Bleacher Report - Articles by Dave Fultz

Bears' 2009 NFL Draft: What Jerry Angelo Could Do Following the Jay Cutler Trade

Dave Fultz — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 19:31:14 -0400

Jay Cutler is bringing his 4,000-yard, Pro Bowl-caliber arm to Chicago and suddenly the Bears are being touted as a Super Bowl contender in the NFC.

Cutler came at a high price, though, with the Bears sending three draft picks and quarterback Kyle Orton to Denver in return.

The first questions to come pouring in from Chicago fans after the elation wore off a bit had to do with two main topics: who Cutler will throw to and what does the trade mean for the Bears' 2009 draft prospects?

Most analysts are trying to address both questions with the same answer, thinking that the team will use its second-round pick on a wideout for No. 6 to pass to next season.

With the team's offensive line looking much better after the signing of Orlando Pace, I'm starting to think that way, too.

Now, the first thing you have to understand is that the Bears are not a team that is accustomed to taking risks.

General manager Jerry Angelo has only traded up once before in the draft—to take receiver Justin Gage in the fifth round in 2003—and before the Cutler trade, many in Chicago would have never thought him capable of making such a big move.

With that said, all bets are now off.

It wouldn't surprise me if Angelo traded up in the second round or if he went out and signed a veteran receiver like Plaxico Burress or Torry Holt.

The most likely scenario, however, is that Chicago stands pat and uses the 17th pick in the second round on a wideout.

Last year, wide receiver was the most widely selected position in the draft, with 35 selected overall, but there were none taken in the first round.

There is zero chance that the Bears will get lucky and have the top receivers in this year's draft fall into the second round, so they'll have some decisions to make.

First, let's look at the top receivers available and who will still be around when Chicago is on the clock at No. 49 overall. Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech), Jeremy Maclin (Missouri), and Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland) are the top three wideouts on most draft boards, but all three will likely be selected before the end of the first round.

Kenny Britt (Rutgers), Hakeem Nicks (North Carolina), and Percy Harvin (Florida) are the next three and it's possible that one of them could fall to the Bears at No. 49.

Right now, ESPN's Mel Kiper has the Bears selecting Mohamed Massaquoi from Georgia.

Massaquoi, in my opinion, would be a better selection than Harvin or Nicks because of all the things he represents in one package. Massaquoi is a decent sized receiver at 6'1", 210 pounds, with great toughness and tremendous character who produced in the toughest conference in college football. He can win a jump-ball situation in the end zone and runs above-average routes, but his straight-line speed is only adequate.

Bottom Line

So, with all this said, what are the best and worst-case scenarios for Chicago on draft day?

I think the best-case scenario for the Bears would see them taking Massaquoi with their pick in the second round and then selecting the best players available with their picks later on in the draft.

Chicago has had a lot of success outside the first round with guys like Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, and Matt Forte, among many others.

The worst-case scenario for the Bears would be if there are, for some reason, seven or eight receivers taken before their selection at No. 49 and Angelo feels forced to spend his best draft pick on a lesser receiver just because he wants to fill the position.

Angelo needs to be flexible if the wide receivers he targets are off the board, re-evaluate the guys left, and select the best available player.

If you like my stuff and would like to see any of my previous work, you can check out my résumé and full portfolio at www.DaveFultz.com.

MLB 2009 National League Season Preview

Dave Fultz — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 10:58:19 -0400

This is a column that I wrote for The Daily Illini (Apr. 7, '09). Feel free to check out the full column and our newly redesigned Web site at dailyillini.com.

Click here to read my American League preview.

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Last week, I put out my American League predictions for your reading pleasure and this week, as promised, I’ll go through the National League hopefuls and pick my winners.

To recap last week, I picked Oakland, Detroit and Boston to win their respective divisions and the Yankees to take the wild card. Those predictions were largely based on anecdotal evidence and a small bit of statistical analysis that I did myself.

Baseball Prospectus came out with its Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) projections—predictive analysis based on various statistical factors —this week and, according to them, my predictions were hit and miss.

They did have Oakland taking the AL West by three games and both the Yankees and Red Sox in the playoffs, but they had the Yankees taking the division and Cleveland capturing the AL Central by a handful of games.

Most people who aren’t big into sabermetrics don’t really think much of projections like these, but they have proven to be fairly accurate over the years. PECOTA has picked the vast majority of division winners over the past few seasons, and I’d tend to think that it’ll continue to do so because it’s based on sound analysis, and the system is always tweaked to improve the projections.

That said, I’m going to give you guys the PECOTA projections for the NL and tell you which findings surprised me and which did not.

NL Central: Chicago Cubs

Of course, this one doesn’t surprise me. I would have picked the Cubs in this spot also, but mainly because the Central Division is severely lacking in competition this season.

PECOTA has the Cubs regressing slightly from last season but still winning the most games in the NL (95), scoring the most runs (862) and having the highest team on-base percentage (.347).

The Cubs did, in my opinion, get a little worse over the offseason but not enough to give them trouble in their bid to reach the postseason for a third straight year.

The Brewers are slated to finish second again this season on the strength of their offense, but are hurt greatly by the subtraction of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets from their rotation.

St. Louis is getting a big bump from last year, but PECOTA predicts a slightly anemic offense in comparison to the offensive powerhouse Cubs.

According to PECOTA, Chicago will win the division by a double-digit margin of games and wrap up the division early.

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers would, again, be my pick to take this division, and PECOTA seems to think the same thing. It’s projecting a much closer race than that of the NL Central, but the Dodgers pitching puts them over the top.

The Dodgers are projected to allow the least runs in the league (710), score the third most runs (820) and tie for the third-best on-base percentage (.342). These are very good numbers for a team that didn’t score a lot of runs in the first half of 2008.

PECOTA picks the Diamondbacks to finish second in the NL West and take the league’s wild card. While I also see them finishing second in the division by a wide margin over Colorado and San Diego, I think the wild card will almost certainly come out of the NL East in ’09.

NL East: New York Mets

Both PECOTA and I have the Mets taking the NL East crown this season. This team should have won its division in each of the past two seasons but suffered terrible collapses because of an utterly awful bullpen.

This area has been much improved for the ’09 campaign with the additions of closer Francisco Rodriguez and setup man J.J. Putz. Both of these pitchers had tremendous 2008 campaigns, and the Mets paid a premium to improve their biggest weakness from a year ago.

PECOTA has both the Braves and Phillies slated to win 87 games, and I also think that both will be that good. I’m wavering between the two of them in my choice for the NL Wild Card, but in the end, I think the Braves’ pitching will help them edge out the Phillies in the end.

Arizona may be the right choice here, as PECOTA predicted, but I think the Diamondbacks’ young offense will have just enough trouble to give Atlanta the opening to steal the last playoff spot in the NL.

As I always say, predictions often mean little once the season starts, as injuries or trades change the makeup of any given team. That said, it is always best to make predictions with the help of hard statistical analysis, and systems like PECOTA can help you do just that.

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If you like my stuff and would like to see any of my previous work, you can check out my résumé and full portfolio at www.DaveFultz.com.

MLB 2009 Season Preview: American League Edition

Dave Fultz — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:46:57 -0400

This is a column that I wrote for The Daily Illini (Mar. 31, '09). Feel free to check out the full column and our newly redesigned Web site at dailyillini.com.

Click here to read my National League preview.

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With spring training wrapping up and Opening Day less than a week away, it's probably about time for my obligatory preseason predictions column. We'll have the American League edition for this week, and my picks for the National League will come next week.

I always preface columns like this one by saying that predictions of any kind—when it comes to baseball—are largely useless because one midseason acquisition or season-ending injury can make or break a season for any team or player.

That said, it never stops me from making predictions (however silly they might be) because readers of the sports page always enjoy prediction columns.

Now that I've gotten my little disclaimer out of the way, we'll look back at some of the ridiculous predictions I made last season. I only picked a couple of the division winners right, but a couple of my picks were playoff teams, they just had to capture the wild card to get there.

It's probably safe to say that the worst of my predictions last year were those that had anything to do with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers were an abject failure of a team last season, despite the fact that they looked so promising in the spring.

I picked Miguel Cabrera to win the AL MVP and Justin Verlander to take home the league's Cy Young Award, and both were terrible (by their standards) in the first half of the season.

Now, a sane person wouldn't let the team that screwed him so badly last season do it again by picking them to do well for a second straight year. Would he?

AL CENTRAL: Detroit Tigers

A sane person probably would not, but apparently I would. I'm torn between whether Cleveland or Detroit will come out on top here, but I'm going to give the edge to the Tigers. Detroit just has too much talent to ignore, and some of its key players came around in the second half last year.

Cleveland will again have strong pitching and added a great arm in closer Kerry Wood, but if Travis Hafner continues to regress as seriously as he has over the last two seasons, the Indians will have real trouble scoring runs.

Chicago and Minnesota have been at, or near, the top of this division for so long, but unless they have big contributions from a couple of key youngsters, they will find themselves sliding a bit down the food chain. This division is one of the toughest in baseball to pick, but I'm going to (nervously) go with the Tigers.

AL WEST: Oakland A's

This division could very easily go to the Angels again, but I've got Oakland making a big push this season and taking advantage of a Los Angeles team that has regressed from its impressive '08 campaign.

The Angels basically walked to 100 wins last year because this division was so weak, but they lost quite a bit of talent in the offseason and the A's will be much improved.

Oakland brought in slugging outfielder Matt Holliday, among others, while the Angels lost Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez to the New York teams during free agency.

With Teixeira slugging it out for the Yanks and K-Rod closing games for the Mets, the Angels are left without two of their key performers from a year ago.

It'll likely be a tight race at the top, with Seattle and Texas fighting it out for last place, but I think the Angels are going to fall just enough for Oakland to take advantage and steal the division crown from atop their heads.

AL EAST: Boston Red Sox

This is always the toughest division in baseball to pick because the competition is so good, but I'm going to go with the Red Sox again this year. Two teams from this division will make the playoffs again in '09, it's just a matter of which two.

Boston had one of the best offenses in baseball again last season, and this team is built for the long haul. General manager Theo Epstein has the team stocked again, and they'll have payroll flexibility to add a piece or two midseason if they need to fill a hole.

The Yankees went out and spent big to add big arms in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and also got a big bat in Teixeira, but they'll have to contend with the Rays if they want to make it back to the postseason.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm of the mind that Tampa Bay will be the odd team out this season. Repeating what they did in '08 won't be easy.

These are my picks for the AL, come back soon for the NL preview.

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If you like my stuff and would like to see any of my previous work, you can check out my résumé and full portfolio at www.DaveFultz.com.

For Love of the Game

Dave Fultz — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 18:43:31 -0400

With baseball’s opening day upon us, I’ve been thinking a lot about what it means to love the sport and the greatness that comes with it. Baseball is the sport that mirrors life the most, beginning anew each spring and not ending until the last leaves have fallen from the autumn trees.

And just like life, one thing is always true in sport: immortality can be won or lost in the blink of an eye, but true greatness lives on forever.

Fans are often trapped in a modern landscape that has had to discuss steroids in baseball more than the World Series, a referee scandal more than the NBA Finals, and Michael Vick more than the Super Bowl.

This truth is, the result of a lot of little things have added up to create a world in which athletes no longer play a game, but work in a business.

Most days, the news cycle is filled with contract talks and controversy, instead of box scores and ball games.

We all know the reality is that the world of sports is a business and a very lucrative one at that. Everyone wants their piece of the pie, and who can blame them?

Sportswriters like me aren't really that different. We sensationalize events, stories, and whatever else to sell newspapers and advertisements, and collect a paycheck, just like everyone else.

So I'm not trying to preach to athletes, owners, my colleagues, the fans, or anyone else when I write this column. I'm just trying to remind everyone why we love these games so much.

As adults, it is easy to remember what numbers like 61, 100 and 46 meant to us as we were growing up, but it may not be as easy for kids today. With our collective attention focused on scandal, we might have forgotten to teach them about Mantle and Maris in 1961, Wilt's 100, and the Bears' 46 defense.

Before I was nine, I knew the greatness of names like Ernie Banks, Michael Jordan, and Dick Butkus because I was taught to understand and respect sports for what they used to be: a game, a competition, and a source of pride.

Too many times, I turn on the TV or open the newspaper to a story that distracts from what I learned years ago. I think younger fans need to be given the chance to enjoy the wonder of a sport that I found as a kid, for at least a little while, don't you?

That's why we need to teach them about sportsmanship, loyalty, pride, and all of the glory that comes with it on the field.

We need to teach them about Babe Ruth, and how his 1921 season changed baseball forever.

They should listen on in amazement when you tell them the 59 home runs the Babe hit that year surpassed the totals of eight other teams. They should understand that he set records that year for runs, extra-base hits, and total bases that still stand today, despite the best efforts of those who made the Steroid Era what it was.

We need to teach them about Wilt Chamberlain, Magic and Kareem, Larry Legend, and the Celtics Dynasty.

They need to learn what Air Jordan meant before it was a brand name.

And they need to know why every kid in my generation grew up wanting to be "like Mike." It was because he wanted to win more than anyone else, and not because he made more money than everyone else.

We should talk about Johnny U, Montana and Rice, and the Steel Curtain.

Kids need to understand that the warriors who took the field on Sundays in years past would do so with a broken back, if it meant their team would gain one more yard.

We need to teach them that pride comes from perspiration and not compensation. They need to know there is value in sacrifice and honor, and there is more to gain from the world than fame and fortune.

So much of the world gets lost under controversy that we tend to forget why we love something in the first place.

So if the news of the last few years has distracted you from the true greatness of the sport and what it can teach all of us, I'm just trying to say that you shouldn't let it.

All you need to do to remember is toss the pigskin around for an afternoon, shoot jumpers in the driveway, or have a game of catch.

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If you like my stuff and would like to see any of my previous work, you can check out my résumé and full portfolio at www.DaveFultz.com.