Bleacher Report - Articles by Myles Valentin

Fading Florida: Will The Gators Have a Strong Year Against The Spread?

Myles Valentin — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 15:25:15 -0400

With Mr. Perfect himself, Tim Tebow leading the way and all defensive starters returning, the 2009 Florida Gators have a strong shot at becoming the first team to be back to back BCS (not National) Champions.

But this may be the year to bet against Florida.

The Gators were 13-1 straight up last year and were an amazing 11-2 ATS. While there is little doubt that Tebow's disciples will put together another impressive year, history shows that repeating the same success, against the spread, will be a bit more difficult.

2003 USC 12-1 (11-2 ATS)

2004 USC 13-0 (8-5 ATS)

Like the 2009 Gators big things were expected of the 2004 USC Trojans, who were returning JR QB Matt Leinart and SO RB Reggie Bush. The Hollywood hype surrounding this #1 ranked team was reflected in the lines for that year.

The Trojans were double digit favorites in all but one regular season game and were favored by 25 or more points in five. In the previous year they were only 25+ point favorites once.

The team did not disappoint going 13-0 and blowing out Oklahoma in the BCS Title Game, but USC had trouble covering PAC 10 games on the road leading to a 3 win drop off in their ATS record.

2003 LSU 13-1 (11-2 ATS)

2004 LSU 9-3 (5-6-1 ATS)

The situation surrounding the defending BCS Champion LSU Tigers was different from Florida and USC. They were starting a new QB in Jamarcus Russell and were ranked a couple spots below USC at #4.

2004 was tough for the Tigers playing three ranked SEC teams on the road and dealing with rumors of Nick Saban's departure to the NFL. At Death Valley the oddsmakers showed no mercy as they were double digit favorites in six of their seven games at home. Of those six games in which they were double digit favorites, the Tigers only covered the spread twice.

2005 TEXAS 13-0 (11-2 ATS)

2006 TEXAS 10-3 (5-7 ATS)

Vince Young did the improbable, allowing Texas natives Matthew McConaughey and Lance Armstrong to rush the field after upsetting the USC Trojans at the Rose Bowl. In 2006 Matthew and Lance would return, but Vince headed to the NFL. A repeat 13-0 year was unlikely to occur, but still big things were expected with Texas ranked #3 in the preseason.

The Longhorns were decent that year going 10-3, but they saw a six point drop off in their ATS victories going from 11 to 5. Texas's covering problems occurred towards the end of the year, beating the spread only once in their last six games.

As with these past examples Florida bettors will have to deal with big numbers and improved efforts from SEC opponents. As defending champs, the Gators won't have to worry too much about margin of victory to impress the polls. So expect Urban Meyer to bring in his subs early in blowouts allowing for stressful backdoor opportunities.

Also Gator backers should be weary of in conference games. During the regular season last year, all Gator victories vs. SEC teams were by twenty points or more. History shows that USC, LSU, and Texas's ATS drop off, came at the hands of inconference rivals.

10 plus Gator wins ATS will be tough . But then again anything is possible. Their QB attends a school with one of the most attractive student populaces and answered "Yes" at a recent SEC press conference when asked if "he was saving himself for marriage".

Florida opens the season against Charleston Southern where they are 63 point favorites. Story reprinted with permission from covers.com

Pau Gasol a Hero for Magic Bettors

Myles Valentin — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 02:57:18 -0400

In the second game of the NBA Finals, Orlando Magic fans (or degenerate bettors depending on your point of view) found a hero in Pau Gasol and a sellout in J.J. Reddick.

The point spread was set at -6.5 in favor of the hometown Los Angeles Lakers despite the Lakers easily covering the spread in the first game of the series.

The majority of the betting public was on the side of the Lakers expecting a repeat performance. Rashad Lewis and the Orlando Magic defense had other plans.

Lewis was incredible from beyond the arc kepping the game close. Kobe was a bit off and Bynum seemed to have his thoughts on the Playboy mansion.

A Lakers cover seemed impossible, but the Magic would blow several opportunities in regulation to cover.

Tied 88—88, Kobe Bryant drove into a triple team and attempted what would have been a game winning shot. Hedo Turkoglu blocked him from behind. Magic bettors were in panic mode.

Still there was another chance for the Magic cover to be locked but rookie Courtney Lee seemed more focused on *tapping the backboard instead of hitting the game winning shot. *(please note that for many that are vertically inclined, tapping the backboard is equal to a dunk)

With Turkoglu blocking Kobe's game winner and Lee messing up a solid play, the Lakers would now have an extra five minutes to cover the spread.

The Lakers kept bettors on their seats jumping out to a huge six point lead. Thankfully Rashad Lewis hit a key three—pointer. Odom came back and hit two free throws but the Lakers were still only up by five.

What was to follow was one of the most exciting sequences of events in NBA Finals history (for bettors at least).

J.J. Redick attempted a three point shot but missed, Lewis grabbed the offensive board, then he missed. Ariza got the rebound and all looked safe for Orlando Magic bettors.

However for some odd reason with the "actual" game out of reach, J.J. Reddick lunged straight towards Ariza attempting an intentional foul. This would have put Ariza to the line and would have given the Lakers a chance to cover the spread.

Thankfully Pau Gasol stood in the way of Redick and the clock ran down, preventing an intentional foul.

Lakers won 101—96 going up 2—0 in the series. More importantly the Magic covered, extending their amazing run against the spread.

After starting the NBA Playoffs 0—4 ATS the Orlando Magic have gone 12—5 ATS and are 8—2 ATS in their last 10.

The line for game three has opened up at four points in favor of the Magic.

The current state of the economy has forced the author to become a degenerate gambler. He had money on the Magic to cover and on the under, but is still recovering from a Cavs series bet.

Toledo Athletics: A Case in "How Not To Fix Games"

Myles Valentin — Fri, 08 May 2009 02:19:40 -0400

Please note players listed in above photo from 1997 were not involved in the Toledo point—shaving scandal.

On Wednesday, federal indictments were handed out to two Detroit—area men, Ghazi Manni and Mitchell Edward Karman, along with several members of the Toledo Rockets basketball and football teams—all in connection to a series of games that were believed to be fixed between 2004 and 2006.

As I went through the court documents, I was disgusted with what I saw. Had I been in on the fix, I actually would have lost money!

The indictment lists the basketball games in question, along with the amount of money being wagered. If one were to follow Manni and Karman's bet strategy, they would finish with a *9-6-2 ATS record, having lost $54,000.

I would want much better than a 9-6-2 record.

Bet plan below:

Nov. 20/05 42K South Carolina -12 PUSH
Nov. 27/05 10K SMU +2 LOSS
Dec. 2/05 10K NIU +8.5 WON
Dec. 17/05 44K St. Bonaventure +10.5 LOSS
Dec. 21/05 21K ECU WON
Jan. 4/06 10K Kent St. -5 WON
Jan. 7/06 15K Akron -6.5 WON
Jan. 15/06 17K BGSU +4.5 WON
Jan. 18/06 21K Miami (OH) -6.5 WON
Jan. 24/06 40K NIU -5.5 LOSS
Feb. 1/06 40K WMU -1.5 WON
Feb. 4/06 20.5K CMU +14 LOSS
Feb. 7/06 20K Kent St. -1.5 LOSS
Feb. 18/06 30K Detroit -2.5 LOSS
Nov. 20/06 25K VCU +1 PUSH
Dec. 2/06 21K Vandy -4 WON
Dec. 19/06 21K Detroit +10.5 WON

Even the games in which the Toledo basketball team managed to count properly and not cover the spread were way too close for comfort

Take for instance the February 1, 2006 gameat Western Michigan. Manni and Karman had $40,000 on WMU who were favored by 1.5 points. The game came down to the final 30 seconds with Kasif Payne (indicted by the way) missing two free throws.

I'm sorry but if I fix a game and have $40,000 on it, I want the game to not come down to the final seconds. And actually what disgusts me most about Manni and Karman is not their record ATS as it is above 50 percent, but rather their money management. They were 1-2-1 in games where they bet over $40,000.

Basically you had no advantage from being "in" on these fixed Toledo basketball games. It's the equivalent of buying picks from Brandon Lang.

So remember kids, just because you know a game is going to be fixed, it does not mean that the fix will be carried out properly.

I'm here to help.

Other Notes from games:

—After a 2-1-2 start against the spread (not good for bettors in on the fix), the Toledo basketball team finally got the hang of things by losing the next five against the spread.

—Toledo messed up the last three fixed games of the 2005/06 season by covering the spread, no doubt causing a tense if not awkward offseason.

—Toledo came back and did their job the next season losing two against the spread and having one push. However all these games were close. The Vandy game went into OT and only missed by one point, while they only lossed the Detroit game by half a point.

Source information taken from court documents and lines from covers.com archives of the 2005/06 and 2006/07 basketball seasons.

Author did not bet on any MAC basketball games during the 2005/2006 season. His gambling picks (he's on a roll in MLB) can be followed fixed—free on twitter.

Lakers Fail to Cover in Game 5 with Exciting Final Minute (for Bettors)

Myles Valentin — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 02:40:54 -0400

The Los Angeles Lakers are easily becoming the most unreliable team at home in the 2009 NBA Playoffs as the Utah Jazz covered the 12-point spread by one in the fifth and final game of the series.

This is the third straight game at home in which the spread came down to the final minute.

Up 82-63 heading into the fourth quarter the Lakers looked to have the cover clinched, as Jerry Sloan put in his bench while the Lakers kept most of their starters in.

But sloppy play and several missed free throws put the Jazz within striking distance of covering the spread.

Then the final minute produced a see-saw battle for bettors on both sides.

1:09: Jerry Sloan ejected, Fisher hits free throw. Score 99-89

1:02: Gasol misses first free throw, then hits second. Score: 100-89

0:54: Gasol fouls Okur (with an 11 point lead??) Okur hits both free throws: Score 100-91

0:52: Gasol fouled and again misses a free throw going 1-for-2: Score 101-91

0:31: Korver misses a three-pointer, Fisher then fouled and sent to the line. Like Gasol, Fisher goes 1-for-2. Score 102-91

0:27: Korver hits a three-point shot, Fisher fouled again and this time he hits both free throws. Score 104-94

0:11: Odom dunks ball and is given one shot at the line. Score 106-94. With a chance to cover, he MISSES the free throw.

0:05: Ronnie Price (pictured above) attempts a dunk and is fouled. He is then given a Technical Foul for talking.

Fisher given free throw shot, he hits. Score: 107-94

Price given two shots, he hits both for the Utah Jazz cover. FINAL Score 107-96 Utah covers by one point

On the plus side for Lakers fans, the Jazz were kept to under 100 points meaning that for the first time in the playoffs the fans who paid top dollar for tickets were treated to two free tacos. This is important in this economy.

The Lakers finished the first round 3-2 ATS, meanwhile both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets are undefeated in the playoffs ATS at 4-0. As two-point underdogs, the Nuggets won game four in New Orleans 121-63, covering the spread by 60 points.

The author hopes that more people will bet on the NBA, as this type of exciting action happens every night.... when money is on the line. And in this economy, how can one not gamble?

Rip Hamilton and Derek Fisher Frustrate Bettors on Missed Opportunities

Myles Valentin — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 02:49:09 -0400

Move over "Ray Allen Game Two three point jump-shot", the most exciting/frustrating plays in the NBA playoffs occurred on Tuesday night. Well for bettors at least.

After being held under 20 points in each of the first three quarters, the Pistons gave an incredible effort in the fourth outscoring the Cavaliers 32-17.

In the final minute Lebron James provided Cleveland backers with some drama by missing two jump shots, that would have cushioned the 11.5 point spread. With six seconds still left on the clock, Pistons guard Richard Hamilton had an opportunity to cover but missed an open three pointer in the corner.

Cavaliers won 94-82 covering the spread by half a point. With the actual game already loss, Pistons bettors questioned why Hamilton did not drive in for an open layup instead.

A far more frustrating event occurred in the closing seconds of the Los Angeles Lakers / Utah Jazz game. With the spread at 11 in favor of the Lakers and MVP chants ringing throughout the crowd, Kobe Bryant missed an important free throw after going 8-for-8 previously from the line.

Kobe hit the next freethrow but the Lakers were only up by 10. Instead of running out the clock, Jazz star Deron Williams missed a three pointer giving the Lakers a chance to cover.

Gasol grabbed the rebound, and seeming like the only Laker who cared about the spread, chucked the ball down-court to an open Derek Fisher.

Fisher did not take advantage of the open lane and instead ran out the clock giving the Lakers only a 119-109 victory. Jazz covered by one.

Lakers bettors took solace in the fact that Kobe cares as much about bettors as he does about the fans. Plus bettors have actually made money off of Kobe, while a ten dollar beer costs the same at the Staples Center for a fan, win or loss.

In other action Aaron Brooks hit two circus threes that helped the Houston Rockets cover the six point spread that was in favor of Portland. The Trail Blazers failed to cover for the second straight game only winning 107-103.

All NBA lines were sharp on Tuesday night with all games coming down to the final minute. In the eight opening round games the spread was covered by an average margin of 14.68 points. Vegas has had a more accurate read in the second slate of games as the spread was covered by an average margin of four.

The author is a rookie degenerate gambler who wisely passed on all three NBA games on Tuesday and bet the Canucks at -135 instead. He hopes that telling the news from the gambler's perspective will persuade more fans to bet.

Because honestly the athletes don't care about you so you might as well try and make money off of them, especially in this economy.

A Heckler's Apology to Hawaii's (not Japan's) Kurt Suzuki

Myles Valentin — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 16:51:40 -0400

Over the weekend, I sat in the overpriced "In The Action" seats at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, which placed me within three feet of the visiting team's on-deck circle. Unfortunately, I abused the privilege of sitting so close to the game by making insensitive comments towards Oakland Athletics catcher Kurt Suzuki.

Using distance and my own mixed Asian ethnicity as an excuse, my taunts took on a Japanese theme. Every time he warmed up I called him "Fukudome" or "Ichiro" and even recommended several great sushi places in the downtown area (Ematei is great and is close the stadium).

Most of all, I questioned his Japanese patriotism by asking him why he used the name "Kurt" as opposed to a traditional Japanese name like "Hideki" or "Kristy."

Like a true professional, the Athletics catcher ignored me, but The Jays won that game in extra innings while Suzuki went 0-for-5.

That night, I went straight to the Google machine to find more personal information on Kurt in preparation for the next day of heckling.

To my amazement, I discovered that Kurt was not from Japan, but was actually born and raised in Hawaii. He won a College World Series at Cal Fullerton and speaks with a perfect American accent.

Suzuki did not deserve the treatment I gave him, especially coming from one of his own kind. It's hard enough having to play in a racially insensitive hotbed like Toronto.

Embarrassed by my own ignorance, I gave away my expensive seats for Sunday's game.

So to Kurt Suzuki and all second-generation Asian-American athletes not named "Michelle Wie," my deepest apologies.

Next time I heckle you, I will be sure to use the correct stereotypes: instead of Sushi and Fukodome, I will yell out "Spam" and "John Cho."

Kurt Suzuki began his professional career playing rookie ball in Vancouver, B.C. (another racially insensitive Canadian town), where he was hit by a pitch 12 times, a team high.

The apologetic author is a Diet second-generation Asian-Canadian who has the privilege of sitting behind home plate and courtside at NBA games because of his somewhat insensitive blog post that was later published in a New York Times best-selling book. He does not condone racism of any kind.

Lakers Almost Fail to Cover in Game 1; No Tacos for Fans

Myles Valentin — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 01:43:39 -0400

If the Los Angeles Lakers want to achieve the same type of greatness that North Carolina did during the NCAA Tournament, they are going to have to get their act together. In the first game of their 2009 playoff run, the Lakers defeated the Jazz 113-100, only covering the 12 point spread by one point.

With a 22 point lead at the half, the Lakers showed a total disregard for the point spread, allowing the Jazz to outscore them 33-24 in the third quarter. Thankfully Kobe Bryant bailed out his teammates with an outstanding fourth quarter performance.

The game came down to the final 10 seconds giving Laker bettors heart attacks. After Deron Williams hit a lay up denying the 18,997 fans in attendance two free tacos, Lamar Odom carelessly had the ball stolen by Kyle Korver of all people. Only down by 13, the Jazz had an opportunity to cover. Thankfully Williams, who had already ruined the night, attempted a three point shot that missed, rather than going for an uncontested layup that would have covered the game for the Jazz.

The spread for game two has opened up at 11.5 in favor of the Lakers. During the NCAA Tournament last month the North Carolina Tar Heels covered the spread in all six games. The efforts of all players not named Kobe Bryant during the second half on Sunday night indicates that the Lakers will not even come close to achieving this feat.

With a struggling economy Lakers fans and bettors deserve more from this 75 million dollar team. At the very least two free tacos.

Brandon Lang Warning for NBA Bettors

Myles Valentin — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 03:25:49 -0400

For those who do not know the name "Brandon Lang", he had a movie based on his life as a professional sports handicapper entitled "Two For the Money," which starred the wonderful Matthew McConaughey and Al Pacino.

For those more familiar with Lang, well they are still puzzled as to why Hollywood greenlit a movie on an average handicapper.

One cannot go through a sports gambling message board without running into a thread tracking the record of the "Biggest Name" in the sports handicapping industry.

And at a cost of $129 to subscribe to his picks for seven days, the buyer should beware of the sports betting equivalent to Citibank.

Here are the hard cold facts on Mr. Lang's NBA record in the month of April. Please note that Lang uses a "Dime" system when rating his picks.

Free Picks: 2-4

5 Dime Picks: 3-1

10 Dime Picks: 6-6

15 Dime Picks: 0-1

20 Dime Picks: 0-2

If one had tailed Lang for the month of April in the NBA they would be down -66.55 Dimes.

Other notes:

- Lang was 0-3 in all of his Final Four picks: 50 Dime Villanova, 20 Dime UCONN in the Semis and 50 Dimes on Michigan State in the Finals.

- Lang does claim to be more of a football expert (like in the movie) than anything else, praising his 17-0-2 record in the Super Bowl on his website.

- Baseball and Basketball records seem to be missing from the website.

- 1 year subscription to Lang's picks costs $1,595.

With a declining economy and the NBA Playoffs rolling around, many will be looking for an edge to make money during the first round games. Unfortunately, seeking the paid advice of the biggest name in sports handicapping will be one of them.

* please note all statistical information based on various message boards tracking Brandon Lang's picks, author smart enough not to purchase his picks, but marvels at Mr. Lang's genius at staying in business and getting a movie based on his life.

Forgotten Heroes: 2009 NCAA Tournament All-Cover Team

Myles Valentin — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 07:48:59 -0400

Another college basketball has ended and for the degenerate gamblers such as myself, its time to either cash out your winnings and pay for rent or think of ways to explain to your wife why there is 30 K missing from the baby’s college fund. Hint: blame the economy But without degenerate gamblers no one would remember the efforts of the NCAA Tournament's true heroes such as Martynas Pocius (pictured).

Begin Slideshow

2009 NCAA Tournament All-Point Shave Team and Point Shave Final Four

Myles Valentin — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 08:51:10 -0400

When the final buzzer goes off for tonight’s NCAA Basketball Championship game between Michigan State and North Carolina, CBS will talk of Hansboro and Izzo, but there will be no mention of the true heroes of the NCAA Tournament. The people who actually put in hours of work and sacrifice throughout the entire season…..The Sports Bettors.

Without point spreads, over unders and bracket busters, there is no NCAA Tournament. Sure Hansboro stayed all Four Years for his one shinning moment, but did he spend four days observing line movement and money flow when the point spreads for the first round were put up on Selection Sunday?

With that in mind I would like to present to you the 2009 NCAA Tournament All-Point Shave Team, along with the Point Shave Final Four Teams. Recognizing both excellence and neglect when dealing with the hearts and wallets of sports bettors.

2009 NCAA Basketball All Point Shave Team

F - DeJuan Blair PITTSBURGH

Blair put up decent individual stats during the tournament but just seemed downright lazy on some key plays. Lack of effort when chasing loose balls (most notably against Xavier) combined with Pitt’s horrible 0-4 ATS record ensured a spot for the leader of the Tournament’s top underachievers.

F - Lazar Hayward MARQUETTE

Hayward was Marquette’s top rebounder and he scored 26 points against Utah State (a game in which they failed to cover) but in 2009 he will be most remembered for stepping on the line during a simple inbounds play. Down by two this turnover allowed Missouri the opportunity to cover the 2.5 spread. Marquette finished 0-2 ATS.

G - Zaire Taylor MISSOURI

Down 7 points to UCONN and with the point spread at 6, the Junior from Staten Island missed an open layup at the buzzer that would have covered the game for Missouri.

G - Jermaine Dixon PITTSBURGH

0-3 vs #15 seed Eastern Tennessee, 1-4 vs Oklahoma State, 2-9 vs Xavier and 1-6 vs. Nova. These were the shooting numbers for Dixon, but what put him on the team was his lack of defense on Scottie Reynold’s game winning drive in the Nova game. If Reynolds had been stopped, the game would’ve gone into OT and Pitt could have won and possibly covered the 2 point spread.

G -Gerald Henderson DUKE

Duke’s leading scorer shot an amazing 1 for 14 against Villanova, a game in which the Blue Devils were 2 point favorites. Hmmmmmm? Even in his 24 point performance against Texas he only shot 33%, a game in which Duke failed to cover by three points. Gerald is projected to go in the Top 10 for the upcoming NBA Draft. Duke finished the season 3-5 ATS.

POINT SHAVE FINAL FOUR

Pittsburgh (NATIONAL CHAMPION)
#1 seed finished the season 3-7 ATS. They did not cover the spread once during the NCAA Tournament going 0-4 ATS.

Gonzaga
0-3 against the Spread, two games in which they were 10 point favorites.

UCLA
0-2 ATS in the Tournament, this perennial power was an eight point favorite against Virginia Commonwealth and they almost loss. As for round two the Bruins did not even come close to the +2.5 against Villanova. Score was 89-69.

Louisville
Considered the top overall team, the Big East Champs came into the Tournament with a 21-12 ATS record. They finished the tournament 1-3 ATS failing to cover against such powers as Morgan State and Siena. As 6.5 point favorites against Michigan State, Louisville’s season ended with a 12 point loss.

All-Cover Team to be announced after National Championship game. As of 8:37 AM EST, spread is at -7.5 in favor of UNC with 57% of the money on UNC to cover.

Happy Betting