washington fails to put together a quality season soon, then recruiting will be the least of the Huskies' problems.

Washington St. [07-08: T-3rd, 26-9 (11-7)]

Key Returners: Taylor Rochestie (56.8 eFG%, 3.2 RPG, 4.7 APG), Aron Baynes (60.0 eFG%, 6.0 RPG, .3 APG), Daven Harmeling (55.0 eFG%, 2.2 RPG, .8 APG).

Key Losses: Kyle Weaver (50.3 eFG%, 5.3 RPG, 4.3 APG), Derrick Low (55.2 eFG%, 1.8 RPG, 1.6 APG), Robbie Cowgill (54.1 eFG%, 5.1 RPG, .7 APG).

Key Additions: Michael Harthun (Rivals: 3/5, #29 SG, #115 Overall)

Washington St. is a bizarre team to say the least. Somehow they developed into a top-ten team without a single heralded recruit or even a particularly well known coach. No offense to Dick Bennett, he did lead 8 seed Wisconsin to the final four in 2000 after all, but nobody could have expected what has happened in WSU Basketball over the last two years.

But can this trend possibly continue? Current coach Tony Bennett returns a solid core of starters; Taylor Rochestie is a deceptively athletic guard who can shoot from the perimeter and create his own shot. In addition, Aron Baynes uses his body to create space in the post better than just about every other center in college basketball. Rounding out the veteran trio is sharpshooting forward Daven Harmeling. Still, coach Bennett faces the sizeable challenge of replacing the lost offensive production from Weaver, Low, and Cowgill in a system that emphasizes defense and slow tempo. There is no real telling who will replace these players, but then again, there was no real telling that the Cougars were going to be this good in the first place.

Next year will be a pivotal year for Washington St. If Bennett can continue to win with under-recruited talent he will certainly go down as one of the best at developing players in the NCAA despite his young age. Additionally Bennett could establish WSU as a long-term Pac-10 power. However, if they return to mediocrity then the past two seasons will likely be viewed as a statistical anomaly, and Bennett will not have the the number of high quality coaching job offers available. Here's to hoping that he doesn't become a victim of his own success.

Pre-Declaration Pre-Season Pre-dictions (Get it?):

1.)	UCLA	6.)	Oregon
2.)	Arizona St.	7.)	Washington
3.)	USC	8.)	California
4.)	Arizona	9.)	Stanford
5.)	Washington St.	10.)	Oregon St.

Final Thoughts***

- Simply put, the Pac-10 will not be as good top to bottom next season as they were last season

- The Pac-10 will send no more than five teams to next year's NCAA tournament

- No team will finish conference play undefeated, no team will finish without a win in conference

* No attempt at predicting who may or may not enter the draft were made. All players who have declared, whether they signed with an agent or not, are assumed to be gone from school.

** All statistics taken from kenpom.com and sportsillustrated.cnn.com

*** I will do a short update after the NBA draft declaration deadline

The Dollars and Cents of the NBA Draft, Pt. 2

M Conmy — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 09:16:41 -0400

Case Study: OJ Mayo

There is no doubt that OJ Mayo is the best player on the USC basketball team.

Despite the fact that Mayo played about 36 minutes per game and took about 34.5 percent of the Trojans' shots, he still managed to effectively shoot 52 percent from the field, thanks in large part to his ability to consistently shoot the three. (source: http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Southern%20California&y=2008).

OJ also has an impressive skill set, marked by his ability to create space with a quick jab step, routinely split defenders, and beat his man in one-on-one situations. He is also NBA ready to play the one, with great height and build for that position.

The point of the preceding is not to sing his praises, but to make it clear that Mayo is ready for the NBA.

This article is not going to focus on how he could improve his game or potential by staying in college; this argument really doesn't hold any water. What we are going to focus on is the definite positives and negatives that will affect Mayo's draft stock in the future.

Here is the Comparison Matrix again for reference:

Pay Comparison Matrix In the NBA Lottery: Percentage Increase/Decrease over pay received in 1st Year at that position in the draft
Pick #	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	0.0%	11.8%	24.5%	38.0%	52.4%	67.8%	83.9%
2	-10.5%	0.0%	11.4%	23.5%	36.4%	50.2%	64.5%
3	-19.7%	-10.2%	0.0%	10.9%	22.5%	34.8%	47.7%
4	-27.6%	-19.0%	-9.8%	0.0%	10.4%	21.6%	33.2%
5	-34.4%	-26.7%	-18.4%	-9.4%	0.0%	10.1%	20.6%
6	-40.4%	-33.4%	-25.8%	-17.7%	-9.2%	0.0%	9.5%
7	-45.6%	-39.2%	-32.3%	-24.9%	-17.1%	-8.7%	0.0%
8	-50.2%	-44.3%	-38.0%	-31.2%	-24.0%	-16.4%	-8.4%
9	-54.2%	-48.8%	-43.0%	-36.8%	-30.2%	-23.1%	-15.8%
10	-56.5%	-51.4%	-45.8%	-39.9%	-33.7%	-27.0%	-20.0%
11	-58.7%	-53.8%	-48.6%	-43.0%	-37.0%	-30.6%	-24.0%
12	-60.7%	-56.1%	-51.1%	-45.8%	-40.1%	-34.1%	-27.8%
13	-62.7%	-58.3%	-53.6%	-48.5%	-43.1%	-37.4%	-31.4%
14	-64.6%	-60.4%	-55.9%	-51.1%	-46.0%	-40.5%	-34.8%

	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
1	100.7%	118.3%	129.8%	142.0%	154.7%	168.1%	182.2%
2	79.6%	95.3%	105.6%	116.5%	127.8%	139.8%	152.5%
3	61.2%	75.4%	84.6%	94.4%	104.6%	115.4%	126.7%
4	45.4%	58.2%	66.5%	75.3%	84.5%	94.2%	104.4%
5	31.6%	43.2%	50.8%	58.7%	67.0%	75.8%	85.1%
6	19.6%	30.1%	36.9%	44.2%	51.7%	59.7%	68.1%
7	9.2%	18.7%	25.0%	31.6%	38.5%	45.8%	53.5%
8	0.0%	8.8%	14.5%	20.6%	26.9%	33.6%	40.6%
9	-8.1%	0.0%	5.3%	10.8%	16.6%	22.8%	29.2%
10	-12.7%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.3%	10.8%	16.6%	22.8%
11	-17.1%	-9.8%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.2%	10.8%	16.6%
12	-21.2%	-14.3%	-9.8%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.3%	10.8%
13	-25.1%	-18.6%	-14.3%	-9.7%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.3%
14	-28.9%	-22.6%	-18.6%	-14.2%	-9.7%	-5.0%	0.0%

Let's look at a table of draft projections for Mayo:

Mayo Draft Projections (As of March 30, 2008)*
Website/Pundit	Projection
mynbadraft.com	4.0
draftexpress.com	5.0
espn.com	4.0
insidehoops.com	8.0
hoopshype.com	5.0
hoopsaddict.com	5.0
nbadraft.net	8.0
sportprojections.com	5.0

AVERAGE	5.5
DEVIATION	+/- 1.6
*Must have been updated in the past two weeks

This sample was generated simply by putting NBA Mock Draft into Google and combing through the results.

Obviously there are faults with this method, as it may let in unreliable sources, but this is about as unbiased a sample as one can get. It's very consistent as well; notice that every value falls well within two standard deviations from the mean. Assuming OJ can expect to go fifth or sixth in the draft, how much higher could he go if he stays one more year?

The single biggest motivator for Mayo to stay is the simple fact that next year's draft class will simply not be as good as this one. An exit this year will likely mean Mayo must go against other talented guards including Rose, Gordon, Bayless, Westbrook, and import Danilo Gallinari. Additionally, if teams are in need of big men, Mayo will also be indirectly competing against Beasley, (Brook) Lopez, and Griffin.

What about next year?

In terms of guards there are not many who look to have the same level of talent and athleticism as Mayo.

Demar Derozan has the athleticism, but not the skill set. Brandon Jennings may develop to rival Mayo as well, but the only guard coming out next year with comparable talent, athleticism, and the all-important upside is ASU's James Harden.

Next year's lottery also looks to feature a dirge of talented big men including B.J. Mullens, Joe Alexander, Al-Farouq Aminu, Kosta Koufos, and Jordan Hill. For teams in immediate need of a guard, Mayo will look extremely attractive in a crowded field of big men.

By simply staying one more year and generating comparable numbers, Mayo will at least improve one pick (and possibly two).

Mayo should also benefit from better overall talent at USC next year. Logically, Mayo should become a scoring point next season with Derozan and Hackett taking over the SG/SF positions.

Additionally, Mayo will likely not be depended upon for so many minutes as USC should finally be able to overcome the large number of injuries they endured this past season. Likely, this means better efficiency for Mayo along with fewer turnovers, which again means a higher spot in the draft.

On the flip side, the biggest issue Mayo faces is potential worsening. If his statistics either a.) stay similar without increased efficiency or b.) get worse, then it's likely that he will face significant backlash from the scouts thanks to all of the hype that has surrounded him since junior high.

This is no trivial concern, as Tim Floyd is first and foremost a defensive minded coach, and Mayo's offensive numbers would be considered impressive on more or less every team in the country.

However, in lieu of a great deal of regression year over year Mayo would only face a potential, and I stress potential, drop of one or two picks.

OJ must also look carefully at being outclassed by a player on his own team, namely projected future lottery pick Demar Derozan. Being a talented player on a talented team rarely hurts ones draft stock, but the potential exists for Derozan to play the 2 better than Mayo did this year on a similar team. This could cost Mayo a pick as well.

The tally so far?

A definite +1 based on talent level of the next draft class, with +1 on potential increased efficiency. This goes with -2 for potential stagnation along with a possible -1 for being outclassed on his own teammate.

In other words, Mayo could go as high as second overall, but is more likely to go third or fourth, while facing a potential downside of seventh or eighth overall.

Using the pay comparison matrix, this translates to a range of increases of +10.4 percent to +50.2 percent based on whether he would go fifth or sixth this year up to fourth to second next year. On the other hand, Mayo could see a loss, again depending on whether he would go fifth or sixth this year down to seventh or eighth, of -8.7 percent to -24.0 percent.

Even with this fairly concrete analysis (which is by no means comprehensive) we still get a great deal of uncertainty in our results (+10.4 percent to +50.2 percent against -8.7 percent to -24.0 percent).

Regardless, assuming the analysis is correct then Mayo should stay for one more year.

Now adjust for reality, take into account the shortcomings mentioned in the first article.

Also, Mayo may not be risk neutral.

He may want to take the sure thing now over future uncertainty. We also cannot say how much factors such as the desire to win a championship or family financial situations may effect his final decision. Regardless, from a purely economic perspective, Mayo should bide his time.

As an aside, anyone can easily perform this kind of analysis. Look at the assumptions and facts I worked with starting in the opening paragraphs and then collect a little data on expectations of draft position. Obviously players like Mayo, Rose, or Beasley are easier to analyze than others, but this type of analysis should work for any player.

Finally thanks to OJ for the fun season at USC, and I wish the best of luck to him and all players considering entering the NBA draft this year.

questions/comments: ??conmy??@??usc.edu?? (delete the question marks)

The Dollars and Cents of the NBA Draft, Pt. 1

M Conmy — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:26:20 -0400

It seems like whenever I read any analysis on whether or not players should stay or go with regards to the NBA Draft, the author tends to focus mainly on intangible aspects.

They question whether the player can improve their draft stock, if they can potentially win a conference or national championship, whether they enjoy the college experience, or for any number of other reasons.

This is all well and good, but it doesn't really tell us anything meaningful about whether the player will, or should, enter the NBA Draft.

The question is, why the need for all of these difficult to measure qualifiers when we have quantifiable data in the form of the guaranteed pay for each pick in the NBA Draft.

This brings us to the Pay Comparison Matrix*:

Pay Comparison Matrix In the NBA Lottery: Percentage Increase/Decrease over pay received in 1st Year at that position in the draft
Pick #	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	0.0%	11.8%	24.5%	38.0%	52.4%	67.8%	83.9%
2	-10.5%	0.0%	11.4%	23.5%	36.4%	50.2%	64.5%
3	-19.7%	-10.2%	0.0%	10.9%	22.5%	34.8%	47.7%
4	-27.6%	-19.0%	-9.8%	0.0%	10.4%	21.6%	33.2%
5	-34.4%	-26.7%	-18.4%	-9.4%	0.0%	10.1%	20.6%
6	-40.4%	-33.4%	-25.8%	-17.7%	-9.2%	0.0%	9.5%
7	-45.6%	-39.2%	-32.3%	-24.9%	-17.1%	-8.7%	0.0%
8	-50.2%	-44.3%	-38.0%	-31.2%	-24.0%	-16.4%	-8.4%
9	-54.2%	-48.8%	-43.0%	-36.8%	-30.2%	-23.1%	-15.8%
10	-56.5%	-51.4%	-45.8%	-39.9%	-33.7%	-27.0%	-20.0%
11	-58.7%	-53.8%	-48.6%	-43.0%	-37.0%	-30.6%	-24.0%
12	-60.7%	-56.1%	-51.1%	-45.8%	-40.1%	-34.1%	-27.8%
13	-62.7%	-58.3%	-53.6%	-48.5%	-43.1%	-37.4%	-31.4%
14	-64.6%	-60.4%	-55.9%	-51.1%	-46.0%	-40.5%	-34.8%

	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
1	100.7%	118.3%	129.8%	142.0%	154.7%	168.1%	182.2%
2	79.6%	95.3%	105.6%	116.5%	127.8%	139.8%	152.5%
3	61.2%	75.4%	84.6%	94.4%	104.6%	115.4%	126.7%
4	45.4%	58.2%	66.5%	75.3%	84.5%	94.2%	104.4%
5	31.6%	43.2%	50.8%	58.7%	67.0%	75.8%	85.1%
6	19.6%	30.1%	36.9%	44.2%	51.7%	59.7%	68.1%
7	9.2%	18.7%	25.0%	31.6%	38.5%	45.8%	53.5%
8	0.0%	8.8%	14.5%	20.6%	26.9%	33.6%	40.6%
9	-8.1%	0.0%	5.3%	10.8%	16.6%	22.8%	29.2%
10	-12.7%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.3%	10.8%	16.6%	22.8%
11	-17.1%	-9.8%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.2%	10.8%	16.6%
12	-21.2%	-14.3%	-9.8%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.3%	10.8%
13	-25.1%	-18.6%	-14.3%	-9.7%	-5.0%	0.0%	5.3%
14	-28.9%	-22.6%	-18.6%	-14.2%	-9.7%	-5.0%	0.0%

Don't be intimidated, once you understand how the table works, it's really quite simple. For example, say that I am a power forward who will be picked at no. 10 in the draft this year, but I could potentially move up to be the sixth overall pick.

If I go to column 10, row six, I'll see that this would be a 36.9 percent increase over the pay I'd receive If I could move from the tenth to the sixth pick overall.

However, it's also possible that because of a crowded incoming class of big men, I can fall to the 14th overall pick. This would mean a loss in pay of 18.6 percent for falling from tenth to 14th.

So what should I do? Assuming that its equally likely that I could rise to sixth overall than fall to 14th, I should wait one more year as the potential upside outweighs the downside.

Obviously, there are a number of limitations to this analysis. For example, anyone familiar with economics knows that every additional dollar earned is not quite as valuable as the previous dollar.

This means that if I receive a $1000 raise this year, and a $1000 raise next year, the second year's raise will not bring me nearly as much increased utility as the one in the first year.

It is more likely that players have a minimum amount of money they're willing to settle for, and each additional dollar above that point has a diminishing return (or in clearer language, each dollar has less utility than the last).

Additionally, it is much easier to fall in the draft than rise; its pretty clear that there is a limit to how much one can rise in the draft, but no real limit on how far a player can fall (which the injured Shaun Livingston knows all too well).

Despite the pay matrix's shortcomings it is still a useful tool, and we'll get a chance to see it in action in Part two with a case study on the draft prospects of USC guard OJ Mayo.

*Generated in Microsoft Excel through original research. Anyone is welcome to use, but please link if you do.