Bleacher Report - Articles by Jeremy Wark

The Easy 3-Step Plan to Rebuild Leafs Glory

Jeremy Wark — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 09:47:48 -0500

Three steps? Really, that's it? Somehow I thought it would take longer.

Follow along and see how easy rebuilding a franchise can be.

Step 1

Trade one or all of the following players for quality first and second round selections in the 2009 draft. Antropov, Ponikarovsky, Stempniak, Grabovski, Van Ryn and potentially Toskala.

If there is any interest, the following can be traded for lesser draft choices: Stajan, Mayers, Moore, White and Joseph.

If Jason Blake can increase his tradeability, then he must be traded at any cost.

Every player on this list has a very reasonable cap hit after the trade deadline (with the exception of Blake) and all have had periods of exceptional play (with the exception of Joseph).

Step 2

In the absence of a lottery selection, you must trade up as often as possible in order to select the most talented of the group. This is the Leafs opportunity to load up on potential talent and they need to take full advantage. They'll need at least 4-5 selections in the first two rounds of the draft. We're looking for players with leadership qualities and high-end scoring talent.

Step 3

Use some of the cap-space created in step one, and sign a top-line centre and a scoring winger. Short term, high dollar deals are fine so long as they don't include a "no-trade clause." In the absence of legitimate top line free agents, the Leafs should sit back and wait for the inevitable squeeze of mid-tier free agents and fill any roster holes with cheaper, short-term solutions.

Each step is made possible by it's predecessor and no steps can be missed. If the stars align, each step can create an opportunity to succeed in the next.

Look up, here's my blue-sky rebuild. (~Cue wavey lines and elevator music~)

~Step 1~

Burke trades Antropov, Ponikarovsky and Van Ryn at the deadline and collects three picks in the first two rounds of the draft. Burke finds a taker for Blake and in return takes a player with a shorter contract and/or a manageable buyout. Jamal Mayers, Dominic Moore and Ian White are traded for depth selections in the third and fourth round of the draft.

~Step 2~

The Leafs win the draft lottery and manage to trade up to another midround selection in the first round. In all they make five selections in the first two rounds including first overall.

~Step 3~

Burke signs a top-line centre and left winger. Both are capable of putting up 80-90 points and both agree to sign front-loaded, long-term deals with the Leafs. Antropov resigns in the offseason. Any holes in the bottom six forwards are filled with young players and tough/gritty free agent signings.

CLAP-CLAP!

Just like that the Leafs are no longer in playoff purgatory, and can legitimately ice a team with the types of game-breakers we've been missing since they printed sweaters with names like Clark and Gilmour. I wouldn't make any promises of playoff glory, but there is no reason to think that the team would need to sink any further in order to "rebuild." They'd have the talent to compete now and a window of opportunity would open toward a steady push for the Stanley Cup, something that's been missing since the lockout.

Why the Toronto Marlies Will be a Key to Any Future Maple Leafs' Success

Jeremy Wark — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 17:53:45 -0500

The one legacy that John Ferguson Jr. left that must be admired has to be the move to relocate the "Baby Leafs" from St. John's Newfoundland back to the GTA. It was a tough decision, but in a salary-capped league, it will prove to be the right one.

This discussion is not about fan support or team revenues, as St. John's was a wonderful supporter of the Leafs' prospects and they played in a great facility. It will focus on the benefits of having a farm team so close to the Air Canada Centre.

It's obvious that having your prospects at arms length is an ideal for NHL GM's and their scouts. They can scout the AHL in their own backyard, call-ups are a cab-ride away and from a player perspective, they're living in a "big city".

But beyond the obvious, you've got salary cap implications, health/medical implications, training/rehab implications and potential opportunities for free agents.

From a salary cap perspective, the Leafs now have the luxury of carrying close to the minimum playing roster for half the season. For home games, they can reasonably get away with a 20-man roster (assuming they're injury free), saving at least a league minimum salary but probably closer to $1 million per season. Whoopee right?

But consider that come the trade deadline every $1 million in cap space is worth about $5million in terms of player value. An extra million at the trade deadline means space to absorb an average NHL contract, every cap dollar saved beyond that could be the difference between trading for a Robert Lang as opposed to a Joe Thornton at the deadline.

Since the lockout, there are plenty of NHL free agents who increasingly cannot find a NHL job, or are unwilling to resign with a team offering a two-way deal. If I'm a borderline NHL talent and am being forced to consider playing in the AHL on a two-way deal, Toronto suddenly becomes a very nice option.

Not only is the opportunity to make your case to be on the NHL roster literally just down the street, but you're living in a metropolitan city. You've got all the amenities of your NHL counterparts including training/medical/rehab facilities.

The Leafs and Marlies are now the responsibility of Brian Burke. While the salary cap implications won't likely be a factor for at least the next few seasons, but I'll bet that Burke starts to use the Marlies to great advantage over the term of his contract. He likes his NHL "plumbers", guys who can play in your bottom six forwards and your bottom defence pair.

With the Marlies within earshot, Burke has a team that will not only be the proving grounds for his draft picks, but should allow him to keep at least a couple of sets of forwards hungry for the NHL.

Brian Burke: Was His Cup Win a Fluke?

Jeremy Wark — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 04:41:56 -0500

Brian Burke has a Stanley Cup ring, that much is true. He assembled an Anaheim team in 2006-07 that finished fourth in the league with 110 points and cruised past the Ottawa Senators in five games.

Word is, Burke happened upon a fortunate situation when he was hired. The Ducks had reached the finals in 2002-03 and were building a nice core of young talent. Burke was "lucky" to step into Bryan Murray's vacated GM role and make the final roster tweaks to push the Ducks toward a Stanley Cup.

The truth about Murray's tenure as Ducks GM (2002-03) is this.

2001-02: The Ducks finished 24th in the league, missed the playoffs, and drafted Joffrey Lupul seventh overall.

2002-03: The Ducks finished 11th in the league, lost in the finals to the Devils in seven games, and drafted Ryan Getzlaf (19th overall) and Corey Perry (28th overall).

2003-04: The Ducks finished 22nd in the league, missed the playoffs again, and drafted Ladislav Smid ninth overall.

For the record, that's two of three seasons out of the playoffs and two top 10 draft picks.

Of course the Cup Finals appearance was a great accomplishment on Murray's short Duck tenure, but even then it was considered a "Cinderella run". A young goalie named Jean-Sebastien Giguiere took home the Conne Smyth trophy after losing in the seventh game to Martin Brodeur and the Devils.

Take a close look at the team Murray took to Game Seven of the Cup finals and you'll see names like Kariya, Oates, and Sykora alongside names like Rucchin, LeClerc, and Thomas. Despite playing 21 games (including a seven-game finale), none of the players were amongst the top 10 playoff scorers. The leading goal getter was veteran centre Steve Rucchin.

On the surface, Murray's draft record with the Ducks looks very impressive, particularly the drafting of Getzlaf and Perry in 2003. Fact is, any team not named the Rangers or Leafs drafted at least one core player in the first two rounds of the generational 2003 draft. Take a look at the draft and find me more than a handful of players in the first 50 picks of the 2003 draft that haven't had a significant impact on their team.

So with this in mind, I'll ask you which GM was "luckier", the one with the Cup Ring or the one with the Cinderella run?

The one whose team had two top 10 draft picks during his tenure, and managed to select Getzlaf/Perry in the bottom half of the first round or the one who traded those two top 10 draft picks to create the best defence pairing in the league?

While not all of Burke's GM moves turned into gold for the Ducks, a Cup Ring is hard to argue with. Yes, every team requires luck to be on their side, but luck alone will not win it all.

As a side-note, I'd also like to point out, that any fan who complains about being in "cap hell" a season after a Cup win, doesn't deserve a championship team. There is no winning formula to capture a Stanley Cup in a salary-capped league other than getting as much talent as you can within your limits.

Winning teams will often find it hard to keep a talented team together, as you simply cannot keep talented players from earning their prime dollars.

Tomas Kaberle: Did Cam Janssen's Hit Change His Game?

Jeremy Wark — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 06:53:12 -0500

March 2, 2007 may not seem that long ago, it was the night that the Maple Leafs rolled into New Jersey for their 3rd of four meetings during the 2006-07 season. It was also the night that Cam Janssen decided to provide the Maple Leafs best defender with a late hit to the head. A hit that knocked Kaberle in the boards, unconscious, and out of the line-up for three weeks.

The Leafs were obviously worried about his condition; the immediate prognosis was a concussion and neck/back spasms. As with any neck/head injury that results in a concussion, it is difficult to estimate the severity and therefor the expected repercussions on the player.

Kaberle returned to action on March 23rd @ Buffalo, stepping right back into 20+ minutes of ice-time and recorded a power-play assist (to McCabe) in a 5-4 loss to the Conference winning Sabres. He went on to provide two goals and nine points in the final nine games of the season, including two assists in the final game vs. Montreal. On the season, he finished with 11 goals and 58 points, still tops on his team and top 10 in the league.

This is where the argument begins. Has Kaberle's game changed since the hit? Has his level of play and therefor his effectiveness on the ice been adversely affected?

Let's check the facts.

Since the hit, Kaberle has posted yet another 50+ point season (2007-08) and is on his way to another this season (2008-09). His skating and vision appear to be unaffected and his aversion to physical play - well let's just say he's been able to avoid big hits most of his career.

Sceptics will announce that Kaberle's numbers have slipped, trending down from a peak of 67 pts in the first season back after the lockout, to 53 pts in 2007-08.

My response has been that two things have had a more profound effect on Kaberle than the Cam Janssen hit.

Paul Maurice
Pavel Kubina

Kaberle was on the ice for almost 30 minutes per game in 2005-06, under the coaching of Pat Quinn. He was also the benefactor (and quarterback) of the league's 2nd most potent powerplay and managed an astonishing 45 powerplay assists (many toward a league best 107 powerplay goals). With the promoting of Paul Maurice and his team of assistants in 2006-07, the Leafs powerplay sunk to league average (under 18% proficiency), and powerplay goals simply dried up.

Kubina was also signed the same season, meaning Kaberle's ice-time was reduced to a more manageable 24-25 minutes/game. It also meant that Kaberle wasn't on the ice as much 5-5, now that the Leafs were using McCabe, Kubina, and Kaberle in equal measure.

In my opinion, Kaberle looks every bit the quality defender he has since the lockout ended. He's still a top 10 defender in this league and all at a relative discount against the team's salary cap. His value to the team (and around the league) makes him a valuable commodity and a victim of several trade rumours.

Feel free to discuss amongst yourselves.

Class dismissed, Go Leafs Go!

Maple Leafs Log: A Surprising Start for Toronto

Jeremy Wark — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:27:10 -0500

Approaching the Maple Leafs first quarter of the NHL season, here's another point-form edition of Leafs Log.

1. The team has already had its ups and owns this season, struggling with consistency and occasional lapses in defensive play. I guess the upside is that most of the off-season pundits didn't expect any "ups."

2. The team has been reconfigured to be fast and tough to play against. Ask the Wings, Sens, Canadiens, Rangers and Devils if they expected an easy game against the Leafs.

3. Is it odd? The team was predicted to be strong defensively on the merit of Wilson's systemic coaching, and struggle to pot goals with a lack of forward talent. Instead the team is in the top half of the league in scoring, and the bottom half in goals against and save percentage.

3. Wilson and his assistants have been very steady behind the bench. Sure the special teams still suck—but it looks like the stagnated youth on the team are getting a fresh look and many are responding. The team is playing a spirited brand of hockey, the kind fans don't mind coming out to watch even if it results in a loss.

4. Hagman has been nothing short of brilliant. Sure he hasn't converted on many of the passes fed to him by Habs/Leafs rookie Grabovski—but his attitude on/off the ice has been very positive for the youngsters.

5. Mike Van Ryn (before his concussion) seemed to suddenly become fair compensation for McCabe in the eyes of Leafs sceptics—kudos to Fletcher from those non-believers.

6. Someone wrote this back in March, "I wouldn't be surprised to see Raycroft, McCabe, Blake, Bell, Stajan, and Wellwood in a different jersey come training camp." Not bad.

7. I don't expect Sundin to return to Toronto; I think he's looking for some playoff hockey.

8. Even with their surprising start, I still expect the team to finish in the bottom 10 and out of the playoffs. The team really needs to add some more cheap young scoring talent, and the only way to do it is through the draft.

Thanks for reading, and Go Leafs Go!

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Brian Burke Debate

Jeremy Wark — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 04:48:03 -0400

It was reported today that Brian Burke will not be leaving Anaheim this off-season and will instead complete the final year of his contract with the Ducks. This puts to rest any speculation that Burke would be uprooting his family and moving east in 2008. However, I do not believe it will quell the media's supposition that Burke will abandon his post after this season if the Leafs job is still available.

Seeing as Burke cannot come out and directly speak to his interest in Toronto's vacany , all Brian needs to do is tell the media that he's not interested in talking extension until the end of the 2008-09 season. By doing so, he'd be sending clear signals to the rest of the league that he's interested in other offers.

Meanwhile, Toronto has the option of allowing Cliff Fletcher to continue running the team for a full season. If MLSE (Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment) are serious about luring Burke out of La-la-land, by leaving the position open they are sending their own clear signals without needing permission from Ducks ownership.

That said, I'm not sure that Burke is the be-all end-all solution for the Leafs. He does have the experience, demeanor and Cup ring which make him an attractive option. But for all that must be done to turn the flailing Leafs franchise around, I believe there are at least a few other candidates to consider before essentially putting the 2008-09 season on auto-pilot.

Again, Burke is exactly the type of no nonsense GM that Leafs fans have missed since Pat Quinn was replaced as GM. Namely, a GM that won't take any guff from media, fans or the players themselves. I have to ask any Leafs fan who's getting worked up about the Fabian Brunnstrom "sweepstakes", if they think that a GM like Burke would ever sign an undrafted player based on the players demand for top-6 minutes? I also have to think that Burke would be the last GM in the league to consider using an RFA offer sheet to add some young talent to the line-up. This last point is something I firmly believe the Leafs should consider if they plan to fast track the turnaround of this team.

As for other candidates, we've all heard the list. David Poile (Nashville), Scotty Bowman, Ken Holland or Jim Nill (Detroit), Doug Armstrong (former Dallas GM), Jim Rutherford (Carolina), John Muckler (former Ottawa GM) and Colin Campbell (VP of NHL Hockey Operations). Each of these potential candidates come with their own set of strengths and question marks. Only Bowman or Holland would have the same name recognition as a Brian Burke, but I think guys like Poile or Armstrong have the wits and the smarts to help turn the Leafs around in the short-term. It's my opinion that Leafs fans will know before the NHL entry draft which direction Leafs ownership is heading.

Ottawa Senators: The Great Coaching Gamble

Jeremy Wark — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 10:48:18 -0400

On Februray 27th, Bryan Murray dropped the axe on then coach and good friend John Paddock. There had been controversy with regard to how Paddock had handled Ray Emery as well as a few bumps (a 7 game winless streak and a few of the 3 game variety) after an amazing 15-2-0 start to the season.

Given Ottawa's subsequent drop in the standings and the dire nature of their grip on a playoff spot, I decided to look at the numbers.

Since Murray took over behind the bench the Sens are 6-8-2, 14pts in 16 games with a -9 goal diff.

Similarly (and eerily) in John Paddock's last 16 games before being relieved by Murray, the team was 6-9-1, 13pts in 16 games with a -9 goal diff.

John Paddock was fired after consecutive shutouts to Toronto (5-0) and Boston (4-0). The Sens are on a current scoreless streak against Boston (4-0) and Montreal (3-0) and play their final 2 games against Toronto and Boston.

I guess the question will be, was it worth the gamble? Or was the gamble hiring Paddock in the first place after Murray managed to take the team to the Cup finals in the 2007-08 season?