Bleacher Report - Articles by C Sven Jenkins 60ft6in.com

Rays' Rotation Can Carry Tampa

C Sven Jenkins 60ft6in.com — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 15:17:33 -0400

Despite sitting in 4th place in the American League East with a 37-35 record, the Tampa Bay Rays' season is not over just yet. They have scored the most runs in the AL, and have an expected Win-Loss record of 42-30. Their expected W-L (based on runs scored and runs against) would put them in second place in their division, with the second best record in the AL. This team is still stacked, and still improving. They are about as close as you can be to a complete offensive club. They hit, they run, and they hit for power. The bullpen, an element that carried them at times last season, has obviously struggled at times. But suspect relievers like J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler seem to be turning it around. Lastly, the starting rotation has had it's ups and downs this season, but has shown the ability to be dominant. Let's take a look at who these guys are and what they're doing on the mound....

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Scouting the A's Rotation

C Sven Jenkins 60ft6in.com — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 16:27:32 -0400

Since 2005, Billy Beane and his Oakland Athletics have been auctioning off their best pitchers each season in an attemp to stay young, competitive, and fiscally responsible while playing in the monstrosity that is McAfee Coliseum.

So, with the new season and the Athletics’ starting rotation a bigger question mark than ever, I figured I’d take a look and see what they’re working with now.

Trevor Cahill

At 21, he has already been compared to Brandon Webb. Cahill deals the same type of plus-sinker as Webb--an upper-80s pitch that produces tons of groundball outs.

He also uses a 90-mph four-seamer that he tries to spot early in counts to get ahead. After the fastballs, which he’ll throw the majority of the time, Cahill deals a very soft changeup and two different breaking balls.

His slider has some sweeping action while the curve looks like a plus-pitch, getting good drop at just a few miles per hour slower than the slider.

Unfortunately, Cahill has struggled mightily with his command at the big league level, issuing 15 walks in 20 innings so far. The A’s like to use the excuse that his stuff moves so much, he’s prone to bouts of wildness.

However, all this crazy movement hasn’t produced many missed bats, as he’s notched only seven strikeouts.

Cahill’s knuckle-curve—described as an out pitch by A’s director of player personnel Billy Owens—has been non-existent. I’ve see him use the pitch only a handful of times, and he didn’t throw any breaking balls in his last outing on April 24.

If he can improve his command and mix his pitches better, Cahill could still reach the level expected of him.

Cahill: *sinker (84-89), four-seamer (89-92), changeup (75-78), slider (82-84), curve (77-80)*

Brett Anderson

Like Cahill, Anderson has made the jump from Double-A to the majors in 2009. He has shown good command at all levels of the minor leagues and continues to throw strikes in the bigs.

Anderson uses a good fastball and has the confidence to command it on the inner half of the plate. He’ll then attack hitters with a sharp slurve that he aims at the back ankle of right-handers and sweeps away from left-handers.

His changeup is fairly standard, but he throws it with the same plus-control as the fastball. Anderson mixes in a slow 12-6 curveball as his fourth pitch, usually in the first pitch of an at-bat.

Because Anderson’s stuff is not dominating, he’s been banged around a bit in the major leagues, allowing four home runs in 18 1/3 innings, while only striking out nine. He seems to know what he’s doing on the mound, which will give him a good chance at success.

However, any loss of velocity would spell his doom.

Anderson: *fastball (87-93), slider (79-85), changeup (79-84), curve (73-77)*

Josh Outman

Of the remaining three starters, only left-hander Outman has impressed me.

He throws hard, dealing a fastball in the low-mid 90s. The fastball is fairly straight, but it sets up his sharp slider well. He's also got a big hook that gets decent 11-5 movement, as well as a straight changeup.

His minor league-walk totals are fairly high, which won’t allow him to pitch deep into ballgames, but Outman might be able to make a successful move to the bullpen, where he could be a weapon.

Outman: *fastball (90-96), slider (81-84), changeup (81-84), curve (75-77)*

Dana Eveland and Dallas Braden

My No. 4 and No. 5 guys in the rotation are similar pitchers. They’re both left-handed, both throw in the mid-upper 80s, and were both drafted out of college. They also both have strange first names that start with "D."

I guess the similarities end there though, since Eveland relies heavily on a good slider to get outs, while Braden relies on his soft changeup.

Eveland: *fastball (87-90), slider (80-84), changeup (82-84), curve (75-78)*

Braden: *fastball (85-91), changeup (71-76), slider (76-83), curve (73-74)*

Unless one or two of these guys steps up bigger than I expect, this rotation isn’t going to be posting very many innings. This will put the A’s bullpen under a ton of stress, making it difficult to compete for the division.

[ Read more pitcher scouting reports at 60ft6in.com ]

Mets' 2009 Starting Rotation

C Sven Jenkins 60ft6in.com — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 08:33:00 -0400

Here is 60ft6in.com's look at the Mets' 2009 starting rotation.

I think at this point in the careers of John Maine, Oliver Perez, and even Mike Pelfrey, us Mets fans were hoping the trio would have solidified themselves as reliable major league starters.

Unfortunately, all they've done is solidify the fact that we still don't know how they are going to perform on a given start.

Ideally, Maine is a guy that can post ERA's around 3.00-3.50, with solid strikeout numbers, and throw 200 innings.

The truth is he has trouble missing bats and finishing off hitters. He also issues too many walks, which is especially painful when he's already got two strikes on the batter.

He failed to throw a full six innings in 12 of his 25 starts last season, and only had two starts where he threw at least seven innings.

Maine will be 28 years old this year, and should be in his prime.

I'm actually predicting an improvement for Maine. I think he'll pitch a little more like he did in 2007, and hopefully win a few more games.

But coming off shoulder surgery, and posting awful spring numbers, no one really knows what he will bring this season.

Perez is almost the same pitcher, except when he has his meltdowns, they are Chernobyl-like.

Perez always posts low hit totals and has a good fastball, just like Maine. However, he also has a problem with walks, just like Maine.

After the new coaching staff arrived last year, Perez went on a 13-game stretch where he threw at least six innings in every start. I don't know whether it was Dan Warthen's coaching, or the fact that manager Jerry Manuel allowed him to stay in games and pitch himself out of trouble.

I watched one spring appearance by Perez. His velocity seemed a bit down again, but he looked very relaxed and threw the ball well.

I don't see how anyone could predict anything better than a 4.00 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, as he'll continue to pitch inconsistently.

The Big Pelf had his "breakout" season last year. He reached the 200-inning mark and proved that he could be a horse, at times single-handedly pitching the Mets to victory, including back-to-back complete games in August.

Pelfrey can pound the upper reaches of the strike zone with his four-seam fastball, but usually relies on a very heavy sinking two-seamer.

The downside is, that's all he has.

His slider lacks the necessary movement to get strikeouts, and his change-up actually looks like it has regressed somehow, making him a predictable pitcher who relies on his fastball.

Still, Pelfrey should prove to be the Mets' clear No. 2 starter, behind Johan Santana, and a viable second pitch could make him dominant.

Santana, the best pitcher in baseball over the last five years, anchors the Mets staff.

Despite a loss of about 3-5 mph on his fastball, he still dominates. In a Santana start, you can almost bank on seven innings, seven strikeouts, and two earned runs or less.

There is no reason to think he won't continue to be the ace of the league.

The Mets will start the season with Livan Hernandez as their fifth starter, and while he may not be the best option, he's definitely not the worst.

Hernandez has no velocity left, but he'll try anything to get an out. He throws sinkers, change-ups, sliders, curves, and will vary the velocity or tilt on any pitch. He won't walk a ton of guys either, allowing him to go deep into games.

I actually think Livan will stick in the rotation longer than anyone expects. He might end up in New York all year, outperforming expectations.

Here are the scouting reports for these guys, as published at 60ft6in.com:

Johan Santana, LHP

Santana brings three excellent pitches to the mound. He has a hard fastball in the low-90s ,which he can spot on both sides of the plate. His change-up is known as one of the best pitches in the game; a soft pitch, floating, then sinking under bats as it reaches the plate.

Santana's third pitch is his slider, which gets sharp, late, sweeping action. Santana does not bother to experiment with any other offerings.

In 2007, he saw a significant jump in home runs allowed and seemed to lose a little velocity on his fastball in 2008. However, he has been the best starting pitcher in baseball over the last five seasons, and the Mets expect years of continued success from him.

*fastball(87-95), change(74-85), slider(80-87)

Mike Pelfrey, RHP

Pelfrey has been a strange case so far. He has a great arm and his fastball appears to be a good pitch. He throws moving two-seamers around 92 mph and can pump in a four-seam fastball at 95 mph.

The two-seamer really dives when it's thrown low and to his arm side.

As a top prospect in college, he was known as having a hammer of a curveball. Somewhere along the way he lost that pitch, until halfway through the 2008 season, when he started mixing a few in per game.

Thank you Dan Warthen.

Currently, Pelfrey's main breaking pitch is a below-average slider in the mid-80s, which at times gets good late movement, but most of the time appears to merely spin toward the plate. His change-up actually looked like it regressed last year, as he began to slow down his motion when he delivered it.

Pelfrey's current strategy is to pound his four-seamer in for strikes to try to get ahead, then use his two-seamer to get Ks. He mixes in his other pitches for show only.

*fastball(89-97), slider(81-88), change(80-86), curve(70-80)

John Maine, RHP

Maine changed his approach multiple times during 2008. He always uses good two-seam and four-seam fastballs to get ahead of hitters, but it's his secondary pitches that he needs to tinker with.

He went from being a fastball/slider pitcher, to a fastball/change-up pitcher, and as of last July, he was finally using his entire repertoire in the same game.

Maine's change-up tails considerably to his arm side, making it effective against both left-handers and inside to right-handers. The slider is a very tight pitch that has a tendency to lose bite when he's throwing poorly.

And finally, in his June 30 outing, Maine broke out his old curveball and kept throwing it more and more as the season wore on.

Maine's pitches are difficult to hit and all this sounds great, but he still walks too many batters and has trouble finishing hitters off.

*fastball(87-97), slider(78-89), change(81-88), curveball(75-81)

Oliver Perez, LHP

Perez's stuff always looks good, starting with a fastball around 90 mph from a three-quarter arm angle.

He varies the velocities on his breaking stuff a lot. He uses a sweeping slider between 75-81 mph to get strikouts. When thrown well, the slider will either dive towards the ankles of RHs, or break away from left-handed bats.

Perez has a very slow curveball that he started to use in 2007, dropping that pitch in to mix things up. A splitter is his off-speed offering, a good change of pace that dives under right-handed bats. He rarely uses the split-joint, but he needs to show it more often to keep hitters guessing.

Ultimately, Perez's success will always depend on his suspect command.

*fastball(87-96), slider(75-83), splitter(78-85), curve(63-71)

Livan Hernandez, RHP

Hernandez has regressed to a low-80s fastball and slurvy breaking pitches.

He starts with his fastball, a pitch that gets some sink and tail, but is very hittable. Then he will flip up multiple sliders in the 70s and a curveball that he varies considerably. The curve can be anywhere between 60-71 mph.

Hernandez's fourth pitch is a change-up that he'll show to left-handers.

He gives up tons of hits, but can pitch deep into ballgames when going well.

*fastball(82-87), slider(76-78), curve(61-71), changeup(73)

Mike Mussina Defied His Age, and His Velocity in 2008

C Sven Jenkins 60ft6in.com — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 11:23:26 -0400

Mike Mussina, at 39 years of age, became the oldest first-time twenty game winner in MLB history last season. He posted his lowest ERA since 2001, and the lowest full-season walk total of his career, going 20-9 as the only reliable pitcher in the Yankees’ rotation.

He did all this after an awful 2007 campaign that almost forced him into retirement. Simply put, Mussina was getting rocked. With his fastball velocity down below 90mph, and usually around 85mph, he couldn’t miss a bat. The curveball, Mussina’s best pitch, became worthless if he couldn’t set it up. Mike looked tired, and his face looked pained. An old shoulder will do that to you. Even all the different arm angles he tried didn’t seem to help, there just wasn’t enough zip on his pitches.

Coming into 2008, Mussina was a huge question mark. He won himself a rotation spot, but started the year a little shaky, getting banged around by the Red Sox twice in April. However, Mike earned his second win of the year on April 22^nd in Chicago and never looked back. He was using a lower arm angle to produce an excellent 2-seam sinking fastball around 85mph. The sinker was getting Mussina ahead in counts or inducing quick groundball outs. Then, after his sinker, the 89mph 4-seamer looked like mid-90s heat. His curveball seemed to come back to life, biting hard and late to get Ks. Mike’s multiple arm angles turned his four-pitch repertoire into a six or seven-pitch repertoire, without losing any command.

Here is Mike Mussina’s career scouting report that I previously published at 60ft6in.com:

Mussina ended his career with a fastball that touched 88mph, but got significant movement due to his varied arm angles. In his early years, he threw mostly 4-seamers, but could consistently hit the low-mid 90s. His signature pitch was a good knuckle-curveball. He mixed his arm angles with this pitch too, dropping down to throw it practically sidearm. Moose didn't stop there though, he'd try anything to get an out. He had a little slider which he started relying on more on more, especially inside on LHs. Then he mixed in some straight changes that were really slow. At different times, Mike tried mixing in split-finger pitches, but that pitch never stuck in his repertoire for very long. Mussina had great command of all his pitches and that was likely his best asset. 3/11/09 CSJ

*Late career: fastball(82-90), slider(78-85), curve(61-78), change(65-71), splitter

*Early career: fastball(89-95), curve, change, slider

Mussina finished the 2008 season with six shutout innings in Boston, earning his 20^th win of the season, and the last of his 18-year career.